American Politics

[ScatManDoo]

Trump is basically left to just being able to dick around with two states, Georgia and Wisconsin. Pathetically less than what he needs.

The recount is already happening in Georgia.

The recount could begin in Wisconsin as soon as Thursday November 19th.

The problem for the Trump campaign is that a Wisconsin recount needs to prepaid-upfront. The estimate just came in at $7. 9 million for a state-wide recount in Wisconsin and it would be completed two weeks from today on December 1st.

I really don't think Trump would be willing to up-front spend $8 million for the full recount. To save money, Trump could narrow his request and seek a recount in just a handful of counties instead of all 72 of them. Makes sense for crack Trump investigators to pinpoint and recount only the counties where fraud pushed Biden up and over the legal votes. Hehehe.

Trump campaign spokeswoman Anna Kelly did not immediately react to the state's cost estimates. Those 72 counties are currently completing their canvasses of the vote now, and the last counties are expected to finish them Tuesday (a fall back date to my conclusion).

I think this "All Wisconsin Counties vs Select Wisconsin Counties" decision will give Trump cover for a few more days, without having to pony up any money for a (not worth it) desperate Wisconsin recount.

Trump won the state of Wisconsin by IIRC something like 20,000 to 22,000 votes in 2016, and lost by the same amount in 2020. Very close votes both times, but bigger margins than an expensive recount is likely to reverse.

However the recount in Georgia will be completed this week, and the price, from Trump's perspective, was right! Georgia, not Trump, is going to pay for its recount.

Georgia law requires that one race be audited to check that new election machines counted the ballots accurately, not because of any suspected problems with the results. Republican GA Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger chose to audit the presidential race. Democrat Joe Biden leads Republican President Donald Trump by roughly 14,000 votes. Meant a full hand count was necessary.

By law this Georgia recount is to be completed on Friday this week. Brad Raffensperger previously said the deadline will be met.

With around 5 million voters in Georgia, if the approx. 14,000 vote Biden lead holds in the recount this week, expect Trump to cave instead of pressing on.

On the patheticity scale, there's not much room left. But then Trump has kicked up to and reached a new levels of pathetic continuously throughout his.

Campaign.

Term.

Fame.

Lifetime.

[ScatManDoo]

In 2016: Rasmussen's final poll before the election, Monday Nov. 7, had Clinton up 2 points on Donald Trump. Clinton won the popular vote by 1 percentage point, even though Donald Trump beat her on electoral votes.

No other pollster tracked by Real Clear Politics came as close to the final results. So again, show me a better poll.

So Natty:

You comment a lot on election numbers.

But you don't really seem to know what you are writing about.

In 2016 Hillary Clinton received 65.85 million votes (48.2%) while Donald Trump received 62.98 million votes 46.1%.

You incorrectly and foolishly wrote:

In 2016: Rasmussen's final poll before the election, Monday Nov. 7, had Clinton up 2 points on Donald Trump. Clinton won the popular vote by 1 percentage point

You write that the Rasmussen poll had Clinton up 2 points.

Then you write that won the popular vote by 1 point.

When in the real world, where I live, Clinton wound up 2. 1% in the vote, just as Rasmussen predicted, despite your disingenuous misreporting.

[The Cane]

Because I was making a rhetorical point about the state of American polling. You can use / read any poll you like. But when use polls that have been consistently inaccurate for years it undermines whatever argument you are trying to make.

Question: Why are you so fixated on Trump? For good or evil it is 99% certain that Biden will be the next President of the USA. You should be happy your guy won. Instead, all I hear from your side is Trump Trump Trump. I will make you a wager: the terms are the loser pays the winner the total cost of a night out in a Lounge, a Go Go, or a Club in either Sao Paulo or BKK (winner's choice) including the price of the girl (ST) - I say Trump never runs for President again and you say he runs in 2024.

I will make you a 2nd wager (same terms / amount): I say Biden does not serve out his 4 year term.

Maybe because he's acting like a two-bit, penny ante dictator whose behavior threatens American democracy? You think? Maybe? And once his ass leaves the White House, I'm done thinking about him. He will be the Republican party's problem then, and not the country's. Great, because they deserve one another! And I don't give a damn if he runs again or not, because if he does run and people are stupid enough to help him win the GOP nomination one more time, then we will just show up in even larger numbers than we did this time and shut him down. Again!

