Historical parallels are always a bit tricky
[QUOTE=WyattEarp;2675806]It was interesting and tragic to see what Russification has brought to Crimea and the Eastern Ukraine.
I read further on the author's views on challenging Russia to break Putin's continue cycle of scaling up conflict. I have a couple issues with his views. First, the author's comparison to Nazi Germany is fallacious. The Russian military in 2022 is not as effective as Nazi Germany was relative to 1939. Second, NATO has always pursued a policy of containment and avoiding direct conflict. The policy worked until the corrupt and oppressive Soviet system crumbled from its own ineffectiveness.
One might say the invasion of the Ukraine is a brazen move. We however had Soviet violent invasions of Hungary and Czechoslovakia. NATO stood by and let the Soviets bully and dominate their neighbors. Unfortunately, I don't think the United States and NATO can be the policemen of the world. It also appears China is not interested in working with the Western alliance in preserving global peace.[/QUOTE]Since the Twitter user I linked to is a historian, it's not surprising he uses historical comparisons. But, as the saying goes about history rhyming but not repeating, there will always be elements that don't fully match.
It's my sense that the author views appeasement as something to be avoided because it will only feed the beast (as with WW-II and Hitler). We don't know how Putin will respond, but we know he views the West as weak and therefore anything less than a strong response is likely to fail. Lots of room for debate, that's for sure, but that's the gist of the author's argument.
You're certainly correct about 1939 German forces vs Russian forces now. Although it seems 2022 Russia had a high estimate of their own capabilities, especially in comparison to their low estimate of Ukraine's. Putin obviously didn't have an accurate and objective assessment, or things would have been done differently. He's had a reality check now, but he clearly believed in Russia's overwhelming military superiority. Hitler made a similar miscalculation when he launched Operation Barbarossa.
About Hungary and Czechoslovakia, both were charter members of the Warsaw Pact. This was in the 1950's and 60's. So, in a Cold War context, Soviet control and suppression of their satellite states, while being publicly and diplomatically condemned, would also have been viewed as internal to the Soviet Bloc. USSR-controlled territory was theirs to command and the West wasn't going to change that.
That's a far cry from today's situation. The USSR has dissolved and former Soviet Bloc countries have mostly gone their own way. Putin is now pursuing an expansionary campaign in a way the Cold War Soviets were not. At least one facet of his scheme appears to be a partial reconstruction of the Soviet era sphere of control, except now using the rationale of uniting ethnic Russians in a New (and Greater) Russia. Both Hungary and the Czech Republic are now NATO members and I doubt either country wants to turn back the clock. I'm not sure mid-20th Century Cold War circumstances are directly analogous here. Again, those tricky historical parallels may not fully apply.
One further problem with the Ukraine situation is that (IMO) it's a mistake to think Putin won't use any victory, or concessions, as license to pursue future aggressive expansions. Why would he hesitate to declare "de-Nazification" campaigns in the Baltics or elsewhere? And Greater Russia surely can't be denied a land corridor to Kaliningrad, right?
That's why the Twitter author takes a strong stand against appeasement. And, after considering the pros and cons of the matter, I tend to agree. How that plays out in a practical sense remains to be seen. But I don't see any indications that Putin will voluntarily stop.
Ukraine's Future with Putin's Plans.
Whizzing through so many sources and channels to see what the Future hold for Ukraine, I found this very interesting Article on Ukraine, and I am afraid it doesn't sound like a promising Future for the Brave and Lovely People of this Unfortunate country being destroyed.
[URL]https://www.israelhayom.com/opinions/ceasefire-agreement-may-come-too-late-for-ukraine/[/URL]
"Ceasefire agreement may come too late for Ukraine.
To avoid the appearance of failure, Russia may agree to a ceasefire in Ukraine only after ensuring it has turned the country into Syria's identical twin. "
About the writer of the Article, a Wiki search shows what A a Beauty With Brains Born in Moscow.
[URL]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ksenia_Svetlova[/URL]
Putin has guaranteed a stronger US presence in Europe
[QUOTE=PedroMorales;2676131]Prague's beauty is because the Wehrmacht did not destroy it in 1945. Prague has always been at the heart of Western / Central Europe. Lower Bohemia is where the Wars of the Reformation were fight, with 33% fatalities.
