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[QUOTE=Paulie97;2474757]NY has no more reached "herd immunity" than Georgia is "doing fine. ".
[URL]https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/30/roughly-25percent-of-new-york-city-has-probably-been-infected-with-coronavirus-dr-scott-gottlieb-says.html[/URL]
Oh how easy it is to lie in a monger forum. The supply of such is inexhaustible.[/QUOTE]Yeah, I've noticed that you like to lie.
The low number of deaths in NY is a result of herd immunity. There's no coincidence that the regions and cities with the highest death toll experiences the same pattern, and that's regardless of their strategy. San Marino haven't reported a COVID-19 related death since the 23 d of May. It's called herd immunity, but I'm sure that you're extremely impressed by San Marino and their fight against Corona.
[URL]https://www.google.se/amp/s/www.wsj.com/amp/articles/herd-immunity-may-be-closer-than-you-think-11594076237[/URL]
[URL]https://www.google.se/amp/s/www.news-medical.net/amp/news/20200731/Research-suggests-New-York-City-may-have-reached-coronavirus-herd-immunity-threshold.aspx[/URL]
Waiting for a effective vaccine (which may most likely never come) is not an option. When will you wake up and smell the coffee?
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[QUOTE=ShooBree;2474853]She doesn't seem to be especially competent, much more competent and higher ranked epidemiologist predicts a lower death toll. Her guess isn't especially likely to occur.
750 thousand isn't that much in a country with a population of over 300 million. Vulnerable groups can easily self-quarantine, those that are most likely to die are those that can't take care of themselves and would probably die soon anyways. There's not much dignity left in life for those that lives in the hospital or can't take a shower or get dressed by themselves. Survival of the fittest.[/QUOTE]If "survival of the fittest" requires critical thinking skills, you might want to start making funeral arrangements.
750 thousand isn't that much? I think most people would disagree. About 3000 people died in the US from the 9/11 attacks and the US has spent about $7 trillion in response. 4 people died in the Benghazi attack and the US spent $7 million investigating. With covid we're barely 20% of the way there and everyone is already screaming about the cost.
Of course we still have no evidence herd immunity is a possibility with this virus, so sacrificing several million people around the world for an unknown result seems like a bad idea.
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[QUOTE=ShooBree;2474861]Yeah, I've noticed that you like to lie.
The low number of deaths in NY is a result of herd immunity. There's no coincidence that the regions and cities with the highest death toll experiences the same pattern, and that's regardless of their strategy. San Marino haven't reported a COVID-19 related death since the 23 d of May. It's called herd immunity, but I'm sure that you're extremely impressed by San Marino and their fight against Corona.
[URL]https://www.google.se/amp/s/www.wsj.com/amp/articles/herd-immunity-may-be-closer-than-you-think-11594076237[/URL]
[URL]https://www.google.se/amp/s/www.news-medical.net/amp/news/20200731/Research-suggests-New-York-City-may-have-reached-coronavirus-herd-immunity-threshold.aspx[/URL]
Waiting for a effective vaccine (which may most likely never come) is not an option. When will you wake up and smell the coffee?[/QUOTE]BS. Piled higher and deeper. I'm sure you've found websites. Good for you. Show me herd immunity for the other common Coronovirus, the common cold. There is herd immunity to some things because of vaccines. Other than that I know of no other example in humans. If it even could happen with this virus, we've got a long long ways to go.
Places change their strategies, as New York has done. And by keeping people apart you certainly can stop this virus.
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[QUOTE=Zeos1;2474992]BS. Piled higher and deeper. I'm sure you've found websites. Good for you. Show me herd immunity for the other common Coronovirus, the common cold. There is herd immunity to some things because of vaccines. Other than that I know of no other example in humans. If it even could happen with this virus, we've got a long long ways to go.
Places change their strategies, as New York has done. And by keeping people apart you certainly can stop this virus.[/QUOTE]I had to look up to see how San Marino dealt with the virus. Strangely enough couldn't find one mention of "herd immunity. " However, with only around 700 cases with a population of 33,000, even if the threshold is 20%, which only an idiot would believe, they're still about 18% short. Although if we assume the disease can only be transmitted while having sex with a yodeling nun who has no teeth and a giant wart on her nose, while juggling 6 live cobras, underwater, then 2% is probably enough for herd immunity.
