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  1. #377

    Paranoia strikes deep, into your life it will creep...

    omg--i never thought of it that way! what'll we do? what'll we do???

    relax gt, the crimea is not the beginning of russian expansion, it is the end.


    by "never" i did not mean never in history, but there was no current threat to russian security.
    from your perspective, it may seem as if here was no threat, but for putin, there was a very real threat to russian security. russia is essentially a land-locked country, the only warm water port they have is savastopol. yanokovich was putin's man, he was hand-picked by putin to be the president of the ukraine. as long as yanokovich was in control of the ukraine, putin could be sure that the crimea would be within his control. but when yanokovich was kicked out, everything changed. putin could not allow savastopol and the crimea to fall into the hands of the west.

    putin will go no further than the crimea, partly because he understands that russia will have its hands full digesting its conquest, but mainly because he understands that if he does, everything will be up for grabs and he could lose the very thing he values most: the crimea.


    europe couldn't really afford to bail itself out (greece, spain, et al) and cannot really afford to prop up a wounded ukraine, but they and a heavily mortgaged us will have to anyway.
    it's true, the ukraine is a mess. europe can't afford to take on all the responsibility of bailing them out. it's different for the u.s., if we need more money, we can just print it. but money is the least of the worries, the ukraine is so divided right now, it seems to be almost ungovernable and it's the average person who will suffer the most.


    russia will end up confirep001ing or otherwise stealing western corporate investment.
    putin is not stupid, and he is not a hot-head. he understands the interdepencies of the modern day world. if he nationalizes foreign assets in russia, that will be the end of foreign investment. putin wants to present russia to the world as a modern nation, that's what sochi was all about. he does not want to take it back 40 years into the cold war.

    so far, the sanctions have been very high level and very limited. i don't think john boehner gives a toot if he ever gets to visit russia and i doubt if john mccaen has millions of dollars invested in moscow real estate. there will be a lot of tit-for-tat, and then everyone will settle into some kind of workable solution.


    so, buck up gt, all is not lost. you may not find as many russian women looking to hook up with western men as you had hoped, but there should be plenty of ukrainian ones. and if you look on the bright side, your russian visa will now get you into the crimea!

  2. #376
    Quote Originally Posted by stravinsky  [View Original Post]
    possibly, but russia today is significantly more stable and secure under putin than it was under yeltsin.

    yes, putin's decision to annex the crimea will have a serious effect on the russian economy, but putin knew this going in, it was a calculated risk on his part and he is willing to pay the price. unfortunately, the russian people will also have to pay. if you're interested, the full text of putin's address of march 18, is posted on kremlin. ru, in russian and english. it's a fascinating insight into how he thinks.

    how will it effect "everyone else"?

    the early 90's were complete and total chaos in the fsu, with threats to security coming from everywhere, inside and out. without someone like putin to take control, russia would probably still be a mess.

    but i agree with you, probably the single most effective sanction the west could impose would be a total ban on the export of apple products to russia.
    by "never" i did not mean never in history, but there was no current threat to russian security.

    it will effect "everyone else" because sanctions will hurt everyone economically (although i still am in favour of significant sanction) and will harm the fragile global recovery. europe couldn't really afford to bail itself out (greece, spain, et al) and cannot really afford to prop up a wounded ukraine, but they and a heavily mortgaged us will have to anyway. russia will end up confirep001ing or otherwise stealing western corporate investment. and then there are security issues. this will put an end to cooperation on weapons destruction (which was winding down anyway, but not completed) , and syria and iran, which were tenuous projects at the best of times. and then there are future potential conflicts if the putin doctrine prevails: transdnister, eastern oblasts, territorial disputes in asian waters and not just by russia, this is a valuable doctrine for anyone (like china) to adopt when convenient. and russia's claim to the arctic, if they are not to be bound by international law or norms.

    if putin just wanted to secure the crimea, he could have done that politically with very little cost (have them agitate for a real referendum and greater autonomy until they were more aligned with russia than ukraine). the fact that he decided to do it militarily means two things: he wanted to kick sand in our faces (and having found that to be an enjoyable and pain-free experience he is bound to bully again) and he wanted to establish a principle that he back up any claim he has to a greater russia with the force of arms and no international regulation.

    other than that it is just a minor domestic issue that is really none of our concern.

