View Full Version : Colombia / Travel Coronavirus Updates
YippieKayay
04-04-20, 01:09
If that's true, then lock downs don't appear to work. Lock downs are working in Canada. You need to be early. You can't wait until it starts to spread through the community to enact a shutdown.
The reason they aren't as effective in the US is largely because:
(1) They were done too late.
(2) A lot of Americans simply don't abide by the rules. They don't believe what they're being told.
Too late. This virus is patient. Much more so than us.
Agreed, however the Governors of Georgia and Florida should of acted sooner and I put them in the party affiliation dumpster.
Regardless, it's sad.Florida is the third most populace state and second most visited by foreigners. It is sixth in the number of infections and number of deaths. As for number of infections and deaths in the top ten, only California and Pennsylvania have less per capita than Florida. Using statistics, Florida is doing better than many Democratic governors.
I agree it's a sad situation, too many deaths, but we need to act towards the future. We can learn from the past, but can't change it.
Florida is the third most populace state and second most visited by foreigners. It is sixth in the number of infections and number of deaths. As for number of infections and deaths in the top ten, only California and Pennsylvania have less per capita than Florida. Using statistics, Florida is doing better than many Democratic governors.
I agree it's a sad situation, too many deaths, but we need to act towards the future. We can learn from the past, but can't change it.Sorry I cannot agree that the governor of Florida is doing better than many Democratic governors, and as far at the governor of Georgia, are you of the opinion that he as well is doing better than many Democratic Governors?
Lock downs are working in Canada. You need to be early. You can't wait until it starts to spread through the community to enact a shutdown.
The reason they aren't as effective in the US is largely because:
(1) They were done too late.
(2) A lot of Americans simply don't abide by the rules. They don't believe what they're being told.
Too late. This virus is patient. Much more so than us.LOL, Canadians abide by all the rules, And believe everything Trudow says, BTW he is a big liar. Canada has exponential growth (10,000 cases since the 20th) and will most likely be shit show in 2 weeks. Hope I'm wrong about that. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/canada/.
Rebel News has good videos from your airports on YouTube.
The US is in the same boat as the rest of the world. The final numbers are not in from anywhere. Tell me the fallacy of comparing current numbers from the US to current numbers from all other countries. The US was in the first wave of countries to get the virus (after China), about the same time as some other countries, and earlier than many countries. The first detected case in the US was nine days before the first detected case in Italy.
Remember, your statement "Many other countries handled it differently, a lot better. Actually, most other countries. " I am still looking for most countries that handled it better.
I don't want to be augmentative, just trying to understand your train of thought.The rate of increase was the fastest in the US of almost any country. From the time there were 100 cases to the present the US wins the race. Look for the dates when the number of cases reached 100, and compare at 10 or 20 day intervals.
The rate of increase was the fastest in the US of almost any country. From the time there were 100 cases to the present the US wins the race. Look for the dates when the number of cases reached 100, and compare at 10 or 20 day intervals.Umm, correlate 'rate of increase' with rate of testing, maybe?
The US is in the same boat as the rest of the world. The final numbers are not in from anywhere. Tell me the fallacy of comparing current numbers from the US to current numbers from all other countries. The US was in the first wave of countries to get the virus (after China), about the same time as some other countries, and earlier than many countries. The first detected case in the US was nine days before the first detected case in Italy.
Remember, your statement "Many other countries handled it differently, a lot better. Actually, most other countries. " I am still looking for most countries that handled it better.
I don't want to be augmentative, just trying to understand your train of thought.Looking at the numbers for the number of cases around 30 days after the cases hit 100. This is important because the time it took to get to the first 100 varied a lot based on random factors. But once cases hit 100 the increases become more regular. The numbers (taken off a graph, so not exact) for countries I found were as follows:
US 245,000.
Spain - 112,000.
Germany, China, and Italy were all around 70-75,000.
France - 50,000.
UK. Not at 30 days yet, but at 33,000.
South Korea - 9,600.
Those are all countries with early outbreaks, but comparing them at 30 days after the cases hit 100 gives a good idea of how fast the cases are growing. Incidentally South Koreas stopped at around 9600.
Mojo Bandit
04-04-20, 04:52
I was just talking to a woman that works as representative for a factory in Guangzhou China, we were talking about an order I made but she steered the conversation to the virus being so bad in the USA, knowing that the central problem in China was in Wuhan 500 miles from Guangzhou. She said that when world got out about the virus that they only had a few cases in Guangzhou (there is 14 million in Guangzhou city limits but 56 million in that metro area) but that everyone stayed home for one month and then when they did come out everyone was wearing masks and still are wearing masks. An all their cases are recovered. I have now ideal where she gets her info about how many cases etc, how many recovered but for sure they were on lockdown for a month in her city and then they still wear masks outside their homes.
Elvis 2008
04-04-20, 05:04
It boils down to politics mostly, if you look at the red states versus the blue states, and the politicians in charge, generally the blue states, such as California, instigated lock down measures sooner than the red states.
No, the whole notion of Democrats good, Republicans bad or vice versa is laughable.
Washington state is run by a Democrat governor. Health officials there bucked the CDC and tested individuals on their own and decided that Covid-19 was not just due to people who traveled to China but was organically being spread in the community. They get an absolute 10 in terms of management.
IMO Trump gets a 2 out of 10 on his handling of the crisis. He didn't manage the CDC and FDA and take things seriously at first. He seemed to be going based on what he wanted to have happen versus what happened. When the virus exploded, he proclaimed nothing like this has happened before after being warned that it might. He trusted the Chinese president the virus was contained when it was not. There was also his administration's failure to identify domestic Covid spread at a much later time than Washington state officials did. Probably the only thing that Trump did right was to halt air traffic to and from China early on.
The 1 out of 10 goes to New York and Louisiana. The pathetic mayor of New Orleans, a Democrat, let Mardi Gras go on, blamed Trump, and ignored WHO. NYC had a parade through China town and the leadership there proclaimed that anyone against the parade was racist. Chuck Schumer said banning flights from China was racist. The NYC's top public health official told people to continue riding the subways insisting that there was no danger from Covid, and the NYC mayor told NYC citizens to keep eating out at restaurants on the same day the NBA stopped its season. It is no wonder then that Louisiana and NYC are getting decimated by Covid.
With two exceptions, I don't recall much else being either spectacularly bad or good.
The two states that get a -5 are Michigan and Nevada. Preliminary data on hydroxychlorquine and azithromycin were promising. Trump brought up this study and that combination as mentioned by Woodman here was to call that combination of drugs, Trump pills. To me, a decision to use these medications should be left between a patient and doctor. Nevada and Michigan severely restricted use of these possibly life saving medications and implied that they were going to go after doctors who used them.
The governor in Michigan had a feud with Trump and maybe this is Fox News bias but it sure seems to me like this governor showed her incompetence when she asked, "Uh, you know those pills that I said Michigan doctors shouldn't prescribe because they were unproven. Uh, hey, President Trump, can you give me some of them please? I kind of need them for people dying here. ": https://www.foxnews.com/politics/michigan-reverses-course-on-trump-touted-coronavirus-drugs.
I was just talking to a woman that works as representative for a factory in Guangzhou China, we were talking about an order I made but she steered the conversation to the virus being so bad in the USA, knowing that the central problem in China was in Wuhan 500 miles from Guangzhou. She said that when world got out about the virus that they only had a few cases in Guangzhou (there is 14 million in Guangzhou city limits but 56 million in that metro area) but that everyone stayed home for one month and then when they did come out everyone was wearing masks and still are wearing masks. An all their cases are recovered. I have now ideal where she gets her info about how many cases etc, how many recovered but for sure they were on lockdown for a month in her city and then they still wear masks outside their homes.The lockdown in China is stricter than what we are in now. I was talking to a friend by phone a week ago. He said he could not leave his apartment on the 5th floor to another apartment on the 4th floor in the same building. If someone is tested with virus, the infected person is moved to an isolated place and can't have visitor. They are doing it like running a program.
For person in population
__If test (person).
_____Isolate_at_hospital (person)
__Else
_____Isolate_at_home (person)
Elvis 2008
04-04-20, 05:13
I've heard various things about the climate factor. Guayaquil and the surrounding region has a much warmer tropical climate compared to Quito and Cuenca. Is that why the virus hotspot is there?The theory is that hot and humid places have less transmission, and Guayquil is both hot and humid. That is why it is an outlier IMO.
Elvis 2008
04-04-20, 05:28
The rate of increase was the fastest in the US of almost any country. From the time there were 100 cases to the present the US wins the race. Look for the dates when the number of cases reached 100, and compare at 10 or 20 day intervals.Zeos1, I just got told by one of my chicas that a clinic in Medellin was told to not report positive Corona cases. I read a report the death rate in China was 10 to 20 X what was reported. A German infections disease specialist urged German politicians to not include Corona cases if patients tested + but were not ill. If you look at South Korea, a nation almost everyone says did everything right, there was aggressive testing but a huge percentage of positive patients were in their 20's where death rates are very low.
There is no doubt that the number of reported cases in the USA Is the highest, but I would be careful in that the Chinese may not have reported all that they had or tested all the people suffering from symptoms. As for the rate of increase, percentage wise, in the US being the highest, I do not see that at all. The percentage increase in the ramp up or exponential rise of cases is pretty much a pattern I have seen in most countries.
The USA Has the greatest number of reported cases, but we are the third most populated country in the world. China is #1 in population and India is #2, and India so far has not been hit that hard. Even if they were, I wonder how much testing that they could do.
Elvis 2008
04-04-20, 05:42
I thought we'd already been over these things.Well, just like scientists supposedly agreed upon global warming, I guess we should just concede and kill ourselves.
24,000 flu deaths out of 38-54 million cases.
5,000 coronavirus deaths out of 200,000 cases. Assuming we hit 1 million known cases in the US, number of coronavirus deaths will surpass flu deaths. If we matched the number of flu cases, coronavirus would cause nearly 40 times as many deaths. All based on currently available data.Again, this is actually less than "the expert consensus" which is now at 100,000 to 240,000 deaths. When you are at 200,000 and people just assume we are going to get to one million, IMO, which goes against "expert consensus", that is a pretty big assumption. So is the assumption that we are at 5000 dead now and hitting 25,000. When I see such extreme "expert consensus" , I will always look for evidence to go against those assumptions.
The reason is this is Malthusian thinking, and that man will not try to improve his standing. Malthusian thinking is very popular but it is almost always wrong. If Malthus was right, we would all be starving right now. When exactly did climate scientists say we were all going to die because of global warming again?
87% of new Tuberculosis cases occur in 8 countries: India, China, Indonesia, the Philippines, Pakistan, Nigeria, Bangladesh and South Africa. The US only has around 9,000 cases of Tuberculosis per year and that number has dropped every year since 1992.
I guess when people die or get sick in those countries it does not matter then? We are on the INTERNATIONAL sex guide here right?
And, what I learned from the past is our Federal response to this crisis has been a total S%%T Sandwich! Now we have Jared Kushner fielding questions from reporters. That can't be a good sign. Time for everyone to put together a "Bugout" bag because shit's going to get weird. Adios!
Florida is the third most populace state and second most visited by foreigners. It is sixth in the number of infections and number of deaths. As for number of infections and deaths in the top ten, only California and Pennsylvania have less per capita than Florida. Using statistics, Florida is doing better than many Democratic governors.
I agree it's a sad situation, too many deaths, but we need to act towards the future. We can learn from the past, but can't change it.
Sorry I cannot agree that the governor of Florida is doing better than many Democratic governors, and as far at the governor of Georgia, are you of the opinion that he as well is doing better than many Democratic Governors?You can believe whatever you want, but I am using actual stats, not opinions. I have not mentioned the governor of Georgia, and only mentioned the state of Georgia one time. That was in reference to the number of deaths, and not complimentary. Why haven't you mentioned the governors of Michigan, Massachusetts, Louisiana, Illinois, and Connecticut? The Florida governor is statistically doing better than any of them. I won't even include New York and New Jersey in that list because they are an aberration. In my opinion, the mayor of New York City holds primary blame for those two states. Friday, Mayor de Blasio hinted that he may not want help from Samaritan's Purse, who has set up hospital tents in Central Park, and using their own medical staff and supplies. The reason, they are evangelical Christians. So his religious, or non-religious, beliefs come before the health of the citizens of NYC.
Bango Cheito
04-04-20, 07:45
I've been living in Colombia on and off for the past 15 years, mostly in Bogota. I'm here now. I'm glad to be here. I can't think of a better place to wait this out.
I actually really feel sorry for people in North America and Europe when I look at the numbers.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
LOL, Canadians abide by all the rules, And believe everything Trudow says, BTW he is a big liar. Canada has exponential growth (10,000 cases since the 20th) and will most likely be shit show in 2 weeks. Hope I'm wrong about that. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/canada/.
Rebel News has good videos from your airports on YouTube.Canadians seem to be taking things more seriously. Friday, at 5:45 pm I got on the 401 westbound from Mississauga. Typically, at that time on Friday, I'd be stop and go for nearly 2 hours, before traffic starts to thin out around Cambridge (about 40 miles). Today I made the distance in 35 minutes. Friday morning on my way in at 7:30 I barely had to slow down. I'd say traffic is down about 65%.
Well, just like scientists supposedly agreed upon global warming, I guess we should just concede and kill ourselves.Can you fill me in on why you want to discuss global warming? At least use the correct label, "anthropogenically induced climate change. " If you want to discuss it, go ahead and draw up a heat balance for our environment. You'll need it to follow the discussion.
Again, this is actually less than "the expert consensus" which is now at 100,000 to 240,000 deaths. When you are at 200,000 and people just assume we are going to get to one million, IMO, which goes against "expert consensus", that is a pretty big assumption. So is the assumption that we are at 5000 dead now and hitting 25,000. When I see such extreme "expert consensus" , I will always look for evidence to go against those assumptions.How can a successful investor not understand basic math?
Current evidence suggests this virus spreads twice as easily as the flu. Current evidence indicates it is more likely to result in hospitalization and death than the flu. Using total number of flu deaths is useless for comparison, unless you also compare total number of cases.
Would you compare the quarterly earnings of 2 stocks, without also including company value? Two companies report $5 million in 1st quarter earnings. One company is valued at $100 million, the other at $3 billion. Are you trying to tell us, the $3 billion company is doing better, because more people know the name? That's exactly what you're saying when trying to compare the flu with coronavirus.
The reason is this is Malthusian thinking, and that man will not try to improve his standing. Malthusian thinking is very popular but it is almost always wrong. If Malthus was right, we would all be starving right now. When exactly did climate scientists say we were all going to die because of global warming again? They didn't. Ever. They never will.
Perhaps a brief introduction to science is needed.
Science is merely a set of tools used to attempt to understand the world around us, much as investors use a set of tools to determine the present and future value of an investment. Clearly some use the tools better than others.
Scientists recognize that their toolkit is imperfect. Everything is a work in progress. The goal is not to learn everything. The goal is to learn more. Learning everything assumes knowledge is finite. It isn't. So scientists learn to improve their tools, learn to better apply available data and constantly refine the current library of knowledge.
Science first recognized the possibility that mankind was capable of altering the climate over 100 years ago. H. G. Wells touched on the subject in 1933 in "The Shape of Things to Come. " Fifty years ago, the general consensus was that mankind would alter the climate, and since then the debate has been over how much and how quickly this would happen.
Now we have access to many years of global data. The data shows the climate has changed. The data shows the global climate is warming. The data shows the rate is increasing. Many like to suggest this is part of the natural climate cycle. If that's true, not just mankind, but the entire planet is doomed. I'll explain.
Roughly, the natural climate cycle is around 40,000 years. The last ice age ended 20,000 years ago. The climate cycle is a sine wave. It can only be a sine wave. There are 4 sections of the natural climate change sine wave. First, the temperature is rising at a steady rate, then the rate of temperature rise drops until it reaches 0. Next phase, temperature drops and the rate of drop increases until it reaches maximum. Third phase, rate of temperature drop decreases until it hits 0. Final leg, temperature begins to increase and rate of increase rises, until max is reached. Each of these takes 10,000 years.
We should be at the peak, when temperatures start to drop, with an increasing rate. Instead temperatures are rising with an increasing rate. That means, in the natural climate cycle, we are just past the peak of an ice age. We have, if it's just natural, 20,000 years of increasing temperatures, and nearly 10,000 years of an increasing rate of increase. Currently, we're at 1° every 25 years. Even if that rate only doubles before peak increase is reached, that means naturally, global temperatures will increase by 1600° over the next 20,000 years. Which is of course ridiculous. Which means removing mankind from the climate equation doesn't work.
Now, if you can get past climate change, we'll move on to your blind spot.
We can't base today's actions on possible future events. When forest fires are burning, do we stop fighting them because we know it will eventually rain? If someone is bleeding profusely do you just wait around because eventually an ambulance will show up? In a casualty situation you take actions based upon what is happening right now, not based upon what the future will surely bring. You make projections based upon what is currently known, not on your hope of future knowledge.
I guess when people die or get sick in those countries it does not matter then? We are on the INTERNATIONAL sex guide here right?When you're trying to compare two diseases in relation to the US and one of those diseases has already been almost eradicated from the US, yes, it doesn't matter how that disease affects other countries.
Why not bring up US malaria cases? Discussing Tuberculosis is a false equivalency.
YippieKayay
04-04-20, 12:30
I've been living in Colombia on and off for the past 15 years, mostly in Bogota. I'm here now. I'm glad to be here. I can't think of a better place to wait this out.
I actually really feel sorry for people in North America and Europe when I look at the numbers.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/Those are confirmed cases. You think everyone in Bogota is getting tested? The Colombian government is doing its best but I doubt their numbers are accurate. Latin America will become a shit show in about a month. They will likely suffer far worse than Europe.
You can believe whatever you want, but I am using actual stats, not opinions. I have not mentioned the governor of Georgia, and only mentioned the state of Georgia one time. That was in reference to the number of deaths, and not complimentary. Why haven't you mentioned the governors of Michigan, Massachusetts, Louisiana, Illinois, and Connecticut? The Florida governor is statistically doing better than any of them. I won't even include New York and New Jersey in that list because they are an aberration. In my opinion, the mayor of New York City holds primary blame for those two states. Friday, Mayor de Blasio hinted that he may not want help from Samaritan's Purse, who has set up hospital tents in Central Park, and using their own medical staff and supplies. The reason, they are evangelical Christians. So his religious, or non-religious, beliefs come before the health of the citizens of NYC.Trying to compare blue vs red states or New York versus Florida is all useless and misses the point. Each area is at a different point in the epidemic, but the percentage increases are actually similar and there are no signs of big improvements anywhere except possibly the initially hard hit areas of Washington State and California. But they are not out of the woods yet by any means.
I think the big problem is / was the unwillingness to do anything about the oncoming train. You're in a rail tunnel. You see the big light, and somehow you think you're going to be okay because, well, dammit, this is the USA. We have the greatest healthcare in the world, etc. Etc. And the leader in chief who changed his story so many times that it makes your head spin.
Anyway. As far as Colombia, I wish them the best. I fear the worst. But hope for the best.
If you do a good job at testing as the US has done all the lefty dickHeads say what a lousy country the US is. Actually it shall bear out that there is a shitload of unreported cases in all countries and the hammer is coming down in next 2 weeks with apocalyptic scenes. The US is one of the countries that shall have this under control first, wait and see.
Patient 0 was a Researcher at Wuhan Institute of Virology. Case Closed. China Guilty of Negligent Homicide, 62,000 counts and growing.
Those are confirmed cases. You think everyone in Bogota is getting tested? The Colombian government is doing its best but I doubt their numbers are accurate. Latin America will become a shit show in about a month. They will likely suffer far worse than Europe.You make some interesting points. Yes, you are right the people in South America are probably tested to a much smaller extent than the US or Europe so there may indeed be more asymptomatic people out there. But there are big time mitigating factors. The average age in South America is much younger than in the US or Europe. So what? The fatality rates seem to be much higher among older patients. The population in South America is much healthier than the US and Europe. I attribute this to better eating habits and more exercise. Just as an example the obesity rate in the US is 36% (1 in 3! And none of the South American countries are close. The current statistics suggest that people with "chronic conditions" (I. E. Heart disease, diabetes, cancer etc) are more at risk. So, yes, I do think that the South American cases will grow and there will be a large toll but will that be as high as the US and Europe? I doubt it and after taking into account that the US and Europe have far greater medical resources.
You can believe whatever you want, but I am using actual stats, not opinions. I have not mentioned the governor of Georgia, and only mentioned the state of Georgia one time. That was in reference to the number of deaths, and not complimentary. Why haven't you mentioned the governors of Michigan, Massachusetts, Louisiana, Illinois, and Connecticut? The Florida governor is statistically doing better than any of them. I won't even include New York and New Jersey in that list because they are an aberration. In my opinion, the mayor of New York City holds primary blame for those two states. Friday, Mayor de Blasio hinted that he may not want help from Samaritan's Purse, who has set up hospital tents in Central Park, and using their own medical staff and supplies. The reason, they are evangelical Christians. So his religious, or non-religious, beliefs come before the health of the citizens of NYC.The truth be told, I am just exasperated by this whole thing while sitting at home.
I live in California, and watching what's happening in our Country right now is hard to stomach and it's as though we have 50 different Countries within the USA, and almost 50 different approaches to what's going on, versus other Countries that seem to have more of a unified approach.
And lots of different numbers, opinions, and thoughts as to how things are being handled.
I only hope a vaccine is developed rapidly as this is the only thing I see that will put an end to all of this.
We'll be OK here.
Trying to compare blue vs red states or New York versus Florida is all useless and misses the point. Each area is at a different point in the epidemic, but the percentage increases are actually similar and there are no signs of big improvements anywhere except possibly the initially hard hit areas of Washington State and California. But they are not out of the woods yet by any means.
I think the big problem is / was the unwillingness to do anything about the oncoming train. You're in a rail tunnel. You see the big light, and somehow you think you're going to be okay because, well, dammit, this is the USA. We have the greatest healthcare in the world, etc. Etc. And the leader in chief who changed his story so many times that it makes your head spin.
Anyway. As far as Colombia, I wish them the best. I fear the worst. But hope for the best.
Mojo Bandit
04-04-20, 19:28
Lock downs are working in Canada. You need to be early. You can't wait until it starts to spread through the community to enact a shutdown.
The reason they aren't as effective in the US is largely because:
(1) They were done too late.
(2) A lot of Americans simply don't abide by the rules. They don't believe what they're being told.
Too late. This virus is patient. Much more so than us.Canada handled it in a very scientific / common sense way. Test and trace contacts of people who tested positive. As a result the whole country currently has roughly the same number of cases as the state of Michigan.
So I wonder what is store in the future to enter a Country, besides being quarantined, I envision when they develop a vaccine which can be certified, like the Yellow Fever Certificate you would think this would allow for entry into a Country, but what about people who have had the virus, would they perhaps be allowed in with proof based an antibody test which I believe is available now?
YippieKayay
04-04-20, 22:26
So I wonder what is store in the future to enter a Country, besides being quarantined, I envision when they develop a vaccine which can be certified, like the Yellow Fever Certificate you would think this would allow for entry into a Country, but what about people who have had the virus, would they perhaps be allowed in with proof based an antibody test which I believe is available now?Have you ever had the flu shot? Did you do it every year? Was it always effective?
There is going to be a second and maybe third wave of SARS-COV-2. 60-70% of the world's population will be infected each time. These lock downs are only meant to slow the spread so hospitals can manage the critical cases. Most of the people you know will be infected. Let that sink in for a moment. You will likely be infected at some point.
There will be no certification or effective vaccine. There are already 8 strains of this virus going around.
The future is countries will be ready to deal with the critical cases, or they won't be. This isn't the first time we will see shelter in place orders.
ChuchoLoco
04-04-20, 23:06
Have you ever had the flu shot? Did you do it every year? Was it always effective?
There is going to be a second and maybe third wave of SARS-COV-2. 60-70% of the world's population will be infected each time. These lock downs are only meant to slow the spread so hospitals can manage the critical cases. Most of the people you know will be infected. Let that sink in for a moment. You will likely be infected at some point.
There will be no certification or effective vaccine. There are already 8 strains of this virus going around.
The future is countries will be ready to deal with the critical cases, or they won't be. This isn't the first time we will see shelter in place orders.We have begun living in a scary new world. We can only hope that the scientists and medical specialist can come up with an anti virus like they did with HIV but much faster. This thing transmits too easily. You are so right YippieK, vaccines have a throw the dice effectiveness. Right now the best we can do is isolate ourselves and slow down the transmission. I was amazed to see that even the president now admits that there will be a lot of deaths in the next few weeks. Now I'm really scared. He knows more than we do and usually doesn't give such bad news or admit how bad things are.
Have you ever had the flu shot? Did you do it every year? Was it always effective?
There is going to be a second and maybe third wave of SARS-COV-2. 60-70% of the world's population will be infected each time. These lock downs are only meant to slow the spread so hospitals can manage the critical cases. Most of the people you know will be infected. Let that sink in for a moment. You will likely be infected at some point.
There will be no certification or effective vaccine. There are already 8 strains of this virus going around.
