PDA

View Full Version : USA Stocks and markets



Midwestern
07-13-20, 03:00
I think my fellow mongers will have some great opinions and insights into this topic.

USA Stock market valuations are crazy high in the age of Covid. Let's discuss. I will start.

I bought stocks like crazy back in late March. But I didn't think the markets would bounce back so quickly. Many tech stocks are at their all time highs. So, I started selling, to realize the gains. Stocks that I sold recently include AMZN, MSFT, TSLA, NFLX, and AAPL. I also sold a bunch of ETFs that are technology oriented. I may buy all of these back if there's a 10% dip.

What are your thoughts on the markets, and on any stocks in particular? Any thoughts whatsoever are welcome.

Zeos1
07-13-20, 03:49
I think my fellow mongers will have some great opinions and insights into this topic.

USA Stock market valuations are crazy high in the age of Covid. Let's discuss. I will start.

I bought stocks like crazy back in late March. But I didn't think the markets would bounce back so quickly. Many tech stocks are at their all time highs. So, I started selling, to realize the gains. Stocks that I sold recently include AMZN, MSFT, TSLA, NFLX, and AAPL. I also sold a bunch of ETFs that are technology oriented. I may buy all of these back if there's a 10% dip.

What are your thoughts on the markets, and on any stocks in particular? Any thoughts whatsoever are welcome.Unfortunately I have my stocks in another country (in terms of hindsight. The stocks above, as an example, have performed incredibly well).

But my thoughts are that the impact of the mushrooming Covid cases in the US in particular is going to squelch the optimism about the "reopening". So basically I see a lot of downside risk. Internationally, but because of what happens with markets in the US mainly. Biology will rule the day I'm afraid, and the recovery for company earnings, etc. May be a lot further away than the market in general has been thinking lately.

But, having said that. There are a lot of smart people out there, and those that have my view are in the minority.

Midwestern
07-13-20, 16:31
Unfortunately I have my stocks in another country (in terms of hindsight. The stocks above, as an example, have performed incredibly well).

But my thoughts are that the impact of the mushrooming Covid cases in the US in particular is going to squelch the optimism about the "reopening". So basically I see a lot of downside risk. Internationally, but because of what happens with markets in the US mainly. Biology will rule the day I'm afraid, and the recovery for company earnings, etc. May be a lot further away than the market in general has been thinking lately.

But, having said that. There are a lot of smart people out there, and those that have my view are in the minority.Markets are up again today.

But consider this. Aside from the big tech stocks, the entire rest of the market is still way down from their pre-Covid highs. So,. Are the markets in general really overvalued? Much of the non tech stocks are barely above their March lows. Maybe the way to play this is to buy the non tech stuff. It's going to be hard making money in the tech stocks now.

I started value hunting today, such as GD, LMT, DOW, etc.

JustForFun02
07-13-20, 17:05
I think my fellow mongers will have some great opinions and insights into this topic.

USA Stock market valuations are crazy high in the age of Covid. Let's discuss. I will start.

I bought stocks like crazy back in late March. But I didn't think the markets would bounce back so quickly. Many tech stocks are at their all time highs. So, I started selling, to realize the gains. Stocks that I sold recently include AMZN, MSFT, TSLA, NFLX, and AAPL. I also sold a bunch of ETFs that are technology oriented. I may buy all of these back if there's a 10% dip.

What are your thoughts on the markets, and on any stocks in particular? Any thoughts whatsoever are welcome.Due to all the money printing by the fed and other central banks, there is too much liquidity chasing few high quality stocks, also treasury yields are near 0 throughout the developed world, hence investor do not find any other investment attractive and are chasing few good quality stocks, but this is a very narrow bull market, the damage to the economies are real, in course of time fundamentals will catch up with the price. The base case of these high quality stocks like AMZN is that big will be bigger and gain market share at cost of others and there is no chance of them going bankrupt. Since they have run up quite a lot you can either book partial profit by sell some quantity or keep trailing the momentum using trailing stop loss.

