Thailand Lounge and Chat area

[EihTooms]

Over 15 trillion in negative yielding bonds, an inverted yield curve and record low thirty years. It has to signify something.

Even Trump is getting the wind up and backing down on the scale of tariffs on Chinese imports under the laughable guise of not wanting to be the grinch that spoiled Christmas.
...

Explaining his cave on initiating those tariffs, in the course of one minute he suggested he did not want to make it tough for American consumers during the Christmas season AND repeated a favorite lie about how great it is that the $60 Billion added to America's coffers from the tariff taxes so far was put there by China and not the American consumer.

Huh?

B-B-But if China is the one paying the tariff taxes instead of American consumers, wouldn't it be a wonderful Christmas gift FOR Americans to initiate those tariffs ASAP? Hey, I'd be happy with another $60 Billion added to America's coffers by China. Why not? Unless, oh no, it turns out that isn't how it would get there after all.

Either he hasn't got a clue what he is talking about or he is certain his supporters would never have a clue what he is talking about. Or both.

[Franciscass]

Over 15 trillion in negative yielding bonds, an inverted yield curve and record low thirty years. It has to signify something.

Even Trump is getting the wind up and backing down on the scale of tariffs on Chinese imports under the laughable guise of not wanting to be the grinch that spoiled Christmas.

What's all this got to with the price of a shag? Nothing I guess but who knows.

My gut tells me while those at the high end are still doing fine it's getting tougher for most girls to make a living.

A recent visit to Cowboy makes me feel business is way down.

As we know the normal supply and demand principle affecting price doesn't necessarily follow in Thailand's P4P.

Quite the opposite.

Fewer punters, no problem, increase margins by jacking up the prices.

Well maybe not going to work this time.

[EihTooms]

As the attached chart clearly shows, Obama's economic recovery was the weakest in the last 75 years or longer. One of the things I really dislike about Obama is that by 2010 HE KNEW HIS ECONOMIC POLICIES WERE NOT WORKING ie the recovery was not as robust as it should have been/could have been and instead of listening to his honest critics that he should lighten up on his government economic restrictions (executive orders) and lower the cost of investment in the private sector, Obama doubled down on his neo Keynesian policies and he began to play the race card in order to stay in office. IMHO he is a very bad man although I admit that he is also a very shrewd master politician. The fanatical left wing group think insanity that we see among all the Democratic politicians running for President in America today owe a lot to President Obama's successful tactic of divide and conquer along racial & ethnic lines, although none of them measure up to his political abilities.

Surely you are not suggesting that the only spectacular recovery from the three Great Republican Depressions/Recessions cited on that chart (1933,1982 and 2009), the one stewarded by FDR and his overwhelmingly Dem Majority House and Senate beginning in 1933 (the other two are not even significantly different from each other by comparison), should have been the model Obama followed for his recovery from a Great Republican Depression/Recession.

Good lord. FDR was gifted by the 1932 electorate with a huge Dem Majority in the House and at one point as many as 75 actual Dems in the Senate out of a possible 96 Senate seats beginning in 1933. That was a total turnaround in Party control after 10 years of across the board Republican rule in the federal government bent on driving us into that colossal Depression.

And at that time they had been using the same "brilliant" Republican economic philosophy and agenda they applied in 1981-1982 and 2001-2008, requiring those historic Dem recoveries as well. Oh, and the same ones Trump and his fellow Republicans are applying to the economy right now, BTW.

Obama never had a single hour of a single day as president with 60 real Dems in the Senate, the minimum Senate votes required to produce a cloture vote to even put a proposal and bill on the table for consideration. That being the case and considering the Repubs had decided there was something "different" about this particular middle aged Christian male in the White House (gee, I wonder what that could have been?) that gave them licence with their base to block, thwart and slow-walk his and the Dems every effort to pull us out of it, Obama's recovery from that particular Great Repub Depression/Recession was more impressive than FDR's.