The future is countries will be ready to deal with the critical cases, or they won't be. This isn't the first time we will see shelter in place orders.Well I've had the flu shot every year and started doing so about 8 years ago when I didn't and got the flu, and since then I haven't caught the flu.
I hope you are dead wrong about there being no certification or effective vaccine for the virus and am sure you feel the same way as well, but time will tell and maybe it will boil down to a miracle treatment, only time will tell.
So getting back to my original question, if there is no effective vaccine, etc. Then does that mean all visitors to a Country will have to be quarantined when arriving in your opinion. And if so, I guess that will put a damper on foreign tourism to Countries, and mongering.
The thought of this is mind boggling.
And, what I learned from the past is our Federal response to this crisis has been a total S%%T Sandwich! Now we have Jared Kushner fielding questions from reporters. That can't be a good sign. Time for everyone to put together a "Bugout" bag because shit's going to get weird. Adios!New York, New Jersey, DC and California are red states?
Today President Duque announced that "next week will decide whether or not the quarantine continues". This after he confirmed last night that those 70 and older will be under quarantine until May 30. There are 85 recovered today and a little more than 1400 confirmed cases and 62 deaths. We should be in triple digit recovered cases by next week.
You make some interesting points. Yes, you are right the people in South America are probably tested to a much smaller extent than the US or Europe so there may indeed be more asymptomatic people out there. But there are big time mitigating factors. The average age in South America is much younger than in the US or Europe. So what? The fatality rates seem to be much higher among older patients. The population in South America is much healthier than the US and Europe. I attribute this to better eating habits and more exercise. Just as an example the obesity rate in the US is 36% (1 in 3! And none of the South American countries are close. The current statistics suggest that people with "chronic conditions" (I. E. Heart disease, diabetes, cancer etc) are more at risk. So, yes, I do think that the South American cases will grow and there will be a large toll but will that be as high as the US and Europe? I doubt it and after taking into account that the US and Europe have far greater medical resources.I agree with your observations. I have read that the average age of those who have died in Italy is over 70. The obesity in the US is staggering. Way too many couch potatoes eating fast food. I've never been to Europe, but looking at the visitors to Florida from the UK, it is just as bad there.
New York, New Jersey, DC and California are red states?You must not be from the USA, California is one of the most liberal states, blue, in the Country.
Reference to where the spike of new cases will most likely occur in the upcoming weeks as they are the remaining States to issue a shelter in place order. This may be a good thing as those States may be spiking in cases, others will be dropping, we'll be able to shift resources. Essentially, what we're doing is a delayed "Herd" approach where we all eventually get it.
Not sure if this is a good idea or not? Since our healthcare workers are at a greater risk of getting this virus due to constant exposure and limited PPE, why not have them stay at these empty Hotel buildings instead of going to home and endangering their family?
Can't wait til we can put this behind us, grab a beer together, and have hot Colombians shaking their big asses in front us!
New York, New Jersey, DC and California are red states?
YippieKayay
04-05-20, 06:13
So getting back to my original question, if there is no effective vaccine, etc. Then does that mean all visitors to a Country will have to be quarantined when arriving in your opinion. And if so, I guess that will put a damper on foreign tourism to Countries, and mongering.
The thought of this is mind boggling.It will truly end when we have herd immunity and the virus can't hop between hosts. The pandemic of 1918 came in three waves, 1918, then a really deadly one in 1919, and finally 1920. The only place in the world that wasn't touched is American Samoa. The governor of American Samoa closed the port and setup patrols on the shores to keep any ship from docking for two years.
There's no miracle cure. We might get a vaccine but if the virus keeps mutating enough then it won't help much.
More opinion. I continue to work through this, which forces me into the public, just trying to keep myself fed. That's turned into it's own struggle. Many places have closed their restaurants, including fast food, or shortened their hours.
Many people in the US aren't taking this seriously. Most of the cars I see on the road obviously aren't out on essential business. You don't take the whole family out, with the dog, to buy Charmin vat 10 pm. The fast food restaurants I'm stuck getting food from, the employees are often not taking any extra precautions.
Worst are the other customers. Every day, even with my best efforts to maintain my distance, someone will come closer than I'm comfortable with, even without the virus out there. There's 5 empty urinals, I took the one farthest away for a reason. Why are you taking the one next to me? There's enough room for you to stay 10 feet away from me, why do I need to hug the wall to avoid being bumped by you?
Now the CDC is recommending masks on everyone. A good idea. However, and too bad if you think this is too political, the way the President announced it seemed to strongly suggest wearing masks isn't important. If he doesn't want to wear a mask, fine. Tell the world, "I won't be wearing a mask to make sure more masks are available for the doctors in the White House. " Don't stand up there and repeatedly stress it's optional.
I'm expecting widespread curfews soon, although only coming on the local level. I don't think we're close to hitting a plateau yet. That won't happen until 2 or 3 weeks after the administration stands up and clearly says "Stay the fuck at home."
On a personal note, the disease has hit too close to home. Someone very close to me is currently in ICU on a ventilator, and it's someone in a high risk group. They've been tested, but the family has been told results won't be back until mid-week. If the test is positive, a bunch of high risk people have also been exposed, and been in contact with a lot of people who haven't been taking precautions. Several small towns, which believed this was a city problem, could be about to have a rude awakening.
The next week should tell us whether or not Colombia has kept ahead of things. I'm hoping for the best, but not yet optimistic.
Stay safe, stay healthy and stay the fuck at home.
Dcrist0527
04-05-20, 15:46
It will truly end when we have herd immunity and the virus can't hop between hosts. The pandemic of 1918 came in three waves, 1918, then a really deadly one in 1919, and finally 1920. The only place in the world that wasn't touched is American Samoa. The governor of American Samoa closed the port and setup patrols on the shores to keep any ship from docking for two years.
There's no miracle cure. We might get a vaccine but if the virus keeps mutating enough then it won't help much.I agree with everything you say. Our flu vaccine is only modestly effective. I do not know if I believe this or not, but I have read Covid's mutations are not nearly as dramatic as the common flu, making a vaccine perhaps a bit more effective. But your point is well taken. And while I understand the logic of the worldwide quarantine was to buy some time for hospitals and for a vaccine, I fear it's only delayed the inevitable.
Dcrist0527
04-05-20, 15:57
Today President Duque announced that "next week will decide whether or not the quarantine continues". This after he confirmed last night that those 70 and older will be under quarantine until May 30. There are 85 recovered today and a little more than 1400 confirmed cases and 62 deaths. We should be in triple digit recovered cases by next week.I read his statement and I'm still not sure I understand what intelligent isolation means. It sounds like he is laying the groundwork for quarantining only the elderly. I think that is an interesting idea. Perhaps that is a starting ground for getting the economy going while still protecting the most vulnerable.
Dcrist0527
04-05-20, 16:10
Well I've had the flu shot every year and started doing so about 8 years ago when I didn't and got the flu, and since then I haven't caught the flu.
I hope you are dead wrong about there being no certification or effective vaccine for the virus and am sure you feel the same way as well, but time will tell and maybe it will boil down to a miracle treatment, only time will tell.
So getting back to my original question, if there is no effective vaccine, etc. Then does that mean all visitors to a Country will have to be quarantined when arriving in your opinion. And if so, I guess that will put a damper on foreign tourism to Countries, and mongering.
The thought of this is mind boggling.It's an interesting topic. I am reminded that things are never as dismal as they seem in the moment. Personally, I think we are nearing a breaking point. And I mean this globally. If economies stay shuttered much longer, the economic devastation will be unprecedented. Out best case scenario is a somewhat effective vaccine. That is, at a minimum, 9 months away, if ever. Most governments will not and cannot wait for that. More to your point, countries that rely heavily on tourism have a terrible predicament. A 14-day quarantine for all visitors would be a non-starter for tourists. Perhaps an effective, quick result test is an alternative, albeit terribly expensive and impractical.
In the end, what I believe, is that countries will do what it takes to survive and that is open its borders. I don't say that critically though. There is a balance. There is a point of no return. Particularly for countries more reliant on tourism, are you willing to accept more than half of your population unemployed? Sadly, even if they opened the borders today, the recovery will take several years.
It will truly end when we have herd immunity and the virus can't hop between hosts. The pandemic of 1918 came in three waves, 1918, then a really deadly one in 1919, and finally 1920. The only place in the world that wasn't touched is American Samoa. The governor of American Samoa closed the port and setup patrols on the shores to keep any ship from docking for two years.
There's no miracle cure. We might get a vaccine but if the virus keeps mutating enough then it won't help much.I still go back to my original question. When do you think we will be able to return to Colombia, and under what conditions.
I have faith that this time around, versus the Pandemic of 1918, that we will be better able to handle it somehow.
I'm keeping my fingers crossed!
I think you got it right. There are other infectious diseases (ebola, SARS, STDs, turberculosis etc.) that did not cast the world back to the Middle Ages. The world adapts and life goes on, as hard as that might be to remember that just now. Ebola for example is still around and just as deadly as ever. It's different than coronavirus because the symptoms are clear and severe 100% of the time. It's also different because it's much more deadly. Although it is concentrated in certain parts of Africa, no quarantines or travel restrictions have been in place for those areas since the outbreaks were contained in 2014/2015.
Have you ever had the flu shot? Did you do it every year? Was it always effective?
There is going to be a second and maybe third wave of SARS-COV-2. 60-70% of the world's population will be infected each time. These lock downs are only meant to slow the spread so hospitals can manage the critical cases. Most of the people you know will be infected. Let that sink in for a moment. You will likely be infected at some point.
There will be no certification or effective vaccine. There are already 8 strains of this virus going around.
The future is countries will be ready to deal with the critical cases, or they won't be. This isn't the first time we will see shelter in place orders.
That is a fair point. More importantly, this is not really about politics. I truly believe that discussing it in political terms is somewhere between unproductive and damaging. It is a public health issue that could unite the world for a common goal unless, again, it is addressed in political terms.
New York, New Jersey, DC and California are red states?
"Intelligent isolation" simply means isolation based on known risk factors and essential necessity for contact. In other words, it would allow people to go about their lives without fear of 936,000 fines. Including continued mandatory quarantine of the 70+ population and schools remaining closed, the big change would be businesses other than pharmacies and supermarkets would be allowed to reopen and restaurants and bars could accept on site customers.
If you live with elderly people it would not be intelligent to be out and about and then come home to hug them. Personal hygiene practices are known to prevent the virus spread so that would be something to emphasize for people who come home from work and have contact with vulnerable people.
President Duque indicated the decision would be based on statistics of early next week. As of last night the results are promising. As of this morning we see preliminary signs of a turnaround in Europe and of course over the past week Asia has seen decreasing numbers. As this is Semana Santa, there will be much less than normal activity out on the streets.
I am very disappointed with Claudia Lopez, the mayor of Bogota. Over the past two weeks she has engaged in a pissing contest with the President for apparently political and self promotion reasons. Her most recent controversy creation was a statement that "the quarantine may be extended in Bogota". She knows as well as anyone that is not a decision she can make. It does not help the situation in my opinion for her to stir up shit at a critical time like this. Her public manner is aggressive and confrontational. It seems clear to me she has political axes to grind and she is using the virus as a gambit.
I read his statement and I'm still not sure I understand what intelligent isolation means. It sounds like he is laying the groundwork for quarantining only the elderly. I think that is an interesting idea. Perhaps that is a starting ground for getting the economy going while still protecting the most vulnerable.
I will take a shot a this. No, I don't believe mongering is at its end. If history is any indication, mongering will survive this public health situation the way it survived so many catastrophic events throughout history. It survived every biblical scale natural disaster, every war, every famine, every plague, every STD, every political trend, even the early 20th century pandemic flu that has become the hand wringing point of reference for political pundits in North America.
I suppose I might see it differently if I were in the midst of what is happening in the US right now. I would maybe also see it differently if I did not have a date lined up for 30 minutes from now, or if I were feeling poorly.
Well I've had the flu shot every year and started doing so about 8 years ago when I didn't and got the flu, and since then I haven't caught the flu.
I hope you are dead wrong about there being no certification or effective vaccine for the virus and am sure you feel the same way as well, but time will tell and maybe it will boil down to a miracle treatment, only time will tell.
So getting back to my original question, if there is no effective vaccine, etc. Then does that mean all visitors to a Country will have to be quarantined when arriving in your opinion. And if so, I guess that will put a damper on foreign tourism to Countries, and mongering.
The thought of this is mind boggling.
YippieKayay
04-05-20, 21:24
I think you got it right. There are other infectious diseases (ebola, SARS, STDs, turberculosis etc.) that did not cast the world back to the Middle Ages.Tuberculosis has been cured and you can be inoculated for it. Those others you mention are not as infectious as SARS-COV-2. Here is a video that illustrates why this is so serious. Pay particular attention to how quickly it spreads:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FVIGhz3uwuQ
More opinion. I continue to work through this, which forces me into the public, just trying to keep myself fed. That's turned into it's own struggle. Many places have closed their restaurants, including fast food, or shortened their hours.
Many people in the US aren't taking this seriously. Most of the cars I see on the road obviously aren't out on essential business. You don't take the whole family out, with the dog, to buy Charmin vat 10 pm. The fast food restaurants I'm stuck getting food from, the employees are often not taking any extra precautions.
Worst are the other customers. Every day, even with my best efforts to maintain my distance, someone will come closer than I'm comfortable with, even without the virus out there. There's 5 empty urinals, I took the one farthest away for a reason. Why are you taking the one next to me? There's enough room for you to stay 10 feet away from me, why do I need to hug the wall to avoid being bumped by you?
Now the CDC is recommending masks on everyone. A good idea. However, and too bad if you think this is too political, the way the President announced it seemed to strongly suggest wearing masks isn't important. If he doesn't want to wear a mask, fine. Tell the world, "I won't be wearing a mask to make sure more masks are available for the doctors in the White House. " Don't stand up there and repeatedly stress it's optional.
I'm expecting widespread curfews soon, although only coming on the local level. I don't think we're close to hitting a plateau yet. That won't happen until 2 or 3 weeks after the administration stands up and clearly says "Stay the fuck at home.".It's amazing how people are so ambivalent about things, along with the varying degrees of isolation being enforced by States and Localities. Probably the scariest thing brought up lately has been to "wear masks" as you mentioned implying that just speaking with someone, their breathing alone, not a cough or a sneeze could cause infection.
I came back from Colombia three weeks ago, and whenever I have been in a store, I have always worn a mask. During my first week back home people were frightened of me, looking at me assuming I was infected and stayed clear of me. Boy have things changed in the last three weeks with the realization as to how easily this virus spreads, for all we know we could becoming infected when someone farts and the gas lingers in the air. And you look at Louisiana, with all those infections, most probably from the Mardi Gras celebrations in late February. And why since January have we seen every single person in an Asian Country wearing a mask. You would think a lot of people in the USA would think, gee wiz, why are they doing that? It has been pretty clear to me they are doing it for a reason.
I live a Southern California beach town and last week they shut down the beach, the parking lots, and the water meaning no surfers allowed to ride the waves, and life guards patrolling the beach preventing anyone from coming onto the sand and entering the water. And in the next town down from me, guess what, the beach was open with people walking on the beach, and surfers in the water on Saturday. So imagine somebody on the beach who is infected, doesn't know it, walks by somebody say 15 feet away, downwind, and there is a breeze or it's windy which normally can be the case, and boom another infected person in the works. Maybe it sounds a little far fetched, but plausible.
And during the Presidents briefing on Saturday I believe Dr. Brix said not to go to the Supermarket or go out period. Scary when your told not to go out period, at all. At least Colombia has it right now limiting people out to twice a week with a curfew in place. But will see what happens on that.
You would think people would get it, no different than what the Italians have been telling everyone regarding what they should have done in retrospect. Your right J2 Bee, very few people in the USA have been taking this whole thing seriously enough.
So getting back to my original question, if there is no effective vaccine, etc. Then does that mean all visitors to a Country will have to be quarantined when arriving in your opinion. And if so, I guess that will put a damper on foreign tourism to Countries, and mongering
Germany has been talking about an immunity certificate. Maybe we can all get one and go to FKK.
I think the situation is not as bad as you think in the future. There are tests coming out that can provide result quickly. If they are reliable, maybe the tourist can get one upon entry or before boarding and have the tourist pay the cost of the test.
German has been talking about a certificate. Maybe we can all get one and go to FKK.FKK is fun, but it is no substitute for Medellin.
Elvis 2008
04-06-20, 00:13
How can a successful investor not understand basic math?Because an investor I know when numbers are bullshit and when they are real. That was my first and most painful part of investing. Numbers do not lie, but people lie about numbers. I saw China lied about their numbers based on patterns, so the best data we have is flawed. I have read death rates from 0. 8 to 8%, and it varies tremendously on testing. In fact, when you look at country data, death rate percentage is all over the place. Hell, what constitutes a positive test is under debate.
With TB, there may be 9000 new cases of TB in the USA, but there are 13 million latent cases. That means TB is in their body, and if their immune system is in any way deficient, the TB can flare and be deadly.
You want to make estimates based on data, have at it but do not tell me what is established because nothing is. Maybe you noticed that a day or two after I said that new cases has peaked, a lot of the media and experts were saying the same thing about Italy, Washington, and California. And now the CIA says the data out of China is bullshit.
One effective treatment, and I do not mean a 100% effective, and the death numbers go way down. Any projection is based upon doctors not getting any better treating this disease, and I do not buy that. People who use Malthusian models NEVER count on human ingenuity, and that is why they almost always fail.
Furthermore, when you say, it is decided, you could not be more wrong. That is global warming crap. How can a man made theory be all decided? The data supporting man made global warming is crap. If the planet is going to end as we know it, and I am not sure when that is, why don't we just all kill ourselves? Let's party like it is 1999. Fuck Covid. The earth is going to die.
All logic aside, I am sorry about your friend. A high school acquaintance of mine got the virus, and it saddened me to see her so sick.
Germany has been talking about an immunity certificate. Maybe we can all get one and go to FKK.
I think the situation is not as bad as you think in the future. There are tests coming out that can provide result quickly. If they are reliable, maybe the tourist can get one upon entry or before boarding and have the tourist pay the cost of the test.Interesting, and I hope your right. Perhaps six months from now when the worst is over in the USA (hopefully) someone who wanted to fly internationally would arrive at as an example say LAX, and go to a dedicated off-site remote parking lot, get tested, and if cleared be taken to the International Terminal. As far as an immunity certificate, if supposedly people who have caught the disease and have taken an anti-body test might be able to get certified that way, but I don't know if there are different types of the virus, and how long the immunity lasts. However, testing before boarding the plane makes sense, but perhaps were missing something, like a person could be infected but not show up positive for a few days. I'm sure other board members could shed some light on this.
This all sounds like something out of a science fiction novel, now besides having to go thru security at the airports, we most probably will have to go thru medical testing to board an International flight.
Elvis 2008
04-06-20, 01:33
Germany has been talking about an immunity certificate. Maybe we can all get one and go to FKK.An immunity certificate? So I should expose myself and risk it. Hell, may be worth it. "Cough in my face Grandma! I got to get to Colombia!
I think the situation is not as bad as you think in the future. There are tests coming out that can provide result quickly. If they are reliable, maybe the tourist can get one upon entry or before boarding and have the tourist pay the cost of the test.I agree with you on it not being so bad. The numbers and curves appear to soon show a dramatic lowering of active cases in the coming weeks. It isn't how many cases the USA Had that matters but how many active cases when we get ready to travel.
There is also the notion that the USA Has 6 X or so the amount of people but 200 X the number of cases right? Eh, I am not so sure. One of my chicas told me that a clinic had a whole slew of people who tested + for Covid 19 in a Medellin, but they were not put on the government list.
Also, Colombia has a larger population than Peru, Chile, Ecuador, and Panama, but it has fewer cases. That supports the idea that they are fudging the numbers, so the whole idea the USA Has way more cases percentage wise than Colombia probably is true, but I am not sure that it is as big as it is made out to be.
To me, the simplest thing is to just check a temperature. Yes, I know there is a time frame the virus is contagious but asymptomatic, but it is not like there are not cases in Colombia already.
I think this thing burns itself out. The whole notion being put out there is that there is no immunity to this virus which is bullshit. There is no specific immunity which is kind of like saying that you have sharp shooters specific for the virus. The body has all other kinds of weapons in place to kill the virus. The idea that if the virus gets hold and you have no immunity and you get an infection is just bunk. It is a war, and wars can be won without sharp shooters.
On the other hand, it might be that the virus triggers an overactive immune response that is in fact what is deadly. Apparently, when you have the cryogenic strom mediated by Il-6 mostly, you can see someone go down in hours right before your eyes. When the war is being fought in the body, it is possible that friendly fire is what does many if not most people in.
Dcrist0527
04-06-20, 03:40
Because an investor I know when numbers are bullshit and when they are real. That was my first and most painful part of investing. Numbers do not lie, but people lie about numbers. I saw China lied about their numbers based on patterns, so the best data we have is flawed. I have read death rates from 0. 8 to 8%, and it varies tremendously on testing. In fact, when you look at country data, death rate percentage is all over the place. Hell, what constitutes a positive test is under debate.
With TB, there may be 9000 new cases of TB in the USA, but there are 13 million latent cases. That means TB is in their body, and if their immune system is in any way deficient, the TB can flare and be deadly.
You want to make estimates based on data, have at it but do not tell me what is established because nothing is. Maybe you noticed that a day or two after I said that new cases has peaked, a lot of the media and experts were saying the same thing about Italy, Washington, and California. And now the CIA says the data out of China is bullshit.
One effective treatment, and I do not mean a 100% effective, and the death numbers go way down. Any projection is based upon doctors not getting any better treating this disease, and I do not buy that. People who use Malthusian models NEVER count on human ingenuity, and that is why they almost always fail..Phenomenal post. No offense, but for those of you claiming to fully understand what works, what prevention steps work, etc. You are only fooling yourself. Ask yourself. How could we possibly know when the peak will occur? How could you possibly attribute Italy's 2- day old improvement to quarantining? They've been locked down for weeks. I firmly believe we humans fool ourselves into believing some of this stuff to feel in control. Don't believe that? Look back at the last 3 months and appreciate how our understanding of this virus has changed.
Phenomenal post. No offense, but for those of you claiming to fully understand what works, what prevention steps work, etc. You are only fooling yourself. Ask yourself. How could we possibly know when the peak will occur? How could you possibly attribute Italy's 2- day old improvement to quarantining? They've been locked down for weeks. I firmly believe we humans fool ourselves into believing some of this stuff to feel in control. Don't believe that? Look back at the last 3 months and appreciate how our understanding of this virus has changed.I think there is good evidence that maintaining distance and not touching shit without a thorough washing afterwards does stop transmission. Other than that, not much. So to that extent we have some control. But other than that all we have is the numbers. As fudged and incomplete as they are. There are many undiagnosed cases out there. Hence "community transmission". So any "distancing" we do now we still have to remember that it was what was going on 2 to 3 weeks ago, as well as what is happening now, that is making the numbers happen.
The numbers are certainly showing differences from country to country. But a lot of those differences are timing. It got really rolling at different times in different places. Basically when you had it get into the "community transmission" phase.
Using just the numbers, and the rates of increase or decrease, paints a pretty bad picture. Especially in the US at the moment.
Dcrist0527
04-06-20, 13:24
I think there is good evidence that maintaining distance and not touching shit without a thorough washing afterwards does stop transmission. Other than that, not much. So to that extent we have some control. But other than that all we have is the numbers. As fudged and incomplete as they are. There are many undiagnosed cases out there. Hence "community transmission". So any "distancing" we do now we still have to remember that it was what was going on 2 to 3 weeks ago, as well as what is happening now, that is making the numbers happen.
The numbers are certainly showing differences from country to country. But a lot of those differences are timing. It got really rolling at different times in different places. Basically when you had it get into the "community transmission" phase.
Using just the numbers, and the rates of increase or decrease, paints a pretty bad picture. Especially in the US at the moment.Great post. I agree entirely. Distancing makes sense. That's common sense. But unless we are willing to shutter everything for 2-3 weeks, and sanitize everything on the face of the planet, simultaneously, eliminating this virus is a pipe dream.
Your point about numbers is spot on. They are flawed. And I'm just frustrated by how they are misinterpreted. People rely on the mortality rate, while not even thinking how testing affects that rate. So many are freaking out about the number of cases in the US. Well, that's inevitable because the number of tests in the US is so much higher. I say this about everyone, not just on this board: the doom and gloom crowd will find numbers that seem to support their story. And more importantly, it doesn't help the general public's understanding of facts.
YippieKayay
04-07-20, 00:34
The Prime Minister of the UK is in the ICU. They keep saying its just a precaution but it looks like things took a turn for the worst.
He's only 55 years old. Not exactly geriatric.
ChuchoLoco
04-07-20, 02:10
The Prime Minister of the UK is in the ICU. They keep saying its just a precaution but it looks like things took a turn for the worst.
He's only 55 years old. Not exactly geriatric.Seems serious. If he can get it, anyone can. Not sure if he had lots of contact with the job but in any event, nobody is safe.
Elvis 2008
04-07-20, 03:58
Using just the numbers, and the rates of increase or decrease, paints a pretty bad picture. Especially in the US at the moment.Zeos, if you look at numbers as in total numbers and expected deaths coming up, things look badly I agree. Two of my Facebook friends have been hit now which sucks. They are both around Chicago.
