PDA

View Full Version : Real vs Dollar and other currency issues



Pages : [1] 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Admin
01-01-07, 02:00
Thread Starter

Java Man
07-11-07, 18:30
After a couple of months of hovering in the 1.90 to 1.95 range, the dollar yesterday dipped to 1.89. It's 1.88 today. How low can it go?

Prosal
07-12-07, 14:07
How low can it go?
Argentina Peso is at 4.30 for the €.

If I had any desire to go back to South America (which is not the case), I'd go straight to BA, Cordoba, Mendoza or Rosario.

Amerioca
07-12-07, 16:31
After a couple of months of hovering in the 1.90 to 1.95 range, the dollar yesterday dipped to 1.89. It's 1.88 today. How low can it go?

Today, it opened at 1.89, and dropped to 1.87 within hours. At the current rate, it would not surprise me if the dollar tanks to 1.70 before the end of the year. Many traders expected the dollar to tenaciously hold at the 2.0 mark, however, that line has been breached. Unfortunately, we have been losing significant ground to most currencies in the past several years.

Bravo
07-12-07, 18:15
Today, it opened at 1.89, and dropped to 1.87 within hours. At the current rate, it would not surprise me if the dollar tanks to 1.70 before the end of the year. Many traders expected the dollar to tenaciously hold at the 2.0 mark, however, that line has been breached. Unfortunately, we have been losing significant ground to most currencies in the past several years.

Should go back up AFTER the Pan AM games. Everytime their is a major event in Brasil (IE Carnival) the exchange rates dip in their favor, its been that way for years.

Jan 156
07-12-07, 20:33
Jackson - is there any merit perhaps in moving this discussion to a thread of its own?

a) It is only of interest to US members

b) it means visitors wanting to access information about mongering in Brasil have to trawl through such a vast amount of barely related material that they may well give up.

I know it is important to you American guys in deciding whether you want to go to Brasil or not but, with respect, this is a mongering forum not an economics chatroom.

Best wishes

Rio Bob
07-12-07, 23:59
Jackson - is there any merit perhaps in moving this discussion to a thread of its own?

a) It is only of interest to US members

b) it means visitors wanting to access information about mongering in Brasil have to trawl through such a vast amount of barely related material that they may well give up.

I know it is important to you American guys in deciding whether you want to go to Brasil or not but, with respect, this is a mongering forum not an economics chatroom.

Best wishes

This is the General Info thread which means anything goes.

If this discussion was going on in the Rio Reports section then I can understand your point B which should only be about mongering in Rio not exchange rates but it's not perfect there either.

Why doesn't someone tell us how the Pound or Euro is doing these days compared to the Real, Im sure the Americans would be interested.

Edward M
07-13-07, 01:15
Jackson - is there any merit perhaps in moving this discussion to a thread of its own?

a) It is only of interest to US members

b) it means visitors wanting to access information about mongering in Brasil have to trawl through such a vast amount of barely related material that they may well give up.

I know it is important to you American guys in deciding whether you want to go to Brasil or not but, with respect, this is a mongering forum not an economics chatroom.

Best wishesWith all due respect money and economics are a very important part of mongering by definition. I am on the verge of dumping a few grand into Reais to pre-emptively cut my losses and appreciate all of the advice on the subject.

Jan 156
07-13-07, 02:13
this is the general info thread which means anything goes.


well you have posted many more times than i, and if you are expressing the wishes of a majority i bow to peer feelings on it. i'd argue the point but it would only invite further discussion that (imho) makes the purpose of the forum a side issue.

if anyone wants to know the exchange rate there are dozens of sites that provide it instantly.

Amerioca
07-13-07, 05:03
Jackson - is there any merit perhaps in moving this discussion to a thread of its own?

a) It is only of interest to US members

b) it means visitors wanting to access information about mongering in Brasil have to trawl through such a vast amount of barely related material that they may well give up.

I know it is important to you American guys in deciding whether you want to go to Brasil or not but, with respect, this is a mongering forum not an economics chatroom.

Best wishes

I agree with Rio Bob. This is the most appropriate forum for such a topic. As for economics not playing an important role in our hobby, I must disagree with you.

Java Man
07-13-07, 13:32
Your wish has been granted Christopherd.

1.00 GBP (British Pound) = 3.79630 BRL

1.00 EURO = 2.57403 BRL

1.00 US DOLLAR = 1.86740 BRL :(

Damn Yankee Dollar keeps dropping daily against the Real. If this keeps up, it will be worthless, and the GDP will have to start sending money to their "friends" in the US!!

I'm not sure how the other currencies are doing on a daily basis.

Edward M
07-13-07, 19:18
I made some calls today to see about buying some Reais for my next trip before my dollars become even more worthless. Citibank and HSBC do not sell Reais. American Express sells (and buys) at a loan-shark rate of 15%+$6. Anybody know of any better options?

Edward M
07-13-07, 20:18
Should go back up AFTER the Pan AM games. Everytime their is a major event in Brasil (IE Carnival) the exchange rates dip in their favor, its been that way for years.I wish it were true but it is not. I just looked at the Real:dollar for Carnival and 4 weeks later for the last 11 years and it went up 6 and down 5. It took a drastic drop of 0.2383 in 2003 and averaged a 0.0166 loss over these 11 years not to mention an overall gain into Carnival with some big gains of 0.3248 in 1999 and 6 other years with gains as well vs only 4 with losses. See data below:

"4 weeks prior","Carnival","4 weeks after","4 weeks prior","Carnival","4 weeks after"
1/14/1997,2/11/1997,3/11/1997,1.0418,1.0466,1.0532
1/27/1998,2/24/1998,3/24/1998,1.1274,1.1344,1.1395
1/19/1999,2/16/1999,3/16/1999,1.5702,1.8950,1.8575
2/8/2000,3/7/2000,4/4/2000,1.7633,1.7454,1.7433
1/30/2001,2/27/2001,3/27/2001,1.9691,2.0324,2.1224
1/15/2002,2/12/2002,3/12/2002,2.3569,2.4565,2.3430
2/4/2003,3/4/2003,4/1/2003,3.5547,3.5647,3.3264
1/27/2004,2/24/2004,3/23/2004,2.8641,2.9610,2.9180
1/11/2005,2/8/2005,3/8/2005,2.7114,2.6312,2.6940
1/31/2006,2/28/2006,3/28/2006,2.2109,2.1196,2.2244
1/23/2007,2/20/2007,3/20/2007,2.1344,2.0927,2.0754

Giggity
07-14-07, 07:46
I made some calls today to see about buying some Reais for my next trip before my dollars become even more worthless. Citibank and HSBC do not sell Reais. American Express sells (and buys) at a loan-shark rate of 15%+$6. Anybody know of any better options?
You might try buying some "call-option" contracts on Reais for the month you plan on going. These securities basically reserve your right to buy the Real at a given price regardless of how much the price goes up in the future.

But then, you'd have to expect the value of the Real to continue rising (because the reserved USD/BRL price is worse than today's)... and I don't know how many Reais a contract is worth in the currency-options market. So, you might have to buy contracts on more Reais than you have any plan of using. If you have a securities broker, talk to him about currency options and tell him about your travel plans. He might have some more proper advice.

Of course, you could buy Reais directly through a ForEx account, but you usually have to buy tens of thousands of them at a time, which is probably useless to you. The same might go for options, in which case this entire post would be entirely useless. But, hey. I tried...

Off Road
07-14-07, 10:23
I mentioned this before. I have invested in mutual fund EWR, a Brazil index fund. It has gone up 45% since March 1. I wish I had bought more.

This might be a bit safer than just buying Reias.. but then again, I am not a stock broker, just a lucky bastard who asked my broker to invest some of my portfolio in brazil, only because I live here.

Londonboy
07-14-07, 20:30
Hi,

Has the Real gone up or down against the the UK Pound?

Thinking of going in the next few months,

It was near R$4 to the 1 UK Pound at the end of last year.

Off Road
07-15-07, 01:06
The pound is down against the real, like the dollar, so is the euro. You can check on Yahoo..

http://finance.yahoo.com/currency/convert?amt=1&from=GBP&to=BRL&submit=Convert

Charm City Dave
07-17-07, 01:24
I mentioned this before. I have invested in mutual fund EWR, a Brazil index fund. It has gone up 45% since March 1. I wish I had bought more.

This might be a bit safer than just buying Reias.. but then again, I am not a stock broker, just a lucky bastard who asked my broker to invest some of my portfolio in brazil, only because I live here.

It's a great investment. I've been in it two years and it is up 335%.

DFWdude
07-17-07, 06:19
Its too bad the Reais has gotten so strong agaist the dollar, or the dollar so weak. Anyway Brazil is almost out of my leauge now in $$$.

Giggity
07-17-07, 23:21
The pound is down against the real, like the dollar, so is the euro. You can check on Yahoo..

http://finance.yahoo.com/currency/convert?amt=1&from=GBP&to=BRL&submit=Convert
This probably indicates that the Real is strong rather than the dollar or pound being weak. This usually occurs when a country's government is less fiscally irresponsible than others. According to the Wall Street Journal, Brazil is currently running a very low budget deficit (link (http://www.nasdaq.com/aspxcontent/NewsStory.aspx?cpath=20070712%5CACQDJON200707121056DOWJONESDJONLINE000757.htm)), which requires fewer bond sales, which reduces the central bank's need to buy bonds in the event that nobody else wants them, which reduces the central bank's need to inflate the money supply to pay for those bonds (while other countries like the UK and US are currently doing exactly that at an alarming rate), which leads to the price of the real rising in terms of other currencies.

Don't worry, though. If there's one thing governments in general (especially those with less experience in economic policy) are good at, it's ruining an economic boom. I see two possible long-term results: People get really sick of the Brazilian government's notorious corruption, and elect some "progressive" politician to tax the hell out of them in order to fund a rapidly expanding welfare scheme, bringing the Brazilian economy down along with them. Businesses go broke, the supply of goods and services drops, people get poor, price of mongering goes down. People get sick of the high taxes and barriers to business that exist in Brazil, so they elect an even more right-wing leader to cut taxes. He won't eliminate government programs that are too closely connected to the special interests whose pockets he is in, so the budget deficit skyrockets bringing the long-term inflation rate with it. Price of Real goes down in terms of other currencies, thus price of mongering drops for foreigners.This list is by no means exhaustive. There are plenty of subtleties in macroeconomic policy through which the Brazilian government can accidentally destroy the well being of the poorest citizens. You can expect any one of them to happen in the next few years. Failing that, some other wacko foreign government will do it all instead.

In the meantime, there are plenty of other places to monger, if you're willing to take a risk and look. That's what people were doing when they first uncovered Rio as a mongering destination. That's what the folks who report on Villa Mimosa are doing. There are plenty of untouched parts of Brazil, and the whole world to look. Be adventurous. I can't wait to join you once I graduate.

Brazilman
07-18-07, 02:29
Its going to be tough to find another Brazil to monger at. Costa Rica is ok and Argentina sucks ass. I hear Praque is good, but the euro exchange probably isn't much better than the real. Jackson needs to start a new forum: "Mongering destinations like Brazil"

Edward M
07-18-07, 03:36
http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/article.aspx?StoryId=ceff4b01-cf3c-4618-af0c-39daa497f0a2

"The Brazilian real is expected to end 2007 at BRL1.92 to the dollar, analysts forecast."

although it dropped again today

Java Man
07-24-07, 03:05
I heard a radio report this morning that the dollar had gained against the Japanese Yen. I thought maybe it gained on the Real too, but alas it only dropped: 1.842 today. :(

Carlos Primeros
07-28-07, 22:47
This morning doleiros paid 1,92 RS for the USD at Sr. d Nossa Copacaban. I went to three places and they all quoted similar.

Euro was 2,65 RS

Carlos

Ryjerrob
07-29-07, 06:36
This morning doleiros paid 1,92 RS for the USD at Sr. d Nossa Copacaban. I went to three places and they all quoted similar.

Euro was 2,65 RS

Carlos

The sad thing for me is that I'll probably complain, but keep going as long as I can still breath.

ryjer

Pyjama
08-01-07, 15:22
Does anyone of you have experience comparing VISA-card versus MASTER-card? Is there any difference between them? Which one has the better acceptance in Brazil??

I used to have a VISA-card for many years and made extensive use of it when travelling to Brazil (ATMs, hotels, restaurants etc). Now it has expired, so I got a new one from my bank. Problem is, my bank has changed from VISA to MASTER.

Are there still people around using traveller cheques? Haven't done this for a decade...

Pyjama, leaving in 2 weeks :-))

Sperto
08-01-07, 16:12
Does anyone of you have experience comparing VISA-card versus MASTER-card? Is there any difference between them? Which one has the better acceptance in Brazil??
VISA is more accepted.

Off Road
08-01-07, 23:13
I compared the DJIA vs Real.. interesting that they mirror each other. DJ up, Real down.. This is a 6 month view. Personally I would prefer the DJ up and Dollar down.

Brian Moloney
08-02-07, 03:28
I compared the DJIA vs Real.. interesting that they mirror each other. DJ up, Real down.. This is a 6 month view. Personally I would prefer the DJ up and Real down.Christ you guys had it good for TO DAM LONG! I started travelling in 1992 to Ukraine. The canadian dollar was worth only$. 49cents to the Yankee greenback. OUCH did that hurt. Glad to see the US dollar FALL. It only took 31 years. After I paid the ursury bank charge exchange rate I was paying almost 2 canadian for 1 US dollar. My My My today its worth roughly $. 96 cents to buy 1 US dollar. Hopefully it will be at par in the next 6 months. US economists predict it to be at par. In the EE countries then every body wanted US dollars, today NOT THE CASE. They want Rubles or Euro. Or Gryvna in Ukraine. Today the US government wants the Chinese to float there currency, I heard it on NBC power lunch. Dam those broads are hot. Maria Bartrolomo is a doll. She got married last year.

Off Road
08-02-07, 06:49
Christ you guys had it good for TO DAM LONG! I started travelling in 1992 to Ukraine. The canadian dollar was worth only$. 49cents to the Yankee greenback. OUCH did that hurt. Glad to see the US dollar FALL. It only took 31 years. After I paid the ursury bank charge exchange rate I was paying almost 2 canadian for 1 US dollar. My My My today its worth roughly $. 96 cents to buy 1 US dollar. Hopefully it will be at par in the next 6 months. US economists predict it to be at par. In the EE countries then every body wanted US dollars, today NOT THE CASE. They want Rubles or Euro. Or Gryvna in Ukraine. Today the US government wants the Chinese to float there currency, I heard it on NBC power lunch. Dam those broads are hot. Maria Bartrolomo is a doll. She got married last year.
If you want the Canadian dollar equal to the US Dollar, you should be crying too!!
I was more crying the stock market was down, rather than the dollar.

Exec Talent
08-02-07, 07:54
I compared the DJIA vs Real.. interesting that they mirror each other. DJ up, Real down.. This is a 6 month view. Personally I would prefer the DJ up and Dollar down.

I pointed this out awhile back trying to help a few people out and Rio Bob was quick to set me straight! LOL!

SanJoseFan
08-02-07, 09:56
I to am very intrested in the vagueties of the threee currencies. I am planning on coming to Brazil in November. I work for a bank in Canada and even with a break on exchange rates for employees the best rate I saw today was 1.64 to 1(ouch and ouch) Obviously with the US dollar so close to even with the Canadian Dollar there shouldnt be that much of a spread in the Canadian versus the Real.

My question therefore is this is there a place (or places n Brazil that trade will exchange Canadian dollars, I know it is not a universally excpeted currency worldwide). I will be in Copa staying at the Hotel Atlantico Copacabana.

Giggity
08-02-07, 13:27
I compared the DJIA vs Real.. interesting that they mirror each other. DJ up, Real down.. This is a 6 month view. Personally I would prefer the DJ up and Dollar down.
That tells me that the DJIA increases have more to do with the increasing money supply than with any real increases in productivity. Illusory economic growth is fun! I wonder if there exists a free service that will show stock indices such as the DJIA scaled in terms of foreign currencies... my guess is that it would be roughly flat for the past few years.

George90
08-02-07, 14:08
That tells me that the DJIA increases have more to do with the increasing money supply than with any real increases in productivity. Illusory economic growth is fun! I wonder if there exists a free service that will show stock indices such as the DJIA scaled in terms of foreign currencies... my guess is that it would be roughly flat for the past few years.

You may have a point, G. The housing market in the US is following money supply growth. After 9/11, Greenspan flooded the US economy with money and house prices skyrocketed. As soon as he, and now Bernanke, reigned in that money, the housing market tanked! The real value of a home to its owners never changed much, just the amount of money available to chase homes changed.

Almotu
08-02-07, 16:29
My question therefore is this is there a place (or places n Brazil that trade will exchange Canadian dollars, I know it is not a universally excpeted currency worldwide). I will be in Copa staying at the Hotel Atlantico Copacabana.Personally, I would not bring any currency with you. A) I don't think many cambios will exchange Canadian. B) You are better off using your ATM card to pull out the Reals you need.

Off Road
08-02-07, 20:24
My question therefore is this is there a place (or places n Brazil that trade will exchange Canadian dollars, I know it is not a universally excpeted currency worldwide). I will be in Copa staying at the Hotel Atlantico Copacabana.
I agree with Almotu, only bring a little cash if you have to, convert to USD in Canada, then you will have enough for a taxi in case of ATM failure at airport.Taxis will take USD. Then use your ATM card to pull out cash.

AMEX at Copacabana Palace will probably exchange any bills for you. I can check when I walk by there next time.

Rio Bob
08-03-07, 02:31
I pointed this out awhile back trying to help a few people out and Rio Bob was quick to set me straight! LOL!

I can see the chart and the chart shows the strength of the Dow and the strength of the Real compared to the dollar. They may be happening now at the same time but how are they related?

Can you predict how many Reais you can buy with dollars by the strength of the DOW? If so tell me then the relationship and why because I don't know.


Maybe the relationship is this: The DOW is made up of mostly multinational companies. Multinational companies are having record profits today becasue the dollar is weak and multinational companies make more dollars when the foreign currency is converted back into the weak dollar. As a result of this investors buy these stocks because they look cheap. As a result the DOW moves up as well as other large cap multinational companies. So yes the weak dollar may have something to do with the movement of the DOW. The Real is unusually strong against the dollar now which could have happened even if the dollar was not weak against other currencies. The dollar could have stayed the same against other currencies in the past 3 years and still been weak compared to the Real now especially because 5 to 6 years ago the Real was so weak (4:1, today 1.8:1 that is a 55% devaluation, what other currency has the dollar had a 55% reduction in buying power? ) where as other currencies at that time may not have been as weak.

Another explanation of the strong Real can be from this excerpt below which tells you why the Real is strong, it says nothing about the DOW and I have never seen that relationship mentioned anywhere except by you and I just disagreed with it.



There's a clear bias for the central bank to lower interest rates this year, which I hope will drop to a level of those in rich countries in the future,'' Lula said.
He pledged not to interfere in the workings of the central bank's rate-setting committee. Brazil's 12.5 percent benchmark overnight lending rate, one of the highest in the world, has also spurred the real's rally by luring investment to the country's fixed-income market even after 15 consecutive cuts to a record low, down from a high of 19.75 percent in September 2005.

Off Road
08-03-07, 05:38
I just found it interesting looking at the dow vs real, did not mean to start a in depth discussion of economics.
What about the price of pussy? I recall 5 or 6 years ago paying $100 US dollars for an all night, in Sao Paulo. That probably would have been R$400. Today I would pay R$200 for all night, which is also $100, but in Rio.. so.. not sure what this means. I guess $100 dollars is what my typical spend would be.
Now, for sure, you cannot find an all night deal in the USA, say Vegas, for $100. Not even close.

Rio Bob
08-03-07, 06:15
I just found it interesting looking at the dow vs real, did not mean to start a in depth discussion of economics.
What about the price of pussy? I recall 5 or 6 years ago paying $100 US dollars for an all night, in Sao Paulo. That probably would have been R$400. Today I would pay R$200 for all night, which is also $100, but in Rio.. so.. not sure what this means. I guess $100 dollars is what my typical spend would be.
Now, for sure, you cannot find an all night deal in the USA, say Vegas, for $100. Not even close.

I think what it means is that 5 or 6 years ago we had more free reais in our pocket, we were all last of the big time spenders. Sure $100 is not bad at all by American standards to have a good all nighter then and now. The only difference is that today $100 only buys you 180 reais so its a tougher game getting something nice at that price, it's very tight. In the USA it would cost you much more than that just to have a freebee and you still wouldn't be guaranteed.

