Rio de Janeiro Reports

[Pahllus Maximus]

There are all sorts of angles. For example, pro traders like IBC.com crap all over the "retail" bullshit with margin lending at about 2. 5% for 70% leverage. Don't worry about short term, use IRR or a mod Dietz to measure currency, dividends and gains / losses. Buy a mixed bag with great yield, Annaly Capital, Petrobas, and Japanese industrials etc where net yield exceeds carry cost. The USA is all about credit: other markets have no easy margin. It's cash down. As Vagabundo points out, markets often overreact that creates a mispricing that various options can be used. Its 144 A derivatives where the fun begins and what is called carry trade, borrow in currency X and earn in currency Y.

I never worry about get rich quick BS. As long as my game 16% annually I'm happy. Why? Because the rule of 72. Take a given rate. Put into 72. That's how long it takes to double in value. Thus 10% doubles roughly every 7 years. So my $ doubles every 4. 5 years (actually faster but I will not bore everyone on exponential math and reinvestment avalanche). Right now I'm into Russia, South Korea, South Africa, Japan, Brazil and China. 2/3 rds are unlisted companies or private club deals. Diversify: what is called non-correlated risk buckets. I have to track all the currencies etc but have some really nifty database tools that gives me really good intel, and I usually get about 20% a year since 1992. Been quite a ride. The Asian currency crisis basically set me up. Quality Thai and other companies sold at stupid prices. Also, read Nick Taleb to understand how all the MBA types and pseudo math babble are full of shit, and this includes the finest names in Wall Street that are corporate welfare queens. Lastly, if your mom cannot understand it, then there is a fool in the game, and most likely you.

It's just abstract shit. If you are unhappy, don't sleep well or are overweight / sick or worry about status you have already lost the battle. This is why a serene home, morning BJ and good workouts are needed.

[Vagabundo1]

Easter Sunday Carnival WTF.

So, you have this cognitive dissonance. Easter Sunday is today. Anne Amari went home to celebrate pascoa, after 3 pernoites for 600 reais plus food yesterday. But Carnival started. It goes to 24 April. Carnival is a religious holiday. So, it is really a secular tourist advertising event.

Anyway, feliz pascoa and happy carnival.

They celebrated end of summer 2 weeks ago.

There are stranger things in the world which are not computing, but this bizarre situation is what it is now in Rio.

On the subject of this board, hoaring, I think after the contrived carnival, then the girls drop their prices and the buyer's market commences for a solid 8 months.

Hallallujah indeed.

[Nounce]

I cannot predict war.....

There is a Tesla investor named LEO KoGuan. I read that he made billions trading only Tesla. I would not do it if he had told me to do it like him. LOL That is kind of the point I am trying to make.

I used to trade but I know I could not make close to what I can earn from my job because I diversified too much and bets often went the wrong way. Trades just washed each other out and became a distraction for me while I have a full time job. Nowadays, I only trade during big event that happens rarely because I can make money after the event but I still have my limitation.

Another monger showed me how much he made the last few years. The number over a longer period is larger than the number posted by PM. I think I could have done the same but that is out of my mental limitation because I would not make big enough trade to make that kind of number.

[Nounce]

Having "liquidity" or access to the cash value of one's assets must always be considered as an important part of one's investment strategy. Now, I for one won't be investing in any property in Brazil or anywhere else overseas. I've made that firm decision. No. I'll stick to doing that at home, and will otherwise do as others have suggested. That would be fly in, rent or lease a place for my time there (wherever "there" might be), enjoy the hell out of myself, and then GTFO exactly when I'm good and ready. No sooner and no later!

I bought properties out of necessity. The unintended consequence is that I bought in the right area and benefitted from the decision. Also because I had mortgage which is a leverage so a small down payment with large return in cases like mine.

Now if I used the same leverage and invested in a single stock, I am pretty sure I could make a lot more if I picked the right stock. Just to leverage everything you have in one stock is a very difficult to do while most of us don't have the same concern buying a house.

[SonicBoom1]

Indeed, you only live once. Epicurus said it far better than I can: Non fui, fui, non-sum, non-curo ("I was not; I was; I am not; I do not care" The best trade is snatches of joy that come and go. It is a fool that thinks they can one day live in a perpetual paradise (cue grey haired couples on a beach for a retirement village ad or Hawaiin time share scam) or be the richest man in the cemetery. Youth is wasted on the young. And it can all end tomorrow with cancer, stroke, heart attack, car crash, etc, and it absolutely will come for each and everyone of you reading this. We are doomed but live in hope.

We chase beautiful women, alive with youth and have the rare gift of freedom to bang them. There are many other things to have fun with. Investing in optimal mental and physical health, experiences and memories is what life is all about whilst we are here. Done the right way, we are living the dream, whilst it lasts.

Pretty funny, monger-philosopher, but all of us here are ultimately chasing fun and human connection.

100% agreed. I'm going to look that quote up.

[SonicBoom1]

"we go back in space because we can't go back in time".

We go back in physical space. It's why we go to the old homes we used to live in, highschools, colleges or that old bedroom we spent our youths in. We can't go back to those days but we can go back to those spots and get just that closer to those times.

