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[QUOTE=ExpatLover;2582930]It is too early to see hospitalizations and deaths rising but for sure this will happen within 2 weeks, Macron is not stressed for nothing, he get better info than we and he knows that if the situation is getting bad again he will face a big challenge for his re-election in 2022. But it is already too late, France never want to close the boarders like UK so terrible results in fighting the pandemic.[/QUOTE][U]UK 2nd wave:[/U]
Cases.
1 September: 1 K per day.
1 November: 20 K per day (20 x in 2 months).
Deaths:
1 September: 20 per day.
1 November: 300 per day (15 x in 2 months).
[B] These mortality numbers were terrible[/B]
[U]UK's current post-vaccination Delta wave:[/U]
Cases:
1 May: 2 K per day.
1 July: 20 K per day (10 x in 2 months) 1 July.
Deaths:
1 May: 16 per day.
1 July: 17 per day (1. 06 x in 2 months).
[B]Examined over the same time period, these numbers are not nearly as bad. It is not too early[/B]
[U]Comparing today to UK 3rd wave[/U]
Cases.
1 January: 47 K per day.
21 July: 47 K per day.
Deaths:
1 January: 500.
21 July: 53.
This is your vaccine efficacy data or perhaps Delta strain mortality data. Over the same 2 month span of case increase, deaths did not spike. Given the same case numbers as in January, deaths are 10 x lower. These lower mortality numbers compared over equal time periods indicate that either the vaccines are doing a hell of a job or Delta variant is much less lethal. Either way, things are much much better.
[URL]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/[/URL]
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[QUOTE=BigBuddy69;2583146]So long for the 'this is my last post on this thread' statement, which was miraculously edited. So long for the 'I will never take the Pfizer vaccine' statement too.
Being addicted to a paysex forum, what a burden. You can't resist the urge to constantly flood every thread (like a diarrhea of words) and you end up contradicting yourself.[/QUOTE]I do remember him championing the Chinese vaccines saying he will not take the scary BigPharm vaccines.
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[QUOTE=HammerTime96;2583185]"Doomers and gloomers" and yet they say that "it's just a flu?
I think it's clear who are the doomers and gloomers here: it's all the pussies who wanted the entire world shut down for a flu!
Why don't you comment on epidemiologist Prof John Ioannidis and his study that proves that the Infection Mortality Rate is very similar to the flu?[/QUOTE]Why don't you comment on basic statistics?
Deaths from COVID in one year in France: around 80 000.
[URL]https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths[/URL]
Deaths from flu in one year in France: on average around 10 000.
[URL]https://www.santepubliquefrance.fr/maladies-et-traumatismes/maladies-et-infections-respiratoires/grippe/articles/la-grippe-une-epidemie-saisonniere[/URL]
So if it's the same mortality rate, it means that COVID is a LOT MORE contagious, hence the different restrictions.
Actually I gave you the same numbers for USA some months ago but you didn't bother to comment. The ratio deaths from covid / deaths from the flu was also somewhere between 5 and 8.
In case you tell me that the flu only occurs 3 months a year, if we take the 3 deadliest months for COVID in France, it still kills 30 000-40 000 people, and it was during the lockdown periods.
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[QUOTE=HammerTime96;2583185]"Doomers and gloomers" and yet they say that "it's just a flu?
I think it's clear who are the doomers and gloomers here: it's all the pussies who wanted the entire world shut down for a flu!
Why don't you comment on epidemiologist Prof John Ioannidis and his study that proves that the Infection Mortality Rate is very similar to the flu?
You dumb Doom & Gloom Suckers believe all the government and MSM propaganda![/QUOTE]Looking at Ioannidis' goofy haircut I guess I personally find it hard to take him seriously because he apparently is prone to bad decision making. But no worries, surely if his theories are correct, whatever they are, many many, probably a majority of other epidemiologists would reinforce his findings. I'll wait for the data to swing his way if it ever does. In a capitalist society, the best work usually rises to the top. Maybe he'll make it when he cleans up his methodology.
Also, find an original pejorative instead of ripping off others? Most others here are a bit cautiously optimistic about visiting clubs. Maybe you'll be happier and get over your wrong prediction if you gave the clubs a shot. Or just stay home and be angry. Your choice. No one else really cares.
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[QUOTE=Mursenary;2583293]I do remember him championing the Chinese vaccines saying he will not take the scary BigPharm vaccines.[/QUOTE]03/23 :
[QUOTE]For sure I will never take the AZ, or the Pfister and Moderna. [/QUOTE]01/26 :
[QUOTE]I will take the vaccine the Russian or Chinese one not the Pfister or Moderna which is not a vaccine but a RNA treatment (genetic)[/QUOTE]Balls of steel!
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[QUOTE=PaulInZurich;2583155]This is the key, number of hospitalizations tend to lag number of cases by 2 - 3 weeks and number of deaths lag number of hospitalizations by another 2-3 weeks. We will see now with the UK experiment what will happen. If UK shows that after vulnerable people are protected by vaccines, that the number of serious cases and deaths is low, that will give to politicians in other European countries additional information to consider.[/QUOTE]Well, it's been 2 months since UK cases started doubling and tripling. This current British wave started in May.
