PDA

View Full Version : Colombia / Travel Coronavirus Updates



Pages : 1 2 [3] 4

Fun Luvr
04-17-20, 03:51
Two people at the Minorista market have tested positive for coronavirus. I don't know if they worked there or were customers. The Department of Health has said that anyone who has been in that market during the last two weeks should call a number they set up. If the people do not have any symptoms, they will be told to isolate for 14 days. One of my friends was there Monday of last week. She has three more days of isolation.

Mojo Bandit
04-17-20, 05:16
Sorry, YK, but your POV is getting more and more minority. This is the most liked comment on Zero Hedge today about the virus:

"Millions will die. Make that 200 k will die. Make that 100 k will die. Make that 60 k will die. Remove NYC from the stats and 30 k might die.

Let's lockdown 329,940,000 healthy people to slow the death of 60,000."

There will be a political calculation made to appease the POV of a lot of people who feels as this poster does.The death rate is low because of social distancing. Because everyone is locked down. That is obvious. The only way to know otherwise is if it were possible to see what would have happen with zero social distancing and social distancing in a parallel world as a control group. Why are you consistently getting your information about a pandemic from a finance blog instead of epidemiologists? Are the epidemiologists are part of some conspiracy? If you were an epidemiologists you say lets plan for the worst that can happen. Then as steps are taken: flights are stopped from China, flights are stopped from Europe, etc practice social distancing and when they are successful you turn around say there estimates were wrong and so they were lying the whole time? NYC hospitals have been like a war zone. Converting otherwise used units into ICUs and Isolation wards. Teams of medical professionals have flown in from places like Ohio and Utah, and you keep singing this song about how the virus is not as deadly as they say.

Mojo Bandit
04-17-20, 05:58
We will see more Lansing, Michigans. We will see more and more violent acts out of desperation.

Option be isn't the perfect solution. There is no perfect solution. But giving people the freedom to make the choice. Let the people evaluate their risks. Yes, absolutely, we should all consider public health, not just our own personal health. But we can no longer ignore the public health impacts of the shutdown, of 22 million people without incomes, without considering how many small businesses will never return, of the loss of job prospects, of the desperation due to the lack of basic human necessities.The problem with with the ideal of "Freedom of choice" and letting people"evaluate their risk" when dealing with a contagious disease is that these people are going to spread it to other people. If someone is allowed to catch the disease than that's their choice sure. But are they also going to be responsible and stay home after they catch it- not go to the grocery store and breath all of over people? The ones who don't give a shit about being careful are not going to be trusted to keep themselves away from other people.

You know these protests do not reflect how the majority of people think right? Two polls, one from Gallup the other from a very respected marketing company.

71% of Americans are not ready to just jump back in to normalcy but are in a wait and see mode to see what happens with this virus.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/308264/americans-remain-risk-averse-getting-back-normal.aspx

"69% saying they can accept extreme limitations for more than a month if it helps to suppress the infection rate. Two-thirds go so far as to say they don't care how long restrictions are in place if it prevents widespread illness and death. ".

https://www.herald-dispatch.com/wcn/wc_news/research-america-americans-are-optimistic-despite-uncertainty-amid-pandemic/article_679a2b77-78b1-544e-925f-30bb42194585.html

Elvis 2008
04-17-20, 06:15
Why are you consistently getting your information about a pandemic from a finance blog instead of epidemiologists?I am not talking about information. I am talking about a public opinion that is growing.


Are the epidemiologists are part of some conspiracy? If you were an epidemiologists you say lets plan for the worst that can happen.And I have said repeatedly that I would have done exactly as they have said and done.


Teams of medical professionals have flown in from places like Ohio and Utah, and you keep singing this song about how the virus is not as deadly as they say.As the poster pointed out (not me but I agree with it), the number of expected dead per the experts you are talking about has gone from millions to.

60,000. That is a fact.

I don't know why you are giving me a hard time about this.

JjBee62
04-17-20, 08:37
The death rate is low because of social distancing. Because everyone is locked down. That is obvious. The only way to know otherwise is if it were possible to see what would have happen with zero social distancing and social distancing in a parallel world as a control group. Why are you consistently getting your information about a pandemic from a finance blog instead of epidemiologists? Are the epidemiologists are part of some conspiracy? If you were an epidemiologists you say lets plan for the worst that can happen. Then as steps are taken: flights are stopped from China, flights are stopped from Europe, etc practice social distancing and when they are successful you turn around say there estimates were wrong and so they were lying the whole time? NYC hospitals have been like a war zone. Converting otherwise used units into ICUs and Isolation wards. Teams of medical professionals have flown in from places like Ohio and Utah, and you keep singing this song about how the virus is not as deadly as they say.We already have the zero social distancing Control groups. Many of them.

The first and best documented is the USS Theodore Roosevelt. Of a crew of 4,800 healthy, young adults, 585 have tested positive, with 100% tested. If they test the remainder again in a few days, we should have a best case number for the percentage of the population susceptible to infection.

The next control group is just about any affected nursing home. I'll use the local one I know and wrote about last week. As of April 14 there has been 1 death. Eight patients and 8 staff have all tested positive, 4 of the patients are hospitalized. This is out of a population of about 60. Once again a follow-up test will be needed to get a worst case scenario.

From these 2, we know that the disease isn't much more contagious than suspected and reported. It also greatly reduces the probability that there have been many more undetected cases than expected.

I seem to recall the experts saying that 60 million US citizens would catch the disease. That number, 18%, falls between the Roosevelt infection rate of 12% and the nursing home rate of 28%. It almost appears as if the experts know what they're talking about.

JjBee62
04-17-20, 09:01
Over the past week I've been talking to a lot of Colombianas. I'm finding a widespread sampling. Some are barrio rats, some are upper middle class. I've talked with women from several cities as well.

I'm not seeing desperation. I ask each one how the quarantine is going and I'm not getting panicked answers. I even flat out offered to give 1 girl money to help buy groceries, no strings attached, and she turned it down. They do seem to be getting a little stir crazy. They want to get out to dance and party. But starvation and panic don't seem to be anywhere near.

On the upside, got a girl who wants me to come to Cartagena and visit the islands with her, a girl in Armenia who wants to cook for me, 1 in Bogota who wants to go clubbing, and 2 in Medellin who want to take me to their favorite restaurants.

I believe Colombia isn't about to collapse.

Dcrist0527
04-17-20, 14:00
The problem with with the ideal of "Freedom of choice" and letting people"evaluate their risk" when dealing with a contagious disease is that these people are going to spread it to other people. If someone is allowed to catch the disease than that's their choice sure. But are they also going to be responsible and stay home after they catch it- not go to the grocery store and breath all of over people? The ones who don't give a shit about being careful are not going to be trusted to keep themselves away from other people.

You know these protests do not reflect how the majority of people think right? Two polls, one from Gallup the other from a very respected marketing company.

71% of Americans are not ready to just jump back in to normalcy but are in a wait and see mode to see what happens with this virus.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/308264/americans-remain-risk-averse-getting-back-normal.aspx

"69% saying they can accept extreme limitations for more than a month if it helps to suppress the infection rate. Two-thirds go so far as to say they don't care how long restrictions are in place if it prevents widespread illness and death. ".

https://www.herald-dispatch.com/wcn/wc_news/research-america-americans-are-optimistic-despite-uncertainty-amid-pandemic/article_679a2b77-78b1-544e-925f-30bb42194585.htmlYou are 100% correct about thr freedom of choice argument. That is one of the flaws. I would just counter, that would also allow for the decision to shelter in place. I can choose to avoid situations where I come into contact with those people. In reality, it is not that simple, but conceptually, I am not at any more risk.

As for the polls, well, I take all polls with less than a grain of salt. But right now, the only thing that experiences social pressure more than "stay at home" is mongering. LOL. But seriously, I do not think a majority of people are ready to take to the streets. But the longer this goes, the more desperate people will get. Let's say the polls are right. Can you imagine what our society looks like in a month when that 29% is desperate to find basic necessities. It comes down to fear. Right now we fear this invisible enemy. But put my shelter at risk, put my food supply at risk and this invisible enemy falls on my fear list.

Zeos1
04-17-20, 15:16
We already have the zero social distancing Control groups. Many of them.

The first and best documented is the USS Theodore Roosevelt. Of a crew of 4,800 healthy, young adults, 585 have tested positive, with 100% tested. If they test the remainder again in a few days, we should have a best case number for the percentage of the population susceptible to infection.

The next control group is just about any affected nursing home. I'll use the local one I know and wrote about last week. As of April 14 there has been 1 death. Eight patients and 8 staff have all tested positive, 4 of the patients are hospitalized. This is out of a population of about 60. Once again a follow-up test will be needed to get a worst case scenario.

From these 2, we know that the disease isn't much more contagious than suspected and reported. It also greatly reduces the probability that there have been many more undetected cases than expected.

I seem to recall the experts saying that 60 million US citizens would catch the disease. That number, 18%, falls between the Roosevelt infection rate of 12% and the nursing home rate of 28%. It almost appears as if the experts know what they're talking about.Unfortunately our nursing home experiences have been worse here. Infection rates are running over 50% in some, and deaths are approaching or at 50% in some. But. In some of these homes, especially in those that require a higher level of care, many of the residents have "DNR" orders. And depending on the "do not resuscitate" order they would not be put on ventilators or other invasive procedures, but merely provided with comfort and pain control. So. The percentages that die are high, but it is not known how many of those might have been saved if treated more intensively. Among these nursing homes / retirement homes there have been some horror stories. Low paid staff not showing up for work (understandably), residents / patients neglected horribly, and added deaths. Most of these in the private sector nursing homes.

Nounce
04-17-20, 17:34
We already have the zero social distancing Control groups. Many of them.
I don't know what is your exact definition of "zero social distancing". There are plenty of examples that the whole family got infected from one member. A family is closer to zero social distancing than an aircraft carrier.

I also have question like are the sick sailors allowed to interact with others like usual.

Surfer500
04-17-20, 17:48
Over the past week I've been talking to a lot of Colombianas. I'm finding a widespread sampling. Some are barrio rats, some are upper middle class. I've talked with women from several cities as well.

I'm not seeing desperation. I ask each one how the quarantine is going and I'm not getting panicked answers. I even flat out offered to give 1 girl money to help buy groceries, no strings attached, and she turned it down. They do seem to be getting a little stir crazy. They want to get out to dance and party. But starvation and panic don't seem to be anywhere near.

On the upside, got a girl who wants me to come to Cartagena and visit the islands with her, a girl in Armenia who wants to cook for me, 1 in Bogota who wants to go clubbing, and 2 in Medellin who want to take me to their favorite restaurants.

I believe Colombia isn't about to collapse.I don't know if your aware of this, but on Thursday residents in parts of Bogota gathered to demand authorities provide aid as a result of of the restrictive measures along with roadblocks in parts of Bogota, and security forces deployed tear gas to disperse crowds although no injuries had been reported as of Thursday night.

I have a hard time imagining how the Strata 1 and 2 people are able to survive in Colombia right now, and if things don't get better soon, there will be an uptick in protests, violence, etc. This is just my opinion, and I hope this doesn't happen. Hopefully Colombia will come out of the Pandemic soon and less scarred than other Countries.

Kafka
04-17-20, 20:25
Over the past week I've been talking to a lot of Colombianas. I'm finding a widespread sampling. Some are barrio rats, some are upper middle class. I've talked with women from several cities as well.

I'm not seeing desperation. I ask each one how the quarantine is going and I'm not getting panicked answers. I even flat out offered to give 1 girl money to help buy groceries, no strings attached, and she turned it down. They do seem to be getting a little stir crazy. They want to get out to dance and party. But starvation and panic don't seem to be anywhere near.

On the upside, got a girl who wants me to come to Cartagena and visit the islands with her, a girl in Armenia who wants to cook for me, 1 in Bogota who wants to go clubbing, and 2 in Medellin who want to take me to their favorite restaurants.

I believe Colombia isn't about to collapse.Soi assuming some resumption in travel from the US in July, what would you imagine the situation MIGHT be?

Elvis 2008
04-17-20, 20:46
I'm not seeing desperation. I ask each one how the quarantine is going and I'm not getting panicked answers. I even flat out offered to give 1 girl money to help buy groceries, no strings attached, and she turned it down. They do seem to be getting a little stir crazy. They want to get out to dance and party. But starvation and panic don't seem to be anywhere near.

I believe Colombia isn't about to collapse.That tells me a lot about the women you see in comparison to the ones I do. In one family of a woman I see, both her parents are out of work due to the corona virus, and she is a student. She has been the most desperate. In Bogota, a three income household went to a one income household given that my chica is the only one with an essential job, a nanny. She shot me video of the streets of Bogota, and they were empty. It looked like something out of a Batman movie.

Another has parents who run a clothing store, and they are out of work now. Another, and she was the only income producer in her family, lost her job at a call center.

The single ones I see, who seem to be in school or have work, have low budgets and seem to get by, but even they were complaining as food prices apparently have gone through the roof. As others have attested to, the working girls are still working, the girls who do video chats are still videoing, but the normal people are suffering as they are out of work and their expenses are higher.

I do not know about collapsing but stretched thin? For damned sure!!

Knowledge
04-17-20, 21:35
President Duque is on top of the situation. Yesterday he announced a suspension of utilities payments for anybody in stratas 1 -3 and reduced minimum payments for strata 4. Subsidy cash payments continue. In Antioquia, the governor and the mayor of Medellin formed an alliance with the moradores who run the marginal comunas like Paris, Manrique, etc. These guys are basically gang leaders, the same who were in trouble a few years ago for organizing auctions for neighborhood virgins. Politics makes for strange bedfellows. Anyway, their role is to assist the police controlling movements in the barrios to prevent looting or larger demonstrations. The food handouts are continuing but there have been problems with some of the trucks getting looted. Unfortunately, there are favela like barrios in Bogota and Medellin that don't have access to utilities or government benefits.

What is happening here is understandable. The growing protests in the United States confuse me. As usual, the fringe reactionary element are conflating the quarantine with an erosion of gun rights, the peril of immigrant hordes, and a justification for white supremacist violence.


I don't know if your aware of this, but on Thursday residents in parts of Bogota gathered to demand authorities provide aid as a result of of the restrictive measures along with roadblocks in parts of Bogota, and security forces deployed tear gas to disperse crowds although no injuries had been reported as of Thursday night.

I have a hard time imagining how the Strata 1 and 2 people are able to survive in Colombia right now, and if things don't get better soon, there will be an uptick in protests, violence, etc. This is just my opinion, and I hope this doesn't happen. Hopefully Colombia will come out of the Pandemic soon and less scarred than other Countries.

Combo
04-17-20, 23:26
I don't know if your aware of this, but on Thursday residents in parts of Bogota gathered to demand authorities provide aid as a result of of the restrictive measures along with roadblocks in parts of Bogota, and security forces deployed tear gas to disperse crowds although no injuries had been reported as of Thursday night.

I have a hard time imagining how the Strata 1 and 2 people are able to survive in Colombia right now, and if things don't get better soon, there will be an uptick in protests, violence, etc. This is just my opinion, and I hope this doesn't happen. Hopefully Colombia will come out of the Pandemic soon and less scarred than other Countries.The combination of economic loss plus general stir-craziness from social distancing will cause civil unrest in many parts of the World, including Colombia.

YippieKayay
04-17-20, 23:44
Keep in mind this is only the first wave. The Spanish flu came in three waves. We're expecting a second wave once this one ends.

Mojo Bandit
04-18-20, 01:34
I am not talking about information. I am talking about a public opinion that is growing.

And I have said repeatedly that I would have done exactly as they have said and done.

As the poster pointed out (not me but I agree with it), the number of expected dead per the experts you are talking about has gone from millions to.

60,000. That is a fact.

I don't know why you are giving me a hard time about this.I only mean to disagree with you, Not to just give you a hard time. I apologize if I am too harsh when I disagree with you. If I disagree with any info you post, I will try to respectfully disagree in the future.

Surfer500
04-18-20, 01:36
The combination of economic loss plus general stir-craziness from social distancing will cause civil unrest in many parts of the World, including Colombia.Yep, including the good ole USA, their was a protest today on Main Street in Huntington Beach, California over all of this and it's happening in other States as well.

Fun Luvr
04-18-20, 02:04
Stanford University just did research on the number of Covin-19 infections in Santa Clara County, CA. The research estimates between 48,000 and 81,000 people infected in Santa Clara County by early April, 50-85-fold more than the number of confirmed cases. If the rest of the country is anywhere close to that much under counting, the virus is much more contagious than currently believed, and also much less deadly as a percentage of infections.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20062463v1

Combo
04-18-20, 02:57
Stanford University just did research on the number of Covin-19 infections in Santa Clara County, CA. The research estimates between 48,000 and 81,000 people infected in Santa Clara County by early April, 50-85-fold more than the number of confirmed cases. If the rest of the country is anywhere close to that much under counting, the virus is much more contagious than currently believed, and also much less deadly as a percentage of infections.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20062463v1Well since a lot of people that have it are asymptomatic or only have mild symptoms, you'd have to think there's way more people infected than confirmed cases. A good part of the world's population, especially in densely populated urban areas, may have already come in contact with it.

Just conjecture on my part. I haven't studied this subject like some of you have.

John Clayton
04-18-20, 03:45
...Just conjecture on my part...You're not the only person who has made that conjecture. California had the first reported infections in the US, and yet its death rate is 1/20th that of New York, something that is difficult to explain by social distancing alone. The conjecture is that California was infected much earlier, like in November or December, and that a substatantial percentage of the population has already had and survived the disease. This study suggests that the number is only around 2% to 5%. I'm guessing that eventual serological studies will show a much higher level of previous infections.

YippieKayay
04-18-20, 04:14
You're not the only person who has made that conjecture. California had the first reported infections in the US, and yet its death rate is 1/20th that of New York, something that is difficult to explain by social distancing alone. The conjecture is that California was infected much earlier, like in November or December, and that a substatantial percentage of the population has already had and survived the disease. This study suggests that the number is only around 2% to 5%. I'm guessing that eventual serological studies will show a much higher level of previous infections.Are you saying it ran its course and no one noticed? Because that's unlikely. Look at Italy, France, Spain, New York State, etc.

Both Italy and France have excellent health care. Why did then end up with so many deaths?

John Clayton
04-18-20, 05:14
Are you saying it ran its course and no one noticed? Because that's unlikely. Look at Italy, France, Spain, New York State, etc.

Both Italy and France have excellent health care. Why did then end up with so many deaths?No, not saying it's run it's course. That won't happen until approx 100% of humans have had it. Many factors probably affect infectivity and death rates: social isolation, housing density, smoking, age, mixing of generations in housing, use of public transportation, use of elevators, church attendance, hours of UV light, atmospheric moisture and temperature, I'm saying 1) this probably isn't the zombie apocalypse plague 2) California may have had it for a while. Many have had mild symptoms, and many more may have died, but have had their deaths attributed to something else. I'm guessing, apart from nursing homes, prisons, homeless camps, etc, it won't be very bad here. 3) the disease is probably much, much less deadly than earlier estimates predicted. 4) barring the development of a great vaccine, there is no "winning" against this disease. It is not going away. 5) this is an RNA virus and therefore more mutagenic. There will probably be no single vaccine against it unlike smallpox or polio it's one of the reasons we don't have vaccines against the common cold. Every year it's different. 6) even if you develop antibodies to this virus, you probably won't be immune to next year's variant.

JjBee62
04-18-20, 05:23
I don't know what is your exact definition of "zero social distancing". There are plenty of examples that the whole family got infected from one member. A family is closer to zero social distancing than an aircraft carrier.

I also have question like are the sick sailors allowed to interact with others like usual.The problem on any military ship is that berthing (sleeping areas) are crowded together. The typical arrangement is 3 stacked bunks, all separated by a 30" wide passage. When you sleep, there are a minimum of 11 others sleeping within 6 feet. Also eating, in close quarters.

Sick sailors can he isolated in sick bay, but there's limited space.

The problem with an entire family being infected is it's too small of a group for any statistical relevance. An aircraft carrier is a small city.

Nounce
04-18-20, 05:26
You're not the only person who has made that conjecture. California had the first reported infections in the US, and yet its death rate is 1/20th that of New York, something that is difficult to explain by social distancing alone. The conjecture is that California was infected much earlier, like in November or December, and that a substatantial percentage of the population has already had and survived the disease. This study suggests that the number is only around 2% to 5%. I'm guessing that eventual serological studies will show a much higher level of previous infections.I guess one can infer if New York had acted early like California, the situation would be much better.

JjBee62
04-18-20, 05:32
That tells me a lot about the women you see in comparison to the ones I do. In one family of a woman I see, both her parents are out of work due to the corona virus, and she is a student. She has been the most desperate. In Bogota, a three income household went to a one income household given that my chica is the only one with an essential job, a nanny. She shot me video of the streets of Bogota, and they were empty. It looked like something out of a Batman movie.

Another has parents who run a clothing store, and they are out of work now. Another, and she was the only income producer in her family, lost her job at a call center.

The single ones I see, who seem to be in school or have work, have low budgets and seem to get by, but even they were complaining as food prices apparently have gone through the roof. As others have attested to, the working girls are still working, the girls who do video chats are still videoing, but the normal people are suffering as they are out of work and their expenses are higher.

I do not know about collapsing but stretched thin? For damned sure!!Stretched thin? Absolutely. The thing a lot of people can't relate to is that the poor people live every day stretched thin. They look at their 401 k diving, or their portfolio shrinking and they can't imagine how hard times hit the poor folks. Meanwhile, in the slums it's business as usual.

I've seen lots of reports of price gouging, but I'm guessing it's happening in estrato 4, 5 and 6 areas. A shopkeeper charging 50 k for a 3 k bag of rice will soon have a new job as fertilizer, in an estrato 2 neighborhood.

Fun Luvr
04-18-20, 05:34
Both Italy and France have excellent health care. Why did then end up with so many deaths?A contributing factor in Italy is probably the age of the population there. 71.3% of those who became infected were over 50. 79.7% of the deaths were 70 and over.

JjBee62
04-18-20, 05:38
You're not the only person who has made that conjecture. California had the first reported infections in the US, and yet its death rate is 1/20th that of New York, something that is difficult to explain by social distancing alone. The conjecture is that California was infected much earlier, like in November or December, and that a substatantial percentage of the population has already had and survived the disease. This study suggests that the number is only around 2% to 5%. I'm guessing that eventual serological studies will show a much higher level of previous infections.What were the pneumonia numbers like for November and December? If it ran through California during that period there should have been a corresponding spike in pneumonia cases and deaths.

Fun Luvr
04-18-20, 05:47
I guess one can infer if New York had acted early like California, the situation would be much better.New York went into lock down (shelter in place) one day after California. As someone else noted, it could be caused by the mass transit system in New York.

Elvis 2008
04-18-20, 05:48
I've seen lots of reports of price gouging, but I'm guessing it's happening in estrato 4, 5 and 6 areas. A shopkeeper charging 50 k for a 3 k bag of rice will soon have a new job as fertilizer, in an estrato 2 neighborhood.30 eggs went from 7000 COP to 14,000 COP from before to after the lockdown as an example. It is so little for us but so much for them.

Nounce
04-18-20, 06:02
New York went into lock down (shelter in place) one day after California. As someone else noted, it could be caused by the mass transit system in New York.California already shutdown bars before the lock down you mentioned. When did New York do that? You probably can find announcements timeline on twitter.

California shelter in place is a legal order that can be and is enforced by police. People who violate it can be put in prison. Is that the case for New York?

Many other large cities have mass transit system. This is just a guess. It has not been proven. I don't disagree or agree this makes NYC special or unique.

Woodman09
04-18-20, 10:26
30 eggs went from 7000 COP to 14,000 COP from before to after the lockdown as an example. It is so little for us but so much for them.Actually, eggs and basic food has gone up a bit here downtown in Santa Fe area. And take out food is a bit more because of containers.

YippieKayay
04-18-20, 12:23
Many factors probably affect infectivity and death rates: social isolation, housing density, smoking, age, mixing of generations in housing, use of public transportation, use of elevators, church attendance, hours of UV light, atmospheric moisture and temperatureGood point. Up until this point I paid little attention to things like UV light. I can't think of a warm and sunny place where the death rate is high. Can you? I'm going to assume the high number of deaths in Spain and France were not in the south like Italy.

BTW, Canada is doing mostly well and its not a warm place. Scandinavia as well.

YyzTravel
04-18-20, 12:53
I would not put it past NY to be inflating numbers here for some political / financial / other reasons; It's been made very clear that Cuomo hates Trump; That being said, the density of the elderly in NY comparative to CA is significant. Also, even pre-COVID. Have you been to NY? The level of hygiene there is almost 3rd world in some parts of Manhattan. I remember my first trip there as a kid, and the stink of that place is one of my biggest memories.

John Clayton
04-18-20, 15:22
Good point. Up until this point I paid little attention to things like UV light. I can't think of a warm and sunny place where the death rate is high...Unfortunately, spoiling my warm, sunny idea is Guayaquil, which is right on the equator. I read they have bodies laying on the streets there;.

