Rants and WTF are you talking about and Coronavirus!

[QUOTE=Pessimist;2466804]Haha Thank you very much. You know, the the favorite 4 words of an economist are "on the other hand".

An economist is someone who doesn't know what he's talking about. And make you feel it's your fault.

Q: Why did God create economists? A: In order to make weather forecasters look good.

Milton's First Law of Economists: For every economist, there exists an equal and opposite economist. The Second Law of Economists: They're both wrong.[/QUOTE]And the truth to this is; if you really want to know how the world works. Ask an economist.

Well, there is a reason for economics to be grouped together with social studies at a lot of higher learning institutions. Because it economics is essentially that. A social science. And as such, it all resolves around combating cultist paradigms.

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[QUOTE=Pessimist;2467102]One babe I saw on seeking today.[/QUOTE]If same for real, because photoshop can be a liar, but for how much is she available?

[QUOTE=ExpatLover;2466950]40 years back in France or Germany no girl or woman was wearing a bra on the beach or swimming pool, today that is no more possible so many frustrated guys around.............[/QUOTE]This is due to the migrants. Most of the migrants come from countries where men and women bathe in separate beaches and even in the women only beaches the women bathe in clothes covered from head to toe so if a peeping tom is getting his rocks off at a women's beach he can only see the eyes and nose. Now transport such a bloke to a beach in France and Germany where he is seeing a woman's body for the first time he will be unable to control himself. Reminds me of a Cheech and Chong movie where an Saudi Arabian guy went to the US and watched porn for the first time - hilarious.

[QUOTE=Sirioja;2467283]If same for real, because photoshop can be a liar, but for how much is she available?[/QUOTE]On seeking and other sugar babe sites, girls are not prostitutes. They will have sex (or many of them will anyway not necessarily all), but one has to work for it -- a bit like dating, but sex is more guaranteed than in dating, and also you have to give some money and gifts than in normal dating. Otherwise, you have to talk to each girl, spend time getting to know each other and eventually can have sex. I have generally paid $200 to $300 per session, but each session is not timed -- could be a couple of hours could be more, some times we spend hours together w / dinner or lunch, drinks and then sex. Nothing is an extra, but obviously not all girls will do every thing (just like in real life dating).

I just included that pic because I suggested to Turgid about sugar babes. This girl is not in my home town and I did not contact her. Just a girl I saw on the site.

I have used sugar babes in Europe (not in Germany because if I am in Germany I use FKKs) and I have given 200 Euros in Spain etc. Girls were really good. One girl in Barcelona spent nearly 3 hours, with sex in the bathroom shower, then spent 30 minutes just BLS. Good times.

[QUOTE=RockyV;2467010]I totally agree with this analysis. Great contribution to the discussion. Thanks![/QUOTE]Thank you Sir! Very kind!

Migrants from where, China, Japan, South Korea? Obviously not, most of those migrants are coming from countries where they have the same religion, this is the truth and the reality.

[QUOTE=Sirioja;2467283]If same for real, because photoshop can be a liar, but for how much is she available?[/QUOTE]One more thing Sirioja. Generally, my experience is that most girls are not photoshopped that much. Unlike w / escorts, you don't approach sugar babes only for sex. You meet, have a drink / lunch or dinner / movie date etc and then may be sex at some point. If the girl looks very different from photos, you can walk away. For that reason, most girls do not cheat. Some have photos from a year ago and say "of the 4 photos, the 3rd photo is a year old" in their profile description.

This girl I included is pretty hot. Not all of them are that cute. This one is just 19 or 20. I would think if she agrees to have sex, it will be at least $400 for a couple of hours. That would be my guess. I will be very surprised if she agrees to $300.

Keep in mind paid sex is technically illegal and more expensive in most of America. So, prices will be a bit higher than Europe, to be expected.

[QUOTE=Pessimist;2467421]On seeking and other sugar babe sites, girls are not prostitutes. They will have sex (or many of them will anyway not necessarily all), but one has to work for it -- a bit like dating, but sex is more guaranteed than in dating, and also you have to give some money and gifts than in normal dating. Otherwise, you have to talk to each girl, spend time getting to know each other and eventually can have sex. I have generally paid $200 to $300 per session, but each session is not timed -- could be a couple of hours could be more, some times we spend hours together w / dinner or lunch, drinks and then sex. Nothing is an extra, but obviously not all girls will do every thing (just like in real life dating).

