Thai Stock Market

[Giotto]

If someone had the foresight on the date of Giotto's post above (6/27/2011) to buy stocks that had been decimated by Thaksin's troubles he'd be up big time:

INTUCH (new symbol for Shin Corp.) : +88%

ADVANC: +80%

THCOM: +85%

SET Index: +19%

Tiny 12,

LOL. The Thaksin stocks.

But you did not want to look at the Thai stock prices in October 2011! The SET dropped from around 1100 in July to 900 in October.


Giotto

[Tiny 12]

If somebody owns Thai stocks right now: There are elections next weekend.

The impact will be significant. I expect a landslide victory for the PT (Thaksins Party) , who has won the last 3 elections, too.

http://www.livingstones.co.th

If someone had the foresight on the date of Giotto's post above (6/27/2011) to buy stocks that had been decimated by Thaksin's troubles he'd be up big time:

INTUCH (new symbol for Shin Corp.) : +88%

ADVANC: +80%

THCOM: +85%

SET Index: +19%

[Giotto]

.

To follow up on your insightful pre election report, I thought forum members might be interested in this post election analysis by the Asia Today WSJ. The thing is nobody knows what will happen in Thailand post election and this uncertainty will weigh heavy on foreign investment.

http://online.wsj.com/video/asia-tod...hpp_mpvidcar_2

On a shallow note; am I the only guy here who thinks Pou is kind of hot?

Natty Bumpo,

Thanks for the link. Up to now the stock market appreciated the election results a lot, it's strongly up yesterday and today.

Pou is hot, no question at all. Fantastic move from Thaksin to bring her into the game.


Giotto
http://www.livingstones.co.th

[Member #4698]

Back to the stock market: Everybody invested in Thailand should seriously think whether he really wants to own Thai stocks after next weekend! Besides all the risks of the world markets (let's just mention Greece) there is a lot additional risk for the Thai market. I don't think that international fund managers will show major interest in the Thai market until the political crisis is solved. And this can last some more years.

http://www.livingstones.co.th

Giotto,

To follow up on your insightful pre election report, I thought forum members might be interested in this post election analysis by the Asia Today WSJ. The thing is nobody knows what will happen in Thailand post election and this uncertainty will weigh heavy on foreign investment. http://online.wsj.com/video/asia-tod...hpp_mpvidcar_2

On a shallow note; am I the only guy here who thinks Pou is kind of hot?

[Giotto]

If somebody owns Thai stocks right now: There are elections next weekend.

The impact will be significant. I expect a landslide victory for the PT (Thaksins Party) , who has won the last 3 elections, too. But this time the victory will be more important than ever before, for several reasons:

- the DP had about 3 years to convince the people that the old establishment and their policies are good for Thailand. And they obviously failed to do so.

- the economy is in relative good shape (though the money is ending up in the pockets of the rich, growth is socially unbalanced) , but still the people will not support the actual government.

- the coup of 2006 is not forgotten.

- the demonstrations of last year causing the death of 92 people are not forgotten.

The stock market usually anticipates certain developments, and though it fell during the past weeks it is still quite high. There is still the hope that PT will not get a majority, and that the conservative coalition around the DP could prevail. THIS IS NOT GOING TO HAPPEN!

After staging a coup against a democratic elected government (it does not really matter whether Thaksin was corrupt or not, good or bad) , the questionable implementation of the actual coalition (buying politicians out of PPP, convincing parties to join the coalition with heaps of money and pressure from powerful people in the background) the old elite is running out of options to keep the power. Whatever they decide to do, the red movement comes back and back, and it even gets stronger. Significant will be that the PT most likely will win the majority of seats in Bangkok. And that will be an eye opener for many who still hope that it could somehow go on with the Thai political system as it worked in the past. THIS IS NOT GOING TO HAPPEN!

Thailand is besides China and Singapore one of the strongest exporters of Asia. That has worked well in the past, and after feeling only a minor impact of the financial crisis of 2008/2009 (the Thai banks had not participated in most of the speculations that lead to the crisis, because they were still recovering from the Asia Financial Crises 1997/1998) the recovering exports generated 7. 8 % growth last year. But investors are not blind. They know about the political rift in the country and the political instability resulting from that. Major investments have NOT been done in the past few years, and it must be expected, that new investments in the region will not necessarily been done in Thailand but in China.

If the elite realizes that the attempts of the past to keep in power against the clear results of elections failed the last remaining strategy of those people might be the massively move money / capital out of the country. Run the economy down, to make clear, that the PT cannot fulfill their promises (because the money is simply not available) , and that things get WORSE with a PT government. I believe that this strategy will be implemented for the next few years.

Back to the stock market: Everybody invested in Thailand should seriously think whether he really wants to own Thai stocks after next weekend! Besides all the risks of the world markets (let's just mention Greece) there is a lot additional risk for the Thai market. I don't think that international fund managers will show major interest in the Thai market until the political crisis is solved. And this can last some more years.

Giotto.

http://www.livingstones.co.th

[Stevebny]

As each day passes we are getting closer to bigger and bigger problems. We are in a debt trap spiral that we cannot get out off. A whirlpool which has no bottom.

As debt increases more and more people fall into it until you are left with the few Elite holding the power and the slaves / serfs / middle lower classes feeding into it. Isn't this how revolutions get started?

[Giotto]

Giotto,

Remember we talked a bit about what would happen if countries switched from the USD to something else.

Well, it's happening (but I'm sure you've already heard).

Yikes!

Red Square,

don't really get you. If countries would switch from the USD to something else the USD were weak - but in the last few days the opposite was the case.

No question, many countries WANT to diversify their currency reserves ...


