View Full Version : Real vs Dollar and other currency issues
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To all
Personally I use Oanda.com as a guide because they let me set up a table of favorite currencies which gives me a quick snapshot of currencies that I like to be on top of. They also have a product called a 'cheatsheet' which is pretty cool, gives you a quick table of what popular amounts are worth.
Today (Nov 29, 2007 at 10:30am NY Time) on Oanda is 1.8172 and on xe is 1.79047 so which one is correct? Still only .02 $Real difference. I noticed that XE gives a live 'at market' rate so that might explain the constant changes. I am not sure if ATM rates change as dynamically. Certainly the cambios are not going to change the rate constantly. Maybe once or twice during the day if at all.
I went to a cambio on my last trip and they gave me .01 more than what was listed on the Bloomberg channel on their TV. I think I ended up with 1.75 on a Sunday afternoon. Maybe when the market opened again on Monday, the rate might have gone up but I needed the cash right away so c'est la vie.
Again, if decide to go to Brazil . . . don't stress the small stuff.
Orgasm Donor
12-02-07, 19:45
To all
Again, if decide to go to Brazil . . . don't stress the small stuff.
Dont sweat the petty things, Pet the sweaty things!
Exec Talent
12-04-07, 14:11
In the last 10 days the exchange rate has been up and down between 1.76 and 1.86. Shop around. If you are with a group of guys and want to exchange dollars. Pool your resources and make one large exchange instead of a number of small ones.
Fellow Mongerers,
This posts might belong in a different thread or threads, but it is related to currency exchange so here it is.
I received a letter from a US District Attorney's Office regarding a law suit against Visa, MasterCard, and Diners' Club, and a settlement agreement between them and the Government. It states that these companies overcharged customers for 10 years on foreign transactions using their credit or debit/ATM cards.
Since I have used my ATM card to withdraw money in Brazil during the time period in question and my ATM card uses the VISA system, I was on the list of customers to benefit from the settlement.
I am curious if other guys have received the same notification.
Exec Talent
12-04-07, 17:14
Fellow Mongerers,
This posts might belong in a different thread or threads, but it is related to currency exchange so here it is.
I received a letter from a US District Attorney's Office regarding a law suit against Visa, MasterCard, and Diners' Club, and a settlement agreement between them and the Government. It states that these companies overcharged customers for 10 years on foreign transactions using their credit or debit/ATM cards.
Since I have used my ATM card to withdraw money in Brazil during the time period in question and my ATM card uses the VISA system, I was on the list of customers to benefit from the settlement.
I am curious if other guys have received the same notification.
This is the link that was provided by a poster on another forum.
http://www.ccfsettlement.com/
Yep I got one. The letter provided a refund ID #. It's needed to file a claim.
This is the link that was provided by a poster on another forum.
http://www.ccfsettlement.com/
Thanks, since I live here and depend on flake family to open and actually READ my mail, I did not know about it.
I went to the site, I can fill out the form without the refund ID. Just need number of one card that was included.
I just returned from a fun trip to Brazil. This was my third trip so I have a good idea about the typical scams. I had been telling friends that I usually expect to be scamed in some way but it didn't happen on this trip. Or so I thought. I just used my ATM/Debit card for the first time since returning over a week ago. To my surprise, I am down a ton of money. I called my bank and someone has been withdrawing the maximum amount out of my account daily for the last 10 days or so in Rio. I'm insured so I hope to get back most if not all my money but my time is also valuable. I also feel quite violated.
Here's the details: I used my card almost exclusively at the HSBC branch on Ave. Copocabana near Rua Francisco with the exception of the HSBC branch at the airport and one transaction at a Banco do Brazil ATM. I have been able to find most if not all of my receipts. They show all the digits of my card with the exception of the last 4 digits. Since it is a debit card, I believe it can be used without a PIN but I am not sure. The other receipts from the ATMs in Salvador show all the digits with the exception of the middle digits. I can see how if someone got both receipts, they would be in business. However, since I never returned to Rio after Salvador and all the damage is being done in Rio, I frankly can't figure it out. The card is still in my wallet.
From what I have been told by folks who live in Rio, it is best to bring US dollars and change them at the cambios. I find it hard to believe but they say they now offer better rates than the banks. I have always assumed the HSBC was one of the safer bets for ATM machines but I have no idea how anyone got ahold of my information. Let's hope that when this is all straightened out that I can get some answers and all my money back.
In case you were wondering, the ATM card only came out of the safe when I went to use it.
I have always assumed the HSBC was one of the safer bets for ATM machines but I have no idea how anyone got ahold of my information. Let's hope that when this is all straightened out that I can get some answers and all my money back.
This happened to me last year. They were able to withdraw $R100 because that is all that I kept in my checking account. Here is how I believe it works. My bank concurred.
Thieves alter an ATM by installing a clandestine card reader in it or otherwise syphoning off the card data from the ATM. Since the card has the account number and your PIN, they have everything they need to withdraw funds from your checking account as you would. We need to be sure to use ATMs that show absolutely NO evidence of having been altered or damaged. The theft is not related to the bank that owns the ATM, it is related to the level of supervision over the ATMs themselves. It also might be an inside job, in that the staff that service the ATMs, replenish the cash or keep its internal mechanisms clean and in good repair, might by installing the illegal card readers.
I was lucky in that I keep my checking account balance low and that for international transactions only my checking account can be accessed.
Since it is a debit card, I believe it can be used without a PIN but I am not sure. The other receipts from the ATMs in Salvador show all the digits with the exception of the middle digits. I can see how if someone got both receipts, they would be in business. However, since I never returned to Rio after Salvador and all the damage is being done in Rio, I frankly can't figure it out. The card is still in my wallet.
At least in Europe it's a common scam that they put a small device on the machine that records data from the cards. Then the bad guy picks up the device and starts emptying accounts.
Thanks, since I live here and depend on flake family to open and actually READ my mail, I did not know about it.
I went to the site, I can fill out the form without the refund ID. Just need number of one card that was included.I'm going to do option 2 to avoid giving out my cc#
we should probably start a thread on atm and credit card fraud. crime and safety just does not seem right. Just had my card cloned, after I posted I had been using it for a year without hassle. sigh.. not sure where it was cloned. but they shut off before any fraud charges hit, new card was here in 2 days. so this time no hassle. pain in the butt though.
Exec Talent
12-06-07, 17:51
Keep your eye on the markets and exchange rate over the next week. There will be opportunities for some significant returns.
Update: An article worth reading.
http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/CompanyFocus/7ReasonsToBeBullishNow.aspx
OK. Enough from you guys about me not being willing to help you out.
Keep your eye on the markets and exchange rate over the next week. There will be opportunities for some significant returns.
ET is correct.
I believe the Federal Reserve is meeting on Dec. 11 to announce whether they decided to lower or hold fast the federal funds rate target. Last week there was some speculation that it will lower the target by 25 basis points. If that happens, more downward pressure will be on the dollar and you will see additional declines in the exchange rate against the major currencies. If it holds fast, then the stock market will fall significantly and housing prices will also fall a bit.
At least in Europe it's a common scam that they put a small device on the machine that records data from the cards. Then the bad guy picks up the device and starts emptying accounts.Sperto,
This is probably what happened but I'm not entirely sure. That type of scam was uncovered here in Chicago at a number of ATMs located at gas stations. That is why I never use an ATM unless it is affiliated with a major bank. I am going to make a point of only using ATMs at banks during bank hours from now on. I would recommend to everyone to be very careful when and where they withdrawal money from ATMs and to limit the times they have to withdrawal money. There are a lot of stories about thieves robbing people at gunpoint outside of ATMs in Brazil. In that respect, I consider myself lucky.
The good news is that I was able to get my bank to refund all the stolen funds back into my account within 48 hours of the claim. The fraud withdrawals didn't start until a week after I left Rio and I had just returned back to Chicago. I went into my bank branch with my passport and other evidence. The whole process went much more smoothly than I expected. I guess I shouldn't complain (as much) about the fees my bank charges for foreign transactions!
Sperto,
This is probably what happened but I'm not entirely sure. That type of scam was uncovered here in Chicago at a number of ATMs located at gas stations. That is why I never use an ATM unless it is affiliated with a major bank. I am going to make a point of only using ATMs at banks during bank hours from now on. I would recommend to everyone to be very careful when and where they withdrawal money from ATMs and to limit the times they have to withdrawal money. There are a lot of stories about thieves robbing people at gunpoint outside of ATMs in Brazil. In that respect, I consider myself lucky.
The good news is that I was able to get my bank to refund all the stolen funds back into my account within 48 hours of the claim. The fraud withdrawals didn't start until a week after I left Rio and I had just returned back to Chicago. I went into my bank branch with my passport and other evidence. The whole process went much more smoothly than I expected. I guess I shouldn't complain (as much) about the fees my bank charges for foreign transactions!Howman, DO NOT USE ANY ATM CARDS AT HSBC!!! It is a inside job and the banks involved are the HSBC's near Rua Siqueira Campos, Princess Isabel and the one near Rua Constante Ramos. Many, many people have had their debit and credit cards cloned and funds taken from them using these particular branches. Most of the cards that are cloned were from tourists. Be careful guys.
Keep your eye on the markets and exchange rate over the next week. There will be opportunities for some significant returns.
Update: An article worth reading.
http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/CompanyFocus/7ReasonsToBeBullishNow.aspx
OK. Enough from you guys about me not being willing to help you out.
An update:
The central banks of England and Canada both lowered their short term interest rates last week. The motive was to prevent or forestall slowdowns in their economies due to the low value of the US dollar. Both these countries, especially Canada, export heavily to the US. Their high currencies have reduced their exports and caused recessions in their export industries.
The connection to this thread is that interest rates affect exchange rates. When the US lowers to federal funds target the exchange rate falls. When other countries do the same, the US exchange rate rises. Next Tuesday the Fed is expected to lower the target federal funds rate; some belileve by 50 basis opints, other by 25 basis points, especially after the jobs/unemployment report this week.
So, I don't think there will be many attractive opportunities of the type that ET may be referring to. When countries lower their interest rates by the same amount, nothing changes or happens.
HSBC fucked me over a couple years ago, but since then no problem. Though I usually go to Sendas on miguel lemos, and nossa senhora copacabana or the bank across the street.
Exec Talent
12-09-07, 10:07
Howman, DO NOT USE ANY ATM CARDS AT HSBC!!! It is a inside job and the banks involved are the HSBC's near Rua Siqueira Campos, Princess Isabel and the one near Rua Constante Ramos. Many, many people have had their debit and credit cards cloned and funds taken from them using these particular branches. Most of the cards that are cloned were from tourists. Be careful guys.
I was in the HSBC branch on SC and NS, right beside Zona Sul, yesterday. Two of the ATMs would not accept cards because of what looked like superglue on the slots. Could be that someone had attached a device or someone just damaged the machines because they got ripped off. Just know the machines were unusable.
Exec Talent
12-10-07, 17:12
An update:
So, I don't think there will be many attractive opportunities of the type that ET may be referring to. When countries lower their interest rates by the same amount, nothing changes or happens.
Some people make money with upward market movements. Some make money on downward market movements. Some make money when exchange rates rise. Some make money when exchange rates fall. It is movement that brings opportunities. Call it the bunda movement opportunity theory. When I see a bunda move, I see an opportunity.
Exec Talent
12-17-07, 17:13
The official rate right now is close to 1.80. My friend says he could give me 1.85.
US Tourism is down significantly in Rio right now. Dollars are very much in demand.
UPDATE: The reason I post this information is not, as some small minded people seem to think, to brag about the exchange rate I get, but to let those planning their trips to Rio know that Cambios are paying above the ATM rate. If the margin is significant enough to them, they might consider bringing cash.
UPDATE: After dropping almost 300 points on Dec 11, the DOW was up 200 points at the open on Dec 12. Movement == money. Now do you get it George (not Bush)?
I agree that the market moving upward will yield profits when holding a long position, and that the market moving downward will yield profts when holding a short position. However, the issue under discussion was currency exchange rates, not stock markets.
I hold to my original statement that identical changes in the interest rates of two countries will NOT result in a change in the exchange rate between those 2 countries' currencies, holding all else constant.
It is well known that a change in market interest rate will affect stock market prices. I am not arguing that point.
Alex Deuce
12-17-07, 21:51
I agree that the market moving upward will yield profits when holding a long position, and that the market moving downward will yield profts when holding a short position. However, the issue under discussion was currency exchange rates, not stock markets.
I hold to my original statement that identical changes in the interest rates of two countries will NOT result in a change in the exchange rate between those 2 countries' currencies, holding all else constant.
It is well known that a change in market interest rate will affect stock market prices. I am not arguing that point.
Its in impossibility to hold all else constant as they are coefficients of each other in a sane market! IE.. No fuckery in the books!
Your thinking yourself into illusionality!
Its in impossibility to hold all else constant as they are coefficients of each other in a sane market! IE.. No fuckery in the books!
Your thinking yourself into illusionality!
I don't know how to respond to your statement, Alex. Yes, in the economic world it is impossible to literally hold everything else constant while only one factor changes. However, the concept of holding all else constant while changing only ONE factor at a time is the scientific method and the basis of all human knowledge.
What exactly is the point you are trying to make????
I hope it moves above 2.00 again since it seems like the girls are increasing their rates compared to last year.
The official rate right now is close to 1.80. My friend says he could give me 1.85.
US Tourism is down significantly in Rio right now. Dollars are very much in demand.
UPDATE: The reason I post this information is not, as some small minded people seem to think, to brag about the exchange rate I get, but to let those planning their trips to Rio know that Cambios are paying above the ATM rate. If the margin is significant enough to them, they might consider bringing cash.
Alex Deuce
12-18-07, 15:18
I don't know how to respond to your statement, Alex. Yes, in the economic world it is impossible to literally hold everything else constant while only one factor changes. However, the concept of holding all else constant while changing only ONE factor at a time is the scientific method and the basis of all human knowledge.
What exactly is the point you are trying to make????
Not so, Causality is the basic method of human understanding. I got shocked by lightning; what caused it? This round object rolls better; what causes it to do so? I shoot someone, they die; what caused it? I explore the following and come to a better understanding of the world.
Basic economics are derived of one simple equation; Y=Mx+B (Slope of Line) and or degree of change (Derivatives of known and predictable reactions to movement of independent variables.) It is impossible to change (Y) without M, X or B having a corresponding change. Like 1+1 not being 2
"I hold to my original statement that identical changes in the interest rates of two countries will NOT result in a change in the exchange rate between those 2 countries' currencies, holding all else constant."
IE.... The above statement is illogical given your answer and my above explanation. No existing chart I have seen working for Citibank, Bank of America, Reserve Bank nor State of GA. Shows an Independent Correlative or non determinative relationship between the exchange rate and interest rates IE... Cost/Yield of instruments.
Depending on holding short or long positions in a foreign market Will determine institutions economic predictors for currency based upon the yield of the corresponding currency in that homogeneous environment and the rate in which it costs to acquire said currency. Therefore local demand for a devaluing or low yielding currency will have little affect on current rates long term. Only way for US dollar to significantly increase its value is for Interest rates to increase and productivity to double. IE... <See Regannomics Circa 1987 and "lessons learned" Fed Beige Book Black Monday >
So if your right, Old Ronnie was a bigger Jack Ass than i thought and the Fed been running on some fucked up assumptions for 20 years! Hold up, They have! LOL
Not so, Causality is the basic method of human understanding.
EXACTLY!!!!!!
The way humans confirm causality is to gather ALL the factors that influence a target and change only ONE of those factors while keeping the rest constant. If the target changes value, then it is confirmed that the factor that was changed caused the target value to change.
For example. If the target is the currency exchange rate between the US and Brazil (have to make this dissertation on-topic somehow), factors that influence it are relative interest rates, relative inflation rates, relative productivity rates, the trade balance, and expectations about the future, (among other things). If the US lowers its interest rates while Brazil doesn't, AND ALL the other factors involved remain constant (admittedly difficult without statistical methods), and the result is that the exchange rate between the US and Brazil falls, then it is confirmed that a decline in US interest rates cause a lower exchange rate.
This has been researched by many academics for many decades; they named it the "Interest Rate Parity Theorem". I don't understand the rest of what you wrote.
Alex Deuce
12-18-07, 22:44
EXACTLY!!!!!!
The way humans confirm causality is to gather ALL the factors that influence a target and change only ONE of those factors while keeping the rest constant. If the target changes value, then it is confirmed that the factor that was changed caused the target value to change.
For example. If the target is the currency exchange rate between the US and Brazil (have to make this dissertation on-topic somehow), factors that influence it are relative interest rates, relative inflation rates, relative productivity rates, the trade balance, and expectations about the future, (among other things). If the US lowers its interest rates while Brazil doesn't, AND ALL the other factors involved remain constant (admittedly difficult without statistical methods), and the result is that the exchange rate between the US and Brazil falls, then it is confirmed that a decline in US interest rates cause a lower exchange rate.
This has been researched by many academics for many decades; they named it the "Interest Rate Parity Theorem". I don't understand the rest of what you wrote.
Simple;
People follow the money; IF i get a higher return in the US economy, money flows into US and demand for US dollars increases. I get a low return in US, Money flows out of US economy leading to reduction in demand for US dollar. Take the other derivatives, Guesses, prognostications, and dime store forecast and throw them out the window. Its that simple. Called Parsimony IE.... Keep.It.Simple.Stupid.
If you could not understand the slope of line which is the simplest derivative mathematically I cant help you.Exec Talent is very close in his assumptions. If your going to Rio and going to exchange small sums of money the local establishments will always yield a better rate in todays environment. However, if you have to exchange lets say 10k (Like I had to do.) No local will touch it with a ten foot pole. They can afford to give you a good rate, seeing as how 90% of the time your just going to give it back in the form of drinks, food or clothing.
SanJoseFan
12-20-07, 03:36
This happened to me last year. They were able to withdraw $R100 because that is all that I kept in my checking account. Here is how I believe it works. My bank concurred.
Thieves alter an ATM by installing a clandestine card reader in it or otherwise syphoning off the card data from the ATM. Since the card has the account number and your PIN, they have everything they need to withdraw funds from your checking account as you would. We need to be sure to use ATMs that show absolutely NO evidence of having been altered or damaged. The theft is not related to the bank that owns the ATM, it is related to the level of supervision over the ATMs themselves. It also might be an inside job, in that the staff that service the ATMs, replenish the cash or keep its internal mechanisms clean and in good repair, might by installing the illegal card readers.
I was lucky in that I keep my checking account balance low and that for international transactions only my checking account can be accessed.George you and Sperto are absolutly correct in discussing how this scam works with one addition. I work for a major bank in Canada and ATM fraud has been and continues to be a major problem (globally in the hundreds of millions of dollars per year) The one addition is that the card reader or false front of an ATM machine only captures the information on the magnetic stripe of your debit card. In order to make a copied card work the bad guy also needs a PIN number this is usually recorded by a camera mounted somewhere in the ATM vestabule or even held by someone across the street that films the PIN number being punched into the mahcine. We have been incouraging our customers to make sure to shield the hand they use to enter their pin number by placing their other hand over the top. Also where possible try to change your PIN number as frequently as possible, newer generations of ATM machines will allow you to change the PIN number right at the machine but only if you are using the machine of the bank that issued your card. When I was in Rio in November no machine I came acrosss seemed to have this additional feature as yet.
You also mentioned a very good idea of keeping the balance low in the account you are planning to access internationally, we suggest this as a fraud prevention method. To transfer money we suggest you use your banks internet banking platform and that the ISP you use must have at least 128 bit encryption protection. This means in the event of a cloned card the vast majority of your funds remain protected and out of the bad guys reach.
Hope some of this helps.
I hope it moves above 2.00 again since it seems like the girls are increasing their rates compared to last year.With the rate at 1. 80 right now there are many cambios giving 1. 85 and some even more. Try Ben bros on rua silvera or the jewelry store around the corner from him. They always give good rates on the dollar.
Also guys if you have a good brazilian friend that you can trust let him exchange your money for you. The brazilians get a better rate than foreigners.
I was in the HSBC branch on SC and NS, right beside Zona Sul, yesterday. Two of the ATMs would not accept cards because of what looked like superglue on the slots. Could be that someone had attached a device or someone just damaged the machines because they got ripped off. Just know the machines were unusable.They block up the slots so you will use the ones with the cloning devices attached to them.
I hope it moves above 2.00 again since it seems like the girls are increasing their rates compared to last year.I doubt if we'll see 2. 00 anytime soon unless the U. S. Economy gets a big boost from the Christmas season. As far as the girls raising their prices we have only ourselves to blame for that monster. As long as there are guys paying the crazy prices the girls will continue to raise their prices. Hardcore gdps are never satisfied. If a gdp got a guy for 5000R she would still ask for 10R taxi fare as she left his apartment. Its in their nature to always ask for more because they assume that any guy who pays 100, 150, 200 dollars for what amounts to the most plentiful and thus what should be the cheapest commodity in Brazil (SEX) must be rich.
George you and Sperto are absolutly correct in discussing how this scam works with one addition. I work for a major bank in Canada and ATM fraud has been and continues to be a major problem (globally in the hundreds of millions of dollars per year) The one addition is that the card reader or false front of an ATM machine only captures the information on the magnetic stripe of your debit card. In order to make a copied card work the bad guy also needs a PIN number this is usually recorded by a camera mounted somewhere in the ATM vestabule or even held by someone across the street that films the PIN number being punched into the mahcine. We have been incouraging our customers to make sure to shield the hand they use to enter their pin number by placing their other hand over the top. Also where possible try to change your PIN number as frequently as possible, newer generations of ATM machines will allow you to change the PIN number right at the machine but only if you are using the machine of the bank that issued your card. When I was in Rio in November no machine I came acrosss seemed to have this additional feature as yet.
You also mentioned a very good idea of keeping the balance low in the account you are planning to access internationally, we suggest this as a fraud prevention method. To transfer money we suggest you use your banks internet banking platform and that the ISP you use must have at least 128 bit encryption protection. This means in the event of a cloned card the vast majority of your funds remain protected and out of the bad guys reach.
Hope some of this helps.
Excellent post, SanJoseFan.
I am travelling for the holidays and will change my PIN when I return. I am also going to be more aware of any possible camera sights and cover my PIN entry with a newspaper or something similar. I will also avoid ATM lobbies that some machines made unusable. That is a sign to me that the scam artists have struck that place.
Thanks.
JohnnyBraz
12-21-07, 08:10
Excellent post, SanJoseFan.
I am travelling for the holidays and will change my PIN when I return. I am also going to be more aware of any possible camera sights and cover my PIN entry with a newspaper or something similar. I will also avoid ATM lobbies that some machines made unusable. That is a sign to me that the scam artists have struck that place.
Thanks.Just to correct you on that, also if some one is watching the atm, and places a dust or substance on each key, it narrows it 2 4 x 4 chance, plus a camera. They then get your pin, plus change and activate.
They block up the slots so you will use the ones with the cloning devices attached to them.I wanted to thank everyone who has contributed information about ATM protection! These recent posts have some very usefull information on how to avoid getting ripped off. I was able to get all my funds back to my account but it would have been a real pain had the fraud occurred while I was still in Brazil.
The process to get my money back at my bank in the States was pretty easy. They still wanted me to get a police report from the police in Rio. "Yeah, sure, no problem! I'm sure they'll have someone who will cooperate and speak english. " "Mr. Banker, where you aware that about half the 1500 murders in Rio last year were caused by the police? " He replied, "We'll have your funds in your account by tomorrow morning. "
Thanos, I believe your description is exactly what happened to me. There are 4 ATM machines at the HSBC on Rua Copacabana. While all the machines seemed to be in service, only 1 machine would allow me to put my card in, the one furthest from the door. Be careful, everyone!
I wanted to thank everyone who has contributed information about ATM protection! These recent posts have some very usefull information on how to avoid getting ripped off. I was able to get all my funds back to my account but it would have been a real pain had the fraud occurred while I was still in Brazil.
The process to get my money back at my bank in the States was pretty easy. They still wanted me to get a police report from the police in Rio. "Yeah, sure, no problem! I'm sure they'll have someone who will cooperate and speak english. " "Mr. Banker, where you aware that about half the 1500 murders in Rio last year were caused by the police? " He replied, "We'll have your funds in your account by tomorrow morning. "
Thanos, I believe your description is exactly what happened to me. There are 4 ATM machines at the HSBC on Rua Copacabana. While all the machines seemed to be in service, only 1 machine would allow me to put my card in, the one furthest from the door. Be careful, everyone!If ever you do need a police report there is a tourist police station in leblon across the street from the huge samba dance hall. Its set up specifically for tourist complaints and they will help you fill out a police report.
With the rate at 1. 80 right now there are many cambios giving 1. 85 and some even more. Try Ben bros on rua silvera or the jewelry store around the corner from him. They always give good rates on the dollar.
Also guys if you have a good brazilian friend that you can trust let him exchange your money for you. The brazilians get a better rate than foreigners.I've stayed at the Renaissance Hotel and they have a exchange bank which gives you the makret rate of the day.
I've stayed at the Renaissance Hotel and they have a exchange bank which gives you the makret rate of the day.The market rate of the day is only going to be what the banks are giving. the cambios usually give 3-5 cents more on the dollar than whatever the market rate is.
The market rate of the day is only going to be what the banks are giving. the cambios usually give 3-5 cents more on the dollar than whatever the market rate is.Sorry I don't know what cambios are? Is there one in Jardins?