  3. #375
    Quote Originally Posted by Gentleman Travel  [View Original Post]
    Authoritarianism does not necessarily translate into security and stability, just lack of opposition or protest.
    Possibly, but Russia today is significantly more stable and secure under Putin than it was under Yeltsin.

    Russia's actions are undermining its (and everyone else's) economic security and stability.
    Yes, Putin's decision to annex the Crimea will have a serious effect on the Russian economy, but Putin knew this going in, it was a calculated risk on his part and he is willing to pay the price. Unfortunately, the Russian people will also have to pay. If you're interested, the full text of Putin's address of March 18, is posted on kremlin. Ru, in Russian and English. It's a fascinating insight into how he thinks.

    How will it effect "everyone else"?

    There was never any threat to political security and stability in the first place, except from inside Russia itself.
    The early 90's were complete and total chaos in the FSU, with threats to security coming from everywhere, inside and out. Without someone like Putin to take control, Russia would probably still be a mess.

    But I agree with you, probably the single most effective sanction the West could impose would be a total ban on the export of Apple products to Russia.

  4. #374
    Quote Originally Posted by Stravinsky  [View Original Post]
    They are much more interested in security and stability than nebulous concepts like "Freedom".
    Authoritarianism does not necessarily translate into security and stability, just lack of opposition or protest.

    Russia's actions are undermining its (and everyone else's) economic security and stability.

    There was never any threat to political security and stability in the first place, except from inside Russia itself.

    They will be very happy to sacrifice their Jimmy Choo's and D&G for the benefit of the motherland.

    Now. If you're talking about giving up their iPhones, then that is cause for a Revolutsia!
    Really, I thought the Jimmy Choo's would be a step too far also!

    I was advocating to my government they should focus on a luxury goods import ban.

    It would affect only the upper classes, and remind them of the benefits of being "western".

  5. #373
    Quote Originally Posted by Gentleman Travel  [View Original Post]
    It depends how aware they are of the path the country is on.
    And what path would that be???

    Your position is well reasoned, but it's the reasoning of a Westerner. Nothing wrong with that, but if you truly want to understand what Russians will do, particularly Russian women, then you need to think like a Russian. They are much more interested in security and stability than nebulous concepts like "Freedom".

    Time will tell, but I don't think you will see any kind of mass exodus of Russian women to the West, for them it would be like jumping out of the frying pan and into the fire. They will be very happy to sacrifice their Jimmy Choo's and D&G for the benefit of the motherland.

    Now... if you're talking about giving up their iPhones, then that is cause for a Revolutsia!

  6. #372
    Quote Originally Posted by Stravinsky  [View Original Post]
    Can't imagine why anyone would want to leave Russia, they are sitting on top of the world right now.
    It depends how aware they are of the path the country is on.

    Sure, nationalists might be feeling pretty pumped just now, especially men. But young middle class women and even (especially) elitny have reason to worry. The rulers have tightened their fists and freedoms are eroding. Equally importantly, Russia has indulged in a series of expensive adventures the country cannot really afford (Olympics, Crimea and, frankly the whole basic rent-seeking economic structure). This means bad things for social services, education, medical care and exchange rates (for luxury goods).

    Women are more interested in bread & butter issues, and less enamored of macho rhetoric.

    Still, it would be hard for any Russian to see their country clearly now with the media so heavily controlled.

  7. #371
    Quote Originally Posted by Gentleman Travel  [View Original Post]
    I wonder if recent events will revive the desire of FSU women to mate with Western men in order to migrate to the West.
    Can't imagine why anyone would want to leave Russia, they are sitting on top of the world right now.

    Young women in the Ukraine may have more of an incentive to find a life outside of their home country, but the days of the "White God" are gone. It was fun while it lasted, but I think we will never again see the same confluence of events that ended the Soviet Union. At least not in our lifetime.

  8. #370

    Go West Young Woman?

    I wonder if recent events will revive the desire of FSU women to mate with Western men in order to migrate to the West.

    That seemed to be a strong motivator 10 years ago and more, but since then seemed to soften a lot, as women (especially Moscovites) realized that there was no place like home. Even if it was a pretty tough life for a young woman to survive and prosper in Moscow or Kiev, many girls believed that was where they wanted to live, for cultural and family reasons, and there was some trickle down of crumbs from the wealthy.

