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RKI on the delta
I might be heading for the fuck factories in Frankfurt in the weekend and I am trying to judge if I, being fully vaccinated, should be worried about the CCP virus. It seems very hard to get a definite answer to the question of how dangerous the delta variant really is. In Israel it is like the vaccine has no effect at all on transmission, but I also looked at the weekly report from the Robert-Koch institute (Wöchentlicher COVID-19-Lagebericht vom 19.08. 2021, page 19). Assuming the numbers are correct, it is interesting to note that the vaccine seems to have been quite effective for the age group 18-59 during the last month:
Sympthomatic covid cases, age 18-59, week 29-32:38. 829.
Probable vaccine breakthrough cases: 5. 736.
Expected number of sympthomatic cases if vaccine had no effect, and 60% fully vaccinated: 23.297.
About 75% reduction compared to expectation.
Hospitalized covid cases, age 18-59, week 29-32:2. 055.
Probable vaccine breakthrough cases: 97.
Expected number of vaccinated hospitalized cases if vaccine had no effect, and 60% fully vaccinated: 1. 233.
About 92% reduction compared to expectation.
Intensive care covid cases, age 18-59, week 29-32:165.
Probable vaccine breakthrough cases: 4.
Expected number of vaccinated cases if vaccine had no effect, and 60% fully vaccinated: 99.
About 96% reduction compared to expectation.
Covid deaths, age 18-59, week 29-32:16.
Probable vaccine breakthrough cases: 0.
Even if we would account for the lag effect properly (usually takes a few weeks from case to hospital to ICU to death), the vaccine still looks pretty good. In Germany at least.
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[QUOTE=Mursenary;2596720]Funny, my post was just as long as yours so your TLDR is utter trolling behavior.
Nothing has changed. People have been given provided the opportunity to protect themselves. Human cost have been reasonably considered. Cannot live with pandemic restrictions forever. Let it rip.[/QUOTE]Let it rip, let it burn. And get back to normal life. But we are not doing that now, are we. Our head is in our ass.
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[QUOTE=Pistons;2596605]1. We can create a simulation, and everyone moves into the simulation for lets say 6 months or a year. Scaling this up is probably 2 decades away aven if we can get full immersion within 10 years if everything as fast as it can.
2. Nanorobots can kill off the virus. But we might need nano factories in order to do this well enough. So it might be maybe 2 decades away.
Right now there is no good solution. Only people arguing between the lesser bad solution. Maybe we can give people UBI for 2 or 3 years, even in poor countries, and then have people locked inside for a few months while drones deliver food from warehouses. But we are probably not there yet either.[/QUOTE]Let it burn,. That is the only way out of the pandemic. Let live a good life. This is no way to live. Vaccine, lock down, mask forever. No, let it rip / burn.
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[QUOTE=NiteRiderCal;2596828]Let it rip, let it burn. And get back to normal life. But we are not doing that now, are we. Our head is in our ass.[/QUOTE]Wondering what head in ass means to you.
Most of my country, USA, is completely wide open with some mask restrictions and some workplaces requiring vaccination. Schools are open. Bars open. People back to work. Basically you can do whatever you want.
Hospitals are packed and with about a 5:1 unvaxxed to vaxxed ratio. Average age in my particular hospital just dropped to 59 years.
So I have no idea what your bitching about when you say we.
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[QUOTE=YellowFinTuna;2596760]Even if we would account for the lag effect properly (usually takes a few weeks from case to hospital to ICU to death), the vaccine still looks pretty good. In Germany at least.[/QUOTE]People without comorbidity have nothing to worry about. The vaccine work in preventing hospitalization and death in people with comorbidity. However, like antibiotic drug resistant bacteria. The vaccine is selecting for adaptive immunity resistant virus. Eventually will killing younger people as well. This is a forever pandemic.
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[QUOTE=Mursenary;2596862]Wondering what head in ass means to you.
Most of my country, USA, is completely wide open with some mask restrictions and some workplaces requiring vaccination. Schools are open. Bars open. People back to work. Basically you can do whatever you want.
Hospitals are packed and with about a 5:1 unvaxxed to vaxxed ratio. Average age in my particular hospital just dropped to 59 years.
So I have no idea what your bitching about when you say we.[/QUOTE]Not sure what state you living in. Where I'm at, even fully vax can't go into the office. Only lab people can go in. And those fully vax lab people have to wear mask. They relax the mask thing for a few weeks. But oh No delta.
You already know what head in ass mean to me. And I already know your answer. It is pointless. Let it rip and burn.
Me: vaccine select for vaccine resistant mutation, and variant that will kill young people. Therefore this pandemic will last forever.
You: evolution is theoretical. And real life something, something.
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[QUOTE=Mursenary;2596862]Wondering what head in ass means to you.
