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GoodEnough
10-07-16, 07:56
Nice to see a balanced editorial today.
So far Duterte has been running around like a toddler without a nappy, the palace following behind cleaning up his droppings. I think we all hope for better.
http://www.sunstar.com.ph/cebu/opinion/2016/10/06/pooled-editorial-first-100-days-extreme-caution-ahead-502123It's a reasonably balanced editorial, but says very little that hasn't been said over the past two or three weeks on this board. It does seem strange that--other than the war on drugs--no new initiatives in any of the areas mentioned by the editorial have been announced. One area the editorial didn't cite, and one which in my view warrants intensive attention, is the revision or replacement of laws that discourage or outright prevent foreign investment. I'm at someone of a loss to explain this since, when interviewed by various foreign Chambers of Commerce prior to the election, Duterte recognized the problem, and seemed to be in favor of making the changes necessary to attract job-creating foreign investment.
I've been in Angeles the for past couple of days, with the time spent largely visiting a good friend from Canada. I've had several discussions with foreigners--all of them from Western Europe--whom I know well and who live here, and they're as bewildered by the recent derogatory comments as anyone, though they're not uniformly upset by the drug-related killings. Most of the Filipinos to whom I've spoken here aren't concerned much at all, and seem much more worried about the renewed raids on bars.
As to AV's concern that his quality of life may be eventually impaired, I'm not nearly as concerned. Though I live in Davao, and he lives elsewhere, I've neither read nor heard anything that would lead me to conclude that the overall expatriate life quality here will change for the worse any time soon. I'm old enough to remember coming here for brief visits during the dying days of the Marcos areégime and believe me, the situation then was more dangerous and lots more tense that the situation now.
I wonder what will happen once it becomes obvious, as it inevitably will, that the war on drugs has failed to significantly undermine drug manufacturing. We tried an expensive (though less brutal) war on drugs in the US, which was a total failure. The Thais declared an equally brutal and ultimately futile similar war as did Mexico and Columbia. None of them achieved a victory.
The postponement of local elections doens't both me much as I don't believe it will precipitate any violence or social unrest.
GE.
RP government true to form, refuses to pay sixty odd million pesos in waste disposal fees to the ROK owned (note) waste disposal facility. ROK owners then propose to convert to golf course. Well played ROK's. Always playing the long game.
http://www.sunstar.com.ph/cebu/local-news/2016/10/07/inayawan-landfills-conversion-golf-course-eyed-502199
Soapy Smith
10-08-16, 01:56
RP government true to form, refuses to pay sixty odd million pesos in waste disposal fees to the ROK owned (note) waste disposal facility. ROK owners then propose to convert to golf course. Well played ROK's. Always playing the long game.
http://www.sunstar.com.ph/cebu/local-news/2016/10/07/inayawan-landfills-conversion-golf-course-eyed-502199Makes sense to me.
This long game relates to Koreans and other East Asian cultures. Several decades ago a Dutch social psychologist named Hofstede studied employees in approximately 80 different cultures in which IBM had operations. He initially identified four dimensions that he thought could distinguish among the various national cultures: masculinity-femininity, individualism-collectivism, uncertainty avoidance, and power distance (explaining them is next week's lesson; and yes, this model has been around a long time, but it is still actively used, and Hofstede, now in his 80's, is still very much with it). Later, a Canadian scholar in Hong Kong, Michael Bond, convinced him that an additional factor relating to "Confucian dynamism" was needed to show what was truly unique about East Asian cultures. They later decided to call it long-term time orientation.
The United States, by comparison, is generally tied to a short-term orientation: two year election cycles, firing and rehiring corporate CEOs based on dropoff for a single bad quarterly report, and so on. Korea is near the upper end of the long-term orientation scale, and the Philippines is at the opposite end, I. E. , very much oriented to the short term. So yes, taking the long game comes naturally to the Koreans, and not Filipinos.
(I might travel a little further down this road to suggest that Filipinos' support for killing off druggies—at the expense of longer-term consequences from the erosion of rule of law (yes, yes GE, they had only a rough semblance of rule-of-law prior to Duterte)—is also consistent with this reading of cultural time orientation.).
Another practical matter: a golf game in South Korea costs the player more than $400 US. This makes cheaper courses in places like the Philippines very attractive. And, of course, Cebu is already a favorite destination for English language schools for Koreans.
https://geert-hofstede.com/
Makes sense to me.
This long game relates to Koreans and other East Asian cultures. Several decades ago a Dutch social psychologist named Hofstede studied employees in approximately 80 different cultures in which IBM had operations. He initially identified four dimensions that he thought could distinguish among the various national cultures: masculinity-femininity, individualism-collectivism, uncertainty avoidance, and power distance (explaining them is next week's lesson; and yes, this model has been around a long time, but it is still actively used, and Hofstede, now in his 80's, is still very much with it). Later, a Canadian scholar in Hong Kong, Michael Bond, convinced him that an additional factor relating to "Confucian dynamism" was needed to show what was truly unique about East Asian cultures. They later decided to call it long-term time orientation.
The United States, by comparison, is generally tied to a short-term orientation: two year election cycles, firing and rehiring corporate CEOs based on dropoff for a single bad quarterly report, and so on. Korea is near the upper end of the long-term orientation scale, and the Philippines is at the opposite end, I. E. , very much oriented to the short term. So yes, taking the long game comes naturally to the Koreans, and not Filipinos.
(I might travel a little further down this road to suggest that Filipinos' support for killing off druggiesat the expense of longer-term consequences from the erosion of rule of law (yes, yes GE, they had only a rough semblance of rule-of-law prior to Duterte)is also consistent with this reading of cultural time orientation.).
Another practical matter: a golf game in South Korea costs the player more than $400 US. This makes cheaper courses in places like the Philippines very attractive. And, of course, Cebu is already a favorite destination for English language schools for Koreans.
https://geert-hofstede.com/The US short term mentality is a relatively recent phenomenon. The asian baby tigers modeled their business structures on the long term thinking looking post WWII US conservative business model which tax wise enforced all those long term outlooks as short term income taking was penalized. It held mostly true here until the hedonistic baby boomers eventually took over the reins of the country's tax writing and regulaltory structure form the infinite more civic minded WWII generation. Then all hell broke loose. Making money became rewarded rather than building businesses.
Also the asian countries are infinitely more homogeneous than the US and all of Europe. You are looking at a historical snapshot in the world history citing Confucianism. Korea has only been a modern world integrated capitalist economy for a couple of generations. Japan slightly longer has stagnated for years.
In 30 to 50 years lets see if Confucianism holds up as societies get fat and happy and globalism and world capital and the forces of cheap labor worldwide continue to depress labor markets. Well not me I will be dead by then.
The old 'Protestant work ethic' of just a couple of generations ago which served us for for generations would have held its own just fine versus Confucian Dynamism. Its normalization of greed and re writing of tax and laws that have encouraged the cooking of the golden goose for short term personal gain here in the US.
The Phils is a hopeless basketcase whose entire social and economic retardation can be traced directly to its adherence to medeival Catholicism and unlimited family size due to utter lack of birth control. No asian Tiger got its shit together until it first got control of its birth rate.
Lest anyone think there is any biased religious component to my argument I am an agnostic. Back in the day the catholics, jew ethics were mostly all the same as the old protestant work ethic, its just an old phrase. They are all just isms to me.
Wicked Roger
10-08-16, 03:49
RP government true to form, refuses to pay sixty odd million pesos in waste disposal fees to the ROK owned (note) waste disposal facility. ROK owners then propose to convert to golf course. Well played ROK's. Always playing the long game.
http://www.sunstar.com.ph/cebu/local-news/2016/10/07/inayawan-landfills-conversion-golf-course-eyed-502199This is political and is not the RP government per se it is the Cebu council. The issue is whether there was a legal contract and if so the price. This was done during the time of Osmena's rival Rama so all sorts of stupid political rubbish is thrown into the mix. If you follow Cebu politics and read the news you will see the papers criticise him and the former mayor for a lack of initiative as they both seem to spend more time trying to settle scores with each other than moving anything forward (eg it is claimed in the local press that since regaining power. He has been mayor many time as a dynasty. He has focused distribution to his supporters not barangays of his rival).
The smell from the waste tip is now so bad school kids wear masks during class so doing anything with it is better than nothing. Also given this is the Philippines am sure there are incentives being dangled but who cares as long as the smell goes away (recently residents in the area were said to thinking of suing the city due to it lack of action on this matter).
Put things into context.
Wicked Roger
10-08-16, 03:56
Does seem that the US is not listening to you Amavida (nor other nations for sure) as the US has again announced more aid to the country.
http://www.philstar.com/headlines/2016/10/08/1631489/us-provide-180-m-aid-philippines-next-year
While it says it uses the Leahy law etc I can bet it won't really do that much to follow up unless it hits them in the face directly as proof, and I can't see how they can prove when even De Lima can't and now she is being screwed every way at the moment.
So maybe the idea that he is playing games to get more attention and focus / aid from the US is true. Who knows. But he seems to get attention for sure.
Politics is a dirty game whenever you are in the world and some do it better than others, some tougher than others, as long as there is some end game in mind. Jury is still out on that am sure.
Wicked Roger
10-08-16, 04:05
I've had several discussions with foreigners--all of them from Western Europe--whom I know well and who live here, and they're as bewildered by the recent derogatory comments as anyone, though they're not uniformly upset by the drug-related killings. Most of the Filipinos to whom I've spoken here aren't concerned much at all, and seem much more worried about the renewed raids on bars.
As to AV's concern that his quality of life may be eventually impaired, I'm not nearly as concerned. Though I live in Davao, and he lives elsewhere, I've neither read nor heard anything that would lead me to conclude that the overall expatriate life quality here will change for the worse any time soon. I'm old enough to remember coming here for brief visits during the dying days of the Marcos aregime and believe me, the situation then was more dangerous and lots more tense that the situation now.
The postponement of local elections doens't both me much as I don't believe it will precipitate any violence or social unrest.
GE.I would concur with GE comments. If you speak to people a lot more and get their view Amavida they have different priorities (eg bar raids starting again is way worse than killing druggies). Same for duality of life as I can't see how you are threatened. If you are leave as it is easy to catch a plane and relocate until you feel safe rather then post links about how bad it is every day.
You did not do this while PNoy et al were in charge so why do it now unless you are aligned with the rich elite / LP etc and have a political agenda or something else.
Barangay elections my friends in Ceb welcome it seems worried about narco politicians being reelected etc so to the common man they don't mind. For you for some reason it worries you. Go walk around Karachi at night if you want feel a little queasy Amavida. Try Korangi as it very tasty LOL Then you may stop posting all your negativity here and realize it is very nice in the Philippoines and not a bad place as you try to make out (when compared with other places).
GoodEnough
10-08-16, 04:51
Just to add a little fuel to the fires of disagreement, this week's "Economist," a reasonably conservative magazine published in the UK, featured Duterte in it's political cartoon this week: The Economist.
KAL's cartoon.
http://www.economist.com/news/world-week/21708284-kals-cartoon?frsc=dg%7Ca
Other than an occasional article buried in the Asian section of the magazine, the county prior to Duterte's election, was rarely mentioned at all. Now, at least from the standpoint of news coverage, the country has achieved international prominence in a matter of a few months.
GE.
Calm heads prevail in US. Tactically US has called Duterte's bluff. Despite his blowhard rhetoric about ending US military ties & buying (snort) equipment from China / Russia exactly nothing has been done.
"(Philippines Defence Secretary) Lorenzana said there had been no official directive to scrap a two-year-old Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement. ".
So, for the moment, the US turns a blind eye to the ongoing killing happening here.
"Duterte's rhetoric is at odds with the very close relationship between the two countries, Kirby said."
"We continue to focus on our broad relationship with the Philippines and we'll work together in the many areas of mutual interest, US State Dept Secretary John Kirby said.".
http://www.philstar.com/headlines/2016/10/08/1631489/us-provide-180-m-aid-philippines-next-year
No one knows how this bloody chapter in Philippines history will end.
Notwithstanding the comments in general support of Du30 by GE and WR, I have detected a major change in the attitude of at least 2 of my condo's fellow owners, one of whom is a former senator and well-connected.
They are both now very anxious about the President and are seriously wondering about his level of sanity.
Some of Du30's recent comments are nothing short of bizarre, and when he laces them with unnecessary profanitiies then he just seems to be a complete maverick.
WR keeps saying how those people he talks to in Cebu support Du30, but unfortunately these people base their support on the single parochial issue of getting rid of drugs, and they do not care about nor understand the incredible damage his comments are doing to the international reputation.
In fact, during my recent trip to Sydney, Australia, I avoided mentioning that I lived in the Philippines because I was embarrassed. Two filipino waiters in my hotel in Sydney were distressed and embarrassed by the unwanted bad attention being directed to the Philippines in the Australian press. My family were wondering about my sanity in staying here.
I can confirm that thinking people at least around my condo and in Ortigas, are changing their mind in droves and most of my friends are now starting to despair about where we are heading.
I think AV's fairly consistent negative line ever since Du30's election is going to be proven correct in the long run. I cannot see how Du30 can succesfully continue along his current track without something pretty dramatic happening soon.
FreebieFan
10-08-16, 07:57
Notwithstanding the comments in general support of Du30 by GE and WR, I have detected a major change in the attitude of at least 2 of my condo's fellow owners, one of whom is a former senator and well-connected.
They are both now very anxious about the President and are seriously wondering about his level of sanity.
Some of Du30's recent comments are nothing short of bizarre, and when he laces them with unnecessary profanitiies then he just seems to be a complete maverick.
I can confirm that thinking people at least around my condo and in Ortigas, are changing their mind in droves and most of my friends are now starting to despair about where we are heading.
I think AV's fairly consistent negative line ever since Du30's election is going to be proven correct in the long run. I cannot see how Du30 can succesfully continue along his current track without something pretty dramatic happening soon.I think we now how it starts. The church starts to mobilise a crusade against his profanity. He reacts.
Maybe a few ex military guys question why hes so against cooperating especially with US forces. . he reacts.
A few disillusioned ex politicians also start a word war. He reacts.
Somewhere along the way, one or two of his cabinet members resign stating personal reasons and a desire to be with their families. He reacts and calls them ungrateful.
His ratings decline as people realise he only talks and that nothing has changed. He reacts an calls them ungrateful etc.
People start comparing his unsavory words with that of the Vice President. He reacts and says the VP is destabilising the country.
Eventually all the disillusioned start to get together, join forces, the oligarchs join, El Shaddai tells its members to protest and off everyone troops to EDSA again.
Takes time but when all aspects of civil society come together, there's generally no stopping such an unstoppable force.
Wicked Roger
10-08-16, 08:55
Notwithstanding the comments in general support of Du30 by GE and WR, I have detected a major change in the attitude of at least 2 of my condo's fellow owners, one of whom is a former senator and well-connected.
WR keeps saying how those people he talks to in Cebu support Du30, but unfortunately these people base their support on the single parochial issue of getting rid of drugs, and they do not care about nor understand the incredible damage his comments are doing to the international reputation..While I don't agree entirely with D30 RK I do understand peoples frustration with the drugs issue and how it is ruining lives plus the corruption it bring. The ex senators you know would be more aware of this than me. I agree that many I speak with don't really worry about other issues. Is short termism IMHO. They focus on what matters to them now and the rest can wait as it may not really impact their lives in their view. Hence they focus on what his does on drugs and support it generally.
The traditional allies are still giving aid as seen in the link so politics is different (we all know that) and trade / keeping a close watch on Chian and Russia is way more important than some believe IMHO.
http://www.philstar.com/headlines/2016/10/08/1631480/eu-un-wont-stop-philippines-aid
Now where I disagree with D30 is that he cannot / has not articulated his vision as to how to get the country out of the mess it is in (no small task). The need to attract foreign cash to build infrastructure is critical and so far no mention in hit this will be achieved or how to alleviate the poverty.
The rich elite etc plus maybe the Church as FF says are likely trying to find ways to put Leni in charge but I can't see that happening at all or least not for a few years as he rides a wave of popularity at present.
I know some mining executives who are pretty pissed off at the moment (vis a vis the audits) but at the same time some realize they have to play the game so to speak and are pro D30 for his drugs efforts.
Is a mixed bag and the jury is still out for me.
Remember PNoy failed to do anything substantial in his 6 years (apart from make the rich richer IMHO) - high growth rates are only sustainable when passed down the food chain said the IMF and it was proven correct IMHO. But we never had this amount of discussion on the board over that period. Now someone is trying to clean up a drugs menace and people worry. I do but not about the drugs more as to how he can achieve his promises to cleanse corruption, help the poor and create new jobs when the country desperately needs investment and leadership in those areas.
Hopefully the next 12 months things become clearer but Amavida constantly being negative is not IMHO what some see. Through a sensitive western outlook maybe but if people are worried don't come tho the country and / or leave and go somewhere else, but don't keep griping when you live there. Get a balance before you go nutzo LOL.
GoodEnough
10-08-16, 11:21
Notwithstanding the comments in general support of Du30 by GE and WR, I have detected a major change in the attitude of at least 2 of my condo's fellow owners, one of whom is a former senator and well-connected.
They are both now very anxious about the President and are seriously wondering about his level of sanity.
Some of Du30's recent comments are nothing short of bizarre, and when he laces them with unnecessary profanitiies then he just seems to be a complete maverick.
WR keeps saying how those people he talks to in Cebu support Du30, but unfortunately these people base their support on the single parochial issue of getting rid of drugs, and they do not care about nor understand the incredible damage his comments are doing to the international reputation.
In fact, during my recent trip to Sydney, Australia, I avoided mentioning that I lived in the Philippines because I was embarrassed. Two filipino waiters in my hotel in Sydney were distressed and embarrassed by the unwanted bad attention being directed to the Philippines in the Australian press. My family were wondering about my sanity in staying here.
I can confirm that thinking people at least around my condo and in Ortigas, are changing their mind in droves and most of my friends are now starting to despair about where we are heading.
I think AV's fairly consistent negative line ever since Du30's election is going to be proven correct in the long run. I cannot see how Du30 can succesfully continue along his current track without something pretty dramatic happening soon.RK, I don't know if you have read my last few posts, but like your condo friends, I'm started to get ever more skeptical and somewhat concerned. The most articulate dissent I've read is an article appearing recently in "Esquire," that was forwarded to me today. I encourage everyone interested in this topic to read it: http://www.esquiremag.ph/politics/duterte-100-days-dutertopia-a1515-20161007-lfrm3.
The author's comments on the vitriol with which any dissent or even questioning is treated reminds me to a frightening extent of Trump supporters who are usually short on facts but never uncertain.
Again, in addition to the denigration of the US, the EU and the UN, and to the almost wanton killings, it's also worrying that no new initiatives have been announced that would actually address the problems in multiple sectors here. Unless I've missed key public announcements, there don't seem to be any overall plans to confront the lack of foreign investment, the transport and IT infrastruction problems, and the rest of a very long list. I am also at a loss to reconcile the contradiction intrinsic to the increase of executive power and the repeated commitment to devolution of power through the adaptation of a Federal model of government as the two seem mutually contradictory.
GE.
Another news organisation published today a scathing critique of Duterte's presidency.
http://www.sunstar.com.ph/cebu/business/2016/10/07/batuhan-presidents-new-clothes-502300
GE, Thank you for the eloquent Esquire article.
FF, If the worst that happens is we end up back at People Power again I will breathe a sigh of relief. In my opinion Philippines runs the risk of becoming another Romania or North Korea with an incompetent iron fisted despot ruling the country into economic ruin. Mitigating factors: despite the adulation amongst his supporters (shout out to WR), Duterte was not elected with a huge mandate, a lot of people did not vote for him. His power currently depends on the support of the Oligarchy. Also, it appears that despite a demeanour predisposed to viscious authoritarianism, Duterte arrived in office with no detailed plan for such notwithstanding his sudden drastic changes to the executive. In the corridors of power the race is on for Duterte to strengthen his grip on power through his military or face an ignominious end. I think it's inevitable he will try.
I noticed GE mentioned last week that he had heard whispers the top military generals were not_at_all_pleased with the prospect of ending US military aid, indeed the press had been carrying rumours of coup plots since at least August. Duterte fails to issue a presidential directive ending EDCA, the generals issue a press statement of loyalty and in very short order the US state dept affirms existing arms aid will continue. These things are not unconnected. For now the public are reassured but in the long run avoiding this confrontation may signal a complicit military.
I agree with the many posters who point out the inaction on vital economic reforms. Capital outflows along with a tanking Philippine Peso & stock exchange continue.
Am I panicking? No. Am I very concerned? Absolutely yes.
Taken together, we could look on these announcements as US, EU & UN giving Duterte breathing space, or manoeuvring room to change course and start implementing some of those promised economic reforms.
https://209.188.21.24/articles/2016-10-08/news/eu-un-wont-stop-phl-aid/170375?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_term=newsletter&utm_content=newsletter&utm_campaign=newsletter
Hot on the heels of the aid announcements from the EU Locsin is on Twitter grovelling.
Sincere? Not a chance. Significant? Let us hope so. Let's see how long it lasts.
http://technology.inquirer.net/53464/after-expletive-laced-twitter-rants-locsin-apologizes-to-jews-god
Wicked Roger
10-08-16, 16:33
Another news organisation published today a scathing critique of Duterte's presidency.
FF, If the worst that happens is we end up back at People Power again I will breathe a sigh of relief. I
Mitigating factors: despite the adulation amongst his supporters (shout out to WR), Duterte was not elected with a huge mandate, a lot of people did not vote for him. His power currently depends on the support of the Oligarchy.
I noticed GE mentioned last week that he had heard whispers the top military generals were not_at_all_pleased with the prospect of ending US military aid, indeed the press had been carrying rumours of coup plots since at least August. Duterte fails to issue a presidential directive ending EDCA, the generals issue a press statement of loyalty and in very short order the US state dept affirms existing arms aid will continue. These things are not unconnected. For now the public are reassured but in the long run avoiding this confrontation may signal a complicit military.
Am I panicking? No. Am I very concerned? Absolutely yes.Amavida,
You are panicking if you think a return to people power and the rich elite is the way forward IMHO which lead to more drugs etc is that what you really want? If people power brings a more brutal leader then what? Be careful what you wish for Amavida.
The coup rumors started even before he was president with Trillanes stating this LOL so for me that is old news and where I read it is in the press generally seen to be pro LP / rich and not pro D30 - so that is fish and chip news. Even the Daily Tribune that was pro Binay during the election has an editorial on this also that rehased news from other papers.
The Esquire was an interesting read and this link is from the National in the UAE. Read what the people say.
The last paras make interesting reading to someone like you who clearly only mixes with the elite and rich. Also some of the economic bit I am snot sure about but quotes Bloomberg = maybe fast growing but where are the benefits.
The lady says.
"This is what we asked for, so I don't understand those who complain," said Emerson Sy-Chen, a 25-year-old nurse in the southern city of Davao, where Duterte was mayor for 22 years – the city he made safer through the crime-fighting Davao Death Squad. "We need a complete do-over. He's the only one who can move us forward, so just shut up and let him do his job."
http://www.thenational.ae/arts-life/the-review/dutertes-first-100-days-is-the-philippine-president-a-scourge-or-a-saviour
Just had dinner with an mate who employs 25 pinoys (ODWs) and all his staff are happy and what they tell him reflects the quote in the news article. They don't really worry (yet) about the international standing. More concerns are the spread of the Zika virus, the rise in dengue (eg Cebu increased 140% this year to end Sept) -both would strain a poor health system. And the next bowl of rice (that they can buy without being mugged so it seems).
His mandate as big enough. When did a leader win the majority etc. Look at UK for example, look at your country Aussie. The US has a different system (one I really can't get my head around).
So while he does not gets more than 50% he got 16 million. Way more than PNoy and did we see you complain for the last 6 years about that and the rampant corruption, the deaths and random shootings on the streets, the drug menace, the death of foreigners that never are resolved? No we did not and why?
Be consistent, if you complain about the Philippines leader being in power with less than 50% of the popular vote do it for all the others not the one you are scared of as clearly you are panicking about something or you would be FRing so much negativity.
Now the issues GE and RK note I also worry about as something has to be done and initiatives announced to help the international community understand D30 and his way of doing business. Posturing lasts so long and as he said he would try and make things safer he is sticking to part of his mandate. Many of us worry when the other bits of his mandate will start but we are not the voters, we have no way to influence matters, should not be to concerned for our safety (walking in NYC, Karachi, Lahore, Mexico City and anywhere in Northen Mexico ruled by the drug families is more dangerous IMHO). And very importantly we cannot interfere.
The people have spoken whether we like it or not (clearly many still do) so lets see where it goes. Hopefully investment and sense regarding aid will happen and maybe it is all a posturing game that politician play to get more cash? Who knows? Would not surprise me if the US did more joint patrols / games next year.
Wicked Roger
10-08-16, 16:37
Hot on the heels of the aid announcements from the EU Locsin is on Twitter grovelling.
Sincere? Not a chance. Significant? Let us hope so. Let's see how long it lasts.
http://technology.inquirer.net/53464/after-expletive-laced-twitter-rants-locsin-apologizes-to-jews-godTeddyboy is just a spoilt rich kid / ex senator with a poorly conceived TV segment IMHO. Why he was chosen as an Ambassador is beyond my ken. There musty have better candidates (me? GE, RK LOL) but surely someone else would have more gravitas and humility etc.
He is grovelling because many found what he said offensive as I did and I don't see it linked to aid as he was grovelling before and has deleted many of those tweets.
David Cameroon once said "too many twits make a twat" LOL and Teddyboy is certainly a good example of that IMHO.
CallSign Papa
10-08-16, 20:07
I encourage everyone interested in this topic to read it: http://www.esquiremag.ph/politics/duterte-100-days-dutertopia-a1515-20161007-lfrm3.It's a well written article GE, and brings up some points I hadn't previously considered. One thing that is noticeable is the difference in how Duterte supporters react when questioned (on social media), on my timeline there seems to be no ability to even attempt reasoned discussion, it all all very quickly descends into hysterical name-calling.
It's all to reminiscent of the supporters of our other famous demagogue.
Soapy Smith
10-08-16, 23:37
Also the asian countries are infinitely more homogeneous than the US and all of Europe. You are looking at a historical snapshot in the world history citing Confucianism. Korea has only been a modern world integrated capitalist economy for a couple of generations. Japan slightly longer has stagnated for years.
In 30 to 50 years lets see if Confucianism holds up as societies get fat and happy and globalism and world capital and the forces of cheap labor worldwide continue to depress labor markets. Well not me I will be dead by then.
The old 'Protestant work ethic' of just a couple of generations ago which served us for for generations would have held its own just fine versus Confucian Dynamism. Its normalization of greed and re writing of tax and laws that have encouraged the cooking of the golden goose for short term personal gain here in the US.
The Phils is a hopeless basketcase whose entire social and economic retardation can be traced directly to its adherence to medeival Catholicism and unlimited family size due to utter lack of birth control. No asian Tiger got its shit together until it first got control of its birth rate.
Lest anyone think there is any biased religious component to my argument I am an agnostic. Back in the day the catholics, jew ethics were mostly all the same as the old protestant work ethic, its just an old phrase. They are all just isms to me.Hofstede's initial data were gathered in the 1960's, and time orientation data were gathered in the late 1970's and early 1980's, so I am not sure this is such a new phenomenon in Asia. You may be right that Confucianism is being slowly eroded, but I think much of the dynamic they described is being sustained by other very conservative aspects of Confucian culture. In my recent visits to Korea I was really struck by the deference to seniority, hierarchy, and traditions. To keep it short, I will simply say that deference to seniors and traditions means that change comes very slowly.
You may be right about short-term orientation in the U.S. being a more recent phenomenon, but I think the Protestant Ethic is about more than just a sober work ethic. From John Calvin, for example, Protestantism made it okay for those Dutch tulip investors to pile up bunches of money, since it now represented God's blessing for some folks to make out better than others. So that aspect of the protestant ethic justifies capitalism and the amassing of wealth. Perhaps what you call the "normalization of greed" is not entirely contradictory to the protestant ethic. These are not my original thoughts; they're from a dead German white guy named Max Weber.
I agree that there has been much tax shelter legislation over the last several decades that favors a few while harming the economy more generally. Regarding moving production to cheap labor countries, which obviously does happen, at least as relates to the U.S., automation has probably done more to eliminate jobs than has offshoring production.
Now, let me justify leaving this in the Philippines politics thread. I too am an agnostic, and I agree that the Catholic Church and its teachings on birth control have been devastating for the Philippines. Actually, there are other long term problems that could be laid at the doorstep of the Church. But I think the underlying problems go much further than the Church. In particular, land ownership and the emergent land ownership practices created during Spanish colonialism, and perpetuated now in family dynastic elites in the provinces and in economic circles in the metro areas, are at least as important for inhibiting both the economy and democracy in the Philippines.
Thanks for caring enough to offer these thoughts.
Soapy Smith
10-08-16, 23:46
It's all to reminiscent of the supporters of our other famous demagogue.At least Duterte hasn't been caught claiming to grope pussies, even if he had wanted to have the first go with the raped Australian woman.
Soapy Smith
10-09-16, 00:08
RK, I don't know if you have read my last few posts, but like your condo friends, I'm started to get ever more skeptical and somewhat concerned. The most articulate dissent I've read is an article appearing recently in "Esquire," that was forwarded to me today. I encourage everyone interested in this topic to read it: http://www.esquiremag.ph/politics/duterte-100-days-dutertopia-a1515-20161007-lfrm3.
GE.Where did this term come from, extrajudicial killing (EJK)? These sorts of sanitizing terms, like referring to ra-- as "sexual violence" (hell, even ISG codewords the other term out of existence), essentially anesthetize the underlying behaviors. Likewise, calling squatters, "informal settlers." (I know, liberals like me insist that "squatter" seems to put all the blame on the poor people themselves, who are the real victims of policies that keep them landless and reinforce control by the elites. But "informal settler" makes their activities sound romantic, and casts them as noble savages. Truth is, most of these people called themselves squatters until do-gooders gave them a new name. Unfortunately, calling them informal settlers also deflects attention from the underlying reason why they are squatting in the first place--because they can't afford land, and so gravitate to unoccupied places that everybody understands are dangerous or toxic.)
So maybe extrajudicial killing, sexual violence, and informal settlers make these phenomena easier to talk about in everyday conversation. But they also deflect attention from the harsh underlying realities. For that matter, there is no such thing as a judicial killing in a country like the Philippines that does not have a death penalty. So the term extrajudicial killing does not even make logical sense.