...

Life's a ***** and then you die. People always think it's a negative line but it's just a fact. No matter what you do or who you are, you'll always fall victim to the pitfalls of life. You'll get sick and injured. You'll try to attempt something and fail. You will slowly look around you and see all the people you love get older and older until they don't.

But in between those falls we can fill our lives with the pursuit of happiness. Take risks and chase that rush. And that's what I did. It may not have gone exactly as planned but theres a story to tell now and no story started with "well I did the math, calculated the odds and decided to not take risks.

Fantastic observations! Life is indeed an adventure. Even when we don't get what we wanted to, its still a learning.

[Pahllus Maximus]

Sound comparative literature on the theoretical aspects of mongering by esteemed Vagabundo.

As WW points out, memories matter. My 2c: invest in health, mental and physical as the best investment you can have, as the value of $ falls to zero when you die, nor will be around to see others enjoy it. I always crack up watching old people use it as a weapon to buy the illusion of love and attention for a vague afterlife promise versus the real love and gratitude they might get helping in the here and now. Basically they don't trust their claimed beneficiaries loyalty, which means they have nothing real. I enclose a cartoon from 70 years ago on topic. Let's not become miserable old men dangling honey for touch by the hour and nothing else on offer.

If you want to be loved, be loveable. Sounds corny but it's true.

That's not to say P4P is incompatible with happiness, but it is a side dish to the main course and needs to be sandboxed. WW's description of low expectations, wild dancing and beach is charming, organic and made me smile. So did the point of amazing stories and feats never starting with accountant type analysis, usually built on flawed assumptions and psychic intangibles not being weighted properly or at all. I cannot wait to be back in Rio and see what all the photos of construction translates to. One thing for sure will be my blondie Nordic, E sized tits, athletic who happily swallows, smiles and winks at me. Speaks passable English too. I'm yet to see her in a bikini in the waves. No contest between USA bristling with homelessness and neurosis versus Brazil.

[Xpartan]

What a wonderful essay, WW!

Wow that is exactly how I feel after my visits to Sao Paulo. I took the risk, went by myself to a place everyone told me was too dangerous, made love with beautiful women and now I am in USA working for several more years. Butt I have the memories.

"we go back in space because we can't go back in time".

[WyattEarp]

Just to clarify, my original post is not against buying properties in Brazil or against investing in anything. I am talking about being able to covert it to cash and be able to move it internationally quickly. My perspective is based on my personal past experience. I have been benefitted by property purchase so to me it is a positive. Although it does not always go up but when it goes down, it never goes below the previous high even in 2008. That is enough for me until that experience changes.

I wouldn't buy real estate in Brazil unless I was living there most of the time and fairly certain where I wanted to live. As you alluded to, real estate is a relatively illiquid investment.

On the flip side, I have owned Brazilian stocks and one can own Brazilian-focused funds if they want to benefit from growth in the Brazilian economy. If one wants to have a true investment exposed to the Real, you need to invest in truly domestic companies. Vale, Petrobras and other commodity-oriented are likely to track global commodity prices not what's happening specifically with the Brazilian economy and currency. There are many Brazilian companies with domestic businesses listed on the NYSE including many Brazilian banks.

[Vagabundo1]

I cannot predict war.

I am a technical trader.

My basic position is neutral with a option collar on indexes like S&P 500 (ticker SPY), Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM).

When things get oversold or overbought on our indicators, we do a reversal.

I've made my best trades on the WIFI in the sex motels of Rio out of a 40 pound or less backpack on trips that start at one month, then extend to 3, then 10.

As with the banker who dreamed up BRIC because he wanted Brazilian Bunda to be a write off, I have done the quant work showing EEM has the highest volatility, and I sell volatility, like a butt obsessed photographer at Carnival, aiming by gopro up the ass of the tightest anal passage of the best passissta -- call it the samba school of option trading.

If one can predict war with 100% accuracy, then one can make money in many ways, a huge amount of money that this discussion does not really matter.

Just to clarify, my original post is not against buying properties in Brazil or against investing in anything. I am talking about being able to covert it to cash and be able to move it internationally quickly. My perspective is based on my personal past experience. I have been benefitted by property purchase so to me it is a positive. Although it does not always go up but when it goes down, it never goes below the previous high even in 2008. That is enough for me until that experience changes.

[Vagabundo1]

Marquez, Memories of my Melancholy *****s.

Torres, Fim.

Amado, The Two Lives of Quincas.

Hemingway, For Whom the Bell Tolls.

Why these books: Memories is about a 90 year old who orders a teen from his favorite madam for his 90th birthday. Fim is about 5 carioca men in 1969 in the reverse order of their deaths, begging whether one wants to be the fit volleyball player who fucks teens and takes vitamin V until his death by heart attack or some other variety of life. Two Lives is about a respected middle class tax collector who at 50 leaves his family of 'vipers' and goes and lives another decade in a working girl house until his happy death whereafter his real friends parade the body to the docks where they celebrate with hoars. Whom is about two days of an American in the Spanish civil war with his teen girlfriend before a fight with Russians.