Most of my country, USA, is completely wide open with some mask restrictions and some workplaces requiring vaccination. Schools are open. Bars open. People back to work. Basically you can do whatever you want.
Hospitals are packed and with about a 5:1 unvaxxed to vaxxed ratio. Average age in my particular hospital just dropped to 59 years.
So I have no idea what your bitching about when you say we.[/QUOTE]Funny in US, fights in some flights with injured air hostesses, between some who don t want to put on mask in plane and those who put, not only in 1 flight.
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I wrote it many times, the vaccines have a efficiency around 50% like for the normal flue, if you are vaccinated, wearing a mask and frequently washing your hand the risks are quite low. But some places or activities are at higher risks like FKK which are at extreme risks. Despite fact that you are young, healthy not 1 serious doctor can guarantee you that you will not die from the covid. Looking at global figures will bring you nothing if you are in a ICU bed.
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[QUOTE=NiteRiderCal;2596889]People without comorbidity have nothing to worry about.[/QUOTE]Once again, this is not true.
[URL]https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-021-01433-3[/URL]
[QUOTE]In these young adults, comorbidity was not significantly associated with persistent symptoms (33% versus 31%, P = 1) or fatigue (47% versus 27%, P = 0.2), although numbers of subjects were low[/QUOTE]
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[QUOTE=NiteRiderCal;2596889]People without comorbidity have nothing to worry about. The vaccine work in preventing hospitalization and death in people with comorbidity. However, like antibiotic drug resistant bacteria. The vaccine is selecting for adaptive immunity resistant virus. Eventually will killing younger people as well. This is a forever pandemic.[/QUOTE]In the beginning, they said the vaccine would prevent you from getting Covid.
Then they changed it to, it will prevent you from getting really ill, when catching Covid.
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[QUOTE=NiteRiderCal;2596929]Not sure what state you living in. Where I'm at, even fully vax can't go into the office. Only lab people can go in. And those fully vax lab people have to wear mask. They relax the mask thing for a few weeks. But oh No delta.
You: evolution is theoretical. And real life something, something.[/QUOTE]Sorry that your daily life is not 100% as you want. Inconvenience is part of being an adult, but life is 90% normal for 90% of Americans, loose estimation. Completely normal in my area. So no idea about what "head in ass" claim means outside of media headlines that rile up emotions.
Belittling the effect of this illness by stating that only the old and people with comorbidities have to worry does not factor that over 20% of the American population is over 65. Add people with comorbidities and and we are speaking about about one third of the population affected that you quickly disregard. In America, that is over 100 million at risk. Similar rates in Europe for elderly with perhaps less comorbidity. Either way, easily 25% of 500 million, another 125 million at risk.
Fearmongering about possible future variants is quite manipulative in its own right. Possible sure, addressing the burning house that was the completely full hospitals over the winter with people needlessly dying or suffering from extended illness was of greater importance than an idealistic, academic consideration of "what ifs". Must be nice to have the luxury of considering ideal, theoretical sequela. But realities of the Front lines require emergency intervention. Academic theory is nice, but in cases of emergency, quick action is needed.
While you promote a "let it burn" philosophy as a general rule, I only support this approach after considering the previous year's interventions because I feel that we have done enough to mitigate loss, given people time and options to protect themselves. "Let it rip" is my attitude now only because I don't believe in forcing people's hand after providing them the facts and tools and the most at risk groups have been vaccinated at a reasonable proportion. There is now a lower ceiling for maximum loss.
Realities not Ideology.
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[QUOTE=Sirioja;2597034]Funny in US, fights in some flights with injured air hostesses, between some who don t want to put on mask in plane and those who put, not only in 1 flight.[/QUOTE]Cool story.
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[QUOTE=PinballMachine;2597127]In the beginning, they said the vaccine would prevent you from getting Covid.
Then they changed it to, it will prevent you from getting really ill, when catching Covid.[/QUOTE]Things change. Delta exploded. Vaccines were tested when wild type, Kent, and South African strains were dominant.
Not like they moved the goal post. The game changed. Science is not static.
You work with the data you have, anticipate potential issues the best you can. Despite this, they are pretty useful in fighting this pandemic level illness.
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[QUOTE=NiteRiderCal;2596832]Let it burn,. That is the only way out of the pandemic. Let live a good life. This is no way to live. Vaccine, lock down, mask forever. No, let it rip / burn.[/QUOTE]Well, that's more like a strategy than a way out. Just like vaccines are.
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[QUOTE=Sirioja;2597034]Funny in US, fights in some flights with injured air hostesses, between some who don t want to put on mask in plane and those who put, not only in 1 flight.[/QUOTE]Can you blame them? I mean putting on a mask is really the worst of the worst things in life!
LOL.