And nope, not going to bet you on Poppa Joe because what you're saying is something along the lines of what I've been thinking and telling people all along. This is what I think is going to happen. Joe Biden is either going to die and / or become incapacitated in first term, and that's how we will get the first female president of the United States. Kamala Harris will then run and win the Democratic nomination in her own right after a hard fought battle. She will go up against a white, male Republican (cannot say who yet but don't think Trump), who very well may have a woman on his ticket, and who will defeat Harris for the presidency.

That's what I think will happen. An alternative scenario would be Biden actually making it through one full term, after which time he declines to run for a second. Harris still runs and gets the Democratic nomination, and she still loses to a white, male Republican challenger who I cannot name yet (but again not Trump), and who may have a white female on the GOP ticket for Vice President. This is what I see transpiring. Either way, we get at least four years of Democratic control of the White House and Trumpism, if not dead, holds no significant federal power and influence. Cut off the head, and the body dies. And American democracy lives.

[ScatManDoo]

https://search.yahoo.com/yhs/search?....0.675&p=johns+hopkins+coronavirus+map.

According to some dumbass: If you don't test, you don't get cases.

And if you don't fund contagious disease tracing, you don't stop preventable outbreaks.

My son had dinner with his girlfriend and three of their friends on Sunday, October 25nd.

One of the dinner guests noticed minor Covid symptoms on Wednesday, October 28th, and was tested.

The next day, the dinner guest's results came back as positive.

Coincidentally that same Thursday both I and my son (who lives in my condo with me) felt tired, lethargic, but displayed no other symptoms.

My son and his girlfriend both were tested on Thursday, and both got positive results the same Thursday night. My son's girlfriend lives with her family.

Neither my son, nor his girlfriend has experienced any serious symptoms, and hardly noticed any.

The medical agency that gave my son the positive test result (his health insurer) had cleared my son (in text writing) to return to work on Monday, November 9th.

Presumably the clearance was based solely on my son developing no serious symptoms within 14 days of exposure, since he has done no subsequent retesting.

The company he works for in Santa Ana is a tech / communications company that employs between 12 to 20 people in a free standing 4,000 to 5,000 sq. Ft. Single story tilt-up light industrial building.

His employer asked my son to wait until Tuesday before returning to work in order to prepare everyone at work for his return.

He normally has brief, close, short contact with roughly half the employees once or more daily. I imagine some are trying to keep their distance from him, for now.

He and I have been staying at different ends of the condo. I still consider his half to be heavily infected and a no-go zone.

[Member #4698]

Here though is your best approval rating poll, popular vote, Biden 50.8, Trump 47.5 and of actual voters.

Paulie, I would like to add an addendum to my original post to you. If you are saying that all polls are inherently inaccurate, I would tend to agree in the strictest sense. All statistical models contain random error or noise and polls are statistical models. The unbiased, independent, distribution of the random error should be no more than 2% to 3% or the model is not valid statistically speaking. All pollsters know this. The problem with modern polling is that most pollsters have decided to "cook the books" to obtain a desired outcome that will satisfy their paying customers, the corporate media. For example, if you want to increase candidate X's forecast percentage over candidate why, simply add more of candidate x's likely supporters to the sample while reducing candidate why's likely supporter by the commensurate amount. It is easy. This explains why, pick any mainstream corporate media poll, the pollster chooses to include likely Democrat voters at 39% of the poll and likely Republican voters at 30% in the same poll. Thus, by fidgeting around with the sample percentages you arrive at the desired forecast, whatever you want.

Thus, whoever had the most accurate poll is the most honest pollster. The proof of which is you can bet your last dollar that the internal polling for both the Democratic party and The Republican party was fully accurate and precise to the minimum random error factor because it was unbiased. What we the people get on nightly news, on the other hand, is mostly BS. Thank you corporate media.

So, I differ a little with you on the worth of accurate, unbiased polling. It can be quite precise and useful. But I 100% agree with you that the only poll that really matters is the vote. Although it must be noted that the 2020 vote was tampered with. Biden won, but the count was fraudulent and this was not a fair and honest election. I think everyone knows this whether some people want to admit to it or not is another issue entirely.

