Thailand Politics

[Paul Kausch]

How can you increase the cost?

The government purchases rice at 40-50% above market price. When it sells the rice it loses money. As long as this policy of buying rice at more than its market value continues the loses will grow. The government will borrow more money in the future to finance these loses.

Did you know the rice farmers have already had multiple harvests under the scheme and made loads of money.

The money the rice farmers have received was not generated by rice sales. The government borrowed the money. Buying high and selling low, which is what happens with the rice scheme, results in loses. Money must be borrowed to cover the loses. As long as the loses continue, the borrowing will continue.

You seem to avoid the issue that every government in the world, including the USA and EU,"lose money" (better know as running a budget deficit) by pumping cash into agriculture by way of direct subsidies.

Habitual budget deficits is a growing problem among developed nations. The growing budget deficit and run away government spending have been major political issues in the USA for sometime. It lead to the creation of the Wacko Bird Tea Party in the USA.

Are you saying every government in the world is vote buying?

Yes, social welfare programs, special subsidies and tax credits for certain industries, pork barrel projects, they are ways governments buy votes or pay back campaign contributions.

My attitudes are very ecumenical. I think Yingluck is a crook, as is Suthep, Obama (a Democrat), John Boehner (he's the Speaker of the House in the USA, a Republican and second in the presidential line of succession). There are a few relatively corruption free government in the world - Singapore, New Zealand and Norway to name a few, but generally politics and corruption go hand in hand.

[Member #4698]

The rice scheme has been a financial disaster for the rice farmers, the country and the taxpayers, though it is widely believed by people in the various rice trade groups that the Shinawatras and their cronies have profited handsomely from the program.

Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra launched her market cornering scheme to ostensibly shift more cash into the rural economy by buying up rice from farmers at about 18, 000 baht, or $550, a ton, around 50% higher than the then prevailing market rate. If Thaksan knew a head of time [and of course he knew] what the government was going to do and he bought Rice Futures, he would have made a fortune. The question is was he smart enough to get out and take his profits before the bubble burst or did he think the scheme would actually work and Thailand could corner the world market. Global prices soared from $300 a ton to a peak above $900 a ton, but have subsequently crashed to around the $450 a ton level as more world wide supply became available. It is a question of Hubris. Crash and burn is a favorite saying in the commodity trading pits.

In any case, if Thaksin and his pals bought large quantities of Rice Futures before the Thai Government announced it's subsidy program, there are financial records to substantiate this and this becomes a classic case of insider trading and price manipulation. If this is true then Thaksin is in a whole lot of new trouble that he can't run away from. This is getting very interesting. Stay tuned in for more goodies as the situation develops.

[Member #4698]

There is an interesting report in the Wall Street Journal about the Thai government's failed attempt to corner the rice market and "Payment Delays by Government Leave Farmers Deep in Debt"

http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/...377530118?mod=

%3C%25mst. Param%28LINKMODPREFIX%29.

In the report the writer explains how this attempt was implemented, it's short term success, and the reason why it ultimately failed. The bottom line now is that the rice farmers are not getting paid for their crops, they are getting desperate, and Thailand has lost billions of dollars [up to 12 billion] on this foolish price fixing scheme. Anybody remember the Hunt Brothers?

Still "Ms. Yingluck has defended the rice subsidy, saying that it has helped increase rural incomes, while her government blames protesters for causing the delays in payments to farmers."

But "Thailand's anticorruption agency, which has broad powers to probe mismanagement as well as corruption, is now fast-tracking an investigation that could lead to Ms. Yingluck being impeached for allegedly ignoring the scale of the losses caused by the rice program. If that occurs, she could be sent for trial in the Senate, a process that could lead to her dismissal."

This issue is not going away.

[The Pro]

According to the Thai Rice Exporters Association the government is now trying to sell 5% broken white rice at US$370 a metric ton in a desperate effort to generate cash to make a partial payment to rice farmers. That is the price this grade of rice was selling for at the end of 2007! The current market price for 5% broken white rice is US$456. The government would have to sell at over US$675 to cover the cost of the rice scheme. This is what industry observers feared. The government will hold a fire sale and dump the rice on the market, increasing the already staggering costs of the program to taxpayers. The only way the government can get attractive prices for its stockpiles is to drastically cut current and future production and gradually sell rice over about a five-year period. Of course cutting current and future production means the rice farmers will grow less rice and make less money while they wait for payment on monies past due. The current crop will soon be harvested and the farmers need money to plant the next crop. Money they don't have. The rice scheme has been a financial disaster for the rice farmers, the country and the taxpayers, though it is widely believed by people in the various rice trade groups that the Shinawatras and their cronies have profited handsomely from the program.

