Philippine politics and economics

[Omega 3]

Gavin Menzies is a fraud. The initially exciting "revelations" in his books (that made him extremely wealthy) are now recognised by scholars of history to be the output of a wonderful imagination. There is no "substantial evidence" that Zhang He ever sailed further than the well-documented routes of his 7 voyages. He certainly never circumnavigated the world or voyaged to the Americas.

Ikksman.

Thanks to Ikks, who correctly points out that established scholars of history have decried Gavin Menzies and his theories as a "fraud". Certainly, I have the utmost respect for Ikks and his posts.

Apparently, however, even established scholars of history do not dispute that Admiral Zheng He (Cheng Ho) some six centuries ago voyaged with massive flotillas from China to lands throughout Asia and as far away as Africa. These historians just dispute that Admiral Zheng voyaged to North America or circumnavigated the globe.

Actually, there are some folks who assert that Christopher Columbus never set foot in North America.

There also are some folks who would argue that much of "establishment history" itself is a fraud.

Not having been around some six or seven centuries ago, my views are certainly not dispositive of this matter. Nor, I suspect, are "established historian" views either dispositive of such matters.

At the very least, Menzies' books are, as I have previously posted, "fascinating reading" and do advance novel theories which those who actually read his books can evaluate and do with what they will.

New ideas are interesting, often fascinating. My own view is that the "establishment" is largely interested in maintaining the "status quo" and not so much interested in original ideas that may upset "established" thinking. Although by no means suggesting any similarity or applicability to the present case, I do note that history is replete with accounts of "established scholars or experts" who have summarily rejected ideas which were new or even revolutionary at the time, but which now are taken for granted.

I do note, however, that, to the extent "fake news" eventually evolves into "history", then such history should or may be viewed skeptically. Certainly, recent articles in "news" media such as, for example, the New York Times or Washington Post or The Guardian about Philippines President Duterte seem to bear little resemblance to "facts" as seem to be apparent here in the Philippines. Oddly, some of the NYT, WaPo, and Guardian articles seem to have been written by "knowledgeable" Western pundits who have no real familiarity with the Philippines or who even have not recently set foot in the Philippines.

Just one man's views.

OM.

P.S. Kudos to Westy, for his ongoing delightful sense of humor.

[Wicked Roger]

Though the US special forces are involved, it's not clear what their role is. It may be only support and logistics, and I'm not sure that any combat troops are involved. WR, you're correct in that the problem in Marawi is that the ISIS folks--.

GE.

Baes on the press and AFP, US support is technical, no boots on the ground just helping with spotting the terrorists using communication networks etc.

If the special forces were there I am hopeful the things will be eliminated faster than the SFP can manage.

[D Cups]

Does anyone have an update on the proposed new USA Military bases in the PI? I realize I could look it up but I defer to you noble researchers.

Thanks.

Though the US special forces are involved, it's not clear what their role is. It may be only support and logistics, and I'm not sure that any combat troops are involved. WR,

GE.

[MrWoolyBooly]

A good observation, though not totally accurate in this case. The ISIS morons are comprised of lots of foreigners, including Malays, Indonesians and some from Central Asia, so it's doubtful that many of the folks in Marawi would feel any strong affinity with them. Also, lots of local residents have taken to social media to speak out strongly against the terrorists, and there sees to be a significant amount of support for the AFP. Marawi before the siege was a city of about 200,000 people, so even the ISIS idiots must have known they couldn't "conquer" the town with a force of a couple of hundred people. I'm not even sure they had an objective, other than to create mindless death and destruction, which seems to be their only raison the'tre. Mainly they're a bunch of uneducated thugs following one or another egomaniac and obsessed with the promise that they'll get to paradise by dying. I hope they all get there soon.

GE.

I agree with everything you say about the Maute thugs' egomania and obsession. According to the AFP several dozen out of a few hundred Maute goons are non-Filipino. I disagree that few Filipino Muslims will consider the AFP as "guilty" when they unintentionally kill some civilians when trying to protect more from harm. There is more affinity among Muslims than we usually assume among other religions, considering themselves to be part of a single worldwide community (they use the Arabic word "ummah"). In my non-expert opinion, anywhere from 2-5% of the Filipino Muslims will instinctively suspect or blame non-Muslims for the suffering. An overwhelming majority won't, but even 2% of 200,000 is 4,000 of all ages, and that's just in Marawi. Those 4,000 are probably who the Maute gang hope to inspire to active support. They also broke out a bunch of local criminals from prison, and that probably got them a few no-hope supporters. I don't think they expected to hold territory. In Maoist military terms, they're just making their first steps into guerrilla warfare after first organizing, expecting bonus virgins in heaven if they die in the process. Maute can't win, but their nihilstic outlook will cause more destruction until it burns out from lack of support.

