Pakistan is irrelevant, India is self-absorbed, and China is a mess.
[QUOTE=PedroMorales;2692458]What is going on is the world is changing. Pakistan has seen its biggest ever protests against the recent US coup where over 70% of the Cabinet are on bail on corruption charges. The future is a fatwa against Americans, all Americans, scalping and so on, low tech as well as Hi tech, al of which the Pentagon thinks they have planned for.
You mention China and India like they were tiny places. The Great Satan aka USA is now interested in human rights in India (not Saudi) because of Russia. The answer is an all out fatwa on America and Americans. Fat, lazy, stupid and they even defecate in bed, something a dog would not do.[/QUOTE]You mention these three countries as though they were bastions of strength, when the opposite is true. Pakistan, India, and China are constantly jockeying for position against each other but those regional struggles are largely irrelevant to the rest of the world. The more they fight, undercut, and devour each other, the less they can make mischief for anyone else.
As far as China is concerned, their zero-covid strategy has backfired in a major way and, having already locked down Shanghai, they're now on the cusp of locking down Beijing. Their biggest problem will be keeping the population employed and fed, which means they'll need to be keenly inwardly focused. And one important point about China's current travails is that it makes them even more dependent on the West. That means their "partnership" with Russia is likely to be more talk than action.
So, in contrast to your delusional fantasies about how the world is changing, all the facts and evidence show that America and the West are in the ascendancy; China, India, and Pakistan are stuck in the mud; and Russia is in a death-spiral. As far as your wet-dream of a fatwa against Americans is concerned, the mouse may proclaim a fatwa against the eagle, to which the eagle responds by calmly and confidently sharpening its talons.
BTW, as far as the actions of any particular individual is concerned, I really couldn't give two shits (in your bed). After all, I don't judge all Russians by Putin's bizarre habit of bathing in deer antler blood (something even a dog would shun).
Could we see a wave of Russian soldiers leaving the armed forces prior to May 9th?
[URL]https://www.reddit.com/r/UkrainianConflict/comments/uii5cd/as_the_martial_law_algorithm_was_not_activated/[/URL]
[URL]https://mobile.twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1521854118842753025?t=ez22YMgmKdaFm7RBjx6cLQ&s=09[/URL]
Definitely something to watch over the next week since many are talking about the likelihood of a formal declaration of war by Russia on that date. If a significant number of soldiers, sailors, and airmen, exercise their option to leave, it'll be interesting to see how the Kremlin responds. From all accounts, morale among Russian troops in Ukraine is pretty low. Even if this information isn't allowed to be publicly discussed, I'm sure it gets around via the grapevine that runs throughout most military forces.
If Russia declares war and invokes a full mobilization of national resources, there will be many, like our resident pro-Russia shills, who will stress only the (potential) positives while ignoring the (very likely) negatives. Interesting times!
Watching the waves instead of the tide
[QUOTE=WyattEarp;2692851]China is on the precipice of a economic crash or a long, cyclical stagnation. All of the years of overinvestment in real estate and infrastructure is catching up with them. The Xi government is kicking the can down the road until after he is given another five year term this year. Instead of stepping down after ten years, Xi wants to be Emperor for Life. Expect the small cracks to turn into big cracks after the re-coronation.
The China cheerleaders on social media say that the Chinese government is so smart and so firmly in control that they can navigate around a deep recession and just keep growing. It's never been done in the history of global economics. Economic cycles are not something that are only prone for Western economies. Even the Soviet Union suffered from economic cycles.
The fear is that years and years of hitting the economic accelerator at every sign of weakness had set the tables for a big crash or a long stagnation similar to Japan after its economic boom.
I believe China with its large economy will find a way to keep everyone fed, but the economic strain will test the CCP's hold on the people.[/QUOTE]Both Russia and China, viewed in a long-term and macro sense, are trending in a negative direction. Both face huge demographic headwinds from declining birthrates that are unlikely to be alleviated by immigration, or other means, for years to come (if ever). China's problem is worse because of the "one child" policy that wasn't changed until much too late. Russia's problem was less acute but now has been worsened because Russia is unlikely to be attractive to immigrants as long as their economy suffers under sanctions or reparations. But Russia, with a smaller population, has less of a built-in buffer, and so may feel the effects sooner than China. Add to that the brain drain, and exodus of younger Russians, and the Kremlin is facing a major societal challenge.