Midwestern
07-13-20, 18:06
Due to all the money printing by the fed and other central banks, there is too much liquidity chasing few high quality stocks, also treasury yields are near 0 throughout the developed world, hence investor do not find any other investment attractive and are chasing few good quality stocks, but this is a very narrow bull market, the damage to the economies are real, in course of time fundamentals will catch up with the price. The base case of these high quality stocks like AMZN is that big will be bigger and gain market share at cost of others and there is no chance of them going bankrupt. Since they have run up quite a lot you can either book partial profit by sell some quantity or keep trailing the momentum using trailing stop loss.So, what are you doing with your portfolio? Just sitting on the sidelines, or anything active? You obviously know the jargon, so you must know this game, and thus I'm curious.

SfoCowboy
07-13-20, 18:34
The biggest risk is of currency losing its value due to this reckless printing. I hope you have some of yellow metal and are holding on to it. I'the also advise you do buy diversified currencies like CHF etc. Basically developed countries that are not printing too much and have hard working people.


I think my fellow mongers will have some great opinions and insights into this topic.

USA Stock market valuations are crazy high in the age of Covid. Let's discuss. I will start.

I bought stocks like crazy back in late March. But I didn't think the markets would bounce back so quickly. Many tech stocks are at their all time highs. So, I started selling, to realize the gains. Stocks that I sold recently include AMZN, MSFT, TSLA, NFLX, and AAPL. I also sold a bunch of ETFs that are technology oriented. I may buy all of these back if there's a 10% dip.

What are your thoughts on the markets, and on any stocks in particular? Any thoughts whatsoever are welcome.

JustForFun02
07-13-20, 18:42
So, what are you doing with your portfolio? Just sitting on the sidelines, or anything active? You obviously know the jargon, so you must know this game, and thus I'm curious.I don't trade US markets, I trade Indian markets but US is the mother market, most global markets follow US cues, that's why I know whatever little I know about the US markets. I am a full time trader, so basically I take both long and short positions.

We have a saying here " Price is God" and " Market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvant " . So basically if you are holding stocks keep holding until the prices are rising and that's why you have to keep a stop loss, so when stocks start to fall you get out with some profit.

Beijing4987
07-13-20, 19:05
Biden's not radical or left, any more than Slick Willy or O'Bummer or "Crazy Nancy" Take a look at their records of fluffing Wall Street while reaping the benefits themselves. Remember Mark (Deepthroat) Felt. "follow the money". There is only one grand old party. The working class becomes left when realize the grim reality. Any dissenters get crushed if they become a threat. Andrew Jackson eliminated the "40 acres and a mule" for freed slaves. Redlining and lynchings topped off the program.

Midwestern
07-14-20, 00:27
The biggest risk is of currency losing its value due to this reckless printing. I hope you have some of yellow metal and are holding on to it. I'the also advise you do buy diversified currencies like CHF etc. Basically developed countries that are not printing too much and have hard working people.For a while, the demand for USD was stronger than the demand for gold. This kept the currency value stable. If it does tumble, it might help exports. I'm not too worried about inflation, given that it is currently low and that it would be easy for the Fed to raise rates (either by unloading their bloated assets or by increasing the overnight rates directly).

Midwestern
07-14-20, 00:29
I don't trade US markets, I trade Indian markets but US is the mother market, most global markets follow US cues, that's why I know whatever little I know about the US markets. I am a full time trader, so basically I take both long and short positions.

We have a saying here " Price is God" and " Market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvant " . So basically if you are holding stocks keep holding until the prices are rising and that's why you have to keep a stop loss, so when stocks start to fall you get out with some profit.I bought INDA a while back. Has done well. Should I buy more?

Midwestern
07-14-20, 00:38
UPWK down 9. 45%. Anyone buying this dip?

Any of you guys bullish on Chinese stocks? BABA, BIDU, JD, TCEHY, etc?