How can you increase the cost?

You have already said that its cost 700 Billion Baht and all the rice is in storage.

So if the rice is never sold the scheme cost the headline 700 Billion you are talking about.

If they sell the rice the headline 700 Billion now falls. To 350 Billion or 300 Billion. It cannot increase, everyone is already using worst case rice is worthless figures, so anything its sold for now, even half the price they paid for it, will reduce the budget deficit of this project.

It is a rice subsidy, just like in the rest of the world where governments put in direct agricultural subsidies (free money to farmers / traders by buying at higher than market price, or paying a large amount of the costs).

You seem to think this is the first harvest?

Did you know the rice farmers have already had multiple harvests under the scheme and made loads of money. That this harvest is for some only, not all, not yet paid for is an annoyance for them, but they have made tonnes of money out of the previous harvests in the past years.

You seem to avoid the issue that every government in the world, including the USA and EU,"lose money" (better know as running a budget deficit) by pumping cash into agriculture by way of direct subsidies. Are you saying every government in the world is vote buying?

[PinkPearl]

Um. You weren't in Thailand during his regime, were you? His was a socially conservative agenda (as is normal in democracies, particularly those with female suffrage) , and he was trying to gradually remove foreigners, make long-stays and retirement more difficult, and close sex-related business and reduce sex tourism. All the things the sex tourist likes about Thailand are related to the happy feudalism, not these neo-liberal democratizers.

Apart from easy cheap abundant pussy, what are these "things the sex tourist likes about Thailand"?

I've been in Thailand much of the time during Thaksin's puppet regimes, including but not limited to the past 2 and a half years via his sister Yingluck. Is there one iota of evidence that in the past 30 months the TS "regime" has in even a single case "closed sex-related business" in Siam? How many new ones opened? Any johns been busted, or is it business as usual.

TS regimes have been in power most of the time since 2001. If he was trying to "gradually remove foreigners" & "reduce sex tourism", he did a [CodeWord140] poor job of it, as the numbers have continually skyrocketed over that period. If there were X number of sex tourists in 2001, it was probably more like 3X by 2013.

Do you consider LOS being flooded with foreigners or sex tourists a good thing for you, personally? I find the low seasons to be way better than the high. Less foreigners means less competition so more of my regular girls are free & begging to see me.

As to making "long-stays and retirement more difficult", perhaps you refer to doubling the amount required to obtain the retirement visa. The aim & result may be to weed out "lower quality" types & increase the capital that the rest bring in, in much the same way that Singapore has been operating. I'd say they have the right idea for Thailand as it is now. A new country ruled by TS in the North might call for a different gameplan, at least in the short run until they steal BKK's tourism & got the ball rolling. People with power or money rather than morals as their primary motive are willing to adapt their "agendas" to suit the situation as it changes in order to meet their goal. What category do you think TS falls into?

Is Thailand what you'ld call a democracy. So-called democracies come in many flavors, from the USA to Singapore to Laos & the DPRK. The latter 2 are actually communist & SG has been called a police state. Do you think the poontang environment is better in Thailand or communist countries like Vietnam & the People's Republic of China? How would it be under Suthep's non elected "People's Reform Council"? Suthep BTW has stated he has no respect for foreigners.

Is TS living offshore with his wife he divored in 2008. Restricting himself to Playboy magazine & cold showers? Or enjoying some Thai & foreign dishes in Dubai. Recently his mug was shot in Northern Europe sandwiched inbetween two babes.

[Franciscass]

That is good news because I didn't book an airline ticket from Japan for March because I was unsure of the situation. After the election went fairly smoothly Thai Airways doubled the prices. This might cause a lowering of prices back to sensible numbers.

An enjoyable consequence of the "shut down" is the amount of music one gets to hear. Listened to a great folk ensemble at the Asoke stage on Tuesday and some great bands at the ad hoc weekend stage at Chit Lom.

