Kenya Politics

[SceticoBlu]

My girl from Mombasa says everyting is quiet up to now. She worries about the upcoming elections but has not seen any riots or violence so far.

I booked Nairobi from next week to the end of the month.

[Tiger 888]

Well said. I would want to know about machete welding killers roaming the country before I spend $ to get there, and spend $$ to get the hell out of there!

I still am wondering why so many expats are spend thousands on dollars for 32 sq. Meter condos in LOS, when the king could die and chaos break out.

It will probably be a good time to buy after the chaos broke out and everyone heads out.

[Naked Gunz]

I think it is just wise to alert mongerers, that there is something more than pussy in a country, that some countries might be at risk for foreigners in some period. Nothing to do with politics, but caused by politics, somehow.

Alerting of a possible natural event (flood or whatever) might suggest people to stay away, in case they are unaware of what goes on in some areas. Especially on local politic driven events which information are not always spread globally. Or wrongly spread. I was in BKK during some red / yellow "street discussions". The local mongering community was cooling down the alerts but pointing out where not to go. The global communication system was alerting NOT TO go to BKK.

Well said. I would want to know about machete welding killers roaming the country before I spend $ to get there, and spend $$ to get the hell out of there!

I still am wondering why so many expats are spend thousands on dollars for 32 sq. Meter condos in LOS, when the king could die and chaos break out.

[BionicMan]

Whose silly idea was it to make a forum topic about politics on a * mongering site.

/Sigh

I think it is just wise to alert mongerers, that there is something more than pussy in a country, that some countries might be at risk for foreigners in some period. Nothing to do with politics, but caused by politics, somehow.

Alerting of a possible natural event (flood or whatever) might suggest people to stay away, in case they are unaware of what goes on in some areas. Especially on local politic driven events which information are not always spread globally. Or wrongly spread. I was in BKK during some red / yellow "street discussions". The local mongering community was cooling down the alerts but pointing out where not to go. The global communication system was alerting NOT TO go to BKK.

[Globo]

It seems like not much is happening, in spite the nearly election. Anybody with news an insight and if the situation is becoming a security risk for travellers. Any thoughts about how it will affect the mongers?

Just back from Kenya and there is certainly tension in the air. Most people don't want any trouble but know there will be. Most people I spoke to were making arrangements to avoid travel and work for the week around the election. Most foreigners were also planning to travel home for a week or two as well. The tourist industry is also suffering as booking are down across the board.

Last week there were run offs in one of the parties to decide their candidate and there was trouble. That was within one party.

[Naked Gunz]

It seems like not much is happening, in spite the nearly election. Anybody with news an insight and if the situation is becoming a security risk for travellers. Any thoughts about how it will affect the mongers?

A Luo chick I was dating said she is moving from her predominantly Kikuyu neighborhood as a precaution.

http://www.upi.com/Top_News/Special/...6501359487301/

[Kuma Pamper]

It seems like not much is happening, in spite the nearly election. Anybody with news an insight and if the situation is becoming a security risk for travellers. Any thoughts about how it will affect the mongers?

[Bide59]

Whose silly idea was it to make a forum topic about politics on a ***** mongering site.

/Sigh

Jim, given the historical happenings and political background in Kenya the idea might not be as "silly" as you assume it to be. Let's hope 2012 will be different. Bide59

[Jim01]

Whose silly idea was it to make a forum topic about politics on a ***** mongering site.

/Sigh

[August 1970]

COMMENTARY

WHAT OTHERS SAY: Don’t give up, Tusker beer may yet save this country

Story by CHARLES ONYANGO-OBBO

Publication Date: 2/14/2008
I AM A TOTALLY OBSESSED motorsport fan, so I was devastated by the cancellation of this year’s [Paris]-Dakar Rally following the murder of four French tourists in Mauritania on December 24.

Eight of the rally’s 15 stages were due to pass through Mauritania.

Despite my fanaticism, I am not blind to the subscript of the appeal of the Dakar Rally. The international audience loves the sight of the mean cars zooming through villages with grass thatched huts, and half naked “natives” sometimes watching apprehensively from behind ant hills and bushes.

It would seem that Africa has lost in the area where most of the rest of the world just couldn’t compete against us: in offering a touch of the primitive, and lots of the exotic.