JustForFun02
07-14-20, 05:09
I bought INDA a while back. Has done well. Should I buy more?India has same dichotomy as US, few stocks doing well but overall market breath is poor. In India we had the strictest lockdown with very little social support, hence I believe we are one of the worst affected country by the pandemic, I am in general bearish on all markets currently, my major holding is gold. Like I told for US stocks, same for Indian stocks, you can either partially book profit or keep trailing your stops, I am not buying now.

Disclaimer: Markets are very dynamic and things change rapidly and I change my opinion with it, suppose we get a vaccine sooner than expected it may fuel another round of rally. Hence I deserve a right to be wrong. Do your due diligence before taking any decision.

Midwestern
07-19-20, 12:26
In the next couple of weeks, USA will decide whether to do another stimulus. I guess the number that is being tossed around is $1. 2 trillion, but Democrats want it to be higher.

Also, USA will decide whether to let the unemployment payments stop. Right now, the $600 weekly unemployment checks are scheduled to stop on July 31. Republicans want these payments to end, because these payments are discouraging people from going back to work.

However, the virus continues to ravage the USA. Seems like 21 states have decided to delay their reopening to varying degrees.

Jamie Dimon, the CEO of JPM, said that this could totally go either way, way up or way down. He said there is no one way anyone can know which way this will go.

What do you guys think? Should we stay in the markets, or bail now?

Khaveen
07-19-20, 20:09
I have some stocks, and my knowledge isn't great but I have an advantage in that my family has been involved in the stock market in NYC for a long time. My father used to be a trader on the floor of the NYSE in the 50's and have some cousins who work at Cantor Fitzgerald.

One thing that is good is volatility in certain sectors. Was given advice by a cousin whose in the business that there's potential to make some $$$ playing a bounce on some stocks, specifically Airlines.

I bought United, Delta, Southwest and American on May 4-5th or so took out a short term margin loan and got about 1000 of each. (interest rate sucked).

Watched them like a hawk for about 30 or so days and around the 6-8th of June the prices bounced nice and my cousin told me when you double up on gains on a loan it's best to take your $$$ and go. I did my dump and got good timing but if I had held on for another day or so I could have made a bit more.

Results were:

Buy Sold.

Delta 21 35.

United 22 42.

American 9 18.

Southwest 25 38.

The positive. If you have stocks you can leverage to get short term margin loans this is a good way (not easy or absolutely safe) to make some cash.

The negative. Once you have your strategy you have to be on it and be dedicated to monitoring your stocks so you can get your sell order in before it blows up on you.

You get hit with the interest on the loan and of course the capitol gains and fed, state taxes. Etc.

The only reason I did this is that business for me is slow (had time to keep track of this deal), and had expert advice from my family (who were doing the same play).

This will work in a lot of market sectors that have are going to be volatile in the short term.

Airlines, Transportation, Automotive, Real Estate, Tech, Heavy Industry could be potential for short term trade.

Just have to research and have the tools.

MonkeyPaw
07-20-20, 12:00
It may all come crashing soon. It's how the end of the world works.

JustForFun02
07-20-20, 17:39
In the next couple of weeks, USA will decide whether to do another stimulus. I guess the number that is being tossed around is $1. 2 trillion, but Democrats want it to be higher.

Also, USA will decide whether to let the unemployment payments stop. Right now, the $600 weekly unemployment checks are scheduled to stop on July 31. Republicans want these payments to end, because these payments are discouraging people from going back to work.

However, the virus continues to ravage the USA. Seems like 21 states have decided to delay their reopening to varying degrees.

Jamie Dimon, the CEO of JPM, said that this could totally go either way, way up or way down. He said there is no one way anyone can know which way this will go.

What do you guys think? Should we stay in the markets, or bail now?I believe all the incremental news are positive, vaccine trails are positive, there will be a new stimulus, the amount may vary, but still positive, though the cases are rising, corresponding deaths are not rising proportionally, but a lot of this is already in the price, it may move side ways for coming days, I am not expecting a big down move.

Midwestern
07-23-20, 16:25
I have some stocks, and my knowledge isn't great but I have an advantage in that my family has been involved in the stock market in NYC for a long time. My father used to be a trader on the floor of the NYSE in the 50's and have some cousins who work at Cantor Fitzgerald.

