[QUOTE=Knowledge;2444540]What are your primary sources of news and economic data?[/QUOTE]The Federal Reserve meeting notes at 2:45 in this video - [URL]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LPRMdCSFI8E[/URL].
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[QUOTE=Knowledge;2444540]What are your primary sources of news and economic data?[/QUOTE]The Federal Reserve meeting notes at 2:45 in this video - [URL]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LPRMdCSFI8E[/URL].
To our perceptions and ways of understanding, they look like clever. However, virus, including Covid19, have no brain or consciousness. So they don't have purpose or intelligence. In contrast to bacteria, virus are not even organisms with life. Throughout centuries of evolutionary process, only the virus with a behavior that made them spread outlasted and survived.
[QUOTE=JohnClayton;2444563]Actually, a very clever virus. The purpose of CV is to survive and spread itself, which it is very, very good at doing.[/QUOTE]
[QUOTE=JjBee62;2444550]I'm thinking around the end of July. You've got Colombia to consider first. Duque appears to be holding firm, so probably easing back up to speed throughout June. Then there's the US to consider. I can see US restrictions mostly disappearing by the end of May, but whether or not other countries are going to allow in US passengers is another story. Then there are the stopovers, Panama for example. If you're switching planes in a place where things are still out of control, will Colombia let you in?
There will probably be an initial 14 day mandatory quarantine, but hopefully that will be removed before too long.
On another note, you and others may be right. Although it hasn't been peer-reviewed yet, and the scope is too narrow for statistical reliability, A Stanford University study found a higher rate of antibodies in the population than expected. Larger scale studies are either underway or planned.
It's not the Holy Grail. It potentially drops mortality rate down to only twice as high as the flu. However, it also demonstrates a much higher and quicker spread than the flu. So, it's (probably) less deadly than expected, but will infect more people, keeping the total number of deaths high.
We also don't yet know how effective those antibodies are against reinfection.[/QUOTE]I agree with all of this in a few months we're going to know a lot more about this disease and the governments are going to issue guidelines. There is definitely a possibility that airlines will be doing testing if anything they will add that cost to your ticket but airlines want to get back running as soon as possible. My personal feeling is it travel maybe possible late July / August without any quarantine restrictions. If not that definitely by October.
[QUOTE=TyDown;2444575]You're absolutely correct, the coronavirus has been around since the beginning of time, nothing new with here. The survival rate of people infected with Corona-19 is +99% . My point is, Why crash the Global economy? The common Flu is more dangerous. I'm calling bullshit on this one, there is something else going on that they are not telling us.[/QUOTE]How can you believe the stuff you're reading. Common flu more dangerous? When did a flu double every few days (as little as 4 days) and kill up to 4% of the people it infected. And kill 40,000 people in about a month in one country. I'm calling bullshit on you.
Of course there have been many different coronaviruses. It's a family of viruses including the common cold. But this new one is a very bad one. And without the measures that have been taken the deaths would have been many many times greater.
[QUOTE=JjBee62;2444550]
On another note, you and others may be right. Although it hasn't been peer-reviewed yet, and the scope is too narrow for statistical reliability, A Stanford University study found a higher rate of antibodies in the population than expected. Larger scale studies are either underway or planned.
It's not the Holy Grail. It potentially drops mortality rate down to only twice as high as the flu. However, it also demonstrates a much higher and quicker spread than the flu. So, it's (probably) less deadly than expected, but will infect more people, keeping the total number of deaths high.
We also don't yet know how effective those antibodies are against reinfection.[/QUOTE]I am not sure how sensitive the antibodies test is. The Covid test has only 70% sensitivity which would mean an even higher number. I am a little annoyed with the certainty with which so called scientists are predicting the second wave. It is almost like they got all this attention and still want to dominate the headlines.
We do not really have a good placebo control group, but I think Sweden versus its neighbors will be interesting. My opinion, really it was more of a feeling, is that the virus was so contagious that I am not sure how much social isolation helped. Sweden did not go overboard with isolation and has twice as many cases of the virus and deaths as their neighbors. Will that trend hold true once the other countries loosen up their isolation? If the trend holds, then that is good evidence that social isolation worked. If not, then it would lead me to believe that the only benefit of social isolation was not stopping the virus but slowing the spread at best. We shall see.
Anecdotally, there was a church near me where the preacher and his wife were sick and gave a sermon. They tested +. It has been over two weeks since the sermon, and the town was bracing for a huge outbreak after that. Everyone who went to the church and got symptoms got to be automatically tested. Three other people tested + and they all had mild symptoms. One person in that city, who got the virus and didn't go to church, was 89 and he was placed on hospice. So in this city, where people are not on top of each other like NYC, the amount of people who got sick was truly underwhelming.
I was in Mexico and had to scurry home because of talk of the Mexican border being shut down to all but essential services. Well, you can see for sure now that there was no reason for that. If you look at all of the counties in Texas and even into New Mexico touching Mexico, there have been only 50 deaths from the virus on the USA Side. Given the virus is organically growing everywhere now, I really do not get the concept of shutting down borders.
I think people who mock others who say "this is just the flu" do not understand how deadly "just the flu" can be. 20% of all cold viruses are in the corona family, and it kills tens of thousands of people every year. Was this virus super infectious? Super deadly? Or both? If the death rate turns out to really be 0. 2% versus 0. 1%, then do we really need to go crazy with all these precautions? The whole reason for social isolation, which seems to be forgotten now, was to flatten the curve so health care facilities were not overwhelmed. Well, we seemed to have crossed that threshold. Shouldn't the isolation start winding down now then?