AZN Monger
04-18-20, 15:32
In my country we live life pretty much as normal except from no big events and no discos / bars. No lockdown needed.You country (Sweden) is doing worse than your neighbors.

Sweden: 136 deaths per million.

Denmark: 58.

Norway: 30.

Finland: 15.

A lot of Swedes take individualism to the extreme and get easily offended when someone has other views.

Zeos1
04-18-20, 16:05
I would not put it past NY to be inflating numbers here for some political / financial / other reasons; It's been made very clear that Cuomo hates Trump; That being said, the density of the elderly in NY comparative to CA is significant. Also, even pre-COVID. Have you been to NY? The level of hygiene there is almost 3rd world in some parts of Manhattan. I remember my first trip there as a kid, and the stink of that place is one of my biggest memories.NY inflating numbers for political reasons? Give your head a shake. Trump is probably happy to see high numbers in any Democrat state, much more likely for him to want to inflate numbers.

But this is actually way beyond politics. It is a virus, various places have done, are doing, various things. I really don't think anyone is intentionally messing with numbers in the USA. But as was / is the case with home deaths, authorities and healthcare workers are busy with trying to keep people alive. Testing bodies for whether they really died of Covid-19 is not the number one priority.

Dcrist0527
04-18-20, 16:45
I really don't think anyone is intentionally messing with numbers in the USA. But as was / is the case with home deaths, authorities and healthcare workers are busy with trying to keep people alive. Testing bodies for whether they really died of Covid-19 is not the number one priority.Then why add them to the numbers? NYs count added in thousands of presumed deaths in one day. I agree, testing corpses does not seem like a priority. But assuming all deaths at home are caused by COVID is absolutely messing with the numbers. Political? Maybe. But clearly, for some reason, there is a desire to inflate the numbers.

Combo
04-18-20, 17:00
New York went into lock down (shelter in place) one day after California. As someone else noted, it could be caused by the mass transit system in New York.Great point. Mass public transit is an ideal form for spreading a very contagious virus. In NYC, a large % of the populace uses mass transit. California is on the opposite end of the spectrum.


NY inflating numbers for political reasons? Give your head a shake. Trump is probably happy to see high numbers in any Democrat state, much more likely for him to want to inflate numbers.

But this is actually way beyond politics. It is a virus, various places have done, are doing, various things. I really don't think anyone is intentionally messing with numbers in the USA. But as was / is the case with home deaths, authorities and healthcare workers are busy with trying to keep people alive. Testing bodies for whether they really died of Covid-19 is not the number one priority.I'm guessing he's talking about inflating numbers to get more federal aid.

Surfer500
04-18-20, 17:45
Last Tuesday Minorista was closed due to a break-out (brote in Spanish) of COVID 19. Today the mayor reported that thru testing they have identified 28 people as positive for COVID 19. My bet is that the true numbers are much higher and is very alarming in that a lot of the poorer Colombians shop there because of the lower prices for food and products. And a lot of these Colombians live in barrios across town with whole families including children to grandparents in the same household. It's frightful to think how bad things might really be with the lack of testing not only in Colombia but in the USA for the time being.

YippieKayay
04-18-20, 18:19
Unfortunately, spoiling my warm, sunny idea is Guayaquil, which is right on the equator. I read they have bodies laying on the streets there;.Yes.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rw7HjrXLe4U

Nounce
04-18-20, 19:16
So I just decided to google it to find the relevant dates. California lockdown is a gradual process so you can't make direct comparison. I hope you see the difference when you view it in context.

California March 15
https://www.sacbee.com/news/business/article241213696.html

https://www.ktvu.com/news/california-gov-newsom-calls-for-home-isolation-for-all-seniors-bars-to-close-restaurants-to-limit-capacity

March 16th, 19th

https://www.sfchronicle.com/local-politics/article/Bay-Area-must-shelter-in-place-Only-15135014.php

https://www.wilmerhale.com/en/insights/client-alerts/20200323-covid-19-an-overview-of-governor-newsoms-statewide-shelter-in-place-order



New York, whatever I found before this date are political power struggle

https://www.pillsburylaw.com/en/news-and-insights/new-york-covid-19-nonessential.html

New York States Governor Cuomo has implemented extraordinary measures to prevent the spread of COVID-19, closing all nonessential businesses effective Sunday, March 22, 2020, at 8 p.m.



Also this comment from the article that I think provide another hint to the problem. I hope I am quoting the text in context correctly. You should read the whole article

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/health/new-york-to-shut-down-as-it-becomes-next-virus-hot-spot


But with the danger an invisible virus instead of billowing smoke or blowing snow, New Yorkers were still gathering in large groups in parks, playing basketball or having block parties. Similar scenes played out around the country.

Cuomo said he was stunned and offended as he toured the city Saturday and gave local officials a day to figure out a plan whether it be closing parks, closing playgrounds or opening streets, typically teeming with traffic but now quiet, only to pedestrians.

Its insensitive. Its arrogant. Its self-destructive. Its disrespectful to other people, Cuomo said. It has to stop and it has to stop now.


You maybe able to find something similar in California but I have not looked.

JanQuadVincent
04-18-20, 19:18
I am reading the very thoughtful debate here and want provide my own input. I stop myself from making them every time though. Because does it matter, does this covid-19 matter fundamentally? I know many (have and) will die in the short-term. All of us here are dead anyways in the long-term. How does this matter then? Did Bubonic plague, Spanish Flue, Small Pox force any fundamental societal change? I don't know. Science and progress seem painfully slow and incremental. Maybe this blip will be different. I hope someone of the many intelligent folks here can enlighten.

Nounce
04-18-20, 19:36
Great point. Mass public transit is an ideal form for spreading a very contagious virus. In NYC, a large % of the populace uses mass transit. California is on the opposite end of the spectrum.

I'm guessing he's talking about inflating numbers to get more federal aid.There is an article about it.

https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/qjdy33/its-easy-but-wrong-to-blame-the-subway-for-the-coronavirus-pandemic

You should read the whole thing. New York's system is large so it is intuitive to think that way but there are many large cities around the world that carry billions more passengers a year.



The second claim overlays the subway map on a map of the city showing infection rates by zip code, with a zoomed in map specifically of the 7 and M/R lines in Manhattan and Queens. The implication of the paper is that once these maps are superimposed one on top of the other, the evidence is obvious and overwhelming that the subway is the culprit because various hotspots overlap with certain subway lines.

But it never provides any actual statistical evidence to back this up.



This map shows clumps and clusters, especially in the outer boroughs, but bears no resemblance to a subway map. Neighborhoods in Staten Island, the north Bronx, eastern Queens, and the Rockaways have high infection rates, but those are areas where the subway is either lightly used compared to the rest of the city or non-existent.


In fact, as one looks at the infection rate map, its easier to eyeball an inverse correlation with the subway map. All subway lines (except for the G and Staten Island Railway) converge in Manhattan, but Manhattan has the lowest infection rates of any borough.

CzarNicholas
04-18-20, 19:49
Explain exactly what it means when you say "and we have to make sure the reaction to the virus is not worse than the virus itself" because from the perspective of everyone I talk to on a daily basis who are pretty knowledgeable about these kinds of things. What you are saying when you say " we have to make sure the reaction to the virus is not worse than the virus itself" is that we are going to have to let thousands of people die so that the economy starts growing again? Thousands of preventable deaths if fact. At what point in history has any people decided that thousands of people who are not soldiers were going to die to improve the quality of my life?

You may say that I am exaggerating. Maybe even being over dramatic, But then there are all those body bags again -.

Ever hear of death panels? Health care is rationed in countries with socialized medicine IE, Europe everyday, many people die, its not a design flaw, its by design.

http://conversableeconomist.********.com/2018/06/whats-value-of-qaly.html

https://www.cebm.net/2014/03/number-needed-to-treat-nnt/ insurance companies make these decisions all the time, as do drug companies, politicians et al.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/12/opinion/coronavirus-hospital-shortage.html

BTW you voted for John McCain? That is not something I would be bragging about LMAO.

In the spirit of fairness and full disclosure I will admit my utter shame in voting for #43 I won't even type that turds name, I'm so ashamed.

TRUMP FOR LIFE.

BTW in the USA these days, just about everyone that has an opinion about anything, has a political slant, including physicians and "scientists".

Show me a scientist that doesn't vote or have strong political opinions.

Everyone is overly interested in what's best for them, out of control self-interest.

Many if not most scientists are democrats, I can cite political science articles if anyone wants.

There are reasons for it, but as you probably can guess, the reasons are mostly in their best self-interest for a variety of reasons.

And yes the scientific community has been tainted by bias, ala Koch brothers sponsored research et al.

Look at the media, its mostly "fake news" I mean pro-globalist nonsense.

Look at most of academia, its has been polluted with money from China.

Sadly yes many times even scientists have an agenda, is it political? LOL probably.

Partisanship is out of control, I won't say I like this but the US supreme court is 5-4 GOP.

For the 1st time in my life, and the democrats are screaming bloody murder that now the court is biased and destroying the court.

But when the court was 5-4 in their favor since FDR (which I respect) stacked the court in their favor for the last 75 yrs that was OK.

When it pushed thru bullshit ruling after bullshit ruling onto the unhappy populace for the last 75 yrs.

The court wasn't biased then LMAO no of course not.

CzarNicholas
04-18-20, 20:47
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/18/health/coronavirus-america-future.html

YippieKayay
04-18-20, 22:23
I am reading the very thoughtful debate here and want provide my own input. I stop myself from making them every time though. Because does it matter, does this covid-19 matter fundamentally? I know many (have and) will die in the short-term. All of us here are dead anyways in the long-term. How does this matter then? Did Bubonic plague, Spanish Flue, Small Pox force any fundamental societal change? I don't know. Science and progress seem painfully slow and incremental. Maybe this blip will be different. I hope someone of the many intelligent folks here can enlighten.Yes its clearly a blip. Clearly, the Spanish Flu (which killed between 75 million and 100 million because governments were slow to act), the Bubonic plague, and all these events are just blips. Book your flights to Colombia in July. It's all just a blip. People are overreacting.

EDIT:

OK enough with my sarcasm. Since February 15th, 38,779 people have died in the US and are confirmed cases of COVID-19. It's the leading killer of people in the US. Public enemy number 1. And this is WITH social distancing and all the other measures. Does that bring some perspective?

Combo
04-18-20, 22:30
Yes its clearly a blip. Clearly, the Spanish Flu (which killed between 75 million and 100 million because governments were slow to act), the Bubonic plague, and all these events are just blips. Book your flights to Colombia in July. It's all just a blip. People are overreacting.In the grand scheme of things everything's just a blip. In the 4 billion or so years the World has existed, the last millennium is a blip. So using OP's logic, nothing matters.

Dcrist0527
04-18-20, 22:51
Explain exactly what it means when you say "and we have to make sure the reaction to the virus is not worse than the virus itself" because from the perspective of everyone I talk to on a daily basis who are pretty knowledgeable about these kinds of things. What you are saying when you say " we have to make sure the reaction to the virus is not worse than the virus itself" is that we are going to have to let thousands of people die so that the economy starts growing again? Thousands of preventable deaths if fact. At what point in history has any people decided that thousands of people who are not soldiers were going to die to improve the quality of my life?

You may say that I am exaggerating. Maybe even being over dramatic, But then there are all those body bags again -.I don't think you are exaggerating at all. But I do think you are ignoring or at least understating the impact of an unprecedented economic collapse. Because, sadly, there is death in any path we choose. Everyone uses the word "economy". It dehumanizes the impact. Well, a shuttered economy equates to starvation. To homelessness. To tens of millions of people losing access to affordable healthcare. And what does malnourishment and poor healthcare lead to? Death and despair.

Maybe I am being dramatic too. But I think that is a very real and more likely outcome the longer the shutdown continues. And I appreciate the death panel argument. But are we not doing the same thing by somewhat arbitrarily claiming various groups as non-essential and banishing them from earning a living?

Combo
04-18-20, 22:53
Yes, everyone has a view. I agree, there's no such thing as a "neutral" source.

As far as the "reaction being worse than the virus itself," I'll give that a shot. Milions of small business around the World (and some large ones also) will go under from the lockdowns being imposed. Many people will lose not only an income, but something they have worked for all their lives. This will cause a lot of genuine misery and sometimes even death, as suicide will be the choice of some. I would also expect the emotional pain / loneliness of social isolation to cause some to take their lives.

If you say that governments can make these people economically "whole" (IMO feasible for some large business, but not really for most small businesses), there is a cost to that also as countries around the World go more into debt and / or money creation, which ultimately could cause serious problems.

Philosphically there's always some tradeoff between progress / wellbeing for society (which in itself may ultimately save some lives) and a certain amount of deaths. Right now, the people of the World are between a rock and a hard place. I don't know the ideal solution. Car accidents kill thousands per year (plus the damage the pollution does). But being able to drive a car is a really nice thing for most people. We make that choice.


Explain exactly what it means when you say "and we have to make sure the reaction to the virus is not worse than the virus itself" because from the perspective of everyone I talk to on a daily basis who are pretty knowledgeable about these kinds of things. What you are saying when you say " we have to make sure the reaction to the virus is not worse than the virus itself" is that we are going to have to let thousands of people die so that the economy starts growing again? Thousands of preventable deaths if fact. At what point in history has any people decided that thousands of people who are not soldiers were going to die to improve the quality of my life?

You may say that I am exaggerating. Maybe even being over dramatic, But then there are all those body bags again -.

Ever hear of death panels? Health care is rationed in countries with socialized medicine IE, Europe everyday, many people die, its not a design flaw, its by design.

http://conversableeconomist.********.com/2018/06/whats-value-of-qaly.html

https://www.cebm.net/2014/03/number-needed-to-treat-nnt/ insurance companies make these decisions all the time, as do drug companies, politicians et al.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/12/opinion/coronavirus-hospital-shortage.html

BTW you voted for John McCain? That is not something I would be bragging about LMAO.

In the spirit of fairness and full disclosure I will admit my utter shame in voting for #43 I won't even type that turds name, I'm so ashamed.

TRUMP FOR LIFE.

BTW in the USA these days, just about everyone that has an opinion about anything, has a political slant, including physicians and "scientists".

Show me a scientist that doesn't vote or have strong political opinions.

Everyone is overly interested in what's best for them, out of control self-interest.

Many if not most scientists are democrats, I can cite political science articles if anyone wants.

There are reasons for it, but as you probably can guess, the reasons are mostly in their best self-interest for a variety of reasons.

And yes the scientific community has been tainted by bias, ala Koch brothers sponsored research et al.

Look at the media, its mostly "fake news" I mean pro-globalist nonsense.

Look at most of academia, its has been polluted with money from China.

Sadly yes many times even scientists have an agenda, is it political? LOL probably.

Partisanship is out of control, I won't say I like this but the US supreme court is 5-4 GOP.

For the 1st time in my life, and the democrats are screaming bloody murder that now the court is biased and destroying the court.

But when the court was 5-4 in their favor since FDR (which I respect) stacked the court in their favor for the last 75 yrs that was OK.

When it pushed thru bullshit ruling after bullshit ruling onto the unhappy populace for the last 75 yrs.

The court wasn't biased then LMAO no of course not.

Fun Luvr
04-18-20, 22:56
... What you are saying when you say " we have to make sure the reaction to the virus is not worse than the virus itself" is that we are going to have to let thousands of people die so that the economy starts growing again? Thousands of preventable deaths if fact. At what point in history has any people decided that thousands of people who are not soldiers were going to die to improve the quality of my life? ...We already do that. Would you be okay with everyone giving up their private automobile and commute only with public transportation? Deaths due to automobile accidents are approximately 40,000 each year in the US. Also, how about limiting what food you can buy? Many people die because of the effects on their bodies of their selection of food. Average life expectancy has gone down in the US in the last few years. I think that is primarily due to unhealthy eating habits. Those are just a couple of examples of risks we accept for the improvement of quality of life. There are many other problems that arise when people don't have any means to get money to buy the necessities of life. The government checks can't continue if the government is not receiving any money. Well, the checks can continue, but then our monetary units would be like those of Venezuela and Iran.

YippieKayay
04-18-20, 22:59
Deaths due to automobile accidents are approximately 40,000 each year in the US.We're already at 38 k deaths in two months with the lock down. Do you see how you're wrong? This isn't the flu. This isn't automobile accidents. Can you accept that we have a deadly pandemic spreading that is killing a lot of people very quickly despite our best efforts?

Zeos1
04-18-20, 23:02
Then why add them to the numbers? NYs count added in thousands of presumed deaths in one day. I agree, testing corpses does not seem like a priority. But assuming all deaths at home are caused by COVID is absolutely messing with the numbers. Political? Maybe. But clearly, for some reason, there is a desire to inflate the numbers.The "at home" deaths attributed to Covid-19 were just catch-up to what was known. Not all home deaths were attributed to Covid. Many are due to other causes. However the when there are 3 or 4 times the numbers as compared to the same period other years something is clearly different. And when these people are reported to have Covid symptoms. Chances are they are related deaths.

Same when China updated their numbers yesterday. If anything there is a great desire in the US to minimize numbers. People will lose their jobs if the numbers are high.

Dcrist0527
04-18-20, 23:05
Yes its clearly a blip. Clearly, the Spanish Flu (which killed between 75 million and 100 million because governments were slow to act), the Bubonic plague, and all these events are just blips. Book your flights to Colombia in July. It's all just a blip. People are overreacting.

EDIT:

OK enough with my sarcasm. Since February 15th, 38,779 people have died in the US and are confirmed cases of COVID-19. It's the leading killer of people in the US. Public enemy number 1. And this is WITH social distancing and all the other measures. Does that bring some perspective?38 K. 100 million. Yes, it adds a lot of perspective.

Dcrist0527
04-18-20, 23:16
The "at home" deaths attributed to Covid-19 were just catch-up to what was known. Not all home deaths were attributed to Covid. Many are due to other causes. However the when there are 3 or 4 times the numbers as compared to the same period other years something is clearly different. And when these people are reported to have Covid symptoms. Chances are they are related deaths.

Same when China updated their numbers yesterday. If anything there is a great desire in the US to minimize numbers. People will lose their jobs if the numbers are high.Don't get me wrong, though I have absolutely no independent knowledge, I suspect many are from Covid. My point is it makes the numbers less accurate. And adding them in aids in alarming.

Do people in the US want the numbers higher or lower? You'll see people in both camps. But what I have a better appreciation for is the power of fear. And I'm not saying it is unfounded. But there is a percentage of the population that is fearful beyond what is rational. I don't say that critically, but more out of concern. Sadly, I believe there are people that will likely not leave their house for years on end. I work with a few. And I really do not believe it is just talk. We have a few on this board that are at that point, though I hope it is just talk in their case. And that, more than any other reason, is why I detest the fear merchants.

So many "experts" are called on for spin. Some are called on to declare human extinction. And some are called on to pretend nothing is wrong. Watch these so called experts. Very few moderate their tone or message.

Fun Luvr
04-18-20, 23:26
We're already at 38 k deaths in two months with the lock down. Do you see how you're wrong? This isn't the flu. This isn't automobile accidents. Can you accept that we have a deadly pandemic spreading that is killing a lot of people very quickly despite our best efforts?Why are you so dense? I was not comparing any numbers. I gave examples of things we do that improve our quality of life and also cause death. The information I posted is not wrong.

YippieKayay
04-18-20, 23:42
Why are you so dense? I was not comparing any numbers. I gave examples of things we do that improve our quality of life and also cause death. The information I posted is not wrong.Right. Let's let more people die to improve the quality of our lives. If we end the lock down prematurely how do you think this will play out? Would you like 100 k deaths a month? Would that be too much?

Accept reality.

John Clayton
04-19-20, 00:19
...Can you accept that we have a deadly pandemic spreading that is killing a lot of people very quickly despite our best efforts?I acccept that it is a pandemic, but not that it is particularly deadly.

YippieKayay
04-19-20, 00:23
I acccept that it is a pandemic, but not that it is particularly deadly.Wait for the second wave. Just wait. 1919 was the deadliest year in modern history. Not 1918. More people died from the Spanish flu in 1919 than combined during WWI and WWII.

JanQuadVincent
04-19-20, 00:23
Yes its clearly a blip. Clearly, the Spanish Flu (which killed between 75 million and 100 million because governments were slow to act), the Bubonic plague, and all these events are just blips. Book your flights to Colombia in July. It's all just a blip. People are overreacting.

EDIT:

OK enough with my sarcasm. Since February 15th, 38,779 people have died in the US and are confirmed cases of COVID-19. It's the leading killer of people in the US. Public enemy number 1. And this is WITH social distancing and all the other measures. Does that bring some perspective?Is not dying the purpose of living? Could very well be the basis of all the games we play. I don't know. Still, people do go to die in battles, play with danger as hobby or profession. Put their lives on the line. Sacrifice. I want to believe there is more to a person than just being alive.

Fun Luvr
04-19-20, 01:21
Massachusetts General Hospital physicians ran a pilot study on 200 random people on the street in Chelsea, MA. Of 200 people tested, 64 tested positive for antibodies linked to COVID-19. https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/04/17/business/nearly-third-200-blood-samples-taken-chelsea-show-exposure-coronavirus/.

In Ohio, officials tested 152 inmates at the Marion Correctional Institution, 39 percent of them tested positive without showing symptoms.

It is possible herd immunity is having an effect on flattening the curve.

Combo
04-19-20, 01:29
Massachusetts General Hospital physicians ran a pilot study on 200 random people on the street in Chelsea, MA. Of 200 people tested, 64 tested positive for antibodies linked to COVID-19. https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/04/17/business/nearly-third-200-blood-samples-taken-chelsea-show-exposure-coronavirus/.

In Ohio, officials tested 152 inmates at the Marion Correctional Institution, 39 percent of them tested positive without showing symptoms.

It is possible herd immunity is having an effect on flattening the curve.Let's hope so.

YippieKayay
04-19-20, 02:02
Massachusetts General Hospital physicians ran a pilot study on 200 random people on the street in Chelsea, MA. Of 200 people tested, 64 tested positive for antibodies linked to COVID-19. https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/04/17/business/nearly-third-200-blood-samples-taken-chelsea-show-exposure-coronavirus/.

In Ohio, officials tested 152 inmates at the Marion Correctional Institution, 39 percent of them tested positive without showing symptoms.

It is possible herd immunity is having an effect on flattening the curve.No. The R0 is 2. 2. 39 percent won't give you herd immunity. You need a minimum of 60%.

ShooBree
04-19-20, 02:38
Right. Let's let more people die to improve the quality of our lives. If we end the lock down prematurely how do you think this will play out? Would you like 100 k deaths a month? Would that be too much?

Accept reality.Just in the US 22 million lost their jobs in four weeks! How do you think that will work out? How many should be unemployed? 80 percent?

How many small businesses owners should go belly up? 100 percent?

[Deleted by Admin]

The virus isn't mortal enough to destroy the lives for tens of millions. The lockdowns are destroying people's lives.

Fun Luvr
04-19-20, 03:14
No. The R0 is 2. 2. 39 percent won't give you herd immunity. You need a minimum of 60%.Are you posting just to raise your number of posts? I don't think you have ever posted anything that has been beneficial to this community. You can't flip a switch and have herd immunity. It is developed starting at zero.

John Clayton
04-19-20, 03:51
No. The R0 is 2. 2...A made up number. We don't know.

Mojo Bandit
04-19-20, 03:53
Virus Vaccine May Be Ready for Mass Production By Autumn, Oxford Professor Says.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-17/oxford-vaccine-veteran-lays-out-coronavirus-immunization-plans

Dcrist0527
04-19-20, 03:54
Wait for the second wave. Just wait. 1919 was the deadliest year in modern history. Not 1918. More people died from the Spanish flu in 1919 than combined during WWI and WWII.I predict the hysteria over a second wave will paralyze us for months. First, no one is certain this is seasonal. No one can be certain of a second wave. And God knows their predictions for the first wave were off by a mere 400%. Also, comparing this virus to a virus nearly 100 years ago is just foolish in my mind. Just the advances in medication alone make that an illogical comparison.

This is just another example of alarmism. Do I know it won't happen? Of course not. But I'm not buying armageddon is coming either, based on their flawed predictions of the last month.

Dcrist0527
04-19-20, 04:01
Virus Vaccine May Be Ready for Mass Production By Autumn, Oxford Professor Says.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-17/oxford-vaccine-veteran-lays-out-coronavirus-immunization-plansI am no expert on clinical trials. But here's hoping these promising efforts do not have to worry about money. I would hope production would be ramped up even before final approval for the most promising vaccines. Yes, we'll undoubtedly waste untold millions. (Again, not educated to know the steps / process.) But a vaccine really is our only hope.

Combo
04-19-20, 04:08
Virus Vaccine May Be Ready for Mass Production By Autumn, Oxford Professor Says.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-17/oxford-vaccine-veteran-lays-out-coronavirus-immunization-plansI won't be first in line to try it.

