Thailand Politics

[Goyave]

... That will show the regime anciens you should respect the will of the people in a fair and monitored election...

A "fair election"? When did that marvel happen in Thailand?

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Southea.../JA09Ae01.html

... Among the main complaints the EC has taken under investigation are charges of alleged vote-buying, a widespread phenomenon in Thailand since the early 1980s, where candidates pay cash to voters ahead of the polls in exchange for their ballots.

At December's poll, some rural voters were given 200 baht (US$6) in unmarked "white envelopes", while the local party campaigners, or vote canvassers, were given 500 baht for every vote secured, a Thai official working for an independent poll monitor, the Asian Network for Free Elections (ANFREL), told Inter Press Service (IPS).

"There was vote-buying in Bangkok, too. One party gave 800 baht per vote to get 500 votes at one polling station," the official claimed.

And what about (independent) election monitoring?

... During the same period, the EC also rejected requests by experienced, independent election monitors to help ensure a climate of neutrality at all levels of the polling process. "At a meeting with the elections commission, we requested that there should be neutral organizations and observers to ensure that the election will be free and fair," said Saiyud Kerdphol, secretary-general of the People's Network for Elections in Thailand, a local non-governmental group. "But the commission rejected this proposal."

I admit that last year's poll might have been the "less unfair" election so far. Anyway...

... PPP candidates were not the only ones distributing money to poor voters before the poll...

[Dan7373]

I don't think anything has been resolved today in Thailand. The court decision has only delayed the day of reckoning until some other time.

And I don't think foreigners and tourists are going to be returning to Thailand in large numbers any time soon. Because the PAD is free to take over the airports any time they want. And they've said that they will do the same again if they don't like something about what the elected government does next.
http://www.bangkokpost.com/breaking_....php?id=135131

Basically, Thailand doesn't have much of a government now. It's not clear who is in charge and who has the authority and the legitimacy to make economic and security decisions in Thailand. Which leaves Thailand vulnerable to terrorist attacks and economic chaos.

Thailand is not yet a failed state the way Somalia is. But it certainly might end up that way if it stays without any government in charge for a long time.

This political conflict will have to be resolved one way or another. And for this reason I think that the worst of this dispute is yet to come.

[ManonsanBoy]

The other side should now occupy the airport. They should amass 1 million and march on Bangkok. That will show the regime anciens you should respect the will of the people in a fair and monitored election. Close the wretched airport again.

[Easy2007]

Well, very unsurprising, as I posted earlier this week, the 2nd Dec dissolving of the PPP was already known.

Looks like top leaders of Team Yellow agreed with Team Red that the ruling should be made with minimal protest, and in return Team Yellow will call off the protests for a few weeks anyway, just in time for the birthday and Christmas/New Year

Do not get too carried away though.

The TRT which became the PPP will now become the PT party.

PT will elect their prime minister on Monday.

It will be an ex-PPP man.

PAD will start their protests again in a few weeks.

I think the AOT are playing it carefully, no rush to re-open the airport if Team Yellow is straight back on Monday night or another day next week when the new PM is named.

In the meantime, Thailand is at peace for the birthday - what a wonderful coincidence.

[Giotto]

...and now everybody believes that this happened because of the court decision against the PPP etc. today ... how come that I don't believe it? Because the outcome of this trial was anyway clear? Hmmm...

Let's play with fiction: Let's assume a preliminary version of the birthday speach leaked through (or "was leaked" through) today ... and something like "I know that you are there at the airport, but you should better not be there" could be found in it...

That would explain the dramatic change of plans/opinion within a single day:

- 1 hour after the verdict the PAD announced that they would not end their protests until all members of the actual cabinet had resigned
- 4 hours later they decided to go home tomorrow, 10 am ...

Imagine what could happen if a phrase like that can really be found in the birthday speach...the expected support not that strong as expected, and the military and the police immediately acting, with all the power they have.

Oh, btw., I heard that parts of the birthday speach leaked through today. But you never know where it comes from, may be the chief cook wrote it.

Good, that the protesters go home tomorrow.



Giotto

[Imlonely67]

Just heard on the BBC that the Judiciary have declared that the current government are unconstitutional (I think) and have banned the PM and other MPs from holding office for at least five years.