Superman79
08-03-07, 16:22
Its going to be tough to find another Brazil to monger at. Costa Rica is ok and Argentina sucks ass. I hear Praque is good, but the euro exchange probably isn't much better than the real. Jackson needs to start a new forum: "Mongering destinations like Brazil"Forget Costa Rica, just as expensive and not as much GFE. Europe, too expensive. If you like asians, I just came back from Thailand and in Pattaya, it is 500 baht or $15 for short time and 1000 baht $30 for long time. The don't have the same bodies as brazil but the GFE is almost better than Rio.

I hear the Dominican (Sosua in particular) is in the same price range and the girls are just like Rio. I am going to try the Dominican if this dollar doesn't get right. These ho's in Rio need to accept my hard bargain of are$150 all night because now I'm really not budging. A few months back I was pushing R80 for ST and was getting that.

D

Jazzy Daddy
08-04-07, 07:01
It's accepted wisdom that the United States, despite recent problems, is still the strongest growth locomotive for the world economy, the pillar of the global system. What if we were to discover that, instead of being the pillar, that the United States was, in fact, the heart of a dysfunctional economic system, which is spreading instability, unemployment, and depression globally?

No other nation on earth comes near to the commanding US military superiority in smart bombs, military IT, or in sheer force capabilities. The US position in the world since 1945, and especially since 1971, has rested on two pillars, however: The superiority of the US military over all, and, the role of the dollar as world reserve currency. That dollar is the Achilles heel of American hegemony today.

In my view, the world has entered a new, highly dangerous phase since the collapse of the US stock market bubble in 2001. I am speaking about the unsustainable basis of the very Dollar System itself. What is that Dollar System?

How the Dollar System works

After 1945, the US emerged from war with the world's gold reserves, the largest industrial base, and a surplus of dollars backed by gold. In the 1950's into the 1960's Cold War, the US could afford to be generous to key allies such as Germany and Japan, to allow the economies of Asia and Western Europe to flourish as a counter to communism. By opening the US to imports from Japan and West Germany, a stability was reached. More importantly, from pure US self-interest, a tight trade area was built which worked also to the advantage of the US.

That held until the late 1960's, when the costly Vietnam war led to a drain of US gold reserves. By 1968 the drain had reached crisis levels, as foreign central banks holding dollars feared the US deficits would make their dollars worthless, and preferred real gold instead.

In August 1971, Nixon finally broke the Bretton Woods agreement, and refused to redeem dollars for gold. He had not enough gold to give. That turn opened a most remarkable phase of world economic history. After 1971 the dollar was fixed not to an ounce of gold, something measurable. It was fixed only to the printing press of the Treasury and Federal Reserve.

The dollar became a political currency—do you have "confidence" in the US as the defender of the Free World? At first Washington did not appreciate what a weapon it had created after it broke from gold. It acted out of necessity, as its gold reserves had got dangerously low. It used its role as the pillar of NATO and free world security to demand allies continue to accept its dollars as before.

Currencies floated up and down against the dollar. Financial markets were slowly deregulated. Controls were lifted. Offshore banking was allowed, with unregulated hedge funds and financial derivatives. All these changes originated from Washington, in coordination with New York banks.

The dollar debt paradox

What soon became clear to US Treasury and Federal Reserve circles after 1971, was that they could exert more global influence via debt, US Treasury debt, than they ever did by running trade surpluses. One man's debt is the other's credit. Because all key commodities, above all, oil, were traded globally in dollars, demand for dollars would continue, even if the US created more dollars than its own economy justified.

Soon, its trade partners held so many dollars that they feared to create a dollar crisis. Instead, they systematically inflated, and actually weakened their own economies to support the Dollar System, fearing a global collapse. The first shock came with the 1973 increase in oil by 400%. Germany, Japan and the world was devastated, unemployment soared. The dollar gained.

This Dollar System is the real source of a global inflation which we have witnessed in Europe and worldwide since 1971. In the years between 1945 and 1965, total supply of dollars grew a total of only some 55%. Those were the golden years of low inflation and stable growth. After Nixon's break with gold, dollars expanded by more than 2,000% between 1970 and 2001!

The dollar is still the only global reserve currency. This means other central banks must hold dollars as reserve to guarantee against currency crises, to back their export trade, to finance oil imports and such. Today, some 67% of all central bank reserves are dollars. Gold is but a tiny share now, and Euros only about 15%. Until creation of the Euro, there was not even a theoretical rival to the dollar reserve currency role.

What is little understood, is how the role of US trade deficits and the Dollar System are connected. The United States has followed a deliberate policy of trade deficits and budget deficits for most of the past two decades, so-called benign neglect, in effect, to lock the rest of the world into dependence on a US money system. So long as the world accepts US dollars as money value, the US enjoys unique advantage as the sole printer of those dollars. The trick is to get the world to accept. The history of the past 30 years is about how this was done, using WTO, IMF, World Bank and George Soros to name a few.

What has evolved is a mechanism more effective than any the British Empire had with India and its colonies under the Gold Standard. So long as the US is the sole military superpower, the world will continue to accept inflated US dollars as payment for its goods. Developing countries like Argentina or Congo or Zambia are forced to get dollars to get the IMF seal of approval. Industrial trading nations are forced to earn dollars to defend their own currencies. The total effect of US financial and political and trade policy has been to maintain the unique role of the dollar in the world economy. It is no accident that the greatest financial center in the world is New York. It's the core of the global Dollar System.

It works so: A German company, say BMW, gets dollars for its car sales in the USA. It turns the dollars over to the Bundesbank or ECB in exchange for Marks or Euros it can use.

The German central bank thus builds up its dollar currency reserves. Since the oil shocks of the 1970's, the need to have dollars to import oil became national security policy for most countries, Germany included. Boosting dollar exports was a national goal. But since the Bundesbank no longer could get gold for their dollars, the issue became what to do with the mountain of dollars their trade earned. They decided to at least earn an interest rate by buying safe, secure US Treasury bonds. So long as the US had a large Budget deficit, there were plenty of bonds to buy.

Today, most foreign central banks hold US Treasury bonds or similar US government assets as their "currency reserves." They in fact hold an estimated $1 trillion to $1.5 trillion of US Government debt. Here is the devil of the system. In effect, the US economy is addicted to foreign borrowing, like a drug addict. It is able to enjoy a far higher living standard than were it to have to use its own savings to finance its consumption. America lives off the borrowed money of the rest of the world in the Dollar System. In effect, the German workers at BMW build the cars and give it away to Americans for free, when the central bank uses the dollars to buy US bonds.

Today, the US trade deficit runs at an unbelievable $500 billion, and the dollar does not collapse. Why? In May and June alone, the Bank of China and Bank of Japan bought $100 billion of US Treasury and other government debt! Even when the value of those bonds was falling. They did it to save their exports by manipulating the Yen to dollar to prevent a rising yen.

Because the world payments system, and most importantly, the world capital markets---stocks, bonds, derivatives—are dollar markets, the dollar overwhelms all others. The European Central Bank could offer an alternative. So far it does not. It only reacts to a dollar world. German banks destroy the German economy as they rush to imitate US banks. The Dollar System is destroying the German industrial base. German national economic policy as well as Bundesbank and now ECB policy is oriented on the far smaller export sector, to maximize trade surplus dollars, or to the big banks, to attract as many dollars as possible.

China plays a key role today

The biggest dollar surplus country today is China. Globalization is in fact just a code word for dollarization. The Chinese Yuan is fixed to the dollar. The US is being flooded with cheap Chinese goods, often outsourced by US multinationals. China today has the largest trade surplus with the US, more than $100 billion a year. Japan is second with $70 billion. Canada with $48 bn, Mexico with $37 bn and Germany with $36 bn make the top 5 trade deficit countries, a total deficit of almost $300 billion of the colossal $480 deficit in 2002. This gives a clue to US foreign policy priorities.

What is perverse about this system is the fact that Washington has succeeded in getting foreign surplus countries to invest their own savings, to be a creditor to the US, buying Treasury bonds. Asian countries like Indonesia export capital to the US instead of the reverse!

The US Treasury and Greenspan are certain that its trade partners will be forced to always buy more US debt to prevent the global monetary system from collapsing, as nearly happened in 1998 with the Russia default and the LTCM hedge fund crisis.

Washington Treasury officials have learned to be masters at the psychology of "monetary chicken." Treasury Secretary Snow used an implied threat of letting the dollar collapse, after the Iraq war, to warn Germany about the risk of trying to be too close to France with the Euro. Some weeks after the dollar had fallen sharply, and German export industry was screaming pain, Snow reversed his stand and the dollar stabilized. Now the dollar again rises as foreign money flows back in.

But debt must be repaid you say? Does it ever? The central banks just keep buying new debt, rolling the old debts over. The debts of the USA are the assets of the rest of the world, the basis of their credit systems!

The second key to the Dollar System deals with poorer debtor countries. Here the US influence is strategic in the key multilateral institutions of finance—World Bank and IMF, WTO. Entire countries like Argentina or Brazil or Indonesia are forced to devalue currencies relative to the dollar, privatize key state industries, cut subsidies, all to repay dollar debt, most often to private US banks. When they resist selling off their best assets, tehy are charged with being corrupt. The growth of offshore money centers in the Caribbean, a key part of the drug money cycle, is also a direct consequence of the decisions in Washington in the 1970's and after, to deregulate financial markets and banks. As long as the dollar is the global currency, the US gains, or at least its big banks.

This is a kind of Dollar Imperialism more slick than anything the British Empire even dreamed of. It is a part of the current America "Empire" debate no one mentions. Instead of the US investing in colonies like England to earn profits on the trade, the money comes from the client states into the US economy. The problem is that Washington has allowed this perverse system to get out of all control to the point today it threatens to bring the entire world to the point of collapse. Had the US instead promoted long-term policy of investing in the economic growth and self-sufficiency of countries like Argentina or Congo, rather than bleeding them in repayment of unpayable dollar debts, the world would look far less unstable today.

The internal debt bomb in the USA

The question is if the Dollar System is reaching its real limits? The Dollar System for the past 30 years has been built on growing dollar debt. What if the rest of the world decides it no longer wants to give its savings to the US Treasury to finance its deficits or its wars? What if China decides that it should diversify its risk by buying Euro debt? Or Japan or Russia? That day may come sooner than we think.

In addition to colossal debts to the rest of the world, the US internal debt burdens have reached alarming levels in the past three decades, especially the past decade.

The total US debt—public and private—has more than doubled since 1995. It is now officially over $34 trillion. It was just over $16 trillion in 1995, and "only" $7 trillion in 1985. Most alarming it has grown faster than income to service it, or GDP.

Since the Asia crisis in 1998, the US debt situation has exploded. The heart of the debt explosion is in US private consumer debt. And the heart of consumer debt is the home mortgage debt growth, helped by two semi-government agencies—Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Since 2001 and the collapse of the stock market wealth, the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates 13 times to a 45 year low.

US Households took on new home mortgage debt in the first six months this year at an annual rate of $700 billion, double the debt growth in 2000. Total mortgage debt in the US totals just under $5 trillion, double the debt in 1996. It has grown far faster than personal income per capita. That is larger than the GDP of most nations.

The aim has been to inflate a housing speculation market in order to keep the economy rolling. The cost has been staggering new debt levels. Because it was created with record low interest rates, when rates again rise, millions of Americans will suddenly find the burden impossible, especially as unemployment rises. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac combined guarantee $3 trillion in US home mortgages. The US banking system holds much of their bonds. When the housing bubble collapses, a new banking crisis is pre-programmed as well, with JP Morgan/Chase, Wells Fargo and BankAmerica the worst.

The US economy has only managed to avoid a severe recession since the collapse of the stock market three years ago, by a record amount of consumer borrowing. "Shop until you drop" is a popular American expression. The Federal Reserve has pushed interest rates down to 1%, the lowest in 45 years. The aim is to keep the cost of the debt low such that families continue to borrow, in order to spend! Some 76% of the US economy GDP today is consumer spending. And most of that is tied to a record boom in home buying.

But the rate of new debt growth among families is rapidly reaching alarm levels, while the overall manufacturing economy continues to stagnate or decline. Today US factories only operate at 74% of capacity, near historic lows. With so much unused capacity, there is little chance companies will soon invest in new factories or jobs. They are going to China.

So Greenspan continues to rely on foreign money to prop up his consumer debt bubble, at low interest rates. Were foreign money to stop propping the US economy, now at some $2.5 billion daily, the Federal Reserve would be forced to raise its interest rates to make dollar investments more attractive. Higher rates would trigger a crisis in consumer debt, mortgage defaults, credit card and car loan failures. Higher rates would plunge the US economy into a depression. This may be about to happen, despite poor George Bush's desires to get reelected.

There is a limit how much debt US families can pay to keep the economy afloat.

There is no US recovery, merely a debt spending boom based on this home buying explosion.

Total US household debt reached a high in June of $8.7 trillion, double that of 1994. Families are agreeing to longer debt payments for basics like homes or cars. The length of new car loans now averages 60.7 months, and the amount of car debt financed increased to $27,920, and the average new home costs $243,000.

With rapidly rising unemployment and a real economy that is not growing, at some point there will come a violent reality clash, as the market for home lending reaches its limit. At that point the danger is the consumer will stop buying, and the manufacturing economy will not be able to create new jobs and a real recovery. The jobs have gone to China!

We might already be at or very close to that point. In the past six weeks, US interest rates have risen sharply, as owners of US bonds have started to sell in panic levels, fearing the bonanza in real estate may be over, and trying to get out with some profit before bond prices collapse. The European Central Bank is advising member banks to not buy any more US Freddie Mac or government agency debts.

The problem is this process of creating debt, domestic and foreign, to keep the US economy going, has gathered so much momentum it risks destroying what remains of the US manufacturing and technology base. Henry Kissinger warned in a conference of Computer Associates in June, that the US risked destroying its own middle class, and its key strategic industries via outsourcing to China, India and other cheap areas. Today only 11% of the total workforce is in manufacturing. In 1970, it was 30%. Post-industrial America is a bubble economy about to pop.

Fed chief Greenspan even warned China about the rate of its trade increase with the US, pressuring China to upvalue the Renminbi to make its goods less competitive in dollar markets, and slow the job loss. But this is dangerous. China holds $340 billion in US Treasury bonds and other reserve assets. The US needs the Chinese dollar savings to finance its soaring deficits.

It is caught in its own web: American jobs, hi-tech jobs as well as factory jobs, are vanishing permanently as US factories source to China, India or other cheap areas. If Washington pressures China and others to cut back exports they risk to kill the goose that lays golden dollar eggs. Who will buy that growing Government dollar debt? Private bond traders are desperately trying to sell their US bonds. Germany can only buy so much dollar debt, also Japan.

The US waged war in Iraq not out of fundamental strength but fundamental weakness. It is economic weakness however, not military.

Oil and food, and money as strategic weapon

The fundamental reason for the Iraq war, beyond agendas of Richard Perle or other hawks, is hence, strategic in my view. US economic hegemony in this distorted Dollar System increasingly depends on a rising rate of support from the rest of the world to sustain US debt levels. Like the old Sorcerers' Apprentice. But the point is past where this can be gotten easily. That is the real significance of the US shift to unilateralism and military threats as foreign policy. Europe can no longer be given a piece of the Third World debt pie as in the 1980's. Japan has to cough up even more, as does China now.

Even ordinary Americans have to give up their pension promises. If the Dollar System is to remain hegemonic, it must find major new sources of support. That spells likely destabilization and wars for the rest of the world.

Could it be that in this context, some long-term thinkers in Washington and elsewhere have devised a strategy of establishing US military control of all strategic sources of oil for the one potential power rival, Eurasia, from Brussels to Berlin to Moscow and Beijing? The dollar vulnerability and debt problems are well known in leading policy circles.

As Henry Kissinger once noted, "Who controls the food supply controls the people; who controls the energy can control whole continents; who controls money can control the world."


F. William Engdahl is a Global Research Contributing Editor and author of the book, ‘A Century of War: Anglo-American Oil Politics and the New World Order,’ Pluto Press Ltd. He has completed a soon-to-be published book on GMO titled, ‘Seeds of Destruction: The Hidden Political Agenda Behind GMO’. He may be contacted through his website, www.engdahl.oilgeopolitics.net.

George90
08-04-07, 13:36
F. William Engdahl is a Global Research Contributing Editor and author of the book, ‘A Century of War: Anglo-American Oil Politics and the New World Order,’ Pluto Press Ltd. He has completed a soon-to-be published book on GMO titled, ‘Seeds of Destruction: The Hidden Political Agenda Behind GMO’. He may be contacted through his website, www.engdahl.oilgeopolitics.net.

This guy's education and work experience are not stated. This is what makes me leary about where economics and politics intersect. There are other guys who say the opposite of this guy, and others who say something else all together.

I prefer to rely on professional academics for this stuff, such as Paul Krugman of Princeton University. He writes frequently about international/global economic issues. He has written a textbook on international economics.

Lorenzo
08-05-07, 04:26
zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz........

Doubt98
08-05-07, 22:54
The long report was interesting. But it leaves a few things off the table that are extremely important. US bonds are sold at auction. Between willing buyers and willing sellers. If such a panic existed then the prices would fluctuate wildly. Also, the article was written when rates were historically low and predicted that a rise would plunge us into a "depression" not just a recession. Well, it happened. Every sane person welcomed the rise in rates. A 1% rate is not healthy for the economy, that was the scary point. Today with mortgage rates closer to 7% it shows we are in a more healthy position. And for the housing "crisis" everyone knew there was a bubble, all things have to change. What is amazing is how smoothly the transaction really is and actually only limited to a few areas that had seen wild gains and was fueled by speculation. I feel sorry for those that purchased sub-prime mortgage backed bonds but it is actually just a small fraction of the mortgages that are out there. The default rate on sub-prime is close to 3.75%, the default rate on Alt-A the status just below prime is 3.25% where it always was. I am surprised that there aren't more sub-prime defaults.........my hands hurt and I could go on for hours......................................................the point is: we are the economy of the world, and it is not because of some scheme, it is because it is as transparent as possible and with limited governmental interference. Ask yourself this would you rather buy a US bond or a Venezuelan bond at the same interest rate?

David 35
08-06-07, 00:00
Simple truth is that we are tourists. They most likely think that we are spend thrifts not ordinary people.

The average monthly wage is somewhere 300R $500 $R for decent job holders. If you look at the unemployment, gap between haves and have nots we should not pay more than 100R$ for allnight for very good girl.

We have money so we monger, they do not have it so they rent the pussy. If they have money why the hell they are going to rent it by the way.

We are fools to pay such large amount. In NYC you need to pay 200$ for crappy short time but we earn more here so we can pay that amount. Look at the locals monger and what they pay for.

For example when I was in Sri Lanka I payed 30$ for ST and same girl charged tourists 100$ for short time! In front of me!

I would never pay that kind of money to local girl unless she is a model.

That is my simple equation of things

Happy hunting

Colombia

George90
08-06-07, 10:55
... the point is: we are the economy of the world, and it is not because of some scheme, it is because it is as transparent as possible and with limited governmental interference. Ask yourself this would you rather buy a US bond or a Venezuelan bond at the same interest rate?

While you made very good points, I think choosing Venezuela for comparison is disengenuous. Since this is the Brazil thread, would you rather buy US bonds or Brazilian bonds at the same rate, given the appreciation of the real over the US dollar?

Rio Bob
08-07-07, 01:56
Brazilian Economists Raise 12-Month CPI Forecast (Update1)

By Katia Cortes

Aug. 6 (Bloomberg) -- Brazilian economists raised their forecast for 12-month inflation on expectations food prices will climb further.

Economists raised their 12-month inflation forecast to 3.66 percent from 3.62 percent a week earlier and increased their forecast for inflation this year to 3.75 percent from 3.72 percent, according to the median estimate of about 100 economists in an Aug. 3 central bank survey published today. The central bank targets inflation of 4.5 percent.

``Colder-than-expected weather is hurting crops and increasing prices of fruits and vegetables,'' said Solange Srour, chief economist at Mellon Global Investment Brazil, in a telephone interview from Rio de Janeiro.

The increase in food prices together with rising domestic demand may force central bankers to slow the pace of interest rate cuts to a quarter percentage point at their next meeting, Srour said. The central bank cut the benchmark interest rate half a percentage point to a record low of 11.5 percent in July from 19.75 percent in September 2005.

The economists also raised their forecast for economic growth for this year to 4.51 percent from 4.50 percent a week earlier. They expect the currency will strengthen to 1.87 real against the U.S. dollar by the end of the year from an earlier forecast of 1.89 real per U.S. dollar.

