General Info

[The Cane]

The Cane says he benefited substantially by buying at the dip, but has since taken profit. For his situation, that makes sense. There is an opportunity cost to pulling out early, as he would have missed the large run up the last three months. But if he is close to retirement, he might as well cash out some of his positions while he is ahead, because if there is a crash and the market loses say 50 percent of its value, he has less time to wait out the recovery.

You got that right! I can't afford to be taking any massive losses at this time. I did do well by buying at the dip, and got out early. I missed a big run up, but it's OK. Actually, I jumped back in for just a short bit a couple of months ago and rode a nice wave in the DOW up to about 31,458, then I jumped right back out again, taking the profits and no losses. That's what I'm doing. Looking to get in when I see a chance to ride a wave in, then get back out before that wave rolls back out to sea again. A crash is coming, and it's going to be very, very, very ugly. But, I think we still have some time. There's going to be an explosion of economic activity once we get on the other side of this virus. That's a wave I definitely don't want to miss! And I think it will happen in 2022. But after that, look out!

[McAdonis]

3.) It's becoming more and more evident that we will not have an immediate stock market crash the likes of 2008-2011. Rather, the K-shape split of the market seems to be the likely scenario with innovative companies continuing to soar and traditional companies that do not adapt remaining stagnant. So much money flooded into the market this year and with bonds being deemed to be in a definite bubble and interest rates set to stay low for another year or two or three, people have few other places to put their money.

4.) As for retail investors, I'm not sold on their effect on the total market. Institutions still own over 50% of the SP500. To put it in perspective, Robinhood (the most notable millennial retail investor platform) holds $20 billion in investor assets. For comparison, traditional brokers like TD Ameritrade and Charles Schwab hold assets in the trillions of dollars. Basically, these retail investors have the power to move stock prices but no where near enough assets to move entire markets alone.

Are the surging stock market and home prices seem the result of financial engineering by the Fed? All the financial and monetary stimulus and QE that has fueled this "artificial boom" has been going on for some time. The Obama administration doubled public debt. At the time he left office, it sat att $14 trillion. Four years later, the debt now sits at $27 trillion. Borrowing more money to service payments for existing debt is fine "for now". As long as investors are getting paid now, and continue to believe they will paid back in the future, they will keep buying more American debt. But nobody is able to predict if and when investors might lose confidence. American politicians will not commit political suicide by increasing taxes. If debt continues accumulating (which seems like the only likely scenario), and investors lose confidence, they will back off. Then the economy takes a hit, and then even more investors back off, potentially triggering the next global financial crisis.

Does the K-Shape recovery bode well for the politically stability in the future? If you are in your early 20's, you likely did not benefit from the surging stock market and home prices. Perhaps the whites from this younger cohort might benefit down the road if they get some inheritance from their boomer parents. But young Blacks, "Latinx", rustbelt Whites will have been left on the sidelines, and I suspect they may be the ones who will be the powder keg for civil unrest.

If political instability causes Treasury bonds to become riskier assets, it could undermine the entire banking system -- and by extension, every American company and the jobs of the people they employ.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-01-12/how-government-instability-undermines-the-u-s-economy.

Apparently 43 percent of retail investors are trading with leverage. A lot of these retail investors will be the ones who will be hurt the most if the stock market crashes. It seems like Fed has shot all its bullets already, and so the next time there is a crisis, will they be able to come in and save the day? Will the sell-off trigger a domino-effect? If that's the case, the retail investors who joined the party late will be the ones left holding onto a worthless piece of paper, just like every other crash in history. If these retail investors went all-in, and lose their job, only having a few months of cash reserve, they will be the ones forced to sell off their portfolio at a loss. I suppose that only hurts the individual, but what if large swathes of population can't pay off their debts (credit card, car, home, student)? https://finance.yahoo.com/news/43-of...172744302.html.

