Thread: American Politics
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01-06-22 17:52 #5869
Posts: 5452Originally Posted by EihTooms [View Original Post]
Case in point is how they spin Trump's stock market performance. The black highlights are mine.
Donald Trump's presidency was far from calm, and you could say the same for the stock market during his tenure. Equities just barely managed to avoid bear-market territory in Q4 2018, then ended up rallying for more than a year before suffering a dramatic (albeit quick) bear market in 2020.
Even then, Trump still managed to finish his single term as one of the top presidents by market performance, which was fueled in part by his Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. However, that performance also included a wild rally after Election Day 2020.
"The S&P 500 gained 11.8% in price from Election Day on November 3, 2020 through January 15, 2021 in what is now on track to become the best Election-to-Inauguration Day return for a first-term president since WWII," writes Sam Stovall, Chief Investment Strategist for CFRA, referring to Biden's pre-inauguration bump. "John F. Kennedy came in second with an 8.8% price rise, while Eisenhower was third with 6.3%. Conversely, Presidents Obama, Bush-43, and Nixon endured declines of 19.9%, 6.2%, and 1.4%, respectively."
And that first of his two Bear Market Crash declines began just 9 months after his god-awful waste of $2.5+ Trillion added to the deficit Tax Cuts and Jobs Act was signed and passed, something Kiplinger seems to think contributed to his ok stock market results. Oh please.
I would put the URL for the Yahoo! Finance Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index link right here for you to click on "Historical Data, Historical Prices" and put in those dates or a few days before and after them to see for yourselves. But there is some weird glitch going on with this site and when I do that the URL is huge. Like half a page. LOL. So just do a Google Search for that and it is easy to find.
And, second, check out how they try to make it appear as though "the best Election-to-Inauguration Day return for a first-term president since WWII" was some feather to put in Trump's cap! LOL. They are referring to the great rally after Biden won the 2020 election!
Now, I am not a believer in attributing anything that happens in the economy or the stock market to an incoming president starting on election day or inauguration day. Primarily because both of those metrics have never significantly changed the trajectory they were already on for months or years prior to those dates. What happens immediately after election day with a new incoming president has practically nothing to do with the person who won and who has not done anything yet.
OK, so a big decision is about to be made on an election day. Therefore, as usual anytime a big decision is about to be made or an important bit of news is about to be reported like the Jobs Numbers, a Fed Decision, an Election and so on, stock market investors hang back for often significant amounts of time prior to the decision being made or news reported and then once the decision is made they celebrate that the world did not come to an end after all and they simply resume either the buying or selling they were doing prior to the election period but with slightly more enthusiasm, trying to catch up. That is all that happens.
Those two trajectories didn't change notably starting on election day when FDR won, when Reagan won or when Obama won. They sure as hell weren't going to change significantly when Trump won in 2016 and were not likely to go nuts just because Biden won in 2020. Mainstream Media would have been working very hard to prevent that latter event from happening anyway. In the midst of Trump's Pandemic, Biden had to actually start doing something and passing some very important and effective economic stimulus for that to happen. He did and it happened.
And so I am sticking to that opinion and judgement even though it obviously helps Trump's overall record on the stock market to have benefitted from that historic stock market rally that started right after he was soundly defeated in a Trump-defined landslide election win for Joe Biden. Besides, all three of the most recent Dem presidents beat Trump's average annual stock market performance anyway.
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01-06-22 17:43 #5868
Posts: 428Amazing
Originally Posted by EihTooms [View Original Post]
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01-06-22 17:08 #5867
Posts: 1068Slickcharts
Originally Posted by EihTooms [View Original Post]
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01-06-22 14:32 #5866
Posts: 428Like I previously said
Originally Posted by EihTooms [View Original Post]
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01-06-22 14:20 #5865
Posts: 1068Why
Originally Posted by EihTooms [View Original Post]
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01-06-22 13:43 #5864
Posts: 1604I was correct
Originally Posted by Canada [View Original Post]
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01-06-22 05:28 #5863
Posts: 5452Originally Posted by Canada [View Original Post]
Klipinger just ran their Wall Street professional and financial industry standard S&P 500 Index measured ranking for the USA Stock Market performance per USA president right up to and including Biden's first year and, as expected, the average annual returns for Biden, Obama and Clinton each surpassed that of Trump, George W. Bush, George H. W. Bush and, what the hell, let's throw Reagan in there too.
With Biden being best.
https://www.kiplinger.com/investing/...e-stock-market
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01-06-22 03:27 #5862
Posts: 2344Originally Posted by MarquisdeSade1 [View Original Post]
I think so, but not all are voters.
Those gun owners need to behave themselves.
Or their asses will get out voted.
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01-06-22 03:10 #5861
Posts: 5452Something to consider when reading polls
Gallup poll shows largest increase in Democratic Party affiliation in a decade
April 7, 2021.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...de/7114860002/
A Dwindling Republican Party May Be Doomed to Shrink More
April 8, 2021.
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2021...21-gallup.html
From Gallup comes news that its regular polling on party affiliation shows the largest quarterly gap in major party affiliation since 2012, with 49 percent of U.S. adults identifying themselves as either Democrats (30 percent) or as Democratic-leaning independents (19 percent), while 40 percent call themselves Republicans (25 percent) or Republican-leaning independents (15 percent).