So, my replacement term for extrajudicial killing is state-sponsored murder. Let's call it what it really is.
Soapy Smith
10-09-16, 01:08
People start comparing his unsavory words with that of the Vice President. He reacts and says the VP is destabilising the country.
Eventually all the disillusioned start to get together, join forces, the oligarchs join, El Shaddai tells its members to protest and off everyone troops to EDSA again.
Takes time but when all aspects of civil society come together, there's generally no stopping such an unstoppable force.What you describe implies a non-violent overthrow such as happened in EDSA I and EDSA II. I hope you're right. But the unfolding steps you suggest are more like EDSA II. To this day Estrada refers to it as "the coup against me. " EDSA I was almost fantastic in the way it came together, in part from Ramos' (Head of the national police) stiff backbone, opportunistic participation in the revolt by insiders like Enrile and Honason, the chance occurrence of all the masses that assembled on EDSA when Cardinal Sin appealed to them, that Marcos was quite sick at the time, and that American emissaries put a lot of pressure on Marcos to leave. Duterte may be removed from power if something like EDSA II unfolds, but EDSA I is too much to expect. And an EDSA II scenario may be doubtful in that Duterte comes across as a much stronger personality than Estrada, who ultimately caved-in at the end. Estrada was an actor; Duterte had presumably been running death squads in Davao for more than 20 years.
I am an agnostic, so I say this only metaphorically: Filipinos need to remember Leni Robredo in their prayers every night. She served only briefly in Congress before running for national office, presumably shares a lot of the values and commitment to good government that her late husband personified, and like Cory Aquino, was pushed into government reluctantly under pressure from her friends and daughters after her husband's death. Unlike Cory, whose Tarlac-area family are among the powerful provincial land-owning elites, Leni Robredo worked many years as a lawyer defending the rights of poor farmers. Also, some observers say she won the VP election in part due to residual hatred toward Bong Marcos' family, but also because of an especially strong performance in the VP debate.
I admire Leni Robredo, but her role is going to require much more than admiration from a handful of foreigners.
FreebieFan
10-09-16, 01:38
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/oct/08/rodrigo-duterte-first-100-days-philippines-president
Article aims to balance the good with bad. Certainly the first 100 days have had a polarising effect. People are with or against, not a lot of middle ground.
If I were advising Duterte on his international media relations I would implore him to speak more specifically occasionally on what he means about his war on 'drugs'. Most of the west has a mixed feeling about 'drug wars' and it encompasses a range of mind and mood altering substances legal and illegal depending on which country you live in. The term Shabu is recognized by all Pinoy but its an alien phrase to the rest of the world. For all many people know he is snuffing out potheads.
If he occasionally while spewing his bile towards various western leaders would more specifically use the term crystal meth and methamphetamines in his proclamations, the populations of the west, if not thier leaders would be much more sympathetic. Crystal meth is one of the most vile substances ever concocted and has no sane constituancy anywhere on earth. Here in the west to my knowledge- anyone can feel free to correct me if I'm wrong- its mostly a home brewed drug cooked up by meth addicts, introduced to thier friends and acquaintances and susceptible troubled neighbors, who then learn to cook it up themselves and fry thier brains and souls. The ingrediants are pretty mundane and readily available to western people who wish to acquire them without relying on specific sources from specific climates like poppy and the coca plant which don't grow anywhere easily.
Its becoming apparent that in the phils its a much more mechanized production system with its financing and and production and distribution as a for profit business enterprise apparently run by members of local and national government, the military and respected business figures or drug personalities the euphemism goes.
When I was in Phils last month they busted a huge meth lab disguised as a 'piggery' in Pampanga. It was a huge operation. Not some concrete pen and a few animals as the province girls might implore us to finance. The world needs to know this.
Duterte speaks mostly in a mix of visayan (I am told) and English (which is obvious) as his Tagalog is weak and sounds ignorant to the mostly Tagalog ears which run the country, so that's why he does it. Has there ever been an elected president there who uses so little Tagalog? I doubt it. He would be the perfect spokesman to articulate these facts to the western world if he wasn't so busy taking such a small minded defensive position.
When he went to the Asean meeting last August the other leaders in the region had zero objection to his 'war' and probably welcomed it. The true Asian countries value law and order and conformity to a huge degree alien to the west. The Phils is often wrongly categorized as belonging to some regional Asian culture which it barely shares rather the the more external features of black hair and epicanthic folds of thier eyelids of many of the people.
Do any of you who live there and are focused plugged in to local residents and news have information that the 'drug war' is wider and encompasses weed or other lesser drugs? Hell everything is lesser than Meth. I am not condoning the vigilante killing and don't trust any Phils policeman to be judge, jury and executioner but its an inevitable reaction to a peculiar and pernicious Meth culture of the Phils not found elsewhere to such a degree to my understanding.
Right before I arrived this August the Fist gave a detailed speech calling out 150 or so notable drug suspects by name. All were told to surrender. How many did? When I was there a couple of vice mayors who were brought in that's about it. Killing street pushers of the well connected's mechanized cooked up Meth will be hardly a dent. Thats a culture whos wealthy treats its poor as so subhuman and to be expoilted so wantonly. If he manages to break that Meth economy it will be a public service. This is a real end justifies the means conundrum which has no easy logical black and white conclusion for a foriegner.
Correct me if I am wrong.
GoodEnough
10-09-16, 06:07
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/oct/08/rodrigo-duterte-first-100-days-philippines-president
Article aims to balance the good with bad. Certainly the first 100 days have had a polarising effect. People are with or against, not a lot of middle ground.Thanks FF. The article at least strives for some sort of "on the one hand. On the other hand" balance. What's missing however, as implied in Pantot's post, is any analysis of the nuances of Philippines culture. And that's the problem I have with all of the print reporting I've seen, be it national or international. There's been little or no attempt to contextualise either the war on drugs or Duterte's inflammatory remarks, and articles condemning the violation of human rights cast arguments strictly in terms of black and white. The simple fact is that this country lacks a functional system of justice, and the institutions normally associated with viable justice systems; human rights have been violated here with impunity for decades and somehow escaped the world's attention.
To respond directly to Pantot, this is mainly a war against Shabu (crystal meth), but there have been two recently reported large busts for cocaine at NAIA, of drug mules trying to transship the drugs to other countries. This doesn't seem to be a war against marijuana and surely not on drugs such as heroin, which don't seem to be a large problem here as they are in the US and Europe. There's also little doubt that much of the violent, street-level crime here is committed by shabu users.
I believe it's possible that, prior to Duterte--given the putative involvement of politicians, police and local datus--the country was on the verge of becoming at least a quasi narco-state. What remains to be seen is whether those previously considered as untouchable will, in fact, be identified and prosecuted. Poor people, who are it appears, the major users of meth, are easy targets and account (if one believes the news reports) for a large measure of the addiction-related violent crimes. The king pins however, with tentacles deep in the political structure, are more elusive, and more difficult to eradicate. The jury is still out on if and whether the true beneficiaries of drug manufacturing and distribution are caught and punished. I sincerely hope so, but that hasn't happened yet.
So-called "street justice" as has been pointed out by several prior posters, is nothing new to the Philippines. Mindanao has suffered mini-wars among feuding clans for years (these are called rido.) Journalists expressing views considered disparaging or threatening to one or another vested interest have been targeted and killed for years preceding this presidency and the violence associated with kidnap for ransom has been around for decades as well. So for me, the bottom line is that street-level killings and related violence didn't originate with Duterte but have been an intrinsic aspect of this culture for quite a long time. The difference in this case is that the violence is allegedly directed at drug users and distributors and that so many deaths have occurred so quickly.
Recently, claims have been made by the national government that street crime, both in Manila and Cebu has fallen dramatically, and this point has been re-affirmed by some anecdotal evidence. Obviously the statements on this subject are self-serving, but I think it's likely that such types of crime have decreased.
During his election campaign, Duterte contended that the people of the Philippines had lost control of their own streets and that the time had come to take back control. I can appreciate that in some parts of major cities this is, in fact, true.
I'm just another foreigner who lives here, and no an apologist for Duterte or for those opposing him. However, because I live in Davao, where the level of street violence and the perceived threat of violent crime on the streets or in jeepneys is far less than I've witnessed in Manila and Cebu, I can understand the positive impact he's had on this city.
GE.
To those echoing the government line that the streets are safer I ask you, in what twisted Orwellian double speak world is the murder of 3600 people, and climbing, (including innocents caught in the cross fire) safer?
GE, respectfully and without prejudice, in what alternative universe is your city of decades of death squads and recent bombing of night markets killing 15 people comparatively safer than other Filipino cities? The president declared a 'State of Lawlessness' and things are safer? Hello?
Could somebody explain that to me because I'd really like to know?
Pantot, in answer to your question regarding whether the so called 'war on drugs' is specifically targeted to meth, no sir it is not targeted. Anybody can kill anybody on the mere allegation of drug use / possession / dealing. High profile media personalities are being incarcerated for having a little weed on them.
Wicked Roger
10-09-16, 15:16
To those echoing the government line that the streets are safer I ask you, in what twisted Orwellian double speak world is the murder of 3600 people, and climbing, (including innocents caught in the cross fire) safer?
GE, respectfully and without prejudice, in what alternative universe is your city of decades of death squads and recent bombing of night markets killing 15 people comparatively safer than other Filipino cities? The president declared a 'State of Lawlessness' and things are safer? Hello?
Could somebody explain that to me because I'd really like to know?
Pantot, in answer to your question regarding whether the so called 'war on drugs' is specifically targeted to meth, no sir it is not targeted. Anybody can kill anybody on the mere allegation of drug use / possession / dealing. High profile media personalities are being incarcerated for having a little weed on them.Amavida,
You never contextualize matters nor after so called 10 years of being in the country seem to understand the culture and realise this does not relate to western culture or your sensitive wimpy am scared ideologue. If you read the link I posted you see what many OFWs say – they like, citizen feel safe.
What would you prefer? Lawlessness where you could be mugged and killed for a mobile because of drug addicts or some feeling of safety. You should live in Mexico City or Pakistan and then you would bleat like a baby at what happens there but I reported no one care. I was in Karachi and was told not to walk outside the hotel at night. 20-30 years I was very safe now I am not. I still walk around the Philippines it is safe and I am happy less druggies are on the streets – they is still the risk of violence but I feel safe (I did not in parts of Karachi).
A drugs war is a war on Shabu as GE said which if you see people who are addicts as I have is destructive and causes pain and anguish plus results in theft and senseless acts of violence to get the next fix.
So why are you so concerned I ask again and again. Either you are so sensitive you should leave or you have connections etc to people who are scared and fear being caught up or you and family or friends had it so good for so long now you see that threatened by someone who has a mandate and told people what he would do.
And as GE said killings have been going on for years before D30? Did you ever squeal when they happened under PNoy? - no. Did you squeal when foreigners were / are randomly murdered in AC and elsewhere by possible drug addicts before D30 care to power? - no. You never said a thing but now every day you are negative so you are hiding something as you never complained under PNoy ever to my knowledge and some stats show less are killed now then in the same period under PNoy. Thought the source I am unsure of. Did you post about that? - No.
Wicked Roger
10-09-16, 15:31
The article at least strives for some sort of "on the one hand. On the other hand" balance. What's missing however, as implied in Pantot's post, is any analysis of the nuances of Philippines culture. And that's the problem I have with all of the print reporting I've seen, be it national or international. There's been little or no attempt to contextualise either the war on drugs or Duterte's inflammatory remarks, and articles condemning the violation of human rights cast arguments strictly in terms of black and white. The simple fact is that this country lacks a functional system of justice, and the institutions normally associated with viable justice systems; human rights have been violated here with impunity for decades and somehow escaped the world's attention. GE.Good comment and observation and something I have noted. It misses the 'street view' IMHO. The newspapers are edited by the rich elite or LP supporters so there is some bias (similar to Fox New coverage of the US elections – always good for a laugh LOL).
There is no functioning justice system. Many in jail never leave as can't afford bail. Some stay longer than there sentence mandates, Many complain it is corrupt. HR as GE have been screwed for decades and only now people complain why? Maybe as D30 is likely to spoil their cost life / scams – who knows but strange the CHR rarely protested as heavily when the 54+ journos were murdered in Mindanao and the then DOJ leader De Lima could not in 6 years bring the culprits to trail (and one was allowed bail for PHP 11 million – that was paid the same day!
I never saw or read Amavida or others complain then – just an observation.
So-called "street justice" as has been pointed out by several prior posters, is nothing new to the Philippines. The difference in this case is that the violence is allegedly directed at drug users and distributors and that so many deaths have occurred so quickly.
Recently, claims have been made by the national government that street crime, both in Manila and Cebu has fallen dramatically, and this point has been re-affirmed by some anecdotal evidence. Obviously the statements on this subject are self-serving, but I think it's likely that such types of crime have decreased.
GE.IMHO Davao is safer than Manila of Cebu due to tough adherence to the rule of law which may upset a few people but as I won't break the law what have I to worry about. Amavida? What are you worried about? Every day in Cebu over the years there has been drug deaths, random acts of violence, jeepney hold ups (cuties I know have been violently attacked for their mobiles, cash (small)). So what is new? As GE says and I tend to agree, because the violence is directed at drug user many of whom are scared witless and are now trying to give themselves up but the problem as the papers say is no room at the inn (jails too crowded).
So if you don't get involved in drugs and don't hang around those who do or live in areas where there is massive addiction (IE the poorer parts of town) then what is there is there to be concerned about (Amavida care to reply?
On CNN last Cateyano was speaking to Amanpour (yes he is a D30 supporter) but he used facts and the "people want this" as his argument to her questions – she was not impressive when she is faced with someone who calls her "Ma'am" and smile plus keeps using facts to say the previous administration had a far worse record and no one complained. And was speaking about how drugs are a pandemic.
Now I for one don't want that anywhere least of the Philippines– don't you Amavida or you prefer the status quo and an increase on drugs? Answers on a post card please LOL.
To those echoing the government line that the streets are safer I ask you, in what twisted Orwellian double speak world is the murder of 3600 people, and climbing, (including innocents caught in the cross fire) safer?
GE, respectfully and without prejudice, in what alternative universe is your city of decades of death squads and recent bombing of night markets killing 15 people comparatively safer than other Filipino cities? The president declared a 'State of Lawlessness' and things are safer? Hello?
Could somebody explain that to me because I'd really like to know?We who travel to the Phils and stay wherever we please and are 'rich', even me at a sub P1000 per night hotel, where I usually stay, cannot begin to know the lives of those who live in these slums where the shabu is pushed and consumed. Its easy for us to judge. Affluent western culture values the individual and would protect the rights of 2% of suspected criminals in the name of universal rights, while those in poor barangays in a poor country as the Phils will gladly hand over the 5% of the people preying on their youth to summary execution.
Pantot, in answer to your question regarding whether the so called 'war on drugs' is specifically targeted to meth, no sir it is not targeted. Anybody can kill anybody on the mere allegation of drug use / possession / dealing. High profile media personalities are being incarcerated for having a little weed on them.I would then take your answer actually as a 'yes' as the focus is Meth. High profile media personalities are being arrested for pot not gunned down in the street, which is the concern of the EU, Obama, the UN and most of us here in ISG. I am sure its a fig leaf and they are out on the street soon enough if they have lawyers and money. Is it a fool proof system of street justice? No but the overwhelming support of the people so far is a pretty good indicator that it is a net plus overall.
GoodEnough
10-10-16, 01:22
GE, respectfully and without prejudice, in what alternative universe is your city of decades of death squads and recent bombing of night markets killing 15 people comparatively safer than other Filipino cities? The president declared a 'State of Lawlessness' and things are safer? Hello?
AV, I stand by what I said: people here are not afraid of being robbed and / or brutalized when riding public conveyances, nor are they afraid of being robbed or mugged when walking down the street. In my 14 years of living here I've never met anyone--foreigner or local, poor or rich--who has been threatened by a "death squad," shaken down by local police, or expressed any fear of being alone on the street. If you've never been here, I suggest you come for some firsthand experience and I'd be delighted to serve as your tour guide. The simple fact is that the whole ambience in Davao is far different from that of Manila or Cebu or Angeles. Again, perhaps only those who have spent time here will understand exactly what I mean. I've had Filipino friends coming here from Manila who have noticed the same thing. The bottom line is that people (at least the people I know and meet) feel safe here.
As to the "targeting" of shabu, I simply meant that meth is the drug of choice here so naturally it offers the biggest and most obvious target for the war against drugs. Virtually all of the stories disseminated in the media related to drug lords, drug manufacturers and street killings have focused on meth and not any other drugs. This may be because other illegal drugs--heroin, cocaine and even pot--are less prevelent here than is crystal meth. There's little doubt that those who enrich themselves from drug trafficking have developed solid connections to politicians, police and other parts of the power structure here and I believe that Duterte is determined to eradicate the relationship between political power and drugs. If you grant the correctness of the assumption that the influence of shabu has become pernicious and that there's a danger of the country becoming in some measure a narco-state, then the question becomes what's the best means of combatting the threat given limited institutional resources? It's easy to condemn the killings and the violence but I've yet to hear anyone suggest a viable alternative.
I return again to a point I've tried to make before. In a country where drugs have become a pandemic, and where there's no institutionalized means of combatting the pandemic, the alternatives to brutality are limited. It's easy (if specious) to criticize the "denial of human rights" from a Western perspective which conveniently ignores the human rights of ordinary citizens to walk the streets without fear of violence, without worrying about [CodeWord123] (http://isgprohibitedwords.info?CodeWord=CodeWord123), and without worrying about any other violation of personal safety. These are basic human rights as well, but the media don't appear to pay much attention to them. Nor, I note, do media and foreign diplomats offer any credible responses to Duterte's (correct) contention that the US, Turkey, the EU and others don't seem to worry about the human rights of women and children killed by their bombng of targets in Syria or elsewhere. His claims of Western hypocrisy are not without foundation.
My predominant concerns AV differ from those you've expressed. You apparently worry about a descent into mayhem, a concern I do not share. I am however concerned--and mystified--by the intentional alienation from the US, the EU and the UN, and the seemingly growing attraction to aligning more with China and Russia, neither of which appear to offer much to this country either politically or in the augmentation of defensive capabilities. I can understand the war on drugs; I fail to understand where the country is heading in terms of its foreign policy. While I understand fully the desire for diminishing the extent of reliance on the US, and for the establishment of a more independent policy, I don't understand the means being used to meet that objective.
GE.
AV, I stand by what I said: people here are not afraid of being robbed and / or brutalized when riding public conveyances, nor are they afraid of being robbed or mugged when walking down the street. In my 14 years of living here I've never met anyone--foreigner or local, poor or rich--who has been threatened by a "death squad," shaken down by local police, or expressed any fear of being alone on the street. If you've never been here, I suggest you come for some firsthand experience and I'd be delighted to serve as your tour guide. The simple fact is that the whole ambience in Davao is far different from that of Manila or Cebu or Angeles. Again, perhaps only those who have spent time here will understand exactly what I mean. I've had Filipino friends coming here from Manila who have noticed the same thing. The bottom line is that people (at least the people I know and meet) feel safe here.There is no doubt that Davao is an infinitely more safe city than Manila but its hard to extrapolate successes in a provincial city such as Davao to the sprawling dysfunctional megalopolis that is Metro Manila. All my times in Davao were as you say a very safe experience and its a very nice city. But I have had the same experiences in Mindanao cities of Cagayan de Oro and Butuan which are admittedly smaller but still urbanized. They have never had the benefits of intensified death squads as Davao. Puerto Princessa and Tacloban as well are much smaller municipalities for sure but relatively are very safe but I never felt unsafe in jeeps or wandering around at night in those places.
It will be very difficult to transfer these successes to Metro Manila. The crushing magnitude of the slums of Manila and its criminality lording over the resident corresponding humanity sprawl over many vast disparate and disconnected areas, maybe 1000 x anything similar in Davao.
I wish him well in his endeavor but its a tough task. I hope its worth the innocents caught in the crossfire.
If Duterte ran today his poll numbers would double IMO and not just because the old lady died, with respect. I am not saying I support him because hes a wacky lose cannon, but the anti meth war is hard to object to.
Wicked Roger
10-10-16, 04:25
There is no doubt that Davao is an infinitely more safe city than Manila but its hard to extrapolate successes in a provincial city such as Davao to the sprawling dysfunctional megalopolis that is Metro Manila. It will be very difficult to transfer these successes to Metro Manila. The crushing magnitude of the slums of Manila and its criminality lording over the resident corresponding humanity sprawl over many vast disparate and disconnected areas, maybe 1000 x anything similar in Davao.
If Duterte ran today his poll numbers would double IMO .I concur Pantot. You make an interesting observation as when Davao was being 'made safe' those in Luzon, the rich elite and Amavida for that matter never said a thing (or rarely excluding the CHR and De Lima who to this day have yet to file any charges). Now it has become nationwide and the fight is against shabu which as GE and I have said is a pandemic in the country, some take umbrage maybe because their scams etc are now threatened, they feel that they will be exposed and jailed which means they can't continue feeding from the trough.
Is why I am still waiting for Amavida to explain his sudden 'sensitivity' and worry as why should he be bothered. He never complained about the deaths in Davao before, never about drive by shooting / tandem motorbike assassins, or about the drug trade. Suddenly he does whcih makes me wonder if really he is a pinoy with an Aussie passport who has something to hide. Under PNoy there was much murder, drugs etc but Amavida did not worry why now? Please explain (but he won't) LOL.
Davao is a nice place and is safe. I think Cebu is but you won't find me wandering the dark alleys at night (I would not do that in London or NYC either). The problem that D30 has exposed is the rampant drug menace and its look to the "higher ups" and PNP / AFP. He wants to try and stamp on this and many people agree with him. He said he would be bloody so why are people surprised?
Would he get more votes now than he got at the election? Hard to say but if you place things in context (as Amavida does not), listen to those on the street (not the rich condo owners), listen to OFWs etc then possibly yes he would as seems his base support him. The rich, the Church do not and have never supported him.
Where the country is going economically and investment wise is another matter. That is a worry until some strategy / policy is announced.
So if you don't get involved in drugs and don't hang around those who do or live in areas where there is massive addiction (ie the poorer parts of town) then what is there is there to be concerned about With all due respect WR I don't think that this is a sensible line to take, because it emphasizes the "as long as I watch myself and I am OK then everything will be OK" line, and that is simply NOT the case any more. You will understand what I mean when you return to Cebu, because you are more "prominent" than many other foreigners (insert winking emoticon here).
Your reference to "the poorer parts of town" is actually much larger than simply the poor parts of Manila, Cebu or Davao. It refers to most of the small barangays attached to any of the major centers across Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao, and the realty is that there is a great deal of "danger" for the law-abiding residents of these barangays because they ALL have a terrible drug problem (shabu) that only becomes apparent when a drug-user goes crazy and kills someone, usually an innocent by-stander. I have personally experienced this tragedy when my wife's brother was killed by a machete-wielding crazy while he was sitting quietly playing cards under a mango tree with 3 of his mates. Such an event can occur anywhere and is not restricted to the poorer parts of town.
Massive addiction is also not necessarily linked to poor areas. Only recently has it become apparent that there is a large deal of drug use within the Manila private school network that has been hidden because the wealthy own the press and such unsavory news can be suppressed.
As a long time resident here I am actually feeling concerned about my own safety now, and that has never been the case for the past 20 years. I have always been aware that filipinos get very jealous of foreigners being successful, and they will try various ways to sabotage your business or career. The general feeling of my filipino friends is that if someone decides they don't like you it is now very easy to label you as a drug-pusher and then let the vigilantes do the rest. I know a Korean guy who was targeted in this way but he survived the "attack" and immediately moved himself and his family back to Sokor just last month.
That's why I always lie low here and try not to p.. anyone off.
This sounds like I am being alarmist but it is how I am currently feeling, and this is a very new development for me. I wonder if any of the other long-standing residents here are feeling the same anxieties as me.
IMHO it adds the need for an extra layer of caution to those who monger on the edge. You don't have to worry about the police so much any more. Be more concerned about the family and / or friends of the girl that you [CodeWord140] (http://isgprohibitedwords.info?CodeWord=CodeWord140) off or short-change.
Take from it what you will.
Philippine gov't slams French paper for calling Duterte "serial killer president".
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2016-10/09/c_135742584.htm
Soapy Smith
10-10-16, 07:40
This sounds like I am being alarmist but it is how I am currently feeling, and this is a very new development for me. I wonder if any of the other long-standing residents here are feeling the same anxieties as me.Yes. My squeeze, 38 years old, but obviously not an expat, lives in a poor community in Malabon with her three teenage children. Saturday (10/8) about noon her time, she texted me to say "very dangerous here in Sto. Nino. Ambush just killed three people. " I later quizzed her about who was involved. Seems the three killed were not from Sto. Nino, but had just walked into the community. They had apparently been followed by several people who set up the ambush, shot them, then quickly disappeared. Something like this would not be hard to pull off considering the narrow, twisty walkways (no streets) in the community, but bullets buzzing around create serious danger because of the community's tight quarters.
WR argues that if you're not doing drugs, you have nothing to worry about. In this case it's likely that the victims had come into the community to visit somebody they knew, but for most of the 130 extended families in the community these were complete strangers. Nor did most residents have any idea about the identities of the men that instigated the ambush nor the reason for the killings. It may have been vigilantes, or plain-clothes police, or just drug gang warfare. Perhaps she's naive, but my squeeze is not aware of any substantial shabu use or dealing in the community. If she's right, then this particular dangerous situation occurred despite the innocence of most folks in the community.
What the locals do know is that there have been several such murders in the community in the last four months, including two people with connections to the local Barangay Captain. Might it be drug warfare? Yes, but since the all-out war on drugs began it's impossible to know who's behind the various killings. One of my squeeze's boys has a bad habit of breaking curfew, and she's scared to death he's going to get caught in the crossfire. I've been in and out of the community numerous times, but always escorted by her or one of the kids. I confess now I am frightened about going in there any time in the foreseeable future. And I am seriously worried about their safety.
My PRC & ROK friends smoke like blast furnaces. They're just gonna love this.
http://www.mb.com.ph/eo-on-nationwide-smoking-ban-out-this-month/#Pbt2 pxJ1 xW5 G1 ob5. 99.
Not terribly high brow but pertinent to our discussions nevertheless.
"Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin and the Thug Theory of Leadership".
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/09/09/donald-trump-vladimir-putin-and-the-thug-theory-of-leadership.html?via=desktop&source=twitter
A stinging rebuke from Fidel Ramos no less. It's not just us foreigners who are concerned.
Short version:
http://news.abs-cbn.com/news/10/10/16/ph-losing-badly-in-dutertes-first-100-days-ramos
http://www.philstar.com/headlines/2016/10/10/1632214/ramos-dutertes-first-100-days-letdown
Longer version:
http://www.mb.com.ph/du30s-first-100-days-team-philippines-losing/
"IN THE OVERALL ASSESSMENT BY THIS WRITER, WE FIND OUR TEAM PHILIPPINES LOSING IN THE FIRST 100 DAYS OF DU30'S ADMINISTRATION AND LOSING BADLY. THIS IS A HUGE DISAPPOINTMENT AND LET-DOWN TO MANY OF US. ".
FreebieFan
10-10-16, 08:25
Take from it what you will.
Philippine gov't slams French paper for calling Duterte "serial killer president".
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2016-10/09/c_135742584.htmGuess the government there will be doing some slamming. " Streets running with blood " not at all accurate but made for a good headline nonetheless.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3828977/Philippine-President-Rodrigo-Duterte-compares-crackdown-drugs-Hitler-s-Holocaust-cuts-ties-US.html
The economic damage will be cumulative.
http://www.philstar.com/headlines/2016/10/10/1632121/us-eu-investors-put-philippine-plans-hold
Guess the government there will be doing some slamming. " Streets running with blood " not at all accurate but made for a good headline nonetheless.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3828977/Philippine-President-Rodrigo-Duterte-compares-crackdown-drugs-Hitler-s-Holocaust-cuts-ties-US.htmlLOL! Daily Mail, say no more FF 😅.
GoodEnough
10-10-16, 09:35
The economic damage will be cumulative.
http://www.philstar.com/headlines/2016/10/10/1632121/us-eu-investors-put-philippine-plans-holdUnsurprising and even predictable given the recent diatribes against basically all of the West. And this is what I was far more afraid of given the overwhelming need of this country for more FDI.
I admit that RK's admonitions also concern me, since I know he's not given to spontaneous outbursts of alarm and comes to his conclusions only after careful thought.
GE.
Unsurprising and even predictable given the recent diatribes against basically all of the West. And this is what I was far more afraid of given the overwhelming need of this country for more FDI.
I admit that RK's admonitions also concern me, since I know he's not given to spontaneous outbursts of alarm and comes to his conclusions only after careful thought.
GE.Indeed GE, the economic damage plus the military, ever anxious to toady up to their master soon develop a taste for turning their might on citizens rather than fight Abu Sayaf.
Army, police vow to lock up more drug suspects in Mindanao
http://www.philstar.com/nation/2016/10/10/1632219/army-police-vow-lock-more-drug-suspects-mindanao
IMHO it adds the need for an extra layer of caution to those who monger on the edge. You don't have to worry about the police so much any more. Be more concerned about the family and / or friends of the girl that you p i s s off or short-change.That's exactly what I've been thinking, RK. You don't even have to be mongering on the edge. Your GF is hot and a Pinoy is pissed off because he's been trying to get her for 5 years, and now you're the one fucking his little angel.
This is not 'bleeding heart liberal westerners'. This is Pinoy view from the coal face.
"People like us here don't even have enough money for rice. How much more for illegal drugs? Sometimes I watch the news and I wonder, 'is it really that bad?
http://news.trust.org/item/20161010055747-nx46e/
P.S. You are missing out on some of the sheer entertainment value of what is unfolding in the states, since you presumably don't get the same wall-to-wall cable news coverage that we get.IMO, the majority of the US doesn't follow cable politics very closely. Prime time ratings for Fox News are in the 3 M range. MSNBC gets probably half (if that). CNN ratings are pretty low too.
As a long time resident here I am actually feeling concerned about my own safety now, and that has never been the case for the past 20 years. I have always been aware that filipinos get very jealous of foreigners being successful, and they will try various ways to sabotage your business or career. The general feeling of my filipino friends is that if someone decides they don't like you it is now very easy to label you as a drug-pusher and then let the vigilantes do the rest. I know a Korean guy who was targeted in this way but he survived the "attack" and immediately moved himself and his family back to Sokor just last month.