[Member #4698]

What did Rasmussen get right in 2016? Don't bother replying. They predicted that Hillary would win the popular vote by a few percentage points. Big deal. I repeat. Big deal. Come election day most of the more recognized polls had her winning the same by four points or less. More facts? Late 2020 Rasmussen polls showed Biden with a very slight national lead over Trump, 1% nationally, but damn, that was wrong as it left plenty of room for a Trump win, plus as it's currently 3. 3 and counting.

All polls by their statistical nature have between 2% to 3% uncertainty. This should not a political issue. Pollsters should be above politics and the relative accuracy of their forecasts should be the only issue.

So, maybe you don't like polls or maybe you just don't like the most accurate poll because in 2020 it poured a little cold water on your leftist dreams of a "Blue Wave". I don't know, but here are the facts:

Rasmussen's final poll before the election, Monday, November 02,2020 had Trump & Biden are in a near tie with Biden edging the president 48% to 47%. Three percent (3%) like some other candidate, and two percent (2%) are still undecided."

So, what other poll was as accurate in 2020? And more to the point, all the other Real Clear Politics tracked polls were off during the entire 2020 election campaign cycle by 7%, 10% and even 15%. What do you think accounts for this huge overstatement in Biden's lead?

In 2016: Rasmussen's final poll before the election, Monday Nov. 7, had Clinton up 2 points on Donald Trump. Clinton won the popular vote by 1 percentage point, even though Donald Trump beat her on electoral votes.

No other pollster tracked by Real Clear Politics came as close to the final results. So again, show me a better poll.

As to state elections the Trafalgar Group was the most accurate. Were they 100% right, NO, it was a close and uncertain election, but show me another pollster who forecast it better?

https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/

[Member #4698]

If you didn't want a response, then why ask the question? I'll tell you what. You got your sources and I got mine. But Donald Trump got to get his ass out of the White House. That's what I care about! Speculation is that he will run again in 2024. Glutton for humiliation and punishment.

Because I was making a rhetorical point about the state of American polling. You can use / read any poll you like. But when use polls that have been consistently inaccurate for years it undermines whatever argument you are trying to make.

Question: Why are you so fixated on Trump? For good or evil it is 99% certain that Biden will be the next President of the USA. You should be happy your guy won. Instead, all I hear from your side is Trump Trump Trump. I will make you a wager: the terms are the loser pays the winner the total cost of a night out in a Lounge, a Go Go, or a Club in either Sao Paulo or BKK (winner's choice) including the price of the girl (ST) - I say Trump never runs for President again and you say he runs in 2024.

I will make you a 2nd wager (same terms / amount): I say Biden does not serve out his 4 year term.

[Paulie97]

You got your sources and I got mine. But Donald Trump got to get his ass out of the White House. That's what I care about!

That's the bottom line.

[Paulie97]

What polls are you referring to? Don't bother replying. I know it is the totally unreliable network media news polls? Rasmussen is the only polling organization that got it right in 2016 and 2020. I repeat: Rasmussen is the only polling organization that got it right in 2016 and 2020. Both Trump and Obama were below 50% in the Rasmussen poll during the majority their respective presidencies.

Here is a mindblower for you: The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday Nov 11,2020 shows that 53% of Likely USA Voters approve of President Trump's job performance. Forty-six percent (46%) disapprove.

https://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...ez_track_nov11

What did Rasmussen get right in 2016? Don't bother replying. They predicted that Hillary would win the popular vote by a few percentage points. Big deal. I repeat. Big deal. Come election day most of the more recognized polls had her winning the same by four points or less. More facts? Late 2020 Rasmussen polls showed Biden with a very slight national lead over Trump, 1% nationally, but damn, that was wrong as it left plenty of room for a Trump win, plus as it's currently 3. 3 and counting.

More facts?

Late Rasmussen polls had Biden up one point in FL, wrong, had Trump winning AZ by three points, wrong, had Cunningham defeating Tillis, NC senate by 3, wrong, just to name a few. So yea, here's the mindblower for you, Rasmussen isn't the gold standard on Trump or Obama approval rating polls. Nor are the other poll services frankly, partly because sampling errors are so common. Landlines are dying, and people often block or don't pick up for callers they don't know. It's a tough business nowadays.