    But now surely girls in Ukraine (and possibly Russia also) must see how fragile their world is?

    That they live in dangerous kleptocracies where the autocrats are tightening their grip.

    And that personal and financial security cannot be found in Eastern Europe.

    So will they turn in droves to 'Russian Bride' and dating sites hunting Western men as a safe harbor?

    Is the 'white god factor' coming back?

    GT

  9. #369
    It is almost unbelievable how emotionally starved Russian girls are. It is incredible how just a little bit of attention and appreciation get to them.

  10. #368
    Quote Originally Posted by Stravinsky  [View Original Post]
    He is living the American dream, he's just doing it in Russia.
    Amen brother. He's not the ONLY one! .

  11. #367
    Quote Originally Posted by Jake993  [View Original Post]
    Hmmm, let me think. He has two gold medals, a hot wife but lives in Novosibirsk. Damn, that's a tough one. He can probably teach snow boarding for the rest of his life but since his Russian language skills are limited, he's going to have a difficult time getting a coaching job. I dunno man. I hope he's happy.
    Novosibirsk? Novosibirsk??? Now you are scaring me!

    Jake, Jake, Jake, my man, this is not 1954, this is 2014. There is brave new world out there; wake up, open your eyes and smell the coffee.

    Half the Russian Olympic hockey team plays for the NHL, which is probably why they lost to the U.S. team. A Russian Olympic athlete who earns 2 gold medals for the glory of the Fatherland does not live in Novosibirsk. He lives in his private apartment in Moscow, together with his Russian wife. He is awarded a position as a captain of industry, which accords him the social and financial status worthy of a Narodi Geroy. He has no need of Russian language skills because his good buddy Vladimir Vladimirovich already speaks English, as well as you or I.

    He is living the American dream, he's just doing it in Russia.

  12. #366
    Quote Originally Posted by Gentleman Travel  [View Original Post]
    Thank you Professor Stravinsky, for your scientific observations and analysis of the species 'Devuska ex-Ruskie'.
    GT,

    Good to hear from you! Strictly speaking I would classify the "Devushka ex Russkii" as a genus, with the "Devushka ex Sovietskii" as more of a species of that genus. Both of which are of the family "Devushka ex Sclavus".

    Cherchez la femme

  13. #365
    Quote Originally Posted by Gentleman Travel  [View Original Post]
    When she is in America she hooks up with a Russian guy who is likely to treat her much the same as if they we back in some ghastly apartment flat beyond the ring roads of Moscow.

    C'est la vie!

    GT
    When my friends relationship soured in America with his Russian bride, the first thing she told him was that he was too nice and how good it felt when someone treated her bad.

  14. #364

    The Naturalist

    Quote Originally Posted by Stravinsky  [View Original Post]
    It's true, the Slavic female is a variety best enjoyed in its native habitat. In particular, the Post-Soviet variety has a very shallow and fragile root structure which can yield unpredictable results when transplanted outside of its own native soil.
    Thank you Professor Stravinsky, for your scientific observations and analysis of the species 'Devuska ex-Ruskie'.

    But it is a very sad story. I would have thought given the age and socio-economics of the gentleman in this case that his chances of success were good.

    I guess you can take the girl out of Russia, but cannot take the Russian out of the girl. And here I mean both the longing for cultural connection (understanding her deep Russian soul which can only be penetrated by reading impenetrable Russian literature) , but also the inbred stupid self-destructive behavior. When she is in Russia she longs for a clean, decent American man. When she is in America she hooks up with a Russian guy who is likely to treat her much the same as if they we back in some ghastly apartment flat beyond the ring roads of Moscow.

    C'est la vie!

    GT

  15. #363
    Quote Originally Posted by Stravinsky  [View Original Post]
    Jake,

    No worries, I have no intention of going over to the dark side, any more than you do. I'm just pointing out that there are different strokes for different folks.

    After all, this guy did end up winning 2 gold medals, so maybe the joke's on us? .
    Hmmm, let me think. He has two gold medals, a hot wife but lives in Novosibirsk. Damn, that's a tough one. He can probably teach snow boarding for the rest of his life but since his Russian language skills are limited, he's going to have a difficult time getting a coaching job. I dunno man. I hope he's happy.

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