That's why I always lie low here and try not to p.. anyone off.
This sounds like I am being alarmist but it is how I am currently feeling, and this is a very new development for me. I wonder if any of the other long-standing residents here are feeling the same anxieties as me.
Haha, that's why I don't really have any friends here. Personally, the uncertainty / unpredictableness makes me a little uneasy. But, I am shielded from much of the craziness that goes on here locally.
(apologies to the West Wing).
Let's say they get the drug trade under "control". Ok, then you have a lot people not doing drugs, but still don't have jobs or jobs that pay a livable wage. IMO, it seems like you would want to start tackling the economic issues at the same time.
In my amateur opinion, US businesses are going to get anxious about the environment. If D30 can turn their back on a long standing relationship with the US government, US businesses will want to de-risk their investment in the country as they could become targets. It's never the original decision that screws you, but the unintended consequences of short-sighted decisions.
GoodEnough
10-10-16, 12:41
(apologies to the West Wing).
Let's say they get the drug trade under "control". Ok, then you have a lot people not doing drugs, but still don't have jobs or jobs that pay a livable wage. IMO, it seems like you would want to start tackling the economic issues at the same time.
In my amateur opinion, US businesses are going to get anxious about the environment. If D30 can turn their back on a long standing relationship with the US government, US businesses will want to de-risk their investment in the country as they could become targets. It's never the original decision that screws you, but the unintended consequences of short-sighted decisions.Regardless of Government-led inferences to the contrary, drugs are not an appropriate metaphor for everything that needs urgent attention here. The fact is that US (and European) investment here in comparison with the rest of SE Asia is quite low, and Duterte has done nothing to enhance the probability of further investment. Historically, the failure to attract FDI has nothing to do with drugs and everything to do with poor physical infrastructure, restrictions on foreign ownership and control, corruption, poor IT infrastructure, the high cost and unreliability of electrical power and the poor quality of government services. Nothing has been done to address these issues, and I infer that they're not a terribly high priority. The notion of this country "going it alone" or achieving a Singapore-like status on its own are between absurd and delusional.
It's not as if the problems to which I refer above are arcane nuggets of knowledge; foreign chambers of commerce have been urgin the government to do something about them for countless years. Obviously, the government remains unconcerned about these and other critical issues such as the dilapidated air transport system and the lack of agricultural productivity.
GE.
Shining Wit
10-10-16, 12:57
(apologies to the West Wing).
Let's say they get the drug trade under "control". Ok, then you have a lot people not doing drugs, but still don't have jobs or jobs that pay a livable wage. IMO, it seems like you would want to start tackling the economic issues at the same time.
In my amateur opinion, US businesses are going to get anxious about the environment. If D30 can turn their back on a long standing relationship with the US government, US businesses will want to de-risk their investment in the country as they could become targets. It's never the original decision that screws you, but the unintended consequences of short-sighted decisions.How much of the drug use is escapism from the sheer bloody hopelessness of everyday life, or probably more accurately, existence?
It is not just US businesses reevaluating investment decisions, EU Australian Canadian etc companies likely to invest in SE Asia do not operate in a vacuum. The most insidious danger is less companies pulling out investment (after all in 6 years time there will be a new president) but redirecting new investment elsewhere, like Laos Cambodia Vietnam. Much of this, once lost, will not be regained for years, if ever. Glibly looking to Russia and China for replacement is naive. Russia's economy is skewed towards natural resources and China is not going to outsource their BPO's and call centers. They will use the Philippines as a lower cost labor center. At least the Filipinos will have the pleasure of knowing it is locally made crap, not Chinese made crap.
Several respected posters on here have commented on the approval of the average Filipino of the methods employed by Duterte. An interesting juxtaposition would be to simultaneously ask them their position on Mary Jane Veloso, the Filipino drug mule still under a death sentence in Indonesia. There was certainly a large enough outcry when Du30 appeared to tell President Widodo that he was prepared to let matters take their course.
Hungry for some hint of progress on the economic / business front, I saw this by Mongaya today. Alas massive top heavy bureacracy, endless PR posturing, inaction and questioning the need for Duterte to grant himself emergency powers is all I found.
http://www.sunstar.com.ph/cebu/opinion/2016/10/09/mongaya-first-100-days-another-war-502602
The comments section indicates growing suspicion of Duterte's motives.
I was hoping some common sense or at least pragmatism would creep into Duterte's behavior but no, he stubbornly proceeds on his path. The die is cast. We watch this slow motion train wreck unfold.
http://www.philstar.com/headlines/2016/10/10/1632213/reds-duterte-walking-his-talk-independent-foreign-policy
WestCoast1
10-10-16, 14:32
What the locals do know is that there have been several such murders in the community in the last four months, including two people with connections to the local Barangay Captain. SNIP One of my squeeze's boys has a bad habit of breaking curfew, and she's scared to death he's going to get caught in the crossfire. I've been in and out of the community numerous times, but always escorted by her or one of the kids. I confess now I am frightened about going in there any time in the foreseeable future. And I am seriously worried about their safety.
All my times in Davao were as you say a very safe experience and its a very nice city. But I have had the same experiences in Mindanao cities of Cagayan de Oro and Butuan which are admittedly smaller but still urbanized. They have never had the benefits of intensified death squads as Davao. Puerto Princessa and Tacloban as well are much smaller municipalities for sure but relatively are very safe but I never felt unsafe in jeeps or wandering around at night in those places.I think (see above) that GE was not talking about the safety level of mongers. Life is very different for locals all over phils (city / province). As where you and I can hop into a taxi at anytime, pinoy must travel by jeep, often multiple jeeps daily. 4 of my cebuana regulars and 1 of my Manila regulars have been robbed at knife-point in the last 2 years, while sitting in jeepneys, stuck in heavy and stopped traffic. MO is always the same: 1 guy on each side of the jeep, 1 guy at the back, all with knives. The girls gave up their purse / wallet, jewelry, and phones. The phone seems to hurt them the most, along with any ID lost (can't pick up remittances). Another provincial regular's sister was also held up (not in a jeep). Another cebuana's sister was robbed in the Osmena circle; someone grabbed her shopping bags after she left Robinson's.
It will be very difficult to transfer these successes to Metro Manila. The crushing magnitude of the slums of Manila and its criminality lording over the resident corresponding humanity sprawl over many vast disparate and disconnected areas, maybe 1000 x anything similar in Davao. True, its harder to reign in these things once they are standard. However, Cebu is roughly 2 x the size of Davao, the extrapolation could be made that Rody's effect might cut down the rate significantly.
Wicked Roger
10-10-16, 14:59
Regardless of Government-led inferences to the contrary, drugs are not an appropriate metaphor for everything that needs urgent attention here. The fact is that US (and European) investment here in comparison with the rest of SE Asia is quite low, and Duterte has done nothing to enhance the probability of further investment. Historically, the failure to attract FDI has nothing to do with drugs and everything to do with poor physical infrastructure, restrictions on foreign ownership and control, corruption, poor IT infrastructure, the high cost and unreliability of electrical power and the poor quality of government services. Nothing has been done to address these issues, and I infer that they're not a terribly high priority. The notion of this country "going it alone" or achieving a Singapore-like status on its own are between absurd and delusional.
It's not as if the problems to which I refer above are arcane nuggets of knowledge; foreign chambers of commerce have been urgin the government to do something about them for countless years. Obviously, the government remains unconcerned about these and other critical issues such as the dilapidated air transport system and the lack of agricultural productivity.
GE.I concur with GE (yet again). The lack if investment has been going for years and PNoy (Amavida's likely favorite friend) did zero to encourage it and let the pandemic corruption increase which further dissuaded FDI. He knew the power gen grid was useless, the airport rubbish, the roads inadequate but what did he do? Totally nothing IMHO and now we have D30 who has other priorities for now. This is a long term problem that is very hard to fix IMHO.
Drugs are the focus for now but so many die from random shooting / thefts every day so why so much fuss. Pinoys get jealous over lots of things including westerners with pinays so what? This has been going on for decades nothing is new. Westerners are killed randomly yet few on this board condemn it. Amavida never does but now he does hence my suspicions.
The worry for me is that D30 should get his focus also (not only) on improving FDI and finding ways to alleviate poverty etc. This is a hard task and under PNoy the poverty % did not change and some say it increased (again no one complained then but Amavida loves to show all sorts of issues now. Again why? Unless something is done in the next say 12-18 months on investment, job creation then having safer streets still does help many.
Wicked Roger
10-10-16, 15:15
With all due respect WR I don't think that this is a sensible line to take, because it emphasizes the "as long as I watch myself and I am OK then everything will be OK" line, and that is simply NOT the case any more. You will understand what I mean when you return to Cebu, because you are more "prominent" than many other foreigners (insert winking emoticon here).
Your reference to "the poorer parts of town" is actually much larger than simply the poor parts of Manila, Cebu or Davao. It refers to most of the small barangays attached to any of the major centers across Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao, and the realty is that there is a great deal of "danger" for the law-abiding residents of these barangays because they ALL have a terrible drug problem (shabu) that only becomes apparent when a drug-user goes crazy and kills someone, usually an innocent by-stander..I would agree with RK as we both know each other well. But when am back I am low profile I just wander around and have fun I am not like others who are way more prominent and I just stick to know locales and not wander off for 'excitement'. This is what I meant as I am aware of reports that claim much of Makati barangay (some say 92%) are drug infested.
Many years ago a good friend lost his business when his pinoy partners decide they wanted his cash flow and forced him to flee before they charged him (fraudulently) with estafa and other things. Family left with debts while his pinoy partners used the corrupt courts to make sure he would lose everything if he stayed. That is not new and is why I will never establish a business in the country.
I still won't drive along SRP in Cebu late at night as lots of car jacking. This is nothing new either. I keep my head down (but something else up LOL) and get boring.
My comment was more to those who say the whole country is exploding aka Amavida's rather negative views (and why has not left the country is beyond my ken as clearly he hates it here, is scared witless and has something to hide) is that if you are sensible there is less chance if being shot, mugged, killed etc. If you walk around Colon or Divisoria late at night you likely will be mugged or worse regardless of nationality (but more likely if a westerner IMHO). You can be mugged or worse on Mango when the clubs are out. So am saying be aware of your surroundings and don't do stupid stuff.
Your concerns are new to me and as GE said one should read into what we like. But you don't give a daily FR of how bad D30 is etc as Amavida does. His negatively is appalling and really he should disappear to a safer country where is sensitive nature is best coddled as how someone can live in a place he truly hates (as evidenced by his FRs) does not make sense IMHO.
So I try to 'balance' and 'contextualize' those negative links by saying it is not as bad as he says. As I don't think it is as bad as Amavida says. Maybe I don't articulate things as well sometime (but you know am just a simple bogam LOL).
But he also seems to want D30 to fail and that leads me back to my comments about why, when he said nothing about the rampant murders etc pre D30 - so is he a LP voting pinoy in disguise who has some bolthole in Aussie? Or is he scared of something given the focus on the drug war. Who know but his negative posts are just that. Never put into context and if he had his way maybe we should all leave and turn the lights off LOL.
Dark Knight1
10-10-16, 17:40
Are these Caucasian westerns the first truly guilty casualties of Duterte's war on drugs or are they just "innocent" mongers? Filipinos have always been more than willing to "rat" out foreigners who are working outside the law due to nationalistic, racist and jealous reasons but it seems since the Du30 presidency the cases have amplified.
Could these guys be just your average expats / tourists who are facing for the lack of a better word "trump up charges" due to Du30's massive campaign which has emboldened your average Filipino to become a vigilante or could they just be young, arrogant and idiotic Caucasians who thought they could come to a foreign county and skirt the law for few bucks ignoring the "Mango Republic's" reputation for a corrupt justice system, harsh jail sentences, unsanitary, overcrowded and dangerous prisons?
http://www.interaksyon.com/article/128172/watch--nbi-nabs-dutch-national-supplying-ecstasy-pills-to-bars-in-makati
Manila. Operatives of the National Bureau of Investigation's Anti-Illegal Drugs Division have arrested Dutch national Martin De Fong for supplying Ecstasy pills to bars in Makati.
Prior to his arrest on Thursday night, an asset pointed to authorities that De Fong was selling the illegal stimulant drug Ecstasy.
A meeting between De Fong and an asset was set up in a bar in Makati wherein the latter offered to buy from De Fong P10,000 worth of the Ecstasy pills.
http://news.abs-cbn.com/nation/metro-manila/06/20/16/2-foreign-nationals-nabbed-for-illegal-drugs-in-makati
MANILA Two foreign nationals were arrested in Makati City following a drug buy-bust operation by the Philippine National Police (PNP) Anti-Illegal Drugs Group on Monday evening.
The police asset initially bought 120 tablets of blue cookie monster ecstasy from Canadian Jeremy Eaton.
The asset then bought 50 more ecstasy tablets from Australian Damian John Berg.
Recovered from Easton and Berg where 170 ecstasy tablets with a street value of P255,000 and P100,000 boodle money.
Short term opportunities for the astute. Inevitable negative investor sentiment as we descend into Fascism.
https://209.188.21.24/articles/2016-10-10/business/peso-seen-weakening-to-49-vs-dollar/170549?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_term=newsletter&utm_content=newsletter&utm_campaign=newsletter
WR, posting walls of text laced with repetitive derogatory remarks? Really? Is that all you got? Been hanging around X-Man too much bro.
GoodEnough
10-11-16, 00:43
Short term opportunities for the astute. Inevitable negative investor sentiment as we descend into Fascism.
https://209.188.21.24/articles/2016-10-10/business/peso-seen-weakening-to-49-vs-dollar/170549?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_term=newsletter&utm_content=newsletter&utm_campaign=newsletter
WR, posting walls of text laced with repetitive derogatory remarks? Really? Is that all you got? Been hanging around X-Man too much bro.The peso is currently trading at about 48.4 to the US dollar, and I'm assuming that the slight depreciation of the currency has more to do with investor uncertainty or perhaps fear of instability than it does with economic fundamentals. I am not an Economist or a Political Scientist, but I'm guessing the effect of this administration on foreign investment won't be substantial given that there's so little FDI in the first place. At the worst, potential investors will avoid the country, but they've been doing that for decades given the protectionist character of the economy and laws inimical to foreign investment. Economically then, I don't expect that much will change here; poverty levels will remain constant, the physical and IT infrastructure will remain substandard, and radical change in these areas will not be forthcoming. At least that's my prediction based on the fact that the administration hasn't announced any major new initiatives in these areas.
As to the recent arrests of foreign nationals for drug distribution, I don't believe this is the first time this has happened. If, as it appears, these guys were actually selling illegal drugs, then what's the issue? Drug dealers, regardless of nationality, who violate the laws of a sovereign country should face the consequences of their actions. Note that these guys weren't shot on the street, killed by either police or vigilantes or treated with violence. They were evidently caught in a police sting operation of the sort repeated in the US, Europe and elsewhere every day. I see no cause for alarm here for those of us who don't go near illegal substances.
GE.
Does anyone really need AVD to tell us what the exchange rate is? I use http://www.xe.com/currencyconverter/.
Just a quick note for any newcomers. The AV does't like me because many years ago I hinted that he does't really spend much time in the Philippines. His so-called field reports are vague. More like a summary of previous posts. Over the years, several people have come to the same conclusion and challenged him.
If anyone has actually met the guy or believe that any of his messages prove that he spends time in the Philippines. Please let me know. I don't want any details. Just prove to me that he isn't some condescending braggart who self-inflates his ego at any opportunity.
He obviously reads newspapers because he knows a bit about Philippine politics. So, on that note I'd like to thank AV for inspiring GE to write so profusely and eloquently about the situation in Davao and the Philippines.
X Man.
Short term opportunities for the astute. Inevitable negative investor sentiment as we descend into Fascism.
https://209.188.21.24/articles/2016-10-10/business/peso-seen-weakening-to-49-vs-dollar/170549?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_term=newsletter&utm_content=newsletter&utm_campaign=newsletter
WR, posting walls of text laced with repetitive derogatory remarks? Really? Is that all you got? Been hanging around X-Man too much bro.
Does anyone really need AVD to tell us what the exchange rate is? I use http://www.xe.com/currencyconverter/.
Google is easier: just type in "dollar to php" and the current spot rate comes up. Weirdly at Czarina exchange, I've gotten higher rates than the current spot rate (possibly due to a slight lag if the previous day was higher). Mostly, I exchange via my bank account which dings me. 5 vs the spot.
Jack Burton
10-11-16, 02:02
Small sample size. Less then 30 offered opinion. Du30 gets over 80% support now that he's started doing what he said he would do.
Chocha Monger
10-11-16, 02:54
Are these Caucasian westerns the first truly guilty casualties of Duterte's war on drugs or are they just "innocent" mongers? Filipinos have always been more than willing to "rat" out foreigners who are working outside the law due to nationalistic, racist and jealous reasons but it seems since the Du30 presidency the cases have amplified.
Could these guys be just your average expats / tourists who are facing for the lack of a better word "trump up charges" due to Du30's massive campaign which has emboldened your average Filipino to become a vigilante or could they just be young, arrogant and idiotic Caucasians who thought they could come to a foreign county and skirt the law for few bucks ignoring the "Mango Republic's" reputation for a corrupt justice system, harsh jail sentences, unsanitary, overcrowded and dangerous prisons?
http://www.interaksyon.com/article/128172/watch--nbi-nabs-dutch-national-supplying-ecstasy-pills-to-bars-in-makati.A lot of bar girls use that blue Cookie Monster ecstasy and shabu to keep them full of energy, slim and slender. It was interesting that these guys were allegedly supplying bars. Without shabu and other drugs to keep the girls lean and hungry there is likely to be less of the skinny spinner types that most mongers demand in the bars. Mongers should expect the girls to be less talkative and outgoing without blue Cookie Monster to help them overcome shyness and inhibitions. Perhaps De Lima should have used some of her product to drop some the weight she carries around.
Wicked Roger
10-11-16, 04:22
Manila. Operatives of the National Bureau of Investigation's Anti-Illegal Drugs Division have arrested Dutch national Martin De Fong for supplying Ecstasy pills to bars in Makati.
Prior to his arrest on Thursday night, an asset pointed to authorities that De Fong was selling the illegal stimulant drug Ecstasy.
A meeting between De Fong and an asset was set up in a bar in Makati wherein the latter offered to buy from De Fong P10,000 worth of the Ecstasy pills.
MANILA Two foreign nationals were arrested in Makati City following a drug buy-bust operation by the Philippine National Police (PNP) Anti-Illegal Drugs Group on Monday evening.
The police asset initially bought 120 tablets of blue cookie monster ecstasy from Canadian Jeremy Eaton.
The asset then bought 50 more ecstasy tablets from Australian Damian John Berg.
Recovered from Easton and Berg where 170 ecstasy tablets with a street value of P255,000 and P100,000 boodle money.If you sell drugs you deserve what you get.
Berg the Aussie was reported released after CCTV showed his innocence (and police planting stuff on him etc. Same old story). But the Eaton fellow I think he got life after a 3 month trila (amazingly; why how quick the system suddenly worked?
Wicked Roger
10-11-16, 04:46
The peso is currently trading at about 48.4 to the US dollar, and I'm assuming that the slight depreciation of the currency has more to do with investor uncertainty or perhaps fear of instability than it does with economic fundamentals. I am not an Economist or a Political Scientist, but I'm guessing the effect of this administration on foreign investment won't be substantial given that there's so little FDI in the first place. At the worst, potential investors will avoid the country, but they've been doing that for decades given the protectionist character of the economy and laws inimical to foreign investment. Economically then, I don't expect that much will change here; poverty levels will remain constant, the physical and IT infrastructure will remain substandard, and radical change in these areas will not be forthcoming. At least that's my prediction based on the fact that the administration hasn't announced any major new initiatives in these areas.
As to the recent arrests of foreign nationals for drug distribution, I don't believe this is the first time this has happened. If, as it appears, these guys were actually selling illegal drugs, then what's the issue? Drug dealers, regardless of nationality, who violate the laws of a sovereign country should face the consequences of their actions. Note that these guys weren't shot on the street, killed by either police or vigilantes or treated with violence. They were evidently caught in a police sting operation of the sort repeated in the US, Europe and elsewhere every day. I see no cause for alarm here for those of us who don't go near illegal substances.
GE.Personally the pesos was always overvalued and is now adjusting. However the lack of FDI for decades maybe does not help etc.
I did read somewhere d30 was off to China to ask for billion to kick start the infrastructure if so expect a lot of Chinese workers to be in the Philippines soon.
As for the drug issue I posted earlier that the Aussie man was released as CCTV showed the PNP lied / planted stuff (what a surprise there LOL) and below is the link.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3829763/Australian-man-Damian-Berg-accused-selling-cookie-monster-ecstasy-released-jail.html
Thank goodness for CCTV I say as it saved another couple in Cebu a few years ago despite the local police chief saying CCTV is not reliable but his eye witness (10 years old) was!! (and by the way can I have the reward money now LOL). That police chief is now in Zamboanga for all his troubles. Likely a reward for making the Cebu police look totally stupid at the time.
The rich beginning to push back against the madness. Ok for the poor but not here thanks.
"Quezon City homeowners, cops clash over Tokhang".
http://www.philstar.com/metro/2016/09/27/1627745/quezon-city-homeowners-cops-clash-over-tokhang
The peso is currently trading at about 48.4 to the US dollar, and I'm assuming that the slight depreciation of the currency has more to do with investor uncertainty or perhaps fear of instability than it does with economic fundamentals. I am not an Economist or a Political Scientist, but I'm guessing the effect of this administration on foreign investment won't be substantial given that there's so little FDI in the first place. At the worst, potential investors will avoid the country, but they've been doing that for decades given the protectionist character of the economy and laws inimical to foreign investment. Economically then, I don't expect that much will change here; poverty levels will remain constant, the physical and IT infrastructure will remain substandard, and radical change in these areas will not be forthcoming. At least that's my prediction based on the fact that the administration hasn't announced any major new initiatives in these areas.
To be fair GE, although the article is discussing investor confidence decreasing since state sanctioned murder began, extrinsic factors are at play in the markets. ID love to share your optimism, cautious pessimism is my current view based on events. Is this a gut feeling for you or are there indicators you could point to?
As to the recent arrests of foreign nationals for drug distribution, I don't believe this is the first time this has happened. If, as it appears, these guys were actually selling illegal drugs, then what's the issue? Drug dealers, regardless of nationality, who violate the laws of a sovereign country should face the consequences of their actions. Note that these guys weren't shot on the street, killed by either police or vigilantes or treated with violence. They were evidently caught in a police sting operation of the sort repeated in the US, Europe and elsewhere every day. I see no cause for alarm here for those of us who don't go near illegal substances.
GE.I have no argument at all with with prosecution of big dealers GE. The good old days advice of keeping your nose clean no longer holds. With state sanctioned murder now in vogue anybody can be murdered by anybody on mere accusation and likely no investigation, ever. That is the point the government propaganda would like people to overlook.
A lot of bar girls use that blue Cookie Monster ecstasy and shabu to keep them full of energy, slim and slender. It was interesting that these guys were allegedly supplying bars. Without shabu and other drugs to keep the girls lean and hungry there is likely to be less of the skinny spinner types that most mongers demand in the bars. Mongers should expect the girls to be less talkative and outgoing without blue Cookie Monster to help them overcome shyness and inhibitions. Perhaps De Lima should have used some of her product to drop some the weight she carries around.Hey Choca what do you base this claim on? The girls sit on bar stools or shuffle on stages freezing their butts off for long hours with only punter drinks or snacks to keep them going. Their (arguable) looks are all they have, drug abusers quickly lose their looks devolving that classic junkie look and don't last long. Just interested to know.
Playing with fire? I wonder how long President Death can get away with this? Surely he is burning up his political capital at a rapid rate?
https://209.188.21.24/articles/2016-10-11/news/duterte-curses-priests-for-calling-end-on-drug-war/170763?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_term=newsletter&utm_content=newsletter&utm_campaign=newsletter
To those who would have it that it's all ponys and rainbows in Dutertopia I contend there is gathering opposition to this Fascist.
http://entertainment.inquirer.net/203552/actress-agot-isidro-calls-duterte-psychopath-palace-reacts/amp
"Cherry Pie Picache backs Agot Isidro, opposes death penalty, drug slays".
http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/823794/cherry-pie-picache-backs-agot-isidro-opposes-death-penalty-drug-slays/amp
An interesting read. For those of us with clinical experience this is pretty close to the mark. Before the Duterte defenders league leaps into action, this relates to a Filipino divorce case. Having lived one, I'm well aware.
http://news.abs-cbn.com/halalan2016/focus/04/19/16/understanding-duterte-what-a-psych-report-says
The church has much to answer for no doubt but their role in opposing bad leaders has been valuable. If as this writer contends they are terrified of this tyrant then the likelihood of dictatorship is increased.
""There is a lot of fear because the way people have been killed is vigilante-style so anyone could become a target. . . . There is no way of protecting yourself. ".
Another priest, who like several others asked for anonymity because of possible reprisals, said it was risky to question the killings openly. Dozens of drug addicts and pushers are being killed every day, but anyone who criticizes Duterte's campaign could suffer a similar fate, he said. ".
http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2016/10/11/asia-pacific/catholic-church-philippines-subdued-drug-killings/#. V_ywD-grKM8.
FreebieFan
10-11-16, 10:55
Theres most certainly a witches brew taking place.
Govt says there's an 80% satisfaction rate with Pangulo.
De Lima soon to be on trial.
Actresses daring to call The Mouthy One a psycho.
Killings every day in every place.
Ramos saying " this isn't what I expected ".
Mr Xi thinking " this is easier than I thought it would be ".
Peso going down.
Numbers of people making comments in a variety of social media going up.
Posters here indicating anxiety.
The genie is definitely out of the bottle.
The rich beginning to push back against the madness. Ok for the poor but not here thanks.
"Quezon City homeowners, cops clash over Tokhang".
http://www.philstar.com/metro/2016/09/27/1627745/quezon-city-homeowners-cops-clash-over-tokhang
I suspect they're worried they no longer may act with impunity. Scary to lose the privilege of sanctuary behind the high walls.
An interesting read. For those of us with clinical experience this is pretty close to the mark. Before the Duterte defenders league leaps into action, this relates to a Filipino divorce case. Having lived one, I'm well aware.
http://news.abs-cbn.com/halalan2016/focus/04/19/16/understanding-duterte-what-a-psych-report-saysStockholm syndrome, I presume.
Wicked Roger
10-11-16, 15:07
To those who would have it that it's all ponys and rainbows in Dutertopia I contend there is gathering opposition to this Fascist.
http://entertainment.inquirer.net/203552/actress-agot-isidro-calls-duterte-psychopath-palace-reacts/amp
"Cherry Pie Picache backs Agot Isidro, opposes death penalty, drug slays".
http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/823794/cherry-pie-picache-backs-agot-isidro-opposes-death-penalty-drug-slays/ampYou never place your links into a context.
Both are wannabe people seeking attention who come from or are in the privileged elite So they won't like what is being said and while they may add at the end "I support D30" they likely say it for effect as need people to watch them somehow. They crave media and this way they can some coverage in the papers well some at least.
They are like De Lima who seeks media attention away from her troubles and surprisingly wants now to challenge the impunity of prosecution of a sitting president when she did not do so after the SC ruled the DAP scam illegal and her 'best buddy PNoy' was the president. Clearly as DOJ secretary and 'unbiased' (LOL) she should have taken up the cudgels then?
The 2 ladies are total non entities Amavdia and you know it. So why post it? Or of you do place it in the context of wider things ie they are the simple on the arse of an elephant so who cares?
Post something positive as you clearly don't like the country you live in LOL. So move.
Wicked Roger
10-11-16, 15:59
A few interesting links for those who want to read it which are generally more positive than some of the negative stuff we get from some. All from Philippine media source.
The one on poverty is a good read and I think fair although the editorial forgets that for the last 6 years with PNoy poverty never got better really and some say it got worse. But this plus other factors are certainly areas the new president has to focus.
The SWS survey shows some interesting results, the ABC group losing some satisfaction and some E group as well but still high.
And he is now flipping back to loving USA– maybe this is way of stirring up love for his country from the donors? Who knows but it can be confusing to some LOL.
http://www.philstar.com/headlines/2016/10/11/1632627/duterte-keep-us-ties-asks-if-military-alliances-needed-all
http://www.tribune.net.ph/headlines/duterte-s-net-satisfaction-at-76-shows-sws-poll
http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/824147/duterte-maintains-excellent-trust-rating-in-first-3-months
http://opinion.inquirer.net/98098/what-about-war-on-poverty
Apart from this the news also has such heady topics as the Miss World pageant in the Philippines (real highbrow reporting) – not sure what to read at times so much choice between alleged corrupt narco politicians, drug war, more solons being charged for corruption on the PDAF etc, Kris Aquino (who she Ed?) bleating again, some non entity entertainment 'celebrities' either calling the press a nutter or a nice man plus of course the obligatory diet of soap opera new – sometimes one is spoilt for choice in what to read first LOL.
Wicked Roger
10-11-16, 17:59
IMHO, all this negativity by some about the current administration overshadows more important concerns for Joe Pinoy aka the person on the street. While Amavida like to tell everyone the country is going to dogs while he stays in hiding in the CR others have more immediate concerns and is why many still support a president overwhelmingly.
Much has been said about the poor state of the health system. In Cebu I will only go to one hospital (Chong Hua). Yet that is like a dog's breakfast at times, with a admin system that is outdated, doctors who at times don't turn up and overcrowding in the waiting areas. I still only go there as IMHO (and I think the US government's opinion also) it is the best in the city.
But the current state of the ever growing dengue problem coupled with the threat of the Zika virus is IMHO way more important for many than drug deaths. The poor are the ones who get hit by this as mosquitos breed in area of poor sanitation / stagnant water. While the buggers are everywhere this is something the current health system can do without and add Zika to it then I suspect there will be huge problems.
http://cebudailynews.inquirer.net/108148/cebu-city-declares-state-of-calamity
http://cebudailynews.inquirer.net/108147/be-careful-but-no-need-to-panic-cebu-provincial-health-office
So while some of us wax lyrical about how bad D30 is and how much he is bringing the country to a point of no return before Amavida and his band of loyal LP rich elite supporters stage a coup d'etat LOL, remember the ordinary person on the street does not care about drug deaths. They care more about not getting dengue or Zika as the cost of that is expensive and the effect can be debilitating or worse permanent.
