Real vs Dollar and other currency issues

[Bubba Boy]

there is no direct correlation between these guys that get it right on a big call once and their future predictions. history is littered with these guys that make one good call and then their subsequent calls are way off. even a broken clock is right twice a day.

someone like a warren buffet, george soros and jim rogers. those guys have consistently made the big calls and gotten them correct over decades. none of these guys are predicting what this nut on youtube is predicting. i know who my money is on to be correct.......

the dollar, i was very long us dollars (80% of my assets) when it was hated around 1.55 euros. i am now slightly short dollars, have moved into euros, swiss, and aussie dollars. still have maybe 30% assets in usd. if the us starts to weaken again i will move back to a neutral 50/50 position.

i am thinking the brl will stay in the mid 2's for the foreseable future. the days of 1.5 are over for the next few years. history has shown brazil suffers worst disasters than that is happening in the us now, on a regular basis. there is no way brazil is going to come out of this economic mess unrep001hed.
commodities have been hit hard, inflation way higher than most countries (think 15%, the government figures of 6% are just not credible), extremely inefficient corrupt economy, trade deficit....... the only thing brazil has done well of late is find massive potential oil reserves, however any decent oil production increases are probably 5 years away, full potential production is probably 10 years away.

[Magic2000]

If you are an American like me, this guy scares the shit out me.

Your thoughts...

Part 1 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TP_aJ...eature=related

Part 2 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=coaI3...eature=related

Don't get me wrong, I really agree with the dire prognosis for the dollar in the above youtube clips but in the interests of balancing the argument here's someone that might cheer you up (if you're an enternal glass half full type!)

Titled "Jubak’s Journal: This isn’t the Great Depression"

http://video.msn.com/?mkt=en-us&bran...roken&tab=s216

[Magic2000]

If you are an American like me, this guy scares the shit out me.

Your thoughts.

Part 1 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TP_aJ...eature=related

Part 2 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=coaI3...eature=related

One more link along the lines of Cowa Banga's post on Peter Schiff.

I'm inclined to agree, the dollar is headed for big trouble !

http://cosmos.bcst.yahoo.com/up/play...nce&ch=1316259

[Bubba Boy]

Yeah sure they are cheap but they could get even cheaper. Interestingly $1000 invested in stocks in the late 1920's was worth, well $1000 25 years later.

My thinking is when we find a bottom ( I am thinking maybe 700's on the S & P? possibly 600's?) we will get a nice 50% bump then stocks will do pretty much nothing for a decade or 2. Even when the economy improves, and it will improve in the next year or maybe 2, the deleveraging process will continue for a good decade.

For an interesting example on how develeraging affects growth. $1000 invested in the Janpanese index's in 1987 would be worth $200 today. Thats right the Nikkei was at 40,000 in 1987, it is around 8,000 now 20+ years later.

Me thinks one can make money trading positions, but buying stocks and holding then at this period in time is not going to produce stella returns. There have been a number of periods in history where stocks just did nothing for 10 to 20 years. This is most likely going to be one of those periods. Need to work off all the excesses built up in the system.

[Cowa Banga]

Your thoughts...

video 1 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ihL8wz4LUp4

video 2 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UAwGh...eature=related

video 3 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MKNl1...eature=related

[Dwilso39]

Good news is there are some tremendous bargins in stocks right now which have no place to go but up.

Bad news is that the Real, which is down to 2.33 today, is most like headed down farther.

Some in the financial media are finally getting it and speaking out. Here is one example.

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com...he-market.aspx

This continued talk of a $700b stimulus package is only going to hurt the exchange rate

[Exec Talent]

Good news is there are some tremendous bargins in stocks right now which have no place to go but up.

Bad news is that the Real, which is down to 2.33 today, is most like headed down farther.

Some in the financial media are finally getting it and speaking out. Here is one example.

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com...he-market.aspx

[Exec Talent]

If you are an American like me, this guy scares the shit out me.

Your thoughts...