Sorry I don't know what cambios are? Is there one in Jardins?Cambios are like exchange banks set up in storefronts. they are all over .most Brazilian travel agencies double as cambios and if you're in the copa area alot of the jewelry stores are cambios as well. if you're in the jardin botanaco area you should be able to find a cambio on the main street near Solarium.
Sunset Strip
12-23-07, 21:34
Money exchange centers=cambios
Cambios are like exchange banks set up in storefronts. they are all over .most Brazilian travel agencies double as cambios and if you're in the copa area alot of the jewelry stores are cambios as well. if you're in the jardin botanaco area you should be able to find a cambio on the main street near Solarium.They do this because they think the dollar to rise again?
Sunset Strip
12-26-07, 21:14
http://www.foxnomad.com/2007/10/02/the-best-places-to-travel-on-a-weak-dollar/
This article is from October. I am not so sure about Venezuala based on reports from this site. I think the mention of Brazil makes since given you CAN do well here depending on what you do!
TJ
They do this because they think the dollar to rise again?They've been doing this for decades, but yes they hold onto the dollars thinking they will rise again.
They've been doing this for decades, but yes they hold onto the dollars thinking they will rise again.I certainly hope so too, today its at 1.76 almost all time high.
They do this because they think the dollar to rise again?There are many busineses that use dollars for their purchases. Also, people that travel to the US or Europe need to convert (Try converting reals to dollars in the US at your local bank sometime, for a real rude lesson! ). Travel agencies and jewelry stores are two examples of companies that are purchasing products, travel and jewelery abroad. Most international companies quote in dollars or Euros.
If you live in Brasil, and need dollars for travel or international trade, you need to convert your reals. Banks makes a percentage on each side of the deal, conversion from dollars to reals, and then from reals to dollars. Plus, there are frequently service charges. You can see this by looking at the foreign currency booths at the airport. If you would convert dollars to reals, then convert back, you would lose about 10%. (I know, those airport kiosks are the worst deal. Just using as an example).
So, a "cambio" (jewelery store, travel agency or? ) that needs to convert reals to dollars, can offer you a better rate than the bank, and still get more dollars/reals, than going to the bank. Basically, it is cutting the middle-man, the bank, out of the transaction.
As someone who has been to both countries it's too bad the Argentina P4P scene is so weak IMHO relative to Brazil as Argentina's currency has been relatively stable vs the dollar.
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Brazil's Real Has Biggest Annual Gain Among Major Currencies
By Adriana Brasileiro and Ye Xie
Dec. 28 (Bloomberg) -- Brazil's real advanced the most among major currencies versus the dollar this year, buoyed by the fastest economic growth in three years and record exports of products such as orange juice, steel and commercial jet planes.
The real soared 20 percent to 1.7760 per dollar, its fifth straight annual advance and its biggest since a 22 percent rally in 2003. The real outperformed the 15 other most-traded currencies against the dollar this year.
``The real is an exceptional story,'' said Rafael de la Fuente, chief Latin America economist at BNP Paribas SA in New York. ``You have trade improvement and continued improvement in the economy.''
Brazil's currency fell 0.9 percent today, cutting its advance this week in half. Other Latin American currencies also rallied this year as their commodity exports rose. Colombia's peso jumped 11 percent while Chile's peso gained 7.1 percent and the Peruvian sol rose 6.7 percent. Mexico's peso dropped 0.8 percent on the year and Argentina's peso slid 2.8 percent.
Brazil's economy expanded more than 5.5 percent in the past two quarters, fueled by two years of interest-rate reductions by the central bank. Policy makers have trimmed the benchmark lending rate 8.5 percentage points since 2005 to 11.25 percent to spur bank lending and growth in consumer demand.
That benchmark rate remains one of the highest in the world, luring capital to the country's fixed-income market. A 44 percent rally in the benchmark Bovespa stock index also stoked demand for reais.
Central Bank Purchases
``You have attractive yields,'' de la Fuente said. ``You had lots of IPOs, attracting massive inflows.''
The central bank bought U.S. dollars in the currency market today as part of an effort to slow the real's rally. The bank purchased dollars at 1.7660 apiece in an auction today.
The yield on Brazil's benchmark zero-coupon bonds due in January 2008 fell 1 basis point, or 0.01 percentage point, today to 11.12 percent, according to Banco Votorantim SA. The yield has dropped more than 1 percentage point from 12.43 percent at the end of 2006.
To contact the reporter on this story: Adriana Brasileiro in Rio de Janeiro at abrasileiro@bloomberg.net
As someone who has been to both countries it's too bad the Argentina P4P scene is so weak IMHO relative to Brazil as Argentina's currency has been relatively stable vs the dollar.
----------
Brazil's Real Has Biggest Annual Gain Among Major Currencies
By Adriana Brasileiro and Ye Xie
Dec. 28 (Bloomberg) -- Brazil's real advanced the most among major currencies versus the dollar this year, buoyed by the fastest economic growth in three years and record exports of products such as orange juice, steel and commercial jet planes.
The real soared 20 percent to 1.7760 per dollar, its fifth straight annual advance and its biggest since a 22 percent rally in 2003. The real outperformed the 15 other most-traded currencies against the dollar this year.
``The real is an exceptional story,'' said Rafael de la Fuente, chief Latin America economist at BNP Paribas SA in New York. ``You have trade improvement and continued improvement in the economy.''
Brazil's currency fell 0.9 percent today, cutting its advance this week in half. Other Latin American currencies also rallied this year as their commodity exports rose. Colombia's peso jumped 11 percent while Chile's peso gained 7.1 percent and the Peruvian sol rose 6.7 percent. Mexico's peso dropped 0.8 percent on the year and Argentina's peso slid 2.8 percent.
Brazil's economy expanded more than 5.5 percent in the past two quarters, fueled by two years of interest-rate reductions by the central bank. Policy makers have trimmed the benchmark lending rate 8.5 percentage points since 2005 to 11.25 percent to spur bank lending and growth in consumer demand.
That benchmark rate remains one of the highest in the world, luring capital to the country's fixed-income market. A 44 percent rally in the benchmark Bovespa stock index also stoked demand for reais.
Central Bank Purchases
``You have attractive yields,'' de la Fuente said. ``You had lots of IPOs, attracting massive inflows.''
The central bank bought U.S. dollars in the currency market today as part of an effort to slow the real's rally. The bank purchased dollars at 1.7660 apiece in an auction today.
The yield on Brazil's benchmark zero-coupon bonds due in January 2008 fell 1 basis point, or 0.01 percentage point, today to 11.12 percent, according to Banco Votorantim SA. The yield has dropped more than 1 percentage point from 12.43 percent at the end of 2006.
To contact the reporter on this story: Adriana Brasileiro in Rio de Janeiro at abrasileiro@bloomberg.netOn one of my flights back to the states I struck a conversation with a Brocker who was in Rio for the same reasons we all go. This was in 2006. Hesais back then when the dollar to reias was 2. 40 to 1 that the dollar was going to lose strength in Brazil and that by 2007 it would go as low as 1. 70 to 1 at the time I was sceptical but boy was he wright. He said do not panic the dollar will return to it's true form by the end of 2008 entering 2009. He said it will go back to as high as 3 to 1. And now I read that China is stricking deals with alot of the export companies that Brazil has buisness with wich can only mean that he might be wright. Can this be true?
I exchanged money on Friday. I used an ATM belonging to Banco 24 Horas. They usually give me a good rate and show the rate BEFORE completing the transaction.
The rate was 1.76 with a fee of $R8.00, max withdrawal $R800. In March ´07 they charged a fee of $R6.00 and the max withdrawal was $R1.000.
I previously posted in past years about the real estate scene in Brazil. I noticed many high-rise condos being constructed along the beachfront in Recife, Natal, and other cities in the northeast. I speculated that the then low value of the real was making Brazil real estate cheaper to Americans and Europeans.
Many of the condos under construction then are now completed, but the real is now very strong. I now see many "for rent" and "for sale" signs on those condos. It seems that the developers are now having difficulty selling the now available condos. And there are still many condos under construction. American potential buyers have left the market. Don´t know about the European potential buyers.
Whats the formula for calculating reais to dollars fast in your head?
180r
I previously posted in past years about the real estate scene in Brazil. I noticed many high-rise condos being constructed along the beachfront in Recife, Natal, and other cities in the northeast. I speculated that the then low value of the real was making Brazil real estate cheaper to Americans and Europeans.
Many of the condos under construction then are now completed, but the real is now very strong. I now see many "for rent" and "for sale" signs on those condos. It seems that the developers are now having difficulty selling the now available condos. And there are still many condos under construction. American potential buyers have left the market. Don´t know about the European potential buyers.
Don't think they are buying any more. Actually they are trying to sell the so called "Flats" here in Fortaleza. The condominium charges are high at 500-600 reais per month. Flat meaning an apartment in a apart hotel.
I gave up the idea of buying one long time ago. Too expensive to buy and especially to maintain. Not worth if you are planing to spend 3 months every year as I do.
On the other hand very few tourists this year compared to the last, prices a lot higher everywhere, nice looking garotas are now asking R200 for an hour or so.
El Greco
I exchanged money on Friday. I used an ATM belonging to Banco 24 Horas. They usually give me a good rate and show the rate BEFORE completing the transaction.
The rate was 1.76 with a fee of $R8.00, max withdrawal $R800. In March ´07 they charged a fee of $R6.00 and the max withdrawal was $R1.000.
They did that in Argentina lately. Instead of 1.100 pesos the ATM's know are giving only 300 pesos (=100 usd) but you can have 3 transactions daily.
Meaning that they tripled their commision charges.
Good old cash is the way to go now in Argentina.
El Greco
Whats the formula for calculating reais to dollars fast in your head?
180rWhats the formula for calculating reais to dollars fast in your head?
Thanks for nothing, I figured out my own way. Cut BRL in half add 10% of that half to convert.
Convert 500r 250+10%(25)=$275 a liitle more but close enough for a blind newbie in Rio.
I'm not sure why but this time when I went to HSBC atm, the market rate was 1. 76 and when I checked my HSBC account I got 1. 71. I guess they charge a premium now. Wish they gave a conversion rate before before the withdrawal. Banco do Real atm gave me the rate and didn't charge me a fee at GRU airport.
HoleRanger
01-10-08, 15:49
Thanks for nothing, I figured out my own way. Cut BRL in half add 10% of that half to convert.
Convert 500r 250+10%(25)=$275 a liitle more but close enough for a blind newbie in Rio.
Your formula is quick and simple,just compared it to a conversion site that gave a quote of $282.00.
I'll be there just prior to Carnival and staying unntil after it is over. I can do this calculation even when I'am drunk.
1.72 today! Can it go any lower?
No wonder their EFT is up 80% this year.
BrasilForever
01-22-08, 09:00
From an article at http://www.brazzilmag.com/content/view/9073/1/
"Brazil is having an extreme case of bearishness. São Paulo stock exchange's main index, the Ibovespa, following the lead of European and Asian markets fell 6.6%, the biggest decline since February 27, 2007, when it dropped 6.63%.
The Bovespa closed with its primary index at a low 53,709 points, the lowest level since September 12 of last year. The Brazilian stock market has already lost 15.93% of its value since January 1st.
The Brazilian real went the same way of the stock market. The dollar had a 2.46% appreciation on the day closing at 1.830 reais for a dollar."
1.72 today! Can it go any lower?
No wonder their EFT is up 80% this year.1.83 today!
Well, today was dynamic! back down to 1.79.
An experienced monger friend (from a different country to myself) had a problem using his Visa Card a few days ago in ATMs. After a tense hour on the phone long distance to Visa they unlocked it. The reason given was they didn´t know he was travelling to Brasil.
I had used a visa card a few months ago and didn´t anticipate problems - I assumed it was a local thing with his bank. But then I tried and it was rejected by about ten ATMs. I remonstrated witha bank clerk (my usual stuff about their legal obligations) and she made phone calls and got genuinely upset saying it was the authorising bank, not Brasil.
Sure enough, I got through to Visa in my own country and they had blocked it ´because there´s a lot of credit card fraud in that part of the world at the moment´. My call only took moments and Visa also gave me a number to call *before* leaving to ensure the card is unlocked and a 24hr call-collect number to sort out any problems. Fortunately my long distance phone call on this occasion only lasted minutes.
Worrying about money in Brasil is stressful. Banks operate in their own unique world here for starters. But Brasil is a lot less friendly a place if you are cash-strapped. If you are about to leave for Brasil, it might save your nerves if you check with your Visa centre at home to get a) reassurance that your card is cleared for use in Brasil and b) a 24hr call-collect / reverse charges number in case you have problems while in Brasil.
(People have many different strategies for handling and obtaining cash - I just thought I´d put this up as many people will use Visa either for their main cash source or a backup source. In fact, several different financial sources are always best IMO.)
The Watcher
01-24-08, 00:09
Worrying about money in Brasil is stressful. Banks operate in their own unique world here for starters. But Brasil is a lot less friendly a place if you are cash-strapped. If you are about to leave for Brasil, it might save your nerves if you check with your Visa centre at home to get a) reassurance that your card is cleared for use in Brasil and b) a 24hr call-collect / reverse charges number in case you have problems while in Brasil.
During my trip to Rio last year, a fellow monger I met at Mab's had this same problem with his ATM. It was his first time in Brasil and his bank did not authorize his withdrawal requests (he tried several ATMs). He called his bank the next day and the problem was quickly resolved. Fortunately for him, he had enough money to last until he could call his bank the next day.
I had a similar problem with my credit card a few years ago. Since that time, I always notify my credit card and bank card providers before I depart to Brasil; consequently, I have not had any more problems like that.
I recommend that everyone do the same to avoid any such problems.
An experienced monger friend (from a different country to myself) had a problem using his Visa Card a few days ago in ATMs. After a tense hour on the phone long distance to Visa they unlocked it. The reason given was they didn´t know he was travelling to Brasil.I had the same thing happen to me in Arizona, at a gas station.
Mr Enternational
01-30-08, 04:55
Looks like HSBC has started charging a fee for usage of other banks' ATMs. I was charged $1.50 twice last week after making cash withdrawls, whereas before that I have never been charged in the two years that I have had my account.
Looks like HSBC has started charging a fee for usage of other banks' ATMs. I was charged $1.50 twice last week after making cash withdrawls, whereas before that I have never been charged in the two years that I have had my account.I noticed a 3% surcharge but not 1.50 charge ealier this month in SP.
Albert Punter
02-01-08, 05:20
Fortunately, I never experienced problems you mention.
And so it is for my mongers and non-mongers friend who travels the world.
Recently in Santiago de Chile I wanted to meet a girl and I went to an ATM but I was unable to draw money. I went to a second one: same story. However, at third one I was able to draw what I needed to spend an enjoyable hour.
During my trip to Rio last year, a fellow monger I met at Mab's had this same problem with his ATM. It was his first time in Brasil and his bank did not authorize his withdrawal requests (he tried several ATMs). He called his bank the next day and the problem was quickly resolved. Fortunately for him, he had enough money to last until he could call his bank the next day.
I had a similar problem with my credit card a few years ago. Since that time, I always notify my credit card and bank card providers before I depart to Brasil; consequently, I have not had any more problems like that.
I recommend that everyone do the same to avoid any such problems.
I had no problem getting money but the only ATM that worked for me was citibank In ipanema and Copa. I would never put ALL my money on one card. My suggestion is get a Green dot Visa Travel pre-paid debit card. You can load the money on at Rite Aid or other stores and if the card is lost or stolen they gaurentee the funds anywhere in the world in 24 hours. The cost to Us is like $40 for the card and $5 per $500 load fee. I have 2 of these and hide cash all over so I have 4 sources for money in case its stolen. Just a thought.
I have been using citibank to pull money from my USA citi account for a long time, with no fees..
As of Feb 2, they are now charging 2% fee! and it seems they have lowered the rate a bit to hide additional fees.
So for R$1000 they charged me over $11 usd!!
Can you HSBC users confirm there are still no charges if you go to a HSBC here? and if you know the type of account you have. I am about to jump ship and switch..
Looks like HSBC has started charging a fee for usage of other banks' ATMs. I was charged $1.50 twice last week after making cash withdrawls, whereas before that I have never been charged in the two years that I have had my account.Do they consider HSBC in Brazil a HSBC branch or other bank?
In removing 900 reals the last couple days from the Citibank in Copa, the service charge was $15.28. That ends up being a $3 per $100 withdrawn. It's a $5 fee per transaction plus what looks like a foreign transaction fee in addition. I use Bank of America in the states.
King Of Crunk
02-23-08, 02:03
Do they consider HSBC in Brazil a HSBC branck or other bank?I had a incident last year with HSBC in Sao Paulo and when I called the international department from the US phone number I was informed that they work as separate entity's.Guys beware anytime you use a ATM machine and it looks like its acting funny if a receipt does come out after your transaction didn't go through KEEP IT. I had the pleasure of them deducting $150 US dollars from my account even though the receipt stated " No Transaction". Unfortunately I had to waste $50 dollars to make a call from my hotel room and that is what I was trying to get reimbursed to me by HSBC in the US.My bank here gave me a temporary credit but then tried to take it back but I had the receipt and faxed it on over and got my money back.
In removing 900 reals the last couple days from the Citibank in Copa, the service charge was $15.28. That ends up being a $3 per $100 withdrawn. It's a $5 fee per transaction plus what looks like a foreign transaction fee in addition. I use Bank of America in the states.
This is from the Citibank website:
# Outside of the U.S., you can use your Citibank Banking Card at more than 1,000,000 ATMs. However, there is a foreign exchange fee of 2% (1% for Citigold clients). For example, if you withdrew 100 Euros at any ATM in Italy, and the value in USD was $125, then the 2% fee would be $2.50 ($1.25 for Citigold clients). This exchange fee also applies if you use your Citibank Banking Card to make purchases overseas.
As of Feb 2, they are now charing 2% fee! and it seems they have lowered the rate a bit to hide additional fees......
The exchange rate today was $1USD = $R1.70. I've been told the Citibank ATM was exchanging at a rate of $R1.67.
In removing 900 reals the last couple days from the Citibank in Copa, the service charge was $15.28. That ends up being a $3 per $100 withdrawn. It's a $5 fee per transaction plus what looks like a foreign transaction fee in addition. I use Bank of America in the states.
I also use B of A. I am charged R$8.00 by the Brazilian bank, which converted at the time to around $4.50, and $5.00 by B of A. I round the total fees to $10.00 for R$1,000 or $550. I generally use Banco 24 Horas in Brazil or Banco do Brazil.
Mr Enternational
02-24-08, 02:00
Do they consider HSBC in Brazil a HSBC branch or other bank?
HSBC in one place is HSBC anywhere. There is not a fee for withdrawl from one of their machines but I think when I first opened the account the guy told me about a fee for currency conversion on a withdrawl from overseas. I really have never noticed it. Maybe it is included in the debit amount. The other day I withdrew R$200 and my account was debited US$118.40. If there is no other fee included that would put the exchange at R$1.689 to US$1.
On another note, my girlfriend in Rio wants to put money into my account. She went to HSBC there and they told her it would be a US$30 fee to do the deposit. And there was something like a US$60 fee if ???..something about a different account or different bank...I am not really sure??? I know she said she is going to have to pay 30.
I'm in the situation where I can't get away from paying the fees. Usually my biggest concern is to just protect my account info. I do several things, I purchase pre-paid travel cards from my local AAA, take significant amounts of cash so I won't have to hit the ATM's, and be careful. I exchange cash as I need it, and then all the unexchanged cash I put away in the apt. I try to use the motels, and keep the mess away from the home front.
ryjer
If you are staying in a hotel or an apartment that has a safe, the best options is to carry cash in big bills. I use Ben Brothers jewlers to exchange my money. It is on Rua Xavier da Silvera a block from Meia Petaxaca and Help. Make a left away from the beach and it's a block and a half on the right hand side. Ask for Edvard. I exchanged $2000 US when I got there in $100 bills and he gave me 1.78 Reals. The bank exchange rate was 1.72 at the time. Plus no withdrawl and currency transaction fees.
HSBC in one place is HSBC anywhere. There is not a fee for withdrawl from one of their machines but I think when I first opened the account the guy told me about a fee for currency conversion on a withdrawl from overseas. I really have never noticed it. Maybe it is included in the debit amount. The other day I withdrew R$200 and my account was debited US$118.40. If there is no other fee included that would put the exchange at R$1.689 to US$1.I was charged 3% by HSBC and I used my HSBC atm card at a HSBC bank in Sao Paulo. They don't tell you the exchange rate until after the receipt prints out. When I used my HSBC card at the Bank of Real atm at gru airport does not charge a fee at all for using their atm and shows the rate before completing the transaction. I also have PNC in the US and they have no international atm fees and refunds any charged by the other bank if you have a minimum of 2k in your account. But I still can't believe how much the dollar has dropped against the Realis in 1 year.
Mr Enternational
02-25-08, 06:42
If you are staying in a hotel or an apartment that has a safe, the best options is to carry cash in big bills. I use Ben Brothers jewlers to exchange my money. It is on Rua Xavier da Silvera a block from Meia Petaxaca and Help. Make a left away from the beach and it's a block and a half on the right hand side. Ask for Edvard. I exchanged $2000 US when I got there in $100 bills and he gave me 1.78 Reals. The bank exchange rate was 1.72 at the time. Plus no withdrawl and currency transaction fees.
The travel agency on the same block as Gabriel (Edvar) going toward NS will give you a little more. I can't remember the guys name, but he did feed me some good sandwiches and tea once when I went in with a friend.
If Barack Obama wins the Dem nomination for pres, and wins the gen election in Nov....what will that mean for the greenback???
With his budget proposals and spending plans expect the dollar to weaken further. He has no understanding of inflation and currency devaluation. Maybe he does but the general public doesn't.
Also I expect the world to follow the U.S of competitive currency devaluation, A strong currency is not attractive. The ECB was talking tough last year and traders are seeing through the smoke and mirrors as the ECB hinted at rate cuts. Almost every country is expanding the money suuply at, at least double digit rates which is further debasing the currency and feeding inflation. It has been 1 candidate in the U.S that understands this and campaign on this but nobody understands his lingo or understands whats going on in the world, if they did they would vote Ron Paul, and price stability with a strong dollar. So if any other candidate that gets in besides Ron Paul would have a weak dollar because of the promises and spending projects they are promising not realizing the inflationary consequences. This is important for non American governments as well, because the U.S exports its inflation to other economies and central banks in joint effort will refer to inflation to avoid a recession similar to the one japan has experience over a decade.
So expect a weak dollar and global inflation.
I was so loyal to Citibank for years. I got a good exchange rate and no fees.
I used Citi in USA and Citi ATM here in Brasil.
Now they charge 2% fee, AND today I pulled from Citi at 1.67 and also from my Charles Schawb account which gave me 1.70 rate! This is an additional 1.8%.. so I get charged about $19 to pull out $600. this is sad.
I have read the HSBC posts, but am not sure there is no fee or hidden charge.
Schwab looks best for me, I also get a rebate from them on my statement!
I called both and both told me they are currently charging a 3% foreign transaction fee. If I can find a bank that charges less I will open an account.
I have read the HSBC posts, but am not sure there is no fee or hidden charge.
They are hiding a 3% into their exchange rate although they advertise no commision.
Madd Love,
I pretty much agree with you. None of these candidates with a reasonable chance of winning is going to be good for the US$. They all will spend way more than they bring in (isn't that what gets them votes).
But really, look past who is President to who is heading the Central Bank. Alan Greenspan set a terrible precedent.- whenever there's a potential problem, inject massive liquidity (aka money) into the system. This makes things run smoothly in the short-run, but it inevitably leads to inflation, either in asset prices and/or in prices for goods and services. Greenspan's easy money created a tech bubble in the late 90s. We got out of that by creating a housing bubble from 2000-2005. I think we're out of bubbles now. Injecting money into the system is going to throw straight through to consumer prices (and thus a lower US$).
Bernanke came into office thinking he was going to put a stop to the easy money. He didn't realize how much pressure Wall Street was going to put on him. He'll end up being the fall guy for Greenspan's money mischief (borrowing that phrase from Milton Friedman).
Pretty soon it's not gonna matter if Help stays open or closes. If the dollar continues it's free fall against the Real, Americans are gonna start looking for lower cost options. As of today, the Real is at 1.66 against the dollar. It has lost 11 Reals in two weeks. At this rate we'll be dollar for dollar in a couple months...Doesn't bode well for my May trip...
I choose to see this in a positive perspective.
Since autumn 2005 the real have increased with almost 14 % compared to my Nordic currency.
This means that people like me as have done investments in Brasil, like buying holiday house or flats, have increased its value with 14%, in addition to the general price increase for populare holiday homes.
In my condomenium in Ceará, this increase is proven to be about 35 - 40 % in approx. two and a half years.
The requests for holiday homes here in the North East is fairly good, both from the raising Brasilian middle and upper class, and the Europeans.