I just included that pic because I suggested to Turgid about sugar babes. This girl is not in my home town and I did not contact her. Just a girl I saw on the site.

I have used sugar babes in Europe (not in Germany because if I am in Germany I use FKKs) and I have given 200 Euros in Spain etc. Girls were really good. One girl in Barcelona spent nearly 3 hours, with sex in the bathroom shower, then spent 30 minutes just BLS. Good times.[/QUOTE]I would pay 200/300 USD for her if photos are reliable. Yes, in Spain can have a girl for evening restaurant and the night for 300 + gift like perfume. Can also sometimes in Paris with Russian escort.

[QUOTE=Pessimist;2466778]We look to ourselves to survive and do not depend on the government. Our best president of last 50 years Reagan said government is part of the problem, not of solution. We own guns to protect ourselves; I do myself even if I live in a very nice gated complex.[/QUOTE][URL=https://www.aarp.org/politics-society/history/info-2018/pew-recent-president-survey.html]Among Americans over 73, Reagan is most popular. Reagan edges Obama for age group 38-53.[/URL] I didn't realize how unpopular JFK was. In my views, the current debates on police violence can be traced to Reagan's time in office. I think guns would be a good idea no matter where you live in the USA.

Just some thoughts on some of your other comments, that I didn't get around to responding too. RE: My caginess, I would say I try not to be too dogmatic or profess that something is undeniably true. RE: Nationalism: Younger Americans seem less likely to buy into ideas of American exceptionalism.

[QUOTE]"Millennials also were much less inclined to embrace the idea that America is the greatest country in the world. Only half of millennials felt that way, compared to much higher percentages of the other three generations. In a related response, only one-quarter of millenials saw the need for the U.S. to be the dominant world leader. These findings track with the 2014 American National Election Study, which found that while 78 percent of silent, 70 percent of boomer and 60 percent of Gen X respondents consider their American identity as extremely important, only 45 percent of millennials do."

[URL]https://theconversation.com/millennials-are-so-over-us-domination-of-world-affairs-99167[/URL]

"Younger people in the United States often have more positive views of foreign countries and institutions than their elders, according to Pew Research Center surveys. But do these attitudes persist as generations age? Results of a new analysis indicate that even as they grow older, younger generations tend to be more internationally oriented, more favorably disposed to groups, leaders and countries beyond their border, and less likely to see the U.S. as exceptional."

[URL]https://www.brookings.edu/blog/brookings-now/2018/02/02/millennials-are-on-the-frontlines-of-political-and-cultural-change-in-america/[/URL][/QUOTE]RE: Is predicting unrest / civil war in USA anti-USA? CIA Factbook considers a GINI over 40 to be a precursor for unrest and instability. That said, a richer country having a GINI of 45 should be more stable than a Third World country with the same GINI. The USA has had a GINI ratio above that threshold since the early 1990's. I have to imagine that at various points throughout the last quarter century, that FBI analysts while presenting reports to their superiors, might have echoed sentiments similar to mine.

Lastly, I could envision the pendulum swing from superpower nations towards smaller, powerful city-states. Didn't California half-heartedly suggest this? I am not predicting or hoping that US, EU, and China break up, but given the ease at which social media and mainstream media are able to create division, maybe the world evolves towards alliances of city-states. I am sure my investment portfolio would not appreciate that instability.

[QUOTE]"Today cities power over two-thirds of global GDP: they are marvels of innovation and engines for prosperity. Cities are open, plural and cosmopolitan while nation states are closed, nativist and parochial. ".

[URL]https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2017/06/as-nation-states-falter-cities-are-stepping-up/[/URL].[/QUOTE]

[QUOTE=Turgid;2467396]This is due to the migrants. Most of the migrants come from countries where men and women bathe in separate beaches and even in the women only beaches the women bathe in clothes covered from head to toe so if a peeping tom is getting his rocks off at a women's beach he can only see the eyes and nose.[/QUOTE]Seems like you are talking about Muslims. I am sure their numbers will continue to grow in the coming decades, but at least back in 2014, there weren't enough Muslims to impose their worldviews on nudity culture.