It is that bad.

In many ways, Kenya’s post-election frenzy of violence is equivalent to Africa losing the Dakar Rally. Kenya, to many, had come to be viewed as “immune” to the worst forms of failure that had visited many African countries.

The mayhem of recent weeks has changed all that, and spawned a wave of revisionism. An article in The Times by Ben MacIntyre is typical: “Our fatally rose-tinted view of Kenya: The post-election disaster was sadly predictable”.

“Just as [the West] tends to view so much of Africa through dark glasses, as a place of violence and corruption, so Kenya has too often been seen through rose-tinted spectacles, as the African exception, a bright spot on the dark continent.”

It was a flawed view, argues MacIntyre. “Today, far too late, [British Prime Minister] Gordon Brown wags his fingers at Kenya’s leaders for failing to live up to our expectations,” he writes, “but it takes a rare British politician to see the reality behind the wishful thinking” .

Then he serves up the punchline: “[Winston] Churchill was one such. Back in 1907, while admiring the climate, he noted that the question of ethnic tensions in Kenya was one of a herd of rhinoceros — awkward, thick-skinned and horned, with a short sight and an evil temper, and a tendency to rush blindly upwind on any alarm.”

So, concludes MacIntyre, “The Kenyan rhinoceros is now on the rampage with tragic consequences, and we should have seen it coming”.

Reflecting on the same gloomy view, Vitalis Oduor, a kiosk owner in Kibera who fled after it was robbed and burnt down, told The Independent’s correspondent in Nairobi: “We used to say ‘Kenya hakuna matata’ (Kenya no problem). Right now, there is a lot of matata”.

One person who doesn’t approve of the West wagging fingers at Kenya politicians is Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi.

HE TOLD THE GUARDIAN IN AN EXCLUSIVE interview: “The threat of Western sanctions as a response to the current crisis is very, very misguided,” he said. “If it is presumed that the Kenyans will democratise in order to eat the peanuts of development assistance from the European Union, for example, it would be a mistake”.

It is not just Zenawi’s colourful imagery that is striking. His statement, actually, implies that Kenya has not democratised. Still, I can only think of a few African leaders who are capable of similar flowery turn of phrase. Uganda’s President Yoweri Museveni is definitely one of them.

When he was being threatened with loss of donor aid over his lousy democratic record, he told Parliament that aid that was offered with unpleasant conditionalities was like “giving a hungry man food and asking him to eat in a latrine”.

Not everyone loses faith as quickly as MacIntyre. From his base in the Rift Valley, Kenya author Aidan Hartley (he of The Zanzibar Chest fame) and a columnist for The Spectator magazine in the UK, wrote, this time in the New York Times:

“Still, and despite all the talk of another Rwanda, I think Kenya will pull back from the brink. This is mainly thanks to the basic decency of ordinary Kenyans — whose priorities are to work hard, educate their children, fear God, and enjoy a few Tusker beers.”

He explains why he thinks everything went so terribly wrong at elections:

“Kenyan democracy has failed because ordinary people were encouraged to believe that the process in, and of itself, could bring change. So Kenya’s leaders — and often international observers — interpret democracy simply in terms of the ceremony of multiparty elections. Polls bestow legitimacy on politicians to pillage for five years until the next depressing cycle begins.

“In the campaign rallies I attended, I heard no debate about policies, despite the country’s immense health, education, crime and poverty problems. The Big Men arrived by helicopter to address the voters in slums and forest clearings.

‘‘When they spoke English for the Western news media’s benefit, they talked of human rights and democracy.

But when they switched to local languages, it was pure venom and ethnic chauvinism.

‘‘Praise-singers kowtowed to the candidates, who dozed, talked on their mobile phones, and then waddled back to their helicopters, which blew dust into the faces of the poor on takeoff.”

A Tusker, anyone?

[Denis1960]

Thanks Mukio, please carry on!

[August 1970]

OK let me take this opportunity to express my opinions about the political; situation in Kenya.

The crisis seems to have divided Kenyans into two kinds.

1) The Modernists. These are westernised and progressive thinkers who typically live at least a middleclass life in cities. Many of them will think, speak and dream in English and also intermarry with other tribes. These people would tend to identify as Kenyans (or Africans) first and their tribal origins last. These are they who care about Kenyas image abroad.

