Macro-Colombia: A Perspective
Originally posted in the Medellin forum, for future reference this information properly belongs on the Crime In Colombia board. For those interested in comparing homicide rates of Colombian cities to US cities I found the FBI had the best and most current information.
[url]http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/cius2006/offenses/violent_crime/murder_homicide.html[/url]
The original post reads:
For the last two years I have been listening to dozens of travellers say "Colombia is safe!" All I have to say is: %&*Ç@ off. Mirroring the thoughts of other board members I too am weary of individuals trying to downplay the risks of Colombia. Yes today is better compared to what it was but the country's murder rate is still very high -- never mind all the other crime stats.
There is one thing I find lacking on the ISG-Colombia forum(s). There is a lot of chatter about how dangerous Colombia is -- individual cities like Cali, Bogota, Medellin, the countryside, etc. -- but I have yet to find a hard reference to what individuals may be familiar with. Give me context! How dangerous is dangerous? What are the specifics? Lonely Planet writes "murders are down 40%." So does that mean in 2002 there were ten people murdered, in 2007 only six? Hardly. Generic statements like this are misleading and annoying.
On the ISG-Rio Crime & Safety board I once broke down the numbers to prove what country was more dangerous, Brazil or the US. Time to do the same thing for Colombia and the US. Here are the official numbers for Colombia:
Countrywide murders 2007: 15,400 (citizens only, not including combat deaths). Population 44,000,000 makes for 35 murders per 100,000.
Countrywide murders 2006: 17,206
Countrywide murders 2005: 17,726.
Countrywide murders 2003: 23,013
Countrywide murders 2002: 28,837
The numbers for the United States are:
Countrywide murders/manslaughters 2006: 17,034. Population 301,000,000 makes for 5.7 murders per 100,000.
Countrywide murders/manslaughters 2005: 16,900
First of all I trust the US numbers more than I do Colombia's. Each year in Colombia I think there is an additional few thousand individuals who are slaughtered, shot, macheted, gutted, etc., then thrown into open pits like road kill -- and they never make the official police counts. But let us use what we have.
Colombia has 14.6% of the US population yet has 90.4% of its murders.
Put another way, Colombia has 1/7 of the US population but 6x the murder rate.
If we extrapolated Colombia to have an equal US population of 301,000,000 its murder rate at 35 per 100,000 would be the equivalent of 105,350 individuals per year (301,000,000 * 35 / 100,000 = x, x = 105350).
This is "safe" Colombia in 2008.
How can I justify being here? It is simple: half lunacy, half rationality. In 2006 while in Ecuador I watched Uribe's re-election, then while travelling other S. American countries over the course of two years I waited for confirmation of the improving trend. I got it. Uribe has two more years to go. While I would like to be optimistic about Colombia's future I am wary of Latin American politics: two steps forward, three steps back. Is Colombia's next president going to continue improvements? Is it different for Colombia this time around? I don't know. So I am sliding into Colombia on the tail end of Uribe's terms to take a look at the country.
For interest the latest city specific numbers I can find are: Bogotá's kill rate is 23 per 100,000. Cartagena is 22 per 100,000 (275 murders in 2006 using population 1,240,000). Medellin 29 per 100,000 (2007 article). Cali 65 per 100,000 (year unknown).
Where in Columbia should I go?
I don't have a computer and am now using the library, which only gives me a short time on the Internet. I just do not have the time to spend hours browsing this website to find the answers to this question:
Would like to know which cities or areas in Columbia have babe "action", and are not too dangerous. Also, is the babe action just "houses", or are there bars or discos with action? If so, can you name the houses, bars and discos so I can find them?
I assume Medellin is not safe. I would probably travel this coming Fall (2009). Also, any nice beaches where I probably won't get killed? Please be honest. I won't go to Columbia if it is too dangerous. You can answer here or PM me. Appreciate anyone's help.