American Politics

[EihTooms]

Say you decide you want to start running the mile when you're in your mid 20's. The first time you go out to the track, it takes you 7 minutes. You do it a while, maybe a month or two, and your time goes down to 5-1/2 minutes. That's all well and good. Now, how long is it going to take you to get to 5 minutes? Will you ever do it?

It's the same with employment numbers. How many people have you got left to fill jobs as you get closer to full employment? The unemployment rate was 4. 7% when Obama left office, which is pretty respectable. It was 3. 5% in February, 2020, before we were feeling the effects of COVID. 3. 5% was the lowest we'd seen since 1969, and we haven't seen significantly lower numbers since the early 1950's.

Also, the wind was at our back, in terms of demographics. The working aged population increased by 2. 3 million during the three year period from 2013 to 2016. It only increased by 270,000 during the 3 years from 2017 to 2020. There were more working aged people entering the work force to fill jobs during the last three years of the Obama administration..

And then with the wind at your back you jumped through 3 flaming hoops in a row and, behold, Great Repub Recessions and Massive Job Losses are no different than Great Dem Recoveries, Expansions and Historic Job Gains!

Fine. Then you might as well stop voting from now on because you can't tell the difference in the results of either Party anyway. Too many nit-picky irrelevant details have led you unavoidably to that conclusion. Congratulations.

[Tiny 12]

So says leading economist Jeremy Siegel.

I see Siegel agrees with Summers and me that the earliest cause of persistently high inflation in the wake of Trump's Pandemic's global economic destruction is that Trump's Fed Chairman appointment was just not good at his job.

Wharton's Siegel says Jerome Powell owes 'the American people an apology'

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/26/whar...ndroidappshare

Powell is certainly no Carter appointee, Paul Volker, who manipulated rates early and effectively enough beginning in late 1979 to establish a steady month-over-month decline in inflation starting in early 1980, almost a full year before Reagan took office.

And he barely triggered a recession in Carter's strong, job-creating economy at all. It was over just a few weeks after it began.

Hey, I agree completely, that the Fed was asleep at the wheel. It's curious we're in agreement, because you support the Biden administration's extremely loose fiscal policy while you slam the Fed's extremely loose monetary policy. I can only figure it's because you somehow believe you can solely blame Jerome Powell for monetary policy, and let the other governors and the Fed bureaucracy off the hook. And, you believe since Trump originally elevated Powell to Chairman, Trump is somehow indirectly responsible. However, you fail to note that Obama originally appointed Powell to the Fed's Board of Governors. And you somehow brush off the fact that Biden re-appointed him as Chairman. You're really having to jump through hoops to blame Fed policy and inflation on Donald Trump.

Since Biden became president, there have only been two dissenting votes when the Fed Open Market Committee was setting the fed funds rate. Bullard wanted to increase the rate 0.5% instead of 0.25% in March, 2022, and George voted to increase 0.50% instead of 0.75% in June, 2022. Lael Brainard, the Vice Chair of the Fed who progressives were promoting to replace Powell, has voted with Powell and the majority every time.

Here's a link.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Histor...mittee_actions

And as to jumping through hoops, painting Volker, a Carter appointee, as one of the heroes who savaged inflation (which I agree with btw) while elsewhere pinning the blame on Reagan for the 1981/1982 recession takes the cake.

About my last reply to one of your posts, I forgot to include a link for population growth in the 18 to 64 year old age group. Since you like to see supporting links, here's one.

https://datacenter.kidscount.org/dat...03/13515,13516.

[Spidy]

Moron brigade? Werent you just the smelly vagina complaining to the admin about this very thing, I see you think its ok, but when others respond in kind.

You try to scream to mommy for help, so very typical from Dems.

When it comes to whining to the Admin/Mods, you QAnon/Repub/Bothsidesist, take "the orange cake".

As noted here:

And there it is again, attacking the messenger.

Mod, can you ban this troll please?

Talk about whining like a "smelly pussy"-cat, when "the message" is the truth and is too much to bear for the uninitiated.

Typical, for most QAnon/Repub/Bothsidesist, when the truth hurts and all that's left, is a not too subtle cry for "h-e-l-p" to the Admin/Mods.

Anywho, Brother, whine on!

