Thai Stock Market

[Bronx Prowler]

As the Thai stock market is going down, the rate of USD to Thai baht is getting worse. Why is this? Wouldn't it be the other way around?

BP

[Fon Tok]

The Bangkok Post reports: SET index down 3.64%, Monday 12 April

The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) composite index on Monday lost 28.76 points or 3.64 per cent to close at 760.90 points. The market value was 35.21 billion baht, with 3.61 billion shares traded.

The SET100 index ended the session at 1,156.06 points, down 48.36 points or 4.02 per cent, with a total trade value of 32.46 billion baht.

The SET50 index fell 23.08 points or 4.12 per cent to stay at 536.62 points, with a total transaction value of 28.86 billion baht.

The Market for Alternative Investment (mai) index went down 4.23 points or 2.02 per cent to close at 204.78 points, with a total turnover of 125.78 million baht.

Top five most active values were as follows;
PTT closed at 256.00 baht, down by 13.00 or 4.83 per cent.
KTB closed at 13.10 baht, down by 0.80 or 5.76 per cent.
BBL closed at 116.00 baht, down by 6.50 or 5.31 per cent.
KBANK closed at 92.00 baht, down by 5.25 or 5.40 per cent.
PTTEP closed at 146.00 baht, down by 2.50 or 1.68 per cent.

[Excess]

FWIW - There is an old US Stock Market saying that is not always right but right enough times. This year I am going to take the advice and seriously reduce my own portfolios covering several markets as it suggests:

"Sell in May and Go away" - going away refers to the summer months and reconsider again in the autumn.

E.

Mature Man,

I watched the ride for more than 30 days ... and I made money! The USD - looks good for me !

The world is still ok - but during the last 2 days we had the RED ALERTS I was waiting for (rising yields of the T-Bonds), and next Friday we will get most likely a positive Labour Market Report ...

Now - I am worried!!!

I think everybody should really reconsider stock market investments in the next few months ... wait and see what happens.

This is - as usual - my POV.


Giotto

[Giotto]

Hi G


Have learnt to live with alternate views. Now lets just sit back and watch the ride next 30 days . And even if i am proved right , I dont get any pleasure in seeing people's money and savings getting wiped out .

M M

Mature Man,

I watched the ride for more than 30 days ... and I made money! The USD - looks good for me !

The world is still ok - but during the last 2 days we had the RED ALERTS I was waiting for (rising yields of the T-Bonds), and next Friday we will get most likely a positive Labour Market Report ...

Now - I am worried!!!

I think everybody should really reconsider stock market investments in the next few months ... wait and see what happens.

This is - as usual - my POV.


Giotto

[Mature Man]

hi g


have learnt to live with alternate views. now lets just sit back and watch the ride next 30 days . and even if i am proved right , i dont get any pleasure in seeing people's money and savings getting wiped out .

m m

mature man,

i don't really want to discuss this issue. i know that the abilities of many politicians are limited, but i also know that many of them try their best.

nevertheless - i don't think that fingerpointing at the banks helps, neither does it point into the right direction. the banks of course are partially responsible for the financial crisis with their overly supported sales activities of cheap credits - but in reality the crisis was [bisides other factors) caused by millions of american taxpayers who speculated in properties with the intention to get rich without working too much. and many banks had then to pay for the bill (= sitting on devaluated properties, no payment for the mortgages).

i love to watch this discussions about "the american taxpayer", how to protect him from bank bailouts to happen again - hypocracy pure! many participated in this game and don't want to know about this any more.

and the speeches of the president somehow remind me on the speaches of thaksin ... populism pure. i wish he would stand in front of the microphone and say: "americans, american taxpayers, never forget: it was mainly you who caused the crisis, not only for the americans, but also for all the world!"

but - how to get reelected then ?


giotto

[Giotto]

you still believe in govts? those leaders who will not put the perpetrators of the todays financial woes behind bars! those who change the accounting rules so that the frauds continue!! those who are selling you a mirage!!!
...

mature man,

i don't really want to discuss this issue. i know that the abilities of many politicians are limited, but i also know that many of them try their best.