Prague has recently been colonized by flotsam, Americans in the main, pricing Czechs out of the market. It is a major centre of off kinds of shtt.
The 1914-45 European Civil War is over. It is time for the USA to pack up and fuck off back home to continue their manifest destiny of slaughtering the Natives and locking up Blacks.
Russia will bring Clown Zelensky and his Azov death squads to heel.[/QUOTE]Bosnia-Herzegovina and Georgia are already in the queue to join NATO, Sweden and Finland are having serious discussions to that end, and I fully expect more countries to follow suit. And, regardless of how many countries formally join NATO, it's a veritable certainty that the number of US troops in Europe will increase, and probably new bases established. Oh, and I don't see any member countries moving to leave the alliance (not Czechia, not anyone).
Putin may have the ability to destroy much of Ukraine, but he's simultaneously flushed the future of Russia down the toilet. Sanctions will last for years, if not decades. There's already a been a brain-drain going on that is likely to continue, if not increase, as young Russians confront the limited prospects of an isolated country. And let's all sit back and watch how long it takes "good friend" China to start tightening the screws on their newly acquired vassal state. I'm getting the popcorn ready now!
Once again it's clearly evident that your fantasies are irrelevant and that reality is firmly pointing in a direction that is guaranteed to make your head 'splode. Putin has strengthened the West, NATO, and the US, in a way that would never have happened had he not invaded. Sposibo bolshoye, Vlad!
P.S. I have no illusions about Ukraine. All their future paths are varying levels of dismal for years to come. But Russia, instead of playing the longer and more patient game (like China), gambled it all and is now staring into the abyss.
Glad you agree that US-led NATO is in the ascendancy
[QUOTE]Tell me something I don't know.[/QUOTE]My previous post had, as its central theme, the increasing influence of the US and NATO in Europe. Since you've not only failed to refute, but also affirmatively conceded the point, the argument has been conclusively won (by me).
[QUOTE]Zelensky, a clown by profession[/QUOTE]Speaking of argumentation, your penchant for ad hominem, whether directed against Zelensky or any who disagree with you, powerfully manifests both the weakness of your position and your lack of ability to effectively defend it.
As a fun thought-experiment, I wonder how you'd describe Putin if you weren't such a sycophant? Would you dwell on his short stature? Some reports list him at 165 cm (5'5") and mention that he uses lifts in shoes. Would you derisively observe that his height deficit makes it deliciously appropriate to wonder whether he suffers from a Napoleon Complex? If so, you'd be perfectly justified in pointing out that his need for macho demonstrations, like riding shirtless on horseback, is evidence of that. Then, for an encore, would you indulge in some hilarious comments about how such overcompensation mechanisms are often indicative of someone having a male "package" that is less than adequate?
Was poor Little Vlad teased and hazed in the KGB locker room? Maybe his friends could tell us? Oh, wait, anyone who teased him has probably been exterminated by now, and anyone left alive knows better than to talk.
Yessiree, I'm betting you'd have quite a field day with Little Vlad, if you ever decided to switch allegiances! He's such a juicy target for your ad hominem barbs, don't you think?
[QUOTE]The USA is the root of all evil[/QUOTE]Yeah, I'm sure that's your first thought in the morning and your last thought at night. I wonder if that attitude is shared by those who lost loved ones to Mao's Cultural Revolution (deaths estimated as high as 20 million)? Or, even more appropriately since Ukraine is our current focus, those who were victims of Stalin's Holodomor (deaths estimated as high as 7 million)?
It's heartening to see that, while your bias is intractable, the vast majority of Europe has clearly rejected Putinism (the new Stalinism) in favor of the Western model. And that model, for the foreseeable future, includes increased influence in Europe for the US and NATO.
[QUOTE]Europe has to get rid of its collaborators [/QUOTE][QUOTE]Hopefully, Russia[/QUOTE]
[QUOTE] Hopefully this time Uncle Sam[/QUOTE]Ah, yes! No post of yours would be complete without referencing your (futile) hopes and (desperate) dreams! Too bad for you that all the weight of reality and evidence is heading in the other direction, namely a deeper and more extensive collaboration between Europe and the US.