Paranoia strikes deep, into your life it will creep...
omg--i never thought of it that way! what'll we do? what'll we do???
relax gt, the crimea is not the beginning of russian expansion, it is the end.
[quote]by "never" i did not mean never in history, but there was no current threat to russian security.[/quote]
from your perspective, it may seem as if here was no threat, but for putin, there was a very real threat to russian security. russia is essentially a land-locked country, the only warm water port they have is savastopol. yanokovich was putin's man, he was hand-picked by putin to be the president of the ukraine. as long as yanokovich was in control of the ukraine, putin could be sure that the crimea would be within his control. but when yanokovich was kicked out, everything changed. putin could not allow savastopol and the crimea to fall into the hands of the west.
putin will go no further than the crimea, partly because he understands that russia will have its hands full digesting its conquest, but mainly because he understands that if he does, everything will be up for grabs and he could lose the very thing he values most: the crimea.
[quote]europe couldn't really afford to bail itself out (greece, spain, et al) and cannot really afford to prop up a wounded ukraine, but they and a heavily mortgaged us will have to anyway.[/quote]
it's true, the ukraine is a mess. europe can't afford to take on all the responsibility of bailing them out. it's different for the u.s., if we need more money, we can just print it. but money is the least of the worries, the ukraine is so divided right now, it seems to be almost ungovernable and it's the average person who will suffer the most.
[quote]russia will end up confirep001ing or otherwise stealing western corporate investment.[/quote]
putin is not stupid, and he is not a hot-head. he understands the interdepencies of the modern day world. if he nationalizes foreign assets in russia, that will be the end of foreign investment. putin wants to present russia to the world as a modern nation, that's what sochi was all about. he does not want to take it back 40 years into the cold war.
so far, the sanctions have been very high level and very limited. i don't think john boehner gives a toot if he ever gets to visit russia and i doubt if john mccaen has millions of dollars invested in moscow real estate. there will be a lot of tit-for-tat, and then everyone will settle into some kind of workable solution.
so, buck up gt, all is not lost. you may not find as many russian women looking to hook up with western men as you had hoped, but there should be plenty of ukrainian ones. and if you look on the bright side, your russian visa will now get you into the crimea! :)
Stravinsky's Write of Spring?
[QUOTE=Jake993;1547709]Good analysis Strav. Nicely thought out and presented. Thanks for your opinion.[/QUOTE]Yes, that's exactly what I was thinking.
I've been reading reams of material on this subject for weeks now and Strav's concise analysis is one of the best summaries I've come across.
Those of us with an understanding of the Russian mindset and observing this part of the world from week to week, over a period of years - rather than just reacting to events, forming an opinion and then moving on to the next act of the global political circus - will not have been too surprised by Putin's annexation of Crimea.
Like Strav, I believe this is a 'stand-alone' intrusion but I would qualify it by saying that Putin will give the West or any other potential protagonists as much war as they want in this part of the world, or 'near abroad' as he terms it. Russian nationalism is an atavistic impulse and not one mediated by the financial effect on their collective pocket.
On the subject of the all-important White God Factor (sorry Vladimir Vladimirovich, not you this time!), I'd venture to say it is still alive to some degree in rural and provincial Ukraine.
Unlike Russians, a huge amount of young Ukrainians while loving their country (they're still Slavs!) recognise that it is a 'failed state' and know they may need to seek a secure future elsewhere.
This constitutes a certain part of the movement at Maiden last winter as youngsters want to have the freedom to migrate and are not necessarily thinking of EU membership miraculously elevating Ukraine to western levels of prosperity. They just want the freedom to get out.
Which would be fine for them but no good for Europe as Ukraine as a commercial entity is unsalvageable, in my opinion.
Anyway, it looks like I may soon have the opportunity to research my theories first-hand as a return to the +3 hours time zone beckons! :)