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Best investment as Mark Twain said, Buy land, they're not making it anymore.
What about buying Land in Russia with the Inevitable regime change there!
"Russia is an ideal country for farming business, mostly because the land is still very cheap. Foreigners have already purchased about 5 million hectares of agricultural land in Russia, and there are many reasons for this:
The cost of 1 acre of Russian land is several times cheaper than the price of 1 acre in South America or even in Africa."The more things change in Russia, the more they stay the same.
Buying into Russian land, you're also buying into Russian lawlessness, mind-blowing corruption and the lack of basic human rights. Every low-level administrator will hold an overwhelming power over you, unless you have the funds to buy their loyalty.
And god forbid you become successful one day. That's the worst thing that can happen to you in Russia.
Google "raider attacks".
https://www.ft.com/content/b2d2d226-791f-11e7-a3e8-60495fe6ca71
Well, it's not like we have a choice, unless you want to convert your dollars into diamonds and wear them in a little bag hanging around your neck. Or join the procession opening bank accounts in Panama, or start buying aquifers.I could make like an oligarch and open a bank account in Switzerland, the Caymans, or similar location and make deposits in any currency they're willing to accept. And, for US citizens, I've seen guidelines for opening non-resident accounts in both Canada and Mexico. I also lived in a Middle Eastern country for a number of years and had the opportunity (which I declined) to open a local account, denominated in that nation's currency.
I don't claim to have exhaustively researched any of those options, for the simple reason that I'm happy to stick with the US dollar. I'm just making the point that, for anyone so inclined, there are options available other than precious stones or metals.
Russia displays its tanks in a competition called Tank Olympics (or Tank Biathalon). There's videos. It's good watching. Look and see how the tanks from various countries compare. Not battle conditions obviously.
The rap against US armament is expensive maintenance, among other things. There's also a substantial literature on this. But until there's actual battlefield conditions, there's no way to know.I have no doubt the Russians are able to put on a good show, as I'm sure the tank crews and mechanics understand that a good performance is needed to keep their next posting from being someplace in remotest Siberia. But (and I'm not an expert on the topic) I've seen quite a few analyses pointing out that the Russian Battle Tactical Group (BTG) generally has fewer personnel allocated to logistics than its American counterpart. And that issue was exacerbated by Putin's arrogance in assuming his army would only need a short time to achieve victory.
Complicated weapons systems that require expensive maintenance are certainly an issue, but the answer is to have a battle plan that ensures sufficient resources to repair or replace. I completely agree that there's no substitute for experience on the battlefield, and I'm sure every military command in the world, US included, is examining every scrap of information coming out of Ukraine under a high-powered microscope. One clear takeaway is that relatively inexpensive systems, like drones and shoulder-fired anti-tank weapons (Javelin, NLAW, etc.), have dramatically impacted battlefield dynamics.
I don't remember people choosing Sadaam Hussein and the Taliban. That's self-determination, pardner.Saddam and the Afghani Muhjahaddim / Taliban were chosen and put into power by your Uncle Shmuel. That's blowback, son. Apparently you don't remember much.
Again, I stress that these are unconfirmed rumors at this time, but they're certainly something to keep a watch for over the next few days.
1. Defense Minister Gen. Shoigu has suffered a massive heart attack. He's reportedly alive but in hospital intensive care. Also, 20 other Russian generals have reportedly been arrested.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10718247/Putins-defence-minister-Sergei-Shoigu-massive-heart-attack-not-natural-causes.html
2. Admiral Igor Osipov, Commander of the Black Sea Fleet, has reportedly been arrested (and his adjutant badly beaten).
https://mobile.twitter.com/IsraelThreads/status/1514694443345092611?cxt=HHwWhoC97cWko4UqAAAA
This Tweet is in Russian so you'll need to use your favorite translation method.
If these turn out to be true, or even one of them, it's indicative of purges at the highest levels and a continued cracking of the system. And it's my fervent hope that it all comes crashing down on pseudo-Tsar Putin's head.
Neurosynth
04-15-22, 07:37
I apologise, we haven't taken any pictures. It just hasn't been our main focus since we've been here. I will make an effort on Wednesday to take a picture close to the motherland monument.
In regards to the statement: "I've never been in a place that's racist to white people before."
I am more relaxed and logical now. Basically because I know I will be leaving Kyiv soon and I admit the statement above was an over emotional one.
…
I do admit it saddened me to be called a troll and a liar. I however understand what would make you guys think that. I am a lurker, I read and don't contribute. However I will change that, I will start posting more and contributing value to the forums. I have been to Ukraine many times and this website has been a great resource, Kyiv is a wonderful place as I am sure we all know. Once wartime is over, I am sure things will go back to normal. As long as the Russians don't shell everything to dust.So no "I made it home" post?
We all want to find out who will be The Ultimate Winners in The Ukraine Coflict, don't we?
According to this analysis in the respected Financial Times," The US will be the ultimate winner of Ukraine's crisis.
America stands to gain in stature and influence in Europe, Asia and the court of world opinion."
Written by https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Janan_Ganesh.
Of course it's all a matter of Opinions and we all have more than one.
"Janan Ganesh is a biweekly columnist and associate editor for the FT. He writes on American politics for the FT and culture for FT Weekend.
Following the end of WW 2, 'The United States had more money than they could spend, more food than they could eat, more steel than they could use, more clothes than they could ever wear' (World At War ep. 25,1975.) Following European conflicts, it would appear the US makes out pretty well.
Saddam and the Afghani Muhjahaddim / Taliban were chosen and put into power by your Uncle Shmuel. Don't know who you mean by Uncle Shmuel! But we know ABU YAER was very popular with Congress.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Jgmds5FIM4g
Netanyahu versus Abu Yair https://www.ynetnews.com/article/BJHyCvJNu.
"An uninformed visitor to Israel on eve of elections could be forgiven for thinking the PM was running as head of an Arab party due to his efforts to present himself as a lover of the sector."
"We are all with you Abu Yair" LOL.
...........I completely agree that there's no substitute for experience on the battlefield, and I'm sure every military command in the world, US included, is examining every scrap of information coming out of Ukraine under a high-powered microscope. One clear takeaway is that relatively inexpensive systems, like drones and shoulder-fired anti-tank weapons (Javelin, NLAW, etc.), have dramatically impacted battlefield dynamics.The Ukraine military and some NATO members have been training together for several years. The Ukrainians were getting prepared for what now seems like Putin's inevitable aggression.
An interesting quote from am April 13 Wall Street Journal article encapsulates some of the tactical changes: "Soldiers, plus military brass and overseers in parliament, have been transformed from a rigid Soviet-style force into a modern army that thinks on the move." Apparently, NATO was also able to learn from the Ukrainians original Soviet-style thinking.
In addition to changing battlefield dynamics, the Ukrainians are proving out the axiom that the defense has the advantage. Tanks as somewhat large and relatively slow targets might have limited effectiveness against an organized military with modern weaponry.
My fear is that as the longer this drags out Putin will do something crazy out of frustration.
Old age wasn't a handicap then, but old age & apparent senility encourages even Old Allies to take the piss out of Politics by Joe President, LOL.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=WOhcCPqc4pkNow he's shaking hands with Thin Air!!
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=_59agcnLAj4
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=zB0W91E3XOU
President Joe Biden has made a "howler" of a gaffe during his State of the Union speech – mistaking Ukrainians for "Iranians".
First of all I wanted to give my support to the people of Ukraine and especially the men and women serving in the military and fighting the Russian war machine of Putin. I hope that the Ukrainians will prevail as I have seen them on the internet really giving the Russians a good ass pounding. I hope they regain their independence again and kick the Russians out for good. I also lament I never got to visit Ukraine and meet some of the lovely sex workers over there in the past, guess now I never will. Life is cruel and unfair and that bastard Putin is to blame, he is a real POS.
Now he's shaking hands with Thin Air!!
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=_59agcnLAj4
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=zB0W91E3XOU
President Joe Biden has made a "howler" of a gaffe during his State of the Union speech mistaking Ukrainians for "Iranians".Having a senile POTUS, and a cackling buffoon for a VP has its advantageous: they'll make the ideal dispensable fall guys when the shit hits the fan.
I apologise, we haven't taken any pictures. It just hasn't been our main focus since we've been here. I will make an effort on Wednesday to take a picture close to the motherland monument.
In regards to the statement: "I've never been in a place that's racist to white people before."
I am more relaxed and logical now. Basically because I know I will be leaving Kyiv soon and I admit the statement above was an over emotional one.
I realize now that it's not fair whatsoever to judge people based on how they behave during wartime. I understand perfectly now that during wartime, the native civilians are given priority.
At the time I made the statement, I was extremely stressed and not sleeping well whatsoever. As I have said before we made the wrong decision to come here.
That particular statement came from some situations my group and I experienced.
1. One situation was when we went to purchase some items / seek assistance and we were ignored / brushed aside, while Ukrainians were given preferential treatment...We left Ukraine sometime ago, I'm back home in Berlin. Far away from the war and Russia's madness.
First of all I wanted to give my support to the people of Ukraine and especially the men and women serving in the military and fighting the Russian war machine of Putin. I hope that the Ukrainians will prevail as I have seen them on the internet really giving the Russians a good ass pounding. I hope they regain their independence again and kick the Russians out for good. I also lament I never got to visit Ukraine and meet some of the lovely sex workers over there in the past, guess now I never will. Life is cruel and unfair and that bastard Putin is to blame, he is a real POS.Looking at the current state of affairs, it very much looks like Putin won't achieve his original goal of taking over Ukraine. It remains to be seen whether he'll be able to hold more Ukrainian territory than previously or will be forced to retreat to the pre-Feb 24th borders (or further).
But at some point, hopefully not too long in the future, there will be an end to active hostilities at least in the western areas and likely also in Kyiv and surrounding areas. When that happens, it's my guess there will be some kind of Marshall Plan put in place. If that's the case, money will come flooding in to the areas where Western govt reps and NGOs are based. Many refugees will be returning and a lot of them will voluntarily relocate to those areas. For one reason, their prior homes may no longer be habitable or in safe areas. For another, the money flooding in should create jobs and other opportunities as reconstruction efforts take off.
I'm thinking those hubs of reconstruction activity will attract sex workers as the rest of the country will be too poor (or destroyed) to support them. And it's possible that many of the sex workers will be women who previously worked in non sex-related jobs. Some of them may fall victim to trafficking / coercion, but many will see it as an opportunity to make more money than they otherwise could and thereby rebuild their lives and help their families. While a mongering board probably isn't the best place to moralize, anyone who takes advantage of a woman who isn't free to choose is a reprehensible piece of shit.
And, moving beyond Ukrainian borders, there will be some women who will settle in the country to which they fled, and decide that's the place they want to try to earn a living. Depending on the country and the individual situation, sex work might be their chosen option. It'll be interesting to see where everyone ends up after the dust settles, especially if Ukraine is accepted into the EU (Schengen status?) and residency / citizenship requirements are relaxed for refugees.
Having a senile POTUS, and a cackling buffoon for a VP has its advantageous: they'll make the ideal dispensable fall guys when the shit hits the fan.Touche! Seems like justice is about to catch up with him, as more and more Jan 5 insurgents are directly implicating him in the insurrection. Don't know about the ex-VP, though, since unlike his former boss, he still possessed enough brain matter to avoid breaking the law.
But yeah, the Senile Orange is going down hard. Thank you for bringing it up to our attention.
My fear is that as the longer this drags out Putin will do something crazy out of frustration.I certainly share your concern, but any significant escalation, especially of the crazy variety, will demand an adequate justification, even if it's a fake one. He's already played most of the available conventional warfare cards with Ukraine. What's left? Chemical weapons, tactical nukes, or perhaps drastically ramping up long-distance bombs and missiles? But, even though he could order it on a whim, using any WMD option without a MAJOR (real or pretextual) provocation would almost certainly result in loss of external support (Germany, Hungary, India, and poss China) and internal Russian support from all but his most fervent followers. And he's already pushing most of his conventional chips to the middle of the table. If he starts raining even more missiles on Ukrainian cities, it's my guess Zelensky will start receiving more and more anti-missile systems. If Russian cruise missiles and planes are increasingly intercepted and shot down, Putin will lose even more face than he has already.
Putin's other option is to try to goad a NATO country into crossing one of his imaginary "red lines," but nobody's taking the bait. He can huff and puff all he wants, but if he launches any kind of attack against Poland, the Baltics, the Nordics, etc. , he'll once again be branded the aggressor. And, since his conventional forces have shown themselves to be a joke, NATO could launch a retaliatory strike along conventional lines without crossing any nuke tripwires. Not that policymakers read ISG (or maybe they do?) But I would suggest something like sinking every single Russian naval vessel. Or maybe just every vessel in the Eurasian (Mediterranean, Black Sea, etc.) area. Something proportional, or just above that level, that bloodies his nose or breaks his kneecaps.
Getting back to the pretext problem, with every satellite and SIGINT resource trained on Russia, it's unlikely he can pull off a fake justification without being spotted and exposed. Even his most recent attempt (Ukrainian helo or shelling attack on Russian village) was quickly revealed as a fraud, since no UA forces were within range and a phone call intercept caught a Russian soldier talking about how the attack was being faked by their own forces. The Kremlin can make any claims they want, like they do with Bucha. But nobody believes them and that's likely to be the case if they tried to fake a justification big enough to support a major escalation.
Of course, I don't have a crystal ball, and war is uncertain, but I wanted to point out some potential obstacles Putin would need to overcome.
I certainly share your concern, but any significant escalation, especially of the crazy variety, will demand an adequate justification, even if it's a fake one. He's already played most of the available conventional warfare cards with Ukraine. What's left? Chemical weapons, tactical nukes, or perhaps drastically ramping up long-distance bombs and missiles? But, even though he could order it on a whim, using any WMD option without a MAJOR (real or pretextual) provocation would almost certainly result in loss of external support (Germany, Hungary, India, and poss China) and internal Russian support from all but his most fervent followers. And he's already pushing most of his conventional chips to the middle of the table. If he starts raining even more missiles on Ukrainian cities, it's my guess Zelensky will start receiving more and more anti-missile systems. If Russian cruise missiles and planes are increasingly intercepted and shot down, Putin will lose even more face than he has already..My concern, as I suspect is yours and others, is that Putin is irrational and not in the right mind. If that's the case, hopefully there are rational actors close to him. Assholes nonetheless, but rational to some degree.
Austrian Chancellor Nehammer who recently met with Putin said Putin thinks he's winning the war. Perhaps that's Putin's game face. If Putin actually thinks he's winning the war, perhaps that's a good thing on some level. Maybe we don't want to see what happens when he figures out he is losing the war.
My concern, as I suspect is yours and others, is that Putin is irrational and not in the right mind. If that's the case, hopefully there are rational actors close to him. Assholes nonetheless, but rational to some degree.
Austrian Chancellor Nehammer who recently met with Putin said Putin thinks he's winning the war. Perhaps that's Putin's game face. If Putin actually thinks he's winning the war, perhaps that's a good thing on some level. Maybe we don't want to see what happens when he figures out he is losing the war.I think Putin knows, on a "big picture" level, how bad things are going. He's never been stupid, and I don't subscribe to the irrational or delusional theory. That's because, if he was truly in such a state, that would be seen as mental weakness and, even to those most loyal, unfitness to lead and a danger to Russia.
Consider this: If Putin was irrational (and thought he was winning), it's more likely he would pull forces from Eastern Ukraine to move against Kyiv, rather than the reverse. If he could have taken Kyiv, and killed or captured Zelensky (or caused him to flee), he could have declared victory no matter what happened in the rest of the country. Kyiv and "denazification" success were the big prizes.
That tells me he's rational enough to recognize that Kyiv is out of reach. So now he's desperately trying to find something he can spin as a victory, especially by May 9th, and he's doubling down in the hope that something goes his way. About Putin's meeting with the Austrian Chancellor, he has no choice but to put on a brave face, in the same way that he continues to show false bravado with threats against Sweden, Finland, etc. He's backed himself into a corner, with respect to both internal and external audiences, and currently has no off-ramp or exit.
Putin's biggest problem, and blind spot, is that he is almost certainly in the dark as to how bad things are on a granular level. He won't know, nor will anyone likely have the balls to tell him, how badly corruption has hollowed out his armed forces or how poorly his officers, soldiers, and equipment are performing. And the problem with doubling down is that, if all you have are shitty cards, you can keep playing them but still won't have a winning hand.
Switching to your favorite sports analogy, Putin's in the bottom of the 9th inning, or in extra time of a football match, or at the two-minute warning of an American football game. Options are few, and getting fewer, and time's running short. I can't say I have any great insight as to how things will play out, but here's an article with a few interesting observations and thoughts.
https://geopoliticalfutures.com/time-for-putins-hail-mary-pass/
Looking at the current state of affairs, it very much looks like Putin won't achieve his original goal of taking over Ukraine. It remains to be seen whether he'll be able to hold more Ukrainian territory than previously or will be forced to retreat to the pre-Feb 24th borders (or further).You're confused over the intent of The Special Military Operation. President Putin has been clear from the outset: goal has been to free Ukraine from the fascists and to keep Ukraine neutral. Your confusion is understandable if all you've ingested is mainstream US and Western propaganda masquerading as news.
Will the objectives of the Special Military Operation change? Depends how determined USNato is to fight Russia to the last Ukrainian. So far, Ukraine lives (the Christian ones) aren't worth much to them.
You're confused over the intent of The Special Military Operation. President Putin has been clear from the outset: goal has been to free Ukraine from the fascists and to keep Ukraine neutral. Your confusion is understandable if all you've ingested is mainstream US and Western propaganda masquerading as news.
Will the objectives of the Special Military Operation change? Depends how determined USNato is to fight Russia to the last Ukrainian. So far, Ukraine lives (the Christian ones) aren't worth much to them.The military drive toward Kyiv, and attempts at encirclement, are the real-world facts that demonstrate Putin's intent toward that city, which is the seat of government, and against the Zelensky administration itself. Even accepting your Russo-Puti-philic slant, there's no way to free Ukraine from "fascists" (as Russia self-interestedly defines them) or keep Ukraine "neutral" (I. E. , a Russia-dominated state) without getting rid of Zelensky and installing a pro-Putin puppet. As I posted previously, if Putin had been successful at Kyiv he would have been crowing about it and Russian media would have been cheering their dominance and victory. But, after his army's utter failure and humiliating retreat, Putin is desperate to find a face-saving alternative solution.
As far as Putler's current objectives are concerned, the recent purges taking place in military and FSB circles would certainly seem to indicate that, first and foremost, he's looking to ensure his hold on power. That'll be tricky since his military has racked up notable failure after notable failure and his harshest critics are those who are even more hawkish. Of course, your confusion is understandable if all you've ingested is Russian propaganda-excrement masquerading as regular excrement.
But hey, if LilliPutin needs to make a quick getaway, he could always hitch a ride on the flagship of his Black Sea Fleet, right? Actually, the fate of the Moskva is likely to foreshadow the future of Russia. Poor little Vlad will go down in history as having committed the ultimate geopolitical own-goal!
BTW, the fact that you sidle up to the psyop term "Special Operation" is another clear tell of how far up Putin's nether orifice you are. You really should arrange a meet with Pedro M, IRL. Maybe he could direct some of his "stock of wealth" your way?
PedroMorales
04-18-22, 22:02
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rNizGwjZbo0&ab_channel=GrahamPhillips
I have some reservations about this. Two Brits, two cunts.
Neurosynth
04-19-22, 00:05
You're confused over the intent of The Special Military Operation. President Putin has been clear from the outset: goal has been to free Ukraine from the fascists and to keep Ukraine neutral. Your confusion is understandable if all you've ingested is mainstream US and Western propaganda masquerading as news.
Will the objectives of the Special Military Operation change? Depends how determined USNato is to fight Russia to the last Ukrainian. So far, Ukraine lives (the Christian ones) aren't worth much to them.That you conform closely to the official Kremlin vocabulary is telling.
And what does "(the Christian ones)" mean here? Time to blame the Jews is it? The Jewish Nazis? You think Zelenskyy is a Jewish Nazi?
Presented without comment, the article speaks for itself:
https://tsarizm.com/news/eastern-europe/2022/04/17/russian-ruble-loses-free-convertibility-status/
"The ruble is no longer a freely convertible currency," (former Finance Minister Alexei) Kudrin admitted Tuesday to journalists. Prior to late February, the ruble was one of the world's few dozen fully convertible currencies not even the Chinese renminbi enjoyed such a status, wrote The Bell.
Even Kudrin who is considered to be close to Russian President Vladimir Putin was unable to hide his disappointment. And it was deeply symbolic that it was Kudrin who was the first official to talk publicly about the end of the convertible currency era."
The military drive toward Kyiv, and attempts at encirclement, are the real-world facts that demonstrate Putin's intent toward that city, which is the seat of government, and against the Zelensky administration itself. Even accepting your Russo-Puti-philic slant, there's no way to free Ukraine from "fascists" (as Russia self-interestedly defines them) or keep Ukraine "neutral" (I. E. , a Russia-dominated state) without getting rid of Zelensky and installing a pro-Putin puppet. As I posted previously, if Putin had been successful at Kyiv he would have been crowing about it and Russian media would have been cheering their dominance and victory. But, after his army's utter failure and humiliating retreat, Putin is desperate to find a face-saving alternative solution.
As far as Putler's current objectives are concerned, the recent purges taking place in military and FSB circles would certainly seem to indicate that, first and foremost, he's looking to ensure his hold on power. That'll be tricky since his military has racked up notable failure after notable failure and his harshest critics are those who are even more hawkish. Of course, your confusion is understandable if all you've ingested is Russian propaganda-excrement masquerading as regular excrement.
But hey, if LilliPutin needs to make a quick getaway, he could always hitch a ride on the flagship of his Black Sea Fleet, right? Actually, the fate of the Moskva is likely to foreshadow the future of Russia. Poor little Vlad will go down in history as having committed the ultimate geopolitical own-goal!
BTW, the fact that you sidle up to the psyop term "Special Operation" is another clear tell of how far up Putin's nether orifice you are. You really should arrange a meet with Pedro M, IRL. Maybe he could direct some of his "stock of wealth" your way?Propaganda Street runs both ways. The convoy parked outside Kiev was intended as a feint to keep Ukie troops fixed in place and not moved to the Donbas, you know, military strategy. And now The Comedien has his Ukronazis in Mariupol on no surrender notice: to keep the Z Force in place? Or in hopes they're eliminated and along with them nazism? Time will tell.
That you conform closely to the official Kremlin vocabulary is telling.
And what does "(the Christian ones)" mean here? Time to blame the Jews is it? The Jewish Nazis? You think Zelenskyy is a Jewish Nazi?You haven't been paying attention. The Zionist state extended offer to Ukrainians to relocate to its territories, that is Jewish Ukrainians only. Official Zionist vocabulary.
Propaganda Street runs both ways. The convoy parked outside Kiev was intended as a feint to keep Ukie troops fixed in place and not moved to the Donbas, you know, military strategy. And now The Comedien has his Ukronazis in Mariupol on no surrender notice: to keep the Z Force in place? Or in hopes they're eliminated and along with them nazism? Time will tell.That's like the old PeeWee Herman schtick where he says "I meant to do that" after a huge fall. There's not a single credible military strategist or analyst who believes that, not even in places like Hungary and Serbia that support Russia. What kind of a feint costs thousands of soldiers' lives and hundreds of pieces of irreplaceable equipment? And I say irreplaceable because Russia is having to close military factories that produce tanks and missiles due to lack of components. Thank you Western sanctions!
But hey, if that's what your Kool-Aid drenched brain wants to believe, no worries. If that's a feint, let's have a few more, eh? Then pretty soon we'll have Spetznatz troops in defensive positions around Moscow and the official line will be that the "Special Operation" was a feint to keep foreign troops from marching on Russia.
As far Mariupol is concerned, how many times has Russian propaganda proclaimed "imminent victory" there? It's got to be driving Putin batshit crazy that his pitiful army has been stalled there for so long. As far as no surrender is concerned, any soldier is likely to choose death from a bullet or artillery shell rather than surrender to butchers and animals who are very likely to subject you to torture. And, as far as your "time will tell" comment, I would simply observe that time has been Ukraine's friend and Russia's mortal enemy. With each passing day the noose around Putin's neck tightens while Western aid to Ukraine increases.
If Putin's army fails in Eastern Ukraine as badly as they did in the North, Putin's own war hawks may very well figure out a way to dethrone him. After all, what good is a "strong man" leader who can't perform? Putin's army is in need of some kind of military Viagra, but their prescription's run out, and they have no refills left. Poor, poor, LilliPutin!
Beijing4987
04-19-22, 17:18
Up to 10 available.
That Russia will eventually "win" this war is almost a certainty, size matters.
That Putin survives this "victory" is far from clear, hey, that Russia itself survives is far from clear.
I think Putin knows, on a "big picture" level, how bad things are going. He's never been stupid, and I don't subscribe to the irrational or delusional theory. That's because, if he was truly in such a state, that would be seen as mental weakness and, even to those most loyal, unfitness to lead and a danger to Russia.
Consider this: If Putin was irrational (and thought he was winning), it's more likely he would pull forces from Eastern Ukraine to move against Kyiv, rather than the reverse. If he could have taken Kyiv, and killed or captured Zelensky (or caused him to flee), he could have declared victory no matter what happened in the rest of the country. Kyiv and "denazification" success were the big prizes.
That tells me he's rational enough to recognize that Kyiv is out of reach. So now he's desperately trying to find something he can spin as a victory, especially by May 9th, and he's doubling down in the hope that something goes his way. About Putin's meeting with the Austrian Chancellor, he has no choice but to put on a brave face, in the same way that he continues to show false bravado with threats against Sweden, Finland, etc. He's backed himself into a corner, with respect to both internal and external audiences, and currently has no off-ramp or exit.
Putin's biggest problem, and blind spot, is that he is almost certainly in the dark as to how bad things are on a granular level. He won't know, nor will anyone likely have the balls to tell him, how badly corruption has hollowed out his armed forces or how poorly his officers, soldiers, and equipment are performing. And the problem with doubling down is that, if all you have are shitty cards, you can keep playing them but still won't have a winning hand.
Switching to your favorite sports analogy, Putin's in the bottom of the 9th inning, or in extra time of a football match, or at the two-minute warning of an American football game. Options are few, and getting fewer, and time's running short. I can't say I have any great insight as to how things will play out, but here's an article with a few interesting observations and thoughts.
https://geopoliticalfutures.com/time-for-putins-hail-mary-pass/
..........And, as far as your "time will tell" comment, I would simply observe that time has been Ukraine's friend and Russia's mortal enemy. With each passing day the noose around Putin's neck tightens while Western aid to Ukraine increases.
If Putin's army fails in Eastern Ukraine as badly as they did in the North, Putin's own war hawks may very well figure out a way to dethrone him. After all, what good is a "strong man" leader who can't perform? Putin's army is in need of some kind of military Viagra, but their prescription's run out, and they have no refills left. Poor, poor, LilliPutin!We cannot get any agreement on what is actually happening from Golfinho or Pedro. They are choosing to reiterate Russian media which is now essentially controlled by the government. Doesn't matter that we in the West have no restrictions on speech and we have dissent even on the Ukraine war.
Perhaps if we play out future scenarios and try to nail them down on what would be considered a loss for Russia, we won't have them droning on about Russia's martial capabilities and it prerogatives. Wouldn't Putin being removed from power be a major loss resulting from this conflict? Withdrawal from the Eastern Ukraine? Finland and Sweden joining NATO? A win for Russia would be the removal of almost all sanctions and the occupation of the Eastern Ukraine.
My fear is that Putin's Russia will dig in and occupy the Eastern Ukraine for an extended period and try to destabilize the rest of the country. No winner, no loser. Just stagnation and attrition on both sides. Nothing is resolved. Sanctions maintained indefinitely.
That's like the old PeeWee Herman schtick where he says "I meant to do that" after a huge fall. There's not a single credible military strategist or analyst who believes that, not even in places like Hungary and Serbia that support Russia. What kind of a feint costs thousands of soldiers' lives and hundreds of pieces of irreplaceable equipment? And I say irreplaceable because Russia is having to close military factories that produce tanks and missiles due to lack of components. Thank you Western sanctions!
But hey, if that's what your Kool-Aid drenched brain wants to believe, no worries. If that's a feint, let's have a few more, eh? Then pretty soon we'll have Spetznatz troops in defensive positions around Moscow and the official line will be that the "Special Operation" was a feint to keep foreign troops from marching on Russia.
As far Mariupol is concerned, how many times has Russian propaganda proclaimed "imminent victory" there? It's got to be driving Putin batshit crazy that his pitiful army has been stalled there for so long. As far as no surrender is concerned, any soldier is likely to choose death from a bullet or artillery shell rather than surrender to butchers and animals who are very likely to subject you to torture. And, as far as your "time will tell" comment, I would simply observe that time has been Ukraine's friend and Russia's mortal enemy. With each passing day the noose around Putin's neck tightens while Western aid to Ukraine increases.
The excuse it was a feint was an illustration of propaganda. You bought the feint. See how that works.
This war is just getting started. It took the USA nineteen years to conquer mountain tribals in Afghanistan, and a dozen to have victory with honor over Vietnamese peasants.
That Russia will eventually "win" this war is almost a certainty, size matters.
That Putin survives this "victory" is far from clear, hey, that Russia itself survives is far from clear.The Russians have proclaimed victory in Mariupol more times than Hitler did at Stalingrad. Appears inevitable, but what foreign surprises await when all the rats are finally flushed out.
That Russia will eventually "win" this war is almost a certainty, size matters.
That Putin survives this "victory" is far from clear, hey, that Russia itself survives is far from clear.What would constitute a Russian "win" and what would be a considered a "loss"? A month ago, we were thinking Russia would run over Kiev and topple the Zelensky government.
Simply initiating destruction is not considered a victory in modern war thinking.
A likely outcome is that Russia occupies some Ukrainian territory indefinitely. Is that a "win" if the West rebuilds the rest of the Ukraine better than before and invites them into the European Union? Is it a "win" if Finland and Sweden join NATO?
In most wars, the tragic loss of life and destruction does not usually lead to a better situation. Life will suck for Eastern Ukrainians. However, the Ukraine will emerge as a sovereign nation with a stronger identity.
The excuse it was a feint was an illustration of propaganda. You bought the feint. See how that works.
This war is just getting started. It took the USA nineteen years to conquer mountain tribals in Afghanistan, and a dozen to have victory with honor over Vietnamese peasants.Since this is an anonymous fuckboard, nothing posted here has any real-world effect, none whatsoever. In stark contrast, Russia's belief in its internal propaganda, such as the mistaken idea they would be greeted as liberators in Ukraine, has had the effect of tens of thousands of Russian pawns being unceremoniously swept off the board. Meanwhile, closer to the Black King, a number of bishops and knights have also been removed without Ukrainians needing to set one foot on Russian soil. See how real life works?
And no propaganda, feint, or other device is going to bring back those lost pieces. Neither will they raise the Moskva from its well-deserved place in Davey Jones' Locker. Neither will they restore Russia's lost geopolitical status. Those are irretrievably gone, all of them sacrificed on the altar of Putin's ubermensch fantasy, fed by the Kremlin's non-stop propaganda machine.
Afghanistan? Vietnam? Now you're just being stupid. There is no victory scenario for Russia. Zero, zip, nada. They've already lost and it's just a matter of time before that reality sets in. Real life is a b, ain't it? See how that works?
We cannot get any agreement on what is actually happening from Golfinho or Pedro. They are choosing to reiterate Russian media which is now essentially controlled by the government. Doesn't matter that we in the West have no restrictions on speech and we have dissent even on the Ukraine war.
Perhaps if we play out future scenarios and try to nail them down on what would be considered a loss for Russia, we won't have them droning on about Russia's martial capabilities and it prerogatives. Wouldn't Putin being removed from power be a major loss resulting from this conflict? Withdrawal from the Eastern Ukraine? Finland and Sweden joining NATO? A win for Russia would be the removal of almost all sanctions and the occupation of the Eastern Ukraine.