Here though is your best approval rating poll, popular vote, Biden 50.8, Trump 47.5 and of actual voters. Take out the Evangelicals who'd vote for Atilla the Hun if he's against legal abortions, even though those are going to go on anyway, and you're closer to the mainstream polls than the right leaning Rasmussen.

https://www.rasmussenreports.com/old...ecent_articles

[The Cane]

What polls are you referring to? Don't bother replying. I know it is the totally unreliable network media news polls? Rasmussen is the only polling organization that got it right in 2016 and 2020. I repeat: Rasmussen is the only polling organization that got it right in 2016 and 2020. Both Trump and Obama were below 50% in the Rasmussen poll during the majority their respective presidencies.

Here is a mindblower for you: The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday Nov 11,2020 shows that 53% of Likely USA Voters approve of President Trump's job performance. Forty-six percent (46%) disapprove.

https://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...ez_track_nov11

If you didn't want a response, then why ask the question? I'll tell you what. You got your sources and I got mine. But Donald Trump got to get his ass out of the White House. That's what I care about! Speculation is that he will run again in 2024. Glutton for humiliation and punishment.

[Member #4698]

Donald Trump is the only American president never to achieve a 50% approval rating during his presidency. Not even once did he crack that. Impeached. One-term president. Lost the popular vote each time (and by an even larger margin the second time). Less than a 50% approval rating during his entire time in office. Make America great again? Right! Well now, maybe we can.

What polls are you referring to? Don't bother replying. I know it is the totally unreliable network media news polls? Rasmussen is the only polling organization that got it right in 2016 and 2020. I repeat: Rasmussen is the only polling organization that got it right in 2016 and 2020. Both Trump and Obama were below 50% in the Rasmussen poll during the majority their respective presidencies.

Here is a mindblower for you: The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday Nov 11,2020 shows that 53% of Likely USA Voters approve of President Trump's job performance. Forty-six percent (46%) disapprove.

https://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...ez_track_nov11

[ShooBree]

Oh my Buddha!

- CNN lies. And TRUMP lies 99% of all -when he open the mouth. He lies. Because for him it's a TV show to manage USA.

- resumed flights between Israel and Morocco. Great and sell a lot of weapons to UAE. About all the suffer for Palastina. No problem, because there is no profit for him.

- Fight with China. Chaos everywhere and not 1 good deal for USA!

- under Obama it was not possible to nominate someone 10 month before election. But TRUMP did it against the majority of Americans 10 days before election and created on top a nice Covid19 super spreader event in the White House. But of course there is no COVID19 in your reality!

Obama set the precedent when he went ahead and nominated his candidate anyways. So stop crying and accept it.

Palestine will have every chance to blossom as a country as soon as they care more about their children's future than to kill innocent Israelis and financially reward terrorists.

Selling weapons to UAE is good, it's an ally against Iran. Totally uncontroversial and a great country in my mind.

I find your ramblings rather inane.

[The Cane]

He always said he was the best. Yep, the only impeached, one-term President who lost the popular vote. Impressive!

Donald Trump is the only American president never to achieve a 50% approval rating during his presidency. Not even once did he crack that. Impeached. One-term president. Lost the popular vote each time (and by an even larger margin the second time). Less than a 50% approval rating during his entire time in office. Make America great again? Right! Well now, maybe we can.

[Run Mann]

He always said he was the best. Yep, the only impeached, one-term President who lost the popular vote. Impressive!

Trump said he hasn't lost yet, he is filing lawsuits in several states and believes he will be re-elected for four more years once all the 'legal' votes are counted.

[Beno69]

...Did Trump lie? Do you media like CNN, MSNBC, NYT and WP lie?...

...The peace between UAE and Israel, Bahrain and Israel. Flights resumed between Israel and Morocco.
...He took out one of the worlds biggest terrorists, Qasim Soleimani.
...Trump took the fight with China. Trump was the president that finally put some pressure on European nations to take their commitments to NATO seriously.
...Not to mention that he nominated three supreme court justices...

Oh my Buddha!

- CNN lies. And TRUMP lies 99% of all -when he open the mouth. He lies. Because for him it's a TV show to manage USA.

- resumed flights between Israel and Morocco. Great and sell a lot of weapons to UAE. About all the suffer for Palastina. No problem, because there is no profit for him.

- Fight with China. Chaos everywhere and not 1 good deal for USA!

- under Obama it was not possible to nominate someone 10 month before election. But TRUMP did it against the majority of Americans 10 days before election and created on top a nice Covid19 super spreader event in the White House. But of course there is no COVID19 in your reality!