German Vice-Chancellor warns of Lehman Moment
[QUOTE=TheCane;2712713]I think it won't be until 2023 before there's a real chance of getting back to normal. But then again, there's a real chance the world might fall into a recession by then too! So even if the fresh, young tutes are ready to return by 2023, will the mongers be? Time will tell.[/QUOTE]RE: Recession, competitiveness of German economy has been partly predicated on cheap gas from Russia. Bloomberg reports that that era is over. If Putin turns off the natural gas, it will be catastrophic for Europe, and that would obviously ripple to other parts of the globe.
[QUOTE]The risks extend beyond beyond a recession, and a winter of freezing homes and shuttered factories. For decades, Germany has prospered off the back of cheap gas. The answer to the growing economys needs more often than not was a new pipeline to Russia.
That era is now over, and companies from BASF SE to Volkswagen AG are coming to terms with the new reality.
Firms making metals, paper and even food could be forced to downscale or close German production sites, accelerating a steady exodus of manufacturing jobs and leaving lasting damage to the countrys economic landscape.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-25/germany-risks-major-economic-disruption-from-russia-s-gas-squeeze[/QUOTE][QUOTE]The chemical industry accounts for about 15% of Germanys natural gas consumption.
For natural gas as a raw material, producers have no substitute in the short term.
As such, if the EU sanctioned gas imports from Russia, if Russia stopped exports or pipelines were to be damaged because of the war, production of basic chemicals in Germany would be affected, with some production curtailed or even halted.
This would impact not just the basic chemicals sector, but also downstream producers, along with Germanys overall manufacturing base.
[b]About 95% of industrial goods made in Germany require chemical inputs automotive, computer chips, building materials, consumer electronics, pharmaceuticals, detergents, and many others.[/b]
https://www.icis.com/explore/cn/resources/news/2022/03/17/10744821/russia-gas-embargo-would-force-german-chems-to-cut-or-halt-production-vci[/QUOTE]