American Politics

[Spidy]

Exactly the same low-IQ obfuscation and failure to answer the question as PVMonger. This isn't about the Republicans.

Really, last I checked, they (Repubs) make up half of federal and state congresses, where such guns control laws are made. (Note: BTW, mayors of cities don't pass gun laws)

This is a simple fact of government, is know even be kindergarten kids. I guess it's back to kindergarten for you and your even lower form of "low-IQ".

Most are strong supporters of the Second Amendment. It is about the democrats and their allied fake news and Washington alphabet agencies, who are not. ....

Do you have a credible alternative explanation?

Yeah, I think for Repubs, are often deluded by your right-wing media and talking-heads into thinking the "boggeyman" (typically in the form of a Dem Pres.) is coming to take your 2nd Amendment rights.

By having better, more secure universal background checks ...etc, would go a long way w/r to gun control and curtailing gun violence and mass shootings. Seems Repubs care more about "attacks from the boggeyman", than the American people being killed and families destroyed from gun violence.

Why Republicans arent likely to budge on gun control
https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/28/polit...sis/index.html

Republicans Block Two Gun Control Measures After San Bernardino Shooting
https://www.newsweek.com/republicans...easures-401097

So I ask again, why is it Repubs aren't doing more to stop gun violence?

[Spidy]

Do you deny ...

BTW if you're looking for "hate speech" try the anti-white diatribes by the MSNBC presenters. ....

Rant all you want, if it makes you feel better! Just make sure your provide the credible data sources, to back up said delusions. Than perhaps, I'll consider taking you more seriously.

BTW, I'm still waiting on the homicide study / chart committed by a Dem vs. Repub by weapons of choice, "in the world according" to Chris P.

Where's that study / chart?

[Spidy]

What they will do is say that it is the "Dem-run cities" that are the problem.

What they will ignore is the fact that even if the murders from the "blue cities" in those "red states" are removed, the overall "gap" remained. In other words, if "red states" had a "murder rate problem", removing the murders from "blue cities" in those "red states" still showed that "red states" had higher murder rates than "blue states". "Over the course of the full 21 years between 2000 and 2020, the Red State murder rate was still 12% higher than the Blue State murder rate, even when murders in the largest cities in those red states were removed. And the murder rate was still higher in 18 of 21 years. " https://www.thirdway.org/report/the-...murder-problem.

Then, of course, they will disparage the link I posted because, well, that's what they do.

Spot on and great analysis! Definitely an excellent study, showing murder rates in red states, debunking all those pundits.

[EihTooms]

The country is pretty darn evenly split. In the latest election in 2022, Republicans got 50.6% of the popular vote in House elections, compared to 47.8% for Democrats. Biden won the 2020 election with 51.3%, compared to 46.8% for Trump. And there are a lot of people, like me, who identify as Republicans and wouldn't vote for Trump for dogcatcher.

So what are you implying? That America is blue? That Democrats would win presidential elections by significant margins, say greater than 10 percentage points (e.g. 55% to 45%) if Republicans didn't cheat? Well that sounds a lot like Sidney Powell or Lin Wood.

BTW, you're cherry picking, and you're not even getting that right. Republicans actually won more votes than Democrats in two presidential elections since 1988. Your and Spidy's hands must be permanently died red, from picking cherries..

I am implying that an assertion by JustTK or anyone else that Dems "Keep losing" to any other Party for any reason is utter hogwash. Not "regularly", not "lately", not "currently", not "recently", not "routinely" or any slippery greased eel loony QAnon Repub parsing, cherry-picking, word-twisting qualifier you conjure up.

The Dem POTUS candidate won more votes than any candidate of any other Party in:

1992.

1996.

2000.

2008.

2012.

2016.

2020.

That is 7 out of the past 8 POTUS elections.

The only other Party that won more votes than any of the rest since 1988 was The Repub Party, in 2004.

That is 1 out of the past 8 POTUS elections.