What does this mean in the short term? Does anyone think that this will precipitate the end of the blockade of the airports?

I'm just very curious since I'm booked to fly to BKK on Monday and from a purely selfish point of view I don't want my vacation screwed up.

Expatcat

Hooray Hooray. Everything is going back to normal for the time being. My prediction tells me that if the new government is form again with members from current mix government and PAD lost the election, PAD will strike again and make the same issue that the new PM is Thaksin puppet again. And airport will be gone again as they had done it before.

I read from someone article from ISG that this is due to royal involvement, I believe it will happen again. Hope that I am wrong and I wish I am wrong.

[Run Mann]

The People’s Alliance for Democracy (PAD) on Tuesday accepted the Airports of Thailand (AOT)’s demand to allow incoming flights to use Suvarnabhumi airport after the Constitution Court dissolved the People Power, Chart Thai and Matchimathipataya parties on charges of electoral fraud.

The first incoming flight to the international airport is expected to be within 24 hours. The Airports of Thailand (AOT) announced that Suvarnabhumi will resume full operation on December 15, starting 6pm.

[Giotto]

It's over. The protests will end tomorrow 10 am. The airports will need a few more days fully operate, but incoming flights are allowed already.

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2008...s_30090031.php

From another article:

"Vudhibhandhu said the board would cooperate with the PAD to check the readiness of the systems and would try to resume services within 24 hours"

Sounds not that bad .



Giotto

[1Ball]

Well, that's it. the gov't has been brought down by a court ruling. Earliest the airport will open is december 15.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081202/...litical_unrest

[Acerboy]

well ppp is out. pad need to pack their bags. things will be more clear on king's birthday imho, after his highness speech. hope things will get back to normal bit whatever said this pad action has a long term impact on the thai economy and the thais especially those in the tourism industry.

[Giotto]

OTH,
Welcome back, always glad to hear from the professor point of view! Regardless of what the views are I say lets party at Giotto place! Politics and pussy! What you guys say! Can't get home party or just don't want to go home!

Drinks are on Giotto? Where Black!

LBM

LBM,

Sounds good to me ... wait!

No customer! The airport is closed! Did you hear that? No money in the cash box...I think drinks are better on you !


Giotto

[Jungle Bluebird]

anything possible... it may take weeks...or is over tomorrow..

its not so much what the PAD wants, rather what their paymasters want. never mind those clowns at the airport..misguided fools, thats all.

JB

So you don't think my chances are very high that it will be resolved by next week?

Do you think that PAD are planning another action that will mean that there will be even more disruption to the status quo? Or, in your opinion will PAD open the airports once they have what they want? Which beggars the question, What DO they want?

Frustrated Expatcat

[ExpatCat]

No so.. different players, same show. Call it act 2 ... JB

So you don't think my chances are very high that it will be resolved by next week?

Do you think that PAD are planning another action that will mean that there will be even more disruption to the status quo? Or, in your opinion will PAD open the airports once they have what they want? Which beggars the question, What DO they want?

Frustrated Expatcat

[Jungle Bluebird]

No so.. different players, same show. Call it act 2 ..

rename the airport temple of doom. Thai's in general know the full story, but cannot come to terms with it. The 'untouchables' rule now.

Dec 5 its celebration day. Ironic, must be a case of the 'stockholm syndrome' (the hostage thing..)

this will be nasty.. with no high season to talk off... millions will loose their job. but then there are always the soapies for crowd control.

JB

Just heard on the BBC that the Judiciary have declared that the current government are unconstitutional (I think) and have banned the PM and other MPs from holding office for at least five years.

What does this mean in the short term? Does anyone think that this will precipitate the end of the blockade of the airports?

I'm just very curious since I'm booked to fly to BKK on Monday and from a purely selfish point of view I don't want my vacation screwed up.

Expatcat

[LittleBigMan]

OTH,
Welcome back, always glad to hear from the professor point of view! Regardless of what the views are I say lets party at Giotto place! Politics and pussy! What you guys say! Can't get home party or just don't want to go home!

Drinks are on Giotto? Where Black!

LBM