[Elvis 2008]

Really? "By every measure, the Dems did worse economically with the pandemic than Republicans did.".

Tell me again that President Biden has lost more jobs than Donnie the Dumbass and provide a source that proves it. Unless, of course, you don't consider "jobs lost during the pandemic" to be either an economic factor or a pandemic factor.

I'll wait, gladly.

Trump and Biden's policies during the Pandemic were practically identical. What was a little different with Biden was more mask mandates, testing prior to returning to the USA, and pushing people to get vaccinated. None of which had much of an economic impact.

The economic differences were at the state level and economically there was a huge difference with regards to red and blue states.

[Elvis 2008]

However, I must quibble about "other portions of inflation are not on him." Look at what Larry Summers, the most influential Democratic Party economist of the last 30 years, was saying before and after Biden et al passed the American Rescue Plan. He said it would supercharge inflation. And it did. I posted this before and it bears repeating.

"Larry Summers, the top economic adviser to former President Obama, warned in an op-ed on Friday that President Biden's proposed COVID-19 relief package is too big and could overheat the economy. Summers, the Treasury secretary under former President Clinton, wrote in The Washington Post that the proposed $1. 9 trillion stimulus could ignite inflationary pressures "of a kind we have not seen in a generation." He said the risk of inflation could have "consequences for the dollar and financial stability." "Stimulus measures of the magnitude contemplated are steps into the unknown," Summers wrote.

I have no issue with your facts, Tiny. Thing is Trump did huge giveaways too and the Fed added $3 trillion to its balance sheet. Outside of oil, I would say the blame with inflation goes three ways then: on Trump, on Biden, and on the Fed with each getting 1/3 of the blame outside of energy. Add in energy and at least half of the inflation mess is on Biden.

I just do not want to engage in the cheap shots like Eih does, calling Chair Powell, Trump appointee Powell. Powell was kept on as Chair by Biden: https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-...as-vice-chair/.

This is what I call the Dems here dumb Dems. In their eyes, the only bad people in government are Republicans. Now that Powell is being demonized, it is not Biden's Powell but Trump's Powell.

[Tiny 12]

Obamas Last Three Years Of Job Growth All Beat Trumps Best Year

https://www.forbes.com/sites/chuckjo...h=764e7d306ba6

Did Obamas Last 3 Years See More Jobs Created Than Trumps First 3?
TRUE

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/ob...re-jobs-trump/

Say you decide you want to start running the mile when you're in your mid 20's. The first time you go out to the track, it takes you 7 minutes. You do it a while, maybe a month or two, and your time goes down to 5-1/2 minutes. That's all well and good. Now, how long is it going to take you to get to 5 minutes? Will you ever do it?

It's the same with employment numbers. How many people have you got left to fill jobs as you get closer to full employment? The unemployment rate was 4. 7% when Obama left office, which is pretty respectable. It was 3. 5% in February, 2020, before we were feeling the effects of COVID. 3. 5% was the lowest we'd seen since 1969, and we haven't seen significantly lower numbers since the early 1950's.

Also, the wind was at our back, in terms of demographics. The working aged population increased by 2. 3 million during the three year period from 2013 to 2016. It only increased by 270,000 during the 3 years from 2017 to 2020. There were more working aged people entering the work force to fill jobs during the last three years of the Obama administration.

And that was before Trump's disastrous economic decisions and stewardship back to 2018 and all through 2020 wiped out millions upon millions of jobs.

Which, as we all know, is the classic outgoing Repub hand off to the incoming Dem.

You may recall that I pulled Bloomberg data showing the USA had the smallest decline in GDP in the year ended 12/31/2020 of the five largest developed economies. I could try something similar for employment but since you question the veracity of the data I don't see the point. As to 2018 and 2019, equating lower corporate tax rates and deregulation with job losses is really topsy turvy. The Republicans' corporate tax cut and deregulation created jobs.

You don't have to live in a hyperpartisan world. Look,

Biden and the Democrats' move to negotiate drug prices for Medicare was long overdue.

Biden did not steal the 2020 election.

Biden is not the head of a crime syndicate that has taken billions in payoffs from Communist China.

Biden did not get the attorney general of Ukraine fired to help his son.

That was easy. You should try something similar.