To contact the reporter on this story: Katia Cortes in Brasilia at at kcortes@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: August 6, 2007 12:17 EDT

Doubt98
08-07-07, 03:07
Thanks George90, I missed that one completely. But, to answer your question, at the same interest rate I would definitely pick the US bond over the Brazil. The rise in value of their currency is good for them but over the long run the dollar is much more stable. A bond by definition is a long term instrument. In the short term I believe there is a very good chance of making money in ALL the Latin markets, not just Brazil, which is one of the best. Wild fluctuations are common in their currencies. We are just in the midst of one that is heading in a favorable direction for them.

Fhm100
08-08-07, 06:26
I'm not sure if this is the right thread to post this question. I'm curious to whether I should bring cash and exchange to Real, or use Visa/Amex to withdraw Real from ATM. Which one would gives me a better rate?

I hate to bring a large amount of cash with me and have to leave it in the room while I'm out.

Thanks

Sandman0011
08-08-07, 20:44
Much less expensive and easier to use!


I'm not sure if this is the right thread to post this question. I'm curious to whether I should bring cash and exchange to Real, or use Visa/Amex to withdraw Real from ATM. Which one would gives me a better rate?

I hate to bring a large amount of cash with me and have to leave it in the room while I'm out.

Thanks

SanJoseFan
08-09-07, 00:40
Thanks to those who repsonded with my questions reguarding Canadian Dollars this week. A lot of suspisions were confirmed, one thing I was reluctant to do given all the crime info was bring a lot of currency, so using ATM machines will eliminate that problem. The problem that will remain and I will have to live with it I guess is that I'm still trapped using my bank's rate of exchange of Canadian Dollars to the Real. Oh well not much choice I suppose.

Sandman0011
08-09-07, 13:56
Your banks rate of exchange will be better than what you could get from a cambio.


Thanks to those who repsonded with my questions reguarding Canadian Dollars this week. A lot of suspisions were confirmed, one thing I was reluctant to do given all the crime info was bring a lot of currency, so using ATM machines will eliminate that problem. The problem that will remain and I will have to live with it I guess is that I'm still trapped using my bank's rate of exchange of Canadian Dollars to the Real. Oh well not much choice I suppose.

Amerioca
08-10-07, 19:04
I'm not sure if this is the right thread to post this question. I'm curious to whether I should bring cash and exchange to Real, or use Visa/Amex to withdraw Real from ATM. Which one would gives me a better rate?

I hate to bring a large amount of cash with me and have to leave it in the room while I'm out.

Thanks

Like Sandman has said, ATM is the usual route to go. Pref. a bank that has branches in Brasil...eg., HSBC, Citi, etc. With such, you get a good exchange rate and no fees.

Also, if you carry the AMEX Platinum or Centurion, consider AMEX Travelers Cheques. You receive a better exchange rate than what is posted in their office, which is for all other AMEX members and non-members. If I remember correctly, the rate received was competitive with cambios. Furthermore, there are no fees. There is an office in the Copacabana Palace. Just be careful walking out of that place with the monies.

Cash money, for exchange purposes, bring crisp and clean Benjis. Not 10s, not 20s, or even $50s. The cambios give you a cent or two more for crisp clean $100 bills. This has been my experience, for the last several years.

Java Man
08-10-07, 20:54
US Citibank charges a fee for use of Brazil Citibank ATM. Fee depends on amount withdrawn.

Amerioca
08-11-07, 00:57
US Citibank charges a fee for use of Brazil Citibank ATM. Fee depends on amount withdrawn.

Ok, thanks for the correction on Citi.

I use an HSBC acct. for Brasil. No fees. It was easy enough to open online. Took about two weeks for the ATM card.

Houston Player
08-11-07, 03:18
I opened an account with Capital One because they advertised no ATM fees from anywhere in the world. Then I find out that they only allow withdrawals of $400/day. What a waste.

Does anyone know the daily limits on these other banks reccommended?

BTW, I haven't tested the no ATM fees yet but will report back after I do.

Shafty 7
08-11-07, 06:41
$400 a day is the norm for debit cards.

Houston Player
08-12-07, 05:15
Well Shafty maybe you are right , I dunno. However my small little local bank I think it is Regions now (it's been bought a couple times lately) lets me withdraw $500/day. So I thought maybe the major banks would let you have more.

To me it is a pain to have to go to the ATM almost every day. In Copa it's not a problem where there are ATMs everywhere but in some other cities the ATM is a taxi ride away.

Off Road
08-12-07, 13:24
Thanks to those who repsonded with my questions reguarding Canadian Dollars this week. A lot of suspisions were confirmed, one thing I was reluctant to do given all the crime info was bring a lot of currency, so using ATM machines will eliminate that problem. The problem that will remain and I will have to live with it I guess is that I'm still trapped using my bank's rate of exchange of Canadian Dollars to the Real. Oh well not much choice I suppose.
I did stop by the AMEX office in the Copacabana Palace Hotel, they will exchange canadian dollars if you need them to,

Off Road
08-12-07, 13:26
US Citibank charges a fee for use of Brazil Citibank ATM. Fee depends on amount withdrawn.
I do not have any fees with Citibank when using the Citibank ATM. I can withdraw R$2000 a day, more if I call and get a temporary increase. I do business here and it is way more easier to use the ATM than wire transfer.

Rio Bob
08-12-07, 14:07
I did stop by the AMEX office in the Copacabana Palace Hotel, they will exchange canadian dollars if you need them to,

Did you happen to notice what the exchange rate was for traveler’s cheques? I seem to remember that if you have American Express travelers cheques and you exchange them in that office they gave you the official exchange rate of that day the same rate as cash that you would get from any cambio. Most regular cambios give you much less for travellers cheques but they might be worth using if you can get the same as cash.

Delecti
08-12-07, 15:46
I opened an account with Capital One because they advertised no ATM fees from anywhere in the world. Then I find out that they only allow withdrawals of $400/day. What a waste.

Does anyone know the daily limits on these other banks reccommended?

BTW, I haven't tested the no ATM fees yet but will report back after I do.Although Capitol won't charge a fee to use your card in Rio, the ATM company that you use, ie: Citibank will still charge a fee. Capitol can't do anything about that fee.

Johan
08-12-07, 18:49
HSBC does charge a fee for using their own (HSBC) ATM in Brasil or any countries outside of U.S., the fee is 1% of the amount you withdraw. However, it still beats all other options as most banks charge 3% or a lumpsum transaction fees.

I am not a customer of Citibank and cannot verify if Citibank truly does not charge an foreign transaction fee even in using their own ATM machines in Brasil. You can check this by calling Citibank and ask to talk to the Manager as most front line customer service agent does not know much. I doubt Citibank does not charge you any fees as at the end of the day, Citibank's Forex desk has to make money when they trade your US$ to R$, the question is whether the bank will eat this fee and not charge you. Citibank did not have a history of eating fees.

Capital One indeed does not charge any Foreign Transaction fees because in order to gain market share, they truly "eat" the fee on behalf of the customer. However, since Capital One does not have any ATM outside of US and many US States, when you use an ATM, it probably is not a Capital One ATM and that will cost you fees paying to the bank which maintains the ATM. How much is the fee? It depends on the bank which operates the ATM.

What is so confusing is, the foreign transaction fee is not a line item dsclosed in your bank statement and that not many agents in the bank is educated with this. You really have to "deep dive" and "trial by error" to learn this.

Ok, thanks for the correction on Citi.

I use an HSBC acct. for Brasil. No fees. It was easy enough to open online. Took about two weeks for the ATM card.

Almotu
08-13-07, 03:08
I think some of the banks hide the additional transaction fee within their exchange rates. There is not much you can do when you have to get cash out in a foreign country.

I am based in NYC and on my last trip I used my bank card from Commerce Bank and when I returned there were no ATM fees on my statement. Just the amount that I withdrew in $USD. The exchange rate seemed to be within acceptable levels.

Off Road
08-13-07, 19:04
I am not a customer of Citibank and cannot verify if Citibank truly does not charge an foreign transaction fee even in using their own ATM machines in Brasil.
I am 100% POSITIVE, I do not get charged any fee for using the Citibank ATM on NS Copacabana (both locations) when using my USA Citibank card.
It might be my type of checking account, or my history of business with them, but I do not get charged a fee and the exchage rate is identical to my buddyies withdrawing at the same time with non Citi cards, same machine.

Today was 1.94 at the ATM, no fee. I look at my statments at the end of the month, no foriegn transaction fees, no ATM fees, no hidden 1%. Yahoo currency converter is also showing 1.94.

I can only speak from my personal experience and observations.

I live here in Rio, do not have a bank account here (yet), so use the ATM to pull money out to pay my bills all the time.

Java Man
08-15-07, 20:24
The Dollar has risen steadily in the last few days against the Real. Started the day at R2.0160, just checked Xe.com, it's showing R2.02, no wait....now R2.0302! I'm just grateful it's back at R2.

Delaware Guy
08-15-07, 21:51
I am not a Pay Pal card holder but have heard they do not charge any kind of fees either. I am currently exploring my options as well. My current back charges a nominal fee, I think $1. 50, plus I think 1%. It's not much, but in the long run it can add up. Especially since I don't carry much cash at all when I'm traveling, either internationally or here in the US. A guy can get jumped in NYC as readily as Rio.

Java Man
08-16-07, 18:50
The Dollar gained .10 in the last 24hrs. Currently $1 = R2.12. I hope this trend continues.

George90
08-16-07, 20:21
The Dollar gained .10 in the last 24hrs. Currently $1 = R2.12. I hope this trend continues.

The global financial meltdown has a bit to do with it. I am sure the Mattel recalls, the tainted medicine, petfood, and toothpaste have more to do with it. Firms, such as Mattel, that have or use factories in China have said they are moving their sourcing to more reliable places. Chinese firms are likely to see their exports fall over the next several months or at least until China's regulatory agencies VISIBLY get their act together.

In turn, China's purchases of raw materials from places like Brazil can be expected to fall, or at least not grow very much. I think that expectation is causing the real to lose ground.

I am trying to spend Natal and Reveillon in Brazil. I don't mind seeing the real fall some before then.

Alex Deuce
08-16-07, 22:00
The global financial meltdown has a bit to do with it. I am sure the Mattel recalls, the tainted medicine, petfood, and toothpaste have more to do with it. Firms, such as Mattel, that have or use factories in China have said they are moving their sourcing to more reliable places. Chinese firms are likely to see their exports fall over the next several months or at least until China's regulatory agencies VISIBLY get their act together.

In turn, China's purchases of raw materials from places like Brazil can be expected to fall, or at least not grow very much. I think that expectation is causing the real to lose ground.

I am trying to spend Natal and Reveillon in Brazil. I don't mind seeing the real fall some before then.China's problems will only be a momentary blip. Companies are not going to exit a 1.32 billion person market. The foundries are located in China not the USA and that is Billion not Million. Which equates to twice the western markets combined. They have fought, invested and bribed billions of investor funds to get in. China will find, excute or what ever they have to do inorder to let the markets know that they will clean up their standards. The real fall is only temporary (2-4 weeks at best.) Even if companies moved their sourcing, Brazil is one of the few contries that can supply the raw goods needed.

I am tired of reading this guessing! Grab a 12th grade economics book and then post again. Brazil's industry is movinig toward utilizing the raw materials of that country for international sourcing away in tandem with expanded banking centers and away from tourism as a high percentage of their GDP. The demand for educated and able bodied individuals will keep increasing as well as thier GDP and standard of living. Any change away from China as a major trading partner will play havoc on the US Dollar verses ther real. Remember, China is and has consistantly manipulated thier currency lower than the dollar and such the real has fallin in line as it is the basis for trade.

I got a ticket for anyone that wants to take the bet. The real will never go above 1US-2.20BRL in the next 2 years.

Edward M
08-17-07, 01:12
The Dollar has risen steadily in the last few days against the Real. Started the day at R2.0160, just checked Xe.com, it's showing R2.02, no wait....now R2.0302! I'm just grateful it's back at R2.Over the Mendoza line!

Ryjerrob
08-17-07, 05:25
In turn, China's purchases of raw materials from places like Brazil can be expected to fall, or at least not grow very much. I think that expectation is causing the real to lose ground.

I am trying to spend Natal and Reveillon in Brazil. I don't mind seeing the real fall some before then.

I plan on being there also. Every since my first trip I have watched in horror as the dollar has declined. Despite whatever economic indicators you follow, I'm just trying to stay optimistic. Regardless what happens, I'm going for the holidays.

ryjer

Lancer520
08-17-07, 08:36
So in 5 business days we've picked up almost .30 reals on the US dollar. It seems that there is an inverse relationship between the US stock market and the strength of the dollar. This is the best week I've seen the dollar have in a couple of years. I was hoping to just get a flat 2 on my next trip in November but now I'm rooting for 2.30...

Athlete
08-17-07, 16:38
I am 100% POSITIVE, I do not get charged any fee for using the Citibank ATM on NS Copacabana (both locations) when using my USA Citibank card.
It might be my type of checking account, or my history of business with them, but I do not get charged a fee and the exchage rate is identical to my buddyies withdrawing at the same time with non Citi cards, same machine.

Today was 1.94 at the ATM, no fee. I look at my statments at the end of the month, no foriegn transaction fees, no ATM fees, no hidden 1%. Yahoo currency converter is also showing 1.94.

I can only speak from my personal experience and observations.

I live here in Rio, do not have a bank account here (yet), so use the ATM to pull money out to pay my bills all the time.I just found out if one is using any Bank Of America products (atm, credit cards) they get charged a 3% international usage fee!

What are my optrions guys? Paypal cc? Any other co not charge for international usage? I can get for free any amount of travelers checks I want so I was thinking of using those, but then won't the establishment in brazil chrge me a fee to use them? I could also just get say five thousand in brazil currrency from my bank an just bring it there in a money belt. Pay the hotel bill in traveler checks.

Java Man
08-17-07, 21:01
Yesterday morning the Dollar exchanged at R2.12, by the evening it was at R2.09. Today it's down again, currently exchanging at R2.02350.

Athlete:
Travelers Checks get an even lower exchange rate. The exception is American Express traveler's check exchanged at the Am Ex Office at the Copacabana Palace Hotel. Be prepared for long lines and short, inconvenient hours.
Read the previous post about banks and fees, we were on this topic a few days ago.

Alex Deuce
08-17-07, 21:16
Yesterday morning the Dollar exchanged at R2.12, by the evening it was at R2.09. Today it's down again, currently exchanging at R2.02350.

Athlete:

Travelers Checks get an even lower exchange rate. The exception is American Express traveler's check exchanged at the Am Ex Office at the Copacabana Palace Hotel. Be prepared for long lines and short, inconvenient hours.

Read the previous post about banks and fees, we were on this topic a few days ago.Look for it to fall below 2.00 by Monday!

Monger X
08-19-07, 19:07
Look for it to fall below 2.00 by Monday!

It was at 1.88 at GRU at 10:00 this morning.

Tigers787
08-20-07, 17:34
Its easy just remmember, when USA stock market goes down the dollar goes up world wide.

Tiger

Exec Talent
08-21-07, 04:37
Its easy just remmember, when USA stock market goes down the dollar goes up world wide.

Tiger

Actually, I don't. I told you so -- many months ago.

Don't ask guys with serial failed relationships about women and don't ask guys who never made real money about how to make money.

Come to Rio and treat the women well and you will have a good time. Bet that the exchange rate is going to go opposite the US Market and you will make money.

Rio Bob
08-22-07, 23:16
Actually, I don't. I told you so -- many months ago.

Don't ask guys with serial failed relationships about women and don't ask guys who never made real money about how to make money.

Come to Rio and treat the women well and you will have a good time. Bet that the exchange rate is going to go opposite the US Market and you will make money.

Ok so in hindsight this observation is correct, the Dow goes up the dollar goes down, great.

So now what do we do going forward?

Tell us how to play this like you told us how to treat women in Rio?

We can't make money looking back and say you see I was correct, what do we do going forward?

So you are saying, if the Dow returns to the 14000 level then the dollar will only fetch 1.80 real, correct? Which means that we should buy the Real now, right?

Or

The Dow retreats to 12000 then the dollar can potentially fetch 2.25 reals, correct? or better yet the Dow retreats to 8000 and we get 3.5 reals to the dollar like we did when the dow was at 8000 in January 2003.

So what do we do? Do we buy Reals now or do we wait for it to hit 2.25 or 3.5?

Or do we do nothing and sit here watching you pat yourself on the back telling us that your theory is correct after it has happened?

Edward M
08-23-07, 01:04
Its easy just remmember, when USA stock market goes down the dollar goes up world wide.

TigerCan anyone explain why this is? It is counter-intuitive to me. (Sorry but this IS an economics thread.)

Holden Caulfield
08-23-07, 10:17
The law of the land. Interest rates in US go down, dollar goes down. Couple with high prices for commodities it goes down more.

Only way dow goes up is to lower interest rates. Dollar lost huge against most currencies over the last two years. It is going to get much worse.

Look back at this post in a year.

Alex Deuce
08-23-07, 15:38
The law of the land. Interest rates in US go down, dollar goes down. Couple with high prices for commodities it goes down more.

Only way dow goes up is to lower interest rates. Dollar lost huge against most currencies over the last two years. It is going to get much worse.

Look back at this post in a year.Thats a simple analysis to a very complex question. The exchange value of the US dollar is subject to the cost of capital flux when the external markets suspect a weakness in the fundamentals of the US economy. The fundamentals of this economy is that it debt driven not productivity. This paradigm will cease when the US starts to address its debt issues. (Good luck on that happening with any administration)

Hojeobrigado
08-23-07, 21:39
Razil's Real Weakens as Investors Anticipate New Credit Shocks By Adriana Brasileiro Aug. 21 (Bloomberg).- Brazil's currency fell for the seventh time in two weeks as investors anticipated new global credit market shocks, increasing aversion to riskier assets. ''The mood is negative, bets are overall pessimistic, and volatility is out of this world, so I don't see much room for recovery here in Brazil, '' said Gerson de Nobrega, who helps manage 3. 8 billion reais ($1. 9 billion) in assets at Banco Alfa de Investimento SA in Sao Paulo. The real fell 0. 3 percent to 2. 0345 per dollar at 3 p. M. New York time after appreciating as much as 0. 6 percent to 2. 0160 per dollar earlier in the session and falling as much as 1 percent to 2. 0482 to the dollar. Volatility on one-month dollar-real options dropped today to 20. 7 percent after touching 23. 5 percent on Aug. 17, the highest since June 2006. You. S. Senate Banking Committee Chairman Christopher Dodd said today in a news conference that Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke will use ''all of the tools at his disposal'' to bolster financial markets hit by the subprime mortgage crisis. The comments weren't substantial enough to give the market a positive direction because an interest rate cut wasn't specifically mentioned, de Nobrega said. You. S. Stocks reduced some losses on speculation the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates to boost economic growth. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index fell 0. 5 percent to 1, 444. 8, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0. 3 percent to 13, 081. 52. The Bovespa Index of the most-traded stocks on the Sao Paulo exchange rose 1. 1 percent to 49, 730. 79. Brazil's currency has lost about 10. 5 percent since July 23, when defaults in the USA Subprime loan market prompted investors to unload riskier emerging-market assets in favor of safer securities such as USA Treasuries. The yield on the two- year Treasury note has declined to 4. 04 percent from 4. 78 percent during the period. No Dollar Purchases The recent drop in the real has prompted Brazil's central bank to stop buying dollars in the spot market. The central bank didn't enter the foreign exchange market for a fourth straight day yesterday. The bank had purchased dollars daily since July 2006 to curb gains in the real, helping ease losses in manufacturing exporters' profit margins and boosting foreign reserves. Reserves climbed to a record $159 billion on Aug. 14 from $54 billion in April 2006. Brazil's IGP-M general price index rose 0. 59 percent in the first 20 days of August, exceeding a 0. 19 percent increase in the same 20-day period in July, the independent Getulio Vargas Foundation said today. The median forecast of 19 economists surveyed by Bloomberg was for a 0. 51 percent advance. The yield on Brazil's benchmark zero-coupon bonds due in January 2008 fell almost 5 basis points, or 0. 05 percentage point, to 11. 34 percent, according to Banco UBS Pactual SA.

Vlad2005
08-23-07, 21:56
SO what is going to happen in the next few years?Are people from all over the world come to monger in US?:)

Since economics and mongering are connected I would like to hear some more opinions.I am planning a one year trip in eastern europe and coming from the US the US dollar is my major source of funding so.

