Philippine politics and economics

[Amavida]

Some pretty strong words here "the country is faced with having a mass murderer for president". I'd say it's a little late for this LOL In any event the senate hearings have gone into do nothing mode in finest Philippines tradition. Posted for your amusement.

http://www.philstar.com/headlines/20...-over-killings

[Random99]

I've just finished reading an article in today's "New York Times" indicated that on the eve of the presidential debates in the US, the two candidates are in a dead heat, raising the terrifying prospect that a true narcissistic sociopath with bad hair could actually become the next president of the US. The irony of criticizing the actions of Duterte given that the US may well elect a complete buffoon to the Presidency is not lost on me, and I realized that I'd readily swap a Duterte for a Trump any day of the week. I think I'll hold off on any criticisms of the administration here for a while as a Trump election would presage a major world catastrophe as compared to the tempest in a teapot here.

GE.

LOL, and the world thought Brexit was bad. Holy sh*t! If it's still 50-50 by election day and Trump somehow wins, the markets will tank at least 5% on Wednesday.

[GoodEnough]

I've just finished reading an article in today's "New York Times" indicated that on the eve of the presidential debates in the US, the two candidates are in a dead heat, raising the terrifying prospect that a true narcissistic sociopath with bad hair could actually become the next president of the US. The irony of criticizing the actions of Duterte given that the US may well elect a complete buffoon to the Presidency is not lost on me, and I realized that I'd readily swap a Duterte for a Trump any day of the week. I think I'll hold off on any criticisms of the administration here for a while as a Trump election would presage a major world catastrophe as compared to the tempest in a teapot here.

GE.

[Random99]

Selfishly, I hope Duterte keeps up his antics. A relatively small outflow of $300 M USD from the stock market in the past month has pushed the PHP to over 48 (a 7 year low vs the USD).

IMO, I think this drug raid is just a wag-the-dog scenario. Drugs aren't causing the poverty. Highest electric rates in Asia (higher than Japan), poor protections for foreign investors, letting the oligarchy families steal the wealth of the country etc are bigger fish to fry than drugs. It's all a smoke screen to not focus on creating a strong economic base for the country that actually lifts wages and creates jobs. If I was dictator, I'd would "request" 30% of the businesses that the families own to "donate" for the good of the country and start building the necessary infrastructure to attract real foreign investment and manufacturing jobs.

Korea was [CodeWord140] poor after the war until the late 70's / early 80's, but they laid the groundwork to become prosperous.

[Hutsori]

I also read an article yesterday that some preliminary talks have been initiated with the Russian Defense authorities regarding the possibility of purchasing military hardware from Russia.

Last part first. Is this significant? It's unprecedented because the Philippines is a recipient of US military assistance and cut-rate prices on retired Coast Guard cutters. But even S. Korea has looked beyond the US to Russia to meet certain needs as well as a negotiating tactic to get more favourable terms and technology transfer - http://www.sldinfo.com/russia%E2%80%...af-connection/.

Yesterday I saw some news about a possible trip to China, with some reasonably high level Chinese official saying that China would welcome such a visit. Today, it was announced that Duterte will shortly visit Vietnam, so maybe the President intends, as I've speculated before to reduce Philippines dependence on Western institutions and countries and to cast his lot more within the ASEAN and Asian Region.
GE.

Duterte is consistent in his inconsistency. During the campaign he pledged to hop on a jet ski, shoot off to the Chinese occupied atolls, islets, sandbars, and beat them up. In a few weeks time he'll be upset with Malaysia about Sabah. To someone who expects stability and sober, measured words from political leaders he comes off as capricious. But even the capricious can be understood by evaluating what sparks their flips and flops. Duterte is quick to take offence, and it even seems he goes looking for slights. Does anyone else here know a lot of 18-24 year-old girls like him?