[B][U]Data: [/u][/B]
[U]20 May 2021 (baseline)[/U]
Confirmed Positive: 1500.
Hospital Admissions: 750.
Admission rate: 50%.
[U]20 June 2021 (after 4 weeks)[/U]
Confirmed Positive: 9000.
Hospital Admissions: 1500.
Admission rate: 16.7%.
[U]20 July 2021 (after 9weeks) [/U]
Confirmed Positive: 47 K.
Hospital Admissions: 4500.
Admission rate: 10%.
[U]January (3rd wave peak)[/U]
Confirmed positive peak: 59 K.
Hospitalization Peak: 29 K.
Admission rate: 50%.
[U]Data: November (2nd wave peak)[/U]
Confirmed positive peak: 25 K.
Hospitalization peak: 12.5 K.
Admission rate: 50%.
[B][U]Conclusion[/U][/B]
Up until this Delta wave, UK hospitalizations always hovered at around 50% of confirmed positives. Since cases began to rise in May (serving as our baseline for comparison), admission rates declined after 4 weeks to 16.7% and to less than 10% after 9 weeks from baseline. Basically, as Delta spreads amongst the now vaccinated population, while total admission will go up, admission percentage decreases significantly. Severe cases and deaths have not kept up with the rise in total cases suggesting that either Delta is less lethal, vaccines are working, and / or mostly healthy people are becoming infected.
[B][U]Discussion[/U][/B]
Add the data from the USA and it is clear that the EU has enough data from like nations to make educated policy decisions. It is also obvious that we are approaching vaccination maximums as those that want to be vaccinated mostly already have. As such vaccination alone will not get us to herd immunity. In order to reach herd thresholds, the obvious thing to do is to make up the difference by letting those who choose to go unvaxxed be free to get infected so we can reach the 70-90% threshold. If they or a loved one becomes severely ill or even dies, well it is their collective and individual right to do so.
Data source:
[URL]https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-09-06..2021-07-11&pickerSort=asc&pickerMetric=location&Metric=Case+fatality+rate&Relative+to+Population=false&Align+outbreaks=false&country=~GBR[/URL]
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[QUOTE=ShooBree;2583139]You sound like a fucking moron, you do realize that not everyone have had the opportunity to get vaccinated and people traveling to Germany unvaccinated are less likely to spread Corona than the vaccinated morons without any antigen or pcr-test.[/QUOTE]Does it even matter if vaxxed people spread it? Isn't it just the flu?
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[QUOTE=Turgid;2583265]It is summertime, cases are supposed to go down in summer. What will happen in winter?[/QUOTE]Original covid seemed not to like heat, but delta seem to love, exploding on this Summer under 30 degrees.
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[QUOTE=Mursenary;2583353]Does it even matter if vaxxed people spread it? Isn't it just the flu?[/QUOTE]I don't give a fuck about COVID, what I do care about is having a great time in Spain next week when I arrive.
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[QUOTE=Mursenary;2583353]Does it even matter if vaxxed people spread it? Isn't it just the flu?[/QUOTE]For young people, yes it is just a common cold or flu. For old people with comorbidity, you are fuck. If you have to, take the novavax. The vaccine might cause variant that will fuck over younger people.
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[QUOTE=NiteRiderCal;2583438]For young people, yes it is just a common cold or flu. For old people with comorbidity, you are fuck. If you have to, take the novavax. The vaccine might cause variant that will fuck over younger people.[/QUOTE]I've never intubated so many 50 year olds for the cold or flu in my 10 years is patient care and medicine. Fortunately most did not die. I'm sure they did not enjoy the 7.5 mm tube in their pharynx and even less, the 5 mm tube in their pee holes.
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[QUOTE=ShooBree;2583416]I don't give a fuck about COVID, what I do care about is having a great time in Spain next week when I arrive.[/QUOTE]You can thank the development and deployment of vaccines for bringing down the cases enough so you can enjoy that trip to Spain.
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[QUOTE=NiteRiderCal;2583438].... The vaccine might cause variant that will fuck over younger people.[/QUOTE]Oh no, not my Romanian hunnies!
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[QUOTE=NiteRiderCal;2583438]For young people, yes it is just a common cold or flu. For old people with comorbidity, you are fuck. If you have to, take the novavax. The vaccine might cause variant that will fuck over younger people.[/QUOTE]Just a flu for young people, except when it's not.
[URL]https://www.espn.com/mma/story/_/id/31199517/ufc-featherweight-champ-alexander-volkanovski-details-covid-19-battle[/URL]
[URL]https://www.espn.com/mma/story/_/id/31295378/khamzat-chimaev-says-healthy-hungry-covid-19-threatened-mma-career[/URL]
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[QUOTE=Mursenary;2583458]You can thank the development and deployment of vaccines for bringing down the cases enough so you can enjoy that trip to Spain.[/QUOTE]That's funny to take a trip to Spain when one thinks that the Spaniards are lazy parasites.