Alex Deuce
08-24-07, 00:55
SO what is going to happen in the next few years?Are people from all over the world come to monger in US?:)

Since economics and mongering are connected I would like to hear some more opinions.I am planning a one year trip in eastern europe and coming from the US the US dollar is my major source of funding so.The subprime market will be bolstered by an influx of cash from the treasury and reduction in the fed rate to keep the market from crashing. The congressional rules and any bail out will be directed to keep the primary homeowners in their properties. The speculative individuals will be fucked (The individuals that can handle the loss.) This will keep liquidity in the venture markets (which truly drive innovation and productivity).

(In short. They are going to punt it to the next administration)

Look for the dollar and Real to stabilize at 1US to about 1. 85 Real. Look for a gang of regulations on Mortgage Brokers. Look for the congress and states to allow bankruptcy judges to be able to restructure mortgages RATES and TERMS. Look for the Brazil economy to hedge away from the dollar towards the yen. And last but not least, look for that GDP that use to cost you $75. 00US to cost you about $100-110 US.

Just the humble rants of an individual with a Masters in Economics and Pimping.

Brazil Specialist
08-24-07, 05:42
I am 100% POSITIVE, I do not get charged any fee for using the Citibank ATM on NS Copacabana (both locations) when using my USA Citibank card.
It might be my type of checking account, or my history of business with them, but I do not get charged a fee and the exchage rate is identical to my buddyies withdrawing at the same time with non Citi cards, same machine.

Today was 1.94 at the ATM, no fee. I look at my statments at the end of the month, no foriegn transaction fees, no ATM fees, no hidden 1%. Yahoo currency converter is also showing 1.94.

I can only speak from my personal experience and observations.

I live here in Rio, do not have a bank account here (yet), so use the ATM to pull money out to pay my bills all the time.

You live in Rio? did we meet already? Send me your contact info!!

Sadly, Citibank dupes all their customers. They pay a crappy exchange rate.

I used to go to Citibank with my US Citibank card, and with another US bank card. Citibank always paid a 2-3 cent lower exchange rate for their OWN card than they paid for the the other bank card. So that is about the same as if they charged a few dollars fee.

I tried it many times. Gave up on Citibank ever since, so I cannot tell if anything has changed.

Giggity
08-24-07, 06:30
SO what is going to happen in the next few years?Are people from all over the world come to monger in US?:)

Since economics and mongering are connected I would like to hear some more opinions.I am planning a one year trip in eastern europe and coming from the US the US dollar is my major source of funding so.
a) Don't save your dollars right now. I'm hardly an expert financial planner, but with the Fed creating so many dollars out of thin air to buy up the exponentially increasing federal debt, and now the debt of irresponsible home buyers, the value of the dollar as compared to foreign currencies has really nowhere to go but down (unless foreign central banks manage to inflate their currencies even faster, which is certainly possible). Gold and silver are often good ways to hedge against currency fluctuations, but do look closer into that before basing your investments on that idea. In essence, I have no useful advice... just a handful of introductory economic theory.

b) As far as foreigners coming into the US to monger as the boom recedes, foreigners have always come into the US to monger (see $1000/hr Las Vegas chicks surrounded by Asian businessmen). All that could accomplish is to make more inaccessible that which is already inaccessible.

Giggity
08-24-07, 06:37
Look for the dollar and Real to stabilize at 1US to about 1. 85 Real.

...

Just the humble rants of an individual with a Masters in Economics and Pimping.
Being a sophomore Economics major who just finished Basic Macroeconomics, I'm curious as to where one derives a future rate for the BRL like you did. Will I learn that later in International Finance? I'm really enjoying this field.

(Ha! An M.A. in Pimpology... a university offering that would get more applications for the first year the offered it than all other graduate programs in the country combined.)

Bubba Boy
08-24-07, 09:22
I guess I am as qualified as anybody, I have a Bachelor of Economics and Bachelor of Law and spent many years working in Merchant banking. Does this mean I can predict the future exchange rate with certainty? No, no one can. I remember walking onto the trading floor of our bank on several occasions and asking several very qualified and extremely highly paid individuals what a market would do, usually you could find some one saying the dollar will definitely fall, while the dude sitting next to him would say that it is going to rise. No one knows with any certainty what the exchange rate will do in the near to medium term. Qualifications don’t necessarily mean some one will get it right.

Over the longer term one can be a little bit more certain, but then the prediction of the timing can be off.

Near term prediction of the real/us. Most likely the real will continue to rise, and the dollar fall. Now, the big driver of the currency in Brasil is not necessarily the weak US dollar, which is of course not helping, but the high returns offered in the Brazilian financial markets. Yes a strong export led current account surplus is helping the Real, but the over riding factors are the high returns offered by high interest rates and a rapidly rising Brazilian stock market. Hence when you see the Dow or other world markets fall, the Brazilian market falls as well, usually two or three times harder. The real then tends to fall as investors pull back from Brazil as the cash is taken out of the markets.

Now, the high rates of return offered in Brazil will tend to not last forever, hence one will see a reversal of this and the real should depreciate over the longer term. One could say the economic fundamentals do not support a very strong Brazilian currency. The Brazilian economy is extremely ineffecient and there is high inflation, don't believe the official quoted figures of 6%, it is closer to 10%-%15. A recent survey, by the Brazilian government of the efficiency of 48 of the larger economies around the globe found Brazil to come in at number 48, thats right dead last, the most ineffecient economy on the planet. The biggest factor in contributing to the inefficency of the economy is the ripe corruption at every level, not an easy thing to fix overnight. To fix it would take a generation or 2, this will not happen over night. Hence, some time in the future, most likely when China’s economic growth comes to a halt and or their markets melt down, the Real will depreciate again. The time frame? If anyone body could predict this with certainty they would be obviously able to leverage this.

Rio Bob
08-24-07, 14:01
Near term prediction of the real/us. Most likely the real will continue to rise, and the dollar fall. Now, the big driver of the currency in Brasil is not necessarily the weak US dollar, which is of course not helping, but the high returns offered in the Brazilian financial markets.

Thank you, this was an excellent report, probably the most accurate explanation on this subject all in one place I have seen yet.

Alex Deuce
08-24-07, 18:37
I guess I am as qualified as anybody, I have a Bachelor of Economics and Bachelor of Law and spent many years working in Merchant banking. Does this mean I can predict the future exchange rate with certainty? No, no one can. I remember walking onto the trading floor of our bank on several occasions and asking several very qualified and extremely highly paid individuals what a market would do, usually you could find some one saying the dollar will definitely fall, while the dude sitting next to him would say that it is going to rise. No one knows with any certainty what the exchange rate will do in the near to medium term. Qualifications don’t necessarily mean some one will get it right.

Over the longer term one can be a little bit more certain, but then the prediction of the timing can be off.

Near term prediction of the real/us. Most likely the real will continue to rise, and the dollar fall. Now, the big driver of the currency in Brasil is not necessarily the weak US dollar, which is of course not helping, but the high returns offered in the Brazilian financial markets. Yes a strong export led current account surplus is helping the Real, but the over riding factors are the high returns offered by high interest rates and a rapidly rising Brazilian stock market. Hence when you see the Dow or other world markets fall, the Brazilian market falls as well, usually two or three times harder. The real then tends to fall as investors pull back from Brazil as the cash is taken out of the markets.

Now, the high rates of return offered in Brazil will tend to not last forever, hence one will see a reversal of this and the real should depreciate over the longer term. One could say the economic fundamentals do not support a very strong Brazilian currency. The Brazilian economy is extremely ineffecient and there is high inflation, don't believe the official quoted figures of 6%, it is closer to 10%-%15. A recent survey, by the Brazilian government of the efficiency of 48 of the larger economies around the globe found Brazil to come in at number 48, thats right dead last, the most ineffecient economy on the planet. The biggest factor in contributing to the inefficency of the economy is the ripe corruption at every level, not an easy thing to fix overnight. To fix it would take a generation or 2, this will not happen over night. Hence, some time in the future, most likely when China’s economic growth comes to a halt and or their markets melt down, the Real will depreciate again. The time frame? If anyone body could predict this with certainty they would be obviously able to leverage this.Great post, but does not address the main reason that I think the dollar will fall. BUSH, he wants a weak dollar to promote trade.

Mr Enternational
08-25-07, 07:29
I guess I am as qualified as anybody, I have a Bachelor of Economics and Bachelor of Law and spent many years working in Merchant banking. Does this mean I can predict the future exchange rate with certainty? No, no one can.

Plus you wrote THE GUIDE!

Lorenzo
08-25-07, 17:52
The time frame? If anyone body could predict this with certainty they would be obviously able to leverage this.
Thanks for the interesting and informative post. You are echoing time-honored conventional wisdom about investing, that you can't time any kind of market. You've also shown once again that you're not a "bubba." I can't help wondering why you chose that screen name. :) Regards,

L

Sunset Strip
08-25-07, 19:06
The Real to Dollar could be 1 to 1 and that would be no issue to the regular monger. For myself, the issue seems to be that airfares are more expensive. Back in 2001 through 2003, I flew to Rio from LA for $500 total in coach. Now that same seat is at least $1200. And first class has gone up quite a bit too.

The supply of women in Rio is still high, even though the quality is a bit lower, so guys can still get laid. The problem is that many men just do not have as much disposable income to spend once in Rio.

Most regulars can find some girls they can pay R$150 or so for all night. Of course these girls will want exclusivity. But for many men paying $1200-$1700 to fly to Rio in coach, rent an apartment at least US$60, and then pay for girls is asking too much.

I think even if the dollar to real was at 3:1, guys would still find the airfare prohibitive in many cases.

So in the best world, both the dollar would get stronger AND airfares would drop.

But at the moment there are too many Brazilians flying back and forth to the US for fares to lower.

So is the demise of Varig part of the problem, too?

TJ

Rio Bob
08-25-07, 20:25
The Real to Dollar could be 1 to 1 and that would be no issue to the regular monger. For myself, the issue seems to be that airfares are more expensive. Back in 2001 through 2003, I flew to Rio from LA for $500 total in coach. Now that same seat is at least $1200. And first class has gone up quite a bit too.

The supply of women in Rio is still high, even though the quality is a bit lower, so guys can still get laid. The problem is that many men just do not have as much disposable income to spend once in Rio.

Most regulars can find some girls they can pay R$150 or so for all night. Of course these girls will want exclusivity. But for many men paying $1200-$1700 to fly to Rio in coach, rent an apartment at least US$60, and then pay for girls is asking too much.

I think even if the dollar to real was at 3:1, guys would still find the airfare prohibitive in many cases.

So in the best world, both the dollar would get stronger AND airfares would drop.

But at the moment there are too many Brazilians flying back and forth to the US for fares to lower.

So is the demise of Varig part of the problem, too?

TJ

I don't know what dates you're looking at but I did a rate check on Continental Air, Lax - GIG 1/16/08 - 1/28/08 just as an example in the height of the season right before Carnaval and I got a rate of $776 plus tax = $880. This is not such a bad rate.

Sunset Strip
08-25-07, 20:51
The rates do vary. But I also have heard that the period you mention is not really considered a busy season. Most of the consolidators I use tell me that the rates drop after Jan. 15 for about 2 weeks. I think the airlines call Jan15-the end of the month, the post-Christmas period.

So I understand your point but that period you mention is not representative of the usual West Coast fare.


In fact, I normally fly to Rio on Continental exactly during that time period to get the good rates. I remember watching the Super Bowl in Rio. So, yes, guys should look at those 2 weeks, becuase you can get good fares that will leave you with some money in your pockets.

But the average rate is well above that range you quote.

TJ

Bubba Boy
08-25-07, 21:26
You've also shown once again that you're not a "bubba." I can't help wondering why you chose that screen name. :) Regards, L

I actually chose that name after a website that changed my life a little. Basically I was sick of banking and looking for something to do in my life. I started playing around on the internet and came accross a website where the guy called himself "bubba". The dude from the website was a PHD grad and certainly no bubba. Anyway, long story short. I became interested in the Net maybe 10 years ago, started a business, which ultimately made me enough cash to live comfortable for the rest of my life without working to hard. Hence I fill in my time by basically travelling between Europe and South America full time. It is also why I have the time in my life to write my guide on Rio. I owe the "Bubba" from that website a lot. I don’t have a problem with people thinking I am a Bubba, I would rather people underestimate me.

I often get people inviting me to have a beer with them from this site. Mainly because of the guide I wrote. That is cool, however I never take them up on their offer, due mainly to me not hanging much in Zona Sul anymore. Having said that, out off all the dudes on this site that I would perhaps like to have a beer with one day, Lorenzo would be near the top. Banging Rio's finest when approaching "geisa hood" (lorenzos own words) is an inspiration to me. I want to be doing that when I am Lorenzo’s age. I am in my mid 30’s.

Exec Talent
08-25-07, 21:54
Ok so in hindsight this observation is correct, the Dow goes up the dollar goes down, great.

Or do we do nothing and sit here watching you pat yourself on the back telling us that your theory is correct after it has happened?

My comments were many months ago. Not after the fact. They were real time when money could have been made. As usual, you were just wrong. If I had to advise anything right now it would be to do the opposite of what you recommend.

Rio Bob
08-26-07, 05:11
The rates do vary. But I also have heard that the period you mention is not really considered a busy season. Most of the consolidators I use tell me that the rates drop after Jan. 15 for about 2 weeks. I think the airlines call Jan15-the end of the month, the post-Christmas period.

So I understand your point but that period you mention is not representative of the usual West Coast fare.


In fact, I normally fly to Rio on Continental exactly during that time period to get the good rates. I remember watching the Super Bowl in Rio. So, yes, guys should look at those 2 weeks, becuase you can get good fares that will leave you with some money in your pockets.

But the average rate is well above that range you quote.

TJ

Did you check the price using Continental's own website? I did a few sample dates in September, October, November, December and January and I came up with the same price of $880, all going through NWK, what dates are you looking at?

Rio Bob
09-07-07, 13:34
brazil's real, local bonds rise after central bank cuts rate

by adriana brasileiro and cecilia tornaghi

sept. 6 (bloomberg) -- brazil's real and local currency bonds rose after the central bank cut the benchmark interest rate by the smallest amount in three policy meetings because inflation remains below the target of policy makers.

the bank's monetary policy committee reduced the rate by a 0.25 percentage point to 11.25 percent late yesterday, matching forecasts from all 34 economists surveyed by bloomberg. brazil, which cut rates by half a percentage point in june and july, still has the highest borrowing costs in south america, making local-currency bonds and the real attractive to investors.

``the fundamentals are all very positive, with the outlook for inflation still benign and markets recovering well from the recent credit-market turbulence,'' said mauro cunha, who helps oversee more than $1.3 billion as a partner at maua investimentos in sao paulo.

the real rose 1.1 percent to 1.9450 reais per dollar at 4:05 p.m. new york time. the currency has strengthened 9.8 percent against the dollar this year, the biggest gain among the seven most actively traded latin american currencies.

the yield on brazil's benchmark zero-coupon bonds due january 2008 fell 6 basis points, or 0.06 percentage point, to 11.15 percent, according to banco ubs pactual sa.

the bank has sliced the benchmark rate 18 times from 19.75 percent in 2005 to spur economic growth that lags behind most of its regional peers. the central bank adjusts interest rates in an effort to keep inflation at or near 4.5 percent.

brazil's consumer prices rose 0.47 percent in august from the previous month, led by higher food costs, the national statistics agency ibge said in rio de janeiro today.

inflation results

inflation, as measured by the government's benchmark ipca index, rose last month at a faster pace than in july. the 0.47 percent increase was in line with the median 0.46 percent increase forecast in a bloomberg survey of 34 economists.

milk and dairy products jumped 5.77 percent in august from a month earlier, the agency said. brazil's inflation rate in the 12 months through august was 4.18 percent, compared with 3.74 percent in the 12 months through july, the agency said. the central bank targets inflation of 4.5 percent.

Vlad2005
09-07-07, 21:04
Thank you for you information Rio_Bob but a "translation" would be greatly appreciated as I don't know shit about economics.

Thank you

Rio Bob
09-08-07, 15:25
Thank you for you information Rio_Bob but a "translation" would be greatly appreciated as I don't know shit about economics.

Thank you



The bank's monetary policy committee reduced the rate by a 0.25 percentage point to 11.25 percent late yesterday, matching forecasts from all 34 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Brazil, which cut rates by half a percentage point in June and July, still has the highest borrowing costs in South America, making local-currency bonds and the real attractive to investors.

I believe the most important info for us here is the above statement, that as they cut the borrowing rate in Brazil the Real will weaken which is good for us mongers so we can get bucetta at a better price.

MrK
09-08-07, 19:52
Rio Bob has given an excellent analysis of why the Real has appreciated so much against the dollar in the last year.

Let me add my 2 cents. I think the Real will appreciate even more in the next year or so and will probably be around 1.75 by next summer.

Even though the Brazilian interest rate has been coming down, I think you will see the US interest rate drop a lot in the next 6 months. I would think the Euro will go above 1.40 and the yen will be around 105 by next summer. It sure looks to me like the US economy is slowing down and the Federal Reserve will have to lower rates.

DAMN! I remember those great days just a few years back when I could get 3.5 reis to a dollar and the garotas were asking for 150 reis for TLN. I remember eating at a rodizio along the beach and paying less than 10 USD after an incredible meal. I remember going to Monte Carlo on my birthday, getting two garotas for two hours, drinking and eating and only paying 900 reis (about 260 USD then).

Vlad2005
09-08-07, 20:42
These are good news indeed .Thank you rio_bob for keeping us updated. Let's hope the glory of the dollar will rise again.

Cheers

Rio Bob
09-11-07, 16:55
Rio Bob has given an excellent analysis of why the Real has appreciated so much against the dollar in the last year.

Let me add my 2 cents. I think the Real will appreciate even more in the next year or so and will probably be around 1.75 by next summer.

Even though the Brazilian interest rate has been coming down, I think you will see the US interest rate drop a lot in the next 6 months. I would think the Euro will go above 1.40 and the yen will be around 105 by next summer. It sure looks to me like the US economy is slowing down and the Federal Reserve will have to lower rates.

DAMN! I remember those great days just a few years back when I could get 3.5 reis to a dollar and the garotas were asking for 150 reis for TLN. I remember eating at a rodizio along the beach and paying less than 10 USD after an incredible meal. I remember going to Monte Carlo on my birthday, getting two garotas for two hours, drinking and eating and only paying 900 reis (about 260 USD then).

Yes I think you're right, the US dollar will weaken and if the strength of the Real stays the same then yes our exchange rate will suffer.

But I believe the Brazilian govt. wants to weaken the Real for trade purposes for the same reason that a weak dollar benefits our Multinational big cap companies. So I am hoping that if they attempt to weaken the Real then with the weaker dollar our exchange rate will stay the same.

My guess is that we will stay at the 2 Real to 1 dollar exchange rate within the next year.

I went to visit a friend recently and he took me to a new Chuascaria in his town. Its was $52 a person all you can eat. He said to me remember when we used to go to Mariu’s and it was $4 a person ? I said yeah but today its more like what it is here in the states, he couldn’t believe it.

Exec Talent
09-16-07, 10:01
Kept getting a system malfunction error when I attempted to withdraw R$1000 from Banc do Brasil. No other message. In case you get it, it means that you are over the daily limit for withdrawals. R$1000 is now more than $500.

Johan007
09-16-07, 13:00
back in march 2003 i was in Brasil for 3 weeks...and I got for ONE EURO about 3.70 reais.

Now.....yesterdays rate was 1 Euro= 2.60 reais...!! And thats a interbancary rate by an ATM...I am sure if you exchange cash Euros in a change shop or at a banc you will get LESS then 2.60 reais...! Probaly not more then 2.50 or so..

Given this....and knowing inflation rates go up and tickets which also became more and more pricy; I also think for europeans Brasil will become more and more a very expensive place to monger!!
Heee if i wanna book a round airfare to Brasil (from Amsterdam or Brussels) I can't make it UNDER 750 euros (1012 USD)!!!! Unless maybe the odd super deal you see once every time. But don't count on that:-(
Besides that I hear the airport tax allready is 40 USD when you fly out....!!