So be careful in Cebu or Iloilo as these apparently are hot spots at the moment. And think more about what the little man thinks of sometimes as really many don't care of another drug pusher / lord / addict is dead IMHO as there are more immediate things to worry about.
GoodEnough
10-11-16, 23:42
I've often shared WR's point of view that both local and international media have not bothered to learn anything of the context within which this drug war is being conducted. This story however doesn't need any context, and it's deeply disturbing as it could have happened to anyone: http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/2016/10/10/they-put-gun-my-head-aussie-man.
GE.
Thanks for the link. So many question unanswered. Did the police get into the safe? Probably yes. And why was the other guy saying sorry?
Here's another link with more info from the GF.
I've often shared WR's point of view that both local and international media have not bothered to learn anything of the context within which this drug war is being conducted. This story however doesn't need any context, and it's deeply disturbing as it could have happened to anyone: http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/2016/10/10/they-put-gun-my-head-aussie-man.
GE.
GoodEnough
10-12-16, 00:54
I've no idea of the veracity of this article. However, if it's true, it lends substance to the argument that AV has been making. The elimination of a million jobs here, would cause the local economy to totter quite a bit, and given that BPO operations do not require extensive infrastructure or investment, they're easy to move. http://okd2.com/57-us-bpo-firms-mulls-pulling-philippine-operations-2018-following-dutertes-go-hell-remarks/.
GE.
. . . remember the ordinary person on the street does not care about drug deaths. They care more about not getting dengue or Zika as the cost of that is expensive and the effect can be debilitating or worse permanent.
So be careful in Cebu or Iloilo as these apparently are hot spots at the moment. And think more about what the little man thinks of sometimes as really many don't care of another drug pusher / lord / addict is dead IMHO as there are more immediate things to worry about.With all due respect WR, I think what you have put here is your opinion, as is much of the other commentary here. I hope readers are discerning between FACTS (which are very difficult to ascertain) and OPINION. Most of the plethora of press links quoted on this thread are remarkably deficient in details / facts and so must be seen as opinion, whether in the daily Philippine rags or the so-called highly reputable international press.
I don't agree with WR that "the ordinary person on the street does not care about drug deaths". They absolutely do, because many of these "ordinary people", (whoever they are), are related to the people who have been killed. I know 2 families in my wife's province who are very very scared about drug deaths because there is one less person in each family now.
Few know about Zika yet as it has not touched Northern Luzon. This is a "fact", because I have asked members of my family
This post is not meant to denigrate ANYONE, nor am I saying robust debate and airing of opinions is not good and healthy. I am merely cautioning readers to be discerning in what constitutes facts and what is opinion..
I also am still wondering just what will happen here in the long run, because it seems, from the flaky newspaper articles, that Du30 tends to change his policies (flip-flop) from day-to-day so it is hard to get a handle on who he hates, who he likes, what he plans as long-term policies for the country, and where the Philippines' alliances will end up.
It's a bit speculative right now.
Wicked Roger
10-12-16, 03:43
I've often shared WR's point of view that both local and international media have not bothered to learn anything of the context within which this drug war is being conducted. This story however doesn't need any context, and it's deeply disturbing as it could have happened to anyone: http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/2016/10/10/they-put-gun-my-head-aussie-man.
GE.I included another link earlier. Same story. And is widely noted in the press. SBS is a news channel I look at a lot when am in Australia as I like it style of understated reporting and documentaries. The problem I see here is the police and how to deal with this. There are so many fires bring it is hard to figure out which to put out (or how to) before another starts. This is bad publicity and given I have stayed at the same hotel is of concern to a degree.
The message from this is likely better than any advisory from a government IMHO but this can't be blamed on D30 as this has been the police attitude for years and nothing is changing it seems.
2 things for certain.
1. Major oppositions to any of Dutere changes. Present beneficiaries and stakeholders is this corrupt system will quietly sabotage Dutere at every move. Please note the bar raids have started again in Angeles without the fear of Dutere.
2. Price of poon will go up if Dutere can positively change the employment and wages. Look at Thailand as an example. I don't mind paying more myself.
In closing, it is very hard to judge Dutere's changes and policies in this short amount of time.
Wicked Roger
10-12-16, 03:52
I also am still wondering just what will happen here in the long run, because it seems, from the flaky newspaper articles, that Du30 tends to change his policies (flip-flop) from day-to-day so it is hard to get a handle on who he hates, who he likes, what he plans as long-term policies for the country, and where the Philippines' alliances will end up.
It's a bit speculative right now.Everyone does but to run down a country for drug deaths when these have been happening for ages (and not mention it before) is somewhat silly and one eyed IMHO. I was trying to get across that for many in Cebu dengue is a real threat and also this takes people out of the food chain or worse. Zika maybeunheard of by many so far but this is something waiting to happen if who reports about the spread across Asia are to be beloved. It will impact this country badly given the lack of a credible health system etc.
Yes drug deaths take one member away but if they are doing drugs I have no worry. Two people I know have sons / brothers who are users. They are worried about this of course but at the same time hope it makes their siblings reform or else they are sort of accepting the fate. Their siblings are not supporting the family, they steal from the family, some are banned form the family house but find ways to return and steal. It is destructive in the family and have seen first hand how bad this can be. So while there is one less family member it is at times an unproductive one and at one of my friends hope her son is arrested and soon.
The poor reporting standards in the country don't help (only yesterday 3 papers reported the same news differently!) and D30 flip flop is worrying as seems he is making policy on the hoof. As many have said before he should get more schools, roads, hospitals etc but there are so many fires to put out and more are started each day.
Personally the pesos was always overvalued and is now adjusting. However the lack of FDI for decades maybe does not help etc.
I did read somewhere d30 was off to China to ask for billion to kick start the infrastructure if so expect a lot of Chinese workers to be in the Philippines soon.
Fx trading has always been too complex for me ($5-6 trillion in currency is traded daily). Yeah, China isn't stupid. They will loan them the money and then just get the money back by requiring to use Chinese companies for the project. While they might employ "some" local workers, but net-net it's a shitty deal. Additionally, they'll end up doing substandard work and it will become a fubar.
I've no idea of the veracity of this article. However, if it's true, it lends substance to the argument that AV has been making. The elimination of a million jobs here, would cause the local economy to totter quite a bit, and given that BPO operations do not require extensive infrastructure or investment, they're easy to move. http://okd2.com/57-us-bpo-firms-mulls-pulling-philippine-operations-2018-following-dutertes-go-hell-remarks/.
GE.I read an article where BPO jobs contribute more to the GDP than remittances. Additionally, they use contractors and they aren't corporate employees. There are a lot of buildings that have "corporate names" on them, so I'd imagine some companies are locked into some type of commercial lease. Seems like it would have a rolling impact in the future. (IMO, D30 seems to be going for the short easy gains rather than being concerned about the long run.).
GoodEnough
10-12-16, 05:31
Fx trading has always been too complex for me ($5-6 trillion in currency is traded daily). Yeah, China isn't stupid. They will loan them the money and then just get the money back by requiring to use Chinese companies for the project. While they might employ "some" local workers, but net-net it's a shitty deal. Additionally, they'll end up doing substandard work and it will become a fubar.That's pretty much the way it works with all bilateral assistance. Korea demands the use of Korean contractors, and tehe Japanese use only Japanese contractors. This is actually not a bad course of action since it virtually eliminates local corruption. Don't know why you would think that Chinese engineering and construction work would be shoddy. China has excellent infrastructure talent and capabilities, but for sure the work would be done by Chinese companies which the Chinese Government could hold accountable for meeting speceficiations. ADB and World Bank infrastructure projects too are typically awarded to foreign contractors, though it's not a requirement.
What strikes me is the continuation of the "hold your hand out" approach. There's no reason that the Philippine Government couldn't construct large infrastructure on its own, financing such projects the way that other governments to. The country has a strong credit rating and the cost of borrowing is low. It's the "beggar" mentality that mystified me. When Thailand, for example, decided to build a new airport, construct its monorail system and build a subway, it didn't go hat in hand to the US, China, the EU, Japan, or anyplace else. It just built what it needed to build. I wonder if this country will ever take responsibility for its own development rather than waiting for someone else to offer.
GE.
That's pretty much the way it works with all bilateral assistance. Korea demands the use of Korean contractors, and tehe Japanese use only Japanese contractors. This is actually not a bad course of action since it virtually eliminates local corruption. Don't know why you would think that Chinese engineering and construction work would be shoddy. China has excellent infrastructure talent and capabilities, but for sure the work would be done by Chinese companies which the Chinese Government could hold accountable for meeting speceficiations. ADB and World Bank infrastructure projects too are typically awarded to foreign contractors, though it's not a requirement.
What strikes me is the continuation of the "hold your hand out" approach. There's no reason that the Philippine Government couldn't construct large infrastructure on its own, financing such projects the way that other governments to. The country has a strong credit rating and the cost of borrowing is low. It's the "beggar" mentality that mystified me. When Thailand, for example, decided to build a new airport, construct its monorail system and build a subway, it didn't go hat in hand to the US, China, the EU, Japan, or anyplace else. It just built what it needed to build. I wonder if this country will ever take responsibility for its own development rather than waiting for someone else to offer.
GE.I lived in the Bay area before and the Bay Bridge was a disaster.
http://media.sacbee.com/static/sinclair/sinclair.jquery/baybridge/index.html
Another article:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2012-09-27/the-cracks-in-chinas-shiny-buildings
Agree, it does seem weird. It seems like PH hasn't built up the expertise for large infrastructure projects. Anecdotally, I was near SM St Mesa and they are building an elevated railway / road and the surveying team were westerners. Anyway, caveat emperor.
GoodEnough
10-12-16, 09:09
I lived in the Bay area before and the Bay Bridge was a disaster.
http://media.sacbee.com/static/sinclair/sinclair.jquery/baybridge/index.html
Another article:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2012-09-27/the-cracks-in-chinas-shiny-buildings
Agree, it does seem weird. It seems like PH hasn't built up the expertise for large infrastructure projects. Anecdotally, I was near SM St Mesa and they are building an elevated railway / road and the surveying team were westerners. Anyway, caveat emperor.I get it. China has some inexperienced contractors. On the other hand, it was totally irresponsible to select a company that had never built any bridge, much less a suspension bridge to build a major piece of bridge infrastructure. Conversely, and this was my point, China also has some highly experienced, highly capable construction firms fully capable of building the types of infrastructure required here. Of course such expertise is also readily available from the US, Japan, EU countries, Singapore, Korea, and others. Interestingly, some of the major companies here--Ayala, SM, San Miguel--also have expertise in the design and construction of large-scale infrastructure and will often use a mix of expatriate and local engineers. Projects built by DPWH here however tend to be shoddy and poorly designed, as anyone who has ever driven on a national highway here can attest.
GE.
Traffic crisis in Manila? Oooh I know let's build a bullet train from Clark to Subic!
There's a fine expressway for motor vehicles already but I guess the Gordon's need billions more in their offshore accounts. Hilarious if it wasn't so sad.
http://www.mb.com.ph/duterte-govt-pushes-subic-clark-bullet-train-project/
The daily contradictions are becoming tiresome. I had been following closely trying to make sense of his policies but it's a hopeless task. As a great Aussie once said: 'he's all over the place like a mad woman's [CodeWord140] (http://isgprohibitedwords.info?CodeWord=CodeWord140)'. Excuse the vulgarity.
https://209.188.21.24/articles/2016-10-12/news/duterte-backtracks-no-intention-to-cut-military-ties-with-allies/170883?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_term=newsletter&utm_content=newsletter&utm_campaign=newsletter
Wicked Roger
10-12-16, 17:31
Fx trading has always been too complex for me ($5-6 trillion in currency is traded daily). Yeah, China isn't stupid. They will loan them the money and then just get the money back by requiring to use Chinese companies for the project. While they might employ "some" local workers, but net-net it's a shitty deal. Additionally, they'll end up doing substandard work and it will become a fubar.The Chinese do this in Africa but at times suffer when rebels / terrorists kill the workers. The Saudis did this in Djbouit where in a country with 98% Catholics the country runs on the Muslim week (Sunday to Thursday). He who pays the piper etc.
Some Chinese firms are excellent but I suspect if D30 asked the USA it would come with lots of conditions, too many idiot politicians in an election year trying to score points so making any disbursement slow and possibly difficult. China won't ask and will provide for a price of course (and at the same time [CodeWord140] (http://isgprohibitedwords.info?CodeWord=CodeWord140) of the USA LOL).
In my opinion, step by step the country is being frog marched to autocratic absolute power. The exact opposite of the decentralised federalism promised before the election.
"Malawak na malawak yung kapangyarihan na nilalagay nyo dito at nakakabahala kung wala talagang plano talaga," Recto said.
(The scope of power you are putting here is very vast and it's really alarming if there's no plan yet.).
http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/824551/recto-scope-of-duterte-emergency-powers-alarming
GoodEnough
10-12-16, 23:34
In my opinion, step by step the country is being frog marched to autocratic absolute power. The exact opposite of the decentralised federalism promised before the election.
"Malawak na malawak yung kapangyarihan na nilalagay nyo dito at nakakabahala kung wala talagang plano talaga," Recto said.
(The scope of power you are putting here is very vast and it's really alarming if there's no plan yet.).
http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/824551/recto-scope-of-duterte-emergency-powers-alarmingI read the article quickly and prior to having coffee so I may have missed something. However, it appears that while the administration wants the power, there's no actual plan for traffic reduction, much less a budget that would allow the the implementation of any plan. Is that how others read this? Because if that's correct, then there's little point.
GE.
FreebieFan
10-13-16, 01:30
Traffic crisis in Manila? Oooh I know let's build a bullet train from Clark to Subic!
There's a fine expressway for motor vehicles already but I guess the Gordon's need billions more in their offshore accounts. Hilarious if it wasn't so sad.
http://www.mb.com.ph/duterte-govt-pushes-subic-clark-bullet-train-project/Bullet train in Philippines. Thats almost like an April Fools type joke. If they start the discussions about today, . Hmm it will be ready. In. . well I think I will be long dead before the bullet ever whistles down that track.
Japan yes. China yes. Malaysia yes. Philippines. Naaaagh, not a chance.
GoodEnough
10-13-16, 02:16
Bullet train in Philippines. Thats almost like an April Fools type joke. If they start the discussions about today, . Hmm it will be ready. In. . well I think I will be long dead before the bullet ever whistles down that track.
Japan yes. China yes. Malaysia yes. Philippines. Naaaagh, not a chance.I saw on the news today that the government is contemplating the construction of a bullet train that will move at an average speed of 60 kph, which is probably about half the speed of a normal non-bullet train. Leaving aside for the moment the misnomer of bullet train, the larger question is, what would be the point? Clark terminals are in urgent need of repair. The ground equipment is antiquated, and the airport as it currently stands is hardly capable of handling substantially increased traffic.
Given that the government here pays for nothing in the way of major infrastructure, I suppose it will wait for Korea, Japan or China to offer to build a new train and a rehabilitated airport for them. There's basically no chance of this happening during the lifetime of my grandchildren.
GE.
In my opinion, step by step the country is being frog marched to autocratic absolute power. The exact opposite of the decentralised federalism promised before the election.
"Malawak na malawak yung kapangyarihan na nilalagay nyo dito at nakakabahala kung wala talagang plano talaga," Recto said.
(The scope of power you are putting here is very vast and it's really alarming if there's no plan yet.).
http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/824551/recto-scope-of-duterte-emergency-powers-alarmingAlright after the interminable posted links of the last week including the musings of Cherry Pie Whoever, the frog March into a 21st century Marcos alarmism has to be looked through a a prism of reality.
The Phils is run in reality by a oligarch of disparete regionally based super wealthy families who in this election spent little time pursuing overt National political power but are more entrenched in the mainatainance of thier regional political power bases so so far have no fear of Duterte. He has not threatened them in the least.
My guess is they view him as a provincial vulgarian who is taking out the garbage. He has an enormous groundswell of grass roots support amongst the lower classes which constitute most of the national electorate, none of whom are represented by the authors of he many links posted here as none of them reside in the wretched neighborhoods wracked by meth, as do none of the ISG posters like us.
On August 8 Duterte gave a speech naming 150+ judges, local politicians and militray, ex military as narcos. If he were an effective fascist with a plan there would have been a pogrom wiping these elites out. Instead its been mostly a backtrack of real and supposed misidentity, denials, a few scattered arrests and ancillary busts due to focusing of attention on the problem. The best case is hopefully the many who are gulity but sneak away at least reduce the mechanized production of meth unheard of in the western world.
Fascism is the alliance of government, the security forces and the wealthy to suppress the rights of individual. Complete autocratic power in the phils is impossible without this combination. Duterte presently has a loose nationwide unaffiliated cooperation of the locally based constabulatory forces throughout the country to stamp out the meth problem. Has it had collateral damge? Of course! Its the Phils! When asked for Amavidas evidence that it goes beyond that focus of meth he produced large Cocaine busts which would occur anywhere in the civlilized world as well as minor pot arrests of celebrties none of which resulted in draconian results and likely were let loose? Please update.
None of the sane methodical self serving actual oligarchs of the country who wield the real economic and if need be veto power over real political change have any interest in realigning the country's main military / economic axis from the West / US / Korea / Aus / Jap (along with the seperate huge non military pure economic China ties) to a Political Military China and whacky non sequiter Russian ties. Its all just bluster.
The crude Roddy will be allowed to try to clean up the streets as long as he doesn't upset actual power. I have no doubt the US and western Defense systems have high tech earth based components based in the Phils protecting Asian / Aust interests which go beyond the protecting the maritime shipping sea lanes that won't just go away from one President blowing smoke.
Duterte will continue cleaning up the streets in his crude way, with his crude manner, affecting mostly the little players and poor addicts. There will be a few minor fish medium sized fish caught in the net along the way. The oligarchs will allow this to happen as long as normal business as usual is not affected.
This is a problem. What to do? What to do?
Light bulb!
GoodEnough
10-13-16, 10:01
Well done and thoughtful analysis Pantot, and you're probably right. The one cautionary note that might undermine the argument somewhat is that, during his campaign, Duterte spent quite a lot of time railing against the oligarchs who have controlled the country for centuries, together with bought and paid for politicians. At some point Duterte might have to at least appear to break part of the oligarchical stranglehold by actually allowing in some competition in heretofore closed economic sectors.
In the "Index of Fragile States," which annually ranks 174 countries on a constellation of factors that indicate the possibilities of state failure, the Philippines was ranked 54 in the 2016 edition; falling within the "strong warning" category. It's one of the few countries that has lost serious ground on the index between 2010 and 2015. So, at least in terms of the 15 or 16 factors analyzed for the rankings, this place is close to the edge of the abyss, but not yet in danger of leaping into the chasm. Nevertheless it's securely in the top third of the most fragile countries and has been there for quite a while. On this index, the most fragile--Somalia--holds the number one rank, while the least fragile--Finland--is 179, so being in the top third isn't a positive sign. Here's the link: http://foreignpolicy.com/fragile-states-index-2016-brexit-syria-refugee-europe-anti-migrant-boko-haram/.
GE.
Shining Wit
10-13-16, 13:49
I saw on the news today that the government is contemplating the construction of a bullet train that will move at an average speed of 60 kph, which is probably about half the speed of a normal non-bullet train. Leaving aside for the moment the misnomer of bullet train, the larger question is, what would be the point? Clark terminals are in urgent need of repair. The ground equipment is antiquated, and the airport as it currently stands is hardly capable of handling substantially increased traffic.
Given that the government here pays for nothing in the way of major infrastructure, I suppose it will wait for Korea, Japan or China to offer to build a new train and a rehabilitated airport for them. There's basically no chance of this happening during the lifetime of my grandchildren.
GE.Re-reading the article linked to by Amavida, it said 60 kilometer bullet train which I took to mean length, which sounds about right. GE may have misheard, or quite plausibly been the subject of sloppy reporting. Regardless, it is a waste of time and money, as it would only affect people travelling from Clark to Subic and vice versa, as intermediate stops { where? } would negate the speed.
What really would be a shock to everybody's system would be a three pronged plan to reduce congestion in Manila.
1 Rehabilitate the PNR line southwards and provide a semi-decent service, hopefully reducing the bus and car traffic from a 'commuter belt'.
2 Rehabilitate and extend the PNR line northwards. Per Google maps, this does not even cross out of Metro Manila. This would reduce the road traffic and possibly encourage development into Bulacan province and also possibly Pampanga.
3 The total pipe dream. With the northern PNR line extended to Clark, and why not to Tarlac and the north, drive an extension from somewhere near Tutuban station into the North Docks and the International Container Terminal. How much traffic could be eliminated in Manila by using rail to intermodal hubs near Clark and somewhere in say Batangas Province?
Total fantasy I know, but I only smoke tobacco. I have no desire to join Amavida's 750,000 locked up {I assume they are not buried and that was a misprint } in the military bases.
While the genteel hypothesise thank god someone has the guts to speak out against the bloody madness.
"Amid a piling body count in the government's bloody war on drugs, Sen. Leila De Lima on Thursday urged Filipinos to join what she called the country's "greatest fight" since the 1986 Edsa People Power Revolution that toppled the dictatorship of Ferdinand Marcos. ".
http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/825032/fight-ph-greatest-fight-since-people-power-revolution-de-lima
Wicked Roger
10-13-16, 15:29
While the genteel hypothesise thank god someone has the guts to speak out against the bloody madness.
"Amid a piling body count in the government's bloody war on drugs, Sen. Leila De Lima on Thursday urged Filipinos to join what she called the country's "greatest fight" since the 1986 Edsa People Power Revolution that toppled the dictatorship of Ferdinand Marcos. ".
http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/825032/fight-ph-greatest-fight-since-people-power-revolution-de-limaClearly you have a bias as the news article is really a rich elite paper that has way to criticize the current administration and De Lima is tainted big time by the fact that while she was running the DOJ she selectively prosecuted the opposition but failed to bring any of her mates to court (IE read all the top LP people. This is now being reviewed), protected her boss (PNoy) concerning DAP (Despite the SC saying what he did was unconstitutional) and now is tainted further by all the drugs issues surrounding NBP and the proliferation of such while she was DOJ Secretary (there has to be some truth in what everyone has said).
She was dismissed as senate chair on human rights by fellow senators (unprecedented it is said) and only yesterday was scolded for trying to waste time on the same committee. Also she was scolded for bring a known killer to the senate to discus pre 2016 EJKs when it was not in her remit to do (and said killer Matabto is now being charged with many murders plus another when he was supposedly under the DOJ witness protection scheme when De Lima was in charge!
That is context Amavida your is just one eyed bola bola LOL (sorry scared bola bola).
Wicked Roger
10-13-16, 15:35
This is a problem. What to do? What to do?
Light bulb!And what's your point Amavida? Not agree? Look at Indonesia, it executed Aussie for smuggling drugs plus many other nationalities. Lots of hue and cry, ambassadors withdrawn for a few days and now Aussie and Indonesia are cuddle up again.
Certainly one way to get the over population down don't you think? LOL.
I for one have no issues with this as for me drugs are a menace but for you? Well you seem to like the status quo so what can we say? Or as Shining Wit say you don't want this as you are one of them LOL.
GoodEnough
10-13-16, 15:36
Re-reading the article linked to by Amavida, it said 60 kilometer bullet train which I took to mean length, which sounds about right. GE may have misheard, or quite plausibly been the subject of sloppy reporting. Regardless, it is a waste of time and money, as it would only affect people travelling from Clark to Subic and vice versa, as intermediate stops { where? } would negate the speed.
What really would be a shock to everybody's system would be a three pronged plan to reduce congestion in Manila.
1 Rehabilitate the PNR line southwards and provide a semi-decent service, hopefully reducing the bus and car traffic from a 'commuter belt'.
2 Rehabilitate and extend the PNR line northwards. Per Google maps, this does not even cross out of Metro Manila. This would reduce the road traffic and possibly encourage development into Bulacan province and also possibly Pampanga.
3 The total pipe dream. With the northern PNR line extended to Clark, and why not to Tarlac and the north, drive an extension from somewhere near Tutuban station into the North Docks and the International Container Terminal. How much traffic could be eliminated in Manila by using rail to intermodal hubs near Clark and somewhere in say Batangas Province?
Total fantasy I know, but I only smoke tobacco. I have no desire to join Amavida's 750,000 locked up {I assume they are not buried and that was a misprint } in the military bases.Thanks for clarifying the 60 km reference, but the film I saw had a subtitle that did say "60 kph. " Doesn't matter much, since neither a 60 kph train nor a train that runs for a mere 60 km makes much sense. I think the distance from the center of Makati to Angeles as measured by my GPS was about 75 km. Of course it doesn't matter as it's not going to be built, anymore than a subway network which has been "under study" for at least 10 years.
GE.
Wicked Roger
10-13-16, 15:39
In the "Index of Fragile States," which annually ranks 174 countries on a constellation of factors that indicate the possibilities of state failure, the Philippines was ranked 54 in the 2016 edition; falling within the "strong warning" category. It's one of the few countries that has lost serious ground on the index between 2010 and 2015. So, at least in terms of the 15 or 16 factors analyzed for the rankings, this place is close to the edge of the abyss, but not yet in danger of leaping into the chasm. Nevertheless it's securely in the top third of the most fragile countries and has been there for quite a while. On this index, the most fragile--Somalia--holds the number one rank, while the least fragile--Finland--is 179, so being in the top third isn't a positive sign. Here's the link: http://foreignpolicy.com/fragile-states-index-2016-brexit-syria-refugee-europe-anti-migrant-boko-haram/.
GE.I read this article and thanks for sharing GE. As you said this was 2010-15 and is not a pretty picture.
But will anything be done to save it? Is there any real political will and if there is will the rich elite / oligarchs allow their cozy existence to be disrupted significantly. The latter is the $64 k question.
And Amavida. How did you miss this news article or did it not suit your myopic reading viewpoint? You post so much dross but then when one that shows a reasonably sane reporting standard is published you don't FR or see (or comment) - maybe because it criticizes your best buddy and his chums? LOL.
The mass murder machine to become secret political purge. The mass murderer claims to have a list of 8000 politicians whom he will 'cleanse'.
https://209.188.21.24/articles/2016-10-13/news/rody-may-no-longer-release-narco-list/171002?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_term=newsletter&utm_content=newsletter&utm_campaign=newsletter
I read this article and thanks for sharing GE. As you said this was 2010-15 and is not a pretty picture.
But will anything be done to save it? Is there any real political will and if there is will the rich elite / oligarchs allow their cozy existence to be disrupted significantly. The latter is the $64 k question.
And Amavida. How did you miss this news article or did it not suit your myopic reading viewpoint? You post so much dross but then when one that shows a reasonably sane reporting standard is published you don't FR or see (or comment) - maybe because it criticizes your best buddy and his chums? LOL.Amavida just plows through with his incessant links to all sorts of news outlets and has yet to respond to any of my questions or yours. I don't live there, I don't have any pot smoking friends I'm worried about who do who may get swept up in the dragnet granted. Although none have by all accounts.
Amavida please pause briefly from posting links to "authoritative" Phils based news orgs and address the industrial production and distribution of Meth in the Phils Rody is attempting to snuff out which are an undeniable scourge to the country. If you can.
As I noted early in my previous posts its focus is meth. When I asked if it spread beyond that you answered yes but provided weak defenses of large cocaine busts which are understandable anywhere and a few minor celebs getting arrested for pot who are at little risk of life or limb and likely enhance thier post release celeb status.
Thanks.
Wicked Roger
10-14-16, 03:33
My PRC & ROK friends smoke like blast furnaces. They're just gonna love this.
http://www.mb.com.ph/eo-on-nationwide-smoking-ban-out-this-month/#Pbt2 pxJ1 xW5 G1 ob5. 99.Seems the people who vote don't really care what your smoking friends think? Also we are talking of tobacco not weed or other forms of meth they smoke Amavida? Are you a 'smoker'?
And before people say it is a small sample it is nonetheless indicative of what many parts of the world are doing. The harm caused by smoking is not nice (but it is your body so who is anyone to judge) but the cost to the health system of smoke related illnesses is growing.
Now a few of my monger friends here will likely not like the ban (one did not like the mini no smoke ban in Ayala!) but this is a more widespread issue and one I (as a non smoker) support.
http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/825022/inquirer-net-poll-filipinos-want-smoking-ban
But once again it is context IMHO unlike your blanket "my friends won't like this" FR to which the reply is "who cares" LOL.
Wicked Roger
10-14-16, 03:48
The mass murder machine to become secret political purge. The mass murderer claims to have a list of 8000 politicians whom he will 'cleanse'.
https://209.188.21.24/articles/2016-10-13/news/rody-may-no-longer-release-narco-list/171002?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_term=newsletter&utm_content=newsletter&utm_campaign=newsletterAnd what would you prefer Amavida? Narco politicians roaming around, pasisng laws that benefit each other to the detriment of the masses? Or narco politicians being told in advance they have been spotted and give them time to cover their tracks, kill possible informers, bury / hide the cash as they know the bank secrecy laws are loaded to the account holder not the courts?
Which? Or anything else you care to mention? Are your friends on the list? Maybe this is why you are constantly posting theses links with no context? Family members? Let us know as there has to be a reason why you keep posting negative stuff when before D30 was in power you said nothing? We can make assumptions I suppose but best hear from you as clearly you are worried and scared so maybe go back to Aussie where the right wing fascists of Turnbull et al would scare you less. Well to date limited fuss about druggies dying.
GoodEnough
10-14-16, 03:58
Amavida just plows through with his incessant links to all sorts of news outlets and has yet to respond to any of my questions or yours. I don't live there, I don't have any pot smoking friends I'm worried about who do who may get swept up in the dragnet granted. Although none have by all accounts.
Amavida please pause briefly from posting links to "authoritative" Phils based news orgs and address the industrial production and distribution of Meth in the Phils Rody is attempting to snuff out which are an undeniable scourge to the country. If you can.
As I noted early in my previous posts its focus is meth. When I asked if it spread beyond that you answered yes but provided weak defenses of large cocaine busts which are understandable anywhere and a few minor celebs getting arrested for pot who are at little risk of life or limb and likely enhance thier post release celeb status.