From a new cases POV though, things are looking up. We have below 30,000 cases the last two days in the USA In the world, we hopefully have peaked at 100,000 new cases in a day. Last two days have been at 70,000+.
Then in Colombia, the worst day was March 31 with 159 cases. The last two days there have been only 70+ cases.
Hopefully, fingers crossed, the new cases continues to decline. Sadly, the number of deaths in the next 2 weeks will probably be the most yet.
Seems serious. If he can get it, anyone can. Not sure if he had lots of contact with the job but in any event, nobody is safe.Just days before he tested positive he was bragging about shaking hands with patients who had COVID-19. I'm afraid Boris isn't the brightest bulb on the Christmas tree.
Dcrist0527
04-07-20, 21:26
The absolute number of tests in US is high. But unfortunately these numbers are a bit misleading. It does not represent people tested. Because many people require 3 tests (1 to confirm it, 2 to provide all clear when it is over). Healthcare workers, etc. Also on a per capita basis US is in the middle of the pack worldwide. The other thing. Same as here in Canada. They are not testing people with symptoms that don't need medical care. They are told to go home and self isolate (by law). So who knows if increased testing is overestimating the growth in numbers of cases (as some are claiming), or if less testing is actually being done relative to the cases.
Also a disturbing thing on numbers of deaths. New York is not counting people who die outside the hospital who were not confirmed cases. The numbers of those is estimated in the low hundreds per day. Anyway. Hopefully the curve is really flattening. We all really need that.Exactly my point. Inaccurate numbers are worthless. And can be misleading. Point well taken on the number of tests. Most states are reporting new cases, which seems like a fair metric. But as you rightly point out, suspected cases which do not have very serious symptoms are not always tested. But, for some reason (obviously financial,) some people, particularly the media and political figures are promoting this as Armageddon. They claim to know that certain locales will peak in August. Yet, those same models missed their projections in NY by 500%! Worse, I now see some municipalities reporting assumed cases. You would think that might be some calculation on those with symptoms but are not tested? But no, it's an assumption that for every positive test, there are 9 asymptomatic carriers out there that haven't been tested. Even the disclaimers are comical. They state this is just to inform the public of how widespread this might be.
I'm not discounting the real danger, the real contagious nature and the lethality of this disease. But my patience with the outright hysteria painted by some (and it is occurring in liberal and conservative quarters) is just about gone.
Don't even get me started on hydroxychloroquine. CNN told me today that "doctors are hoarding these drugs". Generally, pharmacies dispense the drugs, no? I know that seems like a bit of semantics. But it is just another example of the media playing on the public's emotions at a time of crisis.
Exactly my point. Inaccurate numbers are worthless. And can be misleading. Point well taken on the number of tests. Most states are reporting new cases, which seems like a fair metric. But as you rightly point out, suspected cases which do not have very serious symptoms are not always tested. But, for some reason (obviously financial,) some people, particularly the media and political figures are promoting this as Armageddon. They claim to know that certain locales will peak in August. Yet, those same models missed their projections in NY by 500%! Worse, I now see some municipalities reporting assumed cases. You would think that might be some calculation on those with symptoms but are not tested? But no, it's an assumption that for every positive test, there are 9 asymptomatic carriers out there that haven't been tested. Even the disclaimers are comical. They state this is just to inform the public of how widespread this might be.
I'm not discounting the real danger, the real contagious nature and the lethality of this disease. But my patience with the outright hysteria painted by some (and it is occurring in liberal and conservative quarters) is just about gone.
Don't even get me started on hydroxychloroquine. CNN told me today that "doctors are hoarding these drugs". Generally, pharmacies dispense the drugs, no? I know that seems like a bit of semantics. But it is just another example of the media playing on the public's emotions at a time of crisis.Someone in the past called it "the fog of war". Who knows whether numbers are high or low or forecasts especially are high or low. For any country. All we can do is wish for the best. And do what we can do. That is not spread it and try not to catch it.
ChuchoLoco
04-08-20, 14:31
Just days before he tested positive he was bragging about shaking hands with patients who had COVID-19. I'm afraid Boris isn't the brightest bulb on the Christmas tree.If that's the case, then he should be in the psyche unit next.
Just days before he tested positive he was bragging about shaking hands with patients who had COVID-19. I'm afraid Boris isn't the brightest bulb on the Christmas tree.If this is true, shaking hands (bareback) I'm assuming with infected patients, than he deserves what he got as cynical as that may sound. However I do hope he survives, at least for his young pregnant wife. Unbelievable what he did bare-backing (handshake) a COVID-19 patient if true.
Someone in the past called it "the fog of war". Who knows whether numbers are high or low or forecasts especially are high or low. For any country. All we can do is wish for the best. And do what we can do. That is not spread it and try not to catch it.That's an apt description. You don't rush into battle assuming your enemy is weak and easily defeated. You err on the side of caution.
Everyone remember Three Mile Island? I had to sit through a detailed "lessons learned" training on the partial meltdown. They had a reasonably minor situation, but nobody trusted the numbers (the readings from their instruments). They couldn't be right, it didn't make sense. If they had believed the numbers, the problem wouldn't have even made the news. Instead, they did the opposite of what the readings indicated they should do. The readings got worse, and still they believed the problem was with the numbers. This continued until a minor problem became the #1 news topic in the world. Finally at that point someone asked "what if the numbers are right?" Five minutes later, the readings started returning to normal. By then it was too late. There had been a partial meltdown and radioactive release.
Consular Affairs' Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary Brownlee warns Americans overseas should act now to get out of harm's way.
https://twitter.com/StateDept/status/1247959230939910146
My bullshit meter is going off the scale now. Is he saying all international travel will be suspended indefinitely? There's something much bigger coming down the pike besides this bullshit virus, that's my 2 pesos.
Consular Affairs' Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary Brownlee warns Americans overseas should act now to get out of harm's way.
https://twitter.com/StateDept/status/1247959230939910146
My bullshit meter is going off the scale now. Is he saying all international travel will be suspended indefinitely? There's something much bigger coming down the pike besides this bullshit virus, that's my 2 pesos.Did we see the same video?
He said that the chartered flights (to return US citizens) will not continue indefinitely.
Please understand a video before posting "The sky is falling" comments.
Did we see the same video?
He said that the chartered flights (to return US citizens) will not continue indefinitely.
Please understand a video before posting "The sky is falling" comments."chartered flights (to return US citizens) will not continue indefinitely. ".
I understood it as, get your ass home now, because it's very likely, very soon, that you ass is going to be stuck where its at. Because there will not be any more flights to the US. That's what I got from the video. Did I miss something?
What did you get?
"chartered flights (to return US citizens) will not continue indefinitely. ".
I understood it as, get your ass home now, because it's very likely, very soon, that you ass is going to be stuck where its at. Because there will not be any more flights to the US. That's what I got from the video. Did I miss something?
What did you get?You can interpret it many different ways LOL. My thought is they're giving Americans a chance to come home at the moment. If things get worse like they are thinking will happen, then your ass is going to be stuck wherever you are. Well not necessarily stuck, but unable to get back to the US. It's a gamble that's for sure. Unless you are stuck somewhere that is dealing with the issue just fine.
Shout out to Mojo for posting up this thread!! I cannot imagine having to read through all of this shit on the Medellin reports section LOL. Well done young lad.
This is not what he said.
Is he saying all international travel will be suspended indefinitely? This is.
"chartered flights (to return US citizens) will not continue indefinitely. "
Dcrist0527
04-09-20, 02:17
This is not what he said.
This is.The point he was making: the chartered flights that are organized and operated by the State Dept are ending. There were hundreds of Americans stuck in countries with no commercial flights out of the countries. The State Department chartered several flights. Peru had the most that I'm aware of. The message was simple. Those chartered flights are ending so there may be no way out. I don't say that as a scare tactic. He is just saying this is the last chance.
Don't even get me started on hydroxychloroquine. CNN told me today that "doctors are hoarding these drugs". Generally, pharmacies dispense the drugs, no? I know that seems like a bit of semantics. But it is just another example of the media playing on the public's emotions at a time of crisis.If you google it, this is a common way of saying the doctors are writing prescriptions for themselves or family members.
You can interpret it many different ways LOL. My thought is they're giving Americans a chance to come home at the moment. If things get worse like they are thinking will happen, then your ass is going to be stuck wherever you are. Well not necessarily stuck, but unable to get back to the US. It's a gamble that's for sure. Unless you are stuck somewhere that is dealing with the issue just fine.Yep you're right. I find this kind of shit disturbing. I like to go anywhere I want to, when I want to. This is unprecedented times. Over a fucking virus huh?
One has to ask oneself, Why are they destroying the Global economy? Because they're concerned about our health? Hahahaa whatever. IMO, there is a fundamental shift happening. Maybe a Polar reversal? Climate Change? Giant Meteor? Impeach 45? Russia? Who the fuck knows.
Stay safe, fire up the grill and have a cold one! Peace.
This is not what he said.
This is.Describe "Charter".
Describe "Charter".
Something like this
https://co.usembassy.gov/april-fifteen-spirit-airlines/
Dcrist0527
04-09-20, 03:48
If you google it, this is a common way of saying the doctors are writing prescriptions for themselves or family members.Point #1: CNN tells us the drug is a Trump scam. Yet they also claim it's being hoarded by medical professionals. Which is it?
Point #2: you think doctors write enough prescriptions to family members to cause a national shortage? Even if that were true, their DEA number is attached to everything they write.
Lastly, even if that was the case, which I don't buy, how in the world would a news outlet accurately run an investigation to make that determination in a matter of days? They didn't. It's just another play on people's emotions by our beloved media.
Something like this
https://co.usembassy.gov/april-fifteen-spirit-airlines/This means War.
Point #1: CNN tells us the drug is a Trump scam. Yet they also claim it's being hoarded by medical professionals. Which is it?
Point #2: you think doctors write enough prescriptions to family members to cause a national shortage? Even if that were true, their DEA number is attached to everything they write.
Lastly, even if that was the case, which I don't buy, how in the world would a news outlet accurately run an investigation to make that determination in a matter of days? They didn't. It's just another play on people's emotions by our beloved media.CNN is Fake News, So many people being saved by Trump Pills now, They Shall be one of the keys to beating this virus.
I got my Trump pills for $33 over the counter. But very hard to find now.
Pompeo made the same announcement 3 weeks ago after a number of Americans began publicly and bitterly criticizing the State Department because they were unable to get consular services or even contact embassies. That support in a time of need is of course one of the reasons for federal taxes. The Trump administration recognized the political vulnerability they faces over the prospect of Americans dying offshore for lack of government support. The earlier announcement and this one is a way to forestall the damage by being able to say "well we told you to go back to America so now you are on your own". By the way in Colombia today's flight leaves from Bogota. If you don't happen to be in Bogota it is not easy to get there. Also, priority was given to people based on health risk amd anyone judged to be too sick will not be allowed to board. Finally, once the flight reaches Atlanta you are once again on your own if you don't happen to live in Atlanta. Finally, you have to sign a promissory note to pay the cost of the flight but that cost is to he determined at a later date. I guess it could be worth it if you really must be in the US as soon as possible, the place where more people are being infected and dying than anywhere else.
"chartered flights (to return US citizens) will not continue indefinitely."
I understood it as, get your ass home now, because it's very likely, very soon, that you ass is going to be stuck where its at. Because there will not be any more flights to the US. That's what I got from the video. Did I miss something?
What did you get?
Dcrist0527
04-09-20, 14:03
CNN is Fake News, So many people being saved by Trump Pills now, They Shall be one of the keys to beating this virus.
I got my Trump pills for $33 over the counter. But very hard to find now.Trump pills? LOL I do believe a true study is needed. But I just laugh at those that discount the demonstrated effectiveness just because Trump mentioned it. It's TDS at its finest.
Here's a story that has to blow their mind:
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2020/04/08/fact-check-did-michigan-dem-credit-trump-her-covid-19-recovery/2967210001/
Trump pills? LOL I do believe a true study is needed. But I just laugh at those that discount the demonstrated effectiveness just because Trump mentioned it. It's TDS at its finest.
Here's a story that has to blow their mind:
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2020/04/08/fact-check-did-michigan-dem-credit-trump-her-covid-19-recovery/2967210001/It's incredible to me. There's the whole world basically. And then there's the Trumpists. The facts about everything are different with the Trumpists. Anyway. I don't have a dog in this race. I'm not an American. But it's all politics in the US. And arguments about shit. Meanwhile the US is going through the worst outcome in the world with this epidemic. The pill he is pushing may be good, it may not be. It could help save lives. But it won't come close to denting the impact as long as people don't stay home basically and not spread this thing to other people. And that has not happened because everyone is arguing about all the "distractions" being thrown out there.
Good luck to all of you. I hope most of you are still alive to argue about this stuff after this is all done.
Point #2: you think doctors write enough prescriptions to family members to cause a national shortage? Even if that were true, their DEA number is attached to everything they write.
Lastly, even if that was the case, which I don't buy, how in the world would a news outlet accurately run an investigation to make that determination in a matter of days? They didn't. It's just another play on people's emotions by our beloved media.I can observe the problem CNN has. There are plenty of examples that one can use to trash them but I think this one is not because it is reported widely by all news organizations. I think what you doing to CNN in this example is similar to what CNN is doing to Trump.
GeneHickman
04-09-20, 16:53
It's incredible to me. There's the whole world basically. And then there's the Trumpists. The facts about everything are different with the Trumpists. Anyway. I don't have a dog in this race. I'm not an American. But it's all politics in the US. And arguments about shit. Meanwhile the US is going through the worst outcome in the world with this epidemic. The pill he is pushing may be good, it may not be. It could help save lives. But it won't come close to denting the impact as long as people don't stay home basically and not spread this thing to other people. And that has not happened because everyone is arguing about all the "distractions" being thrown out there.
Good luck to all of you. I hope most of you are still alive to argue about this stuff after this is all done.Don't know if you are from a EU country, but as a matter of fact the US is doing far better than EU on this despite the media distractions. US media has completely lost their credibility. This started before Trump but has escalated dramatically as Trump is a disruptive force with a disruptive mandate from people fed up with the status quo. He is also a person that relishes that antagonism and plays to that with the media. I for one take anything the US media says with a grain of salt. And that's a pity because there are so few sources of accurate information and that is giving the propagandists plenty of room.
Back to Covid-19, the US is like 6 x the population of the average European large country. There have been 12 k deaths so far.
Current modeling says 61 k deaths and there is reason to believe we can come in even lower than that. The UK alone is expected to exceed that number. So I would disagree with your premise that the US is much more affected.
Dcrist0527
04-09-20, 18:01
It's incredible to me. There's the whole world basically. And then there's the Trumpists. The facts about everything are different with the Trumpists. Anyway. I don't have a dog in this race. I'm not an American. But it's all politics in the US. And arguments about shit. Meanwhile the US is going through the worst outcome in the world with this epidemic. The pill he is pushing may be good, it may not be. It could help save lives. But it won't come close to denting the impact as long as people don't stay home basically and not spread this thing to other people. And that has not happened because everyone is arguing about all the "distractions" being thrown out there.
Good luck to all of you. I hope most of you are still alive to argue about this stuff after this is all done.Not sure if I'm considered a Trumpist. LOL In reality, I'm not. He has many flaws. And I agree with you that Trump has some of his following willing to suspend reality just because he said so. I would contend there are even more people who discount everything he says, simply because he said it. This drug is exactly that. It is discounted simply because Trump mentioned it, so it cuts both ways.
As for the predicament the US is in. To date, our number of infected, number of hospital beds needed, number of ventilators needed, our number of deaths. All have been just a small fraction of what was projected. And one thing everyone agreees on is that by and large, Americans have maintained social distancing well and that is by far the biggest reason we've outperformed projections. We can absolutely fight viciously, but that doesn't mean we aren't adhering to the orders.
Dcrist0527
04-09-20, 18:11
I can observe the problem CNN has. There are plenty of examples that one can use to trash them but I think this one is not because it is reported widely by all news organizations. I think what you doing to CNN in this example is similar to what CNN is doing to Trump.I agree with most of what you said. But I don't give a lot of credence to it being widely reported in other outlets. Sadly, journalism is dead. There are so few investigative journalists now. What we're left with are a bunch of good looking parrots that stick to bumper sticker slogans. And in fairness, that is our own fault. As a community, we take those headlines and don't try to think for ourselves. Add to that the ratings game within "news" organizations. And we're left with what we have: biased and partisan slanted news organizations, both on the left and right. And I don't see that changing until we as a community start thinking critically and stop being spoon fed.
War is a strong word. The Pompeo aide who elaborated on the second announcement of the humanitarian flights that are being referred to as charters here on ISG emphasized Latin America as a region Americans should evacuate. I believe that was a reference to the Trump administration's earlier announcements about Nicolas Maduro and Venezuela, and US military movements in the region.
This means War.
Yesterday Hong Kong started testing all International arriving passengers, and are also requiring a mandatory 14-day quarantine even for those who test negative.
Interesting and I suppose a way to start opening Countries up again. With the mandatory 14 day quarantine though that's not going to open the Country up to tourism.
It will be interesting to see how Colombia open's back up moving forward short of a vaccine or immunity certificate.
Elvis 2008
04-09-20, 21:42
The point he was making: the chartered flights that are organized and operated by the State Dept are ending. There were hundreds of Americans stuck in countries with no commercial flights out of the countries. The State Department chartered several flights. Peru had the most that I'm aware of. The message was simple. Those chartered flights are ending so there may be no way out. I don't say that as a scare tactic. He is just saying this is the last chance.I agree, and Peru pissed a lot of people off with how they did things. When the USA starts handing out loans via IMF or the World Bank, they may be last in line.
Elvis 2008
04-09-20, 21:44
If you google it, this is a common way of saying the doctors are writing prescriptions for themselves or family members.Doctors typically are not allowed to write for themselves or family members. It is a stupid anti-doctor meme. Doctors are buying it to dispense to their patients because so many pharmacies are out of the drugs.
Not sure if I'm considered a Trumpist. LOL In reality, I'm not. He has many flaws. And I agree with you that Trump has some of his following willing to suspend reality just because he said so. I would contend there are even more people who discount everything he says, simply because he said it. This drug is exactly that. It is discounted simply because Trump mentioned it, so it cuts both ways.
As for the predicament the US is in. To date, our number of infected, number of hospital beds needed, number of ventilators needed, our number of deaths. All have been just a small fraction of what was projected. And one thing everyone agreees on is that by and large, Americans have maintained social distancing well and that is by far the biggest reason we've outperformed projections. We can absolutely fight viciously, but that doesn't mean we aren't adhering to the orders.I don't know that I would characterize it the way you have. The projections for the whole thing are a long way from known so far. The US is still early in the cycle. But. I guess my point was that emphasis on social distancing, staying at home, etc. Is far more useful than arguing about drugs or blaming people. Even blaming Trump doesn't help anyone at this point. I would love to see him lead the country to do the things that need to be done. It could save a lot of lives still. And that would be a lot better outcome for people than seeing him fail.
As for the drug. Every medical person I have heard interviewed has said it has some promise. But that it needs to be tested for this application to see if it is helpful or harmful. And that sort of testing doesn't have to take a long time. It is being done right now. He's looking for something positive to say. I get that. But it isn't too likely that this drug, even if it is moderately effective, is going to change the outcome of this epidemic in the short and medium term.
YippieKayay
04-09-20, 23:34
I'll tell you what's going to happen in the US.
Federal government is going to fuck it up. You can't have a deluded bankrupt "businessman" manage any of this. But he's a TV personality so some people will lap it up. State governments are going to be key. Some of them are going to deal with this better than most. Big cities are going to be hit hardest. Human epidemics are born of cities.
By the summer things will start to get better. Most countries will use a "graduated" system of opening things up. We'll have a second and possibly third wave. Borders will close again. Isolation will be used and the work intensive contact tracing will happen again without much success because of the two week incubation period. Within two years we'll build up the herd immunity or have a working vaccine.
If you think you're going to be banging Colombian chicas by the summer you should realign your expectations. Investing right now is going to be great.
Dcrist0527
04-09-20, 23:46
The US is still early in the cycle. But. I guess my point was that emphasis on social distancing, staying at home, etc. Is far more useful than arguing about drugs or blaming people.I am truly not trying to argue here. I guess the lockdown is making me ornery. LOL But I disagree. The US numbers, by and large, are at a plateau or even decreasing slightly in some locations. And they did more than just miss the projections. They missed by threefold or fivefold. Yes, social distancing brought these numbers down. But now what? The virus hasn't disappeared. Short of a vaccine, it will not. Without it, the number will not get to zero. It won't be close to zero. So the question is, what did social distancing gain us? Time?
Certainly. But we're still at least a year off from a vaccine. So what is the interim plan? Social distance for 12 more months? The world would never be the same. Governments will fall. People around the world are struggling to feed their families. In 12 months, can you imagine what will occur socially? So yes, drugs are absolutely critical. Big if, but if hydroxychloroquine works, or if these engineered antibodies can be manufactured, that's our only hope. The only other option is herd immunity, which would happen but with horrific casualty numbers. My bigger point is that social distancing was a pause, not a cure.
Dcrist0527
04-09-20, 23:54
I'll tell you what's going to happen in the US.
Federal government is going to fuck it up. You can't have a deluded bankrupt "businessman" manage any of this. But he's a TV personality so some people will lap it up. State governments are going to be key. Some of them are going to deal with this better than most. Big cities are going to be hit hardest. Human epidemics are born of cities.
By the summer things will start to get better. Most countries will use a "graduated" system of opening things up. We'll have a second and possibly third wave. Borders will close again. Isolation will be used and the work intensive contact tracing will happen again without much success because of the two week incubation period. Within two years we'll build up the herd immunity or have a working vaccine.
If you think you're going to be banging Colombian chicas by the summer you should realign your expectations. Investing right now is going to be great.I mostly agree. But reality is no government, federal or state, will solve this. It'll be a medical breakthrough by private outfits that solve this. I agree, there will be what appear to be waves. But the virus is not going away. The only thing that a federal or state government can do is try to keep the calm by balancing quarantines vs completely obliterating the global economy. And frankly, I don't like their chances.
Invest? Hahaha. Where in the world would you invest at this point. We should invest in ourselves. There will be opportunities through this crisis. We should invest in ourselves to be prepared to seize those opportunities.
As for Colombia. Who knows? I imagine we'll see a varied response from all countries. Some will seal off borders as best they can for 2 years. Some will open much sooner. But also lost in this conversation is global trade. Very few countries, if any are currently self sufficient. Like it or not, global trade compounds the problems.
I'll tell you what's going to happen in the US.
Thank the father of jesus that we have an expert on the US on the Colombia hooker board!
I'm stuck in the US waiting for my next trip. Would anybody care to speculate on when things will open back up for tourists to Colombia?
Elvis 2008
04-10-20, 00:47
Meanwhile the US is going through the worst outcome in the world with this epidemic.That is true if you believe the data from China is accurate. I don't. It does not fit what is being seen everywhere else in the world, and I thought that before the CIA made news saying the same thing.
The pill he is pushing may be good, it may not be. It could help save lives. But it won't come close to denting the impact as long as people don't stay home basically and not spread this thing to other people. And that has not happened because everyone is arguing about all the "distractions" being thrown out there.I think it is way too early to be saying definitively what works and what does not. I do not know where social distancing saves lives. The goal was to delay the viral spread, to flatten the curve so that the medical system was not overrun. I doubt that is going to happen now. A lot of hospitals are empty because so may elective procedures were delayed.
One thing you have to remember is the "experts" are just so designated that way by the media. People like myself who have dealt with the "experts" have been struck again and again with how wrong they have been, but this is not a conspiracy. What I see is "experts" making projections that politically give them cover. You always overestimate danger rather than underestimate it and then take credit for the actions you embarked on. In fact, the CDC has already done that. Often times, the "experts" do not know what they are talking about because they are presented with questions that have no answers like here. How do you stop the spread of a virus the likes of which the world has never seen before?
The cab driver in Cartagena who was put down in Colombia's covid-19 deaths tested negative for the virus. He was driving a person who tested + for the virus in his cab who was from Italy. The cab driver's sister tested +, but the dead cab driver did not. The point is that cause of death from Covid-19 with this man was an OPINION, and it show everyone that these are not real numbers but estimates. To me, they are better than nothing but not much better than nothing and to make any broad statement about what does and does not work is way premature.
Good luck to all of you. I hope most of you are still alive to argue about this stuff after this is all done.Yeah, well, I looked up the sensitivity and specificity of the testing last night. The specificity is great, but the sensitivity is God awful. To me, that means the virus is way more contagious than anyone has mentioned and is way less deadly. I suspect that a lot more people have had and are over the virus than anyone has mentioned.
My suspicion for the exponential decline in number of cases then is herd immunity, and all this talk about what was done or not done is kind of mute.
Elvis 2008
04-10-20, 01:21
I'm stuck in the US waiting for my next trip. Would anybody care to speculate on when things will open back up for tourists to Colombia?
JPMorgan used prediction models based on other viruses for the USA and estimated the shut ins will be over May 22, and I think June 6 is when the all clear sign will be given. I looked for that article and could not find it.