My fear is that Putin's Russia will dig in and occupy the Eastern Ukraine for an extended period and try to destabilize the rest of the country. No winner, no loser. Just stagnation and attrition on both sides. Nothing is resolved. Sanctions maintained indefinitely.I'm indifferent to the bilge posted by Golfy and Pedrito (or is that perrito?) because their fantasy-based, propaganda-centric musings have no chance when stacked up against reality, facts, and evidence. My main reason for posting is mostly because it's a rollicking exercise to pop their silly bubbles and illustrate just how delusional they are. And it's also my hope that I can perhaps share a few articles and points of information that others in the forum might not yet have seen.
I'm sure you've noticed that, when faced with objective facts such as the sinking of the Moskva, or the rubbleization of the ruble, G & P will shuck and jive, change the subject, or whatever else they can think of to avoid the reality that's slapping them in the face and skewering their BS.
As for how things will play out, that obviously depends on a multitude of variables, some that we know but also others that will only surface over time. But I think it's safe to say that just about every conceivable (and reasonably believable) future scenario will leave Russia worse off than it was before Putin chose to invade. And, by definition, any endpoint in which one has (going back to a chess analogy) lost both material and position cannot be credibly described as a win. That's why I'm confident in my repeated assertion that Russia has already lost. Over time we'll ascertain the magnitude, but the loss itself is a fait accompli.
It's important to note, however, that a loss by Russia doesn't automatically mean a win for Ukraine. There are several plausible lose-lose scenarios so everything will depend on the response of Ukrainians themselves and those countries who step up in support. To that latter point, I'm very heartened by the role being played by some of the less prominent European countries, like Poland, Slovakia, and the Baltics. They're showing remarkable leadership and in many ways shaming their more prominent neighbors into doing more.
So, while it's hard to say if this is the beginning of the end, or merely the end of the beginning, I'm encouraged by how the game is progressing to this point.
Neurosynth
04-20-22, 03:52
You haven't been paying attention. The Zionist state extended offer to Ukrainians to relocate to its territories, that is Jewish Ukrainians only. Official Zionist vocabulary.Israel pointing out the right of return isn't meaningful beyond exactly what it is.
That you want to shift the paradigm away from Putin, and instead pivot to the Jews, is very telling indeed.
That Russia will eventually "win" this war is almost a certainty, size matters.
That Putin survives this "victory" is far from clear, hey, that Russia itself survives is far from clear.What has been shown in this war is that size doesn't matter. Russian military is dominated by armour. Its clear that the armour wasn't successful against Kiev. When you have to meet your enemy on foot in their territory you need significantly larger numbers than the defender as well as good logistic support.
The Russian air force has not even been able to establish air superiority. The Russian military is using dated technology that does not stand up to drones and hand held anti tank and anti aircraft weaponry. In the age of the smart phone there is not a lot of enthusiasm for volunteering to be a grunt that gets their limbs blown off. Not good selfie material hence the low moral.
If the west keeps up sufficient supply of modern weapons then Russia will not be able to hold ground taken. If the west gets bored and tapers its supply Russia will probably grind itself to military victory at the cost of much of its front line armour and aircraft and in 3-4 years the biggest market for its gas gone. Europe (read Germany) has finally worked out that financially supporting Russia is not in their long term interests.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1516464028729679872.html
"Elvira Nabiullina, head of the Central Bank: Logistical blockade hurts even more than financial sanctions. Supply chains are broken."
"Sergei Sobyanin, mayor of Moscow: 200,000 people are at risk of losing jobs in Moscow alone."
"Andrei Belousov, deputy prime minister (this one wasn't reported in the West, but it's crucial): Economic stimulus to fight the crisis without risking further inflation is limited to 7-8 trln rubles and the government has already reached this limit."
When analyzing statements made by govt officials, one way to look at them is that, if they're announcing good news, they're often prone to overstate the positives. And, if bad news, they're often prone to minimize negatives. It's not always the case, but it's in line with human nature in general and also with the natural desire to not upset their superiors. Of course, in this case it's also possible they might be trying to front-run bad news because they want to prepare people for what's coming.
No matter how you slice it, whether the bad shit is already hitting the fan, or whether even more serious shit is just about to hit the fan, these senior officials are painting a bleak picture of the Russian economy.
Oh, and please notice what's conspicuously absent from all of the comments -- any mention of the role of China as even a partial answer to the problems posed by sanctions.
Since this is an anonymous fuckboard, nothing posted here has any real-world effect, none whatsoever. In stark contrast, Russia's belief in its internal propaganda, such as the mistaken idea they would be greeted just being stupid. There is no victory scenario for Russia. Zero, zip, nada. They've already lost and it's just a matter of time before that reality sets in. Real life is a b, ain't it? See how that works?The reality of a unipolar world -- won't that be nice. Then you'll get to experience the real life as a be -- globohomo rule, paying girls everywhere in dollars / euros, Americanized women from Moscow, Kiev, everywhere. See how that works?
We don't care about Putin, but if you need a bogeyman for your projections, that's understandable.
Israel pointing out the right of return isn't meaningful beyond exactly what it is.
That you want to shift the paradigm away from Putin, and instead pivot to the Jews, is very telling indeed.The Right of Exclusion is exactly what it is, the prerogative of a supremacist ethno-religious apartheid state. Fine by them -- so long as they can get away with it. This state has pivoted to Ukraine by using the sad situation as an opportunity to lure away the Ukiejew population, while the Ukiechristians can remain to get slaughtered.
Now that you've been shifted back to realities, any further of your commentary on this subject would be telling, telling that you've internalized the commands of your oppressors.
BTW, the fact that you sidle up to the psyop term "Special Operation" is another clear tell of how far up Putin's nether orifice you are. You really should arrange a meet with Pedro M, IRL. Maybe he could direct some of his "stock of wealth" your way?Maybe they are the same person, Russian bots are everywhere.
That is exactly why I used "quotes".
Those of us old enough to remember the "Mission accomplished" banner. You know.
And yes, the scenario you paint, an Eastern Ukraine sinking in poverty and a Western Ukraine quickly improving their standards of life is the "win" that Russia may not survive scenarios I was thinking of.
What would constitute a Russian "win" and what would be a considered a "loss"? A month ago, we were thinking Russia would run over Kiev and topple the Zelensky government.
Simply initiating destruction is not considered a victory in modern war thinking.
A likely outcome is that Russia occupies some Ukrainian territory indefinitely. Is that a "win" if the West rebuilds the rest of the Ukraine better than before and invites them into the European Union? Is it a "win" if Finland and Sweden join NATO?
In most wars, the tragic loss of life and destruction does not usually lead to a better situation. Life will suck for Eastern Ukrainians. However, the Ukraine will emerge as a sovereign nation with a stronger identity.
It is only 50 days, that I agree is like 45 more than most pundits expected.
However Ukraine is a small nation, they can not take the losses the same way Russians do, forget armor, I am talking about loss of human life.
Compromise will happen most likely, but as I said, it is likely that this will damage Russian more in the medium / long term.
Let see.
What has been shown in this war is that size doesn't matter. Russian military is dominated by armour. Its clear that the armour wasn't successful against Kiev. When you have to meet your enemy on foot in their territory you need significantly larger numbers than the defender as well as good logistic support.
The Russian air force has not even been able to establish air superiority. The Russian military is using dated technology that does not stand up to drones and hand held anti tank and anti aircraft weaponry. In the age of the smart phone there is not a lot of enthusiasm for volunteering to be a grunt that gets their limbs blown off. Not good selfie material hence the low moral.
If the west keeps up sufficient supply of modern weapons then Russia will not be able to hold ground taken. If the west gets bored and tapers its supply Russia will probably grind itself to military victory at the cost of much of its front line armour and aircraft and in 3-4 years the biggest market for its gas gone. Europe (read Germany) has finally worked out that financially supporting Russia is not in their long term interests.
You evil imperialist dog!
The Moskva has not been sunk! It has been upgraded with submarine warfare capabilities, a technology you can only dream of.
More seriously, I am not as happy as you are. My development team was mostly based in Ukraine, and while so far they are all more or less good. And some of them even outside fighting the CyberArmy, the toll is really heavy.
I'm sure you've noticed that, when faced with objective facts such as the sinking of the Moskva, or the rubbleization of the ruble, G & P will shuck and jive, change the subject, or whatever else they can think of to avoid the reality that's slapping them in the face and skewering their BS.
The reality of a unipolar world -- won't that be nice. Then you'll get to experience the real life as a be -- globohomo rule, paying girls everywhere in dollars / euros, Americanized women from Moscow, Kiev, everywhere. See how that works?
We don't care about Putin, but if you need a bogeyman for your projections, that's understandable.I personally don't give a fuck about unipolar vs multipolar. But I do care when butchers rise up and, using the pretexts that are always at hand, invade countries that posed no real threat. And please spare us the mindless repetition of the gas that Putin blows out his ass. There is no objective, rational, analysis that supports the notion that Russia faced an existential threat. If you're looking for bogeymen, look no further than the ludicrous hysterics filling Russian media.
I've never been a defender of pre-Feb 24th Ukraine and I'm quite aware of a variety of sins they're likely guilty of. But nothing excuses Putin's war of choice. And nothing excuses the war crimes about which evidence (much of it gathered by third-parties) mounts daily.
The term "bogeyman" implies that the fear, blame, and oppobrium is misplaced. In stark contrast, and based on overwhelming factual evidence, Putin fully deserves his condemnation. All that remains is for a tipping point to be reached within Russia itself. It's instructive to remember that Mussolini was adored and revered, until the moment arrived when he wasn't. May that moment arrive for Putin as quickly as possible.
BTW, even if (when, IMO) Putin is dethroned, the most likely scenario is that his replacement will come from the current crop of Russian elites. That person will blame Putin for everything, and will promise reforms, most of which will be of the token variety if they happen at all. But Russia will continue, most probably along the customary kleptocratic lines, with the only difference being the demonization of Putin.
And demonization is exactly what will happen. Stalin was a butcher but he wasn't a loser. Russian pride can tolerate butchery as long as it's accompanied by victory. What they can't tolerate is a loser, and that's exactly the label they'll stick on poor LilliPutin. Their own pride and self-esteem will demand that they expunge the memory of Putin from the collective consciousness. It will be glorious to witness!
Oh, and China will continue to be a major player, so you can still have you multipolar wet dreams, no worries. But Russia may have cause to worry about China as Comrade Xi looks to take advantage of the power vacuum Putin's downfall will cause. Does anyone remember the Chinese name for Vladivostok? It might be useful to brush up on little factoids like that.
More seriously, I am not as happy as you are. My development team was mostly based in Ukraine, and while so far they are all more or less good. And some of them even outside fighting the CyberArmy, the toll is really heavy.Everything posted in this forum can be appropriately characterized as "comments from the peanut gallery," and thoroughly inconsequential. But the real lives in Ukraine being disrupted, destroyed, and untimely ended, that's what truly matters.
Every analyst and ivory tower pundit who doesn't acknowledge the price being paid by real people isn't worth reading or listening to.
Also, anything I might post that might seem "happy" is only so to the extent that I will be glad to see the just consequences of brutality and aggression visited upon the heads of the aggressors and brutalizers. I would have been truly happy had Ukraine not been invaded.
Great mental stimulation going down memory lane. So glad I enjoyed the golden years but sad it ended this unimaginable way. First one to go was Donetsk.
Originally Posted by Jojosun.
I have a feeling (blondie's party) will win the election, come jan10, and she has pledged to join the ee, then the golden days will come gradually to an end.
The IMF and the EE did not pump 16 billion dollars into the Ukraine economy for nothing.
Ukraine can not be more nationalist than Serbia, which opted for the ee direction, so in a nutshell the ee needs Ukraine, and the Ukraine needs the ee, and they couldn't give a fuck about us mongers.
http://www.internationalsexguide.nl/forum/showthread.php?816-Kiev/page1105
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/04/18/former-sberbank-senior-executive-flees-russia-vedomosti-a77389
For clarification, my definition of the elite class is wider than just govt officials, and includes anyone with sufficient money and societal status such that they could (if they chose) ride out the current storm. That's not to say they wouldn't endure some degree of hardship, but their position and wealth would serve as a buffer against severe outcomes.
When someone in that class chooses to leave, that's a de facto vote on how they view their future prospects in Russia. And, when a member of the elite class takes such a drastic step, it's guaranteed that others will notice. And some who take note will start asking their own questions, and perhaps start making or perfecting their own plan of departure.
Sanctions were imposed on Russia but the Folks at Goldman Sacks found a way of getting round it according to NBC.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/goldman-sachs-profits-ukraine-war-loophole-sanctions-rcna19584
"How Goldman Sachs profits from war in Ukraine, loophole in sanctions.
The Wall Street firm has told the public it is "winding down" its business in Russia, portraying its actions as supportive of USA Efforts to stop Russian President Vladimir Putin."
"An investor who declined a Goldman trader's offer to add Russian debt to his hedge fund's portfolio — because of the war — said the trader suggested he could "just put it in your personal account" to avoid scrutiny".
Shares in defence stocks are surging https://www.forbes.com/sites/sergeiklebnikov/2022/03/04/war-stocks-are-surging-as-russia-ukraine-conflict-rages-on-lockheed-martin-northrop-up-20/.
www.thetimes.co.uk
Defence companies having a good war in Ukraine as shares skyrocket.
Such investors aren't really weeping over the Invasion of Ukraine, are they?
Neurosynth
04-21-22, 16:28
The Right of Exclusion is exactly what it is, the prerogative of a supremacist ethno-religious apartheid state. Fine by them -- so long as they can get away with it. This state has pivoted to Ukraine by using the sad situation as an opportunity to lure away the Ukiejew population, while the Ukiechristians can remain to get slaughtered.
Now that you've been shifted back to realities, any further of your commentary on this subject would be telling, telling that you've internalized the commands of your oppressors.Putin is the one doing all the killing. Your attempt to blame the Jews ultimately didn't work for Hitler, won't work for Putin, and labels you as one in the same for all to see.
Sanctions were imposed on Russia but the Folks at Goldman Sacks found a way of getting round it according to NBC.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/goldman-sachs-profits-ukraine-war-loophole-sanctions-rcna19584
"How Goldman Sachs profits from war in Ukraine, loophole in sanctions.
The Wall Street firm has told the public it is "winding down" its business in Russia, portraying its actions as supportive of USA Efforts to stop Russian President Vladimir Putin."
"An investor who declined a Goldman trader's offer to add Russian debt to his hedge fund's portfolio because of the war said the trader suggested he could "just put it in your personal account" to avoid scrutiny".If I understand the Goldman Sachs article correctly, the Russian debt in question is being bought and sold on the secondary market and had to be issued before March 1st. Russia (as the issuer of the primary security) has already received the funds from the initial sale. These secondary sales are between institutions or private individuals trading in those already-issued instruments, and no sanctioned entity can be party to, or a beneficiary of, such transactions.
That's certainly not a defense of Goldman Sachs. It's entirely fair to criticize them as bottom-feeding scum looking to make a profit from the wartime misery of others, so feel free to bash away! I just wanted to point out that this particular sanction "loophole" does not direct money into Putin's war coffers, or (as is so often the case) his personal pocket.
As for defense companies profiting, that's pretty much always been true in times of war. I wonder what the balance sheets and P&L statements of arrow and lance manufacturers looked like in medieval times?
If I understand the Goldman Sachs article correctly, the Russian debt in question is being bought and sold on the secondary market and had to be issued before March 1st. Russia (as the issuer of the primary security) has already received the funds from the initial sale. These secondary sales are between institutions or private individuals trading in those already-issued instruments, and no sanctioned entity can be party to, or a beneficiary of, such transactions.
That's certainly not a defense of Goldman Sachs. It's entirely fair to criticize them as bottom-feeding scum looking to make a profit from the wartime misery of others, so feel free to bash away! I just wanted to point out that this particular sanction "loophole" does not direct money into Putin's war coffers, or (as is so often the case) his personal pocket.
As for defense companies profiting, that's pretty much always been true in times of war. I wonder what the balance sheets and P&L statements of arrow and lance manufacturers looked like in medieval times?I read the same thing. I don't know why our government wouldn't let USA Firms trade already issued Russian bonds. All that happens is investors who want to take on more risk buy the bonds from investors who cannot tolerate the risk of sitting on assets that could be totally worthless.
In my opinion, the headline is a bit of clickbait.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/finland-sweden-begin-nato-application-may-say-local-media-reports-2022-04-25/
Where did all the Putin-loving posters go? I'd love for them to explain how this is all part of Little Vlad's masterful (sarc) plan!
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/finland-sweden-begin-nato-application-may-say-local-media-reports-2022-04-25/
Where did all the Putin-loving posters go? I'd love for them to explain how this is all part of Little Vlad's masterful (sarc) plan!That's because the Russians are losing. They're losing the war on the battlefield, they're losing the war of public opinion, they're losing their economy, their money, their lifestyles, their soul and their mind. With Finland joining NATO, they're about to lose that one thing they've been fighting for so hard. Keeping the block from expanding to its borders.
Oh well! It's hard to root for a loser.
Karlgnter2
04-26-22, 06:52
That's because the Russians are losing. They're losing the war on the battlefield, they're losing the war of public opinion, they're losing their economy, their money, their lifestyles, their soul and their mind. With Finland joining NATO, they're about to lose that one thing they've been fighting for so hard. Keeping the block from expanding to its borders.
Oh well! It's hard to root for a loser.Yes, it was a mistake for Russians to engage in a war with Ukraine and in the near future they will realize that this stupid decision of there's is going to bring a number of negative outcomes.
PedroMorales
04-26-22, 10:17
Sweden is already de facto a NATO member. Finland is a different case. Its pipsqueak naval exercises with the Baltic pimples this month won't amount to much.
The problem in Europe is Americans. Americans do not belong here or anywhere else for that matter. Europe will not improve until it is open season on Americans and Americans are recognized as the genocidal maniacs that they are. Think Vietnam war.
Your Nazi filth remain trapped in the Azov steel works, along with their American commanders. Most of Ukraine's army is bogged down in its east. My own opinion is Russia have given them plenty of warning and they should now unleash hell on them, just as American filth did in Iraq and elsewhere.
But I am not on the Russian command staff.
I have other things to do than argue with brain dead Americans here all day long. No wonder these threads are called Stupid Shit. Stupid Americans might be more apt.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/finland-sweden-begin-nato-application-may-say-local-media-reports-2022-04-25/
Where did all the Putin-loving posters go? I'd love for them to explain how this is all part of Little Vlad's masterful (sarc) plan!
DramaFree11
04-26-22, 13:19
That's because the Russians are losing. They're losing the war on the battlefield, they're losing the war of public opinion, they're losing their economy, their money, their lifestyles, their soul and their mind. With Finland joining NATO, they're about to lose that one thing they've been fighting for so hard. Keeping the block from expanding to its borders.
Oh well! It's hard to root for a loser.Nobody is winning. This is a total mess. The war needs to end yesterday, somebody needs to win.
Nobody is winning. This is a total mess. The war needs to end yesterday, Ukraine needs to win.Fixed that for you.
Sweden is already de facto a NATO member. Finland is a different case. Its pipsqueak naval exercises with the Baltic pimples this month won't amount to much.
The problem in Europe is Americans. Americans do not belong here or anywhere else for that matter. Europe will not improve until it is open season on Americans and Americans are recognized as the genocidal maniacs that they are. Think Vietnam war.
Your Nazi filth remain trapped in the Azov steel works, along with their American commanders. Most of Ukraine's army is bogged down in its east. My own opinion is Russia have given them plenty of warning and they should now unleash hell on them, just as American filth did in Iraq and elsewhere..And he's on shaky ground. Oh wait, it's not the ground that's shaking, it's Little Vlad's uncontrollable hand, leg, and foot tremors! How sad it must be for Russians who crave a strong leader to witness Putin's obviously failing health. As I understand it, diseases like Parkinson's can impact cognitive abilities and exacerbate irrational behavior. That certainly explains a lot, doesn't it? I wouldn't be surprised if there are some elites snickering in the background and making jokes! I'd be tempted to feel sorry for him if he wasn't such a murderous thug.
No matter, there's not a single metric by which Russia isn't worse off now than before Feb 24th. And, in direct contrast, the influence of US-led NATO is increasing in Europe by leaps and bounds. The West has never been more united and America hasn't been this welcomed in Europe since WW-II.
Most likely scenario: Finland + Sweden in NATO, Ukraine in the EU, and Russia in the shitter.
Oh, and about Mariupol? Russian propaganda-mongers have proclaimed "victory" on a daily basis for more than a month now. So how come they still need to drop bombs on "conquered" territory? I'm guessing there are some Russian generals who are pissing themselves right now because they're frantic to have something they can pretend is a "victory" by May 9th.
Better hurry up, Comrades, that date is only about a week away! And LilliPutin is not in a forgiving mood.
P.S. About Stupid Shit threads, for someone who claims to be above them you certainly post in them a lot. Not just here, but in Medellin, etc. How hilarious it is for the pig to bad mouth the muck he rolls around in (LOL).
Nobody is winning. This is a total mess. The war needs to end yesterday, somebody needs to win.When you're being attacked by a bigger, more powerful opponent, not losing is the equivalent of a win. Hanging in there while the bully exhausts himself gives you a chance to strike back when the opportunity presents itself.
Ukraine didn't choose this war, Russia did. And Ukraine doesn't have the luxury of dictating terms and conditions. The best they can do is roll with the punch. And, with the support they're receiving from NATO and the West, they now have a fighting chance. Every piece of eqp lost by Russia will be difficult or impossible to replace. Every Ukraine loss is being replaced by weapons that are even newer and better.
DramaFree11
04-30-22, 05:15
Fixed that for you.When your country is destroyed, sorry that is not a win. They will never get into NATO because of the corruption. Yes, both Russia and Ukraine are screwed. Especially they every day people.
DramaFree11
04-30-22, 05:33
And he's on shaky ground. Oh wait, it's not the ground that's shaking, it's Little Vlad's uncontrollable hand, leg, and foot tremors! How sad it must be for Russians who crave a strong leader to witness Putin's obviously failing health. As I understand it, diseases like Parkinson's can impact cognitive abilities and exacerbate irrational behavior. That certainly explains a lot, doesn't it? I wouldn't be surprised if there are some elites snickering in the background and making jokes! I'd be tempted to feel sorry for him if he wasn't such a murderous thug.
No matter, there's not a single metric by which Russia isn't worse off now than before Feb 24th. And, in direct contrast, the influence of US-led NATO is increasing in Europe by leaps and bounds. The West has never been more united and America hasn't been this welcomed in Europe since WW-II.
Most likely scenario: Finland + Sweden in NATO, Ukraine in the EU, and Russia in the shitter.
Oh, and about Mariupol? Russian propaganda-mongers have proclaimed "victory" on a daily basis for more than a month now. So how come they still need to drop bombs on "conquered" territory? I'm guessing there are some Russian generals who are pissing themselves right now because they're frantic to have something they can pretend is a "victory" by May 9th.Great post. I post about MDE because it is shit-hole, but you probably like the place. The difference between Kiev and MDE. 10-15 years ago Kiev was an amazing place, full of energy, great food, fun, amazing night-life, , great theater, good weather and many other wonderful things. Then corruption took over and unfortunately the country fell apart. I really doubt MDE was ever good, unless you have terribly low standards, you like bad service and even worse food. I can go on. If you like cheap sex was average girls and very curvy, then go. I am sure Bogota is much better, but both are very dangerous and full of drugs.
For all you flyover country cowboys and Gotham shtetl crawlers, we hear ya.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=AVf7m_YZ2zY
Every piece of eqp lost by Russia will be difficult or impossible to replace. Every Ukraine loss is being replaced by weapons that are even newer and better.Russia gets million from selling oil and gas, they can use another third country (like Iran or so) to buy Chinese equipment and skip sanctions, will see what happens.
When you're being attacked by a bigger, more powerful opponent, not losing is the equivalent of a win. Hanging in there while the bully exhausts himself gives you a chance to strike back when the opportunity presents itself.
Ukraine didn't choose this war, Russia did. And Ukraine doesn't have the luxury of dictating terms and conditions. The best they can do is roll with the punch. And, with the support they're receiving from NATO and the West, they now have a fighting chance. Every piece of eqp lost by Russia will be difficult or impossible to replace. Every Ukraine loss is being replaced by weapons that are even newer and better.Jmsuttr, I was reading how a country like India buys a lot of military hardware from both Russia and the West. If countries see Russian military hardware underperforming in battle they might adjust their purchases. This war can't be good for future Russia's military exports.
India has always played a decent game of neutrality. However, Indian elites are definitely Western-oriented. Too many affluent Indian ex-pats in the United States, United Kingdom, Canada, etc. The Indians are also watching this dance between China and Russia. Needless to say, China is India's rival economically and militarily in the region.
When your country is destroyed, sorry that is not a win. They will never get into NATO because of the corruption. Yes, both Russia and Ukraine are screwed. Especially they every day people.Much of Europe was destroyed in WW-II. It took years of investment and reconstruction, but it was rebuilt. Ukraine already has many commitments for such reconstruction efforts.
Besides, Ukraine has no choice in the matter. Russia is the one who chose the path of destruction, not Ukraine. All Ukrainians are doing is defending themselves as best they can. And, hopefully with Western weapons and support, they can kick the Russians out of most or all of their territory.
So, while I understand your general sentiment, unless you have another solution, the Ukrainians are doing the best they can with the shitty cards they've been dealt.
As far as NATO is concerned, I'm guessing Ukraine will be allowed to enter the EU and that some set of security guarantees will be crafted that don't necessarily depend on NATO membership. Besides, the primary reason for NATO's existence is to counterbalance threats from Russia. If the end result of this war is that Russia is severely weakened and can no longer pose a credible threat to Ukraine, then that problem will be substantially solved.
There are no good answers, obviously, because the best answer would be for the war to have never started. Since that's passed out of the realm of possibility, the only options left are those that deal squarely with the reality of the situation, such as it is.
Great post. I post about MDE because it is shit-hole, but you probably like the place. The difference between Kiev and MDE. 10-15 years ago Kiev was an amazing place, full of energy, great food, fun, amazing night-life, , great theater, good weather and many other wonderful things. Then corruption took over and unfortunately the country fell apart. I really doubt MDE was ever good, unless you have terribly low standards, you like bad service and even worse food. I can go on. If you like cheap sex was average girls and very curvy, then go. I am sure Bogota is much better, but both are very dangerous and full of drugs.In my response to Pedro M, the only reason I mentioned Medellin was because he (Pedro M) was complaining about "Stupid Shit" threads while actively posting in SS threads in both the Kiev and Medellin forums.
So my only reason for posting about MDE at all was for the purpose of pointing out Pedro M's blatant hypocrisy, nothing more.
For all you flyover country cowboys and Gotham shtetl crawlers, we hear ya.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=AVf7m_YZ2zYNuthin', zero, zip, nada.
Not sure what kind of delusional world you inhabit in which you think that a random YouTube video link, posted by you, would be of general interest.
Pray tell, is it a home video of Hitler celebrating his birthday in a bunker?
Russia gets million from selling oil and gas, they can use another third country (like Iran or so) to buy Chinese equipment and skip sanctions, will see what happens.Sanctions evasion is absolutely happening, of that I have no doubt. But the question is what items are slipping through the cracks and whether it's happening on a large enough scale to make a material difference. It's also important to consider how far a country is willing to stick its neck out for Russia.
Take China, for example, while they talk about "partnership" with Russia, there's no evidence they're helping Russia militarily. And that's probably because that would risk their relationship with Europe and the West. And China needs the West much more than it needs Russia. Also, the kinds of items that would be important are pretty well tracked. And it's unlikely that advanced technology of value would be sold to either China or Iran. And, when it comes to military tech, Russia has generally been considered to be at a higher level, or at least on par, with China's. Not sure exactly what China has to offer, even if they were inclined to do so.
Since sanctions evasion happens away from the public eye, maybe the best indicator is what's happening inside Russia itself. From every report I'm seeing, Russia is running short of precision munitions and has had to shut down tank and missile factories. I agree that time will tell, although I don't think time is on Russia's side.
Jmsuttr, I was reading how a country like India buys a lot of military hardware from both Russia and the West. If countries see Russian military hardware underperforming in battle they might adjust their purchases. This war can't be good for future Russia's military exports.
India has always played a decent game of neutrality. However, Indian elites are definitely Western-oriented. Too many affluent Indian ex-pats in the United States, United Kingdom, Canada, etc. The Indians are also watching this dance between China and Russia. Needless to say, China is India's rival economically and militarily in the region.One foundational fact is that India hates China, with a capital H. One reason they've cultivated a relationship with Russia is because that was seen as way to blunt China's regional influence.
Right now I think many countries, India included, are reevaluating their relationship with Russia. I'm sure India is happy, in the short term, to buy oil at a substantial discount. But I'm sure they're taking a look at long term scenarios.
And I absolutely agree that Indian generals and admirals must be positively horrified at the underperformance of Russian military eqp.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10770541/amp/Putin-cancer-operation-near-future-hand-power-hardline-ex-KGB-chief.html
As I noted in the post title, this is as yet unconfirmed. But it's certainly something to watch for over the next few days or weeks.
Russia gets million from selling oil and gas, they can use another third country (like Iran or so) to buy Chinese equipment and skip sanctions, will see what happens.What broke the USSR was military spending trying to match the US. With more sanctions, reduced international access to markets and through the roof military spending the people in Russia are not going to be be happy if the only outcome of this war is to get independence for a couple of breakaway republics that had already broken away.
When your country is destroyed, sorry that is not a win. They will never get into NATO because of the corruption. Yes, both Russia and Ukraine are screwed. Especially they every day people.On May 8 1945, many countries in Europe laid destroyed, and yet, it was a win. What does corruption or NATO have to do with the fact that Ukraine became a victim of an unprovoked aggression? Did Ukraine wake up one morning and decided: what a great day for getting destroyed? Or did Russia do it to them?
I'm not sure what you're trying to say? Should Ukraine capitulate in your opinion now that they're winning?
PedroMorales
05-01-22, 09:36
You are American and so do not belong in Europe about which you should not comment because you know nothing about it.
World War Two in Europe was a win for the USA who gave the least and took the most.
NATO is an American controlled mafia gang that is fueling the Ukrainian war, just as Sweden and Finland fueled Hitler. If Sweden and Finland carry through and join NATO and thereby allow Russia's Northern fleet to be blocked and Russia's early warning nuclear defences to be countered, nuclear war heads will rain down on New York and Washington.
Corruption has losers, in this case the ordinary Ukrainians. Zelensky, a guy who plays the piano in the nude, is the world's richest comedian.
Ukraine should surrender. Eastern Ukraine is being liberated and the last twelve years of Kiev war crimes are being ended. Western Ukraine will be another Kosovo, another US controlled Kosovo. Victoria NuLand said Fuck the EU. Fuck America as well. And fuck off as well.
On May 8 1945, many countries in Europe laid destroyed, and yet, it was a win. What does corruption or NATO have to do with the fact that Ukraine became a victim of an unprovoked aggression? Did Ukraine wake up one morning and decided: what a great day for getting destroyed? Or did Russia do it to them?
I'm not sure what you're trying to say? Should Ukraine capitulate in your opinion now that they're winning?
On May 8 1945, many countries in Europe laid destroyed, and yet, it was a win. What does corruption or NATO have to do with the fact that Ukraine became a victim of an unprovoked aggression? Did Ukraine wake up one morning and decided: what a great day for getting destroyed? Or did Russia do it to them?
I'm not sure what you're trying to say? Should Ukraine capitulate in your opinion now that they're winning?LOL. Ukraine is being ruthlessly used by rogue elements in the USA who think a,weakened Russia somehow helps the USA. On the contrary, USA would benefit from a strong Russia led bloc as an ally against China. USA certainly wasn't threatened by Russia after 1990,-but some people didn't get the message. Or maybe they did get a different message: no Russian enemy means budget cuts. Too shortsighted to see that China would justify plenty of budget for defense, so no need fur Russia as enemy.
Ukrainians are even stupider than USA to have allowed themselves to be used by these USA rogue elements. I say rogue, because according to reports in NYTimes and elsewhere, CIA has been warning for years that Ukraine is a red line for Russia and was advising against arming Ukraine. Even former President Bush the first (previously head of CIA) warned Ukrainians about nationalism in 1990. His son, of course, was the idiot (along with arch warmongers Rumsfeld and Cheney) who insisted on opening NATO for Ukraine,-which is how this mess started. Rogue elements are State and Defense Department. Defense because they never met a war they didn't like, as long as no real risk to USA. State because populated by nsive idealists. In other words, contrary to the natural assumption of a devious CIA plot, CIA are the responsible grownups in this case, and State Department is who has been running amok.
