Philippine politics and economics

[Amavida]

This may be the first time since the overthrow of Marcos, or perhaps the first time ever that a "New York Times" Editorial has focused on the Philippines. If Duterte has accomplished nothing else, he's surely taken the country from the realm of the irrelevant--where it's languished for decades--and brought it squarely into the consciousness of people in the US. Here's the link: http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/28/op...ol-left-region.

By chance, today I ran into a couple from Davao who live in the same village that I do. She's a Filipina and her husband is, I think German. She told me that though Duterte is a friend of her family, and she knows him, she's got no idea what to make of his recent behavior.

GE.

Thanks for the link GE. We are all asking the same questions. See my post 'Duterte talks to God'. Dementia? Brain Tumour? Syphylis? Florid personality disorder?
I think AR nailed it describing him as Asia's answer to Mussolini.

[Amavida]

Correct me if I am wrong: before the election, it was unclear who would win, and the Philippines do not have a runoff system, so in a crowded field, Duterte needed well under 50% to win. Similar to Trump in the USA Primaries. Since this was no primary, but a general election, a lot of people were stunned by the outcome of Duterte with an easy win.

Here's the numbers.

http://www.philstar.com/headlines/20...official-tally

[Amavida]

You can't make this shit up.

While flying home, he said he was looking at the sky while everyone was sound asleep, some snoring, and he heard a voice that said "'if you don't stop epithets, I will bring this plane down now. ".

"And I said, 'Who is this?' So, of course, 'it's God, he said.

http://www.philstar.com/headlines/20...m-stop-cursing

[Amavida]

Don't they know the rules? Protest signs are supposed to be in English. Like "Baby Milk Factory" or "Yankee go Home".

Ha! Ha! I'll pay that one JB 😄.

[GoodEnough]

This may be the first time since the overthrow of Marcos, or perhaps the first time ever that a "New York Times" Editorial has focused on the Philippines. If Duterte has accomplished nothing else, he's surely taken the country from the realm of the irrelevant--where it's languished for decades--and brought it squarely into the consciousness of people in the US. Here's the link: http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/28/op...ol-left-region.

By chance, today I ran into a couple from Davao who live in the same village that I do. She's a Filipina and her husband is, I think German. She told me that though Duterte is a friend of her family, and she knows him, she's got no idea what to make of his recent behavior.

GE.

[Jack Burton]

They are back on the streets again. Numbers appear bigger. Everything is totally fine of course.

Don't they know the rules? Protest signs are supposed to be in English. Like "Baby Milk Factory" or "Yankee go Home".

[Jack Burton]

I think that is a very reasonable proposition R99. I wouldn't take issue with your analysis under normal circumstances. Current economic datum are presently based on Aquino government historically. Inflation figures hint at already slowing economy pre Duterte. External factors are at play additionally. Not a great time to start pissing off trade partners all in all. I'm guessing the political picture will deteriorate quicker than the available economic data.

Correct me if I am wrong: before the election, it was unclear who would win, and the Philippines do not have a runoff system, so in a crowded field, Duterte needed well under 50% to win. Similar to Trump in the USA Primaries. Since this was no primary, but a general election, a lot of people were stunned by the outcome of Duterte with an easy win.

[Jack Burton]

Let's not forget that, pending the outcomes of the November elections, the US Congress is dominated by right wing, quasi-nationalistic politicians and there are already rumblings of retaliation for the Philippines ostensible "defection. " It's not beyond the limits of possibility that part of that retaliation could involve strictly limiting the number of Filipino OFWs permitted into the country. Depending on the extent of the reduction, if it occurs, that would be devastating to this fragile economy and to the amount of foreign exchange pouring in here from the US. If the US Government decided to get really nasty, it could also put pressure on its allies in the EU and Saudi to impose similar restrictions. This may not be likely, but it is plausible and some members of the Senate a seriously pissed off.

As to contingency plans, I don't think it's time to panic quite yet though I am planning to make a quick trip to Bangkok next month to see if the waters look any more welcoming there.

GE.

The USA Congress is dominated by Rep and Dem sock puppets who would let Hillarity set her own (Neocon / war) agenda, and would fight Trump tooth and nail over any decrease in spending. Wall Street and the rest of the FIREM (financial, insurance, real estate, media) back hrc about 98-2, so the oligarchs of the USA are more in lockstep than even the Russians under Putin. D30 power base is among middle class and poor and in Mindanao, where the Muslim minority has a multi-century memory or the USA, unlike the attention span of most Filipinos and Americans.

Since the majority of OFW are Catholics, the USA tilt towards both Saudi Arabia and Iran will likely put quotas on Filipina OFW. Nurses have already been impacted, leading to people of nursing home age migrating to the Philippines in search of affordable health care, or any health care (century old shortage of nurses in the USA). China, USA and EU all have severe and growing demographic issues reminiscent of legendary Jewish growth in Egypt vs natives 3000 years ago. This will end badly, demographically. Philippines may end up being a safe haven, as Russia and USA are on target for a nuclear exchange over Syria and Ukraine. Check out ship movements and civil defense drills in Russia. As I currently live within the blast range of the #1 Russia target (central USA communications hub), I am living as poor as possible to fund migration ASAP. I'm confident I can afford to live in a bed spacer long enough to outlast the next President or two.