So hopefully there are still plenty of reals for buying Skols and other nice things ... B
Great points Lancer & MaddLove. I will be down there in July and am only hopeing that by that time there will be a correction {$1=1, 83/1, 84R}. I also anticipate (pray every night), that the weak US dollar will have taken its cause & effect in RJ by then (IMHO). By that I mean brazilians are not dumb; neither are their working girls. Fewer US tourists equals less money for them, their families, their children (oh yes, a lot of these meninas do have criancas), and their economy as a whole. They don't want that. I believe by May and July if the dollar doesn't rebound and there are fewer US tourists and mongers visiting RJ instead of GDP's being so arrogant with their firm prices of tres sem I think they will start taking btwn. 260, R & 280, R. I don't want to digress but IMHO the P4P economy and structure in Rio is strikingly similar to the P4P market in Miami Beach, FL and how it absorbs market changes. But anyway back to Rio. The stunners, or I should say, the pretty prostitutes, will start taking 20 to 40 reals less than their normal bottom line taking price.
pretty soon it's not gonna matter if help stays open or closes. if the dollar continues it's free fall against the real, americans are gonna start looking for lower cost options. as of today, the real is at 1.66 against the dollar. it has lost 11 reals in two weeks. at this rate we'll be dollar for dollar in a couple months...doesn't bode well for my may trip...
what was the name of that peep show place in copacabana? miami peep?
What % are the p4p by tourist? I don't think more than 20% because most clubs do not have hosts or girls that speak english or spanish. The time the english speaking hosts come out are during an event like Formula One. So I don't think girls will adjust price just because of a weak dollar.
I think they will start taking btwn. 260, R & 280, R. In my experience the girls tend to stick to multiples of 50 (unless it is under 100). One would hope they are smart enough to think about economies, but I would think closing Help would drop prices more than the US economy.
Pretty soon it's not gonna matter if Help stays open or closes. If the dollar continues it's free fall against the Real, Americans are gonna start looking for lower cost options. As of today, the Real is at 1.66 against the dollar. It has lost 11 Reals in two weeks. At this rate we'll be dollar for dollar in a couple months...Doesn't bode well for my May trip...
I am completely dumbfounded as to why the Brazilian central bank is letting the real rise so much against the dollar! Brazil wants to export orange juice, sugar, and above all, Embraer jets to the US. But when its currency rises so much (by 400% in 5 years) its exports to the US plummet. Lower exports mean fewer jobs for Brazilians in Brazil.
On top of that, many Brazilians working here in the US send some money back home. Now the money they send is a pittance after converting to reais and doesn't help their relatives very much.
Other countries that export a lot to the US, notable Canada and China, have made adjustments to keep their currencies from rising too much against the dollar. The Bank of Canada has lowered its own interest rates a few times to keep parity with the US interest rates. China has pegged its currency to the US dollar.
the dropping dollar is really ruining my budget so i think i will start looking at other options instead of rio. (un)fortunately rio has really spoiled me and i am looking for something comparable in terms of:
1. health checks for gdps - i still mostly to the termas in rio and have no desire to have sex with girls with hiv, herpes, etc., covered or not. i know no test is foolproof but i would rather cut the odds, especially once we start talking about bbbj.
2. gfe - i like the bbbj even sometimes the dfk of the termas girls.
3. language - i speak decent portuguese and could very quickly get up to speed in spanish. not sure if i want to make the time and money commitment to learn an asian language.
4. food - not the most important consideration but a guy has to eat. i like steak and bread in its various incarnations. churrascarias and taco carts are equally acceptable but i am not a fan of asian cuisine.
of course it goes without saying the price needs to be reasonable or else i would just stay in rio.
i know some may suggest less expensive cities in brazil but do any of them have the health requirements of rio termas?
so far i have come up with puerto plata and german fkk as alternative destinations. what do you world-travelling riophiles think about other destinations?
Exec Talent
02-29-08, 04:05
I am completely dumbfounded as to why the Brazilian central bank is letting the real rise so much against the dollar! Brazil wants to export orange juice, sugar, and above all, Embraer jets to the US. But when its currency rises so much (by 400% in 5 years) its exports to the US plummet. Lower exports mean fewer jobs for Brazilians in Brazil.
For that exact reason I think we will see a rise in the exchage rate. Regardless what the other George thinks, the US is entering a recession. As a result, demand for foreign goods will continue to decline. Something has to give. My bet (and my dollars) are on the exchange rate.
The dropping dollar is really ruining my budget so I think I will start looking at other options instead of Rio. (Un)fortunately Rio has really spoiled me Have you considered Costa Rica? It's not Rio (nothing is!!!), but I liked it better than the Dominican Republic. (Haven't been to Germany, so I can't make a fair comparison to the latter) I had a great time at Oxygen Resort near Puerto Plata, but that's an "all inclusive", fairly expensive resort, so it's not really representative of the overall sex scene in the DR.
SO exec are you telling us that the dollar will be strong again in Brazil.
I don't know nothing about economics and i did not understant what you said.
Have you considered Costa Rica? It's not Rio (nothing is!!!), but I liked it better than the Dominican Republic. (Haven't been to Germany, so I can't make a fair comparison to the latter) I had a great time at Oxygen Resort near Puerto Plata, but that's an "all inclusive", fairly expensive resort, so it's not really representative of the overall sex scene in the DR.
I've been to Costa Rica 7 times over the last 5 years but unfortunately it isn't, nor will it ever be Rio. I love Latin American women and Rio has definitely spoiled me. I think the biggest difference between the two countries is the quality of service. Costa Rican(Which include Tica's, Nicas, Panamanians, Dominicians, Colombians, Etc) gdp's are well known for their clock watching and less then personal service. The TLN and GFE are very hard to find, especially at the Del Rey. I have always been intrigued by Colombian women but they tend to be very bitchy and robotic. One of these days I'm going to go to the source, Medilllen or Cali and see if you can catch them before they become hardened pros. There is something about Brazilian women that make them a different breed. Most of the girls that I've been with on my 2 trips to Rio have been the total GFE. That even includes the Terma girls. If you're to just bang as many girls as you can and don't mind the robotic experience, Costa Rica is a good cheaper alternative. For me, as long as I can afford it, Rio is my spot.
El Austriaco
02-29-08, 10:29
I also anticipate (pray every night), that the weak US dollar will have taken its cause & effect in RJ by then (IMHO). By that I mean brazilians are not dumb; neither are their working girls. Fewer US tourists equals less money for them, their families, their children (oh yes, a lot of these meninas do have criancas), and their economy as a whole. They don't want that. I believe by May and July if the dollar doesn't rebound and there are fewer US tourists and mongers visiting RJ instead of GDP's being so arrogant with their firm prices of tres sem I think they will start taking btwn. 260, R & 280, R. I don't want to digress but IMHO the P4P economy and structure in Rio is strikingly similar to the P4P market in Miami Beach, FL and how it absorbs market changes. But anyway back to Rio. The stunners, or I should say, the pretty prostitutes, will start taking 20 to 40 reals less than their normal bottom line taking price.
Personally, I think that all of this is pure speculation.
Number one, why would girls reduce their prices if it's easy to replace the missing income from US mongers by European mongers? There's absolutely no reason to.
Number two, a lot of mongers (including myself) wouldn't agree to R$ 300 even if the dollar was back at R$ 3.00 per USD 1.00, like it was back in 2002. Apparently, there are enough mongers out there paying these prices regardless of the exchange rate, which gives the girls even less incentive to drop prices if it's so easy to find newbies who are unable to distinguish between asking price and final price, unwilling to negotiate, and just cave in at the sight of a beautiful woman. Personally, I have never paid more than R$ 200.00 anywhere in Rio.
Number three, in my personal experience, "looks" (as if one could sort of define attractiveness with any degree of accuracy) and prices have very little to do with each other in Rio. Where I do see a high correlation, however, is hardcore girls and high prices.
Number four, is there any factual basis for claiming that there are less US mongers right now? The first time I was in Rio, in 2002, there were quite a few US mongers, in 2004, at an exchange rate of R$ 2.85, there were quite a lot, in 2005, at R$ 2.40, I didn't see less US mongers, and in 2006, at R$ 2.20, there was a ton, too. Needless to say, during all this time, everyone was bitching that Rio was getting more expensive, but the bottom line was: they kept coming back. There were even times, when the Plano Real was implemented, when the exchange rate was R$ 1.00 per dollar, and that didn't stop US mongers.
My point is: rather than hope and pray about the dollar recovering, learn Portuguese, find cheaper options, get away from the tourist hangouts, and you're gonna be fine.
EA
I've never been to Rio, only Sao Paulo where its more expensive and alot of girls come to SP just because they know they can charge more because its like NYC. One girl from Rio I talked to said she charges R100 more in SP for TLN. Theres also massage clinics where it can be R120 for an hour. So theres always cheaper options. I must say SP is by far the best place I've mongered at compared to Europe, Americas, Australia, and Asia. Even if its 1:1 vs the $ its still a great deal to pay R400-500 for TLN with a hot girl who in the US can charge $500 an hour! So until they start charging that in Brazil, I'll be going back. The only thing I'm worried about is all the raids thats going on in SP.
Ea your points are well taken. I would only add two things; About the European Mongers..in Europe there are so many options for beautiful girls for 50/60 euros its unreal. I was just there relatively recently in October and the women I slept with from the Lafhaus Vitalia *****house, all looked like Giselle Bundchen but younger. (I kid you not! ) But all your points are still well taken and it is pure speculation on my part. However the cheaper options in Brazil are from a different galaxy compared to the more moderate options of Europe in terms of shear quality. But you are right, we are comparing the sort of monger who only goes to Scores and Goldfingers as opposed to the more average monger. Or the monger who goes during high season as opposed to low season. My only point is that just like the suckers who fall in love and send these prostitutes money every month or whatever. These girls in my experience like working girls across the globe, are not naive. For the most part they will know whether your European or American or from an Asian nation; and do understand that America, unlike Brazil is not doing so well right now. And during negotiation (I am a negotiator myself), will or might take that into consideration when accepting a lower price from us U. S. Guys [instead of rejection]. Whereas with the Europeans if they were to negotiate the GDP's immediately know "oh he has the money he just doesn't wanna seperate from it. How do I get him to seperate from his beloved money. These are very minute and speculative aspects of our hobby but everybody on this board has a PHD in P4P and expect will continue to add their valueable perspectives from whom I learned a great deal. Ie. Never accept initial asking price & always, no matter what, pay afterwards!
EDITOR'S NOTE: I would suggest that the author or another Forum Member consider posting a link to this report in the Reports of Distinction thread. Please Click Here (http://www.internationalsexguide.info/forum/announcement-reportsofdistinction.php?) for more information.
Austriaco,
I agree with everything you wrote. Even when the rate was 3. 2, my standard price was 150R. Occasionally, I have gone over this, and generally the more I have paid, the worse my experience has been. My theory is that if you pay a girl her asking price, she thinks you're a fool, and gives you service accordingly. I'm amazed that some mongers can't differentiate between the asking price and what they should pay. Always bargain. In a friendly manner of course.
Mr Enternational
03-01-08, 04:49
Number two, a lot of mongers (including myself) wouldn't agree to R$ 300 even if the dollar was back at R$ 3.00 per USD 1.00, like it was back in 2002. Apparently, there are enough mongers out there paying these prices regardless of the exchange rate, which gives the girls even less incentive to drop prices if it's so easy to find newbies who are unable to distinguish between asking price and final price, unwilling to negotiate, and just cave in at the sight of a beautiful woman. Personally, I have never paid more than R$ 200.00 anywhere in Rio.EA
I will fess up. Twice I have given someone R300 never more. My going rate is usually never more than R150 TLN (100 if I can help it). But, one of them had been with me from about 8pm until about 10am the next morning. And she did help me get Brazilian prices on some other wares that I had purchased. The other, I didn't even fuck the time I gave her 300. Of course I had fucked her before (for much less pix and video included) and had known her for a while (since she had been on the scene), but for those 12 hours or so I really cared less.
Another thing. One chick in DR told me that it is Black Americans that will pay out the wazoo. Can't say I'm prejudice because I myself am Black American. But while I had her under my spell I tapped her for the inside scoop. In short, originally she had wanted 100 US for 2 hours from me but I ended up giving her like 45 for about 12 hours after all was said and done. So I asked if it was Germans or Italians (..who are the big percentage of tourists in DR) that were giving her that amount of money. And she said no. The black guys from the U.S. always give her at least that if not much more.
I am completely dumbfounded as to why the Brazilian central bank is letting the real rise so much against the dollar! Brazil wants to export orange juice, sugar, and above all, Embraer jets to the US. But when its currency rises so much (by 400% in 5 years) its exports to the US plummet. Lower exports mean fewer jobs for Brazilians in Brazil.
On top of that, many Brazilians working here in the US send some money back home. Now the money they send is a pittance after converting to reais and doesn't help their relatives very much.
Other countries that export a lot to the US, notable Canada and China, have made adjustments to keep their currencies from rising too much against the dollar. The Bank of Canada has lowered its own interest rates a few times to keep parity with the US interest rates. China has pegged its currency to the US dollar.Google any foreign currency relative to the US and they ALL have appreciated significantly against the US dollar and indeed the Canadian dollar has SURGED by over 30% against the US dollar in the last few years and as of today is worth slightly more (which is totally crazy considering 5 years ago it was 60 cents to the US dollar). Don't blame Brazil (which continues to have strong growth), blame Bernake and the other children running the US Fed for their "weak dollar" fiscal policy as they try to stave off a recession by lowering interest rates dramatically (which is resulting in higher inflation but I digress), a recession that by most accounts they are already in. IMHO you ain't seen nothing yet, the US dollar isn't done falling yet and things are going to continue getting expensive...Euros anyone...;)
Austriaco,
I agree with everything you wrote. Even when the rate was 3. 2, my standard price was 150R. Occasionally, I have gone over this, and generally the more I have paid, the worse my experience has been. My theory is that if you pay a girl her asking price, she thinks you're a fool, and gives you service accordingly. I'm amazed that some mongers can't differentiate between the asking price and what they should pay. Always bargain. In a friendly manner of course.I thought the cheaper it is the worse the service. Its been my experience things on the menu are a la carte so you pay for what you want. I'm sure some give the same service regardless of price but I've never seen better service from someone just because you bargain the rate lower and they respect you more for it and give you better service because of it. Plus are you talking about Rio? I've never been so I don't the know the rates but no girl does TLN in Sao Paulo for 150R, I don't think even the street walkers. But I do know never pay asking, they expect you to negotiate.
Albert Punter
03-02-08, 03:46
basing on what you say, as asia doesn't seem to be right place for you and germany too as you will be suffering weaking dollar a lot, your future destination may still be in latin america.
what about buenos aires ?
you will have wonderful meat there, in all senses.
the dropping dollar is really ruining my budget so i think i will start looking at other options instead of rio. (un)fortunately rio has really spoiled me and i am looking for something comparable in terms of:
1. health checks for gdps - i still mostly to the termas in rio and have no desire to have sex with girls with hiv, herpes, etc., covered or not. i know no test is foolproof but i would rather cut the odds, especially once we start talking about bbbj.
2. gfe - i like the bbbj even sometimes the dfk of the termas girls.
3. language - i speak decent portuguese and could very quickly get up to speed in spanish. not sure if i want to make the time and money commitment to learn an asian language.
4. food - not the most important consideration but a guy has to eat. i like steak and bread in its various incarnations. churrascarias and taco carts are equally acceptable but i am not a fan of asian cuisine.
of course it goes without saying the price needs to be reasonable or else i would just stay in rio.
i know some may suggest less expensive cities in brazil but do any of them have the health requirements of rio termas?
so far i have come up with puerto plata and german fkk as alternative destinations. what do you world-travelling riophiles think about other destinations?
Here is the only American Presidential candidate Ron Paul that understands inflation and the future value of the dollar. This is a recent video with him confronting the Federal Reserve chairman on deliberate currency depreciation.
Ron Paul questions Bernanke on CNBC on 02/27/2008
http://youtube.com/watch?v=yybFGh1sUcQ
So anyone who gets in office besides Ron Paul expect the dollar to go lower and more global inflation around the world since the dollar is a major currency for bank reserves around the world. whatever happens in the U.S now will happen to the rest of the world. Because the U.S is currently the consumer of last resort and the largest consuming country on the planet taking up 25% of the worlds GDP.
The old saying is if the U.S sneezes the world catches a cold.
Hobbying,
S. Paulo is quite a bit more expensive than Rio (and the women are generally hotter in Sao Paulo). And yes many garotas will think you're a loser/fool if you pay their asking price. Last trip to Rio my best experience was a chick I paid 90R to. Yes, it was very late and Help was closing, but the girl was damn hot and performance was top-notch. Maybe she just wanted a nice place to stay overnight.
IMHO you ain't seen nothing yet, the US dollar isn't done falling yet and things are going to continue getting expensive...Euros anyone...;)
Unfortunately, I fear that you are correct.
When people's wealth is falling due to falling house values, and the purchasing power of people's incomes is falling due to ever higher gas and food prices, the better approach is usually for government to spend more. Repairing infrastructure and other projects that employ people and pay them good wages are the way to help them pay their mortgages and other rising living costs. Lowering the borrowing costs for those with the best credit ratings is a poor way to go. Many people have poor credit and will not benefit from the Fed actions. But, we have a huge budget deficit so there is little leeway there. And our government seems to respond the most to the needs of the very wealthy.
A big problem is that this approach only makes things worse in the long run. Lower interest rates makes our Treasury bills less attractive to the world's investors who buy them. As they sell off (or don't buy) our securities, our dollar sinks ever lower. This makes it more difficult to finance our budget deficits. To make our securities more attractive, interest rates would have to rise a lot. But that would slow down the economy. A bigger problem is that the long run, in this case, is only a year or two away.
2008 and 2009 are going to be rough years for middle income families in the US. And the way the feminists have been sucessfully attacking men's rights, it will be ever more difficult and expense to monger. I think 2008 and 2009 will be lean years for the average mongerer as well.
Dodger Bulldog
03-02-08, 14:40
Google any foreign currency relative to the US and they ALL have appreciated significantly against the US dollar... That is mostly true but it's not completely true.
And I suppose it depends on what period of time you are looking at, as that can change the numbers.
When I first went to Argentina in 2004, the peso was 2.95 to 1, but today it is 3.15. So the dollar has actually strengthened a tad bit there.
When I first went to Guatemala in 2005, the quetzal was 7.63 to 1, and today it is at 7.69.
I am sure there are some more exceptions where the dollar has not fallen, but there aren't many.
DB
That is mostly true but it's not completely true.
And I suppose it depends on what period of time you are looking at, as that can change the numbers.
When I first went to Argentina in 2004, the peso was 2.95 to 1, but today it is 3.15. So the dollar has actually strengthened a tad bit there.
When I first went to Guatemala in 2005, the quetzal was 7.63 to 1, and today it is at 7.69.
I am sure there are some more exceptions where the dollar has not fallen, but there aren't many.
DB
Soon they will introduce the Amero and all of your problems will go away.
When I first went to Rio in Feb. 2000, the exchange rate was about where it is now. Of course, many Rio mongers first started going in 2002-2004 when the Real was beaten down by fears over what Lula would do. For those mongers whose first experience was 3 or more Real to the US$, today's rates are indeed scary. But in an historical perspective, they aren't that out of line.
Of course, the crazy rates from 2002-2004 contributed to the garota price inflation that we have today. Those favorable rates made it seem like "play money" and alot of guys spent irresponsibly and raised the garotas' expectations of what they could get.
Maybe some relief in sight in for US mongers. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601086&sid=atdA9vLbWlcc&refer=news
although http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601086&sid=aitfi4RyILCY&refer=latin_america
On the plus side South American strippers have created a novel "with the benefit of hindsight" forex market. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601086&sid=aSKU9QT1i3mA&refer=latin_america What next? Help GDPs taking US$ at 2004 rates?
The US dollar has been plummeting against the euro and the yen. Yesterday I checked to see how far it fell against the real but it was still at 1.71, the same rate as 2 or 3 weeks ago. I interpret that to mean that the real fell against those other currencies at the same rate as the dollar, not gaining or losing against it.
That may be good news. If the real is falling, then the exchange rate may rise if the US dollar can fall less quickly than the real.
Though after seeing Bush talk at the Economic Club of New York yesterday, I am not holding my breath that our economy is going to turn around anytime soon. Certainly not in 2008, and maybe not even in 2009. The exchange rate may be unfavorable for some time.
Trash Talking
03-17-08, 01:34
I have an idea. I'm headed to Brazil in about 5 weeks and am watching the currency wall like a bat out of hell.
What about the idea of taking my USD to Euros and then transferring all that back to Reals when I get there. Any thoughts?
I'm thinking that I may do alot of work and only save a few dollars.
I did the calculation last week when it was 1.66 and would have saved 3cents to 1 Real. Wasn't worth it unless you exchange large amounts.
I have an idea. I'm headed to Brazil in about 5 weeks and am watching the currency wall like a bat out of hell.
What about the idea of taking my USD to Euros and then transferring all that back to Reals when I get there. Any thoughts?
I'm thinking that I may do alot of work and only save a few dollars.
I have an idea. I'm headed to Brazil in about 5 weeks and am watching the currency wall like a bat out of hell.
What about the idea of taking my USD to Euros and then transferring all that back to Reals when I get there. Any thoughts?
I'm thinking that I may do alot of work and only save a few dollars.
A few years ago I asked someone who worked in finance about that very issue. He explained to me that it would never work due to a phenomenon called triangular arbitrage. As he explained it to me, when there is the possibility to gain a profit through buying euros with dollars, then buying reais with euros, and finally buying dollars again with the reais, speculators do so with billions of currency units. Consequently, the exchange rates between those 3 currencies always remain perfectly in sync with each other because triangular aribtrage by currency speculators bids away all potential profits whenever there is an opportunity to so do. You will lose money on the transaction fees.
He went on to describe some more complicated stuff using currency futures contracts. I didn't understand it. But the upshot was that you can hedge against declines in the value of the dollar by playing the expected exchange rate 3 or 6 months out against the current exchange rate today.
Exec Talent
03-25-08, 01:30
Back on 2/28, about a month ago, I mentioned that something had to give. We are seeing a rise in the Real to about 1.75 now.
I believe in numerical analysis, but often times you have to step back and look at what makes sense from a macroeconomic viewpoint.
I just am thankful that Greenspan is no longer Fed Chair (though he still opens his mouth way more than he should). I could never figure out what he was doing, I just knew I wouldn't like it.
Back on 2/28, about a month ago, I mentioned that something had to give. We are seeing a rise in the Real to about 1.75 now.
I believe in numerical analysis, but often times you have to step back and look at what makes sense from a macroeconomic viewpoint.
I just am thankful that Greenspan is no longer Fed Chair (though he still opens his mouth way more than he should). I could never figure out what he was doing, I just knew I wouldn't like it.
While I am excited to a point, but, do you really think this is a trend, or just a fluke. I keep reading all these articles in the press, and listen to the radio, but isn't this just a slight change? I'd be happy if this was the indication of some type of sustained trend. Maybe, in a few weeks of an upwards trend we can start to become excited. I'll keep my fingers crossed.
Depending on the outcome of this falls election in the states, do you think there will a significant upward change that would warrant a short term currencey investment?
ryjer
Anyone know what they are giving for US$ now?
I have an idea. I'm headed to Brazil in about 5 weeks and am watching the currency wall like a bat out of hell.
What about the idea of taking my USD to Euros and then transferring all that back to Reals when I get there. Any thoughts?
I'm thinking that I may do alot of work and only save a few dollars.
I did this a few years ago, changing pounds to dollars in the UK then to real in Brasil. At that time the dollar exchange rate was much better than the £ rate in Brasil, compared to the £/$. I don't know why, it just was. I know nothing about the intricacies of the financial market but it worked for me. It was still not as good as drawing money straight out of the cash machine but if I needed a large amount of cash on my first day, to pay my apartment rental for instance, it worked out okay. I could save up to R$100, enough for a free session.
I am not saying this will always work just that at times it works.
Anyone know what they are giving for US$ now?
The same as always,............pussy. But not enough!!!!
Exec Talent
04-07-08, 05:17
While I can crunch numbers with the best of them, to me that is just the beginning. My take on the exchange rate is based on macroeconomic reality. The economy in the US is not going to get better in the near term. The games the financial institutions played have been played in one form or another for years. Sucker not so bright nor financially savvy people into a deal, jack them up, then when they can't pay, take the asset back and do it again.
The problem this time was so many financial institutions were playing the same game. Builders built, suckers speculated and when real buyers didn't show up the value of the asset sharply declined. About two years ago when an economist friend of mine told me that in some counties in Florida homes were being built at over twice the absorption rate, I saw the writing on the wall and told everyone who would listen not to buy in this speculative market.
Back to the macroeconomic currency issue. In 2004, balance of trade was 7.2 Billion in favor of Brazil, 2005 - 9 Billion in favor of Brazil, 2006 - 7.1 Billion in favor of Brazil, in 2007 only 1 Billion in favor of Brazil with December actually 500 Million in favor of the US. The US is by far Brazil's largest export market.
Like I said before, something has to give. If your largest customer is not buying as much there is one thing which will allow them to buy more. Discount the value of what you are selling by adjusting the exchange rate. We might see some intermediate fluctuations as currency traders make some money, but I believe that unless there is upward movement in the exchange rate, Brazil's economy will start to suffer.
Back to the macroeconomic currency issue. In 2004, balance of trade was 7.2 Billion in favor of Brazil, 2005 - 9 Billion in favor of Brazil, 2006 - 7.1 Billion in favor of Brazil, in 2007 only 1 Billion in favor of Brazil with December actually 500 Million in favor of the US. The US is by far Brazil's largest export market.Thanks for posting this. This is very useful to me in planning my long-term currency strategy.