[Mursenary]

With historically low interest rates and sharp increase of money printing since March 2020, the Fed seems committed to propping up the stock market. Can that go on indefinitely? The influx of novice millennial retail investors in 2020 could be fueling a bubble. Current marketing conditions makes everyone look like a genius, especially millennials who are willing to take more risks. The Cane says he benefited substantially by buying at the dip, but has since taken profit. For his situation, that makes sense. There is an opportunity cost to pulling out early, as he would have missed the large run up the last three months. But if he is close to retirement, he might as well cash out some of his positions while he is ahead, because if there is a crash and the market loses say 50 percent of its value, he has less time to wait out the recovery. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WALCL.I do not know if we are quite at the point of a shoeshine boy being a stock-expert yet, but maybe close: https://www.statista.com/statistics/...-stock-market/.

Right, a monkey could have made money in the stock market this past year and the young people who think it is perennially so easy will be in for a rude awakening. But the market is only a part of the picture that adds to the net worth jump.

1.) Despite all of the talks of people hitting hard times, the average citizens of developed nations have seen a rise in net worth and savings. In the US, the people who lost are the bottom 10-15%. The rest of the nation kept their jobs while many working from home, they saved money, and some invested wisely or were lucky. What's happening in developed nations is just a microcosm of the entire world as the same trend has been seen when comparing poor nations who will feel the economic impact much worse than developed nations.

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/...virus-pandemic

http://Www.dw.com/en/un-covid-19-to-...ons/a-55799928

2.) The continued rise in real estate prices pads the net worth of home owners (65% of households in the US and over 50% in most developed nations). There are some hold outs but it seems that more experts than not predict that home prices will continue to rise due to a lack of inventory in developed nations. With globally low interest rates, the demand will not see a drop in at least a few years where supply can catch up. Either boomers have to die or builders have to rev up production to increase inventory. Perhaps the number of senior citizen covid deaths will contribute to increase inventory?

https://www.forbes.com/sites/brendar...h=3d0ada9f36dc

3.) It's becoming more and more evident that we will not have an immediate stock market crash the likes of 2008-2011. Rather, the K-shape split of the market seems to be the likely scenario with innovative companies continuing to soar and traditional companies that do not adapt remaining stagnant. So much money flooded into the market this year and with bonds being deemed to be in a definite bubble and interest rates set to stay low for another year or two or three, people have few other places to put their money.

4.) As for retail investors, I'm not sold on their effect on the total market. Institutions still own over 50% of the SP500. To put it in perspective, Robinhood (the most notable millennial retail investor platform) holds $20 billion in investor assets. For comparison, traditional brokers like TD Ameritrade and Charles Schwab hold assets in the trillions of dollars. Basically, these retail investors have the power to move stock prices but no where near enough assets to move entire markets alone.

https://www.businessofapps.com/data/...od-statistics/

For most of the people who visit this forum, unless they are small business owners in the wrong sector, they probably saw a jump in net worth whether or not they benefited from stock market gains. The reality is that most people are white collar wage earners that probably did not suffer much economically in 2020.

(I'm no financial guru. Most of what I wrote was just regurgitated from YouTube talking heads.).

[McAdonis]

The big conglomerates are making a killing off Covid19 and are raking in the profits.

Just look at the list of billionaires that is growing every day. US billionaires have had a $1,1 trillion windfall from Covid19: https://www.theguardian.com/business...covid-pandemic.

Even before CV19, tech companies like Amazon were predicted to be big winners due to automation and AI. CV19 only accelerated that trend. This is precisely the reason why the article you posted talks about how to tax and regulate these big tech companies. And if that happens, then your Jeff Bezos of the world will see a huge dent in their net worth. Zuckerberg had a phenomenal 2019 and 2020, but he also lost $18 billion in 2018. If these billionaires were conspiring together, then was that "2018 loss" just staged? During 2020, many billionaires (oil, retail, hotel magnates) saw huge decreases in their net worth, one being Carlos Slim who at one time was the richest man in the world. https://www.lovemoney.com/gallerylis...-the-past-year.

