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Dinghy,
I understand what you're saying about a discrete event having the same probability, and that the effect is not cumulative if you are considering each test individualy. However, when checking the probability of an event occuring once in x tries, then you are playing with a different rule. If the probability for an event occuring on any particular 'roll of the dice' is P, then the probability of an event occuring once in X tries is x*P. This is because the probability is basically an or statement: P that Event occurs on try 1, or P that event occurs on try 2, etc... Basic probability. :)
In obepo's case (using my prior assumptions), the probability he will contract HIV on any particular uncovered encounter with a pro is always .02. However, when testing the probability that he contracted it in 200 tries, we get 200*.02 = 1.
And, I definitely agree with you about the risk being too high!
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PurpleNGold,
If one in two hundred is not acceptable what about one in five million? Where do you draw your own line? We all take risks even flying on a plane to Thailand, so what level of risks is acceptable?
Sexreview
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C'mon, Dude!
You mean you want to die, or be disease inflected for a lifetime. All, b/c cause you do't want to use a condom.
15min, to 2 hours of pleasure, for death, duh?
I want to have fun, not die.
Is it worth it? Just get a gf, then you don't have to use any.
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PnG - then by your mathematical reasoning, if he did it X400 the probability would be _2_ (and probability can never exceed "1")
<smile>
SR - I sort of doubt the 1 / 5meg probability rate - While I'm no expert in means of transmission of HiV, I seriously doubt if it's necessarily that much different from clap or syph and they both infect thru the urethra.
As to air transport, though - it's an acceptable risk (low enough to be in the noise - lower than the chance of winning the lottery. I assume the 5meg rate is based on "normal" hetero??
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SR, is there a solid source, coming from some sort of study, for those numbers? I've seen tons of different ones, and they also vary according to the sex act involved. There are tons of ways to massage those numbers -- they may, for example, be talking about a random encounter, where you're coming into contact with any woman in the US, which is different from coming into contact with a sex provider in LOS. Talking about strict transmission possibilities and giving numbers that include rates of possible exposure are two very different things, as the latter are much more situation-specific.
As I mentioned previously, according to a study done by CDC folks specifically about the issue, not wearing a condom is 20 times riskier than wearing one, in terms of contracting HIV, which is different from the number you quoted which says ten times. I'd be interested in tracking down the differences.
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Guys, It seems to me that the mongers who go condomless are missing the big picture. Always when debating whether to suit up or not for FS the focus always seems to be on HIV.
I've read where a lot of doctor's are now saying that Hep C is just as dangerous as HIV. It is about 200 times as easy to catch as HIV, has a long incubation period where you show no symptoms, and results in a chronic illness progressing to liver failure and death. Interferon which works part of the time is like having the worst flu you ever had for a year.
In fact I read one physican who was quoted as saying with all the new treatments on the horizon for HIV, if he had to choose between the two he'd pick HIV.
Then of course is Hep B which is very common and extremely easy to pass sexually. It's often not too bad but increases the liklihood of liver cancer exponentially.
How about warts? I don't really like the idea of ugly and painful warts all over my dick which grow back as fast as the doctor can burn them off. Heck, if I had only twenty years to live I think I would rather have HIV.
Herpes: yuck!
The Clap: hey pissing razor blades is just not my cup of tea. But for you masochists out there.
Lots of nasties out there and I just like myself too much not to cover up.
Civ2000
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Dinghy,
A probability greater than 1 doesn't have real physical significance, but it can arise mathematically when dealing with these types of problems.
Basically, if I say I rolled the dice a thousand times, I can say that the probability is greater than 1 that I rolled a seven at least one time out of that thousand. However, physically it's possible (though extremely improbable) that I didn't roll a seven at all. And, if you ask what's the probability of rolling a 7 on the next roll then the probability is, correctly, less than 1.
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It is particularly weard people panic when talking about HIV. The chances you catch HIV by bloodtransfusion or other means besides sexual contacts are close to equal. I guess lots of us are too much Media addicted.
Other infections like stated by Civ2000 are more due to sexual contacts and therefore more dangereous to be caught! And not so very "in demand" on media channels.
As far as it goes to punting and not having knowledge of the background of the girl, be safe and wear your preservatives.
When one decides to take a week or 2 weeks with one single girl (which happens in Thailand) you have more chances to know who you are dealing with, getting background info. Also the possiblity to make a medical checkup on her. This will give you certain insurances about most usual STD's, whereoff the tests give instant results or short term reports. So why not go without preservatives when all above conditions are fullfilled? Indeed, it is up to you anyhow. And nobody will give you a 100 percent certainty you will not catch anything.
