American Politics

[D Cups]

Amusing when someone accuses another person who has nearly double the number of posts that they do of being an interloper. But not surprising.

As if the number of posts in ISG means anything!

[Member #4698]

Raising Fed Funds / prime rates is how you tame hyper-inflation. You make the cost of borrowing money more expensive. You do that to slow down an otherwise overheated economy. That is why Carter appointed Paul Volker to be his Fed Chairman. Because Volker had a plan to tame hyper-inflation by raising the Fed Funds rate while not doing too much damage to jobs creation. Carter appointed him to do that in late 1979, knowing rising Fed Funds rates during 1980 would likely do great harm to him politically at election time. Reagan had nothing to do with bringing down hyper-inflation. Carter made the decision to appoint Volker to do it, shouldered all the heavy lifting for it, assumed all the political risk to do it.

As a side note on that subject, since you lived through those Carter and Reagan years, you must then remember that virtually anyone and everyone could deduct those high interest rates for everything from auto purchases to consumer debt re credit cards during the Carter years, just as you could and largely still can with mortgage loan interest rates. So when they had to be raised high in order to tame the effects of wage inflation in '79 and '80, most Americans, not just corporate executives with clever accountants, could reduce the bite of it come income tax time. But guess who put an end to that ability for regular rank and file American workers to take a tax deduction on ordinary consumer debt? You guessed right if you said Ronald Reagan.

The Iranian Revolution was triggered by Republican President Dwight Eisenhower's CIA overthrow of a duly democratically-elected leader of Iran in 1954 and installing the brutal Shah Pahlavi regime instead in order to keep oil prices to our liking. The Revolution was about Islamic Ayatollahs then overthrowing that brutal dictatorship, a slow and bloody 25 year march that happened to end in 1979 when Carter was president. Meanwhile, Carter got all of the USA Hostages out of Iran in exchange for nothing more than what already belonged to Iran before Reagan had a chance to screw that up more than he tried to screw it up in the days before the election. Quite a bit more positive outcome than when Reagan buckled under the slightest political risk pressure by illegally trading whatever arms Iran wanted for 7 hostages that were taken on his watch.

That Reagan event was one of a few under his watch when Iran and others in the Middle East learned you can actually come out ahead, not just break even, by causing mischief for the USA, depending on the spinal density of the commander in chief at the time.

The problem with the Reagan presidency is that it was catastrophic for anyone who was not a white male.

And BTW, Nixon and Bush I did more to defeat the Soviet Union than Reagan actually did.

Reagan did conquer the existential threat of Grenada, though, and he did prove that running up huge deficits is not problematic for the economy. A legacy that Obama has built on.

BTW, Natty, here's the bet I would propose, although the only place I could pay it off or collect on it would be in Tijuana: Over the course of the Trump Presidency, he adds fewer jobs to the economy than Obama did during his Presidency. It's A LOT easier to achieve a momentary growth rate of 3% when you're starting off with an economy that's been steady state at around 2% growth (actually it's been oscillating between 1 and 3.5%) than it is when you're starting off with a falling knife economy that's contracting at over 5% annualized, which is what Obama inherited.

And getting to over 3% briefly is nothing special, Obama did it several times. It's SUSTAINING 3% for a year or longer, and I will certainly bet that Trump does not accomplish that, unless he has Stephen Bannon fabricate some bogus fake statistics.

EihTooms, I am familiar with your alternative view of American history. Believe it or not I do have a couple left leaning friends. It is not always easy to stay above the fray with them. Ha Ha. One of my friends turned me on to Oliver Stone's 10 part documentary entitled "The Untold History of the United States. " I watched the whole thing twice. It was amazing to me how Stone could twist everything that has happened in America since 1944. It was also very instructive to get a clear understanding of how the left views American history. I have since turned on a couple of my laissez faire conservative friends to this enlightening documentary. I must reemphasize so there is no mistaking my view; I find the documentary extraordinary and enlightening, not because I agree with anything in it, but because it shows me how the left views recent American history. It is simply amazing.

