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07-18-19 07:09 #505
Posts: 5381Originally Posted by Smoothy [View Original Post]
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07-18-19 04:22 #504
Posts: 5381Originally Posted by Smoothy [View Original Post]
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07-18-19 04:12 #503
Posts: 5381Originally Posted by Franciscass [View Original Post]
That assumption came to a shocking halt on Sept. 29,2008. It doesn't matter that 3-4 days later Bush and his fellow Republicans came out and said, "Hey, folks, come on back! We were only kidding. We'll pass it this time, no kidding." Once panic sets in and the mob is racing for the exits, you don't reel them back in with immediate, largely improvised do-overs. Fed Chairman Paulson had been working since early 2008 on that bailout. Due diligence was baked in the market for why it was on the table for a vote and what it would likely mean. That quickly cobbled together do-over 3-4 days later, was not the same bill. Changes had been made in as much of a panic as the stock market investors running for the exits. And nobody thought this one legislation is all we'll need to pull us out of this crisis. It was merely the first one. There would be others. And more "shenanigans" when their time came? No thanks. I'm OUT.
It required a complete change in the political make-up of the Federal Government, replacing the one party well known throughout decades and decades of history for presiding over major economic declines and stock market crashes with the one that is as well known for pulling us out of them. In fact, the "shenanigans" did not even end from that former side. At virtually every step of the follow up measures required to pull us out of the Great Recession and get the stock market back on track for historic gains, the "shenanigans" side slow-walked, obfuscated, delayed, denied, blocked and obstructed them. It is one of the reasons this particular Dem recovery from a Rep decline was slower than the others. So, in a very real sense, the mob that ran for the exits in a panic starting Sept. 29,2008 and did not believe the calls to "come back, everything will be ok" 3-4 days later had it right as long as the Federal Government was in that side's control.
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07-17-19 15:21 #502
Posts: 1222Originally Posted by Smoothy [View Original Post]
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07-17-19 14:32 #501
Posts: 3497Originally Posted by EihTooms [View Original Post]
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LMzJsw3eFRQ
CNN fake Muslim protests.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B1gR37Wwakw
Top 4 reasons CNN is called fake news.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=igfW_ogd0ZM
Top 10 fake news of 2016.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=REPFH2V_EYo
How about the current one where the Dems are calling Trump a racist?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sCkt57w3Uu0
ABC fakes crime scene.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-YwIkknxE8E
This one just makes me laugh since Don Lemon is such a hypocrite.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LulNAEeTsrc
NBC blows up truck for fake news story.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7fslEpQGw0M
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07-17-19 09:52 #500
Posts: 1222Originally Posted by Smoothy [View Original Post]
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07-17-19 09:50 #499
Posts: 1222Originally Posted by EihTooms [View Original Post]
I do accept markets are at times driven just as much by physiology as fundamentals and I agree the September 29th shenanigans in the house did not help but that said the bill was passed 4 days later.
I guess you are saying that delay made all the difference to what followed. Possible I suppose but in my opinion unlikely and so I stand by my contention and the commonly accepted explanation of the crash of '08 '09 being caused by a housing crisis that first began to appear back in 2006.
At a bare minimum I think you have to agree that had there not been this housing crisis in the first place there would have been no need for a TARP making whether it passed on Sept 29th or Oct 3rd irrelevant.
If not then ET let's agree to disagree.
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07-17-19 05:51 #498
Posts: 5381Originally Posted by EihTooms [View Original Post]
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07-17-19 05:37 #497
Posts: 5381Originally Posted by Smoothy [View Original Post]
The unemployment rate reached and fell below 6% in less than half the time under Obama than Mitt Romney promised his (Mitt's) policies would get it there in his 2012 presidential campaign bid. That is essentially the rate the Fed had established as being "Full Employment" for this era, when we historically begin to see more jobs available than applicants to take them and wage inflation becomes a risk. It was in December 2015, a few months after Donald Trump first announced his run for the presidency when almost no one predicted he would be the Republican nominee much less the president.