[GoodEnough]

Trying to look at this objectively I give full credit to a dinosaur who survived the communist uprisings of the 80's with ruthless repression of all who stood in his way.
Duterte has long traded on the pent up frustrations of the poor with the kleptocracy but is he really an outsider? I would argue not.
It is understandable the poor buy into his personality cult but I expect much better of those better educated & occupying privileged positions.
The latest news that Duterte has now given himself another 18 months to continue his slaughter to reach his goal of 3 - 4 million dead fills me with sadness.
I'll give him this, he's street smart. He cannot be impeached because at no time has he issued a presidential driective. The PNP are acting on old directives from the previous administration.
His generosity to the Police & millitary is to say the least not unexpected for someone whose modus operandi is brutal ruthless repression of dissent.
You guys who claim to dine at the right hand of the president himself (no less) cannot be ignorant of the capital outflows that are occuring as a result of Duterte's murderous campaign?

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...rves-investors

It amuses me that when public sources of information conflist with your beliefs they are derided but when the confirm your beliefs you happily quote them.

I believe in empirical data and I don't believe I've ever argued to the contrary. Foreign investors are pulling money out of the market every day and the peso is, as one would expect falling. There's no argumennt that this isn't happening. And I believe that Duterte, when questioned about the withdrawal of foreign stock market investments basically claimed not to care as such investments neither create jobs nor alleviate the plight of the average Filipino. My desire, throughout the confusion that's ensued from all the publicly expressed disdain for the US, the EU and the UN is to try to make sense of it all, and I admit that I cannot.

Yesterday I saw some news about a possible trip to China, with some reasonably high level Chinese official saying that China would welcome such a visit. Today, it was announced that Duterte will shortly visit Vietnam, so maybe the President intends, as I've speculated before to reduce Philippines dependence on Western institutions and countries and to cast his lot more within the ASEAN and Asian Region. I also read an article yesterday that some preliminary talks have been initiated with the Russian Defense authorities regarding the possibility of purchasing military hardware from Russia.

GE.

[Wicked Roger]

Yes RK it's a public news source.

Sorry we ran out of cognac & cuban cigars at my place.

Tells US to get out of the country & vulgarly insults their president, so which is it?

http://m.scmp.com/news/asia/southeas...ampaign=buffer

If you don't like it that much why are you still there, how about you get out from the toilet and go to the USA where gun crime and random senseless acts of violence occur more often than the Philippines IMHO (no stats to prove but there are some really crazy people with guns there).

The reporting of the president said or did not say depends on what you read (as RK said in another FR) but in the end the people who voted for him seems happy. Example, was in Dubai the other week, massage at airport in transit, the pinay massage lady was full of praise and said once the drugs are sorted she may go home, airline crew all support him. You don't and you use word "slaughter" of who? Innocent bystanders of druggies who IMHO are the some of the scum of the earth (I too have friends with family involved in drugs in the country and their families are scared but also happy. Odd mix).

Why not go and live in Mexico as then you may be able to ask relatives of the 150,000 who are said to be have been killed. Many innocent. In the drug wars what they think. Now that is slaughter IMHO, a few thousand who ruin society is for many justifiable. Maybe I walk in lower circles than the rarefied atmosphere than you Amavida LOL.

[Amavida]

Yes RK it's a public news source.

Sorry we ran out of cognac & cuban cigars at my place.

Tells US to get out of the country & vulgarly insults their president, so which is it?

http://m.scmp.com/news/asia/southeas...ampaign=buffer

[Amavida]

I am surprised that you disregarded the forthcoming multi-million dollar assistance package from Australia for ARMM that is currently being negotiated, and it is likely to be expanded too. Australia is doing this with no regard for the political sideshow that is going on.

I also know that Japan is looking at increasing its aid to the Philippines in the immediate future.

In deed, Japan are falling over themselves diplomatically to cozy up to the new government showering it fulsome praise over the South China Sea legal outcome.

I have direct evidence that when cadet reporters (and experienced journalists racing to meet their deadline) don't have the facts or are too lazy to look for them, they make them up, which explains why 3 separate articles (in Phil Star, Inquirer and (shudder) Rappler) all have 3 completely different statements about something Du30 is supposed to have said about Obama. The "data" about so-called extra-judicial killings is remarkably flexible.

