General Reports

[Downandup]

Read the story here as it's absolutely not certain that this will actually happen: https://thepattayanews.com/2020/06/0...pubs-and-bars/.

[Sky Ryder]

I have been chomping at the bit to enjoy a few days of playing golf and female companionship in the LOS for sometime now. I have been in contact with the agency that normally takes care of the bookings, etc and finally today got some kind of info. While I cannot vouch for the veracity of the info, the answer to my "when" question was they are not expecting to be able to accommodate foreign guests prior to 4 Q of this year. I have inquired about going to Vietnam or Cambodia, but it appears no one wants to be the first. I guess we will see!

[MonkeyPaw]

I really hate doing this over and and over again. I've talked with countless of people, and they say from what they heard from the government or what they read, it's not too bad for Thailand. My response is when talking about current situation, imagine it's just like ISG. Avoid those who wear rose colored glasses. Always being optimistic just because, but give you no rationale. They will say "Thailand always recovers." Yeah, but when? And how? And what about other countries since we are talking about international issues affecting Thai people which depends on international dollars.

1. Lots of supposed sex-perts just giving a bunch of opinions.

2. Look at the credentials of who is giving you the opinion.

3. On the ground reporting and in the action supersedes should be the most trusted and look at #2.

Thailand's economy is projected be the worse drop amongst all Asian countries. Thailand is fucked. Why because I am on the ground and I can see the decline and hopelessness in Pattaya. The opening of businesses is doing little to help in Pattaya. For this month, the expenses will be greater than any revenue. It's like opening a restaurant and having little or no customers. You fire staff, and make the few left behind work more, longer, and harder. The service and quality will go down because of tired staff, but you will charge a the same or a higher price because you are short on money. Rent and utilities will be due That is a recipe for doom, but especially on a greater scale. Beach opens in Pattaya. Lots of people, but very few rent chairs or buy from vendors because they like "free. " They bring their own mats and food and leave behind mess and trash. The cost to clean and maintain will be greater than the revenue coming in from opening the beach. The value of the Thai baht is going up, which makes no sense due to state of economy. It's a paradox and that means being manipulated by insider trading and corruption. Your economy is sinking but baht goes up and prices stay same. Not a good recipe. Also as the USA struggles, so will the world and Thailand.

https://thethaiger.com/hot-news/econ...n-soaring-baht

https://pattayaone.news/state-of-eco...lly-estimated/

[MichaelSamuel]

Do any of our governments have much credibility now? The US government response was awful. CDC has been blending antibody tests with covid tests to increase the test numbers. The US government reponse to protestors is at best equal to China's in HK, but in reality probably worse, even China never brought the troops in from Shenzen during last summer and didn't do low helo flyovers of the protestors. I am not a fan of Xi, but he also didn't tear gas and assault his people to take a photo.

Anyway my point is that credibility is out the window for most of the world's governments. Reality is China is the biggest tourism customer for Thailand so they are going to be focus for the TAT. This doesn't even consider the economic links and military links Thailand has with the PRC. I suspect Japan and Korea will be next in line.

As far as the US goes most of the world may wait on the sidelines until November and the Trump issue is decided. There is simply no reason for anyone else to make commitments before then. You also have the factor that all of the world's governments that have international tourism cash outflows would rather keep their people locked in and force that money to stay at home than go abroad. Thailand which has a huge tourism trade surplus is even promoting to their own people to spend in country and not abroad. In the states you have always seen this even at a local level with restricted roads between states or municipalities to try to direct tourism dollars to stay local.

The correct academic approach to this is that for any country that has a tourism trade surplus is to get that flowing as quickly as possible through incentive programs and ease of travel, with a possible move also to restrict your own people to increase that gap. Japan I would think has a deficit but is already announced an incentive program to restart foreign tourism. Without knowing what numbers the TAT is operating on you basically have to assign a value to each countries tourist which would be how much they bring in less their cost and then multiply by average count. Due to raw volume China is clearly #1 even if they only spent 2000 THB a day. This would be the same for Japan and Korea due to numbers. Then you get into "quality" tourists that spend a lot more on average but have smaller numbers like UK, US, AUS. They may beat out India based on the large difference in daily spend. However even that can be manipulated with Visa requirements, like enforcing the provisions to prove a certain cash amount and hotel reservations which would filter out the bottom half of a given population.