And that candidate squeaked into a win on the votes with the historically proven advantage as an incumbent and as a "Wartime President", thanks entirely to a Repub SCOTUS awarding him that incumbent status despite him getting fewer votes than the Dem candidate and his colossal National Security negligence, blunders and lies plunging us into his counterproductive, quagmire Wars in the first place.

Additionally, the most beloved, revered and iconic Repub Party Leader and so-called potus of all time just recently presided over the LOSS of the Presidency, the LOSS of the House and the LOSS of the Senate, to the Dems, in his one, twice Impeached so-called potus term, a triumph of LOSS for Repubs and a WIN for Dems that has not occurred for any Party since 1932, ninety years ago.

That is what I am implying.

[Tiny 12]

Tiny 12, you are doing God's work sir.

Thank you Brother Chris. Converting Democrats is hard, thankless work. I appreciate the encouragement.

...."I know this woman who is 6 feet tall, or that woman who can bench 200 pounds, therefore there is no difference between men and women".

Or like cutting a highlight reel of every Tom Brady interception and sack, then showing it to people and trying to argue it proves he's a terrible quarterback.

BTW thanks for the memories Tom the GOAT. A shining example of old school American manhood for us all to look up to.

Yes Chris, our Democratic friends here, who are smart people, are not blessed with mathematical or analytical skills equal to their writing abilities. I'm probably on a fool's mission, trying to teach them about Simpson's Paradox.

Chicago has some of the most restrictive anti-gun laws in America.

We were discussing Switzerland earlier, where citizens are issued rifles. The homicide rate there is around 0.5 to 0.6 per 100,000 per year. That's among the lowest in Europe.

It's about 5 in the USA, and in the range of 25 to 43 for the counties in the table I linked to below.

[Tiny 12]

If you have done all that work, fine. Why not simply publish it here so that we all can see it? But you won't because you haven't done the work. You simply make up stuff and challenge others to do what you won't or can't do.

By the way, the link I published here was valid. They took "red states", stripped out the murders in the largest "blue city" in that state and found that the murder rate of the state was high. What you want to do with your challenge is to segregate the data down to the county level. What that dataset will show, of course, is that virtually to county, blue counties are urban and have a higher crime rate than red counties which are primarily rural. Hell, why don't you take the data all the way down to the block? I'll bet you'd find that some blocks have higher murder rates than others, even in red counties.

If you have a problem with the study I posted, fine. But if you have a problem with it, simply do your own challenge and post the results here. I'll wait.

I addressed all that in Post 11744 below. If you still don't get it, there's not much I can do. As to your idea about going down to a block level, I've done better than that. I've gone down to the individual level. See post 11676, "7 times more Democrat than Republican Felons."

[Tiny 12]

The "since 1980" part of your post stirred interest and I looked at your link. It appears that Reagan's victory in 1984, with a margin of almost 17 million votes, have skewed the margin of victory numbers BY A LOT.

Also, since 1980 Republicans have won the majority of the vote in 1980,1984 and 1988 and 2004. That's 4. Democrats won the majority of the votes in 1992,1996, 2004,2008 and 2020. That's 5.

And the only candidates to win the EC and loose the popular vote were W and Donnie the Dumbass. Since 1888, that is.

About Reagan and the 1980 starting date, yes, I already said I was cherry picking. How come Tooms gets to cherry pick and I don't?

The Democratic candidate got 43.0%, 49.2% and 48.3% of the popular vote in 1992,1996 and 2004 respectively. Please note that a majority is greater than 50%. Democratic candidates didn't get majorities in those years, and in fact lost the popular and electoral vote in 2004. What I wrote was correct.

You guys seem to have one set of rules for Democrats who post here and another for the rest of us.

Correct, George W. Bush lost the popular vote by 0.5% and Trump lost by 2.1% in 2000 and 2016 respectively, but they won the electoral vote. Every time those two ran, I voted for the Libertarian, as I thought they were poor candidates.

[Tiny 12]

I bet half the forum here STILL thinks masks work.