[URL]https://www.euronews.com/2020/04/25/can-san-marino-s-aggressive-covid-19-testing-strategy-save-europe[/URL]
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[QUOTE=JjBee62;2474985]If "survival of the fittest" requires critical thinking skills, you might want to start making funeral arrangements.
750 thousand isn't that much? I think most people would disagree. About 3000 people died in the US from the 9/11 attacks and the US has spent about $7 trillion in response. 4 people died in the Benghazi attack and the US spent $7 million investigating. With covid we're barely 20% of the way there and everyone is already screaming about the cost.
Of course we still have no evidence herd immunity is a possibility with this virus, so sacrificing several million people around the world for an unknown result seems like a bad idea.[/QUOTE]Look at that, the pot calling the kettle black.
3 millions dies every year in the US, the Coronavirus might in the worst case scenario take 660'000 lives in the US. Put in perspective it's not that much. Over 30 million lost their jobs because of the lockdowns, that is much! For each corona related death over a hundred lost their jobs. That's extreme. Furthermore, the ones dying aren't the ones with bright futures ahead. It's the ones with no future, it's the weak and old that have lived their lives and are now getting ready for their final rest. Normal people that can take care of themselves can self-quarantine without any problems.
Sacrificing the economy and the future of a generation is unacceptable. The experiment with lockdowns needs to end. We have no successful vaccine on the horizon and we can't keep locking up healthy people that have nothing to fear from the pathetic virus that can only kill the weakest.
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[QUOTE=Zeos1;2474992]BS. Piled higher and deeper. I'm sure you've found websites. Good for you. Show me herd immunity for the other common Coronovirus, the common cold. There is herd immunity to some things because of vaccines. Other than that I know of no other example in humans. If it even could happen with this virus, we've got a long long ways to go.
Places change their strategies, as New York has done. And by keeping people apart you certainly can stop this virus.[/QUOTE]Where's your evidence of it not being herd immunity?
NY is seeing the effects of herd immunity, Sweden didn't change their strategy yet they are seeing a sharp decrease in number of Corona related deaths. There are no real evidence against that.
Well, if we are going to compare it to the common cold the only way forward is to simply live with it. The low mortality rate most certainly enable us to live life as normal.
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[QUOTE=JjBee62;2475012]I had to look up to see how San Marino dealt with the virus. Strangely enough couldn't find one mention of "herd immunity. " However, with only around 700 cases with a population of 33,000, even if the threshold is 20%, which only an idiot would believe, they're still about 18% short. Although if we assume the disease can only be transmitted while having sex with a yodeling nun who has no teeth and a giant wart on her nose, while juggling 6 live cobras, underwater, then 2% is probably enough for herd immunity.
[URL]https://www.euronews.com/2020/04/25/can-san-marino-s-aggressive-covid-19-testing-strategy-save-europe[/URL][/QUOTE]I would be really embarrassed if I thought that San Marino didn't have any unreported cases of corona, especially considering that it's the country worst affected of the virus in the world. Only a complete moron would even if entertain that thought.
I for one would love to hear how come San Marino was so unlucky to have a death rate twice the one of the US. USA, the country known for their serious health problems among the population. It's so weird that the experts are talking about a mortality rate in the range of 0.2-1.0%, but in San Marino they have a mortality rate of over 6%. That blows my mind.
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[QUOTE=ShooBree;2475037]Look at that, the pot calling the kettle black.
3 millions dies every year in the US, the Coronavirus might in the worst case scenario take 660'000 lives in the US. Put in perspective it's not that much. Over 30 million lost their jobs because of the lockdowns, that is much! For each corona related death over a hundred lost their jobs. That's extreme. Furthermore, the ones dying aren't the ones with bright futures ahead. It's the ones with no future, it's the weak and old that have lived their lives and are now getting ready for their final rest. Normal people that can take care of themselves can self-quarantine without any problems.