Also to be clear this is what every government does or is likely to do. In the USA my PRC friend's visa for 10 years was less than $300, now to do the extension for another 6 months since they can't get a flight home is going to cost near $500. Come spend your money, but do it quickly and leave, if you want to stay is going to cost you a lot more.

No one would understand that China is one of the first countries to which borders are open when the epidemic comes from home and especially that it took a long time before taking sanitary measures and alerting WHO, that during this time Chinese travelers spread the virus all over the world and the information and figures given by the government since then appear to be truncated or even false.

On this issue, the Chinese government no longer has much credibility now.

[Pimpampoumpipo]

"Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's administration remains cautious towards softening the restrictions any time soon on China as any early reopening could trigger a backlash from the United States, which has been critical of the mainland's handling of the disease, the report said."

No one would understand that China is one of the first countries to which borders are open when the epidemic comes from home and especially that it took a long time before taking sanitary measures and alerting WHO, that during this time Chinese travelers spread the virus all over the world and the information and figures given by the government since then appear to be truncated or even false.

On this issue, the Chinese government no longer has much credibility now.

[LittleBigMan]

Good article June 1st, regarding International travel to Thailand on Bloomberg " Travel bubble " I hoping this is wrong but down deep it is pretty much I think will happen when it comes to USA Britain and Europe that bubble is the end of the year at best?

[LittleBigMan]

The reverse could also happen to the USA. I wonder if Thailand will restrict the United States travelers, so they don't piss off the Chinese and now Hong Kong.

https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand...ntries-yomiuri

"Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's administration remains cautious towards softening the restrictions any time soon on China as any early reopening could trigger a backlash from the United States, which has been critical of the mainland's handling of the disease, the report said."

As I noted there will be politics involved how much is anyone's guess? When it comes to traveling I feel it is near the bottom of the list the Thai leaders will tiptoe the best they can until a real decision is made? My gut when it comes to the USA With all the things going on if the numbers spike the decision for Thailand is pretty easy even without China interference. The last week China seems to have gone from let's play together to just throwing in the towel and doubling down on their position with Hong Kong and the retraction on phase one of the trade agreement things are starting to heat up.

Outside of this, I continue to keep my option open and track Airline for personal reasons. If my research is correct this might be a factor to consider even when things open back up whether one will travel especially when so much conversation is about prices?

Outside of your post in general, I have been tracking flights and cost it should be noted if one origination point is from Bangkok the price has always been higher than if you originate from the West coast of the USA.

Evaair, in Feb the price for a round trip from BKK-SFO was 23,000 baht, for Sept, that was the same for Feb 2021. April 1st the price went to 37,000 baht. Last night I checked for Sept it has gone to 57,000 baht for Feb it is still at 37,000 baht but it is still too early I suspect it will go up to 57,000 as time goes by. I notice flights are also being cut.

Alternative Airline Cathay BKK-HK-SFO September is at 22,000 baht, and Feb is at 30,000 but I suspect these prices are going to be going up pretty soon. I like Eva but Cathay is also a good choice to SFO I've read the fine print and thinking of making the purchase for Feb 2021 to lock in the price even if I need to cancel and paid the fee I still come out ahead. I understand posters are going to look at this and say too early so and so on and on I fully understand so don't take what I've noted too seriously it is just a pattern.

As for trips coming from the USA SFO / BKK I noticed Eva, in Feb 2020 price was 650 USD now it is 1000 USD.

[EihTooms]

Okie dokey. I am glad we agree on something outside of girls and Thai cuisine.

Girls and Thai cuisine are a fine gourmet mix. Of course, China's lies and mishandling of it are the first deadly sin. But what happened next cannot be dismissed either. It's something akin to a presumed good guy, let's say a cop with a uniform and a badge, assuring you that known (to him) thief isn't really trying to rob you, just relax, he's a friend, doing good work, all while he's going through your jacket searching for your wallet.