Yeah, I do. I read the first link, and it wasn't convincing. They only have low to moderate confidence in their conclusions, and their data is mostly drawn from influenza studies. You may recall that the CDC's and Fauci's reason for telling us masks weren't useful initially was because that's what the influenza studies indicated. OK, yes the reason probably really was they didn't want the public using masks while there was a shortage among health care workers. And they figured the public could just stay home and not work or go to school anyway, haha. Anyway, the reading I did a couple of years ago indicated good quality masks worn correctly did help prevent COVID 19 and SARS transmission.

I will continue to wear KN95 masks when in crowded settings where nobody knows me. (I don't like being a laughingstock.) And I'll continue to get boosters until such time as there's evidence sufficient to convince me they're a bad idea. I don't see the downside in either, and I see a lot of upside. I've only gotten a cold once since COVID kicked off. I used to get about 3 a year. Part of that is probably from wearing KN95 and N95 masks correctly (with a good seal) when appropriate.

[Tiny 12]

PVMonger, I shall again offer your the Tiny Triple Combo. A fine tequila, a fine meal, and a fine time in an estetica masculina. This challenge will take a lot more work, but is probably doable with DOJ or FBI and MIT Election Lab data. Determine which presidential candidate won in 2020 in each county. So you'll have a list of "red" counties and "blue" counties. Determine the total number of homicides in 2019 or 2021 (to avoid COVID effect) in each of the red counties and each of the blue counties. Sum them. Divide by the total population of red and blue counties respectively. If the homicide rate for the red counties is greater than the blue counties, you win the Tiny Triple Combo. Spidy, the offer is open to you too.

As I don't want you gentlemen to waste a huge amount of time on a losing proposition, here are the ten counties in the USA with the highest homicide rates in 2017, from the source linked below, and the margin by which Biden won each in 2020.

1. Orleans Parish, Louisiana 68.2%.

2. Coahoma County, Mississippi 42.9%.

3. Phillips County, Arkansas 19.3%.

4. tie St. Louis City, Missouri 66.2%.

4. tie Baltimore City, Maryland 76.6%.

6. Petersburg, Virginia 76.5%.

7. tie Macon County, Alabama 63.8%.

7. tie Washington, D.C. 86.7%.

9. Washington County, Mississippi 39.6%.

9. Dallas County, Alabama 37.5%.

https://www.police1.com/ambush/artic...WgaEUmxJkn74J/

Based on the list above, there are definitely counties with small populations out there run by Democrats that are about as dangerous as any of the blue cities. And yes, in the top 10 list, those counties are mostly in red states. Remember Simpson's Paradox.

So yes indeed PVMonger, if you remove the largest cities in places like Mississippi and Alabama, the homicide rate in those states will probably still be higher than average for the USA because of all the murders in blue counties there.

[PVMonger]

The country is pretty darn evenly split. In the latest election in 2022, Republicans got 50.6% of the popular vote in House elections, compared to 47.8% for Democrats. Biden won the 2020 election with 51.3%, compared to 46.8% for Trump. And there are a lot of people, like me, who identify as Republicans and wouldn't vote for Trump for dogcatcher.

So what are you implying? That America is blue? That Democrats would win presidential elections by significant margins, say greater than 10 percentage points (e.g. 55% to 45%) if Republicans didn't cheat? Well that sounds a lot like Sidney Powell or Lin Wood.

BTW, you're cherry picking, and you're not even getting that right. Republicans actually won more votes than Democrats in two presidential elections since 1988. Your and Spidy's hands must be permanently died red, from picking cherries.

Please allow me to also cherry pick. Since 1980, Republican presidential candidates have won the majority of the vote in four elections and Democrats have won the majority in three. Furthermore, over that period, the average margin of victory in the popular vote by Republicans was 9.53%, compared to 5.93% for the Democrats.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...ar_vote_margin

That said, granted, perhaps JustTK should have chosen different words. A better way to phrase the question would be why aren't Democrats kicking Republican's asses at the polls if you're right.

The "since 1980" part of your post stirred interest and I looked at your link. It appears that Reagan's victory in 1984, with a margin of almost 17 million votes, have skewed the margin of victory numbers BY A LOT.