Big conglomerates eh? I recall a series of posts here where a handful of people said that they saw their net worth grow substantially during COVID19. I certainly have seen a 100% increase in investment value myself. Anyone else here part of the big conglomerate elite conspiracy?

With historically low interest rates and sharp increase of money printing since March 2020, the Fed seems committed to propping up the stock market. Can that go on indefinitely? The influx of novice millennial retail investors in 2020 could be fueling a bubble. Current marketing conditions makes everyone look like a genius, especially millennials who are willing to take more risks. The Cane says he benefited substantially by buying at the dip, but has since taken profit. For his situation, that makes sense. There is an opportunity cost to pulling out early, as he would have missed the large run up the last three months. But if he is close to retirement, he might as well cash out some of his positions while he is ahead, because if there is a crash and the market loses say 50 percent of its value, he has less time to wait out the recovery. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WALCL.

The prevailing investment style of the predominantly Gen-Z and Millennials is to buy momentum stocks. This entails finding a fast-moving stock and jumping on the bandwagon. The key is to pop off before the stock falls. It's like picking up dollar bills in front of a moving steamroller. You can scoop up a lot of money, but if you make one misstep, you'll be run over and squished like a bug.

For the most part, the novice investors are fearless. Why shouldn't they be? From the March Covid-19 lows, the stock market has rebounded about 70%. All they know is that stocks always go up. Scores of newly minted, self-taught traders are buying stocks and quickly selling to lock in profits and collaborate with each other on sites, such as Reddit, TikTok and Discord.

There's also the question of whether the active traders are colluding together, in what used to be called a pump-and-dump scheme.

According to their self-reported results, it looks like the amateur traders are handily beating the pros and taking great delight in that fact. The investment strategy is simple and straightforward: "respect the pump" or "I see a stock going up and I buy it. Then, I watch it until it stops going up and I sell it." Old-fashioned concepts like studying balance sheets, profit and loss statements and researching price-to-earnings ratios are ignored.

It will be interesting to see how long this trend continues. In past bull markets, we've seen regular everyday people become day traders. It lasted until the market corrected or crashed.

On Reddit, a thread started with the question, Is the fact that there are now countless TikTok influencers giving stock advice a concern for anyone else? The Redditor added, As the saying goes, be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful."

He forewarns, TikTok now contains hundreds of accounts of kids giving advice on trading, really leaning toward getting out of the market for a while. This feels like the epitome of the shoeshine boy giving stock advice.

This refers to the story of Joe Kennedy, the father of President John F. Kennedy and shrewd Wall Street investor known for his questionable practices. He famously got out of the stock market just before the Great Depression and stock market crash when the kid who shined his shoes started giving the elder Kennedy stock tips. He figured if even a shoeshine boy was into the stock market, everyone else was too and there was nowhere for it go, but down.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jackkelly/2021/01/25/freewheeling-millennials-and-gen-zers-are-starting-a-new-side-hustle-career-aggressively-trading-stocks-online-minting-money-and-showing-up-the-wall-street-pros/?sh=70c0bdb27b9e

I do not know if we are quite at the point of a shoeshine boy being a stock-expert yet, but maybe close: https://www.statista.com/statistics/...-stock-market/.

[Mursenary]

The big conglomerates are making a killing off Covid19 and are raking in the profits.

Just look at the list of billionaires that is growing every day. US billionaires have had a $1,1 trillion windfall from Covid19: https://www.theguardian.com/business...covid-pandemic.

It's mostly the small independent businesses (hint; FKK clubs + the girls working in these clubs) like restaurants, gyms, bars who do not have good political connections for a bail out, that are paying the heavy price.

Big conglomerates eh? I recall a series of posts here where a handful of people said that they saw their net worth grow substantially during COVID19. I certainly have seen a 100% increase in investment value myself. Anyone else here part of the big conglomerate elite conspiracy?