Ukraine is not going to win as long as Putin is alive, because Russia can just escalate to nukes. Furthermore, even without Putin, there is a deep bench of military types behind Putin who are just as hawkish about Ukraine being a red line, so nukes still possible without Putin. Though I don't expect nukes, with or without Putin. Rather, I expect total devastation of southern and eastern Ukraine.
So yes, capitulation is and always has been the best option. If they want, split off west Ukraine and call it Galicia and send all the nationalists there.
DramaFree11
05-01-22, 16:35
LOL. Ukraine is being ruthlessly used by rogue elements in the USA who think a,weakened Russia somehow helps the USA. On the contrary, USA would benefit from a strong Russia led bloc as an ally against China. USA certainly wasn't threatened by Russia after 1990,-but some people didn't get the message. Or maybe they did get a different message: no Russian enemy means budget cuts. Too shortsighted to see that China would justify plenty of budget for defense, so no need fur Russia as enemy.
Ukrainians are even stupider than USA to have allowed themselves to be used by these USA rogue elements. I say rogue, because according to reports in NYTimes and elsewhere, CIA has been warning for years that Ukraine is a red line for Russia and was advising against arming Ukraine. Even former President Bush the first (previously head of CIA) warned Ukrainians about nationalism in 1990. His son, of course, was the idiot (along with arch warmongers Rumsfeld and Cheney) who insisted on opening NATO for Ukraine,-which is how this mess started. Rogue elements are State and Defense Department. Defense because they never met a war they didn't like, as long as no real risk to USA. State because populated by nsive idealists. In other words, contrary to the natural assumption of a devious CIA plot, CIA are the responsible grownups in this case, and State Department is who has been running amok.
Ukraine is not going to win as long as Putin is alive, because Russia can just escalate to nukes. Furthermore, even without Putin, there is a deep bench of military types behind Putin who are just as hawkish about Ukraine being a red line, so nukes still possible without Putin. Though I don't expect nukes, with or without Putin. Rather, I expect total devastation of southern and eastern Ukraine..By far your best post ever. We disagree about a lot of thing, about Ukraine, but I completely agree with you on your assessment. Ukraine loses either way. A tie is not a win, if there is nothing left.
LOL. Ukraine is being ruthlessly used by rogue elements in the USA who think a,weakened Russia somehow helps the USA. On the contrary, USA would benefit from a strong Russia led bloc as an ally against China. USA certainly wasn't threatened by Russia after 1990,-but some people didn't get the message. Or maybe they did get a different message: no Russian enemy means budget cuts. Too shortsighted to see that China would justify plenty of budget for defense, so no need fur Russia as enemy.
Ukrainians are even stupider than USA to have allowed themselves to be used by these USA rogue elements. I say rogue, because according to reports in NYTimes and elsewhere, CIA has been warning for years that Ukraine is a red line for Russia and was advising against arming Ukraine. Even former President Bush the first (previously head of CIA) warned Ukrainians about nationalism in 1990. His son, of course, was the idiot (along with arch warmongers Rumsfeld and Cheney) who insisted on opening NATO for Ukraine,-which is how this mess started. Rogue elements are State and Defense Department. Defense because they never met a war they didn't like, as long as no real risk to USA. State because populated by nsive idealists. In other words, contrary to the natural assumption of a devious CIA plot, CIA are the responsible grownups in this case, and State Department is who has been running amok..You need to include the power hungry Dems that used the Ukraine to gin up fake scandals in your history of this sad event.
As a child of the Kingdom of Galicia and Lodomeria, I know how complex the history of that area is.
LOL. Ukraine is being ruthlessly used by rogue elements in the USA who think a,weakened Russia somehow helps the USA. On the contrary, USA would benefit from a strong Russia led bloc as an ally against China. USA certainly wasn't threatened by Russia after 1990,-but some people didn't get the message. Or maybe they did get a different message: no Russian enemy means budget cuts. Too shortsighted to see that China would justify plenty of budget for defense, so no need fur Russia as enemy.
Ukrainians are even stupider than USA to have allowed themselves to be used by these USA rogue elements. I say rogue, because according to reports in NYTimes and elsewhere, CIA has been warning for years that Ukraine is a red line for Russia and was advising against arming Ukraine. Even former President Bush the first (previously head of CIA) warned Ukrainians about nationalism in 1990. His son, of course, was the idiot (along with arch warmongers Rumsfeld and Cheney) who insisted on opening NATO for Ukraine,-which is how this mess started. Rogue elements are State and Defense Department. Defense because they never met a war they didn't like, as long as no real risk to USA. State because populated by nsive idealists. In other words, contrary to the natural assumption of a devious CIA plot, CIA are the responsible grownups in this case, and State Department is who has been running amok.Is that they become so enamored of their own superior knowledge and insight that they have blinders when it comes to anything that might cast doubt on their conclusions. I don't claim to be a geopolitical expert, but I do have a keen eye for when cherry-picking of agreeable facts, and failing to acknowledge (or look for) disagreeable facts, is going on.
With respect to pre-Feb 24th realities, all of that was mooted by Russia's invasion. With that single act Putin took a situation that was many shades of gray and turned it into one that's starkly black and white. In Europe, the West, and arguably much of the world, Ukraine is perceived as the victim and Russia, personified in Putin, as the villain and aggressor.
I use the word "personified" because it's particularly apt, as Putin's leadership is as much a cult of personality as anything else. But that becomes problematic when the leader weakens or fails. Putin's health is clearly failing, as several videos released by Russian media have shown. And his military is desperately trying to avoid failure and gin up something that can be proclaimed as a victory, esp by the symbolic date of May 9th.
If Putin dies, or becomes unable to function, it's your assumption that another hard-liner will seamlessly take over and continue as before. I would argue that, in a "Royal Court" environment in which Putin has ruthlessly eliminated and suppressed any potential rival, it's equally likely that a bloodbath could break out as possible successors fight among each other. And there's also the question of how well, in a population conditioned to revere and idolize (only) Putin, any successor would be accepted. Any successive leader will be viewed, and evaluated, through Putin-colored glasses.
BTW, it's also worth noting that some strange shit is going on in Russia:
https://pjmedia.com/vodkapundit/2022/04/28/what-the-hell-is-going-on-in-russia-n1593602
Events like mysterious fires and bridge collapses indicate either an extraordinary level of bad luck (or incompetence?) or perhaps an ongoing campaign of sabotage by either internal or external actors. Whatever the explanation, Mother Russia is experiencing a significant case of indigestion. I'm not making any specific predictions, simply observing that any analysis that ignores internal Russian difficulties is flawed.
Equally flawed is the assumption that Putin's army is capable of a conventional military victory, or would be able to effectively hold any territory they might conquer. All the evidence from the battlefield indicates that any gains made by Russia have come at a huge cost in men and equipment. That doesn't mean Ukraine isn't paying a high price, but they're being backstopped and replenished by the West, while Russia remains isolated. So, if a conventional victory proves to be out of reach, nukes are arguably one of the few (only?) cards Putin has left. One possible scenario would be a low-yield strike at a strategic target. But is such a move possible in the context of a "special operation" or would Putin first need to declare war and move toward full mobilization? And would such a move cost Russia the last shred of support or neutrality by countries like China and India?
I don't pretend to know the answers to all the above questions, or the scores of additional variables (known and unknown) that undoubtedly exist. All I know is that most pundits and prognosticators, like those who predicted a quick capitulation by Ukraine, have been proven embarrassingly wrong. Reality tends to play by her own rules.
You are American and so do not belong in Europe about which you should not comment because you know nothing about it.
World War Two in Europe was a win for the USA who gave the least and took the most.
NATO is an American controlled mafia gang that is fueling the Ukrainian war, just as Sweden and Finland fueled Hitler. If Sweden and Finland carry through and join NATO and thereby allow Russia's Northern fleet to be blocked and Russia's early warning nuclear defences to be countered, nuclear war heads will rain down on New York and Washington.
Corruption has losers, in this case the ordinary Ukrainians. Zelensky, a guy who plays the piano in the nude, is the world's richest comedian.
Ukraine should surrender. Eastern Ukraine is being liberated and the last twelve years of Kiev war crimes are being ended. Western Ukraine will be another Kosovo, another US controlled Kosovo. Victoria NuLand said Fuck the EU. Fuck America as well. And fuck off as well.Pedro, you have to be a devout Marxist. You've obviously been sucking down Red Bull all your life.
You are American and so do not belong in Europe about which you should not comment because you know nothing about it.
World War Two in Europe was a win for the USA who gave the least and took the most.
NATO is an American controlled mafia gang that is fueling the Ukrainian war, just as Sweden and Finland fueled Hitler. If Sweden and Finland carry through and join NATO and thereby allow Russia's Northern fleet to be blocked and Russia's early warning nuclear defences to be countered, nuclear war heads will rain down on New York and Washington.
Corruption has losers, in this case the ordinary Ukrainians. Zelensky, a guy who plays the piano in the nude, is the world's richest comedian..If Finland and Sweden join NATO, it's as a direct result of Putin's narcissistic stupidity. He's going to rattle his nuclear saber, no matter what, but that's being seen as a sign of desperation and weakness.
Finland and Sweden are therefore giving LilliPutin the middle finger and calling his bluff. It seems to me they're betting that Vlad's trembling finger won't be able to find the red button, much less push it. And, even if he is a deranged and suicidal psychopath, it's unlikely that everyone in the launch chain of command will be willing to follow him off the nuclear cliff. It's just as likely that someone will give him a classic Stalin-style retirement.
Oh, and about corruption having losers, that's a perfect description of Putin, the uber-kleptocrat, and how he's raped his own country and population. He's losing in every conceivable way someone can lose. And, when he finally crashes and burns, it will be EPIC!
P.S. You know what else will be fun to watch? With all the new NATO bases and European deployments, there are going to be a lot of American soldiers shacking up with and shagging the local women. So that means, in about 9 months to a year, we should start seeing a bumper crop of Finnish-American, Swedish-American, and Baltic-American babies. Yep, thanks to Comrade Putin, NATO is enlarging and is stronger than ever.
LOL. Ukraine is being ruthlessly used by rogue elements in the USA who think a,weakened Russia somehow helps the USA. On the contrary, USA would benefit from a strong Russia led bloc as an ally against China. USA certainly wasn't threatened by Russia after 1990,-but some people didn't get the message. Or maybe they did get a different message: no Russian enemy means budget cuts. Too shortsighted to see that China would justify plenty of budget for defense, so no need fur Russia as enemy.Sure, by all means. Rogue elements. Been missing your bullshit geopolitical word salad lately.
What gives? New instructions from the Internet Research Agency coming in?
Shit, you people are relentless.
Transparent too.
Pedro, you have to be a devout Marxist.Devout Moron more like it.
PedroMorales
05-02-22, 13:30
Pedro, you have to be a devout Marxist. You've obviously been sucking down Red Bull all your life.I have never had a Red Bull in my life and I don't intend to ever have one. I see your Nazi pals in the steelworks are surrendering and the women are predictably giving damning testimony about their captives.
As this is a European thread, you and XPartan should really FK off as you have zilch to contribute, being Americans and therefore being stupid.
I am very busy these days. I have a choice of three local providers. I am amazed prices have not dropped, what with all these Ukrainian hookers fleeing West.
I posted in AW about the Johnny Depp-Amber Heard gig. Heard crapping in the bed, real American class. I find it hard to get around the psychologist, Dr Curry, American, good looking (gym rat?) and intelligent. I guess there's always one.
PedroMorales
05-02-22, 13:37
Is that they become so enamored of their own superior knowledge and insight that they have blinders when it comes to anything that might cast doubt on their conclusions. I don't claim to be a geopolitical expert, but I do have a keen eye for when cherry-picking of agreeable facts, and failing to acknowledge (or look for) disagreeable facts, is going on.What is going on is the world is changing. Pakistan has seen its biggest ever protests against the recent US coup where over 70% of the Cabinet are on bail on corruption charges. The future is a fatwa against Americans, all Americans, scalping and so on, low tech as well as Hi tech, al of which the Pentagon thinks they have planned for.
You mention China and India like they were tiny places. The Great Satan aka USA is now interested in human rights in India (not Saudi) because of Russia. The answer is an all out fatwa on America and Americans. Fat, lazy, stupid and they even defecate in bed, something a dog would not do.
What is going on is the world is changing. Pakistan has seen its biggest ever protests against the recent US coup where over 70% of the Cabinet are on bail on corruption charges. The future is a fatwa against Americans, all Americans, scalping and so on, low tech as well as Hi tech, al of which the Pentagon thinks they have planned for.
You mention China and India like they were tiny places. The Great Satan aka USA is now interested in human rights in India (not Saudi) because of Russia. The answer is an all out fatwa on America and Americans. Fat, lazy, stupid and they even defecate in bed, something a dog would not do.You mention these three countries as though they were bastions of strength, when the opposite is true. Pakistan, India, and China are constantly jockeying for position against each other but those regional struggles are largely irrelevant to the rest of the world. The more they fight, undercut, and devour each other, the less they can make mischief for anyone else.
As far as China is concerned, their zero-covid strategy has backfired in a major way and, having already locked down Shanghai, they're now on the cusp of locking down Beijing. Their biggest problem will be keeping the population employed and fed, which means they'll need to be keenly inwardly focused. And one important point about China's current travails is that it makes them even more dependent on the West. That means their "partnership" with Russia is likely to be more talk than action.
So, in contrast to your delusional fantasies about how the world is changing, all the facts and evidence show that America and the West are in the ascendancy; China, India, and Pakistan are stuck in the mud; and Russia is in a death-spiral. As far as your wet-dream of a fatwa against Americans is concerned, the mouse may proclaim a fatwa against the eagle, to which the eagle responds by calmly and confidently sharpening its talons.
BTW, as far as the actions of any particular individual is concerned, I really couldn't give two shits (in your bed). After all, I don't judge all Russians by Putin's bizarre habit of bathing in deer antler blood (something even a dog would shun).
As far as China is concerned, their zero-covid strategy has backfired in a major way and, having already locked down Shanghai, they're now on the cusp of locking down Beijing. Their biggest problem will be keeping the population employed and fed, which means they'll need to be keenly inwardly focused. And one important point about China's current travails is that it makes them even more dependent on the West. That means their "partnership" with Russia is likely to be more talk than action..China is on the precipice of a economic crash or a long, cyclical stagnation. All of the years of overinvestment in real estate and infrastructure is catching up with them. The Xi government is kicking the can down the road until after he is given another five year term this year. Instead of stepping down after ten years, Xi wants to be Emperor for Life. Expect the small cracks to turn into big cracks after the re-coronation.
The China cheerleaders on social media say that the Chinese government is so smart and so firmly in control that they can navigate around a deep recession and just keep growing. It's never been done in the history of global economics. Economic cycles are not something that are only prone for Western economies. Even the Soviet Union suffered from economic cycles.
The fear is that years and years of hitting the economic accelerator at every sign of weakness had set the tables for a big crash or a long stagnation similar to Japan after its economic boom.
I believe China with its large economy will find a way to keep everyone fed, but the economic strain will test the CCP's hold on the people.
https://www.reddit.com/r/UkrainianConflict/comments/uii5cd/as_the_martial_law_algorithm_was_not_activated/
https://mobile.twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1521854118842753025?t=ez22YMgmKdaFm7RBjx6cLQ&s=09
Definitely something to watch over the next week since many are talking about the likelihood of a formal declaration of war by Russia on that date. If a significant number of soldiers, sailors, and airmen, exercise their option to leave, it'll be interesting to see how the Kremlin responds. From all accounts, morale among Russian troops in Ukraine is pretty low. Even if this information isn't allowed to be publicly discussed, I'm sure it gets around via the grapevine that runs throughout most military forces.
If Russia declares war and invokes a full mobilization of national resources, there will be many, like our resident pro-Russia shills, who will stress only the (potential) positives while ignoring the (very likely) negatives. Interesting times!
China is on the precipice of a economic crash or a long, cyclical stagnation. All of the years of overinvestment in real estate and infrastructure is catching up with them. The Xi government is kicking the can down the road until after he is given another five year term this year. Instead of stepping down after ten years, Xi wants to be Emperor for Life. Expect the small cracks to turn into big cracks after the re-coronation.
The China cheerleaders on social media say that the Chinese government is so smart and so firmly in control that they can navigate around a deep recession and just keep growing. It's never been done in the history of global economics. Economic cycles are not something that are only prone for Western economies. Even the Soviet Union suffered from economic cycles.
The fear is that years and years of hitting the economic accelerator at every sign of weakness had set the tables for a big crash or a long stagnation similar to Japan after its economic boom.
I believe China with its large economy will find a way to keep everyone fed, but the economic strain will test the CCP's hold on the people.Both Russia and China, viewed in a long-term and macro sense, are trending in a negative direction. Both face huge demographic headwinds from declining birthrates that are unlikely to be alleviated by immigration, or other means, for years to come (if ever). China's problem is worse because of the "one child" policy that wasn't changed until much too late. Russia's problem was less acute but now has been worsened because Russia is unlikely to be attractive to immigrants as long as their economy suffers under sanctions or reparations. But Russia, with a smaller population, has less of a built-in buffer, and so may feel the effects sooner than China. Add to that the brain drain, and exodus of younger Russians, and the Kremlin is facing a major societal challenge.
Besides the demographic issues, both economies are full of smoke and mirrors and are opaque to any attempt to realistically analyze them. For example, even though Hong Kong has now been pretty much fully assimilated by China, its economic and financial reporting systems are still a product of pre-assimilation times. HK reported a 4% decrease in GDP in Q1 2022 due to COVID lockdowns. China, however, reported a 4. 8% increase over the same period, even though their COVID lockdowns have arguably been more severe and disruptive. No matter how bad things get, China will never report a negative GDP number. That would go against their "CCP brings prosperity" narrative and would pop Comrade Xi's bubble of competent leadership. Speaking of bubbles popping, the one most likely to go soon is the Ponzi scheme that is the China property market. All of China's recent moves have been to engineer a slow deflation and soft landing. I highly doubt that will happen, so Xi will do everything to kick the can down the road until he's elected to an unprecedented 3rd term. At that point, he'll become the new Mao and will try to consolidate his hold on power and become President for life. Whether that works, or for how long it works, will be interesting to watch. China is still China, but it's not Mao's China anymore.
The bottom-line is that both China and Russia will keep doing the same dysfunctional things that got them into their current predicaments. And that's why I laugh whenever I hear someone touting their partnership! Yeah, sure, they're partners in the same way one drowning person grabs onto another to keep themselves afloat. Unless one of them is a super-strong swimmer and experienced lifeguard, they're more likely to pull each other under.
And, guess what, neither Russia nor China is a super-strong, experienced lifeguard.
Both Russia and China, viewed in a long-term and macro sense, are trending in a negative direction. Both face huge demographic headwinds from declining birthrates that are unlikely to be alleviated by immigration, or other means, for years to come (if ever). China's problem is worse because of the "one child" policy that wasn't changed until much too late. Russia's problem was less acute but now has been worsened because Russia is unlikely to be attractive to immigrants as long as their economy suffers under sanctions or reparations. But Russia, with a smaller population, has less of a built-in buffer, and so may feel the effects sooner than China. Add to that the brain drain, and exodus of younger Russians, and the Kremlin is facing a major societal challenge.Comrade Jmsuttr (wink), I suspect your post will generate the typical response that the United States economy and dollar are a house of cards. This even though you and I have presented the well-established academic view that having a reserve currency is a burden.
The real estate market in the United States is in a mini-bubble, but this is mostly driven by supply shortages. First, we weren't building enough houses after the 2008-2009 crash. Second, COVID slowed down real estate construction and materials. Outside a few small, desirable areas where foreigners flock, we don't have empty condo buildings. There is far less speculation than what we experienced in the 2000's.
Comrade Jmsuttr (wink), I suspect your post will generate the typical response that the United States economy and dollar are a house of cards. This even though you and I have presented the well-established academic view that having a reserve currency is a burden.
The real estate market in the United States is in a mini-bubble, but this is mostly driven by supply shortages. First, we weren't building enough houses after the 2008-2009 crash. Second, COVID slowed down real estate construction and materials. Outside a few small, desirable areas where foreigners flock, we don't have empty condo buildings. There is far less speculation than what we experienced in the 2000's.I completely agree that the US isn't free of problems, and neither is the EU. But one big difference is the existence of a sizeable private sector with the incentive to find a way to profit from imbalances and govt mistakes. It may take a recession, or even a depression, but the errors and problems will eventually wash themselves out of the system. Also, most Western countries tend to wash out the politicians they hold responsible for the mismanagement. And one other relevant point is that in the EU and US we don't make a habit of putting such private investors in jail, as long as they keep their activities legal and above-board.
Until the invasion happened, I would have included Russia in the list of generally investable markets. Even though the problem of corruption and kleptocracy existed, many corporations and investors had figured out how to navigate those waters. But Putin changed everything and now the Russian economy has zero upside and nearly unlimited downside. Here's a current assessment from Al-Jazeera:
https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2022/5/5/the-kremlin-blinks-first-in-the-geo-economic-war-over-ukraine
China, however, has systemic problems that stem from the CCP's need to maintain a narrative that supports Xi's "Mandate of Heaven" irrespective of real economic conditions. And that's reflected in their need to control everything, from capital flows to property sales to stock market levels. But central control is a practical impossibility in an environment where a near-infinite number of variables means that unintended consequences will almost certainly occur. In a world experiencing generally positive growth a lot of those problems never break above the surface. But, like a Ponzi scheme that runs out of new money, at some point the chickens come home to roost. It's hard to know exactly where China's stall-speed point is, since everything is so opaque and they have many ways to keep bad news under wraps. It's my sense that, like the proverbial Minsky Moment, it'll be something that seems relatively small that'll trigger the next crisis.
Oh yes, and all the "whataboutism" finger-pointing at the US won't change a thing about the negative direction, and likely hard landing, of the Russian and Chinese economies.
https://www.reddit.com/r/UkrainianConflict/comments/ukca7a/fear_of_mobilization_russians_are_leaving_the/
Why? Because Putin is killing Russia's present, just like he's already killed Russia's future.
China, however, has systemic problems that stem from the CCP's need to maintain a narrative that supports Xi's "Mandate of Heaven" irrespective of real economic conditions. And that's reflected in their need to control everything, from capital flows to property sales to stock market levels. But central control is a practical impossibility in an environment where a near-infinite number of variables means that unintended consequences will almost certainly occur. In a world experiencing generally positive growth a lot of those problems never break above the surface. But, like a Ponzi scheme that runs out of new money, at some point the chickens come home to roost. It's hard to know exactly where China's stall-speed point is, since everything is so opaque and they have many ways to keep bad news under wraps. It's my sense that, like the proverbial Minsky Moment, it'll be something that seems relatively small that'll trigger the next crisis.
Oh yes, and all the "whataboutism" finger-pointing at the US won't change a thing about the negative direction, and likely hard landing, of the Russian and Chinese economies.China's economic miracle over the last thirty plus years is nothing but astounding. As you mention, the Chinese government has had an overly-controlling hand on the economy. Market reforms and capitalism are what brought China prosperity. Xi, however, has arrogantly brought back more government control and intervention in the economy to ride out the rough patch.
Many think of economics as some kind of decadent and imperialistic Anglo-American construct. For those who study it, they know its kind of like the gravity of human commerce. Governments can't avoid the inevitable forces of economics.
China's economic miracle over the last thirty plus years is nothing but astounding. As you mention, the Chinese government has had an overly-controlling hand on the economy. Market reforms and capitalism are what brought China prosperity. Xi, however, has arrogantly brought back more government control and intervention in the economy to ride out the rough patch.
Many think of economics as some kind of decadent and imperialistic Anglo-American construct. For those who study it, they know its kind of like the gravity of human commerce. Governments can't avoid the inevitable forces of economics.When a farmer gives a blacksmith meat, milk, or crops, in exchange for a new plow, that's economics. Individual activity, no matter what gobbledygook and complicated intermediate steps are inserted, remains the foundation or "the gravity of human commerce," as you put it. It's fascinating to me that "experts" try to pretend it's anything more than a social science. If it was truly a hard science, like physics, economic prognosticators wouldn't have such a dismal track record for their predictions.
China's economic miracle is undeniable, but the most significant factors that made it possible have either faded or are altogether gone. Some of that is due to natural trends, such as demographic changes (aging, migration to cities, low birthrate, etc.), some of that is due to changes to Deng-era policies, and some of that is due to reactions from foreign countries and companies as they wake up to the true nature of China's leadership.
Low-cost production in Asia has been moving out of China to places like Vietnam, Indonesia, Cambodia, etc. Supply-chain sensitive products have been moving out since the institution of Trump's tariffs, further exacerbated by pandemic lockdowns and disruptions that continue to this day. Hong Kong, once viewed as a safer way to have a piece of the Chinese market, is now just another CCP-controlled metropolis.
In other words, the tide of positive factors and capital flows that once masked all of the bubbles and economic fragilities of China is steadily going out. Xi is like a child trying to use a toy shovel to keep the water on the beach, only to see every attempt end with the water draining into the sand. The end result is that China is stuck in a middle-income trap, from which there is no easy or short-term solution, if ever.
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-09-06/china-s-common-prosperity-goal-ends-in-a-middle-income-trap#.
Anyone who buys into the current crop of China hype would do well to remember the lessons of 1980's Japan. At that time it was Japan that was experiencing "to the moon" growth and was widely expected to supplant the US as the dominant economic power. And China? At that time China hardly merited a second thought. With 20-20 hindsight we now see how drastically such hype can collapse. Luckily for Japan, they managed to grow wealthy enough, on a per capita basis, to have reached escape velocity from the middle income trap. China is unlikely to be so fortunate. Demographic wheels grind slowly, even if other factors are favorable. China's biggest problem is that their leaders, intentionally or unintentionally, have been removing or undermining many of the favorable factors. And, just as the USSR's centrally-planned economy was opaque to outside observers and projected strength, when the dam cracks and breaks it tends to happen suddenly.
IMHO, one of the reasons China has been relatively subdued with respect to the Russia-Ukraine war, offering mostly only token support, is because they know how much is currently on their plate and can't afford to be distracted or waste resources.
To sum up all of the above, because the individual is at the heart of economics, systems that don't value both the individual and that individual's rights (like Russia, the USSR, or the CCP) will be constantly fighting against the tide and, sooner or later, will inevitably fail.
https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2022/3/4/russias-looming-economic-crisis-will-be-worse-than-1991
Q: How does a country that is rich in natural resources, and had a high level of positive potential, turn itself into an economic disaster?
A: Flawed culture + faulty leadership.
P.S. The article also makes some good points as to why countries like India and China, no matter what kind of "help" they may offer, won't be enough to save Russia from its self-destructive path.
https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2022/3/4/russias-looming-economic-crisis-will-be-worse-than-1991
Q: How does a country that is rich in natural resources, and had a high level of positive potential, turn itself into an economic disaster?
A: Flawed culture + faulty leadership.
P.S. The article also makes some good points as to why countries like India and China, no matter what kind of "help" they may offer, won't be enough to save Russia from its self-destructive path.A lot can change quickly. Here's one scenario that would greatly benefit Russia and the globe for that matter.
- Overthrow Putin.
- Promise to make nice.
- Turn on the spigots.
- Overthrow PutinFirst, whether Putin's overthrow would change things depends on who replaces him. A like-for-like swap is unlikely to have much effect. And, as things stand right now, if he's removed (or dies) it's more probable he'd be replaced by a hawkish nationalist rather than a reformer.
After decades of Putin's autocratic and kleptocratic rule, he's either eliminated or driven out anyone who might be a credible reformer. And even high-profile opposition figures, like Navalny, are still cut from the same Moscow-Saint Petersburg, elite-centric, ethnic-Russian nationalist cloth. One of the reasons Russia seems (IMO) doomed to decades of darkness is that there doesn't appear to be anyone, or any credible movement, capable of leading them toward a different path. And it's my sense that the national mindset has been so conditioned by Putinism that they're incapable, at least at this point in time, of changing course. A rough analogy would be that of an addict who needs to hit rock bottom, with all their lies exposed and rationalizations destroyed, as an essential step toward rebuilding.
- Promise to make nice.Second, nobody believes or trusts Russia anymore. Which means promises would be insufficient and some kind of guarantee regime would need to be crafted. I have no idea what kind of guarantees would be deemed sufficient by Ukraine and at-risk countries like Poland, the Baltics, etc. While I try to "never say never," achieving a workable level of trust may prove to be an impossible task, at least in the near-to-medium term.
- Turn on the spigots.Third, while I agree this would be a positive step, it'll be complicated by the need to garnish all or part of the proceeds from energy sales to pay reparations. Lots of moving parts involved and the devil will be in the details.
To sum up, what Russia needs is a radical roots-up reformation. And even with that it'll be decades before any semblance of "normal" relations will return. Sadly, I don't see the necessary antecedent conditions for such a change. To me it seems more likely that Russia, after full or partial defeat in Ukraine, will retreat into isolation, continue on the path of belligerence and NATO-West blaming and, even though exposed as a (conventional) paper tiger, remain dangerous by virtue of their nuclear capability.
https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2022/3/4/russias-looming-economic-crisis-will-be-worse-than-1991The problem with this article is it's already 2-month old. Russia has proved that it's capable of weathering the storm for the time being.
For as long as Europe is buying, Russia will be OK. Not fine, but OK. They're getting a billion per day, that's enough to keep them going. Now with time, as Europe is buying less and less, things will get tougher, but that can take up to a couple of years.
Q: How does a country that is rich in natural resources, and had a high level of positive potential, turn itself into an economic disaster?
A: Flawed culture + faulty leadership..Flawed culture. Yes, with faulty leadership being inevitable effect. All leaders are faulty, but in a democracy they don't usually rule too long (with some exceptions, which are balanced by longstanding democratic traditions). But in the Russian tradition, you can take the best of them and watch them desperately try to stick to power no matter what, descending and degrading into madness and absolutism, unless they're murdered along the way.
Nothing will ever change in Russia unless there is a bulletproof Constitutional and enforcement mechanism prescribing and detailing democratic rotation of power.
If Putin left in 2008, as he was supposed to according to the Constitution, he would've been remembered as one of the greatest leaders ever. He wouldn't have deserved it, but that's another story.
The problem with this article is it's already 2-month old. Russia has proved that it's capable of weathering the storm for the time being.
For as long as Europe is buying, Russia will be OK. Not fine, but OK. They're getting a billion per day, that's enough to keep them going. Now with time, as Europe is buying less and less, things will get tougher, but that can take up to a couple of years.
Flawed culture. Yes, with faulty leadership being inevitable effect. All leaders are faulty, but in a democracy they don't usually rule too long (with some exceptions, which are balanced by longstanding democratic traditions). But in the Russian tradition, you can take the best of them and watch them desperately try to stick to power no matter what, descending and degrading into madness and absolutism, unless they're murdered along the way.
Nothing will ever change in Russia unless there is a bulletproof Constitutional and enforcement mechanism prescribing and detailing democratic rotation of power.
If Putin left in 2008, as he was supposed to according to the Constitution, he would've been remembered as one of the greatest leaders ever. He wouldn't have deserved it, but that's another story.Obviously Russia is bigger, with more resources in reserve, and is dealing with a sanctions regime that is recent and still evolving. Oh yes, and they have nukes. But those differences, and I'm sure more could be named, don't negate the usefulness of the analogy.
Venezuela and Russia are both resource-rich countries, yet both depend heavily on foreign companies to provide the technology and expertise to extract those resources. Those essential companies have, due to sanctions and other reasons, mostly abandoned Venezuela, and the same is happening to Russia. From everything I've read, Venezuela's energy industry is limping along. And they don't have to deal with issues like Siberian winters. So the usefulness of the analogy is that it highlights areas to watch, like whether Russia's oil and gas industries will suffer similar difficulties and declines.
Also, Venezuela continues to sell oil but is constrained by sanctions and is in a weakened bargaining position when buyers like China and India demand discounts. And, whatever funds they get for their oil can only be used to purchase non-sanctioned goods and services. Obviously there's a constant dance to evade the sanctions, but the fact that Venezuela is an economic basket-case is pretty good evidence that the years of isolation have taken their toll.
