Thailand Politics

[Old New Guy]

Giotto, well done for speaking your mind and explaining some facts that otherwise might never be known to the casual reader.

If you end up at the monkey house I'll be visiting and corrupting wards to get you a better treatment, ahaha!

[Giotto]

Thanks for answering my question.

Wouldn't you love to be a fly on the wall and observe while these people spin their webs?

Hmmmm ...

I just booked a room in Bangkok Hilton. It's a problem to talk about this issues if you live in Thailand.

https://thaipoliticalprisoners.wordp...devils-discus/

Quote: "Clearly, any discussion of King Anandas death might land a person in jail for lse majest."

This people here in power believe that they do the right thing. They are the "good people" wanted by the King to run the country. Fact is that they staged a coup and should be trialed for High Treason. That's all. They should go to jail and NEVER get out in their lives again!!!

I was never a friend of the Shinawatra dynasty. But at least this related governments were democratically elected. They made mistakes - but they were democratically elected !!!

In this country we have this mechanism that makes everything worse ... again and again. The "good people" take over the power because they believe that something is going wrong ... and the higher god-like authority signs an interim constitution that legalize their actions and grants them amnesty. This mechanism was used many times in the past - and it turns out to be a disaster for this country!

I am so sick and tired of those fucking generals taking over power, having not clue at all, not being able to run the country at all and robbing the country of its forward developing momentum and forcing it to loose another 10 years (per coup). The intellectual capacity of those people is very very limited. They are not capable of running a complex country like Thailand. But - they hold the power with the support of a group of never learning conservative power players aged 80 ++ ... who think they do it right for Thailand and just create the next catastrophe.

And most of the people I talk to here in Thailand (99 %, of the Thais and the Farang Business Guys) support the coup! Farangs support a coup!!! If I ask them what they would do if a coup happens in their home country they argue "This is Thailand, and here we need this kind of measures". I argue: it's about values, and a coup is IN GENERAL NEVER acceptable.

Fuck.

I am so sick and tired about what is going on in this country!!!!! And tomorrow I will most likely be invited to stay in Bangkok Hilton!

OK!!! FUCK THE GENERALS!!!


Giotto

[Paul Kausch]

News:

http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/2...-divorces-wife

Background Info:

http://www.japantimes.co.jp/opinion/.../#.VIvNEHvQM_o
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-30275513


Giotto

Yes, I first read about the scandal a few weeks ago. You could see this coming. Does this affect the line of succession? Is his oldest son still in line? Any ideas what is behind this?

It looks as if an arrangement has finally been made between the yellow elite (now ruling) and the crown prince.


Background is that the yellow elite was NEVER accepting this woman as possible Queen of Thailand.

This was a coordinated action of the coup government and the crown prince, and it indicates that the succession problem is now solved.


Giotto

Thanks for answering my question.

Wouldn't you love to be a fly on the wall and observe while these people spin their webs?

[Giotto]

The Thai Palace Law which governs the succession provides that the reigning monarch chooses the successor. There is no reason and actually even no tradition that it has to be his oldest son. It only just so happens that the King (under much pressure from the Queen, it is rumoured) choose his oldest son and then later decided to add his daughter as well as some kind of "back-up".

Succession ...

Most likely there will not be a woman on the throne soon. It looks as if an arrangement has finally been made between the yellow elite (now ruling) and the crown prince.

All started with those corruption cases a few weeks ago. Everybody was surprised - they are all corrupt here in the leadership, in the police, in the army, on the red side, on the yellow side - there is no difference. For that there is an unwritten rule that nobody fucks another powerful member of the elite club up. But suddenly many police and some army guys were arrested because of corruption accusations. Very strange. All powerful people on both sides were suddenly waking up. What was going on?

A few days later it became clear that all those arrested people belonged to the family of the wife of the crown prince.

Some more days later the crown prince got divorced and the palace stripped his ex wife off all her royal titles and names.

Background is that the yellow elite was NEVER accepting this woman as possible Queen of Thailand. Because of her past. Everybody outside of Thailand can check this out in the web.