[HammerTime96]

If you really think that the mongers here have some leverage on the political decisions then you're totally paranoid. As for Big Pharma (and Georges Soros, the Deep State, Bill Gates, Israel and so on), their interest would be to have more people contaminated since they sell the vaccine. More sick people=more money. So they would advocate for a reopening of every public place. Where is the logic in all of this?

The big conglomerates are making a killing off Covid19 and are raking in the profits.

Just look at the list of billionaires that is growing every day. US billionaires have had a $1,1 trillion windfall from Covid19: https://www.theguardian.com/business...covid-pandemic.

It's mostly the small independent businesses (hint; FKK clubs + the girls working in these clubs) like restaurants, gyms, bars who do not have good political connections for a bail out, that are paying the heavy price.

[BigBuddy69]

Want to go mongering in Germany in 2021? Forget about it, and probably forget about 2022 as well! Don't forget to thank the usual suspects (working for Big Pharma!) & scaremongers on this forum!.

If you really think that the mongers here have some leverage on the political decisions then you're totally paranoid. As for Big Pharma (and Georges Soros, the Deep State, Bill Gates, Israel and so on), their interest would be to have more people contaminated since they sell the vaccine. More sick people=more money. So they would advocate for a reopening of every public place. Where is the logic in all of this?

[Sirioja]

How many FKK clubs have already declared insolvency after the harassment by police and now the Corona GeStaPo is anyone's guess, and this will only be visible when (or if) the sex clubs reopen again. People here prefer to stick their heads in the sand.

So far, the standard that Germany uses to decide on lockdowns has been the number of infections per 100 k inhabitants over the last 7 days, the so-called "Inzidenzwert. " ('incident value') Is this number above 50 per 100000 then Germany continues to be in a lockdown, event hough locally, this value might be way below 50.

Recent political moves indicate that Merkel (in a very controversial move) now wants to lower this 'Incident Value' to 35, and there are even voices in the media (quoting "scientists" that are on the government's payroll) that are speculating that the number should be reduced to as low as 10.

In German, try running this through Google Translate for those that can't read German: https://www.mdr.de/nachrichten/polit...kdown-100.html.

In English: https://www.thelocal.de/20210212/mer...tions-february (notice how the State Media is giving this a positive spin).

https://www.thelocal.de/20210128/ger...-since-october.

Even under very strict lockdown since Christmas, much more strict than in France or Italy or Spain, but Germany is much suffering under second wave than under first wave when they managed not bad at this past time, and I m pretty sure UK, south African and Brazilian variants are already in Germany which even thought to buy sputnik which is not allowed at the moment in France, to get more vaccine, but did Russians give all information's about sputnik? To get medical allowance. They didn't yet in France. I agree to try to save life rather than thinking about brothels which are risky places for virus spreading. Maybe warmer weather will help for a while, organisms making more vitamin Di under sun and warm, like on last Summer.

[Sirioja]

When Wengen. Ch legendary Lauberhorn where racers go for more than 160 km / h, was cancelled because cluster in Wengen after Christmas and Sylvester, when only short Kandahar, not real one, in Garmisch. De, only Kitzbhel. At with amazing last vault on first race, really wish Swiss Urs Krienbuhl will be fine after such scary fall, when Kvitfjell should be cancelled when Norway forbid foreigners even with negative test, but when Cortina is really wonderful with Tofane all around and what a great super giant race on Thursday with amazing vault after 20 seconds, first, Walder. At jumped 55 meters long, then giant specialist Losee Meillard couldn't turn after vault, 3 first racers were out, couldn't turn right, when they are best skiers in the world, I just laugh when I hear about sport in gym, when these guys jump 50 meters and as soon they land, they have to turn sharp, but the best specialist, Krichmayer. At won the race, so, kind of logical, even on a extreme race and despite under covid, when Inerhoffer. It was disappointing. Today should be great women downhill with amazing Tofane vault, and tomorrow for men on same slope than super giant. Great slopes and point of view all around for Cortina for world championships. Also today, race climbing through forest to chalet Raynard Mont Ventoux, nice, will make stars in my eyes, looking forward going again, like every Summer since 2004. If can t ski in France on this Winter, but wish when Summer season will start, maybe for Tignes grande motte and 2 Alps, then I could cross Girose glacier, needing to push for more than 1 hour at 3500 meters high, to open and clean my lungs and warm my legs which burn, for next climbing, and want to try for Klein Matterhorn Zermatt. Ch but from Breuil Cervinia. It, dreaming about the extreme run through forbidden lines in Switzerland, slaloming between crevaces and below the big rock. When You feel alive, full of adrenaline, when at the bottom, looking at your line marked in snow, then You made your day happy. I like to make my days being enjoyment.