Even the PNP cannot make up their minds about the figures which is hardly surprising for an underfunded third world police force but let us agree the numbers are now into the thousands dead with something in the order of three quarters of a million (give or take) 'surrenderees' held prisoner at millitary camps.
No end in sight.

[Amavida]

I'm very familiar RK, as I think you know with the imminent Australian aid to the ARMM. As I recall, these funds were committed well before the Duterte Presidency. Perhaps I should have been clearer in my reference, but I was really speaking of new, as yet uncommitted aid. Like you, I've heard some rumors about substantial new Japanese aid but I've not seen anything firm published about it.

I did just see an article about an hour ago announcing that the US has just announced Php200+ million in new funding for programs to strengthen policing in the country, though no targets have been selected and no program design has yet been agreed. The speculation offered was that much of the funding might go to enhancing maritime security since the latter raises no human rights concerns and is thus non-controversial.

While it's likely true that much of the speculation expressed in these forums stems from news reports, it's equally true that some of us living here have had time to develop a small network of Filipino friends who, in some cases, do have factual knowledge that doesn't appear in the news.

GE.

Trying to look at this objectively I give full credit to a dinosaur who survived the communist uprisings of the 80's with ruthless repression of all who stood in his way.
Duterte has long traded on the pent up frustrations of the poor with the kleptocracy but is he really an outsider? I would argue not.
It is understandable the poor buy into his personality cult but I expect much better of those better educated & occupying privileged positions.
The latest news that Duterte has now given himself another 18 months to continue his slaughter to reach his goal of 3 - 4 million dead fills me with sadness.
I'll give him this, he's street smart. He cannot be impeached because at no time has he issued a presidential driective. The PNP are acting on old directives from the previous administration.
His generosity to the Police & millitary is to say the least not unexpected for someone whose modus operandi is brutal ruthless repression of dissent.
You guys who claim to dine at the right hand of the president himself (no less) cannot be ignorant of the capital outflows that are occuring as a result of Duterte's murderous campaign?

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...rves-investors

It amuses me that when public sources of information conflist with your beliefs they are derided but when the confirm your beliefs you happily quote them.

[GoodEnough]

I am surprised that you disregarded the forthcoming multi-million dollar assistance package from Australia for ARMM that is currently being negotiated, and it is likely to be expanded too. Australia is doing this with no regard for the political sideshow that is going on.

I also know that Japan is looking at increasing its aid to the Philippines in the immediate future.

These are facts.

Unfortunately, all of the speculative "debate" that appears in the preceding posts with contributors trying to outdo one another with erudition is based on newspaper reports. As a long-time resident in the Philippines, I have learned to totally disregard the material reported in ANY of the newspapers here, and instead just wait for official announcements from government-based bodies.

I have direct evidence that when cadet reporters (and experienced journalists racing to meet their deadline) don't have the facts or are too lazy to look for them, they make them up, which explains why 3 separate articles (in Phil Star, Inquirer and (shudder) Rappler) all have 3 completely different statements about something Du30 is supposed to have said about Obama. The "data" about so-called extra-judicial killings is remarkably flexible.

I'm very familiar RK, as I think you know with the imminent Australian aid to the ARMM. As I recall, these funds were committed well before the Duterte Presidency. Perhaps I should have been clearer in my reference, but I was really speaking of new, as yet uncommitted aid. Like you, I've heard some rumors about substantial new Japanese aid but I've not seen anything firm published about it.

I did just see an article about an hour ago announcing that the US has just announced Php200+ million in new funding for programs to strengthen policing in the country, though no targets have been selected and no program design has yet been agreed. The speculation offered was that much of the funding might go to enhancing maritime security since the latter raises no human rights concerns and is thus non-controversial.

While it's likely true that much of the speculation expressed in these forums stems from news reports, it's equally true that some of us living here have had time to develop a small network of Filipino friends who, in some cases, do have factual knowledge that doesn't appear in the news.