[Paul Kausch]

According to the Thai Rice Exporters Association the government is now trying to sell 5% broken white rice at US$370 a metric ton in a desperate effort to generate cash to make a partial payment to rice farmers. That is the price this grade of rice was selling for at the end of 2007! The current market price for 5% broken white rice is US$456. The government would have to sell at over US$675 to cover the cost of the rice scheme. This is what industry observers feared. The government will hold a fire sale and dump the rice on the market, increasing the already staggering costs of the program to taxpayers. The only way the government can get attractive prices for its stockpiles is to drastically cut current and future production and gradually sell rice over about a five-year period. Of course cutting current and future production means the rice farmers will grow less rice and make less money while they wait for payment on monies past due. The current crop will soon be harvested and the farmers need money to plant the next crop. Money they don't have. The rice scheme has been a financial disaster for the rice farmers, the country and the taxpayers, though it is widely believed by people in the various rice trade groups that the Shinawatras and their cronies have profited handsomely from the program.

[Ralph Kramden]

And now the rice farmers are saying if they are not paid by 12 February thy will descend on Bangkok and begin demonstrations.

That is good news because I didn't book an airline ticket from Japan for March because I was unsure of the situation. After the election went fairly smoothly Thai Airways doubled the prices. This might cause a lowering of prices back to sensible numbers.

[The Pro]

The Bangkok Post frequently runs editorials critical of the PDRC, the most recent of these is in today's online edition. Browse the archives of recent editorials and you will find many more that are critical of Suthep and his actions. I believe it is clear the Post thinks the Shinawatras and their cronies are a bunch of crooks, but it is also clear the Post does not support the actions of Suthep and his protesters.

The 700 billion baht figure is not a number the Bangkok Post invented. It is the amount of money the government has actually borrowed, at 3% interest, to pay for the rice program to date. The taxpayers are currently paying 21 billion baht a year in interest servicing this debt. The government paid 40% above the market for the rice. Stored rice deteriorates over time and lose 10% in value every year it is in storage. Some of the rice has been held for over two years. The government will be hard pressed to sell it at 50% of what it paid for the rice; and if they dump it on the market, which is what the rice farmers are pressuring them to do, it will drive prices down further, which will add to the loses. Under any scenario the taxpayers will be stuck with most of that 700 billion baht of debt; and if the rice scheme continues this debt will increase not decrease; and it is certain future debt will be at more than 3, perhaps substantially more. Thailand's economy is a small fraction the size of the EU...

The Bangkok Post occasionally runs stories against the PDRC if they do something really stupid, they have to, would be suicide if they did not criticise the really stupid stuff.

If they dump the rice at 50% of what they paid then the scheme will have made a 350 billion baht loss. 350 billion baht spread across the millions of farmers who have benefited from it is very little.

Abhisit ""lost" 117 billion baht with his "vote buying" in 2009.

http://news.asiaone.com/News/Latest%2BNews / Asia / Story / A1Story20090208-120350. Html.

Just handed cash out to people and called it "economic stimulus". This was blatentvote buying.

So Abhisit spent 117 billion on his vote buying for a few hundred thousand peoples benefit.

YingLuck has spent 350 billion baht (worst case) on her vote buying as you call it for millions of people.

Seems about right.

The difference is of course the Abhisit vote buying went to Bangkok people mostly. YL vote buying has gone to many many in the North and North East.

But then its not really vote buying is it, its simply government policy. All governments around the world run similar schemes to give free money and free benefits to people. Its called winning voters around the world, in Thailand its called stimulus if you are Abhisit and its going to Bangkok people, and if you are YL and its not going to Bangkok people its called vote buying.

Reading the bottom of that article, the PAD shutting the airport in 2008 cost Thailand 290 billion baht, around the same as the rice scheme will cost the country after all the rice is sold. However the rice scheme has benefitted millions, the airport shut down benefited just a few people to get Abhisit into power.

[The Pro]

And now the rice farmers are saying if they are not paid by 12 February thy will descend on Bangkok and begin demonstrations.

But please note.

The demonstrations are to get payment.

They are not anti-government demonstrations.

The farmers blame the PDRC and their backers for stopping the government from being able to raise the money to pay them, so they are just demanding their money.

[PinkPearl]

Hi guys, I am planning to travel to Bangkok on 10th Feb for 5 nights. I want to know how safe it is right now to travel to Bangkok and Pattaya for an Indian travelling there first time. Also please let me know if the club's alcohol and women all will be open

Right now it is 100 percent safe, but according to wikiteenia only 99. 9 percent for first time Indian. I expect the same will hold true for Valentine's day.