Has Russia fully arrived at a Venezuela-like state yet? Of course not, and my earlier post wasn't intended to imply or argue that they have, only that their paths and trajectories are similar. Russia is only at the early stages of the process that Venezuela has been burdened with for years and, being bigger and richer to begin with, has more "fat" to burn through before needing to consume muscle and bone. But, with a brain-drain of their brightest and best, and no replenishment from outside, they are truly eating their own seed corn.
About Europe buying Russian oil and gas, that's certainly the near-term scenario but, now that everyone understands what it means to be at the mercy of Russia's "weaponized" energy policy, every European country is looking for alternate supply wherever they can find it. Italy's recent deals with Azerbaijan and Algeria are examples of this. So, while the wheels may turn slowly in some circles, they're still all turning in a direction that's not favorable to Russia and will result in further isolation.
And yes, Russia gets billions for its oil and gas. That sounds great but, because of sanctions they're limited as to what they can do with that money. They can't buy needed semiconductors, as just one example, and I recently read that they're having to cannibalize washing machines to repurpose some of the chips for military use. That certainly doesn't sound like an efficient or sustainable practice. Maybe they should get help from Cuban mechanics. After all, in Havana they've figured out how to keep cars from the 40's and 50's on the road.
How a country declines, by virtue of its own flaws + external sanctions and pressures + faulty leadership, is a process rather than an event. In terms of the progress of that process, two months is nothing. What's relevant is the trajectory, and Russia is clearly trending in a downward, Venezuela-like, direction. With every passing day I see more negative straws piling on the back of the camel and I see nothing on the horizon to suggest any relief or change in the landscape.
PedroMorales
05-18-22, 08:15
Russia has a deep and wide culture. The USA has none, nada.
Venezuela's problems are exasperated by the USA stealing (freezing etc) its financial and other resources.
The rouble is strong, the German economy is in the toilet, all for obeying the USA and its puppets.
American bullshit bla bla, some points responded to for any non American who has a brain
This is a recent short video clip where Mearsheimer clearly explains the extreme danger of current USA policy. To summarize, there are 2 conditions under which Russia will use nukes: (1) someone uses nukes against Russia first; (2) Russia faces threat to its existence. "Threat to existence" is a fuzzy concept, but that is exactly what the USA cheerleaders seems to be hinting at. In particular, humiliating external military defeat that might lead to internal political disintegration sounds like "threat to existence". If you care about Ukraine, then you cannot be hoping for humiliating Russian defeat because of the possibility this causes escalation to nukes. Painful as it will be to the Ukrainians, they need to accept any reasonable settlement with Russia. Which probably means more of south and east Ukraine under Russian control that before.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Z9YOETL3ICc
Russia has clearly shown they don't care about world opinion, so world opinion will not deter them from using nukes.
To me it seems more likely that Russia, after full or partial defeat in Ukraine, will retreat into isolation, continue on the path of belligerence and NATO-West blaming and, even though exposed as a (conventional) paper tiger, remain dangerous by virtue of their nuclear capability.Yes, that's the most likely outcome, as cooler heads have been predicting all along, which is why they warned against trying to pull Ukraine into the Western orbit and thus provoke this war. In other words, Russia with be more like North Korea than before, a thorn in the side of the USA and Western Europe and others. Not so crazy and isolated as North Korea, but vastly more dangerous and with enough of an economy and valuable natural resources to cause far more mischief than North Korea. Note that 60+ years of isolation and sanctions have done nothing to break North Korea's (or Cuba's) defiance of the USA.
First, whether Putin's overthrow would change things depends on who replaces him. A like-for-like swap is unlikely to have much effect. And, as things stand right now, if he's removed (or dies) it's more probable he'd be replaced by a hawkish nationalist rather than a reformer.
.....................................................
After decades of Putin's autocratic and kleptocratic rule, he's either eliminated or driven out anyone who might be a credible reformer. And even high-profile opposition figures, like Navalny, are still cut from the same Moscow-Saint Petersburg, elite-centric, ethnic-Russian nationalist cloth. One of the reasons Russia seems (IMO) doomed to decades of darkness is that there doesn't appear to be anyone, or any credible movement, capable of leading them toward a different path. And it's my sense that the national mindset has been so conditioned by Putinism that they're incapable, at least at this point in time, of changing course. A rough analogy would be that of an addict who needs to hit rock bottom, with all their lies exposed and rationalizations destroyed, as an essential step toward rebuilding..This is all very likely, but I'm a bit more optimistic. A Russian nationalist can politically benefit for a few years from putting things back together, stopping the carnage and getting the economy going again.
I think what extreme nationalist leaders like Putin (and Hitler) benefited from was taking over in a period of chaos. There is only one direction to go from chaos and that is up. Interestingly if you look at crude oil price charts starting from Putin's rise to power in 1999, you will see oil at $20 per barrel rising virtually unstoppable to a price of over $100 per barrel in 2014. I also don't think that the invasion of the Ukraine and the rapid rise in oil prices in 2021 are unconnected events.
Getting back to the question of a new Russian leader. There is certainly a real fear that Russia will be in some form of constant belligerency with NATO and the West. I don't think Russian institutions have improved since 1992. Russian institutions certainly don't appear immediately ready to try another attempt at real democratic progress and free market economics.
My hope is time. The more time that passes from the disintegration of the Soviet Union thirty years ago the more Russia will be able to move forward. Hitler launched his war of aggression twenty years after World War II. Many Germans and certainly the German military were all too willing to avenge the defeat of WWI. The difference is older Russians familiar and somewhat satisfied with life under the Soviets is slowly giving way to younger and more modern Russians. Putin himself is a relic of the Soviet system.
The key is to find a way around a humiliating Russian defeat in the Ukraine or at least the appearance of such. Russian reparations are problematic. I'm also not so sure the Ukrainians will now be satisfied with a draw. I'm not convinced the Biden Administration will be adept at managing the peace.
Russia has a deep and wide culture. The USA has none, nada.
Venezuela's problems are exasperated by the USA stealing (freezing etc) its financial and other resources.
The rouble is strong, the German economy is in the toilet, all for obeying the USA and its puppets.Comrade, you seem to live in a parallel universe.
The United States is a 250 year-old amalgamation of cultures that has the eyes and ears of the world.
Russian culture while amazing hasn't really evolved in 250 years. There is an obvious lack of modernity hindered by a long, long love-hate relationship with the West.
My hope is time. The more time that passes from the disintegration of the Soviet Union thirty years ago the more Russia will be able to move forward. Hitler launched his war of aggression twenty years after World War II. Many Germans and certainly the German military were all too willing to avenge the defeat of WWI. The difference is older Russians familiar and somewhat satisfied with life under the Soviets is slowly giving way to younger and more modern Russians. Putin himself is a relic of the Soviet system.I couldn't agree more.
Russia has a deep and wide culture. The USA has none, nada.
Venezuela's problems are exasperated by the USA stealing (freezing etc) its financial and other resources.
The rouble is strong, the German economy is in the toilet, all for obeying the USA and its puppets.Or did you mean to say "exacerbated" and "culture" instead?
Oh well, your illiteracy aside, both Venezuela and Russia are experiencing the consequences of their own actions. And anyone looking for a foreshadowing of likely future effects on Russia would do well to study the toll sanctions have taken on Venezuela's economy. They've both made their geopolitical beds and now are being compelled to sleep in them. If they have problems with that, they should start by taking a look in the mirror.
As far as Russian culture is concerned, it's actually at the root of their current troubles. Russia's hubris and narcissistic world view has its foundation in a delusional self-image. They have disdain for anything non-Russian and a belief they have a God-given right to rule over other nations, especially those with populations predominantly of Slavic origin.
Actually, when it comes to culture, Kyiv has priority over Moscow as it's the older capital by far and it's where "Kievan Rus" originated, not Moscow. So, by any standard of cultural primacy, Moscow should be paying tribute to Kyiv, not the other way around.
As far as the US is concerned, being a young country, built by immigrants from every corner of the world, we're happy to be an amalgamation of many cultures. One of the benefits of that unique history is that it tends to ameliorate, minimize, and eliminate the worst ideas and tendencies of any single culture. Is it perfect? Absolutely not! But there's a reason why there's a waiting line to get in, and it's because many still see it as the quintessential Land of Opportunity.
What opportunity is there in Russia? You're either a member of the St. Petersburg-Moscow elite or you're a peasant who exists for the sole purpose of being used and exploited by that elite. Russia's problem is that, while past leaders (Tsars and USSR dictators) had an ample supply of cannon fodder, that demographic reality no longer exists. Not only are they running short of exploitable military-age men, but they're dealing with a huge exodus of their best and brightest.
Russia, like Putin himself, is sick and getting sicker.
P.S. As far as Germany is concerned, they've been joined at the hip with Russia for years. Serves them right if their economy is suffering as a result. The sooner Europe cuts any lines that tie them to the sinking Russian ship, the better.
This is a recent short video clip where Mearsheimer clearly explains the extreme danger of current USA policy. To summarize, there are 2 conditions under which Russia will use nukes: (1) someone uses nukes against Russia first; (2) Russia faces threat to its existence. "Threat to existence" is a fuzzy concept, but that is exactly what the USA cheerleaders seems to be hinting at. In particular, humiliating external military defeat that might lead to internal political disintegration sounds like "threat to existence". If you care about Ukraine, then you cannot be hoping for humiliating Russian defeat because of the possibility this causes escalation to nukes. Painful as it will be to the Ukrainians, they need to accept any reasonable settlement with Russia. Which probably means more of south and east Ukraine under Russian control that before..Is that it relies on at least one dubious (if not provably false) assumption. And that is that there is any settlement that will satisfy Russia in the long run. They started this war with the aim of taking ALL of Ukraine. They failed mostly because their "intel" that a sizeable portion of the population would greet them as liberators was dead (pun intended) wrong. So what basis is there for a school of thought that Russia will ever be fully satisfied by taking (only) Donetsk, Luhansk, and other such areas? Such a view is naive in the extreme, IMO, or willfully ignorant.
Based on multiple statements by Putin, and others, a better reality-based assessment is that Russian ambition is to reclaim territory they feel is theirs by historical and divine right. Which means that any agreement or armistice that falls short of that goal is likely doomed to failure.
But, but, they have NUKES! Yes, that's absolutely true. And they'll still have nukes if they decide to "denazify" Poland, Finland, or the Baltics. Or maybe start with non-NATO countries like Moldova? The problem with the nuke argument is that it gives the aggressor carte blanche, and Putin knows this and doesn't hesitate to rattle his nuclear saber.
So where does it stop? Mearsheimer seems to believe it's all the fault of NATO and the West and that Russia would play nice if they weren't provoked. I don't think history and evidence back up that position. For one thing, it denies or minimizes Russia's agency over, and responsibility for, its own decisions and actions. The rivalry between the US and the USSR (and now Russia) is such that each has been provoking the other for decades. I'm not defending any specific action by NATO or the West, merely observing that Russia AFFIRMATIVELY chose to invade, and they CHOSE to launch shells and missiles at targets they knew were civilian. Putin and Russia will go down in history as war criminals, and not just because NATO or the US says so. There will be an innumerable number of voices that will join in a chorus of condemnation.
All the above means that Mearsheimer's proposed solution doesn't stand a snowball's chance in hell of happening. And one ironclad piece of evidence to that effect is that Ukraine will never accept it, and there's no political will to pressure them to do so. And, even if there was, Ukraine would destroy any such pressure in the court of public opinion as they're hugely winning the information warfare battle.
As to how things will actually play out, I'd be foolish to predict since there are so many variables still in play. But I will share an insight that I thought was a good one. And by good I mean that it's based on what's actually happening rather than someone's idea of what "should" happen.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/the-ingenious-strategy-that-could-win-the-war-for-ukraine-20220517-p5alz4.html
The article, authored by a retired Australian general, points out that Ukraine's strategy so far has been one of "corrosion" with respect to Russia's ability to fight. Rather than pushing for overt victories, which they'd probably find difficult to achieve, they're wearing down the enemy while undermining that enemy's ability and will to fight. Will that prove successful over the long haul? Who knows? But it's the kind of low-key strategy that robs Putin of escalation opportunities. His army is grinding to a halt due to its own logistical and leadership failures, and even everyday Russians are starting to recognize that fact. Russian military bloggers, as just one example, have recently savaged the army's botched river crossing, in which they reportedly lost hundreds of vehicles and troops. Nobody's buying the "NATO did that" BS excuse. And at the same time, many conscription offices are being firebombed across Russia.
I think Putin knows he has a weak hand and that's one reason he passed up a prime opportunity to mobilize and escalate, during the recent Victory Day celebration. Instead, he delivered a nothingburger of a speech that left analysts, inside and outside Russia, scratching their heads.
I can't predict the future, and neither can Mearsheimer, but I'm not buying what he's selling.
This is all very likely, There is only one direction to go from chaos and that is up. Interestingly if you look at crude oil price charts starting from Putin's rise to power in 1999, you will see oil at $20 per barrel rising virtually unstoppable to a price of over $100 per barrel in 2014. I also don't think that the invasion of the Ukraine and the rapid rise in oil prices in 2021 are unconnected events.
Getting back to the question Hitler launched his war of aggression twenty years after World War II. Many Germans and certainly the German military were all too willing to avenge the defeat of WWI. Where Hitler failed to destroy Russia and grab control of their natural resources, the USA can succeed.
This is all very likely, but I'm a bit more optimistic.I didn't include the rest of your post in the quote above because, no matter how rational and hopeful it may sound, I fear it's largely irrelevant.
That's because I believe this war involves issues that far predate Putin, and go back much further than even the USSR period. Here's a thread that, while a bit of a long read, delves deeply into the cultural and historical underpinnings of the conflict:
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1516162437455654913.html
After reading this it became clear to me that Russia is not what it is because of Putin. Rather Putin is what he is because of Russia, and is the product of all the cultural, literary, and religious traditions that form the Russian consciousness. Putin is merely the current instrument of that consciousness and, when he's gone, Russia will choose another. Whatever the solution is, if one even exists, it won't be one that only touches the surface and addresses only the current state of affairs. I can't fathom what would be required to change the entire soul, and deep-seated world view, of an entire nation. Yet that might be exactly what's required. That realization, unfortunately, is why I can't share your optimism.
Reiner Otto
05-19-22, 06:41
The linked article is not bad. However, it neglects the opinion of the "simple" Russian or Ukrainian.
During my years living and working in St. Petersburg, in the year 1998, I met the boss of a German social org from Hamburg, providing support to people in SPb.
He told me, they had arranged a meeting of former soldiers of the "Wehrmacht" (former German Army) and the Red Army, fighting against each other during siege of SPb.
I was very surprised, but were informed, they drank vodka and beer together, and were singing their old songs.
Asking, how that was possible, I was told: The soldiers said, we had to shoot each other, because otherwise the Gestapo or the NKWD had shot us.
There might be aversions of some Russians against Ukraine; but I think, this is not common private opinion.
Is that it relies on at least one dubious (if not provably false) assumption. And that is that there is any settlement that will satisfy Russia in the long run.
You write about realism but you don't understand what it is and in fact you are another idealist.
Humans are territorial animals. Territorial borders are set largely by assessment of comparative strength of competitors for territory. To take territory from an existing possessor requires being considerably stronger, because no one gives up territory if they can avoid it. These rules about territory apply everywhere in nature. Open conflict occurs when there is uncertainty as to comparative fighting strength (both bodily and mental strength aka willpower or determination). Animals always understand the rules, so senseless fighting (outcome obvious but neither side relents and thus both sides suffer) is rare in nature. Senseless fighting is more common among humans, because mental strength is such a big factor, and far more difficult to assess mental than physical strength of the opponents. In particular, fighting to death over ideologies (like Ukrainian versus Russian language) is unheard of with animals but common with humans.
Neither I nor Mearsheimer approves (or disapproves) of Russia (or Ukraine or USA), any more than we approve or disapprove of animals fighting over territory. Realism is not about morality. It is about understanding what is actually happening. By understanding territorial conflicts, we can resolve them peacefully, so as to minimize damage to everyone concerned.
Russia considered Ukraine an extension of its territory, same as USA considers Canada an extension of its territory. If Putin or the Russian military leadership as a whole had wanted to seize all of Ukraine, they could have easily done so in 2014. Instead, they deliberately limited themselves to taking only Crimea, as a punishment to Ukraine and a warning to other FSU states. They were careful not to put uniformed troops in Donbas and the Minsk accord assumed Donbas remained part of a federalized Ukraine, precisely because Russia was trying to send a message that they respect borders and they want others to respect them. This current war is another dose of punishment and warning because Ukraine didn't get the message the first time.
As it turns out, Russia's fighting strength may not be sufficient to justify the territory it claims, and it is obvious that Russia recognizes this and is already in retreat to some extent. But a powerful and lightly wounded animal that lost a fight and is now retreating is extremely dangerous if pursued, because eventually it will reach a point where it refuses to give up more territory and then it will fight ferociously, to the death if necessary. That means nuclear weapons in the current case of Russia. And if USA / NATO responds to tactical nukes with the same, then strategic nukes is the next step.
The incoherency of your position becomes very clear if you start proposing a full-on USA involvement in Ukraine. Why not? Ukraine is a sovereign country so why can't Ukraine invite the USA military to move in with USA aircraft flown by USA pilots, etc? Unless you are a complete fool, something in your stomach will turn at this idea.
Whereas my and Mearsheimer's position is fully coherent. Like animals protecting our territory, we know there are borders, the borders are somewhat fuzzy, the borders grow and shrink as fighting strength grows and shrinks. We sense, at an intuitive level, that we are not willing to risk nuclear war for Ukraine, but we will risk it at the Poland border. And reality corresponds to our realist understanding of the world. Still no USA / NATO troops or aircraft with USA / NATO pilots in Ukraine, because USA / NATO military commanders are mostly realists, and they understand at the animal intuition level that is pushing too far. Unfortunately, at the conscious level, USA / NATO and Ukraine political, as opposed to military, leaders are all thinking in idealist rather than realist terms, and this led to misunderstanding.
If Ukraine won't take a settlement, then the outcome is obvious: stalemate. Russia digs in and holds south and east Ukraine, most of which will be a destroyed wasteland. Subdued fighting continues for years. USA uses Ukraine to test new weapons technologies. Russia uses war to justify strong central government under Putin's successor (he will surely die of hos various sicknesses soon). Ukraine is impoverished. (Your prediction of Western countries pouring money into Ukraine after the war ends is laughable. Janet Yellen just yesterday started making noises that seizing Russian foreign reserves is illegal, in main Kyiv thread there are comments that Poles are already getting tired of their Ukrainian refugees, Europe going into recession and still depends on Russian gas and other natural resources, divisiveness by Hungary and other countries resentful of Ukraine getting so much money, plus Ukrainian politicians will steal any aid the country does get, etc).
PedroMorales
05-19-22, 10:00
Comrade, you seem to live in a parallel universe.
The United States is a 250 year-old amalgamation of cultures that has the eyes and ears of the world.
Russian culture while amazing hasn't really evolved in 250 years. There is an obvious lack of modernity hindered by a long, long love-hate relationship with the West.America has no culture, bar song and dance, Silicone Valley, Johnny Depp and snorting coke. The major sources of Western culture are all in Western Europe. Yours is the culture of Gladiator, blood and dildoes.
I am only replying to your note here as the others are too long winded and pompous to bother with. They do, however, show what imperialist pigs Americans are, a truly vile bunch of rejects, who are now trying to beg for oil from Venezuela, a country they ruined.
As regards a clown going on about my English, one of several languages I speak as a second tongue, I cannot edit posts here as American perverts in the Philippines board got me moderated for using the word skank to describe, well, skanks. They too show the same ignorant arrogance.
Don't let your loud mouths and loud Hawaii t shirts fool you. You are loathed by those who have not dumbed down.
As far as Russian culture is concerned, it's actually at the root of their current troubles. Russia's hubris and narcissistic world view has its foundation in a delusional self-image. They have disdain for anything non-Russian and a belief they have a God-given right to rule over other nations, especially those with populations predominantly of Slavic origin.Russian history and oddly the present is littered with this construct that Russia is the Big Daddy and overseer of the Slavic peoples. Throw into it some ancient mysticism from the Orthodox church and you are stuck in the perverted past.
Most of us know part of the origins of World War I. Russia's historic desire to expand West. Their belief in their right and prerogative to "protect" the peoples of the Balkans.
Strangely, Tito and the Balkan Slavs didn't run to Big Daddy Russia after World War II.
You write about realism but you don't understand what it is and in fact you are another idealist.
Humans are territorial animals. Territorial borders are set largely by assessment of comparative strength of competitors for territory. To take territory from an existing possessor requires being considerably stronger, because no one gives up territory if they can avoid it. These rules about territory apply everywhere in nature. Open conflict occurs when there is uncertainty as to comparative fighting strength (both bodily and mental strength aka willpower or determination). Animals always understand the rules, so senseless fighting (outcome obvious but neither side relents and thus both sides suffer) is rare in nature. Senseless fighting is more common among humans, because mental strength is such a big factor, and far more difficult to assess mental than physical strength of the opponents. In particular, fighting to death over ideologies (like Ukrainian versus Russian language) is unheard of with animals but common with humans...I define reality as things that are actually happening, not how I think things "should be," but the facts and evidence on the ground. You make repeated reference to Mearsheimer's world view, which you obviously share. But confusing a world view with reality is exactly the same fatal error that Russia made when they invaded. In their mistaken world view, Ukraine is just a subset of Greater Russia, and of course Ukrainians "should" recognize that fact and welcome the "liberators" benevolently sent by the Kremlin. But reality always has the final say, as tens of thousands of dead Russian soldiers can attest.
I'm not sure how you came to the conclusion that I'm proposing greater US involvement. I propose nothing, I merely observe, comment on those observations, and suggest possible extrapolations from what's currently happening. And I do my best to focus on the tides rather than the waves. And right now the tide is almost entirely moving against Russia. If or when that changes, I'll do my best to make accurate observations of that new reality. I don't see that happening any time soon, if ever, but that's simply an opinion.
Likewise, your and Mearsheimer's world view about humans as territorial animals, which seems to me to be essentially a "Law of the Jungle" view, is an opinion, nothing more. You're certainly entitled to it and I simply have no inclination to debate it because, as I stated above, my focus is on the current, observable, reality of facts on the ground.
Right now, those facts include a vast amount of money and equipment being funneled into Ukraine from NATO and Western countries. Could that change at some point? Yes, certainly. But that tide hasn't changed and is flowing decisively in Ukraine's direction. And it's worth considering that much of what's happening may not stem from any great love or affinity for Ukraine, but perhaps be driven by fear (or hate) of Russia and a desire to see Russian aggression defeated and Russia itself crippled. But that latter point is simply one theory as to why some countries are helping. The "why" of things is always open to debate, whereas the "what" is objectively observable.
Mearsheimer, IMO, superimposes his view of the "why" on the "what" and conflates the two. All his (and your) claims that his theories and world view constitute objective reality simply fall flat except, of course, to those that share them.
As with any theory, Mearsheimer's might prove to be correct. I don't personally think so, but I could be wrong. It's reality that always wins out in the end, and separates the wheat from the chaff. That's where my primary focus is, and any theory that doesn't account for, or contradicts, observable facts and evidence isn't worth my time.
Is that it relies on at least one dubious (if not provably false) assumption. And that is that there is any settlement that will satisfy Russia in the long run. They started this war with the aim of taking ALL of Ukraine. They failed mostly because their "intel" that a sizeable portion of the population would greet them as liberators was dead (pun intended) wrong. So what basis is there for a school of thought that Russia will ever be fully satisfied by taking (only) Donetsk, Luhansk, and other such areas? Such a view is naive in the extreme, IMO, or willfully ignorant.
Based on multiple statements by Putin, and others, a better reality-based assessment is that Russian ambition is to reclaim territory they feel is theirs by historical and divine right. Which means that any agreement or armistice that falls short of that goal is likely doomed to failure..Mearsheimer's arguments sounds an awfully lot like "Hey if you just give Hitler Austria, Czechoslovakia and maybe a piece of Poland, that will make the ol' boy happy."
I wouldn't totally discount his point of view. You earlier mentioned Russian reparations to the Ukraine. The West has to be very careful about how the peace is built. In fact, having Turkey engaged as a mediator might not be a bad thing. You don't want it to appear that the West is imposing a punitive peace on the Russians.
The Ukrainian "corrosion" strategy is interesting analysis. It's not entirely a new concept. I believe the North Vietnamese employed a similar strategy. They made the USA And French earlier pay such a price that they simply packed up and left. I think by all accounts the Tet Offensive in 1968 was not an attempt to advance and actually hold ground. It was a strategic victory in that it corroded the United States' will to fight. I think at some point the North Vietnamese had swung global opinion to their favor.
The problem I see is will the Russians simply pack up and leave both physically and emotionally. Will they give up on the idea of controlling the Ukraine in one form or another?
Not to be glib, but it's like a divorce where one former partner tries to continue controlling and manipulating the other. In this case, the other partner is clearly saying "we have moved on."
There might be aversions of some Russians against Ukraine; but I think, this is not common private opinion.Yes, I wouldn't give too much credence to Russian TV working girls. (I'm not directing this pejorative comment specifically at the Russian female commentator in the clip below. It is directed at all of them.)
You write about realism but you don't understand what it is and in fact you are another idealist.
Humans are territorial animals. Territorial borders are set largely by assessment of comparative strength of competitors for territory. To take territory from an existing possessor requires being considerably stronger, because no one gives up territory if they can avoid it. These rules about territory apply everywhere in nature. Open conflict occurs when there is uncertainty as to comparative fighting strength (both bodily and mental strength aka willpower or determination). Animals always understand the rules, so senseless fighting (outcome obvious but neither side relents and thus both sides suffer) is rare in nature. Senseless fighting is more common among humans, because mental strength is such a big factor, and far more difficult to assess mental than physical strength of the opponents. In particular, fighting to death over ideologies (like Ukrainian versus Russian language) is unheard of with animals but common with humans.
Neither I nor Mearsheimer approves (or disapproves) of Russia (or Ukraine or USA), any more than we approve or disapprove of animals fighting over territory. Realism is not about morality. It is about understanding what is actually happening. By understanding territorial conflicts, we can resolve them peacefully, so as to minimize damage to everyone concerned...Unlike animals, most humans hold a concept of good and evil, right versus wrong.
Your post started off well enough with your analogies to territory in the animal kingdom. But then, you digressed in comparing Russia's relationship to the Ukraine with the United State's relationship with Canada. There is nothing remotely comparable. It's because Western Democracies can cooperate and work together for mutual betterment.
Mearsheimer has some points to consider. I'm not sure they are the points you have gleaned.
Where Hitler failed to destroy Russia and grab control of their natural resources, the USA can succeed.In the near-term, you might be looking at Chinese petroleum executives all over Moscow. I think the Chinese will be all over the Moscow clubs sniffing some of that fine Russian pussy. Perhaps Gazprom Neft, Rosneft and Tatneft, can become Gazprom Snift, Rossnift and so on.
America has no culture, bar song and dance, Silicone Valley, Johnny Depp and snorting coke. The major sources of Western culture are all in Western Europe. Yours is the culture of Gladiator, blood and dildoes.Democracy is kind of a big cultural thing. I hear it's catching on. You might want to actually try it.
PedroMorales
05-19-22, 18:04
California, New Mexico, Texas etc, m stolen at the point of a gun from Mexico.
"Pity Mexico, so far from God, so near to ther United States."
Go off and eat a dozen of your horrible hot dogs (German, as nothing is American, bar shit like Coca Cola) I see your scum are invading Somalia again. The sooner open season is declared, the better.
Unlike animals, most humans hold a concept of good and evil, right versus wrong.
Your post started off well enough with your analogies to territory in the animal kingdom. But then, you digressed in comparing Russia's relationship to the Ukraine with the United State's relationship with Canada. There is nothing remotely comparable. It's because Western Democracies can cooperate and work together for mutual betterment.
Mearsheimer has some points to consider. I'm not sure they are the points you have gleaned.
America has no culture, bar song and dance, Silicone Valley, Johnny Depp and snorting coke. The major sources of Western culture are all in Western Europe. Yours is the culture of Gladiator, blood and dildoes.
I am only replying to your note here as the others are too long winded and pompous to bother with. They do, however, show what imperialist pigs Americans are, a truly vile bunch of rejects, who are now trying to beg for oil from Venezuela, a country they ruined.
As regards a clown going on about my English, one of several languages I speak as a second tongue, I cannot edit posts here as American perverts in the Philippines board got me moderated for using the word skank to describe, well, skanks. They too show the same ignorant arrogance.
Don't let your loud mouths and loud Hawaii t shirts fool you. You are loathed by those who have not dumbed down.Like the jealous critics of dominant sports teams, you love to engage in masturbatory anti-American critiques, grasping at whatever straws your feeble imagination can conjure up.
Meanwhile, like the dominant force it is, the US just laughs off such farcical comments and continues to outperform. It must really suck to be you as you watch US-led NATO increase its presence and influence in Europe. As I predicted early on, in this very forum, Sweden and Finland have applied for NATO membership. At the same time, it's being reported that Poland and the Baltic states are requesting an additional 20,000 NATO troops for each country (total 80,000). Since a significant proportion of those troops will be American, get ready for an upcoming boom of American babies in Eastern Europe.
America has never given two shits for those who are envious and the response has ever been, and will continue to be, moving onward and upward on a trajectory of success. Meanwhile, America's closest rivals (China and Russia) are demonstrably in decline.
P.S. Nice try to blame the admins for your own deficiencies. Checking the spelling of "culture" is simply an elementary exercise in proofreading, which the "preview post" button provides unlimited opportunity to do. And using the wrong word entirely (exasperated vice exacerbated) is an error that goes beyond proofreading. But that's ok, blaming others is one of the character traits you've demonstrated, so it's not a surprise.
California, New Mexico, Texas etc, m stolen at the point of a gun from Mexico.
"Pity Mexico, so far from God, so near to ther United States."
Go off and eat a dozen of your horrible hot dogs (German, as nothing is American, bar shit like Coca Cola) I see your scum are invading Somalia again. The sooner open season is declared, the better.Since America's past is causing you to hyperventilate, and America's present is giving you high blood pressure, it stands to reason that America's positive and dominant future is about to cause you a debilitating stroke!
California, New Mexico, Texas etc, m stolen at the point of a gun from Mexico.
"Pity Mexico, so far from God, so near to ther United States."I knew someone would introduce the often repeated but not entirely thought through bad history of the USA-Mexican border.
The few Mexicans that lived in California, New Mexico and Texas didn't give a shit about the ineffective dictatorship in Mexico. The Mexicans in Texas fought Santa Anna. They are buried at the Alamo and other battle sites.
Now if you want to bring up the Native-Americans, they got screwed by European settlement. That was the age of conquest and about that time Russia was invading the Eastern lands inhabited by the Tatars and other peoples.
I suppose you can try to make a 21st century case that Tzarina Catherine the Great conquered the Ukraine in the 1700's. Thereby, Russia has a right to claim the Ukrainian's deference and obedience for all eternity.
This is an interesting thread if we don't count a few idiots, useful and otherwise, LOL.
However, please consider that with all this historical and cultural diggings you might unnecessarily complicate things. Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar, and old-fashioned colonialism is also just that. Colonialism.
Yes, Russia feels that it's entitled to Ukraine. And yes, it hurts the collective Russian psyche that after all these years, Ukraine doesn't want to do anything with them anymore. But there is more to this insanity.
1. After the comparatively painless dissolution of the USSR, Russia is the last colonial power on Earth. Losing colonies is never easy (remember France clinging to Alger merely 50 years ago). Russia's pain from the USSR dissolution was dulled by the fact that most of CIS countries remained Russia's clients states. Ukraine is very different.
2. Russia lives and breathes in terms of geopolitics. It wants to be physically surrounded by satellites that would provide a natural shield to Russia proper. Russia has never been interested in far away colonies in Africa, South East Asia or the Americas. It wants its vassals to be close.
3. Letting Ukraine depart Russia's "sphere of influence" is a huge domestic problem as well. A strong, prosperous, democratic and independent Ukraine is a direct threat to Putin's absolute power. It's too close.
4. Finally, Putin has devolved (evolved?) from a thieving tyrant into a madman. Because one can't not be a madman to start this war.