GE.

[Red Kilt]

<SNIP> As one who has spent his entire professional life managing development programs, I'll be particularly interested to see what happens to bilateral assistance levels from Australia and Japan--two of the country's largest donors--in the immediate and intermediate future. <SNIP>

I am surprised that you disregarded the forthcoming multi-million dollar assistance package from Australia for ARMM that is currently being negotiated, and it is likely to be expanded too. Australia is doing this with no regard for the political sideshow that is going on.

I also know that Japan is looking at increasing its aid to the Philippines in the immediate future.

These are facts.

Unfortunately, all of the speculative "debate" that appears in the preceding posts with contributors trying to outdo one another with erudition is based on newspaper reports. As a long-time resident in the Philippines, I have learned to totally disregard the material reported in ANY of the newspapers here, and instead just wait for official announcements from government-based bodies.

I have direct evidence that when cadet reporters (and experienced journalists racing to meet their deadline) don't have the facts or are too lazy to look for them, they make them up, which explains why 3 separate articles (in Phil Star, Inquirer and (shudder) Rappler) all have 3 completely different statements about something Du30 is supposed to have said about Obama. The "data" about so-called extra-judicial killings is remarkably flexible.

[GoodEnough]

You can find numerous historical examples of how change was imposed by outside entities.

Two points here GE.

1. You seem to be assuming that PI foreign policy has only two options: it can stay in the US's ambit of influence or it can be an unfaithful lover and court favor in other circles. Not true. It can do both. In fact a quick google finds recent examples predating DU30 of important PI agreements with Japan and other regional players.

2. Perfervid? I personally think that you can perceive fervid percentages greater than perfervid. I don't mean to perforate your persition. No body loves a jeu de mot better than I but really as an amusing aside, where does fervid end and perfervid begin? Really I like the word. I am an inveterate sesquipedalist.

I should have been more precise, and perhaps less sequipedalian, by stating that externally imposed change intended to create functional, democratic societies using Western governments as the standard paradigm have not, to my knowledge, worked. In my view, the Constitution imposed by Macarthur and subsequent iterations of that document provided a visible simulacrum of democratic governance, but the substance never materialized. Hence, as I've said before, the Philippines is more or less a Potemkin democracy; a true triumph of form over substance. Yes, one could argue that the post World War frameworks imposed on Japan and Germany worked extremely well, but this had more to do, I believe with the resolve of the population and national governments to sustain democratic change. Perhaps it also had something to do with the fact that both of these countries were well-established states for centuries prior to the war, and not entities created out of whole cloth by colonial masters.

As to foreign policy, Duterte et al probably have multiple options. But he appears to have framed the debate and he who has implied that the two choices are mutually exclusive but of course I could be wrong. I do note that despite the public call for the US military to leave Mindanao, no instructions to do so have been delivered by the Government of the Philippines to the US Government, and I'm betting that no such instructions will be issued.

It's interesting to note that USAID funding to the Philippines was cut massively for this fiscal year. I have no idea whether this was retaliation in response to recent events, or attributable to unrelated factors, but I highly doubt that the funding cuts were coincidental. USAID programs in Mindanao were especially vulnerable to the cuts and the USAID presence in the region has shrunk significantly. As one who has spent his entire professional life managing development programs, I'll be particularly interested to see what happens to bilateral assistance levels from Australia and Japan--two of the country's largest donors--in the immediate and intermediate future.

I notice that the subject of Federalism, which was a highlight of the President's campaign, hasn't been raised much in the past couple of months. Given what appeared to be a firm commitment to moving the country towards a federal structure, I'm wondering why the war on drugs has supplanted, or appears to have supplanted this movement. I've seen nothing in the news media recently addressing Duterte's intent to convoke a Constitutional Convention, to which I thought he had been committed. Maybe the notion of further decentralization of powers would be incompatible with the unilateral decision to declare a war against drugs.

