Rants and WTF are you talking about and Coronavirus!

[QUOTE=RogueNation;2452944]Relation of deaths to # of inhabitants in Sweden is 3 x as high as in Germany. Trending worse.

No heard immunity around the corner there as well. Former forecasts of high percentages of infections (30%) for Stockholm have been reduced to around 7% max.

RN.[/QUOTE]Statistics on REPORTED Corona-deaths in Sweden comapring with other countries is WORTHLESS.

It simply depends on that different countries identify real reasons to deaths in different ways.
Here, Belgium and Sweden are top countries since they identify the death reason - other countries (like France) do not.

The only way to calculate Corona-death are as follows:
Number of dead in April 2020 divided by average number of dead in April 2015-19.

Then you get how many percent died more than normal.
And this figure in Sweden is not higher 2020 than 1993, when there was a severe influence.
Comapring period February - May in Sweden 2020 with 2018, then only 1700 more dead people in 2020!
Almost all of them multi-dicesease and average age of 81!


Immunity is much higher than 7 % in Sweden and Stockholm. The Swedish Government has simply only poor test kit to identify antibodies.
At least 50 percent at my work place have had Corona - and it was like a cold for most of them.

Average age of "corona-identified" deaths is 81 years in Sweden.
Corona is only dangerous for ol people with underlying diseases.

Report from Stockholm.
And there is a real free life here.

And people do not die in the streets as some people at this forum seem to believe.


And only wait for the second wave. TSUNAMI in France and BREAZE in Sweden

[QUOTE=Arnold15;2453046]And people do not die in the streets as some poeple from France at this forum seem to believe.[/QUOTE]Only one please, most people in France don't live in their own reality.

I am not going to respond to anyone directly here and not aim any of the following assertions at anyone, it is just an illustration of some collected analysis from sources and not mere hearsay or anecdotal evidence.

This is a global forum where a lot of people are accustomed to travel and although not everyone here might have an elite education or be very articulate I am surprised at the nationalist chest thumping and to say it kindly the lack of a broad perspective when it comes to discussing the Covid19 pandemic. I was of two minds writing this, some of the responses I have read lack any intellectual rigor whatsoever and can not be construed of as rational arguments, but I have decided to respond nevertheless.

So why has Sweden become an issue of debate here, because it is the sole country in Europe that has advocated against an enforced lock down. So either Sweden knows something every other country in the Europe and wider world, with the exception of wonderfully rational politicians like Bolsanaro, does not know. Or it has chosen a questionable path that even its Nordic neighbors have rejected. The simple assertion that Sweden is right and everyone else is wrong is highly dubious, we will know at the very end of this but the evidence to date is not compelling.

- Arguments to dispute the assertions I have read on this forum.

1. We are not sacrificing our economy that also entails a cost, yes it does, but many countries have chosen this cost and not lightly, this represents a weak argument since in Sweden the economic cost of this pandemic is high anyhow, in fact it is in line with the contraction of the Eurozone and its Nordic neighbors, so if anyone was avoiding a lock down to defray the economic costs, this has not worked.

[URL]https://www.politico.eu/article/swedens-cant-escape-economic-hit-with-covid-19-light-touch/[/URL]

2. We are going to reach herd immunity faster and avoid a second wave, this is in fact possible, but to date there is no evidence for this. Arguments like half the people have had it and we can't measure it are not serious assertions to base policies on, I at one point thought I had had it in March, however you can not be sure and I won't take the risk to get it.

The study in Sweden we have says that Stockholm is far from herd immunity.

[URL]https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/21/just-7-per-cent-of-stockholm-had-covid-19-antibodies-by-end-of-april-study-sweden-coronavirus[/URL]

In fact the scientists that had predicted higher levels of herd immunity are surprised and said that their model has some seriously false assumptions behind it. Saying you know this is wrong isn't an argument to base serious policy on, it could be wrong and you could also win the lottery tomorrow.

