Crime in Colombia

[Tungurahua]

Originally posted in the Medellin forum, for future reference this information properly belongs on the Crime In Colombia board. For those interested in comparing homicide rates of Colombian cities to US cities I found the FBI had the best and most current information.

http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/cius2006/offe..._homicide.html

The original post reads:

For the last two years I have been listening to dozens of travellers say "Colombia is safe!" All I have to say is: %&*Ç@ off. Mirroring the thoughts of other board members I too am weary of individuals trying to downplay the risks of Colombia. Yes today is better compared to what it was but the country's murder rate is still very high -- never mind all the other crime stats.

There is one thing I find lacking on the ISG-Colombia forum(s). There is a lot of chatter about how dangerous Colombia is -- individual cities like Cali, Bogota, Medellin, the countryside, etc. -- but I have yet to find a hard reference to what individuals may be familiar with. Give me context! How dangerous is dangerous? What are the specifics? Lonely Planet writes "murders are down 40%." So does that mean in 2002 there were ten people murdered, in 2007 only six? Hardly. Generic statements like this are misleading and annoying.

On the ISG-Rio Crime & Safety board I once broke down the numbers to prove what country was more dangerous, Brazil or the US. Time to do the same thing for Colombia and the US. Here are the official numbers for Colombia:

Countrywide murders 2007: 15,400 (citizens only, not including combat deaths). Population 44,000,000 makes for 35 murders per 100,000.
Countrywide murders 2006: 17,206
Countrywide murders 2005: 17,726.
Countrywide murders 2003: 23,013
Countrywide murders 2002: 28,837

The numbers for the United States are:

Countrywide murders/manslaughters 2006: 17,034. Population 301,000,000 makes for 5.7 murders per 100,000.
Countrywide murders/manslaughters 2005: 16,900

First of all I trust the US numbers more than I do Colombia's. Each year in Colombia I think there is an additional few thousand individuals who are slaughtered, shot, macheted, gutted, etc., then thrown into open pits like road kill -- and they never make the official police counts. But let us use what we have.

Colombia has 14.6% of the US population yet has 90.4% of its murders.

Put another way, Colombia has 1/7 of the US population but 6x the murder rate.

If we extrapolated Colombia to have an equal US population of 301,000,000 its murder rate at 35 per 100,000 would be the equivalent of 105,350 individuals per year (301,000,000 * 35 / 100,000 = x, x = 105350).

This is "safe" Colombia in 2008.

How can I justify being here? It is simple: half lunacy, half rationality. In 2006 while in Ecuador I watched Uribe's re-election, then while travelling other S. American countries over the course of two years I waited for confirmation of the improving trend. I got it. Uribe has two more years to go. While I would like to be optimistic about Colombia's future I am wary of Latin American politics: two steps forward, three steps back. Is Colombia's next president going to continue improvements? Is it different for Colombia this time around? I don't know. So I am sliding into Colombia on the tail end of Uribe's terms to take a look at the country.

For interest the latest city specific numbers I can find are: Bogotá's kill rate is 23 per 100,000. Cartagena is 22 per 100,000 (275 murders in 2006 using population 1,240,000). Medellin 29 per 100,000 (2007 article). Cali 65 per 100,000 (year unknown).

[Ricker]

Ricker,

First of all, what is "layed? "

Second, this is a mongering forum, how difficult would it be to "concentrate" on getting "layed" when the majority of the forum is about P4P? Cash talks, Bulls--t walks. You give the paisa money and then screw, or get screwed.

Finally, I think its a fairly valid explanation on why crime has declined in NYC. Most people assume Giuliani cleaned up the city. Freakonomics only attempts to bring an alternative view.

Relax dude. I think I know what this board is about, since maybe I've been posting on it long before you had any clue what a Paisa might be.

If you enjoy posting about Giuliani and Freakonomics in NYC, have at it.

[Tungurahua]

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationwo...,4227749.story

Nelly Avila Moreno, a notoriously brutal commander, said she turned herself in because of army pressure and a $900,000 price on her head that made her fear her own troops.

... She said the leftist group was "crumbling" and she had not had any direct communication with the top FARC leadership in two years.

