Thai Stock Market

[Mature Man]

One must always remember that for every profit there is a loss ( either notional or actual). No one can be right all the time. If you are more often right than wrong you will be still be ahead.
But the problem is greed takes over. Those who make money in stocks not only plough back all their profits, they put more money into it, either their own or by borrowing.They know nothing about the company they invest in, its products, its balance sheet etc.When the markets collapse their entire money goes. And there many who invest in mutual funds and think they will not be affected. They fail to realise that these funds hold different stocks and that their fund managers use their money to take risks to earn more money for themselves. When funds collapse, the fund managers throw up their hands. Their only loss is the bonus that they would get on better returns. They still take their fat salaries and go home.
In a market like this ,only the profits should ride, if it rides at all.The capitalshould be back in the bank accounts ( I would choose the banks - most banks are actually bankrupt if you take the effect of the derivatives they hold)
Yes, most of us remember Baruch's mentioning that he decided to call it a day when his shoeshine boy asked him what was good to buy. The Wall street sell off started immediately thereafter.
Poor maids, they will end up selling their stock ( their bodies) more over the years.

Mature Man,

Thanks, as long as we hear many voices like this (and my voice earlier this year)... the hausse will go on. When everybody then only talks about rising stock prices, and the maids are buying stocks - then it is time to sell.


Giotto

[Giotto]

...
IMHO you should get out of the market

Mature Man,

Thanks, as long as we hear many voices like this (and my voice earlier this year)... the hausse will go on. When everybody then only talks about rising stock prices, and the maids are buying stocks - then it is time to sell.


Giotto

[Mature Man]

Money alone does not make a market. While it may do so temporarily there is no assured continuity. Markets today are no longer isolated. Marktes are going up without reacting to basic and fundamental happenings, failures of subprime loans in the US which can throw entire financial markets astray, oil prices back in the 70's and the very fluid situation in the middle east which can explode any day now. With the US printing press being run 24 hours a day by the Fed the money supply in every country has increased tremendously. In turn, the governments of these countries are holding the valueless greenbacks in their reserves
A lot of money laundering is also taking place and funds from the US are flowing into the Far East (non muslim countries) and to Dubai in the middle east.
IMHO you should get out of the market

SET: 848 (!)
THB: 33.7 here in Thailand.

Massive capital inflow into the markets.


Giotto

[Giotto]

SET: 848 (!)
THB: 33.7 here in Thailand.

Massive capital inflow into the markets.


Giotto

[Giotto]

...and it happened. SET: 817 in the moment.


Giotto

[Giotto]

...
Charts submit a pricetarget of 800 or equal to 1000-1200 in set within 18 month

Fundamentaly there is a dramatic change in policies in Thailand.

The major point, the new goverment, crack down on corruption, and this consequently, not only against taxsin

First time ever!
...

Mike Frankfurt,

hmmm...

I agree that techically the SET looks good in the moment, and it will look even better if it breaks the 785/790 resistance.

But - that there is a dramatic change in politics in Thailand - this is quite new for me. And that this government cracks down on corruption, that is very new for me. There is a witch hunt ongoing against Thaksin and his family, but that is [nearly] all what I can see. This government is not too active...

The fundamentals behind this hausse at the stock market are slim, basically the very low P/E ratio of Thai listed companies compared to the other asian markets. And there is the idea that the upcoming elections in december will have a positive impact on the economy.

Growth rates in March and April were above expectations, another good news for the markets.

If we think about the elections we should not forget, that the power afterwards will be most likely returned to that party which ruled Thailand for decades before the Thasin government. The old power clique returnes to power. More than 100 high ranking politians from the TRT party were banned from politics for 5 years, there will not be a real opposition in the new parliament. Whether we will have a stabile and active government after the election under this circumstances - I have my doubts.

Investment into stocks in Thailand is more risky than ever. But - as everybody knows - an environment like this creates sometimes huge upside potential for stocks.


Giotto

[Mike Frankfurt]

Set 50 in major bullmarketcicle since 3 month

The set 50 was going sideways for nearly 4 years, there was a breakout of the chanell two month ago. Set 50 hit new highs last week.

Charts submit a pricetarget of 800 or equal to 1000-1200 in set within 18 month

Fundamentaly there is a dramatic change in policies in Thailand.

The major point, the new goverment, crack down on corruption, and this consequently, not only against taxsin

First time ever!

Earnings would stay flat for the next 3 quarters, with improving reslutts in 2008, even if worldmarkets would slow down.

But investors take caution!

