Thai Stock Market

[Giotto]

Guys,

careful with stocks in the moment - it does not look so good.

Thailand will most likely not being hit too much this time, but the major markets have started a major downwards movement (in my POV). All charts look dangerous, and the news support the expectation, that there might be a recession in USA and China on the horizon. And then - good night, my friends.

Tokyo lost again 600 points this morning - hopefully some of your out there are invested short.


Giotto

[Giotto]

so what is the thinking after everything falling? Is it a good time to buy. I heard a guy on tv say stay away from china, but maybe buy the thai market.

Horatio,

The Shanghai market saw the biggest losing day in 10 years - yesterday. It's time to be careful with China in the moment.

As for Thailand - my opinion is that it is still too early to buy now. I expect the market to fall back to at least SET 650. For 2007 there are better investment options than Thailand, 2008 could be better then.


Giotto

[Horatio]

so what is the thinking after everything falling? Is it a good time to buy. I heard a guy on tv say stay away from china, but maybe buy the thai market.

[Giotto]

Giotto:
Not sure if this would be appropriate here or not - but I know that you've been very accomodating AND is very up-to-date with all that is happening in Thailand. Do you know about developments in the laws regarding property ownership in Thailand? I've posted the following enquiry in the Thai Boards:
>> What is happening with property developments in Thailand - specifically in regards to laws specifying majority ownership of developments by Thai nationals. As far as I know, in the past, these laws were only techinally abided to - by the use of reduced voting rights by the Thai national shareholders, by signing blank transfer forms or subjugating shareholding etc. Now I hear that the Thai Government is cracking down and examining the actual wherewithal of these Thai National Nominees, cracking down on reduced voting rights etc - to the point that it is impossible for a Foreign national to have SECURE title to any properties bought in Thainland. WHAT IS THE REAL LOW DOWN ON ALL THIS?? Am asking this here as I know that in the past, this forum and its notable participants, had offered unique insight views and even breaking news. Thanks guys - am plenty worried as I own property there (or think I do!!) - and I would think that many others here also.

SE Asia Joe,

I do not expect any major changes of the Thai laws reg. the ownership of properties, except the modification of the foreign shareholding in companies.

If you own a condo the foreign owernership within a building is restricted to 50 % of the units in the moment. There are discussions to increase that to 70 %. But - nothing changed there up to now.

If you own land you need one or two companies and at least 7 shareholders. In the future it will be checked that the shareholders REALLY put money into the company, and are not only functioning as proxies. Furthermore there was in the past the option to assign a higher number of votes for one single shareholder (the foreigner). That is not possible any more.

Old company structures are either grandfathered, or have to change the company contracts within one year, depending on their business activities. No details specified up to now.


Giotto

[SE Asia Joe]

Giotto:
Not sure if this would be appropriate here or not - but I know that you've been very accomodating AND is very up-to-date with all that is happening in Thailand. Do you know about developments in the laws regarding property ownership in Thailand? I've posted the following enquiry in the Thai Boards:
>> What is happening with property developments in Thailand - specifically in regards to laws specifying majority ownership of developments by Thai nationals. As far as I know, in the past, these laws were only techinally abided to - by the use of reduced voting rights by the Thai national shareholders, by signing blank transfer forms or subjugating shareholding etc. Now I hear that the Thai Government is cracking down and examining the actual wherewithal of these Thai National Nominees, cracking down on reduced voting rights etc - to the point that it is impossible for a Foreign national to have SECURE title to any properties bought in Thainland. WHAT IS THE REAL LOW DOWN ON ALL THIS?? Am asking this here as I know that in the past, this forum and its notable participants, had offered unique insight views and even breaking news. Thanks guys - am plenty worried as I own property there (or think I do!!) - and I would think that many others here also.

[Giotto]

After the new foreign business laws we again saw a sell-off on the Thai stock market yesterday. Today we then rebounded up to 622 in the index.

The situation is interesting now - all bad news should be visible in the actual stock market prices already. For those people who are willing to take risks it could now be the right moment to buy. Another short time buying signal would occur if the index moves above 638 / 639.

All that is only a short- to medium time speculation, I still believe that many foreign investers will use any higher stock prices to sell and move out of Thailand. The maximum rebound potential in the index in the moment should be around 680.