South-America as a whole is become more and more pricy destination for mongering. Peru too is getting more expensive every year..... And I realy don't want to start to BITHC about the DR....:-(

Thailand......anyone?? Then again...In Thailand they don't have good Bundas....:-(


Johan

Alex Deuce
09-16-07, 18:27
yes i think you're right, the us dollar will weaken and if the strength of the real stays the same then yes our exchange rate will suffer.

but i believe the brazilian govt. wants to weaken the real for trade purposes for the same reason that a weak dollar benefits our multinational big cap companies. so i am hoping that if they attempt to weaken the real then with the weaker dollar our exchange rate will stay the same.

my guess is that we will stay at the 2 real to 1 dollar exchange rate within the next year.

i went to visit a friend recently and he took me to a new chuascaria in his town. its was $52 a person all you can eat. he said to me remember when we used to go to mariu’s and it was $4 a person ? i said yeah but today its more like what it is here in the states, he couldn’t believe it.bob,

you can speculate all you want. since the demise of the gold standard, currency is pegged majority to gdp and perceived strength of your economy. you can quote a bunch of derivatives and low correlative coefficient stats all you want, but the real story is the brazilian real-gdp at present is 4.1% and expected to climb, while the us is 3.9% - 3.3% and expected to be adjusted downward by at least a point. only fear is inflation (which even the locals are starting to feel) and the cursed world bank. the only multinational companies that are going to affect growth are in china and their commodity costs for raw goods have had no change as made in usa products costs have skyrocketed. the reason so many are outsourcing. so do not look for china to do a damn thing or let the us slow it or brazil down. why do you thing bush invited lula to the white house? it wasn’t to discuss big bundas!

look for the dollar to continue to fall and hard at least 1-1.75 by december. you stated once that it is difficult to predict monetary values, but someone needs to tell all major banks and billionaire george soros this. it’s done on a daily basis and money is traded on these predictions. other than finance and guns we are ceasing to be a power in the word. we really do not make anything; we really do not grow anything and wonder why we are loosing sway with other countries. lula is doing a good job cleaning up corruption and setting good economic policies. you see it in sao paolo in the power struggles between the federal and local police on a daily basis. laws that once were not enforced are being draconianly enforced and the local strong men are being displaced and replaced (reason for some of the clinica and terma closings.) big news for foreign and especially us mongers all over brazil “stay away from anyone that even remotly looks ****!”

Jan 156
09-17-07, 00:35
Kept getting a system malfunction error when I attempted to withdraw R$1000 from Banc do Brasil. No other message. In case you get it, it means that you are over the daily limit for withdrawals. R$1000 is now more than $500.

Yeah. But it can also mean the machine's just run out of money.

Athlete
09-25-07, 17:44
You live in Rio? did we meet already? Send me your contact info!!

Sadly, Citibank dupes all their customers. They pay a crappy exchange rate.

I used to go to Citibank with my US Citibank card, and with another US bank card. Citibank always paid a 2-3 cent lower exchange rate for their OWN card than they paid for the the other bank card. So that is about the same as if they charged a few dollars fee.

I tried it many times. Gave up on Citibank ever since, so I cannot tell if anything has changed.I think its outrageous to pay a so called "international fee" when using a CC out of the USA

1. HSBC

There is no international fee charged to hsbc CC's ONLY if you have an hsbc account with them (checking acct or savings maybe both is needed) what is needed is 100, 000 dollars in the acct! Lolol

2. Citibank charges an international fee

I called yesterday.

I am starting to see why they charge a int"l fee (currency exchnge rates).

Is there any CC co. That don't charge a fee or what is the co. With the lowest rate?

Athlete
09-25-07, 17:55
http://www.travelfinances.com/Services/creditcard-conversion-fee-comparison.htm

Card Issuer Fee Visa or
MasterCard Fee DCC Fee Total Fee Fee for
USD Purchase
AmEx 2% NA** NO 2% NO
Capital One -1% 1% 0-5% 0-5% NO
Chase Bank† 2%
1% 0-5% 3-8%
YES
CitiBank 2% 1% 0-5% 3-8% YES
Diner's Club 2% 1% 0-5% 3-8% YES
Discover Card* NA** NA** NO NA** NO
EverBank 0% 1% 0-5% 1-6% YES
HSBC*** 1-3% 1% 0-5% 1-9% YES
MBNA 2% 1% 0-5% 3-8% YES

Amerioca
10-08-07, 02:35
WTF? I return home from a vacation in Mexico, and the dollar has tanked to 1.80!? Not only that, my alma mater loses to Stanford!?

Off Road
10-08-07, 02:50
we have mentioned many times.. the relation between the down and the real.. inversly proportional..

Thought you might be interested in this chart. I found it on Yahoo! Finance today. You can access the chart at the following link:

http://finance.yahoo.com/charts#chart6:symbol=usdbrl=x;range=3m;compare=^ixic;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;logscale=on;source=undefined

Exec Talent
10-08-07, 04:28
we have mentioned many times.. the relation
between the down and the real.. inversly proportional..

Thought you might be interested in this chart. I found
it on Yahoo! Finance today.


I tried, emphasis on tried, to point this out some time ago when there
was an opportunity for members of this board to benefit but was
shouted down by ISG self-appointed chief economist, Rio Bob.
Incidently, before I left Rio a few weeks ago one of the last things
I did was place an order for R$ (at 20 points above where it is now).

Rio Bob you really should stick to what you know. In which case,
you would never post. Hmmmm.

And, Sperto, if there someday is to be an ISG Hall of Fame
I am sure you will make it on the first ballot. Your knowledge
and insights about Brazil are invaluable. Thank you.

Almotu
10-08-07, 06:28
Incidently, before I left Rio a few weeks ago one of the last things I did was place an order for R$ (at 20 points above where it is now).Can you elaborate on how to do this and it's benefits?

SlickdySlick
10-08-07, 13:35
E.T. I also tried and got shot down too. I said last year when you are leaving Rio take your extra Reals and what you plan on spending on vacation the next year and buy pounds. That way your vacation dollars are a bet pound vs real not dollar vs real

Athlete
10-08-07, 20:40
Bank of america has a American Express card with a 1% international fee, sometimes there is another fee for the exchange rate. I'll check if there is.

Rio Bob
10-08-07, 20:47
we have mentioned many times.. the relation between the down and the real.. inversly proportional..

Thought you might be interested in this chart. I found it on Yahoo! Finance today. You can access the chart at the following link:

http://finance.yahoo.com/charts#chart6:symbol=usdbrl=x;range=3m;compare=^ixic;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;logscale=on;source=undefined


I compared the DJIA vs Real.. interesting that they mirror each other. DJ up, Real down.. This is a 6 month view. Personally I would prefer the DJ up and Dollar down.


I just found it interesting looking at the dow vs real, did not mean to start a in depth discussion of economics.
What about the price of pussy? I recall 5 or 6 years ago paying $100 US dollars for an all night, in Sao Paulo. That probably would have been R$400. Today I would pay R$200 for all night, which is also $100, but in Rio.. so.. not sure what this means. I guess $100 dollars is what my typical spend would be.
Now, for sure, you cannot find an all night deal in the USA, say Vegas, for $100. Not even close.

Thanks for bringing it up again, I guess we got it now.

Madd Love
10-09-07, 00:17
Alex Deuce you are right,

You are one of the only few ones who get it. The dollar is way over valued and must fall. Bush is deliberately allowing the dollar to fall while speaking of a strong dollar policy for the past few years. ACTIONS SPEAK LOUDER THAN WORDS. One of the reason for the decline is you. S real estate is turning sour and. The USA Is living way beyond its means. It imports everything from the rest of the world. Nothing is made in the you. S anymore.

One of the smartest guys sitting in congress and running for president "Ron Paul" is the only one asking our central banker why he is creating inflation in the you. S by devaluing the dollar.

The dollar has lost appeal as a world reserve currency because world cental banks are selling Dollars and buying yen, Euros and pounds as reserve currency. Make no mistake if Brazil or any other country were in this situation as the USA Their economy would have collapse a long time ago.

It is because we are the worlds largest economy and I guess we are so rich we can print and force feed dollars on the rest of the world. Eventually a price has to be paid for printing an ulimited amount of currency.

Ben Bernake stop reporting the money supply, so you know where we are headed to inflation and hyper inflation. Every country will experience inflation and every country is printing money. So it will be a race to the bottom. Who can devalue the fastest. All eyes are on the dollar because the world has only knew of nothing but a dollar standard since WW2.

This is changing as the USA Is flooding the world and exporting inflation. Thats why you see housing prices rising so fast since 2002. Too much money chasing the same thing will hyper inflate anything. Thats why we see new highs in the DOW. Too much money is being thrown into the economy.

I manage and run a website on this isssue.

But for now the dollar will continue its slide unless policy makers in washington reverse course. There are a number of reasons the dollar is being devalued. If we get a democratic president next term the dollar may fall further. The only way to get the dollar to rise and maintain its value is to get Ben bernake away from the printing press. The you. S is in for hard times in the future. Not only the you. S but all other countries as well because everyone is printing money.

Don't believe me.

Then I challenge everyone to check out money supply stats in each country.

Hobbying
10-13-07, 20:53
I just checked the rates and its at 1.8 to the USD. 3 months ago it was 2.2, the drop is staggering and really sucks since I'm going there soon. I should have gotten more euros to bring over instead.

Daidalus
10-16-07, 05:24
I have a not insignificant amount of Reals and there is no way I will be able to spend them all in the time I am going to be in Rio.

Yes I know I could offer to buy all the forum members in Rio a drink or two but lets suppose for a minute I have had a lapse of judgment and would like to exchange my excess reals for those next to worthless US $ things. where and how would I go about it for the best rates?

Scotch
10-16-07, 23:30
Good News The US exports are doing great and inside traders say the US Dollar will soon be stablelize.


Bad News Soon could be as long as a year or two, But I predit Half a year.

The Real would have to go down eventullly to help the exports out of Brazil and it will make a stableize US dollar worth more.

Just give it time is all run in cycles.

Alex Deuce
10-17-07, 04:45
Good News The US exports are doing great and inside traders say the US Dollar will soon be stablelize.

Bad News Soon could be as long as a year or two, But I predit Half a year.

The Real would have to go down eventullly to help the exports out of Brazil and it will make a stableize US dollar worth more.

Just give it time is all run in cycles.Brazil is the main Raw Goods not finished goods supplier for the majority of the world especially China. Please explain how lowering Real Values will help exports in a captive market IE.. oligopoly.
(They would be stupid to devalue the real in this market to the dollar. The Yen maybe, but not dollar.)

Like I said before, There are so many unproven low correlative derivitives that people throw around it is absolutly rediculas. Its about supply and demand. They have the supply, china is its biggest demanding partner and they are ceasing to give a fuck about the Dollar. Bush did not go running down there to talk about why Lula told him to take his Aids money and stick it up his ass. (O yeah the US funneled the funds for 2007 through the Global Fund for AIDS anyway.) Look for the dollar to go below 1.75 before December or the night after the next rate cut. And start looking for the CPI to start to climb.

Vlad2005
10-20-07, 18:41
Hey ALEX,

I think we all appreciate your economic opinions about the REAL/DOLLAR struggle which so far have become true.But as a man that I don't know nothing about economics can you plase tell us if it is going to be any good news soon .Let's say in the next year.

Thank you for taking the time to keep us updated.

Exec Talent
10-22-07, 21:44
The rate I got on the dollar today was 1.94 for those making travel plans.

Euro100
10-23-07, 00:06
The rate I got on the dollar today was 1.94 for those making travel plans.
SWEET! Where?

Alex Deuce
10-23-07, 02:26
Hey ALEX,

I think we all appreciate your economic opinions about the REAL/DOLLAR struggle which so far have become true.But as a man that I don't know nothing about economics can you plase tell us if it is going to be any good news soon .Let's say in the next year.

Thank you for taking the time to keep us updated.The dollar will and needs to remain comparatively low to help our exports. Which is what is keeping the economic data strong this quarter. Do not look for the government to promote policies that counter this presumption. The next administrations will focus on balancing the budget and increasing the breadth of social program. So Hillary aint going to do shit about it either.

I mess with Rio Bob about his assumptions, but they are based upon sound economic theories However if taken outside of the individual base knowledge of economics will always confuse. The simplest rules is Supply and demand. You print/supply to much money, demand/price for it goes down. The Federal Reserve ceased publishing M3 statistics in March 2006, explaining that it costs a lot to collect the data but doesn't provide significantly useful information was a bunch of bullshit. They did not want the markets to know the amount of deposits of eurodollars and repurchase agreements held by China. The American public would impeach the presidency and the congress if they knew the reduced repurchase agreement that foreign governments held of our money supply.

See money supply: http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h6/Current/

I predict that this will be the first US President to be indicted after he leaves office by the US Congress.

O Yeah, Nope it ain't going to get better! You going to get some speculators who will temporarily drive the value up, but it wont stay there for long.

FLRoadWarrior
10-24-07, 14:58
i will be in rio nov 2 to nov 18. i have changed money at termas and at helpee. and one time by a friend of a friend. several of us cashed out a $1000 us dollars a peice. we got a great rate. only this time, my friend has lost that connection. any advise for getting the best rate and where. also can you get a better rate for brand new $100 dolloar bills, with no markings. hope to see some of you guys at the termas. will be at 4x4 on 11-2 as soon as the doors open. we are going to have 5 guys going this trip. one rookie. and 4 vets. we are all taking bets on how long the rookie can hold out in 4x4.

thanks in advance,

frw

Euro100
10-24-07, 20:54
i will be in rio nov 2 to nov 18. i have changed money at termas and at helpee. and one time by a friend of a friend. several of us cashed out a $1000 us dollars a peice. we got a great rate. only this time, my friend has lost that connection. any advise for getting the best rate and where. also can you get a better rate for brand new $100 dolloar bills, with no markings. hope to see some of you guys at the termas. will be at 4x4 on 11-2 as soon as the doors open. we are going to have 5 guys going this trip. one rookie. and 4 vets. we are all taking bets on how long the rookie can hold out in 4x4.

thanks in advance,

frw

i got a better rate by (1.8) at l'uomo terma and at help! than at my hotel or at 4x4 (1.7) or at the airport (1.61, including commission).

Pipe Layer99
10-24-07, 22:00
The rate I got on the dollar today was 1.94 for those making travel plans.

Sounds great.
Care to share the location with the fellas there and those on their way over?

Madd Love
10-25-07, 00:55
The international monetary Fund, head Rodrigo Rato just issued a warning yesterday of an abrupt fall in the dollar, because of loss of confidence. He also appeared to suggest that Europe could take steps to temper the strong appreciation of the euro.

Rodrigo Rato Comments:

There is a risk that exchange-rate appreciation in countries with flexible exchange rates.- including the euro area.- could hurt their growth prospects, and that in these circumstances protectionist pressures could worsen, " he said on the final day of the annual meetings of the IMF and the World Bank.

"Some emerging economies that have relied on external financing to fund large current-account deficits could be tipped into crisis by a combination of reduced demand for their exports and tighter financial market conditions, " he said, adding that those developments would also worsen the prospects of low-income countries.

"And there is a risk that central banks may falter in fighting the inflation which has been spurred in some countries by higher oil and food prices. "

MY COMMENT:

The dollar will continue the downward trend without intervention. Bush has been one of the only presidents that has not intervened in the currency markets. As long as there is a gradual decline in the dollar he will do nothing. But he is playing with fire by printing more dollars. The Euro area is also way behind the inflation curve by pausing on interest rates to stop the appreciation of the Euro. To some extent I think the U. S is trying to make the dollar at parity with the Yuan and force China to raise the value of Yuan. For a while Brazil was defending the dollar trying to keep the Real 2 to 1, but unable to keep the 2 to 1 ratio, Brazil had to let the Real get stronger. A stronger currency now a days is highly unattractable thats why interest rates around the globe are artificially low. Brazil faces risk if there is a economic slowdown with a strong currency.

And most countries are in a competitive globalization exporting game, (organizations like the WTO) trying to sell their goods in services to the world instead of domestically producing and selling locally.

I will leave with this last statement by Warren buffet on the issue of the dollar and currencies around the world.

Warren Buffet:

When the claim checks outstanding grow sufficiently numerous and when the issuing party can unilaterally determine their purchasing power, the pressure on the issuer to dilute their value by inflating the currency becomes almost irresistible. For the debtor government, the weapon of inflation is the economic equivalent of the "H" bomb, and that is why very few countries have been allowed to swamp the world with debt denominated in their own currency. Our past, relatively good record for fiscal integrity has let us break this rule, but the generosity accorded us is likely to intensify, rather than relieve, the eventual pressure on us to inflate. If we do succumb to that pressure, it won't be just the foreign holders of our claim checks who will suffer. It will be all of us as well.

My comment:

Currency devaluation is likely to to be with us during most of our lifetimes until one country wakes up before the pain sinks in. Usually throughout history like weinamar Germany have to go through the pain before any changes are made. Like ALEX DEUX on the comment below said the next administration won't do anything either. Democrats are looking to finance and pay health coverage. Where is the money going to come from. Taxes are not popular, they are going to the printing press. I am not trying to promote Ron paul on this site but he is the only candidate that will change things and get things in order on washington.

Just like germany, in the early 1920's the stock market was booming but the currency was in decline, prices begin to rise faster and faster. Until eventually the currency was worthless. Just like globalization today everyone is happy trying to export and trade, stocks around the world reaching new highs, with few corrections along the way. Meanwhile prices are rising globally, Not just in the USA, but everywhere. Usually the wealthy are not affected by the inflation as they know whats going on and protect their wealth, while the middle class and poor are mostly affected.

In my opinion its still a 50/50 chance the dollar will slide too much because of the economic consequences it will cause for other exporting nations, its too early to tell but it depends on a number of government policies they choose at the moment.

Pipe Layer99
10-26-07, 18:12
The rate I got on the dollar today was 1.94 for those making travel plans.

Can we have some intel on where to get a better exchange rate?

I see you have posted on a few other issues, but not this one.

Thanks, DD

FLRoadWarrior
10-26-07, 18:21
(1.80) is what I have heard from good sources.

(1.91) I doubt it. I could be wrong.

Java Man
10-26-07, 20:03
Donnie D,
I think your request to find a better exchange rate is now moot. They gave you a better rate in order to bank the Dollar for the day when it would be strong again. From all the previous post on this topic, it looks like that will take many years. Kinda foolish now for someone to give .20 more than the going rate. If you exchange in the thousands, MAYBE they'll give you a few cents more.
BTW, the slide continues. Today's exchange rate is 1.00 USD = 1.77790 BRL.
Yahoo had it at 1.767000BRL.
Someone posted that by December the Dollar would sink to 1.75BRL. Looks like that low mark will get here sooner. :(

On a side note, anyone noticed that the Dollar is now worth 0.96 Canadian!!

Ezinho
10-27-07, 03:35
Below more empty statments by ET and never a follow up, I can find many more, it's constant , he's not the mailman cause he never delivers.

Bob, just do what a lot of us have done on here and put him on your Ignore List. This feud between you two is getting beyond ridiculous. Besides, when you quote him, I can see the BS he has posted in the past, which kind of defeats the whole purpose of the Ignore List in the first place!

Oh yeah, the Real hit 1.76 today against the USD, any ISG "economists" want to predict how low it will go by the end of the year?

RonnyRon
10-27-07, 06:27
The rate I got on the dollar today was 1.94 for those making travel plans. Posted 10/22/07

Care to share?

RR

Exec Talent
10-27-07, 14:57
Rio Bob, Rio Bob, Rio Bob,
What are we going to do with you? I must find out where you live and pay you a visit. Because, if you are this funny on the internet, you must be a riot in person.

Incidentally, my comment about the exchange rate was for those people actually coming to Rio within the coming weeks unlike you who travel here about once every five years. The whole point of my post was to let people know that the exchange rate they see on the internet is not the street rate. Some people use credit cards and some people use cash. Right now it would be better to bring cash since the cambios are offering a higher rate. Whew, this is getting tiresome.

As I pointed out before, since the US stock market went up, the exchange rate went down. My guy is now offering his best customers only 1.92. I checked at a couple other places and they were offering 1.85 and 1.88. Still better than the commercial rate. Just like the girls, who treat different clients differently, my guy does not give everyone that rate.

BTW, Rio Bob, when I need economic advice I get it from an internationally known economist which I surmise is slightly better than your magic eight ball. My best advice you chose not to quote. Basically anything you suggest doing, do the opposite.

Again, so it does not get lost this time, the point of my post was to let people who are planning a trip to Rio know that the street rate is much higher than the commercial rate and that they should bring cash rather than plan on using their credit or ATM cards.

Tavares
10-27-07, 15:34
Exec Talent,

We've watched a stockmarket seesaw since July but the usd exchange rate is sliding all the time. I think it has more to do with the fact that the federal reserve has cut interest rates to offset any risk the subprime troubles might spread to other sectors of the economy.