Sacrificing the economy and the future of a generation is unacceptable. The experiment with lockdowns needs to end. We have no successful vaccine on the horizon and we can't keep locking up healthy people that have nothing to fear from the pathetic virus that can only kill the weakest.[/QUOTE]Why can't any of you stupid fucks do basic math? Seriously? I sort of understand it from the US, because the country has been embracing ignorance as a virtue for decades, but I thought Europe was better.
Using your numbers, because I don't want to put any extra strain on the 9 pissants you're using in lieu of a brain, 660,000 additional deaths would be an increase in the annual number of deaths of more than 20%. Put in perspective, that's a huge fucking jump. Even the 200,000 which currently looks unavoidable for the US represents a 7% increase in number of deaths.
Another question. Why can't any of you stupid fucks understand that nobody is "sacrificing the economy?" During a global pandemic, especially one of this magnitude, the economy is going to suffer. Whether you do nothing, or you take extreme measures, the economy is going to take a hit. The question is:
Is it better to put the economy on pause for 12 weeks, while you get a handle on the spread of disease, or is it better to let the disease run it's course and let the economy suffer indefinitely?
My belief is that a 12 week shutdown, followed by an extended period of mandated mask usage, represents a manageable, and more importantly predictable, retraction of the economy. Look at any of the countries which successfully followed this route and it appears to have worked. I'm not hearing about a generation of South Koreans having their future sacrificed. I'm not reading about the economic devastation in New Zealand and Taiwan. Nobody is reporting on the collapse of civilization in Germany.
On the other hand, the problems and hits to the economy continue in the US, after reopening too soon. Unemployment is still very high, productivity is down, many industries are struggling. There's currently no sunny day on the horizon for the US, economically.
Now, for all those people who you consider useless and with no future, I disagree. You're stating that anyone 65 or older, or anyone with a long list of high risk factors is better off dead. If that's your belief, what have you done in the past to make this a matter of public policy? Have you advocated that no person 65 or older be allowed to hold public office? Have you protested that no person 65 or older should be allowed any form of employment or public assistance? You've stated they have no potential, no life ahead of them, why is it that only now you've decided it's acceptable to sacrifice them?
Here's a nice number for you: 311. Any guesses what 311 represents? It represents about 1 of every 3 Nobel Prize winners. Of the 919 individuals awarded Nobel Prizes, 311 were 65 or older at the time of award, with the oldest being 90.311 useless people with nothing to contribute.
At the time of the American Revolution Benjamin Franklin, arguably the architect of the revolution, was 70 years old.
Anna Mary Robertson Moses, more commonly known as "Grandma Moses" didn't begin painting until she was 78.
Paul Dirac was still contributing to the field of physics well into his 70's.
Galileo Galilei was 68 when he wrote "Concerning the Two Chief World Systems."
Max Planck's contributions to physics continued well into his 70's.
Even Donald Trump was 70 years old when he became President.
The arts, sciences and even politics are full of examples of people with a great deal to contribute, even with poor health or at an advanced age. Many of the people who frequent this forum are either already in the group that you're happy to kill off, or they're close enough to see that day coming.
Yet, you've decided that all those people need to die. Are you willing to put yourself on the chopping block too? You're ready, willing and eager to kill off anyone else who has a high risk factor. Will you commit your own life to that ideal? It's quite simple. On the day you turn 65, or on the day when you are diagnosed with any condition which puts you in the high risk group for coronavirus, stop eating, stop drinking. Stop being what you've declared is useless. Note that if you are prescribed any medications which depress your auto-immune system, you automatically enter the high risk group, regardless of age.
Or does your willingness to kill only apply to others?
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[QUOTE=ShooBree;2475038]Where's your evidence of it not being herd immunity?
NY is seeing the effects of herd immunity, Sweden didn't change their strategy yet they are seeing a sharp decrease in number of Corona related deaths. There are no real evidence against that.