3. The mortality rate is lower than other countries with a lock down. This is increasingly wrong with time.

I had said earlier that certain countries are in different phases of the pandemic, obviously Italy being ahead of the game, and without a lockdown the numbers would increase in Sweden. The fairest comparison would be with countries with similar population densities and climates, ie its Nordic neighbors, I don't think I have to quote any statistics here, they are all too obvious, but the mortality rate and rate of increasing cases in Sweden is many times higher than those countries, there is no doubt about it.

There are many factors as to why a country would have a higher Covid 19 mortality rate, higher population densities and high levels of vitamin D deficiency tend to be a factor. About the vitamin D deficiency, the Nordic countries do not have it but the Mediterranean countries, ie Spain and Italy do, this explains quite a bit.

First the argument was that Sweden had a lower mortality rate than many countries, ie the Netherlands (the most densely populated country in Europe), but now it has supassed the Netherlands and many other countries. The latest argument is that only 5 countries now surpass it. Yes some countries have down worse with a belated or late lock down.

Let us take the UK, this country has had an enormously disastrous and inefficient response to the pandemic, it a long with other countries, was late to respond, so nothing to be proud of here and furthermore England, just England, is even more densely populated than the Netherlands. Italy was first on the scene in Europe and represents a special case. Having a mortality rate lower than these examples is not a compelling argument to say that the national strategy in Sweden was correct. The best contrast would be with similar countries.

4. Only Sweden and Belgium count deaths accurately and in fact the mortality rate is lower than other countries that under count. I have read no evidence of the methodology in Sweden to support this, every country is under counting its deaths with the possible exception of Belgium. The reason is simple, Belgium attributes all non verified causes of death to Covid 19, so it is probably the only country that is over counting, as far as I know Sweden does not do this, does anyone have a credible source to counter this?

I am in fact disappointed that higher levels of immunity are not present and it would have been better for all of us in fact if this strategy was working, but there is not enough, or any, convincing statistical evidence to back this up yet. Therefore this blind sighted confidence in this unique policy is misplaced at present.

The only remaining argument I have heard is that the second wave will be far milder than other countries, that we will have to wait and see, however if it is not, than many people have died in vain. By the way, Herd Immunity was a strategy considered by quite a few European countries, notably the UK, and rejected due to the projected death toll.

[QUOTE=Arnold15;2453046]Statistics on REPORTED Corona-deaths in Sweden comapring with other countries is WORTHLESS.

It simply depends on that different countries identify real reasons to deaths in different ways.
Here, Belgium and Sweden are top countries since they identify the death reason - other countries (like France) do not.

The only way to calculate Corona-death are as follows:
Number of dead in April 2020 divided by average number of dead in April 2015-19.

Then you get how many percent died more than normal.[/QUOTE]In France, 90% deaths are older than 65 yo and 80% older than 75 yo, so a healthy, fit French under 60 yo, even better if a woman and smoker don t have much risk of big problem about virus, but can give big problem to beloved relatives. Since 11 May, our R0 didn't explode, I think we can judge at the end of the month after more than 15 days and even better on mid June after 30 days, to decide to open borders, but killer virus may not be so strong now when 30 Celsius degrees in Paris, many French want to feel sun on them, to go to swim in sea, to get better mood, to feel free. I would like to go to free ride to feel to fly like a free bird. But FKK land is a real playfield to spread with many old and fat, and when see what happen in South America entering in Winter with lower temperatures, let s wait for next November. Highest deaths rate in Stockholm than in Paris, but on NYC level, when Stockholm don t have same density for people than Paris nor NYC, Swedish made their choice, like NL, I would have made the same, even confined saved more than 60000 life, double than deaths in France, so on this confined point, our politics were right, but not about economic crisis with many unemployment.

Unfortunately, knowledge about statistcs in this forum is zero.
Continuing comparing apples with pies.
People refer to investigations about antibodies and Corona-deaths with no value at all.

Only statistics on "excess deaths" are valid. And the real conclusion will be known after the second wave.