Indeed, you only live once. Epicurus said it far better than I can: Non fui, fui, non-sum, non-curo ("I was not; I was; I am not; I do not care" The best trade is snatches of joy that come and go. It is a fool that thinks they can one day live in a perpetual paradise (cue grey haired couples on a beach for a retirement village ad or Hawaiin time share scam) or be the richest man in the cemetery. Youth is wasted on the young. And it can all end tomorrow with cancer, stroke, heart attack, car crash, etc, and it absolutely will come for each and everyone of you reading this. We are doomed but live in hope.

We chase beautiful women, alive with youth and have the rare gift of freedom to bang them. There are many other things to have fun with. Investing in optimal mental and physical health, experiences and memories is what life is all about whilst we are here. Done the right way, we are living the dream, whilst it lasts.

Pretty funny, monger-philosopher, but all of us here are ultimately chasing fun and human connection.

[The Cane]

Just to clarify, my original post is not against buying properties in Brazil or against investing in anything. I am talking about being able to covert it to cash and be able to move it internationally quickly. My perspective is based on my personal past experience.

Having "liquidity" or access to the cash value of one's assets must always be considered as an important part of one's investment strategy. Now, I for one won't be investing in any property in Brazil or anywhere else overseas. I've made that firm decision. No. I'll stick to doing that at home, and will otherwise do as others have suggested. That would be fly in, rent or lease a place for my time there (wherever "there" might be), enjoy the hell out of myself, and then GTFO exactly when I'm good and ready. No sooner and no later!

[Nounce]

Currency is a claim on a country's assets, all of them, stocks, bonds, property, tanks, ships, guns, hooker's asses, and land.

BRL has been moving due to.

1. end of covid.

2. war making Brazil a source of commodities cut off by war.

Experienced real estate guys in Copa say their Italian friends are buying the shit out of copa property.

So that is in favor of buying property.

But again, my view is that unless you live in it full time and have top flight local lawyers on call, and you are prepared to lose the capital, you should rent, not buy. My smartest ISGer friends like fukafmedig said the same thing. Rent even if on a 30 month lease, and if you need to GTFO, break the lease and GTFO.

If one can predict war with 100% accuracy, then one can make money in many ways, a huge amount of money that this discussion does not really matter.

Just to clarify, my original post is not against buying properties in Brazil or against investing in anything. I am talking about being able to covert it to cash and be able to move it internationally quickly. My perspective is based on my personal past experience. I have been benefitted by property purchase so to me it is a positive. Although it does not always go up but when it goes down, it never goes below the previous high even in 2008. That is enough for me until that experience changes.

[Pahllus Maximus]

Indeed, you only live once. Epicurus said it far better than I can: Non fui, fui, non-sum, non-curo ("I was not; I was; I am not; I do not care" The best trade is snatches of joy that come and go. It is a fool that thinks they can one day live in a perpetual paradise (cue grey haired couples on a beach for a retirement village ad or Hawaiin time share scam) or be the richest man in the cemetery. Youth is wasted on the young. And it can all end tomorrow with cancer, stroke, heart attack, car crash, etc, and it absolutely will come for each and everyone of you reading this. We are doomed but live in hope.

We chase beautiful women, alive with youth and have the rare gift of freedom to bang them. There are many other things to have fun with. Investing in optimal mental and physical health, experiences and memories is what life is all about whilst we are here. Done the right way, we are living the dream, whilst it lasts.

Pretty funny, monger-philosopher, but all of us here are ultimately chasing fun and human connection.

[Pahllus Maximus]

Cash is trash these days. Commodities and real companies, such as productive gold / copper mines, manufacturing specialties like semiconductors and agriculture is where it is at. There are a few plays in retail real estate, but that is a a proxy for the bond market and retail speculation joint venture. Collapses of 1991,2002, 2008-2010 all come to mind. Detroit and Gary, Indiana were once sexy times. Catching the wave has risks if you are playing the greater fool game. The most successful are a few slumlord funds buying up tract "housing" in really depressed cities and then screwing the inhabitants with a plethora of fees etc to drive up the CAPEX. Payday loans with an effective rate of 600% are another, quietly supported by the major banks. That and private prisons are something I'm not going to play in.

There are opportunities with limited supply "trophy" houses where there are simultaneous currency dislocations, Brazil being one and Turkey another. To play this game, you have to price out the herd, usually pay cash, preferably a distressed sale (rare) and be patient. This is not "flipper" bullshit that describes the bank sponsored, capital gains tax free real estate casino in the USA. As to the latter, taxation (by deliberate legislative design) is mostly only for W2 earners and indirect taxes. US citizens and stuff like FACTA makes nomadic life hard, but also able to be worked around by an entire cottage industry of lawyers and accountants.

Vagabundos new fund sounds exciting. Presumably the local girls can rub sunscreen on our balls and BJ's on the beach at sunset, fresh caipirinha in hand and admire the blue rollers and sea breeze. A good way to "blow" your capital. By the way, when V refers to GTFO, where to exactly ? I'd hardly describe the USA as a safe haven, confiscation in that place is quite real such as state sponsored extortion racket known as contingency lawyers (often on billboards), divorce, IRS, etc etc.