... Moreno's surrender Sunday in southern Antioquia state brings to six the number of commanders who have surrendered, been killed or been captured in the last year.

... In March, two members of the seven-person FARC secretariat, known by their aliases Raul Reyes and Ivan Rios, were killed. Reyes died in a Colombian raid in Ecuador, and Rios was shot to death in southwestern Colombia by his bodyguard, who later sought a $2.5-million reward.

... Colombian officials say 1,181 rebels have turned themselves in this year for "reinsertion" into Colombian society, an 8% increase from the 1,098 who surrendered over the same period last year.

[Tungurahua]

http://edition.cnn.com/2008/world/am...4/farc.leader/

may 25, 2008 -- updated 2317 gmt

(cnn) -- the leader of colombia's largest leftist rebel group has died, a senior commander of the revolutionary armed forces of colombia said sunday.

pedro antonio marin, also known as manuel marulanda velez, died in the arms of his companion, senior farc rebel commander timoleon jimenez said in a taped speech.

marulanda died march 26 of a heart attack in a forested hideout, said jimenez, also known as timochenko.

"we say goodbye physically, in the name of thousands of farc guerrillas," jimenez said. "a great leader has marched away."

jimenez said marulanda, 74, was replaced by alfonso cano, a longtime ideologue for the group.

marulanda joined farc -- the oldest and most resilient insurgent group in latin america -- in the 1940s. a marxist devotee, he was feared by some but viewed as a revolutionary leader by rebels, who revered him. he promised equality in poor agricultural regions, gaining many farc adherents.

while widely anticipated, marulanda's death is a huge blow for farc, which has recently lost commanders including raul reyes and ivan rios, both killed in military operations. chief financier simon trinidad is serving a 60-year sentence in a u.s. prison after being convicted of conspiracy to take three u.s. military contractors hostage in 2003.

juan manuel santos, colombian defense minister, hinted to a reporter saturday that the government believed marulanda dead. "the information that we have is that he has gone already," he told a reporter from semana magazine.

santos said that the colombian military had bombed three areas where marulanda -- also known as "tirofijo" and "sure shot" -- was believed to be around the time of his death but that the fighting was not believed to have killed him.

colombian president alvaro uribe, speaking at a town hall-style meeting, said his government is creating a reward fund of up to $100 million for rebel soldiers who leave farc.

he also said he's working on a way to grant former rebels what he called "conditional freedom" -- suggesting that they'd receive some form of amnesty for criminal acts.

the president said his government has been contacted by farc members who apparently want to leave the group but fear for their safety.

he did not say whether the fighters were high-level or rank-and-file members, but said they had expressed a willingness to release some of the hundreds of hostages that farc is believed to be holding in the jungles along the border of colombia and ecuador.

established as the military wing of the colombian communist party in 1964, farc is colombia's oldest, largest and best-equipped marxist rebel group, according to the u.s. department of state. several nations, including the united states, classify it as a terrorist group. farc has been embroiled in a complex guerilla conflict with the colombian government and right-wing paramilitary groups working in tandem with the government.

the group has defended the taking of hostages, including ailing former presidential candidate ingrid betancourt, as a legitimate technique in the conflict, although nations including the united states consider it a terrorist organization.

as the group's leader, marulanda was the ultimate decision maker who decided to approve the farc's expanded efforts into cocaine trafficking, according to the u.s. state department.

[Tungurahua]

http://news.scotsman.com/world/Farc3...-to.4099201.jp

Published Date: 20 May 2008
By Jeremy McDermott in Medellin

ONE of the Colombia's most renowned rebel fighters, and the guerrillas' senior female commander, has surrendered in yet another victory for the United States-backed war policy of president Alvaro Uribe.

"We have been after this woman for a long time," said Juan Manuel Santos, the defence minister, "but she always gave us the slip."

Half-starved and wounded, Nelly Avila Moreno, who was better known by her guerrilla alias, "Karina", surrendered to the secret police, the DAS, ending one of the legends of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (Farc). Accompanying her was her bodyguard and lover known only by his alias of Michin.

"To become a Farc leader you have to be utterly ruthless and vicious, even more so if you are a woman," said an army intelligence source. "Karina was both."