Giotto

[Horatio]

Horatio,

Japan is in my POV not really an Emerging Market, though I expect Japanese stocks to do well this year. But to invest in an Emerging Market fund in Japan (Yen fund) makes sense, because you should benefit from rising stock prices and Yen appreciation in the future.

I never checked that out, but I can ask my broker which kind of this funds he knows and how to buy them.


Giotto

I didnt mean Japan as an emerging market, it was another idea I had for investing. I am not really a technical investor, I try to buy on good fundamentals. The P/E on the emerging mkt funds I am investing in is in the teens. I am only putting a little money in each month so it will help me if the price goes down so long as it goes up in the end.

Thanks for any advice you can give me.

Warmest regards
Horatio

[Giotto]

We opened again sharply lower, the SET reached 629 as the lowest point. Now the question is whether we interprete the gap as being closed or not.

The market is oversold, a correction is clearly indicated. I would like to see another selling wave further downwards - then I think the worst is over.


Giotto

[Giotto]

What do you think about investing in SEA in general?
...

Horatio,

I still see SEA as a strong growing area of the world, but the world stock index of Asia Pacific compared to the world index itself is topping and at a resistance already since 2 month, and we should see a correction before to invest. Read the technical analysis of Bangkok Post on Mondays.

Japan is in my POV not really an Emerging Market, though I expect Japanese stocks to do well this year. But to invest in an Emerging Market fund in Japan (Yen fund) makes sense, because you should benefit from rising stock prices and Yen appreciation in the future.

I never checked that out, but I can ask my broker which kind of this funds he knows and how to buy them.


Giotto

[Dizz Hizz]

What do you think about investing in SEA in general? Emerginging markets have been up for several years now. I started investing in mutual funds in emerging mkts bonds and emerging mkt stocks, and one fund in Japan. I will be dollar cost averaging in to these funds. My time horizon is several years. I think emerging mkts might stall for awhile, so I will be building a position.

The Yen has lost against the $ and the Euro over the last year. I dont think that the $ will do well in the future. Americans dont save and the deficit is huge. I think that it is a good time to specualate in Japanes Yen, but I dont know how to do that as a small investor. I wish I could buy a group of diverse short term bonds which pay in Yen. What do you think?

Horatio

Just taking a quick stab, but I also think that investing into SEA could be a good idea, especially in emerging markets such as Vietnam and Indonesia, given the outflow of foreign capital contributing to a weak US Dollar and a decreasing scaledown of IPOs in the Chinese market. Foreign capital should take flight into developing markets for maturation and thus could be a more profitable investment route.

[Horatio]

What do you think about investing in SEA in general? Emerginging markets have been up for several years now. I started investing in mutual funds in emerging mkts bonds and emerging mkt stocks, and one fund in Japan. I will be dollar cost averaging in to these funds. My time horizon is several years. I think emerging mkts might stall for awhile, then continue their rise so I will be building a position.

The Yen has lost against the $ and the Euro over the last year. I dont think that the $ will do well in the future. Americans dont save and the deficit is huge. I think that it is a good time to specualate in Japanes Yen, but I dont know how to do that as a small investor. Everbank is one option, but only for larger investors. I wish I could buy a group of diverse short term bonds which pay in Yen. What do you think?

Horatio

edited to add a few things

[Giotto]

"Buy on the cannons, sell on the trumpets.” -Old French Proverb.

Bombs and canonfire have to sound pretty much alike.

Horatio,

yes, I know that, I was expecting this respond.

First the gap must be closed down to 622 (from last week). And then I still remember a BoT decision from 2 weeks ago ... and that is the reason to NOT invest in Thai stocks.

You don't know what this brainless people will do next.


Giotto

[Horatio]

Did I mention that the stock market was down 20 points yesterday and 8 today? No?

OK, nobody is surprised. Index around 650 now.

Keep your fingers away from Thai stocks.


Giotto

"Buy on the cannons, sell on the trumpets.” -Old French Proverb.

Bombs and canonfire have to sound pretty much alike.

[Giotto]

Did I mention that the stock market was down 20 points yesterday and 8 today? No?

OK, nobody is surprised. Index around 650 now.

Keep your fingers away from Thai stocks.


Giotto

[Yi Ren]

Yi Ren,

Cry ???

Giotto

I'll have to request extra towels from Housekeeping!

-Y