One thing that is good is volatility in certain sectors. Was given advice by a cousin whose in the business that there's potential to make some $$$ playing a bounce on some stocks, specifically Airlines.

I bought United, Delta, Southwest and American on May 4-5th or so took out a short term margin loan and got about 1000 of each. (interest rate sucked).

Watched them like a hawk for about 30 or so days and around the 6-8th of June the prices bounced nice and my cousin told me when you double up on gains on a loan it's best to take your $$$ and go. I did my dump and got good timing but if I had held on for another day or so I could have made a bit more.

Results were:

Buy Sold.

Delta 21 35.

United 22 42.

American 9 18.

Southwest 25 38.

The positive. If you have stocks you can leverage to get short term margin loans this is a good way (not easy or absolutely safe) to make some cash.

The negative. Once you have your strategy you have to be on it and be dedicated to monitoring your stocks so you can get your sell order in before it blows up on you.

You get hit with the interest on the loan and of course the capitol gains and fed, state taxes. Etc.

The only reason I did this is that business for me is slow (had time to keep track of this deal), and had expert advice from my family (who were doing the same play).

This will work in a lot of market sectors that have are going to be volatile in the short term.

Airlines, Transportation, Automotive, Real Estate, Tech, Heavy Industry could be potential for short term trade.

Just have to research and have the tools.Wow, very well done! What are your current strategies?

Khaveen
07-23-20, 23:48
Wow, very well done! What are your current strategies?Volatility for short term gains. Look for stocks that were good bets traditionally but now are getting hit by the economy and Covid. Look at the 30-90 days trends and try to capitalize. Short selling may be a good strategy on some stocks but has a higher risk compared to a buy low dump high play on a leveraged portfolio. I prefer to leverage my own stock portfolio rather than borrow $$ or stocks and hope I hit a short on the money. Some big energy companies are doing poorly now and may be worth playing and some are doing really well and may slide. Apache Corp is one energy company that's doing well despite the current situation and was at $33+ and now is down to $14 so it's a maybe play that I have been watching and scored on. Apache went from $25 to $9 in less than 3 days in the Beginning of March (got a tip again) and dropped to $4 at the end. Got about 2000 shares on advise and held them for about 25 days until it hit about $15 and then dumped. That stock hit 17+ and then started to slide again. Let some get away but it was an easy $10 K + after taxes etc.

Airlines will take another hit according to my cousin. They are an easy and obvious score plus any travel or vacation related stock. Cruise ship lines, etc.

Looking at the trends shows there's no real rational to whose doing well and whose not. Check the winning / loser trends and look for the 10% or more moves in price that makes it worth it. Obviously big ticket stocks that have high share prices are not ideal for this. But anything in the 3 - 40 dollar range is. If one company is having stock problems it may be affecting that whole industry or sector. Most of this is just being on top of it. I used stockmarketeye on my PC and have a jstock and use bloomberg on my blackberry plus some other things.

If you can swing it and keep on top of it there's income potential. Do get overconfident, don't go big high prices stocks. Easier to do on a 10 dollar stock that a 100 dollar. Simple plan, simple forecast and be agile and ready to react.

I have made about 75 K+ after taxes etc. On about ten stock deals in the last 6 months. Max risked was about 70 k on the Airlines but walked away with 34 K clear. Normally I don't risk that much but that situation merited it. I own my cousin a dinner at Peter Luger's when Covid clears up. He got me the heads up.

Midwestern
07-24-20, 12:07
Volatility for short term gains. Look for stocks that were good bets traditionally but now are getting hit by the economy and Covid. Look at the 30-90 days trends and try to capitalize. Short selling may be a good strategy on some stocks but has a higher risk compared to a buy low dump high play on a leveraged portfolio. I prefer to leverage my own stock portfolio rather than borrow $$ or stocks and hope I hit a short on the money. Some big energy companies are doing poorly now and may be worth playing and some are doing really well and may slide. Apache Corp is one energy company that's doing well despite the current situation and was at $33+ and now is down to $14 so it's a maybe play that I have been watching and scored on. Apache went from $25 to $9 in less than 3 days in the Beginning of March (got a tip again) and dropped to $4 at the end. Got about 2000 shares on advise and held them for about 25 days until it hit about $15 and then dumped. That stock hit 17+ and then started to slide again. Let some get away but it was an easy $10 K + after taxes etc.