A glance at Karina shows why she was known as a female "Rambo" in the Farc and a role model for the women that make up more than 30 per cent of the supposedly Marxist guerrilla army. She has lost the sight of one eye and has scars on her face from combat. She also has lost a breast and has bullet wounds along an arm.

Yet she gave far worse than she got. She was wanted for a battery of charges, among them murder, extortion and kidnapping.

She has been linked to a series of massacres in the banana-growing region of Uraba, near the Caribbean Coast, close to where she was born. Many businessmen and ranchers suffered extortion, kidnapping and murder at her hands.

Yet by negotiating her surrender under the government amnesty legislation known as the Peace and Justice Law, she can be sentenced only to a maximum of eight years in prison.

She came to public attention during the peace process between the Farc and the former president, Andres Pastrana, who granted the rebels a 16,000sq mile safe haven in the south of the country as a venue for peace talks.

During a ceremony in the safe haven, attended by thousands of rebels, Karina addressed the rows of uniformed and heavily armed guerrillas – the proof that women in the Farc had acquired the fame of being even more vicious fighters than their male counterparts.

She became a priority target for the authorities in June 2002 after the town of Arboleda-Pensilvania in the province of Caldas was attacked by a rebel column. They killed 13 policemen along with four civilians, including one woman burned alive for being married to a policeman. It was then that Oxford-educated president Uribe called upon his security forces to capture or kill Karina and put a £400,000 bounty on her head.

The guerrilla commander, with more than 20 years in rebel ranks, was known to be equally without pity on her own troops. Intelligence sources believe that she personally executed a dozen Farc members accused of being informers or breaking the revolutionary rule book.

Karina, 45, commanded the Farc's 47th Front which, at the height of its power, had 350 members operating in and around the northern province of Antioquia, the capital of which, Medellin, is where she now sits in a police cell, awaiting her fate.

Parts of her criminal empire sit astride drugs and arms smuggling routes, ensuring that she was never short of money to carry out operations.

However over the last eight months, the US-trained and equipped army has launched a series of offensives against the Farc in Antioquia and the surrounding provinces, putting the guerrillas on the defensive and forcing them to abandon camps and move on to a permanently mobile footing. This meant that guerrillas were tired, often hungry and in frequent combat with the military, leading to mass desertions, which gave the army more information to concentrate their operations.

Karina came under greater pressure in March, after her boss, Ivan Rios, a member of the Farc's ruling seven-man body, the Secretariat, was murdered by one of his bodyguards.

The bodyguard, alias "Rojas", cut off Rios's hand as proof of his act and turned himself in to the authorities, where he promptly claimed and later received, a reward for more than £500,000.

The Farc has had a year of setbacks. On 1 March, a raid by the Colombian police and armed forces killed the Farc's second-in-command, Luis Edgar Devia Silva, also known as Raul Reyes.

He was the most senior Farc leader killed by the Colombian government in nearly 40 years of war. He was also the first member of the Farc's leadership council to be killed in combat.

[Halcyon901]

So what? I think you need to forget about all that nonsense and concentrate on getting layed.

Ricker,

First of all, what is "layed? "

Second, this is a mongering forum, how difficult would it be to "concentrate" on getting "layed" when the majority of the forum is about P4P? Cash talks, Bulls--t walks. You give the paisa money and then screw, or get screwed.

Finally, I think its a fairly valid explanation on why crime has declined in NYC. Most people assume Giuliani cleaned up the city. Freakonomics only attempts to bring an alternative view.

[Rock Harders]

Mongers,

I do not think anyone can reasonably argue that crime rates have not plummeted in Medellin (and Colombia in general, but not as signficantly in other areas) over the past five years. Dozens of locals in Medellin told me (in their native tongue) that just three or four years ago, it was not safe to go out at night, even in areas that now seem inoccuous such as Parque Lleras and the rest of Poblado. Also, I was informed that the road between the airport in Rio Negro and Medellin city was an extremely dangerous route and the scene of numerous attacks by criminals on passing vehicles. In addition, the surrounding areas of Antioquia were once prime time guerrilla country until the last several years. Uribe has cleaned up Medellin and many parts of Colombia big-time, the economy is booming and many people who previously had nothing better to do than involve themselves in crime now have more economic opportunities. However, this is Colombia. Life is cheap here, the socio-economic divide is gargantuan, and there are desperate wolves around who will take a piece of your ass if you let yourself be the lamb. Although probably the safest (and best) city in Colombia at this point, Medellin is not Disneyland (its not Buenos Aires either, which is the safest big-time city in Latin America) and you've got to watch your ass there.