2) The Traditionalists who typically live in the rural areas and are usally poor and think, speak and dream in their native language. These would normally identify themselves by their tribe first. Being Kenyan is the last and least important identity for them.

Virtually all the conflict is being perpetrated by the traditionalists who dont give a damn about the bad image Kenya gains amongst the international community. The catalyist being ODM's politicians and their Majimbo promises. These are people who feel cheated by the Kibaki governments capitalist outlook that naturally favours the few (westernised) over the many but results in a perceprion of economic prosperity in the eyes if the capitalist international community. It would seem Raila's communist background resonated well with these traditionalists since after all, in traditional African communities, sharing was a common practice. Good examples are the extended family networks which kept societies stable.

It seems the solution involves compromise. This could involve a government totally different from the sort seen in Capitalist Europe and America. This Government would have a rotating Presidency with limited powers. Each province having a Govenor who then acts as President for one year (a bit like the european union model).The govenor would naturally be elected by the province he repesents. In this way, the preception that the big tribes are ruling over the small tribes and taking the good meat from their plates will be diminished. What do you think?

Kenyan society is much more complex than that. For example, KRA is reputedly 90% Kikuyu. The going lingo there will be kikuyu inspite of the fact that these kikuyus are university educated and live repectable middleclass lives. There are many wealthy, progressive and educated Kenyans who take pride in their ethnic origins as it gives them a unique sense of identity in much the same way as the Europeans feel for their French, german, Italian and other languages and cultures.

Also not all 'traditionalists' are warlike. The Akamba in Ukambani have so far been quite peaceful towards other tribes inspite of Kalonzo musyoka's defeat. The Samburu and Turkanas of the rift valley have refused to get involved in the kalejin backlash towards kikuyus in the rift valley. Also note the Boranas and others from northeastern province are also not getting involved in the violence.

However there are a number of kenyans who think like the Americans in that they identify themselves by their country (and not tribal origin) and have a preference to speak English instead of their tribal language or even Kiswahili. Generally it can be argued that these kind of kenyans, due to their 'english' lifestyles are not as well placed to control the traditionalists ( both wealthy and poor) unless they can gather support of the G8 members.

So concering the violence I think the issue here is more like lazy and unproductive people ( as opposed to traditionalists) who think tribally are looking to reap where they have not sown, together with wrecklessly ambitious politicians are the real culprits. It is instrutive that the three major tribes involved each had or hoped to have a President i.e Kikuyus ( Jomo Kenyatta and now Mwai Kibaki), Kalenjins ( Daniel arap Moi) and Luos ( Raila Odinga...or so they hoped). It is also instructive that virtually all the violence is occuring in ODM strongholds of the rift valley ( kalenjin territory) and western province ( Luo territory). They are all bad losers!
So because of that we now need outside help, so it seems the stage is now set for the 'American' style Kenyans to do something.

[Mukio]

My view on Kenyan politics centers around the sense of ethnic nationalism that exists among the various Kenyan tribes. This is also replicated in almost all African countries that have several tribes in one country.

First, from experiences all over the world and all through history, nations are created through war and not peace. Multi-tribal nations are created when one tribe defeats another and the defeated tribe accepts defeat. More importantly, the defeated tribe agrees to be assimilated into the ways and lives of the conquering tribe.

The Britain is one because the English subdued the Scottish and the Welsh and assimilated them into their political system.

The Chinese have a long history in Mongolia and have dominated them for a long time ever since the great Mongolian Genghis Khan passed away.

Same applies to almost every multilingual nation - there must be a dominant tribe which assimilates the others. And it is this domination that causes wars and conflicts. All the world wars were about Germany, Russia, France etc seeking domination. And these are nations and peoples that have known each other for over 500 years.

In Africa however, conflicts between tribes are just beginning to appear. The exception is South Africa where Shaka Zulu made sure no tribe could dare challenge the Zulu even before the white man arrived. As it stands today, Zulu is spoken everywhere in SA -even by other tribes such as the Xhosa and as far away as in Zimbabwe and Botswana. All these because the Zulu dominated.

In most African countries however, tribes only begun to wrestle after the white man left.