If anyone really thinks that one can not become immune after Covid-19, then there will neither be any vaccine that works.

Comparing death rates in Sweden with neighboring countries at this moment is nonsense, since Sweden must have XX times more infected (and immune) than Norway, Denmark and Finland that have applied a total premature lock-down strategy.

People claim that "the Swedish strategy is dubious " and "Sweden makes an experiment by NOT locking down". (Sweden is not the only country, also Belarus).
But in reality, it is the opposite.
European countries that lock-down their economies undertake the biggest experiment in modern history.

Amazing that people don't know how similar pandemies have been handled in the past.
During the Asian and HongKong-influences in the 1950's and 1960's there was no lock down whatsoever.
And the economies recovered very fast after the pandemies.

This lock-down is something completely NEW and a real EXPERIMENT.
This time, it will take very long time for economies to recover, due to the stupid lock-down strategy.

No, Sweden does not know anything that other countries do not know. We simply do what is normal in such a situation.

Other European countries have swallowed the "fake news" from China that the whole population must be isolated to handle the pandemic.
Bull-shit.
When most Euroopean countries locked down their economies, the risk groups of Covid-19 were already identified and known world-wide: Old people with underlying diseases.
Most countries decided to isolate their young populations anyway! Not a very clever strategy.

Yes, Sweden did two BIG MISTAKES:
1. Older people in retirement homes were NOT isolated (Instead secondary schools and universities were closed!) Elderly people at these homes continued to meet 10-20 different assistants per week. This is death group No. 1 in Sweden.
2. Older people in immigrant areas were not informed about Covid-19, because they do not understand Swedish. (Reflecting the disastrous Swedish immigration and integration policies). This is death group No. 2 in Sweden.

[QUOTE=TheCane;2452823]Please remove "me" from that "we". I may be crazy, but I'm not stupid! As another poster on this site noted, why doesn't he go ahead and double his dosage of the chloroquine? After all. What's he got to lose? Ha![/QUOTE]I'm not American and unfortunately in France we don't have often a president who learned arithmetic for economy at school, but Trump and Bolzonaro are same crazy with same results. I may not be clever enough or maybe my social side, but compare to Obama, just Niagara falls, from my point of view, when Trump is same ready for anything than WGs. Maybe more dangerous than Putin. Can t understand telling about pride when just behaving ridiculous. For sure, not a good image for US in Western Europe, maybe for Japan about China. I also don't understand about still free weapons when no more Navajos with arrows, and crazy shooting every day people, most often Black, like Brunswick Georgia. When no more far west.

What works for Sweden would not necessarily work for other countries. One, Sweden only has three cities with a population of over 300 K. Two, Sweden is a rich country and with low levels of inequality, in terms of money and access to medical care. This does not hold true for countries like Brazil. The population of Sao Paulo (12 million urban, 21 million metro) is larger than the entire country of Sweden (10 million). Poor people in Brazil do not have the option to social distance nor do they have the savings to sit at and home and reduce their exposure. In earlier forecasts, the Swedish authorities predicted 33 percent immunity by early May, but that figure currently sits at 7 percent in Stockholm. This suggests that Swedish have been fairly good at practicing social distancing, despite there being no "official lockdown".

[QUOTE]Sweden's approach has been unique in that most people exhibit a sense of trust and duty toward their fellow gym-goers. He said that Sweden has a culture of being more conscientious about following the rules, a phenomenon Business Insider previously reported on.

"I don't think that Swedish gyms have had a radical approach to this situation, it's just that people are a bit more mindful and careful," he said. "It mostly comes down to gym-goers feeling that sense of social responsibility."

https://www.insider.com/what-its-like-gyms-in-sweden-where-lockdowns-never-happened-2020-5
[/QUOTE][QUOTE]Brazil's death toll meanwhile surged past 20,000 Thursday.

A closer look at the data raises questions about the widely held idea that COVID-19 is mainly dangerous for the elderly.