PedroMorales
05-20-22, 07:54
Your collective comments are not worth reading because you are American and, as you show, ignorant and you think your armed might makes you right. The Nazis thought the same and the Red Army, who defeated them, hated them for it. You are a malign force in the world, nothing to offer but sexual diseases, Coca Cola and porn.
Go check out the American politics thread to see how vacuous you all are. It should really have shit tagged on to the title.
I cannot think of anything more generically repulsive than Americans.
On the positive side, the surrender of your Nazis in Mariupol continues. A surrender not an evacuation as your fake media call it. I'd ask you to enjoy the Cannes film festival but that idiot Zelensky is all over it, trying to fry European brains to make them as mushy as what passes for American brains.
Losers. Hookers should charge an American / lard excess free for dealing with you lot.
Your collective comments are not worth reading because you are American and, as you show, ignorant and you think your armed might makes you right. The Nazis thought the same and the Red Army, who defeated them, hated them for it. You are a malign force in the world, nothing to offer but sexual diseases, Coca Cola and porn.
Go check out the American politics thread to see how vacuous you all are. It should really have shit tagged on to the title.
I cannot think of anything more generically repulsive than Americans.
On the positive side, the surrender of your Nazis in Mariupol continues. A surrender not an evacuation as your fake media call it. I'd ask you to enjoy the Cannes film festival but that idiot Zelensky is all over it, trying to fry European brains to make them as mushy as what passes for American brains.
Losers. Hookers should charge an American / lard excess free for dealing with you lot.It's about 60 km from the border and an easy day trip from the Russian city of Rostov-on-Don. And yet, here we are at nearly three months into the war and the legendary (in their own minds) Russian army is STILL not in complete control.
Maybe you should check in with your Russkiy overlords because there's a high level of dissatisfaction and disgust among Russian bloggers and commentators that the "special operation" has taken so long and accomplished so little, especially where Mariupol is concerned.
Meanwhile, Russian troops have turned tail and run like scared rabbits away from Kyiv, and now the same is happening around Kharkhiv. In fact Russia is performing so badly that even on Russian state television the negative comments are starting (video length = 1 min 32 sec, English subs):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xF6TXAIe1tc
Since media messaging in Russia is tightly controlled, and since this commentator hasn't been tossed in jail, it's logical to conclude that the Kremlin wants to shape their messaging to include the possibility of less than optimal results, which is simply a euphemism for defeat.
BTW, the commentator warns against the dangers of "informational tranquilisers," so I'm guessing he had you, and your ilk, in mind.
P.S. Keep hitting your head against the brick wall of the US with your anti-American screeds. We don't even notice, unless it's to laugh at your own blood streaming down your face. Putin has guaranteed that the US will be ascendant for decades to come, while Russia spirals downward into an abyss of their own making.
P. P.S. One great thing Russia has gotten from this war is a killer (pun intended) motto. How does "Remember the Moskva!" sound? Pretty good, I think. But feel free to come up with another one, whatever floats your boat.
BrasilSoccer0
05-20-22, 19:41
So then do you secretly enjoy it when terrorists attack america? In your mind is it justified?
America has no culture, bar song and dance, Silicone Valley, Johnny Depp and snorting coke. The major sources of Western culture are all in Western Europe. Yours is the culture of Gladiator, blood and dildoes.
I am only replying to your note here as the others are too long winded and pompous to bother with. They do, however, show what imperialist pigs Americans are, a truly vile bunch of rejects, who are now trying to beg for oil from Venezuela, a country they ruined.
As regards a clown going on about my English, one of several languages I speak as a second tongue, I cannot edit posts here as American perverts in the Philippines board got me moderated for using the word skank to describe, well, skanks. They too show the same ignorant arrogance.
Don't let your loud mouths and loud Hawaii t shirts fool you. You are loathed by those who have not dumbed down.
You are a malign force in the world, nothing to offer but sexual diseases, Coca Cola and porn.The great thing is you can pour Coca-Cola on any STD and kill it. As far as porn, I have a penchant for watching the natural beauties from Eastern Europe especially the girls from Russia and the Ukraine.
Russian Loren Strawberry is very nice.
https://twitter.com/lorenstrawberr1
PedroMorales
05-20-22, 20:44
So then do you secretly enjoy it when terrorists attack america? In your mind is it justified?Americans are the biggest terrorists on the planet. American soldiers have committed unspeakable crimes in Iraq, Afghanistan, raping children, killing entire families. The invasion of Iraq was an actual war crime, a crime against the peace, built on a tissue of lies, as was the destruction of Yugoslavia, Syria, Libya, etc etc either directly or through their puppets. You only have to read the be s here or in a few of the other stupid shit threads.
As regards the liberation of Mariupol, compare it to how the American vermin flattened Fallujah and Raqqa. Americans are the new Hitler's Willing Executioners. Ukraine is a mess because of America and Victoria Fuck the EU Nuland.
I knew someone would introduce the often repeated but not entirely thought through bad history of the USA-Mexican border.
The few Mexicans that lived in California, New Mexico and Texas didn't give a shit about the ineffective dictatorship in Mexico. The Mexicans in Texas fought Santa Anna. They are buried at the Alamo and other battle sites.
Now if you want to bring up the Native-Americans, they got screwed by European settlement. That was the age of conquest and about that time Russia was invading the Eastern lands inhabited by the Tatars and other peoples.
I suppose you can try to make a 21st century case that Tzarina Catherine the Great conquered the Ukraine in the 1700's. Thereby, Russia has a right to claim the Ukrainian's deference and obedience for all eternity.Whataboutism is the only refuge at the moment for the Russophiles and / or America haters among us, in ISG, and even within the borders of the US. In this case the whatabouts go back centuries. It's all a debate fallacy, or a take on the ad hominem called the tu quoque fallacy while the topic of discussion is entirely avoided.
https://www.thoughtco.com/tu-quoque-logical-fallacy-1692568#text=Tu%20 quoque%20 is%20 a%20 type,%22 a%20 tu%20 quoque%20 argument. %22.
It's a....Just a message of appreciation. I have enjoyed reading your blogging here, and many of the links you have been sharing have been extremely insightful. So much so, that I'm actually ok with Comrade Morales deranged ravings, since it prompts another superb rebuttal from yourself with good sources and reading materials.
It's about 60 km f.Azovstal is over.
Moscow, May 20. / TASS /. https://tass.ru/armiya-i-opk/14689499.
"Russian Defense Minister General of the Army Sergei Shoigu reported to Russian President Vladimir Putin on the completion of the operation and the complete liberation of the Azovstal plant and Mariupol from Ukrainian militants.
This was announced on Friday by the official representative of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, Major General Igor Konashenkov. "On the completion of the operation and the complete liberation of the plant and the city of Mariupol from Ukrainian militants, Russian Defense Minister General of the Army Sergei Shoigu reported to Russian President Vladimir Putin," Konashenkov said. According to him, the territory of the plant, where a group of Ukrainian militants of the Nazi formation "Azov" has been blocked since April 21, has been completely liberated.
More than 500 militants from the factory as part of the last group surrendered on Friday. "Today, May 20, the last group of 531 militants surrendered," Konashenkov said.
"The so-called "commander" of the Nazis" Azov "because of the hatred of the Mariupol residents and the desire of the townspeople to punish him for numerous atrocities, was taken out of the territory of the plant in a special armored car," the Russian Defense Ministry said.
According to Konashenkov, the underground facilities of the enterprise, in which the militants hid, came under the full control of the RF Armed Forces.
"In total, since May 16 of this year, during the operation, 2,439 Azov Nazis and servicemen of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, blocked on the territory of the plant, laid down their arms and surrendered," said a representative of the Russian Defense Ministry."
Now, the Ukronazis can get back to winning the war are finishing off the rebellion.
America has no culture, bar song and dance, Silicone Valley, Johnny Depp and snorting coke. The major sources of Western culture are all in Western Europe. Yours is the culture of Gladiator, blood and dildoes.
.I agree with you. America has no culture because it is beyond that. It is an idea. Let's look at how culture is defined.
Culture: the arts, customs, lifestyles, background, and habits that characterize a particular society or nation.
- The US is a melting pot of different customs, backgrounds, etc. Nothing clearly sticks out as out 'culture' at this point unless you can consider consumerism, grilling, solo cup keggers, and small town America Football Friday nights a culture (actually the last two are unique!).
I suggest a better way to characterize America (I. E. The US), is as an idea or ethos. Let's look at that definition.
Ethos: the character or fundamental values of a person, people, culture, or movement.
- This has more resonance. When immigrants think of America, they think of opportunity, which is core to our ethos. The American Dream is the national ethos of the United States, the set of ideals (democracy, rights, liberty, individualism, entrepreneurship, opportunity and equality) in which freedom includes the opportunity for prosperity and success, as well as an upward social mobility for the family and children, achieved through hard work in a society with few barriers (or less than other countries at any rate).
- Now, the US is FAR, FAR from perfect, but if you are a hard worker and want a leveler playing ground than virtually any other place than the world you should come here.
-Chicago.
Your collective comments are not worth reading because you are American and, as you show, ignorant and you think your armed might makes you right.
On the positive side, the surrender of your Nazis in Mariupol continues. A surrender not an evacuation as your fake media call it. I'd ask you to enjoy the Cannes film festival but that idiot Zelensky is all over it, trying to fry European brains to make them as mushy as what passes for American On another positive side, the Russian movie "Tchaykovsky's wife" will compete for the Palm the'or at Cannes.
Looks like some cracks in the NATO.
PedroMorales
05-21-22, 00:12
You were going well until you fucked up. Gallia in tres pars divisus est, Gaul is divided into three parts and so should your post have been.
1. USA has no culture beyond song and dance trash and Epstein.
2. America is not an idea. Americans have no ideas beyond a hamburger (Think Hamburg). I will grant you "small town America Football Friday nights a culture" but that now is mostly Matt Damon Hollywood shit.
3. The American dream. Fuck that shit. Let's trade nukes.
Of all the very many Americans I have met and worked with, I have respect for less than 1% of them and I am far from unique in that. Of that 1%, I have a lot of respect for them. But the perverts who post pics of their cum on the Philippines board, give me a break.
I've just spent a less than enjoyable month in Northern Finland, salmon fishing on the Teno River. And sharing my experiences with wolverines and brown bears made my holiday less than perfect (though the salmon were perfect, God bless Arctic warfare). Let's just say Finnish hospitals are expensive; be insured. Another week or so and I should be recovered. In the meantime, God Bles Russia.
I agree with you. America has no culture because it is beyond that. It is an idea. Let's look at how culture is defined.
Culture: the arts, customs, lifestyles, background, and habits that characterize a particular society or nation.
- The US is a melting pot of different customs, backgrounds, etc. Nothing clearly sticks out as out 'culture' at this point unless you can consider consumerism, grilling, solo cup keggers, and small town America Football Friday nights a culture (actually the last two are unique!).
I suggest a better way to characterize America (I. E. The US), is as an idea or ethos. Let's look at that definition.
Ethos: the character or fundamental values of a person, people, culture, or movement.
Americans are the biggest terrorists on the planet. American soldiers have committed unspeakable crimes in Iraq, Afghanistan, raping children, killing entire families. The invasion of Iraq was an actual war crime, a crime against the peace, built on a tissue of lies, as was the destruction of Yugoslavia, Syria, Libya, etc etc either directly or through their puppets. You only have to read the be s here or in a few of the other stupid shit threads.
As regards the liberation of Mariupol, compare it to how the American vermin flattened Fallujah and Raqqa. Americans are the new Hitler's Willing Executioners. Ukraine is a mess because of America and Victoria Fuck the EU Nuland.Thanks to your suck-buddy Putin, American troops are going to be all over Europe soon, even more (tens and maybe hundreds of thousands) than they already are. Also, with the Euro-Dollar exchange rate nearly at parity, they'll be visiting FKKs, and massage places, and brothels, and hanging out with every kind of working girl in a major way. And business owners, desperate for a share of those American dollars, will be opening up Coca Cola and burger joints like crazy!
Feel free to share your neighborhood Post Code and I'll make sure to pass along an expedited request for American-style establishments in your area.
And, and, and, you know what's abso-fucking-lutely hilarious? None of this would have happened except for Russia's imbecilic invasion of Ukraine. Next time you speak to Little Vlad, be sure to give him my thanks for guaranteeing decades of NATO and American dominance! And, when your poor, apoplectic self is searching for someone to blame, just look toward those red brick towers in the East.
Barbarians at the gate! ROTFLMAO!
I agree with you. America has no culture because it is beyond that. It is an idea. Let's look at how culture is defined.
I suggest a better way to characterize America (I. E. The US), is as an idea or ethos. Let's look at that definition.."America is the only nation in history which miraculously has gone directly from barbarism to decadence without the usual interval of civilization."
- G. Clemenceau (I. E. Some Frenchman).
The USA, "it is beyond that".
PedroMorales
05-21-22, 11:00
You're a fucking moron. I was on a suburban train some weeks ago, three loud mouthed Americans and me in my turf, coming from a place where there had been quite a few Americans idling about. When thinking about World War 4, think about those scenarios. In the mean time, get back to shooting up schools, synagogues, mosques and churches. It is what you hamburgers do best.
Typical American rant !Golfinho must not be American. He has read a book.
I hope your Nazi pals from Mariupol enjoy Siberia. Plenty of room for more.
PedroMorales
05-21-22, 13:06
Any ideas on this? Is it just another American ploy to rip off the world? Any connections with America's captured bio labs in Ukraine? Is it one of the side effects of the Covid jabs? The gay guys coming down with it would be vulnerable as they inject themselves with all kinds of crap. It seems Bill Gates won't just FKK off. A real James Bond villain.
.........USA has no culture beyond song and dance trashYou mean like the Russian symphony and ballet that they copied from Western Europe.
I like to think American movies are a big deal. When I travel, locals like to talk about American movies.
"America is the only nation in history which miraculously has gone directly from barbarism to decadence without the usual interval of civilization."
- G. Clemenceau (I. E. Some Frenchman).
The USA, "it is beyond that"."The greatness of America lies not in being more enlightened than any other nation, but rather in her ability to repair her faults."
- A. Tocqueville (some Frenchman).
Putin is a fucking moron, but I can't resist being his suck-buddy!As Russia's downward spiral accelerates, Siberia is likely to end up as the luxury vacation destination for former oligarchs. And, as they slurp their thin gruel of potatoes and beets, they'll be dreaming about American hamburgers and wishing they could have one.
Anti-American rhetoric is as temporary as the morning fog. Once it's dissipated by the sun, the real world is clearly seen. And there is no real-world scenario in which Russia wins. Only various scenarios of defeat which range from embarrassment and temporary disruption to utter collapse and disintegration. And, no matter how the details of defeat play out, Putin will almost certainly be blamed and excoriated by the Russians themselves. Nothing worse than a "strong man" dictator who turns out to be a weak loser.
Of all the very many Americans I have met and worked with, I have respect for less than 1% of them and I am far from unique in that.The worldwide audience of people who give a shit about the above statement is numbered at one. Of course, when you look at your bilious image in a mirror, then maybe you can fool yourself into thinking that two people give a shit. But hey, that's a 100% increase, right?
In the meantime, God Bles Russia.This last statement says it all, doesn't it? It fully reveals you as a total, and completely pathetic, fascist-loving, Z-idolizing, LilliPutin-sycophant. Even a worm has more dignity.
Azovstal is over.
Moscow, May 20. / TASS /. https://tass.ru/armiya-i-opk/14689499.
"Russian Defense Minister General of the Army Sergei Shoigu reported to Russian President Vladimir Putin on the completion of the operation and the complete liberation of the Azovstal plant and Mariupol from Ukrainian militants.
This was announced on Friday by the official representative of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, Major General Igor Konashenkov. "On the completion of the operation and the complete liberation of the plant and the city of Mariupol from Ukrainian militants, Russian Defense Minister General of the Army Sergei Shoigu reported to Russian President Vladimir Putin," Konashenkov said. According to him, the territory of the plant, where a group of Ukrainian militants of the Nazi formation "Azov" has been blocked since April 21, has been completely liberated.
More than 500 militants from the factory as part of the last group surrendered on Friday. "Today, May 20, the last group of 531 militants surrendered," Konashenkov said.
"The so-called "commander" of the Nazis" Azov "because of the hatred of the Mariupol residents and the desire of the townspeople to punish him for numerous atrocities, was taken out of the territory of the plant in a special armored car," the Russian Defense Ministry said.
According to Konashenkov, the underground facilities of the enterprise, in which the militants hid, came under the full control of the RF Armed Forces.
"In total, since May 16 of this year, during the operation, 2,439 Azov Nazis and servicemen of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, blocked on the territory of the plant, laid down their arms and surrendered," said a representative of the Russian Defense Ministry."
Now, the Ukronazis can get back to winning the war are finishing off the rebellion.By pointing out Mariupol's proximity to Russia, and the fact that it's taken nearly 3 months to overcome Ukrainian resistance, the clear conclusion is that any portrayal of it as a notable Russian "victory" is ludicrous.
And, at the time of my earlier post, there were conflicting reports as to whether all of the Ukrainian forces has surrendered or left. Please forgive me if I find your reference to an exclusively Russian source as less than persuasive. I prefer to wait for third-party confirmation, or the passage of a sufficient amount of time, as I never base any conclusion on official reports by either side.
But, if Russian sources are good enough for you, why not just declare the successful completion of the glorious "special operation" and we can all go back to our regular lives? I'm sure, if you look hard enough, you can find a Tass article to that effect.
Nothing to see here, folks. Move along.
https://blogs.berkeley.edu/2022/05/19/open-letter-to-noam-chomsky-and-other-like-minded-intellectuals-on-the-russia-ukraine-war/
See the Open Letter for full details, but here are the main points, or patterns, addressed:
Pattern #1: Denying Ukraine's sovereign integrity.
Pattern #2: Treating Ukraine as an American pawn on a geo-political chessboard.
Pattern #3. Suggesting that Russia was threatened by NATO.
Pattern #4. Stating that the USA Isn't any better than Russia.
Pattern #5. Whitewashing Putin's goals for invading Ukraine.
Pattern #6. Assuming that Putin is interested in a diplomatic solution.
Pattern #7. Advocating that yielding to Russian demands is the way to avert the nuclear war.
A thoughtful, respectful, and civil discussion and rebuttal. Something that's sadly lacking in many circles.
P.S. The pro-Russia characterization of Chomsky, et al, is mine alone, not the article's authors.
Any ideas on this? Is it just another American ploy to rip off the world? Any connections with America's captured bio labs in Ukraine? Is it one of the side effects of the Covid jabs? The gay guys coming down with it would be vulnerable as they inject themselves with all kinds of crap. It seems Bill Gates won't just FKK off. A real James Bond villain.Is that what landed you in a Finnish hospital? Or was it your need for a series of rabies shots?
Just a message of appreciation. I have enjoyed reading your blogging here, and many of the links you have been sharing have been extremely insightful. So much so, that I'm actually ok with Comrade Morales deranged ravings, since it prompts another superb rebuttal from yourself with good sources and reading materials.Many thanks for the kind words. As an FYI, my starting point has been the Ukrainian Conflict subreddit.
https://www.reddit.com/r/UkrainianConflict/new/
With over 350 K members, it's a dumping ground of pro- and anti-Ukraine posts, and more than a few trolls. But, when you check it regularly, some contributors stand out and the authors and articles they reference prove worthy of following. Then, especially on the Twitter platform, you can further explore the subsidiary level of authors and articles cited. It's a bit like word of mouth, but the key is to separate the wheat from the chaff at the very beginning such that you're not wasting your time reading BS or propaganda. Here are a few I think are worth a look:
https://mobile.twitter.com/kamilkazani
https://mobile.twitter.com/WarintheFuture
https://mobile.twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien
There are others, of course, but I visit these on a regular basis and, if they cite an author or article they think worthwhile, I'll usually make the time to check it out.
P.S. Poor Pedro M! Just like the Coyote, always trying to catch the Roadrunner but always falling short. And, since it's a purely American reference, he probably won't recognize it and will have to look it up. That makes it even funnier, don't you think?
"The greatness of America lies not in being more enlightened than any other nation, but rather in her ability to repair her faults."
- A. Tocqueville (some Frenchman).De Tocqueville, 1830's. What faults? LOL. Oh, wait, slavery got repaired.
You mean like the Russian symphony and ballet that they copied from Western Europe.When Mikhail Glinka, who was called the founder of Russian music, left Russia for Germany, he spat on the ground and yelled: "May I never see this vile country again."
For the music itself though, I don't think Tchaikovsky's or Rachmaninov's works were actually 'copied' from the West. Unlike the cars, planes and, oh yeah, the nukes.
https://blogs.berkeley.edu/2022/05/19/open-letter-to-noam-chomsky-and-other-like-minded-intellectuals-on-the-russia-ukraine-war/This is a great read, and well articulates the issues at hand and what is at stake. Russia is out to erase Ukraine, through murder, subjugation and re-education. They have no interest in negotiations, and any participation in that direction is insincere as they were blowing up maternity wards and bread lines while talks were taking place. Any agreements wouldn't be honored. Ukraine is doing what they have to do if they wish to survive as a people.
And there were never any promises made not to enlarge NATO into Eastern Europe. Russia only questioned expansion as it would relate to troop deployments in the former GDR, as Gorbachev later confirmed in no uncertain terms. Plus these discussions were within the context of the old USSR where the Warsaw Pact was still in force. Eastern Euro countries tasted freedom and requested integration. Knowing Russia too well they asked for protection. It's impossible to have confidence in the analysis of anyone that ignores the agencies of these countries.
https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2014/11/06/did-nato-promise-not-to-enlarge-gorbachev-says-no/
De Tocqueville, 1830's. What faults? LOL. Oh, wait, slavery got repaired.https://www.forbes.com/sites/tomlindsay/2019/08/30/after-all-didnt-america-invent-slavery/?sh=12c3e3d67ef6
https://www.freetheslaves.net/slavery-today-2/slavery-in-history/
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Slavery_in_Africa
Anyone not looking at history through anti-American goggles should have the intellectual honesty to acknowledge the following:
- Slavery dates back thousands of years and was a near-universal practice.
- Slavery was a central feature of both the Greek and Roman empires. And those periods gave birth to many of the legal and cultural underpinnings of Western civilization.
- Slavery was facilitated and introduced to the New World by the Portuguese and Spanish.
-By some estimates, 90% of African slaves were sold into bondage by other Africans. And that occurrence was an essential prerequisite of the Atlantic slave trade.
https://alphahistory.com/russianrevolution/reform-and-reaction-in-russia/
Russia, which is a country relevant to the discussions in this forum, didn't emancipate its serfs until 1861 (the same year the US Civil War began). And here's what that "freedom" looked like:
"Alexander II finally acted in 1861, signing a decree that ruled a line through serfdom. A process of land redistribution was commenced but the detail was left in the hands of corrupt bureaucrats and, in some cases, the land-owners themselves.
As a consequence, the reallocation of Russian land was hardly fair. Russia's serfs became free peasants but they were given a stark choice: either leave their land or commit to a 49-year state mortgage. They had, in effect, traded one form of bondage for anothe."
Moving into the 20th century, Nazi Germany made extensive use of forced labor from 1939 to 1945. "Arbeit macht frei," right? How quickly people forget.
Saudi Arabia and Yemen didn't ban slavery until 1962 and the Islamic Conference didn't renounce the practice until 1990. Oh yes, and there are many who would argue that China is currently the worst offender when it comes to forced labor in the modern world.
So yeah, it's pretty funny how, to so many, slavery is primarily a US-centric issue. Give me an effin' break!
PedroMorales
05-22-22, 13:49
Is that what landed you in a Finnish hospital? Or was it your need for a series of rabies shots?Belgium is now tightening the screws over monkeypox. Fuck off to Reddit and see what 4 chan have to say about it and then return. As regards sources, it is an information to noise thing (look it up, but not on Reddit). Your fan club here are moronic Americans, many of whom probably did disgusting things in Iraq and Afghanistan.
On a positive note, Russia is winning hands down.
On the American simpletons calling me Comrade to appear witty, the Communists are Russia's main opposition party; they are not in government but you go ahead to boil things down to your level.
As regards rebuttals, You haven't rebutted, much as you may be fond of butts. That is because I am not engaging with you because you are nothing to engage with.
You'll be happy to hear I am getting better, another few days to be safe. Then I'll be fighting fit again, as much as age allows me. I've caught up on my reading (no Reddit or 4 chan for me) and I hoped to be back in the saddle, but not with Ukrainians, soon. But then the Yanks spread monkeypox, on which I have my theories.
Belgium is now tightening the screws over monkeypox. Fuck off to Reddit and see what 4 chan have to say about it and then return. As regards sources, it is an information to noise thing (look it up, but not on Reddit). Your fan club here are moronic Americans, many of whom probably did disgusting things in Iraq and Afghanistan.
On a positive note, Russia is winning hands down.
On the American simpletons calling me Comrade to appear witty, the Communists are Russia's main opposition party; they are not in government but you go ahead to boil things down to your level.
As regards rebuttals, You haven't rebutted, much as you may be fond of butts. That is because I am not engaging with you because you are nothing to engage with.
You'll be happy to hear I am getting better, another few days to be safe. Then I'll be fighting fit again, as much as age allows me. I've caught up on my reading (no Reddit or 4 chan for me) and I hoped to be back in the saddle, but not with Ukrainians, soon. But then the Yanks spread monkeypox, on which I have my theories.Maybe you should ask the Finnish doctors for another series of shots, or a refund, since you're clearly hallucinating.
There are NO credible military analysts anywhere on the planet (including neutral countries AND those favorable to Russia) who are even remotely talking about Russia winning. The MOST favorable assessment with respect to Russia is that of a stalemate scenario.
Even inside Russia there is pessimism, as I demonstrated with the YouTube link in my recent post, from anyone who has even a shred of a connection with reality. The only ones who speak differently are the propaganda-mongers, who probably don't believe it themselves, and those who are in the throes of rabies-induced hallucinations.
And Reddit, contrary to your delusional babbling, is not a source. Neither is Twitter. But both are platforms where people DO post their sources and those sources can then be vetted to see whether or not they're backed up by credibility and expertise. Every one of my sources has been so vetted and there isn't a single link in ANY of my posts that relies on some random Reddit or Twitter post. I consistently point to the original source, and invite everyone to read and decide for themselves.
Therefore, your attack on the platforms is simply the most lame and transparent example possible of ad hominem. If you have any substantive criticism against either the credentials or content of the numerous experts I've cited, feel free to post for the benefit of the forum. But you can't, so you won't, because you're an intellectual pipsqueak who can't bring himself (or, more likely, isn't able) to rise above the level of personal insults.
And that's where you're stuck, in the gutter with your Russian nationalist buddy Little Vlad and his Neo-Nazi minions in the Wagner battalion, and beyond. As for an actual reBUTTal, you couldn't find one with two hands and a compass.
Meanwhile, every real-world indication is that Russia is in a death-spiral, while the US and NATO (soon to include Finland and Sweden!) are on an ever upward trajectory. Thanks, LilliPutin!
https://blogs.berkeley.edu/2022/05/19/open-letter-to-noam-chomsky-and-other-like-minded-intellectuals-on-the-russia-ukraine-war/
See the Open Letter for full details, but here are the main points, or patterns, addressed:
Pattern #1: Denying Ukraine's sovereign integrity.
Pattern #2: Treating Ukraine as an American pawn on a geo-political chessboard.
Pattern #3. Suggesting that Russia was threatened by NATO.
Pattern #4. Stating that the USA Isn't any better than Russia.
Pattern #5. Whitewashing Putin's goals for invading Ukraine.
Pattern #6. Assuming that Putin is interested in a diplomatic solution.
Pattern #7. Advocating that yielding to Russian demands is the way to avert the nuclear war.
A thoughtful, respectful, and civil discussion and rebuttal. Something that's sadly lacking in many circles.
P.S. The pro-Russia characterization of Chomsky, et al, is mine alone, not the article's authors.Chomsky's perspectives have had their moments. As we age, we kind of get stuck in familiar patterns of thought. At 93, I think that is likely with Chomsky. He sees everything through the lens of imperialism. In his mind, the Ukraine is a proxy war between Russia and the United States. I believe Chomsky accepted North Vietnamese agency during the Vietnam War even though they were being supplied militarily by the Soviet Union. On a similar basis, the Ukrainians should have agency over their own sovereignty.
I use the analogy of choosing what to put in the box when making a clearly very biased case. You simply leave things out that don't fit the argument. Jmsuttr, the American slavery argument is exactly like that box. You had to point out everything left out of the box and ignored about global slavery.
On a positive note, Russia is winning hands down.Pants down is more like it.
Their morale is down, their economy is down, their relationship with the whole world is down in the dumps.
Russia has taken two large Ukrainian cities Mariupol and Kherson. The later was taken easily because it had been completely unprotected, while their "great" victory in Mariupol took a 3-month siege, tens of thousands dead civilians and Russian solders, complete destruction of a city with half-million population and a mind-boggling number of crimes against humanity.
3 months to take one city! The Pyrrhic victory wasn't as devastated to the victor as Mariupol.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pyrrhus_of_Epirus
In the meantime, Ukrainians have cleaned up the Kharkov Oblast from the enemy and reached the Russian border. And the land-lease hasn't even started yet.
Hands down, huh. Keep it up, comrade.
On the American simpletons calling me Comrade to appear witty, the Communists are Russia's main opposition partyNice try.
"Comrade" is still the only official way to address one's superior or colleague in the Russia's Armed Forces, Police, Russian Guard, FSB, GRU and every other military or paramililtary organization in the RF.
As a dedicated info-soldier for Mother Russia you are but a comrade, so don't sell yourself short, LOL.
Capiche, Tovarisch Morales?
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/19/opinion/putin-russia-sanctions-ukraine.html
Short version:
1. Money flowing into Russia doesn't help if it can't be used to buy needed goods.
2. The flow of goods into Russia has dropped drastically, not only from countries formally participating in sanctions, but also from countries that aren't formally participating, including China.
3. Viewed in this context, Russia's trade surplus is a sign of weakness, as it signifies their inability to spend money outside their borders.
4. Since the current conflict has largely become a war of attrition, with significant equipment losses on both sides, time is working against Putin because of the inability to import materials, components, and parts needed to repair or replace war equipment. Ukraine, however, is being replenished by NATO and the West on an ongoing basis.
BTW, for those forum members who have a brain, and understand the difference between platforms and sources, here's the subreddit posting that points to the original article:
https://www.reddit.com/r/UkrainianConflict/comments/uumoap/opinion_how_the_west_is_strangling_putins_economy/
And here's the same type of post on Twitter:
https://mobile.twitter.com/BaldwinRE/status/1527972892746588160
PedroMorales
05-23-22, 08:21
Seems you guys are all here. Go watch it. https://www.facebook.com/watch?v=1060921954507161.
Besides the American ghetto dwellers, we have some Reddit schmuck setting himself as an authority. Social media is not where to dive for the main parameters.
The mega surrenders continue.
Ukraine will probably ber divided into three part: Russian affiliated, Polish (and Romanian and Hungarian) controlled, and Zelensky's corrupt rump. Good luck bonking Nazi widows there.
Seems you guys are all here. Go watch it. https://www.facebook.com/watch?v=1060921954507161.
Besides the American ghetto dwellers, we have some Reddit schmuck setting himself as an authority. Social media is not where to dive for the main parameters.
The mega surrenders continue.
Ukraine will probably ber divided into three part: Russian affiliated, Polish (and Romanian and Hungarian) controlled, and Zelensky's corrupt rump. Good luck bonking Nazi widows there.https://t.me/ukrainenowenglish/6520
Quite a thought-provoking map, eh?
Funny how Russia's "partner," China, seems to be sitting on the sidelines, waiting and licking its chops for the possible (likely?) breakup of Russia.
But only delusional fools think they can predict the future. I'm satisfied with accurately observing present realities and proposing reasonable extrapolations from that body of evidence.
And there is no reality-based scenario or extrapolation in which Russia wins. With each passing day they continue to eat their "seed corn," diminishing whatever reserves they may have, while sanctions prevent any meaningful replenishment. Meanwhile, Ukraine is being continually replenished and refreshed by the US, NATO, and a coalition of freedom-loving nations.