This whole concept that we have to stay in isolation forever so you do not get a virus is crazy. Hell, if we cared so much about stopping deadly viruses from spreading, shouldn't we ban group day care and schools in general? That is where viruses typically grow. You could probably cut the annual death rate from influenza in half if you banned group daycare and elementary schools, but we keep them open because the benefit outweighs the risk.
[QUOTE=Surfer500;2444565]I highly doubt that Colombia will be opening up anytime soon[/QUOTE]Would you choose to stay or leave if you had another chance?
[QUOTE=Zeos1;2444632]How can you believe the stuff you're reading. Common flu more dangerous? When did a flu double every few days (as little as 4 days) and kill up to 4% of the people it infected. And kill 40,000 people in about a month in one country. I'm calling bullshit on you.[/QUOTE]Zeos in 2017 the virus killed 80,000. It is possible that this flu was not more deadly but one helluva lot more infectious. That would mean the deaths and infections would rise sharply and fall sharply.
[QUOTE=Elvis2008;2444645]I am not sure how much social isolation helped. Sweden did not go overboard with isolation and has twice as many cases of the virus and deaths as their neighbors. Will that trend hold true once the other countries loosen up their isolation? If the trend holds, then that is good evidence that social isolation worked. If not, then it would lead me to believe that the only benefit of social isolation was not stopping the virus but slowing the spread at best. We shall see.[/QUOTE]I think it has to do with how early you start the social isolation, and what is the cost? There probably is a point when the cost won't justify, then it may be considered like flu.
It is easier to evaluate immediate death number but it is difficult to evaluate long term pain, or death. How does one equate death with the amount of pain? Think about why some people commit suicide for various reasons. Why not just live and endure pain no matter how great it is?
[QUOTE=MojoBandit;2444487]YippieKayay is like a resident Colombian expert. YOu must not have been reading the Colombian Forum for very long.[/QUOTE]I have been reading this forum since before YippieKayay made his first post. Remember when he got ripped out going to Cartagena? You can have your opinion of an expect, and I will have mine. I think mine are more reliable.
[URL]https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/18/health/coronavirus-america-future.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share[/URL]
I read this article this morning and it gives a fascinating outlook on what can happen.
[QUOTE=JjBee62;2444550]t's not the Holy Grail. It potentially drops mortality rate down to only twice as high as the flu. However, it also demonstrates a much higher and quicker spread than the flu. So, it's (probably) less deadly than expected, but will infect more people, keeping the total number of deaths high.[/QUOTE]I think this solution does not consider a single mortality rate. It thinks there are two, one for high risk group, one for low risk group. It must have assumed the mortality rate of the low risk group is closer to mortality rate of flu. Or I will use a different number for argument's sake. Total number of deaths per 10 K residents (infected or not) for the low risk group is similar to flu.
If the above assumption is true or everyone can agree on, considering the amount of money US is spending, one extreme way the US can do is to quarantine the high risk group in the best hotels available free. Everyone in high risk group get early retirement with full retirement benefit or paid medical leave with job guarantee.
[QUOTE=Elvis2008;2444649]Zeos in 2017 the virus killed 80,000. It is possible that this flu was not more deadly but one helluva lot more infectious. That would mean the deaths and infections would rise sharply and fall sharply.[/QUOTE]Is that number USA Only or worldwide?
[QUOTE=Nounce;2444647]Would you choose to stay or leave if you had another chance?[/QUOTE]That's a good question which I have been contemplating now for a while.
My biggest concern about returning would be what type of healthcare I would get if I got infected and had to be hospitalized there. My plan is to wait until Colombia finally opens up again and I am assuming it's going to be a while, at least a few months. On that date who knows, maybe a readily available cure will be available, such as, Oh you have the clap, bend over, get a shot, and in few days your better. Highly unlikely though but who knows, I'm also going to get the anti-body test when Colombia formally opens back up, and if by some miracle I already had the virus and there's some evidence that I have immunity which isn't clear yet I will immediately return.
Again my biggest concern about returning would be having to be hospitalized. Yes there are some top notch Hospitals in Medellin, but they are just not going to have as much access to everything including treatments, etc. Like in the USA. I know others may differ on this, but you need to ask yourself, if your going to land up in a Hospital, and not by choice, where would you rather be.
On a optimistic note, as bad as this Pandemic is, and the wrath it has caused, the entire planets medical scientists and researchers are trying to come up with treatments / cure and a vaccine for the Virus. So with so many people working on it, hopefully by no later than sometime next year there will be a vaccine and things can return closer to normal.
[QUOTE=JohnClayton;2444258]Unfortunately, spoiling my warm, sunny idea is Guayaquil, which is right on the equator. I read they have bodies laying on the streets there;.[/QUOTE]There is an article about it.
[URL]https://news.yahoo.com/sunlight-destroys-coronavirus-very-quickly-new-government-tests-find-but-experts-say-pandemic-could-still-last-through-summer-200745675.html[/URL]
Belgium 490 deaths per million.
Netherlands 215.
Switzerland 156.
Sweden 150.
I don't even have to mention Italy (437), Spain (391) or France (302).
And that without any lockdown, it's called winning.