Besides the demographic issues, both economies are full of smoke and mirrors and are opaque to any attempt to realistically analyze them. For example, even though Hong Kong has now been pretty much fully assimilated by China, its economic and financial reporting systems are still a product of pre-assimilation times. HK reported a 4% decrease in GDP in Q1 2022 due to COVID lockdowns. China, however, reported a 4. 8% increase over the same period, even though their COVID lockdowns have arguably been more severe and disruptive. No matter how bad things get, China will never report a negative GDP number. That would go against their "CCP brings prosperity" narrative and would pop Comrade Xi's bubble of competent leadership. Speaking of bubbles popping, the one most likely to go soon is the Ponzi scheme that is the China property market. All of China's recent moves have been to engineer a slow deflation and soft landing. I highly doubt that will happen, so Xi will do everything to kick the can down the road until he's elected to an unprecedented 3rd term. At that point, he'll become the new Mao and will try to consolidate his hold on power and become President for life. Whether that works, or for how long it works, will be interesting to watch. China is still China, but it's not Mao's China anymore.
The bottom-line is that both China and Russia will keep doing the same dysfunctional things that got them into their current predicaments. And that's why I laugh whenever I hear someone touting their partnership! Yeah, sure, they're partners in the same way one drowning person grabs onto another to keep themselves afloat. Unless one of them is a super-strong swimmer and experienced lifeguard, they're more likely to pull each other under.
And, guess what, neither Russia nor China is a super-strong, experienced lifeguard.
Economic problems in the US, EU, and beyond
[QUOTE=WyattEarp;2693560]Comrade Jmsuttr (wink), I suspect your post will generate the typical response that the United States economy and dollar are a house of cards. This even though you and I have presented the well-established academic view that having a reserve currency is a burden.
The real estate market in the United States is in a mini-bubble, but this is mostly driven by supply shortages. First, we weren't building enough houses after the 2008-2009 crash. Second, COVID slowed down real estate construction and materials. Outside a few small, desirable areas where foreigners flock, we don't have empty condo buildings. There is far less speculation than what we experienced in the 2000's.[/QUOTE]I completely agree that the US isn't free of problems, and neither is the EU. But one big difference is the existence of a sizeable private sector with the incentive to find a way to profit from imbalances and govt mistakes. It may take a recession, or even a depression, but the errors and problems will eventually wash themselves out of the system. Also, most Western countries tend to wash out the politicians they hold responsible for the mismanagement. And one other relevant point is that in the EU and US we don't make a habit of putting such private investors in jail, as long as they keep their activities legal and above-board.
Until the invasion happened, I would have included Russia in the list of generally investable markets. Even though the problem of corruption and kleptocracy existed, many corporations and investors had figured out how to navigate those waters. But Putin changed everything and now the Russian economy has zero upside and nearly unlimited downside. Here's a current assessment from Al-Jazeera:
[URL]https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2022/5/5/the-kremlin-blinks-first-in-the-geo-economic-war-over-ukraine[/URL]
China, however, has systemic problems that stem from the CCP's need to maintain a narrative that supports Xi's "Mandate of Heaven" irrespective of real economic conditions. And that's reflected in their need to control everything, from capital flows to property sales to stock market levels. But central control is a practical impossibility in an environment where a near-infinite number of variables means that unintended consequences will almost certainly occur. In a world experiencing generally positive growth a lot of those problems never break above the surface. But, like a Ponzi scheme that runs out of new money, at some point the chickens come home to roost. It's hard to know exactly where China's stall-speed point is, since everything is so opaque and they have many ways to keep bad news under wraps. It's my sense that, like the proverbial Minsky Moment, it'll be something that seems relatively small that'll trigger the next crisis.
Oh yes, and all the "whataboutism" finger-pointing at the US won't change a thing about the negative direction, and likely hard landing, of the Russian and Chinese economies.
Russians leaving in droves before May 9th
[URL]https://www.reddit.com/r/UkrainianConflict/comments/ukca7a/fear_of_mobilization_russians_are_leaving_the/[/URL]
Why? Because Putin is killing Russia's present, just like he's already killed Russia's future.
Russia = the New Venezuela
[URL]https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2022/3/4/russias-looming-economic-crisis-will-be-worse-than-1991[/URL]
Q: How does a country that is rich in natural resources, and had a high level of positive potential, turn itself into an economic disaster?
A: Flawed culture + faulty leadership.
P.S. The article also makes some good points as to why countries like India and China, no matter what kind of "help" they may offer, won't be enough to save Russia from its self-destructive path.
Russia is not the new Venezuela
[QUOTE=Jmsuttr;2697795][URL]https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2022/3/4/russias-looming-economic-crisis-will-be-worse-than-1991[/URL][/QUOTE]The problem with this article is it's already 2-month old. Russia has proved that it's capable of weathering the storm for the time being.
For as long as Europe is buying, Russia will be OK. Not fine, but OK. They're getting a billion per day, that's enough to keep them going. Now with time, as Europe is buying less and less, things will get tougher, but that can take up to a couple of years.
[QUOTE=Jmsuttr;2697795]
Q: How does a country that is rich in natural resources, and had a high level of positive potential, turn itself into an economic disaster?