P.S. I don't do Facebook. You can suck dick if you want, but that's not how I roll.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/5/23/russian-diplomat-to-the-un-in-geneva-resigns-over-war-in-ukraine
"For twenty years of my diplomatic career I have seen different turns of our foreign policy, but never have I been so ashamed of my country as on February 24 of this year," Boris Bondarev (Russian diplomat, now ex-diplomat) said.
"The aggressive war unleashed by Putin against Ukraine, and in fact against the entire Western world, is not only a crime against the Ukrainian people, but also, perhaps, the most serious crime against the people of Russia," (see a viewable image of the full statement in the link below).
https://unwatch.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/208ed848-b343-4c13-9157-760178de76bc.jpg
Those who've read my earlier posts know I've been keeping an eye out for instances of Russian elites turning their backs on Putin and the Kremlin. This incident qualifies, IMO, because no one in Russia gets to be a career diplomat, much less assigned to the United Nations, without being a member of the "in" group and having gained the approval of other elites.
If the letter and tone is taken at face value, then it would seem Bondarev has been disaffected with the ill-advised invasion from the very beginning. Which makes me wonder if he waited until he was able to settle his affairs in Russia (family, financial, etc.) before handing in his resignation. It's not something he could have done openly, so if it took a few months that would be understandable. He's certainly burned his bridges, so there's no going back. If he doesn't already have a second passport, he'll probably be applying for political asylum soon.
The watch continues! Who will be next?
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/19/opinion/putin-russia-sanctions-ukraine.html
Short version:
1. Money flowing into Russia doesn't help if it can't be used to buy needed goods.
2. The flow of goods into Russia has dropped drastically, not only from countries formally participating in sanctions, but also from countries that aren't formally participating, including China.
3. Viewed in this context, Russia's trade surplus is a sign of weakness, as it signifies their inability to spend money outside their borders.
4. Since the current conflict has largely become a war of attrition, with significant equipment losses on both sides, time is working against Putin because of the inability to import materials, components, and parts needed to repair or replace war equipment. Ukraine, however, is being replenished by NATO and the West on an ongoing basis.
BTW, for those forum members who have a brain, and understand the difference between platforms and sources, here's the subreddit posting that points to the original article:Krugman? That's your idea of third party confirmation? LOL. A prime example of the Nobel Dynomite awards degenerated to political theatre.
If only our "Evo" Morales shared some of the same:
https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-putin-switzerland-government-and-politics-2019b1448217f57e68d2b18b6727bf99
Krugman? That's your idea of third party confirmation? LOL. A prime example of the Nobel Dynomite awards degenerated to political theatre.That's purely a figment of your own imagination.
What I did say was:
1. Nobel laureate.
2. Economist.
3. Analysis of Russian sanctions.
And, as a factual matter, all of the above are absolutely true.
As far as the analysis itself, I posted it primarily for information purposes and, while I included a brief summary, I didn't comment on, or endorse, any of the elements of the analysis. Everyone can read and make up their own mind.
So, if you want challenge or rebut anything in the article, knock yourself out. But when you try to insinuate that there's something in a post that isn't there, you're swimming neck-deep in Pedro M's shit-filled swimming pool. Is that really where you want to be?
One of the key elements of an intellectually honest debate is accurately portraying the other person's positions and statements, even if you disagree. Engaging in distortion or, even worse, ad hominem, is a clear indication that you're unwilling or unable to debate on the merits of the argument itself.
With a second passport and cash in hand, Gone back to Russia!
"One-third of Russian olim left Israel after 1 month with new passport, Cash.
https://www.jpost.com/diaspora/article-705369
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/5/23/russian-diplomat-to-the-un-in-geneva-resigns-over-war-in-ukraine
"For twenty years of my diplomatic career I have seen different turns of our foreign policy, but never have I been so ashamed of my country as on February 24 of this year," Boris Bondarev (Russian diplomat, now ex-diplomat) said.
"The aggressive war unleashed by Putin against Ukraine, and in fact against the entire Western world, is not only a crime against the Ukrainian people, but also, perhaps, the most serious crime against the people of Russia," (see a viewable image of the full statement in the link below).
https://unwatch.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/208ed848-b343-4c13-9157-760178de76bc.jpg..The most ex senior advisor lands in Israel.
"Putin's Senior Adviser Reportedly in Israel After Leaving Russia Over Ukraine Invasion.
Russian-Jewish Anatoly Chubais was the Kremlin's special representative for ties with international organizations, and had been an architect of economic reforms and privatization under Boris Yeltsin in the 1990's."
https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/putin-senior-advisor-reportedly-in-israel-after-leaving-russia-over-ukraine-invasion-1.10783221
Seems you guys are all here. Go watch it. https://www.facebook.com/watch?v=1060921954507161.
Besides the American ghetto dwellers, we have some Reddit schmuck setting himself as an authority. Social media is not where to dive for the main parameters.
The mega surrenders continue.
Ukraine will probably ber divided into three part: Russian affiliated, Polish (and Romanian and Hungarian) controlled, and Zelensky's corrupt rump. Good luck bonking Nazi widows there.Azovstal steel plant utterly destroyed. Now it looks like Detroit.
With a second passport and cash in hand, Gone back to Russia!
"One-third of Russian olim left Israel after 1 month with new passport, Cash.
https://www.jpost.com/diaspora/article-705369As I read the article, it's not talking about high-profile oligarchs but rather Russians from the other levels of Russian society. Those people have the benefit of generally being able to fly "under the radar," while anything done by an oligarch would draw attention.
IMO, any Russian opposed to the war, or worried about their country's future, has probably thought about or made plans for leaving, either temporarily or permanently. And it's not surprising to me that some would straddle the fence for as long as possible, keeping their options open but not making a final decision unless or until the exit door is about to slam shut. So my thoughts are that these returnees (to the extent they haven't burned all their bridges), with 2nd passports in hand, are part of that "straddle" group.
Their biggest problem will be if the exit door shuts suddenly and unexpectedly. Then they'll be mostly screwed. Also, if something happens to put them on the radar of authorities while still in Russia, they'll experience the same result (screwed). Notice that the article makes no mention of Ukrainian refugees similarly gaming the system.
As always, posted as info for those who choose to read and decide for themselves.
https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-economy-imploding-exports-under-pressure-ukraine-war-sanctions-2022-5
Of course, there are those who are predisposed to ignore the content itself and attack or ridicule the authors. I think it's become quite apparent which forum members prefer to tread the path of intellectual vacuousness and vapidity.
P.S. I would also point out that this analysis makes essentially the same point as the one I posted earlier, which is that the drastic drop in goods flowing into Russia is its Achilles' Heel.
Funny what can happen when people feel that the anonymity of a crowd enables them to speak freely. I haven't seen an estimate of the crowd size, but it appears to be in the thousands and possibly the tens of thousands.
https://www.indiatoday.in/world/russia-ukraine-war/story/russians-chant-slogan-anti-ukraine-war-concert-video-1953371-2022-05-24
And it's worth noting that St. Petersburg is one of the premier centers of ethnic Russia, and somewhere you'd expect pro-Putin sentiment to be at its highest. It'll be interesting to see what kinds of measures the Kremlin puts in place to ensure this doesn't happen again.
I prefer to wait for third-party confirmation, or the passage of a sufficient amount of time, as I never base any conclusion on official reports by either side.Paging comrade Krugman for third-party confirmation.
One of the key elements of an intellectually honest debate is accurately portraying the other person's positions and statements, even if you disagree. Engaging in distortion or, even worse, ad hominem, is a clear indication that you're unwilling or unable to debate on the merits of the argument itself.Without a doubt, but it begs the question, where did you get the idea that a monger forum is a good place to find integrity? LOL Wink.
Azovstal steel plant utterly destroyed.Congratulations.
PedroMorales
05-24-22, 22:30
Krugman? That's your idea of third party confirmation? LOL. A prime example of the Nobel Dynomite awards degenerated to political theatre.For the Nobel Peace Prize (for not invading Austria). Obama, Mr Drone Man, was given it for being a whiter shade of non-pale. Kissinger was given it for murdering Vietnamese children. Our Hasbara troll here should get it for his non stop BS. After all Winston Churchill, the Anglo American drunk, got the Nobel Prize for Literature because the Peace one was already taken.
You got to love Americans, the most stupid fatties on the planet. That said, the question: who gets it right more often: the Simpsons or South Park? I go with South Park though I am not really a cartoon guy.
Funny all these attacks on peace maker Vlad Putin. Anyone know why he walks with a stiff right arm? (to stay near his gun, standard KGB operating procedure). Putin and his pals saved Russia, good people. Now they are saving Ukraine. And sending their remaining shit to Israel.
The game goes on but not, for the moment for me as I am still nursing injuries (age). I might watch a little of Scarface? You know what is the best part of the best Hollywood directors? They acknowledge their debt to Mother Russia (and France, of course).
Paging comrade Krugman for third-party confirmation.Here's the quote, in context:
"By pointing out Mariupol's proximity to Russia, and the fact that it's taken nearly 3 months to overcome Ukrainian resistance, the clear conclusion is that any portrayal of it as a notable Russian "victory" is ludicrous.
And, at the time of my earlier post, there were conflicting reports as to whether all of the Ukrainian forces has surrendered or left. Please forgive me if I find your reference to an exclusively Russian source as less than persuasive. I prefer to wait for third-party confirmation, or the passage of a sufficient amount of time, as I never base any conclusion on official reports by either side".
So, as is incontestably apparent, to all but the delusional and (or) dishonest, the "third-party confirmation" phrase clearly refers to matters of fact. In this particular case it concerned the actual status of Ukrainian troops in Mariupol because, unlike your reliance on Russian propaganda, I refuse to rely on official sources from either side.
Once again you've dropped your pants and revealed how pathetic and puny your (intellectual) equipment is. Maybe you should invest in a prosthetic?
Or perhaps the problem is that you simply have difficulty differentiating fact from opinion? Here's a primer: Facts refer to things like reality-based events and circumstances that can be objectively verified. And, since objectivity is key, parties who have their own agendas are inherently problematic and confirmation by a reliable third party is both desirable and appropriate. None of that applies to matters of opinion. In that arena, there is no such thing as third-party "confirmation" because that only means that you've found another person who happens to agrees with a certain opinion.
Big fucking deal and so fucking what! You could have a million people agreeing with one side of a debatable issue (like the effects of Russian sanctions) and that still doesn't make it right. Debates are won by evidence and logic. But I guess those two concepts are like a foreign language to you, as is honesty. It must really suck for those in your circle of family and (if you have any) friends to have to endure the odious presence someone with your deceptive and manipulative tendencies. You should conduct an anonymous poll of your associates. I'm betting the results would be mind-blowingly, off-the-charts, negative. Oh, and I'd be happy to volunteer for third-party confirmation!
Congratulations.It took three months, but after tucking tail and running out of Kyiv and Kharkiv, getting nowhere in the Donbas, and 20 K+ dead soldiers, more than was lost in nine years in Afghanistan, the "super power" finally has something to cheer about, Mariupol, a port city a few miles from their border. And they blew up 20 K plus civilians in the process. It's too bad this fell short of the May 9 celebration, quite a muted affair indeed. Wink.
Congratulations.Destroyed. Along with the nazi criminals, err evacuated freedom fighters who preferred to face trial in the Donetsk Republic which has the death penalty.
Without a doubt, but it begs the question, where did you get the idea that a monger forum is a good place to find integrity? LOL Wink.When people have the cloak of anonymity, their true nature comes out. They have no masks, no facades, and no social pressures to constrain them.
When there's a debate about a contentious topic, you can see exactly who is honest, reasonable, logical, etc. And you can clearly see who is not.
And I think that's proven true right here, as the vast majority of comments in this forum have been just fine. There have really only been a couple of pathetic losers who regularly resort to ad hominem and dishonesty, and everyone knows exactly who they are.
For the Nobel Peace Prize (for not invading Austria). Obama, Mr Drone Man, was given it for being a whiter shade of non-pale. Kissinger was given it for murdering Vietnamese children. Our Hasbara troll here should get it for his non stop BS. After all Winston Churchill, the Anglo American drunk, got the Nobel Prize for Literature because the Peace one was already taken.
You got to love Americans, the most stupid fatties on the planet. That said, the question: who gets it right more often: the Simpsons or South Park? I go with South Park though I am not really a cartoon guy.
Funny all these attacks on peace maker Vlad Putin. Anyone know why he walks with a stiff right arm? (to stay near his gun, standard KGB operating procedure). Putin and his pals saved Russia, good people. Now they are saving Ukraine. And sending their remaining shit to Israel.
The game goes on but not, for the moment for me as I am still nursing injuries (age). I might watch a little of Scarface? You know what is the best part of the best Hollywood directors? They acknowledge their debt to Mother Russia (and France, of course).Your insatiable man-crush on LilliPutin is something to behold! You just can't resist dropping little nuggets (or turds?) about Little Vlad's habits. When are you scheduled to have his baby?
About the Nobel Prize, about 962 people have received it over the history of the awards. And, while I'm sure there are examples that can be criticized or disagreed with, awards in the scientific categories are generally recognized as indicative of expertise in that discipline.
And, when someone is honored with a prize in physics, chemistry, physiology-medicine, or economic sciences, the specific discovery or body of work is detailed. There's certainly room for questioning the Peace Prize, as that has proven to be susceptible to political and popularity foibles. But there's no specific expertise associated with that award.
For the scientific discipline categories, however, if someone wants to assert that a prize is undeserved, then it's incumbent on them to demonstrate some error or deficiency with respect to the specific discovery, or body of work, for which the award was given.
BTW, I'd nominate Putin for the Nobel Peace Prize if he'd be so accommodating as to unholster his KGB gun and blow his own fucking brains out. That would be the clearest and best path to peace. And that goes double if he'd take out Shoigu at the same time. I'd add Gerasimov, but no one's seen him lately. So I'm guessing Putin already took care of him.
Fascinating letter which recognizes (and criticizes) the failure of the "special operation" and calls for full mobilization and total war.
https://m-kalashnikov.livejournal.com/4243623.html
Here's the opening section:
"We, veterans of the Armed Forces and special services of Russia, united in the All-Russian Officers' Assembly, together with the majority of our people, enthusiastically supported the decision of the President of the Russian Federation and Supreme Commander-in-Chief V. V. Putin on the conduct of a special military operation for the armed protection of the inhabitants of the DPR and LPR, the demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine. At the same time, carefully analyzing the course of almost three months of hostilities, we came to the conclusion that the special military operation that began on February 24, unfortunately, ended in failure: after a month of hostilities, Russian troops retreated from the captured bridgeheads near Kyiv, left the liberated territories in Sumy and Chernihiv regions in the north and Mykolaiv region in the south of the so-called Ukraine. All this happened under the pretext of displaying the "good will" of the President of the Russian Federation. But the question naturally arose in our minds: whose evil will was carried out by citizen V. Putin, giving the troops a humiliating order to retreat".
And there's much more. This letter is an eye-opening look at the delusion, paranoia, and warped world-view that underpin Russian support for this war, and should be required reading for anyone who believes there's a rational basis for negotiations, or common ground of any kind. In fact, these war-hawk extremists are those who, if Putin ends up getting deposed or sidelined, will most likely be responsible. And then one of their leaders will be calling the shots, both figuratively and literally.
Note: The letter is in Russian so you'll need to use your preferred translation method. Opening the link with the Chrome browser is one easy way, as the translation prompt should open automatically.
When people have the cloak of anonymity, their true nature comes out. They have no masks, no facades, and no social pressures to constrain them.
When there's a debate about a contentious topic, you can see exactly who is honest, reasonable, logical, etc. And you can clearly see who is not.
And I think that's proven true right here, as the vast majority of comments in this forum have been just fine. There have really only been a couple of pathetic losers who regularly resort to ad hominem and dishonesty, and everyone knows exactly who they are.You are a bit sequestered here though the word is beginning to get out. Drop in on the American Politics thread in the Opinions section or Stupid Shit in Medellin under Colombia. It's a swarm of logical fallacies, the whole spectrum from straw men to proof by repetition, non-sequiturs to ad hominems and tu quoque, you name it. You'll also get a steady diet of the rightwingnut fake news of the day from youtubes, blogs, and Russian state media. A few of the guys you go at here are found there plus many more.
Your insatiable man-crush on LilliPutin is something to behold! You just can't resist dropping little nuggets (or turds?) about Little Vlad's habits. When are you scheduled to have his baby?
About the Nobel Prize, about 962 people have received it over the history of the awards. And, while I'm sure there are examples that can be criticized or disagreed with, awards in the scientific categories are generally recognized as indicative of expertise in that discipline.
And, when someone is honored with a prize in physics, chemistry, physiology-medicine, or economic sciences, the specific discovery or body of work is detailed. There's certainly room for questioning the Peace Prize, as that has proven to be susceptible to political and popularity foibles. But there's no specific expertise associated with that award.
For the scientific discipline categories, however, if someone wants to assert that a prize is undeserved, then it's incumbent on them to demonstrate some error or deficiency with respect to the specific discovery, or body of work, for which the award was given.
BTW, I'd nominate Putin for the Nobel Peace Prize if he'd be so accommodating as to unholster his KGB gun and blow his own fucking brains out. That would be the clearest and best path to peace. And that goes double if he'd take out Shoigu at the same time. I'd add Gerasimov, but no one's seen him lately. So I'm guessing Putin already took care of him.You know I don't really get what any of that has to do with anything. If you've read one of Pedro's posts you've read them all. Yes he believes all of Russia's state propaganda. Yes he hates America, Jews, and blacks. He's elderly as he tells us with health problems and is angry as hell. As the idiom so tells us, there's nothing to see here. At least nothing new or the least bit sophisticated or creative. Even all the insults are juvenile and repetitive. Yawns. You are his new mark I guess as everyone pretty much quit paying attention to him in American politics, and he quit showing up in the Colombia forum. He of course has never been there.
Without a doubt, but it begs the question, where did you get the idea that a monger forum is a good place to find integrity? LOL Wink.Certainly an eye-opening thread here, I would say. We have at least one member / comrade / cheerleader who seems to have benefited (or should I say suffered) from Soviet education and propaganda.
It's kind of bizarre hearing the neo-Marxist perspective recited to attack America and the West. Putin and friends are so far removed from basic Marxist tenets on the distribution of wealth and capital. Basically, Russia over the last thirty years has stripped away the veneer of societal good from the Soviet days and revealed the brutal murderers and thugs.
Funny what can happen when people feel that the anonymity of a crowd enables them to speak freely. I haven't seen an estimate of the crowd size, but it appears to be in the thousands and possibly the tens of thousands.
https://www.indiatoday.in/world/russia-ukraine-war/story/russians-chant-slogan-anti-ukraine-war-concert-video-1953371-2022-05-24
And it's worth noting that St. Petersburg is one of the premier centers of ethnic Russia, and somewhere you'd expect pro-Putin sentiment to be at its highest. It'll be interesting to see what kinds of measures the Kremlin puts in place to ensure this doesn't happen again.This certainly doesn't surprise anyone. Measuring Russian support for the war certainly depends on who you ask.
Given the cataclysmic events of the early 90's, one might expect older Russians to be more supportive of Russian intervention in the Ukraine. Younger Russians generally don't give a fuck.
Certainly an eye-opening thread here, I would say. We have at least one member / comrade / cheerleader who seems to have benefited (or should I say suffered) from Soviet education and propaganda.
It's kind of bizarre hearing the neo-Marxist perspective recited to attack America and the West. Putin and friends are so far removed from basic Marxist tenets on the distribution of wealth and capital. Basically, Russia over the last thirty years has stripped away the veneer of societal good from the Soviet days and revealed the brutal murderers and thugs.If you speak of Pedro then I think you way overestimate him. He's a garden variety online attention seeker. It started with deriding Americans for inventing and eating cheeseburgers while he talked of wanting to beat them up as he felt they were too loud in the Euro brothels. Since the war started it's Putin promotion, and the "education" consists of online blogs and new sources made for morons, or at best, the masses. Who knows where he went to school but likely didn't go far. If you were speaking of someone else then scratch all that.
You are a bit sequestered here though the word is beginning to get out. Drop in on the American Politics thread in the Opinions section or Stupid Shit in Medellin under Colombia. It's a swarm of logical fallacies, the whole spectrum from straw men to proof by repetition, non-sequiturs to ad hominems and tu quoque, you name it. You'll also get a steady diet of the rightwingnut fake news of the day from youtubes, blogs, and Russian state media. A few of the guys you go at here are found there plus many more.What seems to be going on over there, although I'm no expert, is a mutual masturbation society in which each participant "gets off" by scoring (usually in their own minds) meaningless points about issues that will never be settled and will always be subject to debate.
Left vs Right, Democrat vs Republican, and Progressive vs Conservative are division lines that have existed for a long time, and will continue to do so. I have zero interest in participating in that kind of environment.
In contrast, even though this is only a "Stupid Shit" thread on an anonymous fuckboard, there are genuine issues being discussed, many of them with important implications for people currently in Ukraine or Russia, planning to travel to either of those countries, or affected by ancillary issues.
I have no great illusions about who reads this forum. I'm well aware it caters to mongers. BUT, those mongers have regular lives, with regular families and friends, so if I'm able to find and post info they haven't seen elsewhere, I view that as a positive thing. And I similarly see it as a positive if I'm able to debunk misleading or propagandistic posts. What I care about is not leaving a vacuum that gets filled with BS by bottom-feeders like the Pedrito-Golfito twins.
And it also helps that I personally care about both countries, having had many friends and lovers (including one fiancee) from Russia and Ukraine. And I'm currently dealing with a close Ukrainian friend, from a pro-Russian area, who is struggling with divided loyalties.
In other words, if not for the real-world issues at stake, and the connections (real or potential) to actual people, I wouldn't be here. As for those other forums, and debate (or posting) for its own sake, I'm simply not interested.
You know I don't really get what any of that has to do with anything. If you've read one of Pedro's posts you've read them all. Yes he believes all of Russia's state propaganda. Yes he hates America, Jews, and blacks. He's elderly as he tells us with health problems and is angry as hell. As the idiom so tells us, there's nothing to see here. At least nothing new or the least bit sophisticated or creative. Even all the insults are juvenile and repetitive. Yawns. You are his new mark I guess as everyone pretty much quit paying attention to him in American politics, and he quit showing up in the Colombia forum. He of course has never been there.Please don't confuse my responses to him as any kind of attempt to convince or persuade, as I'm well aware that he exists in a delusional bubble of his own creation.
Most of the time my responses are to poke fun at him, or show how Putin is a ridicule-worthy "Emperor Who Has No Clothes," or simply to ensure that his bile-filled posts don't exist in a vacuum. And, when I talk about Pedrito, I include his clone (Golfito), as well.
And I'm fine with being the "new mark" for one, or both, as I regularly give much better than they can dish out. I must confess, it is an enjoyable experience when I wipe the debate-floor with them.
Hope that clarifies things.
It's a good read and gives some insight into dysfunctions within the Russian govt, and the prevailing mentality in Moscow, from the perspective of a career officer in the Foreign Ministry.
Here's the article on the original website. It's paywalled but you should see a link at the bottom that allows you to view one article for free. If you don't see that link, try clearing cache and cookies and give it another go:
https://puck.news/ukraine-must-win-a-kremlin-defector-tells-all/
If that doesn't work for you, here's an archived version:
https://archive.ph/Vh8hb
His overall conclusion: Ukraine must win!
This certainly doesn't surprise anyone. Measuring Russian support for the war certainly depends on who you ask.
Given the cataclysmic events of the early 90's, one might expect older Russians to be more supportive of Russian intervention in the Ukraine. Younger Russians generally don't give a fuck.He discusses how the Kremlin-dwellers are freaked out about the views and mindset of the younger generation.
In an environment that's under near-total govt control, you look for signals wherever you can find them. This is one of those, IMO, as are the spate of recent fires and "accidents" across Russia. Sabotage, especially something like fire-bombing a conscription office, is more of a younger person's cup of chai, although not always so.
It'll be interesting to see if there's any govt response to the concert, whether public or behind the scenes. Either way, I'll be watching for the next set of signaling events from the younger crowd.
PedroMorales
05-26-22, 05:31
Please don't confuse my responses to him as any kind of attempt to convince or persuade, as I'm well aware that he exists in a delusional bubble of his own creation.
Most of the time my responses are to poke fun at him, or show how Putin is a ridicule-worthy "Emperor Who Has No Clothes," or simply to ensure that his bile-filled posts don't exist in a vacuum. And, when I talk about Pedrito, I include his clone (Golfito), as well..Check out your posts in Medellin shit. Not much gets much shitier than that. You have nothing to contribute. You actually clog up threads and are a main reason the mod uses these threads as garbage dumps.
He does that to increase the information to noise ratio on the others. Golfito obviously limits his posts for the same reason.
You Americans do not belong in Europe or an where else, as your most recent school shooting shows. You are sick fucks.
Your (collective) posts here show that. God knows why Europe is allowing American destroy it but that is where we are.
PedroMorales
05-26-22, 18:54
I thought some of you might like the attached poem which summarises American culture (sic).
I see the USA has today stolen an Iranian oil tanker. Tick tock, says the clock.
Check out your posts in Medellin shit. Not much gets much shitier than that. You have nothing to contribute. You actually clog up threads and are a main reason the mod uses these threads as garbage dumps.
He does that to increase the information to noise ratio on the others. Golfito obviously limits his posts for the same reason.
You Americans do not belong in Europe or an where else, as your most recent school shooting shows. You are sick fucks.
Your (collective) posts here show that. God knows why Europe is allowing American destroy it but that is where we are.Not sure what you're talking about, as I have no posts in any Medellin forum. Maybe your rabies hallucinations have now extended to ISG?
Posting a plethora of threads that contribute nothing other than one's own opinion, backed up by zero links to articles, or other references, would certainly leave one open to criticism about clogging up threads. That's actually a pretty apt description of your posting style.
In stark contrast, I've gone out of my way to find and post items that provide information that's not always found in general media sources. The most recent examples include the extended interview of Bondarev and the letter to Putin from retired Russian officers. Whether or not you agree with what I've posted is irrelevant and immaterial. The plain truth of the matter is that I've gone out of my way to add to the level of facts and evidence in this forum.
You, OTOH, are a one-note nanny-goat bleating out incessant anti-Americanism. You contribute nothing but bile, and that seems to be your overarching modus operandi. And it's hilarious how, as you raise your blood pressure to aneurysm levels, Americans just laugh at you and continue to move onward and upward. America is used to the jealousy of pipsqueaks, and the pipsqueaks should know that by now.
Just think, with the growth of NATO and clamoring demand for US-led NATO troops to be stationed in new European locales, you might just be lucky enough to have a NATO base as your neighbor. Wouldn't that be something? ROTFL!
'The War Won't End Until Putin Loses'.
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/05/why-ukraine-must-defeat-putin-russia/629940/
'The War Won't End Until Putin Loses'.
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/05/why-ukraine-must-defeat-putin-russia/629940/The Atlantic Magazine. The mouthpiece of Liberal Zionism. No greater source for your echo chamber than Jeffrey Goldberg. Now, go bleat-bleat anti-seemite.
How to deal with Russia and Ukraine by Kissinger and Soros.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/dueling-approaches-to-world-order-war-ukraine-putin-russia-china-davos-kissinger-soros-foreign-policy-peace-11653509537
A reminder of the Churchilian way of dealing with such situations "When Winston Churchill, a man who demonstrated both Sorosian and Kissingerian characteristics through his long career, was asked about postwar planning in 1942, he replied with words Western leaders should remember today. "I hope these speculative studies will be entrusted mainly to those on whose hands time hangs heavy, and that we shall not overlook Mrs. Glasse's Cookery Book recipe for jugged hare—'First catch your hare.'"
PedroMorales
05-27-22, 10:48
Meaningless bla bla ROTFL!One of the other Yanks has just posted a link to the Atlantic, not worth reading as it is NATO BS for morons.
I quickly glanced at the Philippines thread / Guys doing their Dear Diary stuff, low information to noise ratio but the mod is necessarily happy with that. He (don't know his pronouns for sure but) also has to deal with the strange issue of photos on the Indian board but that is his call and is of no importance to me. His game, his football.
Let's get on to your bs, which resembles that on transsexuals etc on the Medellin Stupid Shit board. Most posts like yours are not worth reading as they contain no worthwhile information.
You assume if you spew shit on and on, it makes it worth reading. It doesn't. I am on no meds as I like to minimize all shit into my body. That is why I am not vaccinated (sic).
The key to trailer trash like you in in the American women / politics threads. They could be interesting and informative but trailer trash just swamp them.
As regards Ukraine, Russia is winning hands down in the East. The USA is happy to fight to the last Ukrainian and America's NATO puppets seem also happy, at least for now.
Russia will win the east and Nato will make another corrupt Kosovo of the West (Someone is making a fortune with all that US aid). Closer to America's mid terms and hard times this winter in Europe, we might get, if not our omelette, at least our cracked eggs.
Zhukov got to Berlin, Tsar Alexander to Paris. Let's see what happens when hard times hit. You keep on with hijacking ships, shooting up schools and eating hamburgers. Russians don't pull the belt in, They eat the belt.
One of the other Yanks has just posted a link to the Atlantic, not worth reading as it is NATO BS for morons.
I quickly glanced at the Philippines thread / Guys doing their Dear Diary stuff, low information to noise ratio but the mod is necessarily happy with that. He (don't know his pronouns for sure but) also has to deal with the strange issue of photos on the Indian board but that is his call and is of no importance to me. His game, his football.
Let's get on to your bs, which resembles that on transsexuals etc on the Medellin Stupid Shit board. Most posts like yours are not worth reading as they contain no worthwhile information.
You assume if you spew shit on and on, it makes it worth reading. It doesn't. I am on no meds as I like to minimize all shit into my body. That is why I am not vaccinated (sic).
The key to trailer trash like you in in the American women / politics threads. They could be interesting and informative but trailer trash just swamp them.
As regards Ukraine, Russia is winning hands down in the East. The USA is happy to fight to the last Ukrainian and America's NATO puppets seem also happy, at least for now.Not sure where you get your pseudo-facts about the progress of the war but, judging from your past posts, you either get them from kool-aid drinking Russia propagandists or just pull them out of your ass. Or maybe you consult with the transsexuals from Medellin? Goodness knows, you sure love to talk about them a lot (LOL)!
In stark contrast, I studiously avoid propaganda from either side, though it's fair to note that Ukrainian official statements have been more measured while those from the Kremlin resemble the ramblings of Baghdad Bob!
But here's an independent analysis of how things are going, and it's generally updated daily:
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-26
One good feature of this site is that you can compare daily summaries and maps to get a sense of either side's progress and setbacks. Here's the most recent entry:
"May 26,6:30 pm ET.
Russian forces have made steady, incremental gains in heavy fighting in eastern Ukraine in the past several days, though Ukrainian defenses remain effective overall. Deputy Ukrainian Defense Minister Hanna Malyar stated that the fighting is currently at its "maximum intensity" compared to previous Russian assaults and will likely continue to escalate. (1) Spokesperson for the Ukrainian Defense Ministry Oleksandr Motuzyanyk characterized Russian gains as "temporary success" and stated that Ukrainian forces are using a maneuver defense to put pressure on Russian advances in key areas. (2) Russian forces have now taken control of over 95% of Luhansk Oblast and will likely continue efforts to complete the capture of Severodonetsk in the coming days. (3) Russian forces have made several gains in the past week, but their offensive operations remain slow. Russian forces are heavily degraded and will struggle to replace further losses.
Key Takeaways.
Russian forces unsuccessfully attempted to advance southeast of Izyum near the Kharkiv-Donetsk Oblast border.
Russian forces continued steady advances around Severodonetsk and likely seek to completely encircle the Severodonetsk-Lysychansk area in the coming days.
Russian forces continued to make persistent advances south and west of Popasna toward Bakhmut, but the Russian pace of advance will likely slow as they approach the town itself.
Russian forces in occupied areas of the Southern Axis are reportedly preparing a "third line of defense" to consolidate long-term control over the region and in preparation to repel likely future Ukrainian counteroffensives".
Anyone trying to predict the future, especially in a wartime situation, is a certifiable imbecile, and you certainly fit that profile. I'm happy to monitor the progress of actual events, which tend to speak for themselves. And at least one thing is crystal clear, the Russian army controls much less territory now than they did at the beginning of the invasion. Funny how the Kremlin spin doctors try to portray a humiliating retreat as something else. But their efforts fell flat and poor LilliPutin had nothing he could report in his "Victory" Day speech.