Also, since 1980 Republicans have won the majority of the vote in 1980,1984 and 1988 and 2004. That's 4. Democrats won the majority of the votes in 1992,1996, 2004,2008 and 2020. That's 5. I may not be looking at the same numbers but since vote majorities are negative numbers if they are less, maybe not.

And the only candidates to win the EC and loose the popular vote were W and Donnie the Dumbass. Since 1888, that is.

[PVMonger]

The country is pretty darn evenly split. In the latest election in 2022, Republicans got 50.6% of the popular vote in House elections, compared to 47.8% for Democrats. Biden won the 2020 election with 51.3%, compared to 46.8% for Trump. And there are a lot of people, like me, who identify as Republicans and wouldn't vote for Trump for dogcatcher.

So what are you implying? That America is blue? That Democrats would win presidential elections by significant margins, say greater than 10 percentage points (e.g. 55% to 45%) if Republicans didn't cheat? Well that sounds a lot like Sidney Powell or Lin Wood.

BTW, you're cherry picking, and you're not even getting that right. Republicans actually won more votes than Democrats in two presidential elections since 1988. Your and Spidy's hands must be permanently died red, from picking cherries.

Please allow me to also cherry pick. Since 1980, Republican presidential candidates have won the majority of the vote in four elections and Democrats have won the majority in three. Furthermore, over that period, the average margin of victory in the popular vote by Republicans was 9.53%, compared to 5.93% for the Democrats.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...ar_vote_margin

That said, granted, perhaps JustTK should have chosen different words. A better way to phrase the question would be why aren't Democrats kicking Republican's asses at the polls if you're right.

The "since 1980" part of your post stirred interest and I looked at your link. It appears that Reagan's victory in 1984, with a margin of almost 17 million votes, have skewed the margin of victory numbers BY A LOT.

Also, since 1980 Republicans have won the majority of the vote in 1980,1984 and 1988 and 2004. That's 4. Democrats won the majority of the votes in 1992,1996, 2004,2008 and 2020. That's 5.

And the only candidates to win the EC and loose the popular vote were W and Donnie the Dumbass. Since 1888, that is.

[Chris P]

That's just not true. I direct you again to this link.

https://www.jsr.org/index.php/path/a...1371/1108/7732

Cities with Democratic mayors suffered violent crime at an 81% higher level than cities with Republican mayors for the 100 largest cities. Violent crime rates were higher in blue cities for the 20 most populated cities, the 21st through 50th largest cities, and the 51st to 100th largest cities.

Cities can't pass gun control laws? You have an awful lot of confidence in how gun laws can reduce crime rates.

Chicago has some of the most restrictive anti-gun laws in America. They do nothing to stop black people shooting each other en masse every week.

[PVMonger]

I didn't disparage it before PVMonger. I was kind and gentle:

But if it's disparagement you want, it's disparagement you shall get. While I may differ with Elvis and others here on COVID issues, none have attempted to argue with me about Simpson's Paradox as it relates to vaccine data. You guys keep coming back to the same fallacies. Are you really that different from those who believe Venezuela controls Dominion voting machines and the COVID vaccines have killed tens of millions, when it comes to separating reality from bull shit?

Policing is done at the local level. All the "state police" do where I live is hand out traffic tickets.

PVMonger, I shall again offer your the Tiny Triple Combo. A fine tequila, a fine meal, and a fine time in an estetica masculina. This challenge will take a lot more work, but is probably doable with DOJ or FBI and MIT Election Lab data. Determine which presidential candidate won in 2020 in each county. So you'll have a list of "red" counties and "blue" counties. Determine the total number of homicides in 2019 or 2021 (to avoid COVID effect) in each of the red counties and each of the blue counties. Sum them. Divide by the total population of red and blue counties respectively. If the homicide rate for the red counties is greater than the blue counties, you win the Tiny Triple Combo. Spidy, the offer is open to you too.

If you have done all that work, fine. Why not simply publish it here so that we all can see it? But you won't because you haven't done the work. You simply make up stuff and challenge others to do what you won't or can't do.