Anyway, to my point, we could go back and forth a million times and you will not convince me of the truth in your philosophy and I will never convince you of the truth in mine. In addition, right now I have better, more important things on my mind, specifically I am in the middle of settling my business and personal affairs and getting ready to depart in less than a week for my next 10.5 week trip to La La Asian Pussyland. So, you guys won't hear too much from me in the next couple of months. I will try to drop an occasional short post covering what I am up to in the appropriate forums. On my last trip in 2016, I averaged 1.25 girls per day over 9. 5 weeks and believe me, I was running on empty as I wound things up the last 10 days in BKK. But I couldn't or wouldn't stop and say no to my girls. I had Mini, who for all intents and purposes is my BKK mistress, my 2 favorite CH girls, a naughty Mango girl, plus two NEW girls I had just met. The burning question I have for this next trip is will I slow down and proceed at a more normal, sustainable pace? The answer is HELL NO! So, guys, if you never hear from me again, I want you to know one thing, I died in bed with one or two girls by my side and a smile on my face. And I have no regrets about what I have done the last 20 years. 555. It has been a gas. I want my tombstone to read, "he loved young Asian girls."

Now back to the issue at hand; I offered you a gentleman's wager. I will now refine the bet: I predict that starting the 1st full quarter beginning 18 months after Trump's tax cut, whatever it may eventually turn out to be, is enacted into law AND simultaneously 18 months after Dodd Frank is repealed or significantly rolled back; the real GDP of the US will average 3% or higher for the next full year I. E. 4 consecutive quarters going forward. That means for example, one quarter may show a 2. 5% growth rate and the next three quarters might have a 3. 25% GDP growth rate thus the average would be 3. 06% and I would win the wager. I further refine the proposed amount of the wager to be a ST session with any GO GO girl in BKK or any bar girl on Burgos of the winner's choice. The wager does not include drinks or barfine, so it's approximately a $100 Gentlemen's wager.

The reason I propose this bet is twofold. 1st I want to make things a little interesting, and 2nd I want to illustrate to everybody here that none of us really know what the next 4 years or next 8 years will be like despite the rather strong opinions we all have. I am talking to you too GE! So, guys lets dial down the rhetoric and insults. What do you say?

Now who wants to take me up on my wager? EihTooms?, GE?, Member #2041? - I am sorry, but I can't extend the bet to include Tijuana. I spent a couple months in Mexico a long time ago and I did not like the country or the girls. But hey, this is the Philippine Forum. You really should try to visit the PI. The girls here are great. It is definitely worth the time and money involved to get here.

Adios Muchachos!

[Member #2041]

Amusing when someone accuses another person who has nearly double the number of posts that they do of being an interloper. But not surprising.

[D Cups]

Sure Obama had faults ... In a couple years when the stock market is at 12 K ... 20 million uninsured people ....it wasn't so bad under Obama.

Oh great! Another bleeding heart liberal predicting doom and gloom has joined the forum!

[Mr Gogo]

Hi Natty, I appreciate your efforts here but the democraps will always find an excuse for everything. It is always some Republican's fault no matter what. Their brains are hard wired to default to these fantasy fart factoids. If none exists just make it up and dazzle them with enormous amounts of every kind of animal shit you can imagine.

You sound silly! The best you can come up with is his dad leaving and his brother in Africa to make your argument as the worst US President? You conveniently give a pass to Bush who couldn't get Bin Ladin, who had the stock market at 7 k (its now at 20 k), who made up a war and later created ISIS, who had the unemployment at around 9%, and had shoes thrown at him in the Middle East. Sure Obama had faults but you only had to look at who was before him and the mess he had to clean up to at least give him credit for guiding us out of the greatest potential depression since WW2. Not to mention Congress vowing to make him fail before he got started and stopping his every move.

Its no problem though because the proof is in the pudding. In a couple years when the stock market is at 12 K and we are sending our troops of to useless wars and its war on American streets I will have this post of yours to make you out as someone who is very misinformed. Not to mention the burden 20 million uninsured people will have on our economy along with paying for a 20 billion dollar wall that will be an eyesore and a monument to people of how foolish and gullible some Americans truly are.

It's already affecting us personally as the travel industry is now taking a major hit with the immigration rule Trump tried to impose. People are becoming afraid to travel and look for these friendly countries that let us visit and bang their beautiful women to not be as accommodating to Americans in the future. Maybe when these foreign women and guys hate our guts and want to hurt us will you then realize that it wasn't so bad under Obama.

[D Cups]

You are a fool for believing that, GE. In a world of Kardashians be an Ivanka.

There's another admittedly intangible feature called grace and dignity that the Obamas bought to the White House; f

GE.

.

[D Cups]

So much here to disagree with, so little time.

Hi Natty, I appreciate your efforts here but the democraps will always find an excuse for everything. It is always some Republican's fault no matter what. Their brains are hard wired to default to these fantasy fart factoids. If none exists just make it up and dazzle them with enormous amounts of every kind of animal shit you can imagine.