[EihTooms]

The charts, graphs and data on this site comparing Obama's economy vs Trump's economy on most of the important metrics only go to the end of 2019, the "good" Trump years. So they don't even reflect Trump's final year where all of his worst economic decisions, crap stewardship and lies came home to roost and virtually all of the upward trajectories he inherited from Obama-Biden and coasted on until something challenging finally occurred went to total shit.

But all of the evidence, data and record of results throughout Trump's only "good" years clearly prove he most certainly did not build that good economy, he inherited it:

Donald Trump
stated on February 4, 2020:
"Years of economic decay are over" because Trump "reversed the failed economic policies of the previous administration."
FALSE

https://www.politifact.com/factcheck...under-donald-/

Oh, and about that supposedly "roaring Stock market" under Trump where, sure enough, it appears the gains were somewhat bigger under Trump than under Obama.

Would you like to know why that happened?

Yep, we were warned by the Dems that did not vote for that crap legislation that this would happen when Trump and his Repubs handed the American taxpayer a bill for about $2. 5 Trillion for their god awful Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. And, sure enough, this is exactly what happened:

What did corporate America do with that tax break? Buy record amounts of its own stock.
The White House promised '70 percent' of the tax cut would go to workers. It didn't.

https://www.nbcnews.com/business/eco...mounts-n886621

The Republican tax reform package that was supposed to raise wages and spur hiring has instead funded a record stock buyback and dividend spree, benefiting investors and company executives over workers.

So, for those out there who cannot connect 2 dots, allow me to help you. The $2. 5 Trillion bill Trump handed to the American taxpayer did NOT create more jobs. In fact, Trump's economy created 1. 5 million fewer jobs with it than without it during Trump's only "good" years until his economy wiped out millions upon millions of jobs at the Trump-to-Biden classic Repub hand off. It did NOT raise wages greater than the Obama-Biden economy did without it. It did NOT produce so much as a half a percentage point of increased GDP growth with it than without it.

It BOUGHT back stocks for corporate bigwigs in their own companies. LOL.

So whenever you see, hear or read someone crowing about those "great stock market gains" under Trump, now and forever you will know that was BOUGHT by the American taxpayer for a whopping $2. 5 Trillion along with the expense of FEWER jobs created, NO improvement in wages and NO noticeable improvement in GDP growth!

And now you know THE REST of the story.

[Canada]

Yes. Obama made it very easy for Trump to turn around the economy and drive income and stock market soaring. All he had to do was reverse all Obama policies and get rid of all the stupid regulations that Obama put on businesses. Just doing the exact opposite of Obama policies created record growth and employment and a great America. It just took Biden a few days to reverse Trump policies on immigration and energy to get us in this disastrous presidency and economy. Yes Biden is stupid. Yes Biden is Incompetent. But the people that support and defend him are much dumber.

Yes. Not only were big corporations affected with dumb Obama policies but small businesses as well. Trump reversing Obama policies were a blessing for small business. Trump decisions helped small business and led Americans into prosperity. But even though Obama was bad for Americans just look what the incompetent idiot Biden is doing. He even makes Obama look half decent. Biden is confident democrats are to stupid to see that inflation and open borders are bad for them.

[EihTooms]

Yes. Obama made it very easy for Trump to turn around the economy and drive income and stock market soaring. All he had to do was reverse all Obama policies and get rid of all the stupid regulations that Obama put on businesses. Just doing the exact opposite of Obama policies created record growth and employment and a great America. It just took Biden a few days to reverse Trump policies on immigration and energy to get us in this disastrous presidency and economy. Yes Biden is stupid. Yes Biden is Incompetent. But the people that support and defend him are much dumber.

Obamas Last Three Years Of Job Growth All Beat Trumps Best Year

https://www.forbes.com/sites/chuckjo...h=764e7d306ba6

Did Obamas Last 3 Years See More Jobs Created Than Trumps First 3?
TRUE

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/ob...re-jobs-trump/

FACT: New figures from Trumps own Department of Labor show that 6.6 million new jobs were created in the first 36 months of Trumps tenure, compared with 8.1 million in the final 36 months of Obamas ― a decline of 19% under Trump.

And that was before Trump's disastrous economic decisions and stewardship back to 2018 and all through 2020 wiped out millions upon millions of jobs.