In Kenya for example, the Kikuyu and the Luo did not even know of each others existence 100 years ago. Only a handful Kikuyu had set sight on a Luo and vice versa because the militarised Maasais and Nandis were roaming the Rift Valley thus keeping them apart.

So what is happening now is the natural, albeit delayed, seek for dominance.

In Kenya, there are 5 main tribes comprising 70% of the total population ie Kikuyu (22%), Luhya (14%), Kalenjin (11%), Kamba (11%) and Luo (11%).

In terms of voting patterns however, real power has in the past been within three voting blocks ie the GEMA, Kamatusa and Luo ethnic blocks.

GEMA (Kikuyu, Embu, Meru) comprises 29%, Kamatusa (Kalenjin, Maasai, Turkana, Samburu (14%), and the Luo (11%),

The Luhya though being the second largest tribe have never voted as a single block. They therefore have never been at the front of any tribal alliance - they are always at number 2 or 3. The same applies to the Kamba although this is changing.

Looking at history, whenever any 2 of these 3 large voting blocks unite, they are able to capture power by convincing the majority of the remaining Luhya and Kamba to join their side.

Cases in point are the 1963 independence elections when the GEMA and Luo blocks voted as one and defeated the Kamatusa block.

In 1966, Mzee Jomo Kenyatta, the leader of the GEMA alliance ditched the Luo led by Jaramogi and appointed Daniel Moi, a Kalenjin (part of the Kamatusa) , as his vice-president. The emerging GEMA-Kamatusa alliance made sure the Luo could not challenge for power.

When Moi took over as President, his sole strategy for keeping power was to keep the GEMA and Luo separate so that they could not form another alliance. During his 24 year rule, there was a three way split with each large ethnic block voting for their own. The Kamatusa voted for their own in 1992 and 1997. So did the GEMA and the Luo.

By using the power of incumbency, the Kamatusa stayed in power by convincing large enough voters from the Kamba and Luhya communities.

in 2002, the GEMA formed an alliance with the Luo once more and defeated the Kamatusa. This was how Kibaki ascended to power since this alliance convinced large enough voters from the Kamba and the Luhya.

In 2005, the Kamatusa and the Luo formed an alliance against the draft constitution and defeated the GEMA during the referendum by rallyin the Kamba and Luhya to their side.

In the recent 2007 elections saw a repeat of the referendum with a Luo-Kamatusa alliance against the GEMA.

This time however, the Kamba decided to strike it out on their own for the first time in recent history. They decided not to support neither the GEMA nor the Luo-Kamatusa alliance but rather back Kalonzo, a fellow Kamba.

The result was that the GEMA voting block was roughy equal to the Luo-Kamatusa alliance. That was why these elections were so close.

As it stands now, the Kamba and the GEMA have formed a new alliance to counter the Luo-Kamatusa. The Kamba and the GEMA are cousin tribes with similar languages and traditions. The major difference between the two is that the Kamba are derided by the GEMA as cowards for having supported the colonialists while the GEMA were fighting in the bush. The Kamba were then employed as part of the British Army to defeat the Mau Mau rebellion led by the GEMA.

The GEMA-Kamba alliance is now led by Kibaki, a GEMA, as President while Kalonzo, a Kamba is his vice President. Going forward, most analysts, myself included, expect to see this alliance fronting Kalonzo for President in the next elections.

The GEMA have become very aware, though belatedly, that they cannot afford to have one of their own contesting for elections next time round. This is due to the fact that most of the smaller tribes are too aware of GEMA dominance of the economy and are loath to vote for another GEMA as President. By having a Kamba at the head of the alliance, the GEMA hope to achieve two things at a go ie make sure power does not go to their Luo or Kamatusa rivals as well as reduce the perception tha the GEMA cannot vote for any other tribe.

I hope this sheds light on the sense of ethinc nationalism present in multi-tribal Kenya and its impact on politics.

Next time i will comment on my thoughts as to why this ethnic nationalism has turned bloody while in the past it was not - at least not this to the scale we are seeing now.

[Vahaza Be]

Spoken like a true modernist ;)
Compromise and coalitions based on something other than ethnic identity is the only hope.

[Admin]

Thread Starter.