Thanks.Unlike the drug problems in many countries in the West (the US, most of the EU) the drug scourge here is more worrisome because so many of the (alleged) beneficiaries are deeply-rooted within centers of political and / or economic power. In this sense, the Philippines drug problem is much more severe because, as I've said before, it puts the country precariously close to becoming a narco-state, in which government officials and the security forces that support them are largely supported by the trading in illegal drugs. In Columbia and Mexico it's heroin and / or cocaine; here it's crystal meth, but the net result is the same. Duterte has long recognized this as an existential crisis for his country and I believe that is what fuels his anger and his determination to eradicate these linkages.
There's probably no 100% drug free country on earth, but there also aren't many in which those responsible for managing the country and its security are also those orchestrating and profiting hugely from the trade in illicit drugs. That's the real danger here that, in my view, Duterte is trying his very best to stamp out. If I'm correct, the roots and tendrils of the drug trade into the ranks of government have developed over a very long time and are substantial. Thus changing this pattern will not prove either easy nor will it be quick. If my assumptions are correct, I envisage a long, drawn out campaign of which we have witnessed merely the opening forays. The type of radical, substantive change for which Duterte evidently stands is never easy, often quite painful and often not implemented without bloodshed and without (tragically) collateral damage.
I wish that the context as presented above had been more completely explored and reported in the media, both international and local, as I believe Duterte's often profane (but usually accurate) denunciations of those who focus on the violation of human rights of suspected drug dealers but ignore the human rights of their victims, were precipitated by this perceived unfairness. It's been my contention that few foreigners understand the context of the Philippines, much less its history. Knowing this, one would think that responsible media organizations would help outsiders to develop at least a modicum of understanding, prior to making black and white judgments.
It's also important to recognize--as WR has accurately pointed out--that most of the major media outlets in this country are not controlled by Duterte supporters. They make no pretense of remaining neutral, and operate within the framework of the political and economic agendas of the families that control them. Thus there's very little unbiased news coverage available here through major media.
I'm not a Filipino and I've no direct knowledge if what I've said above is accurate, but I do believe it's the basis on which Duterte has built his determination to destroy the drug-government linkages. Like RK, the street violence has caused me to alter my behavior somewhat. I'm more cautious about where I go; I try to remain hyper aware of my surroundings; I'm rarely on the street, and I don't go out of the house as much as I did before.
GE.
Wicked Roger
10-14-16, 04:15
Amavida just plows through with his incessant links to all sorts of news outlets and has yet to respond to any of my questions or yours.
Amavida please pause briefly from posting links to "authoritative" Phils based news orgs and address the industrial production and distribution of Meth in the Phils Rody is attempting to snuff out which are an undeniable scourge to the country. If you can.
As I noted early in my previous posts its focus is meth. When I asked if it spread beyond that you answered yes but provided weak defenses of large cocaine busts which are understandable anywhere and a few minor celebs getting arrested for pot who are at little risk of life or limb and likely enhance thier post release celeb status.
Thanks.Good observations Pantot but Amavida cannot place his links into any context. He lives in a bubble in the country as clearly he has not seen the rise of the drug problem and if he has then he clearly supports it as he has not said anything negative about Shabu, the link the the police, the politicians (government or Barangay) who seem to be heavily implicated in the drug trade, how it is destroying families, etc. He seems to ignore this is his crusade to tell us how bad D30 is. But won't say why he is scare of the man.
Amavida clearly supports the drugs IMHO as he won't support the solution to what is a pandemic issue in this country. It is far worse than Mexico etc etc IMHO as GE said as it is becoming a tipping point where the police, army and those in power are causing drug dependency in millions to make themselves rich and don't care. Plus using the cash to bribe the judiciary to avoid any prosecution. But Amavida still tells us this is bad so he can't / won't answer Pantot as he is hiding something IMHO.
What sensible person would not want to strive for a drug free society? I know that is a Utopian aspiration but at least a place where drugs are limited in supply and the penalties so harsh you think twice before you use / push etc. But some think the opposite is better clearly on this board.
I'm not a Filipino and I've no direct knowledge if what I've said above is accurate, but I do believe it's the basis on which Duterte has built his determination to destroy the drug-government linkages. Like RK, the street violence has caused me to alter my behavior somewhat. I'm more cautious about where I go; I try to remain hyper aware of my surroundings; I'm rarely on the street, and I don't go out of the house as much as I did before. GE.GE,
I also believe what you have written above is 110% correct, since living in the Philippines, many good locals in government positions have said similar, for part of the year I live between Bacolod & Hinigaran, surround by Sugar Cane & Rice Fields the people are truly salt of the earth they work very hard and send their children to school, but they are scared to send them to the bigger cities once they have graduated from high school because of drugs and corruption. They are happy for the clean up, I have not heard anyone say its a bad thing.
Wicked Roger
10-14-16, 10:48
Surprisingly Amavida has not noted this link (so far).
http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/825190/no-proof-of-state-sponsored-drug-killings-gordon-says
Now to place into context as AV likely won't bother (or won't bother showing this as it is good news for the new administration given recent attempts to portray it differently).
Gordon is a mate of D30, he is not happy with De Lima who is acting childish and squealing IMHO. See earlier FR. NHe replaced her as chair when she was kicked off (unprecedented with senators voting for it. The 4 LP senators of course voted against it of course).
Gordon did admonish the president (saying shut up talking) also but said there is no proof of the president being involved or really was behind the deaths (and this is only 3000 gents, Mexico is roughly 120,000 and counting and did the UN etc do anything about that. No).
But as this is a rich elite oligarch news paper IMHO that tens to be anti D30 (or tries to say nice stuff with a twisted bent) the comments section is hilarious and I think AV you contribute there as some are well written using English / Aussie slang (yes?) - but many are saying Gordon is wrong but can't seem to understand the burden of proof issue. This shows the right wing leaning of the paper and many of its readers IMHO. Some comments are totally stupid and some think De Lima is a goodess who can do no wrong depsite the drugs issues / links from the other Senate inquiry.
So AV what is your take on this?
Wicked Roger
10-14-16, 11:02
Unlike the drug problems in many countries in the West (the US, most of the EU) the drug scourge here is more worrisome because so many of the (alleged) beneficiaries are deeply-rooted within centers of political and / or economic power. In this sense, the Philippines drug problem is much more severe because, as I've said before, it puts the country precariously close to becoming a narco-state, in which government officials and the security forces that support them are largely supported by the trading in illegal drugs. In Columbia and Mexico it's heroin and / or cocaine; here it's crystal meth, but the net result is the same. Duterte has long recognized this as an existential crisis for his country and I believe that is what fuels his anger and his determination to eradicate these linkages.
There's probably no 100% drug free country on earth, but there also aren't many in which those responsible for managing the country and its security are also those orchestrating and profiting hugely from the trade in illicit drugs. That's the real danger here that, in my view, Duterte is trying his very best to stamp out. If I'm correct, the roots and tendrils of the drug trade into the ranks of government have developed over a very long time and are substantial..Good summary GE and one many here on the board fail to understand.
We are visitors and our view counts for little IMHO. So if you don't like what is going on and are scared etc then leave. It is a simple thing to do. But to stay and rubbish the place you have lived in is daft regardless of what country you live in. We all don't like things about wherever we are but the constant griping and rubbish that some post suggests they should get of town but to where as many have problems. The key is the problems are not as entrenched as they are in the Philippines nor have they been left untouched and allowed to flourish by those who are supposed to be protecting citizens from the problem.
Also I am always aware of wherever I am and I have been to and lived in far worse and more dangerous places than the Philippines so the current state of affairs does not have me worried as I am always careful whether it be Manila, Cebu, London, Paris, Sydney or Karachi. But f you and RK have concerns then I do sit up and listen. , If AV has worries no as he clearly has an agenda and won't reply to any questions and seems determined to say "all is bad don't come here".
We can't vote but others did and lots did for someone who said "vote for me and it will be bloody" So why all the uproar as he keeps a mandate. Many politicians in the West have said stuff and lied to the electorate many times (even PNoy did repeatedly for 6 years). So what is so surprising when someone keeps his word (maybe that is the surprise LOL).
You guys mock popular entertainers speaking out about the mass murder, you mock a Philippine Senator speaking out against the mass murder, so here is something from the military.
Ryan Rockwell is a captain in the USA Army. He is currently a graduate student at Georgetown University's McCourt School of Public Policy and has served on four deployments to the Middle East, South Asia, and Southeast Asia (two to the Philippines).
http://warontherocks.com/2016/10/if-duterte-kicks-out-u-s-special-operators-a-hard-rains-gonna-fall/
The streets are safer are they?
http://exposeaway.com/manila-night-prowl-dead-dad-no-motive/
I'd love to to see this creep Duterte tried & sentenced for mass murder frankly.
"The International Criminal Court's chief prosecutor said she is "deeply concerned" about reports of extrajudicial killings of suspected drug dealers and users in the Philippines.
The Philippines is a member state of the International Criminal Court, the world's first global court prosecuting war crimes and crimes against humanity, so crimes committed there could be prosecuted at the Hague-based institution. ".
http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/icc-prosecutor-warns-philippine-authorities-killings-42783275
Wicked Roger
10-14-16, 14:39
I'd love to to see this creep Duterte tried & sentenced for mass murder frankly.
"The International Criminal Court's chief prosecutor said she is "deeply concerned" about reports of extrajudicial killings of suspected drug dealers and users in the Philippines.
The Philippines is a member state of the International Criminal Court, the world's first global court prosecuting war crimes and crimes against humanity, so crimes committed there could be prosecuted at the Hague-based institution. ".
http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/icc-prosecutor-warns-philippine-authorities-killings-42783275We know that this is your views but as the ICC can't prosecute on the 120 k deaths in Mexico, was pretty hopeless for the Hutu / Tutsi massacres, and took years to bring anyone in the former Yugoslavia to justice don't hold your breath.
In fact there is no chance as I read this article and the lady is talking rubbish. Has no clue about the country and hears from De Lima who IMHO is discredited etc. See recent news that her number was found in a drug lord's diary?
So this is non news especically as you have not read my link saying he did not do it albeit this coming from a known ally, not did you post this link either (one eyed reading glasses methinks).
Now see my other FR which points to what GE was saying (did you read that? As you never comment on a more reasoned view).
Also I will ask ad naseum. What have you got to be scared of? Why do you live in Dipolog / AC if you are this frightened of this so called EJKs for drugs unless you have something to hide. If you hate the place why not go? You clearly feel unhappy and uncomforatble but you persist in providing negative stuff on the new president when you did nothing / posted nothing negative for 6 years under the totally inept previous adminsitration. Make me wonder as you never address issues and the last 6 years there were plenty. Did you not see? As you live in the country for a long time?
Wicked Roger
10-14-16, 14:44
To counter Amavida's rabid hate inspired news stories showing us he is frightened as hell here are 2 links which I found very readable.
Firstly the pollsters explain what GE had noted earlier about how the west does not understand the Philippines culture at the moment. Yes it talks about drugs and death but concludes that this is the Philippines and so far people like it. Hard luck Amavida.
The second is a letter in the Inquirer which I found amusing from a non D30 supporter (definitely not written by Amavida).
The ABS link I found very interesting as is something some posters here have failed to grasp at all. We look at matters through Western culture eyes not Pinoy. Would have thought some people who have lived in outlying areas would have realised that by now.
http://news.abs-cbn.com/focus/10/13/16/why-despite-criticisms-duterte-scored-high-in-trust-approval-ratings
http://opinion.inquirer.net/98169/digong-destined-to-better-our-nation
Naked Gunz
10-14-16, 16:16
The streets are safer are they?So much for my plans to retire there.
The streets are safer are they?
http://exposeaway.com/manila-night-prowl-dead-dad-no-motive/This has no contextual connection to the current topic at hand.
This could have happened at any time in the past 70+ years under any ruler and has countless times.
Amavida obviously you cannot digest and respond to long paragraphs describing the nuances of the current drug war in the Philippines by thoughtful posters.
Is the production distribution and sale of this substance to its populace by otherwise apparently upstanding economic, political and military monied elites of the philippines an overall good thing or a bad thing or sort of benign?
Do you know that Shabu is actually crystal meth and do you know the difference between methamphetamine and marijuana and why most sane humans know that Meth is a societal menace with no redeeming recreational value in a country like the Philippines?
GoodEnough
10-15-16, 00:34
This has no contextual connection to the current topic at hand.
This could have happened at any time in the past 70+ years under any ruler and has countless times.
Amavida obviously you cannot digest and respond to long paragraphs describing the nuances of the current drug war in the Philippines by thoughtful posters.
Is the production distribution and sale of this substance to its populace by otherwise apparently upstanding economic, political and military monied elites of the philippines an overall good thing or a bad thing or sort of benign?
Do you know that Shabu is actually crystal meth and do you know the difference between methamphetamine and marijuana and why most sane humans know that Meth is a societal menace with no redeeming recreational value in a country like the Philippines?I think that those of us who are interested in this topic have said about all there is that can be said for the moment, so this will likely be my last post on the topic for a while.
Those of us who appear to have taken the subject seriously, including myself, can get so embroiled in the topic that we sometimes forget the simple truth that we are all guests in this country. We made the choice to come here, whether to live or to visit, and we've got absolutely no power to affect the direction of this country. Our only choice is starkly simple: to leave or to stay. Most of us, I assume, have passports that are widely accepted almost everywhere, and thus I suppose we're fortunate to have a choice that can be acted on quickly.
For those whose most immediate concern is personal safety, The choice is likely easy to make; go somewhere safer. For those who are more concerned with moral issues pertaining to the suspension of human (and civil) rights, I suppose the choice is more difficult, so it's particularly important to remember that none of us can influence policies enacted here. Since my concerns fall more squarely within the latter category, I've been thinking about where else I might go that would be more congruent with my personal value system and beliefs, so I'll start searching over the next 6-12 months to determine if I'd be happier anywhere else. I've already traveled extensively to most parts of the world and therefore recognize that there's no place on earth without issues, so the question for me will be whether I can find a place where the issues are easier (and more palatable) to deal with.
Our collective and individual analyses notwithstanding, I guess each of us addressing this topic has some difficult decisions to make over the next several months. Fortunately for most of us, the one thing we can control is our individual decision about whether to leave or to remain.
GE.
Surprisingly Amavida has not noted this link (so far).
http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/825190/no-proof-of-state-sponsored-drug-killings-gordon-says
So AV what is your take on this?What is there to say? You know who the Gordon's are as well as I do. You answered your own post. Two sides of politics fighting it out over a mass murderer President. I hope Duterte goes peacefully but my concern is this lunatic will not.
You condone mass murder (according to your long diatribes), I don't.
Nothing further we could discuss.
This has no contextual connection to the current topic at hand.
I respectfully disagree.
You say you don't live here and ask questions about the situation here but then come back with long diatribes attempting to excuse the wave of mass murder unleashed by Rodrigo Duterte. Foreigners with 'cannot be told' disease are road kill here.
So much for my plans to retire there.The best advice I can offer is delay six to twelve months and review then NG. Take note that with the Thai king dead there is a strong possibility of violent political struggle exploding in that country. It could drag on for years. That's another country to scratch off the list (for the moment).
Posted without prejudice. For informational purposes.
Interactive heat map illustrating the magnitude of extra judicial killings per province / city: the redder the color of a province / city in the map, the higher the number of drug-related deaths reported in that area.
http://news.abs-cbn.com/specials/map-charts-the-death-toll-of-the-war-on-drugs
I respectfully disagree.
You say you don't live here and ask questions about the situation here but then come back with long diatribes attempting to excuse the wave of mass murder unleashed by Rodrigo Duterte. Foreigners with 'cannot be told' disease are road kill here.I don't 'live' there but I have spent an average of 45 days per year there for the past dozen years. I have traveled and continue travel to dozens of cities over the years. I don't go for business. Its a pure adventure of sex. This is the international sex guide as we all know. Not the foriegn business guy stuck in the Phils and hating it forum.
I ask a question which was somewhat of a rhetorical device which I suspected the answer to, sort of like a Columbo playing dumb and you took the bait.
I asked if others rather than Meth trade people were targeted, you responded some large coke seizures were made and some minor celebs were arrested, not executed, for minor pot violations. Did google tell you any of such celebs were put to death or draconian prison sentences? I ask because I don't spend much time researching this online but many here do. It kind of made my point that its a Meth targeted war.
Do you think Meth is an innocuous substance?
Why does Duterete still have support of the vast majority of the masses of the Phils if not the elite editorial writers?
I doubt you live in an affective area if you even live there at all.
If you lived there you why is all your evidence google link?
I would not recommend the Duterte 'solution' to other countries, but Meth production and distribution by establishment members of the communities to the masses could not be solved by any lawful application of western style justice. If you lived there you would know this to be self evident.
Spend more time with the common people of the phils and you will learn these simple sad but true facts.
I think that those of us who are interested in this topic have said about all there is that can be said for the moment, so this will likely be my last post on the topic for a while.
Those of us who appear to have taken the subject seriously, including myself, can get so embroiled in the topic that we sometimes forget the simple truth that we are all guests in this country. We made the choice to come here, whether to live or to visit, and we've got absolutely no power to affect the direction of this country. Our only choice is starkly simple: to leave or to stay.
<SNIP>
I've already traveled extensively to most parts of the world and therefore recognize that there's no place on earth without issues, so the question for me will be whether I can find a place where the issues are easier (and more palatable) to deal with.
I have been saying for a long time that as a resident of the Philippines I just adapt to the daily ebb and flow and refuse to get worked up over things we cannot control.
I agree with GE; most of what needs to be said has been said already and I will no longer post on this topic for a while.
To GE: My son is currently in the Big Apple for 4 weeks, and I think you could do far worse than retreat home. Then again, you better wait until the US elections are completed.
Wicked Roger
10-15-16, 05:19
What is there to say? You know who the Gordon's are as well as I do. You answered your own post. Two sides of politics fighting it out over a mass murderer President. I hope Duterte goes peacefully but my concern is this lunatic will not.
You condone mass murder (according to your long diatribes), I don't.
Nothing further we could discuss.How does my FR condone mass maurder. So it was not mass murder before D30 took over? It is not mass murder, that is what happened in Africa with the Hutus etc, or in Yugoslavia with the dreadful war, or in WW2 with the Nazis. These are druggies and drug pushers who bring misery to society. Or are you one of them and scared.
Get you context for mass murder correct. Mexico is 120 k+ people dead, here is 3000, the Nazis killed millions, same large numbers on the former Yugoslavia. That is mass murder.
And clearly you support the drugs and the drug lords by your post as you have not have made any negative comments about shabu or the link to the police / politicians etc. So clearly you are one of them or part of the group that enjoys seeing people's lives destroyed by drugs. As I said I have seen this first hand and it is not nice.
Dead drug users are OK for me and anyone dealing in them. So who cares, they are dead and are not a burden on society. They died before D30 they will die after he steps down. Random killings happen every day in the country so what? They happen every day in the USA but I don't see you complaining about HR issues on the USA board.
I don't see you linking PNoy admin stories about the huge rise in drugs (why? Or the senseless murders (why?) but now it is someone who stated clearly what he would do then you object.
You must have a vested interest Amavida in wanting this to stop? As you have never come out and said drugs are ruining lives, creating poverty and dependence, of commented on how the local Barangay chief and police etc are involved (as GE and I have said), You criticize someone trying to clean up a country that is clearly in a bad way and you have no understanding of what the local people want.
So I ask again (you never reply), why are you pro drugs, pro PNoy, anti D30 and don't want to see the county where you live clean of the drugs pandemic? As you hate it here leave, you can clearly you have the mean unless you make way more cash in this country as is why you are not keen on D30 as he might stop your business?
GoodEnough
10-15-16, 05:36
To GE: My son is currently in the Big Apple for 4 weeks, and I think you could do far worse than retreat home. Then again, you better wait until the US elections are completed.One of the world's greatest cities, and incidentally the home of my son and grandchildren, so I take your point. However, though I love the city, I've got no desire to go back there to live. Sporadic visits are fine with me. Like many of us who have been out for a long time, I believe Thomas Wolff was correct and you really can't go home again, not for good anyway.
Besides RK, as you know, I do have some other people to consider here.
GE.
Wicked Roger
10-15-16, 05:41
I have been saying for a long time that as a resident of the Philippines I just adapt to the daily ebb and flow and refuse to get worked up over things we cannot control..Is what many have said and what I do wherever I am in the world. Remember we can't vote, we are visitors always and enjoy what they is to offer, make the most of it.
This is the international sex guide as we all know. Not the foriegn business guy stuck in the Phils and hating it forum.
Do you think Meth is an innocuous substance?
Why does Duterete still have support of the vast majority of the masses of the Phils if not the elite editorial writers?
I doubt you live in an affective area if you even live there at all.
I you lived there you why is all your evidence google link?
I would not recommend the Duterte 'solution' to other countries, but Meth production and distribution by establishment members of the communities to the masses could not be solved by any lawful application of western style justice. If you lived there you would know this to be self evident.
Spend more time with the common people of the phils and you will learn these simple sad but true facts.Nicely said Pantot, Speak to the locals not only the middle class with a bolt hole maybe in the USA or Australia (many pinays now in Aussie).
Amavida has said nothing about how bad drugs aka shabu is. His non comments suggest he supports drug use and is afraid of being caught up in some shooting associated with drugs LOL. Clearly he thinks shabu is innocuous.
Everywhere is effected by drugs so he would live and be aware but likely not care. Is he happy that they are dependent?
Drive around the Ayala center in Cebu (say 1 km radius) and you see people high on drugs etc. Go deeper into the shanty town areas that I drive through sometimes (short cut to where I go) and plenty there. I don't stop my car, windows up (even my pinay advises this and she is in the car!) and I am aware of what I am doing.
Chocha Monger
10-15-16, 10:51
Hey Choca what do you base this claim on? The girls sit on bar stools or shuffle on stages freezing their butts off for long hours with only punter drinks or snacks to keep them going. Their (arguable) looks are all they have, drug abusers quickly lose their looks devolving that classic junkie look and don't last long. Just interested to know.I am basing this claim on what bar girls have told me. Some get into the business of selling pussy and asshole to feed the habit. Others get into the habit because it helps them to overcome any inhibitions to becoming a 3-holes and serving up anal to mongers who belt out a royal ass pounding. Regardless of what you believe, some of the new girls need something more than watered down lady drinks with negligible alcohol content and salty snacks to make sucking an octogenarian's cock to completion with swallowing more palatable.
I don't know what time frame you have in mind when you say that drug abusers quickly lose their looks but the half-life of the average bar girl is not very long. Most do not last long in the profession and disappear quite quickly. Some more on to better things but other move on to worse things or enter the world of freelancing. You should speak to some of the girls at LA Cafe and listen to the stories behind their blackened or, more often, missing teeth.
I don't know what time frame you have in mind when you say that drug abusers quickly lose their looks but the half-life of the average bar girl is not very long. Most do not last long in the profession and disappear quite quickly. Some more on to better things but other move on to worse things or enter the world of freelancing. You should speak to some of the girls at LA Cafe and listen to the stories behind their blackened or, more often, missing teeth.I defer to your vastly superior knowledge of bar girls Choca.
For those whose most immediate concern is personal safety, The choice is likely easy to make; go somewhere safer. For those who are more concerned with moral issues pertaining to the suspension of human (and civil) rights, I suppose the choice is more difficult, so it's particularly important to remember that none of us can influence policies enacted here. Since my concerns fall more squarely within the latter category, I've been thinking about where else I might go that would be more congruent with my personal value system and beliefs, so I'll start searching over the next 6-12 months to determine if I'd be happier anywhere else. I've already traveled extensively to most parts of the world and therefore recognize that there's no place on earth without issues, so the question for me will be whether I can find a place where the issues are easier (and more palatable) to deal with.
Our collective and individual analyses notwithstanding, I guess each of us addressing this topic has some difficult decisions to make over the next several months. Fortunately for most of us, the one thing we can control is our individual decision about whether to leave or to remain.
GE.I have to agree GE & RK. Most expats have property+/-people here. The decision to liquidate property and move people cannot be taken lightly. In view of the deteriorating political and economic situation here it is certainly prudent to evaluate & re-evaluate short / medium / long term plans. A plan B and exit strategy for worst case scenario is always wise whilst we observe developments and adjust / refine on day to day intel. Speaking for myself, this is a pain in the neck I don't need at my stage in life. I couldn't stomach going home to my birth country, it has changed so much, I barely recognize it and detest being in it for even short periods. Give me a nice quiet little banana republic any day. Fingers crossed we are relieved of these decisions, sooner rather than later.
GoodEnough
10-16-16, 12:47
I have to agree GE & RK. Most expats have property+/-people here. The decision to liquidate property and move people cannot be taken lightly. In view of the deteriorating political and economic situation here it is certainly prudent to evaluate & re-evaluate short / medium / long term plans. A plan B and exit strategy for worst case scenario is always wise whilst we observe developments and adjust / refine on day to day intel. Speaking for myself, this is a pain in the kneck I don't need at my stage in life. I couldn't stomach going home to my birth country, it has changed so much, I barely recognise it and detest being in it for even short periods. Give me a nice quiet little banana republic any day. Fingers crossed we are relieved of these decisions, sooner rather than later.I know I said I wouldn't post on this subject again for a while, but I just watched the 20+ minute Al Jazeera interview with the President and thought it might interest others, as the interviewers asked the right questions and Duterte didn't back away from answering them. http://www.newsph.info/2016/10/exclusive-interview-president-rodrigo-duterte-war-on-drugs-aljazeera.html?m=1.
GE.
I know I said I wouldn't post on this subject again for a while, but I just watched the 20+ minute Al Jazeera interview with the President and thought it might interest others, as the interviewers asked the right questions and Duterte didn't back away from answering them. http://www.newsph.info/2016/10/exclusive-interview-president-rodrigo-duterte-war-on-drugs-aljazeera.html?m=1.
GE.Thanks for sharing the link GE. This interview was widely quoted from so it is interesting to watch it in full. Every thinking person who has a stake in the issues would do well to see this video.
Cheers.
With her back up against a wall, De Lima is pulling out all stops.
"MANILA, Philippines – Embattled Sen. Leila de Lima believes a revolutionary government under President Duterte is not far off – even more likely than the declaration of martial law. ".
http://www.philstar.com/headlines/2016/10/16/1634074/de-lima-revolutionary-government-likely-under-duterte
Dark Knight1
10-16-16, 15:42
As to the recent arrests of foreign nationals for drug distribution, I don't believe this is the first time this has happened. If, as it appears, these guys were actually selling illegal drugs, then what's the issue? Drug dealers, regardless of nationality, who violate the laws of a sovereign country should face the consequences of their actions. Note that these guys weren't shot on the street, killed by either police or vigilantes or treated with violence. They were evidently caught in a police sting operation of the sort repeated in the US, Europe and elsewhere every day. I see no cause for alarm here for those of us who don't go near illegal substances.
GE.
I've often shared WR's point of view that both local and international media have not bothered to learn anything of the context within which this drug war is being conducted. This story however doesn't need any context, and it's deeply disturbing as it could have happened to anyone: http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/2016/10/10/they-put-gun-my-head-aussie-man.
GE.Good enough,
First you totally dismissed my notion that some of the foreigners being caught up in this Duturte drug dragnet may not be guilty then when new information was forth coming you failed to acknowledge that I was the first one who mentioned the subject (at least the other resident asshole; Wicked Roger quoted me) As long as you have been living in the Philippines you should know Filipinos have an uncanny habit of changing the truth to fit the narrative they want to tell.
With that being said there will be more "innocent mongers" (those who come for the pussy not for drugs) who will be reported as dealers either by fellow mongers or by the jilted, racist or jealous locals.
The country has became a more dangerous place for the pussy seeker.
Wicked Roger
10-16-16, 15:45
With her back up against a wall, De Lima is pulling out all stops.
"MANILA, Philippines Embattled Sen. Leila de Lima believes a revolutionary government under President Duterte is not far off even more likely than the declaration of martial law. ".
http://www.philstar.com/headlines/2016/10/16/1634074/de-lima-revolutionary-government-likely-under-duterteShe creating media to try and deflect from the numerous cases filed against as an alleged drug queen and her alleged compliance in the Bilibid drug trade plus. She is saying anything she can IMHO and making lots of noise but many of the netiziens find her laughable and a spent force. If this was a reasonable democracy she (and others) would have resigned by now but then when did a disgraced politician in the Philippines have any sense of decency LOL.
She has limited stops to pull as she has never filed a case against D30 since 2009 when she claimed she had strong evidence etc. He challenged her many times to file she never has so she is full of bola bola IMHO and is hiding something like someone else LOL.
Wicked Roger
10-16-16, 20:47
Early days but maybe there is some light on this matter that a few including myself have noted. The abysmal infrastructure that was left to further erode (mostly) under the previous administration maybe getting an upgrade. Some of the comments are hilarious as if they don't want China to provide the loan (and some don't want the USA either) then who will?
Others are more realistic and give a wish list.
http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/826011/admin-to-spend-p8-trillion-for-infrastructure
This maybe be PR etc but if it does happen this will help. Is it enough who knows but 8 trillion is better than bugger all.
All these coke busts must be starting to hurt. Amazing that this chick got through other countries, in this case Dubai. I haven't traveled that part of the world in years so can't speculate with accuracy about their airport efficiency. Wonder how much other smack is trans-shipping through there? Mind boggling that folks think they bring this stuff in through NAIA in the present circumstances.
https://209.188.21.24/articles/2016-10-16/news/brazilian-model-caught-with-p32-m-cocaine/171346?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_term=newsletter&utm_content=newsletter&utm_campaign=newsletter
She has limited stops to pull as she has never filed a case against D30 since 2009 when she claimed she had strong evidence etc. He challenged her many times to file she never has so she is full of bola bola IMHO and is hiding something That's one interpretation. The alternative interpretation is that anyone who dares challenge tatay 'terte will be buried. Philippine politics is conducted in a fetid atmosphere against a background of a corrupt judiciary so who knows what is the truth? All the bola bola about her personal life was completely irrelevant but hey, it derailed the senate inquiry and that's all that matters to those who condone state sanctioned murder.
With that being said there will be more "innocent mongers" (those who come for the pussy not for drugs) who will be reported as dealers either by fellow mongers or by the jilted, racist or jealous locals.
The country has became a more dangerous place for the pussy seeker.DK, no amount of flowery talk on this board can disguise the plain unvarnished truth that Rodrigo Duterte has suspended the rule of law and sanctioned murder. Please note that he has never issued an official executive order and so cannot be impeached (technically).