Though I've not seen any official reaction from China relative to recent developments here, there was an interesting piece published recently in the "South China Post" that some of you guys might find interesting. Here's the link: http://m.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/2021971/dutertes-war-drugs-philippines-cant-hide-his-policy

As I've stated before, I have no idea what the longer-term objective of all this sound and fury is, and I doubt that there are many who do. Everything I've stated is purely inferential or perhaps pure speculation. Perhaps there is no long-term objective at all.

GE.

[Amavida]

So my question comes down to has anyone on the board personally been witness to or heard these shootings, or are they generally just incidents that one reads about in the news the next day? If they are normally just newsworthy events then at this time it seems to me that not much has really changed as far as safety for the average traveler who is not silly enough to get involved in illegal activities in a foreign country.

I know my thoughts on safety for my upcoming trip there are inconsistent, but the new president is consistently inconsistent in the way he speaks and presents himself as well. lol.

Personally I know two young people who have lost their lives for Duterte's egomaniaical gratification. One, a young woman studying from a good family whom I know personally. Falsely accused & shot dead by vigilante. No rule of law. No due process. Her family are white hot with rage, as I would be. I know his family well. The other a young bakla relative of my (Mindanao) yaya. He received word that he had been nominated for death, went into hiding but has already been killed. Shot to death, no eveidence, no rule of law, no investigation. Shot to death by vigilante. My yaya says he (like many of us in our youth) had dabbled in Weed, Alcohol, Tobacco & yes Shabu but was carrying on a normal youth & was in no way a dealer or major user of any illicit substance. This young person was known to me.

Superficiially the streets remain the same but the slaughter is climbing well into the thousands & escalating.

PNP publish figures. Link available upon request.

[Member #4566]

As you have pointed out, radical change is painful, occurs in spurts, and in the end--as we've learned at great cost in Syria, Afghanistan, Libya, Somalia and Iraq--cannot be superimposed by external forces; a point that the US and other Western powers seem never to learn.

You can find numerous historical examples of how change was imposed by outside entities. Early examples are the conversion of Syria, Afghanistan, Libya, and Iraq to Islam in the 1st millennium and the conversion of newly "discovered indigenous" people to Christianity by the Dominicans and the Jesuits in the 2nd. More recently we have the MacArthur constitution in Japan and generally the post WWII reconstruction of Europe. More on point, during the US's tenure as colonial masters of the PI, The US gave the PI republican government and the rule of law. Although these were sorely tested by Ferdinand Marcos, it was the outside influence of Mike Wallace who forced Marcos to promise on television to have elections and the rest is, as they say, history. Yippee for people power. Don't be surprised to see another populist movement arise which denounces Dirty Du30 and his murderous ways.

The thrust of the new administration to date appears to be the creation and expansion of a perfervid nationalism designed to ultimately redefine the foreign policy independence of the country, aligning its interests more with those of other ASEAN countries, engaging in dialogue with China, and drawing closer to Japan. Though such developments may alienate the United States.

Two points here GE.

1. You seem to be assuming that PI foreign policy has only two options: it can stay in the US's ambit of influence or it can be an unfaithful lover and court favor in other circles. Not true. It can do both. In fact a quick google finds recent examples predating DU30 of important PI agreements with Japan and other regional players.

2. Perfervid? I personally think that you can perceive fervid percentages greater than perfervid. I don't mean to perforate your persition. No body loves a jeu de mot better than I but really as an amusing aside, where does fervid end and perfervid begin? Really I like the word. I am an inveterate sesquipedalist.

I think it was Lee Kuan Yew and Mahatir Mohamad who most forcefully voiced the "Asian values" argument versus universal values in the 90's.

Yeah but that argument was proffered to rationalize poor records on human rights. We are not going to give our population rights because they traditionally have never had rights. We would never had stepped out a cave and built a house if that thinking prevailed.

Telling the European Union " fuck you " is most certainly a first for a (supposedly articulate) Head of State.

I didn't hear that one but it seems to corroborate the fact we are giving this guy too much credit. We are certainly over stretching trying to find a comprehensive plan behind this guy's outrageous behavior.