This was a coordinated action of the coup government and the crown prince, and it indicates that the succession problem is now solved.


Giotto

[Giotto]

Correct. Most accounts I've read point to suicide. But the royals would have none of that, and eventually convicted and executed some poor bastard.

Yeah, suicide ...

There are certain indications that make this thesis highly unlikely:

- the King was going to leave Thailand a few days later, back to Switzerland, where he would meet the woman he loved.
- the way of the bullet showed that the King was lying when he was shot. Highly unlikely for suicide in the opinions of forensic experts.
- the gun was very difficult to fire in suicidal direction, with its safety mechanisms.
- the gun was found on the wrong side of the bed, if considered his preferred hand.
- the discussions and talks at the Palace in the aftermath. Those people knew what really had happened.

A good read to get more background information about what has happened that day in June 1946:

Rayne Kruger, The Devil's Discus, Cassel London 1964.

And - if you want to get closer to what really might have happened that day...

https://facthai.wordpress.com/2012/0...egor-marshall/


Giotto

PS: Finally we got to the root cause of the Thai political problem, the recurring coups, the red shirt / yellow shirt conflict ... all that started in June 1946.

[Phordphan]

The Thai Palace Law which governs the succession provides that the reigning monarch chooses the successor. There is no reason and actually even no tradition that it has to be his oldest son. It only just so happens that the King (under much pressure from the Queen, it is rumoured) choose his oldest son and then later decided to add his daughter as well as some kind of "back-up".

I think I would disagree slightly. Thai succession has always followed male primogeniture. In fact, I believe that the 1924 Palace Law of Succession codified it. A woman was forbidden to be the monarch until sometime in the late '90s, I think. But a woman can only ascend the throne if she's approved by the Privy Counsel.

Case in point. Rama VII ascended the throne because he was the last surviving brother of Rama VI, and son of Queen Bongsri. He wasn't "first" in line but the first was a girl born to his eldest brother, the next was son of a foreigner and thus excluded, and the last heir had a commoner for a mother. It appears Rama VII ascended according to the Palace Law at the time, and male primogeniture. It's a bit muddier because the current king's grandfather was actually older, but the son of a different queen. Man, that Rama V sure got around! "It's good to be the king!

When Rama VII abdicated in 1935 he had no kids. The current king's grandfather had already died, putting his children first in line. So, Ananda ascended the throne until his death in 1946, then Bhumibol until now. Again, all based upon the rules of male primogeniture.

So, traditionally, the eldest male brother, then grandsons, then subsequent younger brothers/grandsons, are the ones who would ascend to the throne. Absent a designated (male) heir, a royal-born female could be appointed Queen.

The key is designated. I've forgotten the procedure, but the king could "undesignated" the current heir apparent. As there are no more male children, that would leave the door open for the princess to be appointed. I think the odds of that are about the same as a snowstorm in Bangkok in April.

[Wolvenvacht]

I'm with you, Paul. I think it will be fascinating to watch, especially in-country.

Concerning a point another poster made, I've forgotten the exact term, but the King could explicitly "disinherit" (not the correct term) the Crown Prince, thus removing him from the line of succession. This would put the Crown Princess in line to ascend the throne. I think the chances are slim to none, but it could be done legally. Most Thais I've talked to would much rather see her as Queen than her brother as King.

The Thai Palace Law which governs the succession provides that the reigning monarch chooses the successor. There is no reason and actually even no tradition that it has to be his oldest son. It only just so happens that the King (under much pressure from the Queen, it is rumoured) choose his oldest son and then later decided to add his daughter as well as some kind of "back-up".

[Paul Kausch]

I'm with you, Paul. I think it will be fascinating to watch, especially in-country.

Concerning a point another poster made, I've forgotten the exact term, but the King could explicitly "disinherit" (not the correct term) the Crown Prince, thus removing him from the line of succession. This would put the Crown Princess in line to ascend the throne. I think the chances are slim to none, but it could be done legally. Most Thais I've talked to would much rather see her as Queen than her brother as King.