At the same time the brazilian economy is booming and the european central bank has kept the interest rates steady. So what can you expect? if the dollar becomes cheaper compared to both the Real and the Euro, it goes without saying that its exchange rate will suffer, because people prefer higher returns for their savings so they will sell their usd to buy euros or other convertible currencies. Supply and demand...my two cents

Rastaman
10-27-07, 16:27
It's strictly supply vs demand which accounts for the differences in the currency exchange rates. The real is in greater demand vs the dollar. A lot of investment money is pouring into Brasil, whereby there's too many greenbacks being held by foreign central banks and investors. It's simple as that.

Exec Talent
10-27-07, 17:25
It's strictly supply vs demand which accounts for the differences in the currency exchange rates. The real is in greater demand vs the dollar. A lot of investment money is pouring into Brasil, whereby there's too many greenbacks being held by foreign central banks and investors. It's simple as that.

So a smart American might be investing in Brazil right now which might mean he has been bringing a lot of US dollars into the country which might explain why he gets an above average exchange rate. Interesting.

Still, check the movement of the DOW against the exchange rate. I NEVER said anything about causation.

Exec Talent
10-27-07, 19:10
Rio Bob is English not your first language. If so, I can try another for you. Here is the exact reason I posted.

Again, so it does not get lost this time, the point of my post was to let people who are planning a trip to Rio know that the street rate is much higher than the commercial rate and that they should bring cash rather than plan on using their credit or ATM cards.

I have a meeting about one of my investments right now then have to see a woman about a cat, but I certainly will be checking back later. You are more amusing that the late night comedies here.

George90
10-27-07, 19:40
IRP

The Interest Rate Parity Theory states that investors will buy the currency which has a higher rate of return (interest rate) and sell the currency that has the lower rate of return. The increase in demand for one currency and the increase in supply of another currency will cause the exchange rate between the two to favor the currency with the higher interest rate.

Euro interest rates have risen relative to US interest rates, so investors are dumping dollars and buying euros. The exchange rate between the dollar and the euro has been and will continue to favor the euro.


DCV

One method of stock valuation is to find the present value (discount) of a firm's earnings, cashflow, or dividends. The rate used to perform the discounting is influenced by the market interest rate. The higher the discount rate the lower the stock value, and vice versa. The Fed lowering the federal funds target causes the stock market to rise.


ET's Theory

What ET observed is correct but the correlation between exchange rates and the stock market is spurious. Higher (or lower) interest rates affect both the stock market and the exchange rate but in opposite directions.

Black Boots
10-27-07, 19:46
Hi Guys

Just returned from a trip to the land of honeys Rio.

My frist trip and maybe more to come, Began my mongering in Rio at the therma Loumo, great girls in place, was spoilt for choice, got to take a nice morena from to the cabin, great performance. Would like to repeat it also tried a low end one from the newpaper ads just a quicke not advisable would not mind the strenous 14hr flight to partake in more pleasures.

My experience with the Sao Paulo garotas was a rip off. Pay upfront and after the first shot scam up avoid of pay after.

A experience of a therma is a must to complete a visit to Rio. Cheers from the land of Sands.

BB

Pipe Layer99
10-27-07, 20:17
This will be my 4th trip to the beautiful land of Bunda. So I already know where to get reals - cambios, Bobby (blameitonRio4travel), or at Help. My top 3 places.
Anyway, what I was looking for was ETs specific 'contact'. After numerous posts he never disclosed this information. Which tells me he is full of it. He never answered 'exactly' where to get such a better rate. If it was something like 1.79 at the cambio and 1.85 at Help, I bet he would be quick to point that out. Why - because thats something we can figure out for ourselves.
On another note, he is the only one who gets special treatment at lame termas like MC. With lame requests to boot - asking for girls with smaller bundas. Who wants a smaller ass in Rio!?! Again, as we already know, the terma girls come in all shapes and sizes. One to please every mans taste.

Moving on -
We all know already - don't change money at the Airport cambio unless you need cab fare. An alternative is to find the guys in the airport and get a better rate without paying commission. Then in the city, check the cambios for their rates and stop by to check Helps rate in the evening.

Have fun and play safe.
Less than 2 weeks and counting. DD

Hojeobrigado
10-27-07, 22:25
Guys,

Just my 2 cents worth, last week, in the Copacabana Cambios, the rate was 1. 85. Citibank ATM in Ipanema was 1. 73 for a Wells Fargo Debit Card. HSBC was 1. 79 for AMEX and Visa. Cambios seem to be willing to give a small premium just now for dollars, however, I think it is mostly because Rio has a distinct lack of US gringos just now, saw many more Europeans and Asians. This was confirmed by a girl I took out of MP and used for a GF for 3-4 days, as she said American business was very bad right now.

Cheers,

Hoje

JWNoot
10-27-07, 22:26
The Marriott has an exchange rate of 1.80 versus $1. I've been exchanging at this rate since Tuesday 10/23.

Just an FYI.

JW

Java Man
10-28-07, 02:03
For example:
Typical Monger staying less than 10 days will arrive in Rio with maybe $3000. Maybe he won't exchange it all at once, as the rate seems to fluctuate daily. He'll go to a cambio and get the going rate. Or maybe he kept his money in his home account and is accessing it through a local ATM, and is getting the going rate. He's betting that tomorrow the rate will be better.

Lets say he does exchange the entire $3000 when he arrives, if he shops around, someone will give him a better exchange rate.

Or maybe he's staying much longer, say months, instead of days. Instead of $3000, he has tens of thousands. And he's willing to exchange it when he arrives, and has made contacts from previous trips so he knows who will give him the best unadvertised rate.
Lets say you know this monger, and he tells you where to go. And you show up to exchange $500. As a favor to your friend, you'll get a slightly better rate, but that cambio will not give you the same unadvertised rate for that small amount.

In essence, the amount you exchange, depending on the cambio, may determine your exchange rate. It's sorta like finding a GFE.

ET is saying that RIGHT NOW cash is king. That wasn't the case for this typical monger in Rio last month.

Good N Plenty
10-28-07, 04:37
I checked 3 places in LA & that's what I got for a $100.00 exchange. $R1.68 for $1000.00 exchange.

I can tell you nobody is giving 1.9 unless they are leaving the airport & stuck with it.

Generally, is it better to exchange in Brazil or US?

Jan 156
10-28-07, 12:01
We all know already - don't change money at the Airport cambio unless you need cab fare. An alternative is to find the guys in the airport and get a better rate without paying commission. Then in the city, check the cambios for their rates and stop by to check Helps rate in the evening.

Has something changed? I admit that over about six years or so I have mostly found the airport cambio to give better rates than the ones in town. The guys standing around offering black market exchange will beat them of course.

Help is ok if you need to get change on a visit there, but a) if I were changing a large amount, Help is hardly my vicinity of choice for carrying large hunks of cash; b) if I were changing a smaller amount I can't see how the net difference in better rates is worth carrying it round muggers' paradise to get to and from Help (except, as I said, for exchanging what might be needed that evening).

As I frequent visitor I'm sure you have your own system, and if it suits you that's all that matters.

The pointers I would personally offer as perhaps generally useful would include: Change cash or use ATMs in the mornings. Have hidden places on your person to stash it. Don't leave it till Friday or the day before a national/local holiday to get cash. Always have more than one source for topping up what you might need. If you do some shopping on the way back from the ATM/cambio, have small change ready in a different pocket.

And, as someone has already mentioned, someone somewhere at some point will get or offer a better rate than the one you just got. Just live with it - you're on holiday, enjoy the good luck you have rather than the good luck you wish you'd had ;-)

Good N Plenty
10-28-07, 17:47
Guy's, I'm coming to Rio, taking the REAL bus from GIG, walking to hotel with conspicuous backpack with $US1500+ on me (concealed). Doing the math with a X-rate spread of 1.7 - 1.86 is $R160. From a security standpoint, it doesn't sound like it's worth the security risk for $R160. How much more am I spending on a taxi by meter to Posto 9 vs REAL bus?

Am I missing something? Is it that safe? Obviously ATM's are not loaded with $US. Just trying to be practical.

If someone wants to combine funds to get an extraordinary rate, I'm all ears!

Alex Deuce
10-28-07, 21:37
I am heading to Rio on Monday and have been frantically trying to exchange an additional $5k for my 2 month long stay. My first $10k was at 1.85 in August. (I have access to a Brazilian bank account) The best deal I have gotten has been with American Express @ 1.789 transaction lock date of Monday. My friend in Sao Paulo has (Works for Citibank) also been working for me. He states; "the exchanges that offer above 1.8 are limiting the transactions to 250 reals. Help is not 1.85 it is 1.78 and all cambios are below 1.8 as of today". So I really do not think that some of the information given has been factual and do not even think of exchanging money at the Airport.

Hojeobrigado
10-28-07, 21:47
I am heading to Rio on Monday and have been frantically trying to exchange an additional $5k for my 2 month long stay. My first $10k was at 1.85 in August. (I have access to a Brazilian bank account) The best deal I have gotten has been with American Express @ 1.789 transaction lock date of Monday. My friend in Sao Paulo has (Works for Citibank) also been working for me. He states; "the exchanges that offer above 1.8 are limiting the transactions to 250 reals. Help is not 1.85 it is 1.78 and all cambios are below 1.8 as of today". So I really do not think that some of the information given has been factual and do not even think of exchanging money at the Airport.Alex,

I have no reason to doubt you, but I DID exchange US $1K at 1. 85 in the cambio 1 block behind the Othon Palace, then 1/2 block North on 10/22. No doubt tho'the volatility is through the roof these days. BTW- you might mention to your friend at CitiBank that currently HSBC and Brandesco are just killing them on both the exchange and associated fees. It is currently at retail at least a 7% premium if you use a CitiBank ATM.

Cheers,

Hoje

Pipe Layer99
10-28-07, 23:49
For the last 2 years, the airport rates sux and they charge comission.
So you will lose some $. I only get enough for cab fare.

For the rest of the info you provided - you are right on point.

I generally change funds at the cambios, my hotel or from Bobby for 1-2 days use. I only use Help as an 'alternative' to get a few more reals for that evening (if needed). Of course (I hope) no one is going to change a large sum at Help and then carry it around inside there or attempt to go home with it. That would not be a good idea.


[QUOTE=Christopherd]Has something changed? I admit that over about six years or so I have mostly found the airport cambio to give better rates than the ones in town. The guys standing around offering black market exchange will beat them of course.

Help is ok if you need to get change on a visit there, but a) if I were changing a large amount, Help is hardly my vicinity of choice for carrying large hunks of cash; b) if I were changing a smaller amount I can't see how the net difference in better rates is worth carrying it round muggers' paradise to get to and from Help (except, as I said, for exchanging what might be needed that evening).

As I frequent visitor I'm sure you have your own system, and if it suits you that's all that matters.

The pointers I would personally offer as perhaps generally useful would include: Change cash or use ATMs in the mornings. Have hidden places on your person to stash it. Don't leave it till Friday or the day before a national/local holiday to get cash. Always have more than one source for topping up what you might need....[Quote]

Cho 637
10-29-07, 01:17
Help will only exchange $100US.

Ejam06
10-29-07, 04:10
Last week I was getting 1.87 at the cambios and at Help. Citi bank was giving 1.79 to 1.82 at best. Good Luck

Java Man
10-29-07, 05:25
for Bunda, Sex, Garotas, Bunda, Cambios even. Did I mention Bunda?.... :D

Prime7
It's always better to exchange your $$ in Brazil. You'll get a lower rate plus fees if you get your Reals in the US.
As you stated, today you're getting R1.68 per $1 in L.A.
If you exchanged it in Rio you'd get at least the current rate. Today it was 1.00 USD = 1.77520 BRL

If you got $5k+ to exchange, maybe ET can be so kind and introduce you to his Friend who will give you an even better rate. Last Friday it was R1.85 to 1.88.

Just remember, when you arrive, the rate maybe higher or lower. It changes daily.

Hobbying
10-29-07, 13:25
Get a bank that has no int'l ATM fees or an account with either Citibank or HSBC which is in Brasil.

I have HSBC so I get the best rate of the day.

Jan 156
10-29-07, 18:58
For the last 2 years, the airport rates sux and they charge comission. So you will lose some $. I only get enough for cab fare. For the rest of the info you provided - you are right on point

I guess that shows just how much it varies. I have usually got some at the airport and then later stuff at cambios and ATMs. I don't think I've had a single year where the airport (Terminal 2) wasn't a better rate than the cambios. But that is just my experience. One year my buddy was even gonna go back to the airport just to change money. Of course, it could be that each time I've been the rates all changed adversely by the time I got into town. I don't worry about commision so much as the final deal - how much I get for how much I shell out. My experience is mostly on UK money, although my buddy was changing dollars. The cambios also vary a lot and if I'm wanting more than a quick amount I usually ask at several. Generally I've found the Amex at Copa Palace is among the best (but it has poorer opening hours). Until I experience differently, I'll exchange a wad at the airport, keep some for Copa/Centro cambio exchanges when the ATMs are empty, and otherwise use ATMs. If you've got a system that works, best stick to it, even if it'd different to mine. There's also trade offs on minimum hassle / maximum bucks / maximum security and various combinations of those of course. For newbies - generally you can't change much into Reals before you enter Brasil (and it's always an awful rate outside of the country), and there are strict limits on how much you can take in. It's maybe worth getting a Brasilian bank account if you are a frequent visitor although I've never got round to it personally. But then again I'm not a big spender ;-)

El Greco
10-29-07, 21:44
I always keep some reais when leaving Brasil for my next visit.

Usually in the 300 range so I have enough for taxi and to spend on a weekend if necessary.

In termas, restaurants and supermarket I can use a credit card too.

El Greco

Java Man
10-30-07, 05:31
Cambios seem to be willing to give a small premium just now for dollars, however, I think it is mostly because Rio has a distinct lack of US gringos just now, saw many more Europeans and Asians. This was confirmed by a girl I took out of MP and used for a GF for 3-4 days, as she said American business was very bad right now.

Cheers,
Hoje

Hey, can all the US gringos stay away from Rio for my next trip, mid January. Maybe I can get R4 to $1USD rate. :)
I'd REALLY appreciate it. Thanks. LOL

Java Man
11-01-07, 00:11
Someone said by Dec the Dollar would exchange at R1.75.
Looks like their prediction may have been a lil high'
Per XE.com, today it dropped to:
1.00 USD = 1.73860 BRL

The Euro:
1.00 EUR = 2.51634 BRL

Our Canadian friends should be happy:
1.00 USD = 0.944847 CAD
1.00 CAD = 1.84116 BRL

I guess the Dollar could go up to R.175 by Dec.

Hobbying
11-01-07, 05:15
If it keeps on dropping it will no longer be a good value to visit and hobby in Brasil. I can remember when it use to be R4,00 to $1.

Johan007
11-01-07, 14:06
Well with some bad prospects in mind (intrest rates going down again in the US....dollar will fall more for sure if the EU will raise their intrestrates) Brasil is realy getting expensive. And NOT only for US mongers;-)
Fact is the Brasil economy is doing a pretty good job.....and will be doing so at least for the next 12-18 MONTHS to come......!!

I am afraid the USD will drop as low as R 1.60 in the nearby future...and will stay at that level at least for 6 months....maybe even longer. Remember the US needs MORE export....and that can be only achieved with a LOW USD rate;-)

So get ready to pay hefty prices if ye go to Brasil...of just stay at home in USA sexprison:-( OR just look for another destination;-)


cheers

Johan

Sperto
11-01-07, 14:53
About 10 years ago the Real was stronger than the US$.
I think it was R$ 1=US$ 1,05.

The Watcher
11-01-07, 16:12
About 10 years ago the Real was stronger than the US$.
I think it was R$ 1=US$ 1,05.

I was in Rio when it was .87 (maybe .85) to 1. Brasilians did not want dollars - they wanted Reais! Nonetheless, I was there.

Similarly, even though it is now more expensive than it has been in recent years, I will still be going to Brasil.

The bright side is the ability to go to Brasil. I can't do all the things that I used to do because of the exchange rate; however, the things that I can do are much better than things I can do in the US.

Off Road
11-01-07, 23:11
One depressing thing. I remember pulling out R$1000 and costing $450 or so a few years ago. Today it was $575.. still not bad. and look at what you get for your R$250 or $150 dollars, a GFE all night with an eager brazilian. I think in Vegas you get 1 hour with a lackluster hooker for that, or maybe more these days.

Johan007
11-02-07, 15:58
One depressing thing. I remember pulling out R$1000 and costing $450 or so a few years ago. Today it was $575.. still not bad. and look at what you get for your R$250 or $150 dollars, a GFE all night with an eager brazilian. I think in Vegas you get 1 hour with a lackluster hooker for that, or maybe more these days.

yes thats a real "bargain"....count that up for the 80 USD you pay for your hotel in Brasil and you'll have a set back for about 260 bucks a day!!! (with food etc..etc...)

Cheap!!!!!!!

btw what did you pay for your ticket???;-) 900 usd...more??

lets create another Costa Rica or Chile.....but then on a larger scale LOL.

Johan

Alex Deuce
11-02-07, 17:08
Someone said by Dec the Dollar would exchange at R1.75.
Looks like their prediction may have been a lil high'
Per XE.com, today it dropped to:
1.00 USD = 1.73860 BRL

The Euro:
1.00 EUR = 2.51634 BRL

Our Canadian friends should be happy:
1.00 USD = 0.944847 CAD
1.00 CAD = 1.84116 BRL

I guess the Dollar could go up to R.175 by Dec.


That was our economist prediction before they pumped another 41 billion dollars of funny money into the economy to help try and refinance this debt. One thing about Ronald Regan, When this started happening in the 80's he said fuck it! Stopped printing money and raised rates. Strengthend the US dollar! We are in for some shit!

Mr Enternational
11-03-07, 13:08
Get a bank that has no int'l ATM fees or an account with either Citibank or HSBC which is in Brasil.

I have HSBC so I get the best rate of the day.

Yeah no shit. I screwed around until after 10 last night when my girl needed gas in her car and all the HSBC ATMs were closed. I was forced to go to Citibank where they now charge a whopping R8 for people who don´t have an account there. I wanted to get R300 but all of the amounts were preset so I had to choose R350 which will transfer out of my account as US$204 as per the receipt.

Canuck9970
11-03-07, 13:34
I am lucky in that I have assets in both North America and Brasil and am basically shielded from the currency fluctuations. I think of the whole situation as one of those credit card commercials:

A return flight to Brasil - $1,200

7 nights at a hotel - $500

The ability to make love to some of the hottest women in the world - Priceless!

Amerioca
11-06-07, 16:25
What are the exchange rates at the cambios? How about at Help?

Off Road
11-06-07, 16:53
What are the exchange rates at the cambios? How about at Help?Citibank ATM was 1.75 this morning.

Java Man
11-06-07, 20:10
I saw this report on the noon news today. It's not only the GDP's in Rio....

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,308658,00.html

"Greedy Supermodel Gisele Bundchen

Take the world's richest catwalker, Gisele Bundchen, perhaps best known for her Victoria's Secret work. She is worth an estimated $150 million and she's just 27 years old! According to Forbes, she raked in $33 million last year through fees and endorsements.

The Brazilian beauty has signed a contract with American company Procter & Gamble to endorse its Pantene line of hair care products. Here's the kicker: She is asking to be paid for her hard work in euros, not dollars.

According to Bloomberg, Gisele's sister and manager said that contracts are more attractive when they offer euros because the dollar's future is uncertain.

The dollar has declined 34 percent in the past 6 years and the euro is stronger. Economists predict that the dollar will continue to weaken. Smart move financially, say experts, but bad PR move, especially when she's working for an American company.

I'm all for people earning money, but here's what gets me: She is working for an American company selling an American product. She has at least one home in America (in New York). She is working here, yet she doesn't want to be paid in our currency.

Gisele's agent told Bloomberg: "Gisele has contracts in dollars. When she works in Europe she gets paid in euros. When she works in the U.S. she gets paid in dollars."

So why doesn't Procter & Gamble insist that they pay her in dollars? Who knows. Maybe they don't want to risk losing her.

I know when I see the new hair care ads, I'll think about greedy Gisele, not how great Pantene makes her hair look.

I say P&G should dump Gisele and instead hire an American model who appreciates the Ohio-based company's business and is happy to take our currency. I'm sure an American model's hair is just as nice.

By Heather Nauert - Foxnews"

btw, Heather's a lil hottie, but probably has no BUNDA!!!