In interviews he admits the country cannot afford to suddenly set up and finance ongoing treatment centres for the estimated 4 million people with substance abuse problems. He reiterates that murder is a legitimate means to deal with 'the problem'. You connect the dots.
Substance abuse is strongly correlated with poverty. These folks did not suddenly appear the day Duterte gained power. This 'crisis' has been engineered and exploited by Duterte for his own political ends. Despite his foul mouth he is not a stupid person, this is all going somewhere and the opposition claims he is planning to establish a 'revolutionary government' amounting to dictatorship may prove true. In that eventuality punters & expats would not want to be here that's for damn sure.
The 'I'm too rich to care' types will continue to pour cold water on these speculations but I continue to remind folks to exercise more caution than usual. The streets are more dangerous and the country as a whole is a more dangerous destination now.
GoodEnough
10-17-16, 00:40
Thanks for sharing the link GE. This interview was widely quoted from so it is interesting to watch it in full. Every thinking person who has a stake in the issues would do well to see this video.
Cheers.It was an interesting, and evidently candid interview, and I'm happy to have shared it. The second half should prove equally interesting.
Let's assume for the moment (with no evidence to the contrary) that Duterte's estimate of 3-4 million addicts is correct. That's approximately 3-4 percent of the entire population. Let's further assume that most of these do not come from rich families, and thus a substantial portion must engage in crime to feed their addiction. Given, as Duterte seems to imply, the lack of a functional justice system, and the absence of a network of treatment centers, what viable alternatives exist for addressing the problem? I confess that I have no idea.
GE.
GoodEnough
10-17-16, 00:50
Early days but maybe there is some light on this matter that a few including myself have noted. The abysmal infrastructure that was left to further erode (mostly) under the previous administration maybe getting an upgrade. Some of the comments are hilarious as if they don't want China to provide the loan (and some don't want the USA either) then who will?
Others are more realistic and give a wish list.
http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/826011/admin-to-spend-p8-trillion-for-infrastructure
This maybe be PR etc but if it does happen this will help. Is it enough who knows but 8 trillion is better than bugger all.Thanks WR, I hadn't seen that article, and it's at the very least encouraging. I think it's likely that the massive infrastructure deficit here can be rectified only through a combination of aggressive government borrowing and private sector participation. We are all familiar with the historical problems associated with government-led infrastructure projects, with a huge percentage of the "dedicated" funds siphoned into policians' pockets. Hopefully, this administration could dramatically curtail that historical reality that has resulted in pitifully substandard construction. I also agree that Philippines participation in the AIIB makes total sense in that the government will need a source of huge, affordable capital not readily available from bilateral donors. Obviously such participation will not be popular with the US Department of State that worries about increasing Chinese influence, but that's not a concern shared by this country, and why should it be?
GE.
GoodEnough
10-17-16, 01:04
Good enough,
First you totally dismissed my notion that some of the foreigners being caught up in this Duturte drug dragnet may not be guilty then when new information was forth coming you failed to acknowledge that I was the first one who mentioned the subject (at least the other resident asshole; Wicked Roger quoted me) As long as you have been living in the Philippines you should know Filipinos have an uncanny habit of changing the truth to fit the narrative they want to tell.
With that being said there will be more "innocent mongers" (those who come for the pussy not for drugs) who will be reported as dealers either by fellow mongers or by the jilted, racist or jealous locals.
The country has became a more dangerous place for the pussy seeker.Thanks for the label "resident asshole. " Maybe I'll have a couple of tee shirts printed with the title emblazoned across the front. As to my failure to acknowledge you, I have no idea what you're talking about, as I tend to forget much of the content read here as soon as I turn off the computer and I don't remember any startling insights that you think you may have provided.
As I recall the unfortunate incident of the wrongly-accused Australian, the arrest was made prior to Duterte's ascension to the presidency, so I'm not sure what relevance it has to the current situation. If your point is that there has always been a danger of foreigners being set up, wrongly accused, mistakenly arrested on the basis of accusations leveled by jealous locals I agree. 'Twas ever thus, and it might continue, so if it worries you then stay away and avoid all risk.
Again, the only increased risk for foreigners I perceive is one of being accidentally caught in the crossfire emanating from street-level violence to the extent that the latter is increasing. Since you don't live here, and obviously have other venues available to you, then choose an alternative to the Philippines and again avoid the risk.
As a confirmed "resident asshole" I have no special insights into likely events in the future. As I've said before, I'm a bit more cautious now when I travel outside Davao but I don't live in fear and have no immediate plans to leave. As an American I'm far more afraid of the consequences of a Trump candidacy than I am about any circumstances here.
GE.
She creating media to try and deflect from the numerous cases filed against as an alleged drug queen and her alleged compliance in the Bilibid drug trade plus. She is saying anything she can IMHO and making lots of noise but many of the netiziens find her laughable and a spent force. If this was a reasonable democracy she (and others) would have resigned by now but then when did a disgraced politician in the Philippines have any sense of decency LOL.
She has limited stops to pull as she has never filed a case against D30 since 2009 when she claimed she had strong evidence etc. He challenged her many times to file she never has so she is full of bola bola IMHO and is hiding something like someone else LOL.I guess the Prez has decided De Lima is on an island with no real power to protect her and she knows it as well. I doubt this will end well for her. De Lima is just a typical dirty pinoy pol and that Bilibid prison situation is typical of how things operate. She is a sacrifical lamb, most of the senate likely has similar schemes.
Meth is a dirty dirty nasty trade. None of the real oligarchs got rich in the drug trade they make plenty of real money for decades in the monopolies aided by the politicians they sponsor but they have turned a blind eye to their pathetic minions in politics and the military who have seen it as an easy way to make make quick money on the side, on the blood and souls of the poor. They are quietly happy to see it addressed, as Shabu has no socially positive value at any level and no defenders.
The prez is very crafty and confident in his endeavor and the masses are behind him. No truly wealthy power figure will ever be snared up in this mess.
The reason you haven't seen any groundswell of protests in the affected neighborhoods is that the families of the shabu underground suffer the first and the most. In the west we would kick out and quickly disown family members who dragged us down, but in the phils they suffer in silence in the crab basket from which they cannot escape. I am sure there are many a mom weeping at a funeral one moment and quietly relieved once she gets home that the rest of her family is now just a little safer. They have a resiliency.
The wanton street motorcycle snatch by brazen gun wielding thugs is reportedly down based on news reports and what the girls tell me. Only time will tell if its real or illusory. Most girls I have know over the years have told stories of anything valuable getting snatched randomly in the streets. Sometimes the real story is the niece broke it or they pawned it but some must be true. We shall see if this is truly reduced. I don't place much credence or spend much time reading Phils based 'news' reports or stats as they all have an agenda. Same goes for politicians proclamations of what they will do, they have no money to do anything, its usually blowing smoke. Grand plans with no basis in any reality due to lack of resources is a Pinoy trait. Writ large in the leaders or small when the girls vainly try to get me to bankroll it heheh.
Its easier for me to be cavalier because I don't live there I only visit and never spend more than a few days in any one spot. I have learned I never want to be anywhere there that I couldn't vanish within an hours notice and leave nothing of value behind. I feel for those who are stuck. I learned the hard way before over there way before Duterte ever came to power. Its a place where we have no investment we could ever hope to protect, before, during or after the present regime.
GoodEnough
10-17-16, 02:08
For those who may be interested and haven't yet seen Part 2 of the Al Jazeera interview with President Duterte, here it is: https://m.youtube.com/watch?ebc=ANyPxKrNc9pyfCGgtPeSginwfvyRKWihp3nDBeHZi31JLfvfhYwhRmbp32u6q4fWd4P6cCBvm89BHxtSKQK2S8QXuwbTgNDYyw&v=1YnlX4CkPDY.
GE.
For those who may be interested and haven't yet seen Part 2 of the Al Jazeera interview with President Duterte, here it is: https://m.youtube.com/watch?ebc=ANyPxKrNc9pyfCGgtPeSginwfvyRKWihp3nDBeHZi31JLfvfhYwhRmbp32u6q4fWd4P6cCBvm89BHxtSKQK2S8QXuwbTgNDYyw&v=1YnlX4CkPDY.
GE.Much obliged GE.
Food for thought.
Advances the argument that this policy direction is pointless and counter productive.
The opposing argument is we should embrace the 6th century and go full slaughter.
http://theantimedia.org/us-war-terror-5-trillion/
Let's assume for the moment (with no evidence to the contrary) that Duterte's estimate of 3-4 million addicts is correct. That's approximately 3-4 percent of the entire population. Let's further assume that most of these do not come from rich families, and thus a substantial portion must engage in crime to feed their addiction. Given, as Duterte seems to imply, the lack of a functional justice system, and the absence of a network of treatment centers, what viable alternatives exist for addressing the problem? I confess that I have no idea.
GE.Following tatay turte's logic for a moment, should we then commence mass execution of all mentally ill folks? Should we then commence mass execution of all elderly and infirm? Should we then commence mass execution of all infants and children because they are an economic burden? Ethnicity? Skin color? Political or religious beliefs?
Early days but maybe there is some light on this matter that a few including myself have noted. The abysmal infrastructure that was left to further erode (mostly) under the previous administration maybe getting an upgrade. Some of the comments are hilarious as if they don't want China to provide the loan (and some don't want the USA either) then who will?
Others are more realistic and give a wish list.
http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/826011/admin-to-spend-p8-trillion-for-infrastructure
This maybe be PR etc but if it does happen this will help. Is it enough who knows but 8 trillion is better than bugger all.I confess I am hungry for some good news, a glimmer of hope this administration will take action to lift this beautiful country out of the cesspit it wallows in. Thanks for the link WR, much obliged.
GoodEnough
10-17-16, 09:25
Food for thought.
Advances the argument that this policy direction is pointless and counter productive.
The opposing argument is we should embrace the 6th century and go full slaughter.
http://theantimedia.org/us-war-terror-5-trillion/I don't think I'll read this as it will doubtless confirm what most of us already know: that "wars" on drugs are futile, and that given the enormity of potential profits and an endless supply of potential user-victims, illegal drugs will continue as a plague on societies throughout the world. As the US has proven and continues to prove, it's an unwinnable war. However, Duterte might be successful in severing, or at least severely pruning the ties between drug trafficking and manufacture and the political and security apparatus of this country. He might then be able to force traffickers to proceed without a security shield, and if he could accomplish this, it would be a significant victory; not in the war perhaps but against the stain of drug-related corruption and the weakening of the power of the politicians and other high ranking civil servants who benefit from it.
That's it. I'm done for real this time on this subject.
GE.
I don't think I'll read this as it will doubtless confirm what most of us already know: that "wars" on drugs are futile,
This depends largely on how the war is fought, doesn't it? It is estimated that before 1950, as many as 20 million Chinese were drug addicts. Chairman Mao sorted that in due order. When one wants to win a war the worst thing one may do is have tight rules of engagement. We who live in developed countries with decent protection for human rights and a respect for the rule of law would find Mao's tactics intolerable if our own governments tried to implement them. The futility of prohibition is because we cherish certain rights and our rules of engagement by and large comply with these social and legal expectations.
Wicked Roger
10-17-16, 14:57
Food for thought.
Advances the argument that this policy direction is pointless and counter productive.
The opposing argument is we should embrace the 6th century and go full slaughter.
http://theantimedia.org/us-war-terror-5-trillion/We can all blame Georgie Porgie (aka Bush) that and his right wing loonies.
Wicked Roger
10-17-16, 15:12
Thanks for the label "resident asshole. " Maybe I'll have a couple of tee shirts printed with the title emblazoned across the front. As an American I'm far more afraid of the consequences of a Trump candidacy than I am about any circumstances here.
GE.Please make mine XXXXL I like some room GE to breath as am not into the muscle style tight t-shirts LOL.
DK. GE is right as this happens all the time. Foreigner in Cebu (in McDo SRP) killed by accident, Norwegian and lady arrested for child [CodeWord123] (http://isgprohibitedwords.info?CodeWord=CodeWord123) until CCTV proved otherwise, a Brit accused same thing with another pinay until DNA showed nothing. We could on ad nasuem on this subject as been happening for years so why fuss now? Yes a few a re innocent and hopefully they get (US guy 5 years before someone realized the pinay was a lying SOB is another example) but if you can't see how bad drugs are in this country as has been said a lot of times you miss the fundamental point of what many say IMHO.
If you go sight seeing around Tondo, Colon, Divisoria et al at night you could be is strife (as you would wandering around parts of NYC, Washington, Kabul etc). This guy was lucky and is a timely reminder about the positives of CCTV and remembering to get it. And watch who your friends are.
The PNP is corrupt. Yet another fire to put out for the president. Has been long time will be always (same anywhere IMHO) but the depths of corruption in this country is much deeper.
Drugs are a menace and destroy lives You agree? Of not?
You watch the interview? (link GE posted) - interesting take on how westerners see things and then tell others off by saying EJK when they say collateral damage.
Wicked Roger
10-17-16, 15:23
Obviously such participation will not be popular with the US Department of State that worries about increasing Chinese influence, but that's not a concern shared by this country, and why should it be?
GE.And the president can use this as leverage. Election year in the USA with crazy myopic candidates means they grab any chance to say whatever to keep their job. So funds won't be forthcoming very soon from USA IMHO so China is a good option as long as it builds it properly (and of course all the money is spent on the roads etc).
Wicked Roger
10-17-16, 15:29
Thats one interpretation. The alternative interpretation is that anyone who dares challenge tatay 'terte will be buried. Philippine politics is conducted in a fetid atmosphere against a background of a corrupt judiciary so who knows what is the truth? All the bola bola about her personal life was completely irrelevant but hey, it derailed the senate enquiry and that's all that matters to those who condone state sanctioned murder.She never dared to challenge / file a case from 2009-2016 as she has no evidence and is bola bola.
Now that Kerwin Espinosa has been arrested in the UAE there is talk he will turn witness to save his skin and his dad's neck also.
If so her claim to never have met Kerwin will be at odds with the photos posted by the Inquirer today. Many want to see her jailed but her protector so far is Umali ex LP mate and classmate at Bedan who chairs a senate committee and said he can't see any evidence linking her to drugs. Clearly he had his ear muffs on the whole time and was deaf to what was presented - (odd as she found plenty to link 3 opposition senators but no LP senators etc in her time at the DOJ).
Karma is a bad thing at times and revenge is best served cold.
Many think soon it will be very icy for De Lima.
This depends largely on how the war is fought, doesn't it? It is estimated that before 1950, as many as 20 million Chinese were drug addicts. Chairman Mao sorted that in due order. When one wants to win a war the worst thing one may do is have tight rules of engagement. We who live in developed countries with decent protection for human rights and a respect for the rule of law would find Mao's tactics intolerable if our own governments tried to implement them. The futility of prohibition is because we cherish certain rights and our rules of engagement by and large comply with these social and legal expectations.In addition Huts, exchanging one mind altering substance for a state sanctioned mind altering substance raises uncomfortable questions of the state. Complete prohibition just does not work. No matter how many people are killed by (insert despot) folks will still find a way. Mao didn't win in the end.
FreebieFan
10-18-16, 01:29
Following tatay turte's logic for a moment, should we then commence mass execution of all mentally ill folks? Should we then commence mass execution of all elderly and infirm? Should we then commence mass execution of all infants and children because they are an economic burden? . Ethnicity? . Skin colour? . Political or religious beliefs?With thanks to Pink Floyd " In the flesh ".
And they sent us along as a surrogate band.
We're going to find out where you fans* really stand.
Are there any queers in the theater tonight?
Get them up against the wall!
There's one in the spotlight, he don't look right to me.
Get him up against the wall!
That one looks Jewish!
And that one's a coon!
Who let all of this riff-raff into the room?
There's one smoking a joint.
And another with spots!
If I had my way.
I'd have all of you shot!
However, Duterte might be successful in severing, or at least severely pruning the ties between drug trafficking and manufacture and the political and security apparatus of this country. He might then be able to force traffickers to proceed without a security shield, and if he could accomplish this, it would be a significant victory; not in the war perhaps but against the stain of drug-related corruption and the weakening of the power of the politicians and other high ranking civil servants who benefit from it.
GE.Very good point. The question is whether at the end of the day its a societal net plus or minus. Only time will tell. Was interesting in the interview Duterte was agnostic on medical marijuana. Obviously not the focus.
With regard to the Scarborough Shoals and the Spratly chain he know the reality that the land masses are already lost. China is the defacto developer and that is a fait acclompi. It seems, this is my guess, he is going to China to attempt to save face and signalling that if they will allow the final declaration of true territorial staus be left muddled and China Phils and 'Nam can all claim ownership and feel good.
The real prize is in the sea that is defined by the islands and the principal countries and the future fishing rights and more importantly the geologic treasures potentially locked beneath the sea floor.
Duterte's goal I suppose is to extract other unrelated concessions -allowance', 'help' to allow China to expoit the resources his country is not equipped to do anyway. Just like the girls work in a "restaurant" in Luzon cough cough as far as the home barangay back in Visaya is concerned.
Then everyone claims the tiny land masses and saves face back home and China gets what it truly wants.
As far as shipping lanes in the South China Sea that's up to the US Navy to control and any Phils leader has zero influence over that.
Experts say.
"The policies pursued, in this case prohibition and repression, don't succeed in reducing the size of the market and in many cases inflame the violence and corruption associated with the market," Collins told Philstar.com in an email.
http://newslab.philstar.com/war-on-drugs/policy#whenthereDemandThereWouldBeSupply.
Experts say.
"The policies pursued, in this case prohibition and repression, don't succeed in reducing the size of the market and in many cases inflame the violence and corruption associated with the market," Collins told Philstar.com in an email.
http://newslab.philstar.com/war-on-drugs/policy#whenthereDemandThereWouldBeSupply.At last an article supported by reasonably researched data, and well-quoted too. Thanks AV for the link.
I haven't got around to reading the Philstar today yet.
This paragraph scared me the most. I said something about this here on ISG last week. I know an example where this has happened inn my condo in Manila.
"Duterte's policy is counterproductive and doing the opposite: it is slaughtering people, it is making the retail (drug) market violent—as a result of state actions, extrajudicial killings and vigilante killings," she told Philstar.com in an email.
"Worse yet, it is hiding other forms of violence and murders as neighbors and neighborhood committee members put on the list of drug suspects their rivals and enemies and anyone can be killed and then labeled a pusher.
FreebieFan
10-18-16, 06:47
Experts say.
"The policies pursued, in this case prohibition and repression, don't succeed in reducing the size of the market and in many cases inflame the violence and corruption associated with the market," Collins told Philstar.com in an email.
http://newslab.philstar.com/war-on-drugs/policy#whenthereDemandThereWouldBeSupply.Excellent article. When Duterte was trying to get elected he promised that he would solve this problem.
After a couple of months of random, violent deaths that didn't seem to have much effect on the overall problem he then stated he had found the problem is bigger than he realised and that he would need a year.
I wonder what happens if after a year, there are still 3 million users, because, as the article states, every one whos tried to solve the problem has both had only temporary success, and equally pushed the problem underground, where it will regather, regroup and grow anew.
After a year will he ask for another year?
Equally, some people think that the main source of shipment of raw materials to make drugs comes from China. Same with the chemists who do the Breaking Bad work.
Will his new found friends admit this and take steps to help him solve the problem, or are his new found friends happy to keep supplying drug making chemicals to the Philippines as it will eventually lead to a nation that is both hooked on drugs, and hooked in Chinas help in eliminating the problem. Either way, China wins.
Wicked Roger
10-18-16, 15:16
As always I prefer to read news from more trusted and unbiased sources when I can. The BBC is way better in journalistic standards than anything I read in the Philippines and the link I post is well balanced IMHO. The links posted elsewhere tend to be biased to some degree.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-37681560
We can all say the killing and the push against drugs won't work but if the price of shabu increases and people (ie the voters not us to some degree) feel safer then there is an impact (some may say it is like a placebo effect). If I find it I will post a link of another article (Rappler I think maybe Inquirer) from an Iloilo resident (and voter) where she says she and many others feel safer with D30 and the death of the Odictas who he named as drug lords in the area. From a voter not an expat / visitor.
Am sure a few old scores are being settled, this is not new anywhere in the world.
If you were in Mexico I would be far more concerned especially in some areas. An example, 2 Aussie guys / surfers drove down from Baja along the west coast in search of waves and chilling out. They disappeared for a week only to be found burnt to a crisp in their car in a bad part of a drug state on the main highway not in a shanty town etc. Now do I think that will happen to me in Makati? Davao. No but maybe am cautious as GE and RK have noted themselves. But in Zambo, Jolo, Tawi Tawi. Yes so I don't go t places where I think I put myself in danger. If in Jo'burg I am more worried about that happening to me than Makati.
http://www.rappler.com/world/regions/latin-america/149519-people-found-alive-severed-hands-mexico
The above is a taster of happens in Mexico. It is worse than the Philippines? Is there such an outpouring of beating chests as there is here by the odd person or two?
I place things in perspective based on what I have seen and experienced. Maybe I have been in far worse places than others LOL.
As predicted, the bloodshed is escalating. It would seem 'tatay turtes' plan is to let things run to hell until he benevolently steps in with martial law +/- revolutionary government to 'save' his beloved nation.
In a letter to LT. Gen. Raul del Rosario, Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) central command chief, and Philippine National Police (PNP) chief Director General Ronald dela Rosa, Samar Rep. Edgar Sarmiento noted that six barangay officials have been killed in Calbayog City since August.
"I am passing along this cry for help I received from my fellow Calbayognons and Samarnons," Sarmiento stated in his letter, noting that the victims were persecuted because of their party affiliation. ".
https://209.188.21.24/articles/2016-10-18/news/afp-pnp-help-sought-to-stop-samar-killings/171627?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_term=newsletter&utm_content=newsletter&utm_campaign=newsletter
Either way, China wins.You can't beat the house LOL!
Shining Wit
10-18-16, 17:02
Reading the BBC article, one point in particular set alarm bells ringing.
$1 bn in Chinese tourism. I also follow a long established Bangkok blog that follows Thai nightlife. The reputation of the Chinese tourists visiting there is pretty shitty. Using the streets as a CR and throwing their rubbish anywhere so I suppose they will fit in } and carving Ho Li Fuk was here on temple walls. They travel in escorted herds, and apparently are barred en masse from a number of venues as their spending habits make the sub-continentals look positively carefree. As for the proposed smoking restrictions, the best of luck!
As the Chinese say, may you live in interesting times.
I have not dog in either fight, but found this article interesting about what is going on with Mr. Trump in the USA Election. One could easily replace the names in this article with Duterte, De Lima, and spokesman Abella.
https://www.thestar.com/news/world/2016/10/17/donald-trump-may-be-a-threat-to-global-democracy-experts-warnscholars-of-dictators-alarmed-by-donald-trumps-attacks-on-election-system.html
$1 bn in Chinese tourism. I also follow a long established Bangkok blog that follows Thai nightlife. The reputation of the Chinese tourists visiting there is pretty shitty. Using the streets as a CR and throwing their rubbish anywhere so I suppose they will fit in } and carving Ho Li Fuk was here on temple walls. They travel in escorted herds, and apparently are barred en masse from a number of venues as their spending habits make the sub-continentals look positively carefree. As for the proposed smoking restrictions, the best of luck!Not just Thailand SW, PRC's have this rep everywhere. Being in the confined space of a plane with a petulant self entitled PRC is a thing to behold.
As always I prefer to read news from more trusted and unbiased sources when I can. The BBC is way better in journalistic standards than anything I read in the Philippines and the link I post is well balanced IMHO. The links posted elsewhere tend to be biased to some degree.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-37681560Describing the BBC as unbiased is reaching a bit, they haven't been that for a very long time WR. Putting that aside, from the long blowing smoke up his arse article we get this in closing:
"China will be ready for him. It is already playing the long game, hoping that this week's charm offensive will begin an embrace so seductive that it ultimately undermines the Philippines' pivotal role in upholding US power in the Pacific.
Gamesmanship is all very well, but this is a game for the very high rollers. "
I have not dog in either fight, but found this article interesting about what is going on with Mr. Trump in the USA Election. One could easily replace the names in this article with Duterte, De Lima, and spokesman Abella.
https://www.thestar.com/news/world/2016/10/17/donald-trump-may-be-a-threat-to-global-democracy-experts-warnscholars-of-dictators-alarmed-by-donald-trumps-attacks-on-election-system.htmlWrong thread dude. Repost in USA politics.
This is how we are seen from the outside. SBS is roughly equivalent to the Brits BBC.
"Dateline investigates what his tough justice really looks like and talks to assassins who say they work for the police, as well as the families of their victims. ".
http://www.sbs.com.au/news/dateline/story/getting-away-murder
I would argue that this is not a 'new' problem but against this background of deteriorating economic conditions Duterte's actions seem reckless. The need for the promised foreign investment and infrastructure changes is urgent.
"More than 8,000 Filipinos lost their jobs in Saudi Arabia this year, the foreign affairs department estimated, threatening a flow of funds that has been both a pillar of consumer spending for families of expat workers and a stable source of foreign exchange.
Making things worse is the weakening of another pillar of overseas employment – hiring for merchant and cruise ships. Demand for seafarers fell 44 percent in January to July from a year earlier, the central bank said. Philippine mariners account for about a quarter of the 1. 5 million seafarers worldwide. ".
http://www.mb.com.ph/dutertes-new-problem-is-an-arabian-nightmare/
This is pretty light weight but begs the question, how long can Duterte keep burning through his political capital?
"More Filipinos have expressed "little trust" in China in the past three months, amid President Rodrigo Duterte's apparent foreign policy shift toward the emerging superpower, according to the latest Social Weather Stations (SWS) survey results. ".
http://www.mb.com.ph/poll-more-pinoys-have-little-trust-in-big-china/
Chocha Monger
10-19-16, 04:48
For decades, the Philippines has been a place where foreigners have few property rights and are targets for criminal minded natives out to enrich themselves at the expense of outsiders. Duterte's war on drugs has not changed this and the natives never needed an excuse to rob and murder foreigners. The corrupt law enforcement establishment has been planting drugs and using women of questionable age to frame and extort foreigners long before Duterte was even on the horizon. So, the increase in vigilantism among the natives will have little direct impact on the expat unless he has married a Filipino with relatives connected to the drug trade or he likes to get it on with shabu addicts.
As of yet, no foreigners have been rounded up, lined up against the wall and executed. There has been no mass seizure of private property held by foreigners. No foreign corporations have been nationalized for the public good. In fact, more private property has been seized from foreigners and liquidated by their Filipino wives, girlfriends, and business partners. More murders of foreigners have also resulted from these interactions between foreigners and natives than any alleged hits carried out by Duterte's death squads. The average expat has more to fear from his maid and her boyfriend than vigilantes out to execute supposed drug dealers and addicts.
Another issue being ignored in the recent hysteria is the murder of witnesses and associates by the drug syndicates in an attempt to cover their tracks. Many of these murders are being blamed on anti-drug death squads when, in reality, the drug dealers carried out the hits to silence people who knew too much about their activities and were likely to squeal to the authorities in exchange for the cash rewards offered.
Filipino law enforcement has been known to cook the books when it comes to reporting violent crime. It would not be a surprise if they are simply reporting unsolved murders as extra-judicial killings related to the drug war instead of actually carrying out an investigation. Any attempt to determine an increase in violent deaths due to the war on drugs must first include some reliable statistics on murders where the cases were solved and the motives known. Establishing such a baseline is no easy task in the Philippines. So, for now, the only reliable numbers concerning casualties in the drug war are limited to those where know drug dealers were killed in shootouts with the security forces. Just because a dead body is found in the streets with a crudely scrawled cardboard sign labeling the victim as a drug dealer does mean this was the true motive behind the murder or that the victim was really involved in drugs. The killer may simply be exploiting the current death squad paranoia to create misdirection.
In any case, all expats should already have an exit strategy and repatriation plan in place for when things go bad in their mongering paradise. Chances are they will need it for reasons totally unrelated to Duterte's presidency. It is far more likely that they will have their stumps cut down due to something mundane like dipping their wick in the wrong girl's oil, becoming involved in local business dealings, violating immigration law, or getting into a dispute with a vindictive native. If the bolt hole back in their homeland has become untenable, it is advisable to look to other shores. The Philippines is not the only mango / pineapple / banana republic in Southeast Asia were mongers can get cheap thrills while maintaining a thin veneer of being a businessman, professor, or some expert in an obscure field.
However, there is no need to sell the nipa hut by the beach along with the kawayan furniture and rush for the exit now. We should at least wait until Duterte uses the new "bullet" train to ship the first batch of dissent mongers to labor camps being constructed in Luzon and Mindanao by his Chinese benefactors. Meanwhile, let's look into countries that grant political asylum when the basic human right to monger has been violated. Potential countries should be opposed to deporting mongers back to their country of citizenship based solely on past due alimony payments.
GoodEnough
10-19-16, 05:38
Evidently Moody's doesn't share AV's doom and gloom forecasts. I'm assuming this assessment will allow the government to borrow at reasonable cost to finance it's infrastructure agenda, or at least a reasonable part thereof: http://www.philstar.com/business/2016/10/19/1634886/moodys-upgrades-philippine-growth-forecasts.
GE.
Wicked Roger
10-19-16, 14:21
This is how we are seen from the outside. SBS is roughly equivalent to the Brits BBC.
"Dateline investigates what his tough justice really looks like and talks to assassins who say they work for the police, as well as the families of their victims. ".
http://www.sbs.com.au/news/dateline/story/getting-away-murderThere was similar on the BBC a few weeks ago (Google it) and you said nothing then so why now? So they say they do so prove it?
Are you saying this never happened before D30, no politician and his / her private army did this? Or rich elite got their kids off murder (example: of an ex US serviceman in Makati. See YouTube) with a slap on the hand? You never complained then Amavida so why suddenly the last 3 months?
So how about you stop posting this diatribe stuff as you clearly hate the country and leave? Then you have nothing to worry about and will stop posting LOL.
And if you continue please put things into context as most of what you say one eyed as never have you complained about this before D30? Means what? You are scared? Of what?
This is how we are seen from the outside. SBS is roughly equivalent to the Brits BBC.
"Dateline investigates what his tough justice really looks like and talks to assassins who say they work for the police, as well as the families of their victims. ".
http://www.sbs.com.au/news/dateline/story/getting-away-murderI never realized you were pilipino.