Suerte,

Rock Harders

EDITOR'S NOTE: I would suggest that the author or another Forum Member consider posting a link to this report in the Reports of Distinction thread. Please Click Here for more information.

[Dirty Willy]

[b] Lonely Planet writes "murders are down 40%." So does that mean in 2002 there were ten people murdered, in 2007 only six? Hardly. Generic statements like this are misleading and annoying.

EDITOR'S NOTE: I would suggest that the author or another Forum Member consider posting a link to this report in the Reports of Distinction thread. Please Click Here for more information.

Ok Mr. 'I'm going to run statistics until everyone else pukes all over the floor'

You got this one from me and I'm going to have to say that you're incorrect.

It's not a misleading statement precisely because the number was so high to begin with. Your example of murders declining from 10 to 6 and then claiming a decline of 40% would be a misleading statistic. It wouldn't really be very meaningful because the number is so small to begin with.

Here's a good case of a misleading statistic. Peaceful Happy Valley (a made up place) with 100, 000 residents had 1 murder from 1985-1994, and then 3 murders from 1995-2004 without any meaningful change in population. If you would say that their murder rate tripled in that ten year period, that would definitely be a misleading statistic, because you are giving the impression that PH Valley is a really dangerous place, or at least much more dangerous than it used to be, but then again relative changes are actually pretty meaningless, because the number is so small to begin with.

Because Columbia's murder rate was so high to begin with, the 40% decline is impressive. It's definitely safer there, even if it's not safe, and that's the point of the number.

Also, I'm one of those travellers you mention who tried convincing you to go to Columbia and you curse me! ? ! Come on Tung, you should be thanking me. You sound like you're having fun and if you weren't in Columbia now, you'd be back home looking for work. Now that (I'd make that all caps if it were allowed) is something to be afraid of!

Have fun you crazy MF, as I, along with many others, will continue to live vicariously through you.

[Ricker]

Hey everybody. I kind of thought the previous posts were interesting. Have any of you guys heard of Freakonomics? According to the authors, they found a statisticl correlation between declining crime rates and abortion. Their primary focus was on crime stats in New York, between the 80s and late 90s. Now, I don't have the precise numbers with me, but here is their explanation.

Roe v. Wade legalized abortion, I believe, in 1972. Crime is usually associated with the lower socio-economic group (note: I am not saying "race"). Before Roe v. Wade, it was fairly expensive to have an abortion. After Roe v. Wade, it became more widely available, and cheaper. Now, the group of women, who couldn't afford it, can now abort (I know this sounds horrible) unwanted children. Consequently, this led to a reduction of the criminal pool. If you look at stats, crime began to decline in the early 90s (Giuliani era), approximately the age at which these aborted would be 18.

I know I'm missing a lot, so I truly suggest you guys read Freakonomics. Maybe there's correlation betweeen the declining murder rates in Colombia and a decline of the criminal pool. Flame away!

So what? I think you need to forget about all that nonsense and concentrate on getting layed.

[Ccu2401]

sorry - i put in the incorrect value previously for colombia. apologies

only found number of homicides per 100,000 persons for 2004

--------2004 ------
city rate
new york city 7.0
los angeles 13.4
chicago 15.5
houston 13.3
philadelphia 22.2
phoenix 14.1
san antonio 7.6
san diego 4.8
dallas 20.2
san jose 2.6
san francisco 11.6
seattle 4.3

colombia(2004) 44.6 <--- still higher than any major us city!

these are just the homicide rates for 2004 per 100,000 population - these don't include other violent crimes such as [CodeWord123], robber or assault nor does it include burroughs or surrounding cities. for example i live in a small suburban town north of dallas and my city is significantly less than dallas proper.
below is the link to this info:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/crime_...es#large_cities

enjoy,

ccu2401

[AddictedToWomen]

Only found Number of Homicides per 100,000 persons for 2004

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crime_i...s#Large_cities

Enjoy,

ccu2401

Thanks for the link. The table doesn't seem to include what's in the graph: Baltimore, Detroit, and DC have rates comparable to Colombia.