Elvis 2008
04-19-20, 04:11
https://communalnews.com/coronavirus-duque-announces-ten-commandments-of-intelligent-isolation/

Colombian president allowed 10 commandments of Isolation:

First, he said that "children and youth should be at home at least until May 30. " The should not go to universities, nor schools, nor gardens, so that they do not become sources of distribution, he said.

The second, he said, is that "adults over 70 years of age, very judiciously, should also be kept at home until the end of May. " On the third aspect, the President noted that "people who have a background, which makes them vulnerable to the virus, should also stay home. ".

The fourth and fifth points are related to air transport. He said that the closure of the borders should be maintained, while on domestic flights, he advocated not opening them until an assessment is made when the emergency situation is over. With regard to the sixth aspect, the President reiterated that public events, discos and bars cannot be reopened.

It looks it will be at least June before Colombia re-opens.

Nounce
04-19-20, 07:27
Are you posting just to raise your number of posts? I don't think you have ever posted anything that has been beneficial to this community. Haha, sorry I have to take side here. YK has posted a lot of useful info on Cartagena. His advice on stock recently is also a good if you take the long view.

Mojo Bandit
04-19-20, 10:06
Are you posting just to raise your number of posts? I don't think you have ever posted anything that has been beneficial to this community. You can't flip a switch and have herd immunity. It is developed starting at zero.YippieKayay is like a resident Colombian expert. YOu must not have been reading the Colombian Forum for very long.

Mojo Bandit
04-19-20, 10:31
As I recently posted, I have lost coworkers to this damn virus, one I considered a friend. Neither of whom had were elderly nor had any serious health conditions, at least not that had been diagnosed, Its one thing to say that the economics is desperate and we may have to risk more people dying to keep others from starving to death. These are subjective but somewhat valid arguments.

I am just not in the mood to read nonchalant attitudes about people dying. Let alone if it almost sounds like you are encouraging it, If you do not have any respect for the people losing their lives I do not want to hear about it, You can post about that somewhere else, So I will be deleting these. If anyone has a problem with that they are welcome to go start their own blog.

If you are so inclined feel free to send me all the private messages cussing me out that you want but it will not be here in this blog.

Knowledge
04-19-20, 13:10
I don't notice this blog has much to do with Colombia. I do find it a revealing window into preconceptions, pet peeves, phobias, and neuroses punctuated with links to statistics of uneven context. The occasional episodes of ad hominem attacks are disappointing but I expect that they will decrease with the return of access to regular sexual release.

Ty Down
04-19-20, 14:14
It's unbelievable what is happening. The Federal Reserve is projecting over 42 million unemployed by June 2020. The coming worldwide depression will kill millions, maybe even billions, over a stupid virus. I tell you what, the powers that be know what's coming, and we are being conditioned to stay at home and starve, have you seen what is going on in the agricultural world? Dumping milk, dumping produce, meat products are being fazed out, farmers are being told to stop farming. I hope you like Soylent Green.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LPRMdCSFI8E&t=4s

Knowledge
04-19-20, 14:26
What are your primary sources of news and economic data?


It's unbelievable what is happening. The Federal Reserve is projecting over 42 million unemployed by June 2020. The coming worldwide depression will kill millions, maybe even billions, over a stupid virus. I tell you what, the powers that be know what's coming, and we are being conditioned to stay at home and starve, have you seen what is going on in the agricultural world? Dumping milk, dumping produce, meat products are being fazed out, farmers are being told to stop farming. I hope you like Soylent Green.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LPRMdCSFI8E&t=4s

JjBee62
04-19-20, 15:44
https://communalnews.com/coronavirus-duque-announces-ten-commandments-of-intelligent-isolation/

Colombian president allowed 10 commandments of Isolation:

First, he said that "children and youth should be at home at least until May 30. " The should not go to universities, nor schools, nor gardens, so that they do not become sources of distribution, he said.

The second, he said, is that "adults over 70 years of age, very judiciously, should also be kept at home until the end of May. " On the third aspect, the President noted that "people who have a background, which makes them vulnerable to the virus, should also stay home. "..I'm thinking around the end of July. You've got Colombia to consider first. Duque appears to be holding firm, so probably easing back up to speed throughout June. Then there's the US to consider. I can see US restrictions mostly disappearing by the end of May, but whether or not other countries are going to allow in US passengers is another story. Then there are the stopovers, Panama for example. If you're switching planes in a place where things are still out of control, will Colombia let you in?

There will probably be an initial 14 day mandatory quarantine, but hopefully that will be removed before too long.

On another note, you and others may be right. Although it hasn't been peer-reviewed yet, and the scope is too narrow for statistical reliability, A Stanford University study found a higher rate of antibodies in the population than expected. Larger scale studies are either underway or planned.

It's not the Holy Grail. It potentially drops mortality rate down to only twice as high as the flu. However, it also demonstrates a much higher and quicker spread than the flu. So, it's (probably) less deadly than expected, but will infect more people, keeping the total number of deaths high.

We also don't yet know how effective those antibodies are against reinfection.

Combo
04-19-20, 16:25
It's unbelievable what is happening. The Federal Reserve is projecting over 42 million unemployed by June 2020. The coming worldwide depression will kill millions, maybe even billions, over a stupid virus. I tell you what, the powers that be know what's coming, and we are being conditioned to stay at home and starve, have you seen what is going on in the agricultural world? Dumping milk, dumping produce, meat products are being fazed out, farmers are being told to stop farming. I hope you like Soylent Green.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LPRMdCSFI8E&t=4sThat "stupid virus" is killing a lot of people. Was the Spanish Flu a stupid virus also?

I don't know what the best course of action is and I don't think anyone does. This is the epitome of "between a rock and a hard place.” Unless there’s a dramatic medical advance or herd immunity develops very quickly, the World is in for a rough going.

John Clayton
04-19-20, 16:33
...over a stupid virus...Actually, a very clever virus. The purpose of CV is to survive and spread itself, which it is very, very good at doing.

Surfer500
04-19-20, 16:52
https://communalnews.com/coronavirus-duque-announces-ten-commandments-of-intelligent-isolation/

It looks it will be at least June before Colombia re-opens.I highly doubt that Colombia will be opening up anytime soon, at least for International travel unless the airlines in concert with the Government instigate a COVID 19 test requirement either before boarding, like Emirates, or upon arrival in Japan and Singapore. I would be very surprised to see Colombia allowing anyone in the Country moving forward just based on a temperature check and self quarantine for two weeks upon arrival.

I also don't see Colombia testing passengers upon arrival, hence it will fall on the airlines to do so, and provide a certification acceptable to the Colombian government. That's of course if the airlines are still in business, and I am not sure if Avianca and / or COPA will still be around when it gets figured out. I don't know what measures the Colombia and Panama Governments are doing to help these carriers like the USA has done for it's carriers.

So lets say Colombia gets past the hurdle of getting people back into the Country, at this point, if they don't have the virus under control, who besides mongers are going want to return.

Unfortunately, and I have resigned myself that short of a vaccine, Colombia for me is going to be a "no go" which I am not happy about.

Maybe somebody has an alternative outlook or take on this.

Ty Down
04-19-20, 17:51
Actually, a very clever virus. The purpose of CV is to survive and spread itself, which it is very, very good at doing.You're absolutely correct, the coronavirus has been around since the beginning of time, nothing new with here. The survival rate of people infected with Corona-19 is +99% . My point is, Why crash the Global economy? The common Flu is more dangerous. I'm calling bullshit on this one, there is something else going on that they are not telling us.

JjBee62
04-19-20, 17:51
This explains a lot about what researchers are finding.

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/04/how-does-coronavirus-kill-clinicians-trace-ferocious-rampage-through-body-brain-toes

Ty Down
04-19-20, 17:57
That "stupid virus" is killing a lot of people. Was the Spanish Flu a stupid virus also?

I don't know what the best course of action is and I don't think anyone does. This is the epitome of "between a rock and a hard place. Unless theres a dramatic medical advance or herd immunity develops very quickly, the World is in for a rough going.Of course neither is "Stupid" I'm just venting some frustration with this whole shit show. IMO there has been an huge over reaction to this virus, and the Media has been pouring gas on this frenzy since day one. Now that the global supply chains are getting shit stuffed, who knows where this is going to go.

DramaFree11
04-19-20, 18:04
You're absolutely correct, the coronavirus has been around since the beginning of time, nothing new with here. The survival rate of people infected with Corona-19 is +99% . My point is, Why crash the Global economy? The common Flu is more dangerous. I'm calling bullshit on this one, there is something else going on that they are not telling us.You are correct, in Texas we have had less then 400 deaths, and yes one is too many, but this in insanity. On average day in Texas we have 10-2 O murders, probably more. This does not count suicide or drug overdoses. We do not stop the economy for murders or overdose, which is a much bigger problem. Just makes no sense.

ShooBree
04-19-20, 18:37
You country (Sweden) is doing worse than your neighbors.

Sweden: 136 deaths per million.

Denmark: 58.

Norway: 30.

Finland: 15.

A lot of Swedes take individualism to the extreme and get easily offended when someone has other views.Oh, so you are cherry-picking. Why are you stalking me and so obsessed by giving a inaccurate picture of things?

Belgium 490 deaths per million.

Netherlands 215.

Switzerland 156.

Sweden 150.

I don't even have to mention Italy (437), Spain (391) or France (302).

And that without any lockdown, it's called winning.

The problem with you is called Dunning-Kruger.

Ty Down
04-19-20, 19:05
What are your primary sources of news and economic data?The Federal Reserve meeting notes at 2:45 in this video - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LPRMdCSFI8E.

Blue Touch
04-19-20, 19:48
To our perceptions and ways of understanding, they look like clever. However, virus, including Covid19, have no brain or consciousness. So they don't have purpose or intelligence. In contrast to bacteria, virus are not even organisms with life. Throughout centuries of evolutionary process, only the virus with a behavior that made them spread outlasted and survived.


Actually, a very clever virus. The purpose of CV is to survive and spread itself, which it is very, very good at doing.

Kafka
04-19-20, 19:54
I'm thinking around the end of July. You've got Colombia to consider first. Duque appears to be holding firm, so probably easing back up to speed throughout June. Then there's the US to consider. I can see US restrictions mostly disappearing by the end of May, but whether or not other countries are going to allow in US passengers is another story. Then there are the stopovers, Panama for example. If you're switching planes in a place where things are still out of control, will Colombia let you in?

There will probably be an initial 14 day mandatory quarantine, but hopefully that will be removed before too long.

On another note, you and others may be right. Although it hasn't been peer-reviewed yet, and the scope is too narrow for statistical reliability, A Stanford University study found a higher rate of antibodies in the population than expected. Larger scale studies are either underway or planned.

It's not the Holy Grail. It potentially drops mortality rate down to only twice as high as the flu. However, it also demonstrates a much higher and quicker spread than the flu. So, it's (probably) less deadly than expected, but will infect more people, keeping the total number of deaths high.

We also don't yet know how effective those antibodies are against reinfection.I agree with all of this in a few months we're going to know a lot more about this disease and the governments are going to issue guidelines. There is definitely a possibility that airlines will be doing testing if anything they will add that cost to your ticket but airlines want to get back running as soon as possible. My personal feeling is it travel maybe possible late July / August without any quarantine restrictions. If not that definitely by October.

Zeos1
04-19-20, 20:07
You're absolutely correct, the coronavirus has been around since the beginning of time, nothing new with here. The survival rate of people infected with Corona-19 is +99% . My point is, Why crash the Global economy? The common Flu is more dangerous. I'm calling bullshit on this one, there is something else going on that they are not telling us.How can you believe the stuff you're reading. Common flu more dangerous? When did a flu double every few days (as little as 4 days) and kill up to 4% of the people it infected. And kill 40,000 people in about a month in one country. I'm calling bullshit on you.

Of course there have been many different coronaviruses. It's a family of viruses including the common cold. But this new one is a very bad one. And without the measures that have been taken the deaths would have been many many times greater.

Elvis 2008
04-19-20, 20:45
On another note, you and others may be right. Although it hasn't been peer-reviewed yet, and the scope is too narrow for statistical reliability, A Stanford University study found a higher rate of antibodies in the population than expected. Larger scale studies are either underway or planned.

It's not the Holy Grail. It potentially drops mortality rate down to only twice as high as the flu. However, it also demonstrates a much higher and quicker spread than the flu. So, it's (probably) less deadly than expected, but will infect more people, keeping the total number of deaths high.

We also don't yet know how effective those antibodies are against reinfection.I am not sure how sensitive the antibodies test is. The Covid test has only 70% sensitivity which would mean an even higher number. I am a little annoyed with the certainty with which so called scientists are predicting the second wave. It is almost like they got all this attention and still want to dominate the headlines.

We do not really have a good placebo control group, but I think Sweden versus its neighbors will be interesting. My opinion, really it was more of a feeling, is that the virus was so contagious that I am not sure how much social isolation helped. Sweden did not go overboard with isolation and has twice as many cases of the virus and deaths as their neighbors. Will that trend hold true once the other countries loosen up their isolation? If the trend holds, then that is good evidence that social isolation worked. If not, then it would lead me to believe that the only benefit of social isolation was not stopping the virus but slowing the spread at best. We shall see.

Anecdotally, there was a church near me where the preacher and his wife were sick and gave a sermon. They tested +. It has been over two weeks since the sermon, and the town was bracing for a huge outbreak after that. Everyone who went to the church and got symptoms got to be automatically tested. Three other people tested + and they all had mild symptoms. One person in that city, who got the virus and didn't go to church, was 89 and he was placed on hospice. So in this city, where people are not on top of each other like NYC, the amount of people who got sick was truly underwhelming.

I was in Mexico and had to scurry home because of talk of the Mexican border being shut down to all but essential services. Well, you can see for sure now that there was no reason for that. If you look at all of the counties in Texas and even into New Mexico touching Mexico, there have been only 50 deaths from the virus on the USA Side. Given the virus is organically growing everywhere now, I really do not get the concept of shutting down borders.

I think people who mock others who say "this is just the flu" do not understand how deadly "just the flu" can be. 20% of all cold viruses are in the corona family, and it kills tens of thousands of people every year. Was this virus super infectious? Super deadly? Or both? If the death rate turns out to really be 0. 2% versus 0. 1%, then do we really need to go crazy with all these precautions? The whole reason for social isolation, which seems to be forgotten now, was to flatten the curve so health care facilities were not overwhelmed. Well, we seemed to have crossed that threshold. Shouldn't the isolation start winding down now then?

This whole concept that we have to stay in isolation forever so you do not get a virus is crazy. Hell, if we cared so much about stopping deadly viruses from spreading, shouldn't we ban group day care and schools in general? That is where viruses typically grow. You could probably cut the annual death rate from influenza in half if you banned group daycare and elementary schools, but we keep them open because the benefit outweighs the risk.

Nounce
04-19-20, 20:48
I highly doubt that Colombia will be opening up anytime soonWould you choose to stay or leave if you had another chance?

Elvis 2008
04-19-20, 21:07
How can you believe the stuff you're reading. Common flu more dangerous? When did a flu double every few days (as little as 4 days) and kill up to 4% of the people it infected. And kill 40,000 people in about a month in one country. I'm calling bullshit on you.Zeos in 2017 the virus killed 80,000. It is possible that this flu was not more deadly but one helluva lot more infectious. That would mean the deaths and infections would rise sharply and fall sharply.

Nounce
04-19-20, 21:09
I am not sure how much social isolation helped. Sweden did not go overboard with isolation and has twice as many cases of the virus and deaths as their neighbors. Will that trend hold true once the other countries loosen up their isolation? If the trend holds, then that is good evidence that social isolation worked. If not, then it would lead me to believe that the only benefit of social isolation was not stopping the virus but slowing the spread at best. We shall see.I think it has to do with how early you start the social isolation, and what is the cost? There probably is a point when the cost won't justify, then it may be considered like flu.

It is easier to evaluate immediate death number but it is difficult to evaluate long term pain, or death. How does one equate death with the amount of pain? Think about why some people commit suicide for various reasons. Why not just live and endure pain no matter how great it is?

Fun Luvr
04-19-20, 21:16
YippieKayay is like a resident Colombian expert. YOu must not have been reading the Colombian Forum for very long.I have been reading this forum since before YippieKayay made his first post. Remember when he got ripped out going to Cartagena? You can have your opinion of an expect, and I will have mine. I think mine are more reliable.

Villainy
04-19-20, 21:23
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/18/health/coronavirus-america-future.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share

I read this article this morning and it gives a fascinating outlook on what can happen.

Nounce
04-19-20, 22:05
t's not the Holy Grail. It potentially drops mortality rate down to only twice as high as the flu. However, it also demonstrates a much higher and quicker spread than the flu. So, it's (probably) less deadly than expected, but will infect more people, keeping the total number of deaths high.I think this solution does not consider a single mortality rate. It thinks there are two, one for high risk group, one for low risk group. It must have assumed the mortality rate of the low risk group is closer to mortality rate of flu. Or I will use a different number for argument's sake. Total number of deaths per 10 K residents (infected or not) for the low risk group is similar to flu.

If the above assumption is true or everyone can agree on, considering the amount of money US is spending, one extreme way the US can do is to quarantine the high risk group in the best hotels available free. Everyone in high risk group get early retirement with full retirement benefit or paid medical leave with job guarantee.

ChuchoLoco
04-19-20, 22:20
Zeos in 2017 the virus killed 80,000. It is possible that this flu was not more deadly but one helluva lot more infectious. That would mean the deaths and infections would rise sharply and fall sharply.Is that number USA Only or worldwide?

Surfer500
04-19-20, 22:48
Would you choose to stay or leave if you had another chance?That's a good question which I have been contemplating now for a while.

My biggest concern about returning would be what type of healthcare I would get if I got infected and had to be hospitalized there. My plan is to wait until Colombia finally opens up again and I am assuming it's going to be a while, at least a few months. On that date who knows, maybe a readily available cure will be available, such as, Oh you have the clap, bend over, get a shot, and in few days your better. Highly unlikely though but who knows, I'm also going to get the anti-body test when Colombia formally opens back up, and if by some miracle I already had the virus and there's some evidence that I have immunity which isn't clear yet I will immediately return.

Again my biggest concern about returning would be having to be hospitalized. Yes there are some top notch Hospitals in Medellin, but they are just not going to have as much access to everything including treatments, etc. Like in the USA. I know others may differ on this, but you need to ask yourself, if your going to land up in a Hospital, and not by choice, where would you rather be.

On a optimistic note, as bad as this Pandemic is, and the wrath it has caused, the entire planets medical scientists and researchers are trying to come up with treatments / cure and a vaccine for the Virus. So with so many people working on it, hopefully by no later than sometime next year there will be a vaccine and things can return closer to normal.

Nounce
04-19-20, 23:54
Unfortunately, spoiling my warm, sunny idea is Guayaquil, which is right on the equator. I read they have bodies laying on the streets there;.There is an article about it.

https://news.yahoo.com/sunlight-destroys-coronavirus-very-quickly-new-government-tests-find-but-experts-say-pandemic-could-still-last-through-summer-200745675.html

ShooBree
04-20-20, 00:08
Belgium 490 deaths per million.

Netherlands 215.

Switzerland 156.

Sweden 150.

I don't even have to mention Italy (437), Spain (391) or France (302).

And that without any lockdown, it's called winning.

TurdyCurdyOne
04-20-20, 01:00
The problem with with the ideal of "Freedom of choice" and letting people"evaluate their risk" when dealing with a contagious disease is that these people are going to spread it to other people. If someone is allowed to catch the disease than that's their choice sure. But are they also going to be responsible and stay home after they catch it- not go to the grocery store and breath all of over people? The ones who don't give a shit about being careful are not going to be trusted to keep themselves away from other people.

You know these protests do not reflect how the majority of people think right? Two polls, one from Gallup the other from a very respected marketing company.

71% of Americans are not ready to just jump back in to normalcy but are in a wait and see mode to see what happens with this virus.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/308264/americans-remain-risk-averse-getting-back-normal.aspx

"69% saying they can accept extreme limitations for more than a month if it helps to suppress the infection rate. Two-thirds go so far as to say they don't care how long restrictions are in place if it prevents widespread illness and death. ".

https://www.herald-dispatch.com/wcn/wc_news/research-america-americans-are-optimistic-despite-uncertainty-amid-pandemic/article_679a2b77-78b1-544e-925f-30bb42194585.htmlThere are a lot of stupid sheeple in the USA. The pols took an oath to defend the USA Consititution. They are violating that oath in the sam manor that communist / facist dictators do in other countries. Power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely.

YippieKayay
04-20-20, 01:37
There is an article about it.

https://news.yahoo.com/sunlight-destroys-coronavirus-very-quickly-new-government-tests-find-but-experts-say-pandemic-could-still-last-through-summer-200745675.htmlAustralia would be nice and toasty right now wouldn't it? I just took a look at their data and it looks wierd:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/australia/

TurdyCurdyOne
04-20-20, 01:41
How can you believe the stuff you're reading. Common flu more dangerous? When did a flu double every few days (as little as 4 days) and kill up to 4% of the people it infected. And kill 40,000 people in about a month in one country. I'm calling bullshit on you.

Of course there have been many different coronaviruses. It's a family of viruses including the common cold. But this new one is a very bad one. And without the measures that have been taken the deaths would have been many many times greater.No offense but bull. Death rate is less than 1%. More contagious but most don't even know they have it. Only those who are sick from other diseases or very old are at serious risk. What's your source of 4%?

TurdyCurdyOne
04-20-20, 01:50
You're absolutely correct, the coronavirus has been around since the beginning of time, nothing new with here. The survival rate of people infected with Corona-19 is +99% . My point is, Why crash the Global economy? The common Flu is more dangerous. I'm calling bullshit on this one, there is something else going on that they are not telling us.Yes, I suspect this also. What are the ulterior motives of these power hungry pols who are violating their oaths to defend the USA Constitution. But this is world wide. Is this an attempt to cement globalism by the uber / hidden rich? An attempt to destroy America? What?

It does show how many gullible and stupid and borderline hysterics there are in the world. The anxiety level must be high and / or most people are cowards who cannot stand up against despots.

Here in the Phil. Many no it's all BULL_crap. They are only following the rules because they are frightened of the cops here. Truth is then cannot start arresting people for violating the quarantine because then the cheap UKs will have to house and feed them.

TurdyCurdyOne
04-20-20, 02:15
It's unbelievable what is happening. The Federal Reserve is projecting over 42 million unemployed by June 2020. The coming worldwide depression will kill millions, maybe even billions, over a stupid virus. I tell you what, the powers that be know what's coming, and we are being conditioned to stay at home and starve, have you seen what is going on in the agricultural world? Dumping milk, dumping produce, meat products are being fazed out, farmers are being told to stop farming. I hope you like Soylent Green.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LPRMdCSFI8E&t=4sHahaha, yeah that's next: soylent green. We can use all the imagined dead bodies from the corona virus for that. Hahaha.

Knowledge
04-20-20, 04:11
Several people who had the virus and recovered have tested positive again. So, I would not devote much mental energy to the antibody question at this point. As far as hospitals, as of today in Colombia there are 395 people hospitalized for coronavirus of which 100 are in intensive care. Just under 4,000 confirmed cases is today's national total. If I had my choice between a US or Colombian hospital I would go Colombian with no hesitation. I would feel that way even if I had not seen bodies piled up in hallways and storage rooms in US hospitals.


That's a good question which I have been contemplating now for a while.

My biggest concern about returning would be what type of healthcare I would get if I got infected and had to be hospitalized there. My plan is to wait until Colombia finally opens up again and I am assuming it's going to be a while, at least a few months. On that date who knows, maybe a readily available cure will be available, such as, Oh you have the clap, bend over, get a shot, and in few days your better. Highly unlikely though but who knows, I'm also going to get the anti-body test when Colombia formally opens back up, and if by some miracle I already had the virus and there's some evidence that I have immunity which isn't clear yet I will immediately return.

Again my biggest concern about returning would be having to be hospitalized. Yes there are some top notch Hospitals in Medellin, but they are just not going to have as much access to everything including treatments, etc. Like in the USA. I know others may differ on this, but you need to ask yourself, if your going to land up in a Hospital, and not by choice, where would you rather be.

On a optimistic note, as bad as this Pandemic is, and the wrath it has caused, the entire planets medical scientists and researchers are trying to come up with treatments / cure and a vaccine for the Virus. So with so many people working on it, hopefully by no later than sometime next year there will be a vaccine and things can return closer to normal.

Knowledge
04-20-20, 04:13
Stay, 100%, and I did have a chance to take a flight to the US three days ago.


Would you choose to stay or leave if you had another chance?

AZN Monger
04-20-20, 04:15
It's not cherry picking when I'm comparing it to your Nordic neighbors. You seem to be pretty high on Sweden and now you don't want to compare similar geography?