And, yes, all women will be open. But between their legs only for you, lover boy.

[Paul Kausch]

And now the rice farmers are saying if they are not paid by 12 February thy will descend on Bangkok and begin demonstrations.

[Paul Kausch]

The 800 billion baht figure in the Bangkok Post super anti government write up effectively values all the rice at zero. Only looking at purchase price and not the value of selling it.

As ever, the media is deliberately putting out misleading propaganda to support the PDRC / Elite.

The Bangkok Post frequently runs editorials critical of the PDRC, the most recent of these is in today's online edition. Browse the archives of recent editorials and you will find many more that are critical of Suthep and his actions. I believe it is clear the Post thinks the Shinawatras and their cronies are a bunch of crooks, but it is also clear the Post does not support the actions of Suthep and his protesters.

The 700 billion baht figure is not a number the Bangkok Post invented. It is the amount of money the government has actually borrowed, at 3% interest, to pay for the rice program to date. The taxpayers are currently paying 21 billion baht a year in interest servicing this debt. The government paid 40% above the market for the rice. Stored rice deteriorates over time and lose 10% in value every year it is in storage. Some of the rice has been held for over two years. The government will be hard pressed to sell it at 50% of what it paid for the rice; and if they dump it on the market, which is what the rice farmers are pressuring them to do, it will drive prices down further, which will add to the loses. Under any scenario the taxpayers will be stuck with most of that 700 billion baht of debt; and if the rice scheme continues this debt will increase not decrease; and it is certain future debt will be at more than 3%, perhaps substantially more. Thailand's economy is a small fraction the size of the EU. Project these numbers out a few years and the debt service becomes enormous, eventually taking up so much of the budget there will be little money for infra-structure, education, health care and other critical government services.

The government has sold little if any of the rice to date; and it will not disclose how much has been sold, the amounts of the proceeds from rice sales and the current rice inventories. It is widely believed by people in the rice trade community and others trade groups that the Shinawatras and their cronies took large kickbacks from what little rice has been sold, which is why they refuse to disclose details on sales and inventories. The rice trade community has long believed the imminent G2G rice sales the government claimed to have been working on were fake. Yesterday the Thai and Chinese regional government announced the rice deal they were working on will not be consummated. The trade community believes the government had to announce this because it is scared of the corruption investigations and is scrambling to cover up the evidence. Also, it is curious that the Chinese province that allegedly was going to buy the rice only buys short grain rice as that is what the locals consume, yet the rice they supposedly were buying in this deal was to be long grain rice, which is one of several reasons why the rice trade community never believed the deal was real.

The rice scheme was conceived as a way to "buy" votes, win elections, steal huge sums of money and saddle the taxpayers with ruinous amounts of debt. The consensus opinion of Thai economists is that if these policies continue the country will be bankrupt in a few years.

It is beyond me how any sane person can defend the Shinawatras and Pheu Thai. This does not mean I support Suthep and the PDRC. My sympathies are with the segment of the population that is sick of the corruption, genuinely scared about the country's future and wants the country to be rid of the Shinawatras and Pheu Thai.

[Member #4698]

Since the 1930's Thailand has always had corrupt politicians running the country and it was business as usual because no corrupt family ever tried to steal the whole pie before. But Thaksin Shinawatra is a new breed of politician. Ever since he strode upon the Thai political scene the country has had this intractable catastrophic disaster looming. If you want to know more about it and why Thaksin generates such fervent support and vehement opposition, I suggest you read this excellent background piece by Jeffrey Race in the Asia Times.

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Southea...01-130114.html

I guess I give my hand away when I say democracies can be bought and sold and ask is a bought and sold democracy really democratic? Look at Chavez and Venezuela which is a perfect example of the tyranny of the majority controlled by a powerful group of elites. The bottom line is I don't think a fair deal can be worked out until Thaksin and his family are gone from the picture. And I am not saying I think Yingluck will be forced from power. Like everybody else I don't know what's going to happen. But what I am saying is I hope she is gone soon. By the way, if you think Thaksin really cares about the poor downtrodden, I have some beachfront property in Belize I would like to sell you for ONLY 5% down.

[LoverboyJerico]

Hi guys, I am planning to travel to Bangkok on 10th Feb for 5 nights. I want to know how safe it is right now to travel to Bangkok and Pattaya for an Indian travelling there first time. Also please let me know if the club's alcohol and women all will be open