By the way, the link I published here was valid. They took "red states", stripped out the murders in the largest "blue city" in that state and found that the murder rate of the state was high. What you want to do with your challenge is to segregate the data down to the county level. What that dataset will show, of course, is that virtually to county, blue counties are urban and have a higher crime rate than red counties which are primarily rural. Hell, why don't you take the data all the way down to the block? I'll bet you'd find that some blocks have higher murder rates than others, even in red counties.

If you have a problem with the study I posted, fine. But if you have a problem with it, simply do your own challenge and post the results here. I'll wait.

[Chris P]

https://www.cochranelibrary.com/cdsr...6207.pub6/full

Compared with wearing no mask in the community studies only, wearing a mask may make little to no difference in how many people caught a flu like illness / COVID like illness (9 studies; 276,917 people); and probably makes little or no difference in how many people have flu / COVID confirmed by a laboratory test (6 studies; 13,919 people). Unwanted effects were rarely reported; discomfort was mentioned.

N95/ P2 respirators.

Four studies were in healthcare workers, and one small study was in the community. Compared with wearing medical or surgical masks, wearing N95/ P2 respirators probably makes little to no difference in how many people have confirmed flu (5 studies; 8407 people); and may make little to no difference in how many people catch a flu‐like illness (5 studies; 8407 people), or respiratory illness (3 studies; 7799 people). Unwanted effects were not well reported; discomfort was mentioned.

Following a hand hygiene programme may reduce the number of people who catch a respiratory or flu‐like illness, or have confirmed flu, compared with people not following such a programme (19 studies; 71,210 people), although this effect was not confirmed as statistically significant reduction when ILI and laboratory confirmed ILI were analysed separately. Few studies measured unwanted effects; skin irritation in people using hand sanitiser was mentioned.

This was referenced in the zero hedge article.

And a Tweet was referenced to a guy who is pushing all the right buttons on Covid and he asks:

https://twitter.com/ianmSC/status/1618321365089800192.

Great forensic post Elvis.

It is coming out now how utterly destructive and wrongheaded the covid scamdemic was on so many levels.

The masks didn't work, the vaccines didn't work, the lockdowns didn't work.

Or rather, they didn't work in their stated aims. What they did do was destroy centuries-old liberties, cripple businesses and the middle class, add trillions to the debt, retard kids' development, and lead to an awful lot of #DiedSuddenly. Which was perhaps the intention all along.

[Chris P]

Your first article describes a nationwide increase in violent crime during 2020, probably a result of the pandemic. Yes there was a 25% increase in homicides in rural levels. But the article also states there was a 30% increase in homicide rates in metropolitan levels, from a much higher level.

As to your second article, how many articles did you have to read to come up with that one year anomaly, in 2016? Go to the WSJ article your link is describing and look at the graph:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/nothing...ffs-1526122800

The graph shows violent crime rates are much lower in rural and suburban areas than urban areas for all years. From 2015 to 2016, the rate of violent crimes per 1,000 people for all categories jumps:

Rural: 14.5 to 21.5.

Suburban: 17.5 to 15.5.

Urban: 23 to 30.

Well, the numbers have come down. Here are the numbers for 2021, from the Department of Justice:

Urban: 24.5 victims per 1000 population.

Suburban: 16.5.

Rural: 11.1.

So the rate of violent crime in 2021 was 120% higher in urban areas than rural areas.

https://bjs.ojp.gov/content/pub/pdf/cv21.pdf

Another good post.

Everyone living in reality knows that violent crime is massively higher in black urban areas.

These dem douche leftists who attempt to deny it with idiotic twisted arguments are like the pro-tranny lobby who say "I know this woman who is 6 feet tall, or that woman who can bench 200 pounds, therefore there is no difference between men and women".

Or like cutting a highlight reel of every Tom Brady interception and sack, then showing it to people and trying to argue it proves he's a terrible quarterback.

BTW thanks for the memories Tom the GOAT. A shining example of old school American manhood for us all to look up to.