[D Cups]

Top 10 obummer blunders.

10. I can't find my birth certificate! Well it might be in Indonesia but since daddy split before I was born I don't really know.

9. My brother lives in a shack somewhere in Africa. I'the like to send him some USA Taxpayer money but he doesn't have an address.

8. The constitution? Well let me rewrite it with these here executive orders.

7. Crime? What crime? I'll just ignore it and hope it goes away. Good to out of Chicago, tho.

6. Let's take Air Force One to a ballgame in Cuba! That's got to be better than dealing with world crises! Oh! And while I'm there I can let more of my terrorist buddies out of Guantanamo so they can plan their next attack! Brilliant!

5. Fuck the economy! We can always borrow more trillions from China!

4. I know, let's build a healthcare system that is SO COMPLEX that NO ONE understands it! As long it has my name on it and it benefits member number 2041 (my loyal, blithering sychophant) that's all that matters!

3. Fuck the military! Let me downsize this to the bone so I can give away more free phones, free food, free housing, free transportation, free healthcare, etc. To all the freeloaders who voted for me!

2. I hate the Clintons but if Hillary gets elected maybe I can milk even more bucks out of these stupid democrats!

1. Let's see. What can I do as a grand finale to my presidency? I know! I'll send $220 million to our enemies in Syria! I'll do it AN HOUR before inauguration because everyone will be so busy that NO ONE will notice! I'the like to send more but $220 M should be Good Enough.

EPILOGUE.

Well, I tried to destroy America, I really did my best to try to destroy America, but those Republicans, there's just too many of them! Let me see if I can find my brother in Africa and slip him a few bucks.

EXIT. FADE OUT. CLOSE CURTAIN. NO APPLAUSE.

The legacy of obummer: WORST president in the history of USA.

[D Cups]

Yes, play the race card, 2041. It is the only one in your hand.

The problem with the Reagan presidency is that it was catastrophic for anyone who was not a white male.

.

[D Cups]

What a great discussion going on here! Yes, GE, start your own country. You can be Lord of the Fart Factory.

It's an unwinnable battle, which is why I suggest that those of us who still believe in empiricism start our own country.

GE.

.

[GoodEnough]

Quite so. The spread between where all of the classic economic metrics were tanking in January 2009 and where they were in January 2017 on the positive side is astonishing! Annualized quarterly GDP had contracted by more than -8%! The final number for 2017 will likely be near +2%, the rate it has been hovering around for the past couple years. While most of the rest of the world has not done as well and is dragging our economy down along the way. That's a whopping 10 percentage point improvement. Seriously, it has not been done before (except by FDR) and will not be duplicated much less bested by any Republican president going forward unless he / she dumps everything Republican economic philosophy stands for and adopts everything Democratic economic philosophy stands for. And it sure as hell won't be accomplished by Donald Trump.

Of course, the special made-up conservative Republican "law" over the past 8 years is we're never supposed to compare what was happening when Obama took office to what is happening now and has been happening for years under his economic stewardship. Whenever you mention what was happening when Obama took office, hey that's "blaming Bush", don'tcha' know. LOL. No, it is the way anything meaningful is measured; how does it compare today with what was happening before.

While to rational folks, these arguments are compelling, in the end you're using "facts" and "science" to convince people who believe in neither. Facts are no longer undeniable in an era of "alternative facts," characterized by the mystical "Creationism" being taught as an "alternative" to the scientific fact of evolution. It's an unwinnable battle, which is why I suggest that those of us who still believe in empiricism start our own country.

GE.

[EihTooms]

BTW, Natty, here's the bet I would propose, although the only place I could pay it off or collect on it would be in Tijuana: Over the course of the Trump Presidency, he adds fewer jobs to the economy than Obama did during his Presidency. It's A LOT easier to achieve a momentary growth rate of 3% when you're starting off with an economy that's been steady state at around 2% growth (actually it's been oscillating between 1 and 3.5%) than it is when you're starting off with a falling knife economy that's contracting at over 5% annualized, which is what Obama inherited.

And getting to over 3% briefly is nothing special, Obama did it several times. It's SUSTAINING 3% for a year or longer, and I will certainly bet that Trump does not accomplish that, unless he has Stephen Bannon fabricate some bogus fake statistics.