Giotto
http://www.livingstones.co.th

[Red Square]

Giotto,

Remember we talked a bit about what would happen if countries switched from the USD to something else.

Well, it's happening (but I'm sure you've already heard).

Yikes!

[Cyberspace]

...


I am still holding on to my view that there will be an attck on Iran.
With all economic problems surfacing a diversion is badly needed.


M M

Really? Thailand is planning a war with Iran for the sake of a diversion? And to think I heard it here first in the Thai Stock Market forum of InternationalSexGuide. Who knew?

[Giotto]

It appears that the government's ( all governments) hold on the rope is slipping and they are worried. Maybe a few feet left before it slips off fully.The weekend's G20 meet is basically to advise them to open their printing presses.
...
Get out of stocks totally .as also Treasuries, bonds etc. Governments who have been issuing short term notes will simply put off redemption, effectively default. Easiest things to do. For citizens holding these- it will be patriotism. For foreigners - tough luck- they took the chance.

Mature Man,

Wow, perfect timing ... congratulations!


Giotto

[Mature Man]

It appears that the government's ( all governments) hold on the rope is slipping and they are worried. Maybe a few feet left before it slips off fully.The weekend's G20 meet is basically to advise them to open their printing presses.
This is no soloution and is intended to only delay things till war breaks out when the human populace will be told patriotism is the order of the day and to forget the/their economic crisis. That LIfe and existence by itself was far more important than money.

As each day passes we are getting closer to bigger and bigger problems. We are in a debt trap spiral that we cannot get out off. A whirlpool which has no bottom.

My advice continues to be- hold gold and silver and enough cash to sustain yourself. Get out of stocks totally .as also Treasuries, bonds etc. Governments who have been issuing short term notes will simply put off redemption, effectively default. Easiest things to do. For citizens holding these- it will be patriotism. For foreigners - tough luck- they took the chance.

Thanks G

The situation appears to be getting out of hand. Trust governments to blunder. Because all they are interested is in seeing their own continuance. Raising funds when revenues are dropping and interest rates are low is a no go. And now when every country is in debt and has problems there can be no white knights to the rescue. Most people have forgotten that Iceland, Dubai etc are all still unsolved. All that talk of greenshoots and recovery are seen for what they are - blatant lies.

Govts. have now gotten themselves into a situation- Damned if you do and damned if you dont. People all over are loosing faith in them

Today's dollar value and purchase power will look like a joke in the future.
I am still holding on to my view that there will be an attck on Iran.
With all economic problems surfacing a diversion is badly needed.


M M

[Mature Man]

Thanks G

The situation appears to be getting out of hand. Trust governments to blunder. Because all they are interested is in seeing their own continuance. Raising funds when revenues are dropping and interest rates are low is a no go. And now when every country is in debt and has problems there can be no white knights to the rescue. Most people have forgotten that Iceland, Dubai etc are all still unsolved. All that talk of greenshoots and recovery are seen for what they are - blatant lies.

Govts. have now gotten themselves into a situation- Damned if you do and damned if you dont. People all over are loosing faith in them

Today's dollar value and purchase power will look like a joke in the future.
I am still holding on to my view that there will be an attck on Iran.
With all economic problems surfacing a diversion is badly needed.


M M

Mature Man,

No problem at all - still early enough.

Well done!


Giotto

[Giotto]

Hi G

Sorry for not responding earlier. Been terribly busy with my many issues.
...

Mature Man,

No problem at all - still early enough.

Well done!


Giotto

[Mature Man]

Hi G

Sorry for not responding earlier. Been terribly busy with my many issues.

As I have always said earlier the problem today is the fact that it is not a liquidity problem alone. It is an insolvency problem. The liquidity problem arises out of the fact no bank trusts another one and as they themselves need the money to keep afloat.
All this QE has gone to saving the banks and Financial institutions. Now it is pay back time and the tax payer will again be made to pay- this time to the Govts - effectively paying for the bailouts.The banks should have been allowed to fail and the system cleaned. Instead the crap was covered by carpets and now the pile has grown so big that the smell and stink cannot be controlled anymore.
The insolvency problem continues, the frauds by Goldman Sachs. JPM etc continue . AIG the dead man kept alive continues to pay out the guarantees on the derivative swap bets.
Now finally Greek bonds have been rated junk, to be followed by Portugal & Spain.
Actually the British pound and the US $ are in even worse shape but the media is not showing them in the limelight.

We are in for tremendous changes . Timing is one thing I have never been able to predict. But most events - yes- i have been successful.
There is a good chance the Euro may be left as only Germany's currency-in effect back the to the DM.

In my opinion choosing between the US$ and the Euro is like choosing between HIV Positive and Herpes.

Stick to a major portion of your assets in Gold & Silver. When the new global reserve currency shows up , these assets should save your day.

Stock markets can never move up when Bonds collapse and currencies are unpredictable.

My only word of advise- is to have cash and some assets in precious metals for the next 6 months by which time most events will unfold.

Mature Man,

I watched the ride for more than 30 days ... and I made money! The USD - looks good for me !

The world is still ok - but during the last 2 days we had the RED ALERTS I was waiting for (rising yields of the T-Bonds), and next Friday we will get most likely a positive Labour Market Report ...

Now - I am worried!!!

I think everybody should really reconsider stock market investments in the next few months ... wait and see what happens.

This is - as usual - my POV.


Giotto

[Giotto]

As the Thai stock market is going down, the rate of USD to Thai baht is getting worse. Why is this? Wouldn't it be the other way around?

BP

Bronx Prowler,

Thailand has still a high trade surplus - that keeps the THB strong. It might change though, within the next few months.


Giotto