[GoodEnough]

As irrational as it seems to us, there is a significant minority of Filipino Muslims who would blame the government instead of Maute for any "preventable" or "avoidable" civilian deaths. This is a tribal mentality where "I support who is more closely related to me, right or wrong. " ISIS tries to rouse this type of minority to supportive action with many of their assaults outside the territory they control in what used to be Syria. Most Westerners would have a more ideological view. If a band of violent criminal thugs from my country were holed up in some provincial Malaysian city with civilian hostages, I (and most of my compatriots) would support whatever the local authorities decided in such a no-win situation.

A good observation, though not totally accurate in this case. The ISIS morons are comprised of lots of foreigners, including Malays, Indonesians and some from Central Asia, so it's doubtful that many of the folks in Marawi would feel any strong affinity with them. Also, lots of local residents have taken to social media to speak out strongly against the terrorists, and there sees to be a significant amount of support for the AFP. Marawi before the siege was a city of about 200,000 people, so even the ISIS idiots must have known they couldn't "conquer" the town with a force of a couple of hundred people. I'm not even sure they had an objective, other than to create mindless death and destruction, which seems to be their only raison the'être. Mainly they're a bunch of uneducated thugs following one or another egomaniac and obsessed with the promise that they'll get to paradise by dying. I hope they all get there soon.

GE.

[MrWoolyBooly]

It's also not clear what the ISIS morons were trying to accomplish.

As irrational as it seems to us, there is a significant minority of Filipino Muslims who would blame the government instead of Maute for any "preventable" or "avoidable" civilian deaths. This is a tribal mentality where "I support who is more closely related to me, right or wrong. " ISIS tries to rouse this type of minority to supportive action with many of their assaults outside the territory they control in what used to be Syria. Most Westerners would have a more ideological view. If a band of violent criminal thugs from my country were holed up in some provincial Malaysian city with civilian hostages, I (and most of my compatriots) would support whatever the local authorities decided in such a no-win situation.

[GoodEnough]

Though the US special forces are involved, it's not clear what their role is. It may be only support and logistics, and I'm not sure that any combat troops are involved. WR, you're correct in that the problem in Marawi is that the ISIS folks--who seem to have no qualms about killing other Muslims--are shielding themselves behind civilians and in civilian buildings, which means an aggressive response on the part of the AFP puts a significant number of civilians at risk. This puts the AFP in the untenable position of either responding aggressively and thus killing Filipino civilians, or waiting out the ISIS troops, and thus being perceived as ineffective. It's a zero sum game for those guys and it's not clear that either side has much of a game plan. It's also not clear what the ISIS morons were trying to accomplish. They knew surely that with a couple of hundred troops they could never hold on to the city, so I'm guessing it's just mindless killing and wreaking havoc that was the objective, in which case I suppose they've succeeded, though most of them died in the process.

GE.

My take is while the AFP is OK it is not proficient in dealing with a small band of people for a number of reasons GE (if so why are there still issues in the south after decades of "waging war" against them). Also the AFP should stop making promises in the press about ending the conflict (if they can do that then buy a lotto ticket!) - make them look incompetent when the deadline is passed.

Now it has US military support in terms of technical assistance and some of my friends clearly believe that if the US, UK or Aussie special forces got involved this crisis would be over much faster. But D30 is rightly keen t show that the AFP can handle and fight terrorism with his local forces and not cry for help immediately for reinforcements (IE troops on the ground).

History suggests that these armed insurgents fight dirty (hiding ammunition in mosques, using human shields) and the AFP tend to disengage when this is the case allowing the insurgents to gain some ground etc. Tbis is happening in this conflict.

This will go on for a while. The key thing is to contain it.

But I see some LP politicians still trying to stop ML there etc and again my friends say they are are just anti D30 and are doing it to try and make political capital as they are afraid some of their rich politician friends will be arrested under ML. Not sure if true but this is what many keep saying.

[Wicked Roger]

Situation in Marawi seems to continue unabated, which is a bit worrisome: https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/10/w...T.nav=top-news.

My take is while the AFP is OK it is not proficient in dealing with a small band of people for a number of reasons GE (if so why are there still issues in the south after decades of "waging war" against them). Also the AFP should stop making promises in the press about ending the conflict (if they can do that then buy a lotto ticket!) - make them look incompetent when the deadline is passed.

Now it has US military support in terms of technical assistance and some of my friends clearly believe that if the US, UK or Aussie special forces got involved this crisis would be over much faster. But D30 is rightly keen t show that the AFP can handle and fight terrorism with his local forces and not cry for help immediately for reinforcements (IE troops on the ground).

History suggests that these armed insurgents fight dirty (hiding ammunition in mosques, using human shields) and the AFP tend to disengage when this is the case allowing the insurgents to gain some ground etc. Tbis is happening in this conflict.

This will go on for a while. The key thing is to contain it.