[Ccu2401]

only found number of homicides per 100,000 persons for 2004
--------2004 ------
city rate
new york city 7.0
los angeles 13.4
chicago 15.5
houston 13.3
philadelphia 22.2
phoenix 14.1
san antonio 7.6
san diego 4.8
dallas 20.2
san jose 2.6
san francisco 11.6
seattle 4.3

colombia(2004) 7.5

these are just the homicide rates for 2004 - these don't include other violent crimes such as [CodeWord123], robber or assault nor does it include burroughs or surrounding cities. for example i live in a small suburban town north of dallas and my city is significantly less than dallas proper.
below is the link to this info:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/crime_i...s#large_cities

enjoy,

ccu2401

[Halcyon901]

Hey everybody. I kind of thought the previous posts were interesting. Have any of you guys heard of Freakonomics? According to the authors, they found a statisticl correlation between declining crime rates and abortion. Their primary focus was on crime stats in New York, between the 80s and late 90s. Now, I don't have the precise numbers with me, but here is their explanation.

Roe v. Wade legalized abortion, I believe, in 1972. Crime is usually associated with the lower socio-economic group (note: I am not saying "race"). Before Roe v. Wade, it was fairly expensive to have an abortion. After Roe v. Wade, it became more widely available, and cheaper. Now, the group of women, who couldn't afford it, can now abort (I know this sounds horrible) unwanted children. Consequently, this led to a reduction of the criminal pool. If you look at stats, crime began to decline in the early 90s (Giuliani era), approximately the age at which these aborted would be 18.

I know I'm missing a lot, so I truly suggest you guys read Freakonomics. Maybe there's correlation betweeen the declining murder rates in Colombia and a decline of the criminal pool. Flame away!

[AddictedToWomen]

Taking up Tung's challenge below are the murder rates/100,000 compared between Colombia and the US from 1990 up to the latest 2007. I removed the TABS hoping it would display consistently across various PCs and Browsers. Displays best with a non-proportional typeface like Courier New.

I've been to Colombia 5-6 times. I try and travel in groups. When I am by myself I alway am very aware of my surroundings and like Tung I use my peripheral vision. To add validity, below the stats is the link to the reference page.

1990s 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
Colombia 70.0 79.0 78.0 76.0 71.0 66.0 67.8 63.3 56.6 58.6
US 9.4 9.8 9.3 9.5 9.0 8.22 7.41 6.80 6.3 5.7

2000s 2000 2001 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Colombia 62.7 64.6 65.8 51.8 44.6 39.3 37.3
US 7.5 7.6 7.6 7.7 7.5 5.9

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of..._homicide_rate

But I wonder what the murder rate would be in the US if we had been living with 50 years of a Civil War? Even with these dramatic number differences I'm still visiting in July.

Happy Mongering

Any idea what the rates are for NYC and DC?

[Sandman0011]

If you took the stats from cities like Washington DC, New Orleans, Detroit and LA against the Colombian numbers!

Taking up Tung's challenge below are the murder rates/100,000 compared between Colombia and the US from 1990 up to the latest 2007. I removed the TABS hoping it would display consistently across various PCs and Browsers. Displays best with a non-proportional typeface like Courier New.

I've been to Colombia 5-6 times. I try and travel in groups. When I am by myself I alway am very aware of my surroundings and like Tung I use my peripheral vision. To add validity, below the stats is the link to the reference page.

1990s 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
Colombia 70.0 79.0 78.0 76.0 71.0 66.0 67.8 63.3 56.6 58.6
US 9.4 9.8 9.3 9.5 9.0 8.22 7.41 6.80 6.3 5.7

2000s 2000 2001 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Colombia 62.7 64.6 65.8 51.8 44.6 39.3 37.3
US 7.5 7.6 7.6 7.7 7.5 5.9

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of..._homicide_rate

But I wonder what the murder rate would be in the US if we had been living with 50 years of a Civil War? Even with these dramatic number differences I'm still visiting in July.

Happy Mongering