General Info

[Member #4698]

The Johns Hopkins University (JHU) is collecting data on the virus cases and deaths. As of this evening (July 17,2020, 7:00 pm) JHU estimates the US has 3,638,002 confirmed of COVID-19 cases and 139,175 deaths confirmed to be from COVID-19. A death rate is the number of deaths divided by the number of cases. The average death rate since the beginning of the pandemic in the US is 139,175 / 3,638,002 = 3.8%.

The 3. 8% death rate you quote is not an accurate reading of the current situation and has been shown to be flawed and misleading. "In fact, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimated in May that the coronavirus kills about 0.26% of the people it infects, about 1 in 400 people. New estimates from Sweden suggest that only 1 in 10,000 people under 50 will die from the virus, compared to 1 in 14 of people over 80 and 1 in 6 of those over 90.

Estimates for the coronavirus lethality have fallen so sharply because calculating the so-called infection fatality rate requires scientists and physicians to know both the total number of deaths and the total number of people infected."

Thus the actual death rate in the USA is estimated now to be between 0.1 % and 0.5% with the great amount of uncertainty still in these numbers due to the fact that no one knows the exact total number of Americans infected and recovered from the disease while we pretty much do know the number of fatalities.

So "while the CDC reports 2. 34 million Americans have been infected with the coronavirus, the actual number of infected and recovered people may be closer to 50 million. CDC Director Robert Redfield told journalists Thursday that the number of cases may be 10 times higher than the earlier 2. 34 million. Thus, the death rate, which would be 5. 2 % based on that 2. 34 million figure, is actually more like 1/20 as high or 0. 26 %. " It is unfortunate that politics has entered into the scientific study of this pandemic. We live in strange times.

[George90]

Actually we don't know the true mortality rate nor the limit required to reach immunity. What we do know is that the death rate depends on age and health. I've seen some experts say that the death rate is closer to 0. 1 % and that the threshold to reach herd immunity could be as low as 40%. The key is to isolate vulnerable groups and let the virus spread among the healthy where the mortality rate is appreciated to be much, much lower than 1-2%.

We also know that those who die are in many cases close to death anyways. People dying in nursery homes is awful, but if you can't even take care of yourself, then maybe your time on earth is over. The healthy survives, that's the key to evolution.

The Johns Hopkins University (JHU) is collecting data on the virus cases and deaths. As of this evening (July 17,2020, 7:00 pm) JHU estimates the US has 3,638,002 confirmed of COVID-19 cases and 139,175 deaths confirmed to be from COVID-19. A death rate is the number of deaths divided by the number of cases. The average death rate since the beginning of the pandemic in the US is 139,175 / 3,638,002 = 3.8%.

You need to read about epidemiology and learn exactly what herd immunity is. Please cite a physician who believes that herd immunity can be achieved with less than half the population infected and protected with anti-bodies.

[ShooBree]

Except for what I heard a doctor explain yesterday.

To reach herd immunity, a population must have 70% to 80% of its members infected. The United States has a population of around 330 million people. Let's use the lower proportion of 70%, that yields 231 million infected Americans. COVID-19 has a death rate between 1% and 2%. That yields deaths in the range of 2.3 million to 4.6 million Americans. And that is the estimated cost in American lives of achieving herd immunity in the United States!

Actually we don't know the true mortality rate nor the limit required to reach immunity. What we do know is that the death rate depends on age and health. I've seen some experts say that the death rate is closer to 0. 1 % and that the threshold to reach herd immunity could be as low as 40%. The key is to isolate vulnerable groups and let the virus spread among the healthy where the mortality rate is appreciated to be much, much lower than 1-2%.

We also know that those who die are in many cases close to death anyways. People dying in nursery homes is awful, but if you can't even take care of yourself, then maybe your time on earth is over. The healthy survives, that's the key to evolution.

[ShooBree]

The difference is that Spidy has facts back up his argument and the other has "myth". I will note only that Bolsonaro is almost exclusively supported by the evangelicals and wealthy classes. Non evangelicals generally hate him and all he represents to the extent that on twitter about 70% of the profiles state "don't waste my time if you are for Bozo" or some variant there of.

First you mention "myth", then you proceed to use Twitter as a source to make sweeping statements. Anyways, you do understand the difference between correlation and causation? You ever heard about the rock which keeps tigers away? https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=xSVqLHghLpw.