While I can crunch numbers with the best of them, to me that is just the beginning. My take on the exchange rate is based on macroeconomic reality. The economy in the US is not going to get better in the near term. The games the financial institutions played have been played in one form or another for years. Sucker not so bright nor financially savvy people into a deal, jack them up, then when they can't pay, take the asset back and do it again.
The problem this time was so many financial institutions were playing the same game. Builders built, suckers speculated and when real buyers didn't show up the value of the asset sharply declined. About two years ago when an economist friend of mine told me that in some counties in Florida homes were being built at over twice the absorption rate, I saw the writing on the wall and told everyone who would listen not to buy in this speculative market.
Back to the macroeconomic currency issue. In 2004, balance of trade was 7.2 Billion in favor of Brazil, 2005 - 9 Billion in favor of Brazil, 2006 - 7.1 Billion in favor of Brazil, in 2007 only 1 Billion in favor of Brazil with December actually 500 Million in favor of the US. The US is by far Brazil's largest export market.
Like I said before, something has to give. If your largest customer is not buying as much there is one thing which will allow them to buy more. Discount the value of what you are selling by adjusting the exchange rate. We might see some intermediate fluctuations as currency traders make some money, but I believe that unless there is upward movement in the exchange rate, Brazil's economy will start to suffer.Looks like they came close.
http://www.brazzilmag.com/content/view/9222/1/
(Just an article I stumbled upon)
Sterling has tumbled to a record low against the euro, breaching the 80 pence mark for the first time, as the gloom surrounding the British economy deepens.
The decline comes after a survey today from the Nationwide showed that falling house prices are beginning to sap consumer confidence. The mortgage lender's consumer confidence index fell to 77 last month, its weakest since the survey started.
The news is likely to cement expectations that the Bank of England will cut interest rates tomorrow, and drove sterling to its weakest against the euro since the European currency was introduced in 1999. Sterling also slipped against the dollar to trade at just over $1.96.
The real risk is that it's going to get worse for house prices," said Adarsh Sinha of Barclays. "People are already bearish on sterling and getting more so."
The world's leading economic institution will today slash its UK growth forecasts and warns that Britain faces the weakest two years of growth since the last recession a decade and a half ago.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) will predict economic expansion of a mere 1.6pc both this year and in 2009 in its World Economic Outlook. As well as coming in significantly below the Treasury's projections, this is the weakest growth since the early 1990s.
It will embarrass the Chancellor Alistair Darling, who has already come under fire from the Treasury Select Committee for failing to take full account of the severity of the financial crisis in his first Budget.
The IMF forecasts severely undermine the Treasury's own projections for growth of 1.75pc-2.25pc this year and 2.25pc-2.75pc in 2009.
The IMF will also cut its forecast for United States growth this year and next to just 0.5pc and 0.6pc respectively, underlining the probability that the world's biggest economy is already in recession.
Overall world growth will be just 3.7pc, according to the figures, which were inadvertently published yesterday deep in a separate World Bank report.
They coincided with an IMF warning that the costs of the financial crisis are set to rocket to almost $1 trillion (£508bn) - higher than the Japanese banking collapse which caused a decade of stagnation.
A Treasury source denied that it was perturbed by the IMF forecast. "We set out our forecast for the UK economy in the Budget and we stand by that," he said. "The Treasury has an excellent forecasting record and we've outperformed the consensus of independent forecasters over the past 10 years.
"The UK grew faster than any other G7 country in 2007 and the IMF forecasts that it will do so again in 2008. And while it has revised down its forecast for economies across the world, we note that its revision for the UK is smaller than that for almost all other major economies, demonstrating the UK economy's resilience."
It is nevertheless a major adjustment - a full 0.7 percentage points lower than the IMF's forecast only six months ago.
Just a clip from another article, important for Norwegians Krone vs Brazilian Real (and other).
On one year Norwegian Krone is stronger vs :
Island (ISK) 27%
South Africa (Rand) 26%
Britain Pund Sterling 18%
USA (Dollar) 17%
Euro -2%
Norwegian Krone is weaker vs Brasilian Real:
Brasil (Real) 1%
Just for info.
New Low or High, depending on your viewpoint:
Today 04/17/08
per XE.com
1.00 USD = 1.66034 BRL
1 BRL = 0.602213 USD
The Dollar to the Euro, is almost like the Real to the Dollar :eek:
1.00 USD = 0.628162 EUR
1.00 EUR = 2.64304 BRL
1 BRL = 0.378352 EUR
Misinformation
04-19-08, 08:39
For smart Americans, a weak dollar is a good thing. For example, you plan $3000 spending money for 2 weeks. Before you travel, buy $2000 worth of stuff to take with you (camcorder, laptop, cell phone, digital camera like many tourists carry.). Check the prices for this stuff in Brazil, it is crazy. Bring this stuff with you and sell it for double. It is a good thing.
Misinformation
04-19-08, 09:01
$1=1.6R or 1.8R is reasonable. Leave Zona Sul in Rio and it is obvious. Everywhere you can get a cheeseburger for 1R. Cigarettes always were 2R. When $1=3.8 an ice cold beer on Copacabana beach was 1R. 28 cents. Motels always 69R or so for a crazy place. You have to admit $20 was robbery. Outside Sao Paulo or Zona Sul in Rio Brazil is still very affordable. We were just spoiled. I remember spending a week in Buzios in 2000. $35 a night for a suite w/ jacuzzi overlooking the beach. Gourmet meals for two with 2 bottles of wine for $50. Real was artificially low then. Now is more realistic.
For smart Americans, a weak dollar is a good thing. For example, you plan $3000 spending money for 2 weeks. Before you travel, buy $2000 worth of stuff to take with you (camcorder, laptop, cell phone, digital camera like many tourists carry.). Check the prices for this stuff in Brazil, it is crazy. Bring this stuff with you and sell it for double. It is a good thing.
Just out of interest, has anyone actually done this? I knew someone once who paid for his world travel by such ruses. But I've never considered it (and am yet to be convinced) that it would work easily and well in Brasil.
On another note, for those who like following the technical arguments over the strength of the real, several excellent articles on it in this weekend's Economist newspaper-magazine.
Exec Talent
04-20-08, 18:34
For smart Americans, a weak dollar is a good thing. For example, you plan $3000 spending money for 2 weeks. Before you travel, buy $2000 worth of stuff to take with you (camcorder, laptop, cell phone, digital camera like many tourists carry.). Check the prices for this stuff in Brazil, it is crazy. Bring this stuff with you and sell it for double. It is a good thing.
Demand. Ability to pay.
Brazilians may want all the items that you mentioned. Often the problem is ability to pay. Many times they pay for a shirt in 3 installments. Are you willing to finance?
Yeah, I've done this. Yep, their ability to pay is the problem. I know someone who has a small store. Even they have a problem paying me. (As they have to wait to sell the item first.) If I'm planning on staying a month, I'll do it again.
BTW, the Cariocas are crazy for Nike Skox running shoes, and Victoria Secrets lotions, and creams. Also stuffing enough items to finance a trip, may result in overweight baggage fees.
Then there's the problem of going through customs: Having a bag full of VS lotions and creams, may cause questions to be asked, which may ultimately result in taxes and fines being paid on the items.
There's a small question on the immigration form asking if items are being brought in for re-sale. I forget at what $R amount one has to declare these items.
Just out of interest, has anyone actually done this? I knew someone once who paid for his world travel by such ruses. But I've never considered it (and am yet to be convinced) that it would work easily and well in Brasil.
I also met guys who worked as professional tourists. The deal I was told is that many importers will pay tourists to go to the US for a week, buy all kinds of electronics, and then birng them back duty free. If they tried to import the stuff in bulk, they would have to pay large tariffs.
I can't see that being very economical now with the dollar so low. Many foreigners can just hop on a plane and buy stuff for themselves. There was more of a market when it was expensive to travel to the US.
Exec Talent
04-27-08, 12:24
1. exchange rate - L'uomo was giving 1.70 while my bank was only giving about 1.63 (I brought a lot of $US just for this purpose)
I got 1.72 at the Cambio without even asking. Probably could have gotten higher, but seemed fair given the official rate.
I also met guys who worked as professional tourists. The deal I was told is that many importers will pay tourists to go to the US for a week, buy all kinds of electronics, and then birng them back duty free. If they tried to import the stuff in bulk, they would have to pay large tariffs.
I can't see that being very economical now with the dollar so low. Many foreigners can just hop on a plane and buy stuff for themselves. There was more of a market when it was expensive to travel to the US.
It's interesting, the more you visit Brasil, the more likely you are to come across or make friends with someone who'll ask you to bring them something from the US. I've taken a laptop that was delivered to my house a year ago as part of my carry-on, and was paid $150. In a few weeks, I'll be traveling with 2 laptops.
I was in Centro, and noticed that they sell blank DVD's for about R$2 or R$3 each. I am considering taking about 10 packs of 100 DVD's and selling for about the same price. I'm think about R$250 for each 100. The worst scenario, I'll have a few left. I'll report on this when I return.
ryjer
Wild Cherokee
04-27-08, 15:20
I was in Centro, and noticed that they sell blank DVD's for about R$2 or R$3 each. I am considering taking about 10 packs of 100 DVD's and selling for about the same price. I'm think about R$250 for each 100
Excellent return rate considering that 100 can be purchased for US$25.
WC
It's interesting, the more you visit Brasil, the more likely you are to come across or make friends with someone who'll ask you to bring them something from the US. I've taken a laptop that was delivered to my house a year ago as part of my carry-on, and was paid $150. In a few weeks, I'll be traveling with 2 laptops.
I was in Centro, and noticed that they sell blank DVD's for about R$2 or R$3 each. I am considering taking about 10 packs of 100 DVD's and selling for about the same price. I'm think about R$250 for each 100. The worst scenario, I'll have a few left. I'll report on this when I return.
ryjerWhat will they say at customs when you come through with 2 laptops? I was in JA a few years ago and they insisted that I was bringing in things for friends and relatives. I don't know anybody in Jamaica.
What will they say at customs when you come through with 2 laptops?
On a trip to Brazil, customs asked to look at my laptop to see if it was new. They thought I was bringing in electronic stuff duty free. I am pretty sure they will take a very dim view of 1 person carrying 2 computers.
On a trip to Brazil, customs asked to look at my laptop to see if it was new. They thought I was bringing in electronic stuff duty free. I am pretty sure they will take a very dim view of 1 person carrying 2 computers.I kind of figured that.
I brought in 2 laptops once. 1 was in my carry on, the other in one of my checked bags. I got the green light and was not checked.
Only once in my 7 yrs to Brazil have all my bags been inspected. That time I had about 3 different digital cameras: SLR, Video and a Point and Shoot. The inspector asked if I was a professional photographer. He then let me through.
(Watch me get inspected on my next trip.) :(
I was in Centro, and noticed that they sell blank DVD's for about R$2 or R$3 each. I am considering taking about 10 packs of 100 DVD's and selling for about the same price. I'm think about R$250 for each 100. The worst scenario, I'll have a few left. I'll report on this when I return.
ryjerBlank DVD at Blockbuster is less than a real, and that is expensive, one single. You can get spools of them here cheap now. Bring RedBull.
I brought in 2 laptops once. 1 was in my carry on, the other in one of my checked bags. I got the green light and was not checked.
(I just came back last week with 3 laptops! I had a ton of stuff from the USA, all were my belongings and a lot of electronic stuff, and photos, things I just wanted here. I was waiting for one of my bags a long time, it had a used laptop that I had purchased for $150. Evidently the scan the luggage somewhere as they held it back and called me for inspection. However I was ready. I had a brand new laptop, the used one and my personal one. I also had my personal one reparied in the states. So I told them I had gone to the USA with 2 laptops (true one was very old and I gave to goodwill). I had my laptop repaired and had the slip to show, I said the new one was my wifes that I was useing when I was there (true but neglected to say I purchased it this trip, and I had the purchase slip for the used one $150. They looked through all of my stuff and were satisfied and let me proceed.
You can bring in up to $500 of stuff. Best bet if you want to make money is bring in a couple of used ones, they are cheap in the US (ebay).
Ironically, the guy beside me had one new laptop. He did not unwrap it, just said it was his personal machine that his company bought for him. Was not good, they made him pay something like $500 because it was valued at $1500. He should have said it was his company´s machine. I wanted to say something, but too risky given my 3 laptops.
So.. be prepared. Bring receipts, they are scanning the checked bags (the other guy was also pulled aside as his laptop was in the checked luggage, there were abut 10 of us in that situation.
I brought in 2 laptops once. 1 was in my carry on, the other in one of my checked bags.
Do you guys feel comfortable putting a computer and other valuables in your checked baggage? Do you feel there is a low rsk of damage as the bags are handled? Do you feel there is a low risk of theft when the bags are x-rayed by airport staff and the computers etc. detected? What countries are you guys flying from for you to have such confidence?
I fly to Brazil out of MIA. It is a third world airport, with third world staff and attitudes. I barely trust them with my underwear.
Yeah, I marvel that anyone would actually travel with checked bags (I haven't used checked baggage in years), and even more amazing, that someone would carry valuables in a checked bag!
Do you guys feel comfortable putting a computer and other valuables in your checked baggage? Do you feel there is a low rsk of damage as the bags are handled? Do you feel there is a low risk of theft when the bags are x-rayed by airport staff and the computers etc. detected? What countries are you guys flying from for you to have such confidence?
I have tralved a lot. 30some countries, now about 4 million air miles on American Airlines. I always check bags. I do not lock them. I have never had anything taken, and never had a lost bag. I used to fly out of the USA, now out of Brazil. I do not check anything that I cannot replace. I do check laptops, typically wrapped on t-shirts or something like that, not to hide it, but to protect it. Never anything broken.
Maybe I am just lucky, but after thousands of trips, no bad stories. Occasionally a bag will not be there (maybe 3 times in 20 years) but it was always because of a tight connection or me being late to the airport. Bags show up delivered in less than a day.
My 2 cents.
I read a news headline this evening. The Brazilian government is going to approve a $13 billion stimulation package aimed at increasing industrial production and exports. It will be in the form of tax cuts and export credits.
So, it seems that their high real is hurting the Brazilian economy. Personally, I think Brazil should lower its interest rates, rather than cut taxes. It needs to the tax revenue to continue building and improving its infrastructure. But I don't run a country so what I say doesn't count for much.
Member #2041
05-13-08, 02:54
Yeah, I marvel that anyone would actually travel with checked bags (I haven't used checked baggage in years), and even more amazing, that someone would carry valuables in a checked bag!
I used to go out of my way to not check any baggage, but now, since the U.S. has outlawed carrying fluids (at least anything over 3 ounces) in one's carry-ons, I generally am forced to check a bag. Of course, it's the height of foolishness to put significant valuables in a checked bag.
Poucolouco
05-13-08, 03:51
I read a news headline this evening. The Brazilian government is going to approve a $13 billion stimulation package aimed at increasing industrial production and exports. It will be in the form of tax cuts and export credits.
So, it seems that their high real is hurting the Brazilian economy. Personally, I think Brazil should lower its interest rates, rather than cut taxes. It needs to the tax revenue to continue building and improving its infrastructure. But I don't run a country so what I say doesn't count for much.IMHO if Brasil wants to increase exports they should reduce tariffs on imports, especially manufactured products. Asian-manufactured imported electronics and electro-domestic products are more than double the price they are in the U.S. to protect the domestic manufactured products in Brasil. Thus the Brazilian products are the price leader in Brasil. However, they are not competitive on the World market. The same holds true with cosmetics, personal hygiene products, and chemicals.
That being said, I would cheer for an effective policy that will lower the value of the real.
It's interesting, the more you visit Brasil, the more likely you are to come across or make friends with someone who'll ask you to bring them something from the US. I've taken a laptop that was delivered to my house a year ago as part of my carry-on, and was paid $150. In a few weeks, I'll be traveling with 2 laptops.
I was in Centro, and noticed that they sell blank DVD's for about R$2 or R$3 each. I am considering taking about 10 packs of 100 DVD's and selling for about the same price. I'm think about R$250 for each 100. The worst scenario, I'll have a few left. I'll report on this when I return.
ryjer
You must be making some mistake. I have bought a year ago from Uruguiana market in centro 50 virgem (blank) DVD pack for 60 reais. It comes to 1,2each.
No name ones are even cheaper
For things like that always shop there.
I just came back last week with 3 laptops! I had a ton of stuff from the USA, all were my belongings and a lot of electronic stuff, and photos, things I just wanted here. I was waiting for one of my bags a long time, it had a used laptop that I had purchased for $150. Evidently the scan the luggage somewhere as they held it back and called me for inspection. However I was ready. I had a brand new laptop, the used one and my personal one. I also had my personal one reparied in the states. So I told them I had gone to the USA with 2 laptops (true one was very old and I gave to goodwill). I had my laptop repaired and had the slip to show, I said the new one was my wifes that I was useing when I was there (true but neglected to say I purchased it this trip, and I had the purchase slip for the used one $150. They looked through all of my stuff and were satisfied and let me proceed.
You can bring in up to $500 of stuff. Best bet if you want to make money is bring in a couple of used ones, they are cheap in the US (ebay).
Ironically, the guy beside me had one new laptop. He did not unwrap it, just said it was his personal machine that his company bought for him. Was not good, they made him pay something like $500 because it was valued at $1500. He should have said it was his company´s machine. I wanted to say something, but too risky given my 3 laptops.
So.. be prepared. Bring receipts, they are scanning the checked bags (the other guy was also pulled aside as his laptop was in the checked luggage, there were abut 10 of us in that situation.
The first time I brought a laptop to Brasil I declared it. The customs officer asked me if it was for my personal use. I told him yes. Then he asked me to write on the declaration form "For my personal use" and he told me to write this always in the future.
I never carried a second laptop with me but I do curry a lot of different small electronics such as MP3, camera, wireless modem, vonage type modem and phone and 3-4 cellphones with their chargers and adaptors. I always declare everything and write the personal use note in big capital letters.
I never had a problem and they never stoped me or asked me any question for them. They are all used of course. Not brand new.
On the other hand I never place in my checked baggage anything that I can not afford to loose. All of the above stay with me at all times.
You need to be very careful bringing any new electronics into Brazil now. They now scan carry on luggage before you get to the passport stampers. I had a brand new laptop and got hassled major time. That were really difficult accusing me of going to sell it, it was only when i actually read their own form back to them IE " foreigners can bring into the country goods up to $3000 that are going to be taken out of the country ". They were just rediculous, they had no respect for their own law which.
Adding to this, they scan every checked bag as it comes off the plane. This is a major pain in the ass as well because they flag some pretty basic stuff a certain amount of creams or perfumes in your bag will get your bag stopped. A heap of electronics will definitely get your bag stopped. Any larger than normal quantities of the same goods will get your bag stopped.
All this is just stupid on their part because the border at Paraguay is basically open and tax free goods are brought in by the truck load.
Basically all goods into brazil get taxed at 60% - 80%. The most inefficient economy in the world = BRAZIL.
Member #2041
05-13-08, 15:44
Basically all goods into brazil get taxed at 60% - 80%. The most inefficient economy in the world = BRAZIL.
Not as long as Argentina is a sovereign country, it isn't.
you need to be very careful bringing any new electronics into brazil now. they now scan carry on luggage before you get to the passport stampers. i had a brand new laptop and got hassled major time. that were really difficult accusing me of going to sell it, it was only when i actually read their own form back to them ie " foreigners can bring into the country goods up to $3000 that are going to be taken out of the country ". they were just rediculous, they had no respect for their own law which.
adding to this, they scan every checked bag as it comes off the plane. this is a major pain in the ass as well because they flag some pretty basic stuff a certain amount of creams or perfumes in your bag will get your bag stopped. a heap of electronics will definitely get your bag stopped. any larger than normal quantities of the same goods will get your bag stopped.
all this is just stupid on their part because the border at paraguay is basically open and tax free goods are brought in by the truck load.
basically all goods into brazil get taxed at 60% - 80%. the most inefficient economy in the world = brazil.
its true that they scan the bags. i brought a bag in with 2 half gallons of apple pucker and 8 cans of tuna. my bag was held at customs and after they inspected it, they said the tuna was not allow and was confirep001ed. for which they gave me a receipt.
Wandering Fool
05-14-08, 16:20
its true that they scan the bags. i brought a bag in with 2 half gallons of apple pucker and 8 cans of tuna. my bag was held at customs and after they inspected it, they said the tuna was not allow and was confirep001ed. for which they gave me a receipt.
damn, they're not allowing tuna???? what's the point in going to brazil then!
:)
just curious, what's with the tuna?
Member #2041
05-14-08, 17:17
Damn, they're not allowing Tuna???? What's the point in going to Brazil then!
:)
Just curious, what's with the tuna?
The point is, bringing tuna to Brazil is like bringing coals to Newcastle, or bringing snow to Antarctica.
Poucolouco
05-14-08, 22:41
The point is, bringing tuna to Brazil is like bringing coals to Newcastle, or bringing snow to Antarctica.Well, when you crave pussy and don't want to pay for a GDP you can open a can of tuna.
Btw, they sell it in Pão de Açúcar for R$4,00 a can. In the U.S. it's only a dollar (R$1.66.)
A gallon of Apple Pucker and 8 cans of tuna!
Is this a classic or what?
There is an article about Brazil in today's Bloomberg. The url is 'http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=a3uR3TWEU4Q8&refer=home' .
The gist of it is that some top bankers in Brazil feel that Brazil's economy is going to continue to grow at a good rate this year and next. Inflation is expected to remain low. The Brazil central bank just raised interest rates so its currency will remain strong against the dollar for the next few years as well.
Furthermore, one banker said that because US and European banks were hurt by the sub-prime loan debacle, the Brazilian bank's opportuntities have grown. Brazil banks were not hurt by the bad loans so the best run of them are in good condition to compete with the bigger US and European banks.
Business is so good that individual banks hired hundreds of new staff in 2007. They are hiring more this year. Anybody get recently laid off from Wall Street? You might find a good job in Sao Paulo, Brazil!!!
A gallon of Apple Pucker and 8 cans of tuna!
Is this a classic or what?
That's what I call the high life :D
Brazil Real Rises as Rate Outlook Improves Yield Advantage
By Adriana Brasileiro
May 27 (Bloomberg) -- Brazil's real rose on speculation the central bank will increase interest rates this year to curb inflation, widening the yield differential offered by local fixed-income assets.
The real rose 0.1 percent to 1.6567 per dollar at 9:29 a.m. New York time compared with 1.6587 per dollar yesterday.
``Investment coming in to take advantage of our interest- rates is the factor supporting the real at these levels,'' said Jorge Knauer, manager of the foreign-exchange trading desk at Rio de Janeiro-based Banco Prosper SA.
Brazil's central bank will raise the benchmark interest rate to 13.5 percent this year, higher than previously forecast, as inflation accelerates, the central bank's weekly survey of 100 economists showed yesterday. The benchmark Selic rate is currently 11.75 percent. When adjusted for inflation, Brazil's real interest rate of 6.71 percent, the difference between the benchmark and inflation rates, is the world's highest.
The yield on Brazil's interest-rate futures contract for January 2010 delivery, the maturity with the highest trading volume, rose 8 basis points, or 0.08 percentage point, to 14.55 percent. Central bankers are next scheduled to meet on June 3-4. The U.S. overnight rate is 2 percent.
The yield on the government's zero-coupon bond due January 2010 rose 4 basis points to 14.6 percent, according to Banco Bradesco SA.
Estimates for inflation climbed to 5.24 percent for 2008 from 5.12 percent in last week's survey, and to 4.73 percent for 12-month inflation from 4.65 percent last week, the survey showed.
Last Updated: May 27, 2008 09:30 EDT
You need to be very careful bringing any new electronics into Brazil now. They now scan carry on luggage before you get to the passport stampers. I had a brand new laptop and got hassled major time. That were really difficult accusing me of going to sell it, it was only when i actually read their own form back to them IE " foreigners can bring into the country goods up to $3000 that are going to be taken out of the country ". They were just rediculous, they had no respect for their own law which.
Adding to this, they scan every checked bag as it comes off the plane. This is a major pain in the ass as well because they flag some pretty basic stuff a certain amount of creams or perfumes in your bag will get your bag stopped. A heap of electronics will definitely get your bag stopped. Any larger than normal quantities of the same goods will get your bag stopped.
All this is just stupid on their part because the border at Paraguay is basically open and tax free goods are brought in by the truck load.
Basically all goods into brazil get taxed at 60% - 80%. The most inefficient economy in the world = BRAZIL.Same here, came into GIG and it was one of the first times I had ever been asked to goto the x-ray scan belt with my carry-ons before going out to the taxi-counters. The bi-atch basically asked me if this was my bag (as the post menopausal moron watched me put the damn bag thru) after it came out. I said yes, grabbed the bag and never even looked at her as I walked out. I think she was stunned by my lack of explanation or hesitation but I have no fking patience for this BS. Yes, I had two laptops but the kicker is I had registered both of them upon my last departure from GIG. If you carry two (business + personal) it is a good idea to go downstairs near the police station and have them both registered. Or any elec good for that matter that you regularly travel with.