Part 1 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TP_aJ...eature=related

Part 2 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=coaI3...eature=related

Peter is 100% right. He has been sounding the alarm for some time; it is just that no one was listening. I am told that guys are in Rio spending money now because they had trips planned and the exchange rate has risen. However, reality is that these same guys may not have jobs when they return. People have no idea how bad it is going to get.

Everyone always thinks the answer is money. It NEVER is. The answer is fundamental changes in behavior. Unfortunately, the government thinks that rewarding bad behavior is a good thing. The problem is our government doesn't get it. Peter does. Most people will be totally screwed for some time. And, if they want to blame someone, don't look at Wall Street, look in the mirror. How many people bought houses they never intended to live in so they could flip them? Who did they think was going to buy them? Someone actually had to live in them at some point. Loans were granted without documented income. Banks made their fees up front which were packaged into the loan. Isn't there something fundamentally wrong with that?

Enjoy Rio while you can. Maybe you are right. Unless you are sitting on a boat load of cash, it is a little scary.

[Cowa Banga]

If you are an American like me, this guy scares the shit out me.

Your thoughts...

Part 1 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TP_aJ...eature=related

Part 2 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=coaI3...eature=related

[Java Man]

Live rates at 2008.11.21 17:46:44 UTC
1.00 USD = 2.45265 BRL

It went up slightly from yesterday morning:
Live rates at 2008.11.22 07:32:44 UTC
1.00 USD = 2.47700 BRL

www.xe.com/ucc

[JohnnyBraz]

Countries like Brazil, their real floats on the stock market, based on comodities, meaning if shares are at a high, there real is at a high, other countries like Thailand for instance, there thai baht, is pegged against the usa dollar, so it floats in hard currency against the us dollar, very similar. Weak countries have to peg there currency against the us dollar, as they have virtually zero or little commodities market.commodities markets at an all time high, us dollar v's real at it's weakest. Basic economics.

[Jamaicanceo]

Brazil trader shoots himself on stock exchange trading floor

Monday November 17, 2008, 4:02 pm EST

SAO PAULO, Brazil (AP) -- A stock exchange trader has shot himself on the trading floor in Brazil.

Sao Paulo's Bovespa stock exchange says the 36-year-old man shot himself in the chest a couple of hours before markets closed in South America's biggest city.

The Bovespa statement says Paulo Sergio Silva was taken to a hospital, but his condition was not immediately available.

It was not clear if he shot himself due to the recent sharp losses in Brazilian stocks or for other reasons.

Trading was halted for a few minutes after the shot was fired on Monday.

[El Greco]

As I live here and drive on daily basis, I have to say that if you intent to drive in the city only you're just plain crazy. Traffic is insane, no parking space etc.

BUT if you decide to rent a car please do following:

When you get the car, check it with the rental agent WITH A MAGNIFYING GLASS because that's what they will do when you return the car. ANY damage will be charged. The worst is that they do not have any prices for particular damage, they just estimate and make you pay.

As Poucolouco mentioned there are lots of radars in Rio, even for passing red light. You just need to know them. Tickets can be issued up to one month after the actual incident, so you can expect additional charges on your credit card if something like that happens.

I would recommend renting a car if one plans to make some field trips to nearby cities like Petropolis or Teresopolis. Just go to Galeao airport, rent the car from there and when leaving airport, you'll be on Linha Vermelha. Simple and not too much hassle.

What ever you decide to do, remember that there is something called "lei seca" which means no drinking and driving. Punishments are rather severe.

And you must wear shoes not sandals otherwise you'll get a fine.
Also need to have your original driver's licence with you and not a copy.

[Jay Rollin]

Friday afternoon1.79 at the airport, 2.12 at the exchange shops, 2.31 at the ATM's and I'll let you know what Help is tonight.

[Acenva]

Could exec talent, or any other on the ground forum member please find out what rate help is giving on the exchange off us dollars.

The rate help gave me on Wednesday was 1.9R per USD.... Atm was 2.16R plus conversion and convience fees. Got Thursday morning from vender 2.10R

Just landed back this morning to the foggy atlanta..

Ace