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Wandering Fool
10-07-08, 22:25
George, got my hands full right now, but market manipulation works something like this -- you upgrade one day and I downgrade the next. You are a large institutional investor and make a few calls letting others know you are selling. Next day they call you. If you do not think it goes on ...
As long as they can avoid the FCC they might have a small effect. Right now everyone is just along for the ride.
Exec Talent
10-07-08, 22:38
As long as they can avoid the FCC they might have a small effect. Right now everyone is just along for the ride.
FCC is the Federal Communications Commission.
http://www.fcc.gov/
I think you mean the SEC (Securities & Exchange Commission).
http://www.sec.gov/
Like the fox guarding the hen house.
George, got my hands full right now, but market manipulation works something like this -- you upgrade one day and I downgrade the next. You are a large institutional investor and make a few calls letting others know you are selling. Next day they call you. If you do not think it goes on ...
E.T.,
What you briefly describe is not market manipulation. It is something referred to as the 'fourth market' of securities trading. Large institutional investors trade with each other directly in order to avoid the large broker fees they incur when traditional brokers are used to execute their trades.
The following is quoted from a finance book I have written by Jack Francis, a professor of finance at Baruch College in New York City.
"The fourth market is made up of telephone lines and telecommunications networks between market makers, block traders, and institutions. Fouth-market participants bypass the normal dealer services. Buyers and sellers in the fourth market can negociate with each other over price and quantity. The fourth market is an important part of the secondary market in the US because it provides competition for the other markets (exchanges) and has been a leader in innovation."
Large institutional traders can influence the prices of the stocks they trade in due to the large size of their orders. Other influential traders are investors, like Warren Buffet, who attract copycats who mimmick and therefore amplify their orders. None of this is market manipulation.
Exec Talent
10-07-08, 23:38
E.T.,
What you briefly describe is not market manipulation. It is something referred to as the 'fourth market' of securities trading. Large institutional investors trade with each other directly in order to avoid the large broker fees they incur when traditional brokers are used to execute their trades.
The following is quoted from a finance book I have written by Jack Francis, a professor of finance at Baruch College in New York City.
"The fourth market is made up of telephone lines and telecommunications networks between market makers, block traders, and institutions. Fouth-market participants bypass the normal dealer services. Buyers and sellers in the fourth market can negociate with each other over price and quantity. The fourth market is an important part of the secondary market in the US because it provides competition for the other markets (exchanges) and has been a leader in innovation."
Large institutional traders can influence the prices of the stocks they trade in due to the large size of their orders. Other influential traders are investors, like Warren Buffet, who attract copycats who mimmick and therefore amplify their orders. None of this is market manipulation.
I live in the Real World not an academic one. We had enough of that around here with another guy named Mac. Not interested in getting into that again.
Wandering Fool
10-08-08, 00:33
FCC is the Federal Communications Commission.
http://www.fcc.gov/
I think you mean the SEC (Securities & Exchange Commission).
http://www.sec.gov/
Like the fox guarding the hen house.
Correct, I was in a hurry and mistyped as I had just been discussing FCC with someone here in the real world.
Dow 9,447, so apparently the market manipulators have decided they don't want to live in Greenwich anymore.
Rock Harders
10-08-08, 00:41
Mongers-
Brasil is now about 45% cheaper for dollar-packing travellers than it was just back in July, when we had 1.59. The Real closed at 2.31 today, and my guess is within 10 days we will have 2.5. However, the truth is that Brasil will weather this crisis, albeit with a weakened currency that will eventually settle around 2.25 to the dollar, whereas Argentina, my current residence, could be seeing the beginning of the end as a result of the aftershocks of what is quickly becoming a global economic crisis. The difference is that Brasil got its financial house in order during its most recent boom times whereas Argentina, sadly, yet predictably, failed to do so and now carries more debt than they had at the time of their default in 2002. We will see a 4-1 AR pesos/US Dollar rate before the end of the year.
Suerte,
Rock Harders
Wandering Fool
10-08-08, 00:57
Mongers-
Brasil is now about 45% cheaper for dollar-packing travellers than it was just back in July, when we had 1.59. The Real closed at 2.31 today, and my guess is within 10 days we will have 2.5. However, the truth is that Brasil will weather this crisis, albeit with a weakened currency that will eventually settle around 2.25 to the dollar, whereas Argentina, my current residence, could be seeing the beginning of the end as a result of the aftershocks of what is quickly becoming a global economic crisis. The difference is that Brasil got its financial house in order during its most recent boom times whereas Argentina, sadly, yet predictably, failed to do so and now carries more debt than they had at the time of their default in 2002. We will see a 4-1 AR pesos/US Dollar rate before the end of the year.
Suerte,
Rock Harders
CNN just reported a 20% increase in foot traffic outside of Help and the price of lube is the only thing INCREASING in Copa! :)
Hey RH, What's the going rate in Argentina for high quality pros?
Correct, I was in a hurry and mistyped as I had just been discussing FCC with someone here in the real world.
Dow 9,447, so apparently the market manipulators have decided they don't want to live in Greenwich anymore.
Look for the Dow to bottom out in the 8000 range.
I live in the Real World not an academic one. We had enough of that around here with another guy named Mac. Not interested in getting into that again.
I guess that is your way of debasing academic knowledge. That's OK. There are enough investment managers of the caliber of Henry Paulson or Robert Rubin, who have graduate business degrees from the academic world and are doing very well in the real world thanks to those academic degrees, for those of us who respect academic knowledge to get over your insult.
Exec Talent
10-08-08, 02:03
Correct, I was in a hurry and mistyped as I had just been discussing FCC with someone here in the real world.
Dow 9,447, so apparently the market manipulators have decided they don't want to live in Greenwich anymore.
Who has money? I mean cash. Not the folks trading on margin or those who were depending on their 401Ks. Driving stocks down is what guys with money want. Buy low, sell high. It does not get more basic than that.
Exec Talent
10-08-08, 02:28
I guess that is your way of debasing academic knowledge. That's OK. There are enough investment managers of the caliber of Henry Paulson or Robert Rubin, who have graduate business degrees from the academic world and are doing very well in the real world thanks to those academic degrees, for those of us who respect academic knowledge to get over your insult.
I have TAUGHT finance in MBA programs. I was brought in when students got tired of professors with only book knowledge. You might take from that that I have a few advanced degrees. Like Richard Gere in Pretty Woman, I went all the way. Are we done?
Wandering Fool
10-08-08, 02:54
I have TAUGHT finance in MBA programs. I was brought in when students got tired of professors with only book knowledge. You might take from that that I have a few advanced degrees. Like Richard Gere in Pretty Woman, I went all the way. Are we done?
Sure you did Exec, sure you did.
Jamaicanceo
10-08-08, 04:37
by jane wardell, ap business writer tue oct 7, 3:40 pm et
reykjavik, iceland - this volcanic island near the arctic circle is on the brink of becoming the first "national bankruptcy" of the global financial meltdown.
home to just 320,000 people on a territory the size of kentucky, iceland has formidable international reach because of an outsized banking sector that set out with viking confidence to conquer swaths of the british economy — from fashion retailers to top soccer teams.
the strategy gave icelanders one of the world's highest per capita incomes. but now they are watching helplessly as their economy implodes — their currency losing almost half its value, and their heavily exposed banks collapsing under the weight of debts incurred by lending in the boom times.
"everything is closed. we couldn't sell our stock or take money from the bank," said johann sigurdsson as he left a branch of landsbanki in downtown reykjavik.
the government had earlier announced it had nationalized the bank under emergency laws enacted to deal with the crisis.
"we have been forced to take decisive action to save the country," prime minister geir h. haarde said of those sweeping new powers that allow the government to take over companies, limit the authority of boards, and call shareholder meetings.
a full-blown collapse of iceland's financial system would send shock waves across europe, given the heavy investment by icelandic banks and companies across the continent.
one of iceland's biggest companies, retailing investment group baugur, owns or has stakes in dozens of major european retailers — including enough to make it the largest private company in britain, where it owns a handful of stores such as the famous toy store hamley's.
kaupthing, iceland's largest bank and one of those whose share trading was suspended last week to stop a huge sell-off, has also invested in european retail groups.
thousands of britons have accounts with icesave, the online arm of landsbanki that regulators said was likely to file for bankruptcy after it stopped permitting customers to withdraw money from their accounts tuesday.
to try to wrest control of the spiraling situation, the government also loaned $680 million to kaupthing to tide it over and said it was negotiating a $5.4 billion loan from russia to shore up the nation's finances.
the speed of iceland's downfall in the week since it announced it was nationalizing glitnir bank, the country's third largest, caught many by surprise despite warnings that it was the "canary in the coal mine" of the global credit squeeze.
famous for its cod fishing industry, geysers, moonscape and the blue lagoon, iceland was the site of the cold war showdown in which bobby fischer of the united states defeated boris spassky of the soviet union in 1972 for the world chess championship. last year, iceland won the u.n.'s "best country to live in" poll, with its residents deemed the most contented in the world.
no more.
despite sunny skies tuesday after three days of unseasonably cold weather, reykjavik's mood remained grim — cafes were half-empty, real estate agents sat idle, and retailers reported few sales.
"i'm really starting to get worried now. everything is bad news. i don't know what's happening," said retiree helga jonsdottir as she headed to a supermarket.
icelanders are also beginning to question how a relative few were able to generate the disproportionate wealth — and associated debt — that haarde has warned puts the entire country at risk of bankruptcy.
iceland's reinvention from the poor cousin in europe to one of the region's wealthiest countries dates to the deregulation of the banking industry and the creation of the domestic stock market in the mid-1990s.
those free market reforms turned iceland from a conservative, inward-looking country to one of a new generation of internationally educated young businessmen and women who were determined to give iceland a modern profile far beyond its fishing base.
entrepreneurs become its greatest export, as banks and companies marched across europe and their acquisition wallets were filled by a stock market boom and a well-funded pension system. among the purchases were the iconic hamley's toy store and the west ham soccer team.
back home, the average family's wealth soared 45 percent in half a decade and gross domestic product rose at around 5 percent a year.
but the whole system was built on a shaky foundation of foreign debt.
the country's top four banks now hold foreign liabilities in excess of $100 billion, debts that dwarf iceland's gross domestic product of $14 billion.
those external liabilities mean the private sector has had great difficulty financing its debts, such as the more than $5.25 billion racked up by kaupthing in five years to help fund british deals.
iceland is unique "because the sheer size of its financial sector puts it in a vulnerable situation, and its currency has always been seen as a high risk and high yield," said venla sipila, a senior economist at global insight in london.
the krona is suffering in part from a withdrawal by a falloff in what are called carry trades — where investors borrow cheaply in a country with low rates, such as japan, and invest in a country where returns, and often risks, are higher.
after watching the free-fall for several days, the central bank of iceland stepped in tuesday to fix the exchange rate of the currency at 175 — a level equal to 131 krona against the euro.
haarde said he believed the measures had renewed confidence in the system. he also was critical of the lack of an europe-wide response to the crisis, saying iceland had been forced to adopt an "every-country-for-itself" mentality.
he acknowledged that iceland's financial reputation was likely to suffer from both the crisis and the response despite strong fundamentals such as the fishing industry and clean and renewable energy resources.
as regular icelanders begin to blame the government and market regulators, haarde said the banks had been "victims of external circumstances."
richard portes of the london business school agreed, noting the banks were well-capitalized and had not bought any of the toxic debt that has brought down banks elsewhere.
"i believe it is absolutely wrong to say these banks were reckless," said. "quite the contrary. they were hugely unlucky."
Look for the Dow to bottom out in the 8000 range.
About a month ago I wrote:
"DJI 10.700 resistance was broken yesterday, 9.800 being next one.
Hope to be wrong though because I am not an expert but a dummy investor
who played the markets down two months ago. 50% down being the limit.
I hope this limit will not be reached but very close might be the extreme of this turmoil. IMHO we are at the very begining."
It seems that we are heading this way and I am gonna get fucked up.
NIKKEI is the one that worry’s me the most.
So far I was wrong about the dollar and Bubba Boy was correct. Unless we are seeing a fool's rally.
Meaning that those who did the "colpo grosso" of all times are looking of selling their dollars high before it collapses too.
So far we haven't seen retail banks closing, even for a few hours, and ATMs empty. That is what governments and central banks want to avoid.
If that happens dollar/euro/real etc will not have the meaning (and the value)that they have today. Only food will matter and it is going to be very costly.
Premise story to why Real & Euro will weaken further & dollar will dominate in Brazil...
Maybe one of all the "experts" can explain to me why the Euro will weaken and the dollar dominate in Brazil?
I can see that the Real is weaking and the dollar that has been very low is strengthening, but why would the dollar dominate in Brazil?
Maybe one of all the "experts" can explain to me why the Euro will weaken and the dollar dominate in Brazil?
I can see that the Real is weaking and the dollar that has been very low is strengthening, but why would the dollar dominate in Brazil?
I am not an expert and nor I can understand this conclusion.
The Iceland "Krona" have always been very risky through the history and are not so connected to the Euro. They (320.000) live mainly of fish export and tourism. Iceland are not a part of the EU. Their situation are different from many other countries in Europe, e.g. Norway, as have offered Iceland a $6.6 billion emergency loan to help the Iceland government.
Jamaicanceo
10-08-08, 16:46
Maybe one of all the "experts" can explain to me why the Euro will weaken and the dollar dominate in Brazil?
I can see that the Real is weaking and the dollar that has been very low is strengthening, but why would the dollar dominate in Brazil?When the American economy catches a cold, the world economies get pneumonia. The Euro, hence, European state. All those European countries are propped up on the American economy, and that includes the Yen. Remember, after WWII, America solely rebuilt Europe and Japan. Those currencies are depends on America. Our trillion dollar loss in NYSE is triple elsewhere. Why in the hell do you think Russia, Brasil and other markets had to close and stop trading. Or were you paying equal attention to the markets as you do ISG? Yes, IDG is more important to me too, but I WATCH both forums.
Thank you very much!
Jamaicanceo
10-08-08, 16:49
I am not an expert and nor I can understand this conclusion.
The Iceland "Krona" have always been very risky through the history and are not so connected to the Euro. They (320.000) live mainly of fish export and tourism. Iceland are not a part of the EU. Their situation are different from many other countries in Europe, e.g. Norway, as have offered Iceland a $6.6 billion emergency loan to help the Iceland government.With all do respects, I don't think Sperto read the article. If he re-reads it he will find this:
"A full-blown collapse of Iceland's financial system would send shock waves across Europe, given the heavy investment by Icelandic banks and companies across the continent.
One of Iceland's biggest companies, retailing investment group Baugur, owns or has stakes in dozens of major European retailers — including enough to make it the largest private company in Britain, where it owns a handful of stores such as the famous toy store Hamley's.
Kaupthing, Iceland's largest bank and one of those whose share trading was suspended last week to stop a huge sell-off, has also invested in European retail groups.
Thousands of Britons have accounts with Icesave, the online arm of Landsbanki that regulators said was likely to file for bankruptcy after it stopped permitting customers to withdraw money from their accounts Tuesday.
To try to wrest control of the spiraling situation, the government also loaned $680 million to Kaupthing to tide it over and said it was negotiating a $5.4 billion loan from Russia to shore up the nation's finances."
Originally Posted by Exec Talent :
I have TAUGHT finance in MBA programs. I was brought in when students got tired of professors with only book knowledge. You might take from that that I have a few advanced degrees. Like Richard Gere in Pretty Woman, I went all the way. Are we done?
Sure you did Exec, sure you did.
Wandering Fool,
I had the pleasure to meet Exec Talent very recently and to discuss some business with him. I must say that I was impressed with his very sound business sense. Bear in mind that I have graduated from one of the world's best MBA program myself.
Regards.
Bimbo Boy.
Only the US market has the mechanisms to adjust with corrections in market free falls instead of market shutdown. When the dust clears, only the dollar will be standing tall.
Past recent history has shown that the US rich ruling class has been very successful in stealing in the poors' pockets. Bearing this in mind, I could imagine the following scenario :
1° A dollar breakdown in order to wipe out the huge foreign debt and the US retirees pension funds.
2° Followed by a propped-up dollar in order to buy out foreign assets for cheap.
Paulson's 700B$ fund will probably come from newly printed money, so it is hard to imagine that this would not devaluate the dollar further.
So I foresee a one-two punch : a strongly devaluated dollar followed by a re-evaluation. For now, I will keep my assets in Euros until the dollar crashes.
The Brazilian Real should stay relatively close to the Euro, as I believe that the Brazilian economy has a lot going for it. Things should be much tougher in Argentina.
Well, this is my two-cents ... I am interested in your comments.
Regards.
BB.
Past recent history has shown that the US rich ruling class has been very successful in stealing in the poors' pockets. Bearing this in mind, I could imagine the following scenario :
1° A dollar breakdown in order to wipe out the huge foreign debt and the US retirees pension funds.
2° Followed by a propped-up dollar in order to buy out foreign assets for cheap.
Paulson's 700B$ fund will probably come from newly printed money, so it is hard to imagine that this would not devaluate the dollar further.
So I foresee a one-two punch : a strongly devaluated dollar followed by a re-evaluation. For now, I will keep my assets in Euros until the dollar crashes.
The Brazilian Real should stay relatively close to the Euro, as I believe that the Brazilian economy has a lot going for it. Things should be much tougher in Argentina.
Well, this is my two-cents ... I am interested in your comments.
Regards.
BB.
What if we are already in your scenario. What if we already had the one-two punch.
Dollar already devaluated at 1,6 to the euro (touched twice) re-evaluated plus the world financial meltdown.
What if your scenario has already been fulfilled and they start buying again in the next few days.
Wandering Fool
10-08-08, 18:50
Originally Posted by Exec Talent :
I have TAUGHT finance in MBA programs. I was brought in when students got tired of professors with only book knowledge. You might take from that that I have a few advanced degrees. Like Richard Gere in Pretty Woman, I went all the way. Are we done?
Wandering Fool,
I had the pleasure to meet Exec Talent very recently and to discuss some business with him. I must say that I was impressed with his very sound business sense. Bear in mind that I have graduated from one of the world's best MBA program myself.
Regards.
Bimbo Boy.
Hey, Bimbo, I appreciate your input, and that's great. But the successful people I know in the real world (100 mil through 1bil+ net worth), not some internet guy who has the need to have a self important name like "Exec Talent", don't make hindsight predictions on market movement to try to impress people. My comment stems back to that.
