General Info

[Nuupter]

Wow just read this article, would you be crazy to visit now?

https://www.traveloffpath.com/brazil...s-for-tourism/

I'm guessing the termas and clubs aren't open yet?

Want to go to Sao Paulo, but Scandallo and Bomboa is not open, so not sure of choices. Also, with termas closed in Rio, what is choices are there? The escort sites either has face blurred out or none piqued my interest.

[SoberHans69]

Wow just read this article, would you be crazy to visit now?

https://www.traveloffpath.com/brazil...s-for-tourism/

I'm guessing the termas and clubs aren't open yet?

[FlcnHvy]

It looks as of now July 28th, the border closure has not been extended. I called the airline I'm booking a flight with, and they said, travel should be open if there is no change before the 29th. There have been no updates, but still waiting. Anyone have an update / opinion on this?

I'll be flying in from Portugal. (non-USA Citizen).

Cheers.

[Jan 156]

Can I politely suggest, especially given the remit of our forum, that members maybe try to ignore posts about the Brasilian president.

There is a large proportion of the population, mostly but not all evangelicals (charismatic christians), who simply "believe" and voted accordingly. While that might seem nonsensical to the rest, not all of them are technically unintelligent in general matters, and some of the supporters of the current regime have academic qualifications in some field or other. All those believers cannot be persuaded otherwise It's a rather Brasilian phenomenon that we don't see on such a scale in other countries.

It doesn't affect the logistics of mongering (other than staying out of arguments and demonstrations). Nor does it affect your personal safety in a general sense. The So Paulo leaders for instance brought in much stricter responses that in many other areas, and in defiance of the edicts from above, with the result that many anti-covid-19 safety measures we're implemented faster than many western cities. Other parts of the country may not have the same leanings towards what most would call scientific precautions.

It would perhaps economize on scrolling if posts about the Brasilian President could even perhaps be thought of as clickbait, and just find a jeitinho around them. .

Stay safe, enjoy!

[Sperto]

If somebody wants to learn about Covid-19 I doubt they'll look in a monger forum. Wouldn't it be good if someone creates a Covid-19 thread in the Brazil forum? If somebody looks for information on sex travel throughout Brazil they have to to dig through many pages of Covid-19 information in the General Info and Rio de Janeiro thread.

[WyattEarp]

The whole discussion of "herd immunity" is flawed as it applies to this pandemic. There is no natural herd immunity to many of the viruses that are problematic for humans. Except where there are vaccines. The whole concept was developed from / for vaccination programs. There is no "herd immunity" to the common cold (4 different coronaviruses), to any type of measles, to mumps, to smallpox, to chicken pox, to polio, . Etc. Etc. Viruses or bacteria. Only with vaccines. In theory there could be a natural herd immunity without vaccines, but I don't know of a single example. So. Not something we should hang our hopes on.

I believe a vaccine can be called a controlled, mild form of infection. I don't believe the common influenza vaccines are 100% effective, but with national vaccination campaigns you can starve the virus.

One of the scarier thoughts is that you can be infected by the coronavirus multiple times. Fortunately, I have not seen reports from what I consider the more reliable news outlets. It is likely (let's hope) that some patients were carrying around the virus and never really eradicated it from their system.

[Spidy]

The whole discussion of "herd immunity" is flawed as it applies to this pandemic. There is no natural herd immunity to many of the viruses that are problematic for humans. Except where there are vaccines...

Oh, I'm very much aware. Thanks, but I'm not the one you should be telling.

[Zeos1]

Thanks G90, "Herd Immunity" info is much appreciated.

The whole discussion of "herd immunity" is flawed as it applies to this pandemic. There is no natural herd immunity to many of the viruses that are problematic for humans. Except where there are vaccines. The whole concept was developed from / for vaccination programs. There is no "herd immunity" to the common cold (4 different coronaviruses), to any type of measles, to mumps, to smallpox, to chicken pox, to polio, . Etc. Etc. Viruses or bacteria. Only with vaccines. In theory there could be a natural herd immunity without vaccines, but I don't know of a single example. So. Not something we should hang our hopes on.