Quite so. The spread between where all of the classic economic metrics were tanking in January 2009 and where they were in January 2017 on the positive side is astonishing! Annualized quarterly GDP had contracted by more than -8%! The final number for 2017 will likely be near +2%, the rate it has been hovering around for the past couple years. While most of the rest of the world has not done as well and is dragging our economy down along the way. That's a whopping 10 percentage point improvement. Seriously, it has not been done before (except by FDR) and will not be duplicated much less bested by any Republican president going forward unless he / she dumps everything Republican economic philosophy stands for and adopts everything Democratic economic philosophy stands for. And it sure as hell won't be accomplished by Donald Trump.

Of course, the special made-up conservative Republican "law" over the past 8 years is we're never supposed to compare what was happening when Obama took office to what is happening now and has been happening for years under his economic stewardship. Whenever you mention what was happening when Obama took office, hey that's "blaming Bush", don'tcha' know. LOL. No, it is the way anything meaningful is measured; how does it compare today with what was happening before.

[EihTooms]

The prime rate outstripped the Federal funds rate, reaching 20% in March 1980. The "misery index," a Carter term which equals unemployment plus inflation hit 20 percent in 1980 as well, the first time since World War II. Stagflation and Jimmy Carter. The two go hand in hand. Then there is his bungling of foreign affairs: the Iranian Revolution, which we are still paying a huge penalty for now, and the US Hostage crisis which Carter completely mangled, oh yeah, I almost forgot the Russian invasion of Afganistan.

Raising Fed Funds / prime rates is how you tame hyper-inflation. You make the cost of borrowing money more expensive. You do that to slow down an otherwise overheated economy. That is why Carter appointed Paul Volker to be his Fed Chairman. Because Volker had a plan to tame hyper-inflation by raising the Fed Funds rate while not doing too much damage to jobs creation. Carter appointed him to do that in late 1979, knowing rising Fed Funds rates during 1980 would likely do great harm to him politically at election time. Reagan had nothing to do with bringing down hyper-inflation. Carter made the decision to appoint Volker to do it, shouldered all the heavy lifting for it, assumed all the political risk to do it.

As a side note on that subject, since you lived through those Carter and Reagan years, you must then remember that virtually anyone and everyone could deduct those high interest rates for everything from auto purchases to consumer debt re credit cards during the Carter years, just as you could and largely still can with mortgage loan interest rates. So when they had to be raised high in order to tame the effects of wage inflation in '79 and '80, most Americans, not just corporate executives with clever accountants, could reduce the bite of it come income tax time. But guess who put an end to that ability for regular rank and file American workers to take a tax deduction on ordinary consumer debt? You guessed right if you said Ronald Reagan.

The Iranian Revolution was triggered by Republican President Dwight Eisenhower's CIA overthrow of a duly democratically-elected leader of Iran in 1954 and installing the brutal Shah Pahlavi regime instead in order to keep oil prices to our liking. The Revolution was about Islamic Ayatollahs then overthrowing that brutal dictatorship, a slow and bloody 25 year march that happened to end in 1979 when Carter was president. Meanwhile, Carter got all of the USA Hostages out of Iran in exchange for nothing more than what already belonged to Iran before Reagan had a chance to screw that up more than he tried to screw it up in the days before the election. Quite a bit more positive outcome than when Reagan buckled under the slightest political risk pressure by illegally trading whatever arms Iran wanted for 7 hostages that were taken on his watch.

That Reagan event was one of a few under his watch when Iran and others in the Middle East learned you can actually come out ahead, not just break even, by causing mischief for the USA, depending on the spinal density of the commander in chief at the time.

[EihTooms]

...as another BM pointed out, Roosevelt did not do so great with the economy. We have Hirohito to thank for resurecting the US economy.

I try never to miss an opportunity to set this oft-repeated but bogus claim straight. Look at the charts for the dramatic decline in the unemployment rate, GDP growth surging, stock market recovering, etc. from mid-1933 forward and you will see all were doing spectacularly well YEARS before we were attacked on Pearl Harbor or got involved in WWII. There was a mild 18 month set back in the improvement on some important metrics around 1937 only because FDR let up on the New Deal stimulus in order to address the debt / deficit. But then it resumed right back to positive trend in the years before December 7th, 1941.

In fact, the USA Economy suffered during our involvement in WWII. There is no data showing improvement on the usual economic measures during WWII or in the aftermath of WWII. Conservatives opposed to the Democratic New Deal type approach to recovering the economy from typical Republican major economic downturns always claim FDR's New Deal was a failure and that wars are good for the economy. But it isn't true. If that were true, then our economy should have been roaring while we were in the midst of TWO wars during the Bush2 years and the early Obama years. But it wasn't roaring. Not by a long shot.