Colombia has two things against and for opening up that I see. They really need the money from trade. Unlike the USA, they do not have the world's printing press at their disposal. On the other, they have far fewer ventilators so they have to be careful because of that.
My wild ass guess is 1% in April, 50% chance in May, 75% in June, and 99% by July.
Elvis 2008
04-10-20, 01:34
Now you have Fauci under the 80,000 flu deaths in 2017.
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/dr-fauci-says-us-covid-19-us-deaths-could-be-low-60k-after-warning-millions-could-die
And in the article is all the good social distancing did. Sigh.
Well, yesterday, NYC Mayor de Blasio said that, after a few days of near capacity numbers, hospitalizations have dropped by such a steep degree that the city believes it has enough ventilators on hand, and won't need any more.
Dr. Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said he's "cautiously optimistic" that the US might soon see cases reach the back-side of the curve as the "turnaround and that curve not only flatten, but are coming down. ".
So much for those "established numbers" you were talking about.
I have one more prediction. I think when all is said and done. What we did with "social distancing" and most all the other interventions didn't do shit with regards to the virus spreading or not. I think the rapid peak and fall have everything to do with the nature of the virus and our immunity. The world clamored for expert advice, and this is what we were given, and my bet is that it didn't matter at all.
Dcrist0527
04-10-20, 01:54
Any big cap index in the western world is going to rebound 30% in a years time. There are lots of other undervalued individual stocks but if you want to grab a bunch I suggest an ETF that invests in telecoms in the short term and tourism in the longer term.No doubt the potential is everywhere. But I believe this is a longer term issue. If and when wave 2 comes through, it will psychologically cripple any growth. And depending on how we react as a society, it could take a decade for the markets to return to where we were. I hope I am dead wrong.
Mojo Bandit
04-10-20, 02:24
I have to apologize to YippieKayay for accidentally deleting his post. It was a great post on investing right now! I was going to respond and agree with him. Respond and Delete are right next to each other on this end and I accidentally hit delete. I am not a good moderator!
Investors call investing right now "buying at the dip". This could be a once in a couple of decade chance to buy this low, especially when we actually know why the market is down and can reasonably assume that it is going to go up when the world goes back to normal.
Mojo Bandit
04-10-20, 02:25
Thread: Cartagena Reports.
Yesterday 19:06#9664.
LoveItHere69 LoveItHere69 is offline.
Senior Member.
Posts: 60.
New. Flights to USA.
Location: Bogot, Cali, Cartagena, Medellin.
Event: Humanitarian Flights to Fort Lauderdale on April 15 and 16 - Operated by Spirit Airlines.
The USA Embassy is pleased announce that Spirit Airlines will operate three humanitarian flights. Two flights will depart April 15, one from El Dorado International Airport (BOG) in Bogot and a second flight from Rafael andez International Airport (CTG) in Cartagena. A third flight will depart April 16 from Alfonso Bonilla Aragand International Airport (CLO) in Cali, and then board additional passengers in Jos Mara crdova International Airport (MDE) in Medellin. All three flights will arrive at Fort Lauderdale. Hollywood International Airport (FLL) in Fort Lauderdale, Florida.
These flights have been made available to allow USA Citizens and Legal Permanent Residents to return to the United States. Please contact Spirit Airlines directly for seat availability, reservations, and pricing information.
These flights can only be booked online.
If you are interested in returning to the United States, please take advantage of these flights. The USA Government cannot guarantee the ability to arrange flights indefinitely. USA Citizens should return immediately to the United States, unless you are prepared to remain abroad for an indefinite period.
If you purchase a ticket on one of these flights, and encounter difficulties traveling to the airport from your location, please contact us at ColombiaEvac@state.gov or (57) 1 275-2000. We have received reports that taxis and bus companies continue to operate, albeit at reduced and limited schedules. If you believe you will have difficulty reaching the airport due to travel restrictions, please provide us with your travel information (name, date of birth, passport number, and contact details).
IMPORTANT:
Due to current travel guidelines in the United States, persons who have been in China, Iran, or certain European countries within 14 days prior to the flight will not be allowed to board this flight.
Onward connections from Fort Lauderdale, Florida are available.
War is a strong word. The Pompeo aide who elaborated on the second announcement of the humanitarian flights that are being referred to as charters here on ISG emphasized Latin America as a region Americans should evacuate. I believe that was a reference to the Trump administration's earlier announcements about Nicolas Maduro and Venezuela, and US military movements in the region.Good point. This has been on the chalk boards for awhile, and now it's going live. There is a US Navy Task Force in the Caribbean Sea, and also another US Navy Task Force in the Pacific. Looks like Central America is locked down. Maduro is going down. What do you make of it?
EDIT; apologies for the poor image quality, caught it on the run.
Now you have Fauci under the 80,000 flu deaths in 2017.
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/dr-fauci-says-us-covid-19-us-deaths-could-be-low-60k-after-warning-millions-could-die
And in the article is all the good social distancing did. Sigh.
Well, yesterday, NYC Mayor de Blasio said that, after a few days of near capacity numbers, hospitalizations have dropped by such a steep degree that the city believes it has enough ventilators on hand, and won't need any more.
Dr. Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said he's "cautiously optimistic" that the US might soon see cases reach the back-side of the curve as the "turnaround and that curve not only flatten, but are coming down. ".
So much for those "established numbers" you were talking about..All I can say is I hope your optimism is warranted.
I attended a funeral yesterday. By "attended a funeral" I mean I commented on the picture of the casket taken just before it was lowered in the grave. There were no mourners, although the deceased lived a long life and had, not only a large family, but a huge circle of friends. There will maybe be a wake in July. Until then we're all limited to sharing stories, about an incredible life, on Facebook.
The deceased had been living in a nursing home. While many nursing homes and assisted living facilities have been hard hit, this one should have been low risk. It's in a small town, in a sparsely populated area, and most of the population considers a 50 mile trip world travel. Yet, the virus made its way there.
To the best of my knowledge, no other residents have been tested. None of the other area nursing homes have been tested either. My guess is that in 4-6 weeks there will be a lot of vacancies. Maybe not.
Another core person in my life is currently in NYC, helping out as an RN. Fortunately, she's not in the high risk group.
I firmly believe, in February, when nearly everyone seemed to be downplaying the risk, if the US had aggressively worked to limit the spread, one person would still be alive today. We'll never know who may have survived, we'll only know who didn't.
Elvis 2008
04-11-20, 05:47
All I can say is I hope your optimism is warranted.
So a couple of things. The NYC ventilator shortage was pure political bullshit: https://www.zerohedge.com/health/look-how-ridiculously-wrong-all-covid-19-models-were#comment_stream.
COVID-19 cases have no objective, defined cause of death, and this doctor was saying that the CDC was pumping up the numbers on it: https://www.zerohedge.com/health/whistleblower-how-cdc-manipulating-covid-19-death-toll.
Then the other thing that is important is how the sensitivity of the covid testing is: https://www.livescience.com/covid19-coronavirus-tests-false-negatives.html.
When it comes to the data, you can throw all the models in the trash. We do not know the number of people who really died of the virus, and the percentage of people who have the virus who died, and even how many people really have or have had coronavirus. The numbers whatever you want it to be.
If there is an optimistic thing, it is the poor sensitivity of the test. What this tells me is the virus was waaay more contagious than anyone thought it was but it was also not that deadly.
Anyway, my guess now is that the reason we are seeing the plateau and then the decline has more to do with human immunity than social distancing, but it is just a guess. The immune system is way more complicated than just if you have antibodies to Covid.
I think we do see things get back to normal in late May as economics overtakes the fear of the virus. In all honesty, it probably was just much, much more contagious and not that more deadly than the seasonal flu.
I think we see travel resume in late May, early June now.
Elvis 2008
04-11-20, 05:50
I firmly believe, in February, when nearly everyone seemed to be downplaying the risk, if the US had aggressively worked to limit the spread, one person would still be alive today. We'll never know who may have survived, we'll only know who didn't.Well, I guess we will find out, but my guess, and it is just a guess, is that the spread of the virus has a hell of a lot more to do with the nature of the immune system and the nature of the virus than anything the "experts" told us to do.
Mojo Bandit
04-11-20, 08:29
. In all honesty, it probably was just much, much more contagious and not that more deadly than the seasonal flu.
I think we see travel resume in late May, early June now.I do not know what you read or where you live but I watch the New York City local news every day lately and the morgues in NYC are over capacity and mass graves are being dug on Hart Island in NYC. And you still want to say that this was not more deadly than the flu? Do you watch the news? Italy was putting people on ice rinks when they ran out of room at their morgues and you say it is no more deadly than the common flu?? You live in a bubble of information that you must be cultivating all on your own. Seasonal flu kills 1/10th of 1 percent of the people who contract it. It does not overflow the morgues. Right now the mortality rate in the state of New York is over 4% which means that even if actually people how have the disease is 400 times the reported number than this is still killing people at rate 10 times more than seasonal flu.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html
Social distancing is the only thing slowing this thing down period. No One has immunity to this. No one. There is some mystery why some younger and otherwise healthy people are dying from it but.
Common sense on why NYC got hit hard. Besides it being a place that has thousands of arriving people every day. It is a city that is the opposite of social distancing. When I fly into NYC (imagine I have the virus as I make my trip) I pick flight going in to either Newark in Jersey or JFK. Why because I hate surface transportation in NYC where the traffic sucks, So I get in a air train with about 10 other people (touching contaminating handles and poles the whole time) to take to the train station where we then get on various trains (myself and all the people I spread it to on the airtrain) into a commuter train car holding 20 or so people who will be breathing the same recycled air as us (in each train car that all ten of us got on) then us and all the people we contaminate along the way as commuter train makes its way to Penn Station and people at get off and people get on at the stops along the way. Then I and the up to as many 200 people who have been contaminated by now (10 on air train) x (20 in each of their train cars) and then we all go get on various subway cars that are packed with like 30 to fifty people. Who may then be going to catch a connecting subway or a bus to get the final destination. As we empty out of the subway other come in and tough all the handles that we did etc etc. Even walking down seventh, fifth or sixth avenue you are going to be standing in a crowd of 30 people waiting for a walk sign.
Well, I guess we will find out, but my guess, and it is just a guess, is that the spread of the virus has a hell of a lot more to do with the nature of the immune system and the nature of the virus than anything the "experts" told us to do.My guess is your guess is wrong.
We now have a control group regarding the spread of the disease: The USS Theodore Roosevelt.
It represents an enclosed environment and the entire crew has been tested. Of the 4800,448 have tested positive. Another 800 are waiting on test results.
If, as you stated, the disease is much more communicable than the flu, which affects around 17% of the population each year, there should be 2,000 or more positive results.
In other news, it turns out China isn't the only country whose numbers can't be trusted. Yesterday I found out the nursing home I earlier mentioned, has 11 more positive cases. Yet, those cases aren't included in the county, state or national stats. The death on Tuesday also hasn't been added to the tally. That's at least 12 uncounted cases in a town of 1,400.
Then today I saw this:
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/more-2-200-coronavirus-deaths-nursing-homes-federal-government-isn-n1181026
So our death tally is off by over 20%. Our confirmed cases tally is also well short of what's reported.
Which begs the question, are the numbers really dropping? Have we reached that plateau? Or are the numbers being manipulated?
Dcrist0527
04-11-20, 15:30
So a couple of things. The NYC ventilator shortage was pure political bullshit: https://www.zerohedge.com/health/look-how-ridiculously-wrong-all-covid-19-models-were#comment_stream.
COVID-19 cases have no objective, defined cause of death, and this doctor was saying that the CDC was pumping up the numbers on it: https://www.zerohedge.com/health/whistleblower-how-cdc-manipulating-covid-19-death-toll.
Then the other thing that is important is how the sensitivity of the covid testing is: https://www.livescience.com/covid19-coronavirus-tests-false-negatives.html.
When it comes to the data, you can throw all the models in the trash. We do not know the number of people who really died of the virus, and the percentage of people who have the virus who died, and even how many people really have or have had coronavirus. The numbers whatever you want it to be.
If there is an optimistic thing, it is the poor sensitivity of the test. What this tells me is the virus was waaay more contagious than anyone thought it was but it was also not that deadly..Elvis, this is an impressive post. I am not in any way in the medical field. But I have spent a lot of my time recently reading about the virus. My background is loosely in data analytics. Personally, I have strong feelings that nearly all of the numbers, models and estimates are truly worthless. Worse, the numbers are being intentionally skewed to inflate fear. The media is probably an unknowing participant. But the CDC, WHO, and state DHS teams should know better. And I think back now months ago to what Fauci said. It may have been his most true statement and clearly foreshadowing. Paraphrasing: 'If it looks like you're overreacting, you're probably doing the right thing. ' It is like your local weatherman who interrupts TV programming for 2 hours about a single cell storm. They will milk their 15 minutes for all its worth. Don't get me wrong, they have a place and do play a critical role. But they run the risk of losing credibility when overreacting, or worse yet, skewing the numbers to promote their "fix."
I too was shocked when I read how the death numbers are being abused. Take a look at the number of heart attacks that aren't occurring all of a sudden. Posthumously, they are found to test positive. Yet, they were symptom free. No one knows when they had the virus. And there is nothing to prove the heart attack was caused by Covid. But there is Dr Birx, admitting that those are counted as Covid deaths.
I don't think this was all a hoax. But clearly, there has been a driving force to promote this virus as armageddon. Why? I don't know and that is what scares me.
Dcrist0527
04-11-20, 15:40
I do not know what you read or where you live but I watch the New York City local news every day lately and the morgues in NYC are over capacity and mass graves are being dug on Hart Island in NYC. And you still want to say that this was not more deadly than the flu? Do you watch the news? Italy was putting people on ice rinks when they ran out of room at their morgues and you say it is no more deadly than the common flu?? You live in a bubble of information that you must be cultivating all on your own. Seasonal flu kills 1/10th of 1 percent of the people who contract it. It does not overflow the morgues. Right now the mortality rate in the state of New York is over 4% which means that even if actually people how have the disease is 400 times the reported number than this is still killing people at rate 10 times more than seasonal flu.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html
Social distancing is the only thing slowing this thing down period. No One has immunity to this. No one. There is some mystery why some younger and otherwise healthy people are dying from it but.
Common sense on why NYC got hit hard. Besides it being a place that has thousands of arriving people every day. It is a city that is the opposite of social distancing..Mojo,
I respect you a lot. And if you're in NYC, I feel for you. Ground zero. But the mortality rate is just not accurate. Yes, numbers are thrown out there. And simply, that is the number of deaths by number of confirmed cases. Why is that an invalid measurement? We have, by conservative estimates, 15-25% of the population that have this virus. There are number in Chicago from antibody testing that shows it might be as high as 50%. The point about mortality rate: we are vastly understating the number of people that have it. So why is the flu so low? We test everyone. Flu tests are a common practice. We are far more aware about who has the flu. Everyone that wants a test is tested. Now, we have people that have Covid that are not even given a test. It's just an invalid comparison.
That said, it doesn't make the human element of this story any better. You hear about people texting their goodbyes because they can't see family members. It's awful. But that doesn't make bad math any more valid.
Well, I guess we will find out, but my guess, and it is just a guess, is that the spread of the virus has a hell of a lot more to do with the nature of the immune system and the nature of the virus than anything the "experts" told us to do.Don't know what the heck you're thinking about or reading. But, unfortunately, there is a lot that is known about this virus. And the fact that we have no natural immunity by way of antibodies. Only the other defenses we all have. Getting an active case depends on being exposed to it, may depend to some extent on how much of the virus we were exposed to, and how our body handles it.
In any case we do know lots about how it spreads. And we know from following chains of infection (in some countries or areas they still know the source of every infection) what it takes to spread it. And, when you get people infected with it out interacting with other people it spreads. If they stay apart, and don't spread it through contaminating surfaces it does not spread. At least so little chance that it doesn't matter.
And doing those things works. There are countries and areas where it is not being spread at all, and new cases are all travelers coming in from other places.
Common sense on why NYC got hit hard. Besides it being a place that has thousands of arriving people every day. It is a city that is the opposite of social distancing. Another factor is the timing. There are several news reports comparing New York to California. Some thought California might have overreacted when the lock down was announced but so far California is doing better with a larger population. California has also announced the school will stay closed the rest of the school year. This morning I read the that New York City is trying to do the same but there is a power struggle going on there.
Don't know what the heck you're thinking about or reading. But, unfortunately, there is a lot that is known about this virus. And the fact that we have no natural immunity by way of antibodies. Only the other defenses we all have. Getting an active case depends on being exposed to it, may depend to some extent on how much of the virus we were exposed to, and how our body handles it.
In any case we do know lots about how it spreads. And we know from following chains of infection (in some countries or areas they still know the source of every infection) what it takes to spread it. And, when you get people infected with it out interacting with other people it spreads. If they stay apart, and don't spread it through contaminating surfaces it does not spread. At least so little chance that it doesn't matter.
And doing those things works. There are countries and areas where it is not being spread at all, and new cases are all travelers coming in from other places.I think it is not what we already know. It is what we don't know. One example is the face mask. All of a sudden it is recommended now, even by the experts who dismissed it earlier. Think about it, people in most Asian countries are already wearing face mask from the beginning. I am not saying they know more, but it is an attitude difference.
I think it is not what we already know. It is what we don't know. One example is the face mask. All of a sudden it is recommended now, even by the experts who dismissed it earlier. Think about it, people in most Asian countries are already wearing face mask from the beginning. I am not saying they know more, but it is an attitude difference.There was concern that recommending face masks would take them away from medical staff that needed them badly. Where they were in short supply. So I think that did play a part in the delay in recommending them for the general public.
The face masks help people not spread it when they have it. No one is arguing with that. What is in question. Still I think. Is whether they help protect you from the virus. For sure if someone sneezed or coughed in your face or close. That's why medical people have to have them. But at the 6 feet away distance it is questionable whether they protect or not. Could be. But certainly in closer quarters they would help not get infected. So yes, there is an issue as to why it took so long for experts to start recommending them. I think they were waiting for better proof. And didn't want to have a run on masks that would take them away from healthcare people.
I think it is not what we already know. It is what we don't know. One example is the face mask. All of a sudden it is recommended now, even by the experts who dismissed it earlier. Think about it, people in most Asian countries are already wearing face mask from the beginning. I am not saying they know more, but it is an attitude difference.There was a recent study that if an infected person sneezes or coughs instead of what they exhale / cough falling to the ground within six feet it can travel up to 26 feet.
Masks do help to reduce the transmission of the virus from a person who is infected and sneezes or coughs, but on the receiving end the masks the majority of the people are wearing do not filter out the majority of the particles. The N95 masks as they are called filter out 95% of particulates, hence the name N95, and they typically come in different sizes which you must be fitted for. Additionally, you cannot have any facial hair along the edges of where the mask fits on your face. So when I see someone with a beard wearing an N95 Mask the reality is vapors and particles can enter the sides of the mask.
In addition to the N95 masks, half face and full face respirators which can filter out 100 % particulates are even better than the disposable N95 masks.
I have two of these which are rated for 100 Particulate capture and wore one today while shopping in the supermarket. I got a lot of weird looks from the other shoppers, and if they think just wearing a mask like a surgical mask is protecting them if an infected person sneezes in close proximity to them they are susceptible.
Hence the need for N95 masks which basically are respirators that we have all heard on in the news.
YippieKayay
04-12-20, 02:20
https://www.vox.com/covid-19-coronavirus-treatment-prevention-cure-vaccines/2020/4/11/21217693/coronavirus-treatments-hydroxychloroquine-remdesivir-side-effects-covid-19-studies
"On a less optimistic note, France's drug-safety agency has released data indicating that hydroxychloroquine, the anti-malaria drug Trump has pushed as a potential miracle drug for treating Covid-19, appears to have serious side effects on the heart when used for Covid-19 patients, and should be used under medical supervision. The report details 43 cases of "heart incidents" tied to hydroxychloroquine. ".
Keep popping those "Trump pills" as long as you don't mind a "heart incident. ".
Mojo Bandit
04-12-20, 02:41
Mojo,
. We are far more aware about who has the flu. Everyone that wants a test is tested. Now, we have people that have Covid that are not even given a test. It's just an invalid comparison.
That said, it doesn't make the human element of this story any better. You hear about people texting their goodbyes because they can't see family members. It's awful. But that doesn't make bad math any more valid.Did you not understand what I said? Did you not read what I was responding to? The morgues are overflowing! And people still try to say "this is no worse than the flu. " Let me repeat that one more time, the goddamn morgues are over-fucking-flowing! J That is the only number that matters! That is the only evidence of a mortality rate you need. That is a verifiable fact, not an estimate or a guess. It is unprecedented since the Spanish Flu pandemic. There is no comparing the results to the seasonal flu. I don't care how many have it! Just about everyone comes into contact with the flu every year. If the flue was killing people like this then the morgues would be overflowing every year.
Elvis, this is an impressive post. I am not in any way in the medical field. But I have spent a lot of my time recently reading about the virus. My background is loosely in data analytics. Personally, I have strong feelings that nearly all of the numbers, models and estimates are truly worthless. Worse, the numbers are being intentionally skewed to inflate fear. The media is probably an unknowing participant. But the CDC, WHO, and state DHS teams should know better. And I think back now months ago to what Fauci said. It may have been his most true statement and clearly foreshadowing. Paraphrasing: 'If it looks like you're overreacting, you're probably doing the right thing. ' It is like your local weatherman who interrupts TV programming for 2 hours about a single cell storm. They will milk their 15 minutes for all its worth. Don't get me wrong, they have a place and do play a critical role. But they run the risk of losing credibility when overreacting, or worse yet, skewing the numbers to promote their "fix.".Here's some data to analyze.
This flu season it took approximately 165 days for the flu to kill 20,000 people in the US. It took no more than 40 days for 20,000 to die from COVID-19.
More data:. This season, according to the CDC percentage of deaths from pneumonia and influenza is at 10%, well above the threshold of 7.1% to consider it an epidemic. Most of the increase in deaths is from pneumonia.
Apparently, COVID-19 cases in prisons, jails and nursing homes aren't being tracked. Yet these are all areas where the disease is more likely to spread. Also, for nursing homes, where the mortality rate is expected to be very high.
I've been paying attention. I haven't seen any attempts to promote this as Armageddon. What I've been seeing, for about 10 weeks, people saying this is something we need to take seriously. I've also seen a lot of people saying it's no big deal.
Now, at least one person who said frequently, for several weeks that it was nothing to worry about, that it was all under control, is blaming the WHO for not stressing how serious it was.
Draw your own conclusions.
Did you not understand what I said? Did you not read what I was responding to? The morgues are overflowing! And people still try to say "this is no worse than the flu. " Let me repeat that one more time, the goddamn morgues are over-fucking-flowing! J That is the only number that matters! That is the only evidence of a mortality rate you need. That is a verifiable fact, not an estimate or a guess. It is unprecedented since the Spanish Flu pandemic. There is no comparing the results to the seasonal flu. I don't care how many have it! Just about everyone comes into contact with the flu every year. If the flue was killing people like this then the morgues would be overflowing every year.The morgues in New York have been overflowing since the Civil War.
Elvis 2008
04-12-20, 04:24
And the fact that we have no natural immunity by way of antibodies. Only the other defenses we all have. Getting an active case depends on being exposed to it, may depend to some extent on how much of the virus we were exposed to, and how our body handles it.I know you didn't write this Zeos, but the whole idea that the body does not have immunity to this is absurd. When you talk about war against a virus, antibodies specific to the virus are like sharpshooters. Of course, your body has generalized immune systems (machine guns, nukes ETC) that fights all kinds of things. In fact, when you look at the blood of the people with the disease, there is a very characteristic pattern of what white blood cells are used to fight off the infection and which ones are high and low.
And like in any war, you are fighting the enemy. You have to worry about how much of the virus there is, how it is being transported, how it is being fed, how it adapts ETC.
In fact, like in a war, there is also friendly fire. In fact, it is the body's own immune system attacking itself that may be the biggest issue with the virus. Plaquenil or hydroxychlorquine is used for lupus because it LOWERS immunity. Lupus is when the body attacks its own soft tissue. So hydroxychloroquine might work by lowering the friendly fire killing people.
People promoting we have no immunity are being paid off by vaccine companies or saying that we need antibody certificates to travel are full of shit and trying to cash in. That is a ridiculous, simplistic concept. Those are the fake "experts", and they have been touting their own horn throughout. Believe them if you want.
In any case we do know lots about how it spreads. And we know from following chains of infection (in some countries or areas they still know the source of every infection) what it takes to spread it. And, when you get people infected with it out interacting with other people it spreads. If they stay apart, and don't spread it through contaminating surfaces it does not spread. At least so little chance that it doesn't matter.
And doing those things works. There are countries and areas where it is not being spread at all, and new cases are all travelers coming in from other places.Do you see the difference between me and the "experts"? I do not know anything. I suspect. The "experts" know, but go back and read my posts early on and what I predicted and tell me where I was wrong. I mentioned plateau before anyone else did. I said be careful saying that this is way worse than a bad flu season. So you can find the virus on plastic? How much does it take to infect someone? How is he spread? How does it hide itself from the immune system? There is so much more than "Hey, you can detect this on plastic. ".