I just assumed the posters here were all foriegners. It must be totally different to view what's happening to 'us' rather than to 'them' as most of us do. Now I can appreciate your optimism as to the faith as to the educated elites who rule your country. As an outsider seeing the back and forth of the oligarchs and thier political toadys running the country since the fall of Marcos the back and forth between the clans, none of whom give a shit about the masses I have zero faith. Your country needs a serious shake up politcally.
Wicked Roger
10-19-16, 14:33
Evidently Moody's doesn't share AV's doom and gloom forecasts. I'm assuming this assessment will allow the government to borrow at reasonable cost to finance it's infrastructure agenda, or at least a reasonable part thereof: http://www.philstar.com/business/2016/10/19/1634886/moodys-upgrades-philippine-growth-forecasts.
GE.I also saw this and was going to post GE until you told me about it and you were FR already.
The recent commentary from the IMF when PNoy was in charge was along the line of "the GDP growth rate is impressive but is only sustainable when it is passed down to the people" Likely visa infrastructure and and other investments.
This never happen and as predicted by the IMF GDP growth contracted.
So if this proves sustainable and if China lends the all the trillions and if the roads, hospitals etc are improved and built then GDP may remain relatively high IMHO. How the country intends to pay for it remains a mystery to me (well to a certain degree).
But this is good news to counter the general negative ramblings of Amavida (who I see is now suggesting people don't visit AC. Is this another Matthew Cobb in disguise? LOL).
Wicked Roger
10-19-16, 14:49
Evidently Moody's doesn't share AV's doom and gloom forecasts. I'm assuming this assessment will allow the government to borrow at reasonable cost to finance it's infrastructure agenda, or at least a reasonable part thereof: http://www.philstar.com/business/2016/10/19/1634886/moodys-upgrades-philippine-growth-forecasts.
GE.And another link about the 'Silk Route' being followed by the new administration.
An interesting read and some comments I could take issue with but from the same source that Amavida uses so maybe he missed this? Yet again? LOL.
http://thestandard.com.ph/news/headlines/219190/du30-to-take-silk-road.html
Wicked Roger
10-19-16, 14:55
Despite Amavida hoping, praying his best friends from the LP succeed in getting D30 impeached for the EJKs here are a few articles about Mexico etc and its drug war plus how it links to the ICC which seem to hold out no hope?
Interesting in that it picks up the tone from the president's interview.
And as the ICC won't / can't / is totally unable to prosecute Mexico for 120+k deaths (and other for genocide) why Amavdia do you think it should bother for 3000 people? Please tell us your views as you tend not to discourse on this matter just post and post with no context.
Plus some don't want to be a witness. So how can De Lima, the CHR and all your other buddies manage it?
http://www.philstar.com/opinion/2016/10/19/1635043/ignoring-mexico-icc-picks-philippines
http://cebudailynews.inquirer.net/108991/lack-of-witnesses-delay-case-filing
http://www.philstar.com/cebu-news/2016/10/19/1635141/ejk-witnesses-quit
Wicked Roger
10-19-16, 15:02
Amavida. He seems to have missed your name in his criticisms? What he said is fairly accurate IMHO.
Better write to the palace and complain. Make your objections known, stand up and be counted yes? Are you writing to the media on this as perhaps? Or asking the CHR about how to support it?
http://www.philstar.com/headlines/2016/10/19/1635201/duterte-china-supported-drug-war-us-eu-only-criticized
Evidently Moody's doesn't share AV's doom and gloom forecasts. I'm assuming this assessment will allow the government to borrow at reasonable cost to finance it's infrastructure agenda, or at least a reasonable part thereof: http://www.philstar.com/business/2016/10/19/1634886/moodys-upgrades-philippine-growth-forecasts.
GE.Doom & gloom GE? Well I certainly will own up to playing the devils advocate, a role that see's me vilified on a pretty regular basis 😎 I don't take any of it to heart. Life too short and all that what?
I do very much enjoy hearing the range of well presented opinions and links. Some of the posts are outstanding. Thank you to those posters.
Since I have have 'skin in the game' I would dearly love to see this country lift itself out of the mire. At my age I tire of killing and destruction. Is that so bad?
Wrong thread dude. Repost in USA politics. WR it seems that the closed minded are unable to project what has happened historically in other times and places and see through their paranoia even when their positions are supported indirectly. Back to the basement I think.
At last an article supported by reasonably researched data, and well-quoted too. Thanks AV for the link.
This paragraph scared me the most. I said something about this here on ISG last week. I know an example where this has happened inn my condo in Manila.
"Duterte's policy is counterproductive and doing the opposite: it is slaughtering people, it is making the retail (drug) market violentas a result of state actions, extrajudicial killings and vigilante killings," she told Philstar.com in an email.
"Worse yet, it is hiding other forms of violence and murders as neighbors and neighborhood committee members put on the list of drug suspects their rivals and enemies and anyone can be killed and then labeled a pusher.I understand your concern RK. In Clark I live amongst the upper echelon somewhat removed from the reality facing the majority of poor. When I'm at my place in ZDN I relish living the simple provincial lifestyle but this presents risks. Although I have a good reputation with the local priest and barangay captain I do keep my business to my self. People around this neck of the woods only know I am rich (compared to them) but little else. I'm acutely aware that idle gossip, a Filipino staple, even just jokingly could see dead without warning now. It's no longer enough to just keep your nose clean, it's deadly now.
Excellent article. When Duterte was trying to get elected he promised that he would solve this problem.
After a couple of months of random, violent deaths that didn't seem to have much effect on the overall problem he then stated he had found the problem is bigger than he realised and that he would need a year.
I wonder what happens if after a year, there are still 3 million users, because, as the article states, every one whos tried to solve the problem has both had only temporary success, and equally pushed the problem underground, where it will regather, regroup and grow anew.
After a year will he ask for another year?
Equally, some people think that the main source of shipment of raw materials to make drugs comes from China. Same with the chemists who do the Breaking Bad work.
Will his new found friends admit this and take steps to help him solve the problem, or are his new found friends happy to keep supplying drug making chemicals to the Philippines as it will eventually lead to a nation that is both hooked on drugs, and hooked in Chinas help in eliminating the problem. Either way, China wins.FF I agree the danger of this dragging on indefinitely is real. The benefits are highly suspect. It's 'common knowledge' around ZDN that the chem labs are on ships stationed in waters between Indonesia & Southern Philippines.
FreebieFan
10-20-16, 01:47
We, as expats (or aliens as the Philippines is won't to address us), have spent many hours and many words talking about Duterte and his policies and his will he / won't hes.
The man himself, doesn't seem to worry.
http://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy-defence/article/2034920/late-riser-duterte-leaves-hotel-past-2pm-meet-only
Goes to Beijing on a 4 day trip (China usually only grants a 2 day trip to most visitors but wanted to show Duterte he was one of their big hitters), and has nothing to do there.
Regardless of the veracity of the story, its there I media space and has once again confirmed to all readers that Filipinos don't like to work too hard.
Those of us who have lived and worked there know that Filipinos work very hard, and have very hard lives. This article implies the opposite.
We, as expats (or aliens as the Philippines is won't to address us), have spent many hours and many words talking about Duterte and his policies and his will he / won't hes.
The man himself, doesn't seem to worry.
http://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy-defence/article/2034920/late-riser-duterte-leaves-hotel-past-2pm-meet-only
Goes to Beijing on a 4 day trip (China usually only grants a 2 day trip to most visitors but wanted to show Duterte he was one of their big hitters), and has nothing to do there.
Regardless of the veracity of the story, its there I media space and has once again confirmed to all readers that Filipinos don't like to work too hard.
Those of us who have lived and worked there know that Filipinos work very hard, and have very hard lives. This article implies the opposite.Thanks for the link FF. I hope folks cut me the same slack when I get to his age LOL! 😄 My house keeper barges in at 4. 30 every morning and asks me with a serious look on her face if I am awake to which I always reply 'I am now'. 🙄.
Men here are either industrious or indolent depending if they have paid work available which is fair enough I guess.
GoodEnough
10-20-16, 08:23
For those of us with US Passports, the choice of whether to stay or go may not actually be up to us for very much longer: http://pinoytrending.altervista.org/bakit-di-natin-tablahin-president-duterte-asked-us-citizen-easily-travel-philippines-filipinos-denied-embassy/.
GE.
Hmmm. That's a big contrast to what the guy told me last time I was getting my extension. In the office, they seemed to think that rules would get more relaxed under the new administration, rather than stricter.
Wicked Roger
10-20-16, 12:29
If this is true (well the USA has been very critical and he did chastise it for this etc in that Al Jazeera interview) then as Aussie and the EU have been equally critical maybe what GE said could mean many go to Thailand as easier than getting visas.
http://www.philstar.com/headlines/2016/10/20/1635568/criticism-drug-war-contributed-foreign-policy-shift-duterte-says
Of course it could be a trick by the president to save all the cuties for Chinese and Koreas and stop us grubby westerners helping the local economy LOL.
And the same day he announces no more military / economic ties with the USA (while he was in China so lets see if politics has more substance over reality).
http://www.philstar.com/headlines/2016/10/20/1635600/duterte-announces-military-economic-break-us
Maybe some should be more diplomatic with what they say?
For those of us with US Passports, the choice of whether to stay or go may not actually be up to us for very much longer: http://pinoytrending.altervista.org/bakit-di-natin-tablahin-president-duterte-asked-us-citizen-easily-travel-philippines-filipinos-denied-embassy/.
GE.On the other hand he may pay a price for his policy GE:
http://www.sunstar.com.ph/cebu/opinion/2016/10/19/malilong-americans-still-preferred-504608
Not just Thailand SW, PRC's have this rep everywhere. Being in the confined space of a plane with a petulant self entitled PRC is a thing to behold.Must have been getting a lot of complaints. Although, Americans traveling abroad can be annoying as well.
http://www.theatlantic.com/china/archive/2013/10/chinese-government-publishes-guide-on-how-to-avoid-being-a-terrible-tourist/280332/
https://www.ft.com/content/5e73443c-e9d8-11e4-a687-00144feab7de
http://www.philstar.com/headlines/2016/10/20/1635600/duterte-announces-military-economic-break-us
Maybe some should be more diplomatic with what they say?I'm officially nervous now (and I can pickup and go pretty easily after my lease is over). Will be interesting if the western BPO companies get nervous as well.
GoodEnough
10-20-16, 17:04
I'm officially nervous now (and I can pickup and go pretty easily after my lease is over). Will be interesting if the western BPO companies get nervous as well.Anyone seen this? http://news.abs-cbn.com/news/10/20/16/duterte-its-russia-china-ph-against-the-world.
Sort of difficult to parse, but at worst, it's fairly scary. Does he think that Chinese BPOs are going to flood in here to replace Western operations? The rhetoric is ramping up, and it ain't about drugs or crime. I wonder if proposed Chinese investment in infrastructure would offset the job losses associated with a massive pull-out of Western BPOs?
GE.
Wicked Roger
10-20-16, 17:43
Anyone seen this? http://news.abs-cbn.com/news/10/20/16/duterte-its-russia-china-ph-against-the-world.
Sort of difficult to parse, but at worst, it's fairly scary. Does he think that Chinese BPOs are going to flood in here to replace Western operations? The rhetoric is ramping up, and it ain't about drugs or crime. I wonder if proposed Chinese investment in infrastructure would offset the job losses associated with a massive pull-out of Western BPOs?
GE.Politics and trade / investment are not a good mix and sometimes you must talk with the devil and do what the devil wants IMHO. That means say what he has said as he is there (to please his hosts cum financiers as the country needs the cash). Now if this really happens then some will be nervous and we could be having pot noodle for breakfast, lunch and dinner LOL.
But I tend to be more laid back.
Having seen the Arabs have serious tantrums and rhetoric on TV and the press nearly every day against Israel and then go trade with them I am somewhat unsure what this means. The country does need the USA especially once it realizes the quality of Chinese goods is at times sub standard, and the US will definitely want to maintain a presence in the region. Maybe it will move to another country that would happily take its dosh and all the military guys etc. Am sure there are plenty of takers if push comes to shove.
Am more concerned about the pot noodles flooding the shelves to be honest and the closure of nice restos LOL But D30 anti smoking ban won't go down well LOL.
Wicked Roger
10-20-16, 17:48
Must have been getting a lot of complaints. Although, Americans traveling abroad can be annoying as well.
http://www.theatlantic.com/china/archive/2013/10/chinese-government-publishes-guide-on-how-to-avoid-being-a-terrible-tourist/280332/
https://www.ft.com/content/5e73443c-e9d8-11e4-a687-00144feab7deNot just PRCs and the US, watch the Brits. Some can be totally stupid and get arrested. Then complain (example, Dubai shagging on the beach, being totally drunk in public; or Spain. Plenty examples). They tend not to travel well especially the younger ones. I have seen many embarrassing incidents at airports, planes and holiday destinations.
Now the Arabs can be equally awful but then they spend a lot so some forgive them LOL.
The PRCs in the hotels all bring bags of food and all they ask for is hot water. So said a nice waitress I was shagging. No real margin for the hotel IMHO and they tend to take in huge tour groups but the staff don't like at all.
But maybe time has come to learn Cantonese and Mandarin?
Asian Rain
10-20-16, 18:03
Anyone seen this? http://news.abs-cbn.com/news/10/20/16/duterte-its-russia-china-ph-against-the-world.Priceless. I love the on-the-fly foreign policy. To borrow the WWII analogy, in the China-Russia-Philippines Axis Powers, you know which one will be Italy. I love the Mussolini-style "I" being used by the developing dictator. Good timing for his overtures as nothing will be done until the US elections are over. Will have to wait and see how Hillary will deal with him when the first Chinese warship docks in a Philippines harbor. Going to happen soon, so watch this space! Enjoy the Philippines, AsianRain.
Shining Wit
10-20-16, 18:30
Priceless. I love the on-the-fly foreign policy. To borrow the WWII analogy, in the China-Russia-Philippines Axis Powers, you know which one will be Italy. I love the Mussolini-style "I" being used by the developing dictator. Good timing for his overtures as nothing will be done until the US elections are over. Will have to wait and see how Hillary will deal with him when the first Chinese warship docks in a Philippines harbor. Going to happen soon, so watch this space! Enjoy the Philippines, AsianRain.How will Du30 deal with it come the next typhoon / earthquake / natural disaster and the first US warship doesn't dock in a Philippines harbor?
BPO and foreign remittance alone isn't helping to develop a country. All it brings is hyper inflation with the poor left alone. PH as any poor country does need modern infrastructures and factories to develop, they need to do their industrial revolution. Problem is previous governments haven't done the proper investments with all that cash flooding in the country. Hope he isn't going to turn PH into a new third world communist country tho.
FreebieFan
10-21-16, 03:07
Anyone seen this? http://news.abs-cbn.com/news/10/20/16/duterte-its-russia-china-ph-against-the-world.
Sort of difficult to parse, but at worst, it's fairly scary. Does he think that Chinese BPOs are going to flood in here to replace Western operations? The rhetoric is ramping up, and it ain't about drugs or crime. I wonder if proposed Chinese investment in infrastructure would offset the job losses associated with a massive pull-out of Western BPOs?
GE.I think he makes up foreign policy according to his mood and doesn't realise, or want to realise that trade, government, diplomacy are all totally interconnected and that in this world, one must be friends with everyone to make both a country safe, and for trade to continue. The world has long moved on from when one could stick ones head in the sand and be isolated (North koreans would be eating sand if not for China, UK will negotiate out but will still trade with EU, Cuba will soon start to see the benefit of trade with the word etc).
I'm sure Duterte has some good advisors who will listen to his speech with a groan, realising that.
A) they will have to tell The Pres that what he said isn't achievable.
B) they wil lhave to tell other diplomats, business leaders that what the Pres said was, to use the word of the day " Hyperbole". Pres says one thing and his people say " he was just kidding ".
Theres a wonderful photo of D30 in yesterdays South China Morning Post to which I can't find the link, but it shows China Pres standing tall, with a smug smile, D30 standing shorter, with a supplicants smile, and to the world it looks like a schoolboy with a headmaster, or an employee on his first day at school meeting his new boss. And maybe that's how it is.
GoodEnough
10-21-16, 03:24
BPO and foreign remittance alone isn't helping to develop a country. All it brings is hyper inflation with the poor left alone. PH as any poor country does need modern infrastructures and factories to develop, they need to do their industrial revolution. Problem is previous governments haven't done the proper investments with all that cash flooding in the country. Hope he isn't going to turn PH into a new third world communist country tho.Inflation here is fairly low, but as to the rest, of course you're correct. What I've never understood, and still don't is why the country continues to see itself as an eternal supplicant, having adopted the: "You're rich, we're poor so help us," mentality for so long that they seem incapable of doing anything for themselves. The fact is that the country has a good credit rating, could borrow cheaply to construct much-needed infrastructure, and has a viable private sector capable of designing and building the infrastructure, at least in terms of airports and roads. As far as mass transport--particularly heavy rail or urban transport system--the country lacks significant expertise and would likely need outside help.
It wouldn't surprise me at all if China offered "soft loans" and the expertise of Chinese companies to build the much touted Mindanao Rail line, nor would it shock me if China offered to built some sort of mass transit system in metro Manila. The real question is what China will want in return for its largesse and I'm guessing it's going to be access to the country's huge, untapped mineral wealth.
GE.
How will Du30 deal with it come the next typhoon / earthquake / natural disaster and the first US warship doesn't dock in a Philippines harbor?Weirdly, westerns are compassionate even if the government is spitting in their face (separating the people and the government). You only need to look to Yolanda relief to see how China operates. Originally, they pledged $100 K and then bad PR had them increase it to $2 M. Aid from the US, EU and UN was over $200 M.
http://www.philstar.com/headlines/2013/11/18/1258129/hit-measly-donation-china-mulls-boosting-yolanda-relief-aid
http://www.rappler.com/newsbreak/iq/148685-united-nations-european-union-united-states-foreign-aid-philippines-typhoon-yolanda
FreebieFan
10-21-16, 04:50
I
It wouldn't surprise me at all if China offered "soft loans" and the expertise of Chinese companies to build the much touted Mindanao Rail line, nor would it shock me if China offered to built some sort of mass transit system in metro Manila. The real question is what China will want in return for its largesse and I'm guessing it's going to be access to the country's huge, untapped minteral wealth.
GE.They will want what the Philippines can give that won't upset the major players in various industries. That means power, toll roads, mobile and internet, airlines and all areas that are fully controllled. Mines are very different matter.
Africa, almost all Africa is now full of Chinese investments. Roads for Rubies if you will.
In return, roads, railways, ports (and usually a football stadium or an airport terminal named after the President who signed the deal) are now all over Africa and all their mineral wealth are on ships being delivered to China on a daily basis.
Given that no one family or company controls mines and mineral wealth, I suspect that you are correct in thinking Duterte can give up the wealth and will get little friction from the major players.
AgentOrange
10-21-16, 05:04
http://www.mb.com.ph/duterte-mulls-ph-visa-for-americans/
http://www.mb.com.ph/duterte-mulls-ph-visa-for-americans/Now that would nice if Pinays can just walk in and get instant visas without all the BS. Of course the return rate might be low. But what the hell Muslim refugees can just waltz in without a visa and get a green card right away!
"United States officials are seeking clarification on President Rodrigo Duterte's statement that about "separation" from the USA, which they said is creating "unnecessary uncertainty. ".
http://www.mb.com.ph/us-wants-dutertes-separation-pledge-clarified/
Girls got spunk.
http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/829003/de-lima-questions-pivot-why-china-when-its-the-source-of-drugs
Wicked Roger
10-21-16, 13:23
Girls got spunk.
http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/829003/de-lima-questions-pivot-why-china-when-its-the-source-of-drugsShe should know given recent revelations in the Senate and press. Am wondering if she is worried that some nasty will again raise its ugly head and tie her to something Chinese also?
IMHO she is on a losing wicket as she is all about media attention as she is hoping her ex driver never appears (like the key people for the Binays who have never turned up to discuss matters).
If she had any proof of D30 alleged DDS etc she could have filed a case (s) from 2009 She did not so IMHO she is all bluster, has no proof and is out to save her skin. Especially since the president said she should be in jail recently in the press.
Her credibility for me is at an all time low as she could have dealt with / found solutions to a lot of drug stuff / corruption while leading the DOJ. She did not and then did a little when she ran for the Senate. Tad suspicious IMHO.
GoodEnough
10-21-16, 13:27
No idea if what's reported herein is true, but if it is, the country's infra is going to improve dramatically over the next few years. Of course there's always the concern about Chinese quality control, but what the hell. http://www.rappler.com/business/industries/149797-china-philippines-infrastructure-ppp-beijing.
GE.
This shoud be good for the hobby, as it will keep hillary at bay and those NGO's trying to close down the sex industry. Also seems like Cambodia and thailand are also moving toward China, and away from us influence.
Last year the majority of Filipinos were excoriating the Chinese, including the Philippine oligarchs. Today, it's God bless our fearless leader, slamming the door on those nations that provided most of the aid for the on-going natural catastrophes. WTF?
Comment: What is the net effect of all this other than entertainment value? Tatay 'turte trundles around emitting these brain farts, palace routinely contradicts him & tries to explain it away. The Gordon's are none too happy, the opposition are, of course, apoplectic. The state sanctioned murder goes on completely unchecked. The 'triumphant' visit to Beijing achieved little but vague promises, making Philippines look like grovelling fools, deeply offending a long time military ally and major aid donor, handing the Chinese a massive foreign policy coup against the US in not conceding any territorial claims. The Japanese will not be at all pleased with this. Grovelling to Beijing is never on their agenda. Looking forward to the freak show as Tatay heads to a meeting in Japan. Should be hilarious.
On a darker note, Duterte is operating in a completely autocratic manner. Nobody in government knows or is consulted as what he will do or say next. That's a concern.
MANILA- Senator Leila De Lima questioned the timing of President Rodrigo Duterte's announcement of "separation" from the United States on Friday, calling her top critic "naive" and "delusional. ".
"It's one thing to keep your Cabinet members in the dark which is deeply troubling in itself but it's a whole level of betrayal to keep that from the Filipino people, and to announce it for the first time in front of foreigners," she said.
http://news.abs-cbn.com/news/10/21/16/de-lima-to-naive-duterte-stop-making-yourself-enemy-of-the-world
GoodEnough
10-21-16, 23:55
Yesterday, I was in the airport in Cebu waiting for my flight to Davao, and in one of the bars sat next to a fairly young, obviously wealthy Chinese guy whose English was excellent. We talked about the implications of the Duterte China pivot for Chinese private investment here, and the businessman with whom I was speaking thought it would be significant. He was in Cebu to discuss--with his local partners--moving part of his business interests here. He said that wages in China are climbing rapidly and he thought--even with payoffs to politicians and "the the local mafia"he would be able to cut his costs by about 60% by moving here, though he had nothing but contempt for Filipinos, for the country and for the government. The Chinese, he said, due to their experience operating in the "new" China, understand corruption, mafia-like payoffs and operating on a playing field that is not always level. He explained that for him, and for most Chinese business people, politics was irrelevant, and their only objective was to make money.
I suspect that this guy represents part of what will be a growing wave of private Chinese investment, encouraged by the recent meeting between Duterte and his Chinese counterparts. To this guy, this country represented nothing more than an accessible low-cost labor pool that would enable him to make money. He didn't care about the politics, the increase of Chinese hegemony or global implications, and that's probably a point of view that will be shared among other Chinese business owners who might come here seeking to exploit new business opportunities.
From the standpoint of increasing FDI, Duterte's visit then might turn out to have very positive ramifications for the Philippines. The manufacturing sector here has been lagging for years and Chinese investment might spark something of a resurgence, and create new employment in the process, while simultaneously lining the pockets of the local political class, as the Chinese accept corruption as a necessary business expense.
Of course Japan, Singapore, Vietnam and other SE Asian countries wary of growing Chinese influence won't be terribly excited by the Philippines becoming a Chinese satrap, and this may cause problems in the relationship between the Philippines and other ASEAN countries. But that remains to be seen. The immediate impact of the Duterte China pivot is more likely to result in jobs and a positive bump for an economy that sorely needs one.
GE.
Now that would nice if Pinays can just walk in and get instant visas without all the BS. Of course the return rate might be low. But what the hell Muslim refugees can just waltz in without a visa and get a green card right away!To what country can Muslim refugees waltz in without a visa and get a visa? Philipines? From what Muslim country? Why are they moving to the phils?
Thanks.
To what country can Muslim refugees waltz in without a visa and get a visa? Philipines? From what Muslim country? Why are they moving to the phils?
Thanks.The previous news article referred to visas to enter USA. It was USA I was referring too.
Soapy Smith
10-22-16, 06:46
The previous news article referred to visas to enter USA. It was USA I was referring too."After the UNHCR refers a refugee applicant to the United States, the application is processed by a federally funded Resettlement Support Center, which gathers information about the candidate to prepare for an intensive screening process, which includes an interview, a medical evaluation and an interagency security screening process aimed at ensuring the refugee does not pose a threat to the United States.
The average processing time for refugee applications is 18 to 24 months, but Syrian applications can take significantly longer because of security concerns and difficulties in verifying their information."
Is this what you mean by "waltzing in" without a visa?
http://www.cnn.com/2015/11/16/politics/syrian-refugees-u-s-applicants-explainer/
Soapy Smith
10-22-16, 07:42
Last year the majority of Filipinos were excoriating the Chinese, including the Philippine oligarchs. Today, it's God bless our fearless leader, slamming the door on those nations that provided most of the aid for the on-going natural catastrophes. WTF?"If a nation expects to be ignorant and free in a state of civilization, it expects what never was and never will be. " --Thomas Jefferson to Charles Yancey, 1816.
This relates perhaps to the adage that "we get the government we deserve," but is this a fair judgement to pass on the Filipino masses? RK has noted more than once how Jose Rizal intimated in Noli Me Tangere (1887) that Filipinos were not then ready for self-government. We might reasonably ask whether anything has changed in 130 years.
Some Americans have been fascinated recently with a 2012 interview with former Supreme Court Justice David Souter (appointed by Bush I in 1990, retired 2009). In it he describes warnings from Thomas Jefferson and Benjamin Franklin about the threat to democracy from civic ignorance. He suggests that external enemies are not nearly so worrisome as the threat that through citizens' inattention and civic ignorance it could be possible for a strongman to take over simply by promising to take action (by whatever means) against problems that earlier office-holders had neglected.
He was referring to the United States--and some observers see it as a prescient reference to a Trump-like personality--but his warning clearly resonates with the present Philippine scenario. Where Souter was describing the erosion of American civic awareness, we might surmise that Filipinos never quite acquired a requisite level of civic aptitude.
Here are links to a seven minute (first) and three minute (second) version of Souter's remarks:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rWcVtWennr0&feature=youtu.be
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CXa0L9ofFbM
GoodEnough
10-22-16, 09:59
Last year the majority of Filipinos were excoriating the Chinese, including the Philippine oligarchs. Today, it's God bless our fearless leader, slamming the door on those nations that provided most of the aid for the on-going natural catastrophes. WTF?And next the great masses will be chanting the praises of Russia, which most Filipinos couldn't find on a map. Ovine-like acquiescence to a strong political figure is--as proven by the Trump phenomenon in the US--all too easy to exploit, and that's the case here. I've started to see lots of anti-American, and general anti-Western rants from locals about how the poor Filippinos have finally broken their chains of subservience, and it's all a bit worrisome; a point of view that's especially credible in light of the recent violent mob scene in front of the US Embassy.
Strangely enough the historical grievances of Duterte directed at the US--many of which are legitimate--haven't been similarly aimed at the Japanese who committed atrocities here during WWII. According to Duterte, when someone asked why this is true, he responded that Japan would not have been here in the first place without the presence of US troops, which is a fairly dubious premise.
Duterte's fury is aimed with full vitriol at the US and to a slightly lesser extent to the EU. Whether the strong language and condemnations will have any spillover effect on how local Filipinos relate to Westerners is, at the point, unknown, but it's not beyond the pale of reason to think so. According to one of my Filipino friends on Facebook, a group of BPO operators had an emergency meeting yesterday in Manila, so there's obviously some concern.
GE.
Fastpiston
10-22-16, 10:19
Yesterday, I was in the airport in Cebu waiting for my flight to Davao, and in one of the bars sat next to a fairly young, obviously wealthy Chinese guy whose English was excellent. We talked about the implications of the Duterte China pivot for Chinese private investment here, and the businessman with whom I was speaking thought it would be significant. He was in Cebu to discuss--with his local partners--moving part of his business interests here. He said that wages in China are climbing rapidly and he thought--even with payoffs to politicians and "the the local mafia"he would be able to cut his costs by about 60% by moving here, though he had nothing but contempt for Filipinos, for the country and for the government. The Chinese, he said, due to their experience operating in the "new" China, understand corruption, mafia-like payoffs and operating on a playing field that is not always level. He explained that for him, and for most Chinese business people, politics was irrelevant, and their only objective was to make money.
I suspect that this guy represents part of what will be a growing wave of private Chinese investment, encouraged by the recent meeting between Duterte and his Chinese counterparts. To this guy, this country represented nothing more than an accessible low-cost labor pool that would enable him to make money. He didn't care about the politics, the increase of Chinese hegemony or global implications, and that's probably a point of view that will be shared among other Chinese business owners who might come here seeking to exploit new business opportunities.
From the standpoint of increasing FDI, Duterte's visit then might turn out to have very positive ramifications for the Philippines. The manufacturing sector here has been lagging for years and Chinese investment might spark something of a resurgence, and create new employment in the process, while simultaneously lining the pockets of the local political class, as the Chinese accept corruption as a necessary business expense.
Of course Japan, Singapore, Vietnam and other SE Asian countries wary of growing Chinese influence won't be terribly excited by the Philippines becoming a Chinese satrap, and this may cause problems in the relationship between the Philippines and other ASEAN countries. But that remains to be seen. The immediate impact of the Duterte China pivot is more likely to result in jobs and a positive bump for an economy that sorely needs one.
GE.A lot have businesses have moved out of China as labor costs have risen a lot there. Most of the business, especially garment factories, have moved to Vietnam, Cambodia and Bangladesh. Intel moved out of the Philippines to Vietnam a few years ago.
Ms Account
10-22-16, 10:27
A dimension that needs to be overlayed over the current political status is the impact of a world economic depression that is highly likely in the immediate future. Anti globalisation and protectionism is already clearly on the rise. The purpose of this post is not to justify that prediction (sufficient to say we have being on a sugar high since the GFC in 2008) but to consider how that would impact the current political direction. Given the Philippines's dependency on OFWs, BPO Outsourcing and to lesser extent manufacturing the Philippines will be dramatically impacted. This will just inflame the burgeoning anti West sentiment (and possibly exploited politically). I propose resident Westerners need to have contingency plans for exiting.
