General Reports

[Turgid]

......Those with a healthy $ availability will flourish, those with minimal $ will flounder......

Same same as before covid?

[Rodwint2]

Which I don't get because it is already hot in places like Brazil and Philippines. How is it behaving there?

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/20/sout...-show-why.html

Poor countries like Mexico, PI and Brazil are in denial. Not even reporting infections or death rates accurately. They don't care primarily because they have no money to treat any sick person anyway. One of the reasons the US has totally shut down border with Mexico. Only commercial traffic coming through.

[Pimpampoumpipo]

I would also imagine that the gov along with many Thais would love to get rid of the what they consider eyesores, and that is the GoGos and the farang P4 P scene.

Admittedly. But it will also be necessary for the girls to stop being forced to provide for the needs of their entire family and for the men to start working in the provinces. A production of local goods or services will have to manage to emerge a middle class. This is not excluded of course but not for some time and certainly not in a collapsed and recessionary global economy.

On the other hand, the cultural and moral traditions in South East Asia are not as punitive regarding P4P as those of the Christian West.

I don't know if Gogos bars will survive but P4 P still has a bright future, it may have to reinvent itself.

[Pimpampoumpipo]

today there is no way things can be shut down until a vaccine is found.

Until a vaccine is found, a treatment designed specifically for the coronavirus or collective immunity (impossible to obtain with the lockdown).

So not for many months. Maybe at least 1 year.

Difficult for world economies to wait until then because it will be necessary to choose between contracting the coronavirus and to die of hunger in particular in the emerging economies.

We will have to live and return to our occupations with this active virus for several months I think. No doubt with new behaviors such as social distancing or the wearing of masks.

[Franciscass]

Sweden's Covid deaths 1,540 (15.1 deaths per 100 k of population). Compare this to the neighbours:

Norway 165 deaths (3. 1 / 100 k).

Finland 94 deaths (1. 7 / 100 k).

Denmark 355 deaths (6. 1 / 100 k).

Source: Johns Hopkins University Coronavirus Resource Center https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality.

Does it really look like it worked?

I have always admired the Swedish social model and to be honest I am surprised at their laissez faire approach.

I agree with you.

If using how many people die from the virus as the yardstick, when compared to similar countries the data shows Sweden has failed and continues to fail with no end in sight.

Covid 19 is highly contagious and until either an effective therapy or a vaccine is found if deaths are to be minimized transmission has to be effectively contained. This can only be done by social distancing, testing and the other measures in place most everywhere else.

[Mr Enternational]

Some say that the summer will bring about a "burning out" of the virus and the immunities built up by those already infected.

Which I don't get because it is already hot in places like Brazil and Philippines. How is it behaving there?

[Goatscrot]

Stickman weekly makes some interesting points on the future of the bar sector of the scene. He reports:

1 - Seven NEP bars have quit and handed back the keys already. They are London Calling (actually closed pre-Covid), Mandarin (closed pre-lockdown), Lollipop, and all four Rainbow bars. He also questions how many other bars can keep paying the rent whilst closed, and will landlords seek to re-purpose their portfolio of premises to non-P4 P and "persuade" those bars that still operate to surrender their leases?

2 - One bar owner has openly admitted that even if restrictions are relaxed in May he won't be opening because the custom just won't be there. The potential business from Expats only would not cover the additional costs (staff, utilities, etc.) of opening.

3 - For those hoping for an influx of herds of young office girls desperate to make the rent having been laid off, think again. By far the majority would go down the Thai P4 P scene rather than the farang / East Asian.

Yep, it isn't going to be pretty for mongers in LOS. I would also imagine that the gov along with many Thais would love to get rid of the what they consider eyesores, and that is the GoGos and the farang P4 P scene. Especially in the capital city. GoGo bars are an easy target as are the oily massage parlors. Soapies have been dead in the water for years as Thai businessmen no longer frequent them. The gov will use this as a way to finally rid BKK of the sexpat and sex tourist. Regulations will be put in place that make it impossible for many of these places to re-open, even if they can withstand the lockdown financially. The scene will migrate online even more and as you stated the gals that can attract local men will have nothing to do with foreigners. The future for foreign P4 P in Thailand, Bangkok especially, is pretty bleak. Anyone who thinks otherwise is deluding themselves. As far as P4 P goes, I would imagine Angeles City and Jakarta will see few changes coming out of this. HK will be the same as well.

[Rodwint2]

There are all kinds of predictions of what to expect in terms of this epidemic. Some say that the summer will bring about a "burning out" of the virus and the immunities built up by those already infected. Others say that a resurgence will bring about an autumn outbreak that will mimic the "Spanish Flu" that will kill even more people. Speculation of an effective vaccine being produced will save humanity before the end of the year.

All this uncertainty is what is driving the economic decisions on the stock markets around the world and the business decisions by small business owners who will have to decide whether to call it quits or try to stick it out. All governments around the world either understand these facts and make the best decisions possible. Those that fail to comprehend these facts will make decisions that will have disastrous effects on their respective economies and citizens. That is how the real world works. What happens in Thailand is heavily dependent on the decisions that this government makes in the next 10 months. Add to the mix of the situation is how the rest of Southeast Asia handles their own situations. If no man is an island, then even more so for the communities and countries that make up the nations of the world.

So what is the point I am trying to make? It is going to be a wild ride politically and economically for every person on the planet. People will have to live with the uncertainty until the "war" with this virus is won or loss. A "win" is a quick discovery of a vaccine. That will be like the polio vaccine in the 1950's. The scientists who develop the first effective vaccine will be the Jonas Salk of this era. A "loss" would be a resurgence this fall that kills tens of millions like the "Spanish Flu".