And trust me, it's not me stalking. You reached out on private message first if you've conveniently forgot, lol. Then I looked at your post history and it's just a bunch of "yay Sweden and coronavirus is not a big deal rah rah rah". I'm glad the moderator here is deleting some of these nonsensical posts.


Oh, so you are cherry-picking. Why are you stalking me and so obsessed by giving a inaccurate picture of things?

Belgium 490 deaths per million.

Netherlands 215.

Switzerland 156.

Sweden...

Junior11
04-20-20, 04:47
It seems to me from what I read that the European countries are planing very gradual reopening. So gradual that we might not see international flights to / from there for 2 or more months. That is quite long. And even though I am having a good time in Colombia, I could use a brake during summer. What you guys think? Are we really months away from getting on a plane to Spain or Miami?

Knowledge
04-20-20, 05:07
Watch the Spirit and embassy web suites. There was a flight to Miami on Spirit just three days ago.


It seems to me from what I read that the European countries are planing very gradual reopening. So gradual that we might not see international flights to / from there for 2 or more months. That is quite long. And even though I am having a good time in Colombia, I could use a brake during summer. What you guys think? Are we really months away from getting on a plane to Spain or Miami?

Elvis 2008
04-20-20, 05:47
Is that number USA Only or worldwide?That was USA Only in 2017. Interestingly, there were 10,000 deaths that year in Texas. Corona virus has only killed 477 so far in Texas so "just the flu" which was H1 N1 that year was 20 X worse so far in Texas.

CzarNicholas
04-20-20, 06:11
On a optimistic note, as bad as this Pandemic is, and the wrath it has caused, the entire planets medical scientists and researchers are trying to come up with treatments / cure and a vaccine for the Virus. So with so many people working on it, hopefully by no later than sometime next year there will be a vaccine and things can return closer to normal.

HIV started over 40 yrs ago, trillions (usd) have been spent chasing a vaccine, it is also a virus.

JjBee62
04-20-20, 13:44
Yes, I suspect this also. What are the ulterior motives of these power hungry pols who are violating their oaths to defend the USA Constitution. But this is world wide. Is this an attempt to cement globalism by the uber / hidden rich? An attempt to destroy America? What?

It does show how many gullible and stupid and borderline hysterics there are in the world. The anxiety level must be high and / or most people are cowards who cannot stand up against despots.

Here in the Phil. Many no it's all BULL_crap. They are only following the rules because they are frightened of the cops here. Truth is then cannot start arresting people for violating the quarantine because then the cheap UKs will have to house and feed them.I can't speak for Philadelphia. People elsewhere, I have a bit of insight on. I'll use 2 personal examples My sister and my brother.

My sister and her husband are ardent Obama hating, Trump loving right wing, gun toting conservatives. They both work full-time, blue collar jobs and have a combined middle class income, yet they struggle to get ahead. Recently, my brother-in-law was laid off due to the shutdown. He has since returned to work. If anyone should be anxious to get the country opened back up it's them. They're just the opposite. My sister, on her own, started making masks for friends and co-workers. Her husband spent the layoff doing home projects. Both told me they hope people just stay home until the numbers drop.

My brother is the opposite. Although he's not nearly as far left as my sister is right, he's solid Democrat. He has spent the last 17 years building a successful small business and has done well. He's got 2 big pole barns full of expensive toys that would make most guys drool. Him and his wife live quite well and the business keeps them comfortably high in the middle-class group. His business is hurting. While he's still open, considered essential, income is way down and if this shutdown goes on too long, he might be forced to close his doors. While he's eager for things to get back up and running, he also feels we need to sit it out for a little while longer.

I'll add in a friend who is a nurse. At the beginning, she was laughing at how the media was blowing everything out of proportion and how people were overreacting. Then she started getting patients with COVID-19. She saw the disease in action and did a 180° flip. When she gets home from work, she strips in the garage, sanitizes her shoes, bags her dirty clothes and immediately washes everything. She's frequently ranting that people need to take this more serious. She's desperate for a vacation, but won't even consider it right now.

I'm active on the local Fox affiliates website. I read their stories and get involved with the comments. This in a solidly red state. My buddy, a Democrat, Evangelical Christian jokes that if Jesus Christ ran as a Democrat against Satan running as Republican here, he'd get his ass stomped.

I've been watching the Fox viewer comments. Except for the obvious trolls, the opinions have shifted. They went from cries of "hoax" and "fake news" to "why can't people stay at home?" Granted, there are some, who probably get their news from the same source you do, who are whining about the Constitution, but they're not a significant minority.

I don't see this widespread panic about the extended shutdown. I don't see fear of the police keeping anyone at home. If anything I'm seeing increased support for the police.

ChuchoLoco
04-20-20, 16:25
That was USA Only in 2017. Interestingly, there were 10,000 deaths that year in Texas. Corona virus has only killed 477 so far in Texas so "just the flu" which was H1 N1 that year was 20 X worse so far in Texas.I remember H1 N1 somewhat but don't recall it being so bad. My memory (is that it was another false flu alarm starting with Ford and the Swine Flu but that's my memory only. If your numbers are correct, that's an amazing amount of flu victims and why was it never mentioned in all the reporting either by the media or the WH Task Force? Something is not right somewhere and I don't know where.

Ever since the Warren Report when I was a teen, I haven't believed much of anything by governments or by conspiracy career money makers. But for some reason, the fact that this virus and it's effects reported worldwide makes me think something is real here. I mean look at all the border and inter national travel closings and quoronteens. Scenes from hospitals worldwide too. Has the whole world been duped?

I guess only time will tell. I just hope me, my family and everyone's are here to see what it really is or was. I guess for now, I'm thinking I'd rather be a live chicken than a dead duck.

Good luck, stay safe.

Surfer500
04-20-20, 16:31
It seems to me from what I read that the European countries are planing very gradual reopening. So gradual that we might not see international flights to / from there for 2 or more months. That is quite long. And even though I am having a good time in Colombia, I could use a brake during summer. What you guys think? Are we really months away from getting on a plane to Spain or Miami?I don't think there are going to be very many flights going anywhere soon, and when they start back up it's going to be very gradual. Probably the first flights to open up out of Medellin will probably be on American, Spirit, and JetBlue back to the USA and the reason I say this is because the USA has basically bailed or will be bailing them out. Other carriers like COPA, Latam, and Avianca, not sure about them as Latam and Avianca were already on shaky financial ground and for COPA to resume flying back into Colombia then their hub in Panama City would have to be open. Don't know what else to say except that you, and me, and every one else on this board would like to know the answer to your question that nobody knows.

Fun Luvr
04-20-20, 17:34
The article linked below is about the H1N1 pandemic. It was written in the midst of H1N1 (Dec 2009). Much of the information can be applied to and used to compare to the Covid-19. One thing that stood out to me "The past few weeks have seen a variety of media reports, scientific publications, and blog posts that support, or at least imply, the conclusion that the current influenza pandemic is likely the "mildest on record" and seems to be waning." At the time the article was written, approximately one half of the total H1N1 deaths in the US had occurred.

https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2009/12/making-sense-h1n1-pandemic-whats-going

JjBee62
04-20-20, 18:32
The article linked below is about the H1N1 pandemic. It was written in the midst of H1N1 (Dec 2009). Much of the information can be applied to and used to compare to the Covid-19. One thing that stood out to me "The past few weeks have seen a variety of media reports, scientific publications, and blog posts that support, or at least imply, the conclusion that the current influenza pandemic is likely the "mildest on record" and seems to be waning." At the time the article was written, approximately one half of the total H1N1 deaths in the US had occurred.

https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2009/12/making-sense-h1n1-pandemic-whats-goingThe 2009 H1 N1 outbreak worries were based upon early worldwide reports. Worldwide, especially early on, the death rate was high. By the time it hit the US, it was dropping off. The US also, at first hint of a problem pushed hard for people to get flu shots. If I remember correctly, there were shortages of the flu shots that year.

However, it doesn't compare. The US already has over 41,000 confirmed deaths. Only 12,000 (or 9,000 depending on which CDC numbers you use) from H1 N1. Nothing was shutdown in 2009. Practically everything is shutdown today. No social distancing in 2009. Plenty of it now.

I understand you think the world shouldn't have shut everything down, but the world shut everything down. You can argue all you want and it's not going to change anything. What's done is done.

Everyone wants the same thing you want. It will happen. I think it will begin to happen soon. You won't be hopping on a plane May 1, and then hopping on a chica, but you will begin to see a path towards the goal.

I want this over at least as much as you. I've got some unbelievable girls waiting to meet me. It'll happen. Next April we'll know whether or not you were right. For now it's an argument nobody can win.

Nounce
04-20-20, 21:45
That's a good question which I have been contemplating now for a while.I think I am more concerned about I will be alone, and my family will worry about me if I got sick.

BodyAnybody
04-20-20, 21:58
I can't speak for Philadelphia. People elsewhere, I have a bit of insight on. I'll use 2 personal examples My sister and my brother.

My sister and her husband are ardent Obama hating, Trump loving right wing, gun toting conservatives. They both work full-time, blue collar jobs and have a combined middle class income, yet they struggle to get ahead. Recently, my brother-in-law was laid off due to the shutdown. He has since returned to work. If anyone should be anxious to get the country opened back up it's them. They're just the opposite. My sister, on her own, started making masks for friends and co-workers. Her husband spent the layoff doing home projects. Both told me they hope people just stay home until the numbers drop.

My brother is the opposite. Although he's not nearly as far left as my sister is right, he's solid Democrat. He has spent the last 17 years building a successful small business and has done well. He's got 2 big pole barns full of expensive toys that would make most guys drool. Him and his wife live quite well and the business keeps them comfortably high in the middle-class group. His business is hurting. While he's still open, considered essential, income is way down and if this shutdown goes on too long, he might be forced to close his doors. While he's eager for things to get back up and running, he also feels we need to sit it out for a little while longer..TL; DR: People I know support the shutdown, so everybody must support it. Oh, and if you care about constitutional rights, you must be a whiner.

Elvis 2008
04-21-20, 00:27
I remember H1 N1 somewhat but don't recall it being so bad. My memory (is that it was another false flu alarm starting with Ford and the Swine Flu but that's my memory only. If your numbers are correct, that's an amazing amount of flu victims and why was it never mentioned in all the reporting either by the media or the WH Task Force? Something is not right somewhere and I don't know where.

Ever since the Warren Report when I was a teen, I haven't believed much of anything by governments or by conspiracy career money makers. But for some reason, the fact that this virus and it's effects reported worldwide makes me think something is real here. I mean look at all the border and inter national travel closings and quoronteens. Scenes from hospitals worldwide too. Has the whole world been duped?

I guess only time will tell. I just hope me, my family and everyone's are here to see what it really is or was. I guess for now, I'm thinking I'd rather be a live chicken than a dead duck.

Good luck, stay safe.It was 10,000 in Texas and 143,000 nationwide in the 2017-2018 flu season. See the link: https://www.expressnews.com/news/local/article/Flu-killed-nearly-10-000-Texans-in-2017-2018-13028706.php.

(In Texas) The 9,470 deaths represent a spike of nearly 27 percent from the 7,459 deaths in the 2016-2017 season, and an increase of nearly 82 percent over the 5,215 deaths in 2015-2016, the only previous years when overall deaths were tracked.

The latest USA Centers for Disease Control and Prevention report shows nearly 143,000 people, including 172 children, died from the flu and pneumonia in 2017-2018 through mid-May.

YippieKayay
04-21-20, 03:09
This is what the head of the WHO said today:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yboX5UeMWdI

We're in for more.

Mojo Bandit
04-21-20, 07:25
Several people who had the virus and recovered have tested positive again. So, I would not devote much mental energy to the antibody question at this point. As far as hospitals, as of today in Colombia there are 395 people hospitalized for coronavirus of which 100 are in intensive care. Just under 4,000 confirmed cases is today's national total. If I had my choice between a US or Colombian hospital I would go Colombian with no hesitation. I would feel that way even if I had not seen bodies piled up in hallways and storage rooms in US hospitals.Several people is an accurate statement but this article says it is a very low percentage of people that are positive again on a retest. I am trying to read more about this. Where did you get your information?

https://www.winknews.com/2020/04/18/recovered-coronavirus-patients-are-testing-positive-again-can-you-get-reinfected/

Nounce
04-21-20, 09:18
Several people is an accurate statement but this article says it is a very low percentage of people that are positive again on a retest. I am trying to read more about this. Where did you get your information?

https://www.winknews.com/2020/04/18/recovered-coronavirus-patients-are-testing-positive-again-can-you-get-reinfected/Mojo, here is one.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/south-koreas-new-coronavirus-twist-recovered-patients-test-positive-again-11587145248

Nounce
04-21-20, 09:19
I would feel that way even if I had not seen bodies piled up in hallways and storage rooms in US hospitals.New York is not US.

CzarNicholas
04-21-20, 15:02
https://www.breitbart.com/entertainment/2020/04/20/hollywood-has-9-billion-reasons-to-not-blame-china-for-the-coronavirus-pandemic/#.

CzarNicholas
04-21-20, 15:34
https://www.yahoo.com/news/m/1474a160-857b-39ff-b051-2f8a2a5f5c87/dutch-court-approves.html

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/12/opinion/coronavirus-hospital-shortage.html

JjBee62
04-21-20, 17:28
TL; DR: People I know support the shutdown, so everybody must support it. Oh, and if you care about constitutional rights, you must be a whiner.Shall I go through the opinions expressed by everyone I know? I gave 3 examples, from 3 different views, plus a 4th trending consensus as representative of what I'm seeing. I could add in that of the people I work with who have expressed an opinion there is no rush to reopen everything. Most of those guys are poor and black.

I simply haven't seen or heard any indication of widespread anger or panic over the shutdown. The only people who I've heard it from are people who "care about Constitutional rights. " Selectively.

Care to debate me on Constitutional rights? Present your arguments.

Elvis 2008
04-21-20, 17:36
If you want to know why Michigan was the first place where rioting when on, you can read this: https://www.bridgemi.com/michigan-government/what-michigans-new-coronavirus-stay-home-executive-order-means.

"Larger stores with more than 50,000 square feet must limit the number of customers inside at one time, allowing no more than four customers per 1,000 square feet of retail floor space. That means a Meijer with 100,000 square feet of floor space can allow a maximum of 400 customers inside at any one time.

Whitmer's order also requires large retailers to close carpet or flooring, furniture, garden and plant nursery sections, either by blocking them, placing signs in aisles, posting prominent signs or removing goods from shelves. Bottle return sections at grocery stores must also remain closed.

Starting Monday, large retailers cannot advertise products that are not groceries, medical supplies or items necessary to maintain the safety, sanitation and basic operation of residences. ".

We are now seeing politicians in love with the daily coronavirus briefings, telling people what they can and cannot buy, where they can and cannot be. Politicians have become health experts on all matters now and no one is reigning them in. We have gone from flattening the curve to this nonsense of stopping the disease in its track, a foolhardy endeavor if there ever was one. A friend of mine is politically connected, and he sees people in politics that he cannot stand doing all they can to get face time on television. The red tape, and arbitrary social distancing, has caused his business to be 10 X less efficient.

I talked to an alternative medicine doctor. He told me that they are getting fantastic results with ozone, methylene blue, peroxide, and Vitamin see. These doctors have been treating the untreatable cold virus a long time with great results and hate vaccines. I am not anti-vaccine. I just wonder how many of them are necessary. As one doctor said, "I get the polio vaccine, but chicken pox? We don't have long term data on that. " When I asked a doctor who is also not totally anti-vaccine how often he saw autism after a vaccine he replied with disgust, "Thousands of times. ".

The calculation on vaccines is very difficult to do. If one person does not get a vaccine, because of herd immunity, nothing happens. If 10,0000 people in a community do not get say the measles vaccine, you can have and we are seeing deadly outbreaks of measles. The alternative medicine doctor told me 75% of pediatrician's revenues come from vaccines.

In 2017 and that horrible flu season, the flu vaccine was only 17% effective. One year a company put too much viron in the flu vaccine and millions got flu like symptoms from the flu vaccine. Vaccines are problematic especially for cold viruses like corona and the alternative medicine doctor says Bill Gates wants to vaccinate the whole world against Corona. This doctor is saying Fauci is another one of these vaccine nazis, and the notion that they are going to control others with vaccines and immunity certificates and profit from them is down right scary.

We were told that NYC needed tens of thousands of ventilators. To be sure, the Javits center and navy hospital ship were Americans at their best. Getting hospital beds in position for the coming crisis in record time was amazing. GM devoted a plant to making ventilators at cost. It certainly was something that made me proud to be an American. Fortunately, it was not necessary. The Javits center is near empty: https://www.businessinsider.com/why-nycs-largest-emergency-hospital-javits-center-pretty-much-empty-2020-4.

Yesterday's news that oil contracts went negative was unprecedented IMO a harbinger of horrible economic news to come. The notion that we are going to have a V shaped recovery is ridiculous. The oil industry for one is going to be devastated for years.

This virus is and was terrible, but the goal of flattening the curve and the enormous sacrifices made to achieve it have been met. I do not get why it is irresponsible for things to go back to normal as quickly as possible now. The idea that transmission of the virus can be slowed I get, the idea that it can be stopped for good is laughable given the economic trade off. There are bacteria and viruses around us all the time that are horrible and fatal. Why should the world now be stopped because of this one? I do not like seeing so many people trying now to cash in money wise and power wise and attention wise. Enough already.

John Clayton
04-21-20, 18:46
...When I asked a doctor who is also not totally anti-vaccine how often he saw autism after a vaccine he replied with disgust, "Thousands of times...The implication that there is a positive correlation between childhood vaccines and autism is false. The statistics on this are as clear as they can be. There is no linkage. (In fact, there is a very small negative correlation between vaccination and autism. Meaning vaccination correlates with protection against autism). The science behind this is clear. The idea behind this originated in a 1998 paper by Andrew Wakefield; however, no one could replicate his findings. Gigantic epidemiological studies were made to determine if there is causality. There is none. It was found that Andrew Wakefield faked his results, the paper was withdrawn, and he lost his medical license. If there is one thing we can say with complete assurance, it is that childhood vaccinations do not correlate with autism.

Further, the "controversy" about childhood vaccination has been promulgated by Russian troll farms. The purpose is to create dissent of science and government in the West. It is one of the many lies they create to destabilize us. When you print their disinformation, agitprop, you are inadvertently colloborating with Russian intelligence efforts.

Macgoo
04-21-20, 19:33
Mongers All -.

Know that there is an extraordinary uptick of Hacking taking place throughout South America. A special target (no surprise) is our pastime. Just to put you on notice, the ArgentinaPrivate portion of this site has been hacked recently. Go take a look. Hopefully, this site will be spared.

YippieKayay
04-21-20, 20:44
LOL.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uGzBrOCkffw

JjBee62
04-21-20, 21:07
If you want to know why Michigan was the first place where rioting when on, you can read this: https://www.bridgemi.com/michigan-government/what-michigans-new-coronavirus-stay-home-executive-order-means.

"Larger stores with more than 50,000 square feet must limit the number of customers inside at one time, allowing no more than four customers per 1,000 square feet of retail floor space. That means a Meijer with 100,000 square feet of floor space can allow a maximum of 400 customers inside at any one time.

Whitmer's order also requires large retailers to close carpet or flooring, furniture, garden and plant nursery sections, either by blocking them, placing signs in aisles, posting prominent signs or removing goods from shelves. Bottle return sections at grocery stores must also remain closed.

Starting Monday, large retailers cannot advertise products that are not groceries, medical supplies or items necessary to maintain the safety, sanitation and basic operation of residences. "..You were doing so good, but this is a huge step backwards.

Let's start with the restrictions on number of customers in Meijer. 4 customers per 1,000 ft². When you consider that a 100,000 ft² store only has about 35,000 ft² of open floor, 4 customers per 1,000 equates to about 6 ft of separation between everyone (stores have employees and product and storage areas). The only people who are upset over this apparently never learned to use a calculator.

The idea is, if something is starting to work, you stick with it, instead of declaring victory and stopping it. That's why the restrictions on essential items remain in place.

Calling what went on in Michigan rioting is like calling a backyard koi pond one of the great lakes. I drive through Lansing 4 times a week. I was driving through Lansing when the "riots" took place. It didn't look anything like the 1992 riots in LA. In fact it looked like a rather pathetic group of people who are easily duped. I'll be back through Lansing tonight and tomorrow afternoon. I'll look for the telltale plumes of smoke and all the flashing lights and sirens.

There are 2 purposes for vaccines. Any doctor who doesn't understand them both should have their license revoked.

1. Prevent the effects of the disease.

2. Prevent the spread of the disease.

Number 1 is for individuals. Number 2 is for everyone. Let's take a minor disease like chickenpox. Let's say there were 4 million cases per year in the US before the vaccine became available, because that's the estimate. That's 4 million walking, crawling incubators producing copies of the varicella virus. Viruses mutate. Each one of those little itchy incubators is trying its best to produce a different strain of the virus. How about a strain with a 30% mortality rate? When we vaccinate, we reduce the risk of a successful, deadlier version of the disease popping up.

It's strange how alternative medicine doctors never make any breakthroughs. I mean, you'd think, just once, one of them would have come up with a cure for something.

As for 75% of pediatrician's revenue coming from vaccines, I'm literally floored that you didn't laugh in his face and call him a fool.

Surely at some time in your life you've seen children. They're everywhere. They get cuts and broken bones and all sorts of nasty little illnesses. They run high fevers and puke and shit and seem like they're about to die. They develop allergies. And parents, especially new parents, rush them off to the pediatrician at the first sign of any illness. Yet you're willing to believe that the pediatricians make 75% of their income from administering vaccines?

That oil news must have hit you hard. You went full tinfoil hat on your alternative medicine anti vaccine rant.

Yes, it's irresponsible to immediately go back to business as usual. It's worse than irresponsible, it's insane. I understand your view. The markets are probably heading down. Possibly way down. You aren't comfortable with that. You'd rather see the oil surplus changed to a shortage. You'd rather see stocks comfortably trending up. That's not likely to happen for awhile.

However, there's good news. Remember 2008? That's the year when oil prices were through the roof. We were paying $4.50 a gallon. Then came the fall. Everything went to shit. Foreclosures, bankruptcies, reorganizations, bailouts. Almost like we're seeing now. By the middle of 2009 the downward spiral was petering out and in 2010 everything started turning around. It turned around so much that we had 10 years of growth. Heck, just 2 months ago President Trump was beaming about the economy, the stock market and unemployment.

We might fall further this time, but everything will bounce back. The further we fall, the bigger the upside on the recovery.

BodyAnybody
04-21-20, 21:18
LOL.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uGzBrOCkffwOK, so let's review what this study had to say.

1. It was a small study.

2. The study was not peer reviewed, which means no one analyzed the methodology, tested the controls or checked for effects from practiced like researcher degrees of freedom.

3. A death rate of 22% was reported in the patients given the drugs. A death rate of 11% was reported in the patients who did not take the drugs. This means that the patients in the study are more or less the worst off. That death rate is what? 5 to 10 times higher than what is widely reported for this virus?

4. Previously, successful use of this drug has been reported in patients in the early stages of the illness, not those who are already near death as those in this study appeared to have been.

5. There is no evidence of causation in these study results. In other words, people died after taking the drug, but there is no reason to believe that the drug contributed to their death. If there was, we would see toxicology reports showing how the drug harmed them.

5. Because of the size of the study, lack of peer review and proper controls, these results can be written off as statistical noise.

I don't care about Trump or this drug, but CNN peddles bullshit, just like fox and MSNBC, and people like you spread it like a toddler painting the walls with shit.

Fun Luvr
04-21-20, 22:35
However, it doesn't compare. The US already has over 41,000 confirmed deaths. Only 12,000 (or 9,000 depending on which CDC numbers you use) from H1 N1.Things do not have to be equal to be compared. In fact, you don't know the difference unless you compare them. I did not mention anything about death counts. I said the information in the article can be used to compare to the Covin-19. One of the bits of information is the age ranges most affected by the two are very different. Also, that some older people may have had residual acquired immunity to H1N1.

YippieKayay
04-21-20, 22:47
I don't care about Trump or this drug, but CNN peddles bullshit, just like fox and MSNBC, and people like you spread it like a toddler painting the walls with shit.All the points you listed Dr. Gupta talked about in the first few minutes. So how is that peddling bullshit?

JjBee62
04-21-20, 23:07
LOL.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uGzBrOCkffwThat's why you do comprehensive studies first, instead of just winging it.

BodyAnybody
04-21-20, 23:12
All the points you listed Dr. Gupta talked about in the first few minutes. So how is that peddling bullshit?Their bullshit waste mostly in what they left out. Gupta, as a doctor should have explained what the high mortality rare in that group of patients meant. The fact that this study was made up of people close to death, or with underlying conditions that increased their risk of death from the virus is extremely important. This has to be the case with death rates so high, or we would be seeing another black plague and saying good by to a quarter of the world's population.