After 3 first guys were out after 25 seconds, then other guys heard from trainers: slow down before vault, some were lost when they always heard since they started to ski: push, faster, so didn't know how to slow, some becoming too slow not jumping at all, had to be able to adapt. Today, no jump on Tofane vault for girls, maybe because too many racers, girls and guys, were broken on this Winter, when more difficult to prepare under covid. But really beautiful Cortina. Wait for guys downhill tomorrow.

[HammerTime96]

The German FKK sex clubs have been closed down because of health reasons. In addition to the corona virus, some FKK clubs, such as FKK Artemis, have issues with matters of trafficking of women, tax evasion, and an association with organized crime.

How many FKK clubs have already declared insolvency after the harassment by police and now the Corona GeStaPo is anyone's guess, and this will only be visible when (or if) the sex clubs reopen again. People here prefer to stick their heads in the sand.

So far, the standard that Germany uses to decide on lockdowns has been the number of infections per 100 k inhabitants over the last 7 days, the so-called "Inzidenzwert. " ('incident value') Is this number above 50 per 100000 then Germany continues to be in a lockdown, event hough locally, this value might be way below 50.

Recent political moves indicate that Merkel (in a very controversial move) now wants to lower this 'Incident Value' to 35, and there are even voices in the media (quoting "scientists" that are on the government's payroll) that are speculating that the number should be reduced to as low as 10.

In German, try running this through Google Translate for those that can't read German: https://www.mdr.de/nachrichten/polit...kdown-100.html.

In English: https://www.thelocal.de/20210212/mer...tions-february (notice how the State Media is giving this a positive spin).

https://www.thelocal.de/20210128/ger...-since-october

In other words: the bar that is used to justify lockdowns is continually being lowered, leading to permanent lockdowns. In addition you can add to this the enormously slow and bureaucratic manner with which Germany is vaccinating people, then another lockdown from autumn of 2021 until spring 2022 is almost guaranteed. Merkel already publicly stated that "there will be no new freedoms until enough people have been vaccinated, and it is clear that the virus can not be spread through people who have already been vaccinated. " https://youtu.be/SNqW1t9C18Q (make sure to activate auto-generated translation in the subtitles).

By the way, the irony is that this value of "50 per 100 k" dates back to March 2020, because "50" was the supposedly the maximum number where authorities could still manage to conduct contact tracing. Why haven't more people been recruited to trace contacts in case of an infection, so that the economy can be reopened sooner!? Why does this number now suddenly have to be reduced to 35? Isn't the economy bankrupt enough already?

Want to go mongering in Germany in 2021? Forget about it, and probably forget about 2022 as well! Don't forget to thank the usual suspects (working for Big Pharma!) & scaremongers on this forum!

Scroll all the way to the bottom: https://www.thelocal.de/20210127/ger...id-19-lockdown.

Stage 1: Incidence is stable below 25 for seven days.

Contact restrictions: Up to 10 people from several households are to be allowed to meet again.

Schools: There shall be unrestricted regular activities there again.

Universities: Face-to-face lectures for first-year students in groups are to be allowed. Classroom exams are to take place under hygiene regulations, but without a limit on the number of participants.

Hospitality: Bars and pubs should be allowed to reopen. However, guests must have fixed seats and provide their contact details. A hygiene concept is to be required. Should the incidence remain stable below 25 beyond the seven days, the 10pm curfew will be lifted.