[Stykler]

With all the talk on the forum lately I just have one contribution as to how things will pan out. Those with a healthy $ availability will flourish, those with minimal $ will flounder. Additionally, things will eventually get back to normal (whatever that is) but it will take some time.

[Smoothy]

Sweden's Covid deaths 1,540 (15.1 deaths per 100 k of population). Compare this to the neighbours:

Norway 165 deaths (3. 1 / 100 k).

Finland 94 deaths (1. 7 / 100 k).

Denmark 355 deaths (6. 1 / 100 k).

Source: Johns Hopkins University Coronavirus Resource Center https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality.

Does it really look like it worked?

There is no way to know if it worked or not yet. By completely locking a country down, they are prolonging the spread of the virus. Eventually it will spread. Sweden will build up an immune herd faster than these other countries.

The theory is that in the end, they will all be about equal with the exception being that the countries that went into lockdown destroyed their economies.

[GettingFedUp]

Take note of Sweden's approach. They are the only advanced Western Nation that did not go into lockdown. Their government trusted their people to act rationally and in their own best interests. It may have worked.

Sweden's Covid deaths 1,540 (15.1 deaths per 100 k of population). Compare this to the neighbours:

Norway 165 deaths (3. 1 / 100 k).

Finland 94 deaths (1. 7 / 100 k).

Denmark 355 deaths (6. 1 / 100 k).

Source: Johns Hopkins University Coronavirus Resource Center https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality.

Does it really look like it worked?

[Franciscass]

It's a balance between lives lost and livelihoods. No matter when a country begins to lift restrictions the virus will continue to be infectious and deadly and people will get sick and some will die. The experts say the smart time to ease is when the infections rate drops below 1 that means each infected persons infects less than one other. Until this happens the virus is not sufficiently contained. The key to knowing when this is happening is testing, something with the exception of a few countries is woefully inadequate particularly in the US and UK. The metric to know how good testing is is not many tests but how many tests per capita. When to reopen should be left to science and health experts like Dr Fauci in the US and not to populist politicians who care more about being reelected that the well being of the citizenry and who were criminally negligent in downplaying the virus when it first reared it's ugly head.

[GettingFedUp]

The scene will not return to normal normal until a vaccine is made widely available to all.

Stickman weekly makes some interesting points on the future of the bar sector of the scene. He reports:

1 - Seven NEP bars have quit and handed back the keys already. They are London Calling (actually closed pre-Covid), Mandarin (closed pre-lockdown), Lollipop, and all four Rainbow bars. He also questions how many other bars can keep paying the rent whilst closed, and will landlords seek to re-purpose their portfolio of premises to non-P4 P and "persuade" those bars that still operate to surrender their leases?

2 - One bar owner has openly admitted that even if restrictions are relaxed in May he won't be opening because the custom just won't be there. The potential business from Expats only would not cover the additional costs (staff, utilities, etc.) of opening.

3 - For those hoping for an influx of herds of young office girls desperate to make the rent having been laid off, think again. By far the majority would go down the Thai P4 P scene rather than the farang / East Asian.

4 - Twenty staff of Hillary 2 on Sukhumvit Soi 4 have tested positive and are in hospital.

On point 4 I should emphasise that anyone who tests positive in Thailand is hospitalised (with the possible exception of famous actors). No information has been given on the quantity of onward transmissions if any.

However, if anyone thinks bars and gogos are going to be allowed to reopen any time soon, think again. The Hillary 2 and Thong Lor clusters will be cited as reasons why bars are high risk and cannot be reopened (my view, not Stick's).

In Pattaya a lot of weight is being given by the vest (singlet to some) wearing unwashed to the Chonburi Governor's aspiration to re-open "all" businesses from 1 May, but little regard taken of the caveat of "with appropriate social distancing measures". My opinion, for what it is worth, is that the view will be taken such measures are not possible in bars and gogos and they will remain closed by Govenrnment order for quite some time.

[Member #4698]

there is no way things can be shut down until a vaccine is found.

Right, there is no way things can remain in shut down much longer. We are in the process of killing our economies and thus killing our way of life. At some point soon all the world's various governments will have to open up their respective economies or face civil unrest. The good news is Corona is NOT nearly as lethal as something like the Spanish Flu and the hope is that the world's mitigation strategy has worked well enough that we can all go back to work following certain safety guidelines and not reignite the virus. But regardless of whether this mitigation strategy worked or didn't work we still must get back to work. The world survived, innovated, and began a sustained period of economic growth never seen before following the Spanish Flu scourge with no mitigation attempts whatsoever. History will decide if this lockdown strategy for this particular virus was worth the cost or not. Take note of Sweden's approach. They are the only advanced Western Nation that did not go into lockdown. Their government trusted their people to act rationally and in their own best interests. It may have worked.

[LittleBigMan]

Not taking sides just another opinion.

I seriously doubt anyone really has an answer to any of this? Right now it seems politics is just as bad as the Virus when things do open up and it will the numbers will rise and then it will taper off but regardless both sides will spin it to their advantage.

A hundred years things have changed then there were no antibiotics nor there the research there is today. Most of all there was no global economy in which everything is so linked whether we believe it or not money today is what makes the world go around.

You have science vs. Economy is there a compromise not for a hundred-year past but for today based on today there is no way things can be shut down until a vaccine is found.