[QUOTE]"How much do people living in Germany know about the countrys Muslim population? This issue of the Research Units To The Point analyses one facet of what people know about Muslims based on an analysis of the 2014 SVR Integration Barometer: how many Muslims live in Germany? The analysis shows that around 70 per cent of respondents overestimate, in some cases significantly, the number of Muslims living in Germany. Nearly one-third of those surveyed estimated the number to be higher than 10 million although the actual figure is only around 4 million. Key factors in the accuracy of the estimate were the respondent's gender and level of education: women's estimates were much higher than men's regardless of the group of origin. People with upper secondary education (Abitur) were closer in their estimates to the actual figure than people with lower secondary education (Hauptschule)."

https://www.svr-migration.de/en/publications/how-many-muslims-live-in-germany/[/QUOTE]

[QUOTE=McAdonis;2467495][URL=https://www.aarp.org/politics-society/history/info-2018/pew-recent-president-survey.html]Among Americans over 73, Reagan is most popular. Reagan edges Obama for age group 38-53.[/URL] I didn't realize how unpopular JFK was. In my views, the current debates on police violence can be traced to Reagan's time in office. I think guns would be a good idea no matter where you live in the USA.

Just some thoughts on some of your other comments, that I didn't get around to responding too. RE: My caginess, I would say I try not to be too dogmatic or profess that something is undeniably true. RE: Nationalism: Younger Americans seem less likely to buy into ideas of American exceptionalism.

RE: Is predicting unrest / civil war in USA anti-USA? CIA Factbook considers a GINI over 40 to be a precursor for unrest and instability. That said, a richer country having a GINI of 45 should be more stable than a Third World country with the same GINI. The USA has had a GINI ratio above that threshold since the early 1990's. I have to imagine that at various points throughout the last quarter century, that FBI analysts while presenting reports to their superiors, might have echoed sentiments similar to mine..[/QUOTE]I thought you said the chance of unrest in US is 1% to 3%? Or is that the chance of a French style revolution? What is the chance of the same events in various European countries?

What does it mean to say there is a 1% chance? If we try this a hundred times, it is likely to happen once?

It seems to me even you think it is a very small chance. I don't think even you believe your numbers have any sort of precision to them. So, 1%, 3%, 5%, 0. 5%, 0. 1% are all in the same ball park.

I personally think it will not happen. Revolution is not some Monte Carlo analysis happening in real life. It either happens or does not happen. I don't think it will happen, in the next 5 years or even 10 years.

I am willing to wager that Euro will break up as a currency before there is a Revolution in US. That has no probabilities attached to the statement. If revolution happens in the US before Euro breaks up, you win I lose, LOL and vice versa.

As for city states, I haven't heard it. Yeah, CA is special and a bit weird. But city states? I would put even less money on it. Where is the evidence? Italy used to be a city states type system, now a normal country. I mean, you can speculate about these things but tbh, they are sounding to me like wild guesses.

Analysis to me is looking at a bunch of possibilities none of which look to be certain, perhaps most of them appear to be 20% to 30% probabilities, and picking the one or two which will become 70% to 80% type events. If we throw up a bunch of possibilities which have 1% to 5% chances, then I don't know what that gets us. OK, if one of those 1% events actually becomes 80% suddenly, you become a hero. That's what venture capitalists do, investing in a lot of things none of which look like sure fire winners and most are busts but if they hit a home run every once in a while it makes up for 25 other failures.

[QUOTE=Sirioja;2467484]I would pay 200/300 USD for her if photos are reliable. Yes, in Spain can have a girl for evening restaurant and the night for 300 + gift like perfume. Can also sometimes in Paris with Russian escort.[/QUOTE]I had a couple of Ukrainian and other CIS sugar babes who were in US for school, other short time stays. You are right, they were among the best. I wish we had more Russian girls coming to US for studies, LOL.

That girl in the photo, she will not be available for 200. May be a dinner date but not sex. Such a girl will demand at least 400 if she is going to have sex with you. However, it is not 400 per hour because she will spend a couple of hours w / you, if not more. Again, US is more expensive than Europe in these things.

[QUOTE=Pessimist;2467102]One babe I saw on seeking today.[/QUOTE]Youtuber Alyssa Kulani?

Have you met her irl?