And as far as this nonsense about a strong economy in Brazil defined in part by the decline in the currency rate against the dollar, it’s all BS as usual in Brazil. There is a misconception among economists worldwide that the recent credit boom is helping to generate a stronger GDP (ahhhh, wrong acronym dude).come back and try to convince someone of that farce when Brazil becomes worse off than the US with its own sub prime mortgage woes and debt ridden economy. I can promise you it will take a third of the time to get this country in the same shape economically as the US. Sure consumer confidence is climbing at a neck breaking pace, but how could you expect otherwise when you just handed a bunch of Brazilians a blank check.
And if anyone thinks Brazil is one of the most self-sustaining countries in the world, come back in 4-5 years when the power plants don't have enough access to gas supplies to run their power plants and the blackouts become much more frequent over time. Brazil is oil rich, not gas rich. There is a difference in how this plays out over time. This caca about the Tupi Sol field holding 8 billion in reserves is propaganda. But theres a catch. You gotta get it to surface first and the combined intellect of Petrobras has just enough brainpower to get to work without getting lost. Kinda reminds me of the middle east some time ago, but thats another story.
But as long as I'm here, I'll happily bang as much GDP (yeah guys, insert pun here) into the system as I can stand. After all, why even come to Brazil if you can't contribute to the local economy effectively.
C1
Alex Deuce
06-07-08, 23:06
Same here, came into GIG and it was one of the first times I had ever been asked to goto the x-ray scan belt with my carry-ons before going out to the taxi-counters. The bi-atch basically asked me if this was my bag (as the post menopausal moron watched me put the damn bag thru) after it came out. I said yes, grabbed the bag and never even looked at her as I walked out. I think she was stunned by my lack of explanation or hesitation but I have no fking patience for this BS. Yes, I had two laptops but the kicker is I had registered both of them upon my last departure from GIG. If you carry two (business + personal) it is a good idea to go downstairs near the police station and have them both registered. Or any elec good for that matter that you regularly travel with.
And as far as this nonsense about a strong economy in Brazil defined in part by the decline in the currency rate against the dollar, it’s all BS as usual in Brazil. There is a misconception among economists worldwide that the recent credit boom is helping to generate a stronger GDP (ahhhh, wrong acronym dude).come back and try to convince someone of that farce when Brazil becomes worse off than the US with its own sub prime mortgage woes and debt ridden economy. I can promise you it will take a third of the time to get this country in the same shape economically as the US. Sure consumer confidence is climbing at a neck breaking pace, but how could you expect otherwise when you just handed a bunch of Brazilians a blank check.
And if anyone thinks Brazil is one of the most self-sustaining countries in the world, come back in 4-5 years when the power plants don't have enough access to gas supplies to run their power plants and the blackouts become much more frequent over time. Brazil is oil rich, not gas rich. There is a difference in how this plays out over time. This caca about the Tupi Sol field holding 8 billion in reserves is propaganda. But theres a catch. You gotta get it to surface first and the combined intellect of Petrobras has just enough brainpower to get to work without getting lost. Kinda reminds me of the middle east some time ago, but thats another story.
But as long as I'm here, I'll happily bang as much GDP (yeah guys, insert pun here) into the system as I can stand. After all, why even come to Brazil if you can't contribute to the local economy effectively.
C1
The above statement makes about as much sense as saying the Saudi kingdom will go broke when oil prices normalize.
Brazils economy is vibrant, balanced in terms of business growth and ensuring the proper development of a middle class. Their reliance on oil is shrinking as ours is increasing. Their domestic energy policy started the turn away from oil years before our lobby laden "beauracrazy" even thought of it. lt has done a tremendous job of protecting their local economy/internal labor as they venture on to the world stage. Brazil is a major producer of commodity goods necessary for sustaining the american food supply as well as a multitude of natural raw goods needed by all industrial societies.
You make a deeply republican assumption that regulation and tight monetary policy (strong Real) is bad thing. Hmmmmm, I wonder where Lula got the idea of maintaining a strong currency from? Use to be the American way if I do recall. So lets see; I maintain my currency. I take the gains from the change in dollar value of my exports and i pocket them in my treasury for further capital infrastructure investments. Makes sense to me!
And let us also look at why there is a budget surplus and why he is attempting to raise it 4.3% of GDP. You think that is a number he pulled out of his Ass. As i digress, you also assume that having high short terms rates is bad. However, you neglect to mention that there is high liquidity due to government and foreign investors. As well as the increase in government revenues. I submit to you, that when the market is a flush with capital investment funds, why would you have a low rate? Why pump more money in a market that has enough liquidity to fund private capital expenditures in conjunction with government funding/debt. (Don't start on that world bank shit) Sounds like the former shoe shine boy kinda knows a lil something. Remember, high hurdle rates for access to capital generally lead to more thoughtful examination of the sought enterprise. In English "This gone cost a lot a money, i better make sure my shit is right"
Point being; as i have said before, our old paradigms are not applicable in the current global economy. The worlds reliance on Brazils resources will keep the country growing regardless of the state of the US or other countries economies. Inflation is a worry for Brazil as INTERNAL demand for goods from the emerging middle class places pressure on supply. Whether have inflation from internal demand that from devaluation of currency and oil.
Clandestine782
06-08-08, 00:21
You should do a little bit of looking.
1. "Resource Paradox." This points out how countries with large amounts of natural resources seem to remain broke. (Africa, anyone?)
2. The policy of the US with respect to the US currency is one of one BENIGN NEGLECT. They don't do anything about it one way or another (the last time was the Plaza accord agreement, and that was SOME time ago). So, it is not appropriate to say that the US has a policy of a strong national currency.
3. Strong currencies come with their own disadvantages. You can't devalue your way to prosperity (they've tried that in Latin America), but nor can an overvalued currency solve every problem.
4. Inflation is a money supply issue ONLY (Milton Friedman said something like "Inflation is always and everywhere a money supply issue."). It really is just that simple.
The above statement makes about as much sense as saying the Saudi kingdom will go broke when oil prices normalize.
Brazils economy is vibrant, balanced in terms of business growth and ensuring the proper development of a middle class. Their reliance on oil is shrinking as ours is increasing. Their domestic energy policy started the turn away from oil years before our lobby laden "beauracrazy" even thought of it. lt has done a tremendous job of protecting their local economy/internal labor as they venture on to the world stage. Brazil is a major producer of commodity goods necessary for sustaining the american food supply as well as a multitude of natural raw goods needed by all industrial societies.
You make a deeply republican assumption that regulation and tight monetary policy (strong Real) is bad thing. Hmmmmm, I wonder where Lula got the idea of maintaining a strong currency from? Use to be the American way if I do recall. So lets see; I maintain my currency. I take the gains from the change in dollar value of my exports and i pocket them in my treasury for further capital infrastructure investments. Makes sense to me!
And let us also look at why there is a budget surplus and why he is attempting to raise it 4.3% of GDP. You think that is a number he pulled out of his Ass. As i digress, you also assume that having high short terms rates is bad. However, you neglect to mention that there is high liquidity due to government and foreign investors. As well as the increase in government revenues. I submit to you, that when the market is a flush with capital investment funds, why would you have a low rate? Why pump more money in a market that has enough liquidity to fund private capital expenditures in conjunction with government funding/debt. (Don't start on that world bank shit) Sounds like the former shoe shine boy kinda knows a lil something. Remember, high hurdle rates for access to capital generally lead to more thoughtful examination of the sought enterprise. In English "This gone cost a lot a money, i better make sure my shit is right"
Point being; as i have said before, our old paradigms are not applicable in the current global economy. The worlds reliance on Brazils resources will keep the country growing regardless of the state of the US or other countries economies. Inflation is a worry for Brazil as INTERNAL demand for goods from the emerging middle class places pressure on supply. Whether have inflation from internal demand that from devaluation of currency and oil.
I agree with some things said is this forum post but not all.
Yes Brazil is growing but we are all missing the point.
With regards to currencies and devaluations. I said this on another site and I am going to say it here. The dollar is still a major currency and is in mostly every country's coffers as reserves. So if the dollar declines by 46% then the backing of those countries currencies decline by 46%. So we are all in trouble with this respect. dollars are held by most central banks as reserves so think about it.
Right now no other currency is suitable to replace the dollar as a reserve currency. Some say the Euro but the Euro is not as liquid as the dollar. And on its 10th anniversary the Euro has never experience any major economic crises as the U.S has like 1987, 2001, 1970's etc.... I also expect the euro to break apart in the coming years as some Euro land countries are saying the Euro is too strong and is effecting exports and there is a serious housing crises in Spain which is much worst than the U.S. The Euro is only as strong as its member coutries.
So a weak dollar is bad for the world at the moment.
Also with regard to oil. We here are also missing the point. We peaked in world oil priduction May 2005. emerging economies can't grow unless there is access to oil. For the first time in 2008 world oil demand is outstripping supply. World demad is at 87 mbd and supply is at 85 mbd.
You do the math.....
Nobody in the U.S or in the world is picking up on this. Ever since May 2005 world oil production has been on a steady decline.
World GDP is at 4% and world oil supply is at 1% something has got to give
Brazil was smart in aqcuiring most of the oil rigs in the world, but going foward I am questioning growth rates in many emerging economies like China, India, Russia, Brazil etc...
The world depends on oil for growth and effects everything we do in the world.
Ethanol is not an option
Alternatives are good but are not seen as anything to replace oil.
We have a liquid fuels problem
You can't fly a plane with solar or batteries.
You can't use food to supply energy or else prices in crops will rise.
I am not sure why peaking of oil production is not in the mainstream media yet? But I guess america is still stuck on stupid. I am sorry to say that as a proud American. But the people are blaming a weak dollar, speculators etc.... and trying to tax oil companies and not realizing its a supply and demand issue.
Also America and Brazil is one of the few countries that withstand a food crises as we are experiencing throughout the world, because of agricultural land and corn exports.
You should do a little bit of looking.
1. "Resource Paradox." This points out how countries with large amounts of natural resources seem to remain broke. (Africa, anyone?)
2. The policy of the US with respect to the US currency is one of one BENIGN NEGLECT. They don't do anything about it one way or another (the last time was the Plaza accord agreement, and that was SOME time ago). So, it is not appropriate to say that the US has a policy of a strong national currency.
3. Strong currencies come with their own disadvantages. You can't devalue your way to prosperity (they've tried that in Latin America), but nor can an overvalued currency solve every problem.
4. Inflation is a money supply issue ONLY (Milton Friedman said something like "Inflation is always and everywhere a money supply issue."). It really is just that simple.
I agree with some things said is this forum post but not all.
Yes Brazil is growing but we are all missing the point.
With regards to currencies and devaluations. I said this on another site and I am going to say it here. The dollar is still a major currency and is in mostly every country's coffers as reserves. So if the dollar declines by 46% then the backing of those countries currencies decline by 46%. So we are all in trouble with this respect. dollars are held by most central banks as reserves so think about it.
Right now no other currency is suitable to replace the dollar as a reserve currency. Some say the Euro but the Euro is not as liquid as the dollar. And on its 10th anniversary the Euro has never experience any major economic crises as the U.S has like 1987, 2001, 1970's etc.... I also expect the euro to break apart in the coming years as some Euro land countries are saying the Euro is too strong and is effecting exports and there is a serious housing crises in Spain which is much worst than the U.S. The Euro is only as strong as its member coutries.
So a weak dollar is bad for the world at the moment.
Also with regard to oil. We here are also missing the point. We peaked in world oil priduction May 2005. emerging economies can't grow unless there is access to oil. For the first time in 2008 world oil demand is outstripping supply. World demad is at 87 mbd and supply is at 85 mbd.
You do the math.....
Nobody in the U.S or in the world is picking up on this. Ever since May 2005 world oil production has been on a steady decline.
World GDP is at 4% and world oil supply is at 1% something has got to give
Brazil was smart in aqcuiring most of the oil rigs in the world, but going foward I am questioning growth rates in many emerging economies like China, India, Russia, Brazil etc...
The world depends on oil for growth and effects everything we do in the world.
Ethanol is not an option
Alternatives are good but are not seen as anything to replace oil.
We have a liquid fuels problem
You can't fly a plane with solar or batteries.
You can't use food to supply energy or else prices in crops will rise.
I am not sure why peaking of oil production is not in the mainstream media yet? But I guess america is still stuck on stupid. I am sorry to say that as a proud American. But the people are blaming a weak dollar, speculators etc.... and trying to tax oil companies and not realizing its a supply and demand issue.
Also America and Brazil is one of the few countries that withstand a food crises as we are experiencing throughout the world, because of agricultural land and corn exports.
Brazil Real Rises as Rate Outlook Improves Yield Advantage
By Adriana Brasileiro
May 27 (Bloomberg) -- Brazil's real rose on speculation the central bank will increase interest rates this year to curb inflation, widening the yield differential offered by local fixed-income assets.
The real rose 0.1 percent to 1.6567 per dollar at 9:29 a.m. New York time compared with 1.6587 per dollar yesterday.
``Investment coming in to take advantage of our interest- rates is the factor supporting the real at these levels,'' said Jorge Knauer, manager of the foreign-exchange trading desk at Rio de Janeiro-based Banco Prosper SA.
Brazil's central bank will raise the benchmark interest rate to 13.5 percent this year, higher than previously forecast, as inflation accelerates, the central bank's weekly survey of 100 economists showed yesterday. The benchmark Selic rate is currently 11.75 percent. When adjusted for inflation, Brazil's real interest rate of 6.71 percent, the difference between the benchmark and inflation rates, is the world's highest.
The yield on Brazil's interest-rate futures contract for January 2010 delivery, the maturity with the highest trading volume, rose 8 basis points, or 0.08 percentage point, to 14.55 percent. Central bankers are next scheduled to meet on June 3-4. The U.S. overnight rate is 2 percent.
The yield on the government's zero-coupon bond due January 2010 rose 4 basis points to 14.6 percent, according to Banco Bradesco SA.
Estimates for inflation climbed to 5.24 percent for 2008 from 5.12 percent in last week's survey, and to 4.73 percent for 12-month inflation from 4.65 percent last week, the survey showed.
Last Updated: May 27, 2008 09:30 EDT
Inflation is an increase in the countries money supply.
If anyone believes a government inflation statistic than you don't know the true inflation.
In the U.S they exclude food and energy and housing, when you remove these items you are no longer measuring inflation. You are measuring something else. Its almost baffling why almost no one is asking why this data is excluded when these items are rising the most.
Alex Deuce
06-08-08, 03:56
you should do a little bit of looking.
1. "resource paradox." this points out how countries with large amounts of natural resources seem to remain broke. (africa, anyone?)
2. the policy of the us with respect to the us currency is one of one benign neglect. they don't do anything about it one way or another (the last time was the plaza accord agreement, and that was some time ago). so, it is not appropriate to say that the us has a policy of a strong national currency.
3. strong currencies come with their own disadvantages. you can't devalue your way to prosperity (they've tried that in latin america), but nor can an overvalued currency solve every problem.
4. inflation is a money supply issue only (milton friedman said something like "inflation is always and everywhere a money supply issue."). it really is just that simple.
1.this paradox relies on the premiss that the host country actually controls said resources and the infrastructure to get them to market. in the case of africa very few of the countries controlled the resources, had the worker knowledge/skill base in which to harvest these resources nor had the infrastructure to get it to market. (you wanna talk about the [CodeWord123] (http://isgprohibitedwords.info?CodeWord=CodeWord123) and pillage of africa? i have a couple of days) brazil has total control over its resource and is building said infrastructure. growth of workers wages, control of inflation and development of a viable skilled and unskilled working class in which to harvest these resource has been lulas mantra as he has moved forward. hello! labor party!
2. benign neglect is a jr policy. aka president dumb ass. strong dollar was a staple of the reagan, bush sr. and clinton administrations. look at fed, treasury and admin response to the drops in value of the dollar during their tenures. strenuous defense of the dollar to the point of raising rates and limiting circulation. and i know your not going to even try to say ole ronnie did not defend the dollar to the point of brink of domestic ruin. cutting taxes starving domestic programs and building up our defense. it is part and parcel of why ole gw sr had to raise taxes to get the us government going again. as he yelled and screamed "lower them rates" thinking it would spur job creation and increase revenue for the us coffers. greenspans first great move. ignore the bush!
3. a strong currency coupled with real gdp growth is always a good thing. the strength of the economy is suppose to be represented in the value of the currency. a low currency could be advantageous if the us actually made something. increasing demand for low cost goods. as we don't make products here anymore and import the majority of our goods, a week currency its extremely inflationary without a change in money supply! just a change in the exchange rate. if inflation truly is a derivative of a change in money supply. how come inflation was held at bay in the clinton years as the treasury pumped billions in to the market.
4. duuuhg! inflation occurs when people have money to buy shit and compete for resources. friedman has quantified this several times in interview after interview. demand is the driving force of any enterprise. supply without demand is like harold without the blue notes. brazils price index is rising due to an increased supply of cash period in the emerging middle class creating demand for everything under the sun! see: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/6993546.stm
dude, in the above four points you just made my case for me. thanks!
actually, im not saying that brazil is going to be the next great super power. im saying that it is a developing country that will go through some drastic changes in the next few years that probably will lead to increases in the price of bunda! im in the dominican republic so what do i know!
Inflation is an increase in the countries money supply.
If anyone believes a government inflation statistic than you don't know the true inflation.
In the U.S they exclude food and energy and housing, when you remove these items you are no longer measuring inflation. You are measuring something else. Its almost baffling why almost no one is asking why this data is excluded when these items are rising the most.
Do you guys have a multitude of economics degrees?
I studied business in college and remember some stuff about inflation. I agree most with Alex.
I remember that Milton said that inflation is a problem of money supply, but that is not the whole story. Money is needed for people to make their purchases. (We are beyond barter!) When there are more purchases to be made, ie more GDP, then more money is needed to support trade. Money supply growth is supposed to equal GDP growth. Inflation occurs when money supply grows faster than GDP, so inflation is a problem of excess money supply growth.
Most inflation is not problematic, and is even desirable at low levels. Problem inflation occurs when governments try to finance their budget deficits by printing money as this leads to highly excessive money supply growth.
There are several inflation measures, ML, with each one serving a particular purpose. For example, there is the CPI for consumers that includes imports and excludes exports, there is the PPI for producers, there is another one for goods produced in the US so it includes exports and excludes imports. The core CPI excludes energy and food in order to see what prices are doing when the most volatile goods are excluded, otherwise they get over shadowed.
Housing prices are in fact included in the CPI in a round-about way. Houses are treated as investments, not goods, so actual house prices are excluded from the CPI. The residential services that a house provides each year is considered to be a good, so the equivalent price of renting a house is included inthe CPI.
These facts about inflation would only be baffling to someone who was not taught macroeconomics very well.
Do you guys have a multitude of economics degrees?
I studied business in college and remember some stuff about inflation. I agree most with Alex.
I remember that Milton said that inflation is a problem of money supply, but that is not the whole story. Money is needed for people to make their purchases. (We are beyond barter!) When there are more purchases to be made, ie more GDP, then more money is needed to support trade. Money supply growth is supposed to equal GDP growth. Inflation occurs when money supply grows faster than GDP, so inflation is a problem of excess money supply growth.
Most inflation is not problematic, and is even desirable at low levels. Problem inflation occurs when governments try to finance their budget deficits by printing money as this leads to highly excessive money supply growth.
There are several inflation measures, ML, with each one serving a particular purpose. For example, there is the CPI for consumers that includes imports and excludes exports, there is the PPI for producers, there is another one for goods produced in the US so it includes exports and excludes imports. The core CPI excludes energy and food in order to see what prices are doing when the most volatile goods are excluded, otherwise they get over shadowed.
Housing prices are in fact included in the CPI in a round-about way. Houses are treated as investments, not goods, so actual house prices are excluded from the CPI. The residential services that a house provides each year is considered to be a good, so the equivalent price of renting a house is included inthe CPI.
These facts about inflation would only be baffling to someone who was not taught macroeconomics very well.
Like you just said inflation is an increase in the money supply. Too much money chasing too few goods.
Also with food energy etc.... this is what we as consumers purchase everyday so why exclude them if they are volatile?
The Goverment has found its way to cook books and lie about the true rate of inflation. No one believes the core rate, because no one pays the core rate in daily living.
Alex Deuce
06-08-08, 16:13
Like you just said inflation is an increase in the money supply. Too much money chasing too few goods.
Also with food energy etc.... this is what we as consumers purchase everyday so why exclude them if they are volatile?
The Goverment has found its way to cook books and lie about the true rate of inflation. No one believes the core rate, because no one pays the core rate in daily living.
The term is demand. Actually looking at enterprises in the terms of is there a Demand for these goods or services and is there adequate supply to foster this demand is what everyone is missing. Money supply is just one determinative coefficient of the equation. We keep forgetting the business cycle
Recognize Demand for given service or business
Finance the capital resources needed
Invest the capital in resources needed to satisfy demand
Operate your business in a manor the efficiently satisfies demand
Finance growth bassed on efficient operations that satisfy demand
Re Invest in capital resources needed to meet current demand
Continued operation of a efficient and profitable business
else close up shop as it no longer a going concern
Any thing else is supply side economics and has failed miserably in every instance. Excess supply of capital leads to inflation, devaluation of the current and risky ventures that should have never been funded. IE see Bush Administration. O yeah, I hate Bush!
As we all know, money follows money. Every bank, investor and fund is looking for the highest rate of return on investment. When there is high liquidity and money is cheap (Low cost of capital) returns are always going to be low. We have companies cutting needed staff outsourcing jobs and moving facilities oversees just to do one thing. INCREASE RETURNS ON SHAREHOLDER VALUE. Greenspan warned and warned this administration about this from the outset.
And I agree, the government books are cooked for CPI and unemployment. The US unemployment rate is somewhere around 6-7% percent and factoring in underemployment is somewhere around 9%.
And I agree, the government books are cooked for CPI and unemployment. The US unemployment rate is somewhere around 6-7% percent and factoring in underemployment is somewhere around 9%.
I'm out on inflation.
Now unemployment is whole other ball of wax! It depends on who is considered to be in the labor force, as only labor force participants can be unemployed. Then there is the question of what a job is. The CPS, which is used to compute to unemployment rate, asks if a person worked at least 1 hour a week for pay in the prior 2 weeks. If yes, then you had a job! So if you work one day a week, you are considered employed and won't be in the statistic. But is that a real job in terms of being able to support oneself???
There is lots of underemployment with people working less hours than they want or in jobs that are well below their qualifications, like engineers driving taxis.
My beef is that all the undocumented workers are not counted. So all those construction companies and contractors that relied on Mexican labor to build houses during the boom have now gone bankrupt. But what happened to their workers????? The unemployment rate didn't budge. Where did thay go??? Well, they went back to Mexico! I am sure many of the vacant and foreclosed homes in my neighborhood are homes that were abandoned by undocumented workers who simply went back home when their jobs dried up. That is not reflect in any unemployment stat and I think has lead the government to underestimate the current economic slowdown.
Alex Deuce
06-08-08, 17:03
I'm out on inflation.
Now unemployment is whole other ball of wax! It depends on who is considered to be in the labor force, as only labor force participants can be unemployed. Then there is the question of what a job is. The CPS, which is used to compute to unemployment rate, asks if a person worked at least 1 hour a week for pay in the prior 2 weeks. If yes, then you had a job! So if you work one day a week, you are considered employed and won't be in the statistic. But is that a real job in terms of being able to support oneself???
There is lots of underemployment with people working less hours than they want or in jobs that are well below their qualifications, like engineers driving taxis.
My beef is that all the undocumented workers are not counted. So all those construction companies and contractors that relied on Mexican labor to build houses during the boom have now gone bankrupt. But what happened to their workers????? The unemployment rate didn't budge. Where did thay go??? Well, they went back to Mexico! I am sure many of the vacant and foreclosed homes in my neighborhood are homes that were abandoned by undocumented workers who simply went back home when their jobs dried up. That is not reflect in any unemployment stat and I think has lead the government to underestimate the current economic slowdown.
George i have to agree with you on that one. I use to work for a lot of construction companies doing congruence for the city. Your observation is 100% correct. I have friends that have small projects to finish and they say when they do a hire there are very few hispanics that show up. Where in the past the entire lot was hispanic.
Clandestine782
06-08-08, 19:47
1.this paradox relies on the premiss that the host country actually controls said resources and the infrastructure to get them to market. in the case of africa very few of the countries controlled the resources, had the worker knowledge/skill base in which to harvest these resources nor had the infrastructure to get it to market. (you wanna talk about the [CodeWord123] (http://isgprohibitedwords.info?CodeWord=CodeWord123) and pillage of africa? i have a couple of days) brazil has total control over its resource and is building said infrastructure. growth of workers wages, control of inflation and development of a viable skilled and unskilled working class in which to harvest these resource has been lulas mantra as he has moved forward. hello! labor party!
2. benign neglect is a jr policy. aka president dumb ass. strong dollar was a staple of the reagan, bush sr. and clinton administrations. look at fed, treasury and admin response to the drops in value of the dollar during their tenures. strenuous defense of the dollar to the point of raising rates and limiting circulation. and i know your not going to even try to say ole ronnie did not defend the dollar to the point of brink of domestic ruin. cutting taxes starving domestic programs and building up our defense. it is part and parcel of why ole gw sr had to raise taxes to get the us government going again. as he yelled and screamed "lower them rates" thinking it would spur job creation and increase revenue for the us coffers. greenspans first great move. ignore the bush!