This is a non issue...until the next time Exec wants to joust with me ;)
Jamaicanceo
10-08-08, 18:52
Past recent history has shown that the US rich ruling class has been very successful in stealing in the poors' pockets. Bearing this in mind, I could imagine the following scenario :
1° A dollar breakdown in order to wipe out the huge foreign debt and the US retirees pension funds.
2° Followed by a propped-up dollar in order to buy out foreign assets for cheap.
Paulson's 700B$ fund will probably come from newly printed money, so it is hard to imagine that this would not devaluate the dollar further.
So I foresee a one-two punch : a strongly devaluated dollar followed by a re-evaluation. For now, I will keep my assets in Euros until the dollar crashes.
The Brazilian Real should stay relatively close to the Euro, as I believe that the Brazilian economy has a lot going for it. Things should be much tougher in Argentina.
Well, this is my two-cents ... I am interested in your comments.
Regards.
BB.All I can say is Russia and Brazil have closed their markets. The Russian market has won't be open until Friday after closing Monday. When is Brasil's going to reopen?
Russia is th largest market in Europe, and Brasil is the largest in South America. The American market is the largest in North America, if not the world, the generator of the ole mighty dollar. And, if we pull our military bases from the world, then the world would implode for the lack of dollars being spent by base personnel.
I don't have all the facts, but there is a possibility explaining the rise of the dollar could be that with all this de-leveraging globally & since over time so much debt has been denominated in dollars over time in order to pay that debt back you would have to sell an asset & buy the dollar. It could be bonds, foreign markets etc. So the dollar rise could be a short term illusion.
Don't take my statement out of context but this might be a possibility of the sudden rise.
Another possibility which happened today was for banks around the world to cut rates instead of the U.S cutting rates alone. Because its to no country's advantage to have a dollar collapse. Then global trade would collapse.
All according to XE.com:
Last night the exchange rate to the dollar was about R2.31.
Late this morning, about 3 hours ago, it was R2.17.
About 30 min ago it was R2.35866.
And Now:
18:39:22 UTC
1.00 USD = 2.27050 BRL
Talk about volatility! What a roller coaster ride!!
Exec Talent
10-08-08, 20:41
All according to XE.com:
Last night the exchange rate to the dollar was about R2.31.
Late this morning, about 3 hours ago, it was R2.17.
About 30 min ago it was R2.35866.
And Now:
18:39:22 UTC
1.00 USD = 2.27050 BRL
Talk about volatility! What a roller coaster ride!!
When all indications were that the dollar was on the rise, I let people here know and continued to let them know. The other day I said my crystal ball was broken. With so much government intervention and manipulation going on, it is next to impossible to predict anything.
Exec Talent
10-08-08, 20:45
Hey, Bimbo, I appreciate your input, and that's great. But the successful people I know in the real world (100 mil through 1bil+ net worth), not some internet guy who has the need to have a self important name like "Exec Talent", don't make hindsight predictions on market movement to try to impress people. My comment stems back to that.
This is a non issue...until the next time Exec wants to joust with me ;)
Having an intellectual discussion with you Fool (hmmm) is like dueling with an unarmed man. It has been fun, but I have more important people, er things, to do. I think I will call the FCC!!!
i apologize to all for this somewhat off-topic post, but i work in education and have a passion for teaching.
are we done?
no.
i have taught finance in mba programs. i was brought in when students got tired of professors with only book knowledge. you might take from that that i have a few advanced degrees. like richard gere in pretty woman, i went all the way.
it is not a badge of honor and accomplishment for an educational institution to be so 'responsive' to student desires for a 'real world' professor rather than professors with only 'book knowledge'. it is a big sign of low academic standards.
the standard for professors in graduate programs is to have extensive publications in peer-reviewed academic journals, books or book chapters, and presentations at professional meetings. the institutions that give preference to 'real world' professors over 'book knowledge' professors are online diploma mills such as university of phoenix.
these standards are developed by the accrediting bodies overseeing the content of degree programs. for mba degrees it is the aacsb. they use business employers as a guide to that content. employers are regularly surveyed as to what skills and knowledge level they need from their entry level employees with undergraduate or graduate degrees in business.
for the students to be determining the standards and qualifications of their faculty over those set by the aacsb is a severe case of the tail wagging the dog.
us universities are still the best in the world, but they are so precisely because of the high standards set by bodies like the aacsb. denigrating them will pull the us down in relation to the rest of the world.
p.s. i guess we are not going to get an answer to the market manipulation question. lol!
Well I've got a question for all you financial gurus since I don't know a hedge fund from a hedge hog. Am I making too big a gamble by planning a Brazil trip for New Years? Does anyone have an indicator as to what the exchange rate will be or should I get down there now while the going is good?
Poucolouco
10-08-08, 20:56
I just received an e-mail that the banks in Rio de Janeiro are on strike again today. Does anyone have information about this?
Wandering Fool
10-08-08, 22:14
Like Richard Gere in Pretty Woman, I went all the way.
...in your delusional mind, only.
On your merry way, Don Quixote
All according to XE.com:
Last night the exchange rate to the dollar was about R2.31.
Late this morning, about 3 hours ago, it was R2.17.
About 30 min ago it was R2.35866.
And Now:
18:39:22 UTC
1.00 USD = 2.27050 BRL
Talk about volatility! What a roller coaster ride!!
What was the rate one year ago?
What was the rate one year ago?
Monday, October 8, 2007
1 US Dollar = 1.80970 Brazilian Real
Off topic perhaps, but the Real hit 4.0 to the Pound Sterling yesterday, which was a nice sight for sore eyes, though it's dropped a bit again today.
Wandering Fool
10-09-08, 05:09
Brazil's Central Bank holds U.S. dollar auctions for market liquidity
www.chinaview.cn 2008-10-09 10:04:32 Print
RIO DE JANEIRO, Oct. 8 (Xinhua) -- Brazil's Central Bank Wednesday staged the first U.S. dollar auctions on the foreign exchange market since March 2003, selling 1.7 billion dollars altogether.
Three auctions took place in the morning, with decreasing exchange rates of 2.44, 2.37 and 2.35 Brazilian reais per U.S. dollar.
The operation was aimed at increasing market liquidity, helping exporters acquire the dollars they need for international transactions, and halting the devaluation of the Brazilian Real, which has lost 35 percent of its value since Aug. 1.
In order to increase market liquidity, the bank sold dollar swap contracts during the last few days. But the effects were not as significant as expected and demand for dollars remained intense, forcing the institution to resort to dollar auctions.
The strategy did help calm the market and bring down the exchange rate. After eight days of increases, the U.S. dollar exchange rate decreased by 2.38 percent Wednesday, closing at 2.25reais per dollar.
The dollars sold Wednesday came from Brazil's foreign exchange reserves, which total about 207 billion U.S. dollars.
Can somebody explain to me why the dollar rise when the US economy is in a crisis?
Is it because the US economy can't get any lower and are suppose to rise and the European economy is supposed to go down?
Looking For Eden
10-09-08, 07:46
Can somebody explain to me why the dollar rise when the US economy is in a crisis?
Is it because the US economy can't get any lower and are suppose to rise and the European economy is supposed to go down?
It's called a flight to quality. And it is a global financial crisis at this point not a US one anymore. Iceland going bankrupt, many world financial markets halting trading because their markets are in freefall, people buy dollars. When the US sneezes the world catches a cold. All this talk of decoupling and BRIC countries dominating growth (Brazil, Russia, India, China) you see in a true world wide crisis is total bs. The world buys dollars.
Jamaicanceo
10-09-08, 08:56
It's called a flight to quality. And it is a global financial crisis at this point not a US one anymore. Iceland going bankrupt, many world financial markets halting trading because their markets are in freefall, people buy dollars. When the US sneezes the world catches a cold. All this talk of decoupling and BRIC countries dominating growth (Brazil, Russia, India, China) you see in a true world wide crisis is total bs. The world buys dollars.This guy knows world economics of dollar crrency domination. The dollar is second to gold! All other world currencies are equal to bronze.
JohnnyBraz
10-09-08, 09:28
It's called a flight to quality. And it is a global financial crisis at this point not a US one anymore. Iceland going bankrupt, many world financial markets halting trading because their markets are in freefall, people buy dollars. When the US sneezes the world catches a cold. All this talk of decoupling and BRIC countries dominating growth (Brazil, Russia, India, China) you see in a true world wide crisis is total bs. The world buys dollars. the us econemy has suffered in the past few years, it goes to show how much the rest off the world reliase in the $us. It has been hard currency in many countries for the past 30 years or so. When people panic they stick to hard currency, which is more demand for us dollar. Which causes it to rise as more people choose it as there currency in hard times, raither than shares or anything. People put there money in us accounts at a lower rate, which causes a demand for us$ and naturally a rise in the us dollar. Brazil's econemy is not able to deal with the current world problems, expect 3 reals to the dollar by carnival.
the us econemy has suffered in the past few years, it goes to show how much the rest off the world reliase in the $us...
JB, thank you for a good explanation.
Good to read instead of the blah blah below "the dollars is an international icon" "The dollar is second to gold! All other world currencies are equal to bronze."
Brazil's econemy is not able to deal with the current world problems, expect 3 reals to the dollar by carnival.
Euro exchange rates vs. brasilian Real have also increased significantly.
Today 1,00 € = 3.20 BRL
This could effectively mean 3.5 to 4 reals to the € relatively soon. I've put back Brasil on my travel list. :)
I don't get it, the past few days when the US market goes up the dollar goes down against the Real and vice versa?
Jamaicanceo
10-09-08, 19:59
Can somebody explain to me why the dollar rise when the US economy is in a crisis?
Is it because the US economy can't get any lower and are suppose to rise and the European economy is supposed to go down?I repeat!
"The dollar is second to gold! All other world currencies are equal to bronze."
This should only be read by the Norwegians here.
Other will not second/understand this, as we do many things the opposite way than others. We are, after all, a different country :-)
Yesterday:
1 Brazilian Real = 2.80899 Norwegian Kroner
Today:
1 Brazilian Real = 2.63175 Norwegian Kroner !!!
3 months ago :
Wednesday, July 9, 2008
1 Brazilian Real = 3.18617 Norwegian Kroner !
Spinnerman
10-10-08, 00:04
One of my GDP girlfriends was very pleased that she did an overnighter last night and got the guy to pay $300 USD . She was in shock when I showed her that at todays exchange , her little busetta earned her 717 Reals !!
She's buying the beer tonight rsrsrs
Wandering Fool
10-10-08, 00:57
They should hand out flyers at the airport advising new arrivals of the going rates for GDP's so this silly overpaying doesn't happen.
With all the daily, even hourly, fluctuations, what are the Cambios and ATM's giving as an exchange rate?
I repeat!
"The dollar is second to gold! All other world currencies are equal to bronze."
The Economy Expert, attached, gave the same explanation as you did. :D
Jamaicanceo
10-10-08, 07:05
The Economy Expert, attached, gave the same explanation as you did.
Please, can you repeat one more time? :DGladly Rainman! And slowly this time, so you won't fail to comprehend.
"The - dollar - is - second - to - gold! All - other - world - currencies - are - equal - to - bronze." :-)
JohnnyBraz
10-10-08, 08:26
Brazil and LatAm Rush to the Rescue of Tumbling Markets and Currencies
Written by Newsroom
Friday, 10 October 2008
Countries in Latin America, including Brazil, moved quickly this week to face the global financial crisis and came out with a battery of measures pumping billions of US dollars to try and contain the threat of recession.
The region's largest economies, Brazil, Mexico, Argentina and Colombia, injected huge sums of money to protect their currencies, and further measures have been planned individually or in the framework of the G-20 scheduled to hold an emergency meeting in Washington on Saturday.
Brazil, the region's major economy suffered a violent plunge of markets and the currency in spite of the authorities' insistence and guarantees that the country was protected from the US credit problems.
On Wednesday the Brazilian Central Bank pumped US$ 7.7 billion into the local money market to alleviate credit restrictions and anticipated another 3 billion were ready for any other emergency. The bank also intervened three times to prop the rapidly deteriorating local currency real against the US dollar.
No figures were disclosed about the volume involved but Brazil has international reserves totaling US$ 207 billion and on Thursday stock markets and the currency initially reacted positively.
Mexico, the region's second economy and the most dependent on the US economy had US$ 2.5 billion on stand by to support the peso and announced an emergency plan of US$ 4.3 billion to promote the economy.
Investments are mainly in infrastructure and "they are not a financial bail out, but are rather focused to support the internal engines that prop the Mexican economy", said president Felipe Calderon on national television.
Calderón said Mexico was facing a serious drop in exports, investments, remittances and tourism income. Growth forecast for this year is down to 2% from 2.4% and to 1.8% for next year.
Meantime in Argentina the Central Bank rescued the peso from a strong depreciation by selling US$ 3.5 billion in the market. The US dollar is at a "reasonable and controlled" level vis-à-vis the peso said Interior Minister Florencio Randazzo.
Central bank international reserves dropped to US$ 47 billion and Argentine authorities said they were concerned with the 30% depreciation of the Brazilian real, since Brazil is Argentina's main trading partner.
Foreign Affairs minister Jorge Taiana said an emergency meeting of Mercosur had been convened to analyze the global crisis and "coordinate and define positions".
In Colombia president Alvaro Uribe announced more flexible rules for foreign capital coming into the country and proposed a fiscal amnesty for those Colombians who were intent in repatriating their monies.
"We need to ensure liquidity, finance sources and contribute to a stable and competitive interest rate", underlined Uribe.
However since all four countries are concerned about inflation none of the Central Banks joined the Federal reserve and the European central bank in the coordinated cut rate as happened on Wednesday.
But again on Thursday Latin American markets were dragged at last moment by Wall Street's pessimism which after a balancing act during most trading, plunged in the last half hour 679 points, 7.33% below the 9.000 points threshold to 8.579.
Brazil's Bovespa ended trading down 3.92% at 37.080 points in spite of having recovered in mid afternoon 5%. This is the sixth consecutive drop of Bovespa which has accumulated losses of 41% so far this year. The Central bank supported the Real with US$ 911 million.
Argentina's Merval was down 4.99% to 1.287,33 points after having gained 3.2%. In Chile both indexes slid: IPSA 1.61% and IGPA 1.12%. But the country's risk rating remains above 1.300 points of the EMBI index.
Finally Mexico stock exchange after an initial positive response dropped 1.78% to 20.310 points, the sixth fall running.
Jamaicanceo
10-10-08, 09:19
The Economy Expert, attached, gave the same explanation as you did. :DOh, you posted a picture of your favorite garota. She is lovely for you. Did you find her at 4x4?
With all the daily, even hourly, fluctuations, what are the Cambios and ATM's giving as an exchange rate?ATMs give the closing rate of the day before.
Cambios are much lower now. Given the wild fluctuations (the real went from 2.18 to 2.39 yesterday in less than 90 min), the cambios are staying low. I heard like 2.05 in recent days.
I'll confirm today what cambios are offering. It ain't what the ATMs are spitting out.
Crude oil dropped below $80 this morning!!!!
Brent crude oil was selling at $79.20 in opening trading. I hope the other crude oils also fall in price. Hopefully airfares will follow suit pretty soon.
Lower airfares and higher exchange rates make for very good mongering trips!
Looking For Eden
10-10-08, 13:20
With all the daily, even hourly, fluctuations, what are the Cambios and ATM's giving as an exchange rate?
As of now 2.28 but that could change when the US stock market opens in an hour or so. When the world markets stop plunging I would think the dollar would go back down some. Who knows what other insane dollar destroying ideas the government will come up with between now and then. Trading currently halted on Russia, Austria, Thai and Indonesian exchanges.
JB, thank you for a good explanation.
Good to read instead of the blah blah below "the dollars is an international icon" "The dollar is second to gold! All other world currencies are equal to bronze."
Hi Sperto, I just want to also comment the U.S dollar. The U.S dollar is too big to fail. Just like these big investment banks. Most trade is conducted in U.S dollars. Its also not because U.S dollar is king. & other currencies are peasants. Other currencies are a mere derivative of the dollar.
If the dollar fails than trade would halt, and no country wants that at the moment. I hope this explanation helps.
I repeat!
"The dollar is second to gold! All other world currencies are equal to bronze."
Hi Jamaican CEO you do have a point. Most countries have dollars as reserves as if it was gold. But that may change because foreign flows of capital peaked last year.
Hi Sperto, I just want to also comment the U.S dollar. The U.S dollar is too big to fail. Just like these big investment banks. Most trade is conducted in U.S dollars. Its also not because U.S dollar is king. & other currencies are peasants. Other currencies are a mere derivative of the dollar.
If the dollar fails than trade would halt, and no country wants that at the moment. I hope this explanation helps.
Thank you, senhor ML.
NSA Cruzer
10-10-08, 14:58
The Real has fallen 11.6% this week as banks and investors sell Brazilian investments and repatriate them back. The Central Bank sold USD for the first time in 5 years. Since August 1st, the Real has plummeted 33%.
NSA Cruzer
10-10-08, 15:11
Its great news for travellers that the price of crude has fallen; currently below US$79.50. Jet fuel is down 11.2% this week and 14.7% this month. Some international carriers, such as Qantas, Singapore, Emirates, have cut their fuel surcharges.
However, if OPEC decides it wants to stop the falling price of oil, it could at its next meeting curb production.
Don't rejoice just yet as OPEC could change this very quickly.
Finally, TAM Airlines will join the Star Alliance Group and will become a full member in 12 to 18 months
Crude oil dropped below $80 this morning!!!!
Brent crude oil was selling at $79.20 in opening trading. I hope the other crude oils also fall in price. Hopefully airfares will follow suit pretty soon.
Lower airfares and higher exchange rates make for very good mongering trips!
Exec Talent
10-10-08, 15:23
With all the daily, even hourly, fluctuations, what are the Cambios and ATM's giving as an exchange rate?
Yesterday at the ATM I got 2.22. The cambios were quoting around 2.10.
It is really hard for the cambios right now. For example, I used to get 5+ points over the ATM rate.
I have absolutely no predictions at this point. Market forces and even market manipulators have given away to government intervention. Who knows what they are going to do from day to day.
HoleRanger
10-10-08, 15:50
I've been in the good ole US working and now starting to track airfares for my next visit in a month or so. It's hard to figure out what will happen next. Anyway, I came across this site. Thought you guys might get a chuckle out of it. A twist on economics.
Enjoy!
http://www.thecapitol.net/Recommended/twocows.htm
I hope not for when the dollar was down they didn't lower them. What do you guys think.
Jamaicanceo
10-10-08, 16:49
Hi Jamaican CEO you do have a point. Most countries have dollars as reserves as if it was gold. But that may change because foreign flows of capital peaked last year.Thanks ML for assisting with your mature input. What we've posted is just the history of how the US dollar is the most stable and secure currency for the world. The is example by the US market's continuance of trading while other markets have opted to close for fear their economies will collapse into the stone age.