A: Flawed culture + faulty leadership..[/QUOTE]Flawed culture. Yes, with faulty leadership being inevitable effect. All leaders are faulty, but in a democracy they don't usually rule too long (with some exceptions, which are balanced by longstanding democratic traditions). But in the Russian tradition, you can take the best of them and watch them desperately try to stick to power no matter what, descending and degrading into madness and absolutism, unless they're murdered along the way.
Nothing will ever change in Russia unless there is a bulletproof Constitutional and enforcement mechanism prescribing and detailing democratic rotation of power.
If Putin left in 2008, as he was supposed to according to the Constitution, he would've been remembered as one of the greatest leaders ever. He wouldn't have deserved it, but that's another story.
An analogy doesn't need to be exact, or perfect, to be instructive.
[QUOTE=Xpartan;2698268]The problem with this article is it's already 2-month old. Russia has proved that it's capable of weathering the storm for the time being.
For as long as Europe is buying, Russia will be OK. Not fine, but OK. They're getting a billion per day, that's enough to keep them going. Now with time, as Europe is buying less and less, things will get tougher, but that can take up to a couple of years.
Flawed culture. Yes, with faulty leadership being inevitable effect. All leaders are faulty, but in a democracy they don't usually rule too long (with some exceptions, which are balanced by longstanding democratic traditions). But in the Russian tradition, you can take the best of them and watch them desperately try to stick to power no matter what, descending and degrading into madness and absolutism, unless they're murdered along the way.
Nothing will ever change in Russia unless there is a bulletproof Constitutional and enforcement mechanism prescribing and detailing democratic rotation of power.
If Putin left in 2008, as he was supposed to according to the Constitution, he would've been remembered as one of the greatest leaders ever. He wouldn't have deserved it, but that's another story.[/QUOTE]Obviously Russia is bigger, with more resources in reserve, and is dealing with a sanctions regime that is recent and still evolving. Oh yes, and they have nukes. But those differences, and I'm sure more could be named, don't negate the usefulness of the analogy.
Venezuela and Russia are both resource-rich countries, yet both depend heavily on foreign companies to provide the technology and expertise to extract those resources. Those essential companies have, due to sanctions and other reasons, mostly abandoned Venezuela, and the same is happening to Russia. From everything I've read, Venezuela's energy industry is limping along. And they don't have to deal with issues like Siberian winters. So the usefulness of the analogy is that it highlights areas to watch, like whether Russia's oil and gas industries will suffer similar difficulties and declines.
Also, Venezuela continues to sell oil but is constrained by sanctions and is in a weakened bargaining position when buyers like China and India demand discounts. And, whatever funds they get for their oil can only be used to purchase non-sanctioned goods and services. Obviously there's a constant dance to evade the sanctions, but the fact that Venezuela is an economic basket-case is pretty good evidence that the years of isolation have taken their toll.
Has Russia fully arrived at a Venezuela-like state yet? Of course not, and my earlier post wasn't intended to imply or argue that they have, only that their paths and trajectories are similar. Russia is only at the early stages of the process that Venezuela has been burdened with for years and, being bigger and richer to begin with, has more "fat" to burn through before needing to consume muscle and bone. But, with a brain-drain of their brightest and best, and no replenishment from outside, they are truly eating their own seed corn.
About Europe buying Russian oil and gas, that's certainly the near-term scenario but, now that everyone understands what it means to be at the mercy of Russia's "weaponized" energy policy, every European country is looking for alternate supply wherever they can find it. Italy's recent deals with Azerbaijan and Algeria are examples of this. So, while the wheels may turn slowly in some circles, they're still all turning in a direction that's not favorable to Russia and will result in further isolation.
And yes, Russia gets billions for its oil and gas. That sounds great but, because of sanctions they're limited as to what they can do with that money. They can't buy needed semiconductors, as just one example, and I recently read that they're having to cannibalize washing machines to repurpose some of the chips for military use. That certainly doesn't sound like an efficient or sustainable practice. Maybe they should get help from Cuban mechanics. After all, in Havana they've figured out how to keep cars from the 40's and 50's on the road.
How a country declines, by virtue of its own flaws + external sanctions and pressures + faulty leadership, is a process rather than an event. In terms of the progress of that process, two months is nothing. What's relevant is the trajectory, and Russia is clearly trending in a downward, Venezuela-like, direction. With every passing day I see more negative straws piling on the back of the camel and I see nothing on the horizon to suggest any relief or change in the landscape.
Flawed Cultuire v No Culture
Russia has a deep and wide culture. The USA has none, nada.
Venezuela's problems are exasperated by the USA stealing (freezing etc) its financial and other resources.
The rouble is strong, the German economy is in the toilet, all for obeying the USA and its puppets.
[QUOTE=Xpartan;2698268] American bullshit bla bla, some points responded to for any non American who has a brain [/QUOTE]