The market have a lot of shit shares, stay on fundamentals and dividends, and watch price to sales, and.

Don't trust Thai companys, their are a lot of bandits out, and there is no subsainibility in Thai companys.

[Freeman 418]

Hehe, yeah i remembered those predictions on getting out at that time.. well maybe you weren't wrong, there was just some more juice left in the market still.

You were right about the volatility of the Chinese markets.. up and down 8% in Shanghai is no longer scaring other world markets now, like it did the first time it happened end last year.

Let's wait next week to see if the US markets recover from this week's correction, or completely halt the bull market.

Freeman 418,

The SET should see a correction, too. But - I was wrong with everything what I expected in the last half year. I will shut up...


Giotto

[Giotto]

Nice correction coming up in the world markets soon.
The DAX which was ready to hit 8000 is about to go back down below 7500.
Let's see what next week has in store with the US markets.
ASX had a lot of cheap good stocks on sale today.. if only my $$$ wasnt still tied up in resource stocks, which I need to wait on, until the next "up" day.

Any bargains on the SET?

Freeman 418,

The SET should see a correction, too. But - I was wrong with everything what I expected in the last half year. I will shut up...


Giotto

[Freeman 418]

Nice correction coming up in the world markets soon.
The DAX which was ready to hit 8000 is about to go back down below 7500.
Let's see what next week has in store with the US markets.
ASX had a lot of cheap good stocks on sale today.. if only my $$$ wasnt still tied up in resource stocks, which I need to wait on, until the next "up" day.

Any bargains on the SET?

[Mark Pinksy]

Can anyone give me pointers on how to go about investing in Thai stocks e.g. opening a brokerage account, etc.

Thanks in advance.

[Giotto]

The Thai Baht at the onshore market below 35 to the USD, offshore 32.49 as a low. Speculations that the BOT might lift the 30 % reserve rule on capital import.

Clearly visible again, that interventions of a Central Bank in the markets usually do not work - if, then only a very short time. The further outlook for this year sees the USD rebounding to 36.5 until the middle of this year, before the next downturn will start.

Stock Markets: The next selling wave has started, this time in New York. The better than expected GM results turned the marked around then last night, but - for how long...

I hope some of you out there are still short. In my POV the worst still to come.


Giotto

[Brain666]

Any discussions about why the Baht is so strong at the moment and keeps decreasing in relation to USD, AUD etc. ??

Does this have to do with huge amounts of capital being suddenly pulled out of China equities and markets and pumped anywhere else such as Thailand?? Surely this has got to hurt Thai exports..

I was shocked on Monday when I saw it hit around 25.5 Bt per 1 AUD.. a few years back I was getting 33+ per 1 AUD.. now that's around the price for 1 USD!!

I've already booked my ticket to LOS.. but man, I'm hoping it's not too tight lol.

The issue are the weak dollar countries, especially the US$ and not the strength of the Baht. Against e.g. the euro there is only a slight increase over more then 6 months, also against the won. So for me mongering is rather stable!

But the however weack dollor would not be enough to ever think mongering in the US (strange idea anyhow).

regards

Brain666

[Giotto]

Any discussions about why the Baht is so strong at the moment and keeps decreasing in relation to USD, AUD etc. ??

Does this have to do with huge amounts of capital being suddenly pulled out of China equities and markets and pumped anywhere else such as Thailand?? Surely this has got to hurt Thai exports..

I was shocked on Monday when I saw it hit around 25.5 Bt per 1 AUD.. a few years back I was getting 33+ per 1 AUD.. now that's around the price for 1 USD!!

I've already booked my ticket to LOS.. but man, I'm hoping it's not too tight lol.

Freeman 418,

do not exchange in the offshore market - exchange HERE IN THAILAND!

Don't know the rate from today, but on Monday it was still > 35.5 against the USD . The BOT tries to keep the THB exchange rate for the USD above 35.0 .

Background in the moment is NOT the strength of the THB, but the weakness of the USD and other $-currencies.


Giotto

[Freeman 418]

Any discussions about why the Baht is so strong at the moment and keeps decreasing in relation to USD, AUD etc. ??

Does this have to do with huge amounts of capital being suddenly pulled out of China equities and markets and pumped anywhere else such as Thailand?? Surely this has got to hurt Thai exports..

I was shocked on Monday when I saw it hit around 25.5 Bt per 1 AUD.. a few years back I was getting 33+ per 1 AUD.. now that's around the price for 1 USD!!

I've already booked my ticket to LOS.. but man, I'm hoping it's not too tight lol.