But I don't understand why Sperto takes others' posts so personal?
Alex Deuce
10-10-08, 17:06
I obviously got the situation pegged incorrectly. I did not see a global meltdown coming.
I was wrong as hell about my predictions but I made and saved a lot of money selling short. My Merrill Broker Hates me but fuck him and their Bank of America asses.I actually had a broker say to me "This is only a minor blip, the fundamentals of the market are strong." i am lilke, "is this ***** john mccain or some shit?" I sold off er thang! I have liquidity out the ying yang and im going to go get me some of that 1-2.10 real bunda. Hell I might not come back.
Has anyone had HSBC tell them that they will only allow less than 9,999 US international wire transfers on individual accounts? I am confused as hell. I have a brazillian account originated in Sao Paolo and im having living hell!
Exec Talent
10-10-08, 17:36
He (George Bush) also noted "rigorous enforcement" steps taken by the Securities and Exchange Commission to make sure that some investors don't "take advantage of the crisis to illegally manipulate the stock market."
George (the other one), guess I was wrong about those market manipulators. Seems Bush, or at least the people who tell him what to say, live in the real world too.
Alex - good move. I was joking the other day about putting my money under the mattress -- or was I?
Its great news for travellers that the price of crude has fallen; currently below US$79.50. Jet fuel is down 11.2% this week and 14.7% this month. Some international carriers, such as Qantas, Singapore, Emirates, have cut their fuel surcharges.
However, if OPEC decides it wants to stop the falling price of oil, it could at its next meeting curb production.
Don't rejoice just yet as OPEC could change this very quickly.
I believe that OPEC is meeting sometime this month to discuss the falling oil prices. While it is said that they want the per barrel price to be around $80-$85, the fact remains that with all the economy woes, demand has lessened. Lessening the production levels may backfire on them.
ryjer
Alex Deuce
10-10-08, 22:46
Alex - good move. I was joking the other day about putting my money under the mattress -- or was I?
Shit, I wasn't! I am waiting for 8300 and a couple I got my eyes on to go down just a little bit further. There are like 10 of the DOW that their CAP Value is less than the current market sell price of their physical assets and still are making >6% EBITDA.
Wandering Fool
10-11-08, 02:29
I hope not for when the dollar was down they didn't lower them. What do you guys think.
Four years ago when I was going, the hot ones in Help were starting the bidding at 300R with an exchange of 3 to 1.
My last trip, 1.5 years ago, they were starting the bidding at 300R with an exchange of 2.4 to 1.
From reports throughout this year they were starting the bidding at 300r with exhange rate from 1.5 to 1 on up.
My guess is that if the entire global economy collapsed and we went back to a barter system, they'd want 300 bananas -except for Carnival when they would want 400 bananas.
Jamaicanceo
10-11-08, 04:52
Oil, soy, copper all go bust in Latin America
By THERESA BRADLEY and MARCO SIBAJA, Associated Press Writers, Fri Oct 10, 5:18 PM ET
The booming prices for Venezuelan oil, Brazilian soy beans and Chilean copper that brought prosperity to Latin America are heading for a bust that threatens to erode the hard-won gains of its poor and newly emerging middle class.
The global financial meltdown is cooling demand for commodities, the engine that fueled more than a decade of growth and erased generations of suffocating international debt.
For Brazilian farmer Aldemire Rostirolla and millions of others who rode the boom, the new reality is sobering.
Rostirolla worked 18-hour days for a dozen-plus years to coax corn, sunflower and soy from his sprawling piece of savannah on the edge of the Amazon. Now he may have to let his fields lie fallow as prices plummet for his crops.
Worried they might not break even in their next harvest, the 54-year-old farmer and his neighbors aren't sure it's worth investing in tractors or fertilizer. Some may have to sell their land because they can no longer get the loans they need to finance planting and harvesting.
"The question everyone here is asking is: How much more will commodity prices fall?" Rostirolla asked.
Latin America's reliance on raw material exports has long kept its economies from diversifying, driving them to take on huge foreign debt and triggering some of the world's biggest defaults. But as prices soared in recent years, governments used that commodity cash to pay down debts and build up reserves.
This "war chest" of public savings could help the region combat the global credit crunch, possibly enabling a rebound by 2010, said Eduardo Levy-Yeyati, head of Latin America research at Barclay's Capital in New York.
"They're going to suffer the crisis, but they're going to suffer less" than they would have in the past, he said.
In the meantime, though, much damage could be done.
Prices for commodities including crops, metals, oil and other raw materials have dipped by a third from their July peak.
That kind of slump has an outsize impact on Latin America, where most economies still haven't diversified enough, and some rely on commodities exports for nearly half of government revenue and hundreds of millions of jobs.
"I predict a rather dark, unpleasant future in coming months," as exports, investment and lending decline simultaneously in an unprecedented triple-whammy, said Peter Hakim, president of the Inter-American Dialogue, a regional think tank in Washington D.C.
"Commodities alone could do a lot of damage, but when it comes in this combination, things could be much more explosive," he said.
Latin America's major stock indices have lost at least 20 percent of their value in the past two weeks as wary investors pull cash from emerging markets. Brazil's commodity-heavy benchmark Ibovespa index is leading losses, down 35 percent since Sept. 25.
Add to that the ways the financial crisis has dried up credit for farmers and mine operators, and analysts see no easy fix.
"We're in the eye of the storm, so it's difficult to determine whether this financial instability will be temporary or whether it will cause lasting harm," said Luis Moreno, president of the Inter-American Development Bank.
Investors worry that Argentina, one of the world's top grain exporters, may not be able to maintain a budget surplus and keep servicing its debt now that soy and wheat prices have sunk more than 40 percent from this year's record peak. Chile, the world's top copper producer, had its first trade deficit in eight years last month, after copper prices slid 45 percent since May.
The hardest-hit countries are likely to be oil-reliant Venezuela and Mexico, analysts say. Both draw more than 40 percent of their federal budgets from oil, which has dropped more than 45 percent to hover around $80 a barrel since hitting a record high of $147.27 on July 11.
Venezuelan officials insist they'll keep funding President Hugo Chavez's sweeping social programs, which have paid for everything from free eye surgeries for poor Latin Americans to cheap home heating oil in the U.S. Northeast.
And while Venezuelan Finance Minister Ali Rodriguez warned of "significant restrictions" in next year's budget, the only examples he gave were to slash parties, cars and cell phone use by government workers.
A commodities collapse "could put Chavez and all his massive expenditures in a very tight skirt," said David Fleischer, a political scientist at the University of Brasilia.
Meanwhile, in Mexico, America's third-largest oil supplier, falling crude prices have pushed the peso to record lows, prompting the Central Bank to auction $8.9 billion in reserves this week to stem the decline.
President Felipe Calderon unveiled $4.4 billion in emergency spending on roads, schools, hospitals and an oil refinery to create jobs and boost growth. But his treasury department still slashed its growth forecast for 2009 from 3 percent to 1.8 percent — one of the lowest in the region.
Poorer countries have fewer options.
In Bolivia, some hard-hit mining companies have pressed local officials to cut their water and electricity bills to make up for lost export income. Prices for zinc, Bolivia's top metal export, have tanked 70 percent from a 2006 high, forcing private mine operators to lay off workers.
In the Andean town of Potosi, clogged with Hummers brought in during boom times, struggling miners are now desperate to unload the luxury vehicles. But they can't find any buyers, said Limbert Paredes, manager of the Potosi Mineral Refiners Association.
"When the boom passes, you've partied away all the money you've earned over the last two years, and you're back in misery again," he said.
I believe that OPEC is meeting sometime this month to discuss the falling oil prices. While it is said that they want the per barrel price to be around $80-$85, the fact remains that with all the economy woes, demand has lessened. Lessening the production levels may backfire on them.
ryjer
I totally agree. Also you know that most of them will cheat and continue pumping at the same level.
Can somebody explain to me why the dollar rise when the US economy is in a crisis?
Is it because the US economy can't get any lower and are suppose to rise and the European economy is supposed to go down?
I'll give you one more explanation and let experts take it from there.
Let's say you had a portfolio of stocks, bonds commodities etc of 1 mil usd.
Your banker tells you that with your portfolio as guarantee I can give you 60% of it (600K) for you to invest in our bank's products with the current interest rate that used to be very low indeed, (plus their cut), that will give you a return of 8% so you can benefit from the difference.
Now that the markets meltdown your portfolio is not worth 1 mil usd but only lets say 700K. So your banker has no more sufficient guarantee and he asks you to provide more assets otherwise he wants his money back.
If no more assets are available to you all you have to do is sell your paper assets for cash usd in order to repay your loan. In other words demand for usd.
Think of it in a global scale and you have one more reason to your question.
My naive 2 dollar cents.
Thanks
Will the prices go up in the Therma and Help
I hope not for when the dollar was down they didn't lower them. What do you guys think.
In my opinion I think things can go like this: Several months ago when the dollar was getting 1.6 reais for example and a girl at Help would ask for 200 reais TLN then that would cost $125 dollars. These girls are aware of the exchange rate change in our favor. So what they might do again like they did several years ago is instead of asking for 200 reais they may ask for $100 dollars and go to a cambio and get 230 reais at todays rate.
Everybody wins here she thinks, you get a lower cost and she gets 30 reais more.
I have been reading and hear on business TV shows that they think this new found dollar strength won't last. That as soon as the 700 billion dollars of newly printed money goes through the system it will dilute and weaken the dollar. So I'm thinking if I'm going to be going to Rio in a couple of months and I can get 2.3 to the dollar now and in a couple of months it might fall back to 1.8, maybe I should buy now.
But I have a question to some of you guys, where can I buy several thousands of reais in the NY area and not get beat to much by fees? Anybody know?
I'll give you one more explanation and let experts take it from there.
σας ευχαριστούμε.
With all due respect to the American fellow mongers of the forum here is my opinion on the crisis.
For the last 50 years or so the USA dominated the world for two main reasons.
Their edge technology in many fields and the power it created and their secure financial system.
Their instruments were the sophisticated weapons, the Wall st and the dollar.
Thanks to a few people, in two weeks time, their financial system and Wall st proved to be a joke and collapsed taking down the whole world markets.
Thanks to the very few thieves again there is no more security in the Wall st.therefore no more trillion usd investments coming in the future. Full stop.
It is a matter of time for the dollar to collapse too.
With no more investments the technology will go down as well very shortly.
Let's face it. Thanks to a very greedy few the empire is going down.
I will not be surprised if a war breaks again in the middle east before the election day in order to create some diversion.
Thanks
σας ευχαριστούμε.
Παρακαλω.
Very well done Sperto!
...I will not be surprised if a war breaks again in the middle east before the election day in order to create some diversion...
El Greco,
Your comments are frightening but make a lot of sense.
I recently had lunch with the retired CEO of a major European bank, and he gave me his personal interpretation of the current inter-banking credit crunch. He told me that cash-rich banks are not lending money to the cash-poor banks, in order to make them fail and buy them for cheap. So a very wide reorganization of the banking sector is underway.
If he is right, then we just need to wait a little until the number of banks is seriously reduced, and buy at firesale prices the stock of the remaining banks. What do you think of this?
Regards.
BB.
El Greco,
Your comments are frightening but make a lot of sense.
I recently had lunch with the retired CEO of a major European bank, and he gave me his personal interpretation of the current inter-banking credit crunch. He told me that cash-rich banks are not lending money to the cash-poor banks, in order to make them fail and buy them for cheap. So a very wide reorganization of the banking sector is underway.
If he is right, then we just need to wait a little until the number of banks is seriously reduced, and buy at firesale prices the stock of the remaining banks. What do you think of this?
Regards.
BB.
Bimbo Boy
For the last few weeks every weekend a large financial institution is going down in USA.
Latest rumours are that although Morgan Stanley is facing great problems the USA government might choose to help City bank instead over the weekend. If that is the case then the crisis is worsening.
On the other hand some merger talks were announced between General Motors and Chrysler in order to calm down the public.
In other words we are getting even deeper into the shit.
According to your CEO friend is like we are running similar businesses and my shop is in fire. My extinguishers are used but the fire is still burning.
I am asking you then for your extinguishers but you chose not to give them to me because you think that it will be better for your business if I go out of the way. You forget one thing though. That our businesses are on the same building and that the shop next to mine is already burning too.
Unless G7 and European leaders meeting in Paris come with something big crisis can not be solved.
IMHO they should:
1 Guarantee deposits.
2 Guarantee interbank loans.
3 Lower interest rates drastically.
4 Pump more money into the system the way Gordon Brown does.
4 Decide to increase deficit further.
Otherwise we'll see the "Argentinian 2000 effect" spreading all over soon.
I am not an expert. I don't have a degree in economics. I only try to use my common sense the way I have done all my life.
HoleRanger
10-11-08, 21:35
Let us not forget the obvious re:the economy right now. Bush has already laid the groundwork to stay in office and suspend elections.. Last year he signed Presidential Directives NSDP51 and HSPD20 along with others.
(b) "Catastrophic Emergency" means any incident, regardless of location, that results in extraordinary levels of mass casualties, damage, or disruption severely affecting the U.S. population, infrastructure, environment, economy, or government functions;
While I like to see my $ go further in the US and globally,this whole financial disaster makes you go...hmmm!!
Enjoy!
JohnnyBraz
10-12-08, 09:08
In my opinion I think things can go like this: Several months ago when the dollar was getting 1.6 reais for example and a girl at Help would ask for 200 reais TLN then that would cost $125 dollars. These girls are aware of the exchange rate change in our favor. So what they might do again like they did several years ago is instead of asking for 200 reais they may ask for $100 dollars and go to a cambio and get 230 reais at todays rate.
Everybody wins here she thinks, you get a lower cost and she gets 30 reais more.
I have been reading and hear on business TV shows that they think this new found dollar strength won't last. That as soon as the 700 billion dollars of newly printed money goes through the system it will dilute and weaken the dollar. So I'm thinking if I'm going to be going to Rio in a couple of months and I can get 2.3 to the dollar now and in a couple of months it might fall back to 1.8, maybe I should buy now.
But I have a question to some of you guys, where can I buy several thousands of reais in the NY area and not get beat to much by fees? Anybody know?Well I personally think that iff the dollar falls, it will only fall against 1st world currency's. The real will drop. Brazil is not equiped to deal with global crisis's like the present one. You could always think about getting some one to wire transfer the money to you with western union, at a fixed rate, depending on what rate they would give you. Or buy money in pounds or euro's and cash it into reals in brazil. Today my country australia has just gaurenteed all money in australian banks any amount for the next 3 years, even though our dollar has crashed 30% or so. We are better equiped than most countries to wheather this crises out, I expect the aud to gain in the next 2 months, there will be a further drop, then a sharp rise.
JohnnyBraz
10-12-08, 10:59
Marketplace,
Psst. Secrets to creating wealthKochie's Tips Finance help is hereRates too high?
Beat the pain.
Australian government guarantees all bank deposits
Sunday October 12, 2008, 6:45 pm
Click to enlarge photo
SYDNEY (AFP) - The Australian government will guarantee all deposits in domestic banks as the financial crisis enters a dangerous new phase and threatens growth, Prime Minister Kevin Rudd said Sunday.
"We are talking about all deposits, let's be clear about that," Rudd told reporters in Canberra.
"For Australian banks, building societies, credit unions and also for the foreign subsidiaries of banks operating in Australia taking deposits."
Rudd, who has held two days of crisis talks with top officials on the financial turmoil sparked by the credit crunch, said the government would also guarantee all wholesale term funding by Australian banks operating in international markets.
The centre-left Labor prime minister said the move had been prompted by decisions by foreign governments to offer assurances to their financial institutions, leaving banks Down Under at a disadvantage.
"As prime minister of Australia I will not stand idly by while Australian banks are disadvantaged in international credit market places because of the actions taken by foreign governments," he said.
"I can announce today that anyone who lends money to our banks in the international marketplace has an absolute assurance that their money is safe."
Rudd said the government would inject a further 4 billion dollars (2.6 billion US) into residential-backed securities to support the domestic mortgage market. The government invested four billion dollars in the mortgage market in response to the global credit crunch in September.
The prime minister said the new measures were part of international steps to help "unclog the arteries of the global financial system" and were critical for the international and domestic economies.
"Australia is better positioned than practically every other country in the world to see its way through this crisis," he said.
"(But) this global financial crisis has entered a new and dangerous phase with real consequences for growth, for jobs and therefore for the future."
Rudd said while Australia's banking institutions were well-capitalised and profitable with high asset quality, the country's financial system was being hit by global events which could slow domestic economic activity.
In May, the government forecast growth of 2.75 percent in the 12 months to July 2009.
Rudd said the credit tightening could have massive consequences for the Australian economy, adding that it was likely that unemployment would climb above next year's projected 4.75 percent.
"Given the developments in global financial markets... as night follows day there is a roll-on impact in terms of the real economy and jobs, so unemployment is likely to be higher," he said.
"We are in the economic equivalent of a rolling national security crisis and the challenges are great."
He said while Australia was better placed than most countries to ride out the crisis, the three measures announced Sunday would reassure Australian depositors that their deposits were safe and that they could have full confidence in the Australian financial system.
"The measures that I've announced today are simply to make sure that the banks have proper access to global credit into the long term future and to make sure that our depositors have a guarantee from government given the uncertainty which they are seeing on their television screens each night."
"I think it's the right thing to do."
Let us not forget the obvious re:the economy right now. Bush has already laid the groundwork to stay in office and suspend elections.. Last year he signed Presidential Directives NSDP51 and HSPD20 along with others.
(b) "Catastrophic Emergency" means any incident, regardless of location, that results in extraordinary levels of mass casualties, damage, or disruption severely affecting the U.S. population, infrastructure, environment, economy, or government functions;
While I like to see my $ go further in the US and globally,this whole financial disaster makes you go...hmmm!!
Enjoy!
Is that the reason why he finished his last speach yesterday with "God bless you" ?
NSA Cruzer
10-12-08, 15:48
Already we are seeing countries guaranteeing full retail deposits; Australia will guarantee all retail deposits for any amount for 3yrs, New Zealand will do the same for 2yrs and the UAE 2yrs. Importantly, the UK, Australian and UAE governments will also guarantee interbank lending as well to try and jump-start the frozen credit market.
Portugal has also announced it will guarantee $20 billion Euro of retail deposits.