3. a strong currency coupled with real gdp growth is always a good thing. the strength of the economy is suppose to be represented in the value of the currency. a low currency could be advantageous if the us actually made something. increasing demand for low cost goods. as we don't make products here anymore and import the majority of our goods, a week currency its extremely inflationary without a change in money supply! just a change in the exchange rate. if inflation truly is a derivative of a change in money supply. how come inflation was held at bay in the clinton years as the treasury pumped billions in to the market.
4. duuuhg! inflation occurs when people have money to buy shit and compete for resources. friedman has quantified this several times in interview after interview. demand is the driving force of any enterprise. supply without demand is like harold without the blue notes. brazils price index is rising due to an increased supply of cash period in the emerging middle class creating demand for everything under the sun! see: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/6993546.stm
dude, in the above four points you just made my case for me. thanks!
actually, im not saying that brazil is going to be the next great super power. im saying that it is a developing country that will go through some drastic changes in the next few years that probably will lead to increases in the price of bunda! im in the dominican republic so what do i know!
1. africa did not have control over its natural resources because they could not set up a stable enough government. i think that the resource paradox is a cause of their not being able to get that infrastructure together rather than needing to define a special case under which the resource paradox is true.
2. actually benign neglect has been the policy of the government since the nixon era (you really need to go over your notes on this-- that was the manifest function of going off the bretton woods standard). and it is really the right choice (independent of george bush), because most currency pegs fail over the long run. the only thing that is tried and true is the currency board-- and in that case, what would the us use as an anchor currency? you should read a quick online article called "goldbug variations" by paul krugman that talks about floating currencies (in some sense). there is also another article about exchange rates (also by krugman): http://web.mit.edu/krugman/www/coyle.html
3. not sure what you are saying here. "real" gdp as opposed to what? "fake" gdp? "nominal" gdp? the us is a service economy and always has been. there are lots of advantages of producing services over manufactured good. most advanced economies are mostly service producing. (note hk vis a vis mainland china.) in the case of the us, if 75% of the economy is service, then a single percentage point of service growth will be 3x that of a equivalent amount of growth of all non-service sectors. "why was inflation held in check during the clinton years?....." well, i'm not sure that it was. it is thought that this real estate bubble that has just popped is because of too much liquidity that was in the market for a long time (predating the bush presidency by some years). so, it is not clear...........
4. i don't think that is what the point was. this argument is rather complicated, but i will say that there are people who are "supply siders" and "demand siders" as far as economics goes. but it is far from clear that "demand is the driving force of any enterprise." there is say's law (the price of any item must fall to market clearing level), a classic supply side argument. so now what?
Sunset Strip
06-08-08, 21:46
1. Africa did not have control over its natural resources because they could not set up a stable enough government. I think that the resource paradox is a CAUSE of their not being able to get that infrastructure together rather than needing to define a special case under which the resource paradox is true.
Since Africa is a continent, can you name one African country that does not control its natural resources because of its failure to institute a stable government and thus needed Europeans to come in and colonize the land, split up the land into various nations, and then grant independence only after much bloodshed? Thanks.
Maybe I am missing your point but the African nations were not set up the way they are now until Europeans went in to take natural resources. So how can we now say that the inability of native Africans to stabilize governments led to their failure to control resources? The very nations that you are asking the natives to control were set up by Europeans to exploit the resources! This is the old Dependency Theory/ Modernization Theory stuff rehashed and is nothing new.
And using your theory would it not be better to compare the "Africans" to native (Indian) Brazilians. Using your words one could say, The Indians of Brazil do "not have control over [their] natural resources because they [have] not set up a stable enough government. I think that the resource paradox is a CAUSE of their not being able to get that infrastructure together rather than needing to define a special case under which the resource paradox is true."
TJ
I agree with some of the comments written below. Its all a confidence game. If they can get people to believe in the numbers then everything is fine until something breaks. A lot of banks around the world including U.S banks are currently insolvent. Yet almost everyone in the U.S has a bank account in believing their money is safe. Look what happen in to Britain’s eighth-biggest bank Northern Rock. There was a run on the bank. and people couldn't get there money. Currently look at Citicorp.Citicorp looks like its in trouble to me and also Lehman brothers to name a few. Their share price seems to be in a downward momentum.
The Fed talks a good one with all its jawboning on inflation expectations and the economy, which is the Feds job in the last 3 decades, but if you look beneath the surface the facts are telling.
There are many similarities between the 1920's and the 1990's
In the 1920’s, the middle class for the better part of a whole decade was able to enjoy a standard of living previously only available to the very rich. A new service sector of the economy emerged, giving rise to white collar workers as blue collar workers in manufacturing declining in proportion faster than in number. By 1930, only 58% of the work force was engaged in production while between 1920 and 1929, industrial workers declined by 500,000 and farm workers declined by 250,000. Over 30% of the work force was engaged in the service sector, much of it devoted to serving speculative needs of the finance sector. A huge malinvestment in the economy.
1990's
The problem was exacerbated by an unsustainable debt bubble and wild speculation. Easy access to debt replaced even the need for capital, transforming capitalism into a debt-o-mania orgy.
During the 1930's democrats theme was a balance budget, sound currency, no government interference in the private sector, much the opposite of what is being proposed now. But like now voters then were looking for change.
Too much government fiddling in the economy caused the great depression.(ex: The New Deal)
A similar new deal is unfolding now with Barrack Obama and Mc Cains plans now too much government fiddling into the economy when they know nothing of economics or history. This will turn a recession into a depression.
The main difference between 1932 and 2008 is that, unlike in 1932 when Democrats could disclaim policy responsibility for the 1929 crash, they cannot deny in 2008 the policy responsibility of the two-term Clinton administration (1993-2001) for the credit bubble that burst in 2007. Another difference is that the full impact of the final bursting of the serial bubbles would not be fully felt until after the 2008 election. The 1932 election was held in the midst of a severe depression.
Milton Friedman
Milton Friedman in his study of the 1929 crash and the subsequent depression (Monetary History of the United States, 1963) concluded that if only the Fed had provided adequate liquidity, the stock market crash would have recovered to avoid the depression. Friedman concentrated his focus on the curative effect of monetary policy on recessions and did not have much to say about the preventive role of monetary policy on debt bubbles except that inflation is a monetary phenomenon. Friedman did not have much to say about debt and bubbles.
Greenspan Responsibility
Greenspan wrote early April in the Financial Times that he is “puzzled” why so many commentators seek to explain the US housing bubble in terms of Fed actions when many other economies with different central banks and different monetary policies also saw rapid house price gains. The answer is simple. The Fed is the head of the global central bank snake with the fiat dollar as the world’s key reserve currency. The Fed dominates monetary policies of all other central banks which must be reactive either with compensatory interest rate policy or currency revaluations. When the Fed eases, global liquidity increases and asset prices rise everywhere. Other central banks merely have options on which channel to react through; they do not have the option of decoupling from Fed policy or the dollar. Greenspan continues to deny the cause of the credit crises of this decade.
Greenspan sees himself as mopping up the mess he created.
Alex Deuce
06-09-08, 23:53
Same here, came into GIG and it was one of the first times I had ever been asked to goto the x-ray scan belt with my carry-ons before going out to the taxi-counters. The bi-atch basically asked me if this was my bag (as the post menopausal moron watched me put the damn bag thru) after it came out. I said yes, grabbed the bag and never even looked at her as I walked out. I think she was stunned by my lack of explanation or hesitation but I have no fking patience for this BS. Yes, I had two laptops but the kicker is I had registered both of them upon my last departure from GIG. If you carry two (business + personal) it is a good idea to go downstairs near the police station and have them both registered. Or any elec good for that matter that you regularly travel with.
And as far as this nonsense about a strong economy in Brazil defined in part by the decline in the currency rate against the dollar, it’s all BS as usual in Brazil. There is a misconception among economists worldwide that the recent credit boom is helping to generate a stronger GDP (ahhhh, wrong acronym dude).come back and try to convince someone of that farce when Brazil becomes worse off than the US with its own sub prime mortgage woes and debt ridden economy. I can promise you it will take a third of the time to get this country in the same shape economically as the US. Sure consumer confidence is climbing at a neck breaking pace, but how could you expect otherwise when you just handed a bunch of Brazilians a blank check.
And if anyone thinks Brazil is one of the most self-sustaining countries in the world, come back in 4-5 years when the power plants don't have enough access to gas supplies to run their power plants and the blackouts become much more frequent over time. Brazil is oil rich, not gas rich. There is a difference in how this plays out over time. This caca about the Tupi Sol field holding 8 billion in reserves is propaganda. But theres a catch. You gotta get it to surface first and the combined intellect of Petrobras has just enough brainpower to get to work without getting lost. Kinda reminds me of the middle east some time ago, but thats another story.
But as long as I'm here, I'll happily bang as much GDP (yeah guys, insert pun here) into the system as I can stand. After all, why even come to Brazil if you can't contribute to the local economy effectively.
C1
In all candor, i think this is a great conversation and I appreciate all the input from you guys. All in all this is all theory as we seek to explain the trials and tribulations of various economic outcomes.
Wow! would not have expected such smarts from a bunch a *****s! :) Present company included.
Clandestine782
06-10-08, 01:33
Since Africa is a continent, can you name one African country that does not control its natural resources because of its failure to institute a stable government and thus needed Europeans to come in and colonize the land, split up the land into various nations, and then grant independence only after much bloodshed? Thanks.
Maybe I am missing your point but the African nations were not set up the way they are now until Europeans went in to take natural resources. So how can we now say that the inability of native Africans to stabilize governments led to their failure to control resources? The very nations that you are asking the natives to control were set up by Europeans to exploit the resources! This is the old Dependency Theory/ Modernization Theory stuff rehashed and is nothing new.
And using your theory would it not be better to compare the "Africans" to native (Indian) Brazilians. Using your words one could say, The Indians of Brazil do "not have control over [their] natural resources because they [have] not set up a stable enough government. I think that the resource paradox is a CAUSE of their not being able to get that infrastructure together rather than needing to define a special case under which the resource paradox is true."
TJ
A couple of points:
1. The colonizations of Africans took place before oil was as big a thing as it later became. A lot of colonizations happens around the middle of the 1800s, but the model T didn't come out until 1905, and cars became much bigger later on.
2. It is a popular myth that Europe went into Africa to "steal its resources." If you do any quick looking, you can see that there is no consistent relationship between natural resources and national wealth. Note that Switzerland has a GDP per capita that is a multiple of ANY African country-- and this was true before Africa was colonized and after (and Switzerland never had any African colonies). Also note that African countries were poor before they were colonized.
http://www.townhall.com/Columnists/WalterEWilliams/2008/02/27/africa_a_tragic_continent
http://www.jewishworldreview.com/cols/williams010902.asp
3. Lest I belabor the point, let me point out that Israel is a country that has made a whole economy off of brainpower alone. (They have hostile neighbors and still are richer than every surrounding country.) And lest I KEEP ON belaboring it, need I mention that European countries are RICHER than they were before African independence? Or that most of the richest countries already trade with each other (or with China)?
4. This is a response to your first point. (Walter Williams already made the point in the two articles that I copied, and that I hope you read carefully). First: The resources that could have been sold were there before the Europeans came and yet the Africans didn't have governments in place that could resist colonizers. Note that when it was time to buy slaves, the Europeans didn't go into the Arab world to find slaves because the fact that there were governments there made the cost prohibitively high. This point is dealt with in Thomas Sowell's book "Basic Economics" in the chapter on "Free and Unfree Labor" (it may have also been dealt with in "Applied Economics"). Williams is right: The Africans were better off under colonization. Life expectancy has probably fallen in every single case there since the Crown (or whoever) left. I wonder if SA had 1/4 of the population infected with HIV at any point when the Boers controlled it.
Sorry, but your old hat about "resources being stolen from Africa" just doesn't hold water-- either logically or empirically.
A couple of points:
1. The colonizations of Africans took place before oil was as big a thing as it later became. A lot of colonizations happens around the middle of the 1800s, but the model T didn't come out until 1905, and cars became much bigger later on.
2. It is a popular myth that Europe went into Africa to "steal its resources." If you do any quick looking, you can see that there is no consistent relationship between natural resources and national wealth. Note that Switzerland has a GDP per capita that is a multiple of ANY African country-- and this was true before Africa was colonized and after (and Switzerland never had any African colonies). Also note that African countries were poor before they were colonized.
http://www.townhall.com/Columnists/WalterEWilliams/2008/02/27/africa_a_tragic_continent
http://www.jewishworldreview.com/cols/williams010902.asp
3. Lest I belabor the point, let me point out that Israel is a country that has made a whole economy off of brainpower alone. (They have hostile neighbors and still are richer than every surrounding country.) And lest I KEEP ON belaboring it, need I mention that European countries are RICHER than they were before African independence? Or that most of the richest countries already trade with each other (or with China)?
4. This is a response to your first point. (Walter Williams already made the point in the two articles that I copied, and that I hope you read carefully). First: The resources that could have been sold were there before the Europeans came and yet the Africans didn't have governments in place that could resist colonizers. Note that when it was time to buy slaves, the Europeans didn't go into the Arab world to find slaves because the fact that there were governments there made the cost prohibitively high. This point is dealt with in Thomas Sowell's book "Basic Economics" in the chapter on "Free and Unfree Labor" (it may have also been dealt with in "Applied Economics"). Williams is right: The Africans were better off under colonization. Life expectancy has probably fallen in every single case there since the Crown (or whoever) left. I wonder if SA had 1/4 of the population infected with HIV at any point when the Boers controlled it.
Sorry, but your old hat about "resources being stolen from Africa" just doesn't hold water-- either logically or empirically.
Labor is a resource just like oil or rubber or gold. When Europeans and Americans went to Africa to obtain slaves, they were indeed stealing resources from Africa!
Look at a map of Africa. Do you wonder why there are so many straight borders? It is because the European powers held a conference in 1884 in Berlin and literally divided up Africa amongst themselves using a ruler to make the borders!
Do a little search of the treaty than ended WWI. You will find that the winners, England and France demanded, and received African colonies from the losers (Germany). So Cameroon, then a German colony, was given to France and became a French colony. And Tanganyika, also then a German colony, was given to England and became a British colony with the new name of Tanzania.
The whole reason why African colonies were traded among the European contries like sports players in the NBA or NHL among the team owners, is because of the wealth that could be exploited from them.
The case of Belgium, King Leopold, and the Congo destroys your claim that there is no relationship between the resources stolen from Africa and European wealth. Belgium and King Leopold became wealthy off the rubber that was harvested in the Congo. According to some authors who wrote about the period, the Kurtz character in the film "Apocalypse Now", which is loosely based on a Joseph Conrad novel, is the composite of real, actual Belgium military officers who committed atrocities against Africans while stationed in the Congo.
It is your old racist hat that does not hold anything except nonsense! As Alex noted, there are many bright guys who read this thread. We are ready to challenge ALL of your crap anytime you sling it!
Clandestine782
06-10-08, 19:06
Labor is a resource just like oil or rubber or gold. When Europeans and Americans went to Africa to obtain slaves, they were indeed stealing resources from Africa!
Look at a map of Africa. Do you wonder why there are so many straight borders? It is because the European powers held a conference in 1884 in Berlin and literally divided up Africa amongst themselves using a ruler to make the borders!
Do a little search of the treaty than ended WWI. You will find that the winners, England and France demanded, and received African colonies from the losers (Germany). So Cameroon, then a German colony, was given to France and became a French colony. And Tanganyika, also then a German colony, was given to England and became a British colony with the new name of Tanzania.
The whole reason why African colonies were traded among the European contries like sports players in the NBA or NHL among the team owners, is because of the wealth that could be exploited from them.
The case of Belgium, King Leopold, and the Congo destroys your claim that there is no relationship between the resources stolen from Africa and European wealth. Belgium and King Leopold became wealthy off the rubber that was harvested in the Congo. According to some authors who wrote about the period, the Kurtz character in the film "Apocalypse Now", which is loosely based on a Joseph Conrad novel, is the composite of real, actual Belgium military officers who committed atrocities against Africans while stationed in the Congo.
It is your old racist hat that does not hold anything except nonsense! As Alex noted, there are many bright guys who read this thread. We are ready to challenge ALL of your crap anytime you sling it!
1. How do you explain the fact that these economic assertions were made by a black PhD economist? Is he racist when he tells on black people?
2. Williams addressed the issue of borders in the article. If the borders were such a problem, then why weren't they changed after independence?
3. The logical error that you are committing is very much in the vein of those in Karl Marx's "Das Kapital," and more to the point-- part of Labor Theory of Value: There is no such thing as wealth that exists in a vacuum. So, you could say that a woman who has a snatch has something that is worth thousands of dollars. But she can't go to the bank and take out a loan against it because it is income not realized. Much in the same way that if you have labor in some undeveloped economy (i.e., labor that has nowhere to go), then it is not worth something unless it is put to use. What Africa has (and has) is a huge mass of illiterate people that some slaveowners found a way to make use of. It's hard to find such information, but I would be willing to be money that the life expectancy of black Africans was higher after enslavement than before. And I know for a fact that the life expectancy of black Brazilians or black Americans is higher than blacks in SA or Nigeria or Botswana or Zimbabwe (etc....)
4. So King Leopold got rich. Fine. That is because he had someplace to SELL the rubber. And, I hate to break it to you, but rubber is not enough to make a whole economy. One man getting rich does not correspond to a whole country being able to get rich off of plunder. (Fallacy of composition.) I think that I was reading somewhere (likely in the Williams article or something like it) that the amount of trade between the US and Belgium exceeds that of between the US and the whole African continent. And if that is not the case, then I am pretty sure that the trade between Canada and the US (which is something like the largest bilateral trade relationship in the world) exceeds that between the US and the whole of Africa-- even though there are probably in excess of 700 million black people there.
5. You still haven't answered the question of WHY the Europeans were able to carve up Africa using a minimum amount of effort and with fractions of the population of the African countries. If there was so much wealth there to be had, the could any of it have been turned into a military to keep out foreigners? Or perhaps there was no wealth there to begin with. (The presence of labor and capital does not automatically equal wealth.)
As far as your statement that labor is a resource like gold or .......(whatever), I'd recommend that you read a short article by Paul Krugman "Goldbug Variations." It will answer your questions. And that you REread the Williams articles-- if you ever read them in the first place and see what he has to say. He has Ph.D. in Economics and is a black man.
Alex Deuce
06-10-08, 22:37
If anyone can say with a strait face that AFRICA as a continent was not rapped and pillaged until the late 80's you are either living in a bubble in someone's basement or are toooooo hooked on your argument.
AFRICA is still to day being pillaged, you think the Iraq war was all about Hussein your crazy. The NEOCONS see the limited supply of oil being divvied up to Asia and Pakistan and wanted to ensure our supply instead of seeking alternatives. Look at the Sudan. Sunni Muslims are killing other tribes of Sunni muslims to move them off their land so the chinese companies can move in and drill for the oil. They blame it on Arab against black, but Pssst most Arabs are black and so are most Sudanese very interracial.
Clandestine782
06-10-08, 23:51
If anyone can say with a strait face that AFRICA as a continent was not rapped and pillaged until the late 80's you are either living in a bubble in someone's basement or are toooooo hooked on your argument. Ok, let's explore this argument a bit further. Israel is someplace that just came into existence in about 1948. It didn't take them too very long before they were at a Western standard of living. But if you look at the distance that has elapsed between the time of independence of the last African country (Zimbabwe, 1983), that gives them about 25 years. They haven't even come *close* to covering the same ground that Israel did in the same amount of time. I could tell much of the same story for Singapore. The last British left in 1971, and they went from third world to first world status in the space of 1 generation.
What's more: Your argument depends on the idea that wealth was something that was sitting in the ground in Africa and that since it was taken all the (potential) wealth was taken there as well. This is belied by the evidence. If you look at places like Hong Kong and Bermuda (or Barbados), there is nothing there. No oil, no anything. And yet they are still much better off than the Africans. This is because they created things that people were willing to pay for and just traded for what they didn't have there. (The aforementioned places are all financial centers-- and this is something that is built on pure brainpower.) There are hundreds of billions of dollars (euros, etc) sitting in those countries, and they can make a living off of just the service charges for holding onto that currency. So, if Africa had the brainpower to set up a similar situation, it stands to reason that they could generate the same amount of wealth.
If you go to a place like Hong Kong, it really is beyond compare. *Every single square inch* of that city is productively employed in some way or another.
AFRICA is still to day being pillaged, you think the Iraq war was all about Hussein your crazy. The NEOCONS see the limited supply of oil being divvied up to Asia and Pakistan and wanted to ensure our supply instead of seeking alternatives.. This is interesting. I could make the case that left wing nutballs in the US have made it such that we can't drill the oil that is here (which would be enough to satisfy demand for a good long while) for fear of disturbing some birds or polar bears. The supply of oil is not being "divvied up" in some passive way. People are paying for it, and the fact that they are willing to pay more at some times than other drives up the price.
Look at the Sudan. Sunni Muslims are killing other tribes of Sunni muslims to move them off their land so the chinese companies can move in and drill for the oil. They blame it on Arab against black, but Pssst most Arabs are black and so are most Sudanese very interracial.I didn't know that most Arabs were black. Can you substantiate that? China is just making the best out of a bad situation. (They don't have much respect for the intelligence of black people, and if they took their calculations based on African under achievement, I couldn't blame them.) And since African governments are so itinerant, China could go there and drill the land (and work with the incumbent government) and still come out way ahead. So now what?
It seems that Clandestine782 is hell bent on resurrecting planations and colonies with his veiled accusations of African inferiority. I guess he is one of those working-class Whites who is REALLY pissed that Barack Obama, the son of an African man, is the Democratic nominee for president and is very likely to become the next president of the USA.
His rants on Africa and its problems are WAY off topic for a thread that started with the impact of inflation and unemployment on mongering by Americans in Brazil. I hope the moderator deletes this string of recent posts.
Clandestine782
06-13-08, 20:58
Nope. I'm a black man who is disgusted with the performance of black people just about EVERYWHERE.
I'm thinking about converting to Judaism to change my racial identity and be around higher IQ people.
You can technically call yourself a Jew if you pass the examination of a Beit Din and get a certificate of conversion.
What the hell does all this have to do with the Real being too damn strong for most tourists?
Your arguments about Africa has not business taking up space on this board, take it somewhere else.
Squirrel88
06-13-08, 23:56
What the hell does all this have to do with the Real being too damn strong for most tourists?
Your arguments about Africa has not business taking up space on this board, take it somewhere else.Didn't you know that Africa was connected to Brazil?
I second that
what does this have to do with the Real and the dollar?
Clandestine782
06-15-08, 03:34
What the hell does all this have to do with the Real being too damn strong for most tourists?
Your arguments about Africa has not business taking up space on this board, take it somewhere else.RTFF and find out that I was not the one who started this discussion. I just responded to someone else's comments and it spiraled from there.
Sunset Strip
06-15-08, 19:30
Just add Clandestine to your ignore list. I went through and checked this person's past posts and saw him being fairly antagonistic on various threads. And though I did not check all of his post, I did not really see any evidence that Clandestine really spends time in Brazil.
So Clandestine really has little to offer any of us as far as advice on Brazil goes. Clandestine should stick to the China thread!
The Brazil board is very popular any many trollers jump in from time-to-time to antagonize those of us fortunate enough to spend time in a nation such as Brazil.
back to topic:
By the way, does anybody think it is worthwhile to buy Reals prior to arriving in Rio? Or are the rates in the US not worth it?
TJ
By the way, does anybody think it is worthwhile to buy Reals prior to arriving in Rio? Or are the rates in the US not worth it?
TJI think it would be worthwhile but I have not found anywhere to do that except for an American Express office that charged a 10% commission.
I like holding Reais. That way if the dollar drops I am insulated. If the dollar climbs then Rio just got cheaper and I buy more Reais.
Where can you buy them in the US without paying an obscene commission?
I think it would be worthwhile but I have not found anywhere to do that except for an American Express office that charged a 10% commission.
I like holding Reais. That way if the dollar drops I am insulated. If the dollar climbs then Rio just got cheaper and I buy more Reais.
Where can you buy them in the US without paying an obscene commission?I go to FCE here in Los Angeles. Ask for Michelle.
(213) 624-3693
Sunset Strip
06-16-08, 22:16
I think it would be worthwhile but I have not found anywhere to do that except for an American Express office that charged a 10% commission.
I like holding Reais. That way if the dollar drops I am insulated. If the dollar climbs then Rio just got cheaper and I buy more Reais.
Thanks. That makes sense.
Some investors say the real has come too far too fast. Marcelo Carvalho, chief economist in Brazil for Morgan Stanley, predicts a 4.5 percent drop in the currency this year amid a surge in imports. In late May, Brazil's central bank forecast a current account shortfall of $1.5 billion for that month, down from a surplus of $3.31 billion in April.
Some investors say the real has come too far too fast. Marcelo Carvalho, chief economist in Brazil for Morgan Stanley, predicts a 4.5 percent drop in the currency this year amid a surge in imports. In late May, Brazil's central bank forecast a current account shortfall of $1.5 billion for that month, down from a surplus of $3.31 billion in April.
That may be the case, but the Dollar keeps tanking:
6/25/08
1.00 USD = 1.59050 BRL
1 EUR = 2.49351 BRL
Carlos Primeros
06-27-08, 16:40
I am at present time in Salvador, got from ONEX 165 BR for 100 USD today.
Carlos Primeros
CBGBConnisur
06-27-08, 17:34
Real is going up because of world commodity prices, if I am not mistaken, China is one of Brazil's biggest clients. Other countries that export natural resources like Canada and Australia are also seeing their currencies climb.