Well, if we are going to compare it to the common cold the only way forward is to simply live with it. The low mortality rate most certainly enable us to live life as normal.[/QUOTE]Another thing these stupid fucks can't seem to grasp, basic scientific principles. Is Sweden's education system really that bad, or are you just abnormally stupid?
It's impossible to prove a negative.
Here's a simple example:
A clueless fucking idiot claims "herd immunity" is responsible for any city or country which has seen a drop in the number of new cases of coronavirus infection. The shit for brains fuckwad provides no evidence, nothing other than the baseless and frankly moronic claim that "herd immunity" is responsible.
Even if you run an antibody test on 100% of the population, the ass candy munching, cockless imbecile will insist the tests are flawed, the threshold for "herd immunity" is lower, or that some bizarre conspiracy is in play. There's simply no way to overcome the entrenched ignorance of such mentally challenged shitstains.
Science doesn't work that way. Instead of trying to prove that a giant ravenous monster doesn't either take a bite out of the moon each night, or regurgitate it, science notes the orbital path and period of the moon in relation to the rotation of the Earth and shows the changing phase of the moon is merely a matter of perspective, rather than a change in the size and shape of the moon.
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[QUOTE=ShooBree;2475041]I would be really embarrassed if I thought that San Marino didn't have any unreported cases of corona, especially considering that it's the country worst affected of the virus in the world. Only a complete moron would even if entertain that thought.
I for one would love to hear how come San Marino was so unlucky to have a death rate twice the one of the US. USA, the country known for their serious health problems among the population. It's so weird that the experts are talking about a mortality rate in the range of 0.2-1.0%, but in San Marino they have a mortality rate of over 6%. That blows my mind.[/QUOTE]You should be really embarrassed. Well, your parents should be really embarrassed, as I'm certain they are.
If you had bothered to read the link you would have noted. Sorry. A person with an IQ over 75 would have noted that San Marino has tested 5. 6% of their population, much more than any other European country. The next closest is Italy at 1. 6%. That gives them a better idea of how many actual cases versus known cases. It also makes your claim of "herd immunity" even less plausible, as they are aggressively testing for antibodies in order to track down potential outbreaks.
Your "herd immunity" assumption requires at least another 21,000 undetected cases in addition to the 700 detected cases. Even if it only takes 20% to achieve "herd immunity" that requires an additional 6,000 undetected cases, without any of those additional cases resulting in deaths.
You can't have it both ways you dumb fucking swallower. If you have a 10 to 300 times increase in cases, to achieve herd immunity, with only 42 deaths the mortality rate drops down to practically nothing. So which is it? Did San Marino somehow miss 90-97% of their cases to achieve herd immunity? Or is the mortality rate for San Marino actually between 0. 2-0. 6%?
As you clowns constantly do, you pick whatever data point you think supports your position and throw everything at it.
However, San Marino is too small of a population for worldwide statistical modeling. In addition, it's average age is higher than Italy's, although not much. More people in the high risk group means higher mortality rate.
6% for San Marino? New York City had 10%. Stockholm had 10%. Cochabamba, Bolivia 10%. You can't compare San Marino to the US, just as you can't compare Stockholm to the US state of Montana. But since you want to do it, let's go for it.
Stockholm mortality rate 10.32%.
Montana mortality rate 1.46%.
Now go apologize to your parents.
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[QUOTE=ShooBree;2475041]I for one would love to hear how come San Marino was so unlucky to have a death rate twice the one of the US. USA, the country known for their serious health problems among the population. It's so weird that the experts are talking about a mortality rate in the range of 0.2-1.0%, but in San Marino they have a mortality rate of over 6%. That blows my mind.[/QUOTE]The problem with all this mathematical nonsense is that you have to make an assumption that the environment does not matter (it does), the virus does not have more deadly or contagious mutations (it does), and so all the calculations on death are stupid, and here is why.
Every single one of these calculations is based on the virus continuing on the same path it is now and people reacting to it the same way which are the very things that for certain will not happen.
The calculations on herd immunity are based on how contagious the virus is, and the number of deaths are based upon how deadly the virus is. To get an accurate answer is impossible as not only is the virus changing but how people are being treated for it has changed, behaviors have changed, and what age group gets infected may change. The notion that in the USA we need to reach 750,000 deaths to reach herd immunity is mental masturbation.