This weekend is all about the Eurozone leaders 'bulking-up' the five-point plan released by the G7. Expect more nationalisation of banks, further co-ordinate interest rate reductions following last weeks 50 basis point cut, and the guaranteeing of interbank lending for European banks.
Problem is that this is the ONLY plan and there is no Plan B. If this fails, things will get worse. Furthermore, with governments bailing out banks using taxpayers money, this is not good for the economy as inevitably we will see an increase in taxes and decreasing expenditure for services to pay for this mess. Also, consumers will curb spending crimping demand in the domestic economy leading to falling houseprices, falling retail sales, slower GDP and higher unemployment.
Citi is fine and there is no hint of Citi failing. Morgan Stanley, along with Goldman Sachs, have reclassified themselves as 'commercial banks' in order to qualify for the US govt US$700 billion bailout package.
GM could either merge or buy-out Chrysler from Cerberus as Chrysler dervives 90% of its revenue from North America. Hard to believe GM share price today is the same value as it was in the 1950s. There are also talks of Ford possibly offloading some of its 33.4% stake in Mazada to raise cash.
Troubling times for all of us...
Bimbo Boy
For the last few weeks every weekend a large financial institution is going down in USA.
Latest rumours are that although Morgan Stanley is facing great problems the USA government might choose to help City bank instead over the weekend. If that is the case then the crisis is worsening.
On the other hand some merger talks were announced between General Motors and Chrysler in order to calm down the public.
In other words we are getting even deeper into the shit.
According to your CEO friend is like we are running similar businesses and my shop is in fire. My extinguishers are used but the fire is still burning.
I am asking you then for your extinguishers but you chose not to give them to me because you think that it will be better for your business if I go out of the way. You forget one thing though. That our businesses are on the same building and that the shop next to mine is already burning too.
Unless G7 and European leaders meeting in Paris come with something big crisis can not be solved.
IMHO they should:
1 Guarantee deposits.
2 Guarantee interbank loans.
3 Lower interest rates drastically.
4 Pump more money into the system the way Gordon Brown does.
4 Decide to increase deficit further.
Otherwise we'll see the "Argentinian 2000 effect" spreading all over soon.
I am not an expert. I don't have a degree in economics. I only try to use my common sense the way I have done all my life.
GM could either merge or buy-out Chrysler from Cerberus as Chrysler dervives 90% of its revenue from North America. Hard to believe GM share price today is the same value as it was in the 1950s. There are also talks of Ford possibly offloading some of its 33.4% stake in Mazada to raise cash.
Troubling times for all of us...
The leaked proposal deals with Cerberus obtaining the remaining shares of GMAC in exchange for Chrysler. After first talking with Ford, and being told "no." They moved on to Chrysler. Since Chrysler is a private held company, they are not required to make public, financial records. In Aug. they said they had 11 billion in cash reserves. GM claims to have enough for the remainder of the year. It would be interesting to see what happens if this took place. I'll be following this one very closely..............
ryjer
Mr Enternational
10-12-08, 21:38
Just came from the Citibank ATM in Copa. They are charging R$8 to withdraw from their machine. Are they trying to make us pay for their lost Wachovia deal? Went to use my HSBC account instead.
Problem is that this is the ONLY plan and there is no Plan B. If this fails, things will get worse.
Troubling times for all of us...
They might not have a plan B but there is one.
They will eventually have to close the stock markets for them to calm down then after a few days some banks will close leaving people with little or no money. People on the streets, food prices rising.......... etc.
European leaders made a decision to guarantee interbank lending to unfreeze the markets and not let any bank to close so I hope all the above will not happen.
I keep my fingers crossed and wait for NIKKEI to open in an hour. Let's see how they are going to digest the Morgan Stanley/Mitsubishi deal possible failure. They will at least give us an indication of what to expect next.
I'm curious as to what others think about currency trading. Well, not exactly trading, but buying when rates are good for a later date. It's an investment for future mongering trips. I've setup an account with XE, but not to trade currencies, to get the best rates possible on a daily basis.
ryjer
I'm curious as to what others think about currency trading. Well, not exactly trading, but buying when rates are good for a later date. It's an investment for future mongering trips. I've setup an account with XE, but not to trade currencies, to get the best rates possible on a daily basis.
ryjerI think it is a good idea. Let's say you buy some Reals at say 2.3. If the dollar strengthens to 3.0 on your next trip you you can have a cheap vacation and take out even more money for the future. You have not made as much money as you could have but who cares? You are able to take out more. If the dollar tanks you are insulated for the next trip. If the dollar really tanks, sell the Reals and stay home.
I think it is a good idea. Let's say you buy some Reals at say 2.3. If the dollar strengthens to 3.0 on your next trip you you can have a cheap vacation and take out even more money for the future. You have not made as much money as you could have but who cares? You are able to take out more. If the dollar tanks you are insulated for the next trip. If the dollar really tanks, sell the Reals and stay home.
That's assuming you are doing it thru the banks - otherwise you take the risks associated with importing currency into Brasil illegally.
Jamaicanceo
10-13-08, 02:43
I'm curious as to what others think about currency trading. Well, not exactly trading, but buying when rates are good for a later date. It's an investment for future mongering trips. I've setup an account with XE, but not to trade currencies, to get the best rates possible on a daily basis.
ryjerI am Forex. I am still using the simulator.
That's assuming you are doing it thru the banks - otherwise you take the risks associated with importing currency into Brasil illegally.
The custom's form that we sign entering Brasil has a 10.000 Reais limit. We must report any amount in excess of that.
10.000 usd is for USA and 10.000 euros for Europe.
NIKKEI finally closed today, Sanghai, Hong Kong and Australia in the green. Might be the bottom of this turmoil. Let's wait for European markets. They have good reasons to go in the green too. Hope it will last.
Flying abroad is becoming costly for Brasilians so they will turn to their domestic destinations again for their vacations. More seats available in the airplanes and together with declining oil prices will drive ticket prices down.
He (George Bush) also noted "rigorous enforcement" steps taken by the Securities and Exchange Commission to make sure that some investors don't "take advantage of the crisis to illegally manipulate the stock market."
George (the other one), guess I was wrong about those market manipulators. Seems Bush, or at least the people who tell him what to say, live in the real world too.
Well, if you are going to use the words of a politician (at any time, but especially during an election year) as evidence to support your position on the stock market, then there is nothing more I can really say to you. Politicians are such excellent sources of unbiased information.
For everyone else, I came across this article in the Washington Post by Robert Samuelson. I am posting the most pertinent paragraph.
"Consider stocks. Their plunge has been driven in part by hedge fund selling. Hedge funds often buy stocks by borrowing from their "prime dealers" -- firms such as Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, which in turn borrow from commercial banks. If banks "deleverage" by reducing loans to prime dealers, then prime dealers tighten up on hedge funds, which react by selling stocks. "It's a big piece of why the stock market is down," says Michael Decker, former chief economist for the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association and now co-head of the Regional Bond Dealers Association."
So, a 'real world' person claims that the current stock decline is substantially due to hedge funds liquidating their long positions in order to raise the cash needed to repay debt. There is no mention of market manipulation.
Exec Talent
10-13-08, 15:07
Renaissance Says Rogue Trader Lost $10 Million Amid Market Rout
By William Mauldin and Maria Ermakova
Oct. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Renaissance Capital, the Russian investment bank part-owned by billionaire Mikhail Prokhorov, said an equities trader lost $10 million on unauthorized bets amid the country's biggest market rout in a decade.
The trader, Anton Stenin, built up about $130 million in unauthorized positions using borrowed money in a client's account, Renaissance equity sales chief Masha Shatalina said by phone today in Moscow, confirming a report in the Vedomosti newspaper. She declined to comment further.
The client, an industrial company, encouraged Stenin to violate risk rules starting in early September and then couldn't meet margin calls amid the biggest rout in Russian stocks in a decade, according to a senior trader who declined to be identified because he's not authorized to speak to the press. Stenin walked out of the office before his trades were discovered and hasn't been located since, the trader said.
Maybe we should put Tony Soprano in charge of the SEC. Bet there would be some quick changes.
Pussyhunter099
10-13-08, 15:18
What do you guts think about this article, I don't have an economics background so its over my head.
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/daily/wednesday.htm
Exec Talent
10-13-08, 21:38
DOW was up 936 today. Before the market opened I e-mail some investor friends (who occasionally make money on my recommendations) that the market was going to take off like a rocket today.
Why?
Simple, the market manipulators had driven it down forcing margin calls all around, it was time to buy and drive it back up again. Do not believe for one minute the BS the press feeds you. Oh, yeah, it was the rescue package. Hmm, didn't that happen about a week ago. Oh, yeah, they just got the details worked out. BS.
I live in the real world where reading the tea leaves that the market manipulators put out there is how you make money. It would be a wonderful world if markets actually operated honestly and fairly. It also would be nice if occasionally the manipulators got their due. Never going to happen. The best you can do, if you live in the real world, is play along.
DOW was up 936 today. Before the market opened I e-mail some investor friends (who occasionally make money on my recommendations) that the market was going to take off like a rocket today.
Why? (Well you didn't email me and I knew it last night because the Dow futures were up big time, not just that Asian markets were up and so was Europe)
Simple, the market manipulators had driven it down forcing margin calls all around, (What about fear?, what about all the people all over the world that were afraid they were going to lose their life savings because of a global financial meltdown? People were selling out of fear, panic out) it was time to buy and drive it back up again. Do not believe for one minute the BS the press feeds you. Oh, yeah, it was the rescue package. Hmm, didn't that happen about a week ago. Oh, yeah, they just got the details worked out. People got back in today because now they were afraid they were going to miss out on the money to be made, Panic IN BS.
I live in the real world where reading the tea leaves (tea leaves are the real world? Are you smoking them? ) that the market manipulators put out there is how you make money. It would be a wonderful world if markets actually operated honestly and fairly. It also would be nice if occasionally the manipulators got their due. Never going to happen. The best you can do, if you live in the real world, is play along.
Please put me on your email list?
Exec Talent
10-13-08, 22:59
People got back in today because now they were afraid they were going to miss out on the money to be made
Who exactly were those people? Who exactly had money to get back in? The guy who was forced to sell when he got the margin call. Yes, he is rolling in dough.
Since rudimentary concepts seem beyond your grasp, try watching this video over and over again until you can quote all the rules by heart.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S27yitK32ds
Who exactly were those people? Who exactly had money to get back in? The guy who was forced to sell when he got the margin call. Yes, he is rolling in dough.
Since rudimentary concepts seem beyond your grasp, try watching this video over and over again until you can quote all the rules by heart.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S27yitK32ds
OMG another angry Democrat, give me a break you PUTZ
NSA Cruzer
10-14-08, 00:46
FOREX (FX) trading is definitely not for everybody. There is a very high risk of failure - mostly from inexperienced traders who search for the "quick buck". To understand trading and to be successful, you need to research and perform a number of 'dry trades' through your trading system before actually performing your first trade. Many people make the mistake of trading from day one and learning on the go. This is the biggest mistake and I have seen many people who do this and then come back to me and ask how do I make up the losses.
FX traders for most people is leveraged; meaning that your initial $10k you deposit into a FX trading company represents a leveraged amount of $100k. Therefore, your gains/losses are magnified. Profits/losses are calculated by 'pips' (points) average of $100.
I recommend you read books or research the internet for a more detailed explanation on FX trading if you are serious about using the gains for "travel" purposes. I use some of my FX gains for my ISG exploits.
If you want to buy/sell your currency through the money changers - forget it. You might make a few dollars but its the commission over time that will bite into your profits. Then again, many years ago, that method was how I started getting interested in FX and it was good practice.
FX trading may not be for you, but I cannot determine as I don't know your financial situation and your risk profile amongst other things. However, research and see if its for you.
I'm curious as to what others think about currency trading. Well, not exactly trading, but buying when rates are good for a later date. It's an investment for future mongering trips. I've setup an account with XE, but not to trade currencies, to get the best rates possible on a daily basis.
ryjer
NSA Cruzer
10-14-08, 01:23
The reason why equity markets thundered into life today/yesterday across the world was that there was a global consensus that governments would guarantee people's deposits, guarantee interbank loans in order to get the credit markets unfrozen and governments making investments (nationalisation) of their banks.
The reason why it took a long time for these points to be agreed to is debatable; but each government has its own agenda and they don't want to be (and its respective banks) at a disadvantage to other countries and banks.
Who were the people buying? Cashed-up individuals, speculators, companies, private capital, funds...etc, who were not exposed significantly earlier to the market falls or took advantage of the falls. Yes, there are some stocks that are undervalued and while this is not the bottom, this is an ideal opportunity to buy some stocks and holding them long term.
Is this the silver bullet with governments throwing dollars, Euros, Pounds, Yen at the problem to revive the banking sector and lending? Initial reaction is cautiously optimistic with the net result of equity markets and the price of a barrel of oil rising hinting an economic upturn. But, it's still too early to predict the ramifications of this package of measures.
One thing is for certain; we will now have a very different banking sector as governments will have a greater say on lending practices and will be asked not to take greater risk with their capital. Interbank lending will pick-up but there will be no pushy-lending practices. Consumers will be more cautious in their spending habits and I don't think we will see a house prices soaring like we witnessed before fuelled by easy mortgages.
Finally, with some countries in recession (UK, Ireland, Denmark, Iceland..amongst more) people should realise that there is falling demand for goods and services - meaning lower prices - leading to firms cutting their prices, sales forecasts and profits - leading to decrease in demand - leading to higher unemployment. We are not going to witness equity prices increasing because of expected higher earnings.
Fortunately, we may not be in a prolonged downturn as interest rates are low and we expect further cuts in official interest rates from the world's central banks. Consequently, lower interest rates make it unattractive to hold cash, hence shares look tempting in comparison.
(I haven't even discussed other issues...)
But the biggest thing for stock markets is confidence.
...
Finally, with some countries in recession (UK, Ireland, Denmark, Iceland..amongst more) people should realise that there is falling demand for goods and services - meaning lower prices - leading to firms cutting their prices, sales forecasts and profits - leading to decrease in demand - leading to higher unemployment.
...
1° The world's economic and financial system has suffered a massive blow that will reverberate in yet unkown ways in the real economy. It is a very complex system where actors are inter-related in many surprizing ways. If one analyzes the 1929 crisis ... it was a slow downslide, with surprizing bad news coming every 3 months for a few years. One could expect the same here. My bet is that we are still far from the bottom.
2° It is interesting to compare the American and the European bailouts. America : taxpayers' money is used to buy worthless toxic assets, it's basically a no-strings-attached subsidy to the banks. Europe: banks are partially nationalized, and European taxpayers will recoup their money when banks are privatized again. The European bailout reunion organized by French President Sarkozy this past week-end was really an impressive show of collective decision making.
Regards. BB.
Jamaicanceo
10-14-08, 02:28
Mongers with economic degrees?
They're solving the world economic problems on ISG instead of chasing ass in Rio! That's why the termases are empty, because mongers have turned into nutty professors.
Poucolouco
10-14-08, 14:38
The Rio banks are still grieving.
ATMs are open.
NSA Cruzer
10-14-08, 16:57
1° The world's economic and financial system has suffered a massive blow that will reverberate in yet unkown ways in the real economy. It is a very complex system where actors are inter-related in many surprizing ways. If one analyzes the 1929 crisis ... it was a slow downslide, with surprizing bad news coming every 3 months for a few years. One could expect the same here. My bet is that we are still far from the bottom.
2° It is interesting to compare the American and the European bailouts. America : taxpayers' money is used to buy worthless toxic assets, it's basically a no-strings-attached subsidy to the banks. Europe: banks are partially nationalized, and European taxpayers will recoup their money when banks are privatized again. The European bailout reunion organized by French President Sarkozy this past week-end was really an impressive show of collective decision making.
Regards. BB.
Correct, people must realise that these various bailout packages from the US, UK and the European Union is not magic elixir. Nationalising the banks is only to stabilise the balance sheets and the fire-up interbank lending. Consumers will be more cautious in their spending habits and will not go on the excessive spending we have seen until very recently as now job security becomes important. Briefly putting it; decrease in consumer spending = decrease retail demand = decrease in company sales = decrease in company profits = decrease in production = increase in unemployment.
For sure interbank lending has started given the governments have guaranteed all lending. However, there are conditions attached and rightly so. We will not see such loose lending practices that we witnessed given governments have a big say now.
We will be witnessing poor economic data in the months ahead as the following countries are experiencing contracting economies (recession); Denmark, Estonia, Latvia, Ireland, New Zealand, and Singapore. Countries almost in recession; Sweden, Germany, Spain, UK, France, Italy, Finland, Netherlands, South Africa, United States and Japan.
Iceland - deep recession, if not a depression (no new entries on the Iceland forum, coincidently, since August!)
The European and US bailouts are similar, but its interesting to see how the US government just threw money at the problem, while the Europeans stopped - thought about it - and drew up a proper plan. Then, the Americans come and copy it sighting 'uniformity across global governments and economies'.
We will be witnessing further turbulence in the coming months. People who bought equities on Monday (including me) have made money and after two days of big gains, I'm selling a portion of them because people will be selling today to make quick profits and the market will run out of puff - look at US markets right now. Its down. European markets are coming off their intra-day highs as well. It will be long term and we won't be seeing the dramatic share price gains we saw in the past.
NSA Cruzer
10-14-08, 17:08
I should mention that the Real has recorded its second-day of gains against the USD on the back of the US decision to purchase $250 billion of bank shares. The real also rose on the news that the Central Bank sold USD at 2.09 reais. In the last two days, the Real has risen 10.7%. The real may increase further in the next few days, but the question remains will it stay high as question marks on economic growth across Latin America.
Stocks have also risen dramatically, registering its biggest gains this decade. However, like the Real, stocks will continue to bounce until they stall when economic data for the country is released.
It's probably difficult sometimes to make meaningful forum soundbites on the issues, but there's a pretty good Economist report just now,'A special report on the world economy' (http://www.economist.com/printedition/), which helps to make sense of it all and may be of interest to the serious.
One thing is for certain; we will now have a very different banking sector
Everybody realised now that banking is very serious to leave it to bankers alone.
NSA Cruzer
10-16-08, 00:23
I think that is like allowing Dracula to have full access to the Blood Bank! With governments buying up equity stakes in their countries banks, bankers now will have to comply with government wishes. This may entail responsible lending, microeconomic focused lending to small business instead of big, extravagant projects that doesn't necessary stimulate the local economy and new conditions on executive pay and bonuses. The days of those huge golden handshakes and parachutes are over.
Everybody realised now that banking is very serious to leave it to bankers alone.