So when you see the polls of the past few months, it is worth noting if the polling service simply surveyed a roughly equal number of self-identified Dems, Repubs and Independents. If they did, then they were probably way over-sampling "Repub-leaning" respondents, which is a significantly smaller percentage of the American public and voters than those who are "Dem-leaning."
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01-06-22 02:45 #5860
Posts: 5452Originally Posted by Canada [View Original Post]
Dow Jones Returns by Year
https://www.slickcharts.com/dowjones/returns
2020 = +7.25%.
2019 = +22.34%.
2018 = -5.63%.
2017 = +25.08.
Average annual gain in the DOW during Trump's presidency = 12.26%.
Really, you guys should have gone with the Wall Street and financial industry standard for measuring the USA Stock market, the S&P 500 Index, instead of the DOW, which is the darling of typically lazy and far less informed and involved financial media. See, the lazy and far less informed financial media, the ones you guys apparently watch on tv and think that makes you "financial advisors", love the DOW because those 30 stocks provide of a lot of exciting volatility to report on every day. But real financial advisors and those involved daily in the canyons of Wall Street more properly refer to the S&P 500 Index for their measure. Just FYI.
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01-06-22 02:27 #5859
Posts: 5452Originally Posted by CaliGuy [View Original Post]
Yes, of course, all of those Great Repub Depressions / Recessions and Deep Bear Market Crashes of the past 100 years, the only ones America has suffered in all that time, were lovely buying opportunities for anyone who got out at the top, did not stay in the market to ride it all the way down and was flush with cash to buy back in at the bottom. Thanks for the kind of advice that anyone could have gotten on the back of a Bazooka Bubble Gum comic; Buy low and sell high. Really? But based on this and every other post of yours, I am quite sure your advice did not get your client out of the market at the top and have them wait until some unknown bottom to buy back in more often than perhaps one inadvertent lucky time.
And actually, you only told us half of the scenario for your supposedly failed clients. I mean, you do know there is another side of those transactions, right? If those clients had sold out when Trump came into office and then bought back in at or near the bottom of each of his two Bear Market Crashes, they would have done quite well vs buying and holding through 4 years of the average annual 16.8% gains we got during his Recession and Massive Jobs Loss-ridden four years in the Wall Street and industry standard for the broader USA Stock market, the S&P 500 Index. Did they?
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01-06-22 01:30 #5858
Posts: 428Not Fake News.
Originally Posted by PVMonger [View Original Post]
Not only Europe by China, Russia, Iran and North Korea all love USA now that Biden is president. It is the best case possible for them because Biden is not capable of holding these countries accountable like Trump did. With Trump USA was a powerhouse internationally but unfortunately now the weakling getting pushed around like we saw in the last 12 months. Glad you brought this up.
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01-06-22 01:23 #5857
Posts: 1068Election of Biden has created a great shift internationally
Originally Posted by PVMonger [View Original Post]
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01-05-22 23:47 #5856
Posts: 3852Currently reading this book. Anyone else ?
https://www.amazon.com/Changing-Worl...H&keywords=the+changing+world+order+ray+dalio&qid=1641422816&sprefix=the+changing+%2 Caps%2 C134&sr=8-1.
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01-05-22 23:15 #5855
Posts: 2579Cautionary tale alert, 400 million guns
Originally Posted by Xpartan [View Original Post]
My money is on the gun owners!
The 2 A provides for recourse when elections / democracy are being stolen!!
https://www.google.com/search?q=american+gun+owners&source=hp&ei=FRfWYdm3 JO2 iptQP4 aaZ6 Ag&iflsig=ALs-wAMAAAAAYdYlJQfk3 i74 HAUEeFCZzcyDlgi1 ahHJ&ved=0 ahUKEwiZlvWN0 Jv1 AhVtkYkEHWFTBo0 Q4 dUDCAk&uact=5&oq=american+gun+owners&gs_lcp=Cgdnd3 Mtd2 l6 EAMyBQgAEIAEMgUIABCABDIFCAAQgAQyBQgAEIAEMgUIABCABDIFCAAQgAQyBQgAEIAEMgUIABCABDIFCAAQgAQyBQgAEIAEOhEILhCABBCxAxCDARDHARDRAzoLCAAQgAQQsQMQgwE6 CAguELEDEIMBOgUILhCABDoOCC4 QgAQQsQMQxwEQ0 QM6 DgguEIAEELEDEMcBEKMCOgsILhCABBDHARCjAjoICAAQgAQQsQM6 CwguEIAEELEDEIMBOggILhCABBCxAzoOCC4 QgAQQsQMQxwEQrwE6 CwguEIAEEMcBEK8 BOgcIABCxAxAKOgoIABCxAxCxAxAKUABYpx9 g4 CBoAHAAeACAAcoEiAG0 K5 IBCzEuNS43 LjEuMi4 zmAEAoAEB&sclient=gws-wiz.
There are estimated to be over 400 million guns in the United States between police, the military, and American civilians. Over 393 Million (Over 98%) of those guns are in civilian hands, the equivalent of 120 firearms per 100 citizens. The average gun owning American has 5 firearms, while nearly 22% of gun owners only have a single firearm.