On top of that, there is some evidence that prior exposure to a corona virus may also confer immunity in which case herd immunity could be achieved at 20% of the population being infected. That was the magic number on the Diamond Princess cruise ship.
But I do not know what that number is and the so called experts do not either. At best, you may get so called expert consensus based on shit data.
In this red-blue world, the divide is now between the vaccine and herd immunity which is a false choice. We are going to have live with the virus and re calibrate our policies to reflect what has worked and what has not and make our goals realistic. That is what has bugged me so much. That recalibration is not being done.
I will tell you that Covid has been good to me, and part of this is that I have done the recalibration in my personal life. What does it say about that fucker Fauci being at a ball game without a mask on? I will tell you this. I have been doing similar things, but I am not getting paid to be a public expert. What Fauci was doing was totally safe. He just does not have the balls to admit it.
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[QUOTE=Surfer500;2475301]Unfortunately the lock downs in Colombia have not been as effective as in other Countries as evidenced by the trending numbers to date. Everything is going up like a rocket ship headed to the moon.
Tourism, well it's really a drop in the bucket for Colombia, what needs to happen is for the economy to open back up so the residents can spend money and revive things.[/QUOTE]That is a good point. We can gripe about the travel ban but the lockdown has hurt the Colombian economy far more.
[QUOTE=Surfer500;2475301]Unfortunately, if they do so, things will get worse than they are now as evidenced by other Countries and in the USA that have opened up pre-maturely. The lockdowns have been effective in Countries with authoritarian rule, or citizens that abide by them, and have been less effective in third world countries.[/QUOTE]Nah. I get why you would think that though. That is the old explanation based on old data. It is an explanation that benefits the libtards and Demorats wanting to get Trump out of office where government policy is all that matters with spread of the virus. To be sure, Trump and people under him have made mistakes, but that is only part of the reason for the viral spread.
There is a much more infectious mutation, and it is just one of them: [URL]https://www.biospace.com/article/mutated-covid-19-viral-strain-in-us-and-europe-much-more-contagious/[/URL].
Mutated COVID-19 Viral Strain in USA And Europe 10 Times More Contagious than Original Strain.
Then you look at this much more detailed report: [URL]https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmicb.2020.01800/full[/URL]#F4.
Generally, the G and GR clades are prevalently present in Europe, while the clade S and GH have been mostly observed in the Americas (Figure 4). The "L" reference clade is mostly represented by sequences from Asia.
It is interesting to note that Asia, initially characterized by reference sequences, is currently observing a rise in G, GH, and GR genomes, which gained ground in the continent at the beginning of March 2020, more than 1 month after the appearance of these clades in Europe.
Here is a link to figure showing the various clades of virus based on location: [URL]https://www.frontiersin.org/files/Articles/555497/fmicb-11-01800-HTML/image_m/fmicb-11-01800-g005.jpg[/URL].
So I get what you are saying. You look at China and a lesser degree Europe and say, "Hey, lock downs work. " but then you look at the Americas, and they have not. The explanation is that people in the Americas are lazy, non compliant dumb asses when in reality, the virus mutated, and the experts do not want to admit they fucked up with the advice they gave.
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Still lying I see.
[QUOTE=ShooBree;2475037]Furthermore, the ones dying aren't the ones with bright futures ahead. It's the ones with no future, it's the weak and old that have lived their lives and are now getting ready for their final rest.[/QUOTE]Myself and others have pointed out the slew of fallacies employed by Elvirus, most prominently goal posts shifts, non-sequitors, and strawmen. This Shoobrees though habitually employs the fallacy of the adnaseum or "proof by repetition. " This involves repeating the same claim over and over even though it has been effectively exposed as false. So what do you do? You just put the evidence to the contrary back in their face again. They of course are free to continue ignoring it and lying, nonetheless they have been exposed.
Covid causes more than death. Many suffer long term, debilitating symptoms and permanent damage is possible.