Explanation of the Real's decline against the dollar
http://www.economist.com/world/americas/displaystory.cfm?story_id=12432297
Exec Talent
10-20-08, 18:44
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=awNTCeBbW6wI&refer=home
With all the people getting laid off from Wall Street, maybe institutions of higher learning will start hiring professors who have actually spent a day or two in the real world.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=awNTCeBbW6wI&refer=home
With all the people getting laid off from Wall Street, maybe institutions of higher learning will start hiring professors who have actually spent a day or two in the real world.
I read the same article this morning. For those who didn't, I am pasting 2 very relevant sections.
The first:
"The final minute of stock trading is the busiest at U.S. exchanges after the open. The NYSE and Nasdaq Stock Market hold special auctions that intensify 20 minutes before the 4 p.m. close to collect orders and smooth out price changes. Nasdaq tells brokers as frequently as every 5 seconds whether there are more buyers than sellers and broadcasts a likely range for the closing price. At the NYSE, traders known as specialists manage the process.
Brokers are barred from canceling orders as the auction approaches. Still, traders could send small buy orders leading up to the close to prop up the price, only to place a larger sell order in the final trade.
``If you push the price up by buying 100 shares to sell 10,000, the people who get hurt are the ones who buy at an inflated price,'' said John Coffee, a securities law professor at Columbia University in New York."
This section partly decribes the technique some traders used to pump up the price of individual stocks so they could earn high returns. I asked Exec Talent to describe how stock manipulation occurs. He declined to repond to that question. Fortunately, the above reporter has.
The NYSE has certain rules for trading. Apparently, (and this is new to me) these rules are suspended towards the end of the trading day and special auctions of stocks are held. The goal is to reduce price volatility caused by last minute trades. The above section explains how some traders gamed that system to drive up the price and make trading gains by selling shares at the inflated price.
Still, the whole world is watching the same price movements. Other traders could jump in first and sell shares driving the price back down. It is called arbitrage and MANY computers are set up to look for just such pricing anomalies and to trigger buy or sell orders to exploit the price movement.
Now for the second section:
"Manipulating prices for anything but small companies that trade infrequently would be too costly and difficult, said Richard Parker, director of institutional trading at New York- based Stanford Group Co.
"It would be a big task to move names that are very liquid, and it would leave fingerprints,'' he said. "You could be better off banging your head against the wall.'' (my emphasis) "
Stock price manipulation, far from being rampant as Exec Talent wold have everyone believe, is as Mr. Parker describes: something that is VERY difficult to do for large companies with lots of widely traded shares. The reason is very logical and straightforward. Say a firm has 1 billion shares outstanding and typically trades 100 million shared a day. If you are an institutional investor that may trade 50,000 or even 100,000 share of one firm in one day, then your trades are small compared to the total shares of that firm traded daily. That institution cannot significantly influence the market share price, hence that individual institution cannot manipulate the market for the stock of that firm. Even if several institutions wanted to collude to manipulate the stock price of that particular firm, they would have to be involved with most of the trades. That means they would have to on one side or the other of over 40 million shares traded. That is VERY difficult to coordinate.
Manipulating stock prices on the NYSE is almost impossible. You are most likely to find it in the Over-the-Counter markets with penny stocks. We can be almost certain that the stocks of Microsoft, Intel, Bank of America, Bechtel, 3M, Procter and Gamble, Sony, BASF, etc. are NOT being manipulated.
Lucky Strike
10-20-08, 23:47
Manipulating stock prices on the NYSE is almost impossible.
If you don't consider frontrunning a "manipulation!" Oh, sorry, they call it "prop trading", right? The "business" that brings the biggest chunk of (especially) GS and other firms' profits? Strangely neither SEC not Bloomberg will ever investigate it.
You don't have to "manipulate" stock price to manipulate the market, all you need is to see the order flow before it hits the exchange... and slip your trade in-between! Just can't lose!
If you don't consider frontrunning a "manipulation!" Oh, sorry, they call it "prop trading", right? The "business" that brings the biggest chunk of (especially) GS and other firms' profits? Strangely neither SEC not Bloomberg will ever investigate it.
You don't have to "manipulate" stock price to manipulate the market, all you need is to see the order flow before it hits the exchange... and slip your trade in-between! Just can't lose!
You are correct that the specialists and market makers who work in the NYSE can make trades on their own account with privileged information. The specialists keep the limit order book and can buy or sell stocks for a profit by choosing which orders to participate in. But isn't that part of their job? They are obliged to buy or sell at a loss when there are too many sell orders or too many buy orders. The gains cancel out the losses and compensate them for the risk they absorb. I have never thought of that as market manipulation.
Lucky Strike
10-21-08, 02:16
You are correct that the specialists and market makers who work in the NYSE can make trades on their own account with privileged information. The specialists keep the limit order book and can buy or sell stocks for a profit by choosing which orders to participate in. But isn't that part of their job? They are obliged to buy or sell at a loss when there are too many sell orders or too many buy orders. The gains cancel out the losses and compensate them for the risk they absorb. I have never thought of that as market manipulation.
George90, I didn't mean specialists. I'm talking about the following: let's say a mutual fund calls GS or MS or MER etc. to sell 500K shares. How difficult is it for a prop desk to short 25 or even 50K shares before the big trade takes place? or even at the same time, which is totally legal? not difficult at all. and you CANNOT lose money on this trade. information, especially timely, is what makes all the difference - i.e. puts every independent trader at a huge disadvantage.
sure, sounds like conspiracy theory? i've done my research, i've followed the markets for a decade+. i've made up my opinion.
Exec Talent
10-21-08, 03:13
George90, I didn't mean specialists. I'm talking about the following: let's say a mutual fund calls GS or MS or MER etc. to sell 500K shares. How difficult is it for a prop desk to short 25 or even 50K shares before the big trade takes place? or even at the same time, which is totally legal? not difficult at all. and you CANNOT lose money on this trade. information, especially timely, is what makes all the difference - i.e. puts every independent trader at a huge disadvantage.
sure, sounds like conspiracy theory? i've done my research, i've followed the markets for a decade+. i've made up my opinion.
Thank you, thank you, thank you. End of story. Academics always like to drag things on forever.
Exec Talent
10-22-08, 14:58
Usd:brl - 2.36
Eur:brl - 3.01
Usd:eur - 1.28
Has anyone found a way to hedge currency movement easily?
I want to lock in some money at 2.35 for a trip in about 6 weeks but none of my brokers trade in BRL. It's only a small amount and I'd to pyramid into hedging more if it moves in my favor over the next few weeks.
George90, I didn't mean specialists. I'm talking about the following: let's say a mutual fund calls GS or MS or MER etc. to sell 500K shares. How difficult is it for a prop desk to short 25 or even 50K shares before the big trade takes place? or even at the same time, which is totally legal? not difficult at all. and you CANNOT lose money on this trade. information, especially timely, is what makes all the difference - i.e. puts every independent trader at a huge disadvantage.
sure, sounds like conspiracy theory? i've done my research, i've followed the markets for a decade+. i've made up my opinion.
Then I stand corrected!
The academics, and some professionals, have told me that large investors avoid large trades of the magnitude you used in your example precisely for the reason you highlighted in your example.
If the sale of 500K shares is not made with only one other investor, it will be spread over several investors each buying, say, 50K shares. After the first sales of 50K each, yes, short sellers can enter and drive the market price lower. This results in the large investor getting less money from the sale than was originally anticipated. The same thing when buying. The price can be driven up resulting a larger expenditure than originally anticipated.
These large orders can be executed piecemeal so that the real size of the order is disguised. The reduces the opportunty for gaming the market in the manner you described, and preserves return for the investor. Or the large investors can by-pass the NYSE altogether by making a private trade with another large investor. That is referred to as the 'fourth market' which I discussed in a prior post.
But you guys from the real world know better. If large institutional investors, who regularly make large orders and are presumably very sophisticated, are unable to prevent an individual order from unduely affecting the market price which can cost them substantial return, then cleverly placed brokers can indeed game the market at the expense of those large investors. The academics and professionals who research and study how to improve the internal efficiency of the market (The phenomenon you described is referred to as internal inefficiency.) don't know very much.
Has anyone found a way to hedge currency movement easily?
I want to lock in some money at 2.35 for a trip in about 6 weeks but none of my brokers trade in BRL. It's only a small amount and I'd to pyramid into hedging more if it moves in my favor over the next few weeks.
Currency hedges are not particularly complicated, but they do carry costs in the form of broker and other transaction fees. Hedging a small amount of currency will rarely gain you enough savings to cover the costs of the transaction.
If you want to lock in 2.35, and do not expect the rate to rise further in 6 weeks, then just buy your reais now.
Currency hedges are not particularly complicated, but they do carry costs in the form of broker and other transaction fees. Hedging a small amount of currency will rarely gain you enough savings to cover the costs of the transaction.
If you want to lock in 2.35, and do not expect the rate to rise further in 6 weeks, then just buy your reais now.How? Every agency I have seen selling Reais in the US wants a 10% commission.
How? Every agency I have seen selling Reais in the US wants a 10% commission.That's my problem too. I can go with transactions that settle in USD and not take delivery of actual BRL, but it seems like none of the fx brokers deal in BRL. I checked out Travelex and other exchange houses and their spreads are 2.05/2.65 here in NYC. Doesn't make sense to hedge in that case.
I even thought maybe hedging against one of the majors would work as a proxy but I can't find one currency that's similar to BRL. It looks like I'll just have to let it ride and see what happens. I originally plan on hedging less than 10k anyway.
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2008/10/17/17194/andrew-lahde-bows-out-in-style/
What is the rate as of today in Brazil?
Here in Europe the official rate is: 1 Euro = 3.05 Reais but the best quote I got was 2.78.
thanks
Hi guys
I suggest go to
Br. Invertia.com
Yoy can find invertia.com. Br and after choose "cambio"
You see change dollar. Real (see at "real. Dolar comercial")
And down below
"euro"
Actually (14. 25 europe. Italy) 1 $ = 2. 524 r$ 1 € = 1. 2802 $
So. You have to do. 1 € = 2. 524*1. 2802 = 3. 2131 r$.
Last August was about 1 € = 2. 40 r$
Actualized in half hour.
I hope that remains the same, or better. And going brasil became more funny.
Hope yhis helps
Forty
What is the rate as of today in Brazil?
Here in Europe the official rate is: 1 Euro = 3.05 Reais but the best quote I got was 2.78.
thanksEDITOR's NOTE: This report was orginally written in ALL CAPITAL LETTERING and thus it was edited it to normal case lettering. In the future, please do not write reports in ALL CAPITAL LETTERING. Thanks!
======================================
Hi Forty,
I sincerely appreciate your contributions to the forum, but...
Would you please refrain from WRITING IN ALL CAPITAL LETTERS!
It's difficult to read and it's time consuming to fix.
On behalf of myself and your fellow Forum Members: Thank You!
Jackson
Exec Talent
10-23-08, 18:36
I can deal with market manipulators (they are somewhat predictable and fairly easy to read) but with governments now intervening at the drop of a hat (or currency) it is impossible to predict which one will do what next. I like cash and dollars.
Brazil to Sell $50 Billion of Currency Swaps to Quell Real Rout
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=at7H5iWiWHQQ&refer=home
Does anyone know of any good currency exchanges in Miami outside of the airport that you won't get too ripped off from with commission rates?
Rodeo
Exec Talent
10-27-08, 19:35
The HSBC ATM rate today was 2.32.
The HSBC ATM rate today was 2.32.I avoid hsbc usually they don't tell you the exchange rate and they charged me 2% transaction fee even though I have a hsbc atm card. What a difference a day makes, today 2.16
Poucolouco
10-29-08, 21:00
I avoid hsbc usually they don't tell you the exchange rate and they charged me 2% transaction fee even though I have a hsbc atm card. What a difference a day makes, today 2.16
HSBC is inconsistent. When I withdraw from a non-HSBC bank at the HSBC ATM the receipt shows the exchange rate as R$, plus the withdrawal amount in both U$ and R$. However, when I withdraw from an HSBC account, using my HSBC Bankcard it only shows the amount of the withdrawal in Reais. I have to review my account on-line to get the exchange rate.
HSBC is inconsistent. When I withdraw from a non-HSBC bank at the HSBC ATM the receipt shows the exchange rate as R$, plus the withdrawal amount in both U$ and R$. However, when I withdraw from an HSBC account, using my HSBC Bankcard it only shows the amount of the withdrawal in Reais. I have to review my account on-line to get the exchange rate.
They don't show any charges as such because they advertise that they don't charge any. But after doing the maths I found out that their rates were 3% lower.
My good old Greek banks although they charge me 4-5 euros per transaction and 1% on top they still give me a better rate than the one I get from my HSBC account. Eg overall 8 euros iso 12 with HSBC for every 1.000 Reais.
Now since I am making about 50-60 transactions per year times 4 euros equals to about 250-300 euros per year. That's a about 7-8 bundas less.
Forget them. HSBC I mean. Not the bundas of course.
Meu dois bunda/centavitos
Ascunion77
10-30-08, 21:00
I want buy some Reals to hedge my next trip so I called some FX places which give good rates within 10 cents of spot and all of them say they are not dealing with BRL because it's volatile right now.
How can I purchase some reals at a rate within 10 Cents of spot without being in Brazil?
Nov. 6 (Bloomberg) -- Brazil's real weakened on concern global economic growth will slow, curbing demand for the nation's commodity exports and local financial assets.
The real fell 0.2 percent to 2.1342 per U.S. dollar at 8:23 a.m. New York time, from 2.1295 yesterday. Brazil's currency fell 12 percent in October, its third consecutive monthly loss. It has lost 27 percent from a nine-year high of 1.5545 per dollar reached on Aug. 1.
``We know the economic slump will get worse and will hurt inflows to Brazil, and these central bank moves are a reminder of how serious the situation is,'' said Reginaldo Galhardo, currency trading manager at Treviso Corretora de Cambio in Sao Paulo.
The Bank of England unexpectedly cut its benchmark interest rate by 1.5 percentage points to 3 percent today to the lowest since 1955 in a bid to contain fallout from the worst banking crisis in almost a century.
The European Central Bank lowered interest rates for the second time in less than a month to counter the worst economic slump in 15 years in the euro zone. ECB policy makers reduced the rate by half a percentage point to 3.25 percent, in line with economists' estimates.
Stock declines around the world also kept investors away from real-denominated assets. European and Asian stocks fell and U.S. equity-index futures dropped as disappointing results from Toyota Motor Corp., Cisco Systems Inc. and Adidas AG added to speculation the economic slowdown will hurt corporate profits.
The yield on Brazil's zero-coupon bond due in January 2010 fell 4 basis points, or 0.04 percentage point, to 15.42 percent, according to Banco Votorantim. The yield on Brazil's overnight futures contract for January 2009 delivery rose 2 basis points to 13.75 percent.
Nov. 6 (Bloomberg) -- Brazil's real weakened on concern global economic growth will slow, curbing demand for the nation's commodity exports and local financial assets.
The real fell 0.2 percent to 2.1342 per U.S. dollar at 8:23 a.m. New York time, from 2.1295 yesterday. Brazil's currency fell 12 percent in October, its third consecutive monthly loss. It has lost 27 percent from a nine-year high of 1.5545 per dollar reached on Aug. 1.
``We know the economic slump will get worse and will hurt inflows to Brazil, and these central bank moves are a reminder of how serious the situation is,'' said Reginaldo Galhardo, currency trading manager at Treviso Corretora de Cambio in Sao Paulo.
The Bank of England unexpectedly cut its benchmark interest rate by 1.5 percentage points to 3 percent today to the lowest since 1955 in a bid to contain fallout from the worst banking crisis in almost a century.
The European Central Bank lowered interest rates for the second time in less than a month to counter the worst economic slump in 15 years in the euro zone. ECB policy makers reduced the rate by half a percentage point to 3.25 percent, in line with economists' estimates.
Stock declines around the world also kept investors away from real-denominated assets. European and Asian stocks fell and U.S. equity-index futures dropped as disappointing results from Toyota Motor Corp., Cisco Systems Inc. and Adidas AG added to speculation the economic slowdown will hurt corporate profits.
The yield on Brazil's zero-coupon bond due in January 2010 fell 4 basis points, or 0.04 percentage point, to 15.42 percent, according to Banco Votorantim. The yield on Brazil's overnight futures contract for January 2009 delivery rose 2 basis points to 13.75 percent.
Very interesting. What is you conclusion? Will the price on bunda rise or fall?
Very interesting. What is you conclusion? Will the price on bunda rise or fall?
The bunda will rise or fall depending how it is positioned on the market. Overweight punters will tend to lie back as it bounces around in the air above them. Others, that grab the bunda firmly with both hands and pound it, can keep it reasonably steady or use sideways movement to only exhaust their funds temporarily. Those that worry unduly about the movement of the bunda are probably insufficiently acquainted with the joys of Brasilian samba, which demonstrates that the bunda is capable of moving faster than the eye or ISG can see. Trying to enter a bunda market while it is fluctuating fiercely can cause some nasty bumps. It is quite safe to let the bunda rise and fall quite dramatically however, as long as the rise and fall does not exceed the length of one's rigging.
I know I should take this more seriously. The price of some bunda at VM is, after all, just slightly more than the price of a pint of beer in Paris at the moment. If it doubled, which seems unlikely, that would be the price of two pints of beer . . .
I know I should take this more seriously. The price of some bunda at VM is, after all, just slightly more than the price of a pint of beer in Paris at the moment. If it doubled, which seems unlikely, that would be the price of two pints of beer . . .
You must have a Masters degree in Bunda.
Funny, back home I often do the same comparison, beer and bunda. I order a pint of beer in a bar and can't help thinking that I could get laid in Rio for the same cost.
Poucolouco
11-07-08, 16:25
06/11/2008 HSBC ATM at 17:07 1.00 US = R$2.12
06/11/2008 XE Rate at 21:07 1.00 US = R$2.21
07/11/2008 XE Rate at 15:21 1.00 US = R$2.16
If you are coming from the UK to Rio you will probably be better off changing your pounds to dollars or euros in the UK then changing them to Real here.
I enquired about the rate in a couple of places and was offered R$3.0 to the pound, money taken straight out of the HSBC with a nationwide card gave a rate of R$3.48.
I always like to travel with a bit of reserve cash for those days when none of the atm's are working, usually a saturday. It's not that long since Argentina shut the banks when there was a run on their currency, nothing worse than having all that pussy and nothing to buy it with.
JohnnyBraz
11-08-08, 06:14
I was in a shopping mall and a big money exchange company (travelex) had a sign out the front saying that the are no longer trading in brazilian reals or argentinian pesos. I went inside and spoke to the person who worked there and he said that it is only temporary, as they are both too volitile at the moment. And are changing up to 15% in one day.