PS I read a book a few years ago that analysed the impact of the depression on colonial Asian economies. The French were the most exploitive within Indo China ultimately resulting in the Vietnam war. The British were not exactly saints with Malaya and India. However the USA were the most supportive with not restricting Philippines imports into the US even though protectionism was on the rise. Something Duterte would never recognise.
GoodEnough
10-23-16, 02:11
PS I read a book a few years ago that analysed the impact of the depression on colonial Asian economies. The French were the most exploitive within Indo China ultimately resulting in the Vietnam war. The British were not exactly saints with Malaya and India. However the USA were the most supportive with not restricting Philippines imports into the US even though protectionism was on the rise. Something Duterte would never recognise.Duterte likely does have some legitimate complaints about the US. The massacre of Moros really did occur, though about 100 years ago, and the US did force the Philippines to provide special concessions--many of which still exist--for US agricultural companies. His point about the US never going to war with China over the Philippines is also true, as is the fact that--aside from the Marcos era--the US has not provided assistance in constructing desperately needed infrastructure. Conversely, 49% of all OFW remittances stem from the US, and US companies dominate the BPO activity here, without which tens of thousands of Filipinos wouldn't have decent jobs. It's highly doubtful that the Chinese are going to open their borders to Filipino OFWs or that they will establish much in the way of BPO networks.
What I will never understand, even after spending so long a time here, is why the country's lack of development is always ascribed to external factors. Other regional players--Thailand and Vietnam to name two--have implemented some truly visionary development plans, and have found means to secure the financing for those plans. Singapore of course is in a class of its own. But here, it appears that funding is always the responsibility of another country, the the question becomes "who will fill my begging bowl?" This country is the"Trump" of ASEAN, forever blaming others and never, but never acknowledging its own shortcomings.
I've heard from friends in the BPO sector that expansion plans made recently have now been put on indefinite hold by some of the larger companies, so Duterte's anti-American stance has already had a negative impact on immediate US investments. I'm guessing that EU companies are also now more cautious about expansionary investment.
GE.
Speculating on ramifications of Dutertopia. Make of it what you will. From my perspective Philippines will become China's gravel pit & temporary source of cheaper labor with long term economic damage. This combined with escalating state sanctioned murder and rising anti western sentiment I have believe it is prudent to activate contingency plans.
BACOLOD CITY, Philippines The sugar and business process outsourcing (BPO) industries may end up as casualties of a Philippine "separation" from the United States as declared by President Duterte in his recent state visit to Beijing, Sen. Juan Miguel Zubiri told reporters here Friday.
He said that in such a scenario, the Philippines may lose up to $25 billion in revenues annually, with about 1. 1 million Filipinos losing their jobs.
http://www.philstar.com/headlines/2016/10/23/1636454/sugar-bpo-industries-may-end-casualties
Duterte likely does have some legitimate complaints about the US. The massacre of Moros really did occur, though about 100 years ago, and the US did force the Philippines to provide special concessions--many of which still exist--for US agricultural companies. His point about the US never going to war with China over the Philippines is also true, as is the fact that--aside from the Marcos era--the US has not provided assistance in constructing desperately needed infrastructure.South Korea was in the shitter after the war and under a brutal dictator (ultimately assassinated). Weird as it sounds, you can have good (Park) and bad (Marcos) dictators. While chaebols (oligarchs) were favored and now dominate their economy, they were required to "donate" assets to the government during Park Chung-hee reign.
South Korea GDP 1960: $3. 9 1970: $9. 4 1980: $67.8.
Philippines GDP 1960: $6. 7 1970: $6. 7 1980: $32.5.
http://data.worldbank.org/?locations=PH-KR
The Koreans played up their nationalism making sure they supported their own industries, but their capita was used efficiently and reinvested into their infrastructure (Seoul's subway started in the early 70's). Additionally, their ability to control their population was a benefit (not as religious of a country).
Conversely, 49% of all OFW remittances stem from the US, and US companies dominate the BPO activity here, without which tens of thousands of Filipinos wouldn't have decent jobs. It's highly doubtful that the Chinese are going to open their borders to Filipino OFWs or that they will establish much in the way of BPO networks.I think the US number in the BPO is in the hundred of thousands (total BPO jobs are over a million).
What I will never understand, even after spending so long a time here, is why the country's lack of development is always ascribed to external factors. Other regional players--Thailand and Vietnam to name two--have implemented some truly visionary development plans, and have found means to secure the financing for those plans. Singapore of course is in a class of its own. But here, it appears that funding is always the responsibility of another country, the the question becomes "who will fill my begging bowl?" This country is the"Trump" of ASEAN, forever blaming others and never, but never acknowledging its own shortcomings.
Seems like PH and TH were about the same until the mid 80's. Failed opportunities throughout many years.
http://data.worldbank.org/?locations=PH-TH
GoodEnough
10-23-16, 06:31
Just saw the $9 Billion list of projects developed during the meetings between China and the Philippines. While I know these are early days, and it takes months--and sometimes years--to develop comprehensive project designs, the list seems fairly tepid to me: http://business.inquirer.net/217269/itemized-list-ph-projects-covered-chinas-15-b-investment-pledges-duterte.
There doesn't appear to be anything that will address mass transit needs in Metro Manila, nor--aside from two ports projects--anything for Mindanao or the Visayas. There's also no mention of building new airports or upgrading ground equipment, and the rumored Davao-CDO rail link isn't mentioned, though there is a railway study for an unspecified route. There appears to be a commitment to build a Clark-Subic railway, though given the two points are only about 45 minutes apart by road, I can't quite understand the need for a railroad. Nothing on refurbishing the Clark airport, much less NAIA, or building a new airport.
I think the "Golden Age" of Philippine infrastructure won't be dawning for quite a while yet, and when and if it does, other ASEAN countries will have proceeded with the implementation of moore visionary, home-grown and self-financed development plans.
GE.
Seems like PH and TH were about the same until the mid 80's. Failed opportunities throughout many years.
http://data.worldbank.org/?locations=PH-THInevitably the stagnation under the kleptocracy could not last forever. In recent years I saw feeble signs of encouragement to place a small wager on a possible future windfall from investment here. Death squads and prostration to China wasn't in that picture. I was wrong, losing bet.
There is a whole generation of young better informed folks here who desperately want something better for their country. Their frustration is palpable. When reality in the form of declining economic conditions boils over it is not going to be pretty. This not like the past, marching off to EDSA isn't going to dislodge this Fascist. Watching with horror as the police drove vehicles over civilians in Manila last week is just a hint of what is to come.
GoodEnough
10-23-16, 07:28
Speculating on ramifications of Dutertopia. Make of it what you will. From my perspective Philippines will become China's gravel pit & temporary source of cheaper labor with long term economic damage. This combined with escalating state sanctioned murder and rising anti western sentiment I have believe it is prudent to activate contingency plans.
BACOLOD CITY, Philippines The sugar and business process outsourcing (BPO) industries may end up as casualties of a Philippine "separation" from the United States as declared by President Duterte in his recent state visit to Beijing, Sen. Juan Miguel Zubiri told reporters here Friday.
He said that in such a scenario, the Philippines may lose up to $25 billion in revenues annuallyLet's not forget that, pending the outcomes of the November elections, the US Congress is dominated by right wing, quasi-nationalistic politicians and there are already rumblings of retaliation for the Philippines ostensible "defection. " It's not beyond the limits of possibility that part of that retaliation could involve strictly limiting the number of Filipino OFWs permitted into the country. Depending on the extent of the reduction, if it occurs, that would be devastating to this fragile economy and to the amount of foreign exchange pouring in here from the US. If the US Government decided to get really nasty, it could also put pressure on its allies in the EU and Saudi to impose similar restrictions. This may not be likely, but it is plausible and some members of the Senate a seriously pissed off.
As to contingency plans, I don't think it's time to panic quite yet though I am planning to make a quick trip to Bangkok next month to see if the waters look any more welcoming there.
GE.
FreebieFan
10-24-16, 01:45
A lot have businesses have moved out of China as labor costs have risen a lot there. Most of the business, especially garment factories, have moved to Vietnam, Cambodia and Bangladesh. Intel moved out of the Philippines to Vietnam a few years ago.In Asia over the past 30 years there has been a lot of companies who have located to one country, enjoyed it, then seen it sour due to costs, problems or labour relations. Many have moved to Philippines, and have thereafter moved out. Labour laws, the right to form unions and the somewhat strong forms that unions take in Philippines have seen many companies move in and out. Nike tried it twice and twcie it left as the strength of unions made it more expensive and more difficult than other countries. Chinese unions are puppet unions and I can suspect that any large chinese companies moving here would have an equally hard time with unions. The End of endo will also have a knock on effect of increasing labour costs. There certainly will be some companies who will start (once they have negotiated the 60 days ordeal of setting up a company in Philippines) but how long they will stay is anyones guess.
Just saw the $9 Billion list of projects developed during the meetings between China and the Philippines. While I know these are early days, and it takes months--and sometimes years--to develop comprehensive project designs, the list seems fairly tepid to me: http://business.inquirer.net/217269/itemized-list-ph-projects-covered-chinas-15-b-investment-pledges-duterte.
GE.Agree, very disappointing showing for all the chest beating rhetoric. The Chinese have done him like a Sunday roast.
FreebieFan
10-24-16, 04:15
Agree, very disappointing showing for all the chest beating rhetoric. The Chinese have done him like a Sunday roast.I think we are starting to see a trend with this fellow. Lots of chest beating, lots of noise, lots of " its them against us " and not a lot else.
Businesses there are starting to see a less than stellar outcome with his daily pronouncements and its quite possible he will very quickly lose his support except from the diehards, and his fellow blowhards.
The opinion polls with their approval ratings will tell their own story in the next few months.
The more you talk, the more you need to back it up with action. Ask a Filipino what NATO means.
They've heard it seen it and experienced it over and over again with politicians who promised the world, but were only only a able to deliver a grain of sand.
Let's not forget that, pending the outcomes of the November elections, the US Congress is dominated by right wing, quasi-nationalistic politicians and there are already rumblings of retaliation for the Philippines ostensible "defection. " It's not beyond the limits of possibility that part of that retaliation could involve strictly limiting the number of Filipino OFWs permitted into the country. Depending on the extent of the reduction, if it occurs, that would be devastating to this fragile economy and to the amount of foreign exchange pouring in here from the US. If the US Government decided to get really nasty, it could also put pressure on its allies in the EU and Saudi to impose similar restrictions. This may not be likely, but it is plausible and some members of the Senate a seriously pissed off.Yes indeed GE, the next US administration looks likely to be very hawkish under Killary. Let us not forget, Obama's 'pivot' in SEA was all Killary's work. I assume she and her congress will be only to happy to play hard ball. I wouldn't want to be in Drumpf's shoes when she comes for him. Tatay 'turte is exploiting a temporary power vacuum and will likely come to regret his temerity.
As to contingency plans, I don't think it's time to panic quite yet though I am planning to make a quick trip to Bangkok next month to see if the waters look any more welcoming there.
GE.Please don't misunderstand GE, we are far from panic. That would involve grabbing cash, passport, fully flexible air ticket & heading for the nearest airport in the clothes you're standing in.
Contingency plans follow a cascade. Phase one, pick up the phone and start an orderly process of quietly liquidating major assets has begun. I have no great spiritual connection with the condo in Pampanga despite its ostentatious luxury compared to most folks. I aim to be divested of it all interests in Pampanga by June with a window of +/- 3 months depending on circumstances. I will continue to monitor developments but not hopeful. My place in ZDN I will hold and be prepared to take the risk of losing it. For me this will be the hardest to leave as it represents freedom and peace. I can base myself in ZDN whilst I over see the phased withdrawal. Frankly I feel less uneasy away from the cities now.
I smile ruefully to my self as I recall how, five or six years ago, I was planning to resettle in Singers or somewhere but changed my mind (too many rules) and here I am a victim of circumstance. Where to next? For the first time in my life, I don't know.
I think we are starting to see a trend with this fellow. Lots of chest beating, lots of noise, lots of " its them against us " and not a lot else.
Businesses there are starting to see a less than stellar outcome with his daily pronouncements and its quite possible he will very quickly lose his support except from the diehards, and his fellow blowhards.
The opinion polls with their approval ratings will tell their own story in the next few months.
The more you talk, the more you need to back it up with action. Ask a Filipino what NATO means.
They've heard it seen it and experienced it over and over again with politicians who promised the world, but were only only a able to deliver a grain of sand.On the face of it you're right FF. But this fellow is no clown Estrada or playboy Aquino. This guy, in the truest sense of the word, is a psychopath. Factor in his very obvious overtures to the AFP & PNP. The best outcome would be he flames out before he garners too much loyalty from the military & doing to much economic damage. Alternatively we could be in for a long slow decline until overthrow. The worst case, frankly I don't want to be around for. In the medical profession young doctors are told "usually the first diagnosis you think of is the correct one". My gut tells me it's going to bloody this time. Hope I'm wrong in all sincerity.
GoodEnough
10-24-16, 08:11
AV, I know you've developed what you consider a reasonable perspective, and you're going to act on it. While I understand the reasons that lie behind your opinion, I'm not yet at the point of sharing it. One reason for that is that I know a few of his cabinet members who are neither psychopathic nor stupid, and I've had some discussions with them. Second, despite the bluster, the condemnations and the profanity the fact is that there have been no communications sent to the US State Department that would fundamentally alter the relationship between the two countries. Thus, US troops remain in Mindanao, the VFA remains in effect, EDCA remains in effect, and on the official front all is as it was before. Could this change? Sure. But I've got no indication that it will.
Aside from a couple of cars and a few dollars in a local account, I've got no real property investment (nor while I ever have) in this country. Thus, being willing to write off the cars, I could be out of here with bags packed in a day if necessary. My only envisioned next stage is, as I've said, a 7-10 day visit to Thailand, with maybe another to Cambodia in January, to see--if I need to land there--if the landing will be a soft one. As things now stand however, I see no need to leave, though I confess to a mild unease.
My worry is not that things will turn bloody, but that he's created the potential for a wave of mindless anti-Americanism, could turn easily into a more encompassing wave of anti-Westernism, and that would make life uncomfortable for me here. Perhaps intolerably so. My closest Filipino friends are highly educated, well informed, and as uneasy as I am about the possible repercussions. I look on them collectively as a sort of early warning system.
GE.
On the face of it you're right FF. But this fellow is no clown Estrada or playboy Aquino. This guy, in the truest sense of the word, is a psychopath. Factor in his very obvious overtures to the AFP & PNP. The best outcome would be he flames out before he garners too much loyalty from the military & doing to much economic damage. Alternatively we could be in for a long slow decline until overthrow. The worst case, frankly I don't want to be around for. In the medical profession young doctors are told "usually the first diagnosis you think of is the correct one". My gut tells me it's going to bloody this time. Hope I'm wrong in all sincerity.Dude. You are overestimating how quickly business can flow in and out (tangible economic impact). Even with all the deals announced with China (and that's if they are on the level) won't have any real positive impact for a few years. Conversely, it will take BPO companies several years to diversify / divest their labor portfolio here. The BPO companies will probably slow the growth (adding new employees), but negative growth will take some time.
IMO, D30 is taking the low hanging fruit right now. It makes big noise and he looks good to the mostly uneducated population in PH. The drug "war" is getting a good PR bang, but eventually the public will lose their attention span and move on to the next thing. The real test is in 1-2 years and seeing if there are any actual changes in people's salaries and job opportunities. (we probably know the answer to that already.).
My worry is not that things will turn bloody, but that he's created the potential for a wave of mindless anti-Americanism, could turn easily into a more encompassing wave of anti-Westernism, and that would make life uncomfortable for me here. Perhaps intolerably so. My closest Filipino friends are highly educated, well informed, and as uneasy as I am about the possible repercussions. I look on them collectively as a sort of early warning system.
GE.GE, clearly I declaim the bloodshed strenuously and am much vexed by the potential for it to escalate. My main concern however, as one who has swum with the sharks here, is exactly as you put it. Frankly, it's tough enough doing business here as a round eye already. The prospect of Chinese et al arriving here in even greater numbers with the full blessing and legal support of the administration and the locals embracing escalating anti western sentiments is just too much for me. You hit the nail on the head squarely. For me, better an orderly tactical retreat than a Custers last stand, business wise.
The canary in the coal mine for me is my network of well educated Filipinos. It's not uncommon for them to be a bit superficial about politics, often just echoing populist lines until pushed a little to analyse a little deeper. Atypically, they are now coming to me and, unprompted, quietly voicing well analysed concerns. Gone is the usual jocularity and sense of fun.
The next six months is going to busy & interesting.
Dude. You are overestimating how quickly business can flow in and out (tangible economic impact). Even with all the deals announced with China (and that's if they are on the level) won't have any real positive impact for a few years. Conversely, it will take BPO companies several years to diversify / divest their labor portfolio here. The BPO companies will probably slow the growth (adding new employees), but negative growth will take some time.
IMO, D30 is taking the low hanging fruit right now. It makes big noise and he looks good to the mostly uneducated population in PH. The drug "war" is getting a good PR bang, but eventually the public will lose their attention span and move on to the next thing. The real test is in 1-2 years and seeing if there are any actual changes in people's salaries and job opportunities. (we probably know the answer to that already.).I think that is a very reasonable proposition R99. I wouldn't take issue with your analysis under normal circumstances. Current economic datum are presently based on Aquino government historically. Inflation figures hint at already slowing economy pre Duterte. External factors are at play additionally. Not a great time to start pissing off trade partners all in all. I'm guessing the political picture will deteriorate quicker than the available economic data.
A well researched oped calling into question Duterte's claims (not that will make any difference to his populist following).
"In Davao City, where Duterte was mayor for 22 years, he led an equally brutal anti-drugs crackdown. There, death squads killed hundreds of alleged drug dealers, petty criminals and street children, said Human Rights Watch in a 2009 report. Duterte denied any involvement in the killings.
Despite the crackdown, Davao still ranks first among 15 cities in the Philippines for murder and second for sexual assault, according to police crime data from 2010 to 2015. ".
http://news.abs-cbn.com/focus/10/24/16/2-dead-cops-daily-and-other-dubious-data-in-du30s-war-on-drugs
GoodEnough
10-25-16, 13:36
GE, clearly I declaim the bloodshed strenuously and am much vexed by the potential for it to escalate. My main concern however, as one who has swum with the sharks here, is exactly as you put it. Frankly, it's tough enough doing business here as a round eye already. The prospect of Chinese et al arriving here in even greater numbers with the full blessing and legal support of the administration and the locals embracing escalating anti western sentiments is just too much for me. You hit the nail on the head squarely. For me, better an orderly tactical retreat than a Custers last stand, business wise.
The canary in the coal mine for me is my network of well educated Filipinos. It's not uncommon for them to be a bit superficial about politics, often just echoing populist lines until pushed a little to analyse a little deeper. Atypically, they are now coming to me and, unprompted, quietly voicing well analysed concerns. Gone is the usual jocularity and sense of fun.
The next six months is going to busy & interesting.I've pretty well closed out my business here, though it still exists on paper, and barring unforeseen events, I've got no thoughts of re-starting it. My decision however was made pre-Duterte and had more to do with the endless crap you have to put up with and some other factors not worth going into. I'm older now, and the energy required versus the return simply wasn't worth it to me any more. Even if I don't leave because of Duterte, I now worry that I might die of boredom.
As I've said before, I've got no thought of imminent permanent exit, but I'm going to develop (I hope) some alternatives over the next few months. Somewhat related to my unease, I watched an interview today with outgoing US Ambassador Goldberg, who, while diplomatic, was refreshingly frank about the ambiguities surrounding Duterte's grand pronouncements and his cabinet's immediately walking them back. Evidently, the American-Philippines traditions calls for the outgoing US Ambassador to receive some sort of award from the Government of the Philippines immediately prior to his leaving. Goldberg is not receiving the award, and may be the first US Ambassador to have been denied it. When asked by his interlocutor whether he was angry about this he responded that he would rather leave with his integrity intact than with an award. I thought that this was unusually frank for a diplomat, and expressive of a certain disdain for Duterte.
Regarding the immediacy of economic impacts of the new Chinese connections and the possibility of US businesses withdrawing from the country, I agree that it's far too early to expect to see anything soon. This will take months, and perhaps longer to play out. Likewise with any ramifications of the forthcoming state visit to Japan, where Duterte will also go, hat in hand. He wants the Japanese to "help" build a Mindanao railroad; a great idea that would take years to construct if it ever happens. Doubtless he will return touting dozens of new projects, new initiatives and the billions of dollars Japanese businesses have shown a willingness to invest here.
Given the amount of time it takes to engineer, analyze and build large infrastructure, my best guess is that a few major projects--assuming the availability of external funding--may get started during this administration, but likely won't be completed. Whether this will be sufficient to appease the masses is unknown.
As indicated in prior posts, if I get to feeling overly uncomfortable here, I'll leave though it won't be without some profound regrets.
GE.
Member #4698
10-25-16, 17:00
I thought this report was interesting and throws some historical perspective on Duterte's swing towards China. "His tirades against America fit into resentment that has long been a staple of Philippine politics. The former dictator Ferdinand Marcos often spouted anti-USA Rhetoric, and even threatened to play the Soviet card against his Cold War USA Ally from time to time to try to extract more military aid and economic benefits. ".
"The old joke in Manila is that Filipinos endured three centuries living in a Spanish convent and five decades in Hollywood. Don't imagine they want to move in with China now, regardless of Mr. Duterte's apparent change of direction. ".
"Washington's strategy seems to be to stay calm in the face of Mr. Duterte's provocations, say as little as possible and hope he goes away. "
Here is the full report. http://www.wsj.com/articles/dutertes-fling-with-china-could-prove-fleeting-1477382386.
While it might work in certain situations, but looks like the drug "war" wasn't planned very well. Ugh, almost like invading Iraq and then realizing we are the occupying force with no plan.
Looks like D30 is trying to pass the buck on this one and make sure he's not the only one accountable. I hope these politicians are smart enough to distance themselves from this no win situation.
http://www.philstar.com/headlines/2016/10/26/1637474/rody-seek-congress-consensus-drug-menace
GoodEnough
10-26-16, 02:08
I was listening last night to an official from the Philippines speaking about the hopes for the outcome of Duterte's state visit to Tokyo. I was struck again how the exclusive focus was "what can we get from this?" How much additional bilateral aid? How much in additional investments? These speeches never seem to include what the Philippines can offer to other countries. I always thought that alliances were all about bilateral synergy for mutual benefit: how two sides can complement each other's needs, be they economic or security-related. In the case of the Philippines however, the stress seems always a one-way street: a "You give and we take" relationship. Where's the quid pro quo here? In the case of augmenting defensive capabilities (security) this country has nothing to offer aside from whatever armaments have been donated or sold cheaply by other countries. In the case of economic development, I've read little or nothing about increasing Philippines investments in Japan or China, and surely not in the US.
I wonder sometimes if this concept of unilateral benefits ever enters into the psyches of the Filipinos so enamored of their president and if they're ever embarrassed by the continued demand for additional support.
GE.
Wicked Roger
10-26-16, 03:05
I was listening last night to an official from the Philippines speaking about the hopes for the outcome of Duterte's state visit to Tokyo. I was struck again how the exclusive focus was "what can we get from this?" How much additional bilateral aid? How much in additional investments? These speeches never seem to include what the Philippines can offer to other countries. I always thought that alliances were all about bilateral synergy for mutual benefit: how two sides can complement each other's needs, be they economic or security-related. In the case of the Philippines however, the stress seems always a one-way street: a "You give and we take" relationship. Where's the quid pro quo here? In the case of augmenting defensive capabilities (security) this country has nothing to offer aside from whatever armaments have been donated or sold cheaply by other countries. In the case of economic development, I've read little or nothing about increasing Philippines investments in Japan or China, and surely not in the US.
I wonder sometimes if this concept of unilateral benefits ever enters into the psyches of the Filipinos so enamored of their president and if they're ever embarrassed by the continued demand for additional support.
GE.This is the case for many ordinary folks IMHO. Many think what can they get. As for what can be offered the Church (well one bishop) said the country should be proud of the over population as meant it could provide the world with DHs! Some export!
A friend of mine who spent many years in Manila and had his own company once said to me "how can the country be proud when the main exports are pussy and DHs!
The country needs so much investment I doubt much will be completed in 6 years. Previous admins have neglected, abused and been corrupt on the matter that one term is not enough IMHO to resolve.
PNoy came in 2010,he and his team knew all about the power crisis and other infrastructure problems. What did he and his cronies do? Nothing so at least someone is doning something as the country has no real capital so has to beg IMHO and beggars can't be chosen and those giving also know this. Plus the US which says it was 'alarmed' by earlier visits to China by Cateyano will only place restrictions etc.
It is a mess GE and it is a hard one to clean up IMHO.
GoodEnough
10-26-16, 05:08
This is the case for many ordinary folks IMHO. Many think what can they get.
PNoy came in 2010,he and his team knew all about the power crisis and other infrastructure problems. What did he and his cronies do? Nothing so at least someone is doning something as the country has no real capital so has to beg IMHO and beggars can't be chosen and those giving also know this. Plus the US which says it was 'alarmed' by earlier visits to China by Cateyano will only place restrictions etc.But why, among all of the major ASEAN countries does this seem to be the only one incapable of envisioning, planning for and implementing its own development strategies? Thailand--with a level of corruption at least equal to this place--managed, on its own, to build a new airport, construct god knows how many elevated highways, building a monorail urban transport system and build a subway, and all within the space of 10-15 years. Vietnam is investing tens of millions of dollars in improving its air transport system, and Malaysia has turned KL into a first world city. Even Cambodia seems to have begun to shake off its torpor and begun constructing needed infrastructure without humiliating itself in the process. It too will likely leave this place in its dust.
Vietnam, Thailand and Malaysia all have relatively small, but well equipped armed forces, with modern equipment and armaments. This place has almost nothing except a few cast-off ships and one or two frigates. For an archipelagic country, this seems like nothing short of amazing. Now I see some complaining that the 5 or 6 C130 cargo planes provided by the US are "used," though the US "sold" these planes to the Philippines at bargain basement prices after writing off about 45% of the cost through military assistance funds. Again, Filipinos appear to think they were somehow entitled to newer planes for the same cost. Where the hell does this sense of beggar's entitlement come from?
As to having "no real capital," I don't believe it's true. Thanks to the massive influx of OFW remittances this place has ample foreign reserves and a high credit rating. Just like other countries, it could borrow the necessary financing at fairly low rates and the ROI from the projects would likely provide sufficient revenue to pay off the loans.
I've spent years--both by virtue of grad-school training and life experience--trying to understand the socio-cultural dynamics of countries that are not my own. Yet after more than a decade, the lack of vision and lack of societal responsibility continues to amaze me. It cannot be explained by corruption alone but identifying the other variables and their perpetuation from generation to generation continues to elude me.
GE.
USA diplomat is shocked RP had advance talks with China! With does he think diplomats do? Or advance teams talk about? Are we all so naive to think that agreements are produced overnight?
Congrats to Philippines for their trade agreements.
I said I was going to take a break from posting here but can't resist saying something about the situation here for me in Manila right now.
I just watched Du30's speech in Japan and it was a sensible, reasoned one that made a lot of sense and tended to rebuke a lot of the hysteria being conjured up in the press.
I certainly don't experience this "mess" that some posters are talking about inn the Philippines.
I travelled almost the full length of EDSA yesterday and noticed how new lanes and better planning made the trip so much less stressful.
I have been through NAIA Terminals 1, 2 and 3 in the past 3 weeks and I am amazed at the smoother arrangements, the up-dated facilities and the speed with which I was treated. All planes left on time (in fact, my Cebu Pacific flight arrived 25 minutes before scheduled time; work that one out!
There has not been a single power-break in my condo for at least 2 years.
My internet works very well and reliably and is fast enough for me and my business needs.
I have been to 2 "latest-release" movies in the past 3 days; in a modern and cooled cinema.
Several new restaurant outlets have opened within 100 meters of my condo. I am excited to try them out.
I just stopped by my favorite coffee shop and enjoyed an hour of peaceful meditating as I sipped my brew.
Maybe I'm lucky? I tend to disregard all the commentaries and merely reflect what is my experience.
I am perfectly comfortable living where I do.
I have no fear of there being some sweeping tide of nationalistic fervor that will have Filipinos persecuting those of us with white faces, whether they belong to Americans, Aussies, Brits or Europeans. The reverence towards the so-called "West" is extremely strong in the Philippines, and it will take one or perhaps 2 generations or more before there is any shift in the critical mass of favoritism towards non-pinoy residents.
For me, life is good, and I cannot see any greener grass on the other side of any nearby fences.
For me, life is good, and I cannot see any greener grass on the other side of any nearby fences.Exactly my thoughts. Well said, Red.
I was listening last night to an official from the Philippines speaking about the hopes for the outcome of Duterte's state visit to Tokyo. I was struck again how the exclusive focus was "what can we get from this?" How much additional bilateral aid? How much in additional investments? These speeches never seem to include what the Philippines can offer to other countries. This is an excellent observation. I'll add it isn't just the Filipinos who have such an outlook and expectation. I suspect responsibility rests in part with those in the economically advanced nations who have nurtured this entitled attitude of dependency. "We're obliged to take care of you. " If one has his hand out, and money keeps being put in it, where's the motivation to put that hand to work?
It seems to me the one and only reason posters are upset with President Dutere is the EJK. So upset that they can not give him proper credit for other advances.
On my recent trip to RP no Filipino has expressed any displeasure over EJK or any other Dutere initiatives or accomplishments. Most Filipinos are more hopeful than ever before.
The US Obama administration was caught flatfoot and instead of using diplomacy started a rant of words. Maybe as a diversion from failed policies and human rights in other areas.
GoodEnough
10-26-16, 09:41
This is an excellent observation. I'll add it isn't just the Filipinos who have such an outlook and expectation. I suspect responsibility rests in part with those in the economically advanced nations who have nurtured this entitled attitude of dependency. "We're obliged to take care of you. " If one has his hand out, and money keeps being put in it, where's the motivation to put that hand to work?Maybe, however having worked pretty much throughout the world in developing countries, I've not seen the same sort of mentality so prolifically displayed.
GE.
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