BTW, as far as all your anti-American caterwauling is concerned, to paraphrase the immortal phrase from Monty Python and the Holy Grail, I (and all Americans) fart in your general direction! And that's probably more effort than your pathetic, self-loathing, existence deserves.
P.S. Today's Russians are far removed from those who fought in WW-II. So it remains to be seen how much, if any, belt-leather chewing they're willing to endure. Also, the USSR would have totally collapsed before Hitler's army had it not been for the HUGE amount of Lend-Lease support from (wait for it) America! Do a web search for yourself, I dare you.
Please don't confuse my responses to him as any kind of attempt to convince or persuade, as I'm well aware that he exists in a delusional bubble of his own creation.
Most of the time my responses are to poke fun at him, or show how Putin is a ridicule-worthy "Emperor Who Has No Clothes," or simply to ensure that his bile-filled posts don't exist in a vacuum. And, when I talk about Pedrito, I include his clone (Golfito), as well.
And I'm fine with being the "new mark" for one, or both, as I regularly give much better than they can dish out. I must confess, it is an enjoyable experience when I wipe the debate-floor with them.
Hope that clarifies things.I'm enjoying your posts.
It's a good read and gives some insight into dysfunctions within the Russian govt, and the prevailing mentality in Moscow, from the perspective of a career officer in the Foreign Ministry.
Here's the article on the original website. It's paywalled but you should see a link at the bottom that allows you to view one article for free. If you don't see that link, try clearing cache and cookies and give it another go:
https://puck.news/ukraine-must-win-a-kremlin-defector-tells-all/
If that doesn't work for you, here's an archived version:
https://archive.ph/Vh8hb
His overall conclusion: Ukraine must win!From the interview.
"Today, Henry Kissinger said that Ukraine should find a compromise with Russia and cede some of its territory. What do you think of that? Is it time to negotiate a ceasefire?
'No way. You can't. You just can't make peace now. If you do, it will be seen as a Russian victory. Russia will spend a couple years scraping together some resources and then it will do this again. This won't teach them anything. Only a total and clear defeat that is obvious to everyone will teach them. That's why Putin is so scared of losing, that's why the nuclear threat keeps coming up, because it's his last trump card. That's why I think it's so important to make clear to these people who think, we can hit America or Poland with a nuclear weapon and nothing will happen to us, to show them that, yes, it will. As soon as your finger starts creeping toward the nuclear button, something will happen. That's the only way.'"
PedroMorales
05-27-22, 19:42
The Iranian Navy (IRGC) have captured two Greek tankers in the Persian Gulf in retaliation for Greek and US pirates stealing an Iranian tanker. The 5th Paper Tiger navy is looking into it. Tick tock. Bye bye to your empire of evil.
Fascinating letter which recognizes (and criticizes) the failure of the "special operation" and calls for full mobilization and total war.
https://m-kalashnikov.livejournal.com/4243623.html
Here's the opening section:
"We, veterans of the Armed Forces and special services of Russia, united in the All-Russian Officers' Assembly, together with the majority of our people, enthusiastically supported the decision of the President of the Russian Federation and Supreme Commander-in-Chief V. V. Putin on the conduct of a special military operation for the armed protection of the inhabitants of the DPR and LPR, the demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine. At the same time, carefully analyzing the course of almost three months of hostilities, we came to the conclusion that the special military operation that began on February 24, unfortunately, ended in failure: after a month of hostilities, Russian troops retreated from the captured bridgeheads near Kyiv, left the liberated territories in Sumy and Chernihiv regions in the north and Mykolaiv region in the south of the so-called Ukraine. All this happened under the pretext of displaying the "good will" of the President of the Russian Federation. But the question naturally arose in our minds: whose evil will was carried out by citizen V. Putin, giving the troops a humiliating order to retreat".
And there's much more. This letter is an eye-opening look at the delusion, paranoia, and warped world-view that underpin Russian support for this war, and should be required reading for anyone who believes there's a rational basis for negotiations, or common ground of any kind. In fact, these war-hawk extremists are those who, if Putin ends up getting deposed or sidelined, will most likely be responsible. And then one of their leaders will be calling the shots, both figuratively and literally.
Note: The letter is in Russian so you'll need to use your preferred translation method. Opening the link with the Chrome browser is one easy way, as the translation prompt should open automatically.
enthusiastically supported the decision of the President of the Russian Federation and Supreme Commander-in-Chief V. V. Putin on the conduct of a special military operation for the armed protection of the inhabitants of the DPR and LPR, the demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine.A bunch of scumbags who love killing Ukrainians, but protest that's it's less efficient than they'd like to see. In all seriousness, there is nothing eye-opening about this letter. It's completely in line with the views of Girkin-Strelkov, the original "paramilitary" commander in Donbass and former FSB operative. This letter has all the markings of the under-the-rug struggle between Siloviki.
It's either sheer idiocy or treachery to even presume that Russians would be satisfied with the lands they've already conquered. Whatever peace deal the French and Italians are trying to push on Ukraine won't be worth the ink or the paper.
The second assumption made by those advocating off-ramps is that Russia, even if it were to begin negotiating, would stick to the agreements it signed. Even an ordinary cease-fire has to involve concessions on both sides, and anything more substantive would require a longer list of pledges and promises. But brazen dishonesty is now a normal part of Russian foreign policy as well as domestic propaganda.https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/05/why-ukraine-must-defeat-putin-russia/629940/
Ukrainians have to keep fighting not because it's their choice, but because they have no choice. Some western countries must stop smoking whatever they're smoking and give them every weapon in the world they need. Because the West doesn't have a choice either. Carthage must be, well, neutralized.
"The borders of Russia do not end anywhere" - Putin.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ou8mI_ce80s
A bunch of scumbags who love killing Ukrainians, but protest that's it's less efficient than they'd like to see. In all seriousness, there is nothing eye-opening about this letter. It's completely in line with the views of Girkin-Strelkov, the original "paramilitary" commander in Donbass and former FSB operative. This letter has all the markings of the under-the-rug struggle between Siloviki.To begin with, I agree with your characterization, in this and your other recent post, of Putin as a murderous evil dictator with dreams of (at least) pan-European domination. For those people who have understood that reality from the beginning, this letter reveals nothing new.
But for those, no matter how well-intentioned, who mistakenly project their own framework of rationality and diplomacy on the Kremlin, this letter (and similar disclosures) should begin the process of opening eyes and hammering home the truth that nothing less than a comprehensive Russian defeat will suffice. Using a European example, I would assert that the Baltics and Poland, at a minimum, have already arrived at the "comprehensive defeat" position. Other countries not so much, as reflected in recent calls for "a few" Ukrainian territorial concessions.
Pulling back the propaganda-curtain, and the facade of "reasonableness" is a process more than an event. And during that process there will be those who refuse to acknowledge the clear evidence even if it's rubbed in their faces. Others will be slow, but will see and understand, and yet others will be shouting "What took you so long?" in exasperated voices. I'm hoping that the constant drip-drip of these kinds of disclosures ends up turning into a flood such that those who aren't (or are trying not to be) engaged will be unable to ignore it.
PedroMorales
05-28-22, 00:19
Funny to see the American ghetto dwellers lose their shit. As well as two Greek tankers to Iran because of American piracy. I haven't read the resident troll here as I am still battling recent injuries (three plus weeks, killing me) and the chimp has nothing worthwhile to say anyway.
If you are American, best you check out the Grand Canyon, Disneyland (no oil LOL) or some other place you have totally cleansed of locals.
Zelensky sues for peace (yawn) and addresses Stanford students, which makes sense. Moronic Ivy league graduates being addressed by a gangster who plays the piano with his cock and a guitar in the nude.
Hugh Hefner without Viagra.
How much to fuck a Stanford Ivy Leaguer? Is CIM extra? More or less than a Ukrainian and are hamburgers extra?
https://mobile.twitter.com/generalsvr_en/status/1530125712476225536
This Twitter account claims that the info they publish is obtained from active and retired intel personnel with sources within Russia. I have no way to verify that claim, but their threads do make for some interesting reading. Reality is the ultimate source of confirmation and verification, of course, so the true test will be whether or not any of the predictions actually play out.
With that caveat, this is posted in a "something to watch out for" sense. In this particular case, the key event is whether Putin's daughter, Katerina Tikhonova, will be elevated to the top leadership position of Putin's United Russia party. Patrushev, the plan's other component, is already on the Kremlin leadership team so not much more needs to happen with respect to him. It's Tikhonova's chess piece that still needs to be moved into position.
The entire (short) thread is worth reading. Here's an excerpt (2nd to last para):
"Those with access to #Putin's ears view Tikhonova as the only possible guarantor of the stability of the regime without being a direct successor. Being the head of the ruling party & effectively running the State Duma & the Senat, Tikhonova would counterbalance any president."
So the succession plan would involve co-leadership roles for Patrushev and Tikhonova. And, while I'm sure some will reply with all the reasons such an arrangement won't work (I can think of quite a few, myself), that's not the point. The important issue is whether or not the Kremlin elite, faced with few good post-Putin options, might see this as a solution that ensures near-term stability and continuity.
Also, there's always the possibility that Putin will be able to manage his health problems and hang on for longer than expected, which would render this succession plan moot, or at least put on hold. Only time will tell, but I'll be watching for any Tikhonova-related news.
The Iranian Navy (IRGC) have captured two Greek tankers in the Persian Gulf in retaliation for Greek and US pirates stealing an Iranian tanker. The 5th Paper Tiger navy is looking into it. Tick tock. Bye bye to your empire of evil.You really should start a fan club for anti-American pipsqueaks. You could host meetings with pot-luck dinners featuring Iranian-North Korean fusion cuisine! How does kimchi goat & rat casserole sound? Garnished, of course, with strips of the finest Russian belt leather!
Seriously, for how many decades have the Ayatollah's butt-boys been screaming "Death to America" and "Death to Israel" at the top of their lungs? And yet both America and Israel are hanging in there just fine. In fact, with the recently enacted Abraham Accords, Israel now has diplomatic relations with Arab countries who were former enemies. And, in case you've forgotten, the Arabs hate the Persians.
Oh yes, and as far as navies are concerned, "Remember the Moskva" is a phrase that comes to mind.
Funny to see the American ghetto dwellers lose their shit. As well as two Greek tankers to Iran because of American piracy. I haven't read the resident troll here as I am still battling recent injuries (three plus weeks, killing me) and the chimp has nothing worthwhile to say anyway.
If you are American, best you check out the Grand Canyon, Disneyland (no oil LOL) or some other place you have totally cleansed of locals.
Zelensky sues for peace (yawn) and addresses Stanford students, which makes sense. Moronic Ivy league graduates being addressed by a gangster who plays the piano with his cock and a guitar in the nude.
Hugh Hefner without Viagra.
How much to fuck a Stanford Ivy Leaguer? Is CIM extra? More or less than a Ukrainian and are hamburgers extra?Do you have any idea how transparently lame that is? Are you really so deluded that you think you're fooling anyone? I guess you're a perfect example of the truism that, just like a person who stinks becomes nose-blind to their own smell, so will an idiot be blind to their own idiocy.
Too bad for you that everyone else in the forum can clearly see (and smell) the truth.
BTW, you really should find some new sources of anti-American insults. Your current stock is apparently getting thin and you're repeating yourself often. Unless, of course, bitter and miserable rage is also making you forgetful.
But really, more variety would be appreciated as it makes it easier for Americans to have a hearty laugh as they proceed on their upward trajectory! It's amazing how, the same Europe that LilliPutin craved for himself is the Europe that he's pushed away and right into the arms of America!
PedroMorales
05-28-22, 08:39
for anti-American pipsqueaks. Iranian-North Korean kimchi rat casserole Ayatollah's butt-boys "Death to America" and "Death to Israel" the Arabs hate the Persians.
.Leaving the rank racism to one side, though Iran is the world's main Shia nation, many "Arabs", not least in Lebanon, are Shia. There are many Sunni in Iran though Bigot man here would not know that. Plus lots of Christians, Alawi, Druze, Yezidi and other minorities. I think we can all agree that the bigotry, racism and supremacism Mr Hasbara where displays is going to bit back in a big way.
Let's all salute Iran, who paid back American pirates in kind.
Let's all salute British mercenaries Shaun Pinner and Andrew Hill and Moroccan Ibrahim Saadoun, who face justice in liberated Ukraine. Russian military spokesman Major General Igor Konashenkov said earlier that the best thing the foreign mercenaries could expect was a "long term in prison. " ¿Two scumbags swinging at the end of ropes might send a clear message back to Blighty, no?
Joe is at it again, LOL.
PRES. BIDEN.
A SECOND -- DID ANYBODY THINK ON OUR CALL FOR SANCTIONS AGAINST RUSSIA, IN ADDITION TO NATO? TO Australia? Japan. NORTH Korea, WHICH STAND UP AND SUPPORT THOSE SANCTIONS. THE WORLD IS MOVING SO RAPIDLY. I NEED NOT TELL YOU AVIATORS, WITHIN THE NEXT DECADE, YOU WILL BE ABLE TO CIRCUMVENT;.
https://www.c-span.org/video/?c5016937/user-clip-biden-mistakenly-north-korea-stood-putin
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10862129/amp/Biden-raises-eyebrows-saying-North-Korea-stood-against-Russia.html
From the interview.
"Today, Henry Kissinger said that Ukraine should find a compromise with Russia and cede some of its territory. What do you think of that? Is it time to negotiate a ceasefire?
'No way. You can't. You just can't make peace now. If you do, it will be seen as a Russian victory. Russia will spend a couple years scraping together some resources and then it will do this again. This won't teach them anything. Only a total and clear defeat that is obvious to everyone will teach them...........I don't think Putin will live to see the Russians scrape enough resources to do serious harm. Even if Russia is pushed out of Eastern Ukraine, I think they will continue to fuck with their weaker neighbors. Possibly they will fuck with weak countries as a way to save some face from the Ukraine debacle.
I believe inherently there are Munich 1938 recollections. Hitler's Germany was relatively stronger and Europe weaker in the late 1930's.
A complete collapse of the Russian government could be a lot more volatile and dangerous than some Russian tanks. I believe that's what Kissinger fears. The optimal result is a subtle transition of power to less militaristic leadership. Yes, I know. That's optimistic.
QUOTE=PedroMorales.
Let's all salute Iran.
Let's all.
QUOTE.
Saluting Iran when its Free from Mullahs Rule.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=qfEJPjWFoEw
QUOTE=Jmsuttr.
And, in case you've forgotten, the Arabs hate the Persians.
QUOTE.
No Love Lost in Iran as Iran occupies their Land according to sources https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arab_separatism_in_Khuzestan.
"Since the 1920's, tensions have often resulted in violence and attempted separatism, including the insurgency in 1979, unrest in 2005, terrorist bombings in 2005–2006, protests in 2011, assassinations in 2017, and the 2018 Ahvaz military parade attack.
Iran officially denies any discrimination or the existence of conflict within the country. It has however drawn strong criticism from human rights organizations including accusations of ethnic discrimination and ethnic cleansing. '.
Leaving the rank racism to one side, though Iran is the world's main Shia nation, many "Arabs", not least in Lebanon, are Shia. There are many Sunni in Iran though Bigot man here would not know that. Plus lots of Christians, Alawi, Druze, Yezidi and other minorities. I think we can all agree that the bigotry, racism and supremacism Mr Hasbara where displays is going to bit back in a big way.
Let's all salute Iran, who paid back American pirates in kind.
Let's all salute British mercenaries Shaun Pinner and Andrew Hill and Moroccan Ibrahim Saadoun, who face justice in liberated Ukraine. Russian military spokesman Major General Igor Konashenkov said earlier that the best thing the foreign mercenaries could expect was a "long term in prison. " Two scumbags swinging at the end of ropes might send a clear message back to Blighty, no?The post to which you replied had literally one sentence that tangentially mentioned Arab-Persian attitudes, and wasn't even the main point of the post. As usual, you try to make mountains out of molehills and end up looking stupid.
Had Arab-Persian relations been my main point, I would have posted relevant articles to support my assertions. I'm happy to do so now and, as always, people are invited to read, make up their own minds, and join the debate if they want. Of course, since this is a forum dedicated to issues pertaining to Kyiv and Ukraine, I don't know if anyone will want to follow you down that particular anti-American rabbit hole.
But, for anyone interested in the topic of Arab vs Persian animosity (which goes both ways), I would invite them to do a brief web search. It took me less than a minute to find several articles, one of which features an interview of an Iranian intellectual, explaining the hatred in both historical and cultural contexts.
https://english.alarabiya.net/articles/2011%2F10%2F09%2F170927
Also, since you mention minorities in Iran as though all is harmonious, here's an article detailing the Iranian regime's treatment of minority groups:
https://www.arabnews.com/node/1822151/middle-east
There are varying levels of evidence suitable for inclusion in an informed debate. Pure opinion, with zero substantiation, is so low that it's not even worthy of being classified as evidence. You continue to search for water in the Sahara of your own desiccated mind, looking for things to say, no matter how stupid. And you continue to twist and mischaracterize what others post. Not to worry, as I'll always be here to expose how empty of substance (albeit full to the brim with bile!) your pseudo-arguments are. Better luck next time!
P.S. Pointing out a true and verifiable fact, namely the existence of a current (and centuries old) hatred between Arabs and Persians, can only be portrayed as racist or bigoted by someone who either chooses to ignore the facts, or is unable to construct a substantive rebuttal. In other words, it's simply a variant of ad hominem employed by those who can't come up with anything better. A truly lame, despicable, and desperate tactic.
PedroMorales
05-29-22, 16:55
Being grounded and pounded in the East, as their wives are pounded elsewhere. EU crying for talks, as is that idiot Zelensky.
Von der Leyen saying to buy Russian oil to stop Russia selling it elsewhere. Now you know why you cannot be taken seriously.
Greece made a big mistake helping the USA steal that tanker of oil. 25% of tankers off the Iranian coast, that can easily be made an Iranian lake, fly the Greek flag.
Go back to your hamburgers and school shootings.
I don't think Putin will live to see the Russians scrape enough resources to do serious harm. Even if Russia is pushed out of Eastern Ukraine, I think they will continue to fuck with their weaker neighbors. Possibly they will fuck with weak countries as a way to save some face from the Ukraine debacle.
I believe inherently there are Munich 1938 recollections. Hitler's Germany was relatively stronger and Europe weaker in the late 1930's.
A complete collapse of the Russian government could be a lot more volatile and dangerous than some Russian tanks. I believe that's what Kissinger fears. The optimal result is a subtle transition of power to less militaristic leadership. Yes, I know. That's optimistic.Kissinger's "fears" aren't helpful. Western fear has been a lot of the problem when it comes to a slowed response and reluctance to send offensive weapons. Russia has no integrity, and any ceasefire just gives them time to regroup and for the West to drop their guard, then they can go in again to annex all of Ukraine, which they feel they are entitled to. Much of the fear is unwarranted. If Russia resorts to tactical nukes they at best completely isolate themselves. On a larger scale it's suicide. There's no evidence that anyone there is suicidal. If you have anything on Putin's health besides rumor please post it. Much of it goes back many years.
https://www.newsweek.com/putin-health-rumors-cancer-parkinsons-disease-russia-ukraine-1704211
P.S. As to Russia becoming more dangerous with a collapse of the government, that also doesn't make a lot of sense. At such a time they would likely be more concerned with domestic affairs, as they were after the fall of the USSR.
Being grounded and pounded in the East, as their wives are pounded elsewhere. EU crying for talks, as is that idiot Zelensky.
Von der Leyen saying to buy Russian oil to stop Russia selling it elsewhere. Now you know why you cannot be taken seriously.
Greece made a big mistake helping the USA steal that tanker of oil. 25% of tankers off the Iranian coast, that can easily be made an Iranian lake, fly the Greek flag.
Go back to your hamburgers and school shootings.Did you also predict a French victory at Agincourt? Or a victory for Rommel at El Alamein? If you're looking for an idiot, try looking in the mirror, because only an idiot looks at a ripple and thinks he can predict the tide.
The supposedly formidable Russian army was forced into a humiliating retreat from Kyiv, which even retired Russian officers (see previously posted letter) acknowledge. They control much less territory than at the beginning of the invasion and are now desperately trying to control Severodonetsk for purely domestic political reasons. Putin needs something, anything, that he can frame as a "victory," so he's directed his army to focus on Luhansk Oblast. The problem is that political pressures are pushing that army to attack without proper preparation or support, and they're losing men and equipment every step (forward AND backward) of the way. You can read an independent assessment here:
https://www.understandingwar.org/
As anyone who isn't a prisoner of their own opinion-bubble can see, the actual state of the war is a grinding give and take. And one piece of information that's being reported today is that a Ukrainian counter-offensive in the Kherson area is underway. So, even if one side is able to take a bit of ground today, that's no guarantee they can hold it tomorrow.
How things will turn out on the battlefield is still an open question, and anyone with a shred of intellectual integrity will admit that there are a vast number of variables, known and unknown, in play. But, as you've consistently demonstrated in this forum, you wouldn't recognize integrity, of any kind, if it walked up and (just like your fave Medellin trannies) bit you in the ass.
P.S. Thanks for mentioning Iran! It seems they recently had some problems at one of their "secret" drone bases, and reportedly it was an attack that was launched from within Iran itself. Isn't it interesting that they apparently lack control over their own territory? Maybe they can ask Greece for some help with that.
Elvis 2008
05-29-22, 21:36
Quite a thought-provoking map, eh?No, it is mental masturbation.
But only delusional fools think they can predict the future. I'm satisfied with accurately observing present realities and proposing reasonable extrapolations from that body of evidence.
And there is no reality-based scenario or extrapolation in which Russia wins. Meanwhile, Ukraine is being continually replenished and refreshed by the US, NATO, and a coalition of freedom-loving nations.And if the Russians nuke the bridges, airports, and roads, how are all those munitions going to get into Ukraine? And do freedom loving nations seize assets based on nationality with no due process? Maybe we should round up all Russian-Americans and put them in concentration camps like we did with the Japanese in the 40's. Was that freedom loving?
And I do not get the whole concept of victory. The "experts" said the Russian army was going to take all over all of Europe and only the Polish army stood in the way. Then Ukraine was going to win. Now a week later Russia is going to win. What does winning even mean? Did we "win" in Afghanistan or Iraq?
We have this shooter in Buffalo who killed people that were his enemy based on race, and you expect the mentally ill to understand that killing based on race is bad but killing on nationality is good? I think that is confusing to sane people. The whole concept that killing can equal victory makes little sense to me.
There is a better way. To stay in power, dictators need money and if you look at the country with the worst civil rights in the world, only North Korea is one that is not a big time player with oil and natural gas. The war on terror was not won with bullets but by new oil drilling techniques, and that is how the war on dictators could be won as well.
Instead of the disgusting drilling for shale oil and gas, the Europeans went to solar and wind while bragging about climate change and then snuck in oil and gas from Russia. How did that work out? The only nation doing shale drilling in Europe with any scale is Poland.
Trump told the Europeans it was stupid for America to pay to defend Europe while Europe was buying oil and natural gas from Russia. That money to buy gas and oil was used to Russian munitions.
I do not get why we are spending $40 billon on arms for Ukraine versus LNG terminals in Europe and providing loans so Europe can develop their own shale resources. Why spend to destroy versus build? If Russia goes into a NATO nation, they are going to be nuked. Period. Why do we need to buy more bombs when we can blow up the world 20 X over?
I will not even be partisan here. Look at this chart. https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/hist/e_ertrr0_xr0_nus_cm.htm.
Now look at January 2012 during Obama's rule. There were 2,003 rigs going. Despite oil being higher now and nat gas being way higher, there are only 727 going. I do not care about Ukraine. With that rig count, "victory" against Russia and Putin is a pipe dream.
PedroMorales
05-29-22, 23:15
Ukrainian Army getting pounded, Israel upset
But, for anyone interested in the topic of Arab vs Persian animosity .You know nothing about it. Go beat up an old lady by the Damascus Gate. It is where your strength lies, there and killing Melkite journalists.
Here is Wikipedia on Iranian ethnicities https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethnicities_in_Iran.
Allegiances of Turkmen vary from place to place. Big component of your ISIS buddies.
I wonder how your mercenaries are getting on in East Ukraine. Coming up against a real army. I've just been reading US and German ones took a pounding. Let's hope others did too. Off you go now and beat up an old lady and rob her house.
P.S.: I skim your BS as you have nothing to say. Ditto your MB / Saudi links. Off you go now and beat up an old lady and rob her house.
Joe is at it again, LOL.
PRES. BIDEN.
A SECOND -- DID ANYBODY THINK ON OUR CALL FOR SANCTIONS AGAINST RUSSIA, IN ADDITION TO NATO? TO Australia? Japan. NORTH Korea, WHICH STAND UP AND SUPPORT THOSE SANCTIONS. THE WORLD IS MOVING SO RAPIDLY. I NEED NOT TELL YOU AVIATORS, WITHIN THE NEXT DECADE, YOU WILL BE ABLE TO CIRCUMVENT;.
https://www.c-span.org/video/?c5016937/user-clip-biden-mistakenly-north-korea-stood-putin
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10862129/amp/Biden-raises-eyebrows-saying-North-Korea-stood-against-Russia.htmlLooks like he said North Korea when he meant to say South Korea. Big deal, is hardly worth the cap key. Many of Trump's gaffes and word salads are legendary, such as "oranges of the investigation" Ha Ha. But even that isn't worth the cap key or steering us off topic in a Kyiv discussion, even though Biden had enough going on between his ears to mop the floor with Trump in two debates.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qUPsNgmXR7M
You know nothing about it. Go beat up an old lady by the Damascus Gate. It is where your strength lies, there and killing Melkite journalists.
Here is Wikipedia on Iranian ethnicities https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethnicities_in_Iran.
Allegiances of Turkmen vary from place to place. Big component of your ISIS buddies.
I wonder how your mercenaries are getting on in East Ukraine. Coming up against a real army. I've just been reading US and German ones took a pounding. Let's hope others did too. Off you go now and beat up an old lady and rob her house.
P.S.: I skim your BS as you have nothing to say. Ditto your MB / Saudi links. Off you go now and beat up an old lady and rob her house.Maybe Wikipedia can help you improve your repertoire of insults? Because they are lame beyond belief.
Here's a short lesson: In order for an insult to truly hit a nerve, it needs to have some basis in fact, even if only a little. For example, if you happened to be skinny as a rail, then it would be stupid to try to use something like "fat pig" as an insult. It simply lacks any believability which robs it of any efficacy as an insult. But using something like meth-addled anorexic could work, because those would have a connection to the reality of your appearance.
Obviously, on an anonymous fuckboard there's no way to ascertain physical attributes. But there certainly is ample opportunity to examine ideas, or lack thereof, how people express themselves, and to what degree logic and intelligence is reflected in their posts.
And that's why your attempt to insult by calling me racist falls completely flat. Because it's not connected to any reality, except as a figment of your warped imagination. And, if no one except you believes it, then it's as meaningless as if you declared that it's nighttime when everyone else can clearly see the sun shining.
OTOH, if I call you a brainless bile-duct whose only access to information comes (pun intended) when you suck Dickipedia, then that's an insult with some sticking power because it accurately reflects a number of the traits you've demonstrated.
See how that works? Any questions?
But for those, no matter how well-intentioned, who mistakenly project their own framework of rationality and diplomacy on the Kremlin, this letter (and similar disclosures) should begin the process of opening eyes and hammering home the truth that nothing less than a comprehensive Russian defeat will suffice.Let's hope so, but I think MLRS (if and when they finally arrive) might help bring it home much faster.
A complete collapse of the Russian government could be a lot more volatile and dangerous than some Russian tanks. I believe that's what Kissinger fears. The optimal result is a subtle transition of power to less militaristic leadership. Yes, I know. That's optimistic.Well, it's the 21st century and it ain't kind to empires. Even the second half of the 20th century wasn't kind to empires, and France and the UK can attest to that. The Russian empire is going to disintegrate just like many before it, and I believe it'll be better for everyone, this way, including the Russians.
The dissolution of the USSR was definitely a positive thing for Russia, Europe and the world. Not it's time to finish the job.
As to a "subtle transition of power", yes, it would be nice, but Russia has never been known for 'subtleties', LOL.
No, it is mental masturbation.
1. And if the Russians nuke the bridges, airports, and roads, how are all those munitions going to get into Ukraine?
2. Maybe we should round up all Russian-Americans and put them in concentration camps like we did with the Japanese in the 40's. Was that freedom loving?Now, these are mental masturbations.
No, it is mental masturbation.
And if the Russians nuke the bridges, airports, and roads, how are all those munitions going to get into Ukraine? And do freedom loving nations seize assets based on nationality with no due process? Maybe we should round up all Russian-Americans and put them in concentration camps like we did with the Japanese in the 40's. Was that freedom loving?
And I do not get the whole concept of victory. The "experts" said the Russian army was going to take all over all of Europe and only the Polish army stood in the way. Then Ukraine was going to win. Now a week later Russia is going to win. What does winning even mean? Did we "win" in Afghanistan or Iraq?
We have this shooter in Buffalo who killed people that were his enemy based on race, and you expect the mentally ill to understand that killing based on race is bad but killing on nationality is good? I think that is confusing to sane people. The whole concept that killing can equal victory makes little sense to me..First of all, the map I posted that purports to be from Chinese media was intended as a dig at Pedro M, and anyone who thinks China gives a shit about Russia. It's purely reflective of someone's idea of what a disintegrated Russia might look like, and I took it as a tongue-in-cheek exercise, nothing more.
Second, you seem to take issue with my statement that:
"But only delusional fools think they can predict the future. I'm satisfied with accurately observing present realities and proposing reasonable extrapolations from that body of evidence.
And there is no reality-based scenario or extrapolation in which Russia wins. Meanwhile, Ukraine is being continually replenished and refreshed by the US, NATO, and a coalition of freedom-loving nations".
With which part do you have a problem? With my refusal to engage in predicting the future (and my criticism of those who do so engage)?
Or is it my statement that there is no reality-based scenario in which Russia wins?
Please specify, as I'm happy to defend both of those positions.
As for my statement about Ukraine being replenished, that's simply an observation of the current state of affairs. Could that change? Absolutely! Although I personally haven't seen any observers worried that Putin would use nukes specifically to stop replenishment. Most analyses I've read tend to think he'd only resort to nukes if he perceived an existential threat to Russia which, if Ukraine is only using weapons on its own territory, would seem to not cross those red lines.
But that's getting into the prediction business, isn't it? And that's where I've resisted going and criticized others for doing so. Putin has nukes, that's clearly true. And what's also true is that he can conjure up whatever excuse he wants, whenever he wants, to justify their use. Ukraine, and others, are betting that he's not a madman and they're refusing to allow him to use nuclear blackmail to get what he wants.
Is that the right course of action? Only time will tell. And that touches on your question about what constitutes a win. I would submit that only Russia and Ukraine can answer that. And also that any peace agreement can only happen when their two views get close enough to be within negotiating distance, which is nowhere close to happening.
As far as my statement that Russia has no winnable scenario, that's predicated on their false belief that Ukrainians would welcome them as liberators. With that notion debunked, what's left? Russia leaving Ukraine = defeat. Russia continuing to occupy all or part of Ukraine = continued sanctions + pariah status + impaired future prospects + similar items = more defeat. In other words, they're screwed whether they stay or go. That's not a prediction so much as it's an observation of how various end-game scenarios are likely to play out. If you see another possibility, by all means please share.
As for your comments about the Buffalo shooter and shale oil and Trump, it's my sense that you're venting more than making a specific, coherent argument.
Do you have a solution or prescription that you can articulate? Venting is understandable, as there are so many frustrating elements in the current situation, but what exactly do you think Russia and Ukraine should do?
P.S. As to Russia becoming more dangerous with a collapse of the government, that also doesn't make a lot of sense. At such a time they would likely be more concerned with domestic affairs, as they were after the fall of the USSR.That's the thing about uncertainty. It's uncertain.
When I wrote "a complete collapse of the Russian government." I was not thinking in terms of the Gorbachev to Yeltsin hand-off with Russia orderly breaking into more homogenous countries. I was thinking of a violent struggle for the leadership of a weakened, unstable nuclear state. I'm not really thinking the conventional Russian military is a threat to the West.