Airlines will take another hit according to my cousin. They are an easy and obvious score plus any travel or vacation related stock. Cruise ship lines, etc.

Looking at the trends shows there's no real rational to whose doing well and whose not. Check the winning / loser trends and look for the 10% or more moves in price that makes it worth it. Obviously big ticket stocks that have high share prices are not ideal for this. But anything in the 3 - 40 dollar range is. If one company is having stock problems it may be affecting that whole industry or sector. Most of this is just being on top of it. I used stockmarketeye on my PC and have a jstock and use bloomberg on my blackberry plus some other things.

If you can swing it and keep on top of it there's income potential. Do get overconfident, don't go big high prices stocks. Easier to do on a 10 dollar stock that a 100 dollar. Simple plan, simple forecast and be agile and ready to react.

I have made about 75 K+ after taxes etc. On about ten stock deals in the last 6 months. Max risked was about 70 k on the Airlines but walked away with 34 K clear. Normally I don't risk that much but that situation merited it. I own my cousin a dinner at Peter Luger's when Covid clears up. He got me the heads up.That's awesome, man. Congrats. But that's a lot of swallow. Anything easy to do or focus on? Look at airlines again?

Khaveen
07-24-20, 20:38
That's awesome, man. Congrats. But that's a lot of swallow. Anything easy to do or focus on? Look at airlines again?Judging from today's markets airlines are holding steady. "BUT". I would guess with Covid jumping up again and the EU banning US travelers Airlines may have a dramatic short term hit in the near future. Hotels maybe. Certain res.

Cruise ship stocks may be a good bet once the Covis gets sorted out but that's some time out. Looking at a few of those socks there's potential to exploit. Carnival Corp. Went from $17 on 6/3 to $24 on 6/8 and back down to $17 on 6/11. That's a lot of jump in the price in 10 days. The advice I have been given is stay within the means you have, don't bet the farm, stick with moderately priced stocks (I never go in over $60 a share) when you're betting. Don't take stupid interest rates if you're borrowing to do trades. I have two portfolio's. One is investment grade keepers and certain mutual funds, and the other is stocks that get bought and dumped that I am gambling on. It is gambling make no bones about that. Information and any intelligence you can get makes your bet more secure. Being informed and knowledge is the key. Be prepared to take a hit. For every 3-4 great trades I usually have one fuck up or dog that costs me. Nature of the game. There's no easy way, either you get into it and play it or not. There's no halfway and no easy.

Khaveen
06-28-21, 18:49
Lately I have been following the airlines stocks mostly due to the volatility and issues that are happening due to the Covid situation.

Seems American Airlines is taking a hit now. Their stock went from $22.23 on Friday and dropped to $21.25 today at 10:30 am.

Judging by what's being said on various sources looks like America Airlines is going through some short term problems.

This is today prices so far:

Open 22.09.

High 22.09.

Low 21.14.

I've bought at $21.19 for about 2500 shares. I might play it long and try for a big profit or just take what I can in a 2 week hold on it.

Canada
06-28-21, 21:56
UPWK down 9. 45%. Anyone buying this dip?

Any of you guys bullish on Chinese stocks? BABA, BIDU, JD, TCEHY, etc?There is money to be made on Chinese stocks but I think the risks aren't worth it. For a very sophisticated trader they can do some short term trades that make money but the Chinese can't be trusted. Stick to the basics. The USA markets are strong. If Biden does nothing they will remain strong and their is a good chance he will get nothing done as his history shows. If he gets his capital gains taxes implemented we could see a quick 5% drop. Especially on dividend stocks.

Vagabundo1
07-16-21, 14:09
Anyone trade ETFs, EEM, SPY, QQQ? Options?