After all, in addition to his massive advantage in having that overwhelming Dem Majority Congress, especially in the Senate, FDR didn't come into office on day one to tackle and recover us from that Great Repub Depression while we were also waging 3 poorly managed quagmire wars in Afghanistan, Iraq and against something amorphous and potentially worldwide by the name of "terror".

[GDreams]

As the attached chart clearly shows, Obama's economic recovery was the weakest in the last 75 years or longer. One of the things I really dislike about Obama is that by 2010 HE KNEW HIS ECONOMIC POLICIES WERE NOT WORKING ie the recovery was not as robust as it should have been/could have been and instead of listening to his honest critics that he should lighten up on his government economic restrictions (executive orders) and lower the cost of investment in the private sector, Obama doubled down on his neo Keynesian policies and he began to play the race card in order to stay in office. IMHO he is a very bad man although I admit that he is also a very shrewd master politician. The fanatical left wing group think insanity that we see among all the Democratic politicians running for President in America today owe a lot to President Obama's successful tactic of divide and conquer along racial & ethnic lines, although none of them measure up to his political abilities.

You forget that most of the time Obama was dealing with a Republican Congress that basically opposed him on every economic measure he wanted to take. Trump handed out a huge tax break for the rich and it lasted a whole 12 months. Now growth is back to 2% with many indicators pointing to recession. No rational person would think that you should be expanding deficits when employment is high and you are getting sustained growth. This is a guy who sent 6 companies to bankruptcy, defrauded thousands of contractors and consumers and only stayed solvent through tax evasion and money laundering. Trump is toxic, just look at the Staff turnover and what they say about him.

[Member #4698]

As the attached chart clearly shows, Obama's economic recovery was the weakest in the last 75 years or longer. One of the things I really dislike about Obama is that by 2010 HE KNEW HIS ECONOMIC POLICIES WERE NOT WORKING ie the recovery was not as robust as it should have been/could have been and instead of listening to his honest critics that he should lighten up on his government economic restrictions (executive orders) and lower the cost of investment in the private sector, Obama doubled down on his neo Keynesian policies and he began to play the race card in order to stay in office. IMHO he is a very bad man although I admit that he is also a very shrewd master politician. The fanatical left wing group think insanity that we see among all the Democratic politicians running for President in America today owe a lot to President Obama's successful tactic of divide and conquer along racial & ethnic lines, although none of them measure up to his political abilities.

[EihTooms]

Trump and tax are very uninteresting to non Americans like me I guess. However yeh these posts have to go somewhere, for us to skip reading them.

You and anyone else who finds those topics very uninteresting and skip reading them can also skip commenting on them. Really. We won't miss it.

[Syzygies]

Admin moved these discussions to this thread. So I'm guessing they do belong here.

Trump and tax are very uninteresting to non Americans like me I guess. However yeh these posts have to go somewhere, for us to skip reading them.

[Franciscass]

Bullshit. My wallet is fatter due to Trump's tax plan. That's the most important to me economically. (and the stock market is still soaring, so what's to complain about these days? nothing)

I paid 3,000 usd less tax this past year under Trump's tax plan than I did with Obama's. That's 3 grand more I can spend. Bottom line.

Smoothy old chap a 3000 cut means you were already doing more than ok not necessarily in the top 1% but definitely not short of coin to meet your needs.

The problem with the tax cut as has been explained ad nauseam was it had minimal effect on the majority of Americans as most of it was directed at corporations and the top 20% of taxpayers who were already doing just fine under loopholes such as the earned interest tax credit.

Supply side economics argues tax cuts more than pay for themselves. Lots of economists question this theory. It's complicated and depends on how the cuts are distributed but what is not in doubt is that the Trump cuts after a initial sugar high have done little for demand (other than Smoothy spending all of his 3 K) but has had a negative impact on Debt to GDP which is heading towards 110%.

I don't hate anybody but denigrating people as Trump haters as if this is somehow a mental abnormality always amuses me. Of course there are people who hate Trump and what he stands for. They value compassion, honesty, tolerance and inclusiveness. To be honest for me it's the Trump lovers who need to examine their values.

[Franciscass]

For anybody interested, my experience Thursday last getting extension of temporary stay based on retirement at Chang Wattana.