[Spidy]

Even if infection with the COVID-19 virus creates long-lasting immunity, a large number of people would have to become infected to reach the herd immunity threshold. Experts estimate that in the U.S., 70% of the population - more than 200 million people - would have to recover from COVID-19 to halt the epidemic. If many people become sick with COVID-19 at once, the health care system could quickly become overwhelmed. This amount of infection could also lead to serious complications and millions of deaths, especially among older people and those who have chronic conditions.

Thanks G90, "Herd Immunity" info is much appreciated.

[George90]

3.8% is a nummer based on that there are no hidden cases. Not especially likely.

"The threshold could be as low as 43-60% maybe you are the one who "need to read about epidemiology and learn exactly what herd immunity is".

https://www.google.com/amp/s/medical...-threshold.amp

Again, I apologize for continuing on this topic. There is still some relevancy for us. I decided to take my own advice and read more about herd immunity. I am pasting the following from the Mayo Clinic website.

Herd immunity and COVID-19 (coronavirus): What you need to know.

Why is herd immunity important?

Herd immunity occurs when a large portion of a community (the herd) becomes immune to a disease, making the spread of disease from person to person unlikely. As a result, the whole community becomes protected not just those who are immune.

Often, a percentage of the population must be capable of getting a disease in order for it to spread. This is called a threshold proportion. If the proportion of the population that is immune to the disease is greater than this threshold, the spread of the disease will decline. This is known as the herd immunity threshold.

What percentage of a community needs to be immune in order to achieve herd immunity? It varies from disease to disease. The more contagious a disease is, the greater the proportion of the population that needs to be immune to the disease to stop its spread. For example, the measles is a highly contagious illness. It's estimated that 94% of the population must be immune to interrupt the chain of transmission.

How is herd immunity achieved?

There are two paths to herd immunity for COVID-19 vaccines and infection.

Natural infection.

However, there are some major problems with relying on community infection to create herd immunity to the virus that causes COVID-19. First, it isn't yet clear if infection with the COVID-19 virus makes a person immune to future infection.

Even if infection with the COVID-19 virus creates long-lasting immunity, a large number of people would have to become infected to reach the herd immunity threshold. Experts estimate that in the U.S., 70% of the population - more than 200 million people - would have to recover from COVID-19 to halt the epidemic. If many people become sick with COVID-19 at once, the health care system could quickly become overwhelmed. This amount of infection could also lead to serious complications and millions of deaths, especially among older people and those who have chronic conditions.

[George90]

Some guys needs to get laid -- Bad!

Yes, ET. And I guess I am one of those guys who badly needs to get laid! Alas! My destination of choice is Brazil, and things are not looking good there right now or in the near future.

[Exec Talent]

Some guys needs to get laid -- Bad!

[Member #4698]

It is correct that the number of confirmed cases of infection is under-estimated. You failed to realize that the under-estimation of COVID cases necessarily means that the number of COVID deaths is likewise under-estimated. People have died, often at home, from COVID-19 but without the health authorities testing for the virus and therefore counting the death as caused by COVID-19. <snip> Both the numerator and denominator of the death rate calculation are under-estimated.

I disagree. In countries like the USA, Western Europe, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Japan, South Korea, and Singapore the number of deaths due to the Corona is very accurate and the number of unreported deaths due to Corona is statistically zero. In fact, in the USA there is some evidence to indicate that the recent number of deaths attributed to Corona in the last 30 days is over stated.

That said I would not be surprised if the number of deaths directly caused by Corona in countries like Brazil, Thailand, the Philippines are under reported for the exact reason you give. But then so is the far larger total number of positive cases. Furthermore, in the USA and similar countries. when someone dies. the family can't just bury the body or throw it down the incinerator. The health authorities are called in and a recorded cause of death is made.

So, once again it is the denominator ie the total number of cases that is key to understanding this pandemic. Due to the asymptomatic nature of this disease for millions and millions of people under the age of 50, who go unreported in the stats and don't even know they contracted the disease, the death rate you quote is in gross error.