nevertheless - i don't think that fingerpointing at the banks helps, neither does it point into the right direction. the banks of course are partially responsible for the financial crisis with their overly supported sales activities of cheap credits - but in reality the crisis was [bisides other factors) caused by millions of american taxpayers who speculated in properties with the intention to get rich without working too much. and many banks had then to pay for the bill (= sitting on devaluated properties, no payment for the mortgages).

i love to watch this discussions about "the american taxpayer", how to protect him from bank bailouts to happen again - hypocracy pure! many participated in this game and don't want to know about this any more.

and the speeches of the president somehow remind me on the speaches of thaksin ... populism pure. i wish he would stand in front of the microphone and say: "americans, american taxpayers, never forget: it was mainly you who caused the crisis, not only for the americans, but also for all the world!"

but - how to get reelected then ?


giotto

[Mature Man]

You still believe in Govts? Those leaders who will not put the perpetrators of the todays financial woes behind bars! Those who change the accounting rules so that the frauds continue!! Those who are selling you a mirage!!!

The individual is tapped out for money. The behavioral change is that the individual now needs to look after himself- not his Govt.

Yes- shortly physical gold will command a much higher price to the paper ETF's etc.

M M

Mature Man,

Whether the chart is ok or not ... it anyway makes sense to me that we get into such a deep recession if the private sector does not overspend any more and pays back the debts. For that the goverment has to do the opposite to soften the impact of this behaviour change. All this sounds quite logical to me.

As for gold - do you want to indicate that there are faked bullions out there, and that in case that this is true and the papers start writing about it the physical gold price will go through the roof while the paper gold price will drop?


Giotto

[Giotto]

...

The chart is not okay- Hints at leveling off. US Debt has only gone higher. The US Treausry debt has moved up and the ceiling is to move up. Medicare and Social Security adds another $50-60 trillion to it. Then the individual States.

Tungsten has the density/SG as Gold. If tungsten is gold plated, then the product will have the same volume as gold. The Chinese just got some of these gold plated tugsten bars last Oct- ostensibly from London. The media has become very quiet on this by choice.
...

Mature Man,

Whether the chart is ok or not ... it anyway makes sense to me that we get into such a deep recession if the private sector does not overspend any more and pays back the debts. For that the goverment has to do the opposite to soften the impact of this behaviour change. All this sounds quite logical to me.

As for gold - do you want to indicate that there are faked bullions out there, and that in case that this is true and the papers start writing about it the physical gold price will go through the roof while the paper gold price will drop?


Giotto

[Mature Man]

Hi G

The chart is not okay- Hints at leveling off. US Debt has only gone higher. The US Treausry debt has moved up and the ceiling is to move up. Medicare and Social Security adds another $50-60 trillion to it. Then the individual States.

Tungsten has the density/SG as Gold. If tungsten is gold plated, then the product will have the same volume as gold. The Chinese just got some of these gold plated tugsten bars last Oct- ostensibly from London. The media has become very quiet on this by choice.

No fiat currency like the dollar etc has ever lasted more than 200-250 years throughout history. While oil was/ is being manipulated upwards- Gold has been manipulated downwards. Because the powers that be, the politicians do not want to loose the power of the printing press.

When you understand what the trillions of dollars of CDS has done/can do to the financial system you will understand how the dollar can be manipulated.
The world leaders are a bunch of fools or are in cahoots with the cabal who run the Fed ( a private bank) when they follow the US dollar as a reserve currency. We live in a society where most leaders live for themselves.

M M

Mature Man,

here the link again:

http://market-ticker.denninger.net/xxx/2009/12.html

Please replace xxx with "archives".

I don't get it. How to understand tungsten (Wolfram) in this context?

Nahhh,

I don't buy that the US $ can be manipulated. 3+ trillion turnover each single day ...

Gold - yep, I hear this many times, some central banks have bought in the fourth quarter last year, and some will most likely buy again when the gold price falls to 1000 US $ again. Nevertheless - it does not make sense to me. The gold system is a system of the past, and I don't think it will be reinstated in any financial system of the future.