Background. I have lived in the same apartment I purchased some 20 years back. For a period I wasn't here all year round and got by on extensions, visa runs and broker's services. When I hit 50 I got a retirement visa extending it yearly since.

For the first time ever today the TM 30 was required. Even as an owner it's required. Anticipating the possibility had all the docs with me, title and accompanying paperwork. Got the TM 30 but paid 800 baht fine because I hadn't filed it within 24 of moving in all those 20 years ago. I kid you not. Judging by the number of 800 bahts they were raking in its a huge huge earner.

My advice. Make sure you have a copy of notification of filing TM 30 from the owner if you are renting. If it's your pad and you haven't filed bring the docs and you can file on the spot. Counter G. Extremely busy. Bring a book or whatever gets you through boredom.

Speed of service, all told 6 hours including reentry permit. 10 30 to 4 30 with a lunch break from 12 to 1.

[EihTooms]

That would be the bottom line to most tax payers. 47%ers did not get a tax cut. I will agree that things are getting done, crass mouth and all.

The problem with anecdotal testimonials is I could say I paid about $900 less in taxes for last year than the year before, but my property values dropped about $60,000 as well. Then I ought to be on this thread shouting that Trump's economy has been a total disaster, an utter failure, run for your lives! But I know my case is merely anecdotal and not reflected in the general economy. Although I suspect there is a lot more of that kind of trade-off happening than Trump supporters are willing to admit.

See how the incomes of farmers have been doing in the Trump economy. He's cutting them welfare checks to make up for their deep losses thanks to his trade war. The "cash gift" from that tax bill was so minor and went so unnoticed across the country, Trump in a panic suddenly announced a non-existent "Middle Class Tax Cut!" would be enacted in the two weeks before the 2018 mid-term elections in hopes of reducing the thumpin' he and his party got. Which of course never happened since Congress wasn't even in session anymore at that point in time. That "Middle Class Tax Cut!" still hasn't happened AFTER those mid-term elections either. lol.

A "soaring" stock market? The USA Stock market as measured by the S&P 500 Index is up only 27% since Trump took office. Divided by 2.6 years, that produces an annualized return of 10.38%, no more than the average annual return the USA Stock market has produced since that measure started being taken back in 1926. And it is notably less than the 22.75% per year average annual gain logged in under Obama from the day he took office until Trump took over. And, yep, that is even when you apply those deep losses in the market for the first couple of months to him and not to Bush. Which isn't even fair to Obama's economic record.

I'd happily trade my $900 reduction in taxes and anybody else's $3000 reduction in taxes for an annual average 22.75% increase in my stock portfolio over the past couple of years instead of a measly 10.38%. Trust me, that's worth a LOT more to me than $3,000 or even many times that amount. Not even counting the property value losses.

[EihTooms]

Bullshit. My wallet is fatter due to Trump's tax plan. That's the most important to me economically. (and the stock market is still soaring, so what's to complain about these days? nothing)

I paid 3,000 usd less tax this past year under Trump's tax plan than I did with Obama's. That's 3 grand more I can spend. Bottom line.

Anecdotal only. That is simply not reflected in the general economic data. The stock market is not "soaring". Unless by "soaring", you mean making smaller average percentage gains per year under Trump than Obama's average annual gains even if you apply the deep losses in the market he inherited from Bush.

A poorly trained chimp could have put an extra $3,000 in your income tax returns with a massive tax cut. Massive tax cuts are NOT the same as "economic results."

[Dg8787]

Bullshit. My wallet is fatter due to Trump's tax plan. That's the most important to me economically. (and the stock market is still soaring, so what's to complain about these days? nothing)

I paid 3,000 usd less tax this past year under Trump's tax plan than I did with Obama's. That's 3 grand more I can spend. Bottom line.

That would be the bottom line to most tax payers. 47%ers did not get a tax cut. I will agree that things are getting done, crass mouth and all.