I know you think these "experts" are to be trusted but I verify what they say and a lot of what they say does not match up with the data, and they are talking in their own self-interest.
Dcrist0527
04-12-20, 04:25
... That is the only number that matters! .... I don't care how many have it! With respect, I guess I'm just more curious. Reacting to the morgues in NYC is an (understanbable but) emotional reaction. The morgues do not tell us any factual data about how deadly this is. It doesn't tell us why. Or how. It's a sad story. But it's void of facts.
You were the one that threw out a mortality rate. I explained why that number was useless.
Personally, I'm not shocked that NYC, LA, and other dense cities are exploding. As others have pointed out, it is highly contagious. So cities that have superior and heavily-used mass transit and other community norms will see higher numbers. But we don't have a clue how many people have it. Therefore, any mortality rate is worthless. And we should be wary of those who claim it to be a valuable metric.
Elvis 2008
04-12-20, 04:27
Another factor is the timing. There are several news reports comparing New York to California. Some thought California might have overreacted when the lock down was announced but so far California is doing better with a larger population.I will throw something else out Nounce. Maybe California was hit with corona virus waaaay earlier than anyone else, and it was not picked up.
Elvis 2008
04-12-20, 04:44
Did you not understand what I said? Did you not read what I was responding to? The morgues are overflowing! And people still try to say "this is no worse than the flu. " Let me repeat that one more time, the goddamn morgues are over-fucking-flowing! J That is the only number that matters! That is the only evidence of a mortality rate you need. That is a verifiable fact, not an estimate or a guess. It is unprecedented since the Spanish Flu pandemic. There is no comparing the results to the seasonal flu. I don't care how many have it! Just about everyone comes into contact with the flu every year. If the flue was killing people like this then the morgues would be overflowing every year.Sigh. How can the morgues be overflowing when there were more people dying at this time last year than this year?
https://www.zerohedge.com/health/covid-19-saving-lives
The data with regards to number of people dying does not support the notion that morgues are overflowing and given that people are banned from going to hospitals, I would question the motives of anyone reporting it.
You guys really need to be careful and question and verify so much of the stuff that is being put out there. The media has been caught lying several times already.
https://www.vox.com/covid-19-coronavirus-treatment-prevention-cure-vaccines/2020/4/11/21217693/coronavirus-treatments-hydroxychloroquine-remdesivir-side-effects-covid-19-studies
"On a less optimistic note, France's drug-safety agency has released data indicating that hydroxychloroquine, the anti-malaria drug Trump has pushed as a potential miracle drug for treating Covid-19, appears to have serious side effects on the heart when used for Covid-19 patients, and should be used under medical supervision. The report details 43 cases of "heart incidents" tied to hydroxychloroquine. ".
Keep popping those "Trump pills" as long as you don't mind a "heart incident. ".Haha, imagine that, a news article on the Vox site condemning Trump.
Haha, imagine that, a news article on the Vox site condemning Trump.I've seen reports on many different sites, citing several sources on the so-called "Trump pills" (I'm only using that tag because I'm too lazy to check the spelling of the antibiotic).
The scientific consensus is they warrant further study. Initial reports show they work well for some, do nothing at all for some and for a few, they are potentially fatal.
If the flue was killing people like this then the morgues would be overflowing every yearThis virus has a speed that is more deadly. I think it will be much clearer if the comparison is using daily death rate.
YippieKayay
04-12-20, 10:37
Haha, imagine that, a news article on the Vox site condemning Trump.What does that have to do with anything? It's a properly sourced article. You can actually follow the links all the way to article at the French drug agency: https://www.ansm.sante.fr/S-informer/Actualite/Medicaments-utilises-chez-les-patients-atteints-du-COVID-19-une-surveillance-renforcee-des-effets-indesirables-Point-d-information.
Dcrist0527
04-12-20, 16:09
This virus has a speed that is more deadly. I think it will be much clearer if the comparison is using daily death rate.First, the speed, or said differently, contagiousness, of this virus really has nothing to do with lethality. Early reports show somewhere between 15% and 50% may have contracted the virus. I take those numbers with a grain of salt. But the speed of spread is almost irrelevant to the mortality.
Second, the daily death rate would absolutely be a great metric. But only if we had an accurate denominator. Fact: we are not testing every suspected case. That inflates the rate. In some instances, only those with serious health issues are being tested. Of course that inflates the mortality rate even more! Even the alarmist, Dr. Fauci says that the mortality rate is probably below 1%. And even the worst projections and models agree. We were told without any mitigation, without any social distancing, US deaths could be as high as 2 million. That was an outrageous prediction but let's take it for what it's worth. In a country of 328 million, that's a 0.6% of the population. A far cry from the 4, 5, 10% rates the alarmists will throw at us.
Mojo Bandit
04-12-20, 20:36
Sigh. How can the morgues be overflowing when there were more people dying at this time last year than this year?
https://www.zerohedge.com/health/covid-19-saving-lives
The data with regards to number of people dying does not support the notion that morgues are overflowing and given that people are banned from going to hospitals, I would question the motives of anyone reporting it.
You guys really need to be careful and question and verify so much of the stuff that is being put out there. The media has been caught lying several times already.The the people who run the morgues do not give a fuck what numbers a website like zerohedge is publishing- jesus fucking christ. They do not give a fuck because they are not living speculation they are living reality. No more people are dying than died last year? I call bullshit! I have never seen bullshit fly so hard and fast into the face of reality. Do you think they went out and staged interviews with morgues and the people who run funeral homes who filled their establishments with mannequins? And they all staged a big lie? One funeral home director was a grown man crying when he said he had to put his own cousin on ice at an alternative site because of no space. I am standing watching people get soaking wet and your quoting a blog that says it is not raining. You need to know when you are being propagandized. Can you not tell the difference between the propagandized tilted numbers and the hard empirical facts of piles of bodies? Do you even have a clue of how it sounds to a sane person when I tell you that the morgues and funeral homes are turning people away. And you for some unfathomable reason ask "how can the morgues be overflowing?" They are and the state of denial does not change the state of reality.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SypvzstNsjc
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lOhAiIYYZNo
https://www.forbes.com/sites/pascaledavies/2020/03/24/ice-rink-in-spain-becomes-makeshift-morgue-as-coronavirus-cases-surge/#606a9c554d8b
https://www.foxnews.com/world/spain-coronavirus-senior-homes-investigation-ice-rink
https://www.timesofisrael.com/record-627-deaths-in-italy-military-vehicles-said-used-to-transport-bodies/
https://abc7ny.com/funeral-homes-morgues-coronavirus-nyc-deaths/6073482/
https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article241800591.html
Elvis 2008
04-12-20, 21:19
The the people who run the morgues do not give a fuck what numbers a website like zerohedge is publishing- jesus fucking christ.The numbers quoted in the article were from the CDC.
From one of your articles, "Eighty-five refrigerated trucks have been ordered from the military to hold the dead. The trucks are due in New York by the middle of April.
FEMA has requested that the Defense Department make available 100,000 body bags to assist state health agencies with mortuary affairs. The request comes as the White House revealed this week that as many as 240,000 Americans could die from the coronavirus. "
And now we are down to 60,000 estimated dead.
Coronavirus makes about 20% of the cases of common flu. I have already said that this was an extremely contagious variety.
You do understand the government is scaring the shit out of everyone to get them to comply with social distancing right? And that the media is an extension of government and reports what the government wants to be put out there? You are not going to find anyone who says that the death rate for this is on par with seasonal flu be on TV and not being made fun of. Well, maybe someone will quote numbers now that Dr. Fauci has revised the expected deaths downwards.
And if I were in government, I would be doing the same thing as to what is being done. Exaggerate the number, scare everyone, and pat the media on the head for following our directive. Then compliment myself when the numbers were better than projected. Then get myself ready for a medals and proclamations of being a hero in the media. I can see it now.
Elvis 2008
04-12-20, 21:57
https://www.politico.com/states/new-york/albany/story/2020/04/03/new-york-considers-loosening-requirements-for-funeral-directors-as-bodies-pile-up-1271316
I think you do not get what I said. The virus is very contagious, but it is not more deadly than the flu. That means you are going to have a lot more deaths at once versus being spread out over a several month period.
As far as the morgues filling up, that is a government thing. The government, in this case the state of New York, limited the number of services that funeral homes can have. It also limited the number of hours a crematory could be in operation. Per this article, you have had New York go from less than 30 deaths per week to 100. You can burn a body in two hours or less. That is 10 per day per machine, and they have at least four machines. They can also get portable crematories if necessary. The problem is that there are paperwork issues. Cause of death has to be established via death certificate before a body can be cremated, but the capacity to handle all the bodies so they do not overflow is there.
By the way, there have been people looking at overflowing hospitals in NYC and for these famed refrigerated trucks and cannot find them. This like the "we are running out of ventilators" is just more hysteria.
I actually had health care personnel in my area ***** because their hours are being cut back because all elective procedures have been banned. The hospitals in my area are less full than they have been in years.
The the people who run the morgues do not give a fuck what numbers a website like zerohedge is publishing- jesus fucking christ. They do not give a fuck because they are not living speculation they are living reality. No more people are dying than died last year? I call bullshit! I have never seen bullshit fly so hard and fast into the face of reality. Do you think they went out and staged interviews with morgues and the people who run funeral homes who filled their establishments with mannequins? And they all staged a big lie? One funeral home director was a grown man crying when he said he had to put his own cousin on ice at an alternative site because of no space. I am standing watching people get soaking wet and your quoting a blog that says it is not raining. You need to know when you are being propagandized. Can you not tell the difference between the propagandized tilted numbers and the hard empirical facts of piles of bodies? Do you even have a clue of how it sounds to a sane person when I tell you that the morgues and funeral homes are turning people away. And you for some unfathomable reason ask "how can the morgues be overflowing?" They are and the state of denial does not change the state of reality.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SypvzstNsjc
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lOhAiIYYZNo
https://www.forbes.com/sites/pascaledavies/2020/03/24/ice-rink-in-spain-becomes-makeshift-morgue-as-coronavirus-cases-surge/#606a9c554d8b
https://www.foxnews.com/world/spain-coronavirus-senior-homes-investigation-ice-rink
https://www.timesofisrael.com/record-627-deaths-in-italy-military-vehicles-said-used-to-transport-bodies/
https://abc7ny.com/funeral-homes-morgues-coronavirus-nyc-deaths/6073482/
https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article241800591.htmlZerohedge is an investment blog in Bulgaria. It appears to be completely run be a small group of Bulgarians, from Bulgaria. I can only assume they give good investment advice. I don't expect they have a large group of investigative reporters working in the US. It appears they have no investigative reporters whatsoever. The best they can do is report what they pick up from other sources.
And there's the problem. Which sources do they choose? What is their agenda? For all its faults, at least the mainstream media agenda is simple: Sell Viagra. Number one priority is satisfy the advertisers.
But a bearish, libertarian, Bulgarian investment blog? Probably not getting a lot of advertising dollars from the pharmaceutical companies. What's their angle?
First, the speed, or said differently, contagiousness, of this virus really has nothing to do with lethality. Early reports show somewhere between 15% and 50% may have contracted the virus. I take those numbers with a grain of salt. But the speed of spread is almost irrelevant to the mortality.
Second, the daily death rate would absolutely be a great metric. But only if we had an accurate denominator. Fact: we are not testing every suspected case. That inflates the rate. In some instances, only those with serious health issues are being tested. Of course that inflates the mortality rate even more! Even the alarmist, Dr. Fauci says that the mortality rate is probably below 1%. And even the worst projections and models agree. We were told without any mitigation, without any social distancing, US deaths could be as high as 2 million. That was an outrageous prediction but let's take it for what it's worth. In a country of 328 million, that's a 0.6% of the population. A far cry from the 4, 5, 10% rates the alarmists will throw at us.You make it too complicated. All you need is the number of daily deaths caused by the virus based on a population in a region, for example, per 10 k residents in NY or NYC. You may ask, what about under counting? My reply is that it does not matter if this is only a discussion on how deadly it is.
Mojo Bandit
04-13-20, 00:07
We were told without any mitigation, without any social distancing, US deaths could be as high as 2 million. That was an outrageous prediction but let's take it for what it's worth. In a country of 328 million, that's a 0.6% of the population. A far cry from the 4, 5, 10% rates the alarmists will throw at us.I knew when all this started that people would later make claims about what "might have happen" but we will never know because with few exceptions we have all been social distancing.
Mojo Bandit
04-13-20, 00:12
You do understand the government is scaring the shit out of everyone to get them to comply with social distancing right? No I don't. Because I am in constant contact with personal friends and family that are doctors and researchers who work in private practices and for corporations who all say the same thing that the government is saying.
But I am done responding you. I laid down the indisputable facts and you tried to dispute them with confabulation and distortion. So I am going to let you answer this one question and then everyone who is sane and reasonable will make their own determination as to the veracity of information that you. This is a simple yes or no question. Are the people in these videos and news stories all lying? Yes or No?
https://time.com/5814918/new-york-funeral-home/
https://nypost.com/2020/03/31/nyc-morgues-cemeteries-overwhelmed-amid-coronavirus-official/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7IVCYEI0RyA
https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/01/us/coronavirus-new-york-cases-funeral-homes/index.html
https://www.newsday.com/news/health/coronavirus/morgues-coronavirus-1.43703606
Anyone has an educated guess on when can we return to Medellin? I'm guess is that they might let business people in first before they let the tourists back in. Its time to applying for a business visa.
Anyone has an educated guess on when can we return to Medellin? I'm guess is that they might let business people in first before they let the tourists back in. Its time to applying for a business visa.I have no idea, but do know that Hong Kong and Japan are letting people in, but that is after being tested for COVID 19 and in addition being quarantined for 14 days at least in Hong Kong. In Japan, people arriving have been waiting up to two days at the airport for test results and sleeping in card-boxes provided at the Airport and having to pay for them as well which also includes snacks and beverages. So I believe Colombia will follow suit with testing protocols, but it may not be for months after the Country has been taken out of lock-down and back to whatever the "new normal" is.
Anyone has an educated guess on when can we return to Medellin? I'm guess is that they might let business people in first before they let the tourists back in. Its time to applying for a business visa.What's interesting is AA now has flights scheduled to fly MDE, CLO, and BOG everyday starting May 7th.
As well as to Săo Paulo, Santiago Chile and BA.
Interesting.
YippieKayay
04-13-20, 05:11
What's interesting is AA now has flights scheduled to fly MDE, CLO, and BOG everyday starting May 7th.
As well as to So Paulo, Santiago Chile and BA.
Interesting.They will just cancel the flight on you if they can't do it when the day comes.
What's interesting is AA now has flights scheduled to fly MDE, CLO, and BOG everyday starting May 7th.
As well as to So Paulo, Santiago Chile and BA.
Interesting.You can book on several airlines on those days. I think they just go by what is already announced by the government. It probably is subjected to changes.
You can book on several airlines on those days. I think they just go by what is already announced by the government. It probably is subjected to changes.Yes, true, however, I have amigos in the business, and they are putting these flights on their work schedules.
Of course the flights could still cancel, however, its a bit more solid info when they are actually adding the flights to flight crew schedules.
Seems rather soon to me as well, however, Im hoping.
Time will tell.
I'll be in Cartagena this summer, I'll be sure to update this thread.
Yes, true, however, I have amigos in the business, and they are putting these flights on their work schedules.
Of course the flights could still cancel, however, its a bit more solid info when they are actually adding the flights to flight crew schedules.
Seems rather soon to me as well, however, Im hoping.
Time will tell.That't good to know. Thanks.
What's interesting is AA now has flights scheduled to fly MDE, CLO, and BOG everyday starting May 7th.
As well as to So Paulo, Santiago Chile and BA.
Interesting.The Colombian government has banned entry of all foreigners into the country until May 31. Maybe AA thinks there are enough Colombia citizens to warrant the flights. Or, possibly, the government has revised the ban issued on March 16.
YippieKayay
04-13-20, 17:10
The Colombian government has banned entry of all foreigners into the country until May 31. Maybe AA thinks there are enough Colombia citizens to warrant the flights. Or, possibly, the government has revised the ban issued on March 16.As far as I know even citizens aren't allowed back. It's everyone.
Those flights get sold so the airline makes some money. Then you get a cancellation and credit.
The Colombian government has banned entry of all foreigners into the country until May 31. Maybe AA thinks there are enough Colombia citizens to warrant the flights. Or, possibly, the government has revised the ban issued on March 16.I heard the May 31 date was for land borders only. And I can't believe they are going to allow anyone in short of COVID testing like in Japan and Hong Kong upon arrival. And I have heard COPA is selling tickets from Panama City to MDE beginning in May. I just don't see this happening, so sounds like the airlines are just trying to generate some cash and issue vouchers for future travel as previously mentioned.
I heard the May 31 date was for land borders only. And I can't believe they are going to allow anyone in short of COVID testing like in Japan and Hong Kong upon arrival. And I have heard COPA is selling tickets from Panama City to MDE beginning in May. I just don't see this happening, so sounds like the airlines are just trying to generate some cash and issue vouchers for future travel as previously mentioned.I'm willing to sleep in an airport quarantine room for 14 days and pay them a handsome amount of money, as long as I can get back into the country.
Elvis 2008
04-13-20, 21:29
So I am going to let you answer this one question and then everyone who is sane and reasonable will make their own determination as to the veracity of information that you. This is a simple yes or no question. Are the people in these videos and news stories all lying? Yes or No?Of course not, they are presenting one side of the story as are you. This virus is awful, the greatest threat in the history of mankind!! There is no room in the discussion that it may not be as bad as you and they say.
No I don't. Because I am in constant contact with personal friends and family that are doctors and researchers who work in private practices and for corporations who all say the same thing that the government is saying.Right, that is why the death number has been revised downwards from 240,000 to 60,000. What is everyone saying today? Yes, I know all about how terrible the virus can be and what it does to the human body. I also know how terrible AIDS can be. I also know that some scumbags hyped up the threat for personal gain, and we have to make sure the reaction to the virus is not worse than the virus itself.
Elvis 2008
04-13-20, 21:32
Anyone has an educated guess on when can we return to Medellin? I'm guess is that they might let business people in first before they let the tourists back in. Its time to applying for a business visa.1% in April, 50% by May, 90% by June, 99% by July IMO. I bought tickets for late June. I scored a one way flight on Spirit for $58.
YippieKayay
04-13-20, 21:38
1% in April, 50% by May, 90% by June, 99% by July IMO. I bought tickets for late June. I scored a one way flight on Spirit for $58.When they go bankrupt send them another $58.
That's a very low margin business you realize that? You literally just burned $58.
Mojo Bandit
04-13-20, 21:42
.The reason that the numbers are down is because of social distancing! We are doing exactly what the models predicted we would do through social distancing.
But point of fact is that You did not answer my question! This is my blog and until you answer my question I should delete anything you post. It is disrespectful not to answer the question. Your kind of propaganda can put peoples lives at risk. The Goddamn Morgues in New York City are OVer Capacity for Dead People. That is all the proof anyone with more than two brains cells and no political agenda needs to see how deadly this virus is. So please answer my question so there is a clear picture of your state of denial.
This is a simple yes or no question. Are the people in these videos and news stories all lying? Yes or No?
https://time.com/5814918/new-york-funeral-home/
https://nypost.com/2020/03/31/nyc-mo...irus-official/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7IVCYEI0RyA
https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/01/us/co...mes/index.html
https://www.newsday.com/news/health/...rus-1.43703606
Mojo Bandit
04-13-20, 21:46
Photos show bodies piled up and stored in vacant rooms at Detroit hospital.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/13/health/detroit-hospital-bodies-coronavirus-trnd/index.html
Mojo Bandit
04-13-20, 21:52
Hospitals overflowing with bodies as coronavirus deaths surge in New York City.
https://wgntv.com/news/coronavirus/hospitals-overflowing-with-bodies-as-virus-deaths-surge-in-new-york-city/
Mojo Bandit
04-13-20, 22:00
"I thought I would never see that many body bags in my life, and I'm seeing them now," said Arsenio Lopez, Vietnam veteran and the director of the Borinquen Memorial Funeral Home in Bushwick, Brooklyn.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/i-thought-i-would-never-see-that-many-body-bags-in-my-life-nyc-funeral-directors-on-dealing-with-coronavirus-deaths-2020-04-07
Dcrist0527
04-13-20, 22:57
The reason that the numbers are down is because of social distancing! We are doing exactly what the models predicted we would do through social distancing.Mojo,
I know the question wasn't for me. And I know this is "your blog". So with respect, two weeks ago, did you hear any models predicting 60,000? I didn't. In fact, I don't know that any model has been close, and that's my only point. If these data scientists and modelers are the best we have, and they miss their estimates by 300% and 400%, well that's just not good enough. You are absolutely right, shuttering everyone in their homes 24/7 led to lower numbers. But the models should have accounted for that, no? Instead, you have outrageously high numbers thrown out for one reason: to scare people. That does no one any good. Especially considering we're still in the same exact situation as when we started this shutdown. No vaccine. No therapeutic. The only thing that has changed is the credibility of the "experts" that were 400% off.
I'd add that it was Fauci himself that endorsed that 200 K figure just two weeks ago.
"I thought I would never see that many body bags in my life, and I'm seeing them now," said Arsenio Lopez, Vietnam veteran and the director of the Borinquen Memorial Funeral Home in Bushwick, Brooklyn.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/i-thought-i-would-never-see-that-many-body-bags-in-my-life-nyc-funeral-directors-on-dealing-with-coronavirus-deaths-2020-04-07If this is all a bunch of deception, as has been claimed, why are the hospitals literally throwing money away?
I have a sister who worked for years as a travel nurse. When hospitals have critical staffing shortages, they contact a travel nurse company and pay for a temp. It's expensive. Not only do the nurses get paid at a much higher rate than the regular nurses, they also get per diem. For a nurse willing to travel and live frugally, it's a way to see the world and make a lot of money.
NYC hospitals have brought in a lot of travel nurses. With the per diem in NYC, they're paying easily double for each nurse. Yet, supposedly they're completely unnecessary. I know the nurses are there. I know they're working lots of hours. I get daily reports.
I can only assume the hospitals are paying their staff nurses to stay away, so they can pay the travel nurses double in order to pretend there's a problem. I just can't figure out why.
Certainly it can't be because they have a much heavier than normal case load. I guess only a couple of guys in Bulgaria know the answer.
On a lighter note, I had a virtual visit with my rheumatologist today. Other than a few questions she just had me show my hands and demonstrate my range of motion. She's doing almost all her work via video chat from home.
I bet she's really happy she's not a proctologist.
It is "if" they go bankrupt, not "when". The possibility is there and I think it is much more likely to happen to a marginal carrier like Spirit than a mainstream carrier like Delta, United, or American. You probably know Spirit has been running charter humanitarian flights the past several days. The next one is scheduled for April 16. So yes, if Spirit goes bankrupt the $58 is highly likely to be lost along with any accumulated frequent flyer miles. I think it is also likely the cost of flights will increase because of higher demand and lower supply after the virus is under control.
When they go bankrupt send them another $58.
That's a very low margin business you realize that? You literally just burned $58.
Elvis 2008
04-14-20, 11:56
The reason that the numbers are down is because of social distancing! We are doing exactly what the models predicted we would do through social distancing.
But point of fact is that You did not answer my question! This is my blog and until you answer my question I should delete anything you post. It is disrespectful not to answer the question. Your kind of propaganda can put peoples lives at risk.I answered your question. I said of course, they are not lying. They are presenting one point of view that supports the official narrative.
Mojo, you remind me of a Democrat I know. Is the reason you are freaking out about all this is that you can blame Trump and Republicans for freaking all these deaths? Because this is the same thing that Democrats do with global warming. Republicans are so stupid they are not listening to the scientists.
Yes, Corona virus attacks the lungs, and it is horrible and grisly and nasty and so is lung cancer. The only difference is you can blame the individual with lung cancer and smoking, but this is new and terrible and somebody needs to be to blamed. Why not Trump? It was the Trump virus after all. That is what some members of the media called it.
How can what I post be propaganda when I have said over and over it is just one guy's opinion? My opinion is that nobody knows nothing. You say that social distancing is working. Do you have any objective proof outside of consensus?
Without objective and verifiable facts, there is no difference between politics and science. To prove cause and effect is very, very hard. Again, I am posting here with the assumption that people have the brains to know what is being told to them and why versus what is my opinion of the truth, and the reason I felt comfortable doing so here versus just about everywhere else is that people here have not bought the government's official view on prostitution. I thought that people here question the official government narrative.
A guy who is fucking hookers is going to start shaming others? Really?
By promoting men seeing hookers, you are promoting disease and AIDS leading to their deaths of themselves, their wives, and are reeking havoc on the health of the entire world. How dare you!
Lighten up Francis. It is a hooker board.
BodyAnybody
04-14-20, 12:09
Of course not, they are presenting one side of the story as are you. This virus is awful, the greatest threat in the history of mankind!! There is no room in the discussion that it may not be as bad as you and they say.