Which, as we all know, is the classic outgoing Repub hand off to the incoming Dem.

[EihTooms]

As always well said and a great reminder of what a good stable economy looks like under good and great leadership, in the form of Clinton, Obama and Biden, portraying the basic tenants of good governing and having decorum and decency w/r to the long standing tradition and honor of the transference of power.

Donnie "the devil" J. Dummkopf, couldn't even spell "decency", let alone have enough of it, to do the honorable thing and perform the peaceful transference of power.

And we can not ignore the fact that Biden only had 51 potential votes in the Senate with 50 total deadbeat Repubs bent on little more than making their beloved lord and savior's horrific hand off even worse.

Biden could not ignore it.

Of course, Goldilocks Not Too Hot, Not Too Cold, Just Right For My Perfect World Larry Summers has never mentioned that factor.

Nor has he factored in the very good chance of things involving extreme weather conditions, flare ups of new and more virulent strains of Trump's Pandemic virus anywhere in the world, former nutty KGB World Leaders going nuttier, oh and how about whatever violent, explosive Domestic Terrorism acts might occur any minute incited and led by an even nuttier former so-called potus in the mix?

Gee, it just might turn out going a tad overboard rather than woefully under estimated on economic stimulus the one and only time you can bet on going to the well before that traditional 1st Midterm outcome comes around was really the best and most prudent option for a Real POTUS who knows he has no option to taste a bit of this porridge, a bit of that porridge and then the third porridge until he finds the exact right one before he heads up to the bedroom to test this mattress, then that one and on and on.

Goldilocks Summers and others like him can disregard those real world risks in order to opine in all directions what "could" happen if you create too many jobs and put too much money in the system in response to a totally new and unprecedented way for godawful Repub stewardship to destroy the economy and the country.

Biden can't.

[EihTooms]

Yes, GDP growth during Obama's terms wasn't anything special. It should have been exceptional, at least during the first term, given we were coming out of a deep recession. That's not to necessarily say Obama had much to do with that though. I have to give him and the Democrats in Congress credit for not raising taxes by rolling off the Bush tax cuts early, when they could have. Contrast with Biden who proposed raising taxes a lot in 2021, after another deep recession. Obama had some decent, although left of center, economic advisors like Larry Summers. Biden's more influenced by progressives, who are more interested in achieving progressive goals than sound management of the economy. Our Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen seems like she's willing to say whatever the White House wants her to.

We were not "coming out of a deep recession" on January 20,2009. We were deep in the middle of that particular Great Repub Recession. We would not be pulling out of it until the middle of Obama's first year in office. So all the total shit GWB to Obama hand off conditions and data up until at least that time unfairly landed on Obama's overall GDP and Jobs Creation record.

Or maybe, like Trump's Fed Chairman appointee, the problem was Larry Summers just wasn't very good at his job as Director of the National Economic Council from January 20,2009 to January 20,2011.

[EihTooms]

I read the New Yorker article a long time ago. Here's a google news search on "Larry Summers Inflation" for 12/15/2020 to 3/10/2021, before the American Rescue Plan was passed. It's hilarious reading the criticism of Summers coming from administration officials and other pundits. Well, Summers turned out to be dead right.

https://www.google.com/search?q=larry+summers+inflation&rlz=1 C1 CHBD_enUS898 US898&biw=1920&bih=969&source=lnt&tbs=cdr%3 A1%2 Ccd_min%3 A12%2 F1%2 F2020%2 Ccd_max%3 A03%2 F10%2 F2021&tbm=nws.

Maybe this will make sense to you. I'm quoting from the Financial Times, which is behind a paywall, so no link. This is Summers, in his own words, in an interview with Martin Wolf.

If you look at the economy at the beginning of this year, prevailing forecasts were that Covid would reduce wages and salaries to American households by $20 bn-$30 bn a month, with that figure declining over the year. So, that would be a $250 bn-$300 bn hole in wages and salaries over the course of the year.

So, I look at this hole and then I see $900 bn of stimulus in the December package, $1. 9 tn of stimulus in the recently passed package and $2 tn in the savings overhang, which is also likely to be spent. I see the Fed with its foot on the accelerator as hard as any Fed has ever done.