[George90]

For those who support the notion of herd immunity, agree with claims of coronavirus not being as serious as the media, CDC, WHO and others imply, and believe in the credo of "Survival of the fittest. ", at least use stronger logic and reason in your arguments.

The 3. 8% death rate you quote is not an accurate reading of the current situation and has been shown to be flawed and misleading. "In fact, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimated in May that the coronavirus kills about 0.26% of the people it infects, about 1 in 400 people. New estimates from Sweden suggest that only 1 in 10,000 people under 50 will die from the virus, compared to 1 in 14 of people over 80 and 1 in 6 of those over 90.

The first sentence is correct. But I never claimed the estimated death rate computed was an accurate reading of the current situation. I claimed it was an average death rate for the entire US over the entire time of the pandemic. It is not age-adjusted. It is not race / ethnicity specific. It is not for March and April versus for May and June. There is indeed huge variation in the COVID-19 death rate across geography and socio-economic demographics.

I gave that estimate to challenge herd immunity supporters to satisfactorily explain (using observed data) how to arrive at a death rate of 0.1% starting from an observed death rate of 3.8%. I await that explanation.

Estimates for the coronavirus lethality have fallen so sharply because calculating the so-called infection fatality rate requires scientists and physicians to know both the total number of deaths and the total number of people infected."

Thus the actual death rate in the USA is estimated now to be between 0.1 % and 0.5% with the great amount of uncertainty still in these numbers due to the fact that no one knows the exact total number of Americans infected and recovered from the disease while we pretty much do know the number of fatalities.

So get the total number of deaths from the CDC, get the total number of infected people from the CDC, and calculate the death rate. Show that it is between 0.1% and 0.5%, with your estimate of the uncertainty!.

So "while the CDC reports 2. 34 million Americans have been infected with the coronavirus, the actual number of infected and recovered people may be closer to 50 million. CDC Director Robert Redfield told journalists Thursday that the number of cases may be 10 times higher than the earlier 2. 34 million. Thus, the death rate, which would be 5. 2 % based on that 2. 34 million figure, is actually more like 1/20 as high or 0. 26 %. " It is unfortunate that politics has entered into the scientific study of this pandemic. We live in strange times.

You commit another logic error here. It is correct that the number of confirmed cases of infection is under-estimated. You failed to realize that the under-estimation of COVID cases necessarily means that the number of COVID deaths is likewise under-estimated. People have died, often at home, from COVID-19 but without the health authorities testing for the virus and therefore counting the death as caused by COVID-19.

Both the numerator and denominator of the death rate calculation are under-estimated. You stated that only the only the denominator is under-estimated leading to an inflated death rate. In fact, the death rate can also be over-estimated, or neither. It depends on the degree of under-estimated of the number of cases versus number of deaths.

I apologize for the long post and to those preferring different content. But I strongly feel (and I hope Jackson agrees) that this virus business is important to our hobby. We need to get the facts correct! We need to know and understand it well! We learned how to deal with HIV using condoms. But condoms won't stop the coronavirus. We can't get oral sex when she has a mask on. We need to be able to know and explain how she can't catch coronavirus from our dicks (I think). I hope everyone feels me on this.

[ShooBree]

The Johns Hopkins University (JHU) is collecting data on the virus cases and deaths. As of this evening (July 17,2020, 7:00 pm) JHU estimates the US has 3,638,002 confirmed of COVID-19 cases and 139,175 deaths confirmed to be from COVID-19. A death rate is the number of deaths divided by the number of cases. The average death rate since the beginning of the pandemic in the US is 139,175 / 3,638,002 = 3.8%.

You need to read about epidemiology and learn exactly what herd immunity is. Please cite a physician who believes that herd immunity can be achieved with less than half the population infected and protected with anti-bodies.

3.8% is a nummer based on that there are no hidden cases. Not especially likely.

"The threshold could be as low as 43-60% maybe you are the one who "need to read about epidemiology and learn exactly what herd immunity is".

https://www.google.com/amp/s/medical...-threshold.amp