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07-17-19 05:17 #496
Posts: 5381Originally Posted by Franciscass [View Original Post]
The stock market remained largely out of a Bear for months, almost a year during the revelations that the banks, rating agencies, regulators and, most importantly, Bush's Office of Thrift Supervision were not doing their job. It was stubbornly holding on within Correction territory through a whole slew of disastrous news and venerable investment institution collapses. The S&P 500 Index only fell about 3.5% on the news of Lehman Bros. declaring bankruptcy around Sept. 15 of 2008 and rebounded into Correction territory over the next few days on the assumption that America had learned and knew how to avert a Great Depression and was about to do the first most important thing in keeping bank's doors open when they passed the first TARP, scheduled for a vote two weeks later.
The world of stock market investors naturally assumed no Party could be idiotic enough to repeat the mistakes Republicans made back in 1929. But then that handful of House Republicans shocked the world by pulling that last minute political stunt, TARP failed to pass and the panic selloff promptly began, proving the world wrong. The S&P 500 Index fell about 8% that day and kept falling for weeks and months afterwards, no bounce back, not even a dead cat bounce.
Based on the behavior of the market leading up to that fateful day, it is very likely the stock market would have recovered quite nicely, perhaps even soared and never entered serious Crash/Bear Market territory had that initial TARP legislation passed on Sept. 29,2008.
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07-17-19 04:20 #495
Posts: 3497Originally Posted by Franciscass [View Original Post]
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07-17-19 03:37 #494
Posts: 1222Originally Posted by DCups [View Original Post]
The responsibility properly rests with the banks, the rating agencies and the asleep at the wheel regulators.
As a matter of record not opinion a comparison of stock market performance for similar periods of the Obama and Trump presidencies show from inauguration and May 31st of their third year under Obama the S&P was up 56.4% Dow Jones Average was up 50.6% and the Nasdaq 92.9%. For Trump the numbers are 21.4%, 25.2% and 34.2%.
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07-17-19 02:53 #493
Posts: 5381Originally Posted by DCups [View Original Post]
But it finally gave way and crashed demonstrably into Bear territory beginning on the afternoon of September 29, 2008, in response to a handful of House Republicans suddenly reneging on their already "whipped" Yes votes needed to pass the original TARP, causing it to fail to pass. According to them, they did that because their feelings were hurt by something rather ordinary and innocuous then Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi said that morning before the vote. I am not joking about that.
It was that particular straw on the camel's back that triggered a massive panic selloff that sent worldwide markets crashing and our economy into paralysis on the reasonable assumption that the then current Republican influence in government left America without the political will and smarts to do what was necessary to avert another Great Depression. Indeed, that little stunt to cause the original TARP to fail passage looked very much like the exact wrong moves Herbert Hoover and his fellow Republicans made in response to their Crash in 1929 that exacerbated and deepened the Great Depression.
From that afternoon on, the USA stock market would not find a floor and begin to recover until the Republican presence and influence was switched in the White House and tilted more toward Democrats in Congress and their first major economic recovery legislation was passed with practically no Republican votes.
What followed was the longest uninterrupted economic recovery and Bull Market in USA history. Even better than the previous Dem recoveries from Republican economic downturns or crashes under FDR, JFK / LBJ, Carter and Clinton. Obama's was even better and, considering the near unified Republican opposition to his and the Dems' efforts to pull us out of yet another in a long list of major Republican downturns over the past 85-90 years, I would say a more impressive accomplishment than those as well.
Btw, there was no Crash in 2009. Only a continuation of the panic selloff Crash that began on September 29, 2008 until about March 9, 2009, a couple of weeks after that American Recovery and Reinvestment Act was signed and passed.
I don't believe there has been a >20% decline/Crash triggering a Bear in the USA stock market with a Dem in the White House since before FDR. Beginning with Herbert Hoover roughly 90 years ago, Crashes or Bear markets have all begun under Republican presidents. That trend might even go back to 1907 under Teddy Roosevelt.
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07-17-19 02:06 #492
Posts: 5381Originally Posted by DCups [View Original Post]
Recommending we quickly change the subject to pussy doesn't exactly refute what is cited in detail in those links or prove they report "Fake News", which I assume was your intention, but instead looks a wee bit like even you know you cannot do that.
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07-17-19 00:56 #491
Posts: 3244Originally Posted by Franciscass [View Original Post]