Maybe what you see on Twitter says more about Twitter than anything else. That Bolsonaro would have won the election thanks to being "almost exclusively supported by the evangelicals and wealthy classes" is a rather amusing thought. You spoke about "facts" earlier, I'm curious to see your "facts" regarding this. Did you find a poll on Twitter? What percentage of the Brazilian population belongs to the "wealthy classes"?

Either way I don't see the point of such a statement, Evangelicals and the wealthy have the same right to vote as anyone else. Bolsonaro was democratically elected with the support of the Brazilian people.

[George90]

I'm not a doctor so correct me if I'm wrong; but in human history there's never been a virus that disappeared thanks to people going into quarantine. Short of a vaccine, herd immunity or letting it burn out are our only realistic options. It's looking good in San Marino, no other country have recorded a higher death rate but few other countries can say that they haven't had a COVID-19 death since 23 d of May. I like what I'm seeing, herd immunity for the win.

Except for what I heard a doctor explain yesterday.

To reach herd immunity, a population must have 70% to 80% of its members infected. The United States has a population of around 330 million people. Let's use the lower proportion of 70%, that yields 231 million infected Americans. COVID-19 has a death rate between 1% and 2%. That yields deaths in the range of 2.3 million to 4.6 million Americans. And that is the estimated cost in American lives of achieving herd immunity in the United States!

[WyattEarp]

The difference is that Spidy has facts back up his argument and the other has "myth".

I'm really not interested in debating Bolsonaro. Your "facts" are based on the premise that shutting down the economy and mostly focusing on the virus is the correct action. And yes, several countries have had some success with this approach. I'm not sure that Brazil is exactly in the same position as Western European countries with more wealth and general access to healthcare. My very liberal social media contacts keep emphasizing that we should pay everyone to stay home until there is a vaccine. I think anyone with a basic understanding of the economy knows that argument is a fallacy especially for Brazil.

As an American, I can tell you that compliance and tracing even in States with extreme lockdown measures has been difficult. So there is a cultural aspect in addition to the political. I suspect like California and Texas any State that loosens up will see cases significantly increase.

In the near-term, I watch the deaths not just case counts to see who is getting the virus and how well it is being treated. If we have a vaccine by the end of the year, the lockdowns will look like really smart public policy. If a vaccine isn't widely available until later in 2021 or it has some effectiveness issues, the lockdowns will look very differently in retrospect.

[Spidy]

Each individual has their reasons why they decide to read what they read. Read it or don't read it, that is your choice. I encourage everyone if they wish to do, to provide a counterpoints to subject matters that are put forth on this forum, if they feel its warranted. This provides a balance of information w/r to the conversation. That is after all why we come to this community forum.

If this subject matter is not to your liking, move on, don't read it.

[Member #4732]

Nobody comes to ISG to read a long winded political diatribe. As I figured out early into this outbreak, the coronavirus would be the perfect canvass for anyone to project their political beliefs. Everything and anything is to blame with absolute certainty and abject contempt on someone or some system.

The difference is that Spidy has facts back up his argument and the other has "myth". I will note only that Bolsonaro is almost exclusively supported by the evangelicals and wealthy classes. Non evangelicals generally hate him and all he represents to the extent that on twitter about 70% of the profiles state "don't waste my time if you are for Bozo" or some variant there of.

[ShooBree]

To demonstrate courage is one thing. But to demonstrate stupidity by ignoring science and the expertise of public health officials is another. The subjective judgments of history in the decades to come will not be kind to either Bolsonaro or Trump.

I'm not a doctor so correct me if I'm wrong; but in human history there's never been a virus that disappeared thanks to people going into quarantine. Short of a vaccine, herd immunity or letting it burn out are our only realistic options. It's looking good in San Marino, no other country have recorded a higher death rate but few other countries can say that they haven't had a COVID-19 death since 23 d of May. I like what I'm seeing, herd immunity for the win.

[WyattEarp]

Nobody comes to ISG to read a long winded political diatribe. As I figured out early into this outbreak, the coronavirus would be the perfect canvass for anyone to project their political beliefs. Everything and anything is to blame with absolute certainty and abject contempt on someone or some system.