Right, that is why the death number has been revised downwards from 240,000 to 60,000. What is everyone saying today? Yes, I know all about how terrible the virus can be and what it does to the human body. I also know how terrible AIDS can be. I also know that some scumbags hyped up the threat for personal gain, and we have to make sure the reaction to the virus is not worse than the virus itself.One thing that people are ignoring is that the infrastructure that is currently being stressed is almost always near capacity by design. A region has exactly the numbers of funeral homes that average death rates can support. There are no Maytag Man funeral directors sitting around waiting to work, because they would be out of business very quickly.
Its true same with hospitals. We don't have thousands of empty hospital beds and idle staff waiting for an emergency, because our systems cannot afford to maintain extra capacity.
What does this mean? It means a few percent increase in deaths, especially in a large city is going to look very grim.
I can only assume the hospitals are paying their staff nurses to stay away, so they can pay the travel nurses double in order to pretend there's a problem. I just can't figure out why.
Good post. IMO this whole shit show about the coronavirus has been blown completely out of proportion. The "experts" keep revising the numbers down, before you know it, it's going to be less lethal than the common flu, wait, it already is.
What concerns me more, is why in the hell have they shut down the Global economy over this shit? Is there something their not telling us? A Giant Meteor is coming? Or another great depression? Did the Federal Reserve give us a clue? Yes they did. Skip to 2:45 in this video.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LPRMdCSFI8E
If the Federal Reserve projections are true, then you can start panicking.
Mojo,
I know the question wasn't for me. And I know this is "your blog". So with respect, two weeks ago, did you hear any models predicting 60,000? I didn't. In fact, I don't know that any model has been close, and that's my only point. If these data scientists and modelers are the best we have, and they miss their estimates by 300% and 400%, well that's just not good enough. You are absolutely right, shuttering everyone in their homes 24/7 led to lower numbers. But the models should have accounted for that, no? Instead, you have outrageously high numbers thrown out for one reason: to scare people. That does no one any good. Especially considering we're still in the same exact situation as when we started this shutdown. No vaccine. No therapeutic. The only thing that has changed is the credibility of the "experts" that were 400% off.
I'd add that it was Fauci himself that endorsed that 200 K figure just two weeks ago.Sigh. I think you missed the many explanations of what modelling is. It is taking what is currently known and projecting into the future. I do models as well. At one point it looked like a million deaths in the US was a reasonable outcome. Based on the numbers at that time. Of course that assumes that the growth in cases and fatalities continued along the mathematical (exponential) growth curve. Then you try to account for changes in behavior. And with this disease that is all important. Because it could literally be brought to 0 in around 3 to 4 weeks. If no one literally was in contact with anyone else. And of course that cannot happen. So. All of those doing predictive models always said that it depended on behavior. Physical distancing and isolating, thorough hand washing, not touching your face, all the ways to stop the virus from being spread. And everyone knew from other countries experience that this could change the outcome from whatever model you were using at the time. I don't think the credibility of the experts is in question at all. I heard their explanations, I heard many many explanations from different models. And they all said the same, that the outcome would really depend on what people did.
So, enough people took it seriously that the outcome is better than predicted a few weeks ago. I think that's a good outcome. Too bad it didn't happen sooner.
Good post. IMO this whole shit show about the coronavirus has been blown completely out of proportion. The "experts" keep revising the numbers down, before you know it, it's going to be less lethal than the common flu, wait, it already is..The reality is, in a couple of years, when this has all been figured out, this may be the conclusion. And what muddles things now is the proportion on the people dying, some of which might of been close to dying anyways, instead of within a few weeks of being infected, versus within a few years. As an example, they will have to study how many people who would of normally died from cardiovascular disease during the pandemic.
It's one big mess for sure, causing a lot of pain and misery around the globe.
Sigh. I think you missed the many explanations of what modelling is. It is taking what is currently known and projecting into the future. I do models as well. At one point it looked like a million deaths in the US was a reasonable outcome. Based on the numbers at that time. Of course that assumes that the growth in cases and fatalities continued along the mathematical (exponential) growth curve. Then you try to account for changes in behavior. And with this disease that is all important. Because it could literally be brought to 0 in around 3 to 4 weeks. If no one literally was in contact with anyone else. And of course that cannot happen. So. All of those doing predictive models always said that it depended on behavior. Physical distancing and isolating, thorough hand washing, not touching your face, all the ways to stop the virus from being spread. And everyone knew from other countries experience that this could change the outcome from whatever model you were using at the time. I don't think the credibility of the experts is in question at all. I heard their explanations, I heard many many explanations from different models. And they all said the same, that the outcome would really depend on what people did.
So, enough people took it seriously that the outcome is better than predicted a few weeks ago. I think that's a good outcome. Too bad it didn't happen sooner.In addition to model being constantly adjusted because of new information, most models will present a range of numbers. The range will shrink over time and the accuracy will increase because the scientists are also in a learning stage as this event does not happen often.
BodyAnybody
04-14-20, 18:24
The reality is, in a couple of years, when this has all been figured out, this may be the conclusion. And what muddles things now is the proportion on the people dying, some of which might of been close to dying anyways, instead of within a few weeks of being infected, versus within a few years. As an example, they will have to study how many people who would of normally died from cardiovascular disease during the pandemic.
It's one big mess for sure, causing a lot of pain and misery around the globe.It will never be acknowledged to have been overblown because the filthy smearmerchants of mass media will never admit to stoking panic in the public for ratings.
Dcrist0527
04-14-20, 18:51
Sigh. I think you missed the many explanations of what modelling is. It is taking what is currently known and projecting into the future. I do models as well. At one point it looked like a million deaths in the US was a reasonable outcome. Based on the numbers at that time. Of course that assumes that the growth in cases and fatalities continued along the mathematical (exponential) growth curve. Then you try to account for changes in behavior. And with this disease that is all important. Because it could literally be brought to 0 in around 3 to 4 weeks. If no one literally was in contact with anyone else. And of course that cannot happen. So. All of those doing predictive models always said that it depended on behavior. Physical distancing and isolating, thorough hand washing, not touching your face, all the ways to stop the virus from being spread. And everyone knew from other countries experience that this could change the outcome from whatever model you were using at the time. I don't think the credibility of the experts is in question at all. I heard their explanations, I heard many many explanations from different models. And they all said the same, that the outcome would really depend on what people did.
So, enough people took it seriously that the outcome is better than predicted a few weeks ago. I think that's a good outcome. Too bad it didn't happen sooner.I am very familiar with modeling. I work in a "big data" job. So when I see how far off models were, and worse yet, when our so called experts react with such drastic measures to those erroneous projections, (or at a minimum, promoting only worst case scenarios) yes, I take issue with the messaging.
When you have the preminent infectious disease expert in the world going on TV saying 200 K Americans will die, that is meant for one reason. And to his credit, he told us that reason weeks ago. He wants to overreact. He thinks it is a good thing.
People like that absolutely need to be at the table. His knowledge is unquestioned in his field. But shutting down the entire global economy should not be his call. There have to be many people at that table. But at the federal level, state level, local level, our decision making has been driven almost exclusively by the medical professionals without regard for unintended consequences. In two weeks time, 16 million people have lost their income. And their immediate prospects are incredibly bleak. And you can be sure millions will be added with each subsequent week. This isn't about wall street for them. Soon, it will be about meeting housing necessities, finding a way to provide food for their families. 16 million. And growing quickly.
This does not mean I don't appreciate the devastation this virus has caused. This does not mean I doubt NY hospitals and morgues are overwhelmed. This does not mean those that have lost loved ones don't feel devastation. But our cure, that's been adopted virtually globally, will come with a nearly unimaginable pricetag that we cannot even comprehend right now.
Without objective and verifiable facts, there is no difference between politics and science. Although it's still early this will almost certainly be the most idiotic statement I will read today. It's even multi-tiered idiocy, which raises the difficulty rating. I suppose congratulations are in order.
Let's start with facts. Facts exist. They are unable to be objective or subjective. There are no alternative facts. Facts have no need to be verifiable because they've already passed every conceivable form of verification before being accepted as facts.
Now on to the "no difference between politics and science" garbage.
Politics is nothing more than a form of social appeasement. We give and take and finagle in order to keep enough people satisfied to achieve objectives. With a war, politics works to maintain the war's popularity while downplaying the costs. The human losses get promoted to heroes and patriots. All to keep the people back home waving the flags.
Science is much simpler. It's a basic toolkit used to find answers. Facts aren't a necessary component. Science doesn't find final answers. It finds better answers. Once an answer is found science is working to learn more about the answer.
Science has no agenda. If there is an agenda, it's not science, it's politics.
Science learned that there was an unexplained increase in pneumonia in Wuhan. So science began looking for answers, and found the coronavirus driving the increase in pneumonia cases. Then science went back to work to find out how it was transmitted, how long it could survive certain conditions and how to combat it. When science gives projections, they are based solely upon what is currently known. It's not based upon popularity, economics or what may be learned tomorrow. Science continues to work looking for better answers.
Politics, that's a different story.
Politics shutdown flights from China. Looks good. We're taking action! Funny thing about viruses, they actually prefer multi-stop flights instead of direct flights. Gives them a chance to meet more, interesting and previously uninfected people. Shutting down flights from China looked like strong action, while it accomplished nothing. There were still flights from China to Europe. Still flights from Europe to the US and the longer transit time allowed more people to be contagious upon arrival, rather than having a 3-5 day cushion.
Politics claims everything is under control, when nothing was being done. Politics prevented any proactive approach, because that makes people nervous. Politics pushes an unproven miracle cure with potentially fatal side effects, because the sheep need a placebo. Politics promises a quick vaccine when science tells us a vaccine could take years or even decades.
Politics tells us to ask questions such as "How many people die from the flu?" Or "Are we sure all these deaths were caused by coronavirus?" Or "What if it's all fake news?
Politics is weighing the costs of ignoring the virus against the economic losses of controlling the spread. Science tells us economic losses are temporary, death isn't.
If I am looking for investment advice, I might hit you up. If I'm looking for having va few SBs, I may have questions for you.
But when it comes to science, I'm better off asking my auto mechanic. At least he knows he has no idea what he's talking about.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K0SB8DyhvGg
Mojo Bandit
04-14-20, 21:29
I answered your question. I said of course, they are not lying. They are presenting one point of view that supports the official narrative.
Mojo, you remind me of a Democrat I know. Is the reason you are freaking out about all this is that you can blame Trump and Republicans for freaking all these deaths? Because this is the same thing that Democrats do with global warming. Republicans are so stupid they are not listening to the scientists.
Yes, Corona virus attacks the lungs, and it is horrible and grisly and nasty and so is lung cancer. The only difference is you can blame the individual with lung cancer and smoking, but this is new and terrible and somebody needs to be to blamed. Why not Trump? It was the Trump virus after all. That is what some members of the media called it.
How can what I post be propaganda when I have said over and over it is just one guy's opinion? My opinion is that nobody knows nothing. You say that social distancing is working. Do you have any objective proof outside of consensus?
Without objective and verifiable facts, there is no difference between politics and science. To prove cause and effect is very, very hard. Again, I am posting here with the assumption that people have the brains to know what is being told to them and why versus what is my opinion of the truth, and the reason I felt comfortable doing so here versus just about everywhere else is that people here have not bought the government's official view on prostitution. I thought that people here question the official government narrative.
A guy who is fucking hookers is going to start shaming others? Really?
By promoting men seeing hookers, you are promoting disease and AIDS leading to their deaths of themselves, their wives, and are reeking havoc on the health of the entire world. How dare you!
Lighten up Francis. It is a hooker board.Nice how you try to change the subject to prostitution and tell all us board members that we are going to give our wives AIDS. You seem to be good at digging up research so have you not dug up the research that tells you what a slim chance there is that a guy will catch AIDS from a woman. But that is not the subject being discussed here.
The subject being discussed here is your assertion that COVID-19 is not more deadly than the Flu! Then when I point out the empirically undeniable evidence that morgues and funeral homes are over capacity which can only be cause by an unprecedented death rate. You say that this is "their side of the story" and they are contributing to a "narrative". All those people died to create a "narrative". Amazing sacrifice on their part.
You said that COVID-19 was no more deadly than the flu. This surge of dead and dying people in the hospitals and morgues of NYC and Detroit, it is not some 'narrative' it is reality. And you are the one making a tragedy political. For the record I am not an ideologue. Ideologues are sheep. Say baa. I know you can not understand this. Ideologues live in a black and white world. I voted for Ronald Reagan, George H Bush, John McCain which is not something a dyed in the wool democrat is going to do. You are making this political with your distortions.
I work in a university research hospital, I am surrounded in my work by medical doctors and PhDs involved in research. I have been sitting in on meetings about this virus since the beginning of February, by March we were having three meetings a day. Some of the content of these meetings was about how to create more and better isolation areas for the patients because of the extreme numbers that we knew were coming. A lot of my family. Siblings and cousins are medical researchers. Some at other universities, some in the pharmaceutical industry. All of them have sat through meetings the same as I have. I have been living in a cloud of information completely divorced from the "media". That is how I know that COVID -19 is, at a minimum 10 times more deadly than the flu. Not to mention I have had co workers succumb to this disease. So yes I get a little "touchy" when people make lite of it. These people that I knew personally had no underlying health conditions.
This is a sad thing to make political. But if you have to than argue about what a fine job of leadership the president is doing. I am not going to argue one way or the other about that. That really is subjective and can be argued but do not argue that the virus is not a threat. That is not an argument from a political view it is a distortion of the facts. In fact I posted an article before that I agreed with that said Governor Dewine of Ohio who is a Republican has probably done a better job than anyone in this thing.
No one in my workplace actually "trusted" numbers coming out of the filter of the Chinese government. But when the thing started to balloon in Italy that's when the numbers started really being crunched. So that's when my organization went on "war" footing and the meetings and a reorganization of whole hospital units started taking place.
The numbers of dying are slowing because of social distancing period. This was predicted. When they say "flatten the curve" , that is what they mean. We as a country went into a shelter in place mode in an unprecedented move to slow this virus- and then the numbers started falling. Then people are going to say - "See it is not that bad" without ever knowing what would have happen had we not all sheltered in place. What we do know is that the social distancing strategy is working. So at this point anyone that is decrying the "experts" is disagreeing with what is evidently working.
Now going back to the political dimensions. That this was not handled well overall from the beginning is not any one person's fault. For example as soon as it was realized that asymptomatic persons who carried the virus could spread it to others, our hospital mandated everpne where some form of mask, the N95 masks were only to be for working with those in isolation because they had tested positive. But in order to decrease the spread through the moisture of breathing but anyone carrying but yet untested. They mandated the wearing of some type of mask. Usually surgical. My point is that this information was not given to the general public for weeks after it was already being practiced in our institution. This was not one person's fault. It was a gross oversight by the "experts" who continued to focus on symptomatic persons.
When it comes to numbers and statistics politicians like to say that there are degrees of how bad a lie is, they are in order of how bad of a lie these: there are "lies" - there are "damn lies" - and there are "statistics". My statistic professor liked to tell this joke: Ask your elementary teacher How much is 2 +2 and they will tell you "2 + 2 is 4. " Ask your high school mathematics teacher how much is 2 +2 and they will answer "absolute 2 plus absolute 2 is absolute 4. " Ask a statistics teacher how much is 2 plus 2 and they will answer "how much do you want it to be?
I get a little touchy yes, but I am not trying to insult anyone when I point out that the deaths have been so great that Italy, Spain, New York, Detroit that they have run out of morgue space that these are not statistics this is a straight up "body count".
You say "and we have to make sure the reaction to the virus is not worse than the virus itself. " So explain to me how to explain to the doctors and the nurses that have been dealing with this, who have lost friends, who some are risking their lives on a daily basis, explain to the people who are piling bodies on ice rinks and into refrigerator cars, explain to the people whose parents are on ice with no way to have a funeral.
Explain exactly what it means when you say "and we have to make sure the reaction to the virus is not worse than the virus itself" because from the perspective of everyone I talk to on a daily basis who are pretty knowledgeable about these kinds of things. What you are saying when you say " we have to make sure the reaction to the virus is not worse than the virus itself" is that we are going to have to let thousands of people die so that the economy starts growing again? Thousands of preventable deaths if fact. At what point in history has any people decided that thousands of people who are not soldiers were going to die to improve the quality of my life?
You may say that I am exaggerating. Maybe even being over dramatic, But then there are all those body bags again -.
https://time.com/5814918/new-york-funeral-home/
https://nypost.com/2020/03/31/nyc-mo...irus-official/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7IVCYEI0RyA
https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/01/us/co...mes/index.html
https://www.newsday.com/news/health/...rus-1.43703606
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SypvzstNsjc
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lOhAiIYYZNo
https://www.forbes.com/sites/pascaledavies/2020/03/24/ice-rink-in-spain-becomes-makeshift-morgue-as-coronavirus-cases-surge/#606 a9 c554 d8 b.
https://www.foxnews.com/world/spain-coronavirus-senior-homes-investigation-ice-rink
https://www.timesofisrael.com/record-627-deaths-in-italy-military-vehicles-said-used-to-transport-bodies/
https://abc7ny.com/funeral-homes-morgues-coronavirus-nyc-deaths/6073482/
https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article241800591.html
Elvis 2008
04-14-20, 21:35
Although it's still early this will almost certainly be the most idiotic statement I will read today. It's even multi-tiered idiocy, which raises the difficulty rating. I suppose congratulations are in order.LOL. This from the guy predicting an 18,000 Dow and 1. 6 Canadian to 1 US dollar. Go back and read what I wrote. I said death wise we would be at the same level as we would with a bad flu.
Just because a scientist saying something does not mean it is scientifically correct. A person should verify their data. Scientists have to be politicians to get funding. People need to understand when there is science behind something (I. E. Facts and data) and when scientists are just winging it. 98% of scientists agree man made global warming is real. So what? Do they have data and facts to support that belief? If they do not, it is politics because scientists are just voting. When I looked up the data, man made global warming was pure bullshit.
When you make projections like 240,000 or a million are going to die in the USA, there is no and was no scientific basis for that. It was politics plain and simple. The data upon which those projections were made was horribly flawed, but as I have said a million times by now, I would have constructed the same models with the same number of deaths based on (and this is the key phrase) POLITICAL considerations. Just because someone is a scientist does not mean they are also not a politician, but it seems like you do not know that and that is why you were so wrong with your projections and mine were so on target.
And yes, I bought call options last week and they have done very well. Thanks for asking.
Mojo Bandit
04-14-20, 21:58
I said death wise we would be at the same level as we would with a bad flu.
.HMM?
https://time.com/5814918/new-york-funeral-home/
https://nypost.com/2020/03/31/nyc-mo...irus-official/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7IVCYEI0RyA
https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/01/us/co...mes/index.html
https://www.newsday.com/news/health/...rus-1.43703606
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SypvzstNsjc
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lOhAiIYYZNo
https://www.forbes.com/sites/pascale...s-cases-surge/#606 a9 c554 d8 be.
https://www.foxnews.com/world/spain-...ation-ice-rink
https://www.timesofisrael.com/record...nsport-bodies/
https://abc7ny.com/funeral-homes-mor...eaths/6073482/
https://www.miamiherald.com/news/cor...241800591.html
People need to understand when there is science behind something (I. E. Facts and data) and when scientists are just winging it. And this is the guy using the obsure Bulgarian investor blog to prove that death rates in the US are down? LOL Keep on pontificating pal. It's certainly a source of amusement.
And this is the guy using the obsure Bulgarian investor blog to prove that death rates in the US are down? LOL Keep on pontificating pal. It's certainly a source of amusement.I wouldn't downgrade Zero Hedge too much and it's definitely not obscure. I work in Trading / Derivatives. Virtually everyone in the industry, which includes some extremely bright people of all political stripes, reads Zero Hedge religiously. While IMO it's overly conspiratorial, it's a very good source of information.
Mojo Bandit
04-15-20, 01:13
I wouldn't downgrade Zero Hedge too much and it's definitely not obscure. I work in Trading / Derivatives. Virtually everyone in the industry, which includes some extremely bright people of all political stripes, reads Zero Hedge religiously. While IMO it's overly conspiratorial, it's a very good source of information.Zerohedge is good for financial information, but I am not going to read the New England Journal of Medicine for investment advice. Ivandjiiski training is finance not epidemiology. That being said, he is no Ray Dalio.
I said death wise we would be at the same level as we would with a bad flu.What year was there a bad flu?
Elvis 2008
04-15-20, 03:11
Nice how you try to change the subject to prostitution and tell all us board members that we are going to give our wives AIDS. You seem to be good at digging up research so have you not dug up the research that tells you what a slim chance there is that a guy will catch AIDS from a woman. But that is not the subject being discussed here.The issue there was you are too serious and engaged in a personal attack saying I was killing people. Only reason to talk about this on a hooker board is to know when we are going to be able to get back to Colombia and fuck the women there.
I have said what my projection was. For all your expertise and belly aching, I have yet to read any predictions from you. I put mine out there.
The subject being discussed here is your assertion that COVID-19 is not more deadly than the Flu!No, I said IMO the deaths due to COVID-19 were not going to be worse than a really bad flu season which in 2017 was 80,000. Now read this part really carefully okay? In fact, I want you repeat it back to me. All the death projections based on our having 240,000 or 1-2 million dead were based on people not changing behaviors, the virus continuing to infect at the same rate, and there being no effective treatments for the virus. I said these Maltusian doom and gloom projections IMO were always wrong, and I think I can say with confidence now looking at the data that they were wrong.
Then when I point out the empirically undeniable evidence that morgues and funeral homes are over capacity which can only be cause by an unprecedented death rate.You say that this is "their side of the story" and they are contributing to a "narrative". All those people died to create a "narrative". I know your side of the story. You pick the places where the virus hits the hardest, claim the funerals are overflowing because of so many dead bodies. Yes, the death rate has tripled in NYC, but if you look at the rest of the country and the USA as a whole, the death rate is down. I provided a link which had a story on Zerohedge quoting CDC statistics. No one bothered to debunk the statistics. Here is the actual paper with data: https://www.scribd.com/document/453827594/COVID-19-UnintendedConsequences.
The other side of the story is that the death rate in 2020 is lower than it has been in the last five years. DON'T BE A LAZY ARROGANT ASS LIKE YOU WERE BEFORE MOJO!! Be a scientist and refute the CDC data in the article!
You are on an anonymous blog going on about credentials and indisputable evidence. I cannot verify your credentials, a flaw in your argument. Your indisputable death rate IS being disputed. You put yourself up as an expert. That is a flaw in logic. You attack the source, another flaw in logic. You attack me, another flaw in logic. They could put your damn picture up as an example in the dictionary of the Dunning-Kruger effect. Stop it!
We will make it real simple. I said that the odds are that we are going to see the flight restrictions stopped in May at 50% and in June at 90%. Put your money where your mouth is and make a prediction. Given how bad you think things are, is it fair to say that you do not think flights resume in 2020?
If you are too gutless to make a prediction, which is how practically all "scientists" react when there is a not a consensus, I will say that you bet flights do not resume in 2020.
Elvis 2008
04-15-20, 03:15
And this is the guy using the obsure Bulgarian investor blog to prove that death rates in the US are down? LOL Keep on pontificating pal. It's certainly a source of amusement.https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect
What year was there a bad flu?Spanish Flu 1918, just 5 years after the FERAL RESERVE took over the United States in 1913.
Initially, it was called the "Kansas Flu" then later, it was changed to the "Spanish Flu". Anyone who has been to Latin America will understand.
During the War economy of WWI, when everybody was working, including kids, the air quality was shit. The skies and rivers were black with coal soot and acid rain.
Everybody had Black Lung. War is Hell.
YippieKayay
04-15-20, 03:29
People like that absolutely need to be at the table. His knowledge is unquestioned in his field. But shutting down the entire global economy should not be his call. There have to be many people at that table. But at the federal level, state level, local level, our decision making has been driven almost exclusively by the medical professionals without regard for unintended consequences. In two weeks time, 16 million people have lost their income. And their immediate prospects are incredibly bleak. And you can be sure millions will be added with each subsequent week. This isn't about wall street for them. Soon, it will be about meeting housing necessities, finding a way to provide food for their families. 16 million. And growing quickly.
If the death count was in the millions the economy would suffer anyway. You think people will go out to eat, and watch a movie when their neighbors are dropping dead? The reason shelter-in-place is the right call is because not doing it would be worse.
Elvis 2008
04-15-20, 03:31
It is "if" they go bankrupt, not "when". The possibility is there and I think it is much more likely to happen to a marginal carrier like Spirit than a mainstream carrier like Delta, United, or American. You probably know Spirit has been running charter humanitarian flights the past several days. The next one is scheduled for April 16. So yes, if Spirit goes bankrupt the $58 is highly likely to be lost along with any accumulated frequent flyer miles.Knowlege, that is a good post.
This just came up today. No, bankruptcy is not possible when the government is handing out cheap loans: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-airlines-treasury-department-reach-deal-billions-bailout-aid.
But this is on ZH so it may not be true. LOL.
For shits and giggles though, I did look at Spirit and was stunned at how solid their balance sheet and profits were. With low fuel prices and cheap loans, the airlines will be fine. It is when the cheap loans are done that there will be issues.
I really have not delved into the airline financials since I bought bonds in 2008 and cleaned up on them, but I did see that Airbus was practically giving planes away with its financing. I would have to check though but my suspicion is that airlines flying Airbus only or mostly planes got favorable lending plans, and I think Spirit and Jetblue are all or nearly all Airbuses.