Of Brazil's victims, 69 percent were aged 60 or older, compared with 95 percent in Spain and Italy, according to official statistics.

The disparity is partly driven by the age of the overall populace: Just 13.6 percent of Brazil's population is 60 or older, compared to 25 percent in Spain and 28 percent in Italy.

https://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2020/05/22/in-brazil-covid-19-hitting-young-people-harder.html
[/QUOTE]

[QUOTE=Arnold15;2453070]Unfortunately, knowledge about statistcs in this forum is zero.
Continuing comparing apples with pies.
People refer to investigations about antibodies and Corona-deaths with no value at all.

Only statistics on "excess deaths" are valid. And the real conclusion will be known after the second wave.[/QUOTE]Excess deaths can only be observed after the virus has disappeared, not after a 'second wave, which nobody wants to happen. It is still relevant to compare deaths with covid-infected patients under an epidemiological and medical point of view.

[QUOTE=Arnold15;2453070]If anyone really thinks that one can not become immune after Covid-19, then there will neither be any vaccine that works.[/QUOTE]Virus may become attenuated (I. E. Weaker) like Spanish flu and remain in the population without the need of a vaccine. It may also disappear like with Sars. There are many ways in which a pandemic can end, not only through a vaccine, which remains the best and quickest way though!

[QUOTE=Arnold15;2453070]People claim that "the Swedish strategy is dubious " and "Sweden makes an experiment by NOT locking down". (Sweden is not the only country, also Belarus)[/QUOTE]Let me understand here, you want to take Belarus as a credible example in support of the Swedish approach to the pandemic. Belarus? A country, whose president said he doesn't believe in the pandemic because, and I quote, 'he does not see Covid fly in the air'? Really Arnold?

In addition, the vulnerable groups are NOT only elderly people with underlying conditions, but also all other people with respiratory diseases (including Asthma, COPD, CF etc.) all those recovering from cancer treatment, people of all ages with cardiovascular and kidney conditions and I stopped here because the list would be too long. There was absolutely no way of knowing the most vulnerable groups at the beginning of the pandemic because it was a brand new virus and, even now, we still do not fully understand how it works. DO NOT SPREAD FAKE NEWS and listen to the experts.

Sweden have chosen to avoid the lockdown and they now have almost 4000 deaths (or 389 every 1 M people) after having done 20,000 tests every 1 M people. Other countries with similar population size like Czechia, which closed down very early in the epidemic, they have 29 deaths every 1 M people) after having done 36,000 tests every 1 M people.

Sweden has taken a gamble and now they are counting corpses.

I'm amazed that people can write about strategies against the Coronavirus without even mentioning the economy!

If the only single goal was to lower the number of deaths caused by see-19 all countries would still be in quarantine!

What Bolsonaro understands is that a lockdown would completely butcher the Brazilian economy! He's afraid of the consequences of a lockdown! He is looking one step further, being smarter, than people screaming in fear because of a virus. I'm extremely disappointed by the other political leaders. It will be rough for us in Nothern Europe, rougher for those in the South and a catastrophe for Brazil. 40 million unemployed in the US, but let's act as if there will be no consequences.

I've been reading comments that without a lockdown everyone will die or half of all people will die. Today we can easily dismiss those claims as scaremongering.

So how many would die? I don't know. No one knows. In Sweden we have 59 deaths among people under 50 years, is that much? I don't think so considering the consequences of a lockdown. This virus is killing the people that pretty much could die from anything.

I would love to blast our government for their incompetence, because they truly are incompetent, but no lockdown was a great and courageous decision to take. It's got nothing to do with nationalism, it was simply the right thing to do in my opinion.

In other countries people have too much of a sunk cost to admit or even entertain the thought that they might have been better off without a lockdown. That in combination with populistic politicians, the media and scared / dumb people lead to the acceptance of a lockdown.

As said, it's not about nationalism.