If you are coming from the UK to Rio you will probably be better off changing your pounds to dollars or euros in the UK then changing them to Real here.
I enquired about the rate in a couple of places and was offered R$3.0 to the pound, money taken straight out of the HSBC with a nationwide card gave a rate of R$3.48.
It's a nice thought, but it hardly works like that as far as I can see. You get a good rate for the Real using Euros but you pay for it getting the Euros. A comparatively strong Euro means the Pound is currently worth little more than 1Euro. Unless you happen to already have an account in a strong currency, or are paid in a strong currency, it costs you the going rate of your own shekel. ATMs mostly give a going rate, which has been sliding daily but hovering at around 3.4. It might even slide up again Mr Brown is half as clever as he thinks he is (I am not holding my breath, please note).
But as I said, at VM prices it's splitting hairs (I'll have nice soft, sparse blonde ones to split, if you please . . .;) )
Alex Deuce
11-08-08, 20:08
Am I the only one on this board that continues to use AMEX. Travel Cards? I have generally get a decent rate. IE.. today 1-2.10.
I don't talk about market expectations any more as I my predictions have been incredibly wrong but my Bearish Attitude toward the Market has left me Cash Strong .
Am I the only one on this board that continues to use AMEX.
Amex, is that a mosquito repellent?
It's a nice thought, but it hardly works like that as far as I can see.
I don't know why, but I always get a better rate if I change pounds to dollars or euros then into Reais. I am not stating an opinion here it has just worked out that way for me. I usually either get dollars at M&S, commission free, or take euros out of the atm in Paris or Schipol. Either way it always gives a better rate and less hassle than changing pounds in Rio. I don't know why, I know it defies logic but it happens.
But as you said........
[/QUOTE]at VM prices it's splitting hairs (I'll have nice soft, sparse blonde ones to split, if you please . . .;) )[/QUOTE]
Poucolouco
11-08-08, 22:26
Am I the only one on this board that continues to use AMEX. Travel Cards? I have generally get a decent rate. IE.. today 1-2.10.
I don't talk about market expectations any more as I my predictions have been incredibly wrong but my Bearish Attitude toward the Market has left me Cash Strong .
You seem to be the only one anywhere that is using the American Express Travel card. It was discontinued for the rest of us on October 7, 2007.
http://www10.americanexpress.com/sif/cda/page/0,1641,18622,00.asp
Exec Talent
11-09-08, 00:11
Am I the only one on this board that continues to use AMEX. Travel Cards? I have generally get a decent rate. IE.. today 1-2.10.
I don't talk about market expectations any more as I my predictions have been incredibly wrong but my Bearish Attitude toward the Market has left me Cash Strong .
Alex -- I have been incredibly right but as of now, I am with you. The cash stays in my pocket (with the Democrats in the white house and controlling congress, we will see how long that lasts) until I can get a better read on what is going on. Last night I was out with an economist and he was able to offer very little insight. Way too many variables.
Am I the only one on this board that continues to use AMEX. Travel Cards? I have generally get a decent rate. IE.. today 1-2.10.
I don't talk about market expectations any more as I my predictions have been incredibly wrong but my Bearish Attitude toward the Market has left me Cash Strong .
Where are you getting AMEX travel cards from??
Alex Deuce
11-09-08, 05:14
Where are you getting AMEX travel cards from??
I meant American Express period! I use my Amex for everything. At the end of my trips, I always look back at my exchange rates, well not great, are good and I still can get Reals at any bank if I can't find an HSBC. I just don't hear of anyone using Amex. The only issue I have ever had is that I always have several extraneous charges that I did not authorize. Especially from the two times i charged drinks at Help. However, I have never had to pay them.I still have my voided Amex Travel Cards from August that they Credited to my Amex Bill instead of sending me a check.
It might even slide up again Mr Brown is half as clever as he thinks he is If he was a tenth as clever as he thinks he , we wouldn't be the worst placed of the major economies for a recovery.
For those interested in such things, here's the Economist newspaper's interesting analysis
http://www.economist.com/world/americas/displaystory.cfm?story_id=12562273
I meant American Express period! I use my Amex for everything. At the end of my trips, I always look back at my exchange rates, well not great, are good and I still can get Reals at any bank if I can't find an HSBC. I just don't hear of anyone using Amex. The only issue I have ever had is that I always have several extraneous charges that I did not authorize. Especially from the two times i charged drinks at Help. However, I have never had to pay them.I still have my voided Amex Travel Cards from August that they Credited to my Amex Bill instead of sending me a check.OK. I use it as well, but not in bars.
AMEX charges 2% on the foriegn currency rates.
Membership has it's privileges:)
Poucolouco
11-10-08, 17:05
HSBC ATM at 2008.11.10 11:06.....$1.00 US = 2.16052 BRL
XE rates at 2008.11.10 10:28:42 UTC..... 1.00 USD = 2.15690 BRL
HSBC is sometimes more favorable than XE, and sometimes less. Time zone doesn't account for this because XE rates dropped after that.
Cambio on xavier de silveira selling reais at 2.08. Real trading 2.12-2.13 on the exchange mid day.
Alex Deuce
11-11-08, 02:08
OK. I use it as well, but not in bars.
AMEX charges 2% on the foriegn currency rates.
Membership has it's privileges:)
Wait, I never see nor care about the 2%. I am looking at my bills from August of last year as we speak and my Amex was 1-2.09 with the 2% compared to HSBC and XE- at 1-2.13. At those rates, i do not see the use to haggle at all. Get the money for the Bunda and keep rolling. Just my way of looking at it. Its like Poucolouco numbers below, you round them up to the real currency in cents and they are basically the same usable amounts. The calculation on my expenditures for that time period was a difference of 30 bucks for my cash withdrawls. I drink that in an hour in the US.
Next question for those who dare to; Anyone ever rented a car in Rio? My company rented me one in Sao P, but I have never done so personally! I remember having to do something with my Visa/Passport. I do not recall what I needed to do. I do recall that an american Drivers license is not sufficient.
Poucolouco
11-11-08, 02:36
next question for those who dare to; anyone ever rented a car in rio? my company rented me one in sao p, but i have never done so personally! i remember having to do something with my visa/passport. i do not recall what i needed to do. i do recall that an american drivers license is not sufficient.
i have always used localizar on ave princess isabel. there is also a hertz loja as well as a couple of others in the same area. there are agents at gig as well but i have never used them. you will need an inter-american driving permit available from aaa for $25. be sure to get the inter-american and not the international permit. the inter-american permit is printed in portuguese and spanish. the police insist on this and have been known to extort or confirep001e rental cars from uninformed gringos.
Alex Deuce
11-11-08, 05:33
i have always used localizar on ave princess isabel. there is also a hertz loja as well as a couple of others in the same area. there are agents at gig as well but i have never used them. you will need an inter-american driving permit available from aaa for $25. be sure to get the inter-american and not the international permit. the inter-american permit is printed in portuguese and spanish. the police insist on this and have been known to extort or confirep001e rental cars from uninformed gringos.
thats it! thanks my company helped me apply for this. i had it with my old passport. i think that it has expired at this point. i do not know and confused at this point.
wow, the exchange rate is almost where it was last august 1-2.17! weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee
Poucolouco
11-11-08, 12:23
Thats it! Thanks my company helped me apply for this. I had it with my old passport. I think that it has expired at this point. I do not know and confused at this point.
Wow, the exchange rate is almost where it was last August 1-2.17! Weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee
The permit expires in one year. Save yourself some time and fill out the application on-line. You can also mail it in to AAA if you prefer.
http://www.aaa.com/ppinternational/Int_IDP_apply.html
Alex Deuce
11-11-08, 15:22
The permit expires in one year. Save yourself some time and fill out the application on-line. You can also mail it in to AAA if you prefer.
http://www.aaa.com/ppinternational/Int_IDP_apply.html
Done!
Thanks for the info.... and dollar is up again @ 2.20.
Next question for those who dare to; Anyone ever rented a car in Rio? My company rented me one in Sao P, but I have never done so personally! I remember having to do something with my Visa/Passport. I do not recall what I needed to do. I do recall that an american Drivers license is not sufficient.
I assume you know Rio? Just asking. I'd happily drive in SP, BH and most other Brasilian cities if there were reason to. In Rio, I don't even like using the roads unless I'm protected in a tank (known locally as an 'autobus').
Alex Deuce
11-11-08, 18:01
I assume you know Rio? Just asking. I'd happily drive in SP, BH and most other Brasilian cities if there were reason to. In Rio, I don't even like using the roads unless I'm protected in a tank (known locally as an 'autobus').
He He, thats funny!
I am going to be there for 120 and want the freedom to drive and explore. I got my boys cousin from Rio that is going to stay in my Apartment during that time until School/UM starts back in January. I will have a good to great guide. He is a young kid and chases pussy in Miami with me when I am trolling. Besides, I have driven cars in California, New York , Santidomingo DR and London. There is no way on gods green earth they are worse than those fools.
Poucolouco
11-11-08, 19:34
he he, thats funny!
i am going to be there for 120 and want the freedom to drive and explore. i got my boys cousin from rio that is going to stay in my apartment during that time until school/um starts back in january. i will have a good to great guide. he is a young kid and chases pussy in miami with me when i am trolling. besides, i have driven cars in california, new york , santidomingo dr and london. there is no way on gods green earth they are worse than those fools.
driving in rio is no problem if you know where you are going. you will quickly get use to the close door-to-door situation. brasilians are quick to fill any hole that appears in traffic. they are not uncourteous; it's just their way. occasionally you will encounter someone in the right lane making a left turn in front of you. don't get pissed, just give leeway. on the rodovaria be alert to trucks that will pull onto the road at a snails pace as you are approaching at 80kph. also be alert to signs that read fiscalizacao. it means you are approaching a speed control area with cameras that will get your plate number if you are exceeding speed.
Rump Humper
11-13-08, 01:18
driving in rio is no problem if you know where you are going. you will quickly get use to the close door-to-door situation. brasilians are quick to fill any hole that appears in traffic. they are not uncourteous; it's just their way. occasionally you will encounter someone in the right lane making a left turn in front of you. don't get pissed, just give leeway. on the rodovaria be alert to trucks that will pull onto the road at a snails pace as you are approaching at 80kph. also be alert to signs that read fiscalizacao. it means you are approaching a speed control area with cameras that will get your plate number if you are exceeding speed.no worse than those fools? wait and see my friend.
As I live here and drive on daily basis, I have to say that if you intent to drive in the city only you're just plain crazy. Traffic is insane, no parking space etc.
BUT if you decide to rent a car please do following:
When you get the car, check it with the rental agent WITH A MAGNIFYING GLASS because that's what they will do when you return the car. ANY damage will be charged. The worst is that they do not have any prices for particular damage, they just estimate and make you pay.
As Poucolouco mentioned there are lots of radars in Rio, even for passing red light. You just need to know them. Tickets can be issued up to one month after the actual incident, so you can expect additional charges on your credit card if something like that happens.
I would recommend renting a car if one plans to make some field trips to nearby cities like Petropolis or Teresopolis. Just go to Galeao airport, rent the car from there and when leaving airport, you'll be on Linha Vermelha. Simple and not too much hassle.
What ever you decide to do, remember that there is something called "lei seca" which means no drinking and driving. Punishments are rather severe.
JohnnyBraz
11-14-08, 09:29
Could exec talent, or any other on the ground forum member please find out what rate help is giving on the exchange off us dollars.
could exec talent, or any other on the ground forum member please find out what rate help is giving on the exchange off us dollars.johnny,
yesterday official exchange rates closed at 2.36. cambios were selling reais for 2.12. the real is back down somewhat today as of mid morning rio time.
since i am generally not a helpee discotech kind of guy, i don't know what they're offering but i've heard traditionally it's a bit better than cambio rates.
Could exec talent, or any other on the ground forum member please find out what rate help is giving on the exchange off us dollars.
The rate help gave me on Wednesday was 1.9R per USD.... Atm was 2.16R plus conversion and convience fees. Got Thursday morning from vender 2.10R
Just landed back this morning to the foggy atlanta..
Ace
Jay Rollin
11-15-08, 01:16
Friday afternoon1.79 at the airport, 2.12 at the exchange shops, 2.31 at the ATM's and I'll let you know what Help is tonight.
As I live here and drive on daily basis, I have to say that if you intent to drive in the city only you're just plain crazy. Traffic is insane, no parking space etc.
BUT if you decide to rent a car please do following:
When you get the car, check it with the rental agent WITH A MAGNIFYING GLASS because that's what they will do when you return the car. ANY damage will be charged. The worst is that they do not have any prices for particular damage, they just estimate and make you pay.
As Poucolouco mentioned there are lots of radars in Rio, even for passing red light. You just need to know them. Tickets can be issued up to one month after the actual incident, so you can expect additional charges on your credit card if something like that happens.
I would recommend renting a car if one plans to make some field trips to nearby cities like Petropolis or Teresopolis. Just go to Galeao airport, rent the car from there and when leaving airport, you'll be on Linha Vermelha. Simple and not too much hassle.
What ever you decide to do, remember that there is something called "lei seca" which means no drinking and driving. Punishments are rather severe.
And you must wear shoes not sandals otherwise you'll get a fine.
Also need to have your original driver's licence with you and not a copy.
Jamaicanceo
11-17-08, 22:44
Brazil trader shoots himself on stock exchange trading floor
Monday November 17, 2008, 4:02 pm EST
SAO PAULO, Brazil (AP) -- A stock exchange trader has shot himself on the trading floor in Brazil.
Sao Paulo's Bovespa stock exchange says the 36-year-old man shot himself in the chest a couple of hours before markets closed in South America's biggest city.
The Bovespa statement says Paulo Sergio Silva was taken to a hospital, but his condition was not immediately available.
It was not clear if he shot himself due to the recent sharp losses in Brazilian stocks or for other reasons.
Trading was halted for a few minutes after the shot was fired on Monday.
JohnnyBraz
11-21-08, 09:53
Countries like Brazil, their real floats on the stock market, based on comodities, meaning if shares are at a high, there real is at a high, other countries like Thailand for instance, there thai baht, is pegged against the usa dollar, so it floats in hard currency against the us dollar, very similar. Weak countries have to peg there currency against the us dollar, as they have virtually zero or little commodities market.commodities markets at an all time high, us dollar v's real at it's weakest. Basic economics.
Live rates at 2008.11.21 17:46:44 UTC
1.00 USD = 2.45265 BRL
It went up slightly from yesterday morning:
Live rates at 2008.11.22 07:32:44 UTC
1.00 USD = 2.47700 BRL
www.xe.com/ucc
Cowa Banga
11-22-08, 10:33
If you are an American like me, this guy scares the shit out me.
Your thoughts...
Part 1 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TP_aJ7LcAAA&feature=related
Part 2 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=coaI3d89kuA&feature=related
Exec Talent
11-22-08, 12:55
If you are an American like me, this guy scares the shit out me.
Your thoughts...
Part 1 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TP_aJ7LcAAA&feature=related
Part 2 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=coaI3d89kuA&feature=related
Peter is 100% right. He has been sounding the alarm for some time; it is just that no one was listening. I am told that guys are in Rio spending money now because they had trips planned and the exchange rate has risen. However, reality is that these same guys may not have jobs when they return. People have no idea how bad it is going to get.
Everyone always thinks the answer is money. It NEVER is. The answer is fundamental changes in behavior. Unfortunately, the government thinks that rewarding bad behavior is a good thing. The problem is our government doesn't get it. Peter does. Most people will be totally screwed for some time. And, if they want to blame someone, don't look at Wall Street, look in the mirror. How many people bought houses they never intended to live in so they could flip them? Who did they think was going to buy them? Someone actually had to live in them at some point. Loans were granted without documented income. Banks made their fees up front which were packaged into the loan. Isn't there something fundamentally wrong with that?
Enjoy Rio while you can. Maybe you are right. Unless you are sitting on a boat load of cash, it is a little scary.
Exec Talent
11-24-08, 18:01
Good news is there are some tremendous bargins in stocks right now which have no place to go but up.
Bad news is that the Real, which is down to 2.33 today, is most like headed down farther.
Some in the financial media are finally getting it and speaking out. Here is one example.
http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/ContrarianChronicles/the-meddlers-cant-tame-the-market.aspx
Good news is there are some tremendous bargins in stocks right now which have no place to go but up.
Bad news is that the Real, which is down to 2.33 today, is most like headed down farther.
Some in the financial media are finally getting it and speaking out. Here is one example.
http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/ContrarianChronicles/the-meddlers-cant-tame-the-market.aspxThis continued talk of a $700b stimulus package is only going to hurt the exchange rate
Cowa Banga
11-25-08, 09:35
Your thoughts...
video 1 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ihL8wz4LUp4
video 2 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UAwGhCt-lAU&feature=related
video 3 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MKNl1c29uWc&feature=related
Yeah sure they are cheap but they could get even cheaper. Interestingly $1000 invested in stocks in the late 1920's was worth, well $1000 25 years later.
My thinking is when we find a bottom ( I am thinking maybe 700's on the S & P? possibly 600's?) we will get a nice 50% bump then stocks will do pretty much nothing for a decade or 2. Even when the economy improves, and it will improve in the next year or maybe 2, the deleveraging process will continue for a good decade.
For an interesting example on how develeraging affects growth. $1000 invested in the Janpanese index's in 1987 would be worth $200 today. Thats right the Nikkei was at 40,000 in 1987, it is around 8,000 now 20+ years later.
Me thinks one can make money trading positions, but buying stocks and holding then at this period in time is not going to produce stella returns. There have been a number of periods in history where stocks just did nothing for 10 to 20 years. This is most likely going to be one of those periods. Need to work off all the excesses built up in the system.
If you are an American like me, this guy scares the shit out me.
Your thoughts.
Part 1 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TP_aJ7LcAAA&feature=related
Part 2 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=coaI3d89kuA&feature=relatedOne more link along the lines of Cowa Banga's post on Peter Schiff.
I'm inclined to agree, the dollar is headed for big trouble !
http://cosmos.bcst.yahoo.com/up/player/popup/?rn=289004&cl=10830532&src=finance&ch=1316259
If you are an American like me, this guy scares the shit out me.
Your thoughts...
Part 1 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TP_aJ7LcAAA&feature=related
Part 2 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=coaI3d89kuA&feature=relatedDon't get me wrong, I really agree with the dire prognosis for the dollar in the above youtube clips but in the interests of balancing the argument here's someone that might cheer you up (if you're an enternal glass half full type!)