[Spidy]

First of all, Greatness lies in the eye of the beholder. It is subjective. You could Google Greatness, then you will find a description of what it means. A hint, a subjective term will always be vague with different interpretations.

People live and they die, that's the way it always been and always will be. What's important is to live a good life while it lasts, that becomes difficult for many when the politicians have forced through a Great Depression.

A politician, like president Bolsonaro, is the leader of his country. The thought that the leader of a country can't be great is easy to dismiss. Churchill was a hero to many just to mention one politician.

Courage is a trait of Greatness, that's something that Bolsonaro showed when he went against the world to do what's right for his country. He is not a young man, yet he shows no fear for this virus, because he knows that the virus can't come close to do the harm that the lockdowns surely will do.

The job losses caused by the financial crisis in 2008 is reported have been 8.8 million, so far over 40 million lost their jobs now in 2020. The situation is way worse now than then. Not only is the crisis we're facing now much severe, it's also deliberately caused by the politicians. The crisis in 2008 was caused by people and states taking too big loans facilitated by greedy bankers.

I will agree to disagree with your claims of what you consider to be greatness with regards to this Brazilian president. So since you've stated you're opinion, I'll state mine and just preface this by saying much like your opinion mine too is subjective.

He is truly a terrible leader with poor leadership management and knows very little about how to run a great country like Brazil, with a rich culture and diverse socio-economic background, with the cultures of the indigenous Indians, Africans, and Portuguese.

He truly hasn't done a thing to make the country a better place, since taking office. Under his mismanagement he continues to divide the country, instead of uniting it. He has conspired with hired hitmen / gunmen to kill LGBTQ elected officials in Rio. Okay, forgive me. Allegedly! He willingly and knowingly allows the killing of Indigenous People and the illegal seizure and logging of their lands. Turns a blind eye to the loggers and big farmers who kill, loot, burn, pillage and rape their way to bigger profits and more money, at the cost of the innocent lives of the indigenous Indians and the deforestation of the Rain forest still go unchecked. With COVID-19 now infecting and killing indigenous Indians (mainly from illegal loggers) with no immediate medical help being available, some are reporting this could amount to genocide.

"What's important is to live a good life while it lasts." Yeah, tell that to the indigenous Indians, as their lives suffer, so we can put a few more dollars in our pockets and buy the next piece of useless furniture from IKEA, that was illegally exploited from their livelihood. And yes "People live and they die, that's the way it always been and always will be. " (Obliviously, as another ISGer would put it, LOL). As Bolsonaro puts it, "So What?" ...Need I say anymore!

Brazil's healthcare system has been decimated since 2017 and expenditure has been slashed by $4.4 billion or a 1/3 of its current budget, thereby leaving any real defense to COVID-19, basically mute. In some regions, it is close to collapse from the sheer number of COVID-19 patients. By not locking down early, the pressures on a decaying health system is taking its toll and impacting other life saving medical procedures and in some cases thereby leaving the vulnerable to die. "he is not a young man, yet he shows no fear for this virus, . ". Yeah, easy to say when he's the president and has access to the best health care available, much like case with the Prime Minister of England. Tell that to an ailing patient in a run-down, deteriorating hospital in Manaus, with no ventilator machine...Yeah no wait, let me say it for you, "So What?

Unemployment and the economy were trending the downwards long before COVID-19 got to Brazil and were close to 2014 levels, pre- COVID-19, under his leadership. The growing fiscal deficit, raised the debt level to 77.1%. The Brazilian Real has plunged to record lows against the dollar and is in free fall and not primarily from COVID-19, but from Bolsonaro's mishandling and mismanagement of COVID-19 and internal affairs. His poor leadership is not instilling a great deal of confidence from investors and powerbrokers worldwide. Economic disaster, all under his leadership.

He is a truly a terrible and irresponsible leader / president when suggesting Brazilians tested positive for COVID-19 should take hydroxychloroquine (Cloroquina), when there is no medical evidence that it will cure COVID-19. He clearly is not medically qualified to give such advise and nor did his medical advisors, of which two have since resigned due to his inept leadership and unhinged, irrational decision making and leadership.