Since I don't have a crystal ball, I considered the possibility of a "subtle transition of power to less militaristic leadership."
Nothing personal, but can you really say with certainty you know how things would go down if the Russian government completely collapses? We don't even have the foggiest idea who might emerge as the leader. What if it's a crazy, Russian nationalist from the military no less?
As Xpartan brought up, the fall of empires have been a good think for humanity but they have also led to instability and violence in the transitory period. So be prepared for the worst.
Elvis 2008
05-30-22, 21:08
First of all, the map I posted that purports to be from Chinese media was intended as a dig at Pedro M, and anyone who thinks China gives a shit about Russia. It's purely reflective of someone's idea of what a disintegrated Russia might look like, and I took it as a tongue-in-cheek exercise, nothing more.
Second, you seem to take issue with my statement that:
"But only delusional fools think they can predict the future. I'm satisfied with accurately observing present realities and proposing reasonable extrapolations from that body of evidence.
And there is no reality-based scenario or extrapolation in which Russia wins. Meanwhile, Ukraine is being continually replenished and refreshed by the US, NATO, and a coalition of freedom-loving nations".
With which part do you have a problem? With my refusal to engage in predicting the future (and my criticism of those who do so engage)?
Or is it my statement that there is no reality-based scenario in which Russia wins?
Please specify, as I'm happy to defend both of those positions.Well, first, there is the contradiction. No one knows what is going to happen but there is no way Russia "wins". IMO even if Putin negotiates peace, he is going to declare victory.
As for a reality based scenario, Russia has nukes. Ukraine does not so unless Ukraine has nukes, they are outgunned. The question then is not if Russia can win but how badly it wants to.
As of now, this appears to be more of a land grab / theft versus Ukraine being a true threat to Russia. If Ukraine victory is not defined as retaking their homeland but attacking Russia with a goal of regime change, I think the use of nukes goes from unlikely to possible / probable.
What bugs me is the illogical Democratic view. On one hand, they look at Putin as a crazed mad man who is worse than Hitler and has to be removed from power. OTOH, they think he is rational enough to not use nukes. Worse yet is one hysterical warmonger's case where there is the belief that a nuclear war is winnable:https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-us-show-it-can-win-a-nuclear-war-russia-putin-ukraine-nato-sarmat-missile-testing-warning-11651067733.
Despite all the tough talk, if Russia uses nukes, there likely will be condemnation from the world community, but I doubt any other nation would respond in kind.
And that touches on your question about what constitutes a win. I would submit that only Russia and Ukraine can answer that. And also that any peace agreement can only happen when their two views get close enough to be within negotiating distance, which is nowhere close to happening.I do not agree. Russia can declare victory with its land expansion. Ukraine can declare victory with saying it protected its homeland from a country with a superior military. The problem is the USA and Biden who let slip that Putin cannot stay in power. Look at the rabid Dems who post here. Is this really a war between Ukraine and Russia or a proxy war between the USA and Russia? The Dems have been fucking around with Russia and Ukraine since 2014. Victory for the Dems is not that the death and destruction stop in Ukraine. No, it is bragging they got Putin out of power so they have something to run on in the midterm elections.
As for your comments about the Buffalo shooter and shale oil and Trump, it's my sense that you're venting more than making a specific, coherent argument.
Do you have a solution or prescription that you can articulate? Venting is understandable, as there are so many frustrating elements in the current situation, but what exactly do you think Russia and Ukraine should do?Before you get to the solution, what exactly is the problem? Russia is going to take over Europe? That is a fear not a problem. How the fuck does Russia do that when both the USA and Europe have nukes?
IMO the problem is that the Dems still feel that Trump won in 2016 because of Putin, and the Dems want payback and the glory of taking him out. And the Dems think what is good for them is good for America. What does Putin being in power mean to the average American's life? Very little. And if he is taken out, what guarantee is there that Putin's replacement will be less evil? None.
The notion of sticking it to the Russians and killing their soldiers may sound satisfying, but you cannot tell me that glorifying killing has nothing to do with school shootings, so that makes me feel less secure. And giving javelin and stinger missiles to Ukraine, a notoriously corrupt country, without proper accountability hardly makes me feel secure either. Stinger missiles cannot just take out airplanes but skyscrapers, and it is just takes one to get into the wrong hands.
The notion that Putin is a threat to Democracy and Russiagate was not is insulting. I do not think this is a war between Russia and Ukraine but between Putin and the Democrats. If the Democrats want to convince me and other Republicans Putin is truly evil and they are not crying wolf, they have to admit that Russiagate was a fraud and agree to investigate and prosecute those responsible. Until then, I think a lot of Republicans will have a hard time believing Putin being a threat is real; it is just the Dems being hysterical again and trying to justify Russiagate.
Assuming they can make that case, what can the USA do to limit Putin's power? You are not going to beat a nuclear power in a war. That is just stupid. The cold war was won economically, and the thing that would limit Putin's power the most is cheap oil and natural gas. The Democrats have to make a choice once again: which is a bigger threat to the USA, Dems? Putin or climate change? You do not get it both ways. Instead of arming Ukraine, to me, investment in oil and gas makes far more sense.
If you are going to use the military or give a nation arms, there has to be a mission and a achievable one at that. So what is the goal with arming Ukraine? Limiting Russia's land grab? So what? We have a repeat of the moronic domino theory that if Russia takes parts of Ukraine, the rest of Europe is next? Please.
I am not in favor of a military solution, but when has the USA military really been successful? The only war I would say the USA was in that was an unqualified success since WW2 was Grenada. It was easily winnable, and the mission was clear.
If you want to use military might and hurt Putin in the name of Democracy, and I am not in favor of this, an invasion of Venezuela makes the most sense. That nation has been hampered by a corrupt dictator and the people have suffered because of it, and it sits on the largest oil reserves in the world. You can use drug trafficking or the Russian presence there as an excuse for an invasion. Developing those reserves would lower the price of crude and hurt Putin, help the Venezuelan people in having a higher standard of living, and help much of the world with cheaper energy prices. Unlike in Ukraine, military action there has an achievable goal with a high likelihood of success but again, I am not favor of this.
It is just that I can see the upside for the USA and the world invading Venezuela. What is the goal of that $40 billion spent in Ukraine? Perpetual war? The Dems say they are spending that money to ensure victory. How the fuck is Ukraine going to beat a nuclear power without nukes?
PedroMorales
05-30-22, 23:08
Maybe Wikipedia can help you improve your repertoire of insults? Because they are lame beyond belief.
See how that works? Any questions?I am only looking in here to laugh at you. Now that the rest of the Stupid Shit in Medellin is here, I will look in less.
Wikipedia is a quick fire reference, used by me to show you know nothing about Iran.
Looking at your Medellin buddies thinking Russia is imploding, LOL.
Zelensky has lost the war but won the billions. Fancy going to Cannes and seeing that creep on the screen. Stanford Uni. Zelensky, what a shit show.
Did you enjoy beating up those old ladies by the Damascus Gate?
Hopefully, there will be an all round day of reckoning.
I am only looking in here to laugh at you. Now that the rest of the Stupid Shit in Medellin is here, I will look in less.
Wikipedia is a quick fire reference, used by me to show you know nothing about Iran.
Looking at your Medellin buddies thinking Russia is imploding, LOL.
Zelensky has lost the war but won the billions. Fancy going to Cannes and seeing that creep on the screen. Stanford Uni. Zelensky, what a shit show.
Did you enjoy beating up those old ladies by the Damascus Gate?
Hopefully, there will be an all round day of reckoning.If Russia has won, why are they still fighting?
Once again, declaring that it's nighttime, when everyone else can clearly see that the sun is shining, just reveals to everyone what a delusional nutjob you are.
Delusion #2 is your obsession with the Medellin threads, and somehow believing that I frequent that forum. Never have, and never will. But that's ok, it's understandable if you can't think straight while engaged in a Dickipedia suck-session.
BTW, please keep us posted if there's anything of interest in the Medellin forums. From everything I can tell, you're the only one, in this forum, who spends time in that one. I guess that must be because of your obsession with transsexuals. Whatever floats your boat. Unless, of course, your boat is the Moskva!
Oh, wait. The Moskva didn't sink, because Russia is winning, right? It must have done a super-secret transformation into a submarine.
P.S. Please message the Kremlin ASAP and let them know they're misspelling the name of their own country. When writing in English, they've been mistakenly using the spelling "Russia" and that's clearly wrong! And we know this because the self-appointed "expert" called Pedro Morales has demonstrated that "Rusisa" is the TRUE spelling. Thanks so much for clearing that up! Oh, and while you're at it, make sure you also tell Dickipedia when you visit them tonight.
Well, first, there is the contradiction. No one knows what is going to happen but there is no way Russia "wins". IMO even if Putin negotiates peace, he is going to declare victory.It's possible to look at a chessboard and, from the positions of the pieces and how much material each side has lost, extrapolate various endgame scenarios. Making an observation that most, or even all, of those scenarios aren't favorable to one side is not the same as making a prediction.
Let me again state my position, as clearly as I can:
Scenario 1:
If Russia leaves Ukraine, either to the Feb 24th boundaries or further, that will be seen as a clear defeat by just about everyone, whether inside Russia or not.
Scenario 2:
If Russia conquers all, or part of Ukraine, then they'll need to occupy it. However, post-2022 occupation is likely to be different, and much more difficult, than it was in 2014. The regions that Putin believed were pro-Russian have resisted strongly and it's highly likely that an occupational force would need to deal with insurgencies and local hostility. Ukraine would continue to be viewed as a victim by many and sanctions would continue to be imposed by many. Compared to pre-invasion Russia, the post-invasion situation would be more isolated and with numerous countries minimizing or eliminating the ties and relationships they once had.
I have no doubt that Putin would call #2 a victory, and might even be able to sell that to the Russian people. But calling it a "win" doesn't make it so, and an objective definition of victory generally means that you've gained more than you've lost. Putin's scorched-earth tactics have essentially leveled entire cities, like Mariupol. If he ends up holding territory that he's ruined, populated by people who will have a blood-feud mentality for generations, and has simultaneously turned most of the world against him, it's hard to see how that can objectively be characterized as a win. But I'm not disputing the fact that Putin will declare victory, no matter what.
What real victory would have looked like can be discerned from what we've learned about the Russian mindset, and objectives, at the beginning of the war. From everything I've seen and read, Russia believed there was a significant proportion of the Ukrainian people who would welcome them as liberators and would have no problem if a pro-Russia government was installed. Had Putin's army marched into Kyiv, removed Zelensky, installed new leadership, controlled the media, and had that new reality been readily accepted by significant numbers of Ukrainians, that would absolutely have been worthy of being declared a true win. But that didn't happen.
To sum up, since the true and unequivocal victory didn't happen, every remaining scenario is some version of failure. And success vs failure can be judged by objective measures, irrespective of what one side or the other says. Monty Python's Black Knight can claim that he's only suffered a scratch, but the reality is evident.
Again, if you see any realistic endgame scenario which lends itself to being objectively classified as a true Russian win, I'm all ears.
This first piece is a detailed look at Russia's military performance:
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00396338.2022.2078044
One good feature of this analysis is that it discusses the implications of the current conflict for the future military balance of power in Europe. And it also raises the question of whether Western analysts, having overestimated Russia's capabilities, might be making similar errors with respect to their assessment of NATO and other Western forces.
And this one examines a weapons system that Ukraine may get in the near future, and why it may be a game-changer:
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1531067601006301184.html
Whether or not Ukraine will receive the weapons systems described is yet to be seen. But the author argues that at least one of the MLRS systems will be delivered. There's also a companion piece with a lot of background technical info about various MLRS systems. It's best suited for military geeks but, if you want to take a look, here's the link:
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1531012132975910912.html
DramaFree11
05-31-22, 17:04
It's possible to look at a chessboard and, from the positions of the pieces and how much material each side has lost, extrapolate various endgame scenarios. Making an observation that most, or even all, of those scenarios aren't favorable to one side is not the same as making a prediction.
Let me again state my position, as clearly as I can:
Scenario 1:
If Russia leaves Ukraine, either to the Feb 24th boundaries or further, that will be seen as a clear defeat by just about everyone, whether inside Russia or not.
Scenario 2:.Nobody is winning, this is total mess. The longer this craziness continues, the world economy will tank, this is almost worst scenario, minus a Nuclear War.
Nobody is winning, this is total mess. The longer this craziness continues, the world economy will tank, this is almost worst scenario, minus a Nuclear War.If your neighbor, with whom you've had strained relations for years, breaks down your fence, comes into your house, and starts shooting, who bears primary responsibility for that situation?
If, in response to being attacked, you barricade yourself in a room, get your own gun, and return fire to defend yourself, is that somehow blameworthy? Also, in the event people are killed in the cross-fire, is there any sense in pointing the finger at both, or should it be pointed squarely in the face of the instigator?
I've never been one to defend Ukraine against allegations that they've stirred up shit against Russia in past years. And, considering the fact that they've been fighting each other (directly and via proxies) since 2014, it doesn't surprise me that there's bad blood and lots of antagonism.
But Russia is the bigger and stronger country, and they made a conscious decision to invade, thinking they could swallow Ukraine and bully the West into inaction by virtue of nuclear threats. They were wrong.
Now the bully's nose has been bloodied. They can turn around and go home or double-down on their aggression. It's entirely up to Russia, no one else.
If Russia stops fighting there will be no war, if Ukraine stops fighting there will be no Ukraine.
Nobody is winning, this is total mess. The longer this craziness continues, the world economy will tank, this is almost worst scenario, minus a Nuclear War.You've been singing this same simplistic song over and over since the war begin but it's likely to last another year or longer. Russia is too invested to back down. Ukraine wants them off their land and are willing to fight. The West will continue to arm them. There's wide bi-partisan support for the same in Congress, with only 11 Republican senators voting against the latest aid package. So keep whining but it's not going to change anything.
The first thing we need at when a war happens is who is benefitting! And did anyone do anything to stop it?
The US is not doing anything to stop the war for sure, who's industry is booming with this war!! Or special operation!!
What did we see??
Europe was not investing in military or weapons!!
Now, US has got multimillions $$ contacts for military equipment's from European countries.
Gas contacts for US companies, to mention few!
Who has lost?? The people of Ukraine.
Even the US knew there is a war coming, they asked their citizens to leave Ukraine, but didn't do anything to stop it!
Even now, US is not talking about negotiations to end the war, instead of how to prolong the war!!
Lefts fight till the end of who??
Why will they stop a war, as they know the business opportunity is their hands!!
There is no good in the world anymore, we can only choose the better evil!
If your neighbor, with whom you've had strained relations for years, breaks down your fence, comes into your house, and starts shooting, who bears primary responsibility for that situation?
If, in response to being attacked, you barricade yourself in a room, get your own gun, and return fire to defend yourself, is that somehow blameworthy? Also, in the event people are killed in the cross-fire, is there any sense in pointing the finger at both, or should it be pointed squarely in the face of the instigator?
I've never been one to defend Ukraine against allegations that they've stirred up shit against Russia in past years. And, considering the fact that they've been fighting each other (directly and via proxies) since 2014, it doesn't surprise me that there's bad blood and lots of antagonism..
DramaFree11
06-01-22, 17:01
The first thing we need at when a war happens is who is benefitting! And did anyone do anything to stop it?
The US is not doing anything to stop the war for sure, who's industry is booming with this war!! Or special operation!!
What did we see??
Europe was not investing in military or weapons!!
Now, US has got multimillions $$ contacts for military equipment's from European countries.
Gas contacts for US companies, to mention few!
Who has lost?? The people of Ukraine.
Even the US knew there is a war coming, they asked their citizens to leave Ukraine, but didn't do anything to stop it!
Even now, US is not talking about negotiations to end the war, instead of how to prolong the war!!
Lefts fight till the end of who?So true, they should be forced to negotiate and compromise. Instead of sending weapons, we should say enough is enough. Find a solution and end this crazy war.
Even now, US is not talking about negotiations to end the war, instead of how to prolong the war!!
Lefts fight till the end of who??
Why will they stop a war, as they know the business opportunity is their hands!!
There is no good in the world anymore, we can only choose the better evil!I understand your points. I generally agree with the recent posts that you don't want to prolong this war unnecessarily. There's a tendency for us armchair generals to look at a conventional war and think we can master a victory. Beyond the carnage and destruction, it ignores all the political chaos that ensues.
It's a bit audacious to presume the Ukraine itself will emerge a healthy, functioning democracy. I'm still not sure what would happen if Putin was deposed. There are no guarantees in what follows.
However, I do not agree the United States' role is that of peace negotiator. That is probably best left to Turkey or some other nation that doesn't represent a threat to either side. Perhaps China or even India has missed their opportunity to gain respect on the world stage.
The first thing we need at when a war happens is who is benefitting! And did anyone do anything to stop it?
The US is not doing anything to stop the war for sure, who's industry is booming with this war!! Or special operation!!
What did we see?
Europe was not investing in military or weapons!!
Now, US has got multimillions $$ contacts for military equipment's from European countries.
Gas contacts for US companies, to mention few!.I'm sure there are plenty of ways to look at the situation, including views from 10,000 feet that focus on which players (countries and companies) might benefit from, or be taking advantage of, the conflict.
But it's hard for me to concern myself with such issues while Ukrainians are being killed, captured, tortured, and their cities reduced to uninhabitable rubble.
When confronted with that in-your-face reality, there are only a very few questions at the top level of priority:
Q: Who bears primary responsibility for the conflict?
A: Russia.
Q: Who is the only party with the ability to unilaterally bring an end to the conflict?
A: Russia.
Q: How can the conflict be stopped?
A: By Russia deciding to stop, either by their own independent decision, or as a response to external and (or) internal pressures.
While other questions and issues may be valid and worth exploring, they must necessarily take a back seat to the primary issues listed above. I'm certainly open to debating which countries might secretly, or not so secretly, be hoping for Ukraine to fail (Serbia, Hungary, Germany, etc.), or which countries are giving Ukraine their full support (Poland, Baltics, etc.), or which countries (USA, France, Italy, etc.) might be slow-walking assistance because they see upsides to a protracted conflict.
I have no illusions about the fact that there are plenty of bad actors who could, and should, be named and shamed. But Job #1 is ending the war, full stop. And that will only happen if Russia has a change of mind (unlikely), or if a combination of battlefield defeats, attrition, and pressures from within and without, cause them to have that change of mind.
So true, they should be forced to negotiate and compromise. Instead of sending weapons, we should say enough is enough. Find a solution and end this crazy war.Russia is the aggressor and, in case you haven't noticed, there's no country that's currently able to force Russia to do anything. And any attempt at the direct application of force runs the risk of provoking the use of nukes.
So what does that leave as a realistic option? Going through the United Nations is worthless, as Russia (aided by China) is able to veto any attempt to problem solve by that toothless organization.
What else? Well, maybe the application of sanctions and other pressures by Europe, the US, and other nations. That's not force, per se, but rather an attempt to convince Russia that the present and future costs they'll incur will outweigh any benefits.
That's the only realistic path I can see, and that's what's currently being tried (as Ukraine defends itself in a struggle for survival). If you have a better solution, with a realistic chance of making a difference, please feel free to share.
BTW, if anyone thinks that peace is to be gained by forcing Ukraine only, while letting Russia do whatever it wants, I would refer them to VinDici's earlier post. Asking Ukraine to commit national suicide is a non-starter.
I understand your points. I generally agree with the recent posts that you don't want to prolong this war unnecessarily. There's a tendency for us armchair generals to look at a conventional war and think we can master a victory. Beyond the carnage and destruction, it ignores all the political chaos that ensues.
It's a bit audacious to presume the Ukraine itself will emerge a healthy, functioning democracy. I'm still not sure what would happen if Putin was deposed. There are no guarantees in what follows.
However, I do not agree the United States' role is that of peace negotiator. That is probably best left to Turkey or some other nation that doesn't represent a threat to either side. Perhaps China or even India has missed their opportunity to gain respect on the world stage.Every nation other than Russia and Ukraine is at best tangential, and at worst irrelevant.
As I see it, Ukraine's requirements for any kind of cease-fire (or more) would be, at a minimum, Russia's withdrawal to pre-invasion boundaries. I see no indication that's even close to being acceptable to Russia.
Russia apparently believes it can hold out against sanctions and attrition of military resources long enough to seize all of Luhansk, Donetsk, and a land corridor to Crimea. And, from other sources I've recently read, some in Russia believe they can reconstitute their forces enough to make another push at Kyiv.
While Ukraine's thinking, as I understand it, is that they can bend without breaking and, with Western support, continue to grind down Russia's ability to effectively wage war. And, on that front, there are things happening to encourage Ukraine. Putin has failed to call for national mobilization, perhaps fearing backlash or widespread disobedience or avoidance, and Russia has eliminated the upper age limit for military service. Those, and similar developments, indicate that Putin is having a hard time finding soldiers. And any who are recruited today will need to be trained for at least several months before achieving even minimal fighting proficiency.
So, that's a longish way of saying that neither side is anywhere close to believing they need to negotiate. When one side, or both, is sufficiently beaten up, then who the negotiator is, while important, won't be the primary issue.
Also, if I'm Ukrainian and someone tries to raise the issue of whether my country will be a healthy democracy after the war, I think I'd punch them in the mouth. That's because, in Maslow hierarchy-speak, I'm at the bottom of the pyramid, just trying to survive. Self-actualization as a democracy is a great goal, but that's a topic for another day.
I agree that there are a lot of geopolitical chips up in the air, and who knows where they'll fall. But, first things first, please help me and my family keep from being killed.
P.S. It's also important to factor in that the landscape with respect to sanctions and the battlefield is constantly changing. See my recent post about Ukraine acquiring MLRS systems from the US, and why that may have a significant impact. And the latest round of sanctions now includes Sberbank, which is the heavyweight of Russian banks. So, in boxing terms, past banking sanctions were like stiff jabs (painful but moderate damage), while this one is like a heavy body-blow with the potential for major damage.
https://www.19fortyfive.com/2022/05/putins-nightmare-a-ukrainian-guerrilla-movement-has-emerged/
Attacks of a guerrilla or resistance nature will make any occupation a dicey and dangerous affair. And, to the extent that military resources important to Russia are destroyed (ammo, fuel, railroads, etc.), that will have a direct effect on the battlefield. And even just keeping extra Russian troops tied to garrison duty is a positive for Ukraine.
Looks like he said North Korea when he meant to say South Korea. Big deal, is hardly worth the cap key. Many of Trump's gaffes and word salads are legendary, such as "oranges of the investigation" Ha Ha. But even that isn't worth the cap key or steering us off topic in a Kyiv discussion, even though Biden had enough going on between his ears to mop the floor with Trump in two debates.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qUPsNgmXR7MAt it back in 2020. No wonder he Won https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=MA8a2g6tTp0.
LOL, 2000 Mules.
At it back in 2020. No wonder he Won https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=MA8a2g6tTp0.
LOL, 2000 Mules.Too bad 60+ frivolous lawsuits were laughed out the door. LOL Better luck in 2024.
P.S. Best wishes on your English language studies.
2000 Mules.2000 mules debunked.
https://www.politifact.com/article/2022/may/04/faulty-premise-2000-mules-trailer-about-voting-mai/
Just another far right yawn, filed away with Hillary's emails, lock her up, Hunter's lap top, Bill Clinton's BJ, and Obama's birth certificate. But D'Souza, a convicted felon pardoned by Trump wanted some money from stupid people also. Why should Trump get it all?
No wonder he Won https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=MA8a2g6tTp0.Viral fake news, taken out of context and easily debunked.
https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2021/jan/12/greg-kelly/newsmax-host-recycles-out-context-clip-call-joe-bi/
The only country in the world who has fought wars since WWII is US. I don't have to mention where all they have waged war in the world, in the name of democracy, and how those countries are now.
If we see the histroy after WWII, we will know, there is always an understanding between these powers (US and Russia)! Even there are against each other. Irony!!
So in short, if US can start a war, they can stop a war too!!
Ukrainian president was supper confident of the support he is going to get from the west (especially US), check his speaches before the war.
Now he talks, west needs to do more! That is when we need to think! What went wrong!!
Remember, war brings money / economic growth!! In the expense of people of a country. In this case, its the Arms manufacture of US, with the money fo tax payers!!
When the congress passes a multibillion aid! For arm supply, its taxpayer money paid to the Arms manufacturs!
Check the share prices of US arms manufactures in last 3 months!!
Its important to stop the war, to save the people!! But who cares of the people!!
I'm sure there are plenty of ways to look at the situation, including views from 10,000 feet that focus on which players (countries and companies) might benefit from, or be taking advantage of, the conflict.
But it's hard for me to concern myself with such issues while Ukrainians are being killed, captured, tortured, and their cities reduced to uninhabitable rubble.
When confronted with that in-your-face reality, there are only a very few questions at the top level of priority:
Q: Who bears primary responsibility for the conflict?
A: Russia.
Q: Who is the only party with the ability to unilaterally bring an end to the conflict?
A: Russia.
Q: How can the conflict be stopped?
The only country in the world who has fought wars since WWII is US. I don't have to mention where all they have waged war in the world, in the name of democracy, and how those countries are now.
If we see the histroy after WWII, we will know, there is always an understanding between these powers (US and Russia)! Even there are against each other. Irony!!
So in short, if US can start a war, they can stop a war too!!
Ukrainian president was supper confident of the support he is going to get from the west (especially US), check his speaches before the war.
Now he talks, west needs to do more! That is when we need to think! What went wrong!!
Remember, war brings money / economic growth!! In the expense of people of a country. In this case, its the Arms manufacture of US, with the money fo tax payers!!
When the congress passes a multibillion aid! For arm supply, its taxpayer money paid to the Arms manufacturs!
Check the share prices of US arms manufactures in last 3 months!!.All you've done is ignore all of Jmsuttr's points and concerns while repeating the same assertions all over again, but this time tacking on double exclamation marks at the end of each sentence. And you earn a demerit by adding the ludicrous claim that the US has been the only country involved in war since WW II. We should expect better, even in a hooker forum. Why don't you go back and try again? Wink.
The only country in the world who has fought wars since WWII is US. I don't have to mention where all they have waged war in the world, in the name of democracy, and how those countries are now.
If we see the histroy after WWII, we will know, there is always an understanding between these powers (US and Russia)! Even there are against each other. Irony!!
So in short, if US can start a war, they can stop a war too!!
Ukrainian president was supper confident of the support he is going to get from the west (especially US), check his speaches before the war.http://www.internationalsexguide.nl/forum/showthread.php?4028-Stupid-Shit-in-Kyiv&p=2703784&viewfull=1#post2703784
If Russia doesn't want to stop fighting the war, the only way the US could make them stop would require the use of force by the US military, or NATO, or both.
That would a) Play into Putin's hands by allowing him to frame the conflict as existential, with Russia's nationhood at stake, and; b) Exponentially raise the risk that nuclear weapons could be used.
Also, you're mistaken as to a fundamental fact. Putin made the decision to invade Ukraine, not the US and not American arms manufacturers. It was Putin, and he alone, who started the war. And, since he started it, the war will continue until Putin, or his successor, gives the order to stop.
Any questions?
The only country in the world who has fought wars since WWII is US.I wonder what can possibly possess a grown-up to say something so monumentally stupid.
2000 mules debunked.
https://www.politifact.com/article/2022/may/04/faulty-premise-2000-mules-trailer-about-voting-mai/
Just another far right yawn, filed away with Hillary's emails, lock her up, Hunter's lap top, Bill Clinton's BJ, and Obama's birth certificate. But D'Souza, a convicted felon pardoned by Trump wanted some money from stupid people also. Why should Trump get it all?Yeah debunked with leftwing lies.
Same lies the pathetic democrats are trying to spin inflation is because of Putin.
Luckily hardly anyone believes this and the democrats are on their way out like a bunch of dogs.
At it back in 2020, No wonder he Won https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=MA8a2g6tTp0.
LOL, 2000 Mules.Fine talk about reducing emissions, LOL "he is supposed to be committed to reducing emissions – but when President Joe Biden produced a little natural gas of his own at the COP26 summit, it was audible enough to make the Duchess of Cornwall blush."
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10172959/Camilla-stopped-talking-hearing-President-break-wind-chat-Cop26-summit.html
The "Sleepy Joe" doze off https://news.sky.com/video/cop26-joe-biden-appears-to-fall-asleep-before-giving-a-speech-at-cop26-video-12457263.
Come 2024 he'll be Gone With The Wind.
From some news source: "Of course we want peace, but we also want our territories back," said Anna Ockmanko, 57, whose house in a small village outside of Kharkiv was destroyed when Russian forces invaded. "If not, then what are we suffering for?
Sad truth is that Ukrainians are suffering as punishment for their stupidity. Stupidity is not always punished in this world, but it usually is, and the punishment is typically severe, because that's the only way to get stupid people to learn. Same as teaching a stupid animal: since stupid animals can't / won't learn by logical reasoning, they have to be beaten silly with a stick until pain finally sinks in and forces them to learn.
Not the first to use following metaphor, but worth repeating over and over. If a robber points a gun at your stomach and says "give me all the money in your wallet", then you are very stupid not to comply, because certainly your life is with more than any amount of money. Yes, complying is cowardly surrender. And? Go back and read this metaphor over and over until you understand, because the alternative is what happens in the preceding paragraph: if you can't learn by reason, including via metaphors, then you will be probably be beaten silly with a stick, so to speak, to force you to learn.
From some news source: "Of course we want peace, but we also want our territories back," said Anna Ockmanko, 57, whose house in a small village outside of Kharkiv was destroyed when Russian forces invaded. "If not, then what are we suffering for?
Sad truth is that Ukrainians are suffering as punishment for their stupidity. Stupidity is not always punished in this world, but it usually is, and the punishment is typically severe, because that's the only way to get stupid people to learn. Same as teaching a stupid animal: since stupid animals can't / won't learn by logical reasoning, they have to be beaten silly with a stick until pain finally sinks in and forces them to learn.
Not the first to use following metaphor, but worth repeating over and over. If a robber points a gun at your stomach and says "give me all the money in your wallet", then you are very stupid not to comply, because certainly your life is with more than any amount of money. Yes, complying is cowardly surrender. And? Go back and read this metaphor over and over until you understand, because the alternative is what happens in the preceding paragraph: if you can't learn by reason, including via metaphors, then you will be probably be beaten silly with a stick, so to speak, to force you to learn.From the Ukrainian perspective, they're fighting for their very lives. It's irrelevant whether you, or anyone else, agrees with that assessment. That's how Ukrainians view the situation and that's why their response is what it is. Using your robber scenario, if you believe (or are sure) that the robber intends to kill you, then you'll resist in any way possible and with all your might. The truly stupid reaction would be to do anything else.
So, to anyone sitting in their comfy chair, observing from a safe distance and opining that Ukraine should be doing this or that, I'm guessing a clear and loud "go fuck yourself" would be the likely Ukrainian response.
Too bad 60+ frivolous lawsuits were laughed out the door. LOL Better luck in 2024.
P.S. Best wishes on your English language studies.Based on the swing counties I know. I believe Biden won the election. However, I am also distressed by how lax the Democrats want to make voting standards going forward. I have no problem with moving voting to Sundays, but I have a lot of problems with recent trends towards mail-in voting, unmanned voting boxes and vote harvesting efforts.
You would have to be naive to think that there is a lack of election integrity in some Democratic and Republican cities and counties in the United States. The money in our government is too big for unethical behavior not to follow. The "there's no evidence" line is a cop out. Most people know that you can't detect most voter fraud. And yet, people on both sides have still been convicted over the years.
The Courts really don't want to intervene. They want state and local jurisdictions to get their shit together and keep it that way. Just my two cents.
Yeah debunked with leftwing lies.Yep Bill, like your cohorts you just cry "fake news" and never read the article, nice and easy and requires little brain power. Here's you're guy. See attachment. His his criminality and history of spreading false information is well documented, as is the flawed methodologies, non-sequiturs, and omissions in "2000 Mules." Better luck in 2024. Wink.
https://www.reuters.com/article/factcheck-usa-mules/fact-check-does-2000-mules-provide-evidence-of-voter-fraud-in-the-2020-u-s-presidential-election-idUSL2N2XJ0OQ
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