[Amavida]

Earlier this week I sat next to an well-spoken Filipino business owner on a flight from BKK to MNL. We discussed the USA Embassy protest debacle that happened last week. He was of the opinion that most left-wing protests in the Philippines are funded by Chinese interests. The money gets filtered down through local organizers where every link in the chain obtains a cut of the funding. He says the protesters are being compensated with transportation, food, and a stipend, which in Manila is around 300 pesos per day.

It's not my place to question the ideology of Philippine protesters. But I've lived here long enough to realize that most people won't lift a finger to do anything that involves effort without being paid for it.

With respect, I think you invalidated your own comment. Sure, the people are dirt poor, inducements are the norm. Even elections are conducted with money being, quite literally, thrown to the crowds. So putting that distraction aside, the fact remains anti western protests are recurring and apparently in larger number. This begs the question, who is is behind this and will it continue to escalate?

[Amavida]

The net widens to gambling.

So, anybody want to take bets on how long it will be before President Death gets real righteous about the poon industry? My bet, not long.

"Fifty-eight foreigners were arrested last night in Makati City for alleged involvement in online gambling and illegal drug use. ".

https://209.188.21.24/articles/2016-...ign=newsletter

[Wicked Roger]

I'm a bit more concerned about the growing anti-Western imperialism crap I'm starting to see on Facebook. I realize it's hardly a scientific sample, but I'm seeing some hostility that I've never seen (or perhaps never noticed) prior to the Duterte presidency: anger of the "gall" of the US to want to keep it's troops stationed in Mindanao for more than 2 more years; anger at having been sold "used" see 130 transports, and other minor rants the content of which I forget. This is a country in which polls alleged prior to Duterte, that approximately 92% of the population viewed the US favorably.

The bottom line for me is I remain somewhat concerned but not panicked.

GE.

When those who tell me they don't want the USA in town I point out the Chinese can come but that would a new set of rules they likely would not like LOL.

Facebook is purely silly stuff as a lot of pro D30 postings also, many also slamming the old guard LP for the state of affairs, for drugs. Some are articulate but not that many IMHO.

USA will be around for a long time IMHO, as will China, is how you play them off and keep everyone happy. Now once jobs are created etc maybe then some will quieten down. I read today they want to improve doing business in the country and cut out some of the rubbish everyone (incl GE I think goes through) but won't let go of the land ownership issues regardless.

[GoodEnough]

I have no problem considering that the protesters might have been paid; could be by the Chinese, or by local interests, or a combination of the two. Things here are often not what they seem, and almost never as they are reported, so who knows? I do hope there's no need for me to go to the Embassy soon as I don't think I'd much like to run the gauntlet, but aside from the incident during the first protest, the demonstrators appear relatively peaceful.

I'm a bit more concerned about the growing anti-Western imperialism crap I'm starting to see on Facebook. I realize it's hardly a scientific sample, but I'm seeing some hostility that I've never seen (or perhaps never noticed) prior to the Duterte presidency: anger of the "gall" of the US to want to keep it's troops stationed in Mindanao for more than 2 more years; anger at having been sold "used" see 130 transports, and other minor rants the content of which I forget. This is a country in which polls alleged prior to Duterte, that approximately 92% of the population viewed the US favorably.

The bottom line for me is I remain somewhat concerned but not panicked.

GE.

[Asian Rain]

<SNIP>He was of the opinion that most left-wing protests in the Philippines are funded by Chinese interests. The money gets filtered down through local organizers where every link in the chain obtains a cut of the funding. He says the protesters are being compensated with transportation, food, and a stipend, which in Manila is around 300 pesos per day.

It's not my place to question the ideology of Philippine protesters. But I've lived here long enough to realize that most people won't lift a finger to do anything that involves effort without being paid for it.

It would be more accurate to refer to them as "paid protesters" than professionals. In order to be professionals, they would have to have some sense of what they are actually doing. Just one look and you know they have been picked off the streets of Tondo or wherever the flip flop wearing masses congregate, where a day of free transpo, food and stipend is a godsend. For a free Jollibee spaghetti it would not matter if it was a protest over imperialism, communism, feudalism, cynicism, alcoholism, etc.

I was in Manila when they were doing the People Power XX (lost count) in Makati. I walked from the Mandarin to the Peninsula and observed the neatly parked rows of jeepneys which had trucked in the protesters. It was a remarkably efficient protest machine. The press reported it as a "genuine movement", however. Given that most journalists have the same sense when presented with a free Jollibee spaghetti, I expect the Western news outlets to pick up this latest event as complete fact and stir it up accordingly. Don't watch the show, try to see what is going on behind the curtain. Enjoy the Philippines, AsianRain.

[Keen Eye Joe]

They are back on the streets again. Numbers appear bigger. Everything is totally fine of course.

Earlier this week I sat next to an well-spoken Filipino business owner on a flight from BKK to MNL. We discussed the USA Embassy protest debacle that happened last week. He was of the opinion that most left-wing protests in the Philippines are funded by Chinese interests. The money gets filtered down through local organizers where every link in the chain obtains a cut of the funding. He says the protesters are being compensated with transportation, food, and a stipend, which in Manila is around 300 pesos per day.

It's not my place to question the ideology of Philippine protesters. But I've lived here long enough to realize that most people won't lift a finger to do anything that involves effort without being paid for it.

[Amavida]

They are back on the streets again. Numbers appear bigger. Everything is totally fine of course.