Alex Deuce
06-27-08, 20:23
Some investors say the real has come too far too fast. Marcelo Carvalho, chief economist in Brazil for Morgan Stanley, predicts a 4.5 percent drop in the currency this year amid a surge in imports. In late May, Brazil's central bank forecast a current account shortfall of $1.5 billion for that month, down from a surplus of $3.31 billion in April.
The only issue Brazil has is inflation due to an overheated economy and oil prices. And as long as China manipulates its currency to the US dollar and they and Europe purchase raw goods at current pace the growth in GDP will continue.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601086&sid=axAFaMKOHL2s&refer=latin_america
Its like an American telling a fine ass Groata that was selling pussy for 300 reals that you cant afford to buy reals but would offer her 250 for her services. She might say yes, but the problem is that the European guy can pay the 300. Basically Demand drives the market and Brazil has the resources that the world wants and moreover needs to survive.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601086&sid=aygBLH9wG80U&refer=latin_america
My Prediction; The Real will be 1.45 to 1 US by the US Election in November.
My Prediction; The Real will be 1.45 to 1 US by the US Election in Novem.berDamn Deuce,
Man, I Hope & Pray your prediction will be FALSE!
High inflation generally leads to a weaker exchange rate. The current quoted rate by the Brazilian government is a joke, something like 5% now. In reality it is 10%+. When you add in an ever widening current account deficit and terrible rates of productivity from Brazilian workers then the real looks to be on borrowed time over the long term. Short term the currency could do anything, even strengthen, long term you would think it will devalue against most major currencies.
Basically nothing changes in South America because they do nothing to improve productivity (corruption being perhaps the biggest issue), hence they get these boom/bust cycles. Brazil is in a boom right now, it will bust in a couple of years when the world economy slows down further. When your economy is totally inefficient and corrupt there is no place to hide when things turn for the worse. The world economy is slowing dramatically. 2+2 always equals 4.
Every body hates the US right now for investment dollars, they love Brazil, when you have every man and his dog telling you how great the Brazilian economy is, it is the time to slowly start to shift available investment dollars into the US. People that follow the heard late in the investment cycle get slaughtered.
The only issue Brazil has is inflation due to an overheated economy and oil prices. And as long as China manipulates its currency to the US dollar and they and Europe purchase raw goods at current pace the growth in GDP will continue.
Yes. Brazil is having an inflation problem. I strongly disagree that it is due in any way, shape, or form to the rise in oil prices because Btrazil is self-sufficient in energy. It does NOT import oil!!! In addition, most vehicles now use Brazil's cheap ethanol made from sugar cane!
I feel their inflation problem has a demand-pull cause. The booming economy has raised many incomes and increased the demand for many consumer goods. Unfortunately, the supply of those goods has not risen to satisfy demand. The result is higher prices; inflation.
Let's see what happens in early 2009. There is no way China can sustain its growth and commodity demand when oil is so expensive. I predict that after the Olympics, Chinese demand for oil, iron, etc. will start to fall. And if oil stays high through the fall, then there will be a worldwide recession in the winter.
Alex Deuce
06-28-08, 13:42
Is there any real appreciable difference between the Brazilian corruption and US corruption, Waste and Pork Barrel spending?" You wanna talk about Halliburtion? You wanna talk about Exxon et al owing the US 37 billion in unpaid oil lease revenue and our president wanting to extend more leases? You wanna talk about Ennron fleecing California for billion? You wanna talk about bear sterns? I think not. Gimme a break. Security concerning the stability of investments and direction of funds to intended programs and capital projects have drastically improved. Why do you think Morgan and all these banks have been flocking to brazil. If you have not been paying attention to all the Arrests, Removals from office and gun battles. I think you would have noticed that the clean up started 3 years ago my friend. All to make way for high level corruption perpetrated by conglomerates.
You are correct that the late comers always get slaughtered in the market. Timing is everything. Think of all the late house flippers that are stuck with houses and assets that they cant sell. The current account deficit is not an issue. Its validates my previous statements;
"Brazil posted the widest annual current account deficit in almost six years as faster economic growth spurred imports and the remittance of profits abroad. Brazil's current account deficit, which offers us the broadest measure of trade in goods and services, increased to $14.7 billion in the 12 months through April, up from $9.54 billion in March, accoding to the latest data from the central bank. This if the widest gap since August 2002. The fastest economic growth in more than three years and a cheap dollar boosted demand for imports, which jumped almost 45 percent in the first four months of this year. Companies benefiting from the expansion are also sending more of their profits abroad to meet the financial needs of their head offices amid an international credit crunch.
It is important to realise that Brazil has been running a current account surplus in recent years, although the IMF are currently forecasting a deficit of 0.7% GDP for 2008. "
"When posting Quotes post in entire context"
Im a say this again and leave it alone;"GO BACK TO BASIC MACRO ECONOMICS WHEN LOOKING AT THE WORLD MARKETS" The so called new derivatives for investments developed in the late 90's are killing common sense. I sit with these so called Investment GURUS that spout all this BS about Inverse relationships twixt this and that. I always stop them and ask them two things and wont let them vary. #1. What is the instruments investment portfolio? #2. What is my take away? Generally, I get silence or "What do you mean?" I then tell them to get me a Grown UP.
(This is me venting on this. These young consultants don't know shit. They all just fucking spit the company line. Not even looked at nor learned the products thoroughly. Im back!)
Im not saying that Brazil is the greatest economy in the free world. Im saying that it is an emerging economy. This is not a bust or boom cycle. Its a growth cycle that is being exasperated by a strong Real. It was going to happen even if the Real stayed at 1-2 US (But not at this Incline.) Americans have this sense that our economy is the best thing shaking. But we need to realize that this is a big planet. The oil cost that I refer to are in the shipping of goods and the need for petroleum products not just for gasoline but in manufacturing and other uses of a barrel of OIl. Remember, gas is one of many derivatives of a barrel of oil.
http://www.opec.org/library/FAQs/CrudeOil/q4.htm
And no, The dollar is going to continue to fall as long as we continue to deficit spend and have entirely to low rate. 1-1.45 by election!
Im a say this again and leave it alone;"GO BACK TO BASIC MACRO ECONOMICS WHEN LOOKING AT THE WORLD MARKETS" The so called new derivatives for investments developed in the late 90's are killing common sense. I sit with these so called Investment GURUS that spout all this BS about Inverse relationships twixt this and that. I always stop them and ask them two things and wont let them vary. #1. What is the instruments investment portfolio? #2. What is my take away? Generally, I get silence or "What do you mean?" I then tell them to get me a Grown UP.
(This is me venting on this. These young consultants don't know shit. They all just fucking spit the company line. Not even looked at nor learned the products thoroughly. Im back!)
For those who may not be well versed in financial affairs, I would try, but would miserably fail, to adquately convince you just how on the money Alex' statements are. In retail banking and finance, there are a handful of well trained knowledgeable managers, and then a bunch of know-littles and SLEWS of know-nothings. The main finance designation, CFA, which requires candidates to pass a set of exams called Series 6 and 7, does NOT require a bachelor degree first. Anyone can just teach him/herself the topics, write the exams, and if they pass they are finance professionals. Retail finance institutions take anyone with a degree in anything, it could be a degree in education technology, train them for 3 months, and then stick them in a bank to sell annuities to the unsuspecting public.
The finance professionals who really know stuff work in investment banking and portfolio management.
Alex I agree with most of the things you are saying about what is happening now, however don’t agree that you can assume this to continue into the future. Brazil has had a huge boom over the last 5 years. Booms don’t last forever and Brazil has done little, if anything to reform its economy in this period. Hence it is not positioned well when the world economy slows in 08 and 09.
I live in Brazil now and do some business here and it is the most frustrating place to do even the simplest thing. It seems every thing is setup so everything must pass through the most people, so everybody can take their little cut. In the end it just stifles business.
The Real, long term, cannot be at current levels. Sure short term it can do anything, yeah sure it can continue to appreciate, but long term economics will win out and the Brazilian economy cannot sustain the current level.
The current theme here is the strong real is just killing businesses that need to compete on an international basis. A popular term is that the strong real is "de industrializing the south", its just killing what is left of industry in Brazil. Anything that is not exporting commodities is just being killed by the strong real. Tourists are endangered species in Rio right now!
Your average Brazilian company cannot compete with the highly efficient international producers, that is even with an effective import duty of 80% on all goods. Can you imagine how useless ones needs to be to not be able to compete when you have an 80% cost advantage?
The Brazilian economy is so inefficient that when an economic shock occurs, and there is one coming in the world economy very soon, that it gets hit HARD. There is nothing here to absorb the shocks. That is why Brazil never sustains its growth, it never reforms its economy and productivity never improves.
Every economy has a level of corruption, the US realistically has a very low rate, the Brazilian economy is one of the most corrupt outside of Africa. You really need to live and do business here to see it to believe it. There is no real fixed legal system in Brazil, if you want something done, some one needs to be paid off. It doesn’t matter if you are in the right and have a contract in your hand, if someone wants to stiff you, they can and usually will try to. Hence money cannot be invested with any real confidence, and it isn’t.
On the other hand, the US economy is highly efficient and hence can withstand quite severe economic shocks. Yes it is getting killed right now, and everything is gloom and doom, but it will work through its problems. It’s large budget and current account deficits will come down, the capital markets will force that upon the US. However it will survive.
I have 2 degrees, one of which is in economics, the other in law. I worked most of my career in Invesment banking, I worked in various countries, mainly in Asia and Europe. I guess I was relatively successful as I am semi retired at the age of 40, and have been semi retired for a few years. One of the things I have learned in the investment world. 2+2 always equals 4. Always remember this when investing or trying to predict the future!
To be a successful investor one needs to look at what history has done and plan how it will repeat in the future. Never listen to what the noise out there is. As you rightly pointed out, most of the herd, the financial community that is not in the top 10% of the field, are clueless. They are only there because they have ridden on some ones else success. This includes TV commentators on Bloomberg, most of the dipshits on Wall Street etc. If you did the exact opposite of what these people said you would be better off for it. That whole culture is geared to what happens now and maybe out to 6 months, there is little strategic thinking involved. Which brings me to my last point. Now is not the time to invest in emerging markets, the easy money has already been made there over the last 5 years. Likewise I wouldn’t be betting on the US dollar to weaken further, that would be dangerous, the money has already been made there as well. There may eb a little more downside on the dollar, but certainly not a lot more. When times are the worst, the absolute pitts, and the news wants to make you slit your own throat and everybody is jumping out of buildings on Wall Street and being splattered on the pavement below, that is a good time to think a bottom of the economic cycle has arrived or is near.
I am not saying we are at the bottom of the US mess just yet, there is some more pain to be felt yet, there will probably be a couple of shockers to come in regards to another bank or other financial institution to fail. However the bottom will come soon. Those that are ready for it will prosper. The ones that don’t see it coming will be like Deers stuck in the headlights of an oncoming truck.
History as my guide says the world economy will follow this cycle. The US was first into this mess, it will continue to get belted this year, but there is light at the end of the tunnel. The bottom is soonish. A lot of the problems are being worked out. A different president would help a lot. Getting the hell out of Iraq would help even more (shave $150b a year from the budget deficit). It will be first out of the recession.
Europe will follow into recession next year, why? Do you think the Europeans will let inflation continue the way it is? No way!. They will tighten monetary policy so much it will sap demand and break the commodity price boom’s /bubble’s back. Add this to lower worldwide demand and there goes the emerging markets. Adding to this, you think it is easy to compete against the US with the Euro at 1.6? Don’t believe it? look at Airbus as an example!. Europe will be later into the recession than the US and will be later out. 10 years out we will probably back at dollar/Euro 1:1.
After Europe, China and the emerging markets will be hit. They will be hit last in the cycle and due to lack of real planning could be the hardest hit. History would suggest that Brazil will not come out the other side in great shape. It is already running a current account deficit in good times? How is it going to cope when commodity prices get hit?
China will save the day? No way, look at when Japan was apparently kicking everybody's ass in the late 80's. Since then their stockmarket, which was at 40,000 is now at 13,000. Thats 20 years later. Economic growth over the last 10 years has been close to zero. Where will China be in 5 years? Planned economies (which is what Japan was trying to do) generally do not compete favorably with efficient market economies, they do well for a few years, then fall in a heap. Brazil's economy is not planned well and certainly not an efficient market economy. History would suggest it will not whether a major world financial shock.
Very good analysis, BB. What do you think will be the shock that triggers everything?
I think the shock is happening right now: sky high oil prices! Many Asian countries subsidize gasoline to their citizens, such as China and India. These high prices are making those subsidies HUGELY expensive. They can't sustain them. Already China has lowered the subsidy level a bit. Chavez of Venezuela has said he will keep the gas subsidies to his citizens, but he is a maniac.
When the gas subsidies decrease, the populace will be faced with higher and higher gas prices, prices closer to their true value. That will bring on slower growth in China and India, and perhaps recessions in other countries. Then the things you described will start to occur.
Something that I fear high oil prices will trigger is political violence. As the price rises, the oil in the ground gets more and more valuable to whomever controls it. Sudan fought a civil war over oil in the 90's when the price of oil was low. Imagine what that government is thinking now! Nigeria is having all kinds of unrest in its oil producing region. I am sure that radical groups like those on certain watch lists are considering the advantages of controlling or disrupting oil production or distribution. (I am not mentioning the names of any such groups because powers that be have spiders that troll all over the Internet looking for just those key words.)
I also don't put it past Israel to attack Iran.
Any one of these factors could be a sufficient adverse shock; we may get all three.
About Brazil: as a lawyer, how do you think business in Brazil can be streamlined to encourage entrepreneurship? Do you think it is mostly about laws of mostly about cultural values that accept and tolerate corruption?
Greetings everyone
I don't know if this is the right place to post this but since it has something to do with the economics I will post it here and I hope JACKSON will let it through.
BUBBA ALEX and others .Thank you so much for taking the time to explain all these things to mongers like me who don't know nothing about economics and also for explaining it in such a nice way that even a child would understand it.
I agree with you that countries like BRAsil or Eastern Europe (RUSsia included)
will encounter again some serious economic problems in the future but even if the currency exchange rate turns again tomorow in the favor of the dollar I don't think the P4P world in these countries will ever be the same like it was in the 90s or even until 2005.
Like Alex said couple of weeks ago these countries are not going to be the next economic super powers but they are changing and these changes are going to have a negative effect on the P4P.Maybe in 3 years from now the exchange rate will be 1 dollar to 4 Reals but still don't expect that you are going to find the same quality and GFE like 5 or 10 years ago.
If you guys like a little bit of P4P history the best example will be France which was Europe's main playground (P4P,GFE and NON PRO) in the 60's and 70's and I bet that mongers who were having fun at that time thought the fun is gonna stay for long time.Suddenly in the begining of the 80s things changed FOREVER and with all these the dollar was still strong for another 15 years.I think we are entering a phase where the currency exchange rate won't matter as much as it did so far.
So my question is if in 3 years the exchange rate will be 1usd=3 ,4 or even 5 Reals do you thing that Rio is still going to be the same?
I don't think so but that is just MHO.
Like I said maybe it was not the right thread to post this but in a way i feel it is.If you guys want to take the time to answer me I would like to hear your opinions on this.
Happy hunting
Greetings everyone
I don't know if this is the right place to post this but since it has something to do with the economics I will post it here and I hope JACKSON will let it through.
BUBBA ALEX and others .Thank you so much for taking the time to explain all these things to mongers like me who don't know nothing about economics and also for explaining it in such a nice way that even a child would understand it.
I agree with you that countries like BRAsil or Eastern Europe (RUSsia included)
will encounter again some serious economic problems in the future but even if the currency exchange rate turns again tomorow in the favor of the dollar I don't think the P4P world in these countries will ever be the same like it was in the 90s or even until 2005.
Like Alex said couple of weeks ago these countries are not going to be the next economic super powers but they are changing and these changes are going to have a negative effect on the P4P.Maybe in 3 years from now the exchange rate will be 1 dollar to 4 Reals but still don't expect that you are going to find the same quality and GFE like 5 or 10 years ago.
If you guys like a little bit of P4P history the best example will be France which was Europe's main playground (P4P,GFE and NON PRO) in the 60's and 70's and I bet that mongers who were having fun at that time thought the fun is gonna stay for long time.Suddenly in the begining of the 80s things changed FOREVER and with all these the dollar was still strong for another 15 years.I think we are entering a phase where the currency exchange rate won't matter as much as it did so far.
So my question is if in 3 years the exchange rate will be 1usd=3 ,4 or even 5 Reals do you thing that Rio is still going to be the same?
I don't think so but that is just MHO.
Like I said maybe it was not the right thread to post this but in a way i feel it is.If you guys want to take the time to answer me I would like to hear your opinions on this.
Happy hunting
I think the current recession in the US will be worldwide next year. This will have to break the back of commodity prices and put pressure on an economy that relies on them. In general it is not going to be pretty. Hence, Brazil's economy will be under pressure.
The first thing that would need to be done to fight corruption is to reform the legal system. The local population has zero confidence in the courts nor the police that are supposed to enforce the laws. The chance of this happening any time soon in Brazil? About the same chance of Israel NOT bombing Iran. IE zero! Until Brazil has a viable legal system it will continue as a 3rd world country.
Breast Is Best
06-29-08, 10:56
I think the current recession in the US will be worldwide next year. This will have to break the back of commodity prices and put pressure on an economy that relies on them. In general it is not going to be pretty. Hence, Brazil's economy will be under pressure.
The first thing that would need to be done to fight corruption is to reform the legal system. The local population has zero confidence in the courts nor the police that are supposed to enforce the laws. The chance of this happening any time soon in Brazil? About the same chance of Israel NOT bombing Iran. IE zero! Until Brazil has a viable legal system it will continue as a 3rd world country.I never thought subscribing to ISG would allow me to cancel my Economist subscription but there you go.
I agree 100% with you Bubba, like you my background is ibanking and i'm about the same age as you. The key macro economic problem for Brazil is the substantive absence of the rule of law. Beyond the veneer it just ain't there. The second problem is the handmaiden of this primary malaise and that is chronic cronyism which riddles the financial system and every other walk of life.
When (as happened 2 years ago) you have a city of 17 million people like Sao Paulo brought to its knees though drug dealing gangsters commanding street britzkriegs from within the prison system you know something is still 'rotten in the state of Denmark. '.
I'm active in business/investing in Brazil just now (and in all the BRIC states) and the devil is very much in the detail but I have to say its easier than any of the other BRICs.
Stop press. I bought BR$ at 2. 65 to £1 while in transit form Asia at Heathrow last night. Brazilian exports have got to be hurting right now.
I just arrived in SP and head to Rio later this week. If there's anyone out there that wants to hook up. In the words of Aerosmith. 'I'm Back In The Saddle Again. '.
Man I admire you for investing in the BRIC's, you must have balls the size of an elephant and the patience of a saint. Good luck to you.
Breast Is Best
06-30-08, 14:01
Man I admire you for investing in the BRIC's, you must have balls the size of an elephant and the patience of a saint. Good luck to you.Yeh. It makes for an interesting life BB. But I have hedgies looking for supernormal returns and access to an asset class they can't get at from Greenwich CT. So you know. Its a dirty job travelling around the world with a pocket full of change to prime mongering destinations. But I'm taking one for the team.
Genghis Khan
06-30-08, 21:34
I never thought subscribing to ISG would allow me to cancel my Economist subscription but there you go.
I agree 100% with you Bubba, like you my background is ibanking and i'm about the same age as you. The key macro economic problem for Brazil is the substantive absence of the rule of law. Beyond the veneer it just ain't there. The second problem is the handmaiden of this primary malaise and that is chronic cronyism which riddles the financial system and every other walk of life.
When (as happened 2 years ago) you have a city of 17 million people like Sao Paulo brought to its knees though drug dealing gangsters commanding street britzkriegs from within the prison system you know something is still 'rotten in the state of Denmark. '.
I'm active in business/investing in Brazil just now (and in all the BRIC states) and the devil is very much in the detail but I have to say its easier than any of the other BRICs.
Stop press. I bought BR$ at 2. 65 to £1 while in transit form Asia at Heathrow last night. Brazilian exports have got to be hurting right now.
I just arrived in SP and head to Rio later this week. If there's anyone out there that wants to hook up. In the words of Aerosmith. 'I'm Back In The Saddle Again. '.
I am in SP at the moment.
GK
I bought BR$ at 2. 65 to £1 while in transit form Asia at Heathrow last night.
Pleased you didn't buy too many. Reis have always been more expensive outside the country than in any time I've tried (especially Heathrow).
Rock Harders
07-01-08, 02:16
Mongers-
Reais are actually about 8% cheaper than market value when purchased from Banco de La Nacion Argentina at Ezeiza International Airport in Buenos Aires. This only works when exchanging Argentine pesos for Reais; for some reasons, both the buy and sell are about 8% less than true market value. If you do not have any pesos, exchange dollars, euros, or pounds sterling to pesos first (they all trade at exact market value, with a very tight buy/sell spread) then exchange the AR pesos to reais and reap the benefit. My guess that this same scheme will work at Banco de la Nacion branches all over Buenos Aires and possibly at other exchange houses as well.
UPDATE: I just checked up on this, and at the downtown XE houses you can get R$167 for $100 USD, first converted into AR pesos. So that ends up being better than the 1.6/1 official rate.
Suerte,
Rock Harders
Mongers-
Reais are actually about 8% cheaper than market value when purchased from Banco de La Nacion Argentina at Ezeiza International Airport in Buenos Aires. This only works when exchanging Argentine pesos for Reais; for some reasons, both the buy and sell are about 8% less than true market value. If you do not have any pesos, exchange dollars, euros, or pounds sterling to pesos first (they all trade at exact market value, with a very tight buy/sell spread) then exchange the AR pesos to reais and reap the benefit. My guess that this same scheme will work at Banco de la Nacion branches all over Buenos Aires and possibly at other exchange houses as well.
UPDATE: I just checked up on this, and at the downtown XE houses you can get R$167 for $100 USD, first converted into AR pesos. So that ends up being better than the 1.6/1 official rate.
Suerte,
Rock Harders
Thanks for the informative suggestion.
CBGBConnisur
07-01-08, 17:31
With the liklihood of Barack Obama being elected US president in Nov....what affect will that have on the US$ vis-a-vis R$???Raising taxes and balancing the US budget?? Let me see... it might allow the Dollar to recover a bit...or stop the continued to drop in value of the greenback too. Usually the Dollar appreciates when there is Democrat in the White House.
With the liklihood of Barack Obama being elected US president in Nov....what affect will that have on the US$ vis-a-vis R$???This will be the mother of all Bradley effects.
Greetings everyone
I don't know if this is the right place to post this but since it has something to do with the economics I will post it here and I hope JACKSON will let it through.
BUBBA ALEX and others .Thank you so much for taking the time to explain all these things to mongers like me who don't know nothing about economics and also for explaining it in such a nice way that even a child would understand it.
I agree with you that countries like BRAsil or Eastern Europe (RUSsia included)
will encounter again some serious economic problems in the future but even if the currency exchange rate turns again tomorow in the favor of the dollar I don't think the P4P world in these countries will ever be the same like it was in the 90s or even until 2005.
Like Alex said couple of weeks ago these countries are not going to be the next economic super powers but they are changing and these changes are going to have a negative effect on the P4P.Maybe in 3 years from now the exchange rate will be 1 dollar to 4 Reals but still don't expect that you are going to find the same quality and GFE like 5 or 10 years ago.
If you guys like a little bit of P4P history the best example will be France which was Europe's main playground (P4P,GFE and NON PRO) in the 60's and 70's and I bet that mongers who were having fun at that time thought the fun is gonna stay for long time.Suddenly in the begining of the 80s things changed FOREVER and with all these the dollar was still strong for another 15 years.I think we are entering a phase where the currency exchange rate won't matter as much as it did so far.
So my question is if in 3 years the exchange rate will be 1usd=3 ,4 or even 5 Reals do you thing that Rio is still going to be the same?
I don't think so but that is just MHO.
Like I said maybe it was not the right thread to post this but in a way i feel it is.If you guys want to take the time to answer me I would like to hear your opinions on this.
Happy huntingBrazil will be the same, because of the 800 pound gorilla in the room that nobody wants to admit is in the room. Not even the gorilla. And that is the Brazilian caste system. Once the favelas disappear or its marginalized residents have the same opportunities as the upper class, then things will change.
The so-called "Bradley Effect" is no more. I don't know if you're American or not, but McFossil's goin' down big-time in Nov. I believe McFossil is on a suicide mission, cause every time he opens his mouth...he loses lots of votes.
There's a new sheriff in town. In Nov., America will witness the "Obama Effect" -- Barack Obama will win by a landslide, and a lot of Democrats will ride his coattails. The Republicans are DONE.Let me guess, racism is anathema to you but ageism is perfectly acceptable. :rolleyes:
If you think Barack Hussein Obama is going to win by a landslide in Nov. then you know very little about US politics.
Ken_Apples
07-02-08, 01:07
Fact: The army will not move out of Iraq in the nearest future, no matter who wins.
Fact: The cost for the operation will continue to dig a huge hole in the goverment finances.
Fact: The next president will be starting his period with a huge national debt, of a size never seen before.
He starts the job with that "gift" in the knees, and the voters (in both camps) who vote for a difference in politics, are in for a big surprise.