That could manifest itself, as a much smaller period of excess did during the Vietnam war, in rising inflation and a ratcheting-up of inflation expectations. It could, as has often happened, manifest itself in the Federal Reserve feeling a need for a sharp and surprising increase in interest rates, and the subsequent deceleration of the economy into recession.

It could manifest itself in a period of euphoric boom and optimism that leads to unsustainable bubbles, or it could all work out well. But, it doesn't seem to me that the preponderant probability is that it will work out well. So I'm concerned that what is being done is substantially excessive.

So you've got a $2 trillion savings overhang, wages reduced by $250 to $300 billion per year, and Biden et al helicopter drop $1. 9 trillion into the economy! That's almost 10% of GDP! Crazy! Nuts! No wonder the labor force participation rate hasn't bounced back to where it should be, despite there being 2X more job openings than people looking for jobs.

As to cherry picking Summers' scenarios, he said probably one of two things would happen.

1. High inflation and / or stagflation, or.

2. The Fed slams on the breaks so hard to prevent high inflation so that we go into a deep recession.

Well, "1" has already happened. "2" may be next. For completeness sake, the third possibility he threw out was that the Fed might adroitly avoid high inflation or recession. Well, that didn't come to pass.

"could, could, could. " Exactly the hedging all bets bit by Summers as cited by his critics.

And we "could" have an exceptionally bad Hurricane Season where my tax dollars will for the umpteenth time bail out deadbeat Repubs in Florida and Texas who crow about low taxes but can't ever seem to deal with their shit weather conditions on their own.

If that happens or if there is a new and unexpected virulent outbreak of Trump's Pandemic virus in key supply chain sources of the world or Putin decides to invade the United Kingdom, etc, at least we will have kept tens of thousands of businesses open and created millions more jobs along with the revenue generated with those Biden / Dem recovery measures that "could" have looked like too much to Mr. "could" Be Too Much or Too Hot For My Perfect World Summers but will definitely come in handy come emergency response time.

[MarquisdeSade1]

https://stormer-daily.rw/apple-to-mo...hina-to-india/

[MarquisdeSade1]

Yes, GDP growth during Obama's terms wasn't anything special. It should have been exceptional, at least during the first term, given we were coming out of a deep recession. That's not to necessarily say Obama had much to do with that though. I have to give him and the Democrats in Congress credit for not raising taxes by rolling off the Bush tax cuts early, when they could have. Contrast with Biden who proposed raising taxes a lot in 2021, after another deep recession. Obama had some decent, although left of center, economic advisors like Larry Summers. Biden's more influenced by progressives, who are more interested in achieving progressive goals than sound management of the economy. Our Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen seems like she's willing to say whatever the White House wants her to.

I have to give him and the Democrats in Congress credit.

He was too busy shooting hoops and smokin weed and having big parties snorting coke etc.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/o...elle-26jm0xq5g

Here's something in line with the rest of his self serving 8 yr ghost payroll gig.

https://www.aclu.org/press-releases/...cing-disparity

https://twitter.com/robrousseau/stat...93879392772102

https://www.politico.com/story/2016/...e-obama-233032

[Cali Guy]

Whenever we see a list like that we are only reminded what a fantastic great gift hand off Obama gave Trump vs the total shit hand off Trump gave Biden.

Yet Trump still managed to turn that gift hand off into total shit in just 4 years and Biden managed to turn that total shit hand off into a historically successful recovery in just 19 months.

Similar to the way George W. Bush managed to turn his gift hand off from Clinton into total shit and Obama turned the total shit hand off he got from George W. Bush into one of the longest and steadiest economic expansions and jobs creation runs ever.

That's quite a telling pattern. It's a pattern that has been repeating itself for about a century.

Thanks for the reminder.

Yes. Obama made it very easy for Trump to turn around the economy and drive income and stock market soaring. All he had to do was reverse all Obama policies and get rid of all the stupid regulations that Obama put on businesses. Just doing the exact opposite of Obama policies created record growth and employment and a great America. It just took Biden a few days to reverse Trump policies on immigration and energy to get us in this disastrous presidency and economy. Yes Biden is stupid. Yes Biden is Incompetent. But the people that support and defend him are much dumber.