[EihTooms]

So much here to disagree with, so little time. I will concentrate on paragraph 2 and Jimmy Carter who I rate as one of the worst Presidents in the post World War II era. 1st, I think you are cherry picking some of the stats you cite to promote your argument. "back-to-back quarterly GDP growth rates of +7. 5% and +8. 5%". The volatile quarterly rates have no meaning. Look at the annual rates to understand the situation. I lived through this stuff. The Carter years were horrible. Here is the relevant information:

The prime rate outstripped the Federal funds rate, reaching 20% in March 1980. The "misery index," a Carter term which equals unemployment plus inflation hit 20 percent in 1980 as well, the first time since World War II. Stagflation and Jimmy Carter. The two go hand in hand. Then there is his bungling of foreign affairs: the Iranian Revolution, which we are still paying a huge penalty for now, and the US Hostage crisis which Carter completely mangled, oh yeah, I almost forgot the Russian invasion of Afganistan.

I consider Reagan, on the other hand, the greatest President of the post war era. I point to the end of stagflation, 20 plus years of economic growth after he tamed inflation with the 1982 recession (before you object you should read Paul Volker's thoughts on Reagan and what he did for the US Economy), WINNING THE COLD WAR and defeating the Soviet Union. The only other President that even comes close to this level of achevement is Franklin Roosevelt and as another BM pointed out, Roosevelt did not do so great with the economy. We have Hirohito to thank for resurecting the US economy.

But, you are right about one thing. Trump's plan to jump start the US economy is Reaganesqe or as the left likes to decry Supply Side. He plans to cut taxes across the board and get rid of Dodd Frank among other Obama era anti-growth / anti-business regulations. Yes, I expect the deficit will rise at first due to the tax cuts, the military buildup plus any fiscal spending Trump intends to implement, but after his tax cuts work their way through the economy and stimulate it properly, I predict we will see 3%, 4%, possibly even 5% real GDP growth. Of course, I could be wrong. But then so could you. So, we will have to just wait and see what happens.

In the meantime I will make you a friendly wager; if I am right about the GDP you buy me a ST session with any girl I want in Twister. If you are right, I will buy you a ST session with any girl you want in Twister. Do you accept? The bet: I predict 3% or higher real GDP within 18 months of Trump's Tax plan and the repeal of Dodd Frank signed into law.

One last thing, here are the facts comparing Reagan and Carter:

Year Inflation // Unemployment // GDP.

1976 5.8% /////// 7.7% /////// 4. 33%.

1977 6.5% ////// 7.1% /////// 4. 98%.

1978 7.6% ///// 6.1% ////// 6. 68%.

1979 11.3% //// 5.9% ////// 1. 30% (Second oil crisis).

1980 13.5% //// 7.2% ////// -0. 04%.

1981 10.3% //// 7.6% ////// 1. 29%.

1982 6.2% //// 9.7% ////// -1. 40% (Reagan Recession).

1983 3.2% ///// 9.6% ///// 7. 83%.

1984 4.3% ///// 7.5% ///// 5. 63%.

First of all, on the bet; it would all depend how GDP growth is accomplished. If the slightly improved average annual GDP growth rates achieved under Reagan vs Carter come about for Trump as they did for Reagan, by tripling the National Debt and skyrocketing the debt-to-GDP ratio, then Trump "accomplishing" the same feat is hardly worth celebrating with a wager win, isn't it?

I fail to see the startling improvement over anything in that recap of certain data for Reagan vs Carter. You get hyper-inflation as seen in the Carter years because wage inflation feeds into it. And you get wage inflation because there are too many new private sector jobs being created than there are applicants to fill them. Easy to bring that kind of "Morning in America!" result to an end; preside over an economy whose private sector jobs creation average is dwarfed by that of Jimmy Carter. You're showing Carter's average annual unemployment rate lower than Reagans. This is supposed to convince me Reagan's policies worked better than Carter's?

Sorry, but "I lived through this stuff. The Carter years were horrible", is not enough data to reverse the real data showing Carter's annual average private sector jobs gains dwarfing that of Reagan and every other Republican president before and since, just to name one way more important metric than how you felt about it. I certainly agree that Carter was a stiff while Reagan was affable and ingratiating, as long as you weren't on the wrong end of his massive tax increases on the lower income margins to pay for the disproportionate and budget-busting tax cuts for the wealthy.