German FKK Clubs - Lounge and chat area

[McAdonis]

Eye-opening NYT article on the containment approaches in Asia that are effective but may not be palatable to Westerners. For instance, use of drones, offering bounties, and how fever checks and chlorinated handwashing were commonplace even before COVID-19. It also seems to suggest that strict measures need to be taken before it is too late.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/22/h...ctions-us.html

The next priority, experts said, is extreme social distancing.

If it were possible to wave a magic wand and make all Americans freeze in place for 14 days while sitting six feet apart, epidemiologists say, the whole epidemic would sputter to a halt.

The virus would die out on every contaminated surface and, because almost everyone shows symptoms within two weeks, it would be evident who was infected. If we had enough tests for every American, even the completely asymptomatic cases could be found and isolated.

The crisis would be over.

Obviously, there is no magic wand, and no 300 million tests. But the goal of lockdowns and social distancing is to approximate such a total freeze.

To attempt that, experts said, travel and human interaction must be reduced to a minimum..

[Pistons]

I now realize that I may have been overly-critical saying that Italy's lockdown was not slowing anything down. Because I looked at the numbers for China, where I believe their quarantine started January 23rd. Even with a strict and brutal authoritarian style lockdown, China's "daily new case" totals increased for 12 straight days following the ban, before a downward trend started to appear. However, China's difficulty containing the virus may have been complicated by the fact that the outbreak occured during their most important holiday period of the year, where 400 million people travel. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/china.

Once the virus was on their doorstep, Italian people's attitudes changed in a matter of ten days: https://www.businessinsider.de/inter...n-video-2020-3.

Question is just how much we can trust the Chinese figures. A math expert who was interviewed by Barrons claimed that the Chinese numbers were a 99.99% perfect mathematical model, thus completely impossible in the real world. Additionally we have seen a lot of TV news broadcasts from India, Brazil to Russia and USA claiming sulfur particle density at the crematoriums in Wuhan would suggest 10 x more dead bodies than what has been officially reported.

[Bfsie]

McAdonis,

I think that you are smart enough to understand what I wrote in my previous posts since I know you for quite a while. The following is how I explain to Mursenary:

Just wondering about your reasoning. Italy had it's worse 3 days over the weekend with over 600 deaths each day and over 5000 new cases each day. That's on day 12, 13, 14 of a lockdown where the virus's total course is usually only 14 days. Logically, infection rates should have gone down immediately, perhaps even after a week or so; instead, it has only gotten worse over time. Is it just pure optimism or am I missing something?

First all, I was replying McAdonis's argument that lockdown has no effect on slowing the spread of virus. My answer is Yes, lockdown does have effect on slowing the spread of virus.

For a hypothetical example:

If there is no lockdown, day one will have 20% increase of new infection on the basis of 6000 infected people, so at the end of day one, total infected will be 7200 (6000 + 6000 X 20%). If day two with same 20% increase, at the end of day two, total infected will be 8640 (7200 + 7200 X 20%).

If there is lockdown, day one will only have 10% (instead of 20% because of lockdown) increase of new infection on the basis of 6000 infected people, so at the end of day one, total infected will be 6600 (6000 + 6000 X 10%). If day two with same 10% increase, at the end of day two, total infected will be 7260 (6600 + 6600 X 10%).

As you can see, at the end of day two, totol number of infected people is 8640 without lockdown and 7260 with lockdown. So lockdown does slow the spread of virus even through total number of infected people still rises with lockdown.

I know what you are thinking: why still have new infections. That is because 1) measures of lockdown are still not severe enough. 2) it takes time to lower new infections to zero even if the lockdown measures are severe enough.

[McAdonis]

Maybe it starts to reverse the trend.https://us.yahoo.com/news/italy-sees...201654253.html

I now realize that I may have been overly-critical saying that Italy's lockdown was not slowing anything down. Because I looked at the numbers for China, where I believe their quarantine started January 23rd. Even with a strict and brutal authoritarian style lockdown, China's "daily new case" totals increased for 12 straight days following the ban, before a downward trend started to appear. However, China's difficulty containing the virus may have been complicated by the fact that the outbreak occured during their most important holiday period of the year, where 400 million people travel. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/china.