[URL]https://www.baltimoresun.com/feature...gzy-story.html[/URL]
Though it primarily effects elders the young don't get a pass.
[URL]https://www.wfla.com/community/healt...19-in-florida/[/URL]
[URL]https://fox59.com/news/coronavirus/2...erge-of-death/[/URL]
There's also evidence of serious neurological effects in small children.
[URL]https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/covid19/87378[/URL]
Scroll down and review the CDC data on deaths. Plenty of the 54 and under crowd are effected.
[URL]https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provisiona...nd-S/9bhg-hcku[/URL]
There's also plenty of people 60 years old and beyond that enjoy much quality of life, further solidifying the above, sweeping statement as a lie.
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[QUOTE=JjBee62;2475295]You should be really embarrassed. Well, your parents should be really embarrassed, as I'm certain they are.
If you had bothered to read the link you would have noted. Sorry. A person with an IQ over 75 would have noted that San Marino has tested 5. 6% of their population, much more than any other European country. The next closest is Italy at 1. 6%. That gives them a better idea of how many actual cases versus known cases. It also makes your claim of "herd immunity" even less plausible, as they are aggressively testing for antibodies in order to track down potential outbreaks.
Your "herd immunity" assumption requires at least another 21,000 undetected cases in addition to the 700 detected cases. Even if it only takes 20% to achieve "herd immunity" that requires an additional 6,000 undetected cases, without any of those additional cases resulting in deaths.
You can't have it both ways you dumb fucking swallower. If you have a 10 to 300 times increase in cases, to achieve herd immunity, with only 42 deaths the mortality rate drops down to practically nothing. So which is it? Did San Marino somehow miss 90-97% of their cases to achieve herd immunity? Or is the mortality rate for San Marino actually between 0. 2-0. 6%?.[/QUOTE]If you test 5. 6% you can never find out if more than 5. 6% of the population have been infected. Pretty obvious to me. To find the total number of infected you have to test for T-cells and antibodies as well. Given the number of deaths and the 0. 2% IFR predicted by the CDC it's easy to calculate that approximately 60% of the population in San Marino been infected of the virus. The known COVID-19 cases are only the tip of the iceberg. The threshold of herd immunity is unknown but not unlikely around 40% of the population.
I'm laughing my ass of since the experts and I have understood for a long time that the actual IFR is 0. 2-1. 0%, not 6-10% as you seem to believe. You are the perfect poster boy for the Dunning-Kruger Effect. Your insults are pure compliments.
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[QUOTE=JjBee62;2475286]Why can't any of you stupid fucks do basic math? Seriously? I sort of understand it from the US, because the country has been embracing ignorance as a virtue for decades, but I thought Europe was better.
Using your numbers, because I don't want to put any extra strain on the 9 pissants you're using in lieu of a brain, 660,000 additional deaths would be an increase in the annual number of deaths of more than 20%. Put in perspective, that's a huge fucking jump. Even the 200,000 which currently looks unavoidable for the US represents a 7% increase in number of deaths.
Another question. Why can't any of you stupid fucks understand that nobody is "sacrificing the economy?" During a global pandemic, especially one of this magnitude, the economy is going to suffer. Whether you do nothing, or you take extreme measures, the economy is going to take a hit. The question is:
Is it better to put the economy on pause for 12 weeks, while you get a handle on the spread of disease, or is it better to let the disease run it's course and let the economy suffer indefinitely?
My belief is that a 12 week shutdown, followed by an extended period of mandated mask usage, represents a manageable, and more importantly predictable, retraction of the economy.[/QUOTE]The poster boy of the Dunning-Kruger Effect strikes again! You haven't understood a first thing about what I wrote. You truly are a demagogue. Have you ever heard of the exceptions to the rule? You choosing to present extreme statistical outliers only strengthen my point. As far as I know both Trump and Bolsonaro are alive and well. Why? Because the virus only kills the weakest.
I live my life as normal, if I die I die. There are no special rules for me. If someone dies because I live my life as normal, then it's meant to be.
That you haven't heard anything about Germans struggling is only because you're ignorant.