Hobbying
11-07-07, 07:16
I am lucky in that I have assets in both North America and Brasil and am basically shielded from the currency fluctuations. I think of the whole situation as one of those credit card commercials:

A return flight to Brasil - $1,200

7 nights at a hotel - $500

The ability to make love to some of the hottest women in the world - Priceless!I totally agree. But if the flight wasn't so long and it was still R4 to the USD, I'd be there every month!

Leeuwen
11-07-07, 11:06
Here's the kicker: She is asking to be paid for her hard work in euros, not dollars.

According to Bloomberg, Gisele's sister and manager said that contracts are more attractive when they offer euros because the dollar's future is uncertain.

The dollar has declined 34 percent in the past 6 years and the euro is stronger. Economists predict that the dollar will continue to weaken. Smart move financially, say experts, but bad PR move, especially when she's working for an American company.
When you are in position to negotiate you can ask to be paid in what currency you want. Besides, would you as American accept a contract where you would be paid in... say Argentine peso? U.S. Dollar was $1.4571 (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7081256.stm) to Euro today, a new all time low. Nothing but business. And aren't the Saudis still paid in dollars for their oil? *hint* (http://www.zawya.com/story.cfm/sidGN_30102007_10163646)

Cleanhead
11-07-07, 11:58
With the dollar weakness is anyone changing their travel plans or destinations?

I can't see the tide changing anytime soon.

Ryjerrob
11-07-07, 18:23
With the dollar weakness is anyone changing their travel plans or destinations?

I can't see the tide changing anytime soon.

I never thought much about the weakening dollar until now. I've tried to be optimistic, but this is crazy. If I hadn't already invested in airfare and some other things, I'd be going some other place.

No worries, I just got a phone call reminding me why I keep flying south so often.

Ryjer

Johan007
11-07-07, 20:00
When you are in position to negotiate you can ask to be paid in what currency you want. Besides, would you as American accept a contract where you would be paid in... say Argentine peso? U.S. Dollar was $1.4571 (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7081256.stm) to Euro today, a new all time low. Nothing but business. And aren't the Saudis still paid in dollars for their oil? *hint* (http://www.zawya.com/story.cfm/sidGN_30102007_10163646)

trust me number of (US) mongers to Brasil WILL fall......except for real Bunda adicts or realy RICH mongers;-)
Todays new USD/Euro rate: 1.4678..!!!
http://finance.yahoo.com/currency/convert?amt=1&from=EUR&to=USD&submit=Convert

Like is aid before...it's going down till 1.50...or maybe even more??? And it will stay there for a LONG time.

More and more countries openly discuss wheater it is still a good thing to receive their oil/gas revenues in the greenback;-)

There are also other countries were very nice and cheap girls can be found!!! Just think of it...
And I am also NOT going to Brasil...becoz also for european mongers prices are skyhigh right now in Brasil:-( Them bundas are nice BUT NOT that nice;-)


Johan

Off Road
11-07-07, 20:39
I guess I can look on the bright side since I live here. The more gringos that go elsewhere will drive the price of the girls down!!

Sperto
11-07-07, 21:17
And I am also NOT going to Brasil...becoz also for european mongers prices are skyhigh right now in Brasil:-( Them bundas are nice BUT NOT that nice;-)
Johan
I don't think the prices for european mongers are skyhigh.

My bunda-converter says that today a VM-bunda cost 9,8 Euro. One year ago it cost 9,2 Euro, two years ago 8,9 Euro. I don't think I will have to cut down on my bunda consumption.
http://finance.yahoo.com/currency/convert?from=BRL&to=EUR&amt=25&t=1y

American Warrior
11-08-07, 00:13
I guess I can look on the bright side since I live here. The more gringos that go elsewhere will drive the price of the girls down!!Although I do not live in Brasil my thinking is like Off Road that if you guys go elsewhere the price goes down. Lets make a deal I will be arriving November 16-26, 2007. Fella mongers please cancel your trip for those dates and I will let you know if the price went down. But than again I can always go to VM and see how many of you mongers I run into, that is always a budget helper for me.

Superion
11-08-07, 03:44
I guess I can look on the bright side since I live here. The more gringos that go elsewhere will drive the price of the girls down!!If you "live' there, you shouldn't have to pay for ass on a regular anyway.

Johan007
11-08-07, 16:44
I don't think the prices for european mongers are skyhigh.

My bunda-converter says that today a VM-bunda cost 9,8 Euro. One year ago it cost 9,2 Euro, two years ago 8,9 Euro. I don't think I will have to cut down on my bunda consumption.
http://finance.yahoo.com/currency/convert?from=BRL&to=EUR&amt=25&t=1yHa, ha! Well that's good for you buddy! I can't look into yer wallet. Only in mine.

I dunno man. But for 25 reais you hardly get a BJ in Rio!

Dude I have been seeing prices as high as 250 R for an hour. Go and read about it. See what I mean?

A buddy of mine came back from Forta 1 month ago and he paid 8 fucking reais for a BEER in a normal cafee. So you get a piece of ass for 1 hour for 25 reais? Wow. You must look like Bratt Pitt and speak fluently Portugese.

5 years ago I allready paid 5 euros for a streethooker in Forta. Now they ask 40 R.

What the heck is a VM bunda?

LOL,

Johan

Johan007
11-08-07, 16:47
If you "live' there, you shouldn't have to pay for ass on a regular anyway.Dude,

Trust me. As a guy you ALWAYS pay for ass. One way or another.

Marry a woman. And you get life. See hookies and it'll cost ye too. Question is what is cheaper/easier to handle? I would never again marry ANY woman. FTS.

You obviously never had a long term relationship with a LATINA. LOL (I did. In fact I was married to one!)

Take care.

Johan

Sperto
11-08-07, 17:51
heee well thast good for you buddy!!! I can't look into yer wallet...only in mine;-)
I dunno man...but for 25 reais you hardly get a BJ in rio!!!!
Dude i have been seeing prices as high as 250 R for an hour....go and read about it...see what I mean?
A buddy of mine came back from Forta 1 month ago and he paid 8 fucking reais for a BEER in a normal cafee. So you get a piece of ass for 1 hour for 25 reais???? Wowwww.....you must look like Bratt Pitt and speak fluently Portugese...
what the heck is a VM bunda???
LOL
chaoo
Johan
I don't know if you buy your bunda at VM, Help or at a terma, and it doesn't matter. My point was that the Euro contra the Real only become 6,1% more expensive than one year ago. I wouldn't call that "skyhigh". Brazil is still fairly cheap for european mongers.

Sure, a beer (33 ml) might cost you R$ 8 in Fortaleza, places like Zipi Bar, Europa etc, or it might cost you R$ 3 (600 ml) in a place next door. Whether you buy a beer or a bunda you always have cheaper options.

About budget-mongering, I think it's you that might need to do some reading. Then you might get the answer to what the top secret code "VM-bunda" means. :)

Bratt Pitt... does he have a brother called Brad? ;)

Exec Talent
11-08-07, 18:18
It has been said time and time again here. When the demand goes down, GDPs raise their prices to make up the difference!

Well, same thing at L'uomo. It was a ghost town there last night and I noticed when paying my bill that the discount is smaller for multiple sessions. The discount for 1 session was R$15 now it is R$10, for 2 sessions was R$35 now it is R$25. So you pay R$50 entrance if you take 1 girl, R$35 if you take 2. Of course, you still pay R$60 if you do not session.

At Monte Carlo, on the otherhand, entrance is free on Tuesdays simply by visiting their web site http://www.termasmontecarlo.com.br and putting in an e-mail address. You do not need to fill in the rest. You will get an e-mail which you need to print out and take with you. They also have a frequent visitors program where if you spend R$500 your next entrance is free.

American Warrior
11-08-07, 18:55
It has been said time and time again here. When the demand goes down, GDPs raise their prices to make up the difference!You mean to tell me the prices in VM are gonna go up, let me cancel my trip next week (lol)

Euro100
11-09-07, 01:12
heee well thast good for you buddy!!! I can't look into yer wallet...only in mine;-)

I dunno man...but for 25 reais you hardly get a BJ in rio!!!!

Dude i have been seeing prices as high as 250 R for an hour....go and read about it...see what I mean?
A buddy of mine came back from Forta 1 month ago and he paid 8 fucking reais for a BEER in a normal cafee. So you get a piece of ass for 1 hour for 25 reais???? Wowwww.....you must look like Bratt Pitt and speak fluently Portugese.
5 years ago I allready paid 5 euros for a streethooker in Forta. Now they ask 40 R...!!

what the heck is a VM bunda???
LOL

chaoo

Johan

OK, before this gets to the flaming stage, let me interject myself here: I confess, I am Brad Pitt. How do I know? Well, my Porto is really bad, but I still get pussy for R26 at VM. Here is the report:
http://www.internationalsexguide.info/forum/showpost.php?p=607717

How to get to that magical place? Follow this link to Sperto's excellent map:
http://internationalsexguide.info/forum/showpost.php?p=663532
VM = Villa Mimosa

Now, about the always paying for pussy: I am completely on your side here - you always pay, and that is particularly true when you are married :D

Sperto
11-09-07, 07:51
About raising prices. Maybe somebody who is a financial expert can explain the logic in the reasoning below.

I heard many GP's and Pousada(hotel)-owners explain their price-policies in the same way. They raise their prices in high-season because of a high demand. That's understandable.

In low-season when the business is slow, with very few clients, they also raise their prices to be able to make more money. To me it sounds weird. I´ve tried to explain to them to lower their prices, when the business is slow, to be able to compete and get more clients.

Perkele
11-09-07, 13:02
About raising prices. Maybe somebody who is a financial expert can explain the logic in the reasoning below.

I heard many GP's and Pousada(hotel)-owners explain their price-policies in the same way. They raise their prices in high-season because of a high demand. That's understandable.

In low-season when the business is slow, with very few clients, they also raise their prices to be able to make more money. To me it sounds weird. I´ve tried to explain to them to lower their prices, when the business is slow, to be able to compete and get more clients.

This is simple. Brasilians are idiots what comes to business and logical thinking.

Off Road
11-09-07, 13:12
This is simple. Brasilians are idiots what comes to business and logical thinking.I was having a similar conversation with buddies here yesterday. They have great expertiese at how to get money out of foriegners. This is a skill they all seem to have. It is not about logic or reasoning or business sense.

Sperto
11-09-07, 13:16
This is simple. Brasilians are idiots what comes to business and logical thinking.
The same thought only slipped through my mind a couple of thousands times (at least about the part with logical thinking).
Maybe I shouldn't expect to see a brazilian winning the Nobel Prize?

Jan 156
11-09-07, 14:31
I heard many GP's and Pousada(hotel)-owners explain their price-policies in the same way. They raise their prices in high-season because of a high demand. That's understandable.

In low-season when the business is slow, with very few clients, they also raise their prices to be able to make more money. To me it sounds weird. I´ve tried to explain to them to lower their prices, when the business is slow, to be able to compete and get more clients.

ROFL! They might not have the logic in the finance but they have plenty of 'reasons' so the logic is maybe in the necessity of giving the customer a 'reason.'

I never argue.

I just wait for them to change their mind (when they don't get a customer).

ps - I always assume a GDP will exhibit the logic of characters on a novela.

Jake993
11-09-07, 15:30
ROFL! They might not have the logic in the finance but they have plenty of 'reasons' so the logic is maybe in the necessity of giving the customer a 'reason.'

I never argue.

I just wait for them to change their mind (when they don't get a customer).

ps - I always assume a GDP will exhibit the logic of characters on a novela.I lived in Rio from 1992 - 1994. When I was there I work with a number of very well educated Brasileiros who tried to help me understand the Brazilian mind in terms of how they do business and how they govern. I was led to understand that a lot of the Brazilian commercial traditions have their roots in the way commerce is conducted in Portugal. Apparently, there is a book (I confess that I have never read it) called "The Art of Robbery". This book is supposed to outline the basics for a number of practices including government corruption, nepotism, corrupt business practices, etc, etc. What I came to realize (as a stupid gringo) was that there was in place a fairly sophisticated code of conduct that ensured the enrichment of key smart individuals and total exploitation of those who "didn't get it". Now, while I'm sure the same could be said for several Norte cultures as well, the way it is practiced in Brazil has to be considered an art form.

The art of extracting money from the unsuspecting is a time honored tradition in Brazil. It reminds me of a joke during my time in Rio.

"In the corruption Olympics, it seems that Brazil got the gold medal, Mexico the silver medal, and Argentina the bronze medal. But this ranking was so only because the Mexicans bribed the judges. "

Get it?

Cho 637
11-09-07, 18:46
I was having a similar conversation with buddies here yesterday. They have great expertiese at how to get money out of foriegners. This is a skill they all seem to have. It is not about logic or reasoning or business sense.

I don't think that it has anything to do with business or "logical thinking". What is involved is you are on vacation and most people do not hold themselves to the same standards as they do at home. You have a tendency to let your "guard" relax a little. Especially when you are there for the express purpose of sleeping with as many women as possible and you do not speak the language. After a few trips (or you get a little older (wiser?)) and take the time to learn at least the language fundamentals, you begin to learn and adapt to a different mindset and not let the little head do so much of the thinking. Otherwise you will continue to be viewed as "prey". Just my thoughts.

Cho 637
11-09-07, 18:50
I lived in Rio from 1992 - 1994. When I was there I work with a number of very well educated Brasileiros who tried to help me understand the Brazilian mind in terms of how they do business and how they govern. I was led to understand that a lot of the Brazilian commercial traditions have their roots in the way commerce is conducted in Portugal. Apparently, there is a book (I confess that I have never read it) called "The Art of Robbery". This book is supposed to outline the basics for a number of practices including government corruption, nepotism, corrupt business practices, etc, etc. What I came to realize (as a stupid gringo) was that there was in place a fairly sophisticated code of conduct that ensured the enrichment of key smart individuals and total exploitation of those who "didn't get it". Now, while I'm sure the same could be said for several Norte cultures as well, the way it is practiced in Brazil has to be considered an art form.

The art of extracting money from the unsuspecting is a time honored tradition in Brazil. It reminds me of a joke during my time in Rio.

"In the corruption Olympics, it seems that Brazil got the gold medal, Mexico the silver medal, and Argentina the bronze medal. But this ranking was so only because the Mexicans bribed the judges. "

Get it?

ROFLMAO!

That joke says it all!

Exec Talent
11-09-07, 18:55
I was at the front desk of a hotel when two sweet European women were asking about transportation to Buzios from Copa. The front desk clerk told them that they would need an "Official" taxi which would be $R500. I had been talking with them before and gave them the look. I said let me check for you and called one of my taxi friends. He told me it would be R$300 but for me or my friends R$250. I said I would let him know. I then went to the internet and told them better yet, take a cab to Centro and a bus to Buzios. Price R$23.10. The clerk them scrambled to make a few phones calls to show he was an honest guy.

One of the reasons that I am interested in doing business with Brazilians is that they are so used to ripping off toursists that I get all the business I can handle with them just by being honest. Shocks the hell out of them and they tell all their friends.

American Warrior
11-09-07, 18:59
I really do not care what the season, every GDP has a price, so I respect that. In my legal business we sizeup our clients and give them a price. Some clients like paying $300. 00 an hour and some will run away and price shop. There is a bottom line of what I will pay at Help (top 150R the whole nite) and since several girls know me they tend to drop the price (50R)--hopefully that holds true next week. Yes, I am a cheap bastard that is why I like VM. So the argument that if business is slow you drop the price is not always illogical. You forget they have something you want and you mongers can not keep an alliance because your little man gets in the way of reason and someone pays them their price. Look at my earlier post of forming a simi-protest and telling them you will pay a set price, the response was Quedog it will never work, but I believe in the Pussy Revolution.

Mongers Unite

Sperto
11-09-07, 19:45
They have great expertiese at how to get money out of foriegners.
This comment made me remember a situation on the ho-beach in front of Othon Palace 4 years ago. A gringo couple headed down from Othon. Totally pale, their read-and-white Othon towels in their hands, looking around and going "Wow, look at this... look at that...". In seconds the fiscal da natureza, the old guy with the elephant-balls, the short drug-selling guy with the ugly belly-button and Aldo were fighting over the couple. Shortie won. He pulled out two "lay-down chairs" to the couple and served them one coconut and one agua mineral. The couple had their drinks and took a quick dip and asked for the bill... 85 reais! The gringo-couple looked amazed but payed and walked away. Jack-pot!

Another fool... I met a gringo in Manaus. When he arrived with the boat he wanted to change money. He asked a guy selling scissors on the street if he knew where he could change US$ 1000. The helpful guy offered to change the money for him if he meanwhile could watch his scissors carefully. The gringo did so. He watched the small table with the scissors for 3 hours and then realized the guy wasn't coming back. Some people just ask for it...

Mangera
11-09-07, 21:06
This comment made me remember a situation on the ho-beach in front of Othon Palace 4 years ago. A gringo couple headed down from Othon. Totally pale, their read-and-white Othon towels in their hands, looking around and going "Wow, look at this... look at that...". In seconds the fiscal da natureza, the old guy with the elephant-balls, the short drug-selling guy with the ugly belly-button and Aldo were fighting over the couple. Shortie won. He pulled out two "lay-down chairs" to the couple and served them one coconut and one agua mineral. The couple had their drinks and took a quick dip and asked for the bill... 85 reais! The gringo-couple looked amazed but payed and walked away. Jack-pot!

Another fool... I met a gringo in Manaus. When he arrived with the boat he wanted to change money. He asked a guy selling scissors on the street if he knew where he could change US$ 1000. The helpful guy offered to change the money for him if he meanwhile could watch his scissors carefully. The gringo did so. He watched the small table with the scissors for 3 hours and then realized the guy wasn't coming back. Some people just ask for it...
Now that is some funny stuff. I would have actually paid a fee to sit across the street from the table of scissors to watch this guy for 3 hours, ofcourse with a skol in hand. Great story, and unfortunately this will contnue to happen.

George90
11-09-07, 23:24
About raising prices. Maybe somebody who is a financial expert can explain the logic in the reasoning below.

I heard many GP's and Pousada(hotel)-owners explain their price-policies in the same way. They raise their prices in high-season because of a high demand. That's understandable.

In low-season when the business is slow, with very few clients, they also raise their prices to be able to make more money. To me it sounds weird. I´ve tried to explain to them to lower their prices, when the business is slow, to be able to compete and get more clients.

I work in education and have spoken with several international students from developing countries. The mindset you describe is widespread in their countries as well.

I believe the "logic" stems from the generally personal way they interact with their customers. Often haggling and bargaining is involved; start with a high price and meet somewhere at a fair price.

Westerners don't bargain at all. We see a price and either accept it and buy, or refuse it and don't buy. We think that if there are few customers we should lower our prices and that way attract more business. We believe that we have few cusomers because they are viewing a high price and deciding not to buy.

Brazilians, and other third worlders, don't see it that way. They don't believe there are few customers because their prices are high. There are few customers just because. But when a customer does come, they need to start haggling at a higher price so that they reach a deal at a price that gets them a bit more money. Ergo, they raise prices when business is slow.

Off Road
11-10-07, 05:22
george90.. very good, and accurate observation.

Sperto
11-10-07, 09:46
George90,
Thank you very much your answer. Very interesting.

Mr Enternational
11-11-07, 07:42
dude,

trust me...as a guy you ALWAYS pay for ass....one way or another;-)

marry a woman...and you get life.....see hookies and it'll cost ye too.... question is what is cheaper/easier to handle?
I would never again marry ANY woman. FTS.

you obviously never had a long term relationship with a LATINA......LOL
(I did....in fact I was married to one!!!!)

take care.

Johan

A wise man once told me that "If it flies, fucks, or floats, rent it!" Otherwise it will cost you more in the longrun.

Euro100
11-11-07, 17:20
A wise man once told me that "If it flies, fucks, or floats, rent it!" Otherwise it will cost you more in the longrun.

Now there is a motto to live by! :D
I wish I would have talked to this wise man before I got married. (or at least before I got married the second and the third time ...)

Euro100
11-11-07, 17:36
I believe the "logic" stems from the generally personal way they interact with their customers. Often haggling and bargaining is involved; start with a high price and meet somewhere at a fair price.

Westerners don't bargain at all. We see a price and either accept it and buy, or refuse it and don't buy. We think that if there are few customers we should lower our prices and that way attract more business. We believe that we have few cusomers because they are viewing a high price and deciding not to buy.