They also never mentioned that correlation is not always equal to causation. Most people who watch CNN do not know any of this, and CNN is aware of that.

Finally, the title of your post was "Trump pills don't work and can be lethal". Either you are liar, or the video gave you the impression that your title is true. Which is it?

Fun Luvr
04-22-20, 00:46
OK, so let's review what this study had to say.

1. It was a small study.

2. The study was not peer reviewed, which means no one analyzed the methodology, tested the controls or checked for effects from practiced like researcher degrees of freedom.

3. A death rate of 22% was reported in the patients given the drugs. A death rate of 11% was reported in the patients who did not take the drugs. This means that the patients in the study are more or less the worst off. That death rate is what? 5 to 10 times higher than what is widely reported for this virus?

4. Previously, successful use of this drug has been reported in patients in the early stages of the illness, not those who are already near death as those in this study appeared to have been.

5. There is no evidence of causation in these study results. In other words, people died after taking the drug, but there is no reason to believe that the drug contributed to their death. If there was, we would see toxicology reports showing how the drug harmed them.

5. Because of the size of the study, lack of peer review and proper controls, these results can be written off as statistical noise.

I don't care about Trump or this drug, but CNN peddles bullshit, just like fox and MSNBC, and people like you spread it like a toddler painting the walls with shit.I want to add a few more points.

1. That was not a clinical test. It was a retrospective analysis test.

2. Patients were put in one of three groups (HC, HC + AZ, No HC). Criteria for determining the group was based on dispensed drug records at the VA hospitals. No consideration of the time frame of taking the drugs.

3. Compared to the No HC group, there was a higher risk of death from any cause in the HC group (from the report).

4. Those drugs have been used for more than 65 years. If they were killing people, I am sure there would be a bunch of lawyers suing the manufacturer and doctors who prescribed them.

Here's a link to a report of the study: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.16.20065920v1.full.pdf.

BodyAnybody
04-22-20, 01:58
Coronavirus antibody testing shows LA County outbreak is up to 55 times bigger than reported cases.

Key points.

The Covid-19 outbreak in LOS Angeles County could be up to 55 times bigger than the number of confirmed cases, according to new research from the University of Southern California and the LA Department of Public Health.

The data, if correct, would mean that the county's fatality rate is lower than originally thought.

With just 4% of the population infected with the disease, LA County is still very early in the epidemic, said USC professor Neeraj Sood, who led the study.

Link to the article:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/04/20/coronavirus-antibody-testing-shows-la-county-outbreak-is-up-to-55-times-bigger-than-reported-cases.html

Some of us predicted that this would be the case, nci expect it to bear out.

TurdyCurdyOne
04-22-20, 03:25
Mongers All -.

Know that there is an extraordinary uptick of Hacking taking place throughout South America. A special target (no surprise) is our pastime. Just to put you on notice, the ArgentinaPrivate portion of this site has been hacked recently. Go take a look. Hopefully, this site will be spared.I just got an XSS script attack (which I blocked) from this site.

Elvis 2008
04-22-20, 07:47
You were doing so good, but this is a huge step backwards.You got a F in your predictions. I could say white and you would say black. Here is a true story by the way. I walked into a grocery store, and I have been to several in several different cities all over the state I have lived in. I was told, "Do you have a mask?" by one of four people on mask patrol in the front of the grocery store. I said that I did not and asked if they had any for sale. They did not. I was told that I could use a T-shirt, and I went back to my hotel room and got one. On the plane, I had no mask on and no one said anything. In front of the store, there were four people standing around making sure that I had something covering my face. The T-shirt practically blinded me and I was a hazard to myself and others but I was not spreading "the virus".

On the way out, there were three people dressed in black like the old USSR on mask patrol. ON THE WAY OUT!! During my visit, a manager chastised me, "Cover your face, sir. ".

Now I have been all over the state. What is going on? I have seen the CDC say that masks do not work, and I listened to an infectious disease expert say the only masks that work were N95's. So what gives?

The LOCAL community city council went out on there own and passed this cover your face resolution because they have had a 100 cases and wait for it, 3 deaths!! They cited the CDC as the reason for the cover your face law. The same CDC chastising people for buying up masks claiming that they did not work.

And the Michigan governor said buying dry wall was okay but paint was not. I saw hair salons closed, sandwich shops closed, a gourmet ice cream shop closed, but DQ was open. Then there was a cash exchange place open, an oasis in a dry desert of closed stores. Say what? In the middle of all of the closed shops, a place changing dollars for pesos is open? Why?

Let's face it. We are in full retard mode now!!

Isolation is working? For what? The goal was to flatten the curve, and it has been flattened. That was a realistic goal. What is it now? Stopping the disease from spreading? That is totally unrealistic. Hell, why not isolate ourselves from all infections for the rest of time then?

Trump stopped all immigration. The virus is spreading domestically now. Why stop immigration now? It was for political not health purposes. I imagine children are saying they cannot eat their broccoli now because of the virus.

JJBee, we went trillions more in debt for this virus. We are in a worldwide depression. I heard a governor talk about a return to work when things are safe. When have things been totally safe? How about the devastation of the American oil industry? Hell, we got milk farmers pouring out their product due to a lack of demand? There are down sides to isolation, and no one is talking about them. It is all the same, "We will talk about that later."

Hell no, we need to be talking about that now. According to you, it is just my bet on oil that matters, never mind that I do not have one. If I were going to bet on oil in a positive way, it would not be now. You do not get the industry. It is too late. There is so much product it will take years for this amount to be worked off. The world has literally run out of places to store oil. And you are okay with that? The use of oil is a marker of the world's productivity and efficiency. So you are for that, huh, JJBee? Do you know what that means for the world? How stupid are you?

It is clear that at this point the economic damages are worse than the health ones. Economic damages lead to health damages. The curve is known. The disease for better or worse has been predictable, yet we do not hear that we need to lighten up now. It is about the second wave, reinfection, immunity certificates, vaccines. Where is the evidence this virus will not go away like all the corona viruses (I. E. Cold viruses) before it? There is none. It is just speculation.

Zeos1
04-22-20, 14:53
You got a F in your predictions. I could say white and you would say black. Here is a true story ...……etc……... Where is the evidence this virus will not go away like all the corona viruses (I. E. Cold viruses) before it? There is none. It is just speculation.On that last time I checked colds were still around. They have never gone away. Now that is scary because if Covid-19 doesn't create an immunity (like the cold coronavirus) we are all in bad trouble.

But to your point. How many deaths in the US is okay with you. For the sake of the economy?

YyzTravel
04-22-20, 15:29
It is clear that at this point the economic damages are worse than the health ones. Economic damages lead to health damages. The curve is known. The disease for better or worse has been predictable, yet we do not hear that we need to lighten up now. It is about the second wave, reinfection, immunity certificates, vaccines. Where is the evidence this virus will not go away like all the corona viruses (I. E. Cold viruses) before it? There is none. It is just speculation.Exactly this. The impact on the world economy through this "flatten the curve" scam is going to be 100 x as deadly as if we had just let the virus run it's course. . 01 x chance of death rate is more than acceptable.

CzarNicholas
04-22-20, 15:50
It is clear that at this point the economic damages are worse than the health ones. Economic damages lead to health damages. The curve is known. The disease for better or worse has been predictable, yet we do not hear that we need to lighten up now. It is about the second wave, reinfection, immunity certificates, vaccines. Where is the evidence this virus will not go away like all the corona viruses (I. E. Cold viruses) before it? There is none. It is just speculation.

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3081105/flattening-curve-wont-lead-coronavirus-turning-point-study-finds

YippieKayay
04-22-20, 21:49
It is clear that at this point the economic damages are worse than the health oneSome perspective. The current cases of COVID-19 deaths in the US stands at 47,000. That's in one month with a lock down in most parts of the country. I ask you, if there wasn't a lock down how many more would die? Two? Three? Four times the amount? Are you saying that a few million dead won't have an economic impact?

So no its not clear the economic damage is more than the health damage. Without a lock down things would be much worse. You really think people will go to movie theatres and restaurants when millions of black body bags are showing up on the news?

EDIT: The evidence that the virus will come back in a second wave is based on science. Until we have herd immunity the virus will keep spreading like the flu pandemic did between 1918-1920

Surfer500
04-22-20, 23:33
Seems like most of the posts of lately revolve around numbers and statistics and lot's of disagreements about what all of it means.

I saw two videos yesterday of how other Cities were managing things. In Wuhan in China apparently they have a scan code on your phone which has a green, yellow, and red color. Supposedly with the green code your cleared to go places where it's allowed, I wasn't clear on the yellow but I think it means you needed to be checked in some way before being allowed somewhere, and red meaning your were totally locked down. Maybe some other posters can explain it better.

Now let's go to Dubai in the UAE, they recently instigated a 24 hour curfew and you are only allowed out if you have obtained a permit. You apply on line and fill out a form with all kinds of questions like where your going like to a market or pharmacy, and so on, and how will you get there, by car or on foot. No exercising or walking the dog allowed. You enter the information with your ID and then are issued a permit with a time window when you can depart. The reporter said they got a response in five minutes so that part is good but lots of restrictions and a $ 1200 fine for violating the permit.

Now lets go to Southern California were I am, after seeing these two videos I become depressed thinking about how restricting this was being basically on the end of a leash, and what the future might be like. I live in a beach town and the entire beach, parking lot, pier and water are shutdown and the lifeguards are patrolling the sand to enforce it. I got in my car and drove down to the next beach town as I had heard it was open and wanted to see for myself. None of the public parking lots were open, but the beach was in full swing with surfers out in the water, along with beach chairs, umbrellas, and families playing in the sand like a completely normal summer day.

I am having a hard time reconciling all this, it's hard to fathom, scary, and defy's logic as to how things can be so different not only all over the World, but in the USA as well.

ShooBree
04-22-20, 23:59
On that last time I checked colds were still around. They have never gone away. Now that is scary because if Covid-19 doesn't create an immunity (like the cold coronavirus) we are all in bad trouble.

But to your point. How many deaths in the US is okay with you. For the sake of the economy?How many lives are you ready to ruin? How many do you want to see homeless, heavily indebted, forced into bankruptcy or unemployment?

I've yet to see anyone answer those questions.

It's nature and Darwinism in practice, weak people die, but that doesn't mean that we all should stop living. To me it's really simple, people will die and that's tragic, but we can't continue to ruin the world economy. The show must go on and those who are old, fat or suffer from poor health should just stay at home.

A bit funny, the first corona related death in California occurred the 6th of February, more than a month before any lockdown. The virus had plenty of time to infect people.

Elvis 2008
04-23-20, 02:36
But to your point. How many deaths in the US is okay with you. For the sake of the economy?Given that the data on Covid-19 is absolute shit, how can you make a statement like that?

Let us put things in perspective, if the economy remains shut down, the amount of debt will skyrocket, and the economy WILL get worse. You think printing money to pay things is going to last forever?

If we open things, it is unknown what happens because the data on Covid-19 is like I said pure shit.

You act is if the economy is opened up now, the death rate HAS to go up. How do you know that? Hell, it might even go down because people are more mobile. As I pointed out, the total DEATH rate as of March 2020 was LOWER than the last five years.

If you really are so worried about viruses and death, why not teach all elementary school on line? Elementary schools and daycare are breeding grounds for influenza, but that is not part of the long term picture? Why not? Influenza and the pneumonia associated with it THIS YEAR ALONE still has killed more people than Covid-19.

This is not just about money for lives. You have 10 million people lose their job and health insurance and their health goes down. That is a fact.

The goal with isolation was to flatten the curve. Mission accomplished. Now what? Destroy the economy? For what purpose?

If the so called experts can't even make up their mind what good fucking masks are, what do they know about anything? Nobody knows nothing, but if you keep people in isolation, you destroy the economy, and a bad economy leads to bad health care outcomes and death. That IS known.

When do we stop with isolation? Why not just stay in isolation forever then? Hell, Covid might be here forever.

Elvis 2008
04-23-20, 02:49
Some perspective. The current cases of COVID-19 deaths in the US stands at 47,000. That's in one month with a lock down in most parts of the country. I ask you, if there wasn't a lock down how many more would die? Two? Three? Four times the amount? Are you saying that a few million dead won't have an economic impact?The lockdown was NEVER, NEVER put in place to stop deaths. It was too slow the spread so the health care system was not overrun. What is going to stop the contagion is herd immunity.

I repeat, the data on Covid is absolute crap. Where do you get off saying isolation and the lockdown saved lives? That is such bullshit!!


EDIT: The evidence that the virus will come back in a second wave is based on science. Until we have herd immunity the virus will keep spreading like the flu pandemic did between 1918-1920

Bullshit! We just found out today that the dates on the first US flu death were wrong, and we have absolutely no fucking clue how many people are immune right now. You doom and gloomers are literally pulling stuff out of your ass.

You know what you call "science" without data? Religion, and that is what you are preaching, doom and gloom just like a preacher does. I don't have faith in scientists without data, and neither should you.

John Clayton
04-23-20, 04:04
...Where do you get off saying isolation and the lockdown saved lives?... There is an argument that flattening the infection curve actually increases number of deaths. Since this is a new disease, there was no immunity. Regardless of the shape of the infection curve, the area under it remains the same, which is the entire human population. Barring the invention of a miracle vaccine (unlikely for many reasons), we wouldn't achieve "herd immunity" until 80+% of humans developed antibodies. Therefore, from a cold blooded epidemiological POV, the best strategy would be to achieve the required percentage as quickly as possible. For this particular virus, which seems to mostly kill old, fat smokers, we should have infected the young and healthy as soon as possible, while isolating the old and immunocompromised. While this may have lead to the distressing sight of corpses in the street for a while, if probably would have resulted in lower infection rate overall.

Covid-19 probably is not the zombie apocalypse plague virus (although it still could be), but it is an RNA virus, which means that it is constantly mutating. So, the idea that we are going to beat this or "win" somehow is probably (without a miracle cure) wrong. The virus is similar in structure and transmission to cold viruses. The reason we don't have any vaccines against colds is that it is futile. RNA viruses mutate so quickly that by the time we developed a vaccine against a particular strain of cold, it would be gone and the vaccine would be useless (although it probably / maybe might offer some protection). I mean, there might be some miracle cure in the next coupla' / three years, but I kind of doubt it. Point is, this thing is going to be around for a while. We just have to learn to deal with it.

YippieKayay
04-23-20, 04:43
There is an argument that flattening the infection curve actually increases number of deaths. Since this is a new disease, there was no immunity.You're right about herd immunity but you're wrong about this. Flattening the curve is about lowering the number of people who end up in ICU so we don't end up with a situation like Italy. You can still achieve herd immunity over a number of waves. If you look at the flu pandemic of 1918-1920 herd immunity eventually won out after two years. The virus did mutate but eventually became much less lethal because its an evolutionary advantage not to kill your hosts for a strand of RNA.

A vaccine is possible. We have one for SARS-COV-1 (which caused the SARS pandemic).

John Clayton
04-23-20, 05:10
...its an evolutionary advantage not to kill your hosts for a strand of RNA...

Dude, you don't know what them viruses be thinkin'. It may be an evolutionary advantage not to kill the host too quickly. They don't care if you die -- they just want to make the most of theyselves before you do!

And. "...A vaccine is possible. We have one for SARS-COV-1... ".

Don't think so. Maybe something preclinical...

Mojo Bandit
04-23-20, 05:25
Where do you get off saying isolation and the lockdown saved lives? That is such bullshit!!
LOL where does YippieKayay get off saying that? You say that like he made it up. Like he is the only one in the world saying it. And then you attack him like he made it up. Every scientist in the world is saying this. And then you attack the scientist and accuse them of being political? Dude what planet do you live on? When in fact you need to get out of what every bubble of information you live in. I have been around researchers a lot in my adult life and when it comes to their particular science, "objective" is built into the scientific process and that is virtually their religion, if you argue with this it just proves to me that you have never been around these people and you are "guessing". Anyone who has ever studied anything related to science knows that science geeks are religiously true to the scientific method. Politics isn't going to fit in anywhere in the process.
One way you know its not political (besides the fact that these people work for the president) is that it is in every country besides some third-world countries and countries who got on the ball early with testing and contact tracing.

Since I know that most people know this it even makes me wonder if you are not just trolling with some of these comments - and to reply to YippieKayay as if he had just said something exrta ordinary when he just repeating what has been coming from Trumps own team at the White House - again it seems like trolling.

What YippieKayay said is exactly what everyone except whoever lives in your little bubble is saying. This is old but it is from the Surgeon General saying exactly what you were asking YippieKayay where he got off saying:

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/surgeon-general-says-coronavirus-death-toll-projections-are-sobering-n1173866

She asked Adams whether the country could see 96,000 people dying over the next several weeks.

"Those projections are definitely sobering, but they don't have to be our reality," Adams said in response.

"If we really do our part stay at home, social distance then we can flatten our curve even below those projections, but it really depends on all of us," he added.

Mojo Bandit
04-23-20, 05:34
Dude, you don't know what them viruses be thinkin'. It may be an evolutionary advantage not to kill the host too quickly. They don't care if you die -- they just want to make the most of theyselves before you do!

And. "...A vaccine is possible. We have one for SARS-COV-1... ".

Don't think so. Maybe something preclinical...There are at least 30 entities that are currently working on a vaccine for this Covid-19, Pharmaceutical companies and universities sometimes both working together.

https://www.foxnews.com/health/possible-coronavirus-vaccine-human-testing-trial

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01179-x

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/oxford-university-coronavirus-vaccine-to-begin-human-trials-on-thursday-as-uk-throws-everything-at-vital-breakthrough-2020-04-21

Fun Luvr
04-23-20, 06:05
There are quite a few small countries that have not gone into lockdown, but the population is so small that I don't think it's beneficial to look at them. I found three countries that have not had any required lockdowns, and each have about 10 million people - Belarus, Hungary, and Sweden.

Belarus: The number of cases and deaths have been at a plateau since the beginning. The reported number of deaths is 21 per one million population.

Hungary: The number of cases and deaths reached a peak and have been going down. The reported number of deaths is 23 per one million population.

Sweden: The number of cases seem to be at a plateau, but the number of deaths still has some high peaks. The reported number of deaths is 192 per one million population.

As a comparison, the number of deaths in the US is 144 per one million population.

Italy and Spain have been in a national lockdown since mid March. Their numbers of deaths per one million population are 415 and 464, respectively.

Personally, I think the lockdown and social distancing in the US have had an influence on the rise in numbers of cases and deaths, but they may have extended the time of the virus.

Nounce
04-23-20, 06:29
Sweden: The number of cases seem to be at a plateau, but the number of deaths still has some high peaks. The reported number of deaths is 192 per one million population.Sweden is not lockdown. I read that they think they have reached the peak or close to and will achieve herd immunity in a few weeks.

YippieKayay
04-23-20, 06:39
Dude, you don't know what them viruses be thinkin'. It may be an evolutionary advantage not to kill the host too quickly. They don't care if you die -- they just want to make the most of theyselves before you do!

And. "...A vaccine is possible. We have one for SARS-COV-1... ".

Don't think so. Maybe something preclinical...We have a vaccine for SARS (2003 pandemic). Dr. Fauci even mentions it in several interviews when asked about a vaccine. The problem is it was developed too late and SARS disappeared by then.

Mojo Bandit
04-23-20, 06:42
The lockdown was NEVER, NEVER put in place to stop deaths..The vast majority of people would disagree with you:

The Wall Street Journal.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/yes-flatten-the-curve-11584571566

UCLA.

https://www.uclahealth.org/workfiles/COVID-19/COVID-19_FlattenCurve-REV_3_24_20_FINAL.pdf

Everyone else who explicitly says that social distancing flattens the curve to save lives:

https://blog.providence.org/blog-2/covid-19-what-does-it-mean-to-flatten-the-curve

https://apnews.com/4984a419e7f0fbdadf93aa9cf84b64e6

https://www.econlib.org/cost-benefit-analysis-of-flattening-the-curve/

https://www.fox5atlanta.com/news/see-how-flattening-the-curve-in-georgia-could-save-thousands-of-lives

https://www.realclearpolicy.com/articles/2020/04/03/five_facts_on_flattening_the_curve_of_coronavirus_spread_488197.html

https://www.baltimoresun.com/opinion/op-ed/bs-ed-op-0413-coronavirus-flatten-curve-20200413-edqqowukp5gq7jbbkdpbky4eau-story.html

https://www.augustahealth.com/health-focused/why-we-social-distance-flattening-the-curve

https://www.geisinger.org/health-and-wellness/wellness-articles/2020/03/18/16/20/covid-19-what-does-flattening-the-curve-mean

https://www.wwltv.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/what-does-flatten-the-curve-mean-expert-explains-why-were-keeping-our-distance/289-f9286220-556e-4872-8d8a-0f685dfe74dc

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/19/coronavirus-what-does-flattening-the-curve-mean-and-why-it-matters.html

https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/03/17/what-is-flattening-the-curve-and-why-does-it-matte.aspx

https://www.wfaa.com/video/news/nation-world/what-does-flattening-the-curve-mean-to-combat-coronavirus/507-8f19851a-b105-420d-bb5c-841d0e04adce

YippieKayay
04-23-20, 06:49
Sweden is not lockdown. I read that they think they have reached the peak or close to and will achieve herd immunity in a few weeks.Sweden is doing quite badly and suffering for their decision. They are currently just under 2 k dead and at 192 dead per million. The US is at 144 dead per million. Italy and Spain are both over 400 dead per million. That gives you an idea of where Sweden is headed unless they achieve herd immunity.

Nounce
04-23-20, 07:45
Sweden is doing quite badly and suffering for their decision. They are currently just under 2 k dead and at 192 dead per million. The US is at 144 dead per million. Italy and Spain are both over 400 dead per million. That gives you an idea of where Sweden is headed unless they achieve herd immunity.I think it is too early to tell which approach is better. Like you said, there could be second wave. I have a difficult time to guess what will happen with the total lock down approach for a prolong period of time. This is a question no one can answer.

Currently Sweden's number is better than Spain and Italy but not as good as US. The debate in a way is can you put a value or price on human life, freedom, or economic suffering? Sweden's has a very mild version of social distancing that still maintain some freedom.

JjBee62
04-23-20, 14:10
Dude, you don't know what them viruses be thinkin'. It may be an evolutionary advantage not to kill the host too quickly. They don't care if you die -- they just want to make the most of theyselves before you do!

And. "...A vaccine is possible. We have one for SARS-COV-1... ".

Don't think so. Maybe something preclinical...The viruses sound a lot like humans. Don't care how many die as long as they can grab as much as they can.

Zeos1
04-23-20, 14:52
Sweden is doing quite badly and suffering for their decision. They are currently just under 2 k dead and at 192 dead per million. The US is at 144 dead per million. Italy and Spain are both over 400 dead per million. That gives you an idea of where Sweden is headed unless they achieve herd immunity.The idea of herd immunity is floating around out there. And with respect to this virus we don't even know if having had it gives any or much or what kind of immunity. So depending on the answer to that question there may or may not even be a possibility of herd immunity.

Assuming there is, and with the known transmission of this virus, it would take about 70% of the population to have had it to get to the "herd immunity" stage.

So where are we now. In various places. Well, first of all we don't really know for sure. Because we don't know how many have actually had the virus due to non symptomatic people (and transmission).

But there are some hints. First, that in many places the focus on people with symptoms was somewhat effective at slowing it down and "flattening the curve". China being the first example that used this a lot to start with. But it was combined with quarantine as well. So hard to interpret. Plus it was information coming out of China early on which is somewhat suspect. Some other places focused on that as well, and it had reasonably good results. Also the fact that contact tracing worked well in the initial stages of the pandemic in various places where they were able to follow up and trace people that had it.

So those things suggest that non symptomatic cases, or at least spread, was not a huge factor.

But testing did show that people without symptoms had the virus, and the extent they were spreading it was not known (viral load was lower so there was some question). Then come "studies" in various places seeming to show that there are significantly more people with antibodies (and we're not sure how effective these are, but they are there) to this virus than expected. How many more? It is not clear yet, but it is being investigated very vigorously as it is very important to know. But some initial findings seem to be 2, 3,4,5 times as many as reported cases.

So. Herd immunity. We have reported cases at less than 1% of the population in the US. Currently around 2/10 ths of a percent I think. So, if there actually are say 5 times that we do get to 1%. And we need 70% for herd immunity. So you see the problem. With the infections that are there now. Even if new ones stopped today, there will be around 50,000 deaths in the US. So multiply that number by around 70 to get the number of deaths to pay for herd immunity. Sorry to be a pessimist. But that's how I see the numbers and the biology of this virus. I hope I'm wrong on that too.