Yeah, did you see all the people going to the beach in Australia and the United States? They will start taking it seriously if and when people start dropping like they are in Italy (I hope not). The authorities in both countries finally did what they should have done in the beginning and officially closed the beaches, versus counting on self-indulgent people to do the right thing.

Once the virus was on their doorstep, Italian people's attitudes changed in a matter of ten days: https://www.businessinsider.de/inter...n-video-2020-3.

[Steve 9696]

Try Seeking.com. Some work is needed to find the gems, but you should try.

Yeah. In fact you can browse on SA for free and you only need to subscribe when you want to contact. So if you go look and don't see anything you like then no harm no foul. The new SA link is found under Dating Agencies way down the page. It was only started a month or two ago so you can read the whole thing pretty easily.

That said I am also happy to answer any questions if you want to PM me. Never done Germany but did browse Munich recently and it seemed a few hotties. I've had plenty of success in the US plus London and Argentina.

PM me if I can help or ask in the SA thread.

[Mursenary]

If there were no lockdowns, today's number might be 16557 (10000 more) infected cases, instead of 6557. Italy's lockdowns, IMO, definitely have slowed the spread of virus, but not enough to reverse the trend.

Just wondering about your reasoning. Italy had it's worse 3 days over the weekend with over 600 deaths each day and over 5000 new cases each day. That's on day 12, 13, 14 of a lockdown where the virus's total course is usually only 14 days. Logically, infection rates should have gone down immediately, perhaps even after a week or so; instead, it has only gotten worse over time. Is it just pure optimism or am I missing something?

[Milfotronic]

McAdonis,

I just saw this:

https://us.yahoo.com/news/italy-sees...201654253.html

I don't mean to sound provocative but am I the only one who believes the Corona virus is a bad joke by the powers that be?

[Bfsie]

McAdonis,

I just saw the following. Maybe it starts to reverse the trend.

https://us.yahoo.com/news/italy-sees...201654253.html

[Pistons]

I am all for this lockdown. The world has been under-supplied of respirators and other emergency equipment for a long time. And this effort will help on that front. In the end, it is all about lowering those spikes in cases, so the health systems doesn't completely falter.

But, this will be the new norm I fear, and we will have to start living with new and more dangerous forms of corona viruses on a more permanent basis. Simply because the virus mutates. It is already at least two different versions of this virus floating around in the same populations, and due to the global spread of this virus, and its reach, the chances of getting additional mutations also grows. And then the same person can get sick two, three, four or even more times. And we have no ideas on how dangerous these new mutations of the virus will turn out to be. The more we also close down at this early stage, the likelier we might increase people's long term awareness on certain health issues. While global, and even personal monitoring for these viruses will increase. For example, this can usher in an explosion of new devices such as IBM Watson. And then we can monitor our own health at all times, thus automate away large parts of the health related workforce. And the health sector is turning into a complete brain drain in terms of funding with people getting older and sicker. The health sector is also the largest spender on lobbying globally. Worse than oil. Worse than anything else. And it needs to stop. Doctors are overpaid too. It needs automation. Large scale! So this is a corona crisis is a complicated war. But unless we do something about it now, hundreds of millions of people might die within a year or two. So for the health sector, it could turn out to be a double edged sword. And like I said, this is just the beginning, and will be the new norm. Question is just how the world can go on living with the virus alongside it.

[Gino02]

Why this Nobel laureate predicts a quicker coronavirus recovery: 'We're going to be fine'.

https://www.latimes.com/science/stor...nobel-laureate

[Sirioja]

It is like mongering siri, men got to do what men got to do. Good luck to France and I hope the situation will calm ASAP and we be back in mongering. I can do escort here, but I am restraining my self from doing that for awhile. I am glad that I went to monger in early February.

France is very calm, sleeping, kind of spring break holidays, with economy falling.

