General Info

[Pete Benetar]

the navy's shifting its 50-50 fleet alignment (pacific to atlantic) to 60-40 was not an idle gesture. it reflects serious foreign policy. why should we assume this stance will shrivel in coming years?

some of your comments belie the substance of what i was offering. in fact, the one thing i wanted to say was the less than elegant declaration by this manny fellow seemed more accurate than some of the replies to his post. read between the lines as i was suggesting wrt to recent events in the east china sea, n korea etc that the asian "pivot" will likely continue. most of the ports you refer to (i think) are nearer to the east china sea than the pi. so if you are suggesting we need a much larger usn presence in asia, than perhaps it would be in japan or korea. i don't really think that is what you are suggesting, but it is the same vein of logic i am reading in your post.

your verbiage obfurep001es my point about the off shore fields as well. configuring the us policy on the scs fields will not only be dependent on the us wanting to be "top cop" (we will) , it will be dependent on the global oil markets and in particular the n american oil market. much of the strategy is based upon global demand and depletion of oil reserves and there is a plausible argument that fracking in general and n america in particular will have a substantial impact on the global peak oil theory within the decade. yes, i know about the asian economies and the shipping lanes and wall street wants stability etc, etc. so if we decide to forward deploy the 3rd fleet with alot more us debt, then i guess the pi might work. but if we do need another base for those jihadists populating indonesia, or chinese migrating southward, what better place than northern australia which geographically, culturally and politically might make more sense?

as for the mindanao area, we certainly don't need another subic bay to support the pi for smallish operations. in that respect, a larger "footprint" might clearly be counterproductive. generally, just about every scenario throughout se asia will be planned for with smaller, faster and more specialized responses, save china or korea. the us is becoming a debtor nation for china and nobody wants an expensive commerce damaging brawl. ok, maybe a few generals, admirals and defense contractors would like that. but budgets and doctrine will i think increasingly shape strategy toward the "less is more" mentality and to that end we don't need another (big) base in the pi.

[Soapy Smith]

Ten years ago deep water was thought to be the solution for world oil and then along came the Bakken. With fracking and directional drilling N Dakota produces more oil than most middle eastern countries and by 2017 the IEA states USA will be the top oil producer ahead of Saudi. Off shore oil fields newly discovered almost seem like a monthly event to anyone following the DW driller markets and with time it's very likely the impact of an undeveloped SCS will have negligible economic and strategic effects, for certain, on US politics.

I am not sure whether to interpret your post as prescriptive or descriptive / empirical. If your concern is that the U.S. ought to avoid yet another entanglement as the world's policeman, I am with you. But setting aside whether the U.S. should get involved, I think the empirical reality is that we are already heavily involved. Protecting the Philippines is not the primary objective, but our Philippine friends do seem to be offering a welcome, and the welcome may fit with other American concerns.

The significance of oil in the region is not that we need it; it is that other large economies need it, including several (Japan, Korea, etc.) that are close allies of the U.S. We are also concerned with international policy circles to keep China in check, and China's oil dependency is one point of leverage the U.S. is unlikely to ignore. Yes, China and Walmart need each other, but other geo-strategic and economic dynamics may keep the U.S. perpetually concerned with keeping up pressure on China.

In addition, South Asia (especially India) and Southeast Asian countries (led by Indonesia) are among the fastest growing economies in the world. American foreign policy and military strategy are shaped by this reality. So it's not just oil that gets shipped through the South China Sea; lots of other kinds of trade flow through the area as well.

Thirteen of the world's 20 busiest ports are either in East or Southeast Asia, and Singapore ranks second only to Shanghai.

http://storymaps.esri.com/stories/2013/ports/

And clearly the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and its members see great strategic importance in Southeast Asia:

http://www.uschamber.com/press/relea...unities-despit

http://www.uschamber.com/internation.../southeastasia

Furthermore, some analysts predict that by 2030 India will surpass Germany as the fifth largest consumer economy in the world. It's already a large exporter of various products. Indonesia is also on a strong upward economic trajectory, and its primary trading partners are Japan, Singapore, and the United States. Other growing economies in Southeast Asia include Vietnam, Brunei, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, and, dare we say it, the Philippines.

The largest Islamic country in the world is in Southeast Asia (Indonesia) , and several other populous countries in the area are predominantly Islamic. So although we may not want to get into armed forays in Muslim areas, and we have no great wish to get bogged down in Muslim Mindanao, the U.S. is also unlikely to turn a blind eye to these areas. I think the notion that we can dispense with global security concerns in the area, while an appealing idea, is simply unlikely to materialize.

The U.S. is likely to continue to play its hand in the arena as long as China continues to play hardball with our allies, whether they be Japan, Korea, or the Philippines:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/...9AR0AH20131128

The Navy's shifting its 50-50 fleet alignment (Pacific to Atlantic) to 60-40 was not an idle gesture. It reflects serious foreign policy. Why should we assume this stance will shrivel in coming years?

[Soapy Smith]

You mean the correct spellings, yeah?

Let's just say the spellings for those whose keyboards appear to lack the letter z, and rarely can leave an o and r alone without tacking a u in between.

[Hutsori]

Based on your British spellings I had assumed you were from the mother country.

You mean the correct spellings, yeah? ;) No matter the nationality a tasty bird is a tasty bird. Same goes for turkey.

Over the years I've had a few Yank Thanksgiving feasts and even a Canucki one. Not bad. Not bad at all.

[Pete Benetar]

Wonderfully succinct.