But I see some LP politicians still trying to stop ML there etc and again my friends say they are are just anti D30 and are doing it to try and make political capital as they are afraid some of their rich politician friends will be arrested under ML. Not sure if true but this is what many keep saying.

[GoodEnough]

Situation in Marawi seems to continue unabated, which is a bit worrisome: https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/10/w...T.nav=top-news.

[Ikksman]

Those are great books, and parts of the first one should be mandatory parts of any World History course. Another good read is 1491 (Americas before Columbus), by Charles see Mann, which offers a view of pre-Columbian life that differs somewhat from the western-centric view. Grab your Kindles gents.

Gavin Menzies is a fraud. The initially exciting "revelations" in his books (that made him extremely wealthy) are now recognised by scholars of history to be the output of a wonderful imagination. There is no "substantial evidence" that Zhang He ever sailed further than the well-documented routes of his 7 voyages. He certainly never circumnavigated the world or voyaged to the Americas.

Ikksman.

[WestCoast1]

Speaking of other stories, there are several interesting books written by Gavin Menzies (entitled 1421,1434, "Who Discovered America", etc) which offer substantial evidence that Chinese Admiral "Zheng Hei", in several voyages with massive flotillas, actually circumnavigated the earth a century before Ferdinand Magellan, and discovered America nearly a century before Columbus.

Fascinating reading.

OM.

P.S. Some history books, written in English or other western languages, offer a rather western-centric view of history.

Those are great books, and parts of the first one should be mandatory parts of any World History course. Another good read is 1491 (Americas before Columbus), by Charles see Mann, which offers a view of pre-Columbian life that differs somewhat from the western-centric view. Grab your Kindles gents.

[GoodEnough]

The current analysis of the ongoing insurgency in Marawi stresses the links between ISIS and drugs, contending that ISIS receives much of its funding from drug sales, and perceived Duterte's crackdown on drugs a major threat. There's some reasonably logic to this analysis I suppose. Here's a report from CNN Philippines: http://cnnphilippines.com/news/2017/...rug-money.html.

[Omega 3]

*** The Chinese invented the compass. The West used it to explore the world while the Chinese hid behind a Great Wall. *** Ah but that is another story.

Speaking of other stories, there are several interesting books written by Gavin Menzies (entitled 1421,1434, "Who Discovered America", etc) which offer substantial evidence that Chinese Admiral "Zheng Hei", in several voyages with massive flotillas, actually circumnavigated the earth a century before Ferdinand Magellan, and discovered America nearly a century before Columbus.

Fascinating reading.

OM.

P.S. Some history books, written in English or other western languages, offer a rather western-centric view of history.

[Omega 3]

Interestingly, for what it's worth, in Forbes' 2016 listing of 10 wealthiest Filipino billionaires, 7 appear to be Chinoy taipans:

1. Henry Sy.

2. John Gokongwei, Jr.

4. Lucio Tan.

5. George Ty.

6. Tony Tan Caktiong.

9. David Consunji.

10. Andrew Tan.

The other 3 appear to be Spanish-Filipino grandees.

OM.

P.S. Hope the above names survive intact upon posting. I have "previewed" this post to verify correct spelling, but that cyber editor software program can sometimes be unpredictable!

[Member #4566]

Many recent posts on this thread have discussed the increase of Chinese in Angeles and the PI generally. However I believe that most of the Chinese tourists are not coming from mainland China but rather from Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Singapore. We may be overestimating the significance of Chinese tourism as indicating a trend in geopolitical affiliations.

The seeming pivot of DU30 towards China may reflect an implicit bargain in which the Philippines acquiesces to Chinese claims in the South China Sea in exchange for foreign aid. Thus the arrangement is as temporary as the affections of a barfined girl on Fields Avenue, "No money no honey. "

The Chinese have had a long and often sorry history in the PI. In 1603 the Chinese were massacred by the thousands in Binondo, the Chinese quarter in Manila. More recently, Ferdinand Marcos reluctantly granted citizenship to a large number of stateless Chinese whose families had been in the PI for several generations. It was not a popular move. The Filipinos have no great love for the Chinese. That being said, Chinese blood runs in many Filipinos. Corazon Aquino's maiden name, Cojuangco, is the full Chinese name (Ko Huang Ko?) of one of her male antecedents.

Some posters herein observe an increase in Chinese influence in the PI at the expense of the US. I am not observing that at all. The West is the role model of PI culture. It is as obvious as the lines of Green Card petitioners that encircle the embassy every working day. Nobody in the PI is yearning for an opportunity to make a new life in Kunming. California yes, Canton no.

Don't underestimate Yankee ingenuity. Fracking, for example, like it or not, has made the US, the largest producer of oil in the world. The Chinese invented the compass. The West used it to explore the world while the Chinese hid behind a Great Wall. The Chinese invented gun powder and used it to make fire crackers while the West. Ah but that is another story.