As bad as the thief is and he is definitely the perp, the lie that cop told you square in the face arguably caused more harm to you than if he'd just kept his mouth shut. Not to mention how about him instead warning you that guy is a known thief and probably trying to rob you before he gets your wallet, your phone and your Ray Bans.

[Member #4698]

No, Natty, not one word of what you wrote is a "quote" from my post. I didn't excuse China from anything.

Okie dokey. Have it your way. China is to blame for the world wide pandemic. I am glad we agree on something outside of girls and Thai cuisine .

[PedroMorales]

This video was uploaded today about the service you can expect in the Monkey House.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-AB2WAtsAAg

[MonkeyPaw]

Sounds great but lots of restrictions have already been lifted and even though restaurants are open social distancing makes for a somewhat odd experience with either Plexiglas partitions or sitting some distance away from your dinner companion (s) required.

If bars are allowed to reopen one imagines there will something similar in place making go go's unworkable but guess just got to wait and see how it goes.

Seems also likely it will not be completely back to normal for visitors with a country by country lifting depending on status of pandemic in originating country, possibly certificates of being virus free, perhaps insurance cover and whatever else they can dream up.

The economy is really hurting so expediency may diminish some of the silly nonsense that the uniforms keep introducing.

Hope so I miss the buzz and need to find some strange in the not too distant future. Regulars are fine but one does tired of the same old same old.

Like I said previously, the tourists traps will likely remain closed until the tourists come back. Question is when is that with the world falling apart. And before you say it's fine or looks better wherever you are at. Remember, it does matter what happens across the other side of the globe. So we were wrong about the price of tea in China not mattering. Now we know it even matters about what's being sold in a wet market in Wuhan. Anyways, just because it's a bar, restaurant, club, massage shop has little to do with opening. Was it a tourist trap? Hooters was allowed to open weeks ago. And yet it remains shut down, not even offering to go orders. What does that say?

[MonkeyPaw]

I agree it is just too soon to project that things are just going to open particularly with International travel. I would love to be wrong when it comes to the freedom to travel. There are many announcements read between the lines, words like " hint " when it does open expect a ton of strings attached especially with foreigners.

The reverse could also happen to the USA. I wonder if Thailand will restrict the United States travelers, so they don't piss off the Chinese and now Hong Kong.

https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand...ntries-yomiuri

"Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's administration remains cautious towards softening the restrictions any time soon on China as any early reopening could trigger a backlash from the United States, which has been critical of the mainland's handling of the disease, the report said."

[LittleBigMan]

Natty,

Pattaya News has a very different take on the situation, dealing with what was actually said rather than the Chinese whispers on social media.

https://thepattayanews.com/2020/05/2...ng-july-first/

Their view is only work permit holders will be allowed from 1 July and will have to conform to ongoing restrictions (14 day quarantine at travellers expense in a state approved facility, USD100,000 medical cover for COVID-19). Their "best guess" is easing of travel for mere mortals will be "mid fall" if there is no spike in cases.

I agree it is just too soon to project that things are just going to open particularly with International travel. I would love to be wrong when it comes to the freedom to travel. There are many announcements read between the lines, words like " hint " when it does open expect a ton of strings attached especially with foreigners.

[Bam Boom Bam]

https://www.traveloffpath.com/thaila...-need-to-know/

[Member #4698]

I was lucky to finish my February-March 2020 trip, which was great. I've already given up on my October-November 2020 trip and consider my January-February 2021 trip to be in jeopardy. Everything is dependent on the availability of a successful vaccine. Airplanes are like petri dishes, I won't get in one until I have been vaccinated.

It is the luck of the draw. If I had only scheduled my original April 2020 trip to have begun 6 weeks earlier I might have just arrived in LOS before the international travel quarantine was put into effect. I would have been stuck inside of Thailand with the Memphis Blues again. Ha Ha. I think I would have enjoyed that.

Oh, the ragman he draws circles
Up and down the block.
I'd ask him what the matter was
But I know that he don't talk.

And the ladies treat me kindly
And they furnish me with tape
But deep inside my heart
I know I can't escape.

Oh, Mama, can this really be the end.
To be stuck inside of Mobile with the Memphis blues again.

-Dylan.