[Sirioja]

The Italian style "national" lockdown so far has not slowed anything down. I believe the lockdown started March 8th. That day, they had 1492 new cases. Yesterday March 21st, they had 6557 new cases. Part of the problem, as you alluded to, was that people were still working. On March 20th, the Italian PM finally ordered factories to be closed.

Asian populations have experienced smaller scale outbreaks in their recent history. Their cities are also the most cramped in the world, so they fully understand how much quicker a contagion could potentially spread, if people didn't comply. Westerners attitude has thus far been different:

Regarding your comment about depressing the economy, the irony is that a country like Italy practically closes down the entire month of August every year. Sure there is a boom in the tourist sector during this period. So the Italian populace accepts the idea of slowing down everything, if they can still enjoy life. But not so much slowing down if it means staying home.

Ultimately maybe it becomes a trade-off. A country can choose to bring its economy to a halt and order 99 percent of the population to stay home for 2-6 weeks. Or at the other end of the spectrum, they can choose to be lax and hope that the virus spreads slowly. The second approach also means a large percentage of the population would be unproductive because they are at home sick coughing their lungs out for 2-4 weeks. That also assumes that workers don't contract the virus a second time within a shorter period of time.

There are explanations for catastrophe happening in Italy, second oldest population after Japan. 2 countries in one and Northern Italians moved to very poor South to return home before confined. Also problem with medical staff, but they didn't know, when Italians are usually in very close contact. Yes, Italy nearly stop on August, France nearly also, but big tourism income on Summer, but these 2 countries and also Spain will lose this big money.

[Bfsie]

Good points and suggestion. Is it OK to ask on Sugar Babes sites that I want to meet only the babes who are tested negative from the Chinese virus, with proof?

As Pessimist and Blue Swede suggested, Seeking.com is the best one for anyone living in America. But I think it is a little too late to seek sugarbabies (SB) now because many of them are also afraid of catching the virus and would be reluctant to meet new sugardaddies. I know my SBs way before the virus outbreak and now I narrowed down to 2 SBs after my rigorous interviews to make sure they don't meet other men (although almost nothing is 100% sure in life). To overcome the boredom of just doing 2 SBs regularly, I do everything you can imagine with them.

[Bfsie]

The Italian style "national" lockdown so far has not slowed anything down. I believe the lockdown started March 8th. That day, they had 1492 new cases. Yesterday March 21st, they had 6557 new cases.

If there were no lockdowns, today's number might be 16557 (10000 more) infected cases, instead of 6557. Italy's lockdowns, IMO, definitely have slowed the spread of virus, but not enough to reverse the trend.

Regarding your comment about depressing the economy, the irony is that a country like Italy practically closes down the entire month of August every year.

This is economically planned closedown, which has completely different effect on the economy from current unplanned lockdowns.

Ultimately maybe it becomes a trade-off. A country can choose to bring its economy to a halt and order 99 percent of the population to stay home for 2-6 weeks. Or at the other end of the spectrum, they can choose to be lax and hope that the virus spreads slowly. The second approach also means a large percentage of the population would be unproductive because they are at home sick coughing their lungs out for 2-4 weeks. That also assumes that workers don't contract the virus a second time within a shorter period of time.

I think that both approaches are not suitable for Western european countries and both costs are just too high. First approach: economic cost is too high and there is no guarantee that the virus would be eliminated after 4 weeks (see how long China took). Second approach: human cost is too high and death rate would skyrocket.

[Mr Ho]

No riot at all, French think they are on holidays time being paid by government, but government is now changing, asking to keep on working, and even going to work if can t work from home. I could mostly work from home, but I will have to go to show to companies I order contracts, I m with them for risks, same risks for me and at least something interesting to do. I know doctors don't agree and I understand them with their very difficult job at the moment, but our economy can t afford holidays time paid by government, France already lost tourism very important income, I read Florida should also lose 80 billions dollars, so, really need to keep on making business to make income, even will lose lives, like at war, as Macron called this virus. Sad time, but need to keep on.

It is like mongering siri, men got to do what men got to do. Good luck to France and I hope the situation will calm ASAP and we be back in mongering. I can do escort here, but I am restraining my self from doing that for awhile. I am glad that I went to monger in early February.