Politicians that ignore virus pathology, do so at their peril (or should I say, the poor, indigent and most vulnerable people do). Two decades ago we had SARS. Singapore, Hong Kong, Taiwan, South Korea, New Zealand, Australia, Germany, Canada and others responsible world leaders, saw what was headed their way from China in the early days of the COVID-19, before it became a pandemic. To quota a biblical term, "The writing was on the wall". Yet other world leaders choose bury their proverbial heads in the sand. Many of these countries after a hard 2 to 3 month lock-down, have their economies already up and running.

"Courage is a trait of Greatness, that's something that Bolsonaro showed when he went against the world to do what's right for his country"- I wouldn't categorize this as anything thing other than, ignorance in the form of bloviating, pontificating and portraying a good example of, what NOT to do for the good of the country. With the death toll raising, approx. 75K [as of Jul 14th, 2020] (and by all accounts is way higher), it's not what I would associate with any traits of greatness, but if that's your idea of courage as a trait of greatness, so be it. I consider this to truly be a gross mismanagement, horrific ineptitude and terrible leadership, for a president. Yes definitely he's far from perfect, but he's LIGHT YEARS from being great.

So one guy thinks he's an a-hole, another thinks he's great and yet another thinks he's a bumbling inept and terrible political leader. Our subjective opinions aside, I reckon history will have the final say, or maybe (Admin) Jackson will... LOL!

Well I see Jackson has been busy...LOL! So if Jackson decides to delete this post and conversely the last several posts for which neither of us have added any pertinent information related to finding non-P4P or P4P action, then so be it.

PS: What this all basically means is, Bolsonaro's ineptitude is making it a whole lot harder for us to get back to that Brazilian Bunda, that we all love so much. As (I think) another fellow ISGer was trying to convey. Thought I would add this for clarification of relevance. LOL!

[The Cane]

Courage is a trait of Greatness, that's something that Bolsonaro showed when he went against the world to do what's right for his country. He is not a young man, yet he shows no fear for this virus, because he knows that the virus can't come close to do the harm that the lockdowns surely will do.

To demonstrate courage is one thing. But to demonstrate stupidity by ignoring science and the expertise of public health officials is another. The subjective judgments of history in the decades to come will not be kind to either Bolsonaro or Trump.

[ShooBree]

Economies come and go, they will thrive, raise, fall and raise again, while we're here and longer after we're dead and gone. Throughout history most "great" men and women who achieve "greatness" are not politicians, (although some may become one later in life). The mere fact you are even equating greatness with being a politician, tells me you lack the comprehension of the word when applying it to people of outstanding distinction.

I don't even know what that means. By that weak and vague definition, anyone could be considered great. Care to explain?

First of all, Greatness lies in the eye of the beholder. It is subjective. You could Google Greatness, then you will find a description of what it means. A hint, a subjective term will always be vague with different interpretations.

People live and they die, that's the way it always been and always will be. What's important is to live a good life while it lasts, that becomes difficult for many when the politicians have forced through a Great Depression.

A politician, like president Bolsonaro, is the leader of his country. The thought that the leader of a country can't be great is easy to dismiss. Churchill was a hero to many just to mention one politician.

Courage is a trait of Greatness, that's something that Bolsonaro showed when he went against the world to do what's right for his country. He is not a young man, yet he shows no fear for this virus, because he knows that the virus can't come close to do the harm that the lockdowns surely will do.

The job losses caused by the financial crisis in 2008 is reported have been 8.8 million, so far over 40 million lost their jobs now in 2020. The situation is way worse now than then. Not only is the crisis we're facing now much severe, it's also deliberately caused by the politicians. The crisis in 2008 was caused by people and states taking too big loans facilitated by greedy bankers.

[ShooBree]

[Deleted by Admin]

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[Spidy]

I've heard and read the "economies rise and fall and rise" an awful lot lately. While it's a true (and obvious) statement, it skims over the significant human suffering involved in a sharp economic contraction.

Personally I'm not skimming over the "human suffering" involved, but there are those politicians (point and case, US, Brazil, Russia, UK, India) and people in power who do.

When the "banksters and fraudsters" killed the economy in 2008, where was the outcry of "human suffering" that took place? It's a pity and unfortunate we couldn't have calculated the worldwide "human suffering" they inflicted and hold them accountable.

Bottom line is, you CANNOT survive, an economic fall and rise, if your DEAD!! (obviously).