Leisure: Theatres, concert halls and cinemas are to be allowed to open to the general public, albeit with limited numbers of people. Libraries can be used again under hygiene conditions, as well as amusement parks.

Notice how under "hospitality" and "sport" it still has tons of restrictions, making FKK clubbing either impossible or undesirable.

[Sirioja]

Apparently the Cortina run is a disaster. Like one natural turn with the environment. The rest is would be giant slalom down a straight run. I don't know, but it didn't sound so promising. Maybe the cameramen manage to make it look somewhat fun still.

When Wengen. Ch legendary Lauberhorn where racers go for more than 160 km / h, was cancelled because cluster in Wengen after Christmas and Sylvester, when only short Kandahar, not real one, in Garmisch. De, only Kitzbühel. At with amazing last vault on first race, really wish Swiss Urs Krienbuhl will be fine after such scary fall, when Kvitfjell should be cancelled when Norway forbid foreigners even with negative test, but when Cortina is really wonderful with Tofane all around and what a great super giant race on Thursday with amazing vault after 20 seconds, first, Walder. At jumped 55 meters long, then giant specialist Loïsee Meillard couldn't turn after vault, 3 first racers were out, couldn't turn right, when they are best skiers in the world, I just laugh when I hear about sport in gym, when these guys jump 50 meters and as soon they land, they have to turn sharp, but the best specialist, Krichmayer. At won the race, so, kind of logical, even on a extreme race and despite under covid, when Inerhoffer. It was disappointing. Today should be great women downhill with amazing Tofane vault, and tomorrow for men on same slope than super giant. Great slopes and point of view all around for Cortina for world championships. Also today, race climbing through forest to chalet Raynard Mont Ventoux, nice, will make stars in my eyes, looking forward going again, like every Summer since 2004. If can t ski in France on this Winter, but wish when Summer season will start, maybe for Tignes grande motte and 2 Alps, then I could cross Girose glacier, needing to push for more than 1 hour at 3500 meters high, to open and clean my lungs and warm my legs which burn, for next climbing, and want to try for Klein Matterhorn Zermatt. Ch but from Breuil Cervinia. It, dreaming about the extreme run through forbidden lines in Switzerland, slaloming between crevaces and below the big rock. When You feel alive, full of adrenaline, when at the bottom, looking at your line marked in snow, then You made your day happy. I like to make my days being enjoyment.

[Pistons]

Tomorrow, wish for Garmisch Partenkirchen legendary Kandahar, to dream a bit, before wonderful Cortina Ampezzo with Tofane for world championships.

Apparently the Cortina run is a disaster. Like one natural turn with the environment. The rest is would be giant slalom down a straight run. I don't know, but it didn't sound so promising. Maybe the cameramen manage to make it look somewhat fun still.

[Sirioja]

Tomorrow, wish for Garmisch Partenkirchen legendary Kandahar, to dream a bit, before wonderful Cortina Ampezzo with Tofane for world championships.

[TonyMontanaaO7]

The German FKK sex clubs have been closed down because of health reasons. In addition to the corona virus, some FKK clubs, such as FKK Artemis, have issues with matters of trafficking of women, tax evasion, and an association with organized crime.

[Sirioja]

When clubs open or about escorts, nothing changed for me about covid, even being over 50, but kissing girls. My only question is: where are beauties, where is quality, because I hate to waste my money for average. Had many pretty girls on 2020 which was not so bad, even not many pretty escorts now in Paris, unfortunately, but I was happy with my last, really charming Ukrainian who seduced me with her behavior, and after more complicated now about safety job when I have to work in the cold on the field, I would lose too much money waiting to be paid by french government and would lose my activity, ski Worldcup and a discount shopping week end, I should return to enjoy her, but Garmisch Partenkirchen famous Kandahar men downhill on next Saturday, before wonderful Cortina Ampezzo with Tofane, majectic Dolomiti for world championships, when looking forward my own ski, most important for me on this Winter, I need to ski.