If you really want to be "preserved" from STD's do not *****monger/swing anylonger. Become a monk. And stay away from the scene. Take a wife, get married and just hope she does not screw around, otherwise your chances are going up again.
I recon I could role a 7 on a dice at that moment PnG, maybe even with a 6-eyed dice.
So lets say take your chances but bear in mind you cannot do it with everyone.
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Cream on Top,
Finally, a reasonable post on this subject rather than the nonsense statistical fiction one usually sees. It comes down to that - if you want to be perfectly safe, stay home and masturbate. Personally I don't find condom-sex enjoyable in any way, and can't understand why anyone would want to pay for it or find it preferable to masturbating at home. But I respect other's right to be unrealistic hypochondriacs.
This is an issue that seems to attract a lot of puritans and busy-bodies. Whether or not to use condoms is a personal choice. Alas, some people like PurpleNGold, et al, simply don't respect others or their right to choice.
The facts are the risk is very, very tiny, and - I hate to be the one to break this to you - one isn't going to live forever anyway. If one were this unreasonable about all risks one could never drive a car or take a shower standing up - might slip! Puritans just have a different calculus of risk for hedonistic activities than they do for unpleasant or mundane activities. While I can respect their choice, I like to remind them it has nothing to do with reason.
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Obepo, in case you didn't notice, the prior post by Cream on Top was not in support of your argument. He was referring to a different situation entirely (an LTR). Cream on Top, was talking about going bareback with a girl after you have her tested and have a reasonable assurance that she's clean.
I would still disagree with going bareback due to the dangers ending up with bastard children. I don't think Cream's suicidal or psychotic like Obepo, and wouldn't put him even in the same ballpark.
As for not respecting other people's rights to their own choices, I'm a pro-choice guy. However, You don't have the right to make choices that raise everyone else's level of risk.
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The point, PurpleNGold, was that Cream on Top's position was a reasonable one, unlike your knee-jerk one.
The fact remains, its none of your business what other people do sexually, and it has nothingwhatever to do with your risk.
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Opebo - well... the issue of YOUR going BB and your knee-jerk reaction to someone attempting to inform you of the risks point out your own misunderstanding of the "sharing the wealth". ASSUMING "we" (as in the community out here) don't BB, (BBBJ not included) "we" won't spread the nasties. Frankly, _I_ don't care what _you_ do (after all, it's YOUR life). IF you want to take the risk, that's OK.
PnG - depending on how many time you are with whomever poo ying, yes, there are chances of producing offspring. Hvaing her figure out WHO you REALLY are, though, is another matter entirely. They never get anything real from me (my nickname is "doi" (mountain) and that's all they get) - and where I stay doesn't even ask for anything except a "name" and baht so I'm relatively untraceable.
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You have to care somewhat. This is someone life you are talking about. Whether, it is man, or woman, No one deserve to catch this disease, even if you can prevent it.
My life is worth more than 15 min. to 2 hours of fun, than prolonging death. I love my life more than that. The girls in Thailand, just want to survive, and support their families. They are willing to do anything to do that. You can't blame them. Us, We are lucky SOB, from the western world, that we can having anything we want, or need. With convertion of the dollars in our favor, we live like King, if we want. Why spoil a good thing?
Any Sex worker is high risk. If you are going to do that, then you have to go to countries where the risk is low. Unfortunately, Thailand is not one of them.
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Ouch, Dinghy, and with all due respect, I hate to say it but that attitude is just as troubling as not worrying about whether or not you're spreading STDs. Creating kids and disappearing without a trace is hardly the most honorable policy. (I know you're not doing that, but that's the way it comes off.)
And Opebo, I presume you're including your own "nonsense statistical fiction" in your statement, as you've certainly thrown enough unsubstantiated numbers and statements around here. I fully agree with you that using or not using condoms is a personal choice -- but advocating for responsible mongering is hardly being a "puritan." The bottom line is that everyone here's out banging multiple partners for baht, and very often the same partners, so one person's choices can affect another's.
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Ok Guys,
We can all pretend that there are no STD's in Thailand. We can calculate the percentage of catching something. But, it only takes one time. Bareback is very easy to get there along with alot of other things. If you do get a girl knocked up. What happens if you go back there next year and run in to her. You probally won't but there is always a chance you could. The goverment is very harsh with this offense if she reports you. It is best to stay safe each time so you live to go back next year.