Real vs Dollar and other currency issues

[Sperto]

Does anyone of you have experience comparing VISA-card versus MASTER-card? Is there any difference between them? Which one has the better acceptance in Brazil??

VISA is more accepted.

[Pyjama]

Does anyone of you have experience comparing VISA-card versus MASTER-card? Is there any difference between them? Which one has the better acceptance in Brazil??

I used to have a VISA-card for many years and made extensive use of it when travelling to Brazil (ATMs, hotels, restaurants etc). Now it has expired, so I got a new one from my bank. Problem is, my bank has changed from VISA to MASTER.

Are there still people around using traveller cheques? Haven't done this for a decade...

Pyjama, leaving in 2 weeks :-))

[Ryjerrob]

This morning doleiros paid 1,92 RS for the USD at Sr. d Nossa Copacaban. I went to three places and they all quoted similar.

Euro was 2,65 RS

Carlos

The sad thing for me is that I'll probably complain, but keep going as long as I can still breath.

ryjer

[Carlos Primeros]

This morning doleiros paid 1,92 RS for the USD at Sr. d Nossa Copacaban. I went to three places and they all quoted similar.

Euro was 2,65 RS

Carlos

[Java Man]

I heard a radio report this morning that the dollar had gained against the Japanese Yen. I thought maybe it gained on the Real too, but alas it only dropped: 1.842 today.

[Edward M]

http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-n...c-39daa497f0a2

"The Brazilian real is expected to end 2007 at BRL1.92 to the dollar, analysts forecast."

although it dropped again today

[Brazilman]

Its going to be tough to find another Brazil to monger at. Costa Rica is ok and Argentina sucks ass. I hear Praque is good, but the euro exchange probably isn't much better than the real. Jackson needs to start a new forum: "Mongering destinations like Brazil"

[Giggity]

The pound is down against the real, like the dollar, so is the euro. You can check on Yahoo..

http://finance.yahoo.com/currency/co...submit=Convert

This probably indicates that the Real is strong rather than the dollar or pound being weak. This usually occurs when a country's government is less fiscally irresponsible than others. According to the Wall Street Journal, Brazil is currently running a very low budget deficit (link), which requires fewer bond sales, which reduces the central bank's need to buy bonds in the event that nobody else wants them, which reduces the central bank's need to inflate the money supply to pay for those bonds (while other countries like the UK and US are currently doing exactly that at an alarming rate), which leads to the price of the real rising in terms of other currencies.

Don't worry, though. If there's one thing governments in general (especially those with less experience in economic policy) are good at, it's ruining an economic boom. I see two possible long-term results:

• People get really sick of the Brazilian government's notorious corruption, and elect some "progressive" politician to tax the hell out of them in order to fund a rapidly expanding welfare scheme, bringing the Brazilian economy down along with them. Businesses go broke, the supply of goods and services drops, people get poor, price of mongering goes down.
• People get sick of the high taxes and barriers to business that exist in Brazil, so they elect an even more right-wing leader to cut taxes. He won't eliminate government programs that are too closely connected to the special interests whose pockets he is in, so the budget deficit skyrockets bringing the long-term inflation rate with it. Price of Real goes down in terms of other currencies, thus price of mongering drops for foreigners.

This list is by no means exhaustive. There are plenty of subtleties in macroeconomic policy through which the Brazilian government can accidentally destroy the well being of the poorest citizens. You can expect any one of them to happen in the next few years. Failing that, some other wacko foreign government will do it all instead.

In the meantime, there are plenty of other places to monger, if you're willing to take a risk and look. That's what people were doing when they first uncovered Rio as a mongering destination. That's what the folks who report on Villa Mimosa are doing. There are plenty of untouched parts of Brazil, and the whole world to look. Be adventurous. I can't wait to join you once I graduate.

[DFWdude]

Its too bad the Reais has gotten so strong agaist the dollar, or the dollar so weak. Anyway Brazil is almost out of my leauge now in $$$.

[Charm City Dave]

I mentioned this before. I have invested in mutual fund EWR, a Brazil index fund. It has gone up 45% since March 1. I wish I had bought more.

This might be a bit safer than just buying Reias.. but then again, I am not a stock broker, just a lucky bastard who asked my broker to invest some of my portfolio in brazil, only because I live here.

It's a great investment. I've been in it two years and it is up 335%.

[Off Road]

The pound is down against the real, like the dollar, so is the euro. You can check on Yahoo..

http://finance.yahoo.com/currency/co...submit=Convert

[Londonboy]

Hi,

Has the Real gone up or down against the the UK Pound?

Thinking of going in the next few months,

It was near R$4 to the 1 UK Pound at the end of last year.

[Off Road]

I mentioned this before. I have invested in mutual fund EWR, a Brazil index fund. It has gone up 45% since March 1. I wish I had bought more.

This might be a bit safer than just buying Reias.. but then again, I am not a stock broker, just a lucky bastard who asked my broker to invest some of my portfolio in brazil, only because I live here.

[Giggity]

I made some calls today to see about buying some Reais for my next trip before my dollars become even more worthless. Citibank and HSBC do not sell Reais. American Express sells (and buys) at a loan-shark rate of 15%+$6. Anybody know of any better options?

You might try buying some "call-option" contracts on Reais for the month you plan on going. These securities basically reserve your right to buy the Real at a given price regardless of how much the price goes up in the future.

But then, you'd have to expect the value of the Real to continue rising (because the reserved USD/BRL price is worse than today's)... and I don't know how many Reais a contract is worth in the currency-options market. So, you might have to buy contracts on more Reais than you have any plan of using. If you have a securities broker, talk to him about currency options and tell him about your travel plans. He might have some more proper advice.

Of course, you could buy Reais directly through a ForEx account, but you usually have to buy tens of thousands of them at a time, which is probably useless to you. The same might go for options, in which case this entire post would be entirely useless. But, hey. I tried...

[Edward M]

Should go back up AFTER the Pan AM games. Everytime their is a major event in Brasil (IE Carnival) the exchange rates dip in their favor, its been that way for years.

I wish it were true but it is not. I just looked at the Real:dollar for Carnival and 4 weeks later for the last 11 years and it went up 6 and down 5. It took a drastic drop of 0.2383 in 2003 and averaged a 0.0166 loss over these 11 years not to mention an overall gain into Carnival with some big gains of 0.3248 in 1999 and 6 other years with gains as well vs only 4 with losses. See data below:

"4 weeks prior","Carnival","4 weeks after","4 weeks prior","Carnival","4 weeks after"
1/14/1997,2/11/1997,3/11/1997,1.0418,1.0466,1.0532
1/27/1998,2/24/1998,3/24/1998,1.1274,1.1344,1.1395
1/19/1999,2/16/1999,3/16/1999,1.5702,1.8950,1.8575
2/8/2000,3/7/2000,4/4/2000,1.7633,1.7454,1.7433
1/30/2001,2/27/2001,3/27/2001,1.9691,2.0324,2.1224
1/15/2002,2/12/2002,3/12/2002,2.3569,2.4565,2.3430
2/4/2003,3/4/2003,4/1/2003,3.5547,3.5647,3.3264
1/27/2004,2/24/2004,3/23/2004,2.8641,2.9610,2.9180
1/11/2005,2/8/2005,3/8/2005,2.7114,2.6312,2.6940
1/31/2006,2/28/2006,3/28/2006,2.2109,2.1196,2.2244
1/23/2007,2/20/2007,3/20/2007,2.1344,2.0927,2.0754