Elvis 2008
04-15-20, 03:38
Zerohedge is good for financial information, but I am not going to read the New England Journal of Medicine for investment advice. Ivandjiiski training is finance not epidemiology. That being said, he is no Ray Dalio.https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/ray-dalio-pure-alpha-bridgewater-fund-flat-gains-returns-2019-2020-1-1028800764
Ray Dalio's fund saw 0. 5% returns in 2019 as the S&P 500 surged 29%.
You are really hurting my feelings, dude!
Zerohedge is good for financial information, but I am not going to read the New England Journal of Medicine for investment advice. Ivandjiiski training is finance not epidemiology. That being said, he is no Ray Dalio.I was responding to the poster who called it an obscure blog.
Mats Naslund
04-15-20, 03:48
At JjBee62 , at Dcrist0527 and at MojoBandit.
Great discussion, balanced, personal yet neutral. Keep it up, fellas.
... The numbers of dying are slowing because of social distancing period. This was predicted. When they say "flatten the curve" , that is what they mean. We as a country went into a shelter in place mode in an unprecedented move to slow this virus- and then the numbers started falling. Then people are going to say - "See it is not that bad" without ever knowing what would have happen had we not all sheltered in place. What we do know is that the social distancing strategy is working. So at this point anyone that is decrying the "experts" is disagreeing with what is evidently working. ...New York went into shelter in place one day after California. Can you explain the reason for the wide difference in the number of cases and deaths in those two states?
NeilGeorge
04-15-20, 04:15
New York went into shelter in place one day after California. Can you explain the reason for the wide difference in the number of cases and deaths in those two states?Yes, people in New York social distance, however they still crowd into the subways!
Elvis 2008
04-15-20, 04:19
When they go bankrupt send them another $58.
That's a very low margin business you realize that? You literally just burned $58.What I realize, and I am living on planet earth, is that businesses with NEGATIVE margins go broke not ones with low margins.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect
New York went into shelter in place one day after California. Can you explain the reason for the wide difference in the number of cases and deaths in those two states?Not trying to explain the difference in numbers. I already mentioned this before. High tech companies started work from home a few weeks before because 1 employee was infected. Then cities followed with shelter in place. State is last.
Based on what I read about NY, NYC mayor wanted shelter in place, the governor said no. When they eventually did, it is not called shelter in place, although it seems similar.
Elvis 2008
04-15-20, 05:06
The government may feel more comfortable relaxing the travel restrictions. One of the big issues in Colombia and Peru are the lack of ventilators. I think Peru has less than 100 ventilators.
https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-52251286
LOL. This from the guy predicting an 18,000 Dow and 1. 6 Canadian to 1 US dollar. Go back and read what I wrote. I said death wise we would be at the same level as we would with a bad flu.
Just because a scientist saying something does not mean it is scientifically correct. A person should verify their data. Scientists have to be politicians to get funding. People need to understand when there is science behind something (I. E. Facts and data) and when scientists are just winging it. 98% of scientists agree man made global warming is real. So what? Do they have data and facts to support that belief? If they do not, it is politics because scientists are just voting. When I looked up the data, man made global warming was pure bullshit.
When you make projections like 240,000 or a million are going to die in the USA, there is no and was no scientific basis for that. It was politics plain and simple.I'm pretty sure I said 17,000 on the Dow. I missed all the financial numbers. But you left out my COVID-19 numbers. Why is that?
As of April 1: Cases 930 k Deaths 39 k worldwide.
My guess: 1 million+ and 20 k+.
I knew I was lowballing the death count.
You said we would be at the same level as a bad flu. Now's your chance. Just say "I completely fucked that up. " Come on, you can do it. Because you completely fucked that up.
The flu season lasts 180 days. A bad flu season results in 40,000 deaths, an average of 222 per day. COVID-19, in the first 45 days, 25,000 deaths, an average of 555 per day. Are you assuming that over the next 135 days only 15,000 more will die? I'll take that bet.
You've never worked with scientists, have you? If you had you wouldn't have tried to back up the first idiotic statement with another contender.
The scientists doing the research are seldom the people securing the funding. If you had ever worked with scientists you would know why that is. Go hang out with Lockheed Martin at Sandia National Labs for awhile. Find out who is sent to DC to wine and dine and who is spending all their time at the Tonopah Test Range, with a truck load of instruments. Or just ask if anyone can tell you about the infamous "salsa incident" back when they still had scientists try to secure research money.
You've looked at the data on climate change have you? Show me your heat balance. Remember? I told you you would need to work up an environmental heat balance if you wanted to discuss climate change. You do know how to work up a heat balance? I mean if you're unable to do that, we're right back to you not having a fucking clue what you're talking about.
You've already demonstrated a complete lack of knowledge of science. Not just once, twice or even 3 times, but a full 4 times in just 2 posts and now you want to talk about scientific basis? Here's the incredibly fucking stupid part: I fully explained that in the post you responded to. I'll do it again and I'll type slowly so you can follow along.
Science makes predictions based upon what is currently known. It doesn't make predictions based upon what will be known in the future. It doesn't make predictions based upon what may be done in the future. That's what science fiction does. Science takes the currently available data, plots a curve and states "if we continue on this path, this is where we will be."
Let's go back to the top. My predictions were so wrong and yours were dead on? You change your predictions on the number of cases and number of deaths every other day and then argue that the numbers are all wrong, because of everyone's political agenda. Meanwhile, the only 2 predictions I made, I made 2 weeks out. The first one I was over by 7%. I'll take that. The second one, I was way under on my low estimate, but that was the best case number. I'll take that one.
Your ability to predict the stock market doesn't have any effect on the COVID-19 deaths.
YippieKayay
04-15-20, 11:27
New York went into shelter in place one day after California. Can you explain the reason for the wide difference in the number of cases and deaths in those two states?Population density.
Population density.Along with a longer influx of infected travelers. People don't seem to understand logarithmic growth.
Population density.Social distancing was encouraged at the same time as shelter in place, or earlier. Population density should not have an effect on social distancing, if it is being done.
Elvis 2008
04-15-20, 16:09
I'm pretty sure I said 17,000 on the Dow. I missed all the financial numbers. But you left out my COVID-19 numbers. Why is that?
All right. Let us do the whole thing.
If you make enough correct predictions some people will call you a prophet. If your predictions all miss some will call you a fool. I'm definitely not a prophet and I'm most likely a fool, but I'm willing to put it to the test.
Following are my predictions for April 1, 2020. In 2 weeks you can pull up this post and tell me how big a fool you think I am. I recommend patience. If you spend the next few days telling me how wrong I am, and I'm even close to being right, I'm going to rub your nose in it.
To make it easy to find this post again, just search for jjthefool or jjtheprophet and it should pop right up. Here goes.
Worldwide coronavirus cases - 1,000,000+.
Worldwide coronavirus deaths - 20,000+.
Dow Jones Industrial Average - <17,000.
USD to COP - 4,600 per dollar.
USD to CAD - $1. 60 CAD to USD.
Bitcoin - $4800 per Bitcoin.
For comparison, here are current numbers as of 3:36 am Eastern Time:
Cases - 218,000.
Deaths - 8,700.
DJIA - 19,898.92.
USD to COP - 4158.
USD to CAD - 1.46.
Bitcoin - $5444.67.
I included Canadian dollars because I'm in Canada 2 days a week and there's a possibility I'll get stuck there if the border is closed completely. I included Bitcoin because it's something I'm tracking trying to get a better understanding of how the world economy is reacting.
Watch and wait and start preparing your worst insults.Even though you were technically wrong on the number of cases, I think that is more accurate than your number on people who died, so I will give you one right that was wrong and one wrong that was right.
But you were so fucking wrong it is not funny. That is one in six right, and your being a cocky dick telling me about science and predictions and what I do not know. STFU!!
Just so you get it. In the USA, in 2017, there was a total of 80,000 deaths projected. This year, there were 24,000. That is what really bad flu season means. If we go above 80,000 deaths then you can call me wrong and no do not even start with this long time period. As I have said ad nauseam, this virus is crazy contagious and then disappears as fast as it goes up. If you want the over on 80,000 deaths, I will take that bet.
But seriously, why would you even bring this up? 1 in 6 is a fucking F on predictions. Don't worry, pal, one in six is what I expect from "a scientist" and their predictions and projections. Jesus.
But you too go a DK award: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect.
This board seems to have some pretty technically astute guys posting on it and I have tangled with a few of you in the past. Regardless, and something I know on everybody's mind is when and how Colombia will open back up, and the requirements for entry. The title of this thread is "Colombia / Travel Coronavirus Updates so perhaps some of you have some thoughts about this as I want to return sooner than later. I know other Countries are testing all International arrivals and then they get locked down for two weeks at least that is what is going on in Japan and Singapore. I believe it may be a bit complicated and dependent on the airlines routing such as COPA who don't have any direct flights from the USA into Colombia.
So short of a vaccine with a certificate like the Yellow Fever Certificate, or perhaps an immunity type of certificate sometime in the future, does anyone envision Colombia getting set up to test people on arrival and send them to a Hospital if they are positive like I believe they are doing in Singapore. In Japan, people have been sleeping in cardboard boxes for two days waiting for test results before being quarantined for two weeks. And for those flying on COPA with a layover in Panama City, what happens at that airport in transit.
Will Colombia just take your temperature on arrival and make you quarantine for two weeks like before they shut the borders.
Perhaps they may only allow citizens and residents back into the Country first. I know the airlines have been selling tickets at least COPA has for the month of May so for somebody flying thru Panama City what happens.
Thoughts on this because I am sure each and everyone one of you can't wait to get back.
This board seems to have some pretty technically astute guys posting on it and I have tangled with a few of you in the past. Regardless, and something I know on everybody's mind is when and how Colombia will open back up, and the requirements for entry. The title of this thread is "Colombia / Travel Coronavirus Updates so perhaps some of you have some thoughts about this as I want to return sooner than later. I know other Countries are testing all International arrivals and then they get locked down for two weeks at least that is what is going on in Japan and Singapore. I believe it may be a bit complicated and dependent on the airlines routing such as COPA who don't have any direct flights from the USA into Colombia.
So short of a vaccine with a certificate like the Yellow Fever Certificate, or perhaps an immunity type of certificate sometime in the future, does anyone envision Colombia getting set up to test people on arrival and send them to a Hospital if they are positive like I believe they are doing in Singapore. In Japan, people have been sleeping in cardboard boxes for two days waiting for test results before being quarantined for two weeks. And for those flying on COPA with a layover in Panama City, what happens at that airport in transit..I have been thinking about this exact topic for weeks. I'm on the same page with you, I doubt they will let anyone in without some type of test or quarantine in place. One option is to force people to go into a 14-day quarantine in a designated place, such as a near by hotel (at traveller's expense). They have done this in Australia. If you don't show symptoms in 14-days, you are allowed in. If they do practice this, it will be for citizens, residents and essential business travel only. I'm going to apply for the business visa just to be on the safe side.
The Copapanama layover issue is interesting, from the stand point of Colombia, they don't care, they will likely apply the same protective measure to all people coming from abroad. The question is will Panamá allow people from abroad enter their airport.
I think one central question we need to answer is that is the curve flattening in Colombia? We have no chance of coming back in unless things are getting significantly better in Medellin.
YippieKayay
04-15-20, 18:53
Social distancing was encouraged at the same time as shelter in place, or earlier. Population density should not have an effect on social distancing, if it is being done.All social distancing does is flatten the curve. It doesn't eliminate transmission. It only slows it down. In big cities epidemics spread a lot faster.
All social distancing does is flatten the curve. It doesn't eliminate transmission. It only slows it down. In big cities epidemics spread a lot faster.It will reduce and possibly eliminate transmission, otherwise the majority of the population will be infected eventually.
Dcrist0527
04-15-20, 20:31
It will reduce and possibly eliminate transmission, otherwise the majority of the population will be infected eventually.This is the reality staring us in the face. 100% adoption of social distancing for several weeks, and I mean FULL, 100% adoption, could eliminate it. But we need doctors, we need food, etc, so 100% is literally impossible. Therefore, elimination from that method, unfortunately, is a pipe dream.
Social distancing is clearly effective. It bought us time, it's not the cure.
This board seems to have some pretty technically astute guys posting on it and I have tangled with a few of you in the past. Regardless, and something I know on everybody's mind is when and how Colombia will open back up, and the requirements for entry. The title of this thread is "Colombia / Travel Coronavirus Updates so perhaps some of you have some thoughts about this as I want to return sooner than later. I know other Countries are testing all International arrivals and then they get locked down for two weeks at least that is what is going on in Japan and Singapore. I believe it may be a bit complicated and dependent on the airlines routing such as COPA who don't have any direct flights from the USA into Colombia.
So short of a vaccine with a certificate like the Yellow Fever Certificate, or perhaps an immunity type of certificate sometime in the future, does anyone envision Colombia getting set up to test people on arrival and send them to a Hospital if they are positive like I believe they are doing in Singapore. In Japan, people have been sleeping in cardboard boxes for two days waiting for test results before being quarantined for two weeks. And for those flying on COPA with a layover in Panama City, what happens at that airport in transit.
Will Colombia just take your temperature on arrival and make you quarantine for two weeks like before they shut the borders.
Perhaps they may only allow citizens and residents back into the Country first. I know the airlines have been selling tickets at least COPA has for the month of May so for somebody flying thru Panama City what happens.
Thoughts on this because I am sure each and everyone one of you can't wait to get back.Emirates is now doing 15 minute tests before boarding flight from Detroit, There will be a rapid expansion of this concept.
This board seems to have some pretty technically astute guys posting on it and I have tangled with a few of you in the past. Regardless, and something I know on everybody's mind is when and how Colombia will open back up, and the requirements for entry. The title of this thread is "Colombia / Travel Coronavirus Updates so perhaps some of you have some thoughts about this as I want to return sooner than later. I know other Countries are testing all International arrivals and then they get locked down for two weeks at least that is what is going on in Japan and Singapore. I believe it may be a bit complicated and dependent on the airlines routing such as COPA who don't have any direct flights from the USA into Colombia.
So short of a vaccine with a certificate like the Yellow Fever Certificate, or perhaps an immunity type of certificate sometime in the future, does anyone envision Colombia getting set up to test people on arrival and send them to a Hospital if they are positive like I believe they are doing in Singapore. In Japan, people have been sleeping in cardboard boxes for two days waiting for test results before being quarantined for two weeks. And for those flying on COPA with a layover in Panama City, what happens at that airport in transit.
Will Colombia just take your temperature on arrival and make you quarantine for two weeks like before they shut the borders.
Perhaps they may only allow citizens and residents back into the Country first. I know the airlines have been selling tickets at least COPA has for the month of May so for somebody flying thru Panama City what happens.
Thoughts on this because I am sure each and everyone one of you can't wait to get back.Probably end up being a combination of things. First, what China is doing. That is not letting anyone in.
Or second. Quarantines on arrival. Canada has been doing that for almost 4 weeks now because we imported a whole bunch of cases with spring break people coming back, and snowbirds. It started as a strongly suggested quarantine, now it is the law and followed up by authorities.
So having a mandatory 2 week quarantine without visitors or being able to go out of your room will put a damper on most tourist demand if that's the route that countries go.
Another option is selective opening up. Say to people from places with 0 new cases for 2 or 3 weeks. And direct from there only. So that will rule out the US for a long time.
I can't see any options less onerous than one of these. For a year or two at least. Because this thing isn't going away basically until and if we have a vaccine.
The immunity certificate might be possible, but there are people who had the thing, recovered, and now have the virus again. Not sure if they are sick the second time around. But that's not promising for the immunity idea.
All social distancing does is flatten the curve. It doesn't eliminate transmission. It only slows it down. In big cities epidemics spread a lot faster.Thanks for that response. If the current trend continues, I think in a few months we are going to learn a lot about this virus, some surprising information and some contradictory to what we're being told today.
BodyAnybody
04-15-20, 20:53
Probably end up being a combination of things. First, what China is doing. That is not letting anyone in.
Or second. Quarantines on arrival. Canada has been doing that for almost 4 weeks now because we imported a whole bunch of cases with spring break people coming back, and snowbirds. It started as a strongly suggested quarantine, now it is the law and followed up by authorities.
So having a mandatory 2 week quarantine without visitors or being able to go out of your room will put a damper on most tourist demand if that's the route that countries go.
Another option is selective opening up. Say to people from places with 0 new cases for 2 or 3 weeks. And direct from there only. So that will rule out the US for a long time.
I can't see any options less onerous than one of these. For a year or two at least. Because this thing isn't going away basically until and if we have a vaccine.
The immunity certificate might be possible, but there are people who had the thing, recovered, and now have the virus again. Not sure if they are sick the second time around. But that's not promising for the immunity idea.Some of you people astonish me. If we remain under even a partial lockdown for a year or two, the result will be a global economic depression. It won't go that far though, because I'm guessing riots will start long before then.
YippieKayay
04-15-20, 21:33
It will reduce and possibly eliminate transmission, otherwise the majority of the population will be infected eventually.People like Dr Fauci have spoken at length about this. Isolation didn't work so now its mitigation. It's not about eliminating transmission. It's about flattening the curve. The curve won't spike. Instead it will flatten out.
Emirates is now doing 15 minute tests before boarding flight from Detroit, There will be a rapid expansion of this concept.This is good, so when they arrive in the Middle East are they quarantined for two weeks or let free. And how are they handling this at the Detroit airport, is there like a holding area and what happens when someone has tested positive, does all hell break loose. I had almost envisioned something like this say at LAX where you go to a remote parking lot, get tested, and if okay taken by shuttle bus to the International terminal, but this would be months away.
Mojo Bandit
04-15-20, 23:29
This board seems to have some pretty technically astute guys posting on it and I have tangled with a few of you in the past. Regardless, and something I know on everybody's min.Do you follow this blog? medellinguru.com There is a running article that started Apr 1st and is being continually updated about when Colombia might get back to normal, it is not going to answer your question but it is a man on the ground evaluation of things in Colombia.
https://medellinguru.com/coronavirus-return-to-normal/
People like Dr Fauci have spoken at length about this. Isolation didn't work so now its mitigation. It's not about eliminating transmission. It's about flattening the curve. The curve won't spike. Instead it will flatten out.If the population is two, one with virus, the other without. With isolation, the one with virus will either die or cured, and the virus eventually will die.
For 3 people, A, B, and C. A is infected, B is not infected ,and C is unknown. The isolation will determine if C is infected. If C is infected, then the peak is 2, if not, the peak is 1.
Mojo Bandit
04-15-20, 23:33
Emirates is now doing 15 minute tests before boarding flight from Detroit, There will be a rapid expansion of this concept.Let us hope you are right, this is exactly what's needed to get things moving everywhere.
Mojo Bandit
04-16-20, 00:06
The government may feel more comfortable relaxing the travel restrictions. One of the big issues in Colombia and Peru are the lack of conspiratorials. I think Peru has less than 100 ventilators.
https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-52251286There is also this when it comes to increasing conspiratorial capacity,
https://colombiareports.com/colombia-able-to-mass-produce-ventilators-after-medellin-project-proves-success/
Mojo Bandit
04-16-20, 00:08
I was responding to the poster who called it an obscure blog.My Bad Combo and you pointed out that you did not always agree with its conspiratorial outlook, I didn't mean to seem like I was arguing with you. Just trying to agree that the journals finance info is well respected.
Mojo Bandit
04-16-20, 00:50
New York went into shelter in place one day after California. Can you explain the reason for the wide difference in the number of cases and deaths in those two states?I actually already did this in an earlier post when I described how I usually arrive in NYC. Having lived in California for some years and having visited New York City many times. I am just guessing but seriously think about what I am about say and I think its common sense. California is a car and driving place (SF airport BART is an exception but the ridership is not near NYC) NYC is all about mass transit. From the air trains that connect to commuter trains that bring you into the main trains station to the subway train that takes you to the neighborhood that you are staying or living in. In California one lands at the airport and gets in an Uber or taxi and that driver is the only one that you contact on the way to your destination.
In NYC its more like this Besides it being a place that has thousands of arriving people every day. It is a city that is the opposite of social distancing. When I fly into NYC (imagine I have the virus as I make my trip) I pick a flight going in to either Newark in Jersey or JFK in Queens, but I stay in Manhattan. I avoid LaGuardia airport. Why? Because I hate surface transportation in NYC where the traffic sucks, So I get in a airtrain with about 10 other people (touching contaminating handles and poles the whole time) to take to the train station where we (Myself and the other people that I have now infected because they were breathing the same air as I in a confined space) then each of us get on various trains (myself and all the people I spread it to on the airtrain) into a commuter train car holding 20 or so people who will be breathing the same recycled air as us ( then us and all the people we contaminate along the way as commuter train makes its way to Penn Station and people at get off and people get on at the stops along the way. Then I and the up to as many 200 people who have been contaminated by now (10 on air train) x (20 in each of their train cars) and then we all go get on various subway cars that are packed with like 30 to fifty people. 200 x 50 - we just arrived in the city and we are up to a thousand already.
But in reality everything I just typed happens at a much slower rate of time. My initial trip into Manhattan at most infected like 60 - 80, The virus has to incubate for at least one day before the person is infectious to another person. But it still happens. Over the next days then each of those 80 will probably affect at least 80 people the next day moving around the city's subways and buses 10 million people cram into commuter trains, subway cars, and buses every day in NYC. Breathing the same air and grabbing the same handles. All this was probably quietly going on before any shutdown.
YippieKayay
04-16-20, 01:05
If the population is two, one with virus, the other without. With isolation, the one with virus will either die or cured, and the virus eventually will die.
For 3 people, A, B, and C. A is infected, B is not infected ,and C is unknown. The isolation will determine if C is infected. If C is infected, then the peak is 2, if not, the peak is 1.Isolation didn't work and now its too late. You would need hundreds of thousands of people doing contact tracing to find everyone and isolate them in time. That's why its about mitigation now. None of your "theories" and "feelings" matter. This is what all the experts, including Dr Fauci, are saying. It's about mitigation now.
Sometimes I wonder if some people simply cannot process reality.
I actually already did this in an earlier post when I described how I usually arrive in NYC. .Shouldn't the people in charge see the issues you described and suspend mass public transportation and limit travel? That's what Philippines has done.
John Clayton
04-16-20, 01:20
I actually already did this in an earlier post when I described how I usually arrive in NYC. Having lived in California for some years and having visited New York City many times. I am just guessing but seriously think about what I am about say and I think its common sense. ... Breathing the same air and grabbing the same handles.There is another theory (still to be tested) from respected epidemiologists. California has had 1000 deaths to date, NY 7000. CA has 40 million people, NY 20 million, so that's a 14 x greater death rate in NY, which can't be explained just by social distancing. Add to that is that the first reported cases in the US were in California, and that there were no known points of infection for those first few cases. In addition, there were reports in December and January of an "early and severe" flu season, for which this year's flu vaccine didn't seem particularly effective. So, to make the long, plausible detective story shorter, thousands of Chinese tourists came to California on vacation in November, December and January, went to Disneyland or whatever and infected us before the disease was identified (publicly). Therefore, many people here were infectedn (some got sick and died), but without knowing what they had. Hence, there may be a greater percentage of people in the community who are immune.
IMHO, all this panic, social isolation, closing of the tennis courts and massage parlors, etc, is a big, fucking waste. Okay, close the basketball arenas and churches, but the beaches, parks and bait and tackle shops. Stupid.
Do you follow this blog? medellinguru.com There is a running article that started Apr 1st and is being continually updated about when Colombia might get back to normal, it is not going to answer your question but it is a man on the ground evaluation of things in Colombia.
https://medellinguru.com/coronavirus-return-to-normal/Yes I saw this and today Duque said the Country will not be opening up it's airspace even if the quarantine on the 27th is lifted.
Isolation didn't work and now its too late. You would need hundreds of thousands of people doing contact tracing to find everyone and isolate them in time. That's why its about mitigation now. None of your "theories" and "feelings" matter. This is what all the experts, including Dr Fauci, are saying. It's about mitigation now.Now I know what you are talking about. You just use a different definition and you still need isolation. There is also different degree of isolation.
What New York is doing is mild compare to the isolation being done elsewhere so how can one determine isolation does not work when we don't share the same definition?
Sometimes I wonder if some people simply cannot process reality.You can use my example to tell me why it wound not work. The peak may last longer but the virus will die when it can no longer replicate.
Mojo Bandit
04-16-20, 03:09
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/ray-dalio-pure-alpha-bridgewater-fund-flat-gains-returns-2019-2020-1-1028800764
Ray Dalio's fund saw 0. 5% returns in 2019 as the S&P 500 surged 29%.
You are really hurting my feelings, dude!And the rest of the article said. "Bridgewater's other funds fared better than Pure Alpha in 2019 - the All Weather fund returned 16%, and the All Weather China fund returned 20.1%, according to Institutional Investor. ".
This just in from FT.
https://www.ft.com/content/81e074cc-3950-11ea-a6d3-9a26f8c3cba4
Although Ray Dalio's Bridgewater Associates had a lacklustre year, it retained its top spot in the overall ranking of all time with $58.5 bn of gains since it launched in 1975.