[QUOTE=Arnold15;2453070]Unfortunately, knowledge about statistcs in this forum is zero.
.[/QUOTE]With that post and all the wrongs in it you include yourself in your own statement.

[QUOTE=McGrath;2453093]With that post and all the wrongs in it you include yourself in your own statement.[/QUOTE]Exactly what I was thinking and more, including a lack of knowledge regarding both medical science and history. But, enough said already.

[QUOTE=McGrath;2453093]With that post and all the wrongs in it you include yourself in your own statement.[/QUOTE]
It is nothing wrong in that post.
I live in Stockholm and follow what happens here every day.

But people in this forum who DO NOT LIVE in Stockholm and who do not know what is going on here, seem to know more about Sweden than Swedish inhabitants.
Systematically referring to super-biased statistics.

And they do not know how to calculate "excess deaths".
And definitely do not understand what "the second wave" means.

Especially, they do not know what kind of mistakes the Swedish government did.
1. Not isolating people at retirement homes and 2. Not informing immigrant groups.

[QUOTE=Arnold15;2453099]It is nothing wrong in that post.
I live in Stockholm and follow what happens here every day.

But people in this forum who DO NOT LIVE in Stockholm and who do not know what is going on here, seem to know more about Sweden than Swedish inhabitants.
Systematically referring to super-biased statistics.

And they do not know how to calculate "excess deaths".
And definitely do not understand what "the second wave" means.

Especially, they do not know what kind of mistakes the Swedish government did.
1. Not isolating people at retirement homes and 2. Not informing immigrant groups.[/QUOTE]About one point, I would differ, I do know a lot about Stockholm, since I had lived there for over 3 years, but this was a long time ago. Your response is quite measured and temperate, however the arguments I have heard from others are really not rationale and are based upon certain tenets of faith. Well I am familiar with this blind faith and confidence which is inspired by nationalist feelings.

I would just gently say this, about comparing to neighboring countries with similar climates and population densities (Denmark's is a lot higher though) you can see what the differing mortality rates from a severe vs a very relaxed lock down could be, really the fairest test would be the exact same environment, but this is obviously not possible.

The level of immunity should be higher in societies which have a more relaxed or no lock down, however it seems that in every systematic test in every place these numbers are far lower than the proponents of herd immunity have advocated. Some studies say it is up to 20% in New York, that could only be the case given its very high urban density, it would be far lower in LOS Angeles (I know both cities quite well) given the lock down in both places, I these the North American lock downs are far less strict than the European ones.

I would expect Sweden to have more people who are immune, but thus far these numbers as verified by studies are still far too low and the prediction of herd immunity by June or August is premature.

The assertion that these tests are flawed and many more people are surely immune is unfortunately just a matter of faith in the absence of hard evidence.

[QUOTE=DeltaIndigo;2453106] the North American lock downs are far less strict than the European ones.

I would expect Sweden to have more people who are immune, but thus far these numbers as verified by studies are still far too low and the prediction of herd immunity by June or August is premature..[/QUOTE]History will tell as it always does, and the winners usually get to write the story. Lockdown or no lockdown is the question and the answer is simple. The lockdown slowed the virus spread, allowing governments, hospitals and medical providers to become more prepared. This came at great expense and is delaying the spread of the virus. Not locking down let's the virus spread and in vulnerable sections of society the cost of life is higher. The reall story will arrive if / when a safe vaccination is available. If this happens this summer, then lockdown proponents will celebrate their success in saving millions of lives. If the cavaccine doesn't arrive for another 10 years the chapter will already have been written and many countries around the world will have suffered great economic loss. Of course, the antivacs groups will stand in protest, saying the government is poisoning their children.

First of all, everything about economics is wrong in that post. Sweden doesn't gain any GDP towards other countries because they are a little more open for a few months. I first came to Frankfurt because of the banks were there so I know some things about this.

Sweden is a small open economy with a floating currency, in the long view, how the rest of the world goes Sweden will go.

And the notion that Sweden is the only country that can count dead people the right way is ridicoulus.