I know some non-BG middle-class ladies who genuinely think this will be the last king and that the monarchy will be more or less abolished after his passing. Indeed, he'll leave some big shoes to fill and I doubt the current Crown Prince (roundly reviled) is up to the task. IMHO, I think getting rid of the patronage system in Thailand would probably be one of the best things that could happen.

Logically, it would seem the dynasty is on it's last leg and it is time for the country to move on. Will that happen? Wouldn't that have enormous impact on the Bangkok elite and the hangers on? If there is no king can there still be Lèse-majesté? If not that eliminates a powerful weapon. Fascinating, as you write, is a better description than exciting as I wrote.

[Phordphan]

I think you understood what I meant by exciting. Not excitement like watching a shootout in the World Cup's final match, but an opportunity to be a direct witness to a rare event of enormous significance.

I'm with you, Paul. I think it will be fascinating to watch, especially in-country.

Concerning a point another poster made, I've forgotten the exact term, but the King could explicitly "disinherit" (not the correct term) the Crown Prince, thus removing him from the line of succession. This would put the Crown Princess in line to ascend the throne. I think the chances are slim to none, but it could be done legally. Most Thais I've talked to would much rather see her as Queen than her brother as King.

I know some non-BG middle-class ladies who genuinely think this will be the last king and that the monarchy will be more or less abolished after his passing. Indeed, he'll leave some big shoes to fill and I doubt the current Crown Prince (roundly reviled) is up to the task. IMHO, I think getting rid of the patronage system in Thailand would probably be one of the best things that could happen.

[Phordphan]

Actually, didn't His brother, the then King Rama VIII, "accidentally" shot himself? Although later two palace aides were convicted of regicide and executed.

Correct. Most accounts I've read point to suicide. But the royals would have none of that, and eventually convicted and executed some poor bastard.

[Paul Kausch]

I think the transition will be filled with profound sadness. The mourning period could last several weeks. It would certainly be interesting / fascinating insight for those of us who appreciate and try to understand Thai culture.

SL.

I think you understood what I meant by exciting. Not excitement like watching a shootout in the World Cup's final match, but an opportunity to be a direct witness to a rare event of enormous significance.

[Sunlover2]

Wouldn't it be exciting to see the transition first hand!

I think the transition will be filled with profound sadness. The mourning period could last several weeks. It would certainly be interesting / fascinating insight for those of us who appreciate and try to understand Thai culture.

SL.

[Paul Kausch]

? You will be witnessing ...

Wouldn't it be exciting to see the transition first hand! Graham Greene is one of my favorite 20th Century English language authors. I think of The Quiet American and what it would have been like to be a veteran journalist covering the escalation of the Vietnam (American) War. That was a painful period for the USA and a few of my friends either didn't make it back or came back with physical and / or emotional problems, but that was one of the major world events of the second half of the 20th Century. While it would be less significant on the world stage, the events in Thailand that follow the death of the king could have enormous implications for the country.

[Old New Guy]

I think it would be fascinating to be in the country on an extended stay, or better yet living there at that time. One would have to be careful and smart about it, but a new monarch would be such a rare and significant event, witnessing the transition first hand would be memorable.

? You will be witnessing a desperate attempt of face saving and rule circumvention to allow a female member of the royal family becoming de-facto head-of-state, and the heir apparent quietly left on the side in the same dimmed visibility that he deserved, yet possibly keeping the title if he clings to it. And it will be, of course, a concealed struggle as it is prohibited to report about this stuff. Thai people is already accepting of the notion that the current one is the last King of Thailand. There will be no new day after the mourning, no fresh energies and rising, just a difficult time for a country that will need to find a new direction, based on progress and values rather than inspiration and guidance from crowned heads, and good luck with that.

[Paul Kausch]

I think it would be fascinating to be in the country on an extended stay, or better yet living there at that time. One would have to be careful and smart about it, but a new monarch would be such a rare and significant event, witnessing the transition first hand would be memorable.