If somebody explains to me why something is so special with gold compared to other precious metals ... may be I change my mind. Again - I would hold some gold, but I would not solely put my money into gold assuming that it is the only acceptable investment opportunity right now.

I also don't like this crazy predictions of gold prices above US $ 1500/2000 . If predictions like this pop up the hausse is most likely over. We saw that when the Oil price was predicted to reach US $ 250 - 300 in 2007, when it was trading above US $ 140. And then - it started to fall.


Giotto

[Giotto]

...
Could'nt find out in that article where debt has reduced.
...

Mature Man,

here the link again:

http://market-ticker.denninger.net/xxx/2009/12.html

Please replace xxx with "archives".

...
On Gold checking for for tungsten .
...

I don't get it. How to understand tungsten (Wolfram) in this context?

...
The US$ is being manipulated. How on earth can the dollar show strength based on the Euro's problem! Both are in trouble. Does not mean that one is better than the other. Just means you need an alternative place to park your funds. - which is gold. In any new financial system it is inevitable for Gold to find a place in the basket.
...

Nahhh,

I don't buy that the US $ can be manipulated. 3+ trillion turnover each single day ...

Gold - yep, I hear this many times, some central banks have bought in the fourth quarter last year, and some will most likely buy again when the gold price falls to 1000 US $ again. Nevertheless - it does not make sense to me. The gold system is a system of the past, and I don't think it will be reinstated in any financial system of the future.

If somebody explains to me why something is so special with gold compared to other precious metals ... may be I change my mind. Again - I would hold some gold, but I would not solely put my money into gold assuming that it is the only acceptable investment opportunity right now.

I also don't like this crazy predictions of gold prices above US $ 1500/2000 . If predictions like this pop up the hausse is most likely over. We saw that when the Oil price was predicted to reach US $ 250 - 300 in 2007, when it was trading above US $ 140. And then - it started to fall.


Giotto

[Mature Man]

Hi G

Could'nt find out in that article where debt has reduced.

On Gold checking for for tungsten . The cat came out of the bag last Oct. GATA has been talking about how little actual gold remains in all the Central Bank vaults for some years now.
Here is an interesting article for you.

http://www.kitco.com/ind/willie/feb052010.html

The US$ is being manipulated. How on earth can the dollar show strength based on the Euro's problem! Both are in trouble. Does not mean that one is better than the other. Just means you need an alternative place to park your funds. - which is gold. In any new financial system it is inevitable for Gold to find a place in the basket.

M M

Hi,

there are different statistics, but one I found in the article that you recommended to read (Denninger) ...

http://market-ticker.denninger.net/a...s/2009/12.html

I try to attach the statistic as a picture.

Gold - clear. But what does "checked for tungsten content" mean?

Gold - I will get worried if the gold price rises in a stable USD environment. That does not happen at the moment. The USD was strengthening last week, and the gold price fell. All right, that's how it should be. No panic movements into gold.

I agree to hold gold as a part of the portfolio.


Giotto

[Giotto]

...
US Debts falling !!!!! Kindly let me know how? Only consumer debt is falling to my knowledge. The Government debts are piling up.

Hi,

there are different statistics, but one I found in the article that you recommended to read (Denninger) ...

http://market-ticker.denninger.net/a...s/2009/12.html

I try to attach the statistic as a picture.

...
Gold - Checked for tungsten content
...

Gold - clear. But what does "checked for tungsten content" mean?

Gold - I will get worried if the gold price rises in a stable USD environment. That does not happen at the moment. The USD was strengthening last week, and the gold price fell. All right, that's how it should be. No panic movements into gold.

I agree to hold gold as a part of the portfolio.


Giotto

[Mature Man]

Answers inside G.

In life , we live and learn. History will repeat if not taken cognizance off!

Mature Man,

you were always quite pessimistic ... .

Not so. Only the last 5 years when i could see where we were leading upto.


I disagree. The solvency of the banks is much better than end of 2008. But I agree, that the problem is NOT COMPLETELY FIXED yet, and that we have to return to accouting rules forcing the banks to to mark their assets/derivatives at market value.