Titled "Jubak’s Journal: This isn’t the Great Depression"
http://video.msn.com/?mkt=en-us&brand=money&vid=68f9299b-b43e-4c30-aae6-a55388760bef&playlist=videoByTag:tag:money_top_investing:ns:MSNmoney_Gallery:mk:us:vs:1&from=MSNmoney_TheMarketsCrystalBallIsBroken&tab=s216
there is no direct correlation between these guys that get it right on a big call once and their future predictions. history is littered with these guys that make one good call and then their subsequent calls are way off. even a broken clock is right twice a day.
someone like a warren buffet, george soros and jim rogers. those guys have consistently made the big calls and gotten them correct over decades. none of these guys are predicting what this nut on youtube is predicting. i know who my money is on to be correct.......
the dollar, i was very long us dollars (80% of my assets) when it was hated around 1.55 euros. i am now slightly short dollars, have moved into euros, swiss, and aussie dollars. still have maybe 30% assets in usd. if the us starts to weaken again i will move back to a neutral 50/50 position.
i am thinking the brl will stay in the mid 2's for the foreseable future. the days of 1.5 are over for the next few years. history has shown brazil suffers worst disasters than that is happening in the us now, on a regular basis. there is no way brazil is going to come out of this economic mess unrep001hed.
commodities have been hit hard, inflation way higher than most countries (think 15%, the government figures of 6% are just not credible), extremely inefficient corrupt economy, trade deficit....... the only thing brazil has done well of late is find massive potential oil reserves, however any decent oil production increases are probably 5 years away, full potential production is probably 10 years away.
History is littered with these guys that make one good call and then their subsequent calls are way off. Even a broken clock is right twice a day.
Someone like a Warren Buffet, George Soros and Jim Rogers. Those guys have consistently made the big calls and gotten them correct over decades. None of these guys are predicting what this nut on youtube is predicting. I know who my money is on to be correct.I'm open minded to the counter argument on these things, and of course the Buffet / Rogers endorsement carries a lot of weight for all the reasons Bubba stated but surely there is some merit in what Schiff (. And several others) are saying? I'm interested in learning what people think Schiff is missing that makes his reasoning so flawed?
Exec Talent
11-26-08, 21:40
Good news is there are some tremendous bargins in stocks right now which have no place to go but up.
Bad news is that the Real, which is down to 2.33 today, is most like headed down farther.
Some in the financial media are finally getting it and speaking out. Here is one example.
http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/ContrarianChronicles/the-meddlers-cant-tame-the-market.aspx
OK, well, more than sometimes. Since my post the stock market has risen significantly and the exchange rate is down to 2.20. I am beginning to think some people just like to argue for the sake of argument.
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-572077907195969915
A movement from 2.33 to 2.2 is not exactly the call of the century, it is a normal daily move of late, moving within its defined range of 2.1/2.2 - 2.4.
There have been numerous studies on the very best short term financial markets traders in the world. They get daily to weekly calls right about 60% of the time. Due to the volatility of short term moves, numerous studies have proved that no one can predict with a high degree of accuracy over a whole career with accuracy. These same traders make their money not by predicting every move correctly, they make their money by being right more than they are wrong, cutting losses early while letting profits run. IE it is the way they trade rather than getting every call right. If the very best traders in the world can't get it right a high percentage of time any non professional that thinks they can call any financial market on a very short basis is delusional.
Medium to longer term calls are just as inaccurate. Who the hell would have predicted the Real would hit 1.5 when it was at 3.0 ? Less than 5% would have got that call right, way less than 5%.
Cowa Banga
11-27-08, 11:12
Bubba,
Do you have any investments in China? If you do, care to share?
Exec Talent
11-27-08, 11:36
A movement from 2.33 to 2.2 is not exactly the call of the century, it is a normal daily move of late, moving within its defined range of 2.1/2.2 - 2.4.
There have been numerous studies on the very best short term financial markets traders in the world. They get daily to weekly calls right about 60% of the time. Due to the volatility of short term moves, numerous studies have proved that no one can predict with a high degree of accuracy over a whole career with accuracy. These same traders make their money not by predicting every move correctly, they make their money by being right more than they are wrong, cutting losses early while letting profits run. IE it is the way they trade rather than getting every call right. If the very best traders in the world can't get it right a high percentage of time any non professional that thinks they can call any financial market on a very short basis is delusional.
Medium to longer term calls are just as inaccurate. Who the hell would have predicted the Real would hit 1.5 when it was at 3.0 ? Less than 5% would have got that call right, way less than 5%.
Watch the Monty Python video link I provided about 300 times then you MIGHT get it.
I don't invest in anything I can't understand. I just don't understand how a communist state run economy can be successful over a long period. I remember in the 80's how everyone was saying that Japan was going to rule the world. They were doing everything right, IE huge trade surplus, high savings rates, no unemployment, however by the mid 90's the economy was a mess and it hasn't recovered since. As I said in an earlier post the Japanese stocks market is still down 80% from its peak 20 years earlier. I agree that Asia is the future, however my personal view is that China may be just another bubble.
I am not saying that China may well be a good investment for some, it may well end up ruling the world, however it just doesn't fit my investment criteria. If you have done thorough research and are confident in your risk/reward scenario from an investment in China then go for it. If you want to invest in China solely because you hear everybody saying how it is "the place" to put your money, then you may want to step back and do more thorough research to get a less hyped response.
Cowa Banga
11-27-08, 13:02
Buddy,
The Japanese business model perhaps reinforced by its government pretty much said no business was allowed to fail and the drive for life time employment was absolutely insane. The economy was carrying dead weight.
From what I'm hearing, the Chinese government is allowing bad companies to go out business unlike Japan and what the US is doing now. Free enterprise is taking place there. My biggest concern is that the regulations haven't kept up with its economic growth.
I think this subprime mortgage meltdown is a big sham. It's the hedge funds who are doing all the damage to the world's financial institutions. Hedge funds are like de facto banks with their own rules and practices. Nothing is going happen to the hedge funds because the politicians are all involved. For example, the Clintons' daughter, Chelsey, works for a private equity firm.
By the way, guess who took on the bad debt, short sold, and purchased and underwrote credit default swaps? Hedge funds.
Watch the Monty Python video link I provided about 300 times then you MIGHT get it.
I must admit I didn't bother to click on the link and watch the video the first time, hence didn't pick up on the attempted humour.
Can anyone offer advice on ideal spots to exchange dollars for reals when traveling to Rio through GIG from GRU? Would it be better to change currency at the airport in Sao Paolo, airport in Rio, or some other place between the airport and where I'm staying in Copacabana?
Rodeo
Poucolouco
11-28-08, 21:10
Can anyone offer advice on ideal spots to exchange dollars for reals when traveling to Rio through GIG from GRU? Would it be better to change currency at the airport in Sao Paolo, airport in Rio, or some other place between the airport and where I'm staying in Copacabana?
Rodeo
You can change Dollars at the GIG airport before you exit the controlled area. You will not get a good exchange rate but you can get enough reais to pay for your taxi (about R$50.) After that your best exchange rate will be through the ATMs in Copacabana. (HSBC, Citibank, Banco do Brasil, and some branches of Bradesco.)
There are also ATM's at the Airport. You will need to go up a level or 2 from where you arrive to find them. They close after 10pm, hence a late flight will kill this idea.
ATM's are the best option IMHO for exchanging money anywhere in the world. 9 times out of 10 they give a better rate the actual currency.
I need to pay R$3,500 for an apartment the day I land and my plane arrives at 5am. What's the best way to get this many Reals early in the morning? I don't think ATMs will allow me to take out this much cash and not sure if the exchange houses are open this early?
I need to pay R$3,500 for an apartment the day I land and my plane arrives at 5am. What's the best way to get this many Reals early in the morning? I don't think ATMs will allow me to take out this much cash and not sure if the exchange houses are open this early?
Find a City Bank ATM. It allows multiple withdrawals.
There are at least two places in Copa that have these ATM's. If they are open that early I don't know. There might be one at the airport.
Exec Talent
11-30-08, 16:09
I need to pay R$3,500 for an apartment the day I land and my plane arrives at 5am. What's the best way to get this many Reals early in the morning? I don't think ATMs will allow me to take out this much cash and not sure if the exchange houses are open this early?
When do you arrive? I may be able to help you.
BTW, guys who come here looking for our advice and help should consider subscribing to the forum. I tried to PM you first.
The owner may well accept USD. If they do make sure it is at a decent rate, the rate today is R2.3. It has been varying a lot each day of late.
Failing that the Citibank ATM will allow 2 withdrawls of R$1000 each, hence that will give you $R2000. If you have a second ATM card from a different bank that will give you another $R2000. Problem solved. There are 2 citibanks on Avinida Senhora De Copacabana, both are close to Help.
HSBC is also a good option but will only give me R$1000+R$500 with a second withdrawl. There are also HSBC's on Avinida Senhora De Copacabana. This street is one street back and running parallel to the beach.
Find a City Bank ATM. It allows multiple withdrawals.
There are at least two places in Copa that have these ATM's. If they are open that early I don't know. There might be one at the airport.
The citibank beside blockbuster is closed. Only the one down the street on NS Copa is open now.
Poucolouco
11-30-08, 19:51
The citibank beside blockbuster is closed. Only the one down the street on NS Copa is open now.
Here is a list of convenient Copacabana ATMS that accept Plus, Most, Cirrus transactions:
City Bank / Blockbuster Copacabana
Av. Nossa Senhora de Copacabana, 619 / Figueriera Magalheas (Closed)
Av. Nossa Senhora de Copacabana, 828 / Constant Ramaos
HSBC Bank
Av. Nossa Senhora de Copacabana, 583 Sequeira Compos
Av. Nossa Senhora de Copacabana, 817 Constant Ramos
Av. Nossa Senhora de Copacabana, 124
.... Rua Princess Isabela west of Ave. N.S. de Copacabana in Leme
Av. Nossa Senhora de Copacabana, 1246 Near Rua Franciso Sa
Banco do Brasil
Av. Nossa Senhora de Copacabana, 860 Constant Ramos
Av. Nossa Senhora de Copacabana, 890, Esq Rua Barao de Ipanema
Additionally, some Bradesco Banks accept VISA-Plus, and Cirrus. It is hit or miss.
I need to pay R$3,500 for an apartment the day I land and my plane arrives at 5am. What's the best way to get this many Reals early in the morning? I don't think ATMs will allow me to take out this much cash and not sure if the exchange houses are open this early?Do you have a savings account? If so, put $1000 in there and withdraw it in Reais. This should double the amount you can take out. R$3500? Dang, how long are you staying?
Thanks for the helpful responses! I appreciate it. The addresses of the ATMs are helpful for any day.
I think I will end up doing a combination of dollars and Reals. The apartment is a 3 bedroom, but my friends are arriving at different times so I want to check-in first. The property manager is very accommodating so I'm sure I won't have a problem.
I let my subscription to the forum lapse last month because I didn't think I would be using PMs :). This is my first trip back to Rio since late 2005 and I'm hoping that despite some gloomy reports, it'll be as enjoyable as the last time.
The Citibank ATM nearest to the Marriott in Copacabana is now closed, good news is there is one the opposite direction a few blocks. Just walk toward Ipanema away from the location and it is there.
trade deficit....What trade deficit ? Brazil has been posting steady trade surpluses: 44 billion $ in 2005 , 46 in 2006 , 40 in 2007 and 20 between Jan-Sept 2008
http://www.bcb.gov.br/?BOLETIMEST
Trade deficit & surplus?
Per XE.com:
Live rates at 2008.12.04 04:35:44 UTC
1.00 USD = 2.50350 BRL
The Citibank ATM nearest to the Marriott in Copacabana is now closed, good news is there is one the opposite direction a few blocks. Just walk toward Ipanema away from the location and it is there.You mean the one next door to the old Blockbuster, now Lojas Americanas? If so, it was posted previously.
Anyone know what the Citibank ATM is exchanging at? It's lower then the XE.com rate usually by about 5 cents. (I feel ripped off when I use it.)
I have fallen for the US way of describing their trade accounts, even though I am not from the US. Most countries report a trade account and current account, the current account is often called the countries "trade position". The current account is the more comprehensive measure of ones "trade" position. Basically: -
Trade account = Balance on goods and services exported and imported.
Current Account = Trade account + net payments of interest/income oversees.
The bulk of net payments are usually foreign debt repayments and repatriation of profits from foreign owned companies. Hence even though Brazil is exporting physical goods and services to a tune of a surplus YTD of $23.8B, they have foreign debt repayments and repatriations of profits etc of $53.8B. Hence they are going "backwards"to the tune of $30B this year.
A source:-
http://news.ino.com/headlines/?newsid=20081117003298
From the article:-
Respondents also reduced their forecasts for the 2008 foreign trade surplus to $23.78 billion from $23.82 billion.
Analysts are expecting a 2008 year-end current account deficit of $30 billion.
Jamaicanceo
12-04-08, 15:44
Just got into Rio. I got at $1 to $R 2.31 exchange at the airport. I will check with Blame it on Rio, then Citi Bank atm.
But the market is:
Currency Conversion Results
Symbol U.S. Dollar Exchange
Rate Brazilian Real Bid Ask
USDBRL=X 1 Dec 4 2.4795 2.4795 2.4795 2.5295
Anyone know what the Citibank ATM is exchanging at? It's lower then the XE.com rate usually by about 5 cents. (I feel ripped off when I use it.)It depends on your bank, not the ATM.
If I use my citi card I get 2-5 cents less than my charles schwab card at the same time.
It depends on your bank, not the ATM.
If I use my citi card I get 2-5 cents less than my charles schwab card at the same time.Really?! I have a Citibank US account, When I've used it at the Citibank Rio ATM, I've gotten about 5 cents less than what the XE.com rate is for that day. Using my other US Bank Card results in the same. Then add the my other Banks Foreign Exchange Transaction Fee, (a percentage of the amount,) really makes me feel ripped off.
Wasn't like that before, Citibank started giving less than the daily rate about a year and a half ago.
BTW,
Live rates at 2008.12.04 18:48:44 UTC
1.00 USD = 2.54439 BRL
1.00 EUR = 3.26158 BRL
In the not so distant past, there was talk/speculation that my year's end the real vs dollar might make it to 1:1.90. Well, we've exceeded that. I was actually looking for a 1:2 rate, again, exceeded. Let's up the stakes. How's 1:2.75 sound to you? I think it's possible. Without attempting to be Mr. Economics, or look at leading indicators, I think it's on the horizon.
And, if this happens, when do we feel enough is enough. I always want the best bang for my buck, but, it is what it is. I just can't see myself flying 14 hours to just chase down the best exchange rate. Is it really worth it? Is .05 from this atm of that bank really going to make a difference on how I spend my day?
I just ask because, we're all in a better situation with regards to exchange rates than we were a month ago, six months ago, and even a year ago. I'd rather look at it from that perspective. Who knows, the rates could all go to hell tomorrow anyway......................
ryjer
Poucolouco
12-05-08, 03:04
I just can't see myself flying 14 hours to just chase down the best exchange rate. Is it really worth it? Is .05 from this atm of that bank really going to make a difference on how I spend my day?
I just ask because, we're all in a better situation with regards to exchange rates than we were a month ago, six months ago, and even a year ago. I'd rather look at it from that perspective. Who knows, the rates could all go to hell tomorrow anyway......................
ryjer
Future exchange rate? who knows. There are no facts about the future.
Basically .05 variation in the exchange rate would be about $6.00 difference in a R$1,000 withdrawl from an ATM. Your bigger problem sometimes is finding an operating ATM that accepts Visa/Plus, Choice, etc. When the lines are too long or the machines are out of service it is good to know what bank to go as a backup.
Future exchange rate? who knows. There are no facts about the future.
Basically .05 variation in the exchange rate would be about $6.00 difference in a R$1,000 withdrawl from an ATM. Your bigger problem sometimes is finding an operating ATM that accepts Visa/Plus, Choice, etc. When the lines are too long or the machines are out of service it is good to know what bank to go as a backup.
I don't claim to have the inside track on rates, but I'm very optimistic about it. Don't you think there's too much emphasis placed on atm's and banks? You exchange a little at the airport, or where you stay. I usually get a travel money card, and to hell with everything else. You can always haggle over a few pennies, but I reserve those skills for dealing with hard core GDPs.
ryjer
Poucolouco
12-05-08, 03:52
I don't claim to have the inside track on rates, but I'm very optimistic about it. Don't you think there's too much emphasis placed on atm's and banks? You exchange a little at the airport, or where you stay. I usually get a travel money card, and to hell with everything else. You can always haggle over a few pennies, but I reserve those skills for dealing with hard core GDPs.
ryjer
I don't view it as "too much emphasis." I believe ATM locations and currency exchange information is useful or current travellers, many of whom do not frequently check xe.com. By the way, what specific money card are you referring to? Both WorldCard and Amex discontinued those products.
By the way, what specific money card are you referring to? Both WorldCard and Amex discontinued those products.
I guess it depends on where you live. In the states I use a travel service called AAA. Each state has branches. I've used it several times in the past and never had any issues. I also take cash.
http://ww1.aaa.com/scripts/WebObjects.dll/AAAOnline?association=aaa&club=047&page=TravelMoneyHome
They will also allow you to order foreign currency, but I've never checked into this.
ryjer
Jamaicanceo
12-05-08, 09:27
Trade deficit & surplus?
Per XE.com:
Live rates at 2008.12.04 04:35:44 UTC
1.00 USD = 2.50350 BRL
You mean the one next door to the old Blockbuster, now Lojas Americanas? If so, it was posted previously.
Anyone know what the Citibank ATM is exchanging at? It's lower then the XE.com rate usually by about 5 cents. (I feel ripped off when I use it.)Yesterday the citi bank atm gave me 2.42; at the citi bank central exchange next door they offered 2.35.
We will never get the official real rate on the street. the difference is how real exchangers make their money.
1USD= R2.50 today!!!!. Now we are cooking!!!
Jamaicanceo
12-05-08, 10:47
1USD= R2.50 today!!!!. Now we are cooking!!!But the street value is what? R2.30? I will see what I can find in Rio today.
Cowa Banga
12-05-08, 10:50
http://fora.tv/2008/10/21/Geopolitical_Consequences_of_the_Credit_Crunch
Live rates at 2008.12.05 20:07:44 UTC
1.00 USD = 2.61895 BRL
Ryjerrob was hoping for 1:2.75.