None of these are cogent reasons for any significant US base in the PI.

Ten years ago deep water was thought to be the solution for world oil and then along came the Bakken. With fracking and directional drilling N Dakota produces more oil than most middle eastern countries and by 2017 the IEA states USA will be the top oil producer ahead of Saudi. Off shore oil fields newly discovered almost seem like a monthly event to anyone following the DW driller markets and with time it's very likely the impact of an undeveloped SCS will have negligible economic and strategic effects, for certain, on US politics.

Where's Zamboanga? I guess if those guys make inroads and manage to take out MOA or hit the embassy there off Roxas that might be a different story. Take your pic on any given African or SW Asian country for reasons to set up yet more US bases since the threat from the southern archipelago there in the PI is almost negligible.

On Korea (ok, I'm just butting in) today you've got Chinese running sorties to meet and greet our guys flying over the "New" air defense zone in the East China Sea. You have a bushy haired never do well with some number of nukes and a penchant for exporting nasty things to guys who really hate the US. If all that's not enough, the guy hangs out with Dennis Rodman.

No doubt we'll end up with some status agreement with the PI and perhaps even a few small leased bases. Korea will remain huge in the US strategic plan; the PI not so much, like it or not. Some messages are said with marginal tact, but maybe valid nonetheless.

[WestCoast1]

The British were glad to see them leave. They didn't like the Pilgrims' version of Puritanism, their rabble-rousing, and their wife-swapping.

Fortunately the Brits have matured. Smile.

[Soapy Smith]

Anyone know of a place doing an American-style Thanksgiving supper tonight in Makati, Pasay or Manila. I can only find a place in Ortigas, and I don't want the travel hassle. Thanks in advance.

Based on your British spellings I had assumed you were from the mother country. Keep in mind that, even though the Pilgrim dinner was ostensibly to celebrate surviving (minus those who didn't) the first harsh year, the Pilgrims and British were equally pleased to be rid of each other. Pilgrims were escaping what they perceived to be British, and before that Dutch, persecution. The British were glad to see them leave. They didn't like the Pilgrims' version of Puritanism, their rabble-rousing, and their wife-swapping. So just be sure you know what you're celebrating.

[Amjeck]

While driving to Makati one evening recently, the taxi driver said that he could take me to plenty of places where women are available for a fee.

He mentioned "The Dormitory", and I recalled that this was the topic of discussion some time ago.

In fact, it was not a dormitory, but a casa in a quiet location. If anyone needs the location, just PM me. It is in Makati, on the boundary with Pasay.

Gangles

Please PM with the specifics, thanks.

[Hutsori]

Anyone know of a place doing an American-style Thanksgiving supper tonight in Makati, Pasay or Manila. I can only find a place in Ortigas, and I don't want the travel hassle. Thanks in advance.

[FreebieFan]

"Maybe you don't know how the fire stations work in the Philippines and who pays what to whom.

Have a read about the self administered fire brigades in Tondo, you will learn something."

No we don't. Can you enlighten us or give us a relevant link? I saw their website it's a volunteer outfit.

Tondo is a predominantly Chinese area. Filipinos consider Filipino Chinese (Tsinoys) to be slightly different and know they are generally more wealthy.

Many years ago, there were some fires in Tondo. Fire brigades manned by Filipinos attended the fire but refused to put them out until payment was made. This continued for some time till the local tongs (groups of tradespeople) announced they could no longer be blackmailed and set their own volunteer fire brigades.

So as not to confuse they painted their fire fighting vehicles a different colour and used smaller veihicles to better negotiate the narrow roads of Tondo.

Quezon city, with a large Tsinoy population also has some sporadic volunteer brigades.

In other cities, dependent on the population mix this can also occur, although its mainly in Manila.

[Gangles]

While driving to Makati one evening recently, the taxi driver said that he could take me to plenty of places where women are available for a fee.

He mentioned "The Dormitory", and I recalled that this was the topic of discussion some time ago.

In fact, it was not a dormitory, but a casa in a quiet location. If anyone needs the location, just PM me. It is in Makati, on the boundary with Pasay.

Gangles

[Fast Eddie 48]

The USA today repoet that Manny Pacquiao own the Philippine government 2. 2 be peso back tax and he have to borrow 1 MIL peso for the Haiyan typhoon relief.

Fast Eddie 48

[MidniteRider]

"Maybe you don't know how the fire stations work in the Philippines and who pays what to whom.

Have a read about the self administered fire brigades in Tondo, you will learn something."

No we don't. Can you enlighten us or give us a relevant link? I saw their website it's a volunteer outfit.

[X Man]

Wonderfully succinct.

If Manny needs further edutainment, let me add that three of the top ten oil importers depend on oil tankers going thru the Malacca Straits. And then traveling north thru the SCS (China to the west / Philippines to the east) to countries Japan, Korea, China.

I would be especially interested in hearing from Manny how the US forces in Korea are valuable and why the US might be there forever. Does Korea subsidize the US forces like Japan does? X.

Well, one of the world's most important shipping lanes is in the South China Sea and the Straits of Malacca.

In the SCS there is.

In Mindanao there's a hot Muslim insurrection. Perhaps you've heard of Zamboanga? Guess not.

[Hutsori]

And why the hell we would we want a military presence in the Phillipines (sic)?

Well, one of the world's most important shipping lanes is in the South China Sea and the Straits of Malacca.

No oil.

In the SCS there is.

No Al qaeda.

In Mindanao there's a hot Muslim insurrection. Perhaps you've heard of Zamboanga? Guess not.