Some of you people astonish me. If we remain under even a partial lockdown for a year or two, the result will be a global economic depression. It won't go that far though, because I'm guessing riots will start long before then.It would be beyond a depression -- not sure what term to use. You'd also have suicides from people going crazy from the social isolation. Social distancing is not mentally healthy.
Elvis 2008
04-16-20, 04:41
Add to that is that the first reported cases in the US were in California, and that there were no known points of infection for those first few cases. In addition, there were reports in December and January of an "early and severe" flu season, for which this year's flu vaccine didn't seem particularly effective. So, to make the long, plausible detective story shorter, thousands of Chinese tourists came to California on vacation in November, December and January, went to Disneyland or whatever and infected us before the disease was identified (publicly). Therefore, many people here were infectedn (some got sick and died), but without knowing what they had. Hence, there may be a greater percentage of people in the community who are immune.
IMHO, all this panic, social isolation, closing of the tennis courts and massage parlors, etc, is a big, fucking waste. Okay, close the basketball arenas and churches, but the beaches, parks and bait and tackle shops. Stupid.Wow, great post, JC! I would add the Covid test is only 70% sensitive, and my gut feeling is that it is even lower than that because there was such political pressure to produce a test even a test that was not that good.
John Clayton
04-16-20, 04:46
...There is also different degree of isolation...What New York is doing is mild compare to the isolation being done elsewhere...There is also effective vs. Ineffective. Clearly, the "strict" isolation done in Wuhan, Milan or aboard the "Diamond Princess" where healthy were confined with infected in a closed structure with shared ventilation was ineffective at preventing infection. If you live in a building with 2000 other people, the best thing you can do for the health of the community is, infected or healthy, to sit outside (6' away from others) for 16 hours a day. Spend the minimum amount of time (or shed the minimum amount of virus) in the pest hole you call home.
Elvis 2008
04-16-20, 04:51
Some of you people astonish me. If we remain under even a partial lockdown for a year or two, the result will be a global economic depression. It won't go that far though, because I'm guessing riots will start long before then.As bad as things are here, BA, they are that much worse in Colombia. The financial situation is awful there. The chicas I have met before and talked to have been so grateful for me giving them $30 to $40 just for groceries.
I know most of the time you do something like this a chica will take the money and run and say "Ha Ha sucker!" and never speak to you again. The women now are taking picture of the food they are buying, the medications for their parents, doing sex videos for me, telling me how good they are going to fuck me when I return, and instead of not talking to me, I cannot even get them off the phone.
There is no way Colombia can stay in prolonged lock down for years. The people cannot afford it. Hell, there were riots or whatever in Michigan today, and one of my chicas said there has been unrest in Colombia as well. The government can do what it wants, but the citizens of both countries are not going to go along with it for a year. What are you going to do? Lock everyone up? We are looking at a few more weeks. The government can do what it wants, but people are not going to tolerate more than that.
YippieKayay
04-16-20, 12:40
https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/coronavirus-canada-surge-hospitals-icus-deaths-1.5533391
President Duque already announced limited commercial activity will resume April 27.
As bad as things are here, BA, they are that much worse in Colombia. The financial situation is awful there. The chicas I have met before and talked to have been so grateful for me giving them $30 to $40 just for groceries.
I know most of the time you do something like this a chica will take the money and run and say "Ha Ha sucker!" and never speak to you again. The women now are taking picture of the food they are buying, the medications for their parents, doing sex videos for me, telling me how good they are going to fuck me when I return, and instead of not talking to me, I cannot even get them off the phone.
There is no way Colombia can stay in prolonged lock down for years. The people cannot afford it. Hell, there were riots or whatever in Michigan today, and one of my chicas said there has been unrest in Colombia as well. The government can do what it wants, but the citizens of both countries are not going to go along with it for a year. What are you going to do? Lock everyone up? We are looking at a few more weeks. The government can do what it wants, but people are not going to tolerate more than that.
Elvis 2008.
I did what you requested someone else to do. I went back and read what you have said. It wasn't the way I wanted to spend my morning, but since I got a rude, early, work related, awakening, I needed something to pass the time. I created my own Elvis COVID-19 claims file. It makes for some interesting reading. Looks like I'll have the time this weekend to go through and copy / paste all the relative pieces. I'm not sure you want me to do that.
I can give you a few highlights.
You suggested the US wouldn't reach 200,000 known cases. You suggested the US deaths would not reach 25,000. You said it was no worse than a flu season and pointed to this season. You suggested it was no worse than a bad flu season. You suggested it is no worse than a really bad flu season and used the number 80,000 deaths for the year the CDC estimated 61,000 deaths. Oops. I almost forgot. Before all that you said it was much worse than the flu.
Do you own stock in a company which specializes in moving goalposts? Because you're giving them a shitload of work.
I admit when I'm wrong. I even set myself up to be wrong. As a few people have noted, I'm not a finance guy. The ups and downs of the markets hold no interest. I threw in the Dow, COP, CAD and BTC numbers for my reference. I wanted to remember what my mid March guesses were. Being wrong on those 4 means nothing to me.
My other 2 numbers, apparently you don't understand. When I said 1 million+ cases, any number less than 1 million is wrong. It's a threshold. When I said 20,000+ deaths, any number, 20 k and up is correct. It's a threshold. If the actual numbers had been 999,999 and 19,999 then I would have been wrong on both. Now if I had left off the plus sign, then we could call the 1 million close and the 20 k a complete failure. Those would have been specific predictions. Yes, I only got 1 of 6 right, but it's the one that matters.
Surely you understand that? Don't investors use the same thing? Set a buy or sell price? If you want to buy when a stock drops to $20 per share, you don't buy at $23 because it's close, and you don't cancel the buy if it drops to $15. Of course that assumes more information doesn't come available. You might learn the upside is bigger than previously thought and decide $23 is the bottom. You also might learn of an upcoming downside and realize $15 is going to drop to $10.
Weird as it may seem, I understand science. Perhaps even stranger, you don't. Before your panties get in a bunch, take a moment to digest this. I'm not going to go back and quote you, because I'm getting hungry. I'll do so this weekend if you request.
You said something about science being wrong because it was just a theory. That's akin to the Black Knight in "The Holy Grail" stating "It's just a flesh wound" after both his arms are cut off.
The scientific definition of a theory is the current, best explanation for observable phenomena which accounts for all known data without contradiction.
Theories evolve over time. As more is learned the theory must continue to account for everything known. Occasionally this requires a few steps backwards, but it's extremely rare for a theory to be discarded.
People say "it's just a theory" without understanding what that means. Gravity is just a theory. Light is just a theory. Electricity is just a theory.
Make your guesses, give your opinions and stick with what you know. Stay away from science.
There is no way Colombia can stay in prolonged lock down for years. The people cannot afford it. Hell, there were riots or whatever in Michigan today, and one of my chicas said there has been unrest in Colombia as well. The government can do what it wants, but the citizens of both countries are not going to go along with it for a year. What are you going to do? Lock everyone up? We are looking at a few more weeks. The government can do what it wants, but people are not going to tolerate more than that.There is a video on Facebook of a gang of people stopping a food truck on the highway from the airport to Medellin, searching for food. When people are starving, they will take drastic measures. I hope something is done before those measures become widespread.
A few days ago, I saw Don Peeples on TV. He is a real estate entrepreneur and political activist (Democrat), and named one of the 40 most powerful African Americans in business. He said this virus cannot destroy the United States, even while causing many deaths; but the economic shutdown will destroy the country if allowed to go on more than a few more months. I believe he is correct.
YippieKayay
04-16-20, 15:47
A few days ago, I saw Don Peeples on TV. He is a real estate entrepreneur and political activist (Democrat), and named one of the 40 most powerful African Americans in business. He said this virus cannot destroy the United States, even while causing many deaths; but the economic shutdown will destroy the country if allowed to go on more than a few more months. I believe he is correct.It's the same thing:
Option (A): The Great Lockdown. Saves lives but locks down many businesses. Hurts the economy.
Option (B): No lockdown: millions die and people are too afraid to go out. Businesses end up shutting down. Hurts economy.
Option (A) at least lets you control how bad things get instead of leaving it up to chance.
Dcrist0527
04-16-20, 16:33
It's the same thing:
Option (A): The Great Lockdown. Saves lives but locks down many businesses. Hurts the economy.
Option (B): No lockdown: millions die and people are too afraid to go out. Businesses end up shutting down. Hurts economy.
Option (A) at least lets you control how bad things get instead of leaving it up to chance.I think what will happen is somewhere between those options. But, I think I would rephrase your options. We think of "the economy" in terms of dollars, of markets. What is so evident now more than ever is economy = people.
No doubt, what I am saying is cold and void of emotion and compassion. And I readily admit you cannot put a dollar amount on a human life. Option A has, so far, removed the ability to earn a living, pay mortgage and rent, pay for 3 square meals for more than 22 million people. So what is the magic number? You say millions die. I don't know that I would concede that point but for arguments sake, what is the number of unemployed or hungry or homeless that would tip the scale to option be? 25 million? 40 million?
I totally agree with your point about fear. I think that fear is already there. I believe there are large numbers of people that will be reluctant and very slow to return to normal (whatever that will look like). Personally, while I have mixed feeling on this shutdown and the Constitutionality, I believe our governments have done the right thing to this point. But I strongly feel we are at a tipping point. There are 2 Congressmen who are proposing $2000/ month payments to most Americans until this is over. I understand the sentiment. But that is so far beyond sustainable, it's laughable. I believe the suggestion was a poorly veiled political stunt. But the sad fact is that it is actually a need. My point: this economy is at the breaking point.
We're between the rock and a hard place. But if we keep economies closed for months, that rock and a hard place will close in quickly. We are nearing the point of no return. Our governments would never tell us that. But look at the numbers being tossed about. Even the US, which can print money at will, cannot survive 3 more months of this.
We will see more Lansing, Michigans. We will see more and more violent acts out of desperation.
Option be isn't the perfect solution. There is no perfect solution. But giving people the freedom to make the choice. Let the people evaluate their risks. Yes, absolutely, we should all consider public health, not just our own personal health. But we can no longer ignore the public health impacts of the shutdown, of 22 million people without incomes, without considering how many small businesses will never return, of the loss of job prospects, of the desperation due to the lack of basic human necessities.
It's the same thing:
Option (A): The Great Lockdown. Saves lives but locks down many businesses. Hurts the economy.
Option (B): No lockdown: millions die and people are too afraid to go out. Businesses end up shutting down. Hurts economy.
Option (A) at least lets you control how bad things get instead of leaving it up to chance.Option (B), history is proof that people are not afraid to go out.
YippieKayay
04-16-20, 19:40
Option (B), history is proof that people are not afraid to go out.What are you talking about? What history?
People are already leaving essential jobs like food processing plants and long-term care homes because they're afraid. Amazon employees are protesting unsafe work conditions. Do you actually think restaurants and sport venues would still be able to have customers when there is an infectious virus out there putting people in the ICU? What do you think New York City would look like if there wasn't a lockdown? You really think all these various governments at various levels are scrambling because they think this is like the seasonal flu? Are you that insane?
Accept reality.
ChuchoLoco
04-16-20, 19:43
Last night communist dictator Ortega came out of a month long hiding and announced on state run tv that there is no real threat from the covid99 and no quoronteen in Nicaragua because the people need to work. He did bash the US too and blamed others.
Scary how similar to Trump and Fox News.
No difference except the names.
Dcrist0527
04-16-20, 19:49
What are you talking about? What history?
People are already leaving essential jobs like food processing plants and long-term care homes because they're afraid. Amazon employees are protesting unsafe work conditions. Do you actually think restaurants and sport venues would still be able to have customers when there is an infectious virus out there putting people in the ICU? What do you think New York City would look like if there wasn't a lockdown? You really think all these various governments at various levels are scrambling because they think this is like the seasonal flu? Are you that insane?
Accept reality.Lansing, Michigan.
Mojo Bandit
04-16-20, 20:06
As bad as things are here, BA, they are that much worse in Colombia. The financial situation is awful there. The chicas I have met before and talked to have been so grateful for me giving them $30 to $40 just for groceries.
I know most of the time you do something like this a chica will take the money and run and say "Ha Ha sucker!" and never speak to you again. The women now are taking picture of the food they are buying, the medications for their parents, doing sex videos for me, telling me how good they are going to fuck me when I return, and instead of not talking to me, I cannot even get them off the phone.
There is no way Colombia can stay in prolonged lock down for years. The people cannot afford it. Hell, there were riots or whatever in Michigan today, and one of my chicas said there has been unrest in Colombia as well. The government can do what it wants, but the citizens of both countries are not going to go along with it for a year. What are you going to do? Lock everyone up? We are looking at a few more weeks. The government can do what it wants, but people are not going to tolerate more than that.I have to agree that a lock down can only be sustained for a few more weeks at max is right, even people who intellectually agree currently that it is a good ideal will start to feel the anxiety of an economic shutdown and of being shut ins and even these rational people overtime would start acting out. Whether or not it is Coronavirus related is debatable but there have been an uptick in family members murdering family members in the NYC area. One was murder suicide, obviously these were disturbed people anyway but the lockdown might be exacerbating their problems.
One unsustainable situation related to the shutdown, which although outside of the retail and service sector economics is directly related. That is the drastic decrease in state revenues because of the drop in retail sales. This could have an impact on hospitals capacity to treat patients . Most states have balanced budget laws, most states get a hefty percentage of revenue from retail sales taxes, most wrote their budgets with a rosy economy on their minds, states pay a minimum of 10% of all hospital bills through medicaid and often contribute more to cover the uninsured that wind up in the ER. IF the states can't carry their water with the hospitals than the hospitals could go broke and complicate the treatment of COVID-19 patients. I might be wrong about this, and I am sure that if varies from state to state but even if I am only partially correct than again there is no way for anyone to conceive of a year long shut down. I do not know how public university hospitals are financed in conjunction with state budgets but even a private university hospital sees state money through medicaid payments.
Looking at what's been announced so far I think here will be a compromise and a complete lockdown is not going to be an option. Something to the tune of 'all elderly, asthmatics, diabetics, etc, stay home and stay ostracized. Younger healthy people go back to work and stay away from the elderly etc. Blah blah blah". I don't think its going to be an all or nothing type thing, and it will not happen uniformly in all locations in the US anyway. Maybe Colombia will do something similar?
YippieKayay
04-16-20, 20:16
Looking at what's been announced so far I think here will be a compromise and a complete lockdown is not going to be an option. Something to the tune of 'all elderly, asthmatics, diabetics, etc, stay home and stay ostracized. Younger healthy people go back to work and stay away from the elderly etc. Blah blah blah". I don't think its going to be an all or nothing type thing, and it will not happen uniformly in all locations in the US anyway. Maybe Colombia will do something similar?Duque already proposed this and local governments laughed at him. He called it an "intelligent quarantine" but the mayor of Bogota said it's not intelligent at all. Old people in Colombia live with young people.
It's not getting through to people unfortunately. The lockdown isn't some optional thing that can be just lifted without consequences. You start easing now and the economy won't simply jump start again. I'm not going to a bar, or a movie theatre for another year. Lockdown or no lockdown. I'm staying mostly home where its safe.
Dcrist0527
04-16-20, 20:20
Something to the tune of 'all elderly, asthmatics, diabetics, etc, stay home and stay ostracized. Younger healthy people go back to work and stay away from the elderly etc. Blah blah blah". Who knows where the details will land. And I believe some nations are doing just that. In theory, I think this is a great approach. But how do you police that? Worse, if I have asthma, you are telling me I can't work like my neighbor next door? I really thought antibody testing and some certification would be the answer. Well, beyond the challenges of the antibody test, we would still be treating those that haven't had the virus like the asthmatic. Selectively ostracizing them, not allowing them to work? And whether I'm an asthmatic or I don't have immunity, what is the end game? The vaccine? So now we have created a caste system of sorts.
As I said, it is a good idea in theory. I just don't feel comfortable with the unintended consequences. And I agree, lifting all restrictions isn't a perfect answer either. But, I would rather leave the decision for the asthmatic to ostracize themselves vs telling them they are ostracized.
It's not getting through to people, unfortunately. The lockdown isn't some optional thing that can be just lifted without consequences.A lot of people (Colombians included) are in very bad shape to this; A lot of the world lives check to check, and guaranteed riots will eventually kill more than the virus will.
Frankly, I'm in the camp that we should have let the virus takes it's. 01% toll on the world rather than tank the world economy. If we "flatten the curve" by staying in, people who stay in, won't get it. But look at what this has done. I bet 1000000 x to 1 that every government and terrorist organization is realizing that virii are more powerful than bombs now. What precedent have we set that the world can shut down with something that is 1/1000th POTENTIALLY deadly? The amount of rampant power abuse that is happening right now in every country to "flatten the curve" is disgusting. Imagine if this was even 5% deadly? We would have death camps by now with the government tearing people from their homes. I'm no "Sovereign Citizen" but the constitution is not supposed to be thrown out the window when we get something that is less deadly than the flu.
We all want Columbia (and the rest of the world) to open back up. I need me chicas Colombians.
Duque already proposed this and local governments laughed at him. He called it an "intelligent quarantine" but the mayor of Bogota said it's not intelligent at all. Old people in Colombia live with young people.
It's not getting through to people unfortunately. The lockdown isn't some optional thing that can be just lifted without consequences. You start easing now and the economy won't simply jump start again. I'm not going to a bar, or a movie theatre for another year. Lockdown or no lockdown. I'm staying mostly home where its safe.I'll go out once I'm sure my area / province / country has few to no new cases happening. We will get to that here.
But my prediction is that the US will open up. Relatively soon, and they'll have new spikes in cases in those places that do open up. Not so much through workplace spread. Because workplaces will get a handle on testing everyone, but through community interaction. After a while, 2 or 3 spikes and a few thousands more deaths, something will change. I don't know what.
BodyAnybody
04-16-20, 21:13
Duque already proposed this and local governments laughed at him. He called it an "intelligent quarantine" but the mayor of Bogota said it's not intelligent at all. Old people in Colombia live with young people.
It's not getting through to people unfortunately. The lockdown isn't some optional thing that can be just lifted without consequences. You start easing now and the economy won't simply jump start again. I'm not going to a bar, or a movie theatre for another year. Lockdown or no lockdown. I'm staying mostly home where its safe.The main group of people I see screaming for months or years of lockdown are old and scared and willing to sacrifice a decade of young peoples future so they can feel safe.
What are you talking about? What history?
People are already leaving essential jobs like food processing plants and long-term care homes because they're afraid. Amazon employees are protesting unsafe work conditions. Do you actually think restaurants and sport venues would still be able to have customers when there is an infectious virus out there putting people in the ICU? What do you think New York City would look like if there wasn't a lockdown? You really think all these various governments at various levels are scrambling because they think this is like the seasonal flu? Are you that insane?
Accept reality.You should accept reality instead of constantly attacking anyone who you don't agree with. Maybe you didn't see the demonstrations in Michigan and North Caroline yesterday. More demonstrations are planned for during the next few days in other states. Anything that has already happened is history. You do not know what will happen in the future. You are making assumptions. You are only blabbering.
YippieKayay
04-16-20, 21:47
You should accept reality instead of constantly attacking anyone who you don't agree with. Maybe you didn't see the demonstrations in Michigan and North Caroline yesterday. More demonstrations are planned for during the next few days in other states. Anything that has already happened is history. You do not know what will happen in the future. You are making assumptions. You are only blabbering.Yes I do know about the demonstrators. It doesn't change anything. Keep believing this lock down is optional and its just like the flu.
Yes I do know about the demonstrators. It doesn't change anything. Keep believing this lock down is optional and its just like the flu.I have never stated that this virus is just like the flu. On March 16, you stated "In the next two weeks North America is going to go through what Italy has been going through." I don't need to say anymore.
You should accept reality instead of constantly attacking anyone who you don't agree with. Maybe you didn't see the demonstrations in Michigan and North Caroline yesterday. More demonstrations are planned for during the next few days in other states. Anything that has already happened is history. You do not know what will happen in the future. You are making assumptions. You are only blabbering.In my country we live life pretty much as normal except from no big events and no discos / bars. No lockdown needed.
The virus isn't especially dangerous for people under 60 without health problems. 22 million unemployed in four weeks, that's terrifying and know that it will affect all countries. I don't know if USA should end the lockdown considering the general health problems among Americans.
Elvis 2008
04-16-20, 22:13
Looking at what's been announced so far I think here will be a compromise and a complete lockdown is not going to be an option. Something to the tune of 'all elderly, asthmatics, diabetics, etc, stay home and stay ostracized. Younger healthy people go back to work and stay away from the elderly etc. Blah blah blah". I don't think its going to be an all or nothing type thing, and it will not happen uniformly in all locations in the US anyway. Maybe Colombia will do something similar?I agree. Trump is supposed to be releasing a lockdown reduction plan tonight. Governors from some states like North Dakota are pushing for it. We will see things get back to somewhat normal here in much of the country next month.
Colombia is trickier because the government does not have as much power or respect as ours does, and it has fewer health care resources. There are a lot of provinces or departments or states or whatever they are called that have few to no cases. I could see them opening up those provinces sooner and see how things go. Bogota though will likely be the last part of the country to open up.
Elvis 2008
04-16-20, 22:17
Yes I do know about the demonstrators. It doesn't change anything. Keep believing this lock down is optional and its just like the flu.Sorry, YK, but your POV is getting more and more minority. This is the most liked comment on Zero Hedge today about the virus:
"Millions will die. Make that 200 k will die. Make that 100 k will die. Make that 60 k will die. Remove NYC from the stats and 30 k might die.
Let's lockdown 329,940,000 healthy people to slow the death of 60,000."
There will be a political calculation made to appease the POV of a lot of people who feels as this poster does.
YippieKayay
04-16-20, 23:16
I have never stated that this virus is just like the flu. On March 16, you stated "In the next two weeks North America is going to go through what Italy has been going through." I don't need to say anymore.Yes look at the death count in the US. It's twice as much as Italy every day. Look at New York City. I was on point.
Look man. You're fucked. I'm fucked. We're all fucked. Best not to presume we'll be fine in a few weeks time and this will all get sorted out. Put away enough cash for 12 months. Invest the rest in intervals. Stay home. Win.
Gilead might be a good investment.
Yes look at the death count in the US. It's twice as much as Italy every day. Look at New York City. I was on point.
Look man. You're fucked. I'm fucked. We're all fucked. Best not to presume we'll be fine in a few weeks time and this will all get sorted out. Put away enough cash for 12 months. Invest the rest in intervals. Stay home. Win.
That's not a bad description of what the Tea Party movement was.
The main group of people I see screaming for months or years of lockdown are old and scared and willing to sacrifice a decade of young peoples future so they can feel safe.
John Clayton
04-17-20, 00:43
Yes look at the death count in the US. It's twice as much as Italy every day. Look at New York City. I was on point.
Look man. You're fucked. I'm fucked. We're all fucked. Best not to presume we'll be fine in a few weeks time and this will all get sorted out. Put away enough cash for 12 months. Invest the rest in intervals. Stay home. Win.California had the first confirmed cases in the US, but the death rate here is 1/20th NY. Why is that?
YippieKayay
04-17-20, 00:45
California had the first confirmed cases in the US, but the death rate here is 1/20th NY. Why is that?I responded to a question earlier about this. Throughout history big cities do much worse during an epidemic. Everyone drives in LA. Everyone takes the subway in NY City. Heck you would take a train from New Jersey to work in NY City.
Yes look at the death count in the US. It's twice as much as Italy every day. Look at New York City. I was on point.The population of Italy is approximately 60.36 million; the US, 328.2 million. More than five times more in the US than Italy. On March 16, there were a total of 36 deaths per one million people in Italy. On March 30, there were a total of 10 deaths per one million people in the US. The total death count on those two days was 2158 for Italy and 3150 for the US. So if you want to compare a total count between two countries in which one has more than five times the population of the other, then I suppose you were on point; but I wouldn't say they are going through the same thing at the same level.
California had the first confirmed cases in the US, but the death rate here is 1/20th NY. Why is that?It's not "the count" but how they're counting. And, we'll in due time be seeing why a high count has been incentivized.
BodyAnybody
04-17-20, 01:57
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YippieKayay
04-17-20, 02:14
The population of Italy is approximately 60.36 million; the US, 328.2 million. More than five times more in the US than Italy. On March 16, there were a total of 36 deaths per one million people in Italy. On March 30, there were a total of 10 deaths per one million people in the US. The total death count on those two days was 2158 for Italy and 3150 for the US. So if you want to compare a total count between two countries in which one has more than five times the population of the other, then I suppose you were on point; but I wouldn't say they are going through the same thing at the same level.Fun Luvr, you're not taking into account the up to two week incubation period and the fact that the US went on lockdown around the time deaths started to mount in Italy. That's one of the more dangerous things that may happen. People are going to blame health officials when things turn out better without giving them credit.
TurdyCurdyOne
04-17-20, 02:18
Last night communist dictator Ortega came out of a month long hiding and announced on state run tv that there is no real threat from the covid99 and no quoronteen in Nicaragua because the people need to work. He did bash the US too and blamed others.
Scary how similar to Trump and Fox News.
No difference except the names.And except for certain locations, not in Nic. , he is correct.
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