I'm hoping for 1:3.00
Poucolouco
12-05-08, 22:03
I guess it depends on where you live. In the states I use a travel service called AAA. Each state has branches. I've used it several times in the past and never had any issues. I also take cash.
http://ww1.aaa.com/scripts/WebObjects.dll/AAAOnline?association=aaa&club=047&page=TravelMoneyHome
They will also allow you to order foreign currency, but I've never checked into this.
ryjer
This is very useful information for visitors, Ryjerrob. The Travel Money cards provide a safe alternative to carrying cash. They work just like a debit card and they provide access to cash withdrawls through ATMs. They have several fees associated with them and the exchange rates are not as good as banks but they are good backup cards to your bank card at ATMs.
When you are chasing tail you never want to find yourself without access to BRLs. And don't think you can fool the GDPs with US dollars. Most of them stay informed on the current exchange rates.
Jamaicanceo
12-05-08, 22:38
Today, I went to citibank copacabana and exchanged $500 us for R$1.210 at 2.42. They charged me R$4.60 for the transaction over the counter.
I have a question about the exchange sites. Oanda.com shows the exchange at 2. 48, and xe.com shows 2. 61. Why the difference. Don't they use the same system? One thing is for certain, I am jealous of everyone there, at these rates. I wish I had money.
I am also hoping and believe that if not by New years, by Carnaval, we shall reach again the famous 3 Reais per $ line!!!!In the past few days, weeks and months, the Real has been in an authentic roller coster!!! From 1.55 in June-July to 2.6 in December and we are not done yet!!!Where will this craziness end?????
Correct me if I'm wrong but whats the reason of changing dollars to reals. Couldn't you just pay the girl less?
Chi Town Hustler
12-06-08, 16:08
Does anyone know what the is rate on the black market?
I am also hoping and believe that if not by New years, by Carnaval, we shall reach again the famous 3 Reais per $ line!!!!In the past few days, weeks and months, the Real has been in an authentic roller coster!!! From 1.55 in June-July to 2.6 in December and we are not done yet!!!Where will this craziness end?????Can you imagine what a 1:3 exchange rate would do to me. Many nights of nasty sex at VIP's. Waking up drunk in the gutter after several all night benders. And then the sex again. Let there be wine women and song for me and my merry men!
ryjer
I am also hoping and believe that if not by New years, by Carnaval, we shall reach again the famous 3 Reais per $ line!!!!In the past few days, weeks and months, the Real has been in an authentic roller coster!!! From 1.55 in June-July to 2.6 in December and we are not done yet!!!Where will this craziness end?????It looks like I might have to be back for Carnival or sooner. That increases the amout of fun at 4x4 or my cheap centro places. I can not wait. Santa what I want for Christmas is 3 to 1 R or better and fuel prices to stay lower for airfare..
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20602081&sid=aemCVZN2ZJXM&refer=benchmark_currency_rates
2.42, 20cent drop in 24hr! I don't think it last too long once they lower their bank rate so look for a sharp rebound.
JohnnyBraz
12-07-08, 05:22
Where certain countries who run off comodities seem to have leveled out against the us dollar and euro, it seems that Brazil is taking a dive, and the real becoming weaker and weaker, when one rents an apartment in Rio now, something to take in mind is to try and find one where the owner is Brazilian and living in Brazil, so the payment would be in reals. You will save up to 40%.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20602081&sid=aemCVZN2ZJXM&refer=benchmark_currency_rates
2.42, 20cent drop in 24hr! I don't think it last too long once they lower their bank rate so look for a sharp rebound.
On top of that, our Fed meets tomorrow and Tuesday to discuss the target federal funds rate. It is expected to lower the target by 50 basis points to 0.50%. There is even talk that the cut may by to 0.25%. When the Fed lowers our interest rates, the value of the dollar falls in relation to countries that haven't cut or have raised their interest rates.
So Brazil is intervening to prop up the value of their currency and we are shooting the value of ours down. I think 2 weeks ago the exchange rate was up to 2.60. We can expect a substantial drop in the exchange rate this week. Perhaps of 3% or 4% to 2.28-2.32.
I am leaving this week for Brazil. I would have enjoyed a rate of 2.50. But even if I can only get 2.25, that is a WHOLE lot better than the 1.65-1.75 range we had a few months ago.
Sorry if this has already been talked about -- not sure how to search specifically about opening an account in Brazilian reals (BRL). While I want to spend time in the Brazil, I can't say yet if my visitor status would ever change to being a resident. Do you need to be a resident in Brazil or can one do it from abroad as perhaps an offshore account ?
Readers here seem to be concerned mostly about the BRL exchange rates but when the bottom falls out of the dollar again and again (as many astute observers are predicting), other currencies will be looking more and more attractive. Indeed, it might be wise to consider that the BRL currency could well be worth a lot more in the near future.
Here is one example of a complexity I encountered researching a (HKD) Honk Kong dollar account. The Bank of East Asia (BEA) is Hong Kong (HK) based and offers their HK resident customers an option to open accounts in their foreign branches (i.e. the US, UK, Canada, etc) in their respective currencies (i.e. a foreign or offshore bank account).
However, their US branches don't allow the same option for their US citizen/residents. That is, we who might live in the USA and have a BEA bank account from one of their branches in a US city can't open a Hong Kong dollar (HKD) account unless we move to HK. It works in only one direction -- HK to US but not from US to HK. Doesn't seem fair does it ? Almost like discrimination! :( When trying to obtain BRL accounts, perhaps there would exist similar rules.
Obviously, I'm not schooled in the mystical arts of the rich folk's wealth management techniques.
I suspect it is easier if the US (or any foreign) citizen is actually living in the other country because of various banking law restrictions. Does anyone know a good source for info to help Americans who are still in the USA to move their dollar savings "abroad" or into safer currencies ?
Officially it is not possible to open a local Brazilian account without being a resident. Again with the strict controls the Brazilian government has on the currency it would be highly unlikely that an offshore bank would allow you to have an offshore Brazilian account.
I was in Brazil when the Real was 3:1, a 3:1 exchange rate now would not be the same now because Brazil has experienced high inflation since then. For example Lúomo used to be R$130 for entrance and girl, now the same deal will cost you R$260. There are similar price increases for pretty much everything in Rio. Hence over 5 years the price has pretty much doubled in local currency.
When you compare these price increases to euro or dollar denominated economies, inflation is 3 to 5 times higher. On this basis, taking out all other factors, the currency may well weaken a lot more.
If the world economies get worse, it would be highly likely that the Brazilian currency would weaken a lot faster than most other major currencies. Hence we could see a much weaker Real.
Art Fartzalot
12-15-08, 03:18
One can in the US open a Brazilian Real interest beareing account @ Everbank World Markets, www.everbank.com
In 2004 was in Foz Iguazu and attempted to open an account using my hotel as my address, I was kinda transient, and it didn't fly. Think these days if u are a US Citiizen outside the US many countries don't want one's bizness unless depositing a lotta money.
I leave Wed for Manaus and Santarem so looking forward to reading posts on the currency exchange.
Art Fartzalot
I leave Wed for Manaus and Santarem so looking forward to reading posts on the currency exchange.
Just a small note. When going to Santarém, don't miss to visit Alter do Chão. The most beautiful river beaches in Brasil with Crystal clear water. :)
Gents.
You simply can't open a bank account in Brasil unless:
1. You have a permanent or work visa.
2. You have income in Brasil, from work here or retirement frrom your original country.
3. You have CPF.
4. You have someone who will RECOMMEND you to the bank.
5. You have a fixed address, that you can prove.
6. Related to above you need to show an utility bill on your name, gas, electricity etc.
All in all its such a pain in the ass to open an account that I'd just wouldn't do it. I opened additional account, since I thought I needed one and it was such a clusterfuck that I still can't believe it. I kept the account for about a year and it cost me around R$ 300, since there is a fee that I had to pay to the bank even there were no activity in the account.
P
The US dollar got smoked today, absolutely killed against pretty much every currency except the Real. The Real is showing relative weakness, hell if it can't rally against even the US dollar on days like this the outlook is for a much weaker Real.
The US dollar got smoked today, absolutely killed against pretty much every currency except the Real. The Real is showing relative weakness, hell if it can't rally against even the US dollar on days like this the outlook is for a much weaker Real.
It seems to me that the US dollar fell against the real as well. Yesterday xe.com had a rate of 2.38 and at 7 pm today (EST) the rate was 2.30. That is about a 3.2% (or so, .08/2.38) decline in one day.
Now that is just today. Other countries, including Brazil, also have to make decisions about their own interest rates. The ECB seems to have indicated that it will take a breather on lowering rates in 2009 until it sees the impact of them on their economy. Over the next few weeks and months, the dollar may gain on some currencies.
Unfortunately, that won't help me on my trip. I will have to be satisfied that the rate may be 2.50 on my next one.
Alex Deuce
12-17-08, 02:55
Gents.
You simply can't open a bank account in Brasil unless:
1. You have a permanent or work visa. Yes
2. You have income in Brasil, from work here or retirement frrom your original country. False -Just have Money
3. You have CPF. False
4. You have someone who will RECOMMEND you to the bank. False -Just Have Money
5. You have a fixed address, that you can prove. True
6. Related to above you need to show an utility bill on your name, gas, electricity etc. False
All in all its such a pain in the ass to open an account that I'd just wouldn't do it. I opened additional account, since I thought I needed one and it was such a clusterfuck that I still can't believe it. I kept the account for about a year and it cost me around R$ 300, since there is a fee that I had to pay to the bank even there were no activity in the account.
P
It is not a pain if you have any work or permanent Visa, permeant address and Cash. When I consulted for Citi it took me an hour with the above to open my account with HSBC. And 30 minutes of it was me trying to talk shit to the fine ass manager. Somebody was fucking with you or thinking you were trying to money launder! If this was the case, X-pats would not be able to survive. All bank managers have the discretion to ask for addition info to prohibit illegal activities. The minimum they must have is a CPF and Address period. Actually, its easier to open an account in a businesses name than in your personal one. (what I did for black box accounts) Also, don't try to deposit anything over 10kUS if you have a US Tax Lien or wanted by interpol.
The US dollar got smoked today, absolutely killed against pretty much every currency except the Real. The Real is showing relative weakness, hell if it can't rally against even the US dollar on days like this the outlook is for a much weaker Real.
Yes it did, and look for it to get much WORSE. I have heard we could be at 2-1 against the Euro in very short order.... YIKES....
Exec Talent
12-17-08, 18:46
Yes it did, and look for it to get much WORSE. I have heard we could be at 2-1 against the Euro in very short order.... YIKES....
I bought Euros last week at 1.27 and now they are over 1.43. Our government sure knows how to screw things up, but good.
Yes the real did strengthen a little against the US, maybe 3 or 4 % over the last few days, but compared to most other currencies that strengthened 10% or more, the Real is showing relative weakness against most major currencies. Relative weakness is the best front running guide to outright weakness. IE the Real ain't looking like it wants to rally any time soon.
It is not a pain if you have any work or permanent Visa, permeant address and Cash. When I consulted for Citi it took me an hour with the above to open my account with HSBC. And 30 minutes of it was me trying to talk shit to the fine ass manager. Somebody was fucking with you or thinking you were trying to money launder! If this was the case, X-pats would not be able to survive. All bank managers have the discretion to ask for addition info to prohibit illegal activities. The minimum they must have is a CPF and Address period. Actually, its easier to open an account in a businesses name than in your personal one. (what I did for black box accounts) Also, don't try to deposit anything over 10kUS if you have a US Tax Lien or wanted by interpol.
As of Nov 1, 2008, you can open an account without a permanent visa, but only at Banco do Brazil, and I think only in the centro branch in Rio or SP. We will be trying to get one as a test soon, and will let you know how it works (working for a company that helps with corporate relocations to Brazil).
I belive you do need a CPF, those are simple to get.
I am currently in Brazil. I withdrew money from an ATM (banco 24 horas) and received a rate of 2.34 with R$8.00 fee from the Brazilian bank. I get 2 free international ATM withdrawals per month from my US bank. The rate given by XE.com was 2.35.
Prices here have risen in some areas since my last trip a year ago and are the same in other areas. Taxis seem to be charging very similar rates to a year ago. My first hotel of choice rates rates by 10%. I switched to another hotel after 2 days that was charging R$70 per night, a very good rate. However, they said they were raising their rate at the end of the year, Dec. 31, to R$90 per night. That is a 30% increase.
I have not eaten in many restaurants yet. I shop at the grocery store for fruits and juices to keep in my refridgerator, the hotel has a free breakfast, and my friends treat me to dinner in their home (several but not all evenings). I did get a hamburger from a Brazilian fast food place and saw that their prices were up 4% or 5% from a year ago. Groceries did not seem to be much higher, at least for the items I was looking to buy. I didn't check meats, milk, eggs, and other staples.
This isn't a mongering trip so I haven't check GDP prices. The price for internet time is exactly the same as a year ago at $R2.50 per hour.
I haven't yet talked with my friends a lot about the Brazilian economy and how things are here. The conversations so far have been about the US economy collapse and Barack Obama.
More in a few days.
I am currently in Brazil... My first hotel of choice rates rates by 10%. I switched to another hotel after 2 days that was charging R$70 per night, a very good rate. However, they said they were raising their rate at the end of the year, Dec. 31, to R$90 per night. That is a 30% increase.Are these hotels in Rio?
Those prices sound really inexpensive.
Are these hotels in Rio?
Those prices sound really inexpensive.
No. I am in the Northeast of Brazil.
Yes, these prices are inexpensive because the hotels are very basic. There are many other luxury and semi-luxury hotels charging R$150 to R$300 per night plus a 10% tourisim tax.
JohnnyBraz
12-29-08, 02:45
Expect 3brl to the US Dollar in the new year, if not Carnival definetly by Easter.
Poucolouco
12-29-08, 04:08
Expect 3brl to the US Dollar in the new year, if not Carnival definetly by Easter.
Why should we expect this?
JohnnyBraz
12-29-08, 04:43
Why should we expect this?The brazilian real runs heavily off comodities, commodities will hit there lowest peak between carnival and easter. Before leaveling out then rising again.
The real will eventually return to about 1. 8 to 2 reals to the dollar, probably by the end off 2009.
One tip for you guys that need to access a good amount of Reals every month. You can do this through you friendly local cambio. It works like this. You wire USD$ to the cambios US dollar account in the US. Most have an account in the US and some have an account in Europe for Euros. Then you pickup Reals from the cambio office on confirmation that they have received the funds.
I personally do this for about R10,000 per month. If I was to move more money I would probably do it in a few moves.
Cambios have for a long time played a pivotal role in the Real/USD. Locals that wish to move Reals out of the country deposit the local currency with a cambio. The cambio then wires the USD to an offshore USD account held by the local. The result is the locals with money can move money out of the country quite freely without having to deal with government rules.
An exchange of 3:1 looks possible within the next 12 months. My personal opinion is it won't happen by carnaval, but then in these crazy market times anything is possible.
An exchange of 3:1 looks possible within the next 12 months. My personal opinion is it won't happen by carnaval, but then in these crazy market times anything is possible.
The rate on XE.com is 2.41 as of 25 minutes ago. I am going to get reais later this afternoon.
I am not as sure as some others about an eventual 3.00 rate between the real and the dollar. If there was some sound economic reason for this (commodity price declines) then we should have been seeing a steady decline in the value of the real since it hit 2.30 in October. On the contrary, it hit 2.61 in November and has since been rising in value.
I feel the uncertainty surrounding the US economy will prevent any substantial rise in the exchange rate in the near future. Remember that the sub-prime mortgage meltdown last and this year was only round 1. There is another round of ARM mortgages that will reset to new (higher) rates in 2009.
In addition, the retail meltdown is hurting shopping malls. The landlords are seeing stores go bankrupt and have many vacancies. They can't pay their own commercial mortgages. So real estate professionals are predicting a round of commercial real estate foreclosures in 2009 and 2010. This will hinder any recovery in the financial sector which is essential for a recovery of the economy as a whole.
I can't see the dollar outperforming the real in 2009. I expect the exchange rate to stay in the 2.00 - 2.50 range until 2010. Even this prediction is shakey since as we speak WWIII may be in the offing in the Mid-East. I can easily see Hezbollah launching rockets into northern Israel. Between them and al-Quaeda / Taliban, and the Pakistan/India goings on, who knows what kind of wrenches can be thrown into the world economic mix.
Hi, thinking to come to Brazil in January, is there some problem do get change in reais banknotes of 500 euro each one ? Cause I will surely carry bancomat and credit cards, but I feel better, to have always with me a bit of fresh cash too.
Thanks....
No problem for 500 Euro notes, the cambios love them because they are easy to smuggle out of the country, hence there is a demand for them. If one cambio does not like them go to another.
I once brought about 25 with me, sure it is over the limit of allowable currency that you can bring into the country (R$10,000), but putting 25 banknotes in a few different hiding places, amongst other notes doesn't draw attention. They would really have to go through you stuff with a fine tooth comb to find it. Unless you are known to them or are carrying an obvious large amount of contraband goods, there is no reason to do a thorough search of your body.
George, all the reasons you listed below is exactly why the Real is tanking. Basically when the western world is booming, south america has good times, however when the western world falls into recessionary times, south america feels it much worse. It is this historic volatility on the upside and downside which has historically caused major currency crisis's in the underdeveloped world.
The Brazilian economy is very inefficient and corrupt. You can't hide from bad times when the world economy is in a vicious downward spiral.
No problem for 500 Euro notes....
Thanks Bubba...I will surely no bring contrabands goods, so it will be fine. I just asked cause in november in provincial cities in Russia they were not much happy to change 500 euro.
Could I ask a better rate changing 500 euro instead of for example only 100 euro ? Could it be dangerous to change it in normal cambio and better in a bank ? (maybe at normal cambio in the street the man that changes can call a friend telling him to follow you,cause you bring a lot of cash, something probably hard it happens if you directly inside bank?)
The rate on XE.com is 2.41 as of 25 minutes ago. I am going to get reais later this afternoon.
What's the rate they're giving at the airport (GIG) right now?
Sure a cambio could stiff you by calling a friend. However, they deal in quite large amounts and your few thousand probably won't be much of a big deal. I would negotiate for larger amounts by going to a couple or 3 cambios.
I have walked out of cambios with R$20,000 in my pockets and have not had a problem. Getting into a cab quickly is not a bad idea if you need to travel a bit of distance.
There was a chinese lady killed while in a cab after changing R$300,000 from a cambio about 6 months ago, hence your concerns are not to be entirely dismissed. Just be careful, fully scope the area and you will be fine.
The bank rate is worse and you will be required to fill in paperwork for amounts above $5,000. I think a bank is a bad idea.
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