No it is worse now than ever before

Agreed, some of the muck has been swept under the carpet. But nearly 2 trillion were written off, and more than 1 trillion bought by the FED. Something has happened (!), and Rome was not build in one day, too

Rome was burnt down and rebuilt. You cannot have a stink under your foundation


Let's hope for the best, but I don't expect too much from those meetings.

OK, where is the problem? Still the total US debts is falling (!!!). There is so much liquidity out there! And - if no buyers can be found any more (what I don't expect), the FED will bid for the debts (also to keep the yields down), the balance sheet will grow another few hundred billions - not nice, but it will NOT cause a major problem!

US Debts falling !!!!! Kindly let me know how? Only consumer debt is falling to my knowledge. The Government debts are piling up.

Inflation? In this economic environment with so many deflationary forces? I don't see it.

Then - what are you doing with your money? In your crash/inflation scenario cash will be devaluated, too.

Properties? Gold? Oil?

Gold - Checked for tungsten content

M M

[Mature Man]

Hi Fon Tok

I dont agree with Paul Krugman. Of course I am no Nobel candidate at all in the first place

Deficits do matter. And not cleaning up the massive frauds that have taken place does matter. The coop remains in charge of the same foxes( or should i say- criminals!) who are responsible for the mess in the first place.
You dont get the hens- the foxes will till such time as they remain.
If the system had been cleansed and then the stimulus money introduced I would have given some chance to a real recovery taking place.
The chances now in the existing system -IMHO- Zilch



MM

FYI...for interested ISG members.

Fiscal Scare Tactics
By PAUL KRUGMAN, New York Yimes Op-Ed Columnist. February 5, 2010
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/05/op...html?th&emc=th

"These days it’s hard to pick up a newspaper or turn on a news program without encountering stern warnings about the federal budget deficit. The deficit threatens economic recovery, we’re told; it puts American economic stability at risk; it will undermine our influence in the world. These claims generally aren’t stated as opinions, as views held by some analysts but disputed by others. Instead, they’re reported as if they were facts, plain and simple.

. Policy is headed in the wrong direction — and millions of Americans will pay the price."

[Giotto]

Hi G,
...
Cheers

Mature Man,

you were always quite pessimistic ... .

...
May i state that nothing has changed as far as the solvency of the banks goes. The changed FASB accounting rules ( Apr 25th 2009) that allowed banks to mark their assets/derivatives at cost intead of market value remains in place.
...

I disagree. The solvency of the banks is much better than end of 2008. But I agree, that the problem is NOT COMPLETELY FIXED yet, and that we have to return to accouting rules forcing the banks to to mark their assets/derivatives at market value.

...
What has happened is that all the muck has been swept under the carpet.
Hey everyone - everything is okay. Here is the stimulus- Hey we have recovered and everything is hunkydory. Wow, we have averted the the collapse ( poo cant be seen)

The muck- bad debt- should have been removed from the scene.
Now it festers, decays and the entire financial room has started to stink.
...

Agreed, some of the muck has been swept under the carpet. But nearly 2 trillion were written off, and more than 1 trillion bought by the FED. Something has happened (!), and Rome was not build in one day, too .

...
...
Right now there are 2 meetings going on. 1) The G7 heads in the Artic and 2) The Heads of Central Banks in Australia.
We are on the cusps of major announcement and possible changes.
...

Let's hope for the best, but I don't expect too much from those meetings.

...
...
By the way the US needs to raise close to $3.5 trillion this year to cover the deficits and replace the short terms notes falling due.
...

OK, where is the problem? Still the total US debts is falling (!!!). There is so much liquidity out there! And - if no buyers can be found any more (what I don't expect), the FED will bid for the debts (also to keep the yields down), the balance sheet will grow another few hundred billions - not nice, but it will NOT cause a major problem!

Inflation? In this economic environment with so many deflationary forces? I don't see it.

...
...
In my book however, I dont invest in crooked markets as the crooks are the ones behind the moves.
...

Then - what are you doing with your money? In your crash/inflation scenario cash will be devaluated, too.

Properties? Gold? Oil?



Giotto