[Smoothy]

It just isn't as good on almost any important economic measure

Bullshit. My wallet is fatter due to Trump's tax plan. That's the most important to me economically. (and the stock market is still soaring, so what's to complain about these days? nothing)

I paid 3,000 usd less tax this past year under Trump's tax plan than I did with Obama's. That's 3 grand more I can spend. Bottom line.

[EihTooms]

...

Btw, in another example of lazy Main Stream and financial media, I see those charts appear to credit those particular upticks to the November 2016 election result. But I see no mention that a 2.3% GDP growth rate for 2017 was already projected by the Congressional Budget Office months before that election and on the assumption that no new major economic law or legislation would be passed. Which is exactly what happened in 2017; no new major economic legislation was passed until the last week of the year and the U.S. economy was therefore still moving on the economic legislation that was in place prior to the election.

With Trump's magnificent presence in the White House? Oops. It looks like 2017 came in UNDER the CBO's already (made in early/mid 2016) projected 2.3% GDP growth rate for 2017 and came in at 2.2% instead. Another UNDER performance from the economy handed to him for Trump.

I like to correct the numbers if my memory is off by much. So, for those who might not even know periodic non partisan Congressional Budget Office economic projections are "a thing", these are good sources to know about:

An Update to the Budget and Economic Outlook: 2016 to 2026
August 23, 2016
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/51908

...
Economic Growth
In real terms (that is, with adjustments to exclude the effects of inflation), GDP rose at an annual rate of 1.0 percent in the first half of calendar year 2016. However, CBO expects that the economy will expand more rapidly in the coming months, with GDP growing by 2.0 percent over the whole of 2016 and by 2.4 percent in 2017 mainly because the major forces restraining the growth of investment, such as a decline in oil prices, have begun to subside (see figure below). Economic growth is expected to slow in 2018 and fall below but remain close to the growth of potential (maximum sustainable) GDP in 2019 and 2020. Most of the growth in output during the coming years will be driven by consumers, businesses, and home builders, CBO anticipates.

Mind you, these projections can only be done on the assumption that no new law or economic legislation is passed in the interim. Once a new, major economic law is passed, all projections change accordingly.

So, in August 2016, months before the November election, the projection was for a 2.4% Real Growth rate in GDP for 2017. Since Trump spent that entire first year doing nothing but playing golf, thinking up insulting nicknames for his critics, tweeting hateful, divisive directives to his slavish supporters and eating buckets of KFC at Midnight (similar to his second and third year so far), no new economic legislation was passed until the last week of 2017.

Actually, even though there is no chance in the world Trump knew these kinds of routine, periodic and largely accurate projections by the CBO were "a thing", I have no doubt that Moscow Mitch McConnell, the Repub Senate Majority Leader, knew all about them. Therefore, it was probably his idea to slow-walk and delay any economic legislation on the table to be passed by them until AFTER they locked in that projected 2.4% Growth rate for that first year of the Trump presidency that was already handed to them by Obama since it was quite likely to be higher and less costly than anything his Majority and Trump could produce anyway. And they could then take credit for it as far as low information voters were concerned.

Eventually, this was the actual Real GDP Growth rate for 2017:

https://www.google.com/search?q=Real+GDP+growth+for+the+USA +economy+for+2017&oq=Real+GDP+growth+for+the+USA +economy+for+2017+&aqs=chrome. 69 i57.22429 j1 j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8.

2.3% annual change (2017)

I just wanted to correct my earlier memory of 2017's Real GDP Growth Rate coming in at 2.2% under Trump's nothingness that year vs the 2.3% that was projected by the CBO long before the election. The actual numbers were that it came in at 2.3% Real Growth vs the projected 2.4%. And I thought it might be useful for everyone here to know those kinds of projections exist.

[John Clayton]

Who said this discussion doesn't belong in this thread? I mean, unless Smoothy's post and yours were just now moved from another thread to this one, which I haven't seen was the case unless I missed it.

Admin moved these discussions to this thread. So I'm guessing they do belong here.

Are Smoothy and Eihtooms the same person? I have noticed Eihtooms is backwards Smoothie. Thank you in advance, and sincerely Notyalc Nhoj.