The debt itself will make it very, very hard to put on reforms without taxraises. And all presidents know that no president get's popular from taxraises.
So that is not likely to happen.
The only way out is to slowly steer the county in a new direction, and that might take as long as the whole 4 years, just to get started.
Make no mistake: The next president will have to face many, many voters that did hope for alot more.
So that's why the Dollar will stay weak towards the Real for a longer period.
Just my 50 cent,
Regards / Ken Apples
CBGBConnisur
07-02-08, 14:54
I would say the US is going to leave Iraq very soon under Obama. It will stay on the entire McCain term. Its still doubtful McCain will win. Iran is most likely to become a nuclear power as well which will tip the balance of power in the region away from the US.
Still I do not see the US Dollar remaining the world reserve currency for much longer. China eventually will allow the yuan to float and when that happens it will rise like a rocket to the moon, it will also completely ruin the middle class way of life in the US while the situation for China's middle class will change for the better. The Euro has strengthened against the Dollar but realistically Europe is disjointed and most of its economies are in as much a mess as the US.
Brazil is a major supplier for China and much of its exports are commodities, as long as commodity prices stay high, the currencies of major commodities exporters will continue to remain strong. So the Real, Aussie, and Canadian Dollar will be strong for a very long time.
The IMF is performing an audit of the Federal Reserve, this has hardly made headlines but it is big news, because the IMF usually only audits third world countries.
This china is going to rule the world is at present just another "bubble". Here is why.
China's GDP represents about 7% of total world GDP. Europe and the US combined are at about 60% of world GDP. At present growth rates *if nothing changes* it will take approximately 40 years for China to be at 30% of world GDP. Note the qualification if nothing changes. It is still a 3rd world country, anything could happen to take it off its current path.
China's economy is still planned, it is not a market driven economy and it lacks many of the sophisticated aspects of developed economies. It's capital markets are 50 years behind the rest of the world. Adding to this, Europe and the US will not tolerate many of the things china is being allowed to do,forever. Like artificially keeping it currency so low, and hence making its exports absurdly cheap. If it's currency was properly floated, many of the advantages it has in manufacturing would disappear overnight.
My personal view is that China has a chance of becoming a developed country in maybe 50 years, however history would suggest that odds are against it and if it does get there, there will be major - major setbacks along the way.
China is in a golden period right now, lets see how well it does when things get tough!
I have said it before here and will say it again.When the whole world, including your average man in the street who is not really qualified to understand all aspects out of their chosen fields, says one thing. Then that is a good time to start looking at the contrary view of the world economy.
If you think Barack Hussein Obama is going to win by a landslide in Nov. then you know very little about US politics.
I agree. The depth of the racism and the stupidity of the majority of Americans cannot be overstated. The Republicans have presidential, senatorial, gubanatorial elections for decades, based on the exploitation of these two factors. Even Clinton pulled a 'Willie Horton' for the Whites when he targeted Sista Souljah.
If Obama wins, it will be close. I don't put it past states like Florida and Ohio to mysteriously develop voting machine problems in the precincts with high numbers of registered Democratic voters.
This china is going to rule the world is at present just another "bubble". Here is why.
China's GDP represents about 7% of total world GDP. Europe and the US combined are at about 60% of world GDP. At present growth rates *if nothing changes* it will take approximately 40 years for China to be at 30% of world GDP. Note the qualification if nothing changes. It is still a 3rd world country, anything could happen to take it off its current path.
Exactly! And I believe China is being bumped off its path RIGHT NOW!
The smart money believes that current oil prices are being driven by demand, not speculation. China is held responsible for much of that demand. What is not discussed as much as that China and other Asian countries subsidize gasoline prices for their citizens. As oil price rise higher, the costs of those subsidies also rises.
I am sure China cannot afford this for long. It lowered its gas subsidy last week. On Monday, it lowered its subsidy on jet fuel for its national airlines. As these subsidies are removed due to their high cost, and the true price of oil is borne by the consumers in China, their demand for it will drop. I doubt it will lead to $40 oil again, but it will fall below $100 in 2009 on the back of a world recession. There is no way the world economy can sustain $150 oil for more than a quarter or two months.
If you overlay the chart of Oil with most major bubbles over the last 20 years it is an almost perfect fit. It is in its final parabolic climax stage now. Not saying it can't go higher, even much higher in the short term. These bubbles can go on longer than anybody thinks. The tech bubble took 2 years longer to crack than I though, but the end always comes.
Demand has fallen in Europe the last 2 years. It will fall in the US this year, granted this is the first fall in 20 years, but it is falling. The only place oil demand has been increasing was in the emerging markets. The emerging markets are also lifting their subsidies now as George pointed out. Just last week China raised its prices by 20% (btw, this is another example why China won't rule the world under current its current structure - you can't control markets forever, they will murder you if you try). A host of other countries in the emerging market scene are doing the same. Net world wide oil demand will fall this year.
The first part of the price increase was the demand increase, the last part of the increase been driven by a perfect storm of investment flows. The main cause has been big investment funds looking for a place to put their cash, they can't put it into the stock market (its sick) , they can't put it into property right now (thats even sicker), you can't put it into toxic company paper (the credit crunch is still raging and many of these markets are still frozen) , there are very few places that are showing a return. Commodities and Oil are virtually the only parts of the vast financial markets that are still showing gains.
In a bear market, the bear seeks out the last places where the money is hiding and will take that down too. Oil and commodities are the last places.
CNN has Obama at 49, McCain at 45.
The very same poll has it even closer if Nadar runs. Btw, Nadar spent a lot of time in Brazil as a youth ( do you think he banged some of Brazil's finest? Hope so.
For the record I would vote democrat if I was a US citizen. I would have preferred Hillary but would take Obama over McCain basically because the latter appears to be economically inept. Nice guy though, in fact both Obama and McCain seem to be decent people as opposed to the correct president and vp.
CBGBConnisur
07-02-08, 20:20
Only Bush would have attacked Iran, he has only six months left in office, its doubtful he is going to start another war, the Democrats already want to impeach him over Iraq.
Obama will not win by a landslide but he will win by a few points, even Rightwing nut Rupert Murdoch, head of Fox News, indirectly endorsed him.
Obama is still going to have a hard time changing the image of the US in the eyes of the world, it will be very uphill. A lot of people got really upset to see Bush get elected again in 2004.
Iran might start trading oil for Euros, that will totally screw up the US economy which depends on petrodollars to finance debt. Russia is also going along with this, either way, I see China coming up on top in the next couple of decades for sure.
Obama for sure will not attack Iran.
The Chinese yuan is ridiculously undervalued, probably one third of its real fair value, I expect the currency to appreciate to its fair value once the Chinese decide to let it float. Its going to change the dynamics of the world economy forever, and will be particularly bad for the US Dollar. Oil producing countries are having a bigger say in the fate of the industrialized nations of the world, if they start pricing oil in yuan or Euros...that is the end of the Dollar.
True right now the EU and US account for 60 percent of the world economy in nominal terms. Still nothing lasts forever.
Obama for sure will not attack Iran.
He won't have to. Israel will do it for him, there is no fucking way they are going to let Iran have nuclears.
Obama probably will win, but it will be closer than one thinks. Especially as he has to tip toe around so many issues, one wrong foot and it could well loose him the election, or some one else could say something stupid on his behalf.
He won't have to. Israel will do it for him, there is no fucking way they are going to let Iran have nuclears.
If people think $4.00US is expensive right now for a gallon of gas they have not seen nothing yet if Israel attacks Iran gas is going to be $10.00US-$20.00US for gallon of gas here in America......not good at all if this happens. There are going to be some ruff times here in America for all Americans who live here.
Wanna bet!!?? The mood of America currently throws all CW out the window. For example, I live in Calif., and the most recent poll here shows Barack Obama ahead of McFossil by nearly 30 points!!! Every current poll of the big states in the US show a similar lead for Obama. Many of the traditionally Republican voting states show Obama with a lead, or a tie with McFossil at worst.
So, unless Barack Obama implodes, he's gonna waltz right into the White House.I Iive in Cali too....ground zero for the bradley effect. But Obama will sweep Cali.
Here is the way it will play out.
Obama gets Blacks and Educated Whites and Showbiz people.
---------------------------------------
McCain gets Latinos. They will never vote for a black. Same thing for Asians.
He gets evangelicals. You just hit them with the big 3. Abortion, Gay Marriage and Flag burning. Their eyes gloss over. He gets corporates Whites and small business men. They want low taxes and no bid contracts. And he gets working class Whites. They may be poor, but at least they are not Black. They give excuses like, he won't wear a flag pin, he's a muslim, he won't put his hand over his heart, he doesn't know the National Anthem. I'd like to hear Bush sing the National Anthem. Add to that the Bradley effect. Need I say more.
Even Rightwing nut Rupert Murdoch, head of Fox News, indirectly endorsed him.
This is a rope-a-dope.You might remember the other day. Fox News called the Obama's dap a "SECRET TERRORIST HANDSHAKE." How does Fox News know what a secret terrorist handshake looks like?
When war breaks out in the gulf there is historically a 10 – 20% spike in the price of oil. There is no precedent for doubling.
Even if the price of gas was to double in the US, then that would bring it in line with what we pay in Europe. I used to think how ridiculous it was when I would go to the US and see the amount of huge cars and huge pickups on the road and only have 1 person inside. You guys don’t know how lucky you have had it with cheap gas for so long.
I personally would like to see gas stay at this height for the near term. That would shock the western world into actually coming up with something that does not rely on oil as a means of transport. With all the know how in the world, there has to be a better source of energy than relaying on imported oil and being held hostage by unstable countries in the middle east. Yeah there would be short term pain and a lot of it, but at the end of the day we are all a resilent bunch and we would come out the other side much stronger and the economy in much better shape than it is now.
Only Bush would have attacked Iran, he has only six months left in office, its doubtful he is going to start another war, the Democrats already want to impeach him over Iraq.
Obama will not win by a landslide but he will win by a few points, even Rightwing nut Rupert Murdoch, head of Fox News, indirectly endorsed him.
Obama is still going to have a hard time changing the image of the US in the eyes of the world, it will be very uphill. A lot of people got really upset to see Bush get elected again in 2004.
Iran might start trading oil for Euros, that will totally screw up the US economy which depends on petrodollars to finance debt. Russia is also going along with this, either way, I see China coming up on top in the next couple of decades for sure.
Obama for sure will not attack Iran.
The Chinese yuan is ridiculously undervalued, probably one third of its real fair value, I expect the currency to appreciate to its fair value once the Chinese decide to let it float. Its going to change the dynamics of the world economy forever, and will be particularly bad for the US Dollar. Oil producing countries are having a bigger say in the fate of the industrialized nations of the world, if they start pricing oil in yuan or Euros...that is the end of the Dollar.
True right now the EU and US account for 60 percent of the world economy in nominal terms. Still nothing lasts forever.This talk of bombing Iran is more about the Dollar than about nukes. In February Iran created an oil Bourse. The IOB. Iran is now asking for payment for its oil in currencies other than the dollar. They would like this to spread to all the oil producing countries. Iran is reported to have converted all of its oil export payments to non-dollar currencies.
CBGBConnisur
07-02-08, 21:40
I live in Australia, I am no longer in the US.
Even if Israel attacks Iran, there is no way gas will be 10 to 20 US dollar a gallon, a new conflict would raise gas prices but not that dramatically. Europeans pay around $9US a gallon, hence Europeans drive smaller cars and often use more public transportation.
The US Dollar's fate is being increasingly controlled by OPEC and China which are the largest foreign holders of the Greenback, most experts see both OPEC and China diversify their massive reserves to a basket of different currencies.
Brazil is considered to be one of the top four up and coming economies of the 21st Century along with India, China, and Russia. I just don't see the Real's value dropping dramatically any time soon, especially since commodity prices continue to remain high.
Brazil has been using Biodiesel as alternative fuel. In Australia, LPG is a cheap alternative to regular auto fuel. There are also electric and fuel cell vehicles.
Honda introduced a zero emissions fuel cell car. Tesla has its electric roadster but at over 100k, few people could afford it.
CBGBConnisur
07-03-08, 02:53
Even FoxNews, which is the most Republican biased news network, sees Obama winning by a minimum of 6 points. I don't think this will be a 1992 like election where Clinton won by a landslide but Obama will win by a considerable margin.
When war breaks out in the gulf there is historically a 10 – 20% spike in the price of oil. There is no precedent for doubling.
I read today that some investors have bought oil futures contracts for December delivery at $300 a barrel!!! An analyst was quoted as calling it "Iran War Insurance", meaning a lot of money believes oil will sell at MORE than $300 a barrel in early '09 if Israel attacks Iran.
Do you really need to refer to McCain, a respected decent man, in a derogatory way, namely his age? I am sure you would be jumping up and down screaming blue murder if someone referred to Obama's race in any way shape or form. If you want someone to respect you, your views, your race and to treat you accordingly, you need to likewise show that person respect until their actions dictate otherwise.
I could understand someone being really pissed off at Bush, he probably deserves it, his actions merit very little respect, but McCain on the other hand has shown himself to be a way above average senator. I say this even though I would vote for the Deomcrats this time around.
I live in Australia, I am no longer in the US.
Brazil has been using Biodiesel as alternative fuel. In Australia, LPG is a cheap alternative to regular auto fuel. There are also electric and fuel cell vehicles.
Honda introduced a zero emissions fuel cell car. Tesla has its electric roadster but at over 100k, few people could afford it.
Dont forget the use of natural gas; In Rio most Taxis as well as many private cars are running on natural gas, which costs 10 times less than gasoline. Most flex cars are now running solely on alcool and many gas stations are adding ennormous amounts of alcool and solvents to the gasoline, causing serious problems for owners of gasoline only cars.
Wanderer1000
07-03-08, 15:46
A block back from the Rio Othon Hotel is Ben Brothers. I changed dollars over two weeks ago at about three reals over the official exchange rate. When I went back yesterday, I got about four reals over the official rate - took just a moment of negotiating. Eduardo is a nice guy and I enjoyed doing business with him. He said he likes to make friends, that´s probably why he went another real higher - whatever.
A block back from the Rio Othon Hotel is Ben Brothers. I changed dollars over two weeks ago at about three reals over the official exchange rate. When I went back yesterday, I got about four reals over the official rate - took just a moment of negotiating. Eduardo is a nice guy and I enjoyed doing business with him. He said he likes to make friends, that´s probably why he went another real higher - whatever.Have you tried exchanging at L'uomos? If so, how did they compare?
Dont forget the use of natural gas; In Rio most Taxis as well as many private cars are running on natural gas, which costs 10 times less than gasoline. Most flex cars are now running solely on alcool and many gas stations are adding ennormous amounts of alcool and solvents to the gasoline, causing serious problems for owners of gasoline only cars.A bit out of real prices.
In Rio the Gasoline is avg. 2.5 - 3 reais/litre, depending the quality.
Alcohol about 1.4/litre
Natural Gas about 1.4/ cubic metre.
With Natural Gas you'll get worse mileage than with other fuels, so it's not really 10 times cheaper. Actually its more economic nowadays to run with alcohol than natural gas.
Also there is another point, natural gas destroys car engine really quick. Not really recommendable.
Obama is in fact leading McFossil in CALIFORNIA by nearly 30 points...and his lead will only increase here as Nov. approaches.California is full of perverts and retards, liberals and morons
Obama bin Laden will never win once the Republician machine gets going.
I agree. However, who's mainly at fault for all this mess???
Answer: The 'buffoon' in the White House, and the Republican party. I will take great pleasure seeing the Republicans go down big-time in Nov.
Another thing: If Israel attacks Iran, then the price of a barrel of oil will hit US $300, or more. There will be gas rationing and riots in America. The global economy will go into depression. It won't be a pretty sight.The USollar will not be replaced as the world currency.
True it will fall futher and maybe a new currency will be born in the americas
but the USA will control the reserve currency.
Now a funny thing some of your LIBERAL mayors of cities like Los Angeles
declared they don't want to import dirty OIL from Canada's OilSands, which is by the way the largest resource on the planet and will be the backbone of north american energy security
It takes a LIBERAL or a DEMOCRAT to be that stupid
Obama bin laden babbled some real crap during his race with Hillary, about changing the Canada USA free trade deal (hmmm I guess he doesn't want our trillion barrels of OIL after all)
what a stupid dopey fugga or just a damned liar
By the way the Democrats control the congress and the Senate and now the USA is heading down the Tubes, they are sure doing a masterful job
Real won't drop anytime soon due to strong commodity situation at the moment. Brazil has a huge surplus on commodities (Brazil is self sufficient for energy and exports coffee, sugar, lumbers, etc) and there's no way we will see a $1= 2 or 3 real anytime soon.
Gas price may go up to $150-160 per barrell but this can not continue for a long time since this will be end of the world for most people. People say the demand is cause of spiking oil but 50% increase over last six months dont make sense (people knew that demand was going up for last 2-3 years; speculators/hedge funds have nowhere to invest at the moment - stock/real esate are not hopeful at the moment - therefore they invest in our essentials such as energy and food). I think it will come down to about $110-120/barrell around late 2008/early 2009.
At the moment, people's sentiment is so devastated due to high oil price, falling housing values, and the Iraq war. Probably Obama will take the white house. McCain can't seem to present an image which tells people that he will make correct changes. Barack is saying all the things people want to hear and people are desperate enough to take a chance on him rather than McCain.
Alex Deuce
07-04-08, 17:21
I normally do not lend much credence to wiki. I only use it for my friends that don't like to read multiple books. This article has some absolutely glaring observations on both sides about the Great Depression and our current state.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Depression
O! and Bill1963 a couple of things;
1. Yes, we are in danger of having the dollar being removed as the reserve currency. The stability and value of the US dollar is being undermined by our deficit spending and low rate of return for foreign investors. Russia and even our lil friends the Saudis have been pointing this out. Our currency is one of the major factors in the rise in the cost of Fuel along with speculation. And don't give me that shit about more drilling. Its pure BS! There a over 100 million acres not 70 that have not been touched. Will we eventually have to drill more? Yes, no doubt. But our drilling should be based upon finding additional supplies not whether a company can make 6% or 10% ROI. Its called GREED. You noticed that no oil company has been clamoring to give back their offshore oil lease. Hell the only state that has bought them back has been Florida. The only reason that happened was that the oil companies were friends of the Bush's and the Presidents Brother was placating the tourist industry for re-election.
2. I am an independent and I will say this, for a nation with over a 302 million people to have these two candidates is a fucking shame. I hate both parties. Both are full of shit and allow special interest to rob America blind.
3. McCaine is about as competent as George Bush. You see it in his slow comprehension of the major issues and his dogged clinging to ideals that got us in to this mess. If you want to talk about good Republicans with Ideas and the mental capacity to move this nation forward, lets talk about Trent Lott and Newt Gengrich. The problem is that both men fell into the same moral virtue and rigid idioms of the rove machine that they set up for Democrats.
Lets get back to McCaine; He was a spoiled Military brat. He did not Excel at anything prior to being shot down over Hanoi. Im a military brat. You want to talk about a sticky issue? Ask a navy man about the career chances of a cadets that finishes 5th from bottom, crashed 4 planes, two of his own negligence, got caught twice for Adultry and insubordination. They would tell you that there is no chance in green hell he makes it past 4 years. But, we got ole Johnny daddy pulling the strings. There is a reason there are over 500 pages missing from his record. His time as a POW were the SINGULAR most heroic act of his life PERIOD. Everything else has been a smoke screen to cover up that he is borderline morally corrupt and does not have the mental capacity to effectively evaluate complex issues! His personality and history of a POW lead to his high praise as commander of the southeast training wing located at Cecil field in Jacksonville florida. Most of the administrative and planning work was done by his XO. Most military give him the benefit of the doubt cause of his POW status. But they all know how he got to where he is. And don’t get me start on the Keyton 5 incident. He was guilty as hell. He triangulated a position as a corruption fighter to cover up his own shit.
4. Obama, may be inexperienced but I believe he has the mental capacity to see beyond the trees in the forest. The major issue i have with him is that he refuses to grab his nuts and make a stand! It’s always the perceived weakness of practical people to waffle in the face of decisions. If he cannot convince me by the time of the election, I will be writing in "None of the Above."
5. A working person would be a damn fool to vote republican. They are continually voting against their own economic needs. John McCain says lets let the free market take care of the situation and give tax incentives. Well, you have to have a job to get the tax incentive. The free market regardless of regulation, says it’s cheaper due to wages and lack of competition for employees to move our shops to china and India. Therefore, how can an working American get a job and realize that tax break if he is unemployed? His would be boss is getting not only greater tax break than he but millions in stock options from moving that guys job. OO!! But they are bitter over democrat’s stances on Religion and Guns. Fucking ignorant Asses! So much so, that when their disposable income rose over 9% under Clinton/Newt they were still bitter and more concerned that the guy got a blow job than the fact that they had more money in the bank.
Last statement: "COMPETENCE OF IDEOLOGY IN 08" AND "GET TO BRAZIL BEFORE THE DOLLAR TANKS TO 1-1"
Wanderer1000
07-04-08, 17:36
Edward M -
I asked the exchange rate at Luomo on my second visit about 2+ weeks ago. It was the older lady behind the desk, the one who never wants to give you the receipt, and always rounds the bill up four or five reals. She told me 1.60R was the exchange - 2 below the official exchange at the time. I don´t like this lady - still pulls this crap on me after I´ve been going there many times over several weeks.
Of course, I should have asked again with the other ladies on another day, since I know you´ve said they´ve given a great exchange in the past. I just haven´t exchanged too many bills on this trip, so I didn´t bother.
It´s too bad that L let´s a lady like this play nickel and dime games with gringos (I assume she doesn´t pull this on brasileros, but who knows) - it´s not a big deal money wise, but it makes the customer feel disrespected.
CBGBConnisur
07-06-08, 01:38
The Euro has been rapidly replacing the US dollar as a popular reserve currency choice. Already the big OPEC nations are untying their currencies from the dollar and moving to a basket of currencies. The IMF recently audited the US Federal Reserve. The Dollar continues its swan dive, Ben Bernanke will never lift interest rates, he rather have hyperinflation than US economic slowdown.
The writing is on the wall for the Greenback, and it has absolutely nothing to do with Bush or Obama. The US has consumed more than it has produced for nearly four decades and now the chickens have come home to roost.
I could not give a flip what some moron canuck thinks of California and of Obama. Canadians like Bill hate Obama because he is going to throw NAFTA in the trash. Australia is lucky that it has China to fall back on than the US.
Alex Deuce
07-06-08, 02:28
The Euro has been rapidly replacing the US dollar as a popular reserve currency choice. Already the big OPEC nations are untying their currencies from the dollar and moving to a basket of currencies. The IMF recently audited the US Federal Reserve. The Dollar continues its swan dive, Ben Bernanke will never lift interest rates, he rather have hyperinflation than US economic slowdown.
The writing is on the wall for the Greenback, and it has absolutely nothing to do with Bush or Obama. The US has consumed more than it has produced for nearly four decades and now the chickens have come home to roost.
I could not give a flip what some moron canuck thinks of California and of Obama. Canadians like Bill hate Obama because he is going to throw NAFTA in the trash. Australia is lucky that it has China to fall back on than the US.
Ditto and my final thought was suppose to read as ;
COMPETENCE OVER IDEOLOGY IN 08" AND "GET TO BRAZIL BEFORE THE DOLLAR TANKS TO 1-1
When the majority of people are saying this, that just backs up that the market will do the exact opposite. We are very close to the bottom of the dollar cycle. The more people that say what is below, the better it is.
You racially slur Asians and Whites. You also use discrimatory comments about McCains age?
You are a rascist and a biggot. You are exactly the type of person he has had to distance himself from to keep his chances alive.
Alex Deuce
07-06-08, 19:36
When the majority of people are saying this, that just backs up that the market will do the exact opposite. We are very close to the bottom of the dollar cycle. The more people that say what is below, the better it is.
Bubba I have used your Rio guides with the great success and look at you as being very knowledgeable of Rio. However, i am going to have to respectfully disagree on your assumption of the resiliency of the American Dollar. The American Consumer has been floating this economy for decades. We have a trade imbalance excluding oil that is sending trillions of money out of the US economy on a yearly basis. Our mid level management and skilled and semi skilled workers are loosing income and jobs by the millions every year. Therefore, when the consumer/worker has no more credit nor access to a decent wage the economy will slow and start to retreat. You think the dollar is weak now? Wait until the first quarterly negative GDP report. A negative GDP report is coming before the election. The administration is running out gimmicks to publish it as positive. I look at the markets as predictors of GDP, especially in the manufacturing and retail sectors. Anybody looked at Bloomburge or the Wall street lately?
PS. I hate McCain Als0! Not because of his age, race or constituency. I hate McShame because he is not the person he was in 2000. He is not the straight shooter with common sense solutions to problems. He is what he is trying to paint Obamma as; "A political Hack that will Say or change any position to win. And that shit with Bud Day was the most absolutely Hypocritical, Low Class ,immoral (and yes immoral) thing i have ever seen! McCain might just actually be the Manchurian candidate for real!
Vote "None of the Above in 08"
I have noticed that there seems to be some antagonizing going on concerning the political candidates and as a result some race baiting. I understand that everyone has an opinion but can we try to focus on monetary policy instead of quips about race and politics? When it is all said and done the information and tips on this site are designed to help all of us. Who cares about race really when we all utilize the information provided on this site to enjoy the p4p scene.
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