I totally agree with the first part. Once I was traveling through Turkey and stopped at a leather shop outside the great bazzar in Istanbul. I picked out a couple of really nice handmade leather bags (not "leather-upper" but real solid leather) and asked for the price. The shopkeeper whipped out a pad and pencil and wrote down $300. That was actually not too bad, but I took the pencil and crossed out one zero. He then smiled, ordered tea; I offered cigarettes; we sat down and smoked and had tea. Neither one of us spoke the other's language, but we had great fun in negotiating, using hand signs and facial expressions. In the end we arrived at $140, which also included two nice leather belts. Both of us felt like winners. That's the way business is done there. It's only a rip-off, if you take the first offer, but that's your own fault. (20 years later I still have those two bags, by the way)

Now, in the "West" clearly consumer goods are bought at the price set by the seller in the store, and you usually don't haggle. But if you are in business, then the B2B transactions are clearly open to negotiations, too. If you pay the ask in the first bid, you are just as much a sucker as the guy that pays $300 for the two leather bag in Istanbul. "You don't get what you deserve, but you get what you negotiate" is taught in business schools in the US, too.

Pipe Layer99
11-11-07, 18:47
For the last few days I have been getting 1.75 to the U.S. dollar.

Last night I got 1.8 at Help - go figure. It amazes me that I usually get a better rate when I go into Help.

Java Man
11-11-07, 19:33
Donnie D:
per xe.com
for today 11/11/07

1.00 USD = 1.75215 BRL

it's not stable daily fluctuations, maybe hourly!
Help, also L'omos, (so i hear) give slightly better rates.

Bob747
11-11-07, 22:18
I have been here for two years, and I notice that the rates change almost inversly proportional to the US stock markets. When the DOW is down, the rate goes up. Brazil thinks that the are protected from global economic instability, but in reality, they suffer along with the rest of the world when the US economy tanks. The only problem now, is that to prevent a recession, the Feds need to cut rates again, but if they do that, the dollar is sure to fall again, leading to a subsequent rise in the price of bunda. The cheaper termas, vila mimosa, and casas are going to see a boost in business if the dollar gets any lower.

Bob747
11-11-07, 22:25
I have noticed that the exchange rate is inversly proportional to the us stock markets. As the DOW drops the rates improves. The only problem is the next time the fed meets, they may cut rates, causing the dollar to fall even more, and causing the price of bunda to go up.

Euro100
11-12-07, 00:49
For the last few days I have been getting 1.75 to the U.S. dollar.

Last night I got 1.8 at Help - go figure. It amazes me that I usually get a better rate when I go into Help.

That is ALWAYS the case. I always change at either Help or L'uomo, and every time they give me a better rate than the banks or the hotel.

FLRoadWarrior
11-12-07, 15:26
i got 1.84 at helpee last weekend.that was the best rate.i only changed a $100. we also got 1.79 at a local exchange house last friday. we changed around $3000 and got the better rate.

frw

Alex Deuce
11-12-07, 15:50
I have been here for two years, and I notice that the rates change almost inversly proportional to the US stock markets. When the DOW is down, the rate goes up. Brazil thinks that the are protected from global economic instability, but in reality, they suffer along with the rest of the world when the US economy tanks. The only problem now, is that to prevent a recession, the Feds need to cut rates again, but if they do that, the dollar is sure to fall again, leading to a subsequent rise in the price of bunda. The cheaper termas, vila mimosa, and casas are going to see a boost in business if the dollar gets any lower.

That use to be the case. Until china took over as their main customer. The Real is in inverse proportionality to the american dollar and gdp. Recent phenomemum. Absolutely blowing all paradigms out of the water. Don't try and play optimist with the current situation. We are fucked! And lowering rates is going to fuck us even more. Our national debt is going to balloon to high hell thanks to Bushy. The data that the current administration is giving is outright wrong. Look at CBO data and compare it to the white house info. You will notice some glaring omissions and if you took any economics classes (from your level of understanding, I am sure that you have) you will notice some extremely flawed assumptions in both sets of data.


I am in Salvador as I type! And i do not care what the exchange is as long as pretty hot women keep offering their asses to me! As far as the price of bunda going up, thats your least worry. Just paying for the plane ticket after the 911 subsidies to airlines is what's going to hurt. You will probably wind up paying more for your plane ticket as you will for all the pussy you buy your entire trip.

The Watcher
11-12-07, 16:41
That is ALWAYS the case. I always change at either Help or L'uomo, and every time they give me a better rate than the banks or the hotel.

You may always get a better rate at Help than at the banks or the hotel but Help is not always the best rate. For many years that was true, but this year, I got a better rate from a cambio than I did at Help.

In these crazy financial times, I would check all sources of changing money before deciding to change money at just one place.

Mangera
11-12-07, 16:48
With all this talk about the decreasing value of the dollar over the last couple of years and with no limit in the horizon, I have a short term plan or strategy. I will be in Rio next week and I also plan on heading back for my 4-6 week stay in June-July of next year.

I plan on taking a few extra thousand dollars cash on this first trip, exchanging the cash at the current rate (gambling on the continued decrease in value of the dollar) so when I return next year, I will have my reals in hand with the higher rate from the previous year. Its a gamble, but the odds are definitely in my favor.

Honestly, I have no clue as to what the dollar will be fetching by June of next year, but by following the decrease over the last 6-8 months, it could be in the 1.50 range by june of 2008. Just a guess. Any thoughts on this strategy?

Bob747
11-12-07, 22:07
Alex,

I agree with you completly with regards to the fact that the economic policy of the bush administration is highly suspect. They have taken a mighty economy and turned it to sh*t in 8 years, a stark contrast to the Clinton years. Be it the dot com boom, or the democratic economic policy, I don't know, but I do know this for sure; the price of pussy in Rio has risen, which is bad for all. I think that the fed is in a hard spot, trying to keep to dollar afloat, while at the same time trying to prevent a recession. They have their work cut out for them. If China does decide to shift their reserves to the Euro, I feel sorry for the US, as we will lose this undeclared economic war in the long run. We outsourced EVERYTHING and now we are reaping the REWARDS? .

THe problem is that the average garota is ignorant (both a good and bad thing) and does not follow financial news, so they will continue asking for 300-400 reais, even when the dollar is one to one with the real, which for americans is unaccepable.

Nice talking to a person that really understands economic policy. Good hunting in salvador!

Bob747
11-12-07, 22:18
I think that even though the value is low (1000 dollars), the potential risk in betting your money in the money market is risky at best. Look at the historical value of the real, and you will see that large fluctuations are the norm. The Brazilian economy is doing weel right now, but they suffer that same problems as the Chinese in that they can manange their way out of a paper bag. If you doubt this go to any grocery store or bank here in Brazil. Their management complicates things the extreme. There was a study doen a few yews ago tat determined that most chinese management creaty policy based on the gut feeling of the general manager rather than data. Brazil is worse as everyone wants to feel important, thus driving the company, many times, in the wrong direction.

Laphorn
11-12-07, 23:31
That use to be the case. Until china took over as their main customer. The Real is in inverse proportionality to the american dollar and gdp. Recent phenomemum. Absolutely blowing all paradigms out of the water. Don't try and play optimist with the current situation. We are fucked! And lowering rates is going to fuck us even more. Our national debt is going to balloon to high hell thanks to Bushy. The data that the current administration is giving is outright wrong. Look at CBO data and compare it to the white house info. You will notice some glaring omissions and if you took any economics classes (from your level of understanding, I am sure that you have) you will notice some extremely flawed assumptions in both sets of data.

I am in Salvador as I type! And i do not care what the exchange is as long as pretty hot women keep offering their asses to me! As far as the price of bunda going up, thats your least worry. Just paying for the plane ticket after the 911 subsidies to airlines is what's going to hurt. You will probably wind up paying more for your plane ticket as you will for all the pussy you buy your entire trip.Preach my man I totally agree.

The reality is brasil will be there and so will I.

Veterano
11-13-07, 00:56
Yeah, if you end up not going for any reason, you will be stuck with a bunch of Reals you don't need

Lot of downside to hypothetically save a few bucks

Veterano

Mr Enternational
11-13-07, 04:14
Yeah, if you end up not going for any reason, you will be stuck with a bunch of Reals you don't need
Lot of downside to hypothetically save a few bucks
Veterano

Makes more sense to just put the money into an interest bearing account rather than converting it and sitting on it.

El Austriaco
11-13-07, 16:10
The problem is that the average garota is ignorant (both a good and bad thing) and does not follow financial news, so they will continue asking for 300-400 reais, even when the dollar is one to one with the real, which for americans is unaccepable.
Why would she ask for anything less simply because the USD is tanking? She has expenses in Brazil, denominated in R$, which are also rising with inflation: rent, food, clothing, transportation, medical care, etc. etc. Neither of them is directly impacted by whatever the dollar does.

And if Americans are less inclined to purchase her services because of the increased cost for them, she does exactly what some mongers here on this board have reported: she switches to another preferred customer segment: clients with EUR, who have been less impacted by exchange rate development. Or any other currency that fits that profile, for that matter. And as long as she can easily replace the lost business from Americans waving USD by other nationalities throwing other currencies at her, everything is fine and dandy for her.

So the way I see it, it is the drop in the dollar which slowly but surely prices the average US monger out of the range of the more upscale Brazilian P4P provider (by upscale, I mean price-wise, not necessarily quality-wise). The girls are just trying to make ends meet the best they can considering their circumstances. Just like any monger does.

In other words, it is guys getting paid in USD that are taking the hit. The girls who get paid in Reais and don't really miss the business, they don't.

EA

Jake993
11-13-07, 20:08
In other words, it is guys getting paid in USD that are taking the hit. The girls who get paid in Reais and don't really miss the business, they don't.

EAEA,

I don't take issue with anything you say; it all makes economic sense.

But it sounds so ugly when you put it in such blunt terms.

Alas, it's true - the truth hurts.

But no matter how you slice it, it's still cheaper than Moscow and I can't wait to come down this weekend and spend my "shrinking" US dollars. I've decided to change my habits to adjust for the falling dollar. To ensure the same amount of P4P, I will eat and drink less. Perhaps I will take my meals at the buffet table at L'uomo!!!!!

Jake

Mangera
11-13-07, 22:47
I think that even though the value is low (1000 dollars), the potential risk in betting your money in the money market is risky at best. Look at the historical value of the real, and you will see that large fluctuations are the norm. The Brazilian economy is doing weel right now, but they suffer that same problems as the Chinese in that they can manange their way out of a paper bag. If you doubt this go to any grocery store or bank here in Brazil. Their management complicates things the extreme. There was a study doen a few yews ago tat determined that most chinese management creaty policy based on the gut feeling of the general manager rather than data. Brazil is worse as everyone wants to feel important, thus driving the company, many times, in the wrong direction.
If you understood a 1000.00 dollars, I must restate what I mean't. I plan on exchanging an extra 3000-5000 dollars. Sorry if I did not explain myself correctly.

Tigers787
11-14-07, 17:47
Last week at HSBC I pulled 1000r and it said in us was 576 and it showed 1. 73 to 1. The lowest I ever seen.

Tiger

Hobbying
11-14-07, 23:01
Last week at HSBC I pulled 1000r and it said in us was 576 and it showed 1. 73 to 1. The lowest I ever seen.

TigerIts 1.73 today 11/14. If it goes down to 1.5 I may not go to SP next year. The girls are still a good deal but not if I include airfare and hotel for a week etc.

Pana Nyc
11-15-07, 19:03
I've decided to change my habits to adjust for the falling dollar. To ensure the same amount of P4P, I will eat and drink less.

Jake
I will also be doing this myself for next up coming trip to Rio Im thinking just like you Jake!!!

El Austriaco
11-15-07, 19:28
I will also be doing this myself for next up coming trip to Rio Im thinking just like you Jake!!!
You know, guys, you don't necessarily have to eat or drink LESS, just in different places, especially away from the usual Copacabana P4P haunts. For example, I never understood why so many mongers would wine and dine at Meia Pataca or Balcony (even though it's convenient, I agree, with the girls there and everything): the food is outrageously priced and not all that good, to be perfectly honest. Just around the corner from MP, on Miguel Lemos between Rua Aires Saldanha and Av. da Nossa Senhora de Copacabana, there's a galeto (cheap neighborhood restaurant) which offers fixed-price meals for somewhere between R$ 8.00 and R$ 12.00 (different types of meat with beans and rice, sometimes fries; prices as of 2006). If you spend quite a bit of time in Copacabana, the savings add up quickly, compared with the R$ 30.00 or so price tag for any entree at MP. There are tons of galetos in other areas all over Copacabana, too. There are other options, too: the kilo places have been mentioned quite a bit, the all-you-can eat rodizios are always a good choice if you are really, really hungry, and the suco bars are just great. IMHO, there's really no reason to go hungry in Rio... regardless of your budget.

And the same goes for drinking, too: as soon as you venture away from the Copacabana beachfront joints, and especially away from the usual Copacabana P4P hangouts, prices drop dramatically. The last time I was there, back in April 2006, around the corner from where I lived (not too far from L'Uomo, in the Bairro Peixoto area of Copacabana, in the vicinity of the Botafogo tunnel and right around the corner from 2A2), a choppe would set me back R$ 2.50. A large bottle of whatever beer I wanted (Antarctica, Skol, Brahma, whatever not): R$ 4.00. Compare that to any Western country. I doubt nominal prices have risen dramatically ever since.

In other words, while the dollar has dropped quite a bit (and there's preciously little we can do about it, other than ***** and moan), there's quite a bit we can do to mitigate its impact on our bottom line. Food-wise, drink-wise, even hotel-wise. Once you come to the conclusion that staying opposite the beach in Copacabana might not be the wisest choice any more, you can save quite a bit on hotels, too. And especially once you also factor in the fact that P4P is also cheaper anywhere else in Rio, you might just come to the same conclusion that I came to last year:

http://www.internationalsexguide.info/forum/showpost.php?p=458439&postcount=857
http://www.internationalsexguide.info/forum/showpost.php?p=458440&postcount=858
http://www.internationalsexguide.info/forum/showpost.php?p=458442&postcount=525

After all, come to think of it, all of this might actually be a positive thing. As Brazil is getting more expensive, relatively speaking, for US mongers, more and more should look beyond the easy and obvious to cut down on costs. It's not all that hard, really. In the process, they might just discover a whole new world beyond the usual tourist zoo which, in the end and in IMHO, is just as fascinating and intriguing and actually much closer to the real Brazil than anything one is bound to experience in Copacabana.

EA

Edward M
11-20-07, 03:10
Anybody know what they are giving for US$ now? I am trying to decide if it is worth bring a bunch with me or just get reais from the ATM.

Ryjerrob
11-20-07, 09:17
Last week at HSBC I pulled 1000r and it said in us was 576 and it showed 1. 73 to 1. The lowest I ever seen.

Tiger

I think your math is inaccurate. It appears as if you divided. You should multiply the amount of USD by the exchange rate. This will give you a general idea of what you're looking at. I hope this helps.

ryjer

Off Road
11-20-07, 22:07
I think your math is inaccurate. It appears as if you divided. You should multiply the amount of USD by the exchange rate. This will give you a general idea of what you're looking at. I hope this helps.

ryjer
His numbers were correct. You withdraw R$1000 and it will cost you about $575 (USD).
Your statement is also correct, $575USD times 1.73 would be about R$1000

The Cane
11-21-07, 00:39
Last Friday I was able to get 1.8 to 1.

That´s the best I could do after checking at 5 different cambios.

Dboy
11-21-07, 01:56
Edward M,

I used a CitiBank ATM a few days ago. R1.73 to $1 plus a R8 "Convenience Fee". So more like R1.70. (My bank charges me per transaction also).

A random Casa de Cambio payed R1.70 - might do better at the right one.

Both Luomos and Help are paying R1.80. One guy changed $400 at Loumos. I'm told Help is $200 max.

Edward M
11-21-07, 05:04
Edward M,

I used a CitiBank ATM a few days ago. R1.73 to $1 plus a R8 "Convenience Fee". So more like R1.70. (My bank charges me per transaction also).

A random Casa de Cambio payed R1.70 - might do better at the right one.

Both Luomos and Help are paying R1.80. One guy changed $400 at Loumos. I'm told Help is $200 max.Did he change $400 (and leave with R$720) or did he just pay $400 towards his bill?

Carlos Primeros
11-22-07, 13:44
USD = 1,70 Real
Euro = 2,60 Real

I have checked several dolleiros, they all quaote more or less the same

Java Man
11-24-07, 12:11
Anyone notice the dollar has gone up slightly the last few days?

per xe.com

1.00 USD = 1.80150 BRL

Carlos Primeros
11-24-07, 14:14
unfortunately the dolleiros are not impressed with it.

They still pay a lousy rate of 1,72-173

Dboy
11-24-07, 23:56
Quote:
Did he change $400 (and leave with R$720) or did he just pay $400 towards his bill?

He changed $400 for R$720 on the way in. Not sure what he did on the way out, but it was hours later. There didn't seem to be a limit.

Alex Deuce
11-26-07, 01:13
Quote:
Did he change $400 (and leave with R$720) or did he just pay $400 towards his bill?

He changed $400 for R$720 on the way in. Not sure what he did on the way out, but it was hours later. There didn't seem to be a limit.

Traders manipulating the american holiday, watch mon-friday.

Exec Talent
11-27-07, 17:30
People have asked, so here is an article on ways to benefit from markets other than the US. The advice is free and you are getting what you pay for it. As always, invest at your own risk.

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/MutualFunds/WhereToInvestOverseasNow.aspx

Full disclosure: I have investments in both Janus Overseas and Vanguard FTSE All-World Except US ETF.

Mangera
11-27-07, 18:14
I just exchanged a few thousand dollars today for my next trip to Brazil. I was able to get a 1.81r in Ipanema. There is a travel/casa cambio in the Ipanema 4000 shopping building. Its in Rua Visconde de Piraja.

They offered less from the get go, but when they realized the amount I was willing to exchange, they gave me 1.81r for the dollar.

So I am banking on the premise that the dollar will continue to decline further. What a piece of crap! lol

I go back home tommorrow knowing I have yet another reason to head back to Brasil...........to spend my reals. Laters gentlemen and any brasileras that may be reading this forum :)

Devileyes
11-27-07, 19:53
I like to look at this site once a month or so - gives a good idea of where the dollar vs the real is moving.

http://www.x-rates.com/d/BRL/USD/graph120.html

Java Man
11-27-07, 20:02
I just exchanged a few thousand dollars today for my next trip to Brazil. I was able to get a 1.81r in Ipanema. There is a travel/casa cambio in the Ipanema 4000 shopping building. Its in Rua Visconde de Piraja.



R1.81?!

per xe.com Todays exhange rate:
1.00 USD =1.83650 BRL

It's been rising the last few days. Looks like the cambios are short changing. If you had used ET's guy, maybe you woulda got a better rate.

Almotu
11-27-07, 23:52
R1.81?! per xe.com Todays exhange rate:
1.00 USD =1.83650 BRL
It's been rising the last few days. Looks like the cambios are short changing. If you had used ET's guy, maybe you woulda got a better rate.The rate they post is the rate for Interbank transfers which is not available to regular consumers. The street rate is usually 1-2% less (ie. 1.83650 * .98 = 1.79977) so sounds about right. BTW, even if the .026R difference is true, he would have gotten ripped off for 26R per each $1,000usd. So maybe we shouldn't sweat the details.

Alex Deuce
11-28-07, 01:20
R1.81?!

per xe.com Todays exhange rate:
1.00 USD =1.83650 BRL

It's been rising the last few days. Looks like the cambios are short changing. If you had used ET's guy, maybe you woulda got a better rate.

First time being dead as wrong about something put an extra 150US in my pocket!

Mangera
11-28-07, 03:15
The rate they post is the rate for Interbank transfers which is not available to regular consumers. The street rate is usually 1-2% less (ie. 1.83650 * .98 = 1.79977) so sounds about right. BTW, even if the .026R difference is true, he would have gotten ripped off for 26R per each $1,000usd. So maybe we shouldn't sweat the details.

I assumed people were already aware of this, but obviously not. Thank you for taking the time to explain reality to some of people who read this forum.

Java Man
11-28-07, 07:11
The rate I see on Xe.com is the rate I get at the Citibank ATM. I'm not in Rio now, but that's been my experience.

Thanos
11-28-07, 23:38
R1.81?!

per xe.com Todays exhange rate:
1.00 USD =1.83650 BRL

It's been rising the last few days. Looks like the cambios are short changing. If you had used ET's guy, maybe you woulda got a better rate.Actually the rates are down to 1.79.

Thanos
11-28-07, 23:42
Actually the rate is down to 1.79, but there are several cambios in Copa giving 1.83.

Java Man
11-29-07, 06:46
thanos:
where did you see the rate at 1.79?

Its up to $1USD = R1.84930 at xe.com