Ty Down
04-23-20, 14:55
The commercial airline industry is being decimated. Skip to 8:30 in video.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mJmqssxtxe0&t=1s


DOT.gov info


https://www.transportation.gov/sites/dot.gov/files/2020-04/CARES%20Final%20Order%20FINAL.PDF

Paulie97
04-23-20, 16:24
As I pointed out, the total DEATH rate as of March 2020 was LOWER than the last five years.Irrespective of your use of the cap key this source shows the death rate in the US has steadily increased over the last five years up to this year. Scroll down, check right column.

https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/USA/united-states/death-rate

Something tells me that this is likely a better source than your Bulgarian investor blog. That said, hollering, insulting, and calling the "data" and analysis of well credentialed and respected doctors and scientists "shit" doesn't make it "shit. ".

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proof_by_assertion

Theatrics do not equate with substance. In fact such establishes nothing other than that you know how to yell and wave your arms.

JjBee62
04-23-20, 17:20
Promise me you won't cry. I don't think I could take that. I did warn you, so put on your big girl panties and take it. Saturday I'll take the time to do what I said last week, go through all your posts and demonstrate beyond any doubt how full of shit you've been. The resulting cognitive dissonance should be exciting.


You got a F in your predictions. I could say white and you would say black.You keep coming back to this. Why? We've been over that. I accepted my mistakes and moved on from something I said was probably a mistake when I wrote it. Do you think it bothers me in any way? I freely admit my errors. What do you do? That's right. You move the goalposts, cherry pick, argue from ignorance and go completely loony in the process.

Why didn't you quote me on vaccinations after your insane alternative medicine, anti-vaccine babble? Especially since you started off in this thread talking about how a vaccine would make all the predictions false? Instead, all you're left with is "you were wrong once, nahnahnah. " I'm curious if you stick your tongue out at me when you're writing?


Here is a true story by the way. I walked into a grocery store, and I have been to several in several different cities all over the state I have lived in. I was told, "Do you have a mask?" by one of four people on mask patrol in the front of the grocery store. I said that I did not and asked if they had any for sale. They did not. I was told that I could use a T-shirt, and I went back to my hotel room and got one. On the plane, I had no mask on and no one said anything. In front of the store, there were four people standing around making sure that I had something covering my face. The T-shirt practically blinded me and I was a hazard to myself and others but I was not spreading "the virus"..The plane you were on, was it located in on near the grocery store? If not, how is it relevant?

If you hadn't been in such a panic over oil prices, maybe you could have paid attention. You could have been aware that people were wearing masks and figured out a solution. Instead, you blindly stumble along and blame everyone else because you couldn't figure out how to fabricate something every fucking 6 year old knows how to make. You've got the ability to fly pussy all over the world, but can't figure out how to cover your mouth?


Now I have been all over the state. What is going on? I have seen the CDC say that masks do not work, and I listened to an infectious disease expert say the only masks that work were N95's. So what gives?What gives is that you're completely out of touch with reality. People who work in close proximity of infected persons need full PPE, including N95 masks. It's to protect them from being infected.

Regular masks, surgical masks, painter's masks, homemade masks aren't sufficient for people getting face to face with infected patients. Their purpose is to reduce the amount of live virus potentially infected people distribute. The mask you wear, or would wear if you were smart enough to know how to use scissors, is to help protect others. The masks they ARE wearing, because they clearly aren't panicked over oil prices, are to help protect you.


The LOCAL community city council went out on there own and passed this cover your face resolution because they have had a 100 cases and wait for it, 3 deaths!! They cited the CDC as the reason for the cover your face law. The same CDC chastising people for buying up masks claiming that they did not work.If your local city council did something, maybe you should vote for someone else next time.

Tell me. Did the local city council mandate the use of N95 masks? The CDC isn't complaining about people buying masks or making masks. They're complaining about people, who have no need for them, hoarding N95 masks. Quit cherry picking.


And the Michigan governor said buying dry wall was okay but paint was not. I saw hair salons closed, sandwich shops closed, a gourmet ice cream shop closed, but DQ was open. Then there was a cash exchange place open, an oasis in a dry desert of closed stores. Say what? In the middle of all of the closed shops, a place changing dollars for pesos is open? Why?It's like dealing with a child.

Fixing a damaged wall or ceiling is essential. Painting an undamaged room isn't.

Ever worked in the restaurant business? Have you ever actually worked? Some restaurants are set up for takeout, some for dine-in and some for both. Converting a dine-in restaurant to a takeout restaurant is a really bad investment. All DQ needed to do was tape off the dining room. Of course they're still open. Ice cream shops closed? Go to the grocery. Buy ice cream. Eat ice cream. Problem solved. Hair salons closed? Do you even have hair? I mean after tearing your hair out over the oil prices? Go to Walmart, buy a trimmer, shave it off. Another problem solved.

A cash exchange place open? I think you mean a check cashing / payday loan place. Have I called you clueless yet? There are these people in the world called "poor people. " Sometimes poor people don't have enough money. Banks won't loan them money so they're stuck getting payday loans and paying insane interest whenever they are short on money. Some poor people don't even have a bank account, so they have to pay to get their stimulus checks cashed. It's like you live on another fucking planet.


Let's face it. We are in full retard mode now!!There was a brief glimmer of hope, but then I realized you'll never face it. You'll just change your story and pretend.


Isolation is working? For what? The goal was to flatten the curve, and it has been flattened. That was a realistic goal. What is it now? Stopping the disease from spreading? That is totally unrealistic. Hell, why not isolate ourselves from all infections for the rest of time then?Have you been drinking? You might want to cut back, because 2 more sips and you're going to be hugging everyone and telling them how much you love them.

Try this at home. Take a razor blade and slice into an artery. See how fast the blood comes out? Now apply direct pressure. Notice how the flow of blood decreases? Will everything be fine if you remove the direct pressure? Sorry. I should have explained how to make a cravat out of an old t-shirt first. You might bleed to death before you figure out how to do that.

That's flattening the curve. Once you've reduced the blood loss, you keep reducing the blood loss until there's a solution to the problem. If you stop doing what you're doing, whenever you have a little success, the problem grows exponentially.


Trump stopped all immigration. The virus is spreading domestically now. Why stop immigration now? It was for political not health purposes. I imagine children are saying they cannot eat their broccoli now because of the virus.Trump effectively stopped something that has already effectively stopped to pander to his base. Nothing more. Has no bearing on anything.


JJBee, we went trillions more in debt for this virus. We are in a worldwide depression. I heard a governor talk about a return to work when things are safe. When have things been totally safe? How about the devastation of the American oil industry? Hell, we got milk farmers pouring out their product due to a lack of demand? There are down sides to isolation, and no one is talking about them. It is all the same, "We will talk about that later."Ah. There's that oil panic creeping back in. For someone not worried about it at all, you sure do worry about it a lot.

Ever worked on a farm? Know any American farmers? I don't mean corporate farmers, pulling in millions in subsidies each year. I mean family farmers, working the same land their family has worked for 200 years? They aren't dumping milk. That's corporate dairies dumping milk. Local dairies are making cheese. Local farmers are preparing to get back in the fields. The ones I know aren't panicked. They're actually feeling good about oil prices. It brings their cost way down.

In what way has the American oil industry been devastated? You mean they have to cut back on pumping oil? That's not exactly devastation. I think you're talking about the devastation to the people who speculate on oil. Yep. I can see they might be devastated. Personally, I'm laughing my ass off.

When diesel was hitting $4. 50 per gallon and up in 2008 were you crying over the devastation to the American trucking industry? Over the past year, have you been in a rage over all the trucking companies that have gone under? You see, when people like you get the oil market into a feeding frenzy, you drive small trucking companies into bankruptcy. You put people out of work. You cause them to lose their health insurance and sometimes their lives. I've got no problem with that. But don't expect me to shed a year because you are worried about becoming one of the poor people.


Hell no, we need to be talking about that now. According to you, it is just my bet on oil that matters, never mind that I do not have one. If I were going to bet on oil in a positive way, it would not be now. You do not get the industry. It is too late. There is so much product it will take years for this amount to be worked off. The world has literally run out of places to store oil. And you are okay with that? The use of oil is a marker of the world's productivity and efficiency. So you are for that, huh, JJBee? Do you know what that means for the world? How stupid are you? Let's find out. You'll need to come to Indianapolis, because I don't have the free time to come to you. I'm more than willing to find out how stupid I am. We'll find a psychologist who performs aptitude testing. We'll pick a date and time and we'll both take the same battery of tests. I'll pay for both tests. When we get the scores, we will settle the bet. Loser pays for the tests plus the amount of the bet.

Now I don't have a lot of money to bet, but I have a lot of confidence in the results. How much confidence do you have? If you're nervous, I'll do a straight $500 bet. If you're confident, give me 10 to 1 odds and I'll go $1000. If you're certain you'll annihilate me, make it 100 to 1 on $5000. Worst case you lose $500 k. If you win, I'll even buy you a trophy and introduce you to probably the most beautiful woman you've ever seen, and she's looking for a sugar daddy. Right now. In Medellin. 18. No shit.

Do I know what it means to the world? Yes. It means very little to the world. You use markers of efficiency and productivity to decide on where and how much to invest. You know how most of the world measures things?

When I was a kid it was the "Cube steak law", now it's the "Pork Prosperity Index. " Back in my grandparents youth it was the "Liver Principle. ".

Until the early 20th century butchers gave away soup bones, liver, suet and other meat byproducts. The liver was for people to feed their dogs, suet for the birds and bones to make soup and broth. During the roaring 20's, while the economy was soaring, the regular people were having trouble feeding their families. So they took to eating the free liver. They found ways to get by on the cheaper stuff. When I was a kid, it was cube steak. Take the cheapest cuts of meat, run them through a tenderizer 3 times, roll in flour and fry it up, then cover it with gravy. The kids think they're getting steak and the parents stretch the dollars a bit further. These days, everyone switched to pork and chicken.

The economy you're so in a fret over has almost no effect on most of the world. Most of us notice no difference between a recession and a boom economy. Are we getting a free turkey from the company this Thanksgiving? Will we get a $200 Christmas bonus? Will my raise be 0. 5% or 1%? That's how the rest of the world lives. If their lives get worse, your life gets better. Downsize? Stock price goes up. Offshore? Profits go up.

You're worried about trillions in debt, but who pays for it? Where do the budget cuts go? And where do the tax cuts go?

As for the oil surplus, we had the same problem in 2009. Last I checked it didn't result in the end of civilization. Maybe I missed it.


It is clear that at this point the economic damages are worse than the health ones. Economic damages lead to health damages. The curve is known. The disease for better or worse has been predictable, yet we do not hear that we need to lighten up now. It is about the second wave, reinfection, immunity certificates, vaccines. Where is the evidence this virus will not go away like all the corona viruses (I. E. Cold viruses) before it? There is none. It is just speculation.If it's clear, demonstrate it. Put it down in black and white. Saying "it's clear" is bullshit. It's not even clear how many deaths we've had from the virus. Now we know there were deaths before the first official death. We don't know how many, but Indiana is speculating only 100 for the state. If so, that's a jump of 16%.

Indiana has also just announced they'll begin including nursing home deaths in the tally. How much will that bump the deaths? They still aren't including deaths in jails and prisons. Until it's clear how many have already died, it can't be clear the economic damage is worse.

The disease has been predictable? Really? So. It was predictable when you said it's not as bad as the flu that has killed 24,000? It was predictable when you said it wasn't as bad as a bad flu season? It was predictable when you said it's not as bad as the worst flu season in many years? Will it be predictable when you say it's not as bad as Hiroshima? If it's so fucking predictable, please explain why you keep changing your predictions?

Elvis 2008
04-23-20, 17:21
The vast majority of people would disagree with you:
Do you read your own links, Mojo? This is what was written:

"Health experts say it's crucial to "flatten the curve" of coronavirus transmissions to keep hospitals from being overwhelmed with critically ill patients. Flattening the curve might prolong the pandemic, scientists say, but fewer people would die because they would receive better medical treatment. ".

Seeing as how there is no official treatment for Covid, what this phrase refers to is that the health care system and its number of ventilators not be over run, which was the case in Italy. That did not happen. The curve was flattened. If you want to save social distancing saved lives because our health care system was not overrun, that is fine, but it is irrelevant to right now.

Seeing as how the "vast majority" of people disagree with me, tell me what the plan is of the "vast majority" of people because I do not think that they have one. There was a goal before, and that was to not overwhelm the health care system. Keeping people in isolation per one of YOUR links prolongs the pandemic. Is that what you want? Is that the goal now?

I was in Mexico when there was talk of closing the USA-Mexican border, so I came back early. It turns out there have been 50 deaths in all the counties in Texas and New Mexico that border Mexico. That is less than the flu and 50 deaths due to violence would be a good weekend in Juarez, Mexico.

The entire Mexican border thing was bullshit, and there was no reason for it. It was an example of completely bird brained isolation.

So I am in this border town on the USA Side where there is this stupid mask policy in place, but NOBODY HAS ANY MASKS FOR SALE! This is government at its worst.

The USA Government puts out the statement that you should not go to Mexico for tourism or recreation purposes, but nobody asks me why I am in Mexico when I go. Again, on the Mexico side, temperatures are taken but not the USA Side. I am completely floored by this.

Anyway, I am walking along now in Mexico. And you know what they are selling in Mexico in abundance on every street corner? You got it. Fucking masks by the ton! I buy two for $5 and they are more comfortable than any standard masks I have worn.

So once again, we are at another full retard moment.

You isolation types do not understand the amount of red tape you have to go through to be able to import items like masks from Mexico into the USA, and the companies who have done the legwork to import things are now going broke. Trade, oil production, milk production is not just a faucet that you can just turn off and on.

It was not just masks either. A grocery store in Mexico had put toilet paper, bleach, and baby wipes right to the front of the story. I looked for and could not find bleach the other day in the USA When I went shopping either.

So let me ask, Mojo, did the USA Isolating itself from Mexico save lives too? Was that something your famed "vast majority" of people were for? Because to me, it looks like a really stupid thing to have been done.

Elvis 2008
04-23-20, 17:50
The idea of herd immunity is floating around out there. And with respect to this virus we don't even know if having had it gives any or much or what kind of immunity. So depending on the answer to that question there may or may not even be a possibility of herd immunity.

So where are we now. In various places. Well, first of all we don't really know for sure. Because we don't know how many have actually had the virus due to non symptomatic people (and transmission).

But there are some hints.

So those things suggest that non symptomatic cases, or at least spread, was not a huge factor.

But testing did show that people without symptoms had the virus, and the extent they were spreading it was not known (viral load was lower so there was some question). Then come "studies" in various places seeming to show that there are significantly more people with antibodies (and we're not sure how effective these are, but they are there) to this virus than expected. How many more? It is not clear yet, but it is being investigated very vigorously as it is very important to know. But some initial findings seem to be 2, 3,4,5 times as many as reported cases.

So. Herd immunity. We have reported cases at less than 1% of the population in the US. Currently around 2/10 ths of a percent I think. So, if there actually are say 5 times that we do get to 1%. And we need 70% for herd immunity. So you see the problem. With the infections that are there now. Even if new ones stopped today, there will be around 50,000 deaths in the US. So multiply that number by around 70 to get the number of deaths to pay for herd immunity. Sorry to be a pessimist. But that's how I see the numbers and the biology of this virus. I hope I'm wrong on that too.So you agree the data sucks, and you are going by "hints". Then why do you ask me how many deaths I am willing to risk by ending isolation policies now?

What you isolation types do not get is that you want to destroy wealth and jobs based on shit data, hints, and "studies", and that destruction of wealth may result in greater deaths.

Was the USA Isolating itself from Mexico the right thing to do? Was Colombia shutting its borders the right thing to do? Should they open things up now?

If nobody knows nothing, and that is really where we are right now, then we should return things to normal and see what happens. People are not going to remove themselves from isolation right away anyway now.

ShooBree
04-23-20, 17:54
Sweden is doing quite badly and suffering for their decision. They are currently just under 2 k dead and at 192 dead per million. The US is at 144 dead per million. Italy and Spain are both over 400 dead per million. That gives you an idea of where Sweden is headed unless they achieve herd immunity.Sweden is doing great! Only 2000 dead, we are able to be out in the beautiful weather (20 degrees Celsius and nothing but clear skies), eat out at restaurants and go for a jog. I'm loving it! Who's suffering? I would bet that USA is suffering immensely, 22 million people lost their jobs, waiting in line to receive food like hobos. That's not life, that's a nightmare.

I'm really happy to be living in Sweden and not being imprisoned.

When will you come out? 2025?

Paulie97
04-23-20, 18:38
These may flail their arms the most, yell the louded in monger forums but thankfully the overwhelming majority of communical disease specialists are against them, as are the people.

As Harry Truman said, "the only thing new in the world is the history we don't already know. ".

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/22/opinions/denver-1918-lesson-avlon/index.html

Also here is an interesting article on the potential for a second wave.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/20/will-there-be-second-wave-of-coronavirus-

Stay safe gentlemen.

Surfer500
04-24-20, 21:00
There's an article in El Colombiano today explaining the rules for the estimated 500,000 people who get to return to work on Monday the 27th which includes every employee being registered thru their employer and the government with starting times / locations, all Civica cards used for the Metro / Buses must be registered in the data base established for the employees authorized to return to work, geo-tracking, and if two or more people get sick / virus the company gets shutdown or workplace gets shut down for two weeks. And the METRO will be operating at one third capacity to start with some type of re-organizing the lines (that will be interesting). I may have some of the details wrong as I understood about three quarters of the article.

Kind of sounds like Medellin is taking their cue from what the Asian Countries have been doing similarly is some ways.

DeepXliv
04-25-20, 23:08
Hi guys not sure if this is in the right spot but I'm looking at a new credit card and was wondering if Amex is accepted across the board in Colombia or if I'm better off just going with Visa?

YippieKayay
04-25-20, 23:33
Hi guys not sure if this is in the right spot but I'm looking at a new credit card and was wondering if Amex is accepted across the board in Colombia or if I'm better off just going with Visa?Bancolombia accepts Amex. Other banks won't. It's not as common. Visa is accepted universally.

But why is this in the COVID thread?

DeepXliv
04-25-20, 23:37
Bancolombia accepts Amex. Other banks won't. It's not as common. Visa is accepted universally.

But why is this in the COVID thread?Okay appreciate it, LOL didn't know where to put it.

Balboa
04-26-20, 03:36
I got a ticket to Brazil already. There are no travel restrictions there at all.
Oh how I wish that was true.

Elvis 2008
04-26-20, 04:19
Oh how I wish that was true.I wondered why American Airlines let me buy the ticket if it were true. A Brazilian chica told me there were no restrictions which was not right I see.

https://br.usembassy.gov/health-alert-march-28-2020/

On March 27, Brazil announced the closure of its borders, beginning on March 30,2020 for 30 days.

So American let me buy a ticket for mid May, and I guess is assuming the travel ban will not be extended. American allows you to change flight ticket dates now without penalty so even if the travel ban is extended, I will just change my date. The women there are as desperate for cash if not even more so than the ones in Colombia, and it is almost 6 reals to the dollar now with all the political bullshit going on there.

Balboa
04-26-20, 04:59
I wondered why American Airlines let me buy the ticket if it were true. A Brazilian chica told me there were no restrictions which was not right I see.

https://br.usembassy.gov/health-alert-march-28-2020/

On March 27, Brazil announced the closure of its borders, beginning on March 30,2020 for 30 days.

So American let me buy a ticket for mid May, and I guess is assuming the travel ban will not be extended. American allows you to change flight ticket dates now without penalty so even if the travel ban is extended, I will just change my date. The women there are as desperate for cash if not even more so than the ones in Colombia, and it is almost 6 reals to the dollar now with all the political bullshit going on there.Exactly!

AA is hoping they lift the restriction.

As you probably know, the president of Brazil is not too keen on the lockdown, so you never know.

However, it seems as things are getting worse there, not better.

Virus issues and politically.

We'll see soon.

Fun Luvr
04-26-20, 20:47
Some doctors in California are claiming that natural cause deaths are being reported as Covid-19 to skew the numbers. Somebody is benefiting from this and making serious cash. This virus is not as big a threat as it's made out to be. It's like the flu, no need to worry for a healthy person. Staying indoors is actually making our immune systems weaker.Here is what NYC did on April 14: New York City today has reported 3,778 additional deaths that have occurred since March 11 and have been classified as "probable," defined as follows: "decedent had no known positive laboratory test for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) but the death certificate lists as a cause of death "COVID-19" or an equivalent".

After we get through this crisis, I think we will see large decreases in reported deaths due to heart disease, cancer, strokes, and diabetes during this crisis. As you said, I think there are people benefiting from the number of Covid-19 deaths. During a news conference a few weeks ago, Dr. Fauci mentioned some dollar amounts that some entities (I think hospitals) were getting for each Covid-19 patient. I wasn't paying much attention, and I can't find any of that information.

Knowledge
04-27-20, 00:16
American let you buy a ticket because they need the money. You gave them an interest free loan that they may or may not need to fulfill with a flight. If they cancel the flight you reserved you can get a refund. Last month American and other airlines offered 20% bonuses to people who accepted vouchers instead of demanding the refunds that the US government required airlines to provide after there were many complaints.


I wondered why American Airlines let me buy the ticket if it were true. A Brazilian chica told me there were no restrictions which was not right I see.

https://br.usembassy.gov/health-alert-march-28-2020/

On March 27, Brazil announced the closure of its borders, beginning on March 30,2020 for 30 days.

So American let me buy a ticket for mid May, and I guess is assuming the travel ban will not be extended. American allows you to change flight ticket dates now without penalty so even if the travel ban is extended, I will just change my date. The women there are as desperate for cash if not even more so than the ones in Colombia, and it is almost 6 reals to the dollar now with all the political bullshit going on there.

Mojo Bandit
05-02-20, 01:01
I have a other things to do in life than tune in here every day and wade trough all the political crap that people want to spew on here. If you have any information about Travel / Colombia do to the Corona virus than post it but if you want to continue spewing your political bullshit do it somewhere else. I started this thread so that people who were interested in finding information related mongering in Medellin would not have to wad through all the bull shit that I knew would follow but now when there is an occasional update about what is actually being announced in Colombia regarding travel it is buried in the horseshit of the politics of arguing so I am deleting all the shit that is not related to Travel / Colombia and while I am sure that this will piss off everyone, I could give a shit less. Any single one of you is able to go start your own thread.

Mojo Bandit
05-02-20, 02:14
If people want to continue to argue and discuss other subjects someone else can start a thread/blog or you can meet up over in the After having been messaged by members of this board that I have been reading for years, members who have contributed a lot of great information over the years to the forum and after just getting tired of reading all theses posts that drown out the intended purpose of the thread I made these actions.

As anyone can see below I deleted posts back until there were actually posts related to travel on here. I am tired of reading all the back and forth and going in circles, I started to take the time to delete every single post that was not related to Travel but that would be too time consuming. But it is now easy to see that if someone does post about travel, that post would get drowned out and pushed back by all the other back and forth crap.

I am aware that it is possible that we are at a stalemate for a while related to travel into Colombia but I hope that when something does break good our way that members can see it posted here and not have to wade through unrealted information to get therel.

I take 75% of responsibility for letting this thread get off subject and not stepping in sooner to try to correct it. I should have maybe not put COVID in the name but the travel restrictions are related to COVID.

ShawMan74
05-02-20, 08:47
American let you buy a ticket because they need the money. You gave them an interest free loan that they may or may not need to fulfill with a flight. If they cancel the flight you reserved you can get a refund. Last month American and other airlines offered 20% bonuses to people who accepted vouchers instead of demanding the refunds that the US government required airlines to provide after there were many complaints.I haven't tried again yet but as of Sunday THIS week, united still won't allow tickets to be sold. They fail you out at the very end during payment. I was thinking for July but I think that would be too soon to really have any fun. People will relax by October, but united won't let me buy even that far out! . at least not yet.

Knowledge
05-05-20, 23:37
The price is not the best. A Miami / Medellin roundtrip on American is available for purchase Whether or not the governments will allow it by then is another matter. I share this so no one misinterprets United's policy as something official across the board:

[Non-English text deleted by Admin because the text is messed up.]

Miami, FL a Medellin, Colombia.

Lunes, 8 de junio de 2020.

7:45 PM.

10:05 PM.

3 h 20 m.

Sin escalas.

AA 923 738-Boeing 737.

Cabina Principal.

Retorno.

Medellin, Colombia a Miami, FL.

Viernes, 12 de junio de 2020.

12:30 PM.

5:05 PM.

3 h 35 m.

Sin escalas.

AA 924 738-Boeing 737.

Cabina Principal.


I haven't tried again yet but as of Sunday THIS week, united still won't allow tickets to be sold. They fail you out at the very end during payment. I was thinking for July but I think that would be too soon to really have any fun. People will relax by October, but united won't let me buy even that far out! . at least not yet.EDITOR'S NOTE: This report was edited to remove text not in English. While I encourage contributions from all volunteers, the Forum is an English-only website. Please do not post reports in any language other than English. If you wish to post text in any language other than English, then please include a full English translation.Thanks!

ChuchoLoco
05-06-20, 00:44
My friend in Medellin told me via whatsapp that this morning the quoranteen has been extended for 2 more weeks which would be the end of this month, May. They are playing things much safer there. I hope it works and works fast. Costa Rica is serious too and it is paying off as far as infections and deaths are concerned.

LoveItHere69
05-06-20, 02:35
Location: Bogotá, Cali, Cartagena, Medellin.

Event: New Humanitarian Flights from Medellin (May 13), Bogotá (May 16), Cartagena (May 17), and Cali (May 18) to Fort Lauderdale. Operated by Spirit Airlines.

The USA Embassy is pleased to announce Spirit Airlines will operate four additional humanitarian flights. One flight will depart on May 13 from José María seeórdova International Airport (MDE) in Medellin. A second flight will depart on May 16 from El Dorado International Airport (BOG) in Bogotá. A third flight will depart on May 17 from Rafael andúñez International Airport (CTG) in Cartagena. The fourth flight will depart on May 18 from Alfonso Bonilla Aragóand International Airport (CLO) in Cali. All flights arrive at Fort Lauderdale. Hollywood International Airport (FLL) in Fort Lauderdale, Florida.

These flights have been made available to allow USA Citizens and Legal Permanent Residents to return to the United States. Please contact Spirit Airlines directly for seat availability, reservations, and pricing information.

These flights can only be booked online. (Please note the Cartagenca flight will be available online shortly.).

If you are interested in returning to the United States, please take advantage of these flights. The USA Government cannot guarantee the ability to arrange flights indefinitely. USA Citizens should return immediately to the United States, unless you are prepared to remain abroad for an indefinite period.

If you purchase a ticket on one of these flights, and encounter difficulties traveling to the airport from your location, please contact us at ColombiaEvac@state.gov or (57) 1 275-2000. We have received reports that taxis and bus companies continue to operate, albeit at reduced and limited schedules. If you are located outside of either Bogotá or Cartagena, and believe you will have difficulty reaching the airport due to travel restrictions, please provide us with your travel information (name, passport number, what flight you have reservations on) and, if applicable, information about your driver (name, cedula, vehicle make / model and license plate number), as well as the route of ground transport. Starting point, destination, stops.

Knowledge
05-07-20, 03:40
There is another Spirit flight from Medellin to Fort Lauderdale May 23. You can book on the Spirit web site. The May 13 Medellin to Ft. Lauderdale flight is not available on the web site, probably because it is sold out.


Location: Bogot, Cali, Cartagena, Medellin.

Event: New Humanitarian Flights from Medellin (May 13), Bogot (May 16), Cartagena (May 17), and Cali (May 18) to Fort Lauderdale. Operated by Spirit Airlines.

The USA Embassy is pleased to announce Spirit Airlines will operate four additional humanitarian flights. One flight will depart on May 13 from Jos Mara seerdova International Airport (MDE) in Medellin. A second flight will depart on May 16 from El Dorado International Airport (BOG) in Bogot. A third flight will depart on May 17 from Rafael andez International Airport (CTG) in Cartagena. The fourth flight will depart on May 18 from Alfonso Bonilla Aragand International Airport (CLO) in Cali. All flights arrive at Fort Lauderdale. Hollywood International Airport (FLL) in Fort Lauderdale, Florida.

These flights have been made available to allow USA Citizens and Legal Permanent Residents to return to the United States. Please contact Spirit Airlines directly for seat availability, reservations, and pricing information.

These flights can only be booked online. (Please note the Cartagenca flight will be available online shortly.).

If you are interested in returning to the United States, please take advantage of these flights. The USA Government cannot guarantee the ability to arrange flights indefinitely. USA Citizens should return immediately to the United States, unless you are prepared to remain abroad for an indefinite period..

YippieKayay
05-11-20, 03:32
Avianca filed for bankruptcy.

JjBee62
05-11-20, 16:15
We've reached and exceeded the never going to happen 80 k deaths mark in the US. Now things are starting to open back up. I expect most things internal to the US will be back running by early to mid June. Maybe.

What's it mean for returning to Colombia? It all depends. I see 2 possible scenarios.

The doom and gloom scenario is that about the time everything is up and running in the US, we start to see a rapid increase in the number of cases. Widespread testing is still not available. Indiana announced today they're going to start trying something new, called "contact tracing. " I am not making this up. Three months in they're going to start doing what they needed to do 3 months ago and they act like it's something brand new they just dreamed up. Add in the real possibility of a mini epidemic going through the White House and who can guess what will happen?

If cases begin to surge, it gets ugly. Shutdowns have to be restored, stricter rules have to be followed and we have to begin again, adding a minimum of 4 more months of travel restrictions from the US. If that happens, we're probably not getting back to Colombia this year.

The everything is coming up roses scenario is that the virus is tired and has decided to go on vacation for several months. New cases in the US won't go up, flowers will bloom, birds will sing and we can get on with our lives.

There's even a possibility this could happen. Warmer weather and more sunlight may slow the spread of the disease more than the end of social distancing will speed it up. If the numbers continue to fall, combined with readily available testing for travelers, international travel might be restored before the end of August.

If I had the money and didn't need to work, I'd be looking for the first possible opportunity to get out of the US. Take a quarantine in whatever country you land in and wait for Colombia to announce limited foreign visitors, probably with a mandatory quarantine. If you picked the right country, you could make it in with the first wave. I don't believe the US will make it in the first round.

Knowledge
05-11-20, 17:36
Yes, that was last week. It was big news here for a couple of days. It last happened in 2003. They plan to maintain operations after the quarantine. They are scaling back by eliminating the least profitable segments, beginning with Peru. They axed the workforce and booked their severance packages. The chapter 11 strategy is to guarantee creditors so they can continue to get fuel and other supplies. Local business journalists have been talking about a new owner that would assume the debt. That normally leads to further layoffs and liquidation of assets like aircraft, gate assignments, and route concessions. American, Spirit, and Jet Blue have more than enough capacity to fill any Avianca gaps.


Avianca filed for bankruptcy.

Surfer500
05-13-20, 03:47
Haven't seen the PM from you requesting my PayPal or other means of paying your debt. Did you forget? Or are you still busy moving those goalposts?

Colombia will open back up when Colombia decides to open back up. Nothing you or I say will change that. Given what Colombia has done so far, passengers from the US seem unlikely to be accepted until the the US can show the spread is under control.I think when Colombia opens up they will let anyone in who wants to come into the Country if they 1) test negative immediately boarding the flight and 2) upon arrival are quarantined for two weeks regardless of which Country they are coming from. But under this requirement that's currently being utilized in a few other Countries, it will not promulgate tourism.

Mojo Bandit
05-13-20, 20:36
Avianca filed for bankruptcy.They sent out customer emails regarding the bankruptcy filing this is what they sent me:

Dear customer,

Because our relationship with you is important, I wanted to reach out directly to let you know about the actions Avianca is taking to make sure we have the financial strength we need to continue serving you well into the future.

Today, Avianca voluntarily filed for reorganization proceedings under Chapter 11 of the United States Bankruptcy Code. We did so to protect our business as we continue to navigate the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic as well as comprehensively address our debt and other commitments. We considered many other possibilities before determining that a reorganization made possible by the Chapter 11 process is the best path forward to protect the essential air travel services that we provide across Colombia and important locations throughout South America, Central America, North America and Europe.

Avianca has flown the skies for more than 100 years, and we are committed to our purpose to connect people, families and businesses. We look forward to returning to the skies and helping you and your organization safely travel across Latin America and the world.

Here is what you need to know:

Avianca will continue to operate through this process, and Avianca will return to the skies and continue to fly once COVID-65279;19 travel restrictions are gradually lifted.

Customers' safety and well-being remain a top priority for us today and moving forward. Customers can be confident that they can continue to depend on Avianca for safe, reliable air travel and high-quality service. To that end, Avianca has implemented a number of measures to ensure the safety and well-being of our employees and customers. Additional information on the steps Avianca has taken can be found here.

Customers can expect to continue to arrange travel and fly with Avianca in the same way they always have. We plan to honor all customer programs throughout this process.

• Customers will be able to use tickets, vouchers, travel coupons, gift cards and any additional travel services purchased before we initiated this process.

• Additional frequent flyer benefits remain active, including access to VIP Lounges, priority check-in, upgrades and other benefits.

• Given the impact COVID-65279;19 has had on travel plans, we will continue with our Flexibility Policy. Subject to government policies, we expect to continue to allow changes free of penalty and fare difference charges for previously booked tickets and / or newly purchased as long as the original and changed flights are until October 31, 2020. All customers who have booked travel or will purchase flights during this period can be confident they can rely on Avianca for their travels.

• The LifeMiles™ program is administered by a separate company and is NOT part of Avianca's Chapter 11 filing.

• Avianca customers will continue to accrue miles when they fly with Avianca, and can continue to redeem miles earned through LifeMiles™ to purchase tickets with Avianca during this process. Tickets purchased through redemption of LifeMiles™ miles will continue to be exempt from penalty fees until October 2020.

We are proud of our 100-year legacy, and look forward to continuing to serve you. Thank you for your continued loyalty.

Knowledge
05-13-20, 23:59
Good guess, tourism won't probably be the prime motivator for the first wave of international arrivals. Another possibility is there won't be international arrivals until a 14 day quarantine is no longer necessary (e. G. Vaccination certificate of the sort you have to present when you enroll a child in a new school). I saw a report that Dr. Fauci says several vaccines are nearly ready for preliminary trials. We should have a better idea of how it will look by month's end. Meanwhile on the ground in Medellin the traffic jams are back full scale and the streets look pretty much back to normal. Bars, restaurants, and monger venues are still closed but there are more apartment and casa owner run apartment, and indies advertising every day.


I think when Colombia opens up they will let anyone in who wants to come into the Country if they 1) test negative immediately boarding the flight and 2) upon arrival are quarantined for two weeks regardless of which Country they are coming from. But under this requirement that's currently being utilized in a few other Countries, it will not promulgate tourism.

Surfer500
05-14-20, 03:52
Good guess, tourism won't probably be the prime motivator for the first wave of international arrivals. Another possibility is there won't be international arrivals until a 14 day quarantine is no longer necessary (e. G. Vaccination certificate of the sort you have to present when you enroll a child in a new school). I saw a report that Dr. Fauci says several vaccines are nearly ready for preliminary trials. We should have a better idea of how it will look by month's end. Meanwhile on the ground in Medellin the traffic jams are back full scale and the streets look pretty much back to normal. Bars, restaurants, and monger venues are still closed but there are more apartment and casa owner run apartment, and indies advertising every day.I suspect the Country will open to International arrivals with a 14 day quarantine but for Colombian Citizens and Residents as you mentioned as the first wave initially, followed by a Corona Virus Shot like the Yellow Fever Shot Certification as you mentioned to open up for tourism.

In regards to the vaccine, if the FDA allows "challenge" trials, meaning as soon as the Phase II studies are done they vaccinate healthy people and then infect them with the virus to see if it's effective. I suspect this will happen thus speeding up the vaccine and opening up travel hopefully much faster.

The Tall Man
05-14-20, 14:03
Good guess, tourism won't probably be the prime motivator for the first wave of international arrivals. Another possibility is there won't be international arrivals until a 14 day quarantine is no longer necessary (e. G. Vaccination certificate of the sort you have to present when you enroll a child in a new school). I saw a report that Dr. Fauci says several vaccines are nearly ready for preliminary trials. We should have a better idea of how it will look by month's end. Meanwhile on the ground in Medellin the traffic jams are back full scale and the streets look pretty much back to normal. Bars, restaurants, and monger venues are still closed but there are more apartment and casa owner run apartment, and indies advertising every day.Good summarize of the renewed activity, agree same here that I am noticing in Medellin. More activity in the past week with indies, apartment chicas and the like not to be overshadowed with how my Tinder has lite up this past week.

It has been some 4 years since I last played around with Tinder and just doing it because of boredom in this 2 month now quarantine.

The Tall Man.

Mojo Bandit
05-16-20, 04:27
Sorry.

Sorry your post has to be deleted but in the past this thread gets hijacked by those who want to argue about social distancing versus economic upswing. That is not the purpose and the travel stuff gets buried, in this thread it is the focus of travel to Colombia and around Colombia.

Fun Luvr
05-16-20, 16:10
Sorry.

Sorry your post has to be deleted but in the past this thread gets hijacked by those who want to argue about social distancing versus economic upswing. That is not the purpose and the travel stuff gets buried, in this thread it is the focus of travel to Colombia and around Colombia.You can delete this post also, but here is what you posted when you started this thread (post #35387 in Medellin Reports):


Originally Posted by Uthred.

How about someone start a fresh new thread Called "Corona Virus 2020"? This way everyone that wants to talk about it can gather there. It will help future newbies trying to gather information related to chicas. Also with so much information coming in daily about this virus, I can see this Medellin Report section with about 50 pages of going back and forth about the virus. Let's move it elsewhere."Since what you said makes all kinds of sense about not needing to have people read this thread and just get info about coronavirus. I started a thread called "Colombia / Trravel Corona Virus Updates" As you can see I typed it out too fast and travel is spelled wrong and Coronavirus should be one word. But that's how may posts come out anyway. Please add any info that you have about the subject and help me redirect the conversation to that thread so we can keep this one uncluttered. ".

Combo
05-16-20, 17:24
It seems like we may need to start a thread called "What country will let us in and when. ".

I'm making travel plans for next Winter (I generally do my trips between November and April) and I'm trying to guesstimate what countries will have opened their borders by then. I'll probably plan trips to three different countries so at least one or two will actually happen.

I've heard Cuba is already opening to foreigners, though in a limited fashion. When will Colombia, Brasil, DR and others do it and what will be the rules?

Knowledge
05-16-20, 18:37
I see this question several times per day on various web sites. The best sources for this information are the government websites for tourism and immigration. In the case of Colombia they are: https://www.cancilleria.gov.co/en/procedures_services/visa/requirements & http://www.migracioncolombia.gov.co/buscar?q=visa+de+turismo & http://www.migracioncolombia.gov.co/.

Another reliable source for accurate information is the airline websites. There you will find regularly updated schedules with fare purchase and change rules. I mention the change rules because I often see uninformed "experts" urging people "make sure you buy travel insurance". Meanwhile, the airlines are all offering unlimited free changes and those that operate in the USA Are required to give full refunds in the event they cancel flights.

My opinion is yet another place to sift through what ifs and I wonder hows isn't going to fill a need because here and elsewhere on the internet there are already portions (sometime cherry picked portions) of what is available from official sources, along with all manner of imaginative theories and thirsty wishes. It's really not helpful. It's worse than no information. So back to the central question of your original post, the answer is "as yet unknown". As new information becomes available, see above for where to find it.


It seems like we may need to start a thread called "What country will let us in and when. ".

I'm making travel plans for next Winter (I generally do my trips between November and April) and I'm trying to guesstimate what countries will have opened their borders by then. I'll probably plan trips to three different countries so at least one or two will actually happen.

I've heard Cuba is already opening to foreigners, though in a limited fashion. When will Colombia, Brasil, DR and others do it and what will be the rules?

Knowledge
05-16-20, 18:56
It seems Spirit Airlines has settled into a 2 or more flights every two weeks schedule and one flight every 3 to 4 days leading up to July. Their last Medellin to Fort Lauderdale run was May 13. The next three are May 23, May 27, and May 30. I am referring to the US State Department sponsored repatriation flights. Beginning July 5, Spirit has daily roundtrips scheduled. As I wrote in several other posts, it is as yet unknown whether that schedule will happen. The Spirit web site is the place to keep track of developments.

Other airlines have been gradually adjusting schedules. Most of them show daily roundtrips beginning mid June or later. There are of course ongoing discussions among governments. The balancing act between the resumption of economic activity and infection control is evolving. I can tell you that here in Colombia there are a handful of exceptions but the quarantine is effectively over. The very ambitious mayor of Medellin issued an order last week that entry into the city requires you be registered on a city website and approved. The Amazonas department that borders Brazil is on 24 hour lockdown because of growing infections. Bogota, where most of the confirmed Colombia cases are, hardened restrictions in a couple of barrios where there have been infection rate spikes. Everywhere else only bars, restaurants, and casas / nightclubs are closed. I wrote in another post about a Centro casa that had a one day opening. I am hoping to see them back up and running during the next two weeks as they indicated they would be. Today the (in) famous Luna Lunera sent a whastapp message to all its contacts with promo for 80 k on site. They have been promoting their network of Laureles apartments and housecalls but the on site is new and yes, I will be checking it out today. More news to come.

Mojo Bandit
05-17-20, 04:01
A


You can delete this post also, but here is what you posted when you started this thread (post #35387 in Medellin Reports):

"Since what you said makes all kinds of sense about not needing to have people read this thread and just get info about coronavirus. I started a thread called "Colombia / Trravel Corona Virus Updates" As you can see I typed it out too fast and travel is spelled wrong and Coronavirus should be one word. But that's how may posts come out anyway. Please add any info that you have about the subject and help me redirect the conversation to that thread so we can keep this one uncluttered. "..

You make a good point. I was not clear in the beginning but unfortunately I did not intend it to be all the information related just to "corona virus" and the thread took on an animal life of its own and all the travel info about getting into Colombia got buried under an avalanche of unrelated stuff. What mongers want to know is when we can get back to Colombia.

JjBee62
05-17-20, 14:13
I suppose we'll know more in a few weeks when they issue the extension on no international flights. What I got out of this is that July is highly optimistic for returning to Colombia and they're probably going to be considering how the situation is in the country of origin before accepting inbound passengers.

https://colombia.as.com/colombia/2020/05/17/tikitakas/1589680062_118436.html

Surfer500
05-17-20, 15:40
It seems Spirit Airlines has settled into a 2 or more flights every two weeks schedule and one flight every 3 to 4 days leading up to July. Their last Medellin to Fort Lauderdale run was May 13. The next three are May 23, May 27, and May 30. I am referring to the US State Department sponsored repatriation flights. Beginning July 5, Spirit has daily roundtrips scheduled. As I wrote in several other posts, it is as yet unknown whether that schedule will happen. The Spirit web site is the place to keep track of developments.

Other airlines have been gradually adjusting schedules. Most of them show daily roundtrips beginning mid June or later. There are of course ongoing discussions among governments. The balancing act between the resumption of economic activity and infection control is evolving. I can tell you that here in Colombia there are a handful of exceptions but the quarantine is effectively over. The very ambitious mayor of Medellin issued an order last week that entry into the city requires you be registered on a city website and approved. The Amazonas department that borders Brazil is on 24 hour lockdown because of growing infections. Bogota, where most of the confirmed Colombia cases are, hardened restrictions in a couple of barrios where there have been infection rate spikes. Everywhere else only bars, restaurants, and casas / nightclubs are closed. I wrote in another post about a Centro casa that had a one day opening. I am hoping to see them back up and running during the next two weeks as they indicated they would be. Today the (in) famous Luna Lunera sent a whastapp message to all its contacts with promo for 80 k on site. They have been promoting their network of Laureles apartments and housecalls but the on site is new and yes, I will be checking it out today. More news to come.The latest news, President Duque said that he doesn't believe he'll allow International air travel "on the short term" amid failures to contain the virus according to his Saturday Facebook feed. And apparently Cali and Cartagena are getting hammered by the virus, and unfortunately when other Cities in Colombia are not doing well it's going to have an impact on travel in the rest of the Country. More announcements are due this week so it sounds like domestic air travel within the Country won't be resuming on June 1 as well.

Surfer500
05-18-20, 02:26
I suppose we'll know more in a few weeks when they issue the extension on no international flights. What I got out of this is that July is highly optimistic for returning to Colombia and they're probably going to be considering how the situation is in the country of origin before accepting inbound passengers.

https://colombia.as.com/colombia/2020/05/17/tikitakas/1589680062_118436.htmlI posted this earlier, I think December is a more realistic with International travel resuming. The "rub" is going to be if there is a mandatory two week quarantine, if so, the Country won't really be opening up with tourism a no go. If they would be willing to accept a negative test result upon arrival, that would open the Country up for sure. As far as the Country of origin issue, for sure the USA will be on top of the no go lists, albeit no different than China and Europe was on the USA list.

SJobs
05-18-20, 05:46
I posted this earlier, I think December is a more realistic with International travel resuming. The "rub" is going to be if there is a mandatory two week quarantine, if so, the Country won't really be opening up with tourism a no go. If they would be willing to accept a negative test result upon arrival, that would open the Country up for sure. As far as the Country of origin issue, for sure the USA will be on top of the no go lists, albeit no different than China and Europe was on the USA list.I understand that tourism will be banned for obvious reasons, all the bars and clubs will be closed until the end of the year, there is not point to let the tourist in. Is it possible that they will allow people go in for different reasons, such as business or visiting close relatives? Granted, everyone need to self quarantine and get tested before boarding the plane.

GeneHickman
05-18-20, 06:00
I posted this earlier, I think December is a more realistic with International travel resuming. The "rub" is going to be if there is a mandatory two week quarantine, if so, the Country won't really be opening up with tourism a no go. If they would be willing to accept a negative test result upon arrival, that would open the Country up for sure. As far as the Country of origin issue, for sure the USA will be on top of the no go lists, albeit no different than China and Europe was on the USA list.A vaccine is the wildcard. Its a longshot for the fall, but that is what I am praying for! That would really help get everything back as quickly as possible.

Knowledge
05-18-20, 13:46
Grupo Éxito is influential but it does not make policy. It has government contacts.


I posted this earlier, I think December is a more realistic with International travel resuming. The "rub" is going to be if there is a mandatory two week quarantine, if so, the Country won't really be opening up with tourism a no go. If they would be willing to accept a negative test result upon arrival, that would open the Country up for sure. As far as the Country of origin issue, for sure the USA will be on top of the no go lists, albeit no different than China and Europe was on the USA list.

Knowledge
05-18-20, 13:51
It doesn't look good until autumn earliest. Duque is under a lot of pressure to fulfill subsidy commitments. The only people I know who collect subsidies work for large companies. Informal workers and officially unemployed haven't been able to collect. I haven't seen lines at banks or Exito in weeks.


The latest news, President Duque said that he doesn't believe he'll allow International air travel "on the short term" amid failures to contain the virus according to his Saturday Facebook feed. And apparently Cali and Cartagena are getting hammered by the virus, and unfortunately when other Cities in Colombia are not doing well it's going to have an impact on travel in the rest of the Country. More announcements are due this week so it sounds like domestic air travel within the Country won't be resuming on June 1 as well.

Knowledge
05-18-20, 13:59
As of this morning a company called Moderna has the most positive vaccine trial results. Out of 100 or so vaccines the World Health Organization says are under development, Noderna's is the first to achieve across the board antibody generation at levels at or above those found in people who recovered from the virus. Moderna's shares are up nearly 40% in pre market trading.


A vaccine is the wildcard. Its a longshot for the fall, but that is what I am praying for! That would really help get everything back as quickly as possible.

Surfer500
05-18-20, 17:23
I understand that tourism will be banned for obvious reasons, all the bars and clubs will be closed until the end of the year, there is not point to let the tourist in. Is it possible that they will allow people go in for different reasons, such as business or visiting close relatives? Granted, everyone need to self quarantine and get tested before boarding the plane.I suspect the Government will initially allow Citizens and residents to return first. However if a two week quarantine requirement is in place, the Country's tourism will be dead. However I think a lot of the bars and clubs will again flourish. However places with lots of tourists around Parque Lleras won't do as well, but the reality is most of the patrons in the bars and clubs around there are Colombians.

Surfer500
05-19-20, 01:09
As of this morning a company called Moderna has the most positive vaccine trial results. Out of 100 or so vaccines the World Health Organization says are under development, Noderna's is the first to achieve across the board antibody generation at levels at or above those found in people who recovered from the virus. Moderna's shares are up nearly 40% in pre market trading.Yes good news, and interesting to note that the CEO of the company was the guy that Trump announced as his vaccine czar along with a Military general last week. So the CEO who own lots of shares is doing well, but regardless of this, hopefully there will be a vaccine and soon but nobody really knows.

And when there is a vaccine, the rub is going to be who get's vaccinated first, and that will be a shit show all of it's own, and if the USA gets an effective vaccine first, that will just add to the shit show so things can return to normal in the World.

YippieKayay
05-19-20, 02:48
As of this morning a company called Moderna has the most positive vaccine trial results. Out of 100 or so vaccines the World Health Organization says are under development, Noderna's is the first to achieve across the board antibody generation at levels at or above those found in people who recovered from the virus. Moderna's shares are up nearly 40% in pre market trading.Their first phase test does not indicate efficacy. All they did is give 8 people different doses and monitor them for a month and a half. We'll see but there is no evidence at all that the vaccine is effective at this stage only that it isn't killing people 90 days after they receive a dose. Phase 3 is scheduled for sometime in July which will show efficacy. After that they will do another phase involving many people (thousands upon thousands) before they can say its ready.

Assuming each stage is about a month and a half they will likely not be done until end of year. That is very fast development of a vaccine if in fact it works.

GeneHickman
05-19-20, 03:19
Yes good news, and interesting to note that the CEO of the company was the guy that Trump announced as his vaccine czar along with a Military general last week. So the CEO who own lots of shares is doing well, but regardless of this, hopefully there will be a vaccine and soon but nobody really knows.

And when there is a vaccine, the rub is going to be who get's vaccinated first, and that will be a shit show all of it's own, and if the USA gets an effective vaccine first, that will just add to the shit show so things can return to normal in the World.The vaccine trials appear to be going well and on track. One can maintain some cautious hope for later this year. It might even be the Chinese. They had a 3 mth head start remember.

I want to know though which country you think will vaccinate other nationalities before their citizens? Since I assume you can't name one, isn't that an unfair standard to apply to the US?

A better focus is on how to scale production so that it can be distributed far and wide.

However the reallty is that we will be short even with 100 M doses, so health workers, the elderly, essential workers, and finally the general public including celebrities should be getting it, and in that order. Yet we all know hollywood, sports stars, politicians etc, will get it first since that is how we have set up health care in our country. That is certainly how testing rolled out.

But my hope is we can get billions of doses produced within a year to put this damn thing behind humanity for good. Travel will return with vaccine certificates sooner than that, and since travellers have the means those that want to will get it early.

Surfer500
05-19-20, 03:54
T

I want to know though which country you think will vaccinate other nationalities before their citizens? Since I assume you can't name one, isn't that an unfair standard to apply to the US?

A better focus is on how to scale production so that it can be distributed far and wide..I don't understand what you mean by an unfair standard being applied to the USA. Of course I can't imagine another Country vaccinating other citizens before their own, and my reference was to the scramble and who goes first in the USA as eluded to in your post.

However the other issue is, what happens if the USA get's it first, and how the USA shares this with other Countries and the politics associated with it. Would you given a sworn enemy the vaccine, perhaps hold it as hostage for something, and the list goes on and on as to what could transpire and the inequities of it when the first few Countries have it.

Njoean197
05-20-20, 01:21
https://nationalpost.com/pmn/health-pmn/colombia-coronavirus-quarantine-extended-until-end-of-may

YippieKayay
05-20-20, 03:38
https://nationalpost.com/pmn/health-pmn/colombia-coronavirus-quarantine-extended-until-end-of-mayThis has more details. Airports will remain closed until end of June:

https://thecitypaperbogota.com/news/colombia-extends-quarantine-to-may-31-and-health-emergency-to-august-31/25095

Judd
05-21-20, 06:33
Colombia follows Argentina in banning all international flights through August 3.

https://news.yahoo.com/colombia-follows-argentina-banning-international-180501026.html

SJobs
05-21-20, 08:49
Colombia follows Argentina in banning all international flights through August 3.

https://news.yahoo.com/colombia-follows-argentina-banning-international-180501026.htmlIs this official? Will they reevaluate by the end of June? President duque hasn't officially confirmed this, right?

Husker Dude
05-21-20, 14:53
Colombia follows Argentina in banning all international flights through August 3.

https://news.yahoo.com/colombia-follows-argentina-banning-international-180501026.htmlLeft out a digit. It's Aug. 31.

Fun Luvr
05-22-20, 00:55
Is this official? Will they reevaluate by the end of June? President duque hasn't officially confirmed this, right?It is not official. The President is the only one who can set the date. The Transportation Minister said he does not expect the country will open up to international flights until August 31, which is the date the health emergency will end. He does not make the decision.

SJobs
05-22-20, 01:19
It is not official. The President is the only one who can set the date. The Transportation Minister said he does not expect the country will open up to international flights until August 31, which is the date the health emergency will end. He does not make the decision.Thanks. This give me a bit of hope. I really hope they open in July.

Balboa
05-22-20, 03:09
It is not official. The President is the only one who can set the date. The Transportation Minister said he does not expect the country will open up to international flights until August 31, which is the date the health emergency will end. He does not make the decision.You think maybe the Transportation Minister and the President talk to each other?

YippieKayay
05-23-20, 06:12
This goes into a lot more detail:

https://thebogotapost.com/aviancas-bankruptcy-protection-explained/46646/

Knowledge
05-23-20, 13:01
I had an Avianca ticket I forgot about until they sent me an email with an offer for a voucher because they had to cancel the flight due to travel restrictions. I never contacted the airline. I immediately disputed the credit card charge and got a full refund. It is probably not very risky to hold vouchers with Avianca but why do it?


This goes into a lot more detail:

https://thebogotapost.com/aviancas-bankruptcy-protection-explained/46646/

YippieKayay
05-23-20, 17:54
I had an Avianca ticket I forgot about until they sent me an email with an offer for a voucher because they had to cancel the flight due to travel restrictions. I never contacted the airline. I immediately disputed the credit card charge and got a full refund. It is probably not very risky to hold vouchers with Avianca but why do it?Be careful about doing charge backs with airlines. They might refuse you service with credit going forward. You were in your rights though. I would have probably taken the voucher or asked for a refund first though.

Knowledge
05-23-20, 23:27
I appreciate the advice. I am lifetime top tier with Star Alliance and oneworld / American (concierge key). In the highly unlikely event any airline would deny me credit card purchases I would use another. My status is one of the reasons I was given the charge back immediately with no questions asked. My advice in general is never pay cash for airline tickets unless you are in Al-Qaeda or a bad marriage.

Besides all that, as you stated, I was well within my rights and Avianca has no grounds for disputing the charge back. As established by the USA Congress in March. Congress acted after massive complaints from consumers that airlines were denying refund requests and issuing vouchers. Once Congress passed the law, the airlines began to offer voucher bonuses for customers who would accept vouchers instead of refunds. Those vouchers, with or without bonuses, are sucker bets in my opinion. Cash is king during this pandemic.


Be careful about doing charge backs with airlines. They might refuse you service with credit going forward. You were in your rights though. I would have probably taken the voucher or asked for a refund first though.

Paulie97
05-24-20, 19:06
I appreciate the advice. I am lifetime top tier with Star Alliance and oneworld / American (concierge key).... My status is one of the reasons I was given the charge back immediately with no questions asked.If this were true then why not just call the airline? At most you'the have to ask for a supervisor and remind them of how important you are. A refund would then promptly be processed with a flurry of apologies, no need to slink behind their back and file a CC dispute. Plus CC companies typically want the customer to make a good effort to resolve the problem with the vendor first.

P.S. "Concierge Key," really? That's a lot of spending, miles, and premium cabin upgrades for a guy hiding from the cops during a pandemic scooping 20 mil streetwalkers. LOL.

https://upgradedpoints.com/american-airlines-conciergekey

Surfer500
05-25-20, 01:16
P.S. "Concierge Key," really? That's a lot of spending, miles, and premium cabin upgrades for a guy hiding from the cops during a pandemic scooping 20 mil streetwalkers. LOL.

https://upgradedpoints.com/american-airlines-conciergekeyI'm going to have to take offense to this. Up until the Pandemic I was flying monthly to and from the USA to Colombia for four years straight exclusively in business class spending between $ 1,200 to $ 1,500 round trip from LA versus approximately $ 600 round trip in coach. I spent thousands, so much in fact that if I had just flown coach I could of saved a lot of money. But you know what, I only partake in the cheap streetwalkers as well.

Knowledge
05-25-20, 01:55
The talk of the town today is opening day of there malls tomorrow, and the tracking app requirement to enter. To use the app you have to enter all sorts of personal data and consent to be tracked. I've never been much of a mall rat. I expect there will be a holiday rush tomorrow (Ascension Day) because so many people need a change of scenery. The food court is going to stay closed. The other more important news is an uptick in new cases in Antioquia and Bogota. We can only hope that trend doesn't accelerate to the point it further delays reopening travel.

I went to an apartment in Laureles today. Around the neighborhood I was struck by how many people were not wearing masks. I keep one on whenever I am out of the house. More and more people are using them only for the metro and stores. All we can do is wait and see at this point.

Nounce
05-25-20, 08:39
I'm going to have to take offense to this. Up until the Pandemic I was flying monthly to and from the USA to Colombia for four years straight exclusively in business class spending between $ 1,200 to $ 1,500 round trip from LA versus approximately $ 600 round trip in coach. I spent thousands, so much in fact that if I had just flown coach I could of saved a lot of money. But you know what, I only partake in the cheap streetwalkers as well.I think these posts will be deleted, including this post. He has a valid point because the status is with the airline, not with the credit card company so it seems like a wrong reason to think he is getting immediate charge back due to the status. Maybe Knowledge has a more exclusive type of card that gave him the fast charge back.

SJobs
05-25-20, 12:03
I'm going to have to take offense to this. Up until the Pandemic I was flying monthly to and from the USA to Colombia for four years straight exclusively in business class spending between $ 1,200 to $ 1,500 round trip from LA versus approximately $ 600 round trip in coach. I spent thousands, so much in fact that if I had just flown coach I could of saved a lot of money. But you know what, I only partake in the cheap streetwalkers as well.Bro,

I'm seriously confused, On average, I spent about 10 k a month in Medellin on girls, drugs and Airbnb (mostly on girls), but I pay the 900 dollars round trip Copa economy ticket from sfo to Medellin. I can't afford the business class for an extra 1 to 2 k. I ain't that rich; that's trading 4 days of partying in Medellin for 10 hours of comfort in the sky. If you have enough coins to roll in the business lunge and you still dig el centro instead of la isla and Luton, then there must be something very significant that I missed, please enlighten me.

Knowledge
05-25-20, 15:03
I don't owe an explanation but I will provide it anyway because of the level of interest. Nounce you are correct, the status is with the airlines and with the credit card issuer. The charge back was granted because I never request them frivolously and they are very rarely disputed by merchants. I mentioned the airline status to explain why I doubt they would deny me booking with credit cards. The reason I did not pursue a refund with Avianca is because unlike other airlines I deal with Avianca did not offer one when it cancelled the flight. This in spite of the US Congress act requiring them to provide refunds. To be fair, airlines are not required to offer refunds, they are only required to provide them when requested. I have a policy of operaring in good faith in business. If I judge a business to not be operating in good faith I discontinue the relationship as efficiently as I can. Avianca sent this notification and voucher offer which makes no mention of the refund to which I was entitled by act of Congress. That is why I resolved the matter via my credit card. Life is too short to play games with desperate service providers, even though I understand why Avianca really needs to hold the cash they have. It is not my problem:

Hello,

As a measure to prevent the COVID-19 spread, different governments have restricted passenger mobility and the borders have closed. For this reason, your itinerary could be modified.

Check your booking status here. If your flight is canceled or your itinerary modified and you don't have a new date to reschedule, we invite you to exchange your ticket for an Avianca voucher of the same value as your initial purchase.

Order your Avianca voucher NOW!


I think these posts will be deleted, including this post. He has a valid point because the status is with the airline, not with the credit card company so it seems like a wrong reason to think he is getting immediate charge back due to the status. Maybe Knowledge has a more exclusive type of card that gave him the fast charge back.

Surfer500
05-25-20, 18:59
I think these posts will be deleted, including this post. He has a valid point because the status is with the airline, not with the credit card company so it seems like a wrong reason to think he is getting immediate charge back due to the status. Maybe Knowledge has a more exclusive type of card that gave him the fast charge back.My comments had nothing to do with airlines, but about the correlation between how one travels such as in luxury like I do, and lets just say the "class" of girls one goes with. In other words, for some, it doesn't make sense why a guy like me, who can afford to travel in first class, go with girls costing $ 10 USD.

Surfer500
05-25-20, 19:20
The talk of the town today is opening day of there malls tomorrow, and the tracking app requirement to enter. To use the app you have to enter all sorts of personal data and consent to be tracked. I've never been much of a mall rat. I expect there will be a holiday rush tomorrow (Ascension Day) because so many people need a change of scenery. The food court is going to stay closed. The other more important news is an uptick in new cases in Antioquia and Bogota. We can only hope that trend doesn't accelerate to the point it further delays reopening travel.

I went to an apartment in Laureles today. Around the neighborhood I was struck by how many people were not wearing masks. I keep one on whenever I am out of the house. More and more people are using them only for the metro and stores. All we can do is wait and see at this point.I read in an article about the malls re-opening, and it appears as though they are trying to copy what is being done in other Countries in the World to their credit, but is a big invasion of privacy to say the least. They of course want this data in the event someone infected is discovered in the mall and they need to trace / contact others who may have come in contact with that person.

It amazes me that Medellin to their credit is doing stuff not happening in the USA, but unfortunately the majority of the people who live in Medellin don't patronize the malls as things are to expensive for them there. It's like a Paradox, parts of the City will be monitored and controlled like in several other major Cities in other Countries, but it won't effect the majority of those who live in Medellin.

Here in the USA things have opened up for Memorial Day Weekend, and it's like opening the flood gates with few masks, etc. And I suspect we are going to have some horrible news here in a few weeks, I hope this doesn't occur here, or in Colombia, resulting in a further delay in opening Colombia back up.

Surfer500
05-25-20, 21:28
Bro,

I'm seriously confused, On average, I spent about 10 k a month in Medellin on girls, drugs and Airbnb (mostly on girls), but I pay the 900 dollars round trip Copa economy ticket from sfo to Medellin. I can't afford the business class for an extra 1 to 2 k. I ain't that rich; that's trading 4 days of partying in Medellin for 10 hours of comfort in the sky. If you have enough coins to roll in the business lunge and you still dig el centro instead of la isla and Luton, then there must be something very significant that I missed, please enlighten me.I probably won't be flying Business Class when I return as it probably won't be very comfortable anymore wearing a mask and being afraid to touch surfaces because of the virus so hopefully this meets the requirement by the moderator for this post so I can answer your question.

You haven't missed anything, I spend my money in Medellin on luxury digs, go to wine pairing establishments for dinner in Provenza, Manila, Lalinde, and Astorga. However when it comes to women, La Isla, Lutron, Gustos, Lleras, and the Fay Boo Chicas they do nothing for me. I can afford them, but it has nothing to do with money, I guess you might say I am a Paradox. I like hitting the streets, interacting, being with women albeit in the same profession as the other venues, but not accustomed to being with foreigners. There can be a unique rawness to it, and I have experienced things that a lot of guys will never experience. I look beyond how women are dressed, how nice their make-up is, how perfect their teeth are, and whether they speak some English at the venues I mentioned. Beauty is only skin deep, and everybody rolls different, so you haven't missed anything.

Knowledge
05-25-20, 23:26
I think the problem with the tracking idea is it can result in a cascade of false alerts. You could be waiting at a traffic light to cross the street and get tagged because someone in a car with the windows rolled up establishes a bluetooth connection. What if you then jumped on a bus or the metro. I think the data will not be that useful and it may cause a run on testing capacity. As described, the alerts will encourage people who receive them to get tested. I don't think it's especially dangerous because it is only a test aimed at controlling crowds in the shopping malls. I personally would not use the app or its associated web site because there is no confirmed information about how the personal data is to be protected and because I would not want an alert, valid or not, to become inconvenient at an airport or even a restaurant.


I read in an article about the malls re-opening, and it appears as though they are trying to copy what is being done in other Countries in the World to their credit, but is a big invasion of privacy to say the least. They of course want this data in the event someone infected is discovered in the mall and they need to trace / contact others who may have come in contact with that person.

It amazes me that Medellin to their credit is doing stuff not happening in the USA, but unfortunately the majority of the people who live in Medellin don't patronize the malls as things are to expensive for them there. It's like a Paradox, parts of the City will be monitored and controlled like in several other major Cities in other Countries, but it won't effect the majority of those who live in Medellin.

Here in the USA things have opened up for Memorial Day Weekend, and it's like opening the flood gates with few masks, etc. And I suspect we are going to have some horrible news here in a few weeks, I hope this doesn't occur here, or in Colombia, resulting in a further delay in opening Colombia back up.

Surfer500
05-26-20, 01:41
COPA just announced they would resume flying from Panama City beginning on June 26th at about 10% capacity, but there was not much detail about flights and the procedures involved with the resumption of flights that will be announced later.

Surfer500
05-26-20, 15:45
Well Latam is now following in Avianca's footsteps, who will be next?

Surfer500
05-26-20, 16:05
I think the problem with the tracking idea is it can result in a cascade of false alerts. You could be waiting at a traffic light to cross the street and get tagged because someone in a car with the windows rolled up establishes a bluetooth connection. What if you then jumped on a bus or the metro. I think the data will not be that useful and it may cause a run on testing capacity. As described, the alerts will encourage people who receive them to get tested. I don't think it's especially dangerous because it is only a test aimed at controlling crowds in the shopping malls. I personally would not use the app or its associated web site because there is no confirmed information about how the personal data is to be protected and because I would not want an alert, valid or not, to become inconvenient at an airport or even a restaurant.In China the Government has issued health codes used on Citizens smart phones which you need to access just about everything, if your green, your good. If yellow your stopped, if your red your quarantined.

God forbid if that is the direction things are headed to successfully control this virus which China has pretty much done.

SJobs
05-26-20, 20:34
COPA just announced they would resume flying from Panama City beginning on June 26th at about 10% capacity, but there was not much detail about flights and the procedures involved with the resumption of flights that will be announced later.This is an encouraging sign. There is a very small chance that Medellin will open up on July 1st. Please keep us posted as you find out more about it. I will do the same.

Knowledge
05-26-20, 22:14
I saw those reports. Even more jaw dropping for me was the report of a new generation of CCTV surveillance the Chinese government is using to peer into people's residences.


In China the Government has issued health codes used on Citizens smart phones which you need to access just about everything, if your green, your good. If yellow your stopped, if your red your quarantined.

God forbid if that is the direction things are headed to successfully control this virus which China has pretty much done.

Knowledge
05-26-20, 22:27
American's name was floated around finance circles today before the airline and several sector specialists pegged it as an untrue rumor. It's not logical because of the bailout guarantee. As I wrote at the time of the Avianca filing, I expect Viva and Easyfly to take at least that step and possibly go as far as cease dissolve themselves and liquidate their assets. We might see some of their Asian counterparts go that route as well. I am thinking of outfits like China's Hainan Air and China Eastern. Europe has had so many shakeouts the past five years I think the remaining carriers are safe with the upcoming summer surge. If we don't see treatment or vaccine advances before winter of course all bets are off.


Well Latam is now following in Avianca's footsteps, who will be next?

Paulie97
05-28-20, 05:58
It wasn't really complicated surfer boy, but let me emphasize again, any guy spending 50 k a year on tickets, plus multiple upgrades to business class can just call the airline with a cancellation request. Get it? No need for credit card chargebacks, where in such a circumstance they'd want you to negotiate with the vendor first anyway. At the end of the day you can talk about what a big shot you are, but no one cares. We hope for practical information and BS doesn't qualify.


I'm going to have to take offense to this. Up until the Pandemic I was flying monthly to and from the USA to Colombia for four years straight exclusively in business class spending between $ 1,200 to $ 1,500 round trip from LA versus approximately $ 600 round trip in coach. I spent thousands, so much in fact that if I had just flown coach I could of saved a lot of money. But you know what, I only partake in the cheap streetwalkers as well.

Surfer500
05-28-20, 17:36
It wasn't really complicated surfer boy, but let me emphasize again, any guy spending 50 k a year on tickets, plus multiple upgrades to business class can just call the airline with a cancellation request. Get it? No need for credit card chargebacks, where in such a circumstance they'd want you to negotiate with the vendor first anyway. At the end of the day you can talk about what a big shot you are, but no one cares. We hope for practical information and BS doesn't qualify.I suggest you read my post a little closer, you got your math off in that my reference to flying was based on 4 years, not one year. So how you came up with me spending 50 K a year on tickets is not correct. More like 12 K a year on tickets would be more accurate, and I guess that will still qualify me as a big shot, and it's nice travelling in luxury, very nice, and with lots of perks!

But on the other hand I go with Chica's costing $ 10-20 USD a pop, so in this instance I don't think I qualify anymore as big shot.

It's perhaps a "paradox", imagining a guy spending more on airline tickets than hookers in a year, and that was what my original post was about.

YippieKayay
05-29-20, 21:38
Quarantine extended until July 1st with some restrictions lifted. Domestic flights are still barred:

https://nationalpost.com/pmn/health-pmn/colombia-extends-national-quarantine-until-july

I honestly think no one is going to be getting into that country this year, if they are there will be a few international flights before the second wave comes and Colombia closes its borders again.

EDIT:

More:

https://thecitypaperbogota.com/news/colombia-on-course-for-worlds-longest-lockdown-after-extension-to-july-1/25236

Knowledge
05-29-20, 22:01
This won't age well.


Quarantine extended until July 1st with some restrictions lifted. Domestic flights are still barred:

https://nationalpost.com/pmn/health-pmn/colombia-extends-national-quarantine-until-july

I honestly think no one is going to be getting into that country this year, if they are there will be a few international flights before the second wave comes and Colombia closes its borders again.

EDIT:

More:

https://thecitypaperbogota.com/news/colombia-on-course-for-worlds-longest-lockdown-after-extension-to-july-1/25236

Surfer500
05-29-20, 22:55
Quarantine extended until July 1st with some restrictions lifted. Domestic flights are still barred:

https://nationalpost.com/pmn/health-pmn/colombia-extends-national-quarantine-until-july

I honestly think no one is going to be getting into that country this year, if they are there will be a few international flights before the second wave comes and Colombia closes its borders again.

EDIT:

More:

https://thecitypaperbogota.com/news/colombia-on-course-for-worlds-longest-lockdown-after-extension-to-july-1/25236I like you am not holding my breath for a gala re-opening of Colombia this year, and Bogota seems out of control. Maybe there will be a partial opening of the Country meaning like Medellin and other Cities. Interesting to note that now Colombia has the longest quarantine period for a Country in the World.

YippieKayay
05-30-20, 04:15
This won't age well.I understand your skepticism but please look at their graph for new confirmed cases:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/colombia/

The source is directly from the Ministry of Health. If you compare their graph to other countries it looks like Colombia is just starting to peak. Assuming its another 3 months of lockdown for the peak to end that puts us in September which is the start of the fall or the second wave. Every pandemic in recorded human history has had a second wave. Every single one.

SJobs
05-30-20, 04:19
I understand your skepticism but please look at their graph for new confirmed cases:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/colombia/

The source is directly from the Ministry of Health. If you compare their graph to other countries it looks like Colombia is just starting to peak. Assuming its another 3 months of lockdown for the peak to end that puts us in September which is the start of the fall or the second wave. Every pandemic in recorded human history has had a second wave. Every single one.Please don't turn this thread back into graphs, numbers, and depressing speculations. The current official date of opening is September 1st. This is something we can look forward to.

Paulie97
05-30-20, 08:45
No one was talking about you, as the world doesn't revolve around you, nor does it give a fuck about you. Stunning facts of life huh? Sobering as well. The issue was AA "Concierge Key" 50 K a year in tickets plus business class upgrades (woo woo) claimed by another poster (not you), but he's bobbing and weaving in the developing world around cops scooping low end street walkers. Add to that the fact that he says to just file a CC chargeback in lieu of any effort to first call the airline, and that well establishes that he's royally full if shit. One thing you'll notice if you hang around enough mongers is that many just love to lie. That's up to them, but when such translate into advice on the internet worth correcting. That said, who needs to brush up on their reading comprehension?


I suggest you read my post a little closer, you got your math off in that my reference to flying was based on 4 years, not one year. So how you came up with me spending 50 K a year on tickets is not correct. More like 12 K a year on tickets would be more accurate, and I guess that will still qualify me as a big shot, and it's nice travelling in luxury, very nice, and with lots of perks!

But on the other hand I go with Chica's costing $ 10-20 USD a pop, so in this instance I don't think I qualify anymore as big shot.

It's perhaps a "paradox", imagining a guy spending more on airline tickets than hookers in a year, and that was what my original post was about.

Knowledge
05-30-20, 14:06
There are more than a few "no one will be able to enter Colombia before 2021" predictions. I get the feeling there are guys who regret not being able to be here or deciding to not be here when they could have and now somehow find comfort in promoting scenarios that would prolong the quarantine and closed border. I don't quite understand it. At any rate the quarantine is effectively over here. The President is getting flak from the Mayor of Bogota who blames his order to reopen the economy for spikes in infections in several Bogota barrios. This is the same Mayor who was caught violating quarantine rules last month.


Please don't turn this thread back into graphs, numbers, and depressing speculations. The current official date of opening is September 1st. This is something we can look forward to.

Zeos1
05-30-20, 15:24
Please don't turn this thread back into graphs, numbers, and depressing speculations. The current official date of opening is September 1st. This is something we can look forward to.Dreaming about, yes. As far as looking forward to. Not quite.

Certainly not putting out any money booking tickets, etc. That's where it gets real. I don't want to book and then have to try to collect my refund, future flight credit. Whatever. Now I know in US apparently if they cancel they have to refund you. But not so where I am. And basically airlines can't afford to do the full refund route. So I'm not giving them any of my money to sit on for some possible